CrappyGraphs has nothing to do with real estate (though it could have real estate statistics applications. . .)

If however, you’ve got a little geek and/or engineer in you, there are some hilarious graphs to be found. I spent way too many years in Corporate America viewing umpteen thousand line graphs and really bad Venn Diagrams. I wish CrappyGraphs had been around then.

You can even make your own CrappyGraph! (warning: it is addicting, so be careful!)

Here’s one I just created, moments after deleting the daily hundred or so spam comments that this blog seems to collect:

Go ahead, give it a whirl!

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Last week, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co released its Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index, which ranks the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years.

The bad news? The Phoenix real estate market has (according to PMI) a 79.6 percent probability of home prices declining over the next two years. This places Phoenix at #11 (and be glad you’re not in Riverside-San Bernadino–Ontario California which sports a whopping 95.5% Risk Index…).

The good news? That’s down from an 82.3% chance in Q4 2007. Overall, 35 of the nation’s 50 largest MSAs and 326 out of all 381 MSAs experienced a decline in Risk Index since Q4 2007. In other, more cheery words, there seems to be less risk of home price declines than when last analyzed in late 2007.

Interestingly, Phoenix and Las Vegas were the only “high risk” MSAs to show a decline in Risk Index. California in fact showed an increased risk in 25 of their 28 MSAs. Ouch.

Of note: Phoenix continues to show a very low unemployment rate (3.67% in this report). High employment levels (or conversely, low unemployment rates) are generally considered a positive economic indicator and bode well for housing demand.

This is an interesting report, jammed full of data. The data is also summarized nicely, though they do say things like this:

But the picture of home price performance changes significantly if the 59 MSAs located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from the total.

Statements like that are just beyond stupid. Of course things change significantly if you simply ignore 59 MSAs in the four hardest hit states. My college stats professor would be wanting to squish the numbskull that wrote that nugget. 

Here is a list of the Top 14 MSA’s with the greatest risk of declining home prices:

Linkage:

Here is the press release.

The entire Economic Real Estate Trends report in PDF format is available — Chart-o-holic alert!

And finally, here is the appendix listing the Risk Index for all 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. 

Go forth and absorb your daily dose of real estate statistics.

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From The Zonie Report comes this story. . .

APACHE JUNCTION — An Apache Junction Homeowners Association is facing stiff penalties and a discrimination charge from the lawsuit of a local property owner who found her handicap van towed from in front of her home.

Sharon Turley claims the Arizona Goldfield Homeowners’ Association discriminated against her by not making “reasonable accommodations” for her disabilities and violated state law by not providing proper notice and opportunity to be heard before towing the van.

HOA officials first said they would respond to the situation in a meeting scheduled to be held the following month.

Alas, said meeting never happened.

Meanwhile, Ms. Turley’s van is racking up holding lot fees of $15/day and the owner of the lot is saying the van will be sold soon if it is not retrieved.

It seems that it’s well past time for this HOA to remove its head from a particular body orifice and do the right thing. That would of course be pay for the van to be returned to Ms. Turley and amend their CC&Rs to allow for the parking of the van.

There are, of course, two sides to every story. And I’d sure love to hear the HOAs rationalization of this one.

HOAs, properly managed and with the right Board of Directors, can do great things for a community. However, if they are mismanaged, or managed with a complete lack of common sense and civility, then they can swiftly spiral out-of-control, and bone-head decisions can prevail.

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Enter the Garbage Guy. We’d never worked with them so we just took a shot.

We were so pleased with their service that they immediately were enshrined on our “preferred vendor list” and I asked Robert Allen, the owner of Garbage Guy, to answer a few questions for our readers. . .

“What kinds of services does Garbage Guy offer?”

We are a full-service JUNK Removal company.  We offer removal of appliances, old furniture, junk, or yard debris for homeowners and businesses.  We also offer specialized services to realtors, investors, property managers, and banks dealing with REO properties.

We do Trash-outs!  That doesn’t just mean we come by and haul away piles of stuff by the curb.  We gather, we load,  we haul away – and sweep up after ourselves.  We assess removal needs at a property and provide prompt estimates for banks or management companies including ‘before photos’ of debris to be removed.  Once approved, we remove all interior and exterior debris, leaving the property vacant and clean-swept.  ‘After photos’ are then provided with the invoice to verify the work was completed professionally.    We can also provide a cleaning estimate and subcontract cleaning services if a sales clean is required for a vacant property as part of the sales process.  A sales clean includes all flooring, kitchen and bath surfaces, fixtures and appliances, and inside windows.  

In the real estate world, JUNK gets in the way.  It cramps space in even the largest properties – making them seem smaller.  Garbage Guy is the superhero of Space Reclamation – helping homeowners de-clutter in preparation to list or show a property.   We also help during the move – taking away items they don’t want to take with them to the new property.  Finally, after the move, we take away stuff left behind by former owners and the mountain of moving boxes that would take weeks or months to feed into the small residential dumpster at the curb.  

Garbage Guy also provides services to handymen and remodelers.   We offer a self-loading dumpster – using our truck or trailer, we gather, load, and haul away the construction debris from a kitchen or bathroom remodel or other construction project.  This saves homeowners from driveway scars caused by a dumpster drop, or from becoming a magnet for OPG (other people’s garbage).  Dumpsters are easy targets for couches, swingsets, and big screen TV boxes and an eyesore according to some HOAs. 

In short – if it isn’t toxic or hazardous and we can lift it – we’ll haul it away!  We take it out so YOU don’t have to!

“Tell us a little about how/why you started Garbage Guy.”
 
I was a regional manager in an international software company and traveling too much.  I considered entering the real-estate fix-and-flip market and looked at a lot of JUNK-Filled houses.  However, the 10% per month appreciation and bidding wars (12 offers first day) kept me from buying any homes.  I couldn’t stomach the negative cash-flow ‘what if.’  After looking at a lot of trashed houses, I realized –someone has to clean them out.  I took a major career detour and became that someone.

“So – is this better than software?”

I love what I do.  People are always glad to see me, they love what we do for them, and the immediately visible results are very rewarding. 

See the bio on our website for more.

This page also has a coloring page for kids… left hand column.

“What are some of the advantages, and disadvantages of being a small businessman in Phoenix?”

Phoenix is huge – and growing every day.   All those people have junk to get rid of.   I don’t think we will ever run out of work to do as we clean up the world – one property at a time.  People here are friendly, easy-going, and appreciate quality work.   I love meeting and interacting with people of varied backgrounds and interests. 

Disadvantages?   Sure is HOT outside right now (and we meet some nasty critters under junk sometimes).  This one is quickly countered by the BENEFIT of working outside in the winter.

“What is the biggest or nastiest mess you’ve ever cleaned up?”

Biggest – 93,000 pounds of gravel, cinderblock, and concrete debris (we don’t do those anymore without a tractor)   Nastiest – tie between the vacant place trashed and lived in by vagrants for months or years before renovators took it over and the cat-urine soaked carpeted place we could hardly breathe in.   There are lots of horror stories about what a refrigerator looks like after a month without power in August, or how bad some renters treat property when they are going to be evicted- but you’ll have to use your imagination.  Better yet – take a look at our photo gallery for some of the biggest messes fit for public viewing

“Why should people choose Garbage Guy?”

We are cheaper than the other guys – usually by at least $100 on a large load.  We save you time and money over renting a truck or dumpster and doing the work yourself.   You get the space back, the junk gone, and you don’t have to lift a finger except to dial the phone and point at what you want removed.  We take it out so YOU don’t have to.

Thanks Robert for some insight into you and your company!

If you’re in the Phoenix (or Salt Lake City) area and you need junk removal services, call Garbage Guy. Robert and his crew are polite, prompt and hard working.

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Affordabilty in this case means what percentage of homes sold are affordable by a median-earning household.

The Phoenix real estate market affordability came in at 30% in 2007. That number is now up to 60%, ranking Phoenix at #3.

For the nay-sayers, it’s not just housing price declines that lead to greater affordability. Increased buying activity can be a factor, influxes of first time home buyers (who tend to buy less expensive homes), and a relatively stable local economy all come in to play.

Yes, many of the markets listed below have been hammered hard. But increasing affordability is a good thing and a nice step toward helping stabilize and correct the housing market. 

Here is the Forbes article on home affordability.

And here are the “Top 10” increasingly affordable real estate markets:

1. Las Vegas, NV
2. Sacramento, CA
3. Phoenix, AZ
4. Washington, D.C.
5. Tampa, FL
6. Providence, R.I.
7. Riverside, CA
8. Orlando, FL
9. Boston, MA
10. San Diego, CA

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It’s also frequently provides insight into the minds of home buyers, sellers and real estate agents.

Here was a recent question from “Todd”, a “Home Buyer in Arizona”:

I am trying to buy a house from a FSBO and we have agreed on a price and agreed to buy as is. After an inspection, I don’t want to pay that much can I send an addendum to see if they will lower the price or should I cancel the contract and then send a new contract for the lower price taking into account the inspection items? Thanks.

It would appear Todd is an “unrepresented buyer” — meaning he has decided to not use the services of a real estate agent. And Todd is attempting to buy a home from an “unrepresented seller”, a “FSBO” — For Sale By Owner.

So we have both sides of a real estate transaction going it alone, both deciding for whatever reason that they do not need the services of a real estate professional.

I do find it curious that Todd, who ventured off on his own, is now seeking free advice from real estate professionals as he finds his real estate deal beginning to swirl down the drain.

The problem is, no matter how many agents think (for whatever bizarre reason) that they will somehow secure Todd’s business, no one can possibly answer his question.

Why? Because we haven’t seen the contract between these unrepresented parties.

Oh, several agents have answered assuming the standard Arizona Association of Realtors Residential Resale contract was used. An interesting assumption given that no Realtors are involved in the transaction. Even more interesting when one considers that anything in the AAR contract form can be modified.

Did Todd and Mr./Ms. FSBO take a quick trip to OfficeMax and pick up a “real estate contract”? Maybe they went online and found one. Maybe they wrote their own contract on the back of a napkin.

We don’t know what is in this contract. Therefore there is no possible way to give Todd the free advice he so desperately seeks.

There are a few things we can glean from Todd’s situation:

You agreed to buy a home in “as is” condition — now you are finding “as is” means “needs repairs”. This should not have been a surprise.

You are now considering re-negotiating, or possibly canceling a contract. Contracts are, well, they are contracts. They generally aren’t designed to just be canceled on a whim. Often you can’t “just cancel” a contract.

My favorite part of this question is, “…and then send a new contract for the lower price…” You can’t just send a new CONTRACT for a lower price. You can send a new OFFER, which Mr/Ms FSBO can then soundly reject (and likely would — why enter into a contract with the same guy who bailed on your previous contract?).

Todd is frustrated. He may even be concerned, asking himself, “What am I going to do? Am I going to be stuck in this thing and get a home I don’t want?”

I feel bad for Todd. I really do. Buying a home is a lengthy, involved process jam-packed with potential pitfalls. It’s not a process most people go through on anything close to a regular basis.

What I can’t understand is why Todd decided to go through the home buying process alone. Yeah, of course I am biased, I’m a real estate broker for Pete’s sake. But honestly, I see things like this all the time. People come through this very blog all the time, with questions, and with very valid and deep concerns. I know Realtors are a group that many love to hate. Part of that we’ve brought on ourselves. Some of that, not-so-much.

I’m not going to beg and grovel for your business. But I am going to plead with you to at least look into using the services of a real estate agent. The ramifications (in cost, time, stress, legalities and more) of not using an agent need to be explored. We are not all evil twisted devil-spawn. Yes, there some lousy agents out there. But there are some brilliant ones too. Interview a few, find one that you can work with and trust and they will work their butt off to make sure you aren’t relegated to asking unanswerable questions on an Internet message board.

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Hat tip Phil Hoover via Joe at Sellsius.

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Michele Guss was with Coldwell-Banker for almost three years. Immediately upon meeting her it was clear that Michele takes her job as a Realtor seriously and makes customer service her top priority. She’s also just an all-around great person.

So she’s a natural fit for our growing family.

To top it off, Michele lives in Fountain Hills, which gives us additional geographic coverage of the North East Phoenix Valley.

Michele has a BA in Criminology and Psychology from the University of Maryland. She’s not a real estate blogger, yet, but she’s anxious to learn and we hope to have her going on PhoenixRealEstateHome.com shortly.

She’s a natural, trust me.

Welcome aboard Michele!

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Phoenix Fireworks

Freedom Wireless Fabulous Phoenix Fourth: 6-9:35 p.m. July 4. Kids rides, food court, scheduled events and fireworks at 9:15 p.m. Steele Indian School Park, 300 E. Indian School Road, Phoenix. Free. 602-534-3378. phoenix.gov.

East Valley Fireworks

CBS5 July Fourth Tempe Town Lake Festival: 4-11 p.m. July 4. Seven hours of live music, inflatable village for all ages, and fireworks. Tempe Town Lake, Rio Salado Parkway and Mill Avenue, Tempe. $6; age 12 and younger are free. 480-350-8625. www.tempe4th.com.

Mesa’s Fourth of July Celebration: 6 p.m. July 4. Entertainment and kiddie rides ending with fireworks at 9 p.m. Also offers food and drink for purchase. No bags, backpacks, coolers, fanny-packs or alcoholic beverages. Mesa Community College, 1833 W. Southern Ave., Mesa. $5 for parking and admission; $1 for admission if not parking on campus. 480-461-7000. www.mc.maricopa.edu.

Independence Day Celebration and Fireworks Spectacular: 4 p.m. July 4. In addition to fireworks at 9:30 p.m., the event features live music, a kids carnival and a bike parade. Activities include a 35-foot waterslide, 24-foot rock-climbing wall, a dunk tank and water games. Tumbleweed Park, 2250 S. McQueen Road, Chandler. Free. 480-782-2735. www.chandleraz.gov.

Red, White and Boom: 5:30 p.m. July 4. Features live music, a cowboy costume contest, a barbecue, decorated buggy rides, face painting and balloon sculpturing. Fireworks start at 9:30 p.m. Rawhide at Wild Horse Pass, 5700 W. North Loop Road, Chandler. $3-$65. 480-753-7676. www.rawhide.com.

Fourth of July Celebration and Anniversary Party: 11 a.m.-11 p.m. July 4. Families enjoy carnival games, prizes every 15 minutes, live music by the Weezul Brothers from 6-10 p.m. and hotdogs and hamburgers grilled outdoors. Benefits The Choir Boys of Arizona. Red, White & Brew, 4850 S. Gilbert Road, Chandler. Free. 480-305-6993. www.rwbaz.com. www.azchoirboys.org.

West Valley Fireworks

Fourth of July Celebration: 7 p.m. July 4. Celebration includes swimming, water slides, food, music, a patriotic program, a F-16 flyover by a Luke Fighter Squadron and fireworks. Free swimming at GCC pool begins at 1 p.m.; doors open for night events at 6 p.m.; fireworks at 8:40 p.m. Glendale Community College Community Pool, Glendale Community College 6000 W. Olive Ave., Glendale. Free. 623-930-2299. www.glendaleaz.com/events.

All-American Festival: 5-10 p.m. July 4. Kids zone, concessions, two stages of live music, fireworks and water activities. Fireworks begin at 9:15 p.m. No alcohol or glass containers are permitted. Peoria Sports Complex, 16101 N. 83rd Ave., Peoria. $5 for ages 13 and older. 623-773-7198. www.peoriaaz/specialevents.

Surprise’s Fourth of July Celebration: 6-8:30 p.m. July 4. Enjoy live music, water zone and food. Surprise Recreation Campus, 15850 N. Bullard Ave., Surprise. $5 for children; $10 for adults. 623-266-4500. www.surpriseaz.com.

Independence Day: 6:30 p.m. July 3. Live music, food and activities. Fireworks set for 9:15 p.m. Bring a blanket. Estrella Lakeside Amphitheatre, 10300 S. Estrella Parkway, Goodyear. Free. 623-386-1000. www.ci.goodyear.az.us.

Scottsdale Fireworks

Grand Ol’ Fashioned Picnic: 5-7:30 p.m. July 4. Celebrate with old-fashioned games, patriotic arts and crafts, and watermelon, chili and pie-eating contests. Bring your homemade chili to be judged. Scottsdale Stadium, 7408 E. Osborn Road, Scottsdale. Free. 480-312-2771. www.scottsdaleaz.gov/events.asp.

July Fourth Celebration: 5-8 p.m. July 4. Tug-of-war, live music and crafts, watermelon eating contest and more. No fireworks. Eldorado Park, 2311 N. Miller Road, Scottsdale. Free. 480-312-2771.

Valley-wide Fireworks

Red, White and Blue Family Parade: 7:15 p.m. July 2. The parade features floats, scooters, bikes, kids and dogs. Paul Mason Sportsplex, 2525 N. Pinal Ave., Casa Grande. Free. 520-421-8677. www.cir.org/seasonal-fourth.html. 

Annual Fireworks Celebration: 8:45 p.m. July 3. Watch the fireworks show overlooking the lake. Lake Pleasant Regional Park, 41835 N. Castle Hot Springs Road, Morristown. $5 per vehicle park entry fee; $2 per watercraft. 928-501-1710 or 602-372-7460. www.maricopa.gov/parks/EventsDetailPublishers.aspx?date=7/3/2008&eventID=6422.

Fourth of July Festivities: 6 p.m. Thursday, 7:30 a.m. Friday, July 3-4. Watch a youth talent show, followed by a street dance with the band Train Wreck Thursday. Friday activities include the Pets and People Parade at 7:30 a.m. and entertainment all day long. Fireworks start at dusk at the Paiz/Stone Complex. Veterans Memorial Park, 3105 E. Fry Blvd., Sierra Vista. Free. 520-266-2304. www.visitsierravista.com.

Third of July Fireworks: 6 p.m. July 3. Live entertainment, outside barbecue, drink specials, and prizes. Reservations required, recommended time: 6-9 p.m. For all ages. Fireworks begin at 9 p.m. Harold’s Cave Creek Corral, 6895 E. Cave Creek Road, Cave Creek. Free. 480-488-1906. www.haroldscorral.com.

Other Arizona Celebrations

Fourth of July: 4 p.m. July 4. Bring a blanket or chair for a fireworks display. Food and beverage available. Tubac Golf Resort & Spa, 1 Otero Road, Tubac. $65 for VIP ticket, which includes special meal, seating and parking; $5 for parking. 520-398-3522 or 520-398-2704. www.tubacaz.com.

July Fourth Celebration: 9 a.m.-9:15 p.m. July 4. Parade starts at Fifth Street to Gila to Seventh Street, which is followed by a water fight at Lions Park. Entertainment and music continues all day with fireworks at 8:45 p.m. Benson, Benson. Free. 520-586-4293. www.bensonvisitorcenter.com.

Fire Over the Water: 4 p.m. July 4. Information, exhibits, kids activities, souvenirs, and raffle. Rubber duck race begins at 6 p.m. and fireworks at 8:30 p.m. Lyman Lake State Park, 11 miles south of St. Johns on U.S. 191, St. Johns. Free. 928-337-4441. www.pr.state.az.us. 

July Fourth Celebration: 10 a.m.-1 p.m. July 4. Clarkdale celebrates its Fourth of July with a parade at 10 a.m., a barbecue at the Verde Valley Railroad station at 11 a.m., and music by a Dixieland band at 12:30 p.m. Clarkdale, $7 for barbecue. 800-320-0718.

Rockets Over the River: 9 p.m. July 4. Fireworks over the Colorado River. Best viewing is along the river, south of the Laughlin Bridge. Bullhead City, Free. 702-298-2214. www.bullheadchamber.com/calendar.htm.

Fourth of July Family Day: 5 p.m. July 4. Old-fashioned celebration with food, games and live entertainment. Fireworks at 8 p.m. Paul Mason Sportsplex, 2525 N. Pinal Ave., Casa Grande. Free. 520-421-8677. www.cir.org/seasonal-fourth.html.

July Fourth at the Fort: 2 p.m. July 4. Event features kids zone, food-eating contests, limbo, and entertainment. Event for all ages, however contest participants must be age 21 and older. Fireworks at 9:45 p.m. Fort McDowell Casino, 10424 N. Fort McDowell Road, Fort McDowell Reservation. Free. 800-THE-FORT or 480-837-1424. www.fortmcdowellcasino.com.

Red, White and Boom: 5-10 p.m. July 4. Fun booths, vendors, food, beer garden, music and fireworks. Old Home Manor Fields, 2100 Old Home Manor Drive, Chino Valley. Free. 928-636-9780. www.cv4th.com.

Freedom Fest: 10 a.m. July 4. Start the day in the pool for open swim and water games before forming teams for the Mud Volleyball tournament. Also participate in the horseshoe tournament, and country-singing contest. A parade will begin at 6:45 p.m. Fireworks start at 8:30 p.m. Heritage Park, 600 N. Main St., Florence. $30 per volleyball team; $10 per horseshoe team; other events free. 520-868-7589. www.town.florence.az.us.

Star-Spangled Spectacular: 6-11 p.m. July 4. Inflatable games, face painting, food, arts and crafts booth, and watermelon-eating contests. Fireworks start at 9 p.m. Ora Mae Harn Park, 13250 N. Lon Adams Road, Marana. Free. 520-382-1950. www.marana.com.

Patagonia’s Fourth of July: 11 a.m. July 4. Begin the day with a parade and hanging of Grand Marshall at the Town Gazebo. Also enjoy music, food and vendors in the park. Fireworks start at 8 p.m. at Patagonia High School. Omitted, Free. 888-794-0060. www.patagoniaaz.com.

Independence Day Celebration: 6 p.m. July 4. Includes hot dogs, watermelon, a waterslide and music. Fireworks start with an F-16 flyover at 7:30 p.m. Tolleson Veterans Park, 8601 W. Van Buren Ave., Tolleson. Free. 623-936-7111. www.tollesonaz.org.

Fourth of July: noon July 4. Dive for soda, candy and money in the pool. Activities include arts and crafts, bouncers, games and a DJ. Food available. Fireworks begin between 9-9:30 p.m. Kenilworth Sports Complex, 671 E. Coolidge Ave., Coolidge. Free. 520-723-4551. www.coolidgeaz.com.

Old-Fashioned Fourth: noon-9 p.m. July 4. Food, dunk tank, bouncy house, rock climbing wall and live bands. Fireworks start at dark over Green Valley Lake. Green Valley Park, 600 N. Green Valley Parkway, Payson. Food ranges in price from $1-$5. 928-474-5242, ext. 7. www.paysonrimcountry.com.

July Fourth Block Party: 4 p.m. July 4. Art and antique walk, classic car displays, magician at Deming History Park, food, watermelon eating and seed-spitting contest and carnival games at Presbyterian Church and live bands. Main Street, between Meadow and South Mclane, Payson. Free. www.paysonrimcountry.com.

Celebrate Freedom: 10 a.m.-midnight July 5. Family activities during the day followed by musical performances and fireworks in the evening. Marks the kick-off of the two-month Miller Lite/Harley Davidson anniversary giveaway. Old Tucson Studios, 201 S. Kinney Road, Tucson. $16.95; $10.95 for age 4-11. 520-883-0100. www.oldtucson.com.

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How to Buy Your First Home, 2E by Diana Brodman Summers covers a lot of ground in 174 pages (plus 113 additional pages including a glossary and several informative appendixes). 

The book is well written and broken into a logical sequence of sections that include:

Preliminaries
Searching for Your Home
Finances
The Buying Process
The Future

Each section includes several chapters written in easy to understand language. Scattered throughout the text are “Attorney Tip” boxes and “Click On This” sidebars with URLs for pertinent web sites —both of which should be helpful to first time home buyers.

The Glossary is extensive and very well done, almost worth the cost of the book on its own.

I’d be remiss in not pointing out one flaw in the book. Granted, I am a real estate broker and may be biased, but this statement by Summers struck me as being very poor advice:

Never let your real estate agent know that you are willing to go higher in an offer for a home. The higher the selling price, the more commission they make. While it is not ethical, your real estate agent may be tempted to tell the sellers that you are willing to pay more.

If you can’t trust your real estate agent, you are working with the wrong agent. To withhold any information from them out of fear they will utilize that to gain a few extra dollars is not a good idea. Better to do your due diligence up front in selecting the right agent, and work with your agent openly and honestly in all aspects of the transaction. The vast majority of agents have their clients best interests in mind. Given typical commissions and brokerage splits, your agent might make an extra $240 if you pay $10,000 more. The agent that sacrifices a potential future client (along with their family and friends) for that kind of money is the agent that likely won’t be in business very long. 

That aside, How To Buy Your First Home contains a great deal of sound information and advice for the first time home buyer.

See the Google Book Search for full table of contents, index, and samples from most chapters.

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