If you are ever in North Carolina or the surrounding area, may I suggest you drop by any Cook-Out BBQ drive-thru?  They are open at all hours and their shakes are delicious and cheap.  That is my first observation in what will become many observations about upcoming Jazz games.  Tonight, we make observations on the Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls.

#1- Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA-

He’s bigger and stronger than Chris Paul, a better and more physical defender than Steve Nash and tonight he kept up athletically with Derrick Rose.  And he outplayed him while being guarded by a premier perimeter defender in Kirk Hinrich.  He has his flaws, but Jazz fans should just sit back and enjoy the player who has become the best at his position in the world.

#2- The Jazz made defensive adjustments at halftime-

The Jazz didn’t play poor defense in the first half.  It wasn’t good defense, but it wasn’t poor.  The Bulls hit a lot of contested shots.  The problem was that the Jazz didn’t guard Brad Miller on the perimeter.  Boozer and Okur should have got up and defending him, because Brad Miller isn’t fast enough to go by anyone in the league, but he can make an open 15 footer.  In the second half, the Jazz played him more tightly and he only managed 5 points.  The Bulls stopped making as many of the shots as they did in the first half and the rest is history.

#3- CJ Miles was feeling it and taking good shots-

Unbelievable shooting from CJ Miles tonight.  Just unbelievable.  But more importantly he took shots within the offense.  He had one three pointer off the dribble around a screen with lots of time left.  But the rest of the three pointers were spot up, open shots off double teams and swing passes.  If he shoots with this kind of confidence then the Jazz offense gets a lot better with Miles and Korver on the wings.

#4- This was an important win-

The Jazz have 11 road games left and if they can manage to even win just 5 of them, they have a good shot at winning 53 games and all but securing a top 4 seed.  Any road wins after that would just be gravy.  With this win, the Jazz set themselves up to win at least 2 on this road trip.

- The Jazz have had recent success in Phoenix.  They have won 3 of the last 6 games there and those 3 losses were by an average of 3.6 points.

- Last time the Jazz played Phoenix, the Suns went 17-30 from the 3 point line for  57%.  In the 4 games previous between the teams Phoenix shot 23-80 (28%).

-The Suns are 1-4 this season on TNT but they are currently riding a 1 game winning streak.

- Amare Stoudemire is better than Carlos Boozer.  Just ask LA Clipper’s coach Kim Hughes.  But seriously, he is.  It isn’t everything but head to head Amare has gone for 24.5 ppg and 12.5 rebounds to Carlos’ 21 ppg and 6 rpg.

- Louis Amundson, a one time Jazz man whom the team called up from the D-league once upon a time, has averaged 14 minutes a game for the Suns.  You’ll be able to recognize him.  He’s the one with a ponytail.

- Kyrylo Fesenko won’t play at all.  He’ll be healthy and ready, but Sloan won’t put him in.  Big Fes will do at least one thing on the bench that draws attention to himself, however.

- Stoudemire may outplay Boozer, but Deron Williams flat out has Nash’s number.  Over the last two seasons D-Will has gone for 20 and 13 on 44% shooting against Phoenix while the two-time MVP has mustered only 14 and 10 against the Jazz. 

- One of the Suns players will shoot over 50% from the 3 point line.  My guess is it will be Channing Frye.

- The Jazz will break out of their offensive slump and score 115 points.  Phoenix will score 121.

- Gametime is scheduled for 10:30 ET on TNT, so be sure to tune in by about 10:49 for the tipoff.

“I don’t need some damn trophy to make me feel good about myself.”

Jazz fans know the drill this time of year.  Sportswriters across the nation have already started passing out season awards and you’ll only see more and more articles calling Lebron James the unrivaled MVP, or Dwight Howard the Defensive Player of the Year.  You won’t find many, if any writers, who don’t think Jamal Crawford is the Sixth Man of the Year.  And then there are the Coach of the Year candidates: Scotty Brooks and Lionel Hollins.  One of those two guys is going to get the award.  Jerry Sloan will not.

You’ll see Jerry Sloan’s name mentioned a few times as a candidate here and there, and most of the time he’ll be mentioned with a caveat like, “if the Jazz can manage the #2 seed in the West, Jerry Sloan will be a strong candidate for COY.”  You see, Jerry Sloan is, and has been for about 20 years, a top 5 coach in the NBA.  Without a title it is hard to argue that Sloan is a better coach today than Gregg Popovich or Phil Jackson.  But it would be equally as hard to argue that any other coach is better than Jerry.  And yet Jerry Sloan remains unrewarded for the coach of the year.  It has become a bit of a joke in the league.

You see, just like with the MVP award, it is hard to quantify what makes a coach the Coach of the Year.  Should the MVP award go to the best player in the league, or the player who means the most to his team?  Should the COY go to the best coach in the league or the one who does the most with the least talent?  Over the last 20 years or so, the COY has gone to the coach that met the second criteria.  If a coach can guide a bad team to mediocrity or a mediocre team to the brink of the playoffs, then he is a strong candidate for the COY.  A coach who is consistent and makes a team that should be good, actually good every year, won’t be heard of in the COY conversation.  Other than a couple of seasons, Jerry Sloan has been too consistent to be a candidate.  And any Jazz fan and many NBA fans know how badly Jerry Sloan got jobbed during the 03-04 season when he coached a team picked in the preseason to be the worst team in NBA history to a game within the playoffs.  That was his one chance and Hubie Brown stole the show.

In honesty, I am sort of glad Jerry Sloan has never been named Coach of the Year.  For one, it just makes the whole award sort of laughable and I like it that way.  But more importantly, the COY award is a deathwish.  Take a look at the list of the latest winners.  Of the last 20 winners, only 3 coaches are still coaching their same team.  Two of those 3 coaches are Don Nelson and Mike Brown, an absolute nutcase and the next COY winner to lose his job.  If you are awarded the COY you are likely to be fired in the next 3 or 4 seasons unless you are Gregg Popovich.  So Jerry Sloan might thank his lucky stars every night that he hasn’t won.  Like I said earlier, you win the award by exceeding expectations and when you can’t continue to meet those expectations, you get the pink slip.

But now I am going to change gears and tell you why coach Sloan is one of the best at what he does, even if he may never get the recognition.  I have to defend Jerry.  Jazz fans don’t realize how good they have it.  In fact, Jazz fans these days will call for Jerry Sloan’s dismissal before they praise him.  Of all the scapegoats Jazz fans conjure up for the Jazz’s lack of a title, Sloan is probably number one with a bullet these days.  But the truth of the matter is that coach Sloan rarely underachieves with his teams.  He only had the best team in the NBA one season and that team came within minutes of winning it all, before the greatest of all time snatched away from them.

Sloan isn’t without his faults.  No coach is.   But I have noticed that as hardheaded as Coach Sloan can be, he has shown growth this season, even in his 68 years.  He has shown that he can make adjustments.  Some of which appear here in my dubunking of complaints Jazz fans have about Jerry Sloan.

#1- Jerry Sloan doesn’t use timeouts effectively to stop the other team’s runs-

Do yourself a favor.  Watch a Jazz game and write down the time and situation in the game when you feel the Jazz, or the opponent, could use a timeout.  And write down what happens coming out of a timeout if one is taken to stop a run.  The truth of the matter is, that timeouts don’t necessarily stop runs.  I was watching a Chicago game the other night and Vinny Del Negro called 3 timeouts in the first half after the opposing team made a run.  Out of those three timeouts, the Bulls got an airball and two turnovers.  So much for changing the momentum of the game.  Secondly, Phil Jackson, a more decorated head coach than Jerry Sloan, almost never calls timeouts to stop a run.  And lastly, in close games, when do you want to have timeouts?  At the end of the game, timeouts allow the team to move the ball to halfcourt.  If you are down and trying to extend the game, having 2 or 3 extra timeouts can be the difference between losing and winning.  Coach Sloan wouldn’t have that luxury if he wasted timeouts to stop momentum earlier.

#2- Coach Sloan never plays his young guys and especially rookies-

Absolutely false.  Ross Siler wrote a really nice piece that touches on this subject just today.  I will refer you to it here.  In short, the Jazz are currently starting a rookie at shooting guard and giving him extensive minutes.  And it isn’t the first time.

#3- Sloan is too rigid in his substitutions and rarely plays the hot hand-

This is the area where I believe Jerry Sloan has grown the most this season.  I can’t tell you how many times I have thought to myself, “this is such an odd lineup for the Jazz to have right now.”  And more often than not, the lineup works.  Look at the lineup that ballooned the lead against Houston a couple nights ago.  It featured CJ Miles, Ronnie Price and Sundiata Gaines.  A lineup featuring Kirilenko and Millsap at the 4 and the 5 closed several games around the time that Carlos Boozer was injured.  You just never know what lineup you are going to see in the Jazz games these days.  For better or for worse sometimes.  But you can’t accuse Coach Sloan of not trying different things.

#4  He hasn’t won us a title yet; He never will-

That might be true.  Jerry Sloan may never win a title.  In fact, he probably won’t.  But I can promise you that there isn’t a man on earth who could take Jerry Sloan’s place today and coach this current Jazz team to a title this season.  Not even Gregg Popovich or Phil Jackson.  Not even Avery Johnson or Jeff Hornacek.  I promise you that it will be a sad day when Sloan does decide to call it quits.  He’s a winner.  And he doesn’t need a trophy to validate his career.

If you’re a Jazz fan, chances are that you saw the Rockets game on Saturday night.  So you definitely noticed that Deron Williams had it going on in the first quarter, scoring 20 points and dishing out 6 assists in less than 12 minutes of play.  I will be honest.  I was nervous after the first quarter, because despite D-Will’s huge outburst, the Jazz were only up by 4 after one quarter and I have seen things like this before.  When Deron Williams does lots of scoring, it doesn’t always translate into Jazz wins.

I should have known it would be okay, because Deron was taking what he could get and he was still setting up his teammates and the Jazz eventually cruised to an easy win 133-110.  But maybe you didn’t hear that Deron Williams set a record with his performance.  Due to his foul trouble, Williams only played 33 minutes in the game and finished with 35 points, 13 assists, and 7 rebounds on 13-17 from the field.  It was the most points and assists in the fewest minutes by a point guard ever.  Phenomenal.  I have always suggested that if he wanted to, Deron could put up whatever numbers he wanted to put up.  This game sort of proved it.  But Deron Williams is smart enough to know what I feared: putting up gaudy numbers doesn’t always lead to wins.  And that is what I really love about Deron Williams more than most of his skills:  he wants to win above all else.  No offense to his record setting play, but I feel the same way too.

Gotta love not funny cartoons.

I’m on the Fesenko bandwagon.  Actually I have been on it for a year or so now.  I am not driving the bandwagon, but I am a comfortable passenger.   The guy helps the Jazz win.  Simple.  But to avoid sounding like just any other Jazz blogger, I am not going to talk about his huge size, or how the Jazz need a big, tall, traditional center to compete. I believe in those thoughts to a degree, but after his play the last couple of games, the “Big Goof” is probably the hot trending topic.  I want to be original.

I want to discuss instead, the +/- statistic.  Now before you stop reading because “+/- is the most useless statistic” just wait one second.  I agree that it isn’t a perfect statistic.  But neither are many statistics.  What do blocks or steals tell us about a players defensive effort?  Did that player block the shot into the stands?  If yes, then that statistic is as good as being a defender and kicking a pass out of bounds…or having it bounce off your head out of bounds.  Point is, that you have to take all statistics in context to understand their value.  So cast off +/- statistics at your own peril.  Often, they tell a very accurate story of a players worth.

It is true that if you look at a +/- stat for a single game, that it can often be misleading.  Maybe that player just played scrub minutes or was lucky to be on the floor when the team went on a run.  Maybe it was just good matchups at the time.  But the truth is that every statistic is less valuable when you look at only one game.  If CJ Miles scored 34 points on Wednesday, would you say, “gee, CJ is an elite scorer in this league?”  Of course not.  Because you can see the whole picture and you know that he usually scores about 9 points a game.  It is the same deal with +/- statistics.  Over a whole season, or several games, I think it is an accurate descriptor of someone’s value.  Coincidences and favorable matchups can’t keep happening over the course of several games.

And so I return to Fesenko.  He has the best +/- statistic on the entire Jazz team.  If you look up the stat on NBA.com here, you will notice that Deron Williams has lead to the biggest + number on the team of 250, meaning that when D-Will is on the court, the Jazz have scored 250 more points than they have given up over the entire season.  But look over at the +/- per minute.  Fesenko has by far the highest number.  The Jazz have only scored 95 more points than they have given up when Fes is on the floor, but he has only played 257 minutes.  If he had played as many minutes as Deron, Fesenko would have a +685.2 differential.  Hypothetical, yes, but still something to think about.

Go look at Fesenko’s box scores sometime when you get a minute.  Almost every game he plays, he scores a + in his playing time… even in the losses.  Tonight in a tough loss to Atlanta, he had a team-high +7.  It happens too often to be coincidental.  Fesenko gets this favorable statistic because he helps anchor a fantastic defense.  When Fesenko is on the floor, the opposing team has scored only 1.78 points per minute of game time over the season.  I’ll call it a Defensive rating of 1.78  Just for statistical reference, Wes Matthews, considered the Jazz’s best defender, has a Defensive rating of 1.99.  Here are the rest of the team’s Defensive rating (my invented rating, mind you; lower is better, just like in golf).

Kyrylo Fesenko          1.78

Deron Williams         2.02

Carlos Boozer              2.09

Andrei Kirilenko        1.97

Paul Millsap                1.99

Ronnie Brewer(RIP) 2.05

Kyle Korver                  1.92

Mehmet Okur              2.05

Ronnie Price                1.89

CJ Miles                        2.06

Sundiata Gaines         2.02

Kosta Koufos               2.15

Dwight Howard         1.94

Okay, so the Dwight Howard stat may not apply.  It’s true, but Orlando might play at a much faster pace.  But Kyrylo Fesenko has by far the best Jazzman numbers in terms of keeping opponents from scoring during his playing time.  The reason is simple.  Teams can’t attack the basket as easily when he is in.  I counted 4 or 5 shots that Hawk players passed up inside, just because Fesenko was there.  They literally dribbled the ball out of the key and reset the play because they ran into Fesenko’s defense.  He isn’t polished.  He isn’t some world-class defender.  He probably isn’t even a very good worker.  But he makes a difference for the Jazz when he is on the floor.  And actually, if you believe +/- statistics, he makes the biggest difference of any Jazz player.

“I loved you Guinevere, I loved you Guinevere, I loved you.”      -Deathcab for Cutie

I woke up this morning to some devastating news.  Kevin Martin had been traded to the Houston Rockets.  It was like asking your dream date, Stacy Jacobs, to prom and finding out that she had just been asked the day before by Tommy Robinson.  And Tommy Robinson is sort of a jerk because he got you sent to detention in the ninth grade by blaming you for drawing a mean picture of the substitute teacher that he really drew.  It doesn’t just suck that you won’t get to take Stacy to the prom, but even worse, you are missing the chance at spending special time with her “in her prime.”  There will be no getting lucky at the Prom.  There won’t be any “going steady” afterward.  No cutest couple photo in the yearbook.

It shouldn’t be a secret that I have had a monster crush on Kevin Martin’s game.  More importantly, I have lusted after his specific skill set to complement a Jazz team that is in desperate need of an elite scorer.  Jazz fans have been talking about Kevin Martin for awhile, but I believe I was the first to point out the fact that he would be a great fit. Maybe I wasn’t, but I will keep telling myself that.  But,  I started pining for his skills after the Jazz lost to the Lakers… two years ago.  Here is a piece I wrote in 2008.   I wanted  him long before he mentioned publicly that he would love to play alongside Deron Williams one day.  I was the guy who loved the girl next door, before she “developed” and started attracting the whole football and basketball team.  And “that guy” only gets the hot chick in the movies.

I’m not going to bore you with numbers, but Martin was THE player to go after this trade deadline, especially if you needed a shooting guard.  He was available (as much as the Kings’ organization insisted he wasn’t, smart basketball minds knew he was the day they drafted Tyreke Evans), he is a top 10 scorer in the NBA over the last 3 seasons, and he only makes the money of a top 30 scorer in the league.  He makes $10 million this season and will top out at $12 million in 2012-13.  That’s bang for your buck.  No other way to put it.  He is about the same cost as Jason Terry, Ben Gordon, Troy Murphy, Monta Ellis, and Josh Howard.  He is cheaper than Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala.  Kevin Martin is better than all of those players, by a lot.

More importantly, he would have been a perfect fit for the Jazz.  The Jeff Hornacek comparisons are appropriate.  With Deron Williams’ ability to penetrate and the Jazz’s low post presences, Martin would have had  6-7 wide open looks a game.  If you think Korver opens up the Jazz offense, then you haven’t seen anything yet.

But alas.  It just wasn’t meant to be.  Now I get to see Tommy Robinson take Stacy to the dance for the next few years.  It probably won’t work out.  Tommy will probably get fresh with Stacy and turn her off.  Maybe Stacy won’t take to Tommy’s friends who like to rate chicks on a boinkability scale.  (moms, don’t ask your kids what this is.  And moms, why are you reading my blog?)

But for now I will just have to sit and wonder what could have been and hope that Martin doesn’t mesh with Aaron Brooks the same way I knew he wouldn’t mesh with Evans.  But if that happens, maybe Kevin Martin isn’t the player I thought he was.  Maybe he would just be another passing crush in high school.

MVP:  It’s got to be Carlos Boozer.  I question how he contributes to the Jazz’s ability to win, but I can’t question his fantasy abilities.  The guy fills the stat sheet.  He is nearly averaging a 20 and 10 and he is also averaging a career high in assists and enjoying his second best year for free throw shooting percentage.  Fantasy owners can’t complain about anything.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment:  Ronnie Brewer.  For a starter who plays over 30 minutes a game, Brewers numbers have drastically decreased in points and decreased in rebounds.  His minimal increase in assists doesn’t compensate.  Brewer should be getting better as he gets older, but this season has been a step backwards.

Biggest Fantasy Surprise:  Andrei Kirilenko.  His numbers haven’t been off the charts or anything, but he is starting to produce at his All-Star 2004 season level.  In his last 10 games, AK-47 is averaging 17.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, with 2.3 steals and 2.2 blocks a game.  All while shooting a ridiculous 67% from the field.  Find me any player in the NBA with comparable numbers over 10 games and his name is probably only Lebron James.

Post All-Star Expectations: I expect, or really hope, that individual statistics go out the window in place of team success.  The nice thing about this Jazz team is that they can all score and fill the stat sheets on different nights.  When the Jazz are good, they might have 3 or 4 straight games with different leading scorers.  And I hope the Jazz will be good.  So if you are trying to make a fantasy splash, look into picking up some players that will put up monster numbers on bad teams.  I have a feeling that the Jazz may start sharing the statistical load.

Biggest

I wonder what Kevin O’ Connor’s phone bill is for the month of February.

It’s some 50 odd hours until the NBA trade deadline comes and goes and looking at several NBA rumor boards, it is going to be a frenzied couple of days.  I expect at least 2 or 3 more blockbuster trades and I also expect the Jazz to make no more trades this week, although they will be rumored in several.  But while all the trade hubbub goes on, so does the season and the Jazz team is going to need to buckle down and get serious about showing that they have really improved from last season.

The first test of many to come is in Houston tonight.  I don’t need to go into the Jazz’s well-documented struggles on the road.  Last season they went 15-26 on the road.  So far this season the Jazz have gone 10-12 away from Salt Lake and have shown some promise by winning tough games recently.  But when you have road struggles and you have 19 of your 31 games left away from home, you better come prepared to play ball.  I Hope the Jazzmen got some rest over the all-star break.

Here is what Carlos Boozer said regarding the Jazz’s disappointing home loss to the Lakers last week: 

“I talked to all the guys after the game, we were all pretty much tired,” Boozer said. “[We] didn’t have any legs, didn’t make any shots, didn’t make free throws, had a hard time defending. We’ll just brush that one off, learn from it and get ready for this road trip.”

Okay.  That’s cool.  But fatigue can’t be an excuse any longer.  The Jazz have 9 games on a back to back night for the rest of the season and they can’t really afford to just drop games because of a lack of energy.  I won’t accept that excuse.  I have a feeling Jerry Sloan won’t accept that excuse.  Because as well as the Jazz have played lately, they are only 3 games out of second place in the West.  But we are also only 5 games out of missing the playoffs all together.  Not much room to just be brushing off losses.

It’s time for the Jazz to show us that they can be more mentally tough than physically tired or unprepared.  And it starts tonight in Houston.

Now Look what you’ve started, Mark.

Espn is reporting that the Mavericks and Wizards are closing in on a deal that will send Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and former Jazzman DeShawn Stevenson to Dallas for Josh Howard and Drew Gooden.  This trade is a big deal for the Jazz and the rest of the Western Conference.

First of all, the Mavericks probably just leapfrogged the Jazz in terms of talent and potential to get a top seed in the playoffs, if this deal goes through.  The Mavericks would also be giving up very little in this deal, when at worst, they would bring back an equally good small forward and a better big man to throw against the Nuggets and Lakers this spring.  Josh Howard is a nice player, but he hasn’t really been a part of Dallas’ offense for a couple of years.

Also, I was surprised out how easily the Mavericks were able to get both Butler and Haywood, when Washington was requesting Rudy Fernandez AND Nicolas Batum from the Trailblazers for only Haywood.  If I am the Wizards, I think I am more interested in Martell Webster and Steven Blake than Howard and Gooden, but that is Portland’s loss.  But the Blazers would have given themselves a chance to win this year and improved for next season by making this same trade.

Thirdly, in years past, moves like this have been a start to more trades.  Dallas looks much more formidable on paper to challenge the Lakers now.  Perhaps the Lakers will address their weakness at point guard with a trade now.  Washington is in total cost cutting mode and I bet they speed up talks to trade Antawn Jamison now.  Boston and Cleveland are the front runners there.  The Jazz aren’t going to make a trade, just because Dallas did.  That’s not how they roll.  But Denver?  Perhaps.  I will tell you, that if this trade goes through, there will be lots of cursing in the front offices of Utah, Denver and San Antonio.

I expect at least 4 more big trades between now and Thursday’s deadline.

But the truth of the matter is that CJ Miles is contributing.  In many ways.  He doesn’t do everything right, but he has played a big part in the Jazz’s winning ways.  About a week ago, it was with his surprising defense on Dirk Nowitzki that sparked the Jazz to a home win.  Last month, CJ dished out uncharacteristic assists left and right in the important minutes of a game in San Antonio.  And last night, CJ Miles had the best +/- statistic of any Jazzman.  Sometimes that statistic is misleading.  Other times, it tells an accurate story of the game.  Last night, Cj Miles and Ronnie Price, led a big run that ultimately helped them win the game.  Carlos Boozer was fantastic, but he couldn’t even get the Jazz the lead.  For every point the Jazz put up, the Clippers matched and then some.  Cj was active around the basket and dished out a handful of assists during the critical 4th quarter run.  So on a day when most Jazz fans are calling for his head, I am going to give CJ a well-deserved, verbal pat on the back.