http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

in short:

In the spring and summer of 1816, a persistent dry fog was observed in the northeastern United States. The fog reddened and dimmed the sunlight, such that sunspots were visible to the naked eye. Neither wind nor rainfall dispersed the “fog”. It has been characterized as a stratospheric sulfate aerosol veil.

In May 1816, however, frost killed off most of the crops that had been planted, and on 4 June 1816, frosts were reported in Connecticut, and by the following day, most of New England was gripped by the cold front. On 6 June 1816, snow fell in Albany, New York, and Dennysville, Maine  Nearly a foot (30 cm) of snow was observed in Quebec City in early June, with consequent additional loss of crops—most summer-growing plants have cell walls which rupture even in a mild frost. The result was regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality—in short, famine.

The general wisdom cause was:

The eruption of the 1815 (April 5–15) volcanic Mount Tambora eruption  on the island of Sumbawa, Indonesia

The Iclandic eruption is already having an effect.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iceland-volcano-as-the-dust-settles-kenya-s-blooms-wilt-tele-bc2dbb0279a3.html?x=0

Kenyas exoctic flower markets are literally dying.

Food for thought and a word for the wise, just because it’s important doesn’t mean it’s on the news.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6x_zO0IIsE

If you don’t know what Henry sugar referrers to, here you go:

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This all lead to the concept of automated trading.  I’ve known about computer automated trading for a while and the concept of system trading.  The problem a novice like me has with it is that you can lose a bunch if you don’t do it right mainly because of commission fees.  The more you have in a position the less this is a problem but for me with $1000 at a time commissions are 2% or $19.98 so I have to make 4% for to make 2% myself, which as you can see is a good deal for my brokerage.

So I then hear on NPR  that 35% of all trades in the stock market are done solely by computer.  It’s easy to imagine if you are managing a ton of money that you can develop a computer program to buy when certian things happen and sell when another thing happens, and since it’s a computer it can watch and wait all day everyday for those conditions to arise, and when it does it executes and makes you some money.  When dealing with sums of $10k and above that may be a price increase of .2% even less when you consider they are probably not paying 9.99 a trade like I am on both ends = 19.98 per cycle.

So I wanted to see if I could have a piece of that action.  I’ve been playing with stocks for a few months and my brokerage tdameritrade.com actually gives you software that you can program and let it run semi or fully automated.  If that doesn’t blow you away, it should, as software that does this usually costs in the $3,500.00 range.

So I figured I’d make an ultra conservative formula first.  And since I don’t like to loose, I only will program a winning exit, figuring I’ll pick stocks that I wouldn’t mind holding on to for a while if they went down in value.  I found an indicator that took various snapshots of the moving average that the program called ultimate oscillator, when it fell below 35 and came back across 35 I would buy which is very common practice in stock trading (buying when oversold).  The kicker is that I am  going to sell as soon as it gains 4% from my entry price no matter what and not a penny higher, unless of course the open was higher than the previous day than 9:30 the next day, than that would be the first time I could buy which would only make the payoff better.

So I decided to find low cap high volume stocks with high percentage gains and losses so I can see this work quickly. I did it with ETFC or E-Trade financial.  I thought they were going to go up from their 1.60’s anyway since I thought their stock was unfairly depressed.  I plugged in the formula and this is how it went.

So within 15 days, it was able to perform two round trip cycles of 2% gains every time after commissions were taken out.  The beauty about this is that I didn’t have to get up at 6 am to watch the stock market for 15 days straight, I just set the computer going and it did everything. 

Here is the part that was new to me and takes getting used to, the stock after that last buy on the 31st went sharply down into the 1.50’s.  I had to just watch and wait, knowing that that also happened when I tested the system over historical prices.  I just had to wait and forget about it and the computer will do it’s thing when the time is right, had I sold emotionally I would of lost way more than the gain was from the first sale.  So today for a brief moment ETFC hit $1.82 and the computer sold my shares completing two round trips.  Without automated trading I would have to be watching the stock price the entire day and still could have missed the 5 min or so window to sell.  I’m going to include some snapshots from strategydesk,

So I think the test wen’t well, I think in the future I will only go one round trip with one stock at a time until I have a dedicated machine for the job.  But the amazing thing to me is the consistency of backtesting, 4% in 15 days, or let’s just say 4% every 4 months, that’s still better than madoff promised his clients for returns.

And as  a programmer and not a daytrading stock guru, this is so much easier than having to keep up with day to day trends.

http://isleprince.com/stock.php

It just calculates what my minimum sale price of  a purchased stock should be, how many I can buy.   If anyone else does this stuff, I thought you may find it useful.

-=j=-

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/08/30/frank-says-house-likely-approve-audit-federal-reserve/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/11/federal-reserve-audit-sup_n_214004.html

http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/audit-the-federal-reserve-hr-1207/

I recommend Crash Proof, and Wealth War and Wisdom as some listening materials from itunes.

-=j=-

Anyway a few months ago I made a deposit and bought my first notes to try it out and helped fund two home remodels both of which had excellent credit and income was verified by lendingclub.  And so far it’s working great, and if you ever read the Richest Man in Babylon, this tool will allow you to take on the role of the money lender that really hasn’t been available to the common folk for a long time without great risk.

Anyway, they just sent out an email to me saying anyone that registers and uses my referral id IslePrince when signing up will recieve a credit for $50.  So I say if you are even remotely interested do it by the 15th of august and invest the $50 they give you and see how it works.

I’m pasting the email they sent below

Dear Jeevan,

• When registering online, tell your friends to type in your personal Referred by code when registering: IslePrince 
• OR use this link to automatically upload a list of email addresses (all information is kept strictly private) and automatically send your friends a personal note: https://www.lendingclub.com/invite/invite.action

This is a limited time offer, so please have your friends register as investor prior to August 15^th to ensure they receive $50 to invest in Lending Club notes.

Sincerely,
The Lending Club Team
866-811-9225
Lending Club: One of the Top 20 Breakthrough ideas for 2009 – Harvard Business Review

Lulu has created a mini photobook for its publishers, while it may make a cool gift or photo album of the kids, it is a really inexpensive and impressive format if used as  a leave behind or a brochure for your company or as a portfolio piece.

If your idea is complex the minibook may be more effective than handing out a business card.