tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:50:56 +0000“To laugh much; to win the respect of intelligent persons and the affections of children; to earn the approbation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty; to find the best in others; to give of one's self; to leave the world a little better, whether by a healthy child, a garden patch, or a redeemed social condition.; to know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived--this is to have succeeded.” Ralph Waldo Emersonhttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/arthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)Blogger1520125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-5053343326876142123Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:24:00 +00002009-11-12T12:50:56.378-05:00monetizationUS Long BondTreasury manipulationSome US institutions are being compelled by new government regulations to buy long bonds to 'match duration' of their obligations per a ruling of a few years ago.Other than that, anyone buying the 30 year bond, other than for the Fed carry trade, in an time of quantitative easing and free spending government, should be institutionalized.The Fed bond carry trade is when the primary dealers buy http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/3LyMT8HrIGc/speaking-of-garish-bling-us-long-bond.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/3LyMT8HrIGc" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/speaking-of-garish-bling-us-long-bond.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-7646538266663275806Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:15:00 +00002009-11-12T10:20:41.085-05:00NAV of precious metal fundsSecondary offering in the equity of the fund is pending, although this tends to be a wash less transaction fees because the proceeds are used to expand the base of metals held. The premiums expand and contract in the funds depending on sentiment on the future course of gold and silver bullion prices. The premiums on the ETFs are relatively stable, representing 1/10 ounce of the metal with a http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/EdRxZdZOhUk/navs-of-certain-precious-metal-etfs-and.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/EdRxZdZOhUk" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/navs-of-certain-precious-metal-etfs-and.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-5569565294530882692Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:26:00 +00002009-11-12T11:02:58.581-05:00insider tradingfinancial corruptionfinancial reformThe fraud is becoming more blatant on all fronts.Mary Shapiro and the SEC should immediately subpoena the records of options purchases in 3COM and Hewlett-Packard for this week, and look for unusually large purchases. But chances are that they will do nothing, because there is a soft partnership between the government and Wall Street.Make no mistake. Front running and monetary bubbles are not http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/lAI_AnOwPn8/fraud-on-street-in-purchase-of-3com.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/lAI_AnOwPn8" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/fraud-on-street-in-purchase-of-3com.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3016810435250882807Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:10:00 +00002009-11-11T15:43:43.934-05:00derivativesTavakoliBear StearnsBy Janet Tavakoli of Tavakoli Structured FinanceRalph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, former hedge fund managers and co-heads of Bear Stearns Asset Management, were acquitted yesterday (November 10) of all six counts in their fraud trial” U.S. v. Cioffi, 08-CR-00415, U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York (Brooklyn)."I worked at Bear Stearns in the late 1980s and remembered amiable http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/CP14FDULRug/guest-post-conversation-with-ralph.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/CP14FDULRug" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/guest-post-conversation-with-ralph.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-8628514942433933540Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:05:00 +00002009-11-11T16:02:35.256-05:00SP Daily ChartAn obvious reflationary effort that, without serious financial reform and economic rebalancing, will degenerate into another phase of the financial crisis and the ongoing banking fraud in a corrupt partnership with government."There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected.This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/xGCSsExaQ5A/sp-futures-daily-chart_11.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/xGCSsExaQ5A" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/sp-futures-daily-chart_11.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3189489356809545475Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:11:00 +00002009-11-11T09:42:49.906-05:00goldfinancial engineeringfiat currencyDr. Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics, and advisor to the Bank of England, has written a somewhat astonishing broadsheet attacking of all things, gold.I have enjoyed his writing in the past. And although he does tend to cultivate and relish the aura of eccentric maverick, it is generally appealing, and his writing has been pertinent and reasoned, if unconventional. That is what http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/6tA1CgrMzi4/unberable-lightness-of-thinking-like.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/6tA1CgrMzi4" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/unberable-lightness-of-thinking-like.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-7938125308511237626Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:15:00 +00002009-11-10T10:54:36.076-05:00speculative bubblefinancial engineeringFormer Fed governor Fred Mishkin distinguishes between bad bubbles, that hurt banks, and good bubbles like the tech bubble, that just hurt investors and distort the economy.Is the Fed creating a bubble in equities now? Probably.Do they care, are they concerned? No, not according to ex Fed governor Fred Mishkin.We find that there is an odd framing of the question, which seems rather binary. Eitherhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/9pIHPtoIGXo/how-i-learned-to-stop-worring-and-love.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/9pIHPtoIGXo" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-i-learned-to-stop-worring-and-love.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-8732540428469659341Tue, 10 Nov 2009 03:03:00 +00002009-11-09T22:46:10.406-05:00peak oilHere's one for the peak oil crowd, and those who suspect that the US and others have been manipulating certain market information for their own purposes, to promote a hidden agenda, to manage public perception.Skeptical as always for now, but let's see what happens with this story.Guardian UKKey oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblowerTerry Macalister9 November 2009 21.30 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/wOL7C888FYI/peak-oil-whistleblower-at-iea-claims.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/wOL7C888FYI" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/peak-oil-whistleblower-at-iea-claims.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3434535424790322721Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:30:00 +00002009-11-09T21:39:22.014-05:00SP Daily ChartIt looks like the bulls want to take this squeeze up to the 1105 trendline, with six bull days under their belt since the tag on the lower trend line last week.This rally is being accomplished on thin volumes, thick liquidity, and weak regulations dominated by trading programs, with obviously fabricated and highly overstated fundamental underpinnings.As Lloyd Blankfein would characterize it, the http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/X2pxFSNMKvE/sp-futures-daily-chart.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/X2pxFSNMKvE" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/sp-futures-daily-chart.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-5165635333352272572Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:57:00 +00002009-11-09T16:14:23.463-05:00natural gasFor now natural gas supplies in the US are above average, and the Energy Information Administration is forecasting a slightly warmer winter than last year in the US Midwest, and slightly colder in the West. The Midwest is the primary consuming region for natural gas and propane, with heating oil in the northeast.There is some speculation this week that Hurricane Ida may enter the Gulf of Mexico, http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/03eymJuDJWA/outlook-for-us-natural-gas-supplies-and.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/03eymJuDJWA" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/outlook-for-us-natural-gas-supplies-and.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-6665456196265291956Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:13:00 +00002009-11-07T12:21:05.917-05:00monetarismfinancial engineeringmonetary inflationThe triumph of financial engineering based on an analysis of the past.Conscience of a LiberalThe story so far, in one pictureBy Paul KrugmanNovember 3, 2009World industrial production in the Great Depression and now:Jesse here. This chart is a bit deceptive because it compares two periods of time based on the start of the crisis. It would be interesting to compare the two crises from the start ofhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/kfWb8HMB9P4/krugman-declares-mission-accomplished.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/kfWb8HMB9P4" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/krugman-declares-mission-accomplished.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-6165505180575249441Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:28:00 +00002009-11-07T06:38:18.517-05:00Govenment statisticsunemploymentNon-farm PayrollsHere is an excerpt from today's Bureau of Labor Statistics Non-farm Payrolls report."The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarmpayroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in con-struction, manufacturing, and retail trade.Household Survey DataIn October, the numberhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/6y5ThzXvnSc/reader-asks-how-did-558000-people-lose.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/6y5ThzXvnSc" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/reader-asks-how-did-558000-people-lose.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-4244492933529339239Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:55:00 +00002009-11-07T06:37:55.048-05:00monetization of equitiesHere is a longer term chart of the SP 500 showing the decline with the unfolding financial crisis, and the rally from the first major market bottom in equities. The rally has been a nearly perfect 50 percent retracement.Here is the same view of the SP 500 but deflated by the Euro. This puts the rally into a slightly different perspective, which is not nearly so dramatic, about a 38.2% retracementhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/gGNH4Ocm460/perspective-sp-500-rally-from-first.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/gGNH4Ocm460" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/perspective-sp-500-rally-from-first.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-634250113762570777Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:04:00 +00002009-11-07T06:37:26.701-05:00zombie bankshttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/zq7TYoos-RQ/warren-pollock-game-change-for-zombie.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/zq7TYoos-RQ" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/warren-pollock-game-change-for-zombie.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-8630873219897550641Fri, 06 Nov 2009 02:06:00 +00002009-11-05T22:00:12.993-05:00financial reformRealClearMarkets has an interesting interview with Charlie Gasparino regarding his new book "The Sellout." There seems to be a consensus forming that something has gone seriously wrong with the US republic, and that the Obama administration is failing to address it, failing badly.One has to wonder what it will take to give Washington a wakeup call. It seems that, when confronted by white collar http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/kdXjAiGC-Uc/gasparino-on-sellout.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/kdXjAiGC-Uc" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/gasparino-on-sellout.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3533031631310930907Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:46:00 +00002009-11-06T03:58:38.406-05:00Govenment statisticsNon-farm PayrollsTomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be reporting its October non-farm payrolls number. The consensus of economists is for a job loss of only 175,000 which is an improvement over the prior month loss, but more importantly maintains a steady uptrend as shown in the chart below.The BLS almost always revises the prior two months, in this case August and September. They tend to 'borrow' from http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/LtEtuUzHQx4/tomorrow-non-farm-payrolls-consensus-of.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/LtEtuUzHQx4" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/tomorrow-non-farm-payrolls-consensus-of.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3883875712748231889Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:30:00 +00002009-11-05T12:39:57.900-05:00NAV of precious metal fundsNote: the way I use this information is not so much to compare the premiums with each other, although there are some relationships there and significant deviations are of interest. Each of them is different from the others. CEF and GTU are funds holding physical gold and/or silver, and the amounts of metal they hold varies infrequently in well advertised step-wise changes.GLD and SLV are ETFs, http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/E1aprwLyw8E/nav-premiums-of-certain-precious-metal.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/E1aprwLyw8E" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/nav-premiums-of-certain-precious-metal.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-6310967742672930675Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:24:00 +00002009-11-04T23:59:16.863-05:00goldbubbleWhen the junior miners start showing these kinds of returns, you might be in a bubble.We're nowhere near that point yet.http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/DjkflIiqg2M/how-can-you-tell-when-gold-is-in-bubble.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/DjkflIiqg2M" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-can-you-tell-when-gold-is-in-bubble.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-7381327073482499096Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:02:00 +00002009-11-04T12:20:01.903-05:00dollar carry tradedollar hegemonydollar devaluationEurodollardollar reserve currencyRoughly analagous to Eurodollars, although it is not clear how much if any of the central bank reserves are actually captured here in these reports by BIS reporting commercial banks, especially in China and the non-European countries. Certainly the NY Fed Custodial Accounts for Foreign Central Banks show no decline whatsoever from the long term trend of accumulation to support their mercantilism http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/g8WALYpJVgU/foreign-holdings-of-us-dollar-assets.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/g8WALYpJVgU" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/foreign-holdings-of-us-dollar-assets.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3452516702374954001Wed, 04 Nov 2009 07:14:00 +00002009-11-11T04:53:04.155-05:00Gold chartsNow that gold seems to have successfully broken out from its continuation pattern (ascending triangle or inverse H&S) we should be able to chart its targets more precisely than the chart from 24 September that at least successfully projected the breakout.If there is a major liquidation event, such as an equity market dislocation, gold will likely be hit as well, but will provide an exceptional http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/vp-aKTytFi4/long-term-gold-chart.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/vp-aKTytFi4" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/long-term-gold-chart.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-8251471830776011723Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:55:00 +00002009-11-09T11:24:44.094-05:00eurodollarsTWEXBUS Dollar Very Long Term ChartHere is an update of the US Dollar (DX) Very Long Term chart last shown on 3 April 2009 when the Eurodollar Squeeze was still abating. We do not see any reason to change the longer term targets based on what appears to be a confirmation of the continuing decline.The reasons for this decline are obvious, but so many miss this that we have to wonder what people are thinking. Despite the credit http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/_fil_7ZBVt0/us-dollar-very-long-term-chart.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/_fil_7ZBVt0" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/us-dollar-very-long-term-chart.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-3189835739527329011Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:12:00 +00002009-11-03T10:24:22.159-05:00budget deficitdollar devaluationdebt to gdpdomino of defaults"In case you failed to catch it in our previous articles this year, we thought we’d state it outright for our readers this month: the United States Government is on a trajectory to default on their obligations. In its current financial condition, it will not be able to fund its forecasted budget deficits and unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises on top of its current debt obligations. http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/ZfEiB9TJIw0/ladies-and-gentlemen-united-states-of.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/ZfEiB9TJIw0" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/ladies-and-gentlemen-united-states-of.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-4827148976403193704Tue, 03 Nov 2009 02:27:00 +00002009-11-02T23:03:32.613-05:00central banksgoldmonetizationAn apertif for the Indian central bank, and barely a nibble for dollar heavy China."You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold." George Bernard ShawLiveMint WSJRBI to buy 200 tonnes of IMF goldBy Tamal http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/s9S9sAJhjqQ/reserve-bank-of-india-buys-200-tonnes.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/s9S9sAJhjqQ" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/reserve-bank-of-india-buys-200-tonnes.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-4809919918620652152Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:31:00 +00002009-11-02T21:43:05.506-05:00bailoutsThanks to Cafe patron Malcolm McMichael1. The Treasury and the Fed rewarded some aggressive risk takers and failing business models at the expense of those who followed sound business practices. Those who followed conservative practices have been penalized twice; first on the way up and again on the way down. Those companies that did fail appear to have been 'targeted' by insiders.2. Much of the http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/uOk5cRhd13s/ten-things-not-to-like-about-us.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/uOk5cRhd13s" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/ten-things-not-to-like-about-us.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6418112515382102078.post-345985709680227829Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:34:00 +00002009-11-02T12:16:53.206-05:00SP Daily Chartmonetization of equitiesreflationUS Dollar Daily ChartNDX Daily ChartEven if one does not use technical analysis, it is a good idea to take a look at a chart now and then to maintain one's bearings in a market. It is a natural tendency to get caught up in the short term movements, to be affected by the hype and hysteria from the bulls and the bears, and to lose the bigger picture and the general intermediate trends.It appears to us that we are seeing a lifting of http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/vjz7s7v49ss/market-perspective-from-daily-charts.htmlarthurcutten@yahoo.com (Jesse)<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~4/vjz7s7v49ss" height="1" width="1"/>http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/market-perspective-from-daily-charts.html