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	<title>jfleck at inkstain</title>
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	<link>https://www.inkstain.net</link>
	<description>A few thoughts from John Fleck, a writer of journalism and other things, living in New Mexico</description>
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		<title>Every Pixel Tells a Story</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/every-pixel-tells-a-story/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Apr 2026 15:26:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Albuquerque]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ribbons of Green]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37411</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_37412" style="width: 740px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://fleck-open-et.projects.earthengine.app/view/vegetation-change-in-new-mexicos-middle-rio-grande"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37412" class="size-large wp-image-37412" src="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-1024x639.jpg" alt="Screenshot of a Google Earth App showing red areas of Albuquerque where water use has gone down and blue where it has gone up." width="730" height="456" srcset="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-1024x639.jpg 1024w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-300x187.jpg 300w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-768x479.jpg 768w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-1536x958.jpg 1536w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-2048x1277.jpg 2048w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/GEE-app-730x455.jpg 730w" sizes="(max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-37412" class="wp-caption-text">Every pixel tells a story.</p></div>


<div class="wp-block-jetpack-markdown"><p>I’ve been learning over the last few months how to make better use of the cornucopia of remote sensing data, satellites flying overhead snapping our picture, Instagram writ large. It offers a helpful reframing of my thinking about how water is spread across the landscape of New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande Valley.</p>
<p>Sometimes we do it with intentionality and purpose, turning a farm field into a shopping center, running municipal lines to a new neighborhood, or abandoning an old one. (Yes, the latter has happened.) Sometimes the landscape grabs water on its own, trees dipping their roots into the shallow aquifer on the valley floor. Sometimes we do it because we value the green. Sometimes the change in green is just a side effect, water stuff just <em>happens</em>. Sometimes the satellite data helps answer questions. Mostly right now, for me, it suggests new questions to which I don’t know the answers.</p>
<p>Consider the map above. I’ve been staring at it for the last week in QGIS, the mapping software on my laptop. I built a <a href="https://fleck-open-et.projects.earthengine.app/view/vegetation-change-in-new-mexicos-middle-rio-grande">Google Earth Engine app</a> so you can stare at it too.</p>
<p>NASA’s Landsat satellites have been flying around snapping our pictures since the early &#8217;70s, and with enough resolution beginning in the mid-&#8217;80s to begin seriously looking at the questions I’m interested in. The image above draws on algorithmic magic that creates an <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-enhanced-vegetation-index">enhanced vegetation index</a> showing which of the little pixels are vegetate &#8211; the thing we do with our consumptive use of water, making our desert landscape green. For the map above, I’ve colored each pixel to show the vegetation trend over time &#8211; blue ones have gotten more vegetated (by implication using more water), red ones have gotten less vegetated.</p>
<p>The map is full of “duh” moments &#8211; neighborhoods built since the 1980s are blue, as we turn desert into homes with trees and gardens, cars out front and kids’ basketball hoops in the cul-de-sacs. The former Kirtland Air Force neighborhoods along the northern edge of the base light up red. No more cul-de-sacs and basketball hoops, no more trees. The old farms of the South Valley that are no longer irrigated show up as big irregular red patches &#8211; Valle de Oro the most prominent, but the old Tobacco Farms property that’s now a Walmart, and the east side south valley farms that are now light industrial &#8211; red as well.</p>
<p>The riverside woods are largely greener, a riparian bosque flourishing after the combination of levees and an upstream flood control dam enabled our beloved forest to become what it is today. Except where it isn’t &#8211; the bits of red sprinkled through the bosque raise fresh questions.</p>
<p>The mix of blue and red on the valley floor tells a rich story &#8211; the expansion of the leafy village life of Corrales and Los Ranchos de Albuquerque as residents optimize around its mix of ditch water and unmetered domestic wells (and city water in Los Ranchos) while parcels farmed and irrigated decline. We’ve been looking at these patterns in bulk census data for years. The satellites let us see them, pixel by pixel, on the landscape.</p>
<p>Albuquerque’s near Northeast Heights, where I live, is fascinating. All that red! I could tell a simple just-so-story about municipal water conservation efforts that took hold in the mid-1990s, xeric gardens like mine. But it might be something as simple as a pattern of senescence of neighborhood trees build during the post-war boom of the 1950s. Maybe both? Tearing out lawns &#8211; the lawns from which they got water &#8211; dooming our aging trees?</p>
<p>There’s a big red pixel across the street from my house where our neighbor’s magnificent old cottonwood is no more.</p>
<p>There’s some sciency work going on behind all this, as my UNM colleagues and I turn toward bulk numbers and trends, trying to step away from the flattened landscape suggested by water agency numbers to the richer picture the remote sensing data offers of where the water is actually going in this coupled human-natural system, what we do with it, what we actually have reason to value.</p>
<p>But I also love the little stories. Every pixel tells a story.</p>
<h2>A note on methods</h2>
<p>The conceptual work &#8211; choice of methods, experimental design, iteration over various options of time periods, geographies, and remote sensing tools &#8211; is mine, with help from some of our smart students who have been teaching me about this remote sensing stuff for years. I use Anthropic’s Claude Code and OpenAI’s Codex for the software engineering. They are way better at writing code than I am. Most of the resulting code runs on Google Earth Engine, which supports my academic work with a generous free account.</p>
<p>In posting this publicly, a) I’m reasonably confident of what I’ve got, and b) I bear responsibility for the results.</p>
</div>
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		<title>More on 2026 US wheat acreage</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/more-on-2026-us-wheat-acreage/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2026 15:54:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[agriculture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37408</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s always more interesting than I think! After this morning&#8217;s quickie &#8220;wheat acreage lowest since 1919&#8221; post, I dusted off my USDA NASS data skills (I used to work with that data a lot, but it&#8217;s been ages). Why 1919? 1919, it turns out, was when USDA&#8217;s US wheat acreage record starts! So really what ...</p><p><a href="https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/more-on-2026-us-wheat-acreage/" class="more-link">Continue reading &#8216;More on 2026 US wheat acreage&#8217; &#187;</a>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_37409" style="width: 740px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37409" class="size-large wp-image-37409" src="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome-1024x652.png" alt="Monochrome line chart of U.S. planted acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat, 1919-2026. Wheat is the solid black line and declines over the long run to about 43.8 million acres in 2026; soybeans, shown as a dotted gray line, rise to about 84.7 million acres; corn, shown as a dashed light-gray line, remains highest at about 95.3 million acres." width="730" height="465" srcset="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome-1024x652.png 1024w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome-300x191.png 300w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome-768x489.png 768w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome-1536x979.png 1536w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome-730x465.png 730w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/us_planted_acreage_comparison_monochrome.png 1959w" sizes="(max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /><p id="caption-attachment-37409" class="wp-caption-text">The rise of soy.</p></div>


<p>It&#8217;s always more interesting than I think!</p>



<p>After this morning&#8217;s quickie &#8220;<a href="https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/quoting-trading-economics/">wheat acreage lowest since 1919</a>&#8221; post, I dusted off my <a href="https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/">USDA NASS data</a> skills (I used to work with that data a lot, but it&#8217;s been ages).</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why 1919?</h2>



<p>1919, it turns out, was when USDA&#8217;s US wheat acreage record starts! So really what we&#8217;re saying is &#8220;the lowest acreage as far back as the data goes.&#8221; Wheat&#8217;s been in a long decline since the early &#8217;80s.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What was happening in 1919?</h2>



<p>US wheat acreage exploded during WWI because Europeans were using their farmland to kill one another rather than grow food, and we stepped in to fill the gap.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2026 is stuff happening at the margin</h2>



<p>While &#8220;lowest since 1919&#8221; sounds dramatic (hence my clickbaity morning post), in fact the squiggles on the graph show stuff happening at the margin: wheat down a little bit, but enough for the clickbait, corn also down a little but, soy up a little bit.</p>
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		<title>Quoting Trading Economics</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/quoting-trading-economics/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:27:06 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[agriculture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37406</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Agriculture officials estimate that total United States wheat acreage will drop to its lowest level since 1919 as farmers finalize spring planting plans under the shadow of a virtual shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz. &#8211; Trading Economics]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Agriculture officials estimate that total United States wheat acreage will drop to its lowest level since 1919 as farmers finalize spring planting plans under the shadow of a virtual shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
</blockquote>



<p> &#8211; <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat" data-type="link" data-id="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat">Trading Economics</a></p>
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		<title>It&#8217;s a city book</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/its-a-city-book/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2026 23:25:35 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Albuquerque]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ribbons of Green]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37402</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_37403" style="width: 650px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37403" class="size-full wp-image-37403" src="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/IMG_6068.jpeg" alt="Black and white photograph of a library with &quot;library&quot; sign and a street beyond" width="640" height="550" srcset="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/IMG_6068.jpeg 640w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/IMG_6068-300x258.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p id="caption-attachment-37403" class="wp-caption-text">My beloved International District Library</p></div>


<div class="wp-block-jetpack-markdown"><p>A friend who has been part of the <a href="https://www.unmpress.com/9780826369680/ribbons-of-green/"><em>Ribbons of Green</em></a> brain trust for the last six years reminded me over a taco truck library bench lunch today about the expectations I confront as the book emerges in the next six weeks into public view.</p>
<p>It’s not a water book. It’s a city book.</p>
<p>I mention the taco truck library bench lunch deliberately, because that is a city sort of a story &#8211; riding our bikes through the International District to check out the new park going in next to the library, then south to the taco truck in the lot next to the union hall, then zigging and zagging past a closed park to find a shady bench in front of the library on which to sit.</p>
<p>I’ve had the crud for nearly a month, and barely been on the bike at all, which is a striking break with my life’s rhythm. The problem with the break is not mainly the exercise, though not exercising when your body’s used to exercising is a problem. It’s the pattern of moving through my city on two wheels. It’s my <em>practice</em>, a city thing.</p>
<p>In the preface to <em>Ribbons of Green</em>, Bob Berrens and I frame the reasons we wrote this book the way we did:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Cities are one of humanity’s great inventions. People come together to share the social and economic benefits that flow from acting collectively at ever-larger scales. They are a tool for what the Bengali-born, Nobel Prize–winning economist and ethical philosopher Amartya Sen calls “capabilities”—the conditions that enable people to achieve what they have reason to value. Things like roads, food supply systems, and schools provide those collective capabilities, and all of them are enabled when people gather and share the cost of delivering them and the responsibility of guiding them toward the community’s desired future.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Our city shares an economic fabric that enables taco trucks (our red barbacoa truck, Zuni and San Pedro, was hoppin’ on a late Sunday morning) and a fabric of public goods that includes a really great library system (this was a two-library bike ride) and more deeply the vibrant cluster of humanity that is the International District on a cool spring Sunday.</p>
<p>There’s a weird naming convention in journalism, the “city desk,” the group of reporters who cover, well, <em>the city</em>. That’s where my roots are as a writer, a youngster at the late lamented Los Angeles Herald-Examiner, the last of L.A.&#8217;s gritty tabloids, a summer of unhappy chaos trying to make sense of a city in the midst of a crack epidemic and the Night Stalker and a food poisoning epidemic involving Jalisco cheese. I was there, working a late shift on the Herald-Examiner’s city desk, when we bestowed the name “the Night Stalker” on the serial killer terrorizing LA that summer. I was reading John Gregory Dunne and Joan Didion and imagining becoming the gritty chronicler of city life and failing terribly, lordy was I miserable, because I didn’t know the right questions. But it got me started on this other set of questions &#8211; the Lewis Mumford and Jane Jacobs and Edward Glaeser questions, the wonky frame around city life, to which I have happily returned.</p>
<p>To my water audience, I promise you’ll find lots of water stuff in <em>Ribbons of Green</em>. But its importance to our narrative is collective action around water as a means to the end of making a city, and to the big messy shared project of what we would like our city to become.</p>
<p>The park we had to bypass in search of a place to sit and eat tacos was all locked up, a response to encampments. I was pissed. My friend, Socratically wise in the ways of cities and knowing what was coming as I checked each of the park’s gates before stopping my bike and uttering an annoyed “What the fuck?”, just laughed. At both of today’s libraries, we saw city security people, even though both were closed. Cities are complicated, no one thing, ever in tension between competing and conflicting goals and values.</p>
<p>That’s what makes writing about them so interesting.</p>
</div>



<p></p>
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		<title>The Bard</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/04/the-bard/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 17:42:39 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Colorado River]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ribbons of Green]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37396</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<div class="wp-block-jetpack-markdown"><p>Neil Innes’s bard in <em>Holy Grail</em> is one of my favorite film characters.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Bravely Bold Sir Robin, rode forth from Camelot</p>
<p>He was not afraid to die, O’ Brave Sir Robin!</p>
<p>He was not at all afraid to be killed in nasty ways</p>
<p>Brave, Brave, Brave, Brave Sir Robin</p>
<p>He was not the least bit scared to be mashed into a pulp,</p>
<p>Or to have his eyes gouged out, and his elbows broken!</p>
<p>To have his knee caps split, and his body burned away!</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Innes, who wrote the song, goes on, but you get the point. Sir Robin was <em>brave</em>. It’s a little over the top, but that’s the point! To be fair, “over the top” is the point of the whole film, but in this particular case Innes’s bard is playing a role &#8211; to not only document, but to support and encourage Sir Robin’s bravery.</p>
<p>But then, you know, three-headed giant knight stuff happens. The bard keeps trying to sing hero stuff &#8211; the “ought” in moral philosophy’s “is/ought” dichotomy &#8211; and Robin glares nervously and tries to shut him down.</p>
<p>And then Sir Robin &#8211; we’ll let Innes tell it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Bard</strong>: Brave Sir Robin Ran Away!</p>
<p><strong>Sir Robin:</strong> “NO!”</p>
<p><strong>Bard</strong>: Bravely Ran Away Away!</p>
<p><strong>Sir Robin:</strong> “I didn’t!”</p>
<p><strong>Bard</strong>: When danger reared its ugly head, he bravely turned his tail and fled!</p>
<p><strong>Sir Robin:</strong> “I never!”</p>
<p><strong>Bard</strong>: Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about,
And gallantly, he chickened out!</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Whether Sir Robin should have stayed and fought the three-headed giant knight is beside the point. I never wanted to be Sir Robin. I wanted to be the bard. But the “is/ought” dichotomy is tough terrain. There is danger when the bard thinks they know what ought to be done.</p>
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		<title>A Freakish Heat Wave &#8211; A Statistical Wonder</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/a-frightening-heat-wave-a-statistical-wonder/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:28:59 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Albuquerque]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate variability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37380</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Words fall short as we watch the West&#8217;s snowpack disappear under the glare of a heat wave so off-the-charts, so freakish, that I had to resort to some pretty extreme math to try to understand how freakishly off-the-charts this is. We&#8217;ve got more than a century of weather records in Albuquerque, with really good ones ...</p><p><a href="https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/a-frightening-heat-wave-a-statistical-wonder/" class="more-link">Continue reading &#8216;A Freakish Heat Wave &#8211; A Statistical Wonder&#8217; &#187;</a>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_37381" style="width: 1010px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37381" class="wp-image-37381 size-full" src="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/reproduced_abq_weekly_anomaly_histogram.png" alt="Graph showing distribution of seven-day heat waves in Albuquerque, with the current one, at 26F, far greater than anything in history." width="1000" height="600" srcset="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/reproduced_abq_weekly_anomaly_histogram.png 1000w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/reproduced_abq_weekly_anomaly_histogram-300x180.png 300w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/reproduced_abq_weekly_anomaly_histogram-768x461.png 768w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/reproduced_abq_weekly_anomaly_histogram-730x438.png 730w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /><p id="caption-attachment-37381" class="wp-caption-text">A freakish heat wave across</p></div>


<p>Words fall short as we watch the West&#8217;s snowpack disappear under the glare of a heat wave so off-the-charts, so freakish, that I had to resort to some pretty extreme math to try to understand how freakishly off-the-charts this is.</p>



<p>We&#8217;ve got more than a century of weather records in Albuquerque, with really good ones going back to the 1930s, and no seven day period, anywhere in the year, has come anywhere close to what we&#8217;re in the middle of. Based on the National Weather Service&#8217;s current forecast, the seven days from March 19 to 25 will be ~28F above average. In statistics nerd terms, that is more than 4 standard deviations outside the norm.</p>



<p>I&#8217;m on statistical thin ice here because we&#8217;re so far out on the tail of the distribution that we don&#8217;t really know what the statistical distribution of events like this is, but maybe once every 300 years &#8211; not for March, but for any time of the year. Maybe <em>once in a very a lot more than that</em> years.</p>



<p> The graph above, based on NWS data going back to the 1930s, is the most useful visualization I could come up with.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A note on methods</h2>



<p>When I worked at the newspaper, I had a practice of hunting out weird weather data to turn into a story &#8211; the hottest this, the coldest that, the wettest, the driest. Weather data is so rich that you can slice it up a million different ways to come up with some extreme that was easy to sell to an editor.</p>



<p>This practice started with hanging around with National Weather Service forecasters in the pre-everything-is-on-the-Internet days, and then evolved with a bunch of crude tools for looking stuff up myself. It was a happy day for me when <a href="https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/">xmACIS</a> moved from behind the Weather Service&#8217;s firewalls and into public view. I would use spreadsheets and learned to write R code and use government agency APIs to fuel my curiosity.</p>



<p>The tools available now for data access and analysis are amazing, and leaping ahead fast. My old pal Luis Villa from my Linux hacker days, now a lawyer and member of the <a href="https://etdata.org/our-team/">OpenET board</a>, has been talking a lot lately (I couldn&#8217;t find a blog post, a lot of this happens on <a href="https://social.coop/@luis_in_brief">Mastodon</a>, which is the only social media I spend much time on any more) about the ways in which LLM coding tools can help unlock the power of open data.</p>



<p>I can sit there with my laptop in the evening and code up a tool to look at OpenET data on water use in New Mexico&#8217;s Middle Rio Grande Valley in a way that simply wouldn&#8217;t have been tractable in the before times. I have a decent understanding of the data, but I&#8217;m a lousy programmer, and the friction of writing code left a bunch of problems that I clearly understood &#8211; I know where the data lives, I know the kind of analysis I&#8217;d like to see done &#8211; out of reach. Now, I upload the job to Google Earth Engine (free for academics!), cook dinner, download the results, and stare mesmerized at the maps. The epistemological ice is thin under me as I look at the results, but that&#8217;s the way I&#8217;ve always worked. Out where the ice is thin is where things are interesting.</p>



<p></p>
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		<title>The Colorado River and the Tragedy of the Anti-Commons</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/the-colorado-river-and-the-tragedy-of-the-anti-commons/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2026 22:43:29 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Colorado River]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37373</guid>

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<div class="wp-block-jetpack-markdown"><p>Some notes on the current state of the Colorado River…</p>
<p>I’m preparing for a panel discussion this evening in Albuquerque. I promised &#8211; three-finger promise, Scout’s honor, which still means something to me &#8211; that I wouldn’t use any swear words., either in the blog post or the panel discussion.</p>
<h2>The state of the water</h2>
<ul>
<li>Per the latest numbers from my colleague/collaborator/friend Jack Schmidt, Lake Powell currently holds 1.57 million acre feet of water above the protect-the-infrastructure no-go line of elevation 3,500.</li>
<li>Storage at this point in the year is similar to 2022, when we began a hair-about-to-be-on-fire drill as Interior raced to figure out how to protect Glen Canyon Dam because of newly understood (or newly publicly understood) risks of dropping below minimum power pool and using the dam’s outlook works. That constraint still holds.</li>
<li>The forecast this year is a catastrophe compared to 2022: 1.75 million acre feet for the 2026 runoff season, compared to 3.8 maf in the 2022 runoff season.</li>
<li>The result, according to the <em>most probable</em> forecast from Reclamation, is that absent some sort of action (see governance below) Powell will drop below 3,500 in September, and stay that way until the spring runoff in 2027.</li>
<li>According to the <em>min probable</em> forecast, which is realistic given the looming heat-pocalypse, we hit 3,500 by July and stay there forever (by which I mean as far as the current 24-month forecast runs  &#8211; as the late Jim Morison wrote, the future’s uncertain and the end is always near).</li>
</ul>
<h2>The state of the governance</h2>
<p>The state of the governance nests two separate by closely linked problems: near term actions and long term rules.</p>
<h3>Near term actions</h3>
<p>Protecting Glen Canyon Dam from that 3,500 no-go line requires coming up with a least 2 million acre feet of water over the next two years &#8211; to get us past that spring 2027 problem described above. There are two ways to do this. The first is to release a bunch of water from upstream, primarily Flaming Gorge Reservoir. How much? Dunno. The second is to cut releases from Glen Canyon Dam, reducing flows through the Grand Canyon and into Lake Mead. How much? Dunno, though we may find out soon.</p>
<p>The current rules, adopted in response to the challenges of 2022-23, allows releases from Glen Canyon Dam to drop this year to 6 million acre feet, which effectively gets 1.5 million of the needed 2 million feet from Lake Mead by reducing releases thereto. Another 500,000 in releases from upstream reservoir gets you 2 million acre feet, with room to do more if the hydrology gets even worse &#8211; which it might.</p>
<h3>Longer term actions</h3>
<p>The longer term stuff is where, as a student of governance, this gets really interesting for me. As a citizen of the basin, I am inclined to swear words at the dysfunction that has left us with no long term plan beyond the end of this year. But I Scout’s honor promised, so shifting to the “student of governance” schtick gives me a <em>view from nowhere</em> way to approach this dispassionately, without the, y’know, words that would have made Mr. Vinatieri, my Scoutmaster, <em>disappointed in me</em>.</p>
<p>Others have chronicled the failure of the seven U.S. Colorado River Basin states to come to a consensus agreement on a set of river operating rules, we need not repeat that here, other than to note that what we have here is a classic case of what has been called the tragedy of the anticommons. This is a situation where many people or entities &#8211; in this case the states of the Colorado River Basin &#8211; each have the power to block a solution that might be to the benefit of the community as a whole. In this case, each of the seven states of the Colorado River Basin have blocking power over solutions that would prevent the reservoirs from crashing.</p>
<p>See above: <em>the reservoirs are crashing and we have no plan to prevent it because any proposal that might prevent it has been blocked by one or more states that object</em>.</p>
<p>The reason behind this is a set of rules written beginning in the 1920s governing the river &#8211; the Colorado River Compact and a series of ad hoc additions that followed &#8211; that attempted to lay out rules for managing the river but failed to include functional processes for modifying the rules when they proved inadequate to changing the situation. We’re now stuck with a system under which each of the seven basin states has blocking power over any attempt to change the rules.</p>
<p>This violates one of the fundamental institutional design principles identified by the late Elinor Ostrom, who taught us so much about how we succeed or fail in overcoming the tragedy of the commons: “How will the rules … be changed over time with changes in the performance of the resource system, the strategies of participants, and external opportunities and constraints?” We <em>have</em> to have rules about how we rewrite the rules. We lack that.</p>
<p>Despite this, we have succeeded in the past, in a series of rule-writing exercises that began in the late 1990s, by depending on principled actors at the state level recognizing that they needed to balance their need to protect their own community’s water supplies against the need to solve problems at the scale of the basin as a whole.</p>
<p>My personal values on this question are both instrumental (things that I think are in the best interests of myself and my community) and deontological (things that I think are fundamental moral principles). The second first: I think we have ethical obligations to those upstream and downstream of us in shared river basins. This is, for me, fundamental. The second is instrumental &#8211; I think compromise is in the best interests of my community’s water supply and therefore its future, because if we end up in litigation and the system crashes, we stand to lose a lot more than if we compromise, are willing to act on our obligations to our downstream neighbors by using less ourselves.</p>
<p>The last two years of increasingly hostile negotiations among the states make clear that behavior that recognizes those principles is gone, replaced by interpersonal bickering and a game of chicken driving the basin toward litigation (effectively hoping to manage the basin by convincing a judge of our preferred interpretation of ambiguous rules written a century ago) and reservoir collapse.</p>
<p>Thar be dragons.</p>
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		<title>&#8220;It is as dry as it has ever been.&#8221;</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/it-is-as-dry-as-it-has-ever-been/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2026 14:26:40 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[New Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ribbons of Green]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Update: Apologies to Norm Gaume and the Water Advocates for screwing up the link to the original quoted piece, which is shared here via Creative Commons copyright [CC BY SA]. Original post: Terrific visualizations from the Water Advocates of the state of New Mexico&#8217;s Middle Rio Grande: Water Demands and the Effective Water Supply Stress ...</p><p><a href="https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/it-is-as-dry-as-it-has-ever-been/" class="more-link">Continue reading &#8216;&#8220;It is as dry as it has ever been.&#8221;&#8217; &#187;</a>]]></description>
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<p><em>Update</em>: Apologies to Norm Gaume and the Water Advocates for screwing up the link <a href="https://nmwateradvocates.org/rio-grande-driest-era-compact-history-otowi/">to the original quoted piece</a>, which is shared here via Creative Commons copyright [<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en">CC BY SA</a>].</p>



<p><em>Original post:</em></p>



<p><a href="https://nmwateradvocates.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/otowi_sjcp_v6.html">Terrific visualizations from the Water Advocates</a> of the state of New Mexico&#8217;s Middle Rio Grande:</p>


<div id="attachment_37364" style="width: 740px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37364" class="size-large wp-image-37364" src="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/WaterAdvocates-1024x748.jpg" alt="Graph showing declining Rio Grande flows at Otowi over the last half century" width="730" height="533" srcset="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/WaterAdvocates-1024x748.jpg 1024w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/WaterAdvocates-300x219.jpg 300w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/WaterAdvocates-768x561.jpg 768w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/WaterAdvocates-730x533.jpg 730w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/WaterAdvocates.jpg 1230w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /><p id="caption-attachment-37364" class="wp-caption-text">Screenshot</p></div>


<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Water Demands and the Effective Water Supply Stress Are Now Far Greater</p>



<p>Groundwater pumping from aquifers hydraulically connected to the Rio Grande exerts a persistent depletive effect on surface flows that was much lower during the 1948–1964 drought — making the effective water-supply stress today far greater than the raw Otowi flow numbers suggest. During 1948–1964, the Middle Rio Grande corridor had far fewer people and cities were much smaller: <strong>Albuquerque&#8217;s population in 1950 was roughly 97,000; today the metropolitan area exceeds 900,000.</strong> Municipal, industrial, agricultural, and riparian water demand is dramatically greater today. Decades of heavy withdrawals from both the alluvial aquifer and the underlying Santa Fe Group aquifer have drawn down water tables throughout the Middle Rio Grande Valley.</p>
</blockquote>



<p><a href="https://nmwateradvocates.org/rio-grande-driest-era-compact-history-otowi/">Full post</a>.</p>



<p></p>
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		<title>Quoting Dorothea Lange</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/quoting-dorothea-lange/</link>
					<comments>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/quoting-dorothea-lange/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:07:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[mind]]></category>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_37361" style="width: 990px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2017773551/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37361" class="size-full wp-image-37361" src="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/service-pnp-fsa-8b34000-8b34900-8b34998v.jpg" alt="Black and white photo of crisp new-looking buildings with a garbage enclousure." width="980" height="1024" srcset="https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/service-pnp-fsa-8b34000-8b34900-8b34998v.jpg 980w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/service-pnp-fsa-8b34000-8b34900-8b34998v-287x300.jpg 287w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/service-pnp-fsa-8b34000-8b34900-8b34998v-768x802.jpg 768w, https://www.inkstain.net/wp-content/uploads/service-pnp-fsa-8b34000-8b34900-8b34998v-730x763.jpg 730w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 980px) 100vw, 980px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-37361" class="wp-caption-text">Garbage disposal in new Yamhill farm family labor camp. Near McMinnville, Oregon. Dorothea Lange, 1939.</p></div></p>
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		<title>Quoting Jeff Kightlinger and Jim Lochhead</title>
		<link>https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/quoting-jeff-kightlinger-and-jim-lochhead/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jfleck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2026 12:16:07 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Colorado River]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.inkstain.net/?p=37358</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[As the former CEOs of two of the largest water utilities using water from the Colorado River, we have been deeply engaged in interstate and federal negotiations on the river for over 30 years. Those negotiations were tough, but the basin states ultimately reached agreement, including reducing California’s use of water by 800,000 acre-feet and ...</p><p><a href="https://www.inkstain.net/2026/03/quoting-jeff-kightlinger-and-jim-lochhead/" class="more-link">Continue reading &#8216;Quoting Jeff Kightlinger and Jim Lochhead&#8217; &#187;</a>]]></description>
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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>As the former CEOs of two of the largest water utilities using water from the Colorado River, we have been deeply engaged in interstate and federal negotiations on the river for over 30 years. Those negotiations were tough, but the basin states ultimately reached agreement, including reducing California’s use of water by 800,000 acre-feet and adopting the current set of operating rules for the federal reservoirs.</p>



<p>Although we fought hard to protect our individual interests, we understood that the public interest is not always served by “winner-take-all” negotiating tactics. Agreements benefiting the river as a whole also benefit every individual water user, and the environment. We recognized the responsibility of the states, tribal nations, water users and conservation organizations in the basin to determine our own future, and not to have it dictated by interstate litigation or federally mandated solutions.</p>



<p>The clock is running out. Unfortunately, the current negotiations remain stuck, characterized by brinksmanship and talking points.</p>
</blockquote>



<p>&#8211; <a href="https://www.gjsentinel.com/opinion/columns/time-for-states-to-reach-consensus-on-the-future-of-the-colorado-river/article_fb9b826e-e280-45eb-aa86-40a2ca60b598.html">Jeff Kightlinger, former head of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, and Jim Lochhead, for head of Colorado Department of Natural Resources and Denver Water</a></p>



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