Jim Cee Sports

Super Bowl 49: Seattle and Under

2015-01-29T14:07:00.001-05:00

I haven't been posting as often, but it is SUPER BOWL time! I like Seattle and the Under in this year's Super Bowl.

The public is on New England to the tune of almost three out of every four bets.
The Patriots have been hot and even with DeflateGate, many think that Belichick's Patriots are just too smart; a step ahead of the rest.
As usual, I like value -- and love last year's champs with the point or as a moneyline play.
The Patriots hot streak since the first third of the season may represent value.
For those interested in a "flyer" -- I would take the Seahawks in a blowout. Seattle "big" and the under -- can be parlayed.

Some analysis I like:

From the Sporting News: The "Linemakers" columns states that the sharps are on Seattle and the Under.
Sports psychology angle I like because they offer a different edge -- are on Seattle.
If you are in a Square Pool, here are some interesting probabilities.

Final Four - 2014 March Madness

2014-04-05T16:33:00.001-04:00

In today's semifinal games, I like U-Conn +7 and the Under 127. Some decent points for an expected low-scoring game.

In the later game, I like Kentucky -1 (line has ticked down to -1 at some books!) and Over 138.5. It's been a great tournament as usual, and I am psyched for today's games.

Super Bowl Pool

2014-01-27T15:52:00.000-05:00

I love pools -- so check this out: Square Pool Odds -- by quarter! Hope I get that 0, 3 or 4!

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

I will have my Super Bowl picks up in a few days. I can tell you that I am on the under!

NFL Championship Games

2014-01-19T12:51:00.000-05:00

I am joining the side of the books! I like both slight favorites. Many fans and analysts are jumping on SF and NE's bandwagon because of their recent good -- and Seattle and Denver's slightly lesser play. However, research has shown that recent performance is often overrated. I am giving the small points.

Taking Denver and NE; also lean the unders.

Tennis, anyone?

2014-01-16T15:45:00.000-05:00

Here's a great story on this quant dude betting on tennis (!!).

For someone who says he bets millions of dollars on tennis a year, sports gambler Elihu Feustel doesn’t watch many matches.

“Which one is Granollers?” Feustel says, referring to Marcel Granollers, a Spaniard ranked 35th in the world. “Is he the one that’s good on clay courts?”

Feustel, from South Bend, Indiana, says he doesn’t need to pay attention to who the players on the men’s ATP World Tour are to double his money. He relies on an algorithm he created using data from 260,000 matches to make about 30 bets a day on Grand Slams such as the Australian Open, which started Jan. 13.

Check this out:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-15/tennis-quant-s-system-doubles-his-money-without-knowing-players.html

BCS -- take the points

2014-01-02T00:00:00.000-05:00

In this year's BCS game, I like Auburn and the points. Too many people are expecting a blowout for Florida State. Although the public is more on Auburn than I would like, I like the fact that Auburn played a much tougher schedule than Florida State.

I looked up some stats -- and this is the widest spread in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) ever in a BCS national championship game. AND -- when there has been a reasonable spread in terms of SOS, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 or 5-1, depending on the spread you look at...

Look for a closer game than expected and take the points.

Don't Bet the House: When it goes too far!

2013-11-15T11:50:00.000-05:00

Crazy story at Yahoo.com...

Betting on football matches has long been an integral part of the game for supporters but Henry Dhabasani's attempts to 'make things a little more interesting' have had dire consequences.

Dhabasani, of the Iganga district of Eastern Uganda, has lost his home as a result of Manchester United's 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Sunday after a high-stakes wager with a neighbour.

Fellow local and United fan Rashid Yiga put up his car and wife as collateral in the deal, emerging the victor on the back of Robin van Persie's 27th-minute header at Old Trafford.

2013 US Open - Men's Final

2013-09-09T14:57:00.000-04:00

In the Men's Final, I see some good value on Novak Djokovic. Rafael Nadal has been ridiculously hot, but also sometimes inconsistent (like the first round loss at Wimbledon) since his return from injury. Historically, based on their styles of play, Djokovic is a better player on hard courts.

Djoko is a slight underdog because Nadal has been so hot. We like that value and see Djokovic as an undervalued number one seed. Some bettors might like to take the +120 that we have seen on Djoko, while others may prefer the spread (typically based on sets, sometimes on games).

It should be a great match. Enjoy!

NHL Finals - 2013

2013-06-21T09:55:00.000-04:00

At this point in the series, I LOVE the Black Hawks.

Besides Game Three, the Black Hawks have been outplaying the Bruins, with the B's being held in the games by hot goaltending. When the goaltending evens out -- I think we'll see a big win by the Black Hawks on Saturday, a Stanley Cup parade in the Windy City.

Black Hawks in 6.

NBA Finals - 2013

2013-06-06T20:13:00.002-04:00

I like the Miami Heat for many reasons. Although some are comparing two great players, Lebron James is in his prime -- and will most likely go down in history as one of the very all-time greats. I believe that Lebron James will lead his team to another title. Miami is hurting a bit, but the age of the Spurs makes up for this.

I like the Heat in 5 games, although I enjoyed the probabilities in this article:
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/keeping-score-key-statistics-favor-heat/

I would also take the Heat vs. the spread as I believe that there is value.

March Madness Finals (4/8/13)

2013-04-08T18:01:00.004-04:00

I am taking Michigan plus the points in tonight's College Basketball final. Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball -- and has a dangerous 3-point FG percentage. Several of my sources -- and I -- expect this game to be a tossup, so I love getting the dog plus four points.

One of the analysts that I follow, the "Who Will Win" authors have this as their prediction:

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses. The most frequently-occurring score was Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Link: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2013/04/ncaa-mens-championship-game-2013.html

Some Good Info for Your NCAA Brackets

2013-03-20T14:03:00.003-04:00

Here are results for the Round of 64 in the Big NCAA Tournament. I am using these historical odds in combination with point spreads for my first round picks.

Starting at Seed 5 and lower, the better seed is 66% or less to win their first round game!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnsAr9S-QB_AdEdmWm9QTTRfTVhER0ZGTUlYb3F2RGc#gid=0

Super Bowl 47

2013-01-29T14:08:00.003-05:00

The big game is approaching, and I will be on the San Francisco 49ers. Some analysts point to the Ravens' momentum, but I don't see that besides a few big wins in the playoffs. Anything can happen in a small sample size, but I believe we'll see a reversion to the mean -- and see a blowout win for the 49ers.

San Francisco has been consistently good this season, and I believe we may see a blowout win like we used to see in the 80's and 90's. Here are some books I have helped to write.

2013 BCS: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

2013-01-02T20:05:00.001-05:00

As we near this year's BCS Championship game, there are plenty of story lines. We like Alabama to win big in this game. We'll wait for some of our regular sources, to add to our analysis and level of betting, but we definitely prefer the Crimson Tide. Sure, Notre Dame is undefeated and eked out Alabama to have the best defense in the nation. However, Alabama also has one of the nation's best offenses, while ND's offense is below average.

The ND "D" might be able to hold off Alabama more than most teams. We see the teams evenly-matched on D -- BUT Alabama's O is much better than Notre Dame's. Some would say that Alabama's stats are even under-rated due to Coach Saban not running up the score.

Alabama has two 1,000 yard rushers and a QB with a 173 QB rating. Notre Dame, of course, is not a pushover, but Alabama has been winning big for several years.

In terms of sports marketplace action, there are indications of syndicates taking Alabama to roll over Notre Dame. Most bets are on ND, but the line has become extended in Alabama's favor.

Read more here (will add more as we come across good articles):

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/21486098/best-dynasty-ever-alabama-can-close-its-case-with-another-title

2012 World Series

2012-10-25T14:11:00.002-04:00

We like the "Who Will Win" analysis as a different angle for championships...

The analysis points to Detroit, based on pitching leadership and fielding consistency. Read more here:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1209051-the-2012-world-series-analysis-of-sports-psychology-factors

In addition, this year's World Series matches up one team that swept their semi-final series (Detroit) versus a team that went to 7 games. Since MLB went to divisions in 1969 (and the MLB playoffs included at least a semi-final round) -- we were curious how teams fared based on how well they performed in the semi-final round.

As we might expect in these short series, there was no definitive answer.

Teams that swept the semi-final round (in 3 or 4 games) and played against a team that needed more games to get to the World Series (2 or more games longer) -- are just 4-6 in the World Series.
On the other hand, teams that took 2 or fewer games to get to the World Series than their opponents (in the semis) are 8-6 in the World Series (this includes the 4-6 sweepers).
That is, teams that had an easier semi-final generally performed better in the World Series -- unless they swept the semis!

2012 NBA Finals

2012-06-13T15:37:00.000-04:00

I like Miami in the NBA finals. With Oklahoma City up one game to none (winning at home), there is also additional value on a futures/series play.

In Game 1, Miami led for much of the game, until OKC's big run at the end of the 3rd quarter. Although OKC is favored, we like the value on Miami. Miami's defense, experience in last year's finals -- to me -- makes them a better overall team. We will see -- but I am on Miami!

Here's the "Who Will Win" analysis that I like:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/

Final Four: ALSO in College Football?!

2012-04-26T18:53:00.001-04:00

Check this out: the BCS looks like it will FINALLY get a playoff going for the College Football National Championship.

Leaders of the Bowl Championship Series will present to their constituents the option of a four-team college football playoff beginning in 2015, BCS executive director Bill Hancock said Thursday afternoon.

: Associated Press; Bowl Championship Series executive director Bill Hancock

Hancock said commissioners from the BCS conferences will present to conference constituents two to seven options for a four-team playoff. Those options include holding semifinals at campus sites, as well as neutral-site games. A championship game will be held at a neutral site, either an existing bowl or a site that bids in advance to host the game.

Hancock acknowledged that if a four-team playoff is approved by the 11 participating conferences and the BCS’s presidential oversight committee, it will be a “seismic event.” Major-college football never has had a playoff. BCS leaders have ruled out 16- and eight-team playoffs.

2012 NCAA Championship Game

2012-04-02T09:29:00.000-04:00

In tonight's game, I like Kentucky to win the championship, and locked in Kentucky -6. Both teams are powerhouses -- and some say that Kentucky is one of the best in history. I wouldn't argue with that because Kentucky excels on both sides of the court -- with excellent FG% and Three-point shooting % -- as well as the same stats on the defensive side.

Sports Insights' betting percentages point to Kansas as a contrarian play, and there is some slight line value based on the opening line -- but we grabbed the -6 to prevent any further line slippage.

On championship games, we also like the "Who Will Win" analysis -- which points to Kentucky as well.

The National Bracket (2012 March Madness)

2012-03-14T20:43:00.000-04:00

Here's some good March Madness info:

We love this link: the "National Bracket" which shows the cumulative entries -- so you can pick where others are not!

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/nationalBracket?entryID=4725386

Some good ideas and numbers:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/images2/SportsInsights_Expert_Bracketology_Guide.pdf

Our favorite March Madness website for bracket pools:

ESPN.com
CBSsports.com

Fading Kentucky -- March Madness is here!

2012-03-01T18:52:00.000-05:00

March Madness is here -- and even the conference championship games has us fired up! We loved this analysis by Sports Insights -- and will be fading Kentucky tonight. Take the big points and fade Kentucky -- and hope Georgia can stay with top-ranked Kentucky.

I helped to put together a paper for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference that starts tomorrow. You can find the paper here.

2012 Super Bowl (Patriots - Giants)

2012-02-04T21:30:00.000-05:00

My free play is on New England to cover the spread against the Giants. I especially love this if you can get NE -2.5. The key 3 number takes some excess value out of the picture, but I still love NE -3. The Giants have come on strong -- but are less consistent than the Patriots. I would take Brady over Eli Manning any day...

Here is some good coverage of the Super Bowl:

SportsInsights' Super Bowl blog summary. I read all of the links in this post: http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/02/weekend-sports-update-super-bowl/
Who Will Win: I love these sports psychology angles for a different edge.
Covers' Super Bowl coverage.

2012 NFL Conference Championships

2012-01-22T11:42:00.000-05:00

In today's AFC & NFC Championship games, we like San Francisco and Baltimore to beat the spread -- and perhaps even for Baltimore to advance to the Super Bowl against SF. New England is an interesting story; they have looked old and weaker earlier in the season, but then finished strongly -- but against an over-rated and generally weak schedule. Thus, we like Baltimore a lot in the AFC game.

In the NFC game, we think it can potentially be a blowout -- for a strong 49er team with the top-ranked NFL defense -- against an over-achieving Giant team. Here are some links to info we like:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-nfc-championship-game.html

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-16/

http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=262219

BCS Game: #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

2012-01-09T18:10:00.002-05:00

We like Alabama in the big game tonight. It will be interesting to see how the #1 defense (Alabama) does... but I like them! Also check out the Who Will Win analysis.

Free Play: NFL Wildcard Weekend (1/7/12)

2012-01-07T04:50:00.001-05:00

Happy New Year!

Here's a nice mention of the Sports Investing Books at Sports Insights -- plus a great betting angle. We like Atlanta as well.

Please take a look at Sports Insights’ series of books on Sports Investing that highlight some of the sports betting trends that we look at — that drive our betting strategies — and have helped create seven years of winning NFL plays.

With the playoffs starting, there are fewer games on the board, so we called one of our offshore line managers. He had the Falcons-Giants game circled and said, “Some early sharps are on the Falcons and that pushed the line towards the Falcons even though the smaller bettors are on the Giants.”

The betting percentages are not as lopsided as we would like, but we like the “smart money line movement” especially on the huge key number of three (3).

Thursday Night Football Free Play 12/22/11

2011-12-22T19:57:00.000-05:00

Happy holidays! Our free play for our readers is the over in the Thursday night football game. Over 40 in the Indy-Houston game.