2) The purpose of this blog post is to send a sincere thank you to everyone who supported me over the past six years. This includes people who gave me awesome advice when I started the product, those who helped spread the word about the product, and of course all the members (past and present) who signed up for the product. It has been an absolute honor to produce content for members over the past six years. I can’t put into words how much I appreciate your trust and confidence in me. I’m glad that I’ve kept members on the right side of the market, exposed them to strong stocks and strong ETFs, and, most importantly, helped members to become calm and confident traders.

3) This isn’t a final goodbye. There is a possibility that I may start a new product in the future. If so, I will email everyone with the details, but it realistically won’t be until next year.

4) For my money management clients, I will still send Market Notes as I did before this product started. They will be sent when I feel there are any important inflection points in the market or anything important to discuss.

5) If you ever wanted to sign up for my Educational Product or ever wanted to learn from me, I am offering one final discount for access to the site until July 31, 2026. Just use the discount code take200off for $200 off your quarterly membership. There will be no renewal after that, as my web team will shut off the auto-renewal after you sign up. I want to stress that I will still provide the same strong content in the upcoming quarter. In other words, I am not letting up on the quality of content that I will produce. You can sign up here: https://joefahmy.com/investor-education

Again, thank you for the opportunity to work with everyone over the years. It’s been an absolute honor and pleasure.

Kind regards,
Joe

The post Thank You appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

I always like to be open-minded when I analyze the market. As an active portfolio manager, I look at the positives and negatives and then adjust my investment levels accordingly. The key is to be flexible. One of my favorite Stanley Druckenmiller quotes is: “Probably one of my greatest assets over the last 30 years is that I’m open-minded and I can change my mind very quickly.”

The biggest positive in the market is that there are sectors and companies with incredible secular growth themes. 1) Aerospace and Defense. Many companies in this sector have backlogs of $100M to over $2B. If you want a satellite launched by SpaceX or Rocket Lab, good luck. You’re likely waiting 24-48 months. 2) Semiconductors. Speaking of backlogs, Nvidia’s is currently over $500B. Micron and Taiwan Semi wouldn’t be expanding their manufacturing facilities if business was slow. 3) Energy and Data Center related. Again, good luck doing business with COHR, LITE, GLW, etc. With over 500 data centers being built in the US, the need for infrastructure and equipment continues to be strong. 4) Biotech. Big Pharma is expected to generate over $1T in free cash flow in the next 4-5 years. Merck is estimated to be $100B and Eli Lilly $300B. This bodes well for continued growth and M&A in the sector.

The biggest negative is that the weight of the market is holding them back. This is important because 4 out of 5 stocks move with the general direction of the market. In other words, I don’t care how strong a company is growing, if the market is correcting, its stock will have trouble making consistent progress. A perfect example of this is Apple in 2008-09. The company just came out with arguably two of the biggest products of our lifetime (the iPhone and iPad) and still corrected over 60% because of market conditions. I don’t think we are heading into a severe bear market from here, I’m simply illustrating my point.

So, what does one do from here? There is no right or wrong answer. It all depends on your time frame and your risk tolerance. For example, if you are a shorter-term trader, there’s nothing wrong with keeping some cash and using lighter than normal positions, so you don’t get chopped up with the excess volatility. If you are an investor, then you simply have to be patient during market corrections and accept that it’s part of having a longer-term time frame. Either way, you have to have some form of risk management as part of your strategy.

From here, I’m waiting for market conditions to improve. Specifically, I would like to see the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 hold their respective 200-day moving averages, signs of the selling to slow down, and see the big institutions come back into the market with more CONSISTENT buying. The headlines aren’t as important to me because when things improve, it will show up in the tape. Also, why should I stress over Blue Owl when I thought it was a coffee company just last month? That’s partially a joke but also making the point that very few people heard about them until recently. They are not going to take down the entire financial system as some people (aka miserable bears) are suggesting. Another positive from a contrarian point of view is that many sentiment measures are reaching extreme bearish readings. Hopefully, this can help stabilize the market over the near term. Again, patience and discipline are very important until we see better signs of health.

I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Market Commentary 3/15/26 appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

In my Educational Product, I produce videos twice a week with market analysis and stock ideas. I also conduct regular Stock Screening Webinars. Here is the FREE Educational Webinar I recorded on Friday, November 28, 2025.

 
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Educational Webinar Recording 11/28/25 appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

1) The stock market still has significant upside. After nearly 30 years on Wall Street, one thing I’ve learned is that moves in the market last much longer than people expect. Just when investors think something can’t go higher, its usually does, and the same applies to the downside during bear markets. I believe people are underestimating how much upside remains over the next 2-3 years.

2) This is a broad and healthy Bull Market. This isn’t just about AI. There are multiple growth themes driving leadership such as: data centers, space, drones, robotics, alternative energy, biotech, and China. This broad-based participation is the hallmark of a healthy and sustainable bull market.

3) Of course, there will be pullbacks, shakeouts, and corrections along the way, but this is NOT 1999. If anything, there’s a bubble in people calling for bubbles.

B. In early June, I sent a Market Note to Members talking about the bigger picture. I then posted it on my blog in a piece titled: Don’t Lose Sight of the Bigger Picture. Here are a few themes I discussed in that post:

1) A new bull market began in May 2023, powered by Artificial Intelligence. Some trace it back to the October 2022 lows, but May 2023 marked the inflection point when Nvidia (the true AI market leader) released one of the greatest earnings reports in history, confirming the start of a powerful new cycle.

2) Throughout history, bull markets have been fueled by inventions and innovations that revolutionize our lives. Examples include railroads, television, airlines, drug discoveries, personal computers, smart phones, and the internet. What do all these have in common? They help to increase productivity. AI is the next major wave, and it’s already driving productivity gains across many industries. This is the fundamental reason I believe we’re in a longer-term uptrend.

3) I’ve frequently compared this cycle to the internet boom of 1995-2000. If this current market is going to have a similar path (meaning both markets being powered by major inventions), then this bull market could last for approximately 2-3 more years. I included the updated chart comparing the Nasdaq Composite from the late 1990’s to the current market, and it overlays Netscape web browser releases to ChatGPT releases.

C. Here is my reasoning for more upside:

1) We continue to see major AI infrastructure deals and CapEx announcements.

– Microsoft: $17.4B deal with NBIS for GPU capacity.
– Oracle: AI Cloud infrastructure expected to grow 8x in five years; $300B data center deal with Open AI.
– CoreWeave: $14.2B deal with Meta and $6.5B expansion with OpenAI, bringing total contracts to approximately $22.4B; they also continue to be a key partner with NVDA.
– OpenAI and AMD: long-term deal to deploy 6GW of GPUs for AI training and inference starting in 2026.

As Jensen Huang said: “We’re a couple of hundred billion into a multi-trillion infrastructure buildout.” In other words, we’re not even 10% through this transformation. These are productive investments by mega-cap leaders, creating real revenue opportunities for smaller companies across the ecosystem.

2) The Fed. As Marty Zweig famously said: “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Fed is cutting rates. This added liquidity continues to provide an equity-friendly environment.

3) Technical Strength. The technicals are important because the big institutions control the market and we have to do our best to interpret what they are doing.

– The 10-week moving average is an area of institutional support. This level has held firm since the Zweig Breadth Thrust in late April 2025, confirming institutional buying support in both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.
– There’s been very little distribution (big down days on heavy volume). Each time the market has dipped (for example the first trading days of August and September), institutions have stepped in to buy.
– Growth stocks just completed a healthy 6-8 week consolidation (from mid-July to early September). I highlighted it on the chart of the ARKK ETF (a basket of high beta growth stocks). I view this consolidation as healthy price action after the strong move off the April lows.

4) Sentiment is still muted, not euphoric.

– Goldman Sachs US Equity Sentiment Indicator: Below average.
– Deutsche Bank Positioning: Above average but not extreme.
– CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fearful (29).
– NAAIM Exposure Index: 84, below last quarter’s average.

Bottom line: Skepticism still dominates. Every uptick is met with disbelief, and “bubble talk” remains rampant. In my experience, real bubbles aren’t called out this loudly while they are happening. Keep in mind that Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in December 1996 when the Dow Jones was around 6400. It pretty much doubled over the next 3 years.

5) Seasonality – Strong Historical Tailwinds

– The fourth quarter is traditionally strong.
– Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 has hit new highs in August, September, and October, the fourth quarter has never finished negative.

6) The institutional options positioning remains strongly supportive of higher equity prices.

– Mega Caps: Massive long call positions in NVDA, TSLA, TSM, COIN, DASH, AMZN, and GOOGL initiated near the April 2025 lows are being rolled forward monthly, maintaining a bullish bias.
– Industrials: Similar bullish structures in GE, JCI, ETN, GEV, PH, PWR, and URI, suggesting large funds expect continued earnings momentum.
– Put Sales: Large put selling at higher deltas showing willing institutional buyers even on shallow pullbacks, aligning with the view that many were underexposed to the Q3 rally and are now buyers on dips.
– Long-Term Outlook: January 2028 options just opened with light participation, but flows remain decisively bullish through June 2026.
– Thematic Groups: Nuclear, AI, Drones, Space, and Rare Earth plays are seeing heavy call activity.

This activity paints a clear picture: Institutions are preparing for more upside.

7) Conclusion

– All these factors suggest that we’re still in a multi-year growth phase. Elon Musk has referred to this period as an opportunity to create “generational wealth,” and Jensen Huang has said “AI will create more millionaires in 5 years than the internet did in 20.”
– The key is to stay focused on the strongest growth stocks, stay focused on the bigger picture, but also take profits along the way. If you never take profits, you will ride it all the way up and then all the way down as many did during the internet boom/bust.
– Again, there will be many pullbacks and corrections along the way. Calmness, focus, and discipline will be very important until the fundamentals change. Right now, some of them are just getting started.

I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Staying Focused Through Volatility: The Long-Term Case for this Bull Market appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

I increased my investment levels on Monday and Tuesday of this week for the following reasons:

1) I like the tight consolidation in the S&P 500 over the past four weeks. I discussed it in this past weekend’s video (9/6/25). Tight consolidation in index and stock charts shows institutional accumulation beneath the surface. Overall, the major indexes continue to hold their key moving averages and there’s very little distribution in this market.

2) We continue to see major AI infrastructure deals and CapEx announcements. Microsoft announced a $17.4B deal with NBIS this week, and Oracle expects their Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 8x in the next five years. Many people keep wanting to call the AI trade “dead.” Yes, there will be some slowdowns and many shakeouts along the way, but please keep in mind that we are only a couple hundred billion dollars into a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure build out.

3) Many stocks that I have been patiently waiting for safer entry points are starting to show up on my screens. Here are some examples (with brief commentary).

*This section is reserved for Educational Members*

I will review this further in Wednesday’s MidWeek Video. Thank you and good luck.

I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Market Note to Members (9/9/25) appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

1) The Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates today and it’s going to be Groundhog Day. Six more weeks of President Trump harassing Fed Chair Powell. Trump won’t fire Powell, but the market’s not going to like the constant nonsense headlines.

2) We are heading into the seasonally weak months of August and September. Some form of consolidation would be expected. This can come through price (a possible normal pullback to the 50-day moving average), or through time (a possible sideways consolidation). Either way, I think it’s worth keeping expectations realistic over the near-term.

3) After this week, the majority of S&P 500 companies will have reported earnings, and the news cycle is going to shift away from fundamentals (earnings) to the bullshit headlines about tariffs, the Fed, interest rates, geopolitical, etc. This could lead to potential volatility over the summer.

4) I mentioned that I reduced my exposure last week to lock in some gains and to help minimize volatility for my clients in case we get a pullback. As always, your portfolio decisions should depend on your timeframe, your risk tolerance, and your overall plan. If you don’t have a plan, I suggest working on one to help you produce consistent gains over the long run.

5) If we do get a pullback, I’m going to put money to work in some of the growth names I like longer term. There are so many stocks with strong fundamentals, accelerating earnings and sales growth, insane bullish options activity, super strong technicals, and are likely going higher over the next 6-12 months. I have core positions in some of these stocks, and I will look to add on logical support. In case you missed it, I wrote about my longer-term bullish thesis in this blog post: https://joefahmy.com/2025/06/29/dont-lose-sight-of-the-bigger-picture

6) I tell my Educational Members this all the time: Actively managing a stock portfolio is not easy and not for everyone. It involves decision making and an incredible amount of mental toughness. Know yourself and what works for your personality and for your overall temperament.

7) Speaking of my Educational Product, the price is going up to $595 on September 1, 2025. From now through August 30th, first time members can use the discount code: take100off for $100 off the current $495 quarterly membership price AND one free month. After you sign up, my web team will add one complimentary month to your membership. Take advantage of this offer before the price increase in September. You can sign up here: https://joefahmy.com/investor-education

I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Updated Market Thoughts appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day market noise, especially during periods of heightened volatility. When investors focus on the near-term headlines such as the tariff news and the geopolitical tensions, they tend to lose perspective of the powerful underlying trends shaping this bull market. The purpose of this research note is to remind market participants of the “bigger picture” concepts I’ve been discussing for the past two years and will continue to mention over the next two to three years.

1) A new bull market began in May 2023 powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some people argue that it began at the October 2022 lows, but it’s all semantics. The reason I say May 2023 is that’s when the true AI market leader, Nvidia, delivered one of the greatest earnings reports in stock market history. I wrote about it back in May 2023: https://joefahmy.com/2023/05/28/the-stock-market-game-changer

In this piece, I highlighted that ChatGPT was the fastest application to reach 100 million users.

Throughout history, bull markets are powered by inventions and innovations that revolutionize our lives. Some examples include railroads, television, airlines, drug discoveries, personal computers, cell phones, and the internet. What do all these have in common? They help to increase productivity. AI is the next major wave, and it’s already driving productivity across many sectors. This is the fundamental reason I believe we’re in a longer-term uptrend.

2) I’ve frequently compared this cycle to the internet boom of 1995-2000. If the current market is going to have a similar path (meaning both markets being powered by major inventions), then this bull market could last for approximately 2-3 more years. This chart from Bespoke Investments compares the Nasdaq Composite from the late 1990’s to the current market, and overlays Netscape web browser releases to ChatGPT releases. Some people might think this is a crazy comparison, but I find it very fascinating. As I mentioned earlier, ChatGPT is the fastest application to 100 million users. Even if one thinks this comparison is total coincidence, what matters most is staying focused and capitalizing on the current opportunities.

3) There is a VERY IMPORTANT point I would like to emphasize. Does this mean that everyone should be reckless, load up on the market, and ignore risk? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! Please keep in mind that even though 1995-2000 was a strong market, there was insane volatility and aggressive pullbacks along the way. For example, late 1997 witnessed a significant correction (including a “mini crash” on 10/27/97) due to the Asian financial crisis. Also, the summer of 1998 saw an incredible scare due to the Russian debt default. Back then, a highly leveraged hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management blew up, and the market only recovered when the Federal Reserve orchestrated a bailout to prevent a potential systemic crisis. My point is that if this current bull market is going to last until 2027, we are going to see some major corrections, shakeouts, pullbacks, and growth scares along the way. One could argue that we just witnessed one with the recent tariff correction.

4) Coming out of the recent tariff correction, we saw several breadth thrusts, including a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT). The main point of the ZBT is to indicate the insatiable buying demand coming from the big institutions over a 10-day period. Again, this is for people who have a timeframe of longer than 7 seconds. There have only been 19 ZBTs since World War II and all 19 have led to above-average 12-month forward returns (see chart from Ryan Detrick). This is something to keep in mind into the upcoming October 2025 through April 2026 period, especially if we see a normal correction during the seasonally weak summer months of August and September.

5) Over the past two months, there’s been insane call buying in many June 2027 and December 2027 calls. Some examples include bullish flows into AMZN, GOOGL, ARM, NVDA, TSLA, AVGO, NOW, and PLTR. If these stocks are going to move higher over the next 2-3 years, that means we are likely to see the entire market move higher due to their significant weighting on the major indexes. Again, this doesn’t mean that everything will just shoot straight up or that any of these will work. It’s just one more piece of data supporting a constructive backdrop. As always, risk management remains paramount.

6) Another supportive factor is the longer-term charts in the Semiconductor sector. The main Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been consolidating for the past year. NVDA, which makes up 21% of SMH, has also been consolidating for a year. In fact, last June, the price reached $140, and a year later, it’s currently around the same price (as of early June when this was originally written). The next two largest components of SMH, TSM and AVGO, have also been consolidating nicely, while other large components such as MU and KLAC are also starting to emerge out of their recent ranges.

7) Markets ultimately move on earnings and interest rates. Over the next 12-24 months, expectations are for lower rates, which should enhance liquidity and create a more equity-friendly environment. You don’t have to agree with the Fed but always remember the Marty Zweig quote: “Don’t Fight the Fed!” In fact, I suggest getting a tattoo of it, so it will be a frequent reminder.

8) Another chart that adds to my bullish thesis occurred recently for only the seventh time since 1985. It’s when the Nasdaq 100 rallies from down -20% to a 1-year high within 3 months. The dates on the left are occurrences after sharp corrections and bear markets. On average, the Nasdaq 100 was up over +40% a year later.

9) The incredible bull market we saw from 1995-2000 was mostly fueled by internet-related stocks, but there were other growth areas such as smart phones, fiber optics, and retail-related (both apparel and restaurants). The sign of a healthy market is when it is broad-based, and this current bull market is more than just AI. For example, I’ve discussed many Space-related names (https://joefahmy.com/2024/10/13/stock-idea-rocket-lab-usa), energy-related stocks, and select retail stocks continue to show up on the 52-week high list. The takeaway: Stay open-minded and be flexible. There are multiple growth stories at play.

This research note isn’t a green light to blindly chase stocks or to ignore risk. It also doesn’t mean that we won’t have major corrections along the way. It’s simply a reminder to shut out the noise, stay disciplined, and stay focused on the bigger picture. If this bull market is going to continue for the next few years, it’s essential that we take advantage of the opportunities. As always, I will continue to share my best interpretation and keep people on the right side of the market, while also highlighting strong setups as they emerge. Thank you and good luck!

I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Don’t Lose Sight of the Bigger Picture appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

1. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.

2. Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.

3. Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.

4. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.

5. The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.

6. As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.

7. One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.

8. The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride.

9. Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high.

10. Never sell a stock because it seems high-priced.

11. I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a new high on its movement after having had a normal reaction.

12. Never average losses.

13. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator.

14. Wishful thinking must be banished.

15. Big movements take time to develop.

16. It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements.

17. It is much easier to watch a few than many.

18. If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole.

19. The leaders of today may not be the leaders of two years from now.

20. Do not become completely bearish or bullish on the whole market because one stock in some particular group has plainly reversed its course from the general trend.

21. Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket.
 
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Jesse Livermore’s Trading Rules Written in 1940 appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

One of the biggest challenges I have with this Educational Product is that people constantly want ideas. The problem is the stock market is not always going to be healthy, and I don’t like forcing ideas just to keep people happy. I think many people forget that the stock market actually has corrections and that individual stocks can drop considerably (and sometimes these individual stocks never come back). Don’t forget the 80/50 rule that I discussed in the Seminar Videos. 80% of big winners correct 50% and 50% of big winners correct 80%.

The title of my 2025 Preview was “Keep Your Expectations Realistic.” I mentioned that after two big years, don’t be surprised to see a pullback this year, a range, corrective action, etc. In other words, chop and consolidation. When I ran a webinar in early January reminding members that we are likely to see a 10-15% correction this year, so many members were upset because they didn’t want to hear this. They kept telling me “Joe, we just want you to be bullish” as if I can control the market, lol. I get it. The past two years have been great, and no one wants to hear that the party is going to pause for a bit.

Now, the same thing is happening. In last Monday’s webinar, I mentioned that we still haven’t seen a valid follow through day on the Nasdaq Composite or the S&P 500 and people didn’t want to hear it. They said but (insert name) says this, but (insert name) says that. While I highly respect these people, I don’t care what they say. I care what the market is telling me. Right now, we are still below the 200-day on the Nasdaq Composite, and we have not seen any strong volume from the institutions. If you don’t care about volume so that it fits your narrative and justifies you being on margin, then do what works for you. I have MY rules, and I have to stick to MY discipline.

Again, my style is not for everyone nor am I imposing it on anyone. After doing this for almost 30 years, I’ve realized that you’re going to make the majority of your money during powertrends, which occur 2-3 times per year. The rest of the time, it’s going to suck (I don’t know how else to put it). That’s why managing a portfolio of individual stocks is difficult because it involves decision making, and most people want to be loaded up on stocks and watch them go up forever, as if they are ENTITILED to receiving gains from the stock market all the time. I hate to break it to you, but that’s not how the market works. Once you accept this concept, you will have much more clarity in your approach to the market.

I can’t say this enough: I am BEYOND grateful for all the members and for your confidence in me. I honestly can’t put into words how much I appreciate you and your continued trust in me. However, I’m not going to tell you what you want to hear just so you can justify your positioning in the market. I’m going to be real and honest, and if my interpretation of the market is wrong, I will do my best to correct it quickly. Again, please be patient and show some discipline until we see more consistency from the big institutions because THEY control the market. A better market could be right around the corner, but it will require more patience until we see the healthier conditions required for a SUSTAINED new uptrend. I will discuss this further in tonight’s MidWeek Video. Thank you and good luck.
 
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The post Market Note to Members (3/26/25) appeared first on Joe Fahmy.

1) At the beginning of each year, Wall Street Strategists from the top 20 firms give their S&P 500 target for the upcoming year. They are usually conservative with their targets and predict about a 6-10% gain because that’s around the average gain historically, and you can’t get fired for making a conservative prediction. Coming into 2023, for the first time in over 30 years, the consensus estimate was for a NEGATIVE year. Clearly, these strategists were affected by the recency bias of the bear market in 2022. The result: They were dead wrong, as the S&P 500 was up over +25%.

Coming into 2024, the average target was 4800. They were basically expecting a flat year because the index closed at 4770. The result: WRONG AGAIN, as the S&P 500 was up over +23%.

Coming into 2025, the consensus is for a +12% year (see table below). I don’t see this happening. My feeling is they got burned the past two years, and they are overcompensating for their prior bearishness. Once again, they are being affected by recency bias.

2) I don’t see a double-digit gain for the S&P 500 in 2025. I can see a positive year in the single digits, but it won’t be an easy year. That’s why this post is titled: “Keep Your Expectations Realistic.” After two 20+% years for the S&P 500, some digestion or consolidation should be expected. Some people might say this is a negative or bearish view, but it is absolutely not! I still love some individual stocks that I feel have considerable upside in 2025, and I still think there will be an incredible rally, but my instincts tell me that it will be later this year and from a lower level.

3) I am expecting a 10-15% correction at some point this year for the S&P 500. I just have no clue if it will happen early in the year or later this summer. This is not exactly a bold call because the average intra-year correction over the past 50 years is approximately 14.5%.

4) There’s way too much bullish sentiment coming into 2025, and my feeling is the market needs to shake some of this out. For example, according to The Conference Board, this is the highest level (in the history of their survey) of people expecting stock prices to rise in the upcoming year. In addition, there are incredibly high levels of leveraged bullish ETF ownership, and speculative call buying is also high based on the historical data. Keep in mind the market tends to fool the majority.

5) One of my favorite Stanley Druckenmiller quotes is: “Probably one of my greatest assets over the last 30 years is that I’m open-minded and I can change my mind very quickly.” I refer to this quote because I have no problem changing my mind if needed. Some might say this is a cop-out hedge, but I view it as being flexible and being able to adapt if the facts change. For example, I realize that after two 20+% years in 1995 and 1996, the market continued with THREE more amazing years. This was due to an invention (the internet) that revolutionized our lives and increased productivity. The analogy is that if the new current invention (artificial intelligence) helped to boost earnings, then I could see a very strong year. I would also need to see an accommodative Fed, but I don’t expect that anytime soon. BOTTOM LINE: Be open-minded and keep your stock market expectations realistic for 2025. Good luck this year! 
 
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.

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