Joel Backman's blog

Forex Economic Calendar Monday 14.1.2008

2008-01-14T10:11:00.000+01:00

Monday 14.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
10:30	Core PPI Output y/y	2.5	2.3	2.2
10:00	PPI Output y/y	5	4.7	4.5
10:30	Core PPI Output m/m	0.4	0.2	0.1
10:30	PPI Output m/m	0.5	0.4	0.5
10:30	PPI Input y/y	11.3	10.5	10.3
10:30	PPI Input m/m	0.5	0.5	1.7
11:00	Industrial Production m/m	-0.7	-0.7	0.4
11:00	Industrial Production y/y	2.7	2.7	3.8
14:30	New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m	-2.9	-1	-1.4
16:30	BOC Business Outlook Survey

Forex Economic Calendar Wednesday 9.1.2008

2008-01-09T08:00:00.000+01:00

Wednesday 9.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
01:30	Retail Sales m/m	0.8	0.5	0.2
08:00	Retail Sales y/y	-3.2	-1.5	-0.6
08:00	Retail Sales m/m	1.3	1.1	-2.3
08:00	Trade Balance	19.3	17.5	18.7
08:45	Trade Balance	-4.8	-3.6	-3.6
10:00	Retail Sales y/y	7.5		6.6
10:00	Retail Sales m/m	1		-0.3
11:00	GDP y/y	2.7	2.7	2.7
11:00	GDP q/q	0.8	0.7	0.7
12:00	Industrial Production m/m	-0.9	0.5	-0.3
14:15	Housing Starts m/m	188	225	228.5
16:30	Crude Oil Inventories	-6736	-2250	-3299

Forex Economic Calendar Tuesday 8.1.2008

2008-01-08T08:41:00.000+01:00

Tuesday 8.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
01:30	Building approvals m/m	8.9	0.0	-2.8
11:00	Retail Sales y/y	-1.4		0.2
11:00	Retail Sales m/m	-0.5	0.4	-0.7
12:00	Factory Orders m/m	3.4	-1.6	4
12:00	Factory Orders y/y	13.6		14
16:00	Pending Home Sales m/m		-0.3	0.6

Russian economy to slow down in 2008

2008-01-07T12:12:00.000+01:00

Russian economy is revealing a signs of overheating and in 2008 is expected to slow down. Economists claim that Ruble may continue to reinforce because of the high inflation rise. Growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia slows in 2008 at 6.7% (previous 7.6%) and the government calculate upon rate at the level of 6.6%. Ruble should strengthen against the Dollar/Euro basket up to 1.4%.
"Russian economy has every sings of overheating, which is carrying rapid slow down risk in future development", said Alexander Morozov from HSBC. Main risks for the russian economy are global loan crisis, world's economy deceleration and the potential price correction for the crude oil.
Government's principal aim in the last year was economy diversification, within the scope of filling it, created many institutions supporting the growth. These will lead away the capital to the non-energetic sectors. According to the president Vladimir Putin, government should focus on reducing the inflation rate as Moscow nearly missed its goal last year. It is expected to reach 12% for 2007, what is 4% more as primarily intended government's goal. In the annual report, Central Bank of Russia provided clear aim for the inflation rate to be 6% - 7%. Vice-president Alexej Uljukajev added that market should prepare for the higher volatile exchange rate for Ruble. What is more, Central Bank allowed revalorization of the Ruble last year against Dollar and Euro to soften the inflation rise and this trend will continue for the first months of the new year.

Forex Economic Calendar Monday 7.1.2008

2008-01-07T11:00:00.000+01:00

Monday 7.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
00:55	Monetary Base y/y			1
07:45	Unemployment rate	2.8	2.8	2.7
11:00	Unemployment rate	7.2	7.2	7.2
11:00	PPI y/y	4.1	3.9	3.3
11:00	PPI m/m	0.8	0.7	0.6
11:00	Consumer Confidence	-9	-9	-8

Japan and India $6 billion swap deal

2008-01-07T10:00:00.000+01:00

Japan and India agreed on $6 billion currency swap deal to prevent possible future financial crisis. In Naí Dillí, ministers from both countries confirmed the scope of the operation and the swap date to be this spring. This operation make India possible in time of lack of liquidity to draw from japan foreign exchange reserves to rule the pressure, which could occur with selling the India Rupia. India will be able to change its own Rupia in Japan for $3 billion and the same price for Japan in India's, if needed. The main agreement on swap entered both representatives in august last year. At that time, there was still an open topic about the volume of transaction and the date, when the deal will take effect.

Nukaga and Chidambaram also agreed they will meet each other twice a year to review macro economical conditions in their countries.

Single trader behind $100 a barrel oil record price

2008-01-05T15:44:00.001+01:00

The New York Mercantile Exchange confirmed that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures. One floor trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, bought 1,000 barrels (at $100), the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss. The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say. A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they claim. The New York Mercantile Exchange said that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures on Wednesday. Some analysts questioned the validity of the trade, though their concerns faded as oil set a record on Thursday. New York light sweet crude climbed to a new high of $100.05 a barrel on Thursday.

read more | digg story

Forex Economic Calendar Thursday 3.1.2008

2008-01-03T20:46:00.000+01:00

Thursday 3.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
09:55	Unemployment Rate	8.4	8.5	8.6
10:00	Unemployment Change	-57	-35	-53
10:30	M3 Money Supply y/y	12.3	12.2	12.3
10:30	Constructor PMI	56.0	53.5	54.3
14:15	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	40	47.5	189
16:00	Factory Orders m/m	1.5	1.2	0.5
16:30	Crude Oil Inventories	-4056	-1500	-3299

Third Fed Rate Cut Expected

2008-01-03T13:37:00.001+01:00

Faced with a spreading mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a third time and hint that even more rate cuts could be forthcoming.

read more | digg story

USD weaker, crude oil and gold higher

2008-01-03T10:25:00.000+01:00

Crude Oil at $100/bbl. Gold above $850/oz. EURUSD above 1.47.

USD continues in weakening after weak US data with EURUSD near 3 weeks high at 1.4720.
Crude and spot gold are at new record highs. Crude February contract reached $100 a barrel and spot gold trades above $860.

Introducing the "strong bolivar" in Venezuela

2008-01-02T22:16:00.000+01:00

On the first day of the new year, a new currency dubbed the strong bolivar was introduced in Venezuela. The result of the government's decision to valorize the old currency by crossing the last three zeroes, due to high inflation, which old currency was losing a lot of its value.

The country leader Hugo Chávez is trying to make easier financial transactions and payments for every citizen of the country in everyday system of payments and strengthen the people's confidence in money, which was destroyed by the inflation in the last few years. The new value of currency has to bind the rise in the prices and energize the national economy.
Bolivar was depreciated mainly after all president's efforts, which country has from export of the crude oil, to realize the social programs. President gained support by the poor citizens and amount incurred, which contributed to the rise of the national economy by 8.4% in the year 2007.
Central Bank before the monetary reform was crusading for the motto: Strong economy, strong Bolivar, strong country. Officially the exchange rate was established at 2.15 Bolivar for 1 US Dollar, but at the black market Bolivar was found 5.60 for 1 US Dollar. Paper money with the highest value is 100 Bolivars.

Last year the rate of inflation in Venezuela was 20% and the consumer prices were the highest in Latin America.

Forex Economic Calendar Wednesday 2.1.2008

2008-01-02T12:28:00.000+01:00

Wednesday 2.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
09:55	Manufacturing PMI	53.6	53.3	53.7
10:00	Manufacturing PMI	52.6	52.5	52.5
10:30	Manufacturing PMI	52.9	53.9	54.4
16:00	ISM Manufacturing Prices	47.7	64	67.5
16:00	ISM Manufacturing Index	68.0	50.5	50.8
16:00	Construction Spending m/m	0.1%	-0.4	-0.8
20:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes

Volatile market, Euro celebrating

2008-01-02T00:20:00.000+01:00

EURUSD

GBPUSD

Monday's profit-taking speculations led to the US dollar rally against other currencies before the first day of the new year. GBP/USD fell almost 300 pips and EUR/USD fell almost 200 pips. This is another fact that trading may be very unpredictable in the last few days at the end of the year. Same for the first days of the new year.
Not to mention that Euro is celebrating its ninth birthday !

Technical FX

2007-12-31T15:02:00.000+01:00

EURUSD 1.4311 base and the resistance at 1.4785.
USDJPY correction back to 111.82.
GBPUSD beyond 1.9986 then move for 2.0228 .
USDCHF loss of 1.1479 put 1.1236 ahead of 1.1170.

One quick...

2007-12-31T12:32:00.001+01:00

GBPUSD
When was it: 31.12. (Monday)
Position: Sell at 2.0050 & Sell at 2.0055
S/L: none (speculation)
T/P: none (speculation)
Status: Closed at 2.024

Expecting price to go back at 2.0050

EURUSD after midnight (update)

2007-12-31T11:39:00.000+01:00

EURUSD
When was it: 28.12. (Friday)
Position: Sell at 1.4609
S/L: 1.4640 (will be changed)
T/P: 1.4570 (or good till cancelled)
Status: Closed (S/L hit)

Well, after reaching the top at 1.4639 (resistance at 1.4648) I decided to open a bearish position at 1.4609.

Possible to reach 1.4688 or even 1.4727 which is a important level
Position: Sell at 1.4667
S/L: none
T/P: none
Status: Closed at 1.4712

Recent high reached at 1.4714, holding the position.
Update: positions closed despite a weak downtrend evaluation

USD, New Home Sales (update)

2007-12-31T11:38:00.000+01:00

GBPUSD

When was it: 28.12. (Friday)
Position: Sell at 1.9922 & Sell at 1.9937
S/L: none (experimental position)
T/P: none (experimental position)
Status: Closed at 2.040

Risky to open a position right before the New Home Sales will be announced.
Update: position closed

New Home Sales: 647K

EURUSD

When was it: 28.12. (Friday)
Position: Sell at 1.4710
S/L: none (experimental position)
T/P: none (experimental position)
Status: Closed at 1.4705

We will see how the 1.4727 level is stong.
Update: speculations

ECB will increase interest rates in case of next inflation rise

2007-12-29T21:32:00.000+01:00

European central bank (ECB) won't be indecisive in increasing the interest rates to prevent emphatic acceleration of inflation. The member of the ECB Executive board Jürgen Stark denied, that bank is facing a dilemma, wheter to suppress the inflation pressure or to support the peak season, which was muted by a turbulent motion at the financial markets. In addition, the ECB's main goal is to ensure the price stability. He insinuated that the ECB cut out a reduction of the interest rates in any foreseeable future.

ECB as the only one from the important banks within Europe and USA didn't draw the line at reducing the interest rates even after the turbulent motion at the financial markets, which caused mortgage crisis in USA. The main interest rate within the euro area remains at 4%. According to Stark, it will last a few months or a quarters to calm down the markets. He added that the new balance is possible only after the banks will announce every losses in connection with the risk investments.

Despite the idea of suppressing the inflation pressure, the rate of increasing the consumer prices reached the 6.5-year maximum 3,1%. Stark claims during the year 2008 the inflation begins to decrease towards the 2% after which ECB guarantee the price stability. The leading risk threatening a scenario like this, are increasing prices of commodities.

Economic expectations

2007-12-28T11:08:00.000+01:00

Two more rate cuts are expected from the Fed in the first quarter of 2008, which brings the fed funds rate to 3.75%. 150bps. It should help offset the credit tightening and again support the sentiment.

The European Central Bank is concerned about inflation, it is expected left its key rate at 4.0% in the future.

What to watch

2007-12-28T09:38:00.000+01:00

Friday 28.12.2007

USD:
3:45pm the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) previous: 52.9 ; forecast: 52.0
4:00pm New Home Sales previous: 728K ; forecast: 718K

Monday 31.1.2007

USD:
3:00pm Existing Home Sale previous: 4.97M ; forecast: 4.92M

Note that the time is GMT+1

Symbol: EURUSD

2007-12-27T21:39:00.000+01:00

When was it: 21.12. (Friday)
Position: Buy at 1.4365
S/L: none
T/P: none
(lets see what will happen)
Status: Open

Yes, the first.

2007-12-27T20:39:00.000+01:00

Here at this blog you can find my recent foreign exchange (forex) trades and some trades which according to the situation I am going to open. I mainly focus at the EUR/USD pair using strategy with (triple) moving averages, experimental fractal table and modified bollinger bands. You can like them, but you don't have to. The aim is to share.

My platform is MetaTrader 4 and I am using it with the candlesticks. I am not using any paid FX forecasts or trading signals, I trust only myself and my opinion is final.

Note that all the screenshots are only for illustration.