Image of John Hall agents jumping with glee

I wish I could talk about all the good stuff we have in the works for our agents, but I have found it better practice to share the technology tools that are here now.  (That way I eat fewer words.)

Last week, we told you about the John Hall & Associates partnership with ListHub.  Thank you to those agents that are taking advantage of the free reports that come with it.

Today’s exciting technology improvement has been the most popular request I have received since working with John Hall.  Because of this, it brings me great pleasure to report our real estate agents … can … now … receive their John Hall & Associates monthly bill via email!!!

Wh–, whoa, pleas-, calm –, calm down, Yo!  Try and contain yourself long enough to call or email your office to let them know you’d like to take advantage of this feature. Then you can continue your screams of joy.

Happy Friday!

Getting your listings seen by more people has the potential of getting you to Hawaii sooner.  Let me explain… the more places your listings show up on the web, the more likely they are to be seen.  The more they are seen, the greater the chance someone will ask you for more information about them.  The more people that ask you for information, the greater your chances of working with more people.  The more people you work with, the greater your chance of closing more transactions.   The more transactions you close, the greater the chance you make more money.  The more money you make, the sooner you buy airfare to Honolulu – simple logic.

Let’s talk about how John Hall & Associates is going to help you get your listings seen by more people.  Then I’ll show you about 200 websites where your listings will show up.  We’ll cap it off with how to sign up for the (temporarily) free reports available from our newest listing syndication partner.

Step 1:  Get your listings sent to more websites on the web.

To accomplish this, John Hall & Associates has signed up with a listing syndication service called ListHub. ListHub and ARMLS have partnered up to make the listing distribution a seemless process.  The data goes from ARMLS through ListHub to their “Channels”.  Channels are also known as website partners.  Their channels include…

Some of these channels were already getting our listings, but having ListHub send them out gives us some new benefits.  The main benefit for you is that they go to more places.  Another benefit is that you can now receive reports on your listings – if you wish.  The reports show how many times your listings are viewed, how many times your listings are clicked on, etc.  This is an opt in report that all John Hall agents have a free trial for until October 2009.  You have to have an active listing to be able to access the reports.  If you have at least one active listing and you would like to see the reports – just ask me to opt you in.  The comment section of this article is an appropriate place to ask.

If you like what you see and you want to continue getting the reports after the 90 day trial, ListHub may want to charge you.  This product is not available yet, so I don’t have pricing figures to share with you at this point.  However, if you have listings, you should take a look at the reports to see if they are something you’d be interested in buying when the agent product is rolled out.

I hope all this makes sense.  Let me recap.

• All John Hall listings are now syndicated to all the ListHub channels (pictured above).
• You pay nothing extra for your listings to show up on the ListHub channels, plus all these sites, plus all these sites.
• If you have at least one active listing, and you’d like to see the reporting feature, just ask.  It’s free until October of 2009.
• In October, if you’d like to continue to have access to the reports, ListHub will have a product for you.

A few more details -

We had to decide whether the click-through site is a ListHub page or is a John Hall & Associates page.  We chose John Hall & Associates.  This hasn’t been configured at the time of this post, so you may see the ListHub page if you click for more listing information from one of the ListHub channels.  No matter whether the ListHub page or the John Hall page is displayed, when a consumer asks for more information – the request is sent to the listing agents’ email address.

We had to decide how the leads were going to be handled.  ListHub allows either the brokerage to receive all the leads or the agents to receive all the leads.  We chose agents.

Aloha!

Here’s a snippet of this weeks Tempe office meeting.  Sorry about the phone in the shot – typical rookie mistake.

In the event your browser doesn’t display the video above, here’s the link – Phoenix Real Estate Market by Jim Sexton

Just when I thought Ruff’s Reports had been permanently replaced with Orr’s Observations, Mr. Tom Ruff of the Information Market hit Send/Receive.  In his latest Housing Report, Tom takes on Zillow, Yahoo, and he lets us know this is the last email to expect.  All further commentary will be distributed through the subscription service on the Cromford Report.  God Bless Tom Ruff and his pompoms.

Sent: Monday, July 06, 2009 12:25 PM
Subject: June Housing Report and Opinion

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

Warren Buffett

A year ago I was batting clean up for the housingdoom.com team, today, I’m called a cheerleader for ARMLS, comments like these don’t even dignify a response, plus they demean my skirt and pompoms. Today, and everyday, our mission is to paint a clear picture of where we are, and where we think we’re heading; here’s Michael Orr of The Cromford Report.

The Cromford Report

June produced another strong sales number of 9,333 across all areas and types, just ahead of May 2009. We are still seeing very high numbers of pending listings and record levels of AWC listings (active with contingent contract). The limited availability of financing is a major factor in how fast these convert to closed sales. June was relatively normal compared with the huge changes of the previous four months. Demand has stabilized at a high level, while overall supply is lower than demand and is still falling. At price points over $500,000 we still have a large over-supply situation, however; the fall in overall supply was nothing nearly as fast as it was between February and May. Regarding foreclosures, after something of a lull in March through May, the banks have emerged from all the so-called “moratoriums”, the trustees got busy and foreclosure sales hit a level similar to February. The resulting additional supply of REOs was almost enough to meet the buying demand and the inventory of REOs on ARMLS started to level off somewhere above 5,000. I think it would be fair to those who are continually forecasting a “flood of foreclosures” to say that more than 5,000 trustee sales in one month is definitely a big number. However these same analysts seem to believe this number is so large that the market must crumble with the volume. In fact, however, the number of lender owned properties listed as active on ARMLS fell from 5,475 to 5,150 during the month. Moreover the average price per square foot for the REOs that sold during June rose from $63.77 to $65.64. So the supply was huge, but the demand was even greater. We will have to wait to see which is stronger in July. With both numbers between 5,000 and 6,000 per month we now have a more evenly matched contest and as a result it becomes a little more difficult t o call the result ahead of time.

Pricing is still increasing

Overall pricing moved higher during June, as evidenced by the sales median, average pricing and average sales price per sq ft; however, certain sectors are still moving lower. Short sales pricing ended lower, as did normal sales. The rises in pricing of REOs, coupled with a rise in the number of normal transactions were the two main factors leading to the overall pricing increase. Single family detached pricing is stronger than for other dwelling types. In many cities single family detached pricing made a distinct move upwards during the spring quarter. These include:

Anthem
Apache Junction
Chandler
El Mirage
Fountain Hills
Glendale
Goodyear
Litchfield Park
Maricopa
Phoenix
Queen Creek
Sun Lakes

In other cities, pricing can best be described as “moving sideways”. In the following cities, there is no longer a prevailing downward trend, but we have not seen a sustained and determined move upwards so far:

Arizona City
Avondale
Casa Grande
Gilbert
Laveen
Mesa
Paradise Valley
Peoria
Sun City West
Surprise
Tempe

The cities where pricing appears to be still falling is now a fairly short list:

Buckeye
Cave Creek
Gold Canyon
Scottsdale
Sun City

Notices of foreclosure issued in June were similar in number to May, and 8,500 to 9,000 per month seems to have become the norm. It is also normal to see about 2,500 foreclosures canceled each month. The current market conditions, together with the usually seasonal fall in volume during the third quarter, suggests that July may be a consolidation period like June rather than a month of dramatic change like February through May.

A Look Back

Wow that guy has a lot to say; now it’s my turn. When reviewing June numbers, the last month of the second quarter, we might be well served to review March, the last month of the first quarter. In March we stated, “You’re going to see a lot of confusion among people reporting foreclosure numbers as new notices hit all time highs and the number of active notices continue to rise. If an analyst is only watching new notices and not viewing the entire process, they are going to make some very dire predictions.” While other analysts were predicting an avalanche, we predicted a controlled release with a steady flow. I’ll let you decide, avalanche or steady flow?

3rd Quarter 2008: 12,495
4th Quarter 2008: 12,308
1st Quarter 2009: 12,833
2nd Quarter 2009: 12,061

In the past 12 months we saw a monthly high of 5,237 Trustee’s Deeds recorded in February and a low of 3,103 in April. We’ve seen some ups and downs in the monthly numbers, a sign of outside intervention, but the quarterly numbers are very similar. Now let’s take a look at median home sale prices. While others were calling for a bottom in early to mid 2010, Michael Orr of The Cromford Report called the bottom on April 6th, 2009. I know it’s early, but again, you be the judge. Here are the single family median resale numbers, derived from recorded affidavits from the Maricopa County Recorder offices. Personally, I think it was a pretty impressive call considering it was published in mid-April. I think that’s probably the reason his dance card is getting booked.

Jan $135,000
Feb $126,000
Mar $120,000
Apr $119,900
May $122,000
June $125,000

Here we go again

5 Housing Markets That Have Further To Fall

I had one last item to check before I sent this copy to my “editors” and the above content appears on my web browser, “Where not to buy real estate. Prices are plummeting in these five cities, with the end nowhere in sight.”

3) Phoenix
Home prices in Phoenix have fallen 53% from their peak in June 2006, and the 2009 data suggest they’ve got farther to go. In March, prices in Phoenix fell 4.5%. The Southwest has been one of the hardest-hit regions in the mortgage crisis. The region still faces a glut of recently-built homes. “In Phoenix, you had some of the worst excesses,” in terms of overbuilding, Moody says. “The surplus of houses is so great that it could take two or three years” for prices to turn around. However, a steady influx of new residents into the region suggests the long-term prospects for the market are sound, he says.

I feel like bopping this person on the head with my pompoms. That’s the problem with linear analysis, they’re looking at very much the same sales numbers presented in the previous section of this report, and they are drawing impetuous conclusions. We actually reported a larger price decline in March, 4.7% compared to their 4.5%. Let me give you an example of how their trending analysis works. The average high temperature in Phoenix in January is 66 degrees; from February to June the monthly reported numbers are 70, 75, 84, 93, and finally rising to 103 degrees in June. Using the same trending model they used to define our home prices, and without taking any other factors into consideration, our temperature in December will be 165 degrees. These are the same people who told you in 2006 that Phoenix was the number one place to buy real estate. They’ve already proven to be idiots in 2006, now they’re trying to tell us homes priced 53% lower than the homes they recommended three years earlier are bad buys. Give me my pompoms.

Zillow on Loan Mods

http://www.dsnews.com/index.php/home/news_story/3185

“The Obama administration announced Wednesday that it is expanding its Home Affordable Refinance Program to allow a larger pool of underwater homeowners refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates. The eligibility criteria for the program has been upped to 125 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, meaning a homeowner who owes up to 25 percent more on their mortgage than their home is now worth can apply for a government refinance …”

To which Zillow immediately reported:

“… the program now covers homeowners who are current but up to 125% underwater on their mortgage. Previously, only those homeowners who were 105% underwater qualified…”

I swear, you can’t make this stuff up, so much for small details. In the spirit of the 4th of July weekend let’s imagine how it might have been as Zillow’s founding fathers came together to choose a company moniker. Okay, begin imaginary conversation. “If we were a tree, what kind of tree would we be? We want to be large and widespread with ascending branches, we want to be a cool spot to visit, but offer nothing of sustenance. I know, we’ll be a willow.” After agreeing the company name should be Willow, they immediately misspelled it and the rest as they say is zistory, end imagination.

http://www.zillow.com/blog/mortgage/2009/07/01/more-help-for-underwater-homeowners/

Recovery

I think we need to define recovery….is recovery the point at which things start to get better, or is recovery when the market is restored to its former or better condition, the dictionary gives both definitions. If you’re in the hospital and your temperature is 105 and it drops to 104, this could be defined as recovery, it’s still a long ways from 98.6 but it is still an encouraging sign. My definition of recovery in the housing market is when the worm turns, the reason being, this is the time of greatest opportunity, this is the time to be greedy, this is the time others are most fearful.

Is he Crazy, or Crazy like a Fox

I have a friend; for the sake of anonymity and this article we’ll call him Steve, even though his real name is Lewis. In the fall of 2004 at the time we were urging everyone to purchase a home, he purchased a home for $196,000. He lived in the house while he renovated the property, putting in $35,000 in upgrades. In the fall of 2006 Steve sold his property for $480,000. Not an uncommon story for anyone purchasing and selling in that time frame. In the interim he moved to another locale, relived the cycle, purchased, restored, and sold; and now has returned to Arizona. The market he is shopping, homes priced around $500,000, he’s purchasing with the cash he made on his last two transactions. Now we’re all well aware of the current state of the housing market for homes $500,000 and above, so I ask you, is he crazy, or crazy like a fox? I know what the housing doom people say, I say fox. He’s shopping at the lowest priced entry point in the segment with largest over supply.

Investors in the marketplace

We have seen an increase in third party purchasers on the court house steps. Numbers for this year saw a low in February where 3rd party buyers accounted for 213 or 4.10% of all properties sold at foreclosure to a yearly high in June when 651 or 12.60% were purchased by third party buyers. Now let’s take a quick look at financing numbers for May, the last complete month where we have complete financing numbers. In May 40% of all home sales were for $100,000 or less. We define home sales as single family residences plus condos. Of homes purchased for $100,000 or less, 39% of these carried an intended use code “B”, meaning the new buyer intends to rent. Of the homes sold in May under $100,000, 65% of the buyers paid cash. It’s obvious the investor numbers are much higher than stated on the affidavit of value. I can’t imagine many first time home buyers paying cash.

Aloha kâkou!

I read the same news articles as you, and just like you I get confused sometimes by what I read. Whenever I see numbers or opinions which disagree with what I’m seeing I review the way I look at stuff. Basically, I ask myself, am I missing something, are my calculations wrong, is there a logical explanation for our differences, is there anything to be learned from their methodologies, what are they trying to identify, and finally, are they wrong? I believe the science of proving one’s theories correct is best done by constantly trying to prove one’s theories wrong.

Over the past year I have written about my dogs, farming, football and adult beverages. I’ve spoke of family, friends and colleagues, I’ve quoted people real and imaginary, and I’ve talked about the real estate market in Maricopa County. We’ve had a few close misses and a lot of direct hits; we’ve poked fun at ourselves and others, we’ve even had a God bless you or two along the way. Requests for our email came from around the country and beyond, and no one asked to be removed. Our mailing list included people from the Camelback corridor to Wall Street, the Federal Government to local municipalities, from the CEO to the unemployed, from academia to drinking buddies, and newspapers and magazines around the Country. If anyone saw our mailing list they would be surprised, at both its width and depth. I started with a few lines and a couple of reports for a few friends, and it was really they who made it grow, I just did what I do best, share with you the knowledge they shared with me. Now it’s time to move in a new direction, so I’m saying goodbye from Inphoman, and hello from The Cromford Report. My company is still The Information Market, the only thing changing is my commentary, it will only be available on a subscription basis through The Cromford Report.

Advertisement

The commentary above is just a small part of what you’ll find on The Cromford Report; for an extensive view of the area’s housing market please go to http://cromfordreport.com/. The service is free for ARMLS subscribers through the end of the year; if you’re not an ARMLS subscriber, there are now quarterly subscription rates at $90.00 per quarter. Mike is also available for public speaking engagements, fees begin at $600.00. Finally, if you’ve enjoyed my emails or found them informative or valuable, they will now be located solely on The Cromford Report as will the free reports currently being displayed at theinformationmarket.com.

Final Note

The Cromford Report has now surpassed the city in England for which it was named. When you type Cromford into your search engine, the Cromford Report is number one. Thank you for your time, I hope you found our reports valuable, and I hope we made you laugh a time or two.

Tom Ruff
The Information Market

Photo Credit: Dru Bloomfield

Foreclosure Prevention Programs and Loan Modification Programs are everywhere!  Do you have a trustworthy source for your clients?  When do you recommend they call and ask for help?  These were my two unknowns before I got a chance to speak with local real estate attorney – Robert Bass.  He said Foreclosure Prevention and Loan Modifications are at the top of the popularity poll when analyzing inbound calls.  Even though there is no blanket answer that will work for everyone, he gave me the names and numbers of some of the assistance services he recommends.  So I did what any good real estate news reporting blogger that works with John Hall & Associates would do, I looked into them.

At the top of Mr. Bass’ list -  the foreclosure section of Governor Brewer’s website.  This is a one-stop-shop for those who fear foreclosure.  You’ll find links to all kinds of helpful documentation such as Information To Help Homeowners Avoid Foreclosure and the list of Arizona’s National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling Partners.  In more than one place you’ll see prompts to call the Arizona Mortgage Foreclosure Help Line – 877.448.1211.

The Arizona Mortgage Foreclosure Help Line’s mission statement is:  To help homeowners reach local foreclosure mitigation counselors across our state.  Simple.  They help you find those who can help you.  When you call they get your contact information (in the event you get disconnected) and then transfer you to a counselor who analyzes your situation and explains your options.  If necessary they’ll negotiate with the lender so you don’t lose your home.  No cost for their service.  The helpful gal I spoke with said they get about 50 calls a day from people looking for trustworthy information.  You don’t need to be late on your mortgage to “qualify”.  They try to help all who call.

The next service Mr. Bass told me about is the Neighborhood Housing Services of Phoenix – (602.258.1659).  They help with foreclosures and down payment assistance.  When you make this call, the first step is to get you enrolled in a budget crisis class.  Once you’re done getting educated in the classroom you get a one-on-one with a counselor that helps you submit a package for loan modification.  Again, you don’t have to be behind on your payments to take advantage of this service.  You just have to ask for a little help.

Last but not least – Maricopa County Community Legal Services: Rescue Foreclosure Line (602-682-3410).  They also get you connected to counselors from HUD.  The counselors determine if your loan can be modified and they also look into the original loan paperwork to make sure your previous lender didn’t break any rules.  In the event it can be modified they help with the modification package.  If they find shadiness, they send you back to the legal services folk to get legal assistance.  There are no income guidelines to get started, nor do you have to be late on your mortgage to receive their help.  The counselors help if they can.

Bottom lines from speaking with these services:

1.  Don’t wait until you’re behind to ask for help. Call them today if your ‘out’ is more than your ‘in’.

2.  There are plenty of non-profit organizations designed to help homeowners.  Don’t pay someone to help you save money.

3.  Bob Bass is a good source of information.

I hadn’t heard that term since The Who performed it in 1968 and I don’t think it meant the same thing then. But, recently Scott Farmer a John Hall and Associates agent in Scottsdale compared Jim Sexton’s office meetings and our company blog as his “Magic Bus”, it brought back memories but we won’t go there! So, why the comparison? Because, Scott has been able to ride that bus into meaningful and productive discussions, converting some into sales and listings.

I recently read an article that talked about the endless availability of information. But most of the real estate information that you get is irrelevant, incomplete and just plain wrong. According to the article consumers just want help from someone who can make sense of a complex housing situation. That’s the kind of information that John Hall & Associates provides to their agents. If you are not currently a John Hall & Associates agent, I can take a guest to a meeting. Would you like to be next? Call me, I’d be glad to set something up. Wouldn’t you like a Magic Bus?

Diane Flannigan
Career Development Director
John Hall & Associates
602-953-4043
dflannigan@johnhall.com

Friday’s before holidays are highly productive work days at the corporate office of John Hall & Associates.  Today is no exception.  While others may have the day off, we’re digging through old boxes – dusting off old photos – editing them with the free service picnik.com and posting them here on our blog.

How about this ground-breaking photo from 1982!!  This is the ground beneath the building at 6523 N Black Canyon Hwy.  Arrows are pointing to John Hall, 2 other agents that Toni could recognize (Ross Caster and Bob Swadley), and Toni Row – our all-knowing CFO.

If you click on the picture it should grow.  If you’d like a version without the words and arrows click here.

Have a Happy Fourth of July!

June’s Initial Numbers

Closed:  9,243 about the same as May 09, +61% June 08. YTD 44,946

Average Sales Price: $171,000 up from $163,500 in 5/09

Median Sales Price: $125,000 up from $119,900 in 5/09

Yikes the ship is turning.

REO’s Closed:  5,247 or 57% of closed.  Pendings are currently 6,068 or 48% of the 12,691 total pendings.

Short Sales: Creeping up with 7,281 Active (23%), +4,500 AWC’s, 2,912 Pending (23%), and 1,325 Closed (14%).

Vacant is still an amazing statistic:
53% of all Actives are Vacant (16,969/31908)
77% of all Pendings are Vacant (9,785/12,691)
82% of all Closed are Vacant (7,544/9243)

Cromford has some new charts that show % of REO’s and Short Sales as Actives, Pendings and Solds. Very distinct trends.

A while back I wrote about a so-called Verizon discount for members of the National Association of REALTORS®.  Unfortunately I had zero luck in getting the rumored price break.  However, while I was going through the process I discovered Verizon gives a discount to real estate agents with John Hall & Associates.

What I expected to be a tedious process that might have ended up with more frustration that money saved – turned into a feather in the Verizon cap.  It was super simple.  I’m impressed with how few hoops Verizon made me jump through to receive the discount.  I filled out this form and faxed it to the number listed on it with a copy of a business card.

Done.

If you’re one of the successful agents that works with John Hall & Associates and have a Verizon account, try it.  If you’d like to join John Hall & Associates you’ll need to fill out this form first! :)

7/15/09 Update: To register your account – click here to follow this link and use your @johnhall.com email address to get the discount.  If you’re a John Hall agent and you don’t have an @johnhall.com email address, you need the Technology Form from the intranet.

The discount is 5% off phone service and 25% off accessories.

Now, of course if you were to ask any one of the successful agents at John Hall & Associates which real estate agency is the best in town they’d quickly come back with a predictable answer.  But when you ask all the reader’s of the Arizona Republic which is the best real estate agency in the west valley and then ask them again which is the best real estate agency in the east valley, the answer isn’t as predictable.  HOWEVER!!!!

John Hall & Associates won two 2009 Reader’s Choice Awards; one for the best real estate agency in the universe and one for the best in the galax…oh wait.  I’m reading that wrong.  The certificates say John Hall & Associates is the…

Best Real Estate Agency in the East Valley

and the

Best Real Estate Agency in the West Valley

Woo-hoo!!  Thanks to all who voted.

Agents from John Hall & Associates that would like to use this logo on their matierals can find it here in as a .jpg or here as a .gif file.

Active Listings – Owned By Banks:

Pending Listings – Owned By Banks:

Monthly Sales of Homes That Were – Owned By Banks:

I’d also like to comment on Michael Orr’s post titled Shadow Inventory from May 23rd.  On that day he addressed the rumors that the banks are going to flood the market with all the extra bank owned homes they are holding back.  The article is well worth the read.  Here are some of the statistics from it…

All numbers are for Maricopa County Only:

18,386   Total Number of Homes Banks Own
- 5,213   Active Bank Owned Listings in ARMLS
- 7,170   Pending Bank Owned Listings in ARMLS
- 477      Temporarily Off the Market in ARMLS
____________________________________
5,526     Unaccounted for Bank Owned Homes

5,143 Bank Owned Homes SOLD in the month of May 2009

Since the banks extra inventory is only a 1 month supply, “flood” or “tsunami” would be incorrect classifications.

Please read the entire article here – get password here.  For an example of how you can use the valuable information from the Cromford Report, check out this post by Dru Bloomfield RE: the Phoenix Real Estate Market.

Talk is circling the office about starting a new series on the blog.  It would be a Monday posting of greater Phoenix real estate market updates.  The decision has yet to be made as to the frequency of said series, however with any new series comes the need for a new creative name.  This is where you come in.  Any ideas?