The Blog of Jonas Martinsson

My Chess Improvement Process: Step 1 - Data Mining

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Tue, 26 Jul 2022 12:58:00 +0000

This post is part of a series describing the process I am using to attempt improvement in chess. The main post gives an overview of the process while this article explains one of the steps in detail.

The first step on our chess improvement journey is to understand factually the strengths and weaknesses in our game. I am speaking from lifelong experience when I say that this is difficult to intuit. It is simple to remember recent blunders and draw conclusions that are not aligned with your performance over a longer period of time. The cognitive term for this is Recency Bias.

So, the question we are faced with is: How do you measure your chess ability?

There are a great many approaches for this, and my choice is not necessarily the best fit for everyone.

My approach is to identify all mistakes from my competitive chess games with a classical time control. Basically, taking the idea of the "List of Mistakes" that Axel Smith describes in the excellent book Pump Up Your Rating, and turning it up a few notches further by adding quantifiable metadata for each mistake.

I selected games I have played in rated OTB games (tournaments and league games) as well as online games which were part of a tournament. The important thing about this selection process of games is that it should be games played with serious focus and deep concentration, so that the quality of the data can be relied upon. If the data quality that goes into the analysis is low, the analysis of the data will be useless to you. Garbage in, garbage out.

As we now have a list of games to extract mistakes from, we need to define what constitutes a mistake. My approach is to import each game on lichess, have the server analyze it and present to us a list of inaccuracies, mistakes and blunders.

For each of the identified sub-optimal moves, I manually add metadata, such as:

the severity of the error,
the type of mistake (tactical, positional)
the sub-type of mistake (for example candidate move, shallow calculation, exchange, etc.)
the phase of the game (opening, middlegame, endgame)
comment

This exercise in itself is very useful, in that it forces you to analyze your errors systematically. I think there are lessons to be learned just by noting down the errors in a list. This is the reason that I scrapped attempts at automating this process using code. By actually making this a labor intensive process, I am picking up insights just by getting the source data for our analysis in place.

The game itself will also be added to a separate list, with information such as color, result, tournament, date, opponent Elo, and also the evaluation of the position at the end of the opening phase and middlegame phase, as defined by the lichess analysis.

One important detail to consider is in which unit to quantify the error, as well as the evaluation of a position. In the old days we used ECO symbols, today we are used to engine evaluations, but both of these approaches are not optimal when it comes to quantifying an error. For example, let's say you are playing a move, which reduces the engine evaluation by 1.0. There is a huge difference between the loss of winning chances if the initial evaluation is 0.5 or 4.5. In the former case (the evalution goes from 0.5 to -0.5) the expected score is reduced by 14%, while in the latter case (the evaluation goes from 4.5 to 3.5) the loss is only 5%. This conversion between engine evaluation and winning chances assumes that the players are of equal strength, and the formula could be improved for uneven matchups.

For this reason, I am quantifying each mistake in the loss of my expected score, so a 14% error means that on average I am expected to score 0.14 points less after playing this erroneous move.

In the next post I will dive into the exciting world of exploring this data to find insights and actionable information!

A New Approach To Chess Improvement

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Tue, 28 Jun 2022 20:13:00 +0000

In my late teens I feel in love with the game of chess. That is way too late in life to have a realistic chance of achieving true mastery of the game. Regardless, this hasn't prevented me from continuing my journey, trying to increase my knowledge and becoming more skillful.

I am now starting a new serious attempt to improve my understanding and execution of chess. Building on my past failures, I will implement a few novel ideas to this approach. My plan is to document the process for my own benefit and accountability, and for others to hopefully get inspiration from.

My Hitherto Chess Journey

Let's start with briefly recounting my chess journey so far. I can safely state that I've invested my 10,000 hours in chess without achieving anything resembling mastery. I started playing in my late teens. Today I am 47. I have been playing in the Swedish national league, postal correspondence chess, online leagues and been active in computer chess organizations. My FIDE Elo rating plateaued early at around 1850 where it's been slumbering for the last 25 years. Around the millennium I took a decade off chess. Then, in 2015 I set a serious goal of reaching 2000 FIDE rating by year 2019. This failed miserably and instead my rating has since plummeted to 1784.

The Gloomy Old Approach

So how come I don't get better at chess? Let's understand which approach I took in 2015 and why it did not materialize in a rating gain. Since the very beginnings of my chess studies I have been attracted to opening theory. Like a mosquito mesmerized by a light source, and just a productive. At least 80% of my chess study time has been devoted to this part of the game. The vast majority of the books in my chess shelf are dedicated to openings. Consequently, this is how I approached my 2015 improvement plan as well. If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. With an Excel-based and Python-supported data-driven approach I meticulously analyzed my performance by opening. I then selected openings where I maximized my advantage at move 12 and focused on understanding the relevant middlegame plans in these opening variations.

While some aspects of my game improved, others remained unchanged. For example, coming out of the openings (at move 12) the average evaluation of the position was +.57 as White and +.35(!) as Black over 131 games with a classical time control. Still, my game results and performance ratings were feeble. In hindsight, it is quite obvious that I was optimizing for a local maximum of my opening game, without considering how that would relate to my overall play.

The Shiny New Approach

Based on my experiences with the old approach, it is now time to try something else. My approach will very much be focused on data. Here's a example the dashboard I am using to measure and pinpoint my mistakes:

In future posts I will dive deeper into this analysis. Also, my new approach is a not a quick fix-plan, but rather a lifelong process for improvement. These are the steps I am outlining in my improvement process:

Data Mining. Collect data on mistakes from my classical time control tournament games.
Data Exploration. Explore the data and gather insights around my weaknesses, using a holistic approach to my chess.
Pinponting. Identify one isolated aspect of my game to improve.
KPIs. Define key performance indicators to quantify my performance in this aspect of my game.
Planning. Create a training plan for improving this aspect.
Training. Execute the plan with great focus.
Result Measuring. Monitor how the indicators change as a result of my focused training. Also monitor the overall performance of my chess.
Repeat from point 2 above with a new aspect of improvement.

At the onset, I feel confidence in this process for several reasons:

There are no goals (not even rating goals), but rather directions. The process and actual learning is the key rather than the goal. It's a mindset taken from the book Atomic Habits.
The process attempts to look holistically at my chess game, so as not to sub-optimize a part of my game that has low impact on my actual results.
The fact-based approach will make it difficult for me to fool myself into focusing on low-impact, but alluring study areas.
The continuous improvement cycle should be a good foundation to build on for the future.

In future posts I will dive deeper into each of the eight steps.

The Decade Migrant

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 07:48:00 +0000

"So ferry, cross the Mersey,
'Cause this land's the place I love,
And here I'll stay."
Gerry and the Pacemakers

Today, I've been living abroad for exactly 10 years. It's a time as good as any to share my first-hand experiences on immigration.

Immigrants are individuals like me, sustaining themselves in a foreign country. But, I am not an immigrant. I am an emigrant. On a good day, I'll agree to be called a migrant, so let's use that term going forward as it's neutral. The distinction between the terms is important, as it contains the crux of uprooting yourself and replanting your existence in foreign soil. An immigrant is identified with her new country, while an emigrant is identified with her old country. I am not an immigrant because I belong to my old country. Despite having chosen my new country out of free will, I am not integrated, and I don't strive to be. I fail the primary directive of any successful government immigration policy: assimilation; or to be less Borg-like: integration. My personal choice against integration is in essence a choice of isolation.

Everyone who migrates as an adult is to some degree disintegrated from the new country's society. Hofstede, in his landmark study "Cultures and Organizations", showed that we can change our behavior, but the core values of our upbringing always remain with us. The stripes of our motherland's culture never wash away. As a result, the migrant is constantly in conflict with her new environment. This doesn't have to lead to isolation, but it is the most natural consequence.

How do you achieve happiness in isolation? This is a big question that I believe all migrants are struggling with in one form or another. I consider it from two perspectives: (1) the migrant as a part of society, and (2) the migrant as an individual.

As a part of society, what does it mean that my choice is the opposite of how a country state envisions immigration? Does it mean that I am less valuable? Does my value derive from how well I perform in my new environment? And should this value decide which rights are given to me? Logic tells me that the value of any human is a given, something she owns by just being. But, the real world for a migrant looks very different. My environment makes me measure myself by my (lack of) language skills. This, together with my lack of shared historical, political, and cultural context makes everyday interactions challenging. As a result, my utilization in society is low. This lack of utilization, deriving from what you could call a migrant's inherent social handicap, must not be translated into lack of value. If we go against the grain of modern secular dogma and separate utilization from value, we will reach a healthier society. I like to believe that human value is always there. This is key for me to accept my separation from society. I like to think of this separation as a Thoreauvian Walden-experience of self-sustainability. As Thoreau wrote 150 years ago: "I have never found a companion that was so companionable as solitude." He shared the feeling, even though he was no migrant in the word's true definition. But you could consider Thoreau a migrant in his own country.

As an individual, once you accept isolation, happiness is achievable by creating your own space in where you can live life without the conflicts between your values and the society around you. In a way, you build your own virtual society in that space, similar to Viktor Frankl's theories about the space between stimulus and response, where your freedom always flowers. Even though his environment, as a concentration camp prisoner, is incomparable to a migrant's - there are lessons to be learned in his theories. If the environment doesn't allow for your happiness, you can still cater for it yourself. With modern technology, Frankl's space can be tangible. It's called the Internet. This space, which Frankl once defined as inside an individual's mind, can today stretch out into the online world. Even though we usually separate "online life" from "real life", the border between the two gets fuzzier everyday.

In the end, I take solace in the thought that isolation from society could drive an individual to connect back to society in some ways.

So don't blame migrants for living in their own walled gardens; real or virtual. This may be the only sustainable option for many of us.

The Paradigm Shift of Daily Planning for Productivity

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 06:37:00 +0000

I have previously written about my obsessions with task management, and various productivity techniques to fight off procrastination. In the past, I expected to holy grail of personal productivity to be found in an organized list with appropriate metadata for each task. Much like MS Project but on a personal level.

This is why I was so pleasantly surprised to find out how much I love Any.do's daily planning feature. In an otherwise bare-bones implementations with hardly any metadata for each task, and other features not completely ironed out - the daily task planning is divine. This is what made me switch from my trusted Toodledo to Any.do.

Any.do's daily planning feature does everything right. It pops up a friendly and appropriately obtrusive reminder each morning to plan your day. With interspersed motivational messages it is a reminder that you should be in control of your to dos and not vice versa. In combination with a super-attractive and to-the-point GUI, the daily chore becomes an interruption with a cadence I look forward to taking on. It's a bit like gaming your to do list, another long-time idea I have been nurturing.

Ultimately, this daily planning feature, has become the heart of my to do list - and rightly so. In the end there are too many unknowns in all of our lives to plan ahead for the far flung future.

One day at a time.

RIP Phrase Finder

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 15:04:00 +0000

Phrase Finder, a quick solution I put together for finding popular expressions that include a specific phrase, is no more.

Yahoo made true of their promise to shut down their free Search API, and with it Phrase Finder. I am sad to see it go, because I regularly used it myself.

There are no plans to bring it back to life at the moment.

The World and You

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Tue, 03 May 2011 17:25:00 +0000

Today, more and more people find themselves living in a foreign country. Be it a temporary state or a more permanent situation (as for myself); regardless, the world is becoming more global and multi-cultural. Or is it? And what exactly is culture? These are some of the questions that is being answered in Geert Hofstede’s cultural research, which now spans five decades. The book is a goldmine for people who are puzzled by culture clashes, and want to increase their understanding of cultural behavior. And who isn’t puzzled by cultural enigmas these days? No matter where you live, you just have to turn on the TV or head down to your local market or restaurant, and you will be exposed to foreign culture.

Cultures and Organizations: Software for the Mind, Third Edition

It turns out that the environment where we grew up ingrains eternal values in us. These values can be analyzed and measured, with averages calculated per country to quantify regional differences. This is exactly what Geert Hofstede has been doing since the sixties.

This book has personally helped me to straighten out two types of question marks; questions relating to why I sometimes feel out-of-place in my new country, and questions relating to how international conflicts play out.

The research identifies six dimensions, where countries are ranked:

Power distance
Individualism
Masculinity
Uncertainty avoidance
Long-term versus short-term orientation
Subjective well-being (happiness)

For me personally, moving from Sweden to Israel, I can empirically verify Hofstede’s data that the greatest differences between the countries are in “uncertainty avoidance” and “masculinity”. Israelis are fighting the inherent uncertainty of life, while Swedes generally accept uncertainty. A trivial example of this, is that during my wife’s pregnancy we have had numerous medical examination and ultrasounds, more than I can count; while the Swedish pregnancy exams are counted on the fingers of one hand. The fact that Sweden is labeled as a more “feminine” country than Israel has implications, on many levels including personal, family, gender, sex, education, consumption, workplace, politics and religion.

I highly recommend anyone to read this book. And especially if you find yourself living abroad, you owe it to yourself to understand why your new life is so strange. There is logic behind it.

The Cognitive Overload of RockMelt

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 18:17:00 +0000

Maybe I am just getting old.

But I simply don’t get the concept of RockMelt, the newest flockesque browser/social-thingy on the horizon. It crams IM, social networks, and a web browser into one glorified application.

I quietly ask myself how I would ever be able to get work done in an environment with that amount of cognitive overload? When accessing a web page I would be bombarded with information from the social sphere. Reading a longer article in that browser would be a feat worthy of the deepest reverence.

On the surface, it seems nice and innocent enough to save a couple of Alt-Tabs to access my social networks. But the Alt-Tabs are there for a reason: to separate different contexts. 95% of the time when I am on a web page, I am there for a reason, and I don’t want to be distracted by other stuff.

I believe the way forward is to simplify the user experience and use separate applications for web browsing and IM/social, so that the IM/social interactions can be turned off when you need to get things done. The web browser is probably the most used application on your Desktop. That’s exactly why it needs to be a workspace that allows you to work without interruptions.

Walden and I

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 06:17:00 +0000

My yearly Sweden vacations are ever so offline. Checking e-mail is 15 kilometers away, and an unexpected liberator in that. So how does this affect me? Well, last year's experience made me discover Honore's "Slow", a short book about simplifying your life, and taking time to smell the roses. During this year’s vacation, I hit the Swedish book shops with the intent to find similar titles. But I was disappointed with seemingly shallow follow-ups trying to ride the success wave of Slow. Hours of book browsing later I came back empty-handed, disappointed not because I couldn’t find what I wanted but rather because I didn't know what I was looking for.

Some days later I received a gift from my mother, a book with exquisite drawings and fine writings from a Swedish lake in the Mälaren area ("Sjö" by Gunnar Brusewitz). I was extremely pleased with the gift and started to ponder how removed I had become from nature. Living a city life, commuting to a cubicle, racing between commitments both at work and at home, and never taking the time to reflect, my life is not in harmony. With the vacation spent in lush landscapes, it is a disturbing contrast. My wife says I get depressed when I return home from summer vacations.

Resting in the grass of my mother's garden, it hit me: Walden by Thoreau! Of course! This book is commonly referenced in the books I like the most. Why not turn to the original thoughts? Returning to the book store I was lucky to find a modern acclaim-winning translation to Swedish. Ka-ching!

I am proud to say that I digested Walden for two months, reading and rereading it and penetrating the text. Still, I am incapable of reviewing it. It is simply too unwieldy for such an effort. What fascinated me the most is how relevant Walden is today. Perhaps even more so than when originally published in 1854. A central question in the book is if we are slaves or masters of technology. I believe we have become more enslaved in the century-and-a-half since Walden was written; today it is all but possible to escape the ubiquity of technology. While technology has enabled tremendous progress and human potential, it has also tethered us to an ever-faster pace of technological invention. Are we in control of this pace today, and will we be in control tomorrow? This is an important question from a global perspective - but Walden deals with the personal perspective. Can we live a rich life with technology? Thoreau's answer is a resounding "No".

How did Walden change me? I try to achieve fewer things. I try to keep my to-do list short. I try to spend more time off-the-grid. I try to reflect before I act. I try to connect to nature. I try to smell the roses. But one thing is certain: simplicity is not easy, but comes with significant rewards.

Doing Less

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 07:48:00 +0000

I’m now back from a relaxing vacation, doing close to nothing. The return to a hectic business life is a stark contrast. This has led me to set out a plan of doing less this year.

But don’t get me wrong. Last year, I had great strategies, plans and goals for FeedJournal as well as for other personal projects. But looking back, nothing much moved forward. I can find no other reason for this than that I was feeling bogged down by the weight of my commitments.

That’s why I this year plan to do less. By this logic, I hope to accomplish more.

As an example, the long promised rewrite of the FeedJournal Publisher interface will take the back seat to a revamp of the existing interface, which by all means is working well. Improving what is there requires some magnitudes less effort.

I hope it’s as simple as that.

Book Review: Switch

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 17:34:00 +0000

Do you ever feel like you want to change something but don't know how? If you are anything like me, this is a challenge you face daily. Luckily for us, the Heath brother has taken upon themselves to create a comprehensive framework for how to go about changing someone or something. What's even better is that they succeeded to write another great book, that lives up to the high expectations from their debut blockbuster Made to Stick.

Switch reaches Gladwellian mastery when it comes to readability and entertainment value. But the true value comes with the concrete framework for driving change. Laying out such a framework follows in the tradition of Made to Stick, and has become something of a Heath trademark. With this framework, driving change replaces the guesswork with a more methodological approach to change where the outcome can be predicted.

I enjoyed this book immensely and I expect to get as much value out of Switch as I got out of Made to Stick. I can't wait for their next book, whatever it may be.

My IBM Interview

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 18:25:00 +0000

Valerie Skinner interviewed me for the IBM “Yin meets Yang” blog. I am sharing my thoughts on agile, Jazz and other software development stuff.

Impeccable timing, since my company today also launches a preview of our integration product for Jazz and Lotus Connections.

Two Books On Presentations

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 21:54:00 +0000

Recently, I had the enjoyment to read two good books on presentations. You know, these humiliating affairs feared more than death itself. One is “Confessions of a Public Speaker”, which I panhandled from a colleague after reading his praising tweet; the other is “Presentation Zen”, a longtime item on my Wish List. I wrote Amazon reviews for both books:

One thing is certain, Scott Berkun has the gift of the gab. The author's personal experiences as a speaker at conferences is greatly entertaining and full of humorous anecdotes. I promptly subscribed to his blog, to get more of Berkun's good writing.

But of course, that's not why you read this book, you want to learn about public speaking. And Berkun doesn't disappoint. His first-hand, pragmatic advice on all matters related to public speaking is useful and highly relevant for budding speakers. The book is not, neither does it try to be, a complete reference - but rather a view into the hard work behind presentations.

Let's make it clear that Scott Berkun is not a glamorous celebrity on the speaking circuit. But he is a professional with a name for himself. I think that makes him even better suited to write this book, more so than a superstar such as Jobs or Gladwell.

No matter if you have any upcoming speaking events, you'll get the itch to give it a go after reading this book. I highly recommend it.

---

Conceptually, Presentation Zen is an excellent book. Unfortunately, I didn't enjoy it as much as I would've wanted to.

Let's start with the good. I love Garr Reynolds's artistic approach to slide design, giving a death kneel to the ubiquitous bullet points. This is where the book really shines, and where you will learn the most. If this section would have been expanded to form the entire book, I would be in heaven.

Here's what I didn't like. Plenty of concepts are mentioned repeatedly, degrading the reading experience when the book is read cover-to-cover. There's also some typographical errors in the book, an issue that always gets me fuming.

But my largest gripe is about the font chapter. There is no such chapter. With plenty of sample slides showing how a changed font can improve upon a slide design, not a single word is written on font usage.

To summarize, the concepts and ideas put forward on slide design are great, and I know that my slides will look better next time I design a slide deck. However, I think that the book is not reaching its full potential, with a halting treatment on slide design - the book's claim to fame.

GCR Ch 5: Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Thu, 13 May 2010 20:30:00 +0000

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts.

“All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. […] Therefore I suggest that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be a mistake.”

Eliezer Yudowsky goes on by describing mistakes in human reasoning and how flawed our intuition is. The heuristics we use to evaluate probabilities, form the basis for how we deal with all types of existential risk. Knowledge of human psychological flaws are therefore important as we shape agendas for risk prevention.

It is interesting to note that knowledge of these very biases and flaws does not make us much smarter. Research shows that when we compensate for our known biases, they are reduced by some 50% but never go away completely.

“It is a terribly frightening thing, but people do not become any smarter, just because the survival of humankind is at stake.”

GCR Ch 4: Millenial Tendencies in Response to Apocalyptic Threats

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Sun, 09 May 2010 19:19:00 +0000

This is the weakest chapter so far. Millenialism is the expectation that the world will be destroyed and replaced with a better world. Millenial belief comes in two flavors: religious and scientific. The religious form spans many religions, while scientific millenialism is best exemplified by the Singularitarians, led by Ray Kurzweil.

While the larger portion of the chapter outlines different types of millenialism, the question is: how does it relate to evaluating global catastrophic risks? This is where the chapter truly fails. While the author brings forward examples (Y2K) where millenial impulses helped to bring risks to the global agenda, there are no genuine suggestions how to factor in millenialism when evaluating risks. The bottom line is “millenialism […] require[s] vigilant self-interrogation to avoid [large risks].” Doh!

Finding a Great Windows VPS Host

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 06:49:00 +0000

I have been hosting my web sites on WebHost4Life for a long time, and they have served me well for years. However, after they recently migrated to a new infrastructure I have experienced problems. They still offer a great budget hosting alternative for ASP.NET/SQL Server sites with lower system requirements, but I decided to take my business elsewhere.
I evaluated Windows VPS hosts that offer an isolated hosting environment for a good price. Here are the shortlist of the Windows virtual private servers that I considered:
1and1
I immediately recognized the brand from magazine ads. Their Windows VPS offerings are very attractive on paper, but their system specs seemed somewhat outdated, especially their choice of database server. They offer MSDE 2000, which Microsoft stopped supporting two years ago. I didn’t really see this as a showstopper, and sent a message to their sales department to understand if I would be able to upgrade the database server myself. After over 2 business days I am still waiting for a reply to this inquiry, or indication that they are looking into it. Needless to say, if this is the response time for sales requests, I don’t want to even think of how tech support works.
UltraHosting
This host has great reviews and they support Xen technology, which prevents them from overselling RAM – a common practice in the VPS space. Their prices are attractive, but a bit steeper than 1and1. I went ahead and decided to pay more for better quality and support. But, as I checked out my order I found out that they require a credit card to be associated with PayPal, a practice that most other online merchants don’t follow. This was a no go for me.
VPSLand
VPSLand offers great prices for great system specs. I was very close to choosing them, but then I read several online reviews about how they consistently suffer from downtime and slow pings. Perhaps they could have been a good host but I didn’t want to take the risk.
KickAss VPS
KickAss VPS has a great reputation in hosting forums, and good system specs to go with that. Their prices are a bit above the previous hosts, although they have a price guarantee. If you find a cheaper service with the same specs they match that price, and give you and additional 10% off. Also, they replied very quickly to my e-mail questions. This is the host I finally went with and I hope it will serve me for a long time.

No More Attachments?

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Sat, 10 Apr 2010 22:01:00 +0000

The last couple of months have proven hectic, as Mainsoft pushed out Harmony for both Google Docs and SharePoint. Harmony is a free product that lets you access your online documents from an Outlook sidebar. As Harmony’s product manager it’s been one hell of a ride defining and seeing the product through to launch. You can see (hear) me presenting a video for each product on the respective product pages for Google Docs and SharePoint. After all the hard work it is great to read the write-ups in TechCrunch, Lifehacker, and other sites.

So what is Harmony in a nutshell?

Having your shared documents available in Outlook enables some cool new features which changes the game for how you think about e-mail and attachments. You can drag attachments from incoming messages to the Google Docs or SharePoint, where they are easily shared with anyone.

And when you send a message, linked documents are automatically shared with recipients, regardless if they have a Google account or not. And when you send an attachment, Harmony suggests that you replace it with a link to a shared document instead. Hence, Harmony’s tagline: “No Attachments”.

The Lost Symbol

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 08:28:00 +0000

I just finished Dan Brown’s latest book, The Lost Symbol. I enjoyed it to a great extent, especially being introduced to curious new subjects such as Noetic theory. As with most commercial successes, The Lost Symbol did not go down well with critics. But of course, the culture elite can’t stay elitist if their taste blends with the populace. Good for them.

Just as with Brown’s previous book, The Da Vinci Code, it sparked my interest in code breaking. Researching cryptography, I stumbled upon the tweleve discussion forum, dedicated to solving puzzles and treasure hunts. There, I discovered two intriguing unsolved puzzles: Maranatha and Quest for the Golden Eagle. It doesn’t hurt that there is a million dollar prize in each puzzle. Wish me luck.

GCR Ch 3: Evolution Theory and the Future of Humanity

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:35:00 +0000

The book’s chapter 3 discusses our understanding of evolution, given the long perspective.

Evolution is not unique and has occurred several times in our history. Tool-making hominoids with communication skills have evolved independently in Africa (our ancestors), Europe (the ancestors of the Neanderthal) and south-east Asia (“hobbits”).

Environmental change is the major catalyst to drive evolution. Once species have filled their niches in the wake of an environmental change, adaption of organisms is only fine-tuned.

It has also been shown that in the last 40,000 years evolution has been driving our species forward, 100 times faster than before. Why this is so, is still unclear.

Today, psychological pressures and new environmental factors decide who among us reproduce.

When considering evolution, it is easy to focus on the physical adaption of organisms, but as humans evolve, it becomes increasingly important to consider intellectual evolution. We are still struggling to understand how to measure intelligence well. IQ is only one aspect of human intelligence, and has a low degree of inheritance. We still need to figure out if and how evolution can help humankind grow smarter over time. Although, in the near future, technical progress and the singularity are likely to supersede the process of evolution when it comes to improving the human race .

So how is evolution relevant to existential risks? It all comes down to how capable we will be in adapting to a changing environment. History has given us many examples of cultures going under because of their failure to survive a new environment. For example, the medieval Norse colonists in Greenland died out as they failed to change their eating habits, in a changing climate.

But, if climate change gives us enough time, our behavioral and societal models will have time to adapt.

The Maturity of Agile Development

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 21:01:00 +0000

Recent discussions about the coexistence of the Capability Maturity Model (CMM) and agile development has prompted me to revisit my master's thesis on the subject.

Ten years ago, I was one of the first practitioners of eXtreme Programming (XP), a software development method that belongs to the agile development movement. The big stumbling block of these methods has always been how to introduce it in an organization. Mentioning the words "extreme programming" makes you fight an uphill battle from the start. Agile is definitely a better word when presenting it. But still, the adoption of agile development requires a shift in the organizational culture, which historically has been more formal.

After having participated in and coached a few pilot projects, I started to think about how to best introduce the method in a software organization. This thinking caused me to return to university to research the topic - the result was a master's thesis on the subject.

During my research, I considered the existing and accepted certification levels in the software industry and compared it with the agile way of developing software. The Capability Maturity Model (CMM) is the most widely accepted definition for measuring process and organizational maturity. It was developed by academics and industry experts and is used by the largest governmental organizations in the world. If I could find that XP was compatible with the CMM, it would be so much easier to introduce in software development organizations.

What I found went beyond compatibility between the CMM and XP - I actually found that XP is an excellent springboard for organizations that want to reach greater levels of CMM maturity! I presented my findings at the XP2003 conference and these results are still used by many organizations to convince risk-averse managers of the traits of agile development. Maturing Extreme Programming Through The CMM

It is interesting to see that today, the members of the agile community are still fighting the same battle. Scott Ambler, IBM's agile expert and evangelist, is working on an Agile Process Maturity Model (APMM), for the same reasons: to ease that adoption of agile methods in traditional software organizations.

Google Drive Templates For Product Managers

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:02:00 +0000

I created two new Google Drive document templates for Product Management work: a Product Requirements Document (PRD) and a Functional Specifications Document (FSD). These are central documents in the product development lifecycle. The requirements document is used for a product's business and marketing requirements, while the specification document further details how those requirements will be implemented in the product.

I'll start to dogfood these templates right away and will make updates along the way as needed. Please let me know if you find them useful or would like to see any changes!

UN's Stagnating Initiatives Against Bioterrorism

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 03:23:00 +0000

With UN's failure to implement the strategy laid out by the former Secretary-General, who will protect humanity from one the most dangerous threats, bioterrorism?

With great foresight, former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan brought the threat of bioterrorism to the UN agenda in 2006. In his recommendations for a global counter-terrorism strategy he writes: "The most important under-addressed threat relating to terrorism, and one which acutely requires new thinking on the part of the international community, is that of terrorists using a biological weapon. [...] They can [...] bring incalculable harm if put to destructive use by those who seek to develop designer diseases and pathogens. The answer to biotechnology’s dual-use dilemma will look very different [than that of nuclear weapons]. But the approach to developing it must be equally ambitious.[...] What we need now is a forum that will bring together the various stakeholders — Governments, industry, science, public health, security, the public writ large — into a common programme, built from the bottom up [...].The United Nations is well placed to coordinate and facilitate such a forum, and to bring to the table a wide range of relevant actors."

Later that same year, the United Nations adopted its Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (resolution 60/288). In regard to biological threats it calls for: "To invite the United Nations system to develop, together with Member States, a single comprehensive database on biological incidents, ensuring that it is complementary to the International Criminal Police Organization's contemplated Biocrimes Database. We also encourage the Secretary-General to update the roster of experts and laboratories, as well as the technical guidelines and procedures, available to him for the timely and efficient investigation of alleged use. In addition, we note the importance of the proposal of the Secretary-General to bring together, within the framework of the United Nations, the major biotechnology stakeholders, including industry, scientific community, civil society and governments, into a common programme aimed at ensuring that biotechnology's advances are not used for terrorist or other criminal purposes but for the public good, with due respect to the basic international norms on intellectual property rights."

With the new UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, who took office in 2007, the initiatives have unfortunately stagnated. A worrying UN fact sheet dated March 2009 outlines the implementation of the strategy so far.

Firstly, The UN Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF) does not include any entity or initiative dedicated to combating bioterror. Ban Ki-moon also admits that "there is no such thing as a bioterrorism unit within the UN system". Other important terrorist threats, such as the IAEA for nuclear matters and OPCW for chemical weapons, all have dedicated task forces, except for bioterrorism. Instead, the UN is handing over the task to existing bodies, such as the WHO and INTERPOL. The WHO's meager page on bioterrorism is not assuring in any way. INTERPOL's bioterror landing page is even more worrying, where an "upcoming" conference planned for March 2005(!) is highlighted. The world should tremble.

Secondly, the UN implementation haphazardly bundles biological threats with other types of terrorist threats. It is important to understand that biological threats pose a new set of problems that has not been previously encountered, and that strategies for fighting chemical and nuclear threats are not efficient when combating bioterrorism. Biological agents are relatively easy and inexpensive to obtain or produce; they can be easily disseminated; and they can cause widespread panic beyond any actual physical damage.

Thirdly, where is the promised UN-moderated forum/programme set out in the strategy document?

In contrast to the UN, the US government spends over $2B a year to prevent bio-attacks.

A unilateral approach is not enough to combat bioterrorism. We need a UN-led international forum today for going forward as a civilization and preventing biological terror attacks. It is critical that global policies and action plans are put in place to deal with "the most important under-addressed threat relating to terrorism". The global community cannot afford a late and disunited arrival - we might not get a second chance to learn from our mistakes.

Follow-up posts will address why bioterrorism is becoming rapidly more dangerous and what I believe that the global community should do to counter it.

Interview with Henrik Blomgren

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:50:00 +0000

For years, I've unsuccessfully tried to get many friends to start blogging. One of them is Henrik Blomgren, software consultant and small business owner.

Henrik and I go way back. At the turn of the millennium, we were both leading software teams at Swedish Framfab. As the IT bubble burst, and our hopes with it, Henrik built his own software firm and his journey has now taken him all the way to Zurich, Switzerland. Below is a short interview I did with him a while back.

Me: What motivated you to jump off the corporate bandwagon and start your own business?
Henrik: Two factors, the first not being in a position to influence or change things at Framfab, the second was a number of ideas I had back then that was not possible to realize as an employee.

Me: As a business owner, you currently focus on providing services over products. Was that a conscious decision and which do you think is the smarter strategy?
Henrik: Initially, my focus (this was 2002) was on creating niched software products, but before I got started I was offered a few short-term contract offers which I accepted - primarily in order to build up some capital. After a year, the market conditions got better and there were a lot of interesting contract jobs out there so I continued, with longer contracts and better rates.

I would not call it a smarter strategy, but much less risky and a much more predictable way to earn a monthly income.

Me: After running your own company for a couple of years you moved everything to Switzerland. How come?
Henrik: Again, multiple reasons. Compared to Sweden, Switzerland is a much more business-oriented country and offers considerably lower tax rates on both personal and corporate levels. This combined with providing equal or higher quality of living was an important factor. Being centrally located in Europe was another, both for business purposes and if you like to travel around. However, being close to the Alps has turned out to be the greatest bonus, especially during the winter.

Me: You introduced me to the book the 4-Hour Workweek. Are you there yet?
Henrik: No, I work considerably less hours now, and travel more, but I'm not sure that can be accredited to Timothy Ferriss.

Me: What is important to you? Where do you see yourself and your business ten years ahead?
Henrik: I have no idea. It's going to be interesting to see how the current crisis plays out; my guess is that the next ten years will be much tougher than the previous ten. Business opportunities will be fewer and consumers will be able to spend less, especially on technology. This prediction is based on the view that credit has been cheap and easily obtainable, and consumption (both private and business) has been driven by debt to a large extent.

GCR Ch 2: Long-Term Astrophysical Processes

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:26:00 +0000

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts.

The book begins with discussing long-term astrophysical processes with a focus on the lifespans of our planet, solar system, galaxy and the Universe. These are the least immediate, but at the same time the most difficult risks to avoid. As such, there are not much we can do about them, right now. Hopefully, if we succeed to manage the other risks we're facing now and will face in the future, we will reach a point in time where we will have to deal the timely demise of the Earth, and later, the Universe.

3.5 billion years from now, the Sun will have exhausted its storage of hydrogen and increased its temperature enough for Earth's biosphere to be unable to sustain biological life. But even before Earth's temperature reaches that level, already 1 billion years from now it will be hot enough to disqualify all complex life. 7 billion years from now, the Sun, expanding as a red giant, will engulf Earth's orbit and devour it. A long-term goal for our species must be to find another habitable planet by the time that these events play out. A rescue plan for the Earth would be if we, or a passing star system, could eject it from its orbit before the Sun swallows the planet. In such a scenario we would have to rely on Earth's internal energy source. This is actually the only human intervention that is being addressed in this chapter of the book.

Our current model of the Universe tells us that it will continue to expand indefinitely, or at least long enough for all its major bodies to die a timely death. Perhaps this is the ultimate risk, a process which neither we nor anybody else can do anything to stop. It goes without saying that the current understanding of the Universe is not complete. There are still much to be learned, and with new discoveries our model of the Universe will change as well. The smallest stars in the universe will shine the longest, but even they expire after some trillion years. Their expiry, in combination with the consumption of hydrogen gas used in star formation, sets the time for the last stars to stop shining at about 100 trillion years ahead. This number should be compared to the current age of the young Universe, which is 14 billion years.

This is the end as we know it today. Let’s see how far we can get…

Sign-Up Closes For Online Chess Match Championships

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Tue, 26 May 2009 21:08:00 +0000

The sign-up period for the inaugural Online Chess Match Championships is now over. The list of registered players for the two divisions are:

Open Division

Player	Rating
ZwaartePaard	1942
Valiantangel	1866
leomalagar	1864
Acho	1861
tseltzer	1850
jonasil	1840
Tensaigg	1759
castleden	1745
SklavinLydia (tentative)	1737
surGeonGG	1660
TonyPrice	-
jumong (tentative)	-

Under 1600 Division

Player	Rating
offtherook	1595
ranban	1576
farbror	1561
jerichob	1530
AHappyLearner	1484
caleblaziken	1456
edwaxx	1413
KasparovsDog	1385
Avie	1021

So, the Open Division will host 10-12 players and the U1600 Division 9.

I was considering different pairing systems for setting up the single-elimination cup brackets, including adopting the system used in the tennis ATP tour. After consulting with FICS user tseltzer, I am instead opting for a Swiss-like cup system where the top seed is not meeting the bottom seed, but instead the top seed from the bottom half.

Pairings will be posted in a couple of days on the Online Chess Match Championships site.

On Survival

noreply@blogger.com (Jonas Martinsson) — Wed, 20 May 2009 19:54:00 +0000

What if humanity were extinguished right now?

Have you ever considered that scenario?

No one can provide an accurate probability of such an event happening, but the fact that it could happen is indisputable. While personal survival is a major force for the individual, humankind's survival is the ultimate goal for us as a species. Individuals do almost anything in their power to prevent their own destruction, but what are we doing as a species to ensure our own survival?

I would argue that we're spending more effort protecting specific zoological and botanical species than ourselves. Although humanity is not an extinguished species, there are several kinds of events which could wipe us all out in a matter of hours. We cannot continue to neglect the importance of protecting the survival of humankind.

Threats are manifold and I plan to discuss these in future posts as I digest the book Global Catastrophic Risks, which deals with these important issues.

Chapters I have read:

Chapter 2: Long-Term Astrophysical Processes

Chapter 3: Evolution Theory and the Future of Humanity

Chapter 4: Millenial Tendencies in Response to Apocalyptic Threats

Chapter 5: Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks