Jon's Weather Blog

More on Albedo

2015-11-30T20:12:00.002-05:00

Not much to post today, but I wanted to follow up on my last post. Last week I found this article and it fit in with what I wrote last time. This article gives some more insight into the possible effects of Albedo on temperatures. However, it doesn't actually say either way. Which is fine, more data is likely needed.

Take a look at this article.

-Jon

Increasing temperatures - another possible step toward a solution

2015-11-21T07:57:00.002-05:00

It has been very hard to ignore all the talk about "global warming" and "climate change" lately. I want to set one thing straight off the top. Please don't refer to "global warming" as "climate change". The climate is always changing, its an incorrect statement. In fact, global warming might be an incorrect statement as well. I'll touch on this statement a bit more later.

I've been thinking about this quite a bit lately. When I woke up early this morning and this was the first thing on my brain, I decided the only way to get it out what to write about it. I believe I have an idea that can help to halt the rise in temperatures. The problem is I lack the knowledge and resources to do something about it. I haven't been able to come up with an alternative to what currently exists.

If you were to look out your front door right now, what is one of the first things you see? Something you rely on nearly every day. A road. This connects to other roads, that connect to even more that connect to wider roads. These roads stretch on for millions of miles. What are roads primarily made of? Rock and/or stone.

Now take a moment and imagine a sunny day in July. Aside from comfort-ability, where would you rather lay, a road or the grass? I'm guessing you answered grass. Why? Perhaps because its cooler. Have you ever been out at night in the middle of summer, after the sun has set and felt heat radiating off pavement? Then felt heat coming off the grass? There's a big difference.

Ok, so there is more to this than holding and radiant heat. And roads are only a part of it. The general problem is a "darkening" of the earth. I'm talking about Albedo. This is basically the reflective-ness of an object. What color is your roof? I'm guessing its darker than the grass in most cases. Coincidentally, most roofs are made of stone or metal. Both get very hot in direct sunlight and then hold onto that heat longer than a grass covered field would.

We have done a considerable amount of expanding of civilized areas and have erected many, many structures. All of these structures have a minuscule impact on the Earth's albedo. However, if you add up all of it together, the impact becomes much greater. This is not a new idea, the concern about this has been around for at least 10 years, but it's not being discussed.

So why am I talking about this and not greenhouse gases and carbon emissions. Well, for one, that's is over discussed. Secondly, steps are being taken here, we still have a LONG way to go, but we have cut back on greenhouse gas emissions and it IS getting better. However, temperatures are still rising. Basically, we need to do more.

Early I mentioned that calling it "global warming" is somewhat of an incorrect statement. Here's why: Growth of Sea Ice. So Antarctic sea ice is growing. Hard to have "global" warming, when some areas are getting cooler. Obviously Antarctica is in the Southern Hemisphere. The amount of land and population in the Southern Hemisphere is MUCH lower than the Northern Hemisphere. Less land, less population, not as many roads and structures, cooler temperatures. Coincidence? I'm not sure, but it seems rather telling.

So what do we need to do? We need to "green" up the Earth again. We need to change what makes up our roads. We need to continue to cut back on greenhouse gases and carbon emissions. If Antarctica is any clue, we can fix this. We NEED to fix this. We've created this problem, so we need a solution.

I'd love to hear your thoughts. If you think I'm crazy, let me hear. I'd love to have a discussion.

-Jon

Hurricane Patricia

2015-10-23T10:12:00.002-04:00

Howdy folks!

I know it is has been a very long time since I last posted. Been away from the weather game for awhile. However, this event is too historic not to post something about. I can't ignore it.

We here in the United States, especially the Northeastern US have a very isolated view of the weather. Everyone always thinks that their weather is worse than anyone else's weather. All parts of the Earth gets their fair of nastiness and the Pacific Coast of Mexico is going to get more than they can handle.

Hurricane Patricia developed extremely rapidly in the last 30 hours. From a tropical storm to the strongest ever recorded hurricane in the Western Hemisphere. It is only hours from landfall along the West Coast of Mexico. Not only is this a historic storm, it will also be devastating. NOT just to Mexico. Flooding rains from the remnants of Patricia will surge into the Southern Plains of the United States this weekend.

I can't really do justice to the historic nature of this storm, so I thought I would share some links from people who are experts. Marshall Shepard is the former director of the NWS and currently hosts the show Weather Geeks on the The Weather Channel. He touches on the link between Patricia and El Nino.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/10/23/hurricane-patricia-is-something-we-havent-seen-before-and-there-may-be-an-el-nino-connection/

Here is a link to a satellite image of Patricia over the last day and a half or so:

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CSAOUzpWwAAKS2v.mp4

Lastly, please keep our southern neighbors in your thoughts this weekend and beyond.

I will try to be more active as we head into the cold weather months!

-Jon

Model convergence

2013-03-05T20:54:00.001-05:00

If you live outside of MA-128, be ready for a plow able snowstorm that will begin overnight Wednesday night. All the forecast models are beginning to hone on a solution, making this, hopefully, one of the easier storms to forecast for this winter season.

The low pressure system that will bring the snow is currently moving through the Ohio Valley and will begin to have a significant impact on the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Heavy amounts of snow are expected along the Appalachian Mountains from VA north into NY and then eventually into Southern New England.

Temperatures at the surface is going to relatively warm, so expect to see a wet, heavy snow from this storm. Though the further inland you go, the drier the snow will be. It looks like we will see somewhere between 1 and 2" of liquid precipitation from this system. Snow to liquid ratio should be somewhere between 6 to 1 and 10 to 1. The highest precipitation total appear that they will be where it is mostly rain or heavy wet snow. So if you do some quick math, highest snow totals will likely be between 10" and 14". There is some fudging in there for wiggle room.

Here is another beautiful map that I've created of where I think the snow will occur and who will end up with what:

Credit for the base image to Plymouth State Weather

There is going to be pretty sharp gradient to the snow in Eastern MA and Southern NH. The rain/snow line will set up near Rt 128 in Massachusetts and waver back and forth through the day on Thursday. That being said, if the storm track shifts further to the north, the snow totals will be much lower and the higher totals will occur mainly in Southern NH.

So, if you leave in or near that dark blue color, make sure your snow blower is ready and you have done your stretches, you could be moving some cement like snow on Thursday.

Thanks for reading, more tomorrow.

-Jon K.

Storm Threat

2013-03-04T19:56:00.000-05:00

Well, we could go more than a week or so without the threat of what could be a significant storm here in New England. As with EVERY other storm so far this winter, we are dealing with a lot of model disparity. The two medium range forecast models have been showing different, but consistent outputs for days, the shorter range models are just starting to gather information as the storm develops in the Northern Plains, so they can't be taken too seriously just yet.

Regardless of if New England sees this storm, this one is going to cause some problems from the Northern Plains, through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. There are already too many Winter Storm Warnings to count across the Northern Plains. Heavy snow and wind will cause numerous travel headaches through the middle to end of the this week from Dakotas to the Eastern Seaboard.

The forecast models are differing in one area, the track of the storm. The intensity is about on par for each, but one model brings the storm up the East Coast after it exits the land near the Delmarva Peninsula while the other pushes it a bit further out to sea. I expect that we will likely end up meeting somewhere in the middle.

So what does this mean for New England. Well, rain and snow. Most places inside of I-95 will predominately rain. From I-95 north and west in Southern NH and Central MA, snow to a rain/snow mix, possibly to all rain. North of Manchester, NH, expect to see all snow, but not much in the way of accumulations. This is just a cursory look at this event right now. We "hope" to have better information tomorrow as the models begin to hone in on a solution. All of this fun would begin during the overnight hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Currently I don't expect a major impact on New England from this event as places that will heavy a good amount of precipitation will mainly see it fall in the form of rain. Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island will be the target for this.

The one that does have me concerned is how long the models try to keep this storm nearby. It looks like it has the tendency to spin just off the coast of Cape Cod for a period of time. If we end up with a more northerly/colder solution, this could result in a heavy amounts of snow across the interior of New England. For now, let's hope that doesn't happen.

I'm ready for Spring.

Thanks for reading, more tomorrow!

-Jon K.

Feb 27 Storm

2013-02-26T20:09:00.001-05:00

Well, it seems we can't for more than a few days without the threat of significant snow here in New England. We're back at it again tomorrow as another strong low pressure system will push through the region.

The good news for some is that it will be warm enough for all rain or mostly all rain. The bad news is that where it will be cold, there is going to be quite a bit of snow. I've outlined my thinking in the graphic below.

Again, credit goes to Plymouth State for the underlying map. Please excuse my poor drawing skills.

Anyway, the headline of this storm should be "Elevation Snow". Places that are generally above 1500 ft or so are going to have quite a bit of snow from this one. Ski resorts throughout New England, Rejoice!

This will be quick hitting storm, arriving during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning and continuing into the early evening before departing Wednesday night. It will impact 2 commutes however. Most places outside of I-495 in MA will start with snow Wednesday morning. As the morning progresses, temperatures at the surface will begin to warm and the snow will begin to mix with and then change over to rain. The further north and west you are away from Boston, and the higher you are in elevation, the snow will begin to pile up quickly after 10 AM. I expect that Central and Northern NH and Western Maine will see the most snowfall, similar to the storm over the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots have a bit more than 12", but those locations should be isolated and mainly on higher terrain.

This is going to be a wet heavy snow again. Take care when you do your digging out!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Storm progress

2013-02-24T10:43:00.002-05:00

So that lack of confidence in my forecast is paying off. Warmer temperatures are hanging in a lot longer than I expected along the coast of Massachusetts. This is going to result in much lower snow totals inside of I-95/MA-128. Eventually colder air will take hold and the majority of the rain will transition to snow, but the snow will not live up to my forecast totals. It looks like along the I-495 corridor into Central and Southern New Hampshire will see the highest snow totals.

Even those numbers will not be impressive. I don't expect to see many reports of over 6" when this storm is over. Here in Hudson, we have about 2" of heavy, wet snow.

The location that is going to have the most snow from this system is going to be in Maine. It's been cold enough there from the beginning. The snow will continue there for a good portion of the day. I expect to see a few spots that top off around 10". I didn't focus on this area too much because I don't have too many readers from this area.

Overnight last night and early this morning, areas around Concord had a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow. This put anywhere from 1-6" of snow down, most places received about 3-4".

Expect the rain/snow to continue through at least the early afternoon before gradually tapering off in Eastern MA and Southern NH. Central NH and Maine may continue to receive snow into the first half of the night before the storm begins to weaken and pull away.

I'll share some links tomorrow that show the final snow totals so I can show you how badly I forecasted this event! :-) I'm not afraid to admit I blew it.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Update for 2/23-2/24 Storm

2013-02-23T13:55:00.003-05:00

Feeling a little more confident in my forecast today, though I can say that confidence still isn't very high. I'm seeing some features develop that is giving me a better idea as to what will happen but there is still a lot of uncertainty.

I've made a rather "crude" map using Google Docs. My first time using it so excuse the horrible-ness of it.

Base Map is courtesy of Plymouth State Weather.

It looks to me like the majority of the heavier snow is going to be confined to Eastern MA and Southeastern NH. I think there will be a jackpot to the north of Boston along the North Shore. Here there could be up to 8" of snow. South of Boston would probably also be a jackpot, but an extended period of mixing and then temperatures close to or above freezing will keep amounts down slightly. Outside of the here, this storm is not going to be a big deal. It will be not much snow over a long period of time, 12-18 hours. It's looking like the worst of the storm will be after 7 AM Sunday to about 2 PM Sunday. After that, things will start to wind down as the storm pulls further away.

If I see things changing, I'll update later today or early tomorrow.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Tricky forecast

2013-02-22T19:53:00.000-05:00

I'm fairly sure I've used this title before, but this storm warrants the use of it again. As I'm sitting here writing this, I have very little confidence in what will happen and therefore have no idea what to say. I'm not saying I'm winging it, but it's pretty close to that. Basically I'm going with my gut.

Let's start with model disparity. It's been rampant with this storm and for the last few storms in general. The difference from run to run is making it very difficult to come up with a solid forecast and hard for meteorologists to hold onto their sanity. Every Met in New England who has been forecasting the last 4 weeks is earning all of their salary. As it stands this evening, the models are forecasting anywhere from nearly no snow to 8-10". The location of where this snow is expected to fall has been jumping around as well.

Nearly all the models do agree on one thing. The storm passing south of New England, moving relatively quickly. This path keeps most of the precipitation off shore. The problem lies with a feature meteorologists call a Nor'lun trough. I believe I have talked about this in previous blogs. It is VERY difficult to forecast. We've already had one of these this winter that was miss-forecasted by about 100 miles. The result was a lot of busted forecasts. Where there was supposed to be 4-8" of snow...there was NONE. We are essentially dealing with the same situation now. Will this Nor'lun trough even develop? If it does, will be stretch far enough westward to impact New England. How much moisture will be available?

All important questions that I don't have an answer to right now. Anyone who says they are confident about their forecast is lying. That is a fact. I'm basically going to give you the most likely scenario and then update the forecast again tomorrow based on trends.

Here it goes:

As the storm passes to our south, there will be some light snow south of I-90 in RI, CT and MA. This should generally be less than 2". This snow will start falling midday on Saturday. North of I-90, snow showers and flurries will likely develop mid afternoon and continue off and on through Saturday night. A dusting to 1" possible. Early Sunday morning is when the action could happen. The nor'lun trough is expected to develop after midnight on Sunday morning and potentially persist through midday. The range of affected areas will likely fall between the Outer Cape to Plymouth, MA northward to Portland ME. Or it could not reach that far back and stay completely off shore. I believe this one will actually make its was onto land, but it will be limited in its reach. I think areas around Cape Ann north to Portsmouth, NH are likely to take the brunt of this storm. It may reach as far inland as Manchester, NH, but I think that is a stretch at this point.

So look for a band of snow, oriented southeast to northwest from Cape Ann to Portsmouth, affecting Northeastern MA and Southeastern NH. Here is where snow totals could top off around 8". My official range is 4-8 for this area as a storm total. Boston will be in the 1-3". Worcester and surrounding areas, 2-4". South central and Southwestern NH along with Concord northward to Plymouth, NH 2-4". Southwestern Maine, 3-6".

There ya have it. The hype that this storm got early in the week is essentially gone. A lot of meteorologists are starting to get giddy about what the forecast models are showing for next weekend, but I'm not going to start talking about that just yet.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Another weekend storm?

2013-02-20T19:38:00.001-05:00

That's right folks, our winter isn't over yet. As I expected, the frequency of storms has increased. Each storm is becoming "warmer" than the last. I'll explain this shortly.

I don't want to get into a vast amount of detail, but confidence is increasing for a strong storm to impact New England Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Computer forecast models began to pick up on this late on Monday and have been consistently showing the storm moving just offshore of Cape Cod. The good news for some folks is that there will be some rain with this and some places will see nearly ALL rain. Others won't be lucky and will be stuck with heavy wet snow, and potentially a lot of it. Right now it looks like 12" is a good maximum to put on this and just about every weather outlet is thinking along those lines.

So I did mention that the storms would be getting "warmer" as we head toward the end of winter. Most of this is the natural progression of the season. The sun angle is higher and we are gradually getting more daylight. On top of this, the upper level troughs are developing further to the West and this is forcing the storm path just a bit closer to the coast, allowing warmer air to move a bit further inland. This looks like it will happen this weekend as there will be some places that see mainly rain, as I stated earlier.

If you have travel plans this weekend, pay attention to this storm, it's almost guaranteed to cause travel headaches.

More to come....

-Jon K.

Late Winter/Early Sping Outlook

2013-02-12T20:55:00.000-05:00

Aside from the chance of a strong storm affecting New England this weekend, not too much to talk about in the short term. Forecast models still vary on the outlook for the weekend, so stay tuned.

I wanted to address what I see happening over the next 2 months in terms of the weather pattern.

With the passing of a storm as powerful as we saw this past weekend, you tend to see a pattern change following it. It may not be immediate, but it will set that stage for things to change. Leading up to this storm, we've had a relatively cold winter so far. Not steadily, but much colder than the last couple of winters. Compared to last winter in New England, every other winter is cold!

You probably noticed the warmer temperatures at the beginning of this week. Early indication of a pattern change. Granted some of the added warmth comes from the sun getting higher in the sky, but it's not the only reason. All this week temperatures will be somewhat mild. It won't be until this weekend that they drop back closer to the freezing mark for daytime highs.

Over the past month, we've been dealing with an upper level trough across the Eastern United States. Its been rather persistent, hence the longer stretches of cold weather. After the passing of the blizzard, I'm starting to see a shift in the location of the trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The medium range forecast models are indicating this, showing the trough shifting to the west toward the Central and Western United States. What this means for New England is generally 2 things. Warmer temperatures and an increased risk of storms.

I won't go into too much detail about why this result in more storms. It has to do with the Rocky Mountains, wind direction on the east side of the mountains, and in flow of warm, moist air into the Southern Plains. Essentially this is a Spring like pattern. It just appears to be happening a bit earlier this year. Maybe Punxsutawney Phil was right, early Spring this year!

The bad news is that with the snow pack, a cool ocean to our East and storms passing to our west, we run the risk of more mixed precipitation events. This means an increased risk of freezing rain and sleet. Whether this actually happens, time will tell, just laying out what I envision happening. We'll also likely see a few severe weather outbreaks across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Remember, if this actually happens, you heard it here first! :-)

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Post Mortem

2013-02-11T14:13:00.000-05:00

Just a quick little blog today. We had a lot of snow, we're dealing with it. Here is a look at a contour map of snow totals. At the bottom was my forecast. Aside from not focusing enough on Connecticut, my forecast map was pretty close.

So yeah, tooting my own horn a little bit. I'll say that was one of the most impressive winter storms I've ever seen. Not just because of the snow amounts, but the wind and how long the wind lasted.

I'll be back later this week, there is the possibility of another storm this coming weekend.

-Jon

(first image is courtesy of NWS Raleigh)

February Nor'easter Update

2013-02-08T14:19:00.002-05:00

Forecast from yesterday is generally in tact. Most places are currently seeing snow or have seen some snow already today. The model runs from this morning are indicating a slight southward shift of the heavy snow bands, though this is captured in the image that I posted yesterday. I was a little suspicious of this so I made the 18-24" area a bit larger to account for any slight shift.

Places north of Manchester, NH may see a bit less than I expected yesterday, but it likely will only be off by a couple of inches. For example, 15" instead of 18". When it's that much snow, it really doesn't matter that much, does it? :-)

Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are posted all over the region. Driving bans will be going into effect later this evening. I can't stress enough that people should obey these bans. In general, if you aren't ready, it's too late to prepare any further. The good news is that the snow will be over or winding down by 2-3 PM tomorrow and I would imagine most stores will be open in the afternoon. Road crews and utility companies knew this was coming days in advance, they are prepared and will clear up everything as quickly as they can.

Lastly, I'd love to hear reports or see pictures of snow in your area. You can either post comments on this blog or post them on my facebook fan page, which you probably have to "Like" first. I'd love to hear from you!

https://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman

Thanks for checking in!

-Jon K.

Projected snow totals

2013-02-07T13:32:00.001-05:00

Alright, here it is. I was having fun with polygons at work today and put together what I think New England, focusing on Southern and Central areas, will see from this storm. I believe The Weather Channel is dubbing this storm "Nemo".

Anyway, look for the snow to begin lightly tomorrow morning in most places. Little accumulation is expected, generally less than 2" during the daylight hours tomorrow. Once the sun goes down, the intensity will pick up dramatically, producing periods of 2-3" of snow per hour. Heavy wet snow is expected closer to the coast, generally inside of 128/I-95, with fluffier snow outside of that. Snow will continue overnight before tapering off West to East during the day on Saturday. We should be clear of the snow by 5 PM Saturday afternoon. Then let the clean up begin.

Her is the map:

This image was created using WSI software.

If you have to be out and about tomorrow, you will probably want to be home by 4 or 5 PM. After that, it's going to be rather unsafe on the roads.

I'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Update on Friday's storm potential

2013-02-06T20:31:00.000-05:00

The title is a bit mis-leading. Potential is not the right word. I have all the confidence that it is going to snow here in New England beginning during the middle of the day on Friday, lasting into at least the morning hours on Saturday.

You've probably heard a lot of different stories or forecasts over the last 24 hours. You might have seen some people post pictures of one forecast model that was forecasting as much as 84 inches of snow in Northern MA, that's 7 feet of snow for those who don't care to do the math. Is this likely or even possible in a 24 hour period, no, not really. That was the result of an errant math equation gone haywire. Not uncommon from computer guidance models.

Everyone needs to remember that meteorology is NOT an exact science and likely will never be. It relies too heavily on physics, which has some aspects that are just estimations.

Anyway, enough of the science lesson. Let's get to it!

Here is what I see happening:

Clouds will start to thicken up overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. During this time, the storm will have begun its transition to a coastal low. At the upper level of the atmosphere, conditions will be setting up for this low pressure to develop very rapidly. You may hear the term "bombogenesis" thrown around by TV Meteorologists. This essentially means quickly dropping surface pressure over a short period of time. A sign of a strong storm.

As the storm gets closer, the atmosphere will start to moisten across all levels. How quickly this happens will impact how early the snow starts. One proprietary model made by the company I work for, WSI, has this happening quite early. Not sure I believe this just yet, as it has light, ocean effect snow start around 8 AM across Northeastern Massachusetts. This will be very similar to the snow that Southern New England had on Super Bowl Sunday. It basically snowed for what seemed like forever, but never amounted to much. This will merely be a nuisance for several hours before the real action gets going.

By late afternoon, for the sake of giving a time, say 4 PM, much of Massachusetts will be underneath the northern fringe of the snow bands from this storm. This will quickly spread northward over the next few hours so that by 8 PM it will be snowing in much of New England, with a few inches already on the ground in MA. The storm really starts to ramp up from here. If you watch the late evening news and see reports from the NYC area that nearly a foot of snow is already on the ground, you know for sure it's coming.

After midnight, snowfall rates across Central MA, Northeastern MA into Southern New Hampshire could be on the order of 3-4 inches PER HOUR. The biggest question will be, where does the band of very heavy snow set up and how long does it stay there? Right now, nearly all the forecast models are expecting the low pressure center to "pause" off the coast of Cape Cod for 6-12 hours. During this time, it will just be spinning Easterly winds into New England off the ocean, enhancing the snow band by feeding more moisture into. A great scenario for a lot of snow. Personally, I expect this band will set up across Southeastern to South central NH, from Rochester, westward to Manchester-Nashua, then southwestward through Northeastern and North central MA down to Northeastern CT. Basically just outside of I-495. I believe this is where the highest snow totals will occur.

Alright, I don't want to get into too much more detail, especially since a slight shift in track or that the storm doesn't pause for several hours will greatly impact storm totals. Since you are probably thinking, OK, so what are we going to see, here it goes. Look for a general 15-30 inches of snow with isolated spots possibly getting up to 36". I'm trying to span nearly all of Southern and Central New England when I give this range.

The snow should start to taper off on Saturday afternoon and then the clean up can begin. The good news is that it will likely be in the mid to upper 40s by Monday. :-)

I'll have more tomorrow. Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Major Winter Storm on the Way?

2013-02-05T20:09:00.000-05:00

Well folks, it's been a while since I've posted. Life and lack of significant weather in the Northeastern United States has kept my fingers quiet. I apologize for my absence. But anyway, let's get to why you are really here!

So as you may have heard by now, there is the threat for a powerful storm here in New England on Friday. I know you all just can't wait to hear my opinion either! I caught wind of this yesterday when I peeked at a couple of long range models. Only one of several forecasted the storm to develop, the others kept the system disorganized with very little moisture. Based on how this winter has played out, I was inclined to believe the group of models that was showing the weaker storm.

HOWEVER!

A couple of forecast models have come in line and are now leaning more toward a strong storm. So here's essentially what would happen if this all comes together. There are two areas of low pressure in the upper atmosphere, us Meteorologists refer to them as troughs. One is in the polar flow and the other is in the subtropical flow. These two troughs will merge together, and with the help of some jet stream support, will rapidly develop a strong low pressure system at the surface. Remember this is the ideal situation, if all of this "stuff" doesn't happen, the storm will not be as powerful.

So you're probably asking, how much are we going to get?

Answer is, it's way too early to tell. All we know is that there is a real threat of this happening and the possibility of eclipsing our snow totals for last two winter(not combined), exists. To put that in perspective, most locations in Southern New England have had roughly 20" of snow each of the last 2 winters.

In conclusion, this storm definitely bears watching. We should know more over the next 36 hours.

Stay tuned!

-Jon K

Sunday AM Sandy update

2012-10-28T09:41:00.003-04:00

I apologize for my lack of blog posts yesterday. I had numerous chores to take care of around the house that was more important.

In the grand scheme of things, my outlook has not changed. My forecast of a Central NJ landfall continues. All the forecast models are trending toward this solution. HOWEVER, this is not the only area that will be impacted. The "zone" of impact is very, very large. Tropical storm force winds will extend some 500 miles away from the center of the storm, particularly on the north and west side of the storm. That means that from Northern NH and VT westward to Buffalo and Pittsburgh will experience winds and wind gusts over 35 mph. This is going to lead to power outages and damage. I believe the worst of the damage is going to be in Northern NJ, NYC area and Southern CT and RI. Further inland the reports of damage will be a bit more widespread. Here is a good depiction of the large area of impact Sandy will have, taken from The Weather Channel:

As you can see that nearly the entire Northeastern United States along with a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic will feel the effects of the very large weather system.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center is still calling Sandy a hurricane, however, the tropical characteristics are all but gone. It appears the reason they are continuing to give a name to Sandy and classify it as a "tropical" system to highlight the importance of the event. They likely don't want to the public to disregard the impacts.

High winds are already lashing the North Carolina coast. Conditions will continue to deteriorate further to the north on the Delmarva Peninsula and into NJ throughout the day today and tonight. By tomorrow morning, there will be tropical storm force winds covering the NYC Metro area into Southern New England. Through the day on Monday, the area of tropical storm force winds will spread north and westward encompassing nearly all of New England and much of NY and PA.

I stress that you need to pay close attention to local media outlets and obey any orders given by local authorities. This could be a once in a lifetime storm and it is nothing to take lightly. This is especially the case form Cape Cod, down the Eastern Seaboard to Cape Hatteras. Please be safe.

I hope to have another update this afternoon.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Last Friday update

2012-10-26T22:43:00.001-04:00

Not too much to report on, at least in the form of changes. Models run are just starting to trickle and I'm too tired to stay up to wait for them to finish.

The National Hurricane Center has done something that I find rather curious. They have shifted their forecast a bit further to the south, despite all the forecast models showing a more northern solution in the latest model runs. Seems strange to me, but they are professionals and must see something that suggests this. The offical track from the Hurricane Center takes the center of the system up the Delaware River.

I'm still thinking that this system makes landfall in Central NJ, probably just north of Atlantic City. At this point, it will no longer be considered a hurricane. It will have lost all of it's tropical characteristics. HOWEVER; wind speeds will exceed hurricane force strength, especially wind gusts. This will particularly be the case on the northern side of the system.

So Northern NJ, NYC, Long Island, Cape Cod and the South Coast of New England will have some very strong winds from this system, despite the center staying south of these areas. Widespread damage and power outages are expected in this region, with power outages expected from Central NH westward to Buffalo, NY and southward into West Virginia.

Also, expect to see some heavy snow on the back side of the system, primarily in Eastern Ohio and especially in the hills of West Virginia. Up to a foot of snow isn't out of the question at higher elevations in WV.

That's going to do it for today. If anyone has any questions, let me know. More updates coming tomorrow between my own preparations for this storm.

-Jon

Update #3

2012-10-26T14:49:00.001-04:00

All the Friday morning model runs have shifted the track of Sandy further to the north. This is an interesting development, but not something that should be bought, hook, line and sinker. It's just one mathematical solution to a very complex storm.

Currently, Sandy is going through a transformation from a tropical system to a subtropical or extra tropical storm. Recent satellite images show almost no convection on the southern side of the storm. Full-fledged tropical systems almost always have a closed core of convection. This transition is happening as it interacts with a strong upper level low pressure system. As this happens, Sandy will weaken initially, which is already happening. However, once the transition to fully complete, Sandy will begin to strengthen again.

There are a lot of similarities with this situation and what happened during the "Perfect Storm" in 1991. They may even happen on the same exact day.

I stress that much can and probably will change over the next couple of days. However, if you have interests in the Northeast, from Delaware to Portland, ME, you need to start acting now. I believe that a landfall somewhere between Southern NJ and Montauk, NY is the most likely scenario.

The wind field for Sandy will be very large. Tropical Storm force winds will extend several hundred miles out away from the center of the storm and there will likely be hurricane force wind gusts on the east and northern side of the system. To the north of Sandy when she makes landfall will be an area of high pressure. The collision of Sandy into this high will help to increase wind speeds and this will happen on the north side of the storm's center.

That's enough gloom and doom for now. More to come....

-Jon

Model snapshot for Sunday night

2012-10-26T10:38:00.001-04:00

Below are 2 snapshots of where Sandy is forecast to be by the 2 models meteorologists are relying on heavily at this point. Images come from weather.unisys.com. Full credit goes to them.

This is the European model which was the first to hint that Sandy would be a problem for the Eastern US. You'll notice that the center(all the closed circles east of the Carolinas) is closer to the coast than the image below.

The difference may only be about 100 miles or so, but that will make all the difference when it comes to where Sandy, or what it will be at that point, makes landfall.

I'll have another update early this afternoon with model information from this mornings run.

-Jon

Here comes Sandy

2012-10-26T08:39:00.004-04:00

I'll be updating this as much as possible today and through the weekend. Keep checking back here often. To start off the morning, here it the forecast track that the National Hurricane Center has for Sandy. In general, I'm in agreement with this path, though my gut tells me that landfall will be a bit farther north than is depicted in the picture below.

More to come...

-Jon

Re-breaking the ice

2012-09-26T19:24:00.002-04:00

I'm going to start back up gently, though with a rather important weather topic.

Satellites, in particular, a failing satellite that services over half the population of the United States.

The problem started in early September. A weather satellite called GOES 13(GOES = Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOES) began having problems. A wavy pattern developed in some the images it was sending to earth. The problem continued to become more and more noticeable at time went on.

This particular satellite covers much of the Atlantic Ocean and the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States. This of course is responsible for covering tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico as well as the majority of the United States populace. Basically, it's pretty important to a lot of people and meteorologists.

Once the problems become very noticeable, engineers began to investigate, remotely of course. They realized that nothing could be done while the satellite was active, so they decided to take it offline for a period of time. Well, this was done Saturday, 9/22. What they found was not good and it has not been back online since. They have scrambled around and have begun sending lower resolution imagery from other satellites. They fear that GOES 13 problems could be unrepairable and may need to be replaced.

So what does this mean? One of the big concerns is the impact it will have on forecast data. Currently, several of the guidance models that help meteorologists forecast the weather use satellite data to initialize their model runs. Right now, that satellite data is grainy and a much lower resolution. In general, until something is fixed, forecast quality could be degraded. Something to keep in mind when watching or hearing the weather forecast.

If you are interested, go here for a bit more information from someone who is closer to the situation than I am: http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=10749&goback=%2Egde_70721_member_168311257

Next blog will be about the long range forecast for the United States for the next 3 to 4 months.

Thanks for reading and welcome back!

-Jon K.

No major changes to my forecast

2012-02-29T09:32:00.000-05:00

No need to change my forecast totals much. Not to brag or anything, but just about every other weather outlet has had to up their totals since yesterday. I know I wasn't overly confident with the models, but relying on the models too much can burn you as a meteorologist. What I will do this morning is try to narrow down exactly what areas will see how much snow with a bit more precision. I broad brushed areas yesterday, I'll refine it this morning. See image below of projected storm total through Thursday night:

The main contributor to snow totals will be overall duration of the event. Locations in Southern NH and Northern MA will have snowfalling for over 24 hours. It'll take a little while for the snow to start accumulating due to the ground not being completely frozen. Once it does start sticking, it'll will start to pile up quickly, especially after midnight tonight.

More later, if necessary.

-Jon K.

Here it comes?

2012-02-28T12:52:00.000-05:00

Still plenty of uncertainty with the storm headed our way for tomorrow and Thursday. Computer guidance models are still showing a wide variety of solutions and the reputation this winter has lends itself to significant doubt.

Today: Plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy, lows in the low to mid 20s south, teens north.

Tomorrow: Clouds increase, rain/snow mix and snow develops around midday and continues through the afternoon. Most areas across New England will start out as snow. Southwestern areas will begin changing over to a mix or rain later in the afternoon. That rain/snow line will gradually shift north and east making it as far north as Route 2 overnight on Wednesday night. I've included a movie below. Accumulations will be limited due to a warmer environment during the day, but 3-5 inches is highly likely over the higher terrain in MA, CT and Northern RI. 1-3" is likely north of Rt. 2 north to around Concord. Further north won't get into the snow until Wednesday night. Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.

Tomorrow night: Rain/snow continues, heavy at times in Southern and Central NH. Rain/snow line hovering around the Rt. 2 area. Accumulations of 3-5" in Southern NH, 4-6" in Central NH, 1-2 in Northern NH. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s south, 20s north.

Thursday: Rain and snow continues, rain south, snow north. Dividing line will continue to hover around Rt. 2 and then will shift south and east throughout the day, eventually pushing through Boston by mid-afternoon. Additional accumulations expected, 3-6" in Northern and Central NH(including the Keene/Jaffery areas), 4-7" for Southern New Hampshire into Central MA, and 2-4" across Eastern MA. Highs in the low 30s south, near 30 north.

Discussion:

This storm has the potential to be a mess or a miss. I'm very hesitant to jump on board with the numbers I've posted above and I think I might regret it. The way I'm looking at it right now is that it's still winter and eventually something has to give. The storm that is coming for tomorrow and Thursday is eerily similar to the previous 2 storms we've seen except for 2 things: Strength and cold air to the north. This storm will be much, much stronger than the previous two and there is going to be a large pool of cold/dry air that will get trapped across much of New England which will enhance snow accumulation and keep things colder thanks to evaporational cooling.

All that being said, the track of this system still worries me. One of the latest model runs shifts the track a little further south. However, this is the only model currently doing that, so it's an outlier. I attempted to factor some of that into the accumulation numbers above. I still leaning toward a worst case scenario, despite my worries.

Here is the movie I promised:

Here is a map of projected snow totals, closely matches my numbers above:

All images come from WSI software using the WSI created RPM model.

The good news is that temperatures will shoot back up above normal late in the weekend and for early next week. Any snow we get will likely be gone rather quickly.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Unsettled later this week

2012-02-27T12:20:00.000-05:00

The forecast models have been hinting at a big storm arriving in New England later this week. Just what type of storm we get remains a bit of a mystery.

Rest of today: Increasing clouds, highs in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 40s north.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, chance of a few snow showers and flurries north, spot accumulations of less than 2 inches, lows in the low 30s south, 20s north.

Tomorrow: Becoming mostly sunny, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the teens north, 20s south.

Wednesday: Cloudy, rain/snow mix developing throughout the day. Biggest question is where the storm track ends up, this will greatly affect precipitation type for many areas. Confident it will be cold enough for snow north of Concord, NH. A mix of some kind between Concord and I-495 and likely all rain inside I-495 and south of I-90. Highs in the mid and upper 30s south, around 30 north.

Discussion:

A weak, fast moving low pressure system is responsible for the clouds we are seeing outside currently. It will also bring some snow showers to the region tonight, especially across northern areas. Not expecting much of any widespread accumulation.

We should turn our attention to the storm that is set to arrive the middle of the week and continue into Thursday. This looks like a two stage event. The first part arriving during the day on Wednesday and then another blast coming on Thursday. Much remains to be determined where the centers of each disturbance will pass. Currently I expect the first one to pass to the south, mainly affecting extreme Southern New England with a mix of rain and snow. This disturbance will have the most amount of moisture associated with it. The second phase will arrive on Thursday. This piece of energy will be situated in a colder environment and should be able to produce some accumulating snow. The main questions with this second wave are; how much moisture will be available and will the air be cold enough to support significant accumulations?

My current thinking for the answers to both of those questions are no, especially for Southern New England. Central New England will likely have limited accumulations at best. Northern areas will likely benefit the most from the second phase to this storm as up slope flow and colder air will produce a good amount of snow in the mountains.

I'll have more tomorrow.

-Jon K.