Just my thoughts on investing

Genting’s Profit Fell 34%. Something More Important Was Rising.

2026-08-19T14:03:29.050+08:00

It is one of the oldest ironies in equity markets: a company reports a double-digit decline in earnings, and yet, its stock price starts climbing. Genting Singapore’s latest 1H2026 financial results look, at first glance, like a bit of a train wreck. Headline net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted 34% year-on-year to $156.1 million.

Yet, the market responded by bidding the stock up after the results announced. Equity markets are forward-looking discounting machines. While headline accounting figures tell us where a company has been, sequential operational metrics tell us where it is going. When you peel back the layers of Genting's interim statement, the evidence suggests that the business structurally bottomed in the first quarter of the year, and a quiet operational turnaround has already begun.

The Sequential Story

The most important chart in this earnings season isn't the backward-looking six-month comparison. It’s the quarter-on-quarter momentum. While Adjusted EBITDA for the half-year fell, 2Q2026 Adjusted EBITDA surged to $210.8 million SGD—representing an 18% sequential expansion compared to 1Q2026. Even more promising, that second-quarter figure is up 12% year-on-year.

Source: 2026 Half Yearly Results

What this tells us is that core gaming and resort operations are stabilizing and starting to recover, even as massive, noisy construction disruptions continue across Resorts World Sentosa (RWS).

Furthermore, the massive bottom-line net profit decline may not be driven by a collapse in casino demand. It could be the product of two highly predictable, non-operational drags:

The Depreciation Spike: Massive capital reinvestment into RWS 2.0 has pushed depreciation and amortisation up 25.4% to $200.6 million SGD. This is a non-cash accounting charge, not an operational cash drain.
Erosion of Cash Cushions: Genting has been drawing down its cash reserves to fund RWS 2.0 capital commitments. Combined with falling global interest rates, Genting's non-operating interest income plummeted 55% YoY to $22.8 million.

Source: 2026 Half Yearly Results

In short, core operations are stabilizing, but accounting metrics are absorbing the cost of building for tomorrow.

Premium Bets are Paying Off

The second reason the market is reacting positively is that the heavy capital spent on RWS 2.0 is finally showing signs of life. For the first half of 2026, non-gaming revenue rose 6% YoY to $398.8 million SGD, successfully offsetting a 4% decline in gaming revenue.

Source: 2026 Half Yearly Results

Why does this matter? Premium lifestyle additions like Illumination’s Minion Land (opened Feb 2025, the expanded Singapore Oceanarium (opened July 2025, and the ultra-luxury suites at The Laurus (opened Oct 2025 are finally working. They are attracting higher-spending premium tourists, driving up non-gaming yields. Because non-gaming revenue is inherently more stable than volatile VIP gaming rolls, the market is beginning to value Genting as a diversified premier lifestyle destination rather than a pure casino operator.

The Margin of Safety

Finally, we have to look at the price. Before this earnings release, the stock was trading down near $0.66. At that price, the stock was trading at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV) of 67.2 cents.

When a wide-moat duopoly with billions in net cash trades below its book value, the downside is almost entirely protected. The next 2 results will then proved that its operational performance had indeed bottomed out. Question is, do investors have the patience to wait out.

Why I just bought NVIDIA during this "dangerous" correction

2026-08-04T09:12:56.092+08:00

While retail traders are panicking and calling this a AI bubble has burst, I just finished scaling into a core position in NVDA. This is a speculative opportunity trade. It might seem counterintuitive to buy when the price has dropped from the $220+ highs of June, but my simple logic is driven by a very specific signals that just fired.

The Setup: A Rare Confluence

We are currently in a CORRECTION regime, which is exactly where "asymmetric wealth transfer" happens. Over the last few weeks, as shown in the chart below, my model lit up with a classic cluster: a BUY_T2 on June 12, a rare CYCLE_T3 on July 6, and another BUY_T2 on July 24.

Historically, this specific sequence—especially the CYCLE_T3 in a correction—is an "A+ Tier" event. To understand why I pulled the trigger, you have to look at the "hard numbers" for these specific signals in a correction:

Table 1: The Statistical "Sting" vs. The Reward (Data derived from full-sample NVDA quantitative backtest)

Metric	BUY_T2 (Correction)	CYCLE_T3 (Correction)
Median 120d Return	55.36%	96.37%
Median Drawdown (MAE)	-7.40%	0.00%
Worst Historical Drawdown	-39.66% (Oct 2018)	-2.83% (July 2026)
Median Time to Recovery	1 Day	1 Day
Longest Wait to Recovery	22 Days	1 Day
Historical Recovery Rate	100%	100%

Table1

The Logic: Fading the Panic

Retail investors are currently trapped by loss aversion and recency bias. They see the recent drawdown and want to liquidate. However, the backtest data tells a different story. Historically, these setups deliver a 100% recovery rate.

For the CYCLE_T3 signal specifically, accumulation usually forms a floor immediately, which is why the median drawdown is a perfect 0.00% from the backtest data. Even the current "worst case" for this specific signal is a measly -2.8% decline.

This post is for me to record the trade analysis, and to revisit in near future if the model works. I am not taking a large position as the backtest signals only provide a roadmap of probability, not a certainty of future outcomes.

Disclaimers apply and do note that backtest results represent a historical approximation and may contain data discrepancies.

Why I bought EWY ETF After more than 30% Crash

2026-08-02T19:47:47.587+08:00

Markets have a funny way of making you feel like a genius one week and a complete novice the next. While AI and semiconductor-related stocks have been crashing hard over the last few months, the ripple effects have hit the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) especially hard, with the index plummeting over 30% from its recent peak. Just last week, we witnessed a stomach-churning more than 10% crash in a mere 10 trading days

For the retail investors who chased the parabolic top near $190–$210, this is the point of maximum anxiety. However, the chart below shows that this "crash" has actually triggered a high-conviction BUY_T2 signal within a Correction regime.

Here is why I’m stepping in to for a speculative trade while others are selling.

The Data: Why BUY_T2 Matters

When the market enters a "Correction" regime, the BUY_T2 signal acts as a mean-reversion re-entry trigger. Essentially, the market has overextended to the downside as shown in the chart below..

I’ve pulled the technical statistics from the backtest below to show you why the risk/reward here is so asymmetric:

Historical Performance: BUY_T2 Signal (CORRECTION Regime)

Metric	Value	What it means in plain English
Sample Size	14 Instances	This signal has appeared 14 times in similar market conditions.
Recovery Rate	100%	Every single time this signal has flashed in a correction, the price has eventually recovered.
Med R60 (60-Day Return)	0.1273	The median profit 60 days after the signal is roughly 12.7%.
Med MAE (Median Pain)	-0.24%	The "Median Maximum Adverse Excursion." This is the median amount the price dropped after the signal before heading up.
P90 MAE (Worst Pain)	0.00%	The "worst-case" drawdown for 90% of the historical cases. Interestingly, in this regime, there was effectively no further drop in 90% of instances.
Med TTR (Recovery Time)	1 Day	The median number of days it took for the price to get back to the "entry price" and start making money.
P90 TTR (Worst Recovery)	1 Day	In 90% of historical cases, the price recovered to the entry point within just one day.

The Game Plan: How I’m Trading this

The market is currently trapped in a cycle of fear because of the rapid 10-day drop. But the backtest tells a different story: a 100% historical recovery rate and a median 60-day upside of 12.7%. I’m not just throwing everything in at once, but in tranches.

S&P500 Is Still Not Cheap Enough. My Model Found 3 Stocks Are Flashing Buy Right Now

2026-04-04T11:04:00.000+08:00

In a recent post-retirement interview, Warren Buffett said this dip in US stock indices is nothing compared to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009. And honestly, he's right. Both the Dow Jones and S&P500 have barely dipped below 10% — technically, that's not even a correction, let alone a crash.

Now, regular readers of this blog know I've been working on a model to take emotions completely out of my investment decisions. And I've updated the model to use 2 anchor dates — one for the Macro, one for the Cycle.

For Macro, I use March 2009 (the GFC bottom) as the floor. For Cycle, I use March 2020 (COVID crash) as the floor. Simply put, the GFC low represents the long-term structural baseline, while the COVID low marks the last major cycle bottom. The model then runs the current stock price against these 2 floors and flags whenever price is testing either level.

So what did the signals tell me? Here's what I found.

SPY ETF

As shown in the chart below, the current signal is flashing 'Buy T2'. This means price has moved significantly away from its established trend, but we're still nowhere near the Macro or Cycle lows. Not a crisis, just a discount.

If you're doing selective DCA, this is actually a decent spot to be adding in slowly.

QQQ ETF

As shown in the chart below, current signal is flashing ' Macro T2', this means that the price is cheap relative to both the short-term and the long-term history. And that this isn't just a localised dip; it is touching the long-term 'floor' of the entire post-2008 bull market.

IGV ETF

As shown in the chart below, February 2026 threw up two signals — Dual T3 and Macro T2.

Dual T3 is the strongest signal in the system. It means price has hit the absolute limit of a crash across every timeframe the model tracks — in this case, both GFC and COVID lows. When both signals fire at the same time, it means price is sitting at a rare intersection where every major historical support line converges.

IHF ETF

As shown in the chart below, the current signal is 'Dual T2' — a Strong Accumulation signal. It means the stock is offering a significant discount, and that discount isn't just backed by one reference point — it's being validated by both historical support pillars, Macro and Cycle, at the same time. Two anchors confirming the same thing simultaneously.

One thing I want to be upfront about — this model does not catch the absolute bottom. No system can, and anyone who claims otherwise is lying to you.

From the backtests, even when you buy at these signals, there's still a 10% chance the price dips a further 8% after entry. But here's the thing — you're not going in blind. You already know what the historical worst case looks like at this entry point.

The above is not any financial advice, it is to provide me a history record when i look back in a year's time to validate this model.

Mag 7 Correction: This Mag 7 Stock Just Flashed a Buy Signal

2026-03-10T14:57:00.071+08:00

Updated(4 April); Here is the update using the enhanced model of comparing to the anchor Macro date(GFC) and cycle date(COVID). This is the model which I have recently enhanced.

As shown in the chart below, in Feb., the signal was flashing Macro T2 and Dual T2.

Macro T2 - this means that the price is cheap relative to both the short-term and the long-term history. And that this isn't just a localised dip; it is touching the long-term 'floor' of the entire post-2008 bull market.

Dual T2 - a Strong Accumulation signal. It means the stock is offering a significant discount, and that discount isn't just backed by one reference point — it's being validated by both historical support pillars, Macro and Cycle, at the same time. Two anchors confirming the same thing simultaneously.

BackTest

Regime	Signal	Recovery	P90 MAE	Med TTR	Med R120
BULL	BUY_T1	1	-2.05%	1	0.2505414211
BULL	BUY_T2	1	-1.99%	1.5	0.2833161971
BULL	DUAL_T2	1	0.00%	1	0.4845446717
BULL	MACRO_T3	1	-4.72%	3	0.4882672341
BULL	MACRO_T2	1	-6.88%	3	0.4226849607
BEAR	DUAL_T3	1	-8.53%	4	0.2373489702
BEAR	MACRO_T2	1	-9.16%	1	NA
BEAR	CYCLE_T2	1	-18.99%	1	0.003932309102
BEAR	MACRO_T1	1	-23.96%	1	NA
BEAR	DUAL_T2	0.71	-17.51%	1	0.3156479201
BEAR	BUY_T1	1	-17.27%	16	0.09898475818

Based on the backtest results, in Bear regime, for Dual T2 signal, there is a 10% chance the price dips further 17.5% after entry. And for Macro T2 signal, there is a 10% chance the price dips further 9% after entry.

<Update END>

For years, the Magnificent Seven were the "Buy-and-Forget" staples of everyone's portfolio. But recent months have seen these tech titans stumble.

What’s driving the sell-off? The ongoing Middle East crisis did not affect the stock price of this particular stock much. It’s a mix of "Agentic Panic"—fears that new AI agents from firms like Anthropic will disrupt existing software moats—and rising scepticism over whether the massive billions spent on chips will actually translate into bottom-line profits. Add in a shift in interest rate expectations, and you have a recipe for a tactical pullback.

The top five AI spenders—Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle—continue to pour billions into the "AI Arms Race." They aren't just spending; they are building the structural foundations for the next decade of compute. With so much "noise" in the headlines, it’s easy to get distracted. Today, I’m cutting through the hype to share exactly why I am buying this specific stock based on our data-backed signals.

The Sentiment Analysis Chart

Out of the 5 listed above, I have made a tactical allocation to Microsoft(MSFT), and here is why. In the chart below, T3Z3 (Tier 3, Zone 3) represents a specific "Low-Velocity" regime. While Microsoft remains a high-quality compounder, the math currently flags it as a Tactical Add rather than a core aggressive engine.

Summary from BackTesting in Bear Regime

Tier	Zone	CES	Median TTR (Mths)	P90 TTR (Mths)	Median MAE	P90 MAE
T2	Z2	25–100	2–4	5–8	−0.7% to −3.7%	−4%
T1	Z1	5–50	6–16	18–80	−3% to −7%	−20%
T3	Z3	50–100	1	1	0%	0%

As you can see in the chart below, our model flashed two T3Z3 signals throughout February. I waited a few days after the first signal before adding to my position. By the end of February, a second signal was alerted, confirming that the stock was still sitting in that high-reliability (but slow-moving) tactical zone.

CES (Capital Efficiency Score) - How efficiently does this stock use your money?

Median_TTR - How long does it usually take to recover?

P90_TTR - In a bad case, how long could my money be stuck before it gets back to breakeven?

Median_MAE - How much does it usually dip before going back up?

P90_MAE - In a bad case, how deep could the temporary loss get before it recovers?

How to Spot the Exact Moment COE Premiums Bottoming Out

2026-02-22T10:27:00.000+08:00

In the 1990s, if you still remember the "Singapore Dream", it was neatly packaged into the 5Cs: Cash, Condo, Credit Card, Country Club, and most importantly, the Car. For some, it’s a status representation, for others, it’s a non-negotiable tool for survival. Young families trying to transport toddlers in the rain, or business owners rushing between client visits. But with COE premiums often swinging more wildly than a volatile tech stock, how do you know if you're overpaying? I have written an excel model just to understand this.

Mastering the "COE Swing": The Signal Win Rates

To answer this, I’ve moved away from coffeeshop hearsay and into the realm of data. I developed a model to backtest COE price action across four distinct "market regimes." The results—specifically the Signal Win Rates—reveal a fascinating story behind these data.

Signal Regime	Backtest Win Rate	What it Means
Active Turn	62%	The "Sweet Spot." Price is stable, but bidder momentum has just shifted positive.
Distress	59%	"Blood in the streets." Premiums are at a major floor compared to the historical "fair value" line.
Major Pullback	56%	A healthy cooling period where both price and bidder competition are dropping.
Crowded Dip	44%	The Trap. Price looks lower, but the bidder backlog is surging.

The model is robust because it doesn't just look at price; it tracks BQR (Bidder-to-Quota Ratio) Velocity. A 62% win rate on "Active Turns" proves that catching the uptrend early is statistically superior to "bottom fishing" during a Crowded Dip, where you’re often outbid. The BackTest Win Rate indicates the probability that the premium prices in the next two bidding rounds will be lower than the current one.

The Results: Excel Model

When we run the Excel algorithm, the output provides a granular look at the market's hidden gears. By calculating the Bidder Backlog, we can see the "latent demand" waiting to explode.

When the model triggers an Active Turn or Distress signal, it indicates a high probability—roughly 59% to 62% based on our backtesting—that the premium prices in the next two bidding rounds will be lower than the current one.

Below are some of the screenshots from the backtesting for CAT A.

Current Indicator: What Is It Saying?

Based on the latest data from the February 2026 tender, here is how the model interprets the current market regime:

ACTION: PATIENCE (STEADY)
Last Price: $106,501
Market Regime: Neutral
Value Score: +8% (Premium is currently 8% above the historical "fair value" line)
BQR Velocity: -0.03 (Minimal downward shift in bidder competition)
Bidder Backlog: 686 (The "queue" of unsuccessful bidders)

Currently, the indicator is flashing Patience. While we’ve seen a slight cooling in bidder velocity (-0.03), the Value Score of 8% tells us we are still trading slightly above the historical "fair value" line. Because we haven't hit the Active Turn or Distress thresholds yet, the math suggests there is no immediate rush to bid. However, buying car is more of an emotional thing than the brain and maths, most will still rush to bid :).

The "Anthropic AI" Sell-Off: What I’m Buying

2026-02-13T17:16:00.001+08:00

Lately, everyone is panicking because new AI from Anthropic might replace traditional software companies. This fear caused tech stocks to crash. But while others are panic selling, I started to nibble. I think the market is overreacting, putting great companies "on sale." I have started to add on QQQ Etf to my portfolio. Below I will share the reason why.

The program confirms exactly why I’m stepping in to buy while others are selling. If you look at the far right of the graph, you’ll see a cluster of green dots. These are automated 'buy signals' that appear from the program when it detects that the market has gotten "exhausted" from selling.

Right now, the price has dropped all the way to near to -2SD line (the bottom red dashed line). In simple terms, this means the QQQ is trading at a statistical extreme—it is deeply "on sale" relative to its long-term trend. While the "Anthropic Panic" dominates the headlines, this chart shows that the math has already moved into the "buy zone". Below is the statistic from the Back Testing, and it gives me the confidence to add some.

Back Testing Results: Signals Over Noise

Dataset Duration: Jan 1, 2010 – Feb 12, 2026 (16+ years of market history).

Metric	Value / Range	What it Means
Zone 2 (T2)	Reliable Trend Engine	The "Sweet Spot": A stable phase where the stock is likely to trend upward.
Median Return	~22% → 60%+	Profit Potential: The typical gain seen from this setup over time.
Median TTR	1–2 Days	Wait Time: How long it usually takes to get back to "even" or profit.
P90 TTR	3–9 Days	The Slow Bounce: In 90% of cases, the recovery happens within 9 days.
Max TTR	11–24 Days	Worst Case: The longest historical wait time before a recovery occurred.
Worst MAE	-0.8% to -4%	The "Ouch" Factor: The maximum amount the stock price dropped further after the signal.
Capital Lock Risk	Low–Moderate	Stuck Money: The risk of your cash being tied up in a losing position for a long time.

The reason I am "nibbling" here is simple: risk-to-reward asymmetry. According to the data, when the QQQ enters this zone (Zone 2), the "Ouch factor" (MAE) is historically low—usually between -0.8% to -4%. Compare that to a median return that can soar from 22% to over 60%, and the trade becomes a mathematical no-brainer.

Furthermore, I don't like my capital being "stuck" in a stagnant trade. The Median Time to Recovery (TTR) of just 1–2 days suggests that the market usually realizes its overreaction quickly. In 90% of cases (the P90 threshold), the recovery happens in under 9 days.

Invest using Data, Maths and Statistic.

Why I Am Not Buying Gold or Silver Now

2026-02-06T13:46:00.000+08:00

Gold and silver are having a moment. Prices have pulled back from recent highs, and volatility remains elevated.

This is not a statement about where gold or silver will go next. It is simply a description of how I make decisions—and why, based on that process, I am not adding gold or silver at current levels.

I Buy Based on Deviation, Not Narratives

Gold and silver are often framed around the same set of arguments: inflation, government debt, currency debasement, and geopolitical risk. These narratives are not new. They have existed for decades and resurface whenever prices rise.

What changes is not the story, but the distance between price and its long-term trend. When I look at gold and silver today, I do not see assets trading below their historical mean. I see prices that remain above it.

Gold Chart

Silver Chart
Gold and silver are not short-term instruments. Entry price matters. Much of the easy money is typically made well before prices become widely discussed. At current levels, the probability-weighted outcome does not justify action for me.

So I wait.

Market Sentiment Engine: Mr. Market's "Mood" for 31 Jan 2026

2026-01-31T13:32:00.001+08:00

Most people trade based on "gut feel." When I first started looking for a data driven method, I only found Trends and Standard Deviations (the "average" movement of a stock). It is a good guiding method, but it has flaws: in a bad market, "low" can always go lower. To fix that, I built a custom engine that doesn't just look at price—it looks at Market Sentiment holistically. Think of it like having a weather satellite for the stock market. It doesn't predict the future, but it tells you exactly what the current "climate" is so you don’t get caught in a storm without an umbrella.

The Engine Behind

To keep us from making emotional mistakes, the engine uses three smart guardrails:

1. Automated Regime Detection The market has two modes: Bull and Bear. The engine automatically detects which "Regime" we are in. In a Bear regime, the engine gets "pickier," stopping us from "catching a falling knife" just because a price looks cheap.

2. The Safety Net Generic rules (like "buy if it drops 5%") are dangerous because some stocks are naturally wilder than others. The engine calculates Smart Buffers based on how a stock actually behaves. If a stock is calm, the buffer is tight; if it’s wild, the buffer widens. We only move when the "rubber band" is truly stretched to its limit.

3. The Mood Meter Instead of just one indicator, the engine performs Sentiment Synthesis. It checks if "Is the current price way too far away from where it usually are?", "Is the general direction of the market actually pointing up or down?" and "Are people buying/selling with real conviction right now?". This gives us a single "Mood Score" that tells us if Mr. Market is in a state of Euphoria (time to sell) or Panic (time to shop).

Reading the Signals: What the Dots Mean

Red Dot (Momentum Trim): Mr. Market is dancing on the tables. He’s over-excited, and prices are stretched too thin. This is usually a good time to "trim" or take some profits off the table.

Light Green Dot (Cautious Buy): Mr. Market is starting to worry. Prices are dipping into "bargain" territory, but we’re moving in slowly and carefully.

Bright Green Dot (Accumulation): Mr. Market is getting scared. This is a stronger signal to pick up more shares while others are hesitating.

Dark Green Dot (Crash Buy): Mr. Market is having a total meltdown. These dots are rare—they only appear when prices are irrationally low. It’s a "fire sale" moment.

ES3.SI – STI ETF

Mood (Euphoria/Optimism/Neutral/Fear/Panic)

SPY – State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Mood (Neutral)

2800.HK

Mood (Neutral)

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares

Mood (Euphoria)

BND – Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

Mood (Neutral)

TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

Mood (Neutral)

Trend (Bearish)

STI at All-Time High: My Simple Game Plan In Today's Market

2026-01-24T14:38:00.000+08:00

Happy 2026, everyone! If you’ve been watching the news and charts lately, you’ll notice that global equities are hitting All-Time Highs (ATH). Even our local Straits Times Index (STI) has been on a record-breaking run, recently breaching the 4,800 mark.

When markets are this "hot," it’s natural to feel a mix of excitement and "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out). But for someone who have been through times like this before (E.g 1997/98, dot com, GFC, etc), I like to look at the numbers before jumping in.

The Reality Check: PE Ratio & Standard Deviation

To understand if we are overpaying, I look at two "health markers":

Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: Currently, the STI is trading at a forward PE of around 16x. Historically, our market is "cheap" when it’s below 12x and "fair" at 14x. While we aren't at the crazy levels of the dot-com era, we are certainly no longer in the "bargain bin." We are paying a premium for expected earnings growth in our banks and blue chips.

Standard Deviation (SD): In technical terms, the STI is currently above the +2 Standard Deviation level. The STI is currently trading above the "Extreme Optimism" line, history has shown that they rarely stay there for long before "reverting to the mean" (the blue center line).

How I Am Investing Now

I’m not selling everything, but I am being cautiously selective. For now, I am still doing dollar cost for my world index etf, but only when it starts to pull back like the recent news on the Greenland. For correction, you can refer to this post on what I normally would do. You can also check out this post to see if your retirement fund is able to withstand any market shock.

Can You Afford to Retire? Use This Calculator

2025-12-18T16:50:00.006+08:00

I have always wonder if I am ready to retire or force to retire (due to layoffs) base on my assets. However, I was not able to find one that is able to do projections that includes SRS and CPF Life payout. Thus I started out this mini-project to come out with one that is able to show how long my retirement funds can last and till at what age. I have also included the Monte Carlo simulation to stress test this portfolio and tell you the percentage of success base on your input parameters.

Most of the input fields are self-explainatory. I will explain these for clarity.

Cash Floor - For some, during retirement, they want some safety net by keeping a certain amount of cash all the times.

Travel Window - This is fix for first 10 years as most tend to travel more when they are just retired, and this also make sense as they are still the most healthy.

MC Trials - This is how many times you want the Monte Carlo simulation to run and stress test your portfolio.

Income Stream - This is the income you may receive from either property rental, stocks dividend, or any other.

The algorithm also cater for reduction in spending to the base expense from age 76 onwards. This make sense as one enters the slow-go and the no-go years.

Run Deterministic - After running this, it will project in the table below on how much of your retirement fund will be left and how long it can last you.

Run Monte Carlo - This is to stress test your portfolio, it uses mainly the 'Equities StdDev' for this testing. The result shows you in the very depressed scenarios for equities, how long can your fund last if these scenarios were to happen during your retirement years.

May be worth having a look at this asset class now - from Howard Marks memo

2025-04-13T10:48:00.001+08:00

Howard Marks is a veteran investor and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. He published his memo about his observations and thoughts on the market, and they are widely read by many investors, including Warren Buffet. In his recent memo and interviews, he mentioned that the credit market offers a better deal now than equities. After some research, I found these 2 Etfs, one is listed in the Singapore Stock Exchange and one listed in London Stock Exchange, so that investors will not be subjected to the 30% tax.

These should not be the core portfolio but satellite ones just to augment the main core portfolio, and they should not be more than 5% of your entire portfolio. Again this depends on your risk appetite. These are non-investment grade bonds (rated BB and below) and therefore the probability of default is higher. However, to mitigate this risk, using ETF does help as it is a basket of bonds.

iShares USD Asia High Yield Bond ETF (QL3)

This is listed in SGX, domiciled in Singapore. The fund size is huge, meaning there is liquidity, and after the market volatility last few weeks, the yield is higher now.

iShares Broad $ High Yield Corp Bond UCITS ETF (HYUS)

This bond Etf is fairly new, inception in 2022 and is listed in the LSE, and domiciled in Ireland, bond yield of more than 8%.

I owned these 2 Etfs, this post is not an advice to buy or sell.

I added these over the last few weeks of market volatility

2025-04-12T15:24:00.015+08:00

It was a roller coaster ride the last few weeks with major indices crashing into the Bear market zone. If you have read my previous blog here, you will know that the 2nd tranche of warchest will be deployed into the index etf due to the market condition then. The approach is mechanical, we are not economist, dont need to know reason why market dropped, just need to know if market has presented a value at any time. In a volatile market like now, one does not have to worry too much if you have done your proper asset allocation as in the post here.

Apart from the index etf, I have also invested some bullets into the Singapore market. Most of the value investors have waited long as the market(except for Reits) was expensive then. And this is what I bought.

Singapore banks are the favorites among dividend investors, and due to the poor market sentiment, they have also pulled back. This is not a correction, just a pulled back from their high. I have added a small amount into buying OCBC shares. At current price, it is still not cheap enough to invest in big.

Here is why I bought OCBC instead of DBS. At $15 and below, I will start to deploy in tranches base on the data below.

Using the data from the last 5 years, discounted EPS of 1.2 (to have a margin of safety). The highest price OCBC was more than $17 before it pulled back.

For DBS, using discounted EPS of 2.8, it hit the highest stock price of more than $46 before it pulled back.

At the pulled backed price of $38 last few days, it is still not attractive enough.

This is not advice to buy and sell, do your own due diligence.

How I invest (Mechanically) during a market correction and it works

2025-03-31T11:52:00.000+08:00

Just last week, as major market indices dipped into the correction zones, I finally had the chance to open up my war chest and deployed first tranche of cash into the market. This is all thanks to the current US President, whom has made decisions to roll out policies that is causing uncertainty to the US and world economy. And Mr Market hates uncertainty, and thus the sell off follows.

In the past few weeks, I've seen financial youtuber and analyst telling investors to buy the dip. Some of them said when the indexes correct to 10%, they will start buying, some use certain economic indicators to determine when to start buying. But none shared the step by step method to show how to buy during a market correction. In this post, I will be sharing the method that I am using and why I started buying last week.

Before I share the method, let me also share what triggered the decision to do a lump sum add on to the ETF now. Below are the 2 charts from AAII investor sentiment survey and CNN Fear and Greed Index, both are showing extreme fear in the market, and the survey from AAII indicated that investors today are even more bearish as compared to the historical average. This is not the first time we are presented with such pessimism and it certainly wont be the last time, remember the recent pandemic sell off and the Great Financial crisis some time ago.

As market presents a discount, we should be happy.

Here we go;

This method only applies on broadbased ETF, eg. S&P500, World Index, QQQ. Does not apply to individual stocks.
When market corrects 10% or there is extreme pessimism in market as presented in the 2 charts above, start opening up war chest slowly and divide the amount into 6 portions.
Use monthly moving average (MA), 10, 20, 50.
When index price close below monthly 10 MA, start monthly dollar cost average (DCA) and add a lump sum (from 1/6).
When index price close below monthly 20 MA, add another lump sum (from 2/6).
When index price close below monthly 50 MA, add another lump sum (from 3/6).
When index price close above monthly 10 MA, add another lump sum (from 4/6).
When index price close above monthly 20 MA, add another lump sum (from 5/6).
When index price close above monthly 50 MA, add the last lump sum (from 6/6).
Bullets finished by now, get on with life, and let market do it's magic.

I was thinking should I also include when to stop the DCA in this post, but this one gets abit technical, will probably write in future post. When the market turns and it is above the initial first lump sum (point 4), it also means market is on up trend and more and more investors will also want to get into the market. This is also the time, at some juncture, one needs to adjust or stop the DCA and save up the bullets into the war chest to be used for the next down cycle again.

Happy holiday guys.

Navigating 2025 Market Uncertainty: The Classic 60/40 Portfolio Approach

2025-01-12T14:38:00.003+08:00

Happy 2025 All. As 2025 unfolds, many analysts are anticipating a potential market downturn fueled by high interest rates, slowing global growth, and persistent geopolitical tensions. Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump emerging as the next US President, is injecting a layer of volatility into markets.

As part of a defensive strategy, many have suggested to using alternative investment instruments and diversified models like the All-Weather Portfolio to mitigate risks from market volatility. While these approaches offer innovative solutions, in this article, I aim to demonstrate—using data-driven insights—why the classic 60/40 equities and bonds allocation continues to be a reliable and effective strategy.

Let's use these 3 periods to backtest both the All-Weather and the 60/40,

Jan 2000 to Apr 2009 (known as lost decade)
Apr 2009 to Dec 2024 (best bull run)
Jan 1995 to Dec 2024 (buy and hold approach for 30 years)

Jan 2000 to Apr 2009 (known as lost decade)

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio obtained a 6.27% compound annual return, with a 7.70% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -11.57%.

The 60/40 Portfolio obtained a 1.94% compound annual return, with a 10.22% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -28.11%.

Winner - Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

Apr 2009 to Dec 2024 (best bull run)

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio obtained a 6.79% compound annual return, with a 7.54% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -20.58%.

The 60/40 Portfolio obtained a 10.26% compound annual return, with a 9.60% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -24.41%.

Winner - 60/40 Portfolio

Jan 1995 to Dec 2024 (buy and hold approach for 30 years)

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio obtained a 7.67% compound annual return, with a 7.47% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -20.58%.

The 60/40 Portfolio obtained a 9.15% compound annual return, with a 10.02% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -28.11%.

Winner - 60/40 Portfolio

Conclusions

Both portfolios have their merits and can perform well during normal market conditions with periodic upsides and typical corrections. However, I believe a 60/40 approach is not too defensive, especially given the historical trend that markets are in an upward trajectory most of the time. While overly defensive strategies may provide stability, they risk sacrificing potential returns during market rallies. The 60/40 approach ensures that investors can capitalize on long-term market gains without being overly exposed to short-term volatility.

Can Your Portfolio Survive the Lost Decade? Mine Did (With Backtesting)!

2024-12-07T11:05:00.004+08:00

In my previous post, I discussed using a 5.5% return to sustain a consistent drawdown for retirement expenses, primarily through investments in index funds or ETFs. In this post, I’ll dive into how I’m currently implementing this strategy as I prepare for my future retirement.

Since this is my retirement fund, ensuring its resilience during economic downturns is critical. For instance, it’s essential that the portfolio remains sustainable even during harsh periods like the "Lost Decade", a time when the return of the S&P 500 was Negative. To address this, I will be backtesting my portfolio against this worst-case scenario in market history. This helps me evaluate its performance during extended periods of low or negative returns, ensuring that my strategy is robust enough to withstand such challenges. I’ll also explain why this portfolio is particularly suitable for my retirement goals.

My Retirement-Ready Portfolio: A 50/50 Mix That Works

The “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten years from December 31, 1999, to December 31, 2009, when the S&P 500 delivered an annualized total return of -0.9%. This marked only the second time in history the U.S. stock market experienced a negative decade, the first being during the Great Depression.

Before we begin the backtest, let me outline the structure of my portfolio. It follows a balanced approach with a 50% allocation to equities and 50% to bonds. However, within each of the component, it is further diversify.

The diagram below shows the construct of the portfolio. Do note that these are not the exact tickers which I have bought except for QQQ, due to the US estate duty and taxes. I am using these tickers below because the website that I am using for backtesting only have these from the US.

As illustrated in the diagram below, this portfolio delivers a return of 4.43%, in contrast to the negative return seen in the S&P 500 during this difficult period. And importantly, the volatility is within moderate range, a balanced one for a retirement portfolio. Since this portfolio is designed for retirement, it's crucial that the volatility isn’t too high, which could pose unnecessary risks, or too low, which may limit growth potential.

Stress Testing My Portfolio: Will It Survive

Imagine someone retire with $430k (read previous post how this amount is derived) thinking that all is good for his retirement at age 65. But just as he is about to settle into retirement, he is face the unfortunate timing of entering the "Lost Decade. Super unlucky.

Over the next 10 years, as shown in the diagram above, the portfolio generates an annual return of only 4.43%. With an annual withdrawal of $23,520 to cover expenses, the portfolio’s balance would decrease to $375,238.02 by the end of the decade.

After enduring the worst period, the portfolio begins to recover. For the remaining 25 years of his life, withdrawals continue from the remaining balance. As shown in the diagram below, even with consistent drawdowns, the portfolio holds steady and even have a healthy balance. And yes, it survive. On the flip side, he could have spend more and die with zero :)

This is not a financial advice.

Do You Need $3M to Retire? Breaking Down the Numbers

2024-12-03T16:43:00.001+08:00

In my previous blog post, I discussed key findings about retirement from the OCBC Financial Wellness Index 2024 report. These findings were also highlighted in local papers, where it was mentioned that retirees would need an estimated $1.5 million to $3 million to sustain monthly expenses of $6,000 to $12,000.

This is quite disheartening because based on the report below, Singapore has approximately 350,000 millionaires, which means over 90% of the population may fall short of this threshold. This raises a sobering question: Are the majority of Singaporeans destined to work indefinitely to sustain their retirement lifestyles?

Here is how I am preparing for my retirement

It was reported that most of the respondent selected "Lifestyle B", which means that each retiree will need $3430 per month for their expenses. For a couple, this amount will be $6860 per month. The actual amount may be lesser as they are staying in the same household, but for simplicity, lets use this amount.

Below we proceed further, here are some assumptions:

Husband maxed his CPF retirement sum to ERS ($3300)
Wife only managed up to FRS ($1600)
Both will receive around $4900 from CPF Life at age 65
Both retire at age 65.

Using the assumptions above, a couple would need to cover $1960 of expenses per month on top of the CPF Life payout. Therefore, annually, the couple will need $23,520.

If they invest in an index fund yielding a 5.5% annual return, they would need approximately $430,000 in total savings. This calculation accounts for a 2% annual inflation rate and it allows you to continue drawing this amount till 100 years old.

Using a financial calculator, these are the parameters I used.

Current savings = $430k

Interest rate = 5.5%

Withdrawal per year = $23,520

How long wlll the savings last = 35 years

You may have also noticed that after the couple has passed on, there is still a balance of $505,940.42 which can be passed down to their children (if any). In my previous blogpost, I mentioned that one should start planning for retirement as early as possible, and this is why. The compounding effect is our best friend if we use it early.

My retirement is not a dream after all.

This is not a financial advice.

Fewer Singaporeans Are Preparing for Retirement—WHY? : OCBC Survey 2024

2024-12-02T15:49:00.001+08:00

The latest OCBC Financial Wellness Index reveals a concerning trend: the percentage of Singaporeans actively planning for retirement has dropped from 60% to 54%. This means that nearly half (46%) of respondents have not begun preparing for their retirement.

Alarmingly, one in four Singaporeans only plans to start—or has just started—retirement planning in their 50s or later.

This delay in planning could have significant consequences for financial security during retirement. Starting early provides more time to grow savings, benefit from compounding interest, and navigate unexpected life events without derailing retirement goals.

Retirement planning should begin as soon as you receive your first paycheck. Establishing good financial habits early ensures a more comfortable and stress-free retirement. Below, I share my thoughts on why it is important to start early.

For those interested, here is the full OCBC survey.

It is about compounding. It’s essential to start saving and investing as early as possible to maximize the benefits of compounding. The compound effect is a powerful financial principle where small, consistent contributions grow exponentially over time. Over the years, this creates a snowball effect, with your money growing faster as time progresses. Using the rule of 72, at a 7% return, your money will double every 10.28 years.

It is about having options. In the past year, we read about staff being laid off in waves and for individuals without a solid financial safety net, the uncertainty and anxiety can be overwhelming, especially for those with school-going children. Now, imagine facing a layoff at 50. Many of us understand how challenging it can be to secure another job at that stage of life. However, having built a strong retirement fund by then provides you with the financial security and as well as options to explore other alternatives —whether that’s taking time to reskill, starting a business, or pursuing personal interests.

One can achieve this return through using a combination of stock and bond allocation. And readers know that I prefer using index fund.

This is not a financial advice.

The Big Bond Question after Bessent to Treasury: Are the Tables Finally Turning?

2024-11-27T17:06:00.006+08:00

After the recent lowering of interest rates, bond prices didn’t rise as many had expected. Instead, they dipped further, though they didn’t fall below previous lows. Since then, bond prices have remained relatively stable, neither surging nor collapsing. However, the appointment of Scott Bessent to the Treasury has brought new optimism to the market. Bond prices have started to respond positively, and will this marks the start of a recovery.

During Donald Trump’s presidency (2017–2021), he often called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, believing it would fuel economic growth, boost markets, and enhance the U.S.'s global competitiveness. At the time, his stance clashed with the Fed, which was raising rates to control inflation and ensure long-term stability.

Now, with the Federal Reserve signaling the peak of rate hikes and began to lower rates, the direction aligns with what Trump advocated during his term. This is welcome news for bond investors.

Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When rates rise, existing bonds with lower yields lose value because newer bonds offer higher returns. Conversely, when rates fall, bond prices recover as their yields become more attractive compared to newly issued debt. With rates trending down, bonds are becoming appealing again, offering potential gains for those who invested during the high-rate period.

As the easing cycle unfolds, the bond market may enter a period of recovery, presenting an opportunity for investors to benefit from both stable income and capital appreciation.

As shown in the chart below, the current yield for the 20-year Treasury and investment-grade corporate bond ETFs is over 4%, which is quite attractive. Recently, it was reported that Singapore’s core inflation stands at around 2.1% and is expected to range between 2.5% and 3% in 2024.

With bond yields comfortably outpacing inflation, I am happy as they also form an important part to my asset allocation strategy.

Source: gurufocus

These 3 reasons Could Fuel the Continuation of the Chinese Stock Market Rally

2024-10-06T11:51:00.000+08:00

Post-COVID, foreign investors significantly reduced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China as shown in the chart below. However, as China has launched it's stimulus package to save its economy, these investors now face a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) on potential opportunities in the stock market and are returning as seen in the last week. But this will take time.

In Q2 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a survey of 20,000 depositors in 50 cities across the country. As shown in the chart below, respondents are more willing and have been saving more in the last few years. In fact, ther household savings reached a record high of $19 trillion. With the start of the bull run in the Chinese stock market, how long will it be before these funds from the savings flow into the stock market. Can you imagine the liquidity into the stock market even if it is just a small percentage from this $19 trillion.

As the Chinese stock market is just out of the pessimism, most of the retail investors are still questioning if the spike is real and can be sustainable, so we are still far from the "Euphoria" stage of the emotion. Thus the bull run should be able to continue for now.

source: https://prosperion.us/commentary/timeless-truths-cycle-market-emotions/

The Great Chinese Rally: A Buying Opportunity or Time to Exit?

2024-10-04T10:34:00.002+08:00

What a remarkable week it has been. After my previous post(here) on taking a look at the Chinese stocks again, it rallied with great momentum for more than a week. I dont know it will rallied with such a momentum, if I knew, I would have thrown in the kitchen sink as well.

As I mentioned earlier, these patterns tend to repeat: once the value becomes apparent, investors begin to take notice. Now, with the recent rally, many are questioning whether they should sell their positions—many of which have finally turned positive—or whether it’s a good time to enter the market for those looking to buy.

I am also holding onto a number of the good businesses before the great crash resulted from the crackdown policy by the Chinese government. Before deciding what to do, let's look at where the Chinese stocks are now. Most of us would have invested in the Chinese stocks through the HKSE. Let's look at the CAPE ratio of Hang Seng index.

Historically, Shiller PE Ratio for the Hang Seng Index reached a record high of 40.2 and a record low of 8.1, The latest information that I can find is dated 30 June 2024. After the rallied, do note that it will be higher now.

source: https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratios-by-country/

Do also note that in 2019 and 2023, when the CAPE ration is around 12, the rally wasn't sustainable and it corrected to all time low.

source: https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/5731/shiller-pe-ratio-for-the-hang-seng-index

What will I be doing

As mentioned, I do have a few counters which most have turned positive after the recent rally. For the 3110 hk ETF, I will not be doing anything at all as it is my cash inflow given the attractive yield of 7%.

For the stocks, I will not be selling them now. As I have waited for a few years, and the stocks rally have just started, let's ride the wave for now.

There’s a common saying that two key factors drive the stock market: liquidity and confidence. While the Chinese government has injected liquidity through recent policy changes, we have yet to see a corresponding surge in investor confidence in the Chinese market.

China’s New Stimulus: Is Now Time to look again at Its Stock Market?

2024-09-25T11:31:00.001+08:00

China just introduced a new round of stimulus measures aimed at propping up its slowing economy, which has been hit by sluggish consumer demand, weak property markets, and external pressures like trade tensions. Many has been sceptical about investing in the Chinese stock market, as they still remember the regulatory crackdown beginning in late 2020, when authorities took sweeping actions that reshaped the landscape for some of the country’s largest and most prominent tech companies. Many have spoken on these risks, regulatory uncertainty and governance issues preventing them from investing into the Chinese stock market.

What did I do

Investing in a broad-based dividend index ETF to gain exposure to the Chinese stock market(and emerging markets) is one way to balance growth potential with risk mitigation. This strategy can provide diversification and constant dividend income.

The index is 3110,hk, listed in the HKSE and dividend yield about 7%.. The ETF’s portfolio, comprising around 50 companies across both China and Hong Kong, provides valuable diversification. This spread helps mitigate some of the inherent risks, such as regulatory uncertainty and market volatility, associated with Chinese markets.. This is ok for me, meanwhile, I will just collect dividend and wait for market to realise it's value. This same storyline repeats every time, every crisis is an opportunity if the downside has been carefully managed.

Below is the chart on the breakdown of this ETF.

Despite those risks mentioned in this post, it may be worthwhile taking a look again at the Chinese stock market, especially now that interest rate is coming down, investors are seeking alternative high yield assets to park their money.

This is not a financial advice of any kind.

The S&P 500 powered ahead after the rate cut, can still buy?

2024-09-23T10:58:00.000+08:00

After over a year of speculation and anticipation, the Federal Reserve has finally initiated its long-awaited easing cycle. In a decisive move, the Fed exceeded market expectations by slashing its benchmark interest rate by a substantial half a percentage point. This aggressive reduction signals a strong commitment to stimulating economic growth and mitigating potential risks in the economy.

What does history tell us after a rate cut

This table reflects the S&P 500's performance in the 12 months following Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Recession Years (1990, 2001, 2008, 2020): S&P 500 performance was mostly negative, reflecting the economic downturns and uncertainties post-rate cuts.

Non-Recession Years (1995, 1998, 2019): The S&P 500 saw strong gains after rate cuts, driven by economic growth and investor optimism

What does TA show now

As per my previous post, once the S&P 500 breakout of the previous high and stay there, high probability of it keeping the upward momentum.

What will I be doing

This is to remind me on what to do when the scenarios below happen, and this is not a recommendation for you as everyone of us have a different financial situation.

1. As S&P 500 has gaped up and broken the resistance, will buy when there is a dip.

2. Maintain a reasonable stock, bond and cash allocation so that in the event of a prolong downturn, I will not be force to sell my stocks as the cash portion will tie me through.

3. If the long term TA indicators show weakness, will take some money off the table first, incase it becomes another 2000/2001 or 2008 crash.

S&P 500 Nears Historic High Before Fed Decision – Is It Time to Buy?

2024-09-16T15:33:00.001+08:00

The S&P 500 index has been on a remarkable rise year on year even after the past corrections historically. As the index is approaching new high, this makes many wonder: Is it the right time to buy into the market?

The S&P 500 is reaching new highs thanks to strong economic growth, good corporate earnings, and easy money policies. Important signs like consumer spending, job numbers, and business investment are all looking good. This makes investors feel positive about the market.

Key Economic Drivers

The economy's strong performance is key to the stock market's rise. The August report suggested that consumer spending, a big part of the economy, is still strong. People are spending money as the job market is also doing well.

Technical Analysis

Following the market correction in August 2024, the S&P 500 established strong technical support, and this is follow by a second support in September as shown in the diagram above. Both the Stochastic and macd technical indicators are gaining strength and momentum, if it is able to breakout of the previous high, there is a potential of another 500 points of upside.

What do you think?

US office reits on the uptrend, is it sustainable

2024-08-04T10:31:00.001+08:00

Overall, Reits listed in SGX have performed well in view of the coming rate cut. Today, I want to look at the US office reits in particular, as they have been beaten badly due to low occupancy rate since Covid, and the property valuation affected by the high interest rate environment.

Prime US REIT (SGX:OXMU) (PRIME)

1. Turn long (arrow) with surge in volume

2. And this candle closed up the gap down on the left

3. Price close above 20ma

Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX:CMOU) (KORE)

1. Breakout from the consolidation

2. Strong surge in volume

3. Price close above the gap down on the left

4. Price still above 20ma

They are still on the uptrend, however, do not buy now as price has gone up for a while now, wait for entry.