Kaiser, advisor

Storage vs. Bandwidth

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:19:00 +0000

The Internet in 60 Seconds

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 15:13:00 +0000

(courtesy of go-globe.com)

Near-Field Communications Phones are Coming!

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Mon, 30 May 2011 10:19:00 +0000

Google Wallet uses near-field communications to make it easier to pay and use gift cards.

There was speculation recently that the next iPhone could have this enabled as well.

In B-School, my team did a marketing project on something similar. It's great to see it's becoming a reality!

Social Media Revolution

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Tue, 17 May 2011 10:19:00 +0000

Social Media Demographics

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:19:00 +0000

I'll take these with a grain of salt, but the trends are interesting.

(found on reddit)

HTML 5 Video: A threat to Flash and Sliverlight?

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 10:19:00 +0000

Well to be honest, I don't know if it's a threat in the short term. The example is choppy and required a couple of reloads for me, and I'm sure it will be ages before enough people are running browsers that fully support HTML5 and the wrinkles are ironed out, but it's still neat!

Check it out!

(not embedded for obvious reasons)

The Social Landscape

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 11:19:00 +0000

(via Reddit)

Bing Maps Augmented Reality

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 18:55:00 +0000

Looks like Bing may be getting ahead of Google maps a bit. They are introducing a street-view type interface with 3D understanding of the surroundings, which enables very smooth transitions. It also incorporates crowd-sourced imagery from flikr.

To me, one of the coolest features is that it works indoors and can incorporate live video for a tele-presense or augmented-reality features. The astronomy feature is another super cool innovation.

Hat tip: InOttawa

Lego Augmented Reality

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 04:44:00 +0000

hat tip to Lisa who told me about the concept

The Olympics are right around the corner

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 11:19:00 +0000

Google has put together some seriously cool technology for the games in Vancouver.

Check out the Google blog post

I personally can't wait for the Men's and Women's hockey!

Mockup Testing

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 22:20:00 +0000

VW's latest brand strategy

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 23:21:00 +0000

Have you seen VW's latest brand strategy?

Meet Sluggy Patterson on:

Twitter
The VW site
Facebook

(photo credit: Speed Hunters)

He claims that he's the person who started the VW punch buggy game. Great use of social media!

Hat tip: My team-mate in b-school Lisa

RIP Sun.com: Mar 19, 1986 - Feb 1, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:19:00 +0000

The Sun deal has been finalized by Oracle

Sun.com now redirects to Oracle.

Even java.sun.com now carries the "Oracle Sun Developer Network" banner.

I'm not an Apple fanboy, but I love my iPod, and the iPad looks pretty sweet

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 18:24:00 +0000

I'm just not sure about the typing. It looks like it might not be as brilliantly ergonomic as my iPod touch jest because of the size.

iPad article on wikipedia

Update

Just had to repost this comment from Slashdot:

I'm buying one. I'll snatch one of these puppies up for the sole purpose of donning my Yoko Ono, blind-people shades, holding this thing to my ear, and asking the kids at the Genius Bar why my iPhone for the visually impaired gets such shitty reception.

Hey, this site looks like Windows 3.1. Wait, minesweeper?

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Cool 16 bit nostalgia!

http://www.michaelv.org/

Windows 3.1

I love Burton!

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 17:26:00 +0000

I was on twitter this morning, and I noticed Burton snowboards tweeted about a Canada Post shredder stamp. Since I helped do the analysis for the platform that Canada Post uses to sell the stamps, I tweeted a link to the stamp back to Burton, and they re-tweeted it to their 2,600 followers!

I love Burton Snowboards. I've owned 3 over the years - An Air 62, a Custom 62 I rode for years, and now a Custom 66 (which totally kicks ass). Here are some pics I took over xmas. Now back to studying

Drucker’s 5 Success Factors for New Ventures

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 11:19:00 +0000

Peter Drucker’s Success Factors for New Ventures:

A focus on the market
Financial foresight – cash flow and capital needs
Building top management team – long before needed (and can be afforded)
Role of the founding entrepreneur
For internal start-ups – insulating the new venture

“There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.”

- Peter Drucker

Google's new approach to China - pulling out because of censorship

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 11:19:00 +0000

After Google was hit with targeted attacks against accounts of human rights campaigners in China, it made a very bold move: Accusing the Chinese central government of orchestrating the attacks, and eliminating restrictions on the google.cn search engine. If one does a google image search for Tienanmen Square, the top results will be of the 'incident', not of Chinese government-approved pictures of the square itself.

Google also threatened to pull out of China if it can't find a way to continue to run google.cn without restrictions that restrict free speech.

It will be interesting to see what happens in terms of market share if it does pull out. Will Baidu move even higher, or will Microsoft and Yahoo pick up some of the slack?

UPDATED:

I just read an interesting article on the subject from Slate: Can China become rich without becoming free?

Marketing: Dove Onslaught

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 20:34:00 +0000

This is pretty serious marketing. It makes a good point, but it's also a bit hypocritical: Unilever (The Owner of Dove) markets products like Oil of Olay that are deeply rooted in the same messages being shunned in this ad. Furthermore, it also markets Axe - With Ads that are essentially the antithesis of this one.

They were sitting ducks when someone named Rye Clifton pointed this out

But wait, it gets worse. Greenpeace used the same ad to point out Unilever's environmental impact

Sometimes, losing control with social media is a bad thing.

(Hat tip to my marketing prof.)

Macroeconomics: Multipliers

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 11:21:00 +0000

Here's a little something I did for a macroeconomics course recently:

Macroeconomics: Much ado about multipliers (Sept 24^th 2009) The Economist

Question: What are multipliers, and what are the reasons they may not influence GDP growth as much as politicians hope in the current downturn?

According to US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake, fiscal policy could have been employed during the 1929 recession to prevent The Great Depression. Furthermore, he believes that fiscal policy was not employed in a manner that would have mitigated the worst effects during the depression. The current economic downturn has warranted a very different response. The US, Canadian, and other countries’ responses worldwide have reacted to the downturn with fiscal policy measures in the form of infrastructure funding, corporate bailouts, and other strategies. This has taken place in true Keynesian fashion with the goal of restoring economic growth. In the US, the $787bn relief effort is primarily in the form of infrastructure spending and multi-billion dollar bailouts as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). For instance, financial institutions such as the Bank of America and Citigroup were granted $45bn each to prevent them from failing. US politicians and economists have argued fiercely over the efficacy of spending vs. tax cuts and their associated multipliers effects on GDP. In Canada, infrastructure spending is also a large component of the fiscal policy introduced to aid recovery, and tax cuts and incentives have also been introduced. For instance, a tax credit for home renovations is intended to fuel consumer spending and drive employment.

According to Keynes, the effects of fiscal policy initiative on GDP are greater than just the amount of money dedicated. He argues that since GDP is comprised of more than just government spending (GDP = C + I + G + NX), other factors are stimulated by applying government spending and reanimating stalled sectors of the economy. Furthermore, this unleashes a chain of events which proceed with increasing momentum which has a multiplying effect on the government spending in terms of GDP growth.

However, there are several factors that inhibit the multipliers. Firstly, different types of spending have different ranges of multiplier effects. Governments must chose carefully when selecting the type of fiscal policy to apply.

Secondly, government spending can “crowd out” planned private investment and consumption. This can happen in two ways. Consumption and investment may be reduced if the government raises taxes to finance the spending. Alternately, increased interest rates as a result of government spending could restrict the consumption by making it more expensive for consumers to borrow in order to make big purchases. Even the expectation of the increase in taxes or interest rates can influence consumer confidence and slow GDP growth. These effects can be significant enough to actually create a negative multiplier, completely undermining fiscal policy. Interestingly, this does not yet seem to be an issue in Canada. The Bank of Canada recently warned that rising household debt, combined with Government debt, poses a risk to economic recovery, suggesting that Canadians are actually spending above their means. This has the frightening implication that Canadians are not making enough money to make purchases in general, regardless of consumer confidence.

Thirdly, as mentioned in the article, stimulus can “leak” abroad. The US and Canada are relatively open economies. This means that citizens and businesses can import and export goods, participate in financing activities, and consume and sell services abroad. This results in some funds introduced as fiscal stimulus measures spilling across borders. Therefore, the stimulus loses the full impact of the funds in terms of the spending itself and the multiplier.

Lastly, long term effects of the stimulus may erode the multiplier by artificially sustaining companies that should be allowed to fail. For instance, it could be argued that GM and Chrysler should not have been bailed out since they have been producing relatively poor-quality automobiles which are not as fuel efficient as those made by competitors. Saving them thwarts the Shumpeterian notion of creative-destruction and does not allow innovative companies to take their place and thrive. Furthermore, some economists argue that subsidies in general erode long-term competitiveness. Thus, bailouts and subsidies may reduce the impact of multipliers in the long run.

In addition to the factors listed above which may reduce multipliers, another reason that causes concern to politicians is the fact that the effects of fiscal policy and the magnitude of multipliers are difficult to predict. This is partly because of the nature of macroeconomics in general: Externalities and changing parameters make ceteris paribus assumptions impossible. Forces at play in any macroeconomic event will always be different for similar events, making even general quantitative predictions difficult, and leads economists to the answer “it depends” in many cases. For example, historic evidence about types of multipliers is largely based on military spending, but most policies in place in the current downturn are based on infrastructure spending. Furthermore, since interest rates have been near zero in the US and Canada for the last several months, lowering interest rates as a Keynesian response is not an option. This results in further crowding-out.

In conclusion, multipliers are effects that cause fiscal policy measures to have greater impacts on GDP growth then the stimulus alone. However, factors such as differing efficacies of policy types, leakage, crowding out, and the thwarting of creative destruction all limit the effect of multipliers.

Table 1: Categories of fiscal policy and associated multiplier ranges (Source: The Atlantic)

Category	Estimated Policy Multiplier
	High	Low
Purchases of Goods and Services by the Federal Government	2.5	1
Transfers to State and Local Governments for Infrastructure	2.5	1
Transfers to State and Local Governments Not for Infrastructure	1.9	0.7
Transfers to Persons	2.2	0.8
One-Time Payments to Retirees	1.2	0.2
Two-Year Tax Cuts for Lower- and Middle- Income People	1.7	0.5
One-Year Tax Cuts for Higher-Income People	0.5	0.1
Extension of First-Time Homebuyer Credit	1	0.2

Figure 1 - Multipliers

Keynesian economics state that increases in tax cuts, low interest rates, and government spending should be applied in a downturn. This results in a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve (AD – AD¹). This shift triggers a multiplier effect that results in more spending, production, investment, which have rebound effects though the economy, resulting in another rightward shift in aggregate demand (AD^{1 –}AD²).The intersections of the short-run aggregate supply curve, the aggregate demand curve after the application of Keynesian policies and the multiplier, and the long-run aggregate supply curve indicate the increase in GDP on the X-axis.

GDP increases as a result of Keynesian Policies and Multipliers

Figure 2 – ‘Crowding-out’ when interest rates cannot be lowered

Under normal market conditions, increases in government spending or tax cuts would result in a rightward shift in IS, corresponding to a higher interest rate (I*), and higher GDP (Y*). A portion of the increase in Y is attributed to the fiscal multiplier.

However, in the current economic downturn, interest rates have not increased in accordance with Keynesian economics which dictate that interest rates should be kept low in conjunction with government investments in infrastructure to create a multiplier effect.

Because the interest rates are kept low, the shift from Y to Y¹on the X-Axis when LM shifts right comes at the expense of consumption and investment (i.e., ‘Crowding-Out’).

‘Crowding-out’ - Keynesian macroeconomic policies and near zero interest-rates

Microeconomics and iTunes

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 11:19:00 +0000

Here's a little something I did for a micro economics class recently.

Microeconomics: E pluribus tunum (Oct 22^nd 2009) The Economist

Question: Why did Apple introduce price discrimination on iTunes, and how can it optimize price discrimination to further maximize profit?
Perfect price discrimination is the goal of many businesses because it maximises revenue and minimizes consumer surplus. There are many challenges in achieving perfect price discrimination, but when Apple first introduced price discrimination in April 2009, it took a great step forward despite using a fairly basic approach.
Before Apple introduced price discrimination, it used a single-tier pricing model where every song cost $0.99 (or an equivalent in local currencies). Because of this uniform price, Apple presumably lost out on purchases and profits in some cases.
In terms of lost purchases, it is reasonable to assume that more purchases would have taken place if songs were offered at a price high enough to cover costs, but low enough to attract more buyers. In terms of lost profits, it is also reasonable to assume that some customers would have paid more for some songs.
These two cases show the advantage of selling goods as close as possible to the price buyers are willing to pay, as long as costs are covered.
iTunes and other electronic distributers have an interesting cost structure in that incremental supply costs are very small, meaning the supply curve is very elastic. Since iTunes is already established, it costs very little to provide any extra song to consumers. The ongoing costs in terms of network, software support, hosting, marketing, and administrative costs are borne regardless of sales volume, and the royalty costs for media sales are paid per sale.
This creates a challenge for iTunes in terms predicting the frequency of purchasing different songs at different price levels and optimizing the price to download ratio to maximize profits. This calculation increases in complexity as the number of price levels increases, but so do the benefits of discrimination, as seen in figure 1: Each new level of discrimination reduces consumer surplus and increases revenue.
Even if we assume all songs available for sale on iTunes are the same quality, there are many reasons consumers would pay different amounts for different songs. Assuming a normal distribution of musical preferences, two thirds of people would probably enjoy music in the same range which would probably include artists like The Beatles and Michael Jackson. On the “tails” there would be demand for increasingly obscure artists and genres. Songs in the middle distribution would likely not deviate widely from the $0.99 cent range due, but hard-to-find music on the tails appealing to limited musical tastes would likely sell with higher prices. Similarly, other music that would have been passed over by consumers would likely sell at lower prices that still cover costs. The downside includes the analysis, implementation, and opportunity costs of the price discrimination model itself (i.e., the opportunity costs of mistakenly pricing a song at $0.89 when $0.99 would have yielded more revenue).
In order to implement price discrimination, analysis must first decide the type that would be most appropriate. There are three types of price discrimination .
First degree price discrimination bases prices on the amount each type of consumer will pay. In microeconomic terms, the price is a function of demand elasticity. This type of price elasticity could be employed by iTunes because the demand for different songs is a function of consumer preferences. I.e., musical beauty is in the ear of the beholder.
Second degree price discrimination discounts prices proportionately with quantity. This type of price discrimination is used in certain instances on iTunes when an album is priced less than the sum of prices of the individual songs. However, it is not in place for unrelated songs. I.e., iTunes does not have a model where 100 individual songs could be purchased for the price of 90.
Third degree price discrimination varies price specific to the seller based on segmentation. I.e., customers living in Monte Carlo or Beverly Hills would likely pay more for songs than customers living in Harare. Other examples of market segments could be Queen’s MBA graduates or people living in subsidised housing. This is the type of price discrimination being referred to in the article when it stated “Person-specific, rather than song-specific, pricing would be more efficient. But sellers’ data are not refined enough to set different prices for different people.” Although it is true that this type of sophistication is not yet achievable with iTunes, personalized pricing will likely be possible in the future based on advancing technology. In fact, companies like Dell computers are able to achieve some level of this type of price discrimination using purchase histories, registration information (indicating demographics), clickstreams, search histories, and other methods.
Other pricing models could also be profitable for iTunes. According to the article, “The most revenue, according to the 2009 survey data, would be generated by charging the students $21.19 for entry and 37 cents a song. This would raise consumer surplus by 30% compared with uniform pricing.” Interestingly, this is a model similar to that employed by Costco wholesalers – charging a membership fee, then offering reduced prices based on high-quantity. Costco is not an electronic distributor and relies on completely different models of economies of scale and economies of scope, and price discrimination in retail stores would not be practical since every shopper pays the same price as every other shopper at Costco regardless of the quantity purchased. This contrasts with iTunes because of the low incremental cost of electronic distribution - in microeconomic terms, iTunes is able to leverage economies of scope by using the distribution model already in place to sell incremental songs.
In conclusion, iTunes implemented pricing to optimize revenue and minimize consumer surplus. The revenue growth and consumer surplus shrinkage are proportional with the number of price levels. iTunes currently leverages type 1 price discrimination based on consumer preferences and willingness to pay, and an aspect of type 2 discrimination based on quantity sales in terms of albums. It will likely be able to introduce type 3, ‘person-specific’ pricing in the future to further optimize profit.
Figure 1: Price discrimination at 3 price levels on iTunes

Before price discrimination, a single price (P) was offered. The revenue is bounded the pink box with P, D, A, and 0. The consumer surplus was the area above line P and the demand curve.

After price discrimination, 3 prices became available, represented as P¹at $1.29, the former single price at $0.99, and at $0.89.

The revenue from iTunes after price discrimination is equal to the sum of the following 3 boxes:

1. Bounded by P¹at $1.29, C, (low) D¹ and 0

2. Bounded by P¹at $0.99, A, (med) D¹ and (low) D¹

3. Bounded by P¹at $0.89, b, (high) D¹ and (med) D¹

Each new price level introduced reduces the amount of consumer surplus and increases the amount of revenue.

Price Discrimination and iTunes

Ev

[1] http://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2-micro-price-discrimination.html

[2] Pricing with market power – Chapter 7 (Included in class notes): Personalized pricing

Military contributions to technology - it's now happening in reverse

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 18:01:00 +0000

I did a research project on military contributions to technology when I was in Officer training school in the Navy.

Many of the technologies we rely on today were researched for military use. My own grandfather was a research scientist that made great leaps in chemistry during WWII, and some of his research was eventually published for academic use (Although his Ph.D thesis was classified for many years).

The Economist has an interesting take on this phenomenon, and it's arguing it's now happening in reverse.

THE earliest computers were used to crack codes and simulate nuclear explosions. The internet grew out of a military research project. In-car navigation systems rely on satellites that were put into orbit to guide ships, troops and missiles. The Boeing 747, with its raised cockpit, was designed as a military transporter. In each case a technology created for military use has gone on to become widely used by civilians. That this happens so often is not surprising: the military is, after all, a deep-pocketed customer prepared to fund the development of expensive new technologies. As gizmos become smaller and cheaper—and they invariably do—they are then able to percolate from the soldier on the battlefield to the man in the street.

News Flash: Ad dollars are moving online

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:42:00 +0000

According to The Economist, more than a quarter of advertising spending in the UK was spent on online ads in 2009. We aren't that far behind in Canada.

The growth is really staggering - This is one of the biggest reasons printed newspapers are going bankrupt or moving exclusively online.

This is hitting where it hurts at my company too - Printed advertising is a significant revenue stream at Canada Post.

The Economist

Losing Control with Social Media: Alexis Ohanian from Reddit at TED

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 23:48:00 +0000

I just saw this interesting TED talk linked from reddit (obviously)

Grow up, Norton and HP

noreply@blogger.com (John Currah) — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:56:00 +0000

These should not be the only options.