Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Johan Santana, Sandy Alomar, Freddy Garcia and the fiery heap that was once the Kei Igawa bandwagon

2008-05-12T04:03:11Z

My apologies for the delay this morning. Crazy technical difficulties.

Anyway, I've been to two of Johan Santana's starts this season, and in both, he labored like crazy against bad teams. On April 29, he threw 114 pitches to the Pirates and lasted just 5 2/3 innings, needing Pedro Feliciano to bail him out of trouble in the sixth. And on Saturday, the Mets' new ace fired 116 pitches for six innings in a victory over the Reds, and if he hadn't struck out Corey Patterson with Reds on first and third, he might have been lifted.

So I now admit: It is somewhat vexing that Santana isn't mowing through the NL with more ease. Yes, his overall numbers are just fine, and yes, we know he historically improves alongside the warm weather. But still. I'm surprised that Santana has needed to work so hard to not even get very deep into games.

Consider this: Santana has thrown 110 or more pitches in four of his eight starts this season. Last year, he reached that number in just six of his 33 starts. And it's not like Willie Randolph and Rick Peterson are pushing Santana late into games. They're just trying to get him to finish six innings.

What do you think, Mets fans? Something to shrug off, or not? I'm beginning to get a tad curious, myself.

If you watched Game 2 of Saturday's day-night Mets doubleheader, you could argue that the game's tenor changed in the bottom of the third inning. With a 1-1 tie, David Wright on first base and one out, a suddenly hot Carlos Beltran drilled a double into the right-centerfield gap. Wright is fast, of course, but legendary Reds rightfielder Ken Griffey, Jr. got to the ball quickly and got it back in quickly, and Wright was easily nailed at home plate in a 9-4-2 relay. So instead of Mets on second and third with one out, with the now-useful Carlos Delgado needing a fly ball to break the tie, they had Beltran on second with two outs. Delgado grounded out to shortstop, and the Mets didn't get another hit in the game.

It was, to use one of my favorite phrases, a "bad send" by Mets third-base coach Sandy Alomar, and it's not even close to the first time this year. With all of their other issues _ age, health and recent history, for starters _ the last thing the Mets need is a problem in the third-base coaching box. Alomar has got to pick up his game, and if he can't, the Mets should consider a change.

For my Sunday Insider, I wrote about Freddy Garcia, who will throw off a mound on Thursday for the first time since undergoing right shoulder surgery last August. As long as Garcia can prove he's healthy, he should set off a spirited battle for his services. I gave the Mets the upper hand to get him. They didn't go after Kyle Lohse in the spring because they decided they'd rather pocket their money, get an early read on the season and then be prepared to spend for more in July. Garcia's agents think he can join a big-league rotation right after the All-Star break.

By the way, add two more teams to my list of potential suitors: The White Sox and Rangers.

Well, I think it's about time for me to give up on Kei Igawa. I didn't see Friday's game, but the brutal numbers speak for themselves. My faith was based on the faith of people whose opinions I respect. The Padres claimed Igawa on waivers last year, and San Diego GM Kevin Towers routinely makes great pitching acquisitions. And the Red Sox have been hoping that the Yankees give up on Igawa, so that Boston can make an end-around effort to get him (obviously, the Yankees wouldn't give Igawa directly to the Red Sox). I will no longer challenge any of you who rip Brian Cashman for the $46 million fiasco that is Igawa. And Yankees fans should be thankful that yesterday's rainout in Detroit will likely push Igawa far away from a pitcher's mound. At this point, wouldn't starting Igawa be an insult to the other 24 players in uniform?

This news reminds me of this episode of "The Simpsons," and to the Dolans, I'd like to echo Kent Brockman's offer:

And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to
remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful
in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar
caves.

Thanks to this site, and this one, and this one, and this one for the help today.

Weekend predictions, and a rationalization

2008-05-09T04:03:19Z

1. The Yankees will drop two of three to the Tigers at Comerica Park, with Kei Igawa picking up the lone victory tonight in his 2008 major-league debut. On Saturday night, following the game, Jose Molina will recommend that a group of players go see "Iron Man," but Joba Chamberlain will shake off Molina three times and insist on seeing "Made of Honor." Bad things will ensue.

2. The Mets will take two of three from Cincinnati at Shea Stadium. The Reds Ken Griffey Jr. will hit his 598th career homer on Saturday, then pine for a return for Seattle in his post-game conference, then wonder on Sunday what all the fuss over his comments was about.

3. Alex Rodriguez, rehabilitating his strained right quad in Tampa, will drive by a hospital and instantly faint.

4. The highly disappointing Mariners will get swept by the White Sox, despite a total of 10 hits in three games by Miguel Cairo. Seattle will fire manager John McLaren and replace him with his predecessor Mike Hargrove, going with the philosophy that every good manager has a good nickname.

5. The rationalization comes after reading David Lennon's Mets Insider on Aaron Heilman: It's not good that Heilman has switched from the Mets' eighth-inning pitcher to their sixth-inning guy. But on the bright side, he's moving closer to his eventual goal of pitching in the first inning.

Happy Mother's Day to the all of the moms out there. Where would we be without you?

Derek Jeter has a terrible VORP

2008-05-08T12:53:45Z

M-Crash asked me this morning to check Derek Jeter's VORP, so I did. Here is his ranking among shortstops (13th overall). Here is his overall ranking (tied for 124th with J.D. Drew).

Of course, of course, it's still early, and Jeter historically hits better in the second half. He also missed a week with a quad injury. But still, are any of you alarmed by Jeter's lack of power? Wally Matthews discussed that with Jeter in his column today.

Here is the best explanation I've seen for how VORP is calculated. It's a particularly relevant stat given the Yankees' injuries. We're seeing how much their lineup is hurt by the absence of Alex Rodriguez (who led all of baseball last year with a 96.6 VORP) and Jorge Posada (who was eighth overall, and first among catchers, with a 73.4). VORP doesn't factor in defense _ for that, you need WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player _ but right now, offense is the Yankees' problem.

Omar Minaya likes to acquire players he knows well. He had Ryan Church and Brian Schneider in Montreal, and he traded for Orlando Hernandez in 2003, although, not shockingly, El Duque never pitched for the Expos due to injury. At the general managers' meetings last November, Minaya and his staff had dinner with the Indians' front office one night, and the Mets inquired about Cliff Lee, whom Minaya had included in a 2002 package for Bartolo Colon.

Lee was so bad last year that he didn't even make Cleveland's postsesaon roster. Yet the Indians declined to sell low, figuring that starting pitching depth would serve them well. That has worked out pretty well for them, as exemplified again last night.

Can you imagine if Lee had been pitching this well for the Mets? They'd be running away with the NL East.

But the Mets did have a big win yesterday, even with Lee in an Indians uniform. I'm going to keep saying this all year for the Mets: Their league stinks. Their biggest foe is themselves. I still think they can slog their way through the regular season and win it all.

Now, after all of the mudslinging in the Roger Clemens mess, here is a legitimate story on how Clemens' infidelities could hurt him. We all know how Barry Bonds' alleged indiscretions created trouble for him on the steroids front.

From Jason Giambi to Joba Chamberlain, in a blink

2008-05-07T06:00:21Z

At 7:43 last night, I commented here on the blog that I intended to do a column on Jason Giambi for today's Newsday. I figured it was time to check in on Giambi's horrid start to the 2008 season, and ponder whether the Yankees would actually consider releasing him.

When Giambi had a strong start to the game, beating out a double play in the first inning and ripping an opposite-field, RBI double in the fourth, I thought, "Perfect!" I began to put together a column reflecting my belief that, while Giambi has been anything but relentless when it comes to his work ethic, he is resilient. I was going to bet, and I'll do it now, that Giambi will indeed finish this 2008 season in a Yankees uniform, although I'll also bank on a visit to the disabled list.

Yet as I was finishing up this column, David Dellucci came up as a pinch hitter against Joba Chamberlain with two outs and two on in the eighth inning. And the next thing I knew, I was calling Newsday's king of the night, Jeff Weinberg, and informing him that I was going to have to write about Joba. When someone as popular and buzzworth as Chamberlain picks up the first regular-season blown save of his career, and allows his first ever runs at Yankee Stadium, that's not something to be ignored. Even if the game-turning homer takes place at 10:00 and you have to have the column in by 11:15.

Here is the column. The point I attempted to make was that, whether he winds up as a reliever or a starter _ and I think it's a no-brainer that he should be a starter _ Chamberlain has some growing up to do.

So that's a brief glimpse into the nature of my job. Next week, I'll explain to you how I choose my clothes.

Very impressive return to the minor leagues by Ian Kennedy.

Turned on the Mets game just after Blake DeWitt's inside-the-park homer. Man, the Mets sure looked at a lot of third strikes (four, out of their 12 strikeouts). They really don't send out a positive vibe, do they? Their saving grace, if they have one, will be the industry-wide parity.

Frankly, in inquiring about the lack of interest in free agents, the Players Association should ask more questions about Kenny Lofton than Barry Bonds. It's so ridiculously simple why Bonds is unemployed. Teams are reluctant to bring aboard an aging, selfish jerk who could face a federal trial at some point down the line. It is nothing of laughable for people to hint about collusion. Bonds colluded with his own demons to bring this fate upon himself.

Jim Baumbach and Anthony Rieber debate this issue on their Final Score blog. Anthony disagrees with me regarding active collusion. Here's my response to Anthony: 1) The teams didn't need to have any conversations with the commissioner's office on this. It goes without saying that Bud Selig doesn't want Bonds around. So I doubt there's a paper trail. 2) Even if there is a paper trail, I don't see how the Players Association gets ahold of it.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

The Astros had interest in signing Roger Clemens last winter, even after the Mitchell Report came out

2008-05-06T11:53:11Z

In the process of reporting this story in today's Newsday, Astros owner Drayton McLane told me that he and team president Tal Smith met with Roger Clemens and his agents, Alan and Randy Hendricks, last December, following the release of the Mitchell Report.

The issue about Clemens pitching in 2008 came up. "They were totally undecided," McLane said. "They said they'd let us know when they were ready to talk."

That meeting took place before Clemens' case snowballed into the monster it is now, of course. At that time, it seemed feasible that Clemens could make a go at another half-season, especially back in the National League, after his 2007 with the Yankees left some people disappointed. And hey, there are Mitchell Report perpetrators all over the major leagues. The Astros shortstop, Miguel Tejada, is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice for perjury, just like Clemens.

Now, however, you can probably bet against such a comeback. A person close to Clemens told me that a fifth "unretirement" seems very unlikely, since Clemens is battling multiple battles with the DOJ investigation, the defamation lawsuit against Brian McNamee and the reports dealing with his infidelitities.

Gotta run right now. I'll try to check in later with more...

UPDATE, 12:54 p.m.: Very sorry about that. I intended to start this blog last night, after the Mets game, but I fell asleep around the fifth inning. So I didn't have enough time this morning, and I had to take my son to school and run a few errands...yada yada yada. Here I am.

Back to Clemens, it sounds like it's for the best that he's retiring. The Yankees can't take him back, not after they were hurt more than anyone else by the Mitchell Report, and not with Andy Pettitte in their clubhouse. As for the Astros, McLane wouldn't rule out bringing back Clemens, but it sounded like a longshot.

"I think a lot needs to develop, in my opinion," McLane said. "I think there's got to be a lot of questions answered."

When asked, in a follow-up e-mail, what those questions would be, McLane responded, "1) Does Roger want to pitch again; 2) What will result from the congressional investigation; 3) What are the Houston Astros’ needs, etc."

The answer to number 1 appears to be "No." Number 2 could take years to answer. As for number 3, the Astros would certainly be a better team with Clemens taking the ball every fifth day. But it appears to be a moot issue.

I was chatting with one of Newsday's copy editors, Greg Gutes, yesterday, and we were wondering how much better off Clemens would've been if, the day the Mitchell Report was released, he put out a statement confirming the illegal PED usage, with something like, "As a competitor, I couldn't handle not being the best anymore, so I bought into the culture at the time. I wish I could do it all over again."

Greg thinks that Clemens would be in dramatically better shape. I think that he would still be in pretty bad shape. Obviously, Clemens' family wouldn't have been dragged into this, but his Hall of Fame candidacy, and his status as one of the best pitchers of all-time, would be shattered nonetheless. Thoughts?

When I watch Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson shake his head after Oliver Perez does something stupid, which is pretty frequent, I think of this episode of "The Simpsons," when the federal agent tries, repeatedly, to explain to Homer that his new name will be "Mr. Thompson."

Agent: Tell you what, sir. From now on, you'll be, uh, Homer Thompson
at Terror Lake. Let's just practice a bit, hmm? When I say,
"Hello, Mr. Thompson," you'll say, "Hi."
Homer: Check.
Agent: Hello, Mr. Thompson.
Homer: [stares blankly]
Agent: Remember now, your name is Homer Thompson.
Homer: I gotcha.
Agent: Hello, Mr. Thompson.
Homer: [stares blankly]
[A long time later]
Agent: [sighs in frustration] Now, when I say, "Hello, Mr. Thompson,"
and press down on your foot, you smile and nod.
Homer: No problem.
Agent: Hello, Mr. Thompson! [stomps on Homer's foot a few times]
Homer: [stares blankly]
[to other agent] I think he's talking to _you_.

Any team that signs Perez to a long-term contract this winter is out of its mind.

On the bright side, Mets fans, is that Carlos Delgado really appears to be waking up. Right now, if faced with this debate, I'd have to say that, right now, Jason Giambi is hurting the Yankees more than Delgado is hurting the Mets.

That was the first time I had seen Chad Billingsley pitch. Impressive. Joe Torre has a pretty talented team out there. I'm feeling all right about my "Dodgers NL wild-card" prediction.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

It's a No-Complaint Monday

2008-05-05T04:22:18Z

There's a doorman at my apartment building who loves to vent about the Mets. Loves to rip Willie Randolph, and Aaron Heilman and both of the Carloses, and Billy Wagner, too.

But there are times when the Mets are playing well, and I put my hand up and declare a moratorium on Mets complaints for the day.

So in that spirit, with both the Mets and Yankees coming off strong weekends, I'm declaring it a No-Complaint Monday.

(Disclaimer: Of course, this is all just for show. Of course I want you to complain, if that's how you're feeling. What, I'm really gonna encourage people not to post comments? I'm just trying to make the point that the New York teams both registered good weekends. I'd do anything for comments, just like Sonny would do anything for Cocoa Puffs).

The Yankees finished off a sweep of the Mariners yesterday. Here is the column I wrote off of the game. I found it interesting that, on the day the Yankees demoted Ian Kennedy to Triple-A Scranton, another homegrown product whom we once all wrote off, Melky Cabrera, further asserted himself as an offensive force.

Darrell Rasner, yesterday, proved the perfect antidote to the demoted Ian Kennedy and injured Phil Hughes: He threw strikes. Mike Mussina, meanwhile, continues to display signs that he's not quite dead yet.

The offense, despite the continued absences of Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez and the continued incompetence of Robinson Cano and Jason Giambi, has woken up some. You can thank the quintet of Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui for that.

Now, with all of this kept in mind, I wouldn't throw too big a party if you're a Yankees fan, as the Mariners looked awful. I can't believe some people picked Seattle to win the AL West. The Mariners just don't seem to get the most out of what is now an above-average pitching staff. I knew their offense would be no better than average _ and it hasn't been even that good _ but I didn't anticipate the lousy defense, to boot. They played like they didn't care.

As for the Mets, there are no qualifiers necessary. They went into the home of the best team in baseball, a team that hadn't so much as lost a home series this year, and they won two out of three.

I listened to yesterday's crucial top of the ninth on WFAN, as I drove from the Bronx to Manhattan, and it sounds like they caught a big break. But hey, good teams capitalize on their opponents' mistakes, and that's what the Mets did. That top of the ninth was a thing of beauty. The first two outs advanced runners, and Marlon Anderson's pinch-hit single was the kind of knock that could spark a winning streak.

I want to see this Ryan Church throw in the eighth inning, meanwhile. Like everyone else on the planet who doesn't draw a paycheck from the Mets, I ripped the Lastings Milledge-for-Church and Brian Schneider trade, but so far, it looks pretty smart. Look at Milledge's pedestrian numbers in Washington.

Now, let's see where this goes with Willie Randolph and his Teases. Joe Torre's Dodgers are tough, and Oliver Perez goes tonight in trying to wipe out his awful last start that drew Wagner's wrath.

Elsewhere, around the league, looks like the Blue Jays are waking up some. Don't count them out yet!

The Astros, meanwhile, completed a remarkable sweep of the Brewers. At 16-16, they're making this blog's Donut Bet (scroll down) more interesting.

A non-sports (pretty much) book recommendation: Patrick O'Keefe, who runs YanksBlog as well as many other blogs, has a book out entitled, "Managing Online Forums: Everything You Need to Know to Create and Run Successful Community Discussion Boards." I found it helpful, and if you know someone who runs a blog, or if you have interest in doing so, you should check it out. Here is the site for it.

Thanks to this site for the cartoon.

Weekend predictions, and a correction

2008-05-02T04:01:48Z

1. The Yankees' struggles will continue when they get swept by the Mariners at home. Even worse, they'll begin to feel cursed when Yankee emertius Mickey Rivers, while pulling the "Regular Season Countdown" lever after the fifth inning, suffers a Grade 2 strain of his right quad and a stress fracture of a rib on his right side. Joe Girardi will exacerbate his problems with the the media (scroll down) when he says, testily, "There's nothing wrong with Mick. He's still quick."

2. The Mets will rebound from Wednesday's abomination by sweeping the Diamondbacks in Arizona. But when the team arrives in Los Angeles Sunday night for its next stop, and Billy Wagner gets a hotel room close to the noisy elevator, the Mets' closer will blame Oliver Perez.

3. Carlos Delgado will see this play Saturday night in Phoenix, and he'll grow enraged when the actors decline to come out for a curtain call.

4. The beleaguered Roger Clemens, a longtime friend of George H.W. Bush, will find sympathy from the other side of the political aisle. Hint: It's someone who will feel his pain.

5. And now, the correction. I have been communicating with Gary Mintz of South Huntington for probably about three years now. Gary is a huge Giants fan, and he is involved with the New York Giants Baseball Nostalgia Society. In my Midweek Insider on Wednesday, I improperly connected some dots, and I concluded that Gary rooted for the Giants back in their Polo Grounds days.

Gary politely notified me this week that he's 47; he roots for the Giants in honor of his late dad, Louis. So Gary doesn't remember the 1962 World Series, let alone the days in Harlem.

My apologies to Gary.

Not much to say about the Yankees right now, except that they stink. I attended last night's debacle. Here is my column, which sticks to a theme that I have offered regularly, here, on the blog.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Congratulations, we've made it past "Small Sample Size" month

2008-05-01T12:53:16Z

Happy May Day. No longer can we dismiss the results of our favorite sport with the "It's only April" tag.

Just for the heck of it, let's look at where baseball stood at this very moment last year, to get a feel for what we can expect in terms of the trend/aberration percentage.

Thanks to Retrosheet (link on left), we see that these were the division leaders at the end of play on April 30, 2007:

NL East: Atlanta 16-9
NL Central: Milwaukee 16-9
NL West: Arizona 16-11
NL wild card: Mets 15-9

AL East: Boston 16-8
AL Central: Cleveland 14-8
AL West: Angels 15-11
AL wild card: Detroit and Minnesota, 14-11

So that's four of six division leaders (all three AL clubs and Arizona) that proceeded to win their divisions. Although, it should be noted, the Indians and Diamondbacks fell out of their division penthouses for extended periods before regaining their respective leads. The Phillies, whom, you might have heard, won the NL East last year, were 11-14. The Cubs, who overcame the Brewers, were 10-14.

None of the three wild cards went onto the playoffs, and the two teams that did wind up capturing the wild cards, the Rockies (10-16) and Yankees (9-14), both had losing records.

For the individual stat leaders, I called the Elias Sports Bureau, which was kind enough to provide this info. I am violating my own rules by posting traditional stats here.

Joe Mauer was the AL batting leader at .369. He finished at .293. Magglio Ordonez (.344 on April 30 - thanks to baseball-reference.com) won it with a .363.

Alex Rodriguez led the AL with 14 homers and 34 RBI, and he finished with league-leading totals of 54 and 156, respectively.

Dan Haren led the AL with a 1.60 ERA. He finished with a 3.07, third in the league behind John Lackey's 3.01 and Fausto Carmona's 3.06. Lackey had a 2.19 on April 30.

Josh Beckett led the AL with five wins, and he went onto record a league-high 20 wins.

In the NL, Derek Lee was hitting a sparkling .392. He wound up at .317. Matt Holliday (.385 on April 30) led the league at .340.

Jimmy Rollins had an NL-high nine homers, and while Mr. Team to Beat won the NL MVP award, he finished with 20 homers. Prince Fielder (six homers on April 30) topped the NL with 50.

Jeff Francoeur and Adrian Gonzalez were tied for the NL RBI lead with 25. Neither finished among the top 10, as Francoeur tallied 105 and Gonzalez 100. Holliday (19 RBI on April 30) led the NL with 137.

John Maine had the NL's best ERA, a sparkling 1.35. He finished at 3.91, well behind Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy (2.06 in April) at 2.54.

Finally, Dontrelle Willis, of all people, had a league-leading five victories last April. He picked up just five more for the season, while Peavy (three April wins) won 19 games.

Any predictions on which teams and players can keep this up, and which can't?

Good rips, Billy Wagner. The Mets might really test the "Chemistry vs. Talent" theory this year. They don't seem particularly focused way too often, yet is the NL so awful that they'll make the playoffs regardless? After all, a 14-12 record puts them on track for an 87-75 record. That might be good enough.

I admit, it offends me when the people we speak with aren't honest, as clearly was the case last night with Joe Girardi and Phil Hughes' injury. Does it offend you, as fans? I won't be offended if you're not offended.

UPDATE/CLARIFICATION: I want to make clear that I wasn't accusing the Yankees of fabricating Hughes' injury, which is obviously not the case. Instead, I was attempting (and failing, based on the interpretation of baileywalk and some non-commenters) to criticize the Yankees for their handling of the situation. They should've said before yesterday's game that Hughes was seeing a doctor for his rib.

Just finished watching "John Adams" last night. That was awesome. I highly recommend it if you haven't seen it. And this can get into a baseball blog, because Paul Giamatti, the man who plays Adams brilliantly, is the son of the late, former baseball commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti.

Thanks to this site for the photo. Hey, Ray Parker Jr., it's your 54th birthday. Who ya gonna call?

It will take years to fully evaluate the Johan Santana-Phil Hughes debate

2008-04-30T04:02:29Z

What a perfect juxtaposition last night, with Johan Santana and Phil Hughes pitching about 10 miles apart from one another.

Santana pitched adequately in picking up a no-decision against the Pirates, in a game the Mets won, 5-4, in 11 innings. I attended this game, and Santana worked hard, throwing 114 pitches over a season-low 5 2/3 innings. He mentioned the cold weather as a deterrent. He also mentioned that the Mets' scouting report indicated that Nate McLouth, who homered in the first, was supposed to take a few pitches, and that he got a few bad calls on the at-bat that produced Jason Bay's fifth-inning homer.

Over in the Bronx, meanwhile, Phil Hughes pitched horribly in losing to the Tigers, and from reading colleague Anthony Rieber's story, it sounds like Hughes' next start could be for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barres.

Does this mean that Yankees GM Brian Cashman goofed, when he passed up the opportunity to deal Hughes for Santana? In my humble opinion, it is way too early to make such a judgment.

It's hardly a shocker that Santana is posting a vastly superior 2008 to Hughes. Cashman's commitment to Hughes, Ian Kennedy and the rest of the organization's youngsters is about anything but 2008. It's about the hope of building the proverbial "player development machine," so that they don't have to overspend on the free-agent market to fill needs. The possibility that Hughes and Kennedy would need minor-league time was part of that commitment. If the Yankees don't make the playoffs in 2008, so be it. Cashman will sleep well, even if the decision costs him his job.

As stated here back when the Mets made the Santana trade, Omar Minaya performed an excellent job in waiting for the Twins to settle for what still looks like an uninspiring package of players. Have you seen Carlos Gomez's numbers? Yeesh. As you can see here, Kevin Mulvey is pitching decently for Triple-A Rochester, while Phil Humber is not. Deolis Guerra is pitching all right at Class A Fort Myers.

But you can bet that Minaya, who is set to ignore baseball's slotting system for the amateur draft after adhering to it the last couple of years, wants to build his organization to a point where it doesn't have to invest nine figures in a pitcher from another team in order to pick up an ace.

I think that the Santana trade will allow the Mets to close Shea Stadium with their first World Series title since 1986. Yet that high will last for only so long. In 2005, Red Sox fans, fresh off the first title in almost all of their lifetimes, resorting to booing 2004 heroes like Keith Foulke and Kevin Millar. Now the Red Sox, thanks to a strong farm system, are set to make a strong run every year, thanks to their commitment to player development, which includes patience. Last year, Dustin Pedroia hit .182 in April. The Sox stuck with him, and he proceeded to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

If Hughes ultimately bombs, then sure, you can fault Cashman for not dealing him. But we need much more time here. If Hughes re-discovers himself in the minors, comes back and pitches like the guy who beat the Indians last October, then all will be well. And let's make sure that Santana justifies the Mets' long-term investment in him, beyond just this year and even next year and 2010.

So the Yankees spent $52 million last offseason on Jorge Posada, and he's hurt, and $275 million on Alex Rodriguez, and he's hurt, too. At least Mariano Rivera ($45 million) hasn't made it a trifecta. Now the Yankees are without their two best offensive players from last year. At least their pitchers...ooh, never mind.

Yankees fans, if you buy into the notion that it's all right to miss the playoffs once in a great while, like the defending champion Red Sox did in 2006, then you'll make it through this season.

Going back to yesterday's Roger Clemens issue, here is some intelligent analysis explaining the unlikely potential of The Rocket's infidelitiy ever becoming an actual, legal issue.

Why the disclosure of Roger Clemens' infidelity could actually help him

2008-04-29T12:29:34Z

You could argue that the true turning point in the Roger Clemens saga was not December 13, 2007, the day Major League Baseball released the Mitchell Report, but January 7, 2008, the day that Clemens' attorney Rusty Hardin decided it would be a good idea to publicly air a taped phone conversation between Clemens and Brian McNamee, which included information about McNamee's sick son.

Not only did the tape fail to vindicate Clemens, but it turned McNamee from The Rocket's conflicted whistle-blower to his mortal enemy. McNamee knew so much about Clemens that he didn't disclose to Mitchell, and that information has trickled out for months, slowly, painfully.

Now, I don't know who leaked this latest story about Clemens' extra-curricular activities, but let's face reality. Who benefits from this? McNamee and his attorneys, and the singer, herself, who is now, (not) shockingly, confirming the report. After all, I had never heard of this singer before, and I've spent two weeks of my life in Nashville.

I agree with what Wally Matthews wrote in his column today, and I'll take it a step further: Not only is this irrelevant, but if McNamee's lawyers actually called this woman to the stand in Clemens' defamation case against McNamee, it would backfire.

History has proven that people don't like going into other people's bedrooms. Look at how Bill Clinton ended up benefiting from the Republicans' dogged pursuit of the Monica Lewinsky stuff. If this Clemens case actually goes to trial, and either Clemens or McNamee requests a jury, I think a jury would feel reviled by this information. The jurors would get upset not with Clemens, but with McNamee's lawyers, for trying to tie this into Clemens' credibility.

I feel no sympathy for Clemens. He opened this door when he released that tape. But my hunch is that McNamee's attorneys are too smart to introduce this information to a jury. They'll be content with the short-term public humiliation that Clemens and his family might feel right now. This will prove to be not a news story, only a gossip item.

Welcome back home, Yankees fans. They did a nice job going 10-10 on their stretch of 18 road games and two home games. To reiterate, it's not shocking that the young pitchers have been inconsistent and that the veteran players are banged up. I think 90 wins and third place still sounds right.

Did anyone see the play in the bottom of the fifth when Jose Molina had Casey Blake picked off first base? Molina, who has a great arm, totally had Blake nailed. But Jason Giambi looked like Maury Chaykin (perhaps you know him as Harvey, the crazy producer from "Entourage") as he caught the ball, sloooowly wheeled around and tried to tag Blake, who had enough time to return to the bag and, if he had so desired, whip up a snack.

I understand that the Yankees like playing Giambi at first base so that they don't have to bench Hideki Matsui more often. But I don't agree with it. Giambi is an immense defensive liability.

How about Barry Zito getting demoted? Yeesh. I was among those who thought the Mets should have tried harder to get Zito, back in the 2006-07 offseason. Clearly, the Mets are far better off having countered such counsel.

Thanks to the IMDb for the photo.

Jorge Posada, Carlos Delgado, Bobby Valentine and the continuing chronicles of Joba Chamberlain

2008-04-28T04:49:48Z

Flew back from Miami yesterday afternoon, and I'm looking forward to getting back into the groove of the season. The standings this morning are very funny. Love that Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Florida are all playoff contenders. Extremely confident that none of that quartet will make the playoffs.

Let's catch up quickly:

I've referred repeatedly to an event I attended in January, featuring Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein answering questions from fans at William Paterson University. Most notably, Cashman declared that he wouldn't trade Phil Hughes for Johan Santana, which generated a huge ovation.

But today, I'd like to refer to Epstein's most honest sentiment of the night. At one point, Epstein _ who was far more careful than his Yankees counterpart _ opined that the catching situation throughout baseball was awful (I can't remember if "awful" was exactly the word he used, but it was in that neighborhood).

Which brings us around to Jorge Posada's first career trip to the disabled list. It's a terrible development for the Yankees, unquestionably, as it looks like Posada could easily miss an extensive period of time (if not the rest of the season). But I'm not sure what the Yankees could have done to avoid this. I still think that re-signing Posada to that 4-year, $52-million deal last November was the right call, because the alternatives (Yorvit Torrealba? Michael Barrett?) were terrible.

Look at Epstein: He let Pedro Martinez (after 2004) and Johnny Damon (after 2005) walk as free agents, yet he retained his catcher, Jason Varitek, after 2004. And Varitek isn't as good as Posada.

In Jose Molina, the Yankees have one of the game's best backups. And yet, Molina represents a significant downgrade from Posada, and as Molina showed earlier this month, he's going to wear down quickly if he plays too often.

Were any of you at yesterday's Mets game? I'm intrigued by Carlos Delgado turning down the curtain call. He should've sucked it up and saluted the fans. That said, I like Delgado's independence. We're talking about a guy, after all, who's not afraid to take controversial stances.

More significant for Mets fans, has Delgado finally awoken from his endless slumber? Or was yesterday just a dead cat bounce? I'd bet on the latter. I'm going to need more evidence before buying Delgado futures.

Saw "The Zen of Bobby V," an ESPN documentary, last night at the Tribeca Film Festival. Three NYU film students spent the 2007 season around Bobby Valentine and his Chiba Lotte Marines. Not surprisingly, the tireless Valentine provided more than enough material. It's worth seeing. It's airing on ESPN2 on May 13.

It's amazing that this marks the sixth season since the Mets fired Bobby V. He deserves another chance at managing a big-league team. Yes, he'd probably make some more enemies, but the guy brings so much to the party. If you look back at those 2000 Mets, that team had no right to make the World Series. Bobby always gets a great deal out of his teams (until, like pretty much all managers, he doesn't, anymore).

Viewer mail, so to speak: Jim, Ron Guidry was obviously a great Yankees pitcher, but the last couple of years, he essentially took pride in a) his refusal to break down a pitcher's mechanics; and b) his ignorance about computers. It was ridiculous for a 2006-07 baseball team to employ a pitching coach with such an antiquated belief system. I think you'll find that, by season's end, Dave Eiland will have made an impact on the Yankees' pitching staff.

Dennis, you asked who whould set up for Mariano Rivera, if Joba Chamberlain should graduate to the starting rotation. If I ran the Yankees, I would've made it clear at the outset of spring training that Joba would be a starter, and to have an open audition featuring every live arm in the organization, from Farnsworth to Hawkins to Ohlendorf to Britton to Bruney to Igawa and so on. Strong relief pitchers emerge from nowhere every year in baseball _ just last year, you had Heath Bell, Manny Corpas and Hideki Okajima greatly exceeding expectations _ and then they often fade away just as quickly. But ace pitchers are much more difficult to find and cultivate.

Good Lord, I'm turning into Neil Best

2008-04-25T03:20:56Z

I promised myself, when the blog craze worked its way down the food chain to me, that I would never blog while on vacation. Yet I'm in my hotel room, the rest of the family is asleep, I'm not tired and I'm trying to stay up to see what happens in this Yankees game. As I type, it's White Sox 6, Yankees 5, top 6th. Tough break for Phil Hughes. Why didn't Joe Girardi start a reliever?

Anyway, here I am, breaking my self-imposed embargo, following the tradition of the vacation-ignoring Watchdog. Figured I'd check in to see what was on your minds.

I've been following the scores and basic news on my Blackberry and complimenary copy of USA Today. I watched the last inning and a half of last night's Yankees-White Sox game, since it was on ESPN, but that's been it for me since the game when Kyle Farnsworth earned his suspension.

So, some quick thoughts:

Regarding Hank Steinbrenner's outburst, I won't believe that Hank will follow his dad's lead and actually dictate on-field policy until I see it. Nevertheless, Hank's diatribe impacted Brian Cashman's day, as the Yanks' GM had to do damage control with the myriad media that cover the team. I think that if Hank continues to spout off, Cashman will leave the Yankees when his contract runs out after the season. Then again, I thought that Cashman would leave three years ago.

Regarding the Mets, my parting image from leaving New York on Tuesday was my apartment building doorman, Paul, screaming, "They've got to get rid of Heilman!" That might be a little harsh, but clearly, the Mets should give Aaron Heilman a little breather, let him work out his issues in situations that aren't so high-leverage.

Regarding the Dodgers, which Jim mentioned late in the last post, Joe Torre has a serious problem with Andruw Jones. I can't believe how poorly Jones has played. The Dodgers have a very interesting team, replete with pitching depth and young, talented position players, but Jones is just dragging them down at the moment. Look, as much as people hate Torre, this is his specialty: Helping teams stay afloat, spiritually, during rough starts (for which he absolutely deserves blame).

Relaxation and family time haven't altered my stances on any of the key issues: Still think that the Yankees should start Joba, still think that the Yankees made the right call in not trading for Johan Santana, still think the Dodgers will win the NL wild card, still think that Santana will lead the Mets to a World Series victory over the Blue Jays. Remember, it's only April. There is so, so much more baseball to be played. It's way too early to abandon any of your preseason opinions/predictions.

Okay, 6-6 now in the bottom of the 7th, but I'm not going to make it until the end. My son gets up between 6:30 and 7 every morning, and I've got a tennis clinic at 9. I need my rest, despite the fact that my hall voted me as the "Person Who Never Sleeps" in my freshman year of college. Hope you all are well. See you Monday (or maybe sooner).

Weekend predictions, and a question

2008-04-18T04:06:55Z

1. The Mets will take two of three over the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Jose Reyes, liberated to act like his old self again, will hit three triples, steal five bases and instigate a brawl with Miguel Olivo.

2. The Yankees will win two of three against the Orioles in Baltimore, even though Joe Girardi, scarred by his Manny Ramirez experiences, will overcompensate by intentionally walking Jay Payton with a base open.

3. After Yankees fans object to LaTroy Hawkins wearing Roger Clemens' uniform number 22, Hawkins will encounter similar grief for trying 17 ("How dare you do that to Mickey Rivers!?"), 29 ("We love Mike Stanton!"), 36 ("Does Mike Myers mean nothing to you?!") and 38 ("Chase Wright is The Man!") before settling on 41. "That's OK," the fans will say, "we hated Randy Johnson."

4. David Ortiz will finally figure out why he's in such a slump, as the Red Sox will confess that they've secretly replaced his usual coffee with Folger's Crystals.

5. OK, now here's your question, substituting for a fifth prediction: Do any of you care about the length of the Yankees-Red Sox games? People in the media enjoy complaining about it, and look, full disclosure, a tidy, 2-hour, 45-minute game makes my life easier. But I don't mind the 4-hour games terribly. What do you, the customers, think?

No home games in New York for most of the next week, and with my son having the week off for Passover, I'm outta here, headed to a super-secret location with the family. Have a great week. See you on Monday, April 28.

Thanks to the IMDb for the photo.

Let's catch up on that new drug agreement from last week

2008-04-17T04:20:10Z

This got lost in the blog cracks, as Major League Baseball and the Players Association released the tweaks to their drug-testing program on Friday afternoon. By the time Monday morning rolled around, we were all thinking about how the Yankees and Mets were in major trouble.

But upon having a few moments to reflect yesterday and re-read the press release, I thought it was important to discuss how the agreement corrects some of the missteps that our pal George Mitchell made in his infamous report.

First of all, the wording in the press release is vague enough that, when I wrote this story for Newsday last week, I inferred that named players would have to perform community service in return for amnesty for Bud Selig. In other words, "If you don't do this, you're going to be in trouble."

That is not accurate. While no one (including Jay Gibbons and Jose Guillen, pictured, who had received 15-game suspensions and now are free) will be penalized, it's not like you'll see Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens co-starting in a public service announcement about steroids. The union promised only that "some" players named by Mitchell will participate. You can count on those who have publicly apologized, like Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts, to be a part of that campaign. This allowed Bud Selig to save some face, in that he could say that he imposed "some" form of discipline on the players named by Mitchell.

Most interesting, to me, is provision 9 of the agreement:

In future investigations, allegations of player misconduct will not be disclosed publicly by the Commissioner's Office unless discipline is imposed. A description of the evidence and allegations against a player being investigated will be provided to him before any investigatory interview.

This is very much of an indictment of Mitchell's methodology. It was an abomination that Mitchell wouldn't tell the players what he had on them unless they ageed to meet with him _ and then went ahead and publicized what he learned, even if the allegations didn't violate the collective bargaining agreement. Now, that won't happen again.

Let's hope that history frowns upon Mitchell's conduct. Certainly, this concession by MLB doesn't reflect well on Mr. Impeccable. Not that Congress would ever challenge one of their former fraternity brothers.

By the way, did you know that Mitchell has done lobbying for a tobacco company? I wish I had learned that while the investigation was still ongoing.

You know what else makes me ill, besides George Mitchell? The way Yankees fans treated LaTroy Hawkins for choosing uniform number 21. Hawkins is a good guy who wanted to honor Roberto Clemente by wearing 21. That fans booed him during his Opening Night introduction, and then reportedly chanted Paul O'Neill's name when Hawkins pitched poorly, is highly unfortunate. We've discussed passion for numbers and the players attached with them before, but this went too far, IMHO. Did any of you feel so strongly about Hawkins choosing 21?

JRock was among those, like me, who saw the Yankees offense come to life against the Sawx. It proved a good night for both the Yankees and the Mets. How about Jose Reyes? As he goes, it seems, so go the Mets.

You can't hide from 162 games, lesson 48,368: Remember how the Tigers stunk? Now, they're tied with the Indians in the AL Central. Granted, it's for fourth place, not first, but it's hard to envision the White Sox, Twins or Royals running away with the division. And C.C. Sabathia's kickoff to the season is remarkable.You can hear the dollars slipping away with each bad start.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Brush with greatness

2008-04-16T05:08:29Z

I didn't write about yesterday's unveiling of the Jackie Robinson Rotunda at Citi Field for Newsday. Jim Baumbach took care of that for us, and wrote a fine story. But I did get re-introduced to Mrs. Robinson, and during last night's Mets game, I spent a few minutes in the Robinson family's luxury box. Sharon Robinson, Jackie and Rachel's daughter, also attended.

From watching Mrs. Robinson operate _ participating in the pre-game ceremony, going on the Mets' SNY broadcast, entertaining guests in the box _ you'd guess that she was closer to 65 than her actual 85. Her energy level is remarkable. In the fifth inning, as people prepared to leave and bid her a good night, she asked, out of concern, "How are you getting home?"

The nature of my job calls for me to interview famous, accomplished people and not be fazed by the assignment. But meeting with Mrs. Robinson (this photo, with Mike Cameron, is from a few years ago) carries a different sensation. How can you not be blown away what she and Jackie endured? And then, to think that Rachel Robinson has dedicated her last 35-plus years, since Jackie's passing, to a foundation in Jackie's name. They send minority students to college, a most simple, elegant mission dedicated to giving more opportunities to more youngsters.

Since September 11, 2001, I have been very cognizant of using the word "hero" in writing about sports. But Mrs. Robinson is a true hero, in my mind. For serving as her husband's partner as he tried to change the world, and for guiding the Foundation to help so many young scholars.

The people we discuss day-to-day on this blog, from Bud Selig to George "Mr. Impeccable" Mitchell to Don Fehr to the owners, general managers, managers and players, let us down so very often. So consider April 15 baseball's annual Thanksgiving. We get to thank Mrs. Robinson for all that she and Jackie have done, and all that they continue to do.

Mrs. Robinson expressed her disappointment in the report that African-Americans constitute just 8.2 percent of big-league ballplayers. I'm not going to get on any high horse and offer out-of-my-posterior analysis, because this is a highly complex issue that you can approach from many angles. I'll just say that baseball, just like any industry, benefits greatly from diversity.

Mets fans, that might have been the best night of the season so far. Pick your hero: Mike Pelfrey, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Duaner Sanchez. True, the Nationals are no world-beaters, but the Mets should nevertheless build off a positive result.

One year ago today, this blog was born. While we're not exactly in Watchdog territory when it comes to page views, I'd like to think that we've developed a nice, little community here. Thank you so much to those of you who are kind enough to check in regularly, and especially to those of you who enjoy dropping a comment to initiate discussion. In an effort to modernize the blog, I have added a number of my favorite Web sites to the blogroll.