Some facts from a research done by Thomas Lechler, PhD:

• 60% of the successful projects did NOT meet all or some of the triple constraints (time, scope and budget).

• 15% of projects that met the triple constraints failed. That brings us to the question: When can we speak about project success? It is only successful if the project returns a positive ROI (return on investment)

Good points, but I do question myself when hearing something like this that if 15% of the projects fail, does that mean that those projects where not well defined in the beginning? Where they properly analysed? Was the reason of initiating the project well grounded?

Well it can actually all be explained by the management of uncertainty and risk. If you would like to have, at the end of your project, a black car(differently told in the presentation) to be produced. The risk would be that it could or could not be created because of a number of reasons. The uncertainty however, is when the black car could not be created for a reason that could never been known in advance (for example, that black paint is forbidden by the government). Basically it means that things that are not thought about or couldn’t be foreseen or imagined because of not owning the knowledge are called uncertainty.

It comes down to the fact that, if you manage the project without redefining the project and sticking to the 3 constraints, it is possible that you will never be able to change the result (in the example above, creating a black car). Sometimes it might be needed to exceed one or more of the constraints in order to overcome the change that has appeared and make the project a success (in the example above, changing the color to grey as it is more profitable).

The outcome is that risks can be managed very well and we have good knowledge and methods to do so, but we do not at all understand the management of uncertainty.

The question is, how can you do it? What are the tools available to manage this uncertainty and as there are no tools at all to do this, it appears that the only way to start managing it, is by having a different mindset.

Copyright Dilbert

From the Prince2 course I’ve learned that Risk can be split up into Threats and Opportunities, but I have never thought of it as Mr Lechler did. He tells us:

There is only an opportunity when there is uncertainty; otherwise, there is no opportunity.

Project uncertainty can only be managed by seeking and exploiting project value opportunities. In other words: Constant Risk management with a very open mindset, so that he can exploit all opportunities and get the highest possible project value.

Overview of Risk Perspective vs. Uncertainty perspective over different topics.

So in order to embrace the changes and bring a project to a real success, not only meeting the triple constraint: scope, time and budget, we need to have an open mindset and always look for opportunities in the uncertainty.

Feel free to comment and share.

Reference:
Thomas Lechler, PhD, The Howe School at Stevens Institute of Technology talks on overcoming the Mental Barriers of the Triple Constraint and how PMBOK standards address risk but the uncertainty can have very positive influences on a project. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz4WkmZ0o5w

I saw a movie today by ESI International on the top 10 trends in Project Management. It’s an interesting movie, but what I found extra interesting to see is that Agile is predicted to blend with the waterfall approach.

In the same top 10 of 2011, we don’t get that trend but we are slightly warned about the complexity of Agile and how the organisation can have difficulties implementing it.

This year in 2012 , we get more of a message that Agile will blend with Waterfall again. Although not every organisation will be able to adapt to Agile, I think still tons of them can do it. For some of the organisations, picking the best of both worlds might be the best solution, but for others I think it is just a quick way out.

See what Project Management trends ESI International expects to pick up momentum in 2012. LeRoy Ward points out how an emphasis on collaboration, on-the-job training, customized project approaches, new project tools and smarter resource management will give you an advantage this year and in the future.

The complete top 10 for 2012 is:

1.      Programme management will gain momentum, but resources remain in short supply

2.     Collaboration software solutions will become  an essential business tool for project teams

3.     Learning transfer will become the new mantra, but with little structured application

4.     Agile blends with waterfall for a new “hybrid” approach

5.     Smarter project investments will require a stronger marriage between project management and business process management (BPM)

6.     Internal certifications in corporations and federal agencies will eclipse the PMP®

7.     More PMO heads will measure effectiveness on business results

8.     Good project managers will buck unemployment trends

9.     Client-centric project management will outpace the “triple constraint”

10.     HR professionals will seek assessments to identify high-potential project managers

More info can be found on the website of ESI

I’m very pleased to announce that ‘Die Keure’ – Business and Economics will publish my book in the coming months.

‘Die Keure’ is located in Brugge (Belgium) and will in the next 12 weeks (summer 2012) publish my book on project leadership.

Some facts about the book:

• It will contain approximately 140 pages
• It is written in Dutch
• It touches topics like: PRINCE2, Agile, Scrum, Kanban Version Control, Kiss and Dry principle, Certification etc.

 Other bestsellers that this publisher has produced on ICT and management related matter are:

More info will follow soon…

IPMA-be is a nonprofit organization that unites project-, program-, portfolio managers and PMO managers and officers.

Proudly, we invite you, your management  and your project related employees (project-, program-, portfolio managers and PMO managers and officers) to witness the birth of the International Project Management Association, Belgium (IPMA-be) of which you can find the birth card here.

IPMA-be is a nonprofit organization that considers it as its main mission to help organizations and their project related employees in their endeavor to improve their professionalism.

Join us in this event were you’ll be informed about the values of IPMA-be and its added value to you, your organization and project related employees.

Venue and place

The event will take place on January 30th in Evere at 17.00h.

Venue: 5^th floor, Jules Bordetlaan 160, Evere, Belgium

More information and registration at www.ipma-be.be

Program:
17.00 – 18.00 Reception
18.00 – 18.10 Introduction (IPMA-be)
18.10 – 18.25  IPMA Objectives (IPMA EU-Task force)
18.25 – 19.45  Real life stories from the field (different Organisations)
19.45 – 20.00 What does IPMA mean for you, as PM, as Organisation (IPMA-be)
20.00 – …       Wine and dine

Everybody has a bucket list, a list of all things you want to do before you die, and so do I.

A few of the things for me on that list are:

• go scuba diving on the Maldives
• become a father, preferably a good one
• buy a motorcycle when getting a midlife crisis
• write a book

And the ‘writing a book’ item on the list is getting close, so close that I’m at a point where I need help on it.

The reason why no more blog posts where written, is because of all the time that was consumed by writing for my book. And what a job it is…

At the  time of writing this blog post 90% of the texts are written, the book is being reviewed by colleagues and friends and I am looking at the publishing options (e-book, publisher, etc…)

So as you can see, a lot has been done already, but still some things are needed. One of those things is creating a design and that is where you guys come in.

I would like to get in contact with a student, artist or visual expressionist who is interested in working on my book and create a layout for it. In the past I have worked on the layout of websites, brochures etc but I would rather give the opportunity to for example a student that can use it as a part of his portfolio.

So I’m hoping to find someone who is interested in working with me on this or share his/here ideas and if so, feel free to contact me.

For your information:

The book that I’m writing will handle topics related to software development and leadership. It is written in Dutch, as I believe you can only write something good in your native tongue and possibly will be translated to English in a later stage.

Take a look at this great initiative!

Eric Sink wrote a book on Version control and gives copies away for free. And this time not only an e-book version, but a real paper version!!!

So what is this book about?

This book uses practical examples to explain version control with both centralized and decentralized systems.  Topics covered include:

• Basic version control commands and concepts
• Introduction to Distributed Version Control Systems (DVCS)
• Advanced branching workflows
• Strengths and weaknesses of DVCS vs. centralized tools
• Best practices
• How distributed version control works under the hood

Featuring these open source version control tools:

• Apache Subversion
• Mercurial
• Git
• Veracity

So where to find this amazing initiative? right here.

Here are some readers feeback:

“Version Control by Example may as well be called The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Distributed Version Control — it’s a concise and informative compendium that serves as both an introduction and a manual for practical usage of Mercurial, Git, Veracity, and virtually any other version control system.”

Alex Papadimoulis
The Daily WTF

“Eric covers multiple tools in lighthearted style that makes a potentially dry subject both amusing and understandable.  If version control is a new tool in your programmers’ belt, this book is a great place to start.”

Ben Collins-Sussman
Apache Subversion Developer

“Version control is a critical tool in the developer’s tool chain.  So it’s disappointing to consider just how few developers actually understand their version control system beyond the minimal incantations required merely to survive a day of coding at the office. Thanks to Eric Sink’s new book on the topic, this need be the case no longer.

Version Control by Example is organized well, light in tone, yet saturated with practical illustrations of not only how to choose among and use today’s most popular free version control tools, but how to do so with efficiency, understanding, and purpose.”

C. Michael Pilato
Apache Subversion Developer

Over the past decade or so we’ve seen important new ideas added to the mix of software design practices to help us produce better software. Design Patterns help us capture the design solutions and reveal a rationale for using them. Refactoring allows us to improve system design after the code is written.

Agile methods—and in particular, Extreme Programming—provide highly iterative and evolutionary development methods that are particularly well suited to fast changing requirements and rapidly evolving hardware and technology environments. Martin Fowler—a leading voice in understanding, honing, practicing, and promoting these approaches—offers up a suite of short talks on his recent thinking about how these design practices have changed software development.

Join Martin to explore what’s new on the horizon to support the design and development of new, more complex, interconnected systems than the world has ever known.

Check out these as well:

http://www.agilejournal.com/media-center/video-spotlight

Here is a great video on Agile and Kanban in particular as well as some of the tools to use.

What can we remember from these best practices?

First thing to remember is that Kaizen is a cool Japaneze word

Are there good tools for Kanban?

Jira with Greenhopper plugin is very handy and in the meantime they have improved their tools alot. Suncorp (the company integrated Kanban based software development with Jira and Greenhopper) gives a very good overview on how to use these tools and how to finetune them in order to have the best environment to work in.

When to use Kanban?

In maintenance or support teams it would be optimal to implement.
It doesn’t make any sence to use itterations as we use them in development teams, but we need to have follow up of the tasks. You can think of Kanban as daily iterations.

A great thing to do is also to look at the option of doing ScrumBan and get the best of both worlds. Here is a great document on how both work,  Scrum vs Kanban.

So what can we conclude?

It does make sense to use the ‘best of all’ to create a way of working that suites your environment best. So look at all of the available frameworks, methods and tools to create yours. (Scrum, Kanban, XP, RUP, …)

Use agile methods, or try to take a look at them. The fortune 500 companies are using these methods, so what is holding you back to start…

Kanban is great to visiualize your flow and limiting the work in progress.

Earned value management (EVM) is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress in an objective manner. EVM has the ability to combine measurements of scope, schedule, and cost in a single integrated system. Earned Value Management is notable for its ability to provide accurate forecasts of project performance problems. Early EVM research showed that the areas of planning and control are significantly impacted by its use; and similarly, using the methodology improves both scope definition as well as the analysis of overall project performance. More recent research studies have shown that the principles of EVM are positive predictors of project success. Popularity of EVM has grown significantly in recent years.

So, what can we say about EVM:

• It is a way to measure the amount of work actually performed on a project.
• It is a way to forecast a project’s cost and completion date using historical and statistical projections.
• It is a way to tell how well a project is “performing” compared to its original plan.
• Given this information it is a way to forecast how well the project will perform in the future.

Before starting to dig deeper into EVM is might be better to know a bit about terminology.

What are the basic concepts of Earned Value Management?

BCWS – Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (the plan)
This contains: Authorized work, timeframe of the work and sum of the planned values also known as the baseline plan.

BCWP – Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (the performance)
This will give you an answer on the question: How much of the panned work was accomplished?

ACWP – Actual Cost of Work Performed (the cost of performance)
This is the cost to convert BCWS into BCWP.

Calculations that can be made in order to have a good view on the project’s progress:

How to calculate the Earned Value?

1. Take the BAC (Budget At Completion) the total budget you have for your project.
2. Multiply it by the Actual % complete
3. The result number is the EV

So if you have a project on which you wanted to spend 300.000 € and it is 50% completed,
this means that your EV = 150.000€

For a project manager the 150.000€ is the project budget that he spend so far, but for the sponsor, this 150.000€ is the value he expects to get!

By calculating the Earned Value, you can easily compare the EV, the AC and the PV and get a great overview if your project is over or under budget and on time or not.

So like in this chart below, we can see that the project is under budget and behind schedule, although the earned value was higher than the panned value at the start of the project.

How to see if you are over or under budget?

In order to know this, you need to make 2 calculations:

CPI – Cost Performance Index = EV / AC
So take your earned value and divide it by the actual cost to get the Cost Performance Index.

CV – Cost Variance
This tells you the difference between what you planned to spend and what you actually spend. So to know how much you are under or over budget, subtract the actual cost from the earned value. (kinda logical isn’t it)
CV = EV – AC

So, now what does this mean?

If your CPI is less than 1 and CV is negative, it means that the sponsor is NOT getting the money’s worth value of the project.

If your CPI is greater than or equal to 1 and CV is positive, your actual cost is lower than the earned value, which means that the project is delivering more value than it costs.

How to see if your project is on time or not?

SPI – Schedule Performance Index = EV / PV
We didn’t speak about PV before, but it is the Planned Value and calculated by taking the BAC (Budget At Cost) and multiplying it with the planned % complete.

PV = BAC *  planned % completed

So, now what does this mean?

If your SPI is greater than 1, it means you are ahead of schedule and delivered more value than initially planned.

If your SPI is lower than 1, it means you are behind schedule and you are not delivering the planned value.

Conclusion:

The idea behind EVM is that you can use it to put a number on how your project is doing. By calculating all the above, you’ll have a good basic view on your project and you’ll be able to give feedback at any time to your superior.

Sources: Wikipedia & Head First Pmp: A Brain-Friendly Guide to Passing the Project Management Professional Exam by Jennifer Greene and Andrew Stellman