tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:20:40 +0000Easy to understand analysis of all the major world markets including commodities, stocks, currencies, ETFs and bonds.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Kevin)Blogger1078125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-5037210932862268049Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:29:00 +00002009-11-07T02:12:55.640-05:00One common problem that I think many traders have is the fear of missing out. I know this is a problem because this is something that I myself have learned to deal with over the years and even now I still jump the gun because I fear that I will miss out on a potential move in the market.One way to overcome the fear of missing out is to have a well thought out trading plan with specific rules for http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/fear-of-missing-out.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-5654526804365182182Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:07:00 +00002009-11-03T19:11:25.388-05:00goldEven though the dollar was up today, gold surged higher based on news that the Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold from the IMF for $6.7 billion. Today gold made a new record high but silver has yet to break high.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/gold-futures-make-all-time-new-highs.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-5051803855722385882Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +00002009-11-02T19:14:41.567-05:00crude oilA few of you have been writing in asking me what my opinion is on crude oil so I decided to make this post so that you can see exactly what I am thinking (if that means anything to anyone).Above is a daily chart of USO which is the ETF for crude oil. As you know I have been long this market based on the breakout of the symmetrical triangle formation which I posted here on this blog well before http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/crude-oil-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7988944923235255423Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:15:00 +00002009-10-30T18:24:56.178-05:00ForexAbove is a daily chart of the ETF for the Euro, symbol FXE. Last week when the Euro pushed up to new highs there was a MACD bearish divergence that developed. Now it appears that a major trendline is about to be broken. In my opinion if this currency can put in one more close below the trendline, I think that would confirm a high is in place and that the Euro should now begin some kind of sell http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/forex-has-euro-put-in-top.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7085370505776031418Fri, 30 Oct 2009 22:48:00 +00002009-10-30T17:58:08.270-05:00technical analysisThe stock market had a rough week with the S&P down 4.18% from last Friday's close and closing the month at a loss. In the above chart you'll notice the increase in volume. This is the largest weekly volume we've seen in 22 weeks. The major trendline which began last March was broken as well.As you know I've been bearish on the market as of last week based on the weakness I was seeing in the http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/stocks-close-week-on-their-low.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-2379598965697541201Wed, 28 Oct 2009 23:37:00 +00002009-10-28T18:46:54.932-05:00ForexcurrencyI'm keeping an eye on the U.S. Dollar because I see some interesting technical signals coming into play. Notice in the above chart that there is a MACD bullish divergence that took place last week when the dollar made new lows. There is also a very important trendline that this currency is now about to test. I think if we see 2 or 3 closes above the trendline that would confirm that a bottom has http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/has-us-dollar-bottomed.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-3831055154844561882Wed, 28 Oct 2009 23:01:00 +00002009-10-28T18:07:51.377-05:00technical analysisGold has been selling off over the past few trading sessions and is rapidly approaching a very significant level. If you look at the above chart of GLD you'll notice the psychological $100 level was resistance last month and may now act as support.I personally don't think the $100 level will hold because silver has been very weak and it may pull down gold even further. We'll see how things unfold.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/level-to-watch-in-gold.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7461802879913674431Wed, 28 Oct 2009 22:38:00 +00002009-10-28T17:48:38.390-05:00technical analysisIf you've been reading my blog over the past few days you would know that I've been leaning towards the bearish side of the market. Just to summarize what I was seeing that made me become cautious/bearish was the weakness in the homebuilders, banks and small cap stocks,Today we saw stocks get hammered with just about all the indices in the red. In the above daily chart you'll notice that the http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/stock-indices-close-below-their-50-day.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1351426801587119645Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:37:00 +00002009-10-28T16:46:45.412-05:00technical analysisYesterday I wrote about the weakness I was seeing in the small cap stocks and today we saw these stocks lead the stock market lower. The Russell 2000 index ($RUT) was down 3.51% today and was clearly the weakest when compared to the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ.The Russell 2000 index confirmed the double top formation today by breaking below support. The downside objective for this index is the 529 area.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/small-cap-index-confirms-double-top.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6748621601499518119Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:01:00 +00002009-10-28T12:07:46.824-05:00technical analysisA few days ago I posted about the bearish divergence I was seeing in the homebuilders index and that it could spell trouble for the market. Well today we are seeing the homebuilders along with the banks break through support. You can read that original post by clicking here. If time permits, I'll try to post more charts regarding the S&P, small caps and banks later tonight.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/home-builders-break-through-support.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1759102117302053052Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:11:00 +00002009-10-28T10:23:39.916-05:00bondsOn October 15th, I posted about a very significant level I was watching in the bond market for TLT. If you recall I was focused on the 93.50 area which I considered to be a major support zone and as you can see in the above chart the bond market has rallied off of this level. The actual low came in at 93.55 on Tuesday.If any of you bought the bonds earlier this week, I would use the rising http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/support-holds-in-bonds-tlt.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8088108277388497120Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:23:00 +00002009-10-27T20:40:25.461-05:00technical analysisAbove is a daily chart of the Russell 2000 small cap index ($RUT) and in the lower pane is a ratio chart that compares the small cap index to the S&P500. What we are seeing now is a classic double top formation that has developed in the small cap index. Today this index posted its first close below a very significant trendline which began back in March. I usually like to see 2 or 3 closes below ahttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/small-cap-stocks-have-been-leading.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8889183745517015390Mon, 26 Oct 2009 22:41:00 +00002009-10-27T20:00:13.771-05:00oilUSO has had a nice rally since last month and is now testing its breakout level. The $40 level was resistance back in June and now should act as support if this market is really as strong as it appears. Keep in mind there is a very dominant bearish seasonal that usually kicks in around this time of year so it will be interesting to see if USO holds this level.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/uso-tests-breakout-level.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-3348047962251983521Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:49:00 +00002009-10-25T22:03:33.279-05:00technical analysisIn my previous post I pointed out that some of the banks were beginning to show signs of weakness, well we're also seeing that take place in the housing index. Above is a daily chart of the homebuilding index (HGX) and in the lower pane is the S&P500. You'll notice since July both markets correlated perfectly making highs and lows together up until mid September where we are seeing an interestinghttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/housing-index-diverges-from-s.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1039029025004923866Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:32:00 +00002009-10-25T21:41:49.130-05:00technical analysisI'd like to share with all of you a market I'll be watching for a potential trade on the short side. Above is a daily chart of the ETF for the Regional Banking Index (KRE) and in the lower pane is the S&P500. Notice the symmetrical triangle that KRE has formed over the past 3 months. When I see this kind of formation I'm always looking to trade with the breakout.One thing that I find very http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/potential-trade-in-regional-banks-index.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-2072409061641090982Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:39:00 +00002009-10-15T20:46:46.204-05:00technical analysisThe bond market (TLT) has been trending upward in a well defined rising channel since last June. I consider this channel significant because it accurately predicted the October high. The big level to watch for is the bottom of the channel which comes in at around the 93.50 area. You'll notice last month's low also coincides with this price level which helps add more reliability that the 93 to http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/big-level-to-watch-for-in-bonds.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8313040561004636652Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:18:00 +00002009-10-15T20:24:48.596-05:00crude oilIf you go back and read my last post from 5 days ago, you will seer that I was watching the oil market because I felt a move was coming. Well, it appears that the move was to the upside as crude oil futures make an 11 month high.I bought USO when crude oil futures broke through resisitance. I'm not heavily long this market due to the bearish seasonal that usually kicks in around this time of yearhttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/crude-oil-futures-break-through.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-3392573157112036566Sat, 10 Oct 2009 22:35:00 +00002009-10-10T18:01:32.590-05:00technical analysisThe ETF for crude oil(USO) has been relatively quiet over the past four months which is why I would like to bring the above chart to your attention. The chart above is a weekly chart of USO along with the Bollinger Band study. Notice how the bands have been contracting and are closer to each other than any other time on the chart. This alerts me to the possibility of a trending move to begin in http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-i-am-watching-crude-oil.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-4552221056522352585Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:01:00 +00002009-10-07T20:14:52.834-05:00technical analysisAbove is a daily chart of the NASDAQ (NDX) and in the lower pane is the Williams %R oscillator. Notice since last March there have been 4 oversold readings with 3 of these readings resulting in a profitable rally. Now we are seeing the oscillator once again in an oversold condition and the NASDAQ appears to be heading back up. What's significant about this last pullback is that the NASDAQ has http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/nasdaq-oscillator-buy-signal.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6999568399498577125Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:56:00 +00002009-10-07T19:17:05.025-05:00technical analysisToday was a quiet day in the stock market with the S&P forming what is known as an inside day which also happens to be one of the smallest ranges in the past 10 days. An inside day is when today's range is "inside" yesterday's range. This means today's high was lower than yesterday's high and today's low was higher than yesterday's low.What I like about these inside days is that they usually takehttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/s-short-term-outlook.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7085493245811483992Tue, 06 Oct 2009 22:40:00 +00002009-10-06T17:45:57.752-05:00Well, I've been waiting for GLD to break through the $100 resistance level and today was that day. GLD gapped open higher above $100 and then rallied into the close on very good volume. My upside target is not far away and I will post my long-term view on this market sometime this week. Keep in mind the seasonal for this market is calling for a top in early October so I will be using a tight http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/gld-breaks-through-resistance.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-935066393847649222Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:44:00 +00002009-10-05T19:50:13.663-05:00ETFThe ETF for Natural Gas (UNG) is once again testing the $12 resistance level. I actually shorted this market last week with a protective stop above $12 which didn't get hit today but I chose to take the trade off anyway. This is the 3rd or 4th time UNG is back at the $12 level and I think it may go through this time.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/ung-tests-resistance-again.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-5204769691541724139Fri, 02 Oct 2009 03:03:00 +00002009-10-01T22:15:37.636-05:00technical analysisThe ETF for Natural Gas, symbol UNG was down over 6% today after failing to push through overhead resistance at $12. If you compare the top chart with natural gas futures which is in the lower pane, you will notice a very obvious divergence. Natural gas futures have enjoyed a rather nice advance this month taking out the highs from 5 months ago while the ETF (UNG) couldn't even rally above the http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/ung-etf-it-doesnt-pay-to-trade-it-from.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7974529790254526478Thu, 01 Oct 2009 03:10:00 +00002009-09-30T22:15:43.157-05:00ForexThe Canadian Dollar bounced off of a very significant long term trendline today. You'll notice in the lower pane that the Australian dollar is making new highs. Both of these currencies are commodity sensitive and are highly correlated so I wouldn't be surprise if we see the Canadian dollar break out to a new high in the next few days.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/canadian-and-australian-dollar.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-3687052906380414163Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:55:00 +00002009-09-30T23:04:35.044-05:00Last week crude oil was looking rather weak as it broke down technically. A few of you asked if I was going to short oil and my response was no. I've seen this happen so many times where the oil market looks weak but then the bull resumes and crushes the bears. September has also been a bullish month for oil so shorting during this time is very risky. I'm still on the sidelines right now in the http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/crude-rallies-over-5-today.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)2