tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:01:09 +0000http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Kevin)Blogger797125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-9004215246726161526Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:31:00 +00002008-07-15T19:47:32.664-05:00 The stock market may be heading south but the biotechs are heading north making a new year high today for the XBI index. Stocks such as AMGN, CELG, GENZ, MYGN, OSIP are all rapidly moving higher. http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/this-group-of-stocks-continues-to-move.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1411071890441728306Tue, 15 Jul 2008 22:54:00 +00002008-07-15T17:57:06.277-05:00 Today the Euro tested major resistance but was unable to push through. I've been bullish on the Euro and actually bought this currency a few weeks ago. I think we will see new highs for the Euro and Swiss. Patience!http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/euro-currency-tests-resistance.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-9136898939179784707Tue, 15 Jul 2008 22:36:00 +00002008-07-15T17:48:40.754-05:00 Today oil priced had their largest drop since the gulf war. As a result the oil stocks sold off as well triggering my protective stop to get hit in XLE. If you recall I bought XLE yesterday and took the trade off today at a loss. I don't hang around very long if things aren't working out in my favor. Looking at the above chart you'll notice that XLE didn't make new highs with oil. I was aware http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/oil-tumbles-largest-drop-since-gulf-war.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6645722621226278014Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:34:00 +00002008-07-14T22:51:50.749-05:00technical analysis Does the above heading sound familiar? Keep an eye on this group of stocks was a post I did on May 20th which suggested that we watch the mortgage finance stocks because a large trending move to the downside was about to unfold and that is exactly what has happened. The purpose of this post is not to brag about me making a good call (I'll be the first to admit the market has humbled me many http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/keep-eye-on-this-group-of-stocks.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1813158934882544471Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:26:00 +00002008-07-14T22:58:24.796-05:00dow jones industrials As you know I've been short DIA for about a 7 weeks. I just wanted to update where my protective stop is which is right above last week's high. I also feel there is a buying opportunity in the very near future and I have a list of ETFs and groups that I feel might be worth buying. I'll share this list with all of you if and when the market firms up a bit but for now I'm riding this downtrend.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/dow-jones-industrials-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6586382941527714591Tue, 15 Jul 2008 02:14:00 +00002008-07-14T21:18:12.227-05:00oil Today I bought XLE pretty much near the highs of the day. My stop is below last week's low so the risk on this trade is very very small. The stochastics have crossed upward indicating a buy signal is in place. Now I'll just sit back and let the market do what it's going to do. No thinking, just trade the setups, place your protective stops and walk away!http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/xle-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-600637416897498015Sat, 12 Jul 2008 03:16:00 +00002008-07-11T22:27:51.857-05:00oil I just wanted to post this chart of crude oil because I find it interesting on a technical basis. Notice how perfectly crude oil is trading within its channel bouncing from low to high but always remaining within the channel lines. It will be interesting to see what happens when these line are broken. Notice also how oil is making a low approximately every 5 weeks. It appears as though we're http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/crude-oil-holding-its-channel.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-5653442424301951331Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:53:00 +00002008-07-11T22:30:30.283-05:00gold Gold had another big rally today supported by a falling dollar and tensions building in the middle east. So far this is a picture perfect trade as far as technical analysis is concerned. The inverse head and shoulders pattern provided an early entry way before any of the news from the middle east regarding Iraq's missile testing hit the wires. You'll notice how prices pulled back earlier thishttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/golds-upside-objective.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-922189584829708836Thu, 10 Jul 2008 23:34:00 +00002008-07-10T18:53:05.563-05:00oilstocks Oil stocks have been pulling back within an uptrend so I am looking to buy this dip. Above is a daily chart of XLE along with volume and stochastics. Notice how volume has increased in XLE the past few days which in my opinion is a sign of a bottom. The last time I was bullish on XLE was back in January where I took a long position and it turned out to be a huge trade. You can read about that http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/xle-trade-setting-up.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1801576237385551162Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:52:00 +00002008-07-10T16:08:30.631-05:00Forex Above is a weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar and below that is the ETF for Crude Oil. You'll notice that the Canadian dollar has been consolidating since January of this year which means many traders are losing interest in it. I on the other hand am paying very close attention to this currency because I think we'll see a large trending move take place in the very near future. In the lower http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/this-currency-is-about-to-make-move.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-644326121101014412Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:37:00 +00002008-07-10T15:43:20.506-05:00metals Today gold had a nice move to the upside making a 2 month high. As you know I've been bullish on gold since June 24th based on several technical factors. I think we'll see new highs for the year in this metal so I'm going to sit tight with my long position. My protective stop is not right below the June 25th low.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/gold-moving-higher.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6861693393830282652Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:16:00 +00002008-07-05T20:28:06.535-05:00technical analysis Over the past couple of months the stock market has been selling off rather sharply with the Dow Jones Industrials leading the way down. I've been fortunate to be short DIA and several other dow related stocks for most of the decline but now I think we may see stocks bottom. Above is a weekly chart of DIA and below that is DIA's volume with a bollinger band applied to the volume. In the bottomhttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/is-dow-close-to-putting-in-bottom.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-9166302189689553782Sat, 05 Jul 2008 21:14:00 +00002008-07-05T16:24:16.742-05:00technical analysis One of the groups that was showing relative strength over the past 3 months were the coal stocks. These stocks have been holding a very tight uptrend until last week. Above is a daily chat of the ETF for coal, symbol KOL. You'll notice over the past 2 trading sessions these stocks got hit hard as a result of a downtick in European spot coal prices. Notice the range expansion and huge volume http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/coal-gets-hit-hard.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8383022143262304975Wed, 02 Jul 2008 02:05:00 +00002008-07-01T21:52:43.851-05:00ETFstocksOver the last few years I've placed my focus on trading ETFs rather than stocks. I'll still look at stocks such as GOOG or AAPL but I'd much rather focus on ETFs because they represent a broad basket of stocks and they also allow us to participate in commodity trends. In this post I'd like to show some charts of ETFs that many of you might not be aware of. So here we go! Above is the ETF forhttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/wonderful-world-of-etfs.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1692345981606853011Sun, 29 Jun 2008 03:44:00 +00002008-06-28T22:52:07.017-05:00Forex The other day I posted a chart of the Swiss Franc so it's only fair to post one for the Euro currency as well. Above is a daily chart of the ETF for the Euro currency. What I find particularly interesting about this chart is the huge volume that we saw on Friday. Whenever a stock or ETF has large spikes in volume it's usually the result of trading activity by mutual funds and other large http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/huge-volume-in-euro-currency-etf.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-4983860641811558144Sat, 28 Jun 2008 21:24:00 +00002008-06-28T16:26:59.789-05:00metals I think the above chart needs no explanation so I'll just say that the inverse head and shoulders bottom is bullish for gold stocks.http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/hui-gold-bugs-index-looking-bullish.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8163244238600147511Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:19:00 +00002008-06-27T20:47:27.538-05:00technical analysis As the tittle of this post says, there has to be something worth buying and indeed there is. Overall I'm still bearish on the stock market but there are some pockets of strength that are worth keeping an eye on. The groups that might be worth buying are the ones that are commodity related. Anything that has to do with gold, silver, steel and especially oil might be an excellent group of stockshttp://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/there-has-to-be-something-worth-buying.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-2002590160213899517Fri, 27 Jun 2008 23:16:00 +00002008-06-27T18:23:20.689-05:00Forex It has been awhile since I posted a chart of the Swiss Franc so here it is for your viewing pleasure. Above is a weekly chart of the Swiss along with the stochastic oscillator. Notice how oversold readings coincided with profitable buy signals. If you look at the last 6 stochastic buy signals all were profitable but one. So based on this time period the stochastic oscillator has been 83% http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/foreign-currencies-are-looking-bullish.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-301615769625751835Fri, 27 Jun 2008 22:20:00 +00002008-06-27T17:27:39.178-05:00technical analysis Above is a weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar and in the lower pane is the stochastic oscillator. Many of the highs that we've seen in the dollar over the past couple of years coincided with stochastic readings above 80. As you can see the stochastics reached the 80 level last May which is when I turned bearish on the dollar and I still remain bearish even though last months sell signal was a http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/is-us-dollar-headed-for-another-leg.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-6478326562010212965Thu, 26 Jun 2008 22:05:00 +00002008-06-26T17:11:02.479-05:00stocks One of the first groups of stocks that I turned bearish on back on May 20th was the Mortgage Financial stocks. If you recall I posted how this group of stocks was weaker than the rest of the market and was forming a descending triangle. As you can see in the above chart, the Mortgage Financial stocks have fallen out of bed since that post. You can read why I was bearish back on May 20th by http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/mortgage-finance-index-update_26.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8431596952025871348Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:48:00 +00002008-06-26T16:52:21.665-05:00Forex For the past few weeks I've been writing about how the British Pound was set up for a rally. Well today the Pound rallied nicely breaking its downtrend line and in my opinion turning the trend from down to up. I think this currency put in a significant bottom and will now rally. My upside target for the British Pound is a test of the high from last November!http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/has-trend-in-british-pound-turned-up.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-8364043563372226329Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:41:00 +00002008-06-26T15:48:00.108-05:00technical analysis As you know I've been bearish on the Dow and today we saw the dow tank 358 points! You'll notice in the above chart that the dow has taken out a significant support level. My next downside objective for the dow is the 10700 area. You'll recall a few days ago I exited half my short position in DIA. I now have a little less than half my original short position and I'll trail my stop to allow http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/dow-crahses-through-support.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-1760523746029351215Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:33:00 +00002008-06-26T15:36:57.968-05:00gold Well folks, as you know I've been bullish on gold and today we got an explosive move to the upside! Gold was up over 33 dollars today for the spot futures contract. The head and shoulders bottom I've been writing about forecasts a move to the $100 level for GLD. We'll see what happens. What a day!http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/gold-explodes-higher.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7601167736281775579Wed, 25 Jun 2008 01:43:00 +00002008-06-24T20:56:23.216-05:00technical analysis The Canadian Dollar has been going sideways for many weeks which usually means a large trending move is coming in the near future. Notice the position of the stochastics and how low stochastic readings coincided with major buy signals in the past. There is no entry to buy at the moment but this currency is on my watch list. The British Pound looks like it's finding support and may be in the http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/potential-big-trades-i-am-watching.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-7061376504193716082Tue, 24 Jun 2008 22:22:00 +00002008-06-24T17:29:21.182-05:00technical analysis I just wanted to update all of you on my position in the market because I know some of you did this trade with me. I covered a little more than half my short position in the dow as my target zone was hit today and I also exited my QQQQ long position at a small loss. The NASDAQ is still showing strength but as you know I keep my stops very tight which means I take small losses so I'm out of the http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/dow-and-nasdaq-update_24.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Kevin)