Khaki Pants and Press Box Hotdogs

Myles' always excellent, most entertaining 2013 NFL mock draft

2013-04-25T19:43:00.000-04:00

So my good friend Myles has done me the good favor of writing a mock significantly better than anything I could muster. He deserves a greater introduction but I've got a few other things going on...so without further adieu (and just before the real draft starts in case he gets them all right)...

2013 NFL Mock Draft

Kansas City Chiefs-Luke Joeckel-OT-Texas A&M

The Chiefs are picking a tackle as evidenced by their Brandon Albert finagling. It comes down to Joeckel or Eric Fisher obviously. Joeckel seems to be a guaranteed B+ with the potential for a little more. Fisher feels like an A+ hiding in a C conference. I like Fisher and honestly think Canton could be in his future. But the Chiefs like Joeckel.

I think. Maybe. The two most common sentiments of a 2013 NFL Draft littered with uncertainty.

Jacksonville Jaguars-Iggy Ansah-DE-BYU

No one knows, and anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves. Jags GM David Caldwell is keeping a real tight lid on things, and not even a peep has drifted out of their camp. A couple of things to note though. Dion Jordan to the Jags is a little something called groupthink. Gus Bradley said at the Senior Bowl that a team should be built around speed, leading some to irrationally believe the Jags need a defensive end, they like speed, Dion Jordan is fast, it all makes perfect sense. And maybe it does, and maybe (there goes that word again) the Jags will grab the remarkably unproductive Oregon DE, but there is no evidence linking the team to Jordan. People are following unsubstantiated hunches in the blogosphere blindly into a flawed conclusion.

Another thing to note is that Barkevious Mingo isn’t off the table for the Jags. Caldwell has said he likes two players. We have no idea who they are, and the same logic that leads to Jordan could very well lead to Mingo if the Jags prefer him. Mingo is an extraterrestrial athlete who could absolutely transform the Jags chronically anemic pass rush. Tape don’t like. And I like Mingo. And I like the Jags, so here’s hoping.

A word on Eric Fisher. We don’t know much about David Caldwell, but the man is an explicit needs drafter. The Jaguars have many needs. Let’s call it all the needs. However, LT is probably the least needy area on the roster. Eugene Monroe was sneaky good last year and probably would have made the Pro Bowl if the event reflected football. Now, this needs drafter thing could be posturing by Caldwell. The new Jags GM does not have a huge body of work to stand on alone, but did serve as Director of College Scouting for Falcons from 2008-2012. Let’s take a little peak at their picks to try to detect a needs drafting trend. Obviously, Caldwell wasn’t the GM but certainly had a say in the evaluation and selection.

2008-Matt Ryan-QB-Boston College

I don’t know if you remember the whole Michael Vick situation. I think it is safe to say moving on from the Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redman poo poo platter they were running out was a need.

2009-Peria Jerry-DT-Ole Miss

Normally, a team drafts a DT to slow the run. Not always but usually that is the thinking. The 2008 Falcons defense ranked 28^th in yard allowed per rushing attempt. That ranking was the worst statistical measure on the entire team. They were also 23^rd in rushing touchdowns allowed and 25^th in rushing yards conceded. Their starting DTs? Grady Jackson and Jonathan Babineaux. Not exactly building block material, especially the 35 year old Jackson. Probs a need pick.

2010-Sean Witherspoon-OLB/DE-Missouri

28 total team sacks in 2009 with no single player amassing more than 6. The worst team statistic that year? Passing yard per attempt followed closely thereafter by total passing yards allowed. Perhaps the team needed to draft a pass rusher to alleviate the issue.

2011-Julio Jones-WR-Alabama

Matt Ryan was his usually efficient self in 2010 tossing 28 and only 9 interceptions. Passing yards were the only weak spot in his arsenal where he ranked 15^th in the NFL. The team had also become overly reliant on Roddy White who accounted for 37% of the club total. In steps ultra dynamic, trade your whole draft for Julio Jones to fix a recognized team need.

This information is obviously not conclusive, and the provided stats are somewhat biased towards an expected conclusion. Empirical scholarship this is not. However, it does give a sense that perhaps Caldwell should be taken for his needs drafting word.

But finally to Ansah. The guy is a freak and everybody wants their Jason Pierre-Paul. Ansah can play in the 4-3 and 3-4, which is necessary in Gus Bradley’s system. The lack of production scares me. It should scare everyone. Ansah could be transformative though and has all the skills to be a very special player. Caldwell also has time to develop a player as expectations are remarkably low in JAX this year.

Oakland Raiders-Sharrif Floyd-DT-Florida

Floyd, recipient of the Mike Mayock hype machine badge of honor, seems to be the consensus pick for the Raiders. The guy obviously has physical gifts and lord knows it’s basically impossible to a. figure out anything about this draft b. tell how well a college DT actually plays as a casual observer c. discern how sustainable is Floyd’s leap into the elite last season from fairly a pedestrian level his first two years. It’s also hard to know what the always unpredictable Raiders might do in this especially unpredictable draft. But they have no DTs. Tommy Kelly, Desmond Bryant, and Richard Seymour are gone, and a lot of people feel some kind of way about Floyd. I don’t have a great feeling about Mr. Floyd, but I don’t have a great feeling about the Raiders either.

Philadelphia Eagles-Eric Fisher-OT-Central Michigan

Jason Peters is coming off a torn Achilles and their right tackle situation was sub-par to be generous. Fisher is special, and the Eagles, despite recent struggles, are a solid franchise who won’t flub this up. The Geno Smith pick is too cute anyway. A huge advantage Chip Kelly brings to the table is turning so-so quarterbacks (Darron Thomas, pride of the Calgary Stampede, for example) into game changers via his system. While Geno “I can’t throw in the wind” Smith is remarkably so-so, the 4^th overall pick is not. The Eagles are taking the value and finding their franchise left tackle.

Detroit Lions-Lane Johnson-OT-Oklahoma

Dee Milliner is falling. Somebody write that down for me. The five surgeries article getting leaked this week is the cherry on top of a slowly downward trend hype cycle for Milliner. So while that seemingly would be the pick, it won’t be. The Lane Johnson hype feels very real, and man oh man is the Lions tackle situation desperate. The Jason Fox-Corey Hilliard platoon at the spot opposite of 2012 first rounder Riley Reiff isn’t going to cut the proverbial mustard. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions didn’t jump ahead of the Eagles to go after Fisher also.

Cleveland Browns-Dion Jordan-DE/OLB-Oregon

I don’t mean to attack anyone publically. He seems like a genuinely nice guy who clearly has made a lot of good friends and is probably a good person. That part of his life is clearly and definitely more important than what I am about to say. But, new Browns GM Mike Lombardi is a special kind of incompetent. The man has spent the last several years slinging the most trite, ill-informed mess around the B.S. Report and NFL Network I have ever heard. He traded Randy Moss to the Patriots pre-2007 for a 3^rd Round pick. Best I can tell, he also picked JaMarcus Russell, you know, just the biggest bust in NFL history. Lombardi once said the first way to evaluate a quarterback is to see how far they can throw the ball. Just hand them the ole pigskin and see how far they can chuck it. Amazing. As soon as I heard that Lombardi had been hired by the Browns, my immediate thought was not again Cleveland, not again. (ed. note, insert obligatory Decision, Boys and Girls Club, talents to South Beach joke here)

So, yeah, if anyone is picking Jordan, who ranked 3^rd on his college team in sacks last year and the star of Andy Staples annual overrated draft prospects column (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/-nfl-draft/news/20130423/2013-nfl-draft-overrated-underrated/?sct=hp_t12_a9&eref=sihp) it’s Lombardi. They’ll be thrilled Jordan fell to them. After all, he does run real fast. A blue chipper, indeed.

Arizona Cardinals-Star Lotulelei-DT-Utah

You had to think this was the year the Levi Brown era would end. It seems like forever and always he has been the brunt of the Cardinals offensive line is terrible conclusions. Yet another year goes by and the team beat writers are adamant the team is fine with its line situation.

So here lands Lotulelei whose heart condition has been overstated while his talent has not. The Cards’ defense struggled last year against the run despite their bullish beginning to the season. They were 28^th in rushing yards allowed and 22^nd in yards per attempt. Lotulelei is the real deal and could be the final piece in an elite level d in the desert.

Buffalo Bills-Tavon Austin-WR-West Virginia

If I had to guess a team to bust a pick this draft other than the hapless Browns, it would be Buffalo. GM Buddy Nix’s recent phone call embarrassment was the most recent in a long line of poor decisions. And man was that a bad decision.

I want to believe they would prioritize replacing Andy Levitre and go with one of the elite offensive guard prospects in the draft. I really don’t want to believe they would pick Doug Marrone’s mediocre-is-too-generous-a-word former QB Ryan Nassib. That is a bridge too far. So, let’s go with Tavon Austin, a shifty little waterbug. There is certainly precedent for Nix plopping an elite athlete in his frigid city and then misusing him (see, Spiller, CJ). The Bills’ GM has also mentioned a desire to draft a receiver and Austin has elevated himself about the rest of the wideout pack.

New York Jets-Barkevious Mingo-OLB-LSU

Mingo will not be Darrelle Revis. Other than their proclivity for playing at different places on the field, Mingo is not the greatest player ever at his position. Mingo could be Aldon Smith though. Only a rare handful of defensive players jump off the television screen quite like Barkevious. The only thing keeping these teams apart is Mingo potentially going earlier.

Tennessee Titans-Jarvis Jones-OLB-Georgia

This team was bad at a lot of things last year. In the 28 statistical categories Pro Football Reference tracks, the Titans ranked 20^th or worse in 21 of them. As a result, they have a lot of holes to fill. Given the duration of the management’s tenure and the subsequent need to win now to save jobs, an immediate impact player is likely. Jones’ health is a concern, but his production is not. The man knows how to rush the passer and fits the Titans’ scheme perfectly. He might be special, and talent like his doesn’t fall often.

San Diego Chargers-DJ Fluker-OT-Alabama

With the Lord of No Rings A.J. Smith finally departed, the Chargers should engage in rebuilding for the first time in years. Cornerback was an area of need prior to the signing of talented but injury-prone Derrick Cox. Offensive tackle is the consensus need area and though Fluker cannot play on the more valuable left edge, he can be an extremely effective right sided mauler. Great pick on one of the surest things in the entire draft class.

Miami Dolphins-Johnathan Cooper-OG-North Carolina

Speaking of management desperate to win now, GM Jeff Ireland is in panic mode and may take the franchise down with him. The Dolphins are drifting towards a special kind of dysfunction. I would place them third in the power rankings of teams most likely to stink up the draft. Cooper has scooted right on past elite prospect Warmack and will probs be the first guard off the board. Guards are super safe picks historically, and I have no reason to believe Cooper won’t be a really effective and even special player for the Dolphins and form a great line with lesser Pouncey and Branden Albert. But I can’t help but wondering if that 40 time hasn’t unnecessarily skewed opinion on him. At the end of the day, I just don’t think he is as good as Warmack, which makes this pick a mistake.

New York Jets (from Tampa Bay)-Tyler Eifert-TE-Notre Dame

Eifert buzz is building people! Mockdom has him all over the map, but my hunch is this is where he lands. The Jets are not going to get any better unless their offense improves. Mark Sanchez is bad. He is part of the problem but not the only one. His receiver situation last year was somewhere between not great and real, real bad. Eifert fills an area of need with a unique skill set (Kiperism in the house!) and great measureables. Also, this could be the place for a corner, but the stats show Cromartie and Wilson can piece a remarkably respectable pass coverage together. Dealing from a position of strength was an unreported reason why the Jets felt okay dealing Revis. It’s important to note too that Eifert isn’t nearly the player Heofconstantcontractdemands is but may actually add more value to the team from a positional needs standpoint. But probably not. You can only have the best ever so often.

Carolina Panthers-Sheldon Richardson-DT-Missouri

There are few players more locked into one team as much as Richardson with the Panthers. Safety has been a consideration with draftniks, but a game changer on the defensive line is more valuable than at the suddenly scarce safety position. Richardson can really be disruptive and could be an impact player for the Carolina Cams.

Side note: Two years ago in this little endeavor, I predicted Cam Newton as the Panthers pick and that he would be boom or bust. I never guessed he would be boom and bust.

New Orleans Saints-Sylvester Williams-DT-North Carolina
St. Louis Rams-Kenny Vacarro-S-Texas
Pittsburgh Steelers-Dee Milliner-CB-Alabama
Dallas Cowboys-Chance Warmack-OG-Alabama
New York Giants-DJ Hayden-CB-Houston
Chicago Bears-Arthur Brown-ILB-Kansas State
Cincinnati Bengals-Eric Reid-S-LSU
St. Louis Rams (from Washington)-Justin Hunter-WR-Tennessee
Minnesota Vikings-Cordarrelle Patterson-WR-Tennessee
Indianapolis Colts-Xavier Rhodes-CB-Florida State
Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)-Kevin Minter-ILB-LSU
Green Bay Packers-Tank Carradine-DE-Florida State
Houston Texans-Zach Ertz-TE-Stanford
Denver Broncos-Bjorn Werner-DE-Florida State
New England Patriots-Desmond Trufant-CB-Washington State
Atlanta Falcons-Kyle Long-OL-Oregon
San Francisco 49ers-Johnathan Cyprien-S-Florida International
Baltimore Ravens-Matt Elam-S-Florida

A good sign

2012-07-26T16:54:00.000-04:00

It's not that I don't believe Mr. Khan when he says the team isn't moving but actions speak louder than words, you know? Well, this was some serious action. No joke. I feel much more confident about the Jaguars future being in Jacksonville. He didn't have to drop that money (which had to be significant).

(Watch it come out tomorrow that the locker room is now portable)

A little perspective...

2012-07-26T09:08:00.002-04:00

...Chase Stuart struggles to find examples of when a team used two QBs without dire consequences.

Side note: I've been reading Football Perspective for a while. My first thought was "It's so damn good and smart and well-written, I'm jealous". Chase, clearly works really hard at coming up with valuable and not sensational posts (Whereas I'm lazy). My next thought was to hide it from all my friends so I could seem smarter. That was working for a while till it turns out Myles' was reading the site as well, so I figure better to promote quality and hope he doesn't end up behind ESPN's paywall. Thanks for the great stuff, Chase. And if you haven't checked it out, definitely do, it's smart and written in a very accessible way.

Here's his take of the Jaguars in 2012, btw. It's kind of not really about the Jags but still worth a read.

Too much hardball with MJD?

2012-06-22T11:43:00.001-04:00

In today's O-Zone, John Oehser jumped all over Gary from DeBary for referencing the NFL's Top 100 and how it relates to contract negotiations with Maurice Jones-Drew. Here's the Q&A in full:

Gary from DeBary, FL:

No. 12 Player in the entire NFL – voted by his peers, the people who have to play against him every week. I understand and have agreed with the stance Gene Smith and the Jaguars have taken on this issue, but clearly this situation is an exception to the 'rule.’ It is now time for the Jaguars to make some kind of 'peace offering' and get Maurice Jones Drew in for the beginning of training camp. Get the 2012 season started on the right track on all fronts! At the end of the day, that IS what is best for the Jaguars moving forward. Your thoughts on MJD's ranking and how it could or should affect his – and future players’ –status as Jaguars?

John: My thought on Jones-Drew’s ranking is it was well-deserved. He had a magnificent, memorable year. My thought on how it should affect this situation or his status with the Jaguars is . . . are you kidding me? A list? You want them to negotiate based on a list?

While I agree that it would be silly to let anything as silly as an NFL popularity contest influence negotiations (or their existence, I suppose), Gary from DeBary actually slipped a relevant point in there. MJD is a special player, and although you don't want to get in the habit of tearing up contracts with two years left on them, I imagine most fans and GMs wish that they were consistently having to wrestle with the issue of how much to pay their All-Pros. The Jags timed his contract perfectly. There's no doubting that but, as Gene Smith has said over and over and over, no negotiations (ok, so those links are all reporting the same story, but he was pretty emphatic), I think they've overplayed their position. Maybe it is all strategy but I think hiding behind precedent and future ramifications is a little weak. There have literally only been a handful of players in Jags history who both on and off the field, in the locker room and around the league, meant as much as Jones-Drew. If you add some incentives and an extra year to his contract, what player is going to step up and say me next? Certainly no one on the team currently. Future 12th best players in the NFL? If that's what is holding this situation up, it's time to pay the man.

(Image is courtesy of FL Times-Union. Also, for self-plagerism protection, heads up, I submitted a similar question to the O-Zone. I wanted to hear Oesh's thoughts and he might not be one of my 7 readers. He also might not respond.)

More Martellus Bennett please

2012-05-23T17:17:00.000-04:00

Martellus was both insightful and funny when talking to Tania Ganguli about Laurent Robinson, who he played with last year in Dallas.

First, insightful Martellus:

"I think Laurent is a No. 1," Bennett said. "He proved that last year he was one of our leading receivers if not the leading receiver of the Cowboys. No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 doesn’t matter as long as you get your job done. Throw me the ball, I catch it, that’s what he is type of guy."

Now, funny Martellus.
On Robinson:

"He’s super skinny though. I don’t think he has ankles."

On Gabbert:

"Ain’t your quarterback named Blaine? Blaine that’s an old name. That’s an old person name."

There's more in Tania's post and it's all pretty much gold. I think he's absolutely dead-on about Robinson. He's talented, and had flashed that talent before emerging last year in Dallas. Unfortunately, he also consistently suffered from injury issues. We shall see.

-Q

Ignorant Draft Musings

2012-04-27T10:55:00.002-04:00

My favorite night in the annual sports calendar just past, and I wanted to share some of my oh so enlightening reactions:

1. J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!!

2. The dominant theme of the 1st Round was smart teams, and yes I'm including the Jags and maybe even the Cowboys in this group, taking advantage of an unusual market inefficiency. The consensus around the league settled so firmly around the concept that the value of this draft was its depth that real value could be found in moving up. When everybody wants to move back, value can be found in moving up. The Jags, Cowboys, and Eagles all sacrificed a relatively meager amount to move up and draft elite players. The Patriots, perpetual kings of moving back, moved up twice. It was a different kind of night.

3. Gene Smith made an outstanding move. Every unknowing blogger and Peter King on the planet thought the Jaguars wanted to move back until about an hour before the draft. Then, all of a sudden, my man Gene only sacrificed a 4th round draft pick to get J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!! Just as a point of reference, I want to list some of the best 4th round picks from the last 3 years:

Roy Helu-RB-Redskins
Sam Acho-LB-Cardinals
Delone Carter-RB-Colts
Cortez Allen-DB-Steelers
Mike Williams-WR-Bucs
Jacoby Ford-WR-Raiders
Aaron Hernandez-TE-Patriots
Geno Atkins-DT-Bengals
O'Brien Schofield-LB-Cardinals
Mike Thomas-WR-Jags
Louis Murphy-WR-Raiders
Austin Collie-WR-Colts
Jacob Tamme-TE-Colts

That's it. 13 quality picks out of a possible 96. Gene Smith sacrificed a 13.5% of finding a quality player for the chance to draft J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!! My man Gene. What a hoodwink.

4. It is safe to say we can stop talking about the Steelers offensive line woes. If greater Pouncey stays healthy and David DeCastro is half the player people think he is, we are looking at an all-time great interior offensive line. Look for a great year from Rashard Mendenhall and some favorable comparisons to the Walter Jones-Steve Hutchinson road-grating excellence that somehow yielded a Shaun Alexander MVP.

5. Teams around the league yearn to get after the quarterback. The Giants won the Super Bowl with an elite pass rush that outlasted the glamorous offenses that dominated the regular season. So, in a cliche-perpetuating movement, the "copycat" league attempted to replicate their success by drafting an enormous amount of pass rushers. 7 seemingly indistinguishable quarterback chasers were selected between picks 15 and 28. One of those players might turn into Clay Matthews of Jason Pierre-Paul, but it is safe to assume there is a Vernon Gholston or two in that bunch. My money would be on Bruce Irvin, Quinton Coples, and Nick Perry.

6. Just to recap, the Rams turned the 2nd pick into:

Michael Brockers-DT-LSU
39th Pick in 2012
45th Pick in 2012
Washington's 1st in 2013
Washington's 1st in 2014

That is an enormous load. The ascendancy of Robert Griffin should be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rams franchise as they have the opportunity to turn his potential into 5 quality starters. As long as the front office does their job, the Rams just created five years worth of championship contention.

7. J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!!

-Myles
(KPPBH's ignorant draft commentator)

Welcome to Jax, J Boogie

2012-04-27T10:12:00.001-04:00

(image courtesy of Florida Times Union)

BLACKMON!!!

There are no guarantees and every player can fail but yesterday was the most universally beloved draft pick for the Jags since Fred Taylor in 1998. Gene Smith supporters are happy. Gene Smith doubters seem to be in some state of shock or pleasant surprise. There is, as officially as it gets, buzz about the Jags.

You have to get the player right but the trade was perfectly executed. It's reasonable to assume the Rams would have taken him at sixth, so a move was necessary. They moved up the minimum amount necessary to get him. They gave up as little as could be reasonably expected (4th rounder). It always feels good when your team is doing the same thing as the traditionally smart teams (Eagles and Patriots moving up. Cowboys, although traditionally dumb, gave a reasonable amount to jump up and get Claiborne). Smith noted everyone wanted to move down. He went the other way.

An odd thing has happened to the Jacksonville receivers this off-season. They are good. They are competitive. It's a crowded room. My friend Russell (read his movie reviews here) instantly pointed out that Blackmon and Laurent Robinson are the best Jags duo since Smith and McCardell. I have my worries about Robinson (mostly injury related) but here's the thing, the Jaguars have a legitimately deep WR corp and one of the best WR coaches in history. In one off-season, it has gone from being an obvious weakness to a potential strength. That is odd in the best and most glee inducing way. Quick glance at Jags WR corp:

Justin Blackmon - The presumptive #1.
Laurent Robinson - Young, speedster. Caught ten touchdowns last year. Less pressure with addition of Blackmon.
Mike Thomas - Good, young player who was clearly on the rise before all the WRs stepped back last season.
Cecil Shorts III - Rough first year but flashed in the preseason.
Lee Evans - Low risk, high reward veteran, who, at a minimum gives a lesson on how to be a professional, while, if healthy, legitimately pushing younger guys to be at their best. Also, it has been forgotten but he looked very good last preseason before injuries derailed him.
Chastin West - Jags fans will scoff but he was a player Green Bay was disappointed got away. A full-season will give the Jags a chance to properly evaluate.
Jarret Dillard - Certainly expendable now but he hasn't ever been properly coached or healthy. He's healthy and there's no coaching excuse now. He's legitimate competition if nothing else
Taylor Price, Brian Robiskie - Young, former reasonably high draft picks. Once again, competition.

It's hard to look at that list and not think the Jaguars will keep six guys.

A supremely underrated quality of Gene Smith's is his ability to completely remake a position, incredibly quickly. If you don't evaluate well, it's all over anyway, but Jags fans should at least respect he has a clear vision. In recent years, he has, typically in a single off-season, completely overhauled nearly every position (OT, DT, S and LB being the most obvious.)

If he fails, he fails, but I think Jags fan truly fail to realize how many teams are shooting blindly in the dark.

-Q

Carl and Q's Mock

2012-04-26T01:02:00.000-04:00

Carl described this mock perfectly, "A work of art."

Without further ado,

Colts - Andrew Luck, Stanford, QB

Colts fans do not deserve this.

Redskins - RGIII, Baylor, QB

We'll see how it all shakes out but there's definitely a feeling in DC if the Colts had passed on Luck, Skins fans would have been disappointed. That seems odd but I'm pretty sure it's real.

Vikings - Matt Kalil, USC, Tackle

Latest rumor is that they're debating between Claiborne and Blackmon, leaning towards Claiborne. I don't think either of those guys would be a poor choice but I think they'd regret the choice.

Browns - Trent Richardson, Alabama, RB

Stud. He also plays football.

Bucs - Morris Claiborne, LSU, CB

He'd be rated higher if someone had nicknamed him the Molasses Weasel.

Rams - Fletcher Cox, Miss St, DT

Good motor, athletic, high character, top competition. What's not to like?

Jaguars - Justin Blackmon, OK St., WR

The debate between if he's a 1 or 1a is asinine. He'll make Pro Bowls. He's the BAP and he fits need perfectly. That's enough.

Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, QB

Just because the Dolphins seem desperate doesn't mean Tannehill won't work out.

Panthers - Luke Keachly, Boston College, LB

If all he does is turn touchdowns into 5 yards gains, that'll be wins

Bills- David DeCastro, Stanford, OG

I don't really get why he rose while Jonathan Martin fell but he does seem mean and tough.

Chiefs - Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina, CB

All the Chiefs fans I know want a nose tackle. It's the deepest defensive tackle draft in years. And yet, I think they'll bite on this athletic gambler, Asante Samuel, for all the good and bad

Seahawks - Melvin Ingram, South Carolina, OLB

Short arms didn't hurt him here.

Cardinals - Michael Floyd, Notre Dame, WR

Larry Fitzgerald may know a thing or two about WRs.

Cowboys - Mark Barron, Alabama, S

Adam Shefter today reported a guarantee that Barron would be gone by 14. Shefter is approximately 100% right normally. Whatcha gonna do. It's hard out there for a mock.

Eagles - Michael Brockers, LSU, DT

Planet Theory

Jets - Kendall Wright, Baylor, WR

He'll need to get very open to catch those passes from Tebow.

Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama, CB

For the Bengals, this is a high character move. They could've taken Janoris Jenkins (and don't think we didn't try to make it happen at 21)

Chargers - Dontari Poe, Memphis, DT

Poe is looking forward very much to dominating and getting run out of town.

Bears - Quinton Coples, UNC, DE

Coples and Peppers would be terrifying. Plus side, if Coples dominates people will probably start spelling my name right.

Titans - Riley Reiff, Iowa, OT

The Titans suck. No commentary for you.

Bengals - Courtney Upshaw, Alabama, DE

Some of these Alabama defensive players are going to bust (or it'll be the greatest college defense ever) but I have no idea which ones.

Browns - Cordy Glenn, Georgia, OL

Dominated at the Senior Bowl but got roughed up by Melvin Ingram. Not sure what that means but I bet he's good enough to play opposite Joe Thomas.

Lions - Jonathan Martin, Stanford, OT

Supposedly he's fallen but left tackles have a way of rising back up on draft day.

Steelers - Jerel Worthy, Michigan St, DT

They're smart. They'll go BAP.

Broncos - Coby Fleener, Stanford, TE

Feed the Peyton monster.

Texans - Nick Perry, USC, OLB

It's never good when a team in your division picks guys that scare you. Brooks Reed scares me. So does Perry. Everyone says he has good athleticism but can't move laterally. I think that means people think something is up but don't know quite what. I prefer for division rivals to draft obviously flawed players.

Patriots - Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech, WR

It just seemed a little cheeky to put "Trades down"

Packers - Shea McClellin, Boise State, LB

Thompson strikes again. I read somewhere (Greg Cosell?) that McClellin gets narrow when rushing the passer. I love the imagery of that. So poetic.

Ravens - Whitney Mercilus, Illinois, DE

I'm oddly jealous of the teams at the bottom of the first round who get their pick out of these DEs. Mercilus makes some pretty impressive plays in his highlights

49ers - Rueben Randall, LSU, WR

Every year odd trends emerge at the end of round one in mocks. It's so far down, you know you don't know, some team is going to draft a guy out of Midwestern State (Seriously that could happen this year. Looking at you, Amini Silatolu). This year, every mock squeezes Randall into the first. He never rises, he never falls. Just sits patiently between 26 and 32, waiting for his name to be called.

Patriots - Dont'a Hightower, Alabama, LB

Belichick and Saban. Gapping hole in their defense. They'll probably trade down. The dream is to own all 32 picks in the second one year (I may have stolen that line from somewhere accidentally. Apologies)

Giants - Dwayne Allen, Clemson, TE

Psychologists should come up with a bias to reflect when talent evaluators overrate something cause they've seen too much of it. That may have happened here. Still, he's a big, strong guy with good body control. Plus, Giants just won a Super Bowl. They do what they want. (Whatever they do, it'll be smart and well thought out, nothing like the end of this mock

That's it. As long as no one trades, I think we nailed it.

-Q (and Carl)

Myles' 2012 Mock

2012-04-25T22:14:00.000-04:00

First, big thanks to Myles for providing this mock. He wrote out a mock draft last year that I really enjoyed. There are a couple of ways to interpret a mock.

1) You can grade them entirely by how well they match a player to a team, in which case they all get F's (or in random years they all get a C-. Coincidentally, this might be one of those years, a lot of consensus especially around the top 10, although that's breaking up somewhat as Matt Kalil supposedly falls)

2) You can grade them on how sincerely and intelligently they play out their vision of the draft. I say sincerely because there is no shortage of professional writers who shamelessly do something different, not because they actually believe that's what's going to or should happen, but because they want to stand out from the multitudes (and there are multitudes). I say intelligently because if you go to pretty much any football related mock draft you can find one guy genuinely SCREAMING IN ALL CAPS THAT HE THINKS CASE KEENUM, NCAA FOOTBALL YARDAGE CHAMPION, SHOULD BE A TOP TEN DRAFT PICK. I don't judge either of these groups too harshly, fella (or lady) gotta get paid and who knows maybe Case will be a top ten draft pick, but Myles is neither of those things. He just a kid with a vision and a dream. Enjoy. Mock after the jump.

1.     Indianapolis Colts-Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford

·       Safer of two probable franchise guys because of body composition and family pedigree

2.     Washington Redskins-Robert Griffin, III-QB-Baylor

·       Electrifying but slightly risky because of slight build and possible Cam-related overhype

3.     Minneapolis Vikings-Matt Kalil-LT-USC

·       Safe, solid lineman should meet one of many franchise needs

4.     Cleveland Browns-Trent Richardson-RB-Alabama

·       Complete back with limited workload and offense altering ceiling

5.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Morris Claiborne-CB-LSU

·       So stout in coverage that opposing offenses threw at Mattieu, the most feared corner in NCAA

6.     St. Louis Rams-Justin Blackmon-WR-Oklahoma State

·       Elite work ethic and ball skills perfectly match team needs

7.     Jacksonville Jaguars-Fletcher Cox-DL-Mississippi State

·       Rising star with character and penetrative capabilities is Gene Smith’s ideal BPA

8.     Miami Dolphins-Ryan Tannehill-QB-Texas A+M

·       High ceiling, high floor QB selected by overbearing owner and desperate front office

9.     Carolina Panthers-Stephon Gilmore-CB-South Carolina

·       Speedy playmaker who takes too many gambles selected by hometown Panthers

10. Buffalo Bills-Luke Kuechly-LB-Boston College

·       All everything linebacker potentially elevates defense to elite level

11. Kansas City Chiefs-David DeCastro-G-Stanford

·       Transforms line and makes Jamaal Charles an elite back again

12. Seattle Seahawks-Chandler Jones-DE-Syracuse

·       Trendy riser meets risk loving front office

13. Arizona Cardinals-Michael Floyd-WR-Notre Dame

·       Physical receiver gives Fitzgerald room to breathe as long as breathalyzer isn’t in play

14. Dallas Cowboys-Mark Barron-S-Alabama

·       Possible Roy Williams redux with elite college safety lacking elite NFL coverage capacity

15. Philadelphia Eagles-Dontari Poe-DT-Memphis

·       Andy Reid loves talented big men and Poe fits the bill

16. New York Jets-Kendall Wright-WR-Baylor

·       Sanchez needs playmakers to prove his burgeoning mediocrity

17. Cincinnati Bengals-Mevin Ingram-DE-South Carolina

·       High motor, elite athlete tumbles because of T-Rex arms

18. San Diego Chargers-Riley Reiff-OT-Iowa

·       The Lord of No Rings attempts to replace Marcus McNeil after strong arming him out of town

19. Chicago Bears-Michael Brockers-DL-LSU

·       Interest in Brockers is rampant and Bears jump to give Peppers battery mate

20. Tennessee Titans-Quinton Coples-DE-UNC

·       High risk, high reward selection brings back memories of Haynesworth selection

21. Cincinnati Bengals-Dre Kirkpatrick-CB-Alabama

·       Pot smoke worries Bengals less than many and provides elite toughness and size

22. Cleveland Browns-Cordy Glenn-OL-Georgia

·       Overrated lineman lives off reputation and begins late first lineman scramble

23. Detroit Lions-Amini Silatolu, G/OT, Midwestern State

·       Fast riser finally gives Lions a possible option for keeping Stafford upright

24. Pittsburgh Steelers-Courtney Upshaw-DE/OLB-Alabama

·       Steelers bolster aging defense with BPA

25. Denver Broncos-Stephen Hill-WR-Georgia Tech

·       Franchise wants to give Peyton every possible chance to succeed

26. Houston Texans-Peter Konz-OL-Wisconsin

·       Zone blocker to keep Foster running and Schaub upright

27. New England Patriots-Dont’a Hightower-LB-Alabama

·       Papa Billy loves big school players and trusts his buddy Saban

28. Green Bay Packers-Shea McClellin-DE/OLB-Boise State

·       Vision of Clay Matthews redux play in Ted Thompson’s head

29. Baltimore Ravens-Nick Perry-DE/OLB-USC

·       Elite talent should have every reason to thrive in Baltimore locker room of football junkies

30. San Francisco 49ers-Jonathan Martin-OL-Stanford

·       Harbaugh runs shop and selects former player to replace colossal bust Anthony Davis

31. New England Patriots-Whitney Mercilus-DE/OLB-Illinois

·       One year wonder potentially strengthens meager Patriot pass rush

32. New York Giants-Coby Fleener-TE-Stanford

·       No team adheres more consistently to BPA and Fleener could be absolute stud

Smack Smack

2012-04-25T15:32:00.000-04:00

I'm a little late to this but Mike Lombardi gets slapped around a bit by John Oehser.

Oehser hasn't reached Vic level adoration but there's few ways for a football writer to get closer to my heart than calling out Lombardi, who is consistently the most frustrating NFL analyst for me to read.

It's been a nice start to the year for Blaine Gabbert perception-wise. The haircut was good. He got some love from Pete Prisco. When asked about Lombardi's critical comments, he responded with a pitch perfect, "Who's Mike Lombardi?" The schedule even shook out as well as could be expected with early games against Minnesota and Indianapolis. Now all he has to do is be good.

Two mocks coming later today. Guaranteed. One by my good friend Myles, who contributed last year. The other by myself and Carl. Get ready. Each of them are 100% accurate so you're going to want to read them.

-Q

Oh that sweet, sweet, hair...

2012-04-19T17:14:00.000-04:00

He looks great, right? Like a real NFL QB. As my lovely fiance pointed out, he could be straight out of Friday Night Lights (and let's be honest, the Jags are definitely the East Dillon Lions of the NFL. All the way from the big cat mascot to their status of neglected runt of the NFL). I was pretty eager after last season for Gabbert to cut his hair. Despite his claims to the contrary (get to that in a moment), I thought a new, fresher look would be confidence inspiring. I have no idea how his teammates responded but I was pretty much giddy as I forced my friends to check out the new Gabba-Gabba cut.

Now, I don't expect Blaine to come right out and say he's cutting his hair cause people called him wimpy and having beautiful, golden locks only reinforces the perception he lacks toughness (For the record, in my opinion, hair length not correlated to toughness. See Clay Matthews). It wouldn't be smart to be so plain in your reasoning. That said, this quote could've used just a bit of work (via the times-union):

“I’ve had long hair for two years now; it’s comfortable...It’s just freshening up a little bit. Look a little cleaner, look well-kept. That’s about it. I’m the same Blaine. … You are who you are regardless if you have a full beard, which I can’t grow, or you have long hair."

It starts off so strong. Confident. Self-assured. And then...just an acknowledgement that you can't grow a beard, a universal sign of manliness and testosterone. Sigh. So close, Blaine, so close.

Death in Sports, Good Writing

2012-03-22T11:49:00.000-04:00

Brian Phillips on the potential death of a player in sports:

"Athletes fall down all the time. They get tackled. They lose their balance trying to make a move. They hit the ground diving for a loose ball...Every once in a while, though, an athlete goes down and it's … different. There's no good way to describe this, but if you've watched sports long enough, chances are you've seen it once or twice and never want to see it again. A player goes down, and almost immediately there's this miserable, crawly sense that something is different; something is wrong. It's a sensation, a sort of tingle that spreads from the other players to the fans in the stadium to the people watching at home. Oh no. You can tell when this has happened because within about 10 seconds, no one at the game remembers which team they're cheering for. Fans on both sides look on with their hands clasped in front of their faces. The top half of the player disappears under a dome of medics. You stare at the player's foot and will it to move. Did it just twitch? Please get up, please get up, no one is supposed to die playing sports, please get up …"

Not Jags related but definitely worth a read.

Not yet. Apprently.

2012-03-21T17:54:00.000-04:00

The deal has hit a hang up and the Jags are back in the mix. The PFT article says the Rams are still interested but an ESPN article released a few minutes ago corrects that earlier report. It appears (just from reading the coverage) the Jaguars may be the only remaining team vying for Tebow's services. We shall see.

It wouldn't really be Tebow if there wasn't a dramatic finish.

-Q

Tebow to the Jets.

2012-03-21T13:59:00.000-04:00

First, I was wrong (always like to lead with that). Tebow isn't coming to the Jags, at least not for a while. We also know now that the Jaguars do not think Tebow was worth the price of a fourth round draft pick and converting a 6th to a 7th. I do think it should be noted Tebow is probably in a better situation. The general speculation is that the Jets want him to run a specific "Wildcat" package. Granted, Mularkey could have put together a package similar to how he used Kordell Stewart when he was in Pittsburgh but there's no denying the primary reason for the Jaguar's interest was business-related. For the Jets, he just a football player. No franchise resting on his broad shoulders.

Best wishes to Tebow. I honestly think this will be better for his career. That said, something tells me we'll hear from him again.
-Q

Might as well get ahead of it...

2012-03-20T10:49:00.001-04:00

I posted yesterday on the developing Tim Tebow saga and have been consuming rapid amounts of media ever since. I'll post a round up below but figured I might as well go ahead and make a prediction as well. I think the Jaguars are going to do this (trade a pick for Tebow) and honestly part of me feels they have to. Not because it's a good idea (see yesterday's post), but much in the same way John Elway threw Tebow out there hoping to end all the hoopla (Whoops), this may need to happen. I do want to make a few points...

- The idea that Tebow can be brought in simply for competition is willfully naive. We all know that as soon as Tebow is on a roster, the Tebowmaniacs will be going Tebow-crazy demanding that he play. If Tebow was any other player, then yes, you could bring him in as one of your 80 camp guys, and let him compete to be one of the best 53. He is not any other guy. This is why he sells tickets and jerseys. The entire idea of bringing him in rests on the idea that he is special, that practice won't reveal his greatness, and he must be played in crunch-time. Tebow followers have a faith in their guy that will not be defeated by a mere 32 general managers opinions. Ok, so that's a bit of an exaggeration, which leads to...

- We do not know Gene Smith's opinion of Tebow, outside of knowing that Smith didn't think Tebow worthy of the 10th overall pick in the 2010 draft (blasphemy I know!). I made this point yesterday but it has been stated as fact (see here and listen here) that Smith isn't interested in Tebow. He hasn't, to my knowledge, said this publicly. He may have, behind closed doors, indicated that he wasn't interested but until Tebow is a free agent or the asking price is more than speculation, we can only go on what his actions reveal. Presumably, Smith has some grade on Tebow. If that grade is a fifth round pick, this may all work out.

Here's a roundup of Tebow stories if you're interested:
-Podcast with Bill Simmons (Note: Some Jaguars fans may find this infuriating. I did.)
-Gene Frenette's article
-Tania Ganguli's post on Tebow
-Tania's on Khan's statement
-John Oesher's Tebow centric Ask Vic
-Mike Florio on ten under the radar Tebow locations
-Michael David Smith on the possibility of Green Bay (as you might suspect, there's pleanty at PFT on Tebow. I just thought these two were most interesting)
-Darrne Rovell of CNBC says Tebow to Jax would be biggest offseason move

If you see any others you think worthy, let me know.
-Q

We need to talk about Tim.

2012-03-19T18:06:00.003-04:00

I did not foresee the downside of Peyton Manning's release. I was all "the Wicked Forehead is Dead."

If you haven't heard, Peyton Manning is preparing to sign with the Denver Broncos. Consequently, the Denver Broncos are either going to trade or release Tim Tebow. Thus, a very real downside has emerged for Jaguars fans who prefer their football team make decisions based on watching football, rather than marketing/bullshit. There's a couple lost seasons and the specter of a Gene Smith resignation looming in the air so let's work through this a bit...

1) Presumably, Gene Smith is not interested in Tim Tebow. We don't actually know this. He spoke highly of Tebow before the 2010 draft. He may have been prepared to move into the bottom of round one or take him in round two if Josh McDaniels hadn't jumped up. If Gene Smith, genuinely and without an owner's meddling hand, believes that acquiring Tebow is in the best interest of the Jags, then my feelings on the move shift somewhat (although I still think it's a bad idea).

2) Let's assume the Jaguars do want to acquire Tebow. Regardless of the reason (marketing ploy or winning football games), I think they should be very hesitant to give up anything for him, even a low round draft pick. There are already reports that the Broncos would most likely release Tebow if they couldn't find a trade partner. Charlie Casserly, former Houston Texans GM, said he'd "be surprised if he went for much better than a fifth rounder." That seems cheap but Jaguars fans have been clamoring for a lot of free agents this year but low and behold many of those guys could've been had for a fifth rounder just a few years ago, Brandon Carr (CB, just signed a deal worth $50M) and Carl Nicks (G, just signed a deal worth $47.5M), most notably.

3) Although cheap, Tebow is an extremely risky proposition for the medium and long term trajectory of the franchise. If the Jaguars bring him in and he fails, that will almost certainly mean the end of the Gene Smith era, and depending on Khan's reaction to the fans abandonment of Tebow, the end of the Jags in Jax (and if he loses, the Tebowmaniacs will abandon the team. Sure, they'll make some excuses about the WR corp on their way out but excuses don't pay the bills). Tebowmaniacs would justifiably want a minimum of two seasons with Tebow at the starting helm, so failure probably means three to four seasons by the time a new QB is brought in and developed. If Gabbert fails this season, however, the Jags would be free to move on next year.

4) If Tebow is forced on Gene Smith, I think he'll resign after the draft (apparently this is rumored already, although BCC sort of dismantles the logic. Unfortunately, logic doesn't always win out in these situations). Although losing Gene Smith would be a blow to the franchise, worse, it would signal the Jaguars were not pursuing the model of the Steelers, Eagles, Giants, or Patriots (consistent winners with hands-off owners) but instead striving to be more like the perennial off-season champion Dallas Cowboys or Washington Redskins. Even worse, while those teams at least win the off-season, providing their fans something akin to a cheap high, the Jags would more likely resemble the Dolphins or Bucs, low revenue teams who consistently have trouble attracting top-notch front office talent.

5) Now, there is certainly a chance that Tebow will continue to develop, matching those intangibles with some real quarterbacking skills, but even the most devout Tebow believers have their doubts. Unfortunately the benefits to Tebow’s success would most likely be fleeting (fans that come with a player, leave with that player. The Colts are about to experience this). More so, Tebow’s popularity will ultimately ride on his ability to continue winning and the spoils of Tebow winning are not likely to be much greater than the benefits to winning generally. If the Jags can win without sacrificing their institutional integrity, the franchise and their place in Jacksonville will ultimately be stronger for it.

-Q

Good Writing

2012-01-13T12:14:00.000-05:00

A very nice piece of writing from David Fleming. Jags fans complaining about Gene Smith, note where these two played college ball.

-Quinton

Why Jags fans should be proud Mike Florio is pooping on Mike Mularkey?

2012-01-12T09:50:00.006-05:00

Mike Mularkey, new Jaguars Head coach. Photo courtesy of The Palm Beach Post

Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk wrote a little piece basically calling out the Jags, saying they should've waited and interviewed Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy.

The piece is odd to say the least. His criticism of the Jags hire, Mike Mularkey, is based on a poor offensive showing in the Falcons last game, when Mularkey was offensive coordinator, and the fact that the Bucs, who've played Mularkey twice a year for the last few years, reportedly didn't interview him. Mularkey has been coaching in the NFL for 18 years. If he's worthy of being a head coach, it has essentially nothing to do with his last game.

As to the Bucs criticisms, I have no idea why the Jaguars should be modeling themselves on the Buccaneers search. Raheem Morris, their last head coach, was so clearly overwhelmed by the job that the Bucs seem to be reacting and reaching for a safer, more established coach. I think that is a fine and sensible strategy. It should have no impact on the Jaguars.

I don't know if McCoy or Mularkey will be a good head coach. If Mularkey doesn’t work out, I'm sure PFT will link back to their initial criticism. You know what they won't link back to? Their reaction to the hire of Mike McCarthy, the Green Bay Packer's head coach, in 2006. They described him as not being “worthy of a promotion” and described his previous experience as “six years of relative mediocrity.” They insinuated that Green Bay’s GM Ted Thompson was only hiring McCarthy to preserve power and control. Heck, in the same piece they call Sean Payton Bill Parcell’s “biatch.” Well, five years later, those are two of the most respected head coaches in the NFL, and the two odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. Florio is a well connected guy and I enjoy his site but his criticism of a head coach should be a badge of honor.

The two archived PFT pieces are here and here.

-Quinton

No love for Jags D?

2011-10-03T17:14:00.000-04:00

It's been pretty quiet around here, mostly due to work but also its just hard to write when things are looking so dour. Anywho, I swear Josh Alper is going out of his way here to not praise the Jaguars defense. I'll try to get my thoughts on this weekend's game up tomorrow.

-Q

Concensus picks

2011-09-23T16:31:00.000-04:00

So, in my last post, at the very bottom, I noted that I couldn't find anyone who picked the Jaguars against an 0-2 team, which surprised me quite a bit. They were the consensus loser.

I looked at three major websites, NFL.com, cbssports.com and espn.com. It made me curious what the consensus record was over the first two weeks of the year. I learned a few things:

Consensus is pretty common. There have been 32 games so far this season. 8, or 25% of them, have had a consensus pick. That's 19 analysts, accuscore (a computer prediction), as well as the majority of ESPN's pick em' group, all picking the same team to win.
Furthermore, they do well, but not exceptionally well, in these games, going 6-2 (Two upsets were Cincinnati over Cleveland week one and Tennessee over Baltimore week two). That is better than than their overall record (excluding the consensus games), which is approximately 61%, but still strikes me as surprisingly little improvement considering it's a consensus.

Not sure what to make of this but it means at a minimum no one should worry too much even if literally everyone is picking against you. There's still a 25% chance you'll win, and that doesn't take into account the quality of opponent, which at least for the Jags this week, would have to improve the odds.

It's a pretty small sample size, so I may track it a little more in the next few weeks, but something to chew on. Happy football this weekend

-Q

Blaine Gabbert. Gene Smith. It's all happening

2011-09-23T15:49:00.001-04:00

This is it. Or at least the start of it. Blaine Gabbert's ascension to the starting quarterback position quickly shifts the Jaguars from a team that is building, putting players in place, improving, to a team that is to be evaluated on performance, or at a minimum clear signs of improvement. The pieces are in place. For all of us Gene Smith believers (I fully count myself), there will be no where left to hide.

Not that winning is immediately necessary but the responsibility for wins and losses or at a minimum the trajectory of those wins and losses is now squarely Smith's. With Gabbert now starting, each position group features at least one significant contributor that Smith drafted or was a prominent free agent (Quick list. RB: Karim, TE: Miller, OL: Monroe/Britton/Rackley, WR: Thomas/Shorts, DL: Knighton/Alualu, LB:Poz/Session, CB: Cox, S: Landry. I'm sure I missed someone but you get the idea).

I normally feel relatively confident about my read on the team but last week's loss shook me up pretty good. Not the loss itself as much as the total ineptitude. With that in mind, I'm going to run through a kind of upside/downside feeling going forward, somewhat on the season but really, more generally:

Upside

The poor play could be limited to Luke McCown. This is, in many ways, best case scenario for the Jaguars. Good QB play hides many faults on a team (just ask the Colts) and poor QB play can make many aspects, even a defense, look pretty bad (Interceptions returned to the one, safeties, etc.).
The Jaguars current defensive ranking of 5th (yards/game) is legitimate. They continue to improve and cement themselves as on the top defenses in the NFL.
Eugene Monroe, and the offensive line, continue to play at an elite level. This enables Blaine Gabbert to comfortably stay in the pocket, improving his chance of success, as well as ameliorating what appeared to be a significant concern, poor pocket presence, during the preseason.
The Jaguars WR corp posses more deep threat ability than originally thought. These hidden skills were covered up either by a QB with a strong arm but not particularly adept at throwing deep (Mr. Garrard) or a somewhat limited-arm QB (Mr. McCown). I'm trying to present these reasonably neutrally but I have to comment that this seems like the biggest reach. Here's hoping though...

Downside

Blaine Gabbert never improves upon his physical talent. This is a pretty bad scenario. Presumably, the Jaguars would go at least the next two drafts without a new quarterback attempting to develop Gabbert. They'd squander the remaining prime of Maurice Jones-Drew's career. Even if the majority of other Smith draft picks turn out well, by the time the next QB emerges, let's say 5 or 6 years from now, many of those players are either moving on due to contract expiration or on the backside of their careers. Furthermore, one bad pick would endanger Gene Smith, causing fans to push for a change at the top.
The true quality of the Jaguars defense is measured by their points per game ranking, 16th. While this is certainly a step in the right direction, and a nice improvement from the abysmal ranking of 27th last year, it leaves the Jaguars with the hardest work yet to be done, but without an obvious means of getting there. The safety play was so poor last season and linebacker play so uninspiring that they presented potentially easy fixes. Resources aren't infinite though so if after dropping one bagillion dollars (I'm approximating), the defense is only mildly improved, the work left is more difficult to diagnose and there isn't much left to throw at fixing it. Improvement will be harder to identify and more costly.
Monroe continues to struggle with consistency. More generally, a pattern emerges for Smith draft picks. Initially promising players fail to develop into guys who can consistently dominate one on one matches n a week-in, week-out basis.
The wide receivers continue to struggle getting separation, hindering the development of Gabbert and costing him in terms of fan support (Jaguars fans seem particularly rough and quick in their evaluation of quarterbacks) and confidence, with a truly worse case effect being long-term damage to an otherwise promising talent.

I'm reasonably optimistic going forward but that's built more on faith than anything else. It would be nice if one of Smith's draft picks emerged as a legitimately dominant player this season (Here's to Knighton or Alualu). I do think the Jaguars defense has played better than the general perception (32 points in the largest media market will do that).

Not surprisingly, the perceived confirmation of what the national media already knew about the Jaguars resulted in a litany of smug, over confident put downs of the team. Even the New York Times got in on it, with an analogy to a third-world dictator no less, here's Mike Tanier on Gabbert taking over:

"Gabbert had to wait for his chance behind the ineffective journeyman Luke McCown, who replaced David Garrard, who was released just days before the season opener in a money-saving move. It is the kind of disorderly succession we normally associate with island nations ruled by individuals with the official title of “strong man,” but this is really how the Jaguars conduct business."

Even discounting the presentation of opinion as fact (Garrard's release may or may not have had anything to do with his salary), that's pretty rough.

With the prognosis looking somewhat grim (I literally haven't seen anyone pick the Jags against an 0-2 team. The consensus kind of blew my mind), I'll leave you with this Freakonomics analysis on the accuracy of national football prognosticators. How do you think they did? (Clue: They suck.)

-Q

Reaction to Week 1, 2011

2011-09-12T17:06:00.000-04:00

The Luke McCown era has begun. (I wanted to go with an exclamation point but just couldn't do it)

Here's a funny thing about rooting for a team that is as transparent, and frankly, as honest as the Jaguars; expectations are well adjusted. You can generally believe Gene Smith when he says this player is playing well, or that he's happy or disappointed with a unit. So when he kept saying the team was alright, and viewing the preseason as largely a success, Jaguars' fans should have believed him, kept the faith, yada, yada. Now, fans being fans, many panicked, and I can't say my expectations for the season weren't adjusted downward with the release of David Garrard. That said, I think this game should have fallen comfortably on the optimistic side of expectations but nothing too astonishing.

The major concerns going into the game were for wide receiver and the offensive line. The message from the team was that the wide receivers were good enough and the offensive line was talented and would be able to run the football. These things were true. Luke McCown was an obvious concern, and although the team has been more hesitant in setting expectations for him, the perception was certainly that he was David Garrard without the ups and downs. Coincidentally (or not), McCown's passer rating of 91.5 was a notch higher than Garrard's 90.8 from last season (To be fair, Garrard's running ability is an asset not captured by this stat).

This was a very fortunate game to start the season off. I don't think the Titans will be very good. More so, they play to the Jaguars strengths. They run the ball well and don't pass particularly well. Matt Hasselbeck isn't the player he once was and I can't think of a good precedent for a player bouncing back from a holdout to carry his team the way Chris Johnson will need to carry this Titans team. Not a bold prediction but I imagine we'll be seeing Jake Locker on Christmas Eve when the teams meet again.

...onto next week...my initial reaction to the David Garrard release was that the team would pull together for this week, play reasonably well, but there would be a let down week 2. Gotta say, I don't think that's going to happen. Just reading the quotes but the team seems to have moved on fairly quickly, and there just a touch of that no-one-believes-in-us-still vibe. On the plus side, I don't think this is going to change the national perception of the Jaguars one bit. That's largely due to 1) Expectations for the Titans were low 2) The score was relatively close and 3) No one saw the game. If you really want the Jags on NFL Tonight, this isn't so hot, but if all you really want the Jags to win, then I think this, combined with the Jets winning in week one, bodes well.

I know this is pretty fluffy so I'll try to bring more substance as the season wears on. Hey, I've been holding out, too

-Q

Great work by Jags beat writers

2011-09-08T11:36:00.002-04:00

I sometimes question the value of beat writers but Vito and Tania's knowledge and coverage of this situation have been superb. The national media has repeatedly misjudged the situation, who the decisions makers were and what this says about Blaine Gabbert. They did pick up on the poor timing of the decision but that was largely done by pivoting off of this Vito Stellino piece. I think the tone of that piece was appropriate as well. It was one of disappointment in Gene Smith rather than over-the-top, misdirected finger pointing.

Here's a roundup of the latest coverage:

I'll probably have more at some point, especially on the mindset of the team, but at this point it's probably best to follow the advice of the namesake: Watch and see what happens.

-Q

Jaguars to release Garrard

2011-09-06T15:47:00.000-04:00

Wow. I'm surprised. Here's the initial report from Jay Glazer of Fox Sports. Here's PFT.

There's a line at the end of the PFT article that reads "It says a lot that Gabbert couldn’t step up to win the starting job, and the Jaguars still made this move." That is somewhat vague but I think it's a little misguided. To me, this bodes well for the Jaguars opinion of Gabbert. I think it means they'll move to Gabbert sooner rather than later so you might as well with the cheaper bridge. Presumably, they think McCown is approximately the player Garrard is for a fraction of the cost. If Garrard had been on the roster on opening day he would have been guaranteed his eight million dollar salary (due to being a vested veteran).

I hope this doesn't cost Del Rio the team. I'll be interested to read the player's reactions.
-Q

Bill Barnwell doesn't know how to use the internet

2011-09-06T13:00:00.000-04:00

That is the only explanation for how someone could write a preview this bad. I'm obviously a week late on this but it's so egregiously uninformed that it demands a short comment. I'm sure he'd chalk this smattering of words imitating an argument up to living in Vegas and not caring about the Jaguars but that's really no excuse for not doing your job.

Austen Lane (or as Bill Barnwell prefers Austin Lane) is not the starting defensive end for the Jaguars. Jeremy Mincey is. Mincey had five sacks while starting eight games last year. Which leads to..
4 sacks in 8 games isn't earth shattering but if Kampman had kept that pace up, he'd have finished with 8 sacks, the same number as Julius Peppers. I'm not high on Kampman but Barnwell was stretching to call Kampman a bust. He blew out his other ACL and predicting injuries is...what's the word...impossible. So let's not pretend that was a terrible signing.
He is either unfamiliar that the Jaguars practice or intuitively disagrees with Best Available Player drafting. If Gene Smith thinks Gabbert is going to be an elite quarterback, it would be insanely dumb to draft a defensive player for improving an 8-8 team for one year. Quoting Bill Barnwell: "The get-rich-quick way to rebuild is to come up with a franchise quarterback." They're trying, Bill. They're trying.
It also might be worth pointing out that they did draft a defensive player last year, Tyson Alualu, who has, without exception, been described as dominant in camp this year. Hell, even Peter King noticed.
Will Rackley has won the left guard job. That's not an if. It had already happened when you published this preview. (Maybe this is like those fantasy magazine where you had to go to press in June....No... you say this is still the internet..just not paying attention...ok, got it. /Doing best Bill Simmons)
Cecil Shorts won't be good because of his name. No comment.

The irony is, I like Bill Barnwell. I was looking forward to this preview. I generally find him to be insightful and interesting. I'm not sure if this was just life getting in the way (he did move recently), apathy towards the Jaguars, or his normal M.O that I'm only becoming aware of because this is my team. I can handle the poor arguments, like focusing half the preview on the draft of the previous GM, but factual errors (not even counting spelling here) about who is starting are well below what I've come to expect out of him or Grantland. There are arguments to be made that cut much deeper (the offensive line play has been particularly worrisome, which in turn leads fans to worry about Gene Smith's drafting) but you'd have to care about getting the facts right first.

Who knows. Maybe this is the year the year the national media pegs the Jaguars correctly and they bottom out but it won't be because of the reasons Barnwell sites.

-Q