After Kick2Kick reviews each club, we will give their full season 2010 predictions like we did last year. If you would like to review a team or something else, please contact us.

Jared Rivers has the potenial and played 20 games last year, now its time to get back to his form in 2004, where he won the "Rising Star Award"

What Happened Last Year

Off field the club grew with their debt being slashed with several debt raisers inspired by the battle of cancer by president Jim Stynes. On top of that the only other good news was the debut of Liam Jurrah and the recruitment of Jack Trengove and Tom Scully due to them finishing last.

The New Season

Most of the ‘experts’ have Melbourne finishing 15th at best but some think they will do better than that and will finish as high as around 12th. To do this they need to develop a forward line as Russel Robertson last years leading goal kicker has been pushed out while Liam Jurrah (who kicked 20 goals last year) will now miss 16 weeks with a shoulder. So who is left to kick goals for them?

The pressure now will be on Matthew Bate, Ricky Petterd, Brad Miller, Jarred Rivers and Colin Sylvia to kick 12-13 goals a week for a win. Can it happen? Only time will tell but I do not see it happening. What could help is playing Mark Jamar down forward who kicked 5 goals against Carlton in round 21.

Likely Finish:  15th – 16th

Players to Watch

Jack Trengove and Tom Scully – For the first year or two they will be compared to each other like Riewoldt and Kosi for St Kilda. However these kids have talent and expect them to play 10-15 games this year and they will show why they will be the life blood of Melbourne for the next 10 years.

Matthew Bate -To me he is one of the few shinning lights along with Jurrah down forward for Melbourne. Towards the end of last season, he played more midfield but with Jurrah missing for 16 weeks and Watts struggling with a sore back, will he have to play forward more than midfield? Either way he has heart and is someone to watch.

Jack Grimes - Last year he only played 11 games but it was worth watching, just ask Dreamteamers who had him in their team. He played a lot in the backline last year but as he goes on, expect him to play more midfield.

Bench Warmers

Daniel Bell - Was recruited back in 2002 but has never been a regular best 22 player, a lot has to do with injuries as he only got to play 3 games last year with shoulder and fingers issues. 2010 has not got any better with another shoulder that will see him miss up to 8 weeks. Can he fit back in the side when fit? Depends on injuries and performance by his team mates. Lets hope for his sake he does.

Paul Johnson - To me I cannot see him and Jamar playing in the same team with Stefan Martin playing a lot in the ruck last year and showing some good athleticism and promise. Jamar to me is slightly in front but Paul Johnson can play forward and must show something down forward or on the ball to stay on the list.

Need to Improve

Jack Watts - Harsh I know but he is a number one pick and you have to live with the pressure if you want to be successful, not many have (exactly how many ‘true’ stars are #1 picks?) but he does have the patience off coach Dean Bailey which will help, but the fans?

Brad Miller and Jarred Rivers – Both are similar players, who are big bodies in a young team who should be a part of the spin where the rest of the team can be built around them. They have shown bits and pieces since their debuts in 2003/4 but the reality is they should be playing CHF/ FF and  CHB which will allow Watts, Bate and others to play around them.

Your Thoughts

So who will kick the goals for Melbourne so they can get off the bottom of the ladder? Was it a good decision to extend Dean Bailey’s contract or is he just warming the seat for someone else?

Related K2K Posts

• Essendon’s 2010 Season Preview (4)
• West Coast Eagles 2010 Season Preview (5)
• Sydney’s 2010 Season Preview (3)
• Richmond’s 2010 Season Preview (9)
• Collingwood 2010 Season Preview (12)

Both teams have named experienced lineups for Saturday’s clash at Etihad Stadium.

For the Doggies – Daniel Giansiracusa and Ben Hudson have been named, while for the Saints in come Nick Riewoldt and Brendon Goddard.

St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs have looked fairly solid during previous NAB Cup games in what should be a close, hotly contested match.

Barry Hall has continued to fit in comfortably at Doggieland like a well worn pair of slippers, contributing 6 goals in a winning performance.

Last week the Western Bulldogs got over the line in a thriller by 2 points over a much improved Port Adelaide side, with Barry ‘Don’t poke the Bear’ Hall dominating the contested ball up in the Dog’s forward 50.

Brad Johnson will be wishing he could get his hands on some silverware, even if it is a preseason GF.

The Saints meanwhile, had a convincing win over Fremantle pumping them by a healthy 70 points.

It wasn’t spectacular, but when St Kilda needed to they turned on the ignition switch and showed the huge gap between a top team in the AFL (St Kilda) and a certain cellar dweller in the Dockers.

Champion Bulldog Brad Johnson will be missing from the side with a calf strain, which would be a bit of a blow to him if the Western bulldogs get up and win their first Grand Final in 40 years.

Daniel Giansiracusa will take over the skipper duties.

For the Saints, Lenny Hayes will be also be sidelined due to a calf strain and Michael Gardiner is still recovering from a jarred knee.

Jason Blake will slot in to take the ruck duties for the red, black and white.

It should be a great game as both teams look to be taking the NAB Cup game seriously -and why not….there’s been only dust collecting in both the Bulldog’s and Saint’s trophy cabinet for a long time.

Who will win? It’s always hard with these pre season games and not much will separate these two teams on the day, but I’ve just got the feeling St Kilda can curb the Barry factor enough to get over the line.

St Kilda by 4 points

Challenge Games (Local Time):

Friday March 12th

• Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn at Southport, 3.30pm
• Carlton v Adelaide at Visy Park, 4pm
• Sydney Swans v North Melbourne at Narrandera, 7pm

Saturday March 13th

• Melbourne v West Coast at Casey Fields, 2pm
• Richmond v Essendon at Morwell, 3.30pm
• Port Adelaide v Collingwood at Mt Gambier, 4pm
• Fremantle v Geelong Cats at Subiaco, 4.30pm

Your NAB Grand Final Tips & Observations

So what are your tips & observations for the Grand Final of the 2010 NAB Cup? Do you agree with Johnnytruent? if yes or no please post your tips and observations about the NAB competition in the comments section.

Related K2K Posts

• 2010 NAB Round 3 Tips (6)
• 2010 NAB Round 1 tips pt2 (13)
• Saints 2010 Dreamteam Preview (0)
• 2010 NAB Semi Finals Wrapup (0)
• Bulldogs 2010 Season Preview (25)

To answer the first question, to improve on 20 wins the odds are 87.5% on average to win 22 games. The second answer comes down to human nature of the players & thus far it’s been unaffected gaining entry into the NAB Cup final without full strength line ups.

The strength of the Saints list saw an average of 1340 points per player in 2009 with an average price in 2010 of around $327,700.

Former Bulldogs midfielder Farren Ray has emerged from a bit player to a key player for the Saints and racks up the Dreamteam points.

Best Buys

Jason Gram (defence) $406,300 – Gram averaged 91.9 from 21 games with that weird thigh injury (possible suspension) costing him all 22 games. Gram racked up 30 or more disposals 5 times with a career high 17 kicks .vs. Port Adelaide in round 5 & equal career highs of 34 disposals & 22 kicks .vs. Adelaide in round 16 & 6 tackles .vs. Adelaide in round 2.

Gram ranked 2nd in inside 50s & inside 50s per game, 9th in kicks & 15th in kicks per game. A small discount of $9,600, but Gram gets plenty of the ball.

Farren Ray (midfield) $393,500 – It’s going to be tough to find a Saints special, so we’ll start with Ray who averaged 89.5 in 2009. he racked up 30 or more disposals twice including a career high of 39 disposals, 19 kicks, 20 handballs & 13 marks .vs. Adelaide in round 16. He also had a career high 10 tackles .vs. Sydney in round 18.

With the likes of Montagna, Dal Santo & Hayes too high, Ray would be your 1st option for a Saint with an estimated $26,600 discount thrown in.

Sam Fisher (defence) $373,300 – A combination of a tall defender that gets plenty of the footy, Fisher averaged 84.9 in 2009 & racked up 30 or more disposals twice saving his career high of 42 disposals & 25 kicks .vs. Collingwood in the out of scoring qualifying final.

Fisher ranked 5th in marks & 8th in marks per game. Marks are always combined with a disposal so those stats count for a lot in this game with an estimated $15,600 discount.

Adam Schneider (forward) $348,000 – The Swans didn’t want him & how they must be feeling now. Averaging 79 .2 as a small forward, Schneider’s best game was 24 disposals & 11 handballs .vs. Brisbane in round 9.

With a ranking of 18th in tackles, Schneider comes with an estimated $21,000 discount & should get plenty of crumbing chances.

Jason Blake (defence) $320,600 – Averaging 73.0, Blake is also used as a ruckman if he’s called upon to do so. His 1 game of 30 disposals or more were career highs of 31 disposals, 16 kicks & 15 handballs .vs. Western Bulldogs in round 17.

Blake ranked 4th in marks & 9th in marks per game which could be classed as an equal to Fisher but with the lower price tag & an estimated $43,300 discount.

Stephen Milne (forward) $326,500 – Milne’s averaging 74.3 & arguably isn’t a popular choice amongst Dreamteam coaches when he comes with his own lowlight reel.

But, Milne had career highs of 26 disposals, 12 handballs & 11 marks .vs. Melbourne in round 22. Milne ranked 13th in goals, 14th in goals contributed, 19th in goals per game & 20th in goals contributed per game. Like him or hate him, his stats are ok & he has an estimated $12,300 discount.

Justin Koschitzke (forward) $306,300 – Arguably as maligned as Milne, Kosi averages 69.7 & never really kicked ahead in bounds like his forward partner in Riewoldt apart from his career high 6 goal haul .vs. Nth Melbourne in round 11, the day the Kangaroos were left short.

Kosi ranked 12th in marks & goals & 17th in goals per game whilst coming with an estimated $21,700 discount.

Risky Bargain Buys

Andrew McQualter (forward) $283,900 – McQualter is on the rise with an average of 64.6 in 2009 with career highs in all categories bar goals in a breakout year.

McQualter ranked 12th in goal assists & 19th in tackles with an average of 4.7 per game. That’s around 16-20 points. There’s also an estimated $32,000 discount so grab a cheap forward who’s going places.

Steven Baker (defence) $263,000 – Averaged 60.0 per game & he’s one of the most annoying yapping taggers in the AFL. Not a bad average if you’re going to run your mouth off. Baker racked up 30 or more disposals once in his career highs of 32 disposals, 18 kicks & 13 marks in round 16.

Baker comes with an estimated $51,000 discount so have a think about it for those who need a cheap defender who still gets points.

Michael Gardiner (ruck) $279,900 – Arguably the career saving comeback of 2009 highlighted by “that” mark .vs. Geelong. Gardiner averaged 63.9 & is ranked 9th in hitouts & 10th in hitouts per game. A small $9,700 discount awaits & he’s a good price for a top 10 ruckman.

St Kilda Top 10 2009

1. Leigh Montagna (midfield) $509,100
2. Nick Riewoldt (forward) $468,100
3. Nick Dal Santo (midfield) $457,200
4. Brendon Goddard (defence) $455,700
5. Lenny Hayes (midfield) $478,500
6. Farren Ray (midfield) $393,500
7. Jason Gram (defence) $403,600
8. Sam Fisher (defence) $373,300
9. Sam Gilbert (defence) $391,500
10. Adam Schneider (forward) $348,000

Your Feedback

Will you be having any St Kilda players in your Dreamteam this year? Last year they along with Geelong where the only team to have more than one player in the top 10 most Dreamteam points scored.

Have you found a cheap St kilda player who can be the steal or will you only choose the premiums like Montagna, Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Goddard and Hayes?

Related K2K Posts

• 2010 NAB Grand Final Tips (1)
• Richmond’s 2010 Dreamteam Preview (0)
• Port Power’s 2010 Dreamteam Preview (0)
• Kangaroo’s 2010 Dreamteam Preview (4)
• Melbourne’s 2010 Dreamteam Preview (0)

After Kick2Kick reviews each club, we will give their full season 2010 predictions like we did last year. If you would like to review a team or something else, please contact us.

David Hille returns from an ACL but where does he now play with Ryder staring in the ruck last year

What Happened Last Year

The 2009 season was a breakthrough year for Matthew Knights young list & hopefully it silenced some the critics. The Bombers finished in the finals with 10 ½ wins from 22 games, unheard of in the 16 team format. What’s more significant is that they played 11 of a possible 14 games against the other top 8 teams.

The New Season

In 2010, that number rises to 12 in what can only be described as the “superleague” draw.

As a result, I give them the Bombers a 46.1% chance of winning all their games. The breakdown of the 22 games for this season is as follows:

• 5 games @ a 75% chance
• 10 games @ a 50% chance
• 7 games @ a 50% chance

Another problem for this season is the loss of Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas & Adam McPhee. Can the Bombers replace these three players quickly?? The answer could lie partly in the slowing of Lloyd & the form of Lucas in 2009, both of which didn’t excite me very much. Last season saw an emergence of the new style of the Bombers without the reliance of the power forward.

Likely Finish: 8th to 12th (depending how Eagles improve, how far the Blues fall & how much the Hawks whine about injuries again).

Players to Watch

Heath Hocking – We can mention the likes of Stanton, Watson & Winderlich, but players like Hocking need to step it up. Averaging 18.2 disposals, Hocking now slips our best 10 players with the retirements & departures. Hocking is the Bombers No 3 in handballs & No 6 in tackles. Given a full season, I believe Hocking can become one of our great midfield defending type Generals over time.

Patrick Ryder – As we all know, Ryder came into his own on Anzac Day eventually forcing Collingwood to look at its own ruck stocks. Name me another ruckman in the AFL that can have 424 hitouts & be the No 1 tackler for the team??

Sam Lonergan – Another who needs a full season after averaging 14.5 disposals per game in 2009. Lonergan is good enough around the packs to be in the top 5 midfield for the Bombers with defensive pressure now looking to be slowly implemented into the game plan.

Courtney Dempsey – Dempsey can amaze you in the way this youngster takes on the biggest & the best forwards after basically being thrown into the deep end. Indigenous players are mainly known for their speed & “magic”, but Dempsey has provided us with something different not seen in this type of footballer since I can remember.

Brent Prismall – Prismall came back to play 13 games in 2009 after that knee operation & may have taken a while to find his feet in his new club. Could he be the midfielder that flies under the radar for the Bombers in 2010 now that he has no excuse albeit that his knee holds out?? Or, did the Cats see something in him that we didn’t in terms of trading him? The answer now lies in Prismall’s hands.

Bench Warmers

Jarryd Atkinson / Leroy Jetta – Fast getting impatient with this on the field / out injured indigenous tandem that was a brain child of the old drafting failures of the previous coaching regime. The sooner Knights is rid of these experimental type disasters, the better.

Darcy Daniher – Someone must believe in not insulting former greats of the club for that’s the only reason I believe Daniher is on the list.

Tom Bellchambers – David Hille is back for now & Ryder is our No 1 choice. Probably only kept in case of Hille breaking down or failing, but Jason Laycock has been hot in pre-season.

Need to Improve

Mark McVeigh - Found himself in being suspended by the club after Matthew Knights would’ve liked him to stand up for the youngsters as a senior example.

Bashar Houli – Came to Essendon and fame arguably more for his background than his talent alone & Knights has seen through this. Needs to prove he can play for the team & not for the publicity.

Your Thoughts

Will Essendon play finals this year or will the hard fixtures of playing 12 times against last years top 8 teams added onto the fact that Lloyd and Lucas are missing will mean another lean year for the Dons? How will Jobe Watson handle being the captain? Where will Hille & Ryder play? Lots of questions but do you have the answers?

Related K2K Posts

• Melbourne’s 2010 Season Preview (0)
• West Coast Eagles 2010 Season Preview (5)
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After Kick2Kick reviews each club, we will give their full season 2010 predictions like we did last year. If you would like to review a team or something else, please contact us.

For the Eagles to get back into the finals, he needs to get his attitude and body right.

What Happened Last Year

Last year was separated into different segments with an average first few weeks they sat in and out of the top 8 and then they lost 9 out of 10 weeks and the club had to deflect talk on tanking. They responded the best way possible with four wins in the last five weeks including an away win against the Bulldogs and finalist Essendon.

Injuries to Daniel Kerr and Dean Cox became a blessing in disguise as it forced Nit Nat and young midfielders Chris Masten, Tom Swift & Adam Selwood to take on the mantle of number one ruckman and midfielder. Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy have helped answered the biggest West Coast problem for a number of years including their premiership year which is their forward line. LeCras would have been an All Australian if he played for a Victorian club and Josh showed why he was a number four pick a few years ago.

The New Season

Loyal fans are looking at the Eagles to bounce back into the top 8 but for this to happen, a lot needs to go right starting with Daniel Kerr and Dean Cox who need big years, Nit Nat is only in his second year and he cannot be expected to carry the ruck duties.

If Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy mirror or improve their last year and with Quinten Lynch playing the one position at Full Forward and either Nit Nat or Dean Cox resting up forward, it now looks like a forward line potentially that could kick a winning goal. They still need a small crumbing forward but that gives a chance to several rookies in Oakley-Nicholas, Lewis Broome, Ryan Neates and Gerrick Weedon.

Likely Finish:  8th – 10th

Players to Watch

Mark LeCras – Kicked 58 goals from 21 games and was a surprise to everyone except the loyal Eagles fans with his poise, goal nous and straight kicking (over 60% accuracy rate).

Nit Nat - Nic Naitanui or Nit Nat (as everyone knows him by) has already been one of the young players to watch this pre season and it should only continue to the season proper. If Dean Cox can stand up it will only give him more opportunity to shine, grow and become one of the best young guns in todays young crop of potential future stars.

Bench Warmers

Mark Nicoski - He has been playing forward in the NAB pre season competition with Scott Selwood and others taking his position down back. He can kick the ball 50m+ but if he does not cement the forward line chance, I doubt he will be on the list next year.

Tony Notte - Was a #20 pick and while is regarded as a project player, he will want to improve out of sight for his WAFL side as he waits for a senior opportunity for West Coast.

Ashley Hansen - Plays in the same WAFL side as Tony Notte and they play similar at Full Forward/ floating lead up Center Half Forward. I do not think the Eagles can carry both in 2011.

Need to Improve

Matthew Rosa - Him and Bradley Dalziell are very similar types of players and while there is probably room for both in the best 22, I doubt both will stay in the same team. He could be Gold Coast trade bait…

Daniel Kerr - Is a multiple top 5 finisher in the Brownlow, so there is nothing wrong with his ability however in the last two years he has not played more than 11 regular games. In the 2010 pre season, he looks fit after 2009 being ruined by a groin problem, however the question now is can he keep his attitude under check?

Bradley Ebert - Has the famous South Australian name and was a number 13 pick, injuries have restricted him but its time he shows why he was chased by several clubs and was touted as a possible future captain for West Coast in his first season. In the first two season he has not been fit enough but will the third year on the list be the one to watch where he performs?

Your Thoughts

A lot of the over east experts and AFL enthusiasts are not rating the Eagles this year but what do you think? Do you think it be another year of up and down football where some weeks they will look good and others they will look average?

Related K2K Posts

• Melbourne’s 2010 Season Preview (0)
• Essendon’s 2010 Season Preview (4)
• Sydney’s 2010 Season Preview (3)
• Richmond’s 2010 Season Preview (9)
• Collingwood 2010 Season Preview (12)

The Tigers have a 0.238 chance in their 2010 games & the team averages 1025 points with an average cost of around $287,000 per player.

Dustin Martin looks to be a dreamteam gun for the year, is he in your team?

Best Buys

Brett Deledio (midfield) $422,200 – Undoubtedly the Tigers best player they have, averaging 96 1 points per game in 2009. Deledio racked up 30 or more disposals 5 times including career highs of 36 disposals & 23 kicks .vs. Hawthorn in round 21 & 9 tackles .vs. West Coast in round 12.

Deledio was ranked 15th in inside 50s & 16th in inside 50s per game & he’s an estimated $24,000 bargain for one of the future elite of the competition.

Daniel Jackson (midfield) $399,100 – Jackson is on of those gritty possession gathering taggers in the mould of Brady Rawlings with an average of 90.8 in 2009. Jackson racked up 30 or more disposals 3 times with career highs of 33 disposals, 22 kicks & 11 marks .vs. Nth Melbourne in round 5.

Jackson ranked 17th in tackles & had an equal career high 9 tackles .vs. Sydney in round 19. Tackles are worth 4 points & Jackson is over priced by an estimated $23,600.

Chris Newman (defence) $349,800 – The skipper was noted more for his controversy in the sacking of Terry Wallace last season, but at an average of 79.6, he hopes this year his game is the talking point.

Newman had a career high 16 handballs .vs. Adelaide in round 13 & does like the occasional run down the ground with 47 inside 50s in 2009.

Newman is an estimated $29,000 bargain so slip him in if you can because he’s a statistical surprise.

Mitch Morton (forward) $343,600 – Never has a goal kicker put us on the edge of unpredictability in 2009 as Morton did averaging 78.2 & loaded with talent.

Morton had career highs of 12 marks .vs. West Coast in round 12 & 8 tackles .vs. Collingwood showing that he can play defensive & not hang his head like prima donna forwards tend to.

Morton ranked 17th in goals& 19th in goals contributed & has an estimated $30,000 discount that will have people thinking seriously hard about taking him.

Jack Riewoldt (forward) $327,400 – In 2010, expect Riewoldt the younger to be a forward force after averaging 74.5 in 2009 & having some great pre-season games with the boot.

Riewoldt had 2 highlight games with career highs of 19 disposals & 6 goals .vs. Essendon in round 17 & 14 kicks & 14 marks .vs. Nth Melbourne in round 5.

Riewoldt is an estimated $15,700 bargain & is definitely more value than Saint Nick.

Robin Nahas (forward) $313,100 – Nahas exploded onto the big stage as one of the great rookie finds of 2009 averaging 71.3 gathering 19 disposals twice & a 5 goal haul .vs. Port Adelaide in that narrow 3 point loss.

Nahas may not be super cheap as the great rookies prices have sky rocketed, but he’s still an estimated $7,700 bargain.

Risky Bargain Buys

Dean Polo (defence) $288,500 – Polo averaged 65.7 from 21 games & his price is under the league average in 2010 despite his above average score.

With a career high 18 handballs .vs. Brisbane in round 7, Polo is an estimated $38,000 bargain defender that has enough games to get you through the season.

Luke McGuane (defence) $242,300 – McGuane is virtually half price & although he averages 55.1 per game, he played all 22 games with career highs of 23 disposals .vs. West Coast in round 12 & enjoys playing against the Western Bulldogs with 12 marks in round 3 & 14 handballs in round 11.

Is it the lack of forward options for him to take as these stats seem to indicate he relishes playing on smaller forward lines?

Richmond Top 10 2009

1. Brett Deledio (midfield) $422,200
2. Daniel Jackson (midfield) $399,100
3. Shane Tuck (midfield) $422,300
4. Richard Tambling (midfield) $390,200
5. Chris Newman (defence) $349,800
6. Mitch Morton (forward) $343,600
7. Jack Riewoldt (forward) $327,400
8. Dean Polo (defence) $288,500
9. Robin Nahas (forward) $313,100
10. Luke McGuane (defence) $242,300

Your Feedback

Will you be having any Richmond Tigers players in your Dreamteam besides Dustin Martin this year?

Related K2K Posts

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After Kick2Kick reviews each club, we will give their full season 2010 predictions like we did last year. If you would like to review a team or something else, please contact us.

Jesse White improved last year but needs to improve again & take control of the forward line for the Swans if they want to make the finals after missing in 2009.

What Happened Last Year

Not much went right last year with the ‘Blood Code’ period ending with Barry Hall finally leaving the club after one snap too much and a host of senior players followed him by retirement or by trades.

This left the club no option but to renew their list via the national draft and through trades and in my opinion their playing list looks more exciting.

The New Season

While Hall and O’Loughlin’s have moved on, the forward line now looks more balanced with Bradshaw, White and debutants Jetta, Rohan and Dennis-Lane all more than handy and will add that x-factor of excitement.

With the new inclusions of Jetta, McGlynn, Kennedy and the return of Kennelly and Malceski returning from a year to forget the old slow Swans of yesteryear may finally be a part of their history. Youngsters like O’Dwyer, Rohan and Hannebery will also push for spots and improve.

Likely Finish:  6th – 10th

Players to Watch

Lewis Jetta – In his first NAB game, he took the game on, kick goals and provided pace through the midfield. Last year he played against the West Coast Eagles in a scratch match and he kicked 3 goals against senior players.

Tadhg Kennelly – He may be the recruit of the season as he played in the GAA last year and completed his dream of winning the premiership playing for his fathers side. The year off has given his body some rest and so far it looks like it will only benefit him.

Their backline now consists of Mattner, Kennelly, Shaw and Malceski, that will provide a lot of run and I expect at least one of those to play more midfield or forward this year.

Bench Warmers

Henry Playfair - Lucky to get back on the list and this surely will be his last chance for AFL. Lets hope his body holds up and he has his chance.

Need to Improve

Jesse White – He had his break out year last year with a great end of the season with a round 22 NAB nomination. Now with Hall & O’Loughlin moved on its the time he goes from potential to make CHF his own at Sydney.

This will allow Goodes to play midfield more and release the pressure of Bradshaw at FF.

Mark Seaby - Has played 102 games and was recruited to help fill the void left by Jolly who returned to Melbourne. He has the skills and ability to be yet another ruckmen (Ball, Jolly & Everitt) who left their previous club and played a vital role for Sydney.

Ed Barlow – Third year on the list so according to Dreamteamers it will be the year he improves out of sight. He has played a number of positions in his three years so hopefully 2010 will be the year he improves.

Your Thoughts

With a rejuvenate list of ‘mature age’ rookies, will it make a difference for Paul Roos last year as senior coach? What do you think of the Swans for season 2010? Did they recruit well? Will they make it back into the top 8? Or will it be another year of rebuilding like last year?

Related K2K Posts

• Melbourne’s 2010 Season Preview (0)
• Essendon’s 2010 Season Preview (4)
• West Coast Eagles 2010 Season Preview (5)
• Richmond’s 2010 Season Preview (9)
• Collingwood 2010 Season Preview (12)

After Kick2Kick reviews each club, we will give their full season 2010 predictions like we did last year. If you would like to review a team or something else, please contact us.

What Happened Last Year

Is there any way we could pretend last year didn’t happen? Hopes were high, “The Cuz” was in town, and the bandwagon was full to the brim. It took all of about 30 seconds into the 2009 season for Richo to hit the post and the whole supporter-ship to realise that this was going to be the same season in a different year. But after cleaning out properly, there are at least reasons to believe that there might be hope off somewhere in the distant horizon.

Matthew Richardson has retired so who will step up and lead the club into a new era?

Trent Cotchin continued to bring tiger supporters through the gates when fit enough, and players like Robin Nahas, Angus Graham, Jack Riewoldt, Mitch Morton and Brett Deledio all had glimpses of greatness (to varying degrees), but overall there was little to be excited about in Tigerland.

The New Season

Expectations couldn’t be much lower at this stage: anything more than 5 or 6 wins for the season would be a great effort from the youngest and least experienced list in the comp.

Likely Finish:  14th

Players to Watch

Dustin Martin – In a horrendous game for the Tiges against Hawthorn, Martin was the shining light. He went and got his own ball, and disposed of it in a most un-Richmond like manner under pressure (ie – well). Will get plenty of opportunity in a midfield crying out for exactly that kind of player.

Robin Nahas – Showed that you don’t have to be able to see above the steering wheel to make it in the AFL: Nahas delighted Richmond supporters with his exciting pace, his sneaky ability around goal, and defensive determination. 100 points down in the last and it’ll be Nahas giving chase doggedly.

Tyrone Vickery – Needs to start making an impact on games, and really grow into a genuine player this season if it is ever going to happen. Should play some time up forward as well as in the ruck.

Trent Cotchin – “Cotch” hasn’t yet had a season without injury trouble, but we already love him.

Bench Warmers

Troy Simmonds – Must spend the majority of the time in the VFL, or else somehow re-invent himself as a key forward. Has been kept as insurance policy in case Graham and Vickery don’t develop as well as expected.

Alex Rance – Has been the next big thing for the Richmond defensive line for a few years now, but I’m unconvinced.

Jordan McMahon – “Bloody McMahon!” has long been a catchcry for Tiger supporters – with good reason. Nobody turns the ball over quite like Jordan. The day he gets picked there is likely to be a good old fashioned membership burning down at Punt Road.

Need to Improve

Angus Graham – Showed some glimpses in 2009, but lacked an ability to run out games. Really needs to prove that he should be Richmond’s number 1 ruck.

Jack Riewoldt – Riewoldt has plenty of ability, but needs to settle down to the rhythm of leading, marking and goaling like a real full forward. Tends to forget that he’s not Matthew Richardson, both in marking contests and in front of goal.

Shane Tuck – Poor form last year, and so his poor disposal saw him dropped to the magoos. With an ongoing injury cloud on Foley, he needs to be the experienced campaigner in the midfield.

Your Thoughts

Is anything better than the spoon too much to hope for in 2010? Or is Damien Hardwick taking the reins of a sleeping giant?

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• Melbourne’s 2010 Season Preview (0)
• Essendon’s 2010 Season Preview (4)
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• Sydney’s 2010 Season Preview (3)

This week Melbourne had a freak storm so all the Melbourne games were affected in some way. This week we also saw several key injuries to players that will have an effect on their premiership chances.

Semi Finals Wrapup

The romantic chooses for this years NAB was the Bulldogs and Fremantle, the Dogs managed to keep up their end of the bargain but Fremantle?

The Telstra Dome was empty with many turned away with the wild weather

Western Bulldogs defeated Port Adelaide by 3 points

Last week all the talk was on Barry Hall with his 6 goals with five first half goals, Aker said something interesting in the game wrapup about how he now needs to run the game out and stand up in the last quarter when its needed. Guess what? Hall did it with a pack mark in the last 2 minutes 20 meters out which enabled Brian Lake to goal which gave them the win.

This win meant that for the first time in 40 years they have gotten in a Grand Final including the regular and night/ pre season competitions.

Gray for Port Adelaide looked good and he showed his potential that Port have talked about for the last year or two. With Westhoff playing midfield their forward line looks less potent as Cloke & Tredrea are limited at best.

St Kilda defeated Fremantle by 70 points

Fremantle was missing Sanderlands, Des Headland (injured), Chris Mayne and Hayden Ballantyne (injured) and the Saints was missing Nick Riewoldt and Brendon Goddard however the Saints smashed the hapless Dockers and even if the game was at Subiaco I doubt it would have changed much.

Lenny Hayes calf injury will half worry the Saints as he does have a history with soft tissue injuries but he has three weeks to get over it. What will please the Saints was some of the lesser lights in Clinton Jones, Jarryn Geary, Armitage, Zac Dawson and Stanley (2 goals) continue to improve which increases their depth.

Pavlich was quite and with no Sandilands tapping the ball to their midfield they struggled even more than normal.

Regional Challenge Games Wrapup

We all know you cannot read too much into these games but a win is a win especially if your a struggling club.

Magpies where all over Richmond, if only they could kick straight

Collingwood defeated Richmond by 28 points

Both teams played their second string midfields however that did not stop Collingwood monstering Richmond in this game with twice as many scoring shots (35 to 17), yet only got away with a 5 goal win. Mitch Morton continues to be the shinning light for Richmond down forward with four goals, while Collingwood’s young kids in McCarthy, Wellingham & Blair shinned.

West Coast defeated Carlton by 39 points

The West Coast Eagles came out fast and opened up a five goal lead in the first half with seven goals between Mitch Brown, Lynch and Nit Nat. For Carlton they struggled to kick a winning score for the third week in a row, Judd again was amongst the best along with Waite and Murphy playing their first game for the year.

North Melbourne defeated Hawthorn by 40 points

North continue to be (to me) the surprise packet of the pre season with a big win over Hawthorn. However for every Hawks fan its not the loss but rather the ongoing injury concerns that will be troubling them, with Cyril Rioli still struggling with OP and Burgoyne their off season recruit suffering a hamstring during the week. On top of that this game they lost tough nut Brad Sewell with a collarbone and number one ruckmen Simon Tyler with a broken leg.

North on the other hand kept Hawthorn goaless for a half of football lead by Daniel Wells who managed to kick 3 goals himself in a dominate display.

Brisbane & Geelong game cancelled due to the freak storm in Melbourne

Adelaide defeated Melbourne by 2 points

Melbourne were struck with the bad luck in this game instead of Adelaide who had a horror pre season, not only did they get victory snatched from by a late goal by Kurt Tippett who finished with 5 goals but they themselves now have their injury concerns. Daniel Bell did his ACL and will miss 8 weeks while their one shinning forward Liam Jurrah dislocated his shoulder.

I wonder if Craig is yet worried about his sides inability to show anything yet?

Sydney defeated Essendon by 28 points

Sydney nearly had a full strength side while the Bombers rested skipper Jobe Watson, David Hille, Paddy Ryder, Brent Stanton, Jason Winderlich and Dustin Fletcher. You can tell Sydney’s coach Roos is setting his team up for a big finish to his coaching career…

For the Bombers Zaharakis kicked three goals and Jay Neagle showed something down forward and Ben Howlett toped the Dons’ possession count.

NAB Grand Final and Regional Challenge Games for week 4

NAB Grand Final Match up:

• Western Bulldogs v St Kilda – Saturday Night (Dome)

Challenge Games (Local Time):

Friday March 12th

• Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn at Southport, 3.30pm
• Carlton v Adelaide at Visy Park, 4pm
• Sydney Swans v North Melbourne at Narrandera, 7pm

Saturday March 13th

• Melbourne v West Coast at Casey Fields, 2pm
• Richmond v Essendon at Morwell, 3.30pm
• Port Adelaide v Collingwood at Mt Gambier, 4pm
• Fremantle v Geelong Cats at Subiaco, 4.30pm

NAB Semi Finals Talking Points

I am sure we all have many issues, point of views and arguments we want to jump on the soapbox and talk about. Well this is your chance…

Please give us your thoughts in the comments section below or add your own talking points. The questions will be asked in bold and my response will be un-bold under them. Your input and comments help us make Kick2Kick a better website, so please express your opinions.

1. Channel 7 continually muted discussions between umpire and player for fear of bad language. However does that not defeat the purpose of miking the umpires up?
   • You either have the discussion or you do not, it disturbs the flow of the conversation and you cannot follow it when its muted in parts. Is not that the whole reason why they are miked up? Channel 7 again has failed their viewers time and time again (we wont get started on the delay for Better Homes and Gardens).
2. Will we see our first sighting for a player staging for free kicks? Towards the end off the first quarter on Friday night we saw Griffen stage for a holding free kick and he got it.
   • I very much doubt the umpires will pull Griffen up and it will show that this new rule is just a meaningless rule.
3. Again in the first quarter we saw Will Minson play on after a free kick and goaled but the umpire pulled him back to take the kick again. What about the new rule of allowing the player to decide whether he can play on or not?
   • Another fail by the rules commission and the AFL, I have watched limited game time so far this year but in every game so far I have seen the umpires get it wrong again and again. Just more gray areas added to a game that is getting more confusing every year.
4. Have the injuries killed off Adelaide and Hawthorn for the year?
   • I think so, the Hawks have a hard first month (Melbourne, Geelong, the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood) and will now not have any established ruckman to lead their midfield. Skipper and Brent Renouf will have to be one of the weakest (if not the weakest) ruck combination in the competition. I still wonder if they regret not picking up a ruckman in last years trade period?

Related K2K Posts

• 2010 NAB Grand Final Tips (1)
• 2010 NAB Round 3 Tips (6)
• 2010 NAB Round 2 Wrapup (16)
• 2010 NAB Round 2 Tips (4)
• 2010 NAB Round 1 pt2 Wrapup (5)

But only recently, I’ve discovered a fatal flaw in the “Supercoach” scoring that hopefully will have coaches screaming for answers.

We all know that with “Dreamteam”, we all know what we score. It’s a fixed scoring system for kicks, handballs, marks, etc. It’s the basics of football.

But, looking into the “Supercoach” scoring system, straight from the website, it says “points are awarded based on the comprehensive Champion Data scoring system, some of which are highlighted”. The operative word in that quote is “some”. We get points for effective & ineffective possessions, etc, which has always been a contentious issue & up for interpretation.

Now, it seems “interpretation” is the rule of thumb with Champion Data & they’ve been caught out. Let’s have a look at why they’ve been busted.

Let’s take a combined score of the 2009 round 1 games & see if you can spot the similarities in the totals.

1. Richmond .vs. Carlton 3300
2. Hawthorn .vs. Geelong 3302
3. Collingwood .vs. Adelaide 3299
4. Brisbane .vs. West Coast 3306
5. St Kilda .vs. Sydney 3300
6. Melbourne .vs. Nth Melbourne 3301
7. Port Adelaide .vs. Essendon 3300
8. Fremantle .vs. Western Bulldogs 3299

Average total 3301

Each teams combined total must have a standard distribution of 3300. Go ahead, check every game of every round & you’ll find the same result give or take. The question is how does this always end up being the result? It’s quite obvious some form of bell curve has to be used, that I do know. It raises another question that several of us have been asking for a few years & the answer now is, yes, the SuperCoach does also score on bias based on “superstar” status & where you play. How else does Chris Judd get so many high SuperCoach scores in games we knew he played poorly.

For those who are wondering, the Saints have 5 in the top 17, the Cats have the same number in the top 100, the same number as the Kangroos.

Collingwood have 8 & Carlton 7 in the top 100.

In other words, the high salaried, expected performances are not matching the actual performances of the 2009 premiers.

Take a look at the team totals for round 1 & the margin to see the examples

• Carlton by 83 pts (1880 to 1420)
• Western Bulldogs by 63 pts (1871-1428)
• Port Adelaide by 41 points (1756-1544)
• Nth Melbourne by 34 points (1721-1580)
• St Kilda by 15 points (1836-1464)
• Brisbane by 9 points (1920-1386)
• Geelong by 8 points (1842-1460)
• Adelaide by 4 points (1673-1626)

There is little doubt, as a result, the salaries don’t match the scores. So, how do we beat the system? Firstly, ignore the averages for they set the prices. Secondly, create your own bell curve based on the average score totals by this formula

• A = Players score
• B= average of league score
• C= number of players
• A – B
• (A – B) squared
• Average of ((A – B) squared) / C))
• (((A – B) – average of ((A – B) squared) / C)))

After completing this, we can get the form guide of each player, not counting the 2010 rookies, in a form of standard devitation.

• 9 players are the elite, or 3 times above the average
• 81 players are champions, or 2 times above the average
• 150 players are on the cusp of something big, or 1 times above the average
• 146 players are great contributors, or 1 times below the average
• 100 players are the list cloggers, or 2 times below the average

We want to pick from those 150 who are on the verge of something either big or returning to past glories, those who are above the average & yet have the breakout game like the elite without the price tag. Therefore, using their true score shows us some true bargains compared to the average score.

If you don’t think there’s a difference, here’s the sample of the salaries.

• 1 player is 4 times above the average
• 15 players are 3 times above the average
• 72 players are 2 times above the average
• 140 players are 1 times above the average
• 185 players are 1 times below the average
• 66 players are 2 times below the average
• 7 players are 3 times below the average

I’ve entered a team with $142,100 left remaining in the salary cap using 19 household names ($411,600 & over) & 11 cheap players.

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