Kisiel2's blog

20110201 - Final

2011-01-31T21:10:00.002+00:00

Hello everyone,

I am very sorry for lack of any information for few months. I did not suppose anyone was still waiting for posts.

For all questions I have received: unfortunately, I do not plan to continue this blog for now.

My life situation has changed (see picture below) and considering time zone difference it will be quite hard for me to track polish market again.

Also, I have invested my capital in different way, thus I am not actively trading at the moment.

(Photo stolen from here)

All of best!
Kisiel2

20100913

2010-09-13T20:45:00.000+01:00

Welcome after long break. My secondary project is going quite well, however it still need some work. Therefore, I think the posts could be less regular for a moment.

The WIG Index gain +1.26%:

The daily buy signal has been generated (at 42850) and we are again at important level. Crossing primary high (ca.44300) will generate confirming primary buy signal.

20100903

2010-09-03T18:50:00.002+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.56%:

The last LH (ca.42850) has been broken, however price is still in error margin. Thus, I will wait for confirmation before generating daily buy signal.

There won't be any posts next week as I am on holidays:

(image from here)

20100902

2010-09-02T19:19:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.55%:

The market again gained some points and we are close to last LH (ca.42850). Breaking (and confirming it later) would generate daily buy signal.
The CCI oscillator suggests the above scenario.

20100901

2010-09-01T23:15:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.60%:

The market gained some points, however we are still in daily downtrend.

20100831

2010-08-31T19:18:00.001+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.55%:

Today's session was quite volatile, however the market made those gains in last 30 minutes.
The overall situation has not changed - we are still in daily downtrend and primary uptrend. Therefore, opening new positions can be risky.

20100828 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

2010-08-28T10:47:00.000+01:00

The EURPLN is still hovering near 4.00:

The CHFPLN chart:

Our expectations of CHFPLN bouncing from 3.00 were rather missed and we are above 3.00 again. Thus, sell signal was not confirmed this time.
That is just another example, how unpredictable Forex market can be.

20100827

2010-08-27T22:38:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.88%:

Nothing new can be said. We are in daily- downtrend (after yesterday's sell signal) and primary uptrend (support ca.37000)

20100826

2010-08-26T23:18:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.35%:

Today's session was rather calm and we finished at the resistance level (ca.41800). The daily trend is still broken and we shall not open any new transactions now.

20100825

2010-08-25T23:34:00.000+01:00

In few last days I was not able to post anything new (due to my secondary project).
Unfortunately, more delays are expected in near future.

The WIG Index fell -0.58%:

Today's session generated daily sell signal. Also, the RSI and CCI oscillators seem to confirm the breakout.
We should also note the head-and-shoulders pattern, with projected target ca.40700. Therefore, I would say (subjective opinion) we should expect it to go to around 41000.

Sources:
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]

20100821 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

2010-08-21T12:04:00.001+01:00

The EURPLN is still hovering near the important level of 4.00:

The CHFPLN has found support at ca.2.84 and now is again near 3.00:

As usual, it is hard to make any guesses for this exchange rate.
In my (subjective) opinion we should wait and see if CHFPLN rebounces from 3.00 and falls through last low (ca.2.84) - that will generate pretty strong sell signal.

20100820

2010-08-20T23:56:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index fell another -0.49%:

The general situation has not changed; however, we are the edge of generating daily sell signal.
We might also want to note the possible head-and-shoulders pattern, with projected target at ca.40700.

20100819

2010-08-19T23:43:00.001+01:00

The WIG Index fell -0.43%:

We had quite volatile session today. In last 10 minutes we have touched the support 42000 and dramatically bounced back.
However, the technical situation has not changed and we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.

20100818

2010-08-18T22:44:00.001+01:00

Few last days I had to devote all my time to my other projects, therefore I was not able to post new charts.

The WIG Index fell -0.24%:

The market is still hovering near support level of 42000 and there is not much new to tell.
We are still in daily- and primary- uptrends. Both oscillators are showing negative divergences, but it is the price we should follow.

20100814 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

2010-08-14T08:52:00.000+01:00

The EURPLN is still hovering near psychological level of 4.00:

The CHFPLN has returned to its important level of 3.00:

It will be interesting to observe what CHFPLN is doing.
If it bounces from 3.00 and falls through last low (ca.2.85) it will be obvious sell signal.

20100813

2010-08-13T20:44:00.001+01:00

The WIG Index fell -0.39%:

The session opened quite high (ca. 42600), however we have fallen during a day. and we are again at daily support now.
The daily uptrend is still intact, however we might note negative divergence on CCI.

Interesting paper about diversification (here).

Polish pensioners situation is bad and probably will be worse (here). That is why we now should stress the importance of proper retirement savings in Poland.

Sources:
[http://www.money.pl/gospodarka/wiadomosci/artykul/polski;emeryt;pariasem;europy;moze;byc;jeszcze;gorzej,152,0,654744.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm]

20100812

2010-08-12T19:27:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index gain +0.29%:

The level of 42000 has acted as support for today's session.
Therefore, the daily sell signal has not been generated and we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.

20100811

2010-08-11T19:29:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index fell -1.06%:

The market fell several points and now is on edge of daily sell signal.
We should wait for further market actions with our stop-loss orders in place.

20100810

2010-08-10T21:49:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index fell -1.21%:

The market has fallen, but the price is still above last higher low (ca.42100).
Therefore we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.

20100809

2010-08-09T20:07:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index fell -0.54%:

The WIG Index fell few points, however we are still in daily uptrend.

20100807 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

2010-08-07T09:07:00.000+01:00

The EURPLN rate still hovers just below 4.00:

In my (subjective) opinion is too early to call sell signal (even daily).
The primary support level is at 3.80.

The CHFPLN has :

The CHFPLN is readily descending and we are well under psychological 3.00.

I would rather expect CHFPLN to stay in that area or fall further, however forecasting currencies is very hard task and it is rather guess-game.

20100806

2010-08-06T08:52:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index fell -0.04%:

Today's session has little of technical significance. We are still in primary- and daily- uptrends and our positions should be long only now.

20100805

2010-08-05T22:30:00.000+01:00

The WIG Index fell -0.23%:

The market has made higher high today and we are still advancing. Both oscillators and volume seem to confirm the rally.

20100804

2010-08-04T23:16:00.001+01:00

Unfortunately, due to work related to my secondary project I was not able to post any new chart over few last days.

The WIG Index gain +0.28%:

As per chart we are continuing the rally. Both oscillators seem to confirm the gains.

20100731 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

2010-07-31T11:07:00.000+01:00

The EURPLN is still hovering in 4.00-4.20 area:

The CHFPLN has broken the psychological barrier of 3.00:

The important support has been broken and that are good news for polish mortgage owners.
However, the CHFPLN still remains in primary uptrend unless 2.60 is taken.