Houston Weather Blog

Ida not likely to affect Texas

Tim Heller — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:21:47 -0600

There is rain in our forecast with showers possible Sunday and Monday. But that's from a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico, not from the tropical system in the Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Ida made landfall early Thursday morning along the east coast of Nicaragua and then weakened to a tropical depression. The center of the circulation moved offshore again Friday afternoon. Now that the storm is over deep, warm water it will likely strengthen again. The National Hurricane Center forecasts Ida to become a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon. Further strengthening is possible while it tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

The various computer models we consult when analyzing the future track of tropical weather systems show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico early next week. But west-to-east steering winds should turn the storm toward the east, away from Texas.

It's possible Ida might not make landfall in the U.S. Strong wind shear and cooler water in the Gulf could weaken the circulation and allow the storm to dissipate.

You can track the storm online with our new Interactive Hurricane Tracking map. ABC 13 is also the only local media outlet following the weather on Twitter and Facebook.

Hurricane Ida could be the worst storm this season

Tim Heller — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:55:19 -0600

With rainfall amounts expected to reach 25" or more in Nicaragua and Honduras, Hurricane Ida could be the deadliest storm of the season. Flash flooding and landslides are likely in the rough terrain. The small, but intense storm is also expected to push a 3-4 foot storm surge ashore.

The early morning satellite shows the storm close to the coast. Maximum sustained winds reached 75 mph overnight, hurricane force.

Hurricane Ida is moving slowly and will spend the next 48 hours over Central America. The storm should be much weaker when it re-enters the western Caribbean Sea early Saturday morning. The water in this area is still very warm and there's a strong possibility the circulation will intensify... if it makes it there. Beyond the next 24 hours, there is no consensus among the forecast models. So the future track and intensity are highly uncertain.

If the storm makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, upper level steering currents should turn it to the east. That's based on the expected weather conditions early next week and also the climatology of storms that develop this late in the season. See the map in yesterday's post showing the track of November hurricanes over the past 150 years.

Track Hurricane Ida online using our new Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we're still watching the disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. High wind shear is tearing that storm apart and preventing it from developing a central circulation. We are NOT expecting this to develop into a tropical weather system, but we are expecting it to drift northward. Our chance of rain is going up Sunday and Monday as the moisture moves toward the Gulf coast. The long fetch of east-to-west winds could also produce some rough seas and cause minor beach erosion along our local coastlines.

Keep up to date on changes in our forecast and development in the tropics with"abc13weather" on Twitter and now, Facebook. Almost 3600 people are following us on Twitter and we already have about 1000 fans on our newly launched Facebook page! Thank you!

Late season development in the tropics

Tim Heller — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:59:22 -0600

We're watching two disturbances in the tropics. One is Tropical Storm Ida, the ninth named storm of the season. The other, weaker disturbance is developing a little closer to home and could affect our weather Sunday and Monday.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded the circulation in the southwest Caribbean to a tropical storm after Hurricane Hunters found 60 mph winds and a closed circulation while flying into the disturbance earlier in the day.

We expect the storm will weaken as it moves over Central America but it could become a lot stronger if it makes it all the way into the western Caribbean; the water just east of the Yucatan Peninsula is still very warm. Some of the long range computer models forecast the circulation to move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. But again, the storm has to make it past Nicaragua and Honduras first.

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is not a tropical weather system...right now. It has been nearly stationary the last few days. The showers are associated with the remnants of an old cool front. We do expect the moisture to drift northward and bring us rain on Sunday and Monday. Boaters should watch for rough seas and there could be some coastal flooding with a strong easterly winds driving the water toward the coast.

We don't think a tropical weather system will develop out of the storm in the Bay of Campeche. The waters have cooled and there's 40 knot wind shear blowing over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane season doesn't officially end until November 30, of course. But we checked past hurricane tracks dating back to 1851 and a hurricane hasn't made landfall along the Gulf coast west of Pensacola, Florida during the month of November in the last 150 years. Hurricane Jeanne moved into the western Gulf waters in early November 1980, but then dissipated over open water.

You can track storms in the tropics using our Interactive Hurricane Tracking map. Check our the data from the Hurricane Hunters, the forecast track and computer model data.

Following the weather on Twitter

Tim Heller — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:10:02 -0600

One of my Eyewitness Storm Spotter volunteers wrote me saying he signed up for Twitter. But he doesn't understand it and so far, he doesn't like it. Play around with it, I urged him. I didn't get "it" either when I first signed up with Twitter. Now, I use it all the time to follow the weather.

Let's get started

The first step is to sign up for a free account: www.twitter.com

Then you need to find folks to follow. Click on the "Find People" link on the top of the Twitter web page and type in the word "weather." You'll find several pages of people and businesses who write about the weather on Twitter. The Weather Channel is at the top of the list with almost 20,000 followers . Look down a couple of more spots and you'll find "abc13weather." Click on the little icon to follow my tweets. Every time I write something, it appears on your personal Twitter page.

Do some snooping

This is where it gets fun. After you follow me, or anybody else, check out who I'm following. You might find other interesting people or businesses that you want to follow as well.

For example, check out a few people the Weather Channel is following. They're following "abc13weather." They're also following a Twitter account that posts "emergency news." Sound interesting? Click on the icon to follow them. You can always change your mind later and un-follow any account.

And so it goes. You build a list of people and businesses to follow. Some of the them post messages all the time, some rarely "tweet." But the more people you follow, the more updates you'll get, the more interesting and useful Twitter becomes.

In addition to weather tweets, I also follow NASA, science news, earthquake reports, a hurricane chaser, the Texans, Roula from KRBE, Disney World, and of course, Woot! Every time they write an update, it instantly appears on my personal Twitter page.

It's not all fun and Tweets

During Hurricane Ike, one or our web team members, Mike McGuff, used the ABC13 Twitter feed to keep several hundred people aware of the storm as it made landfall in southeast Texas. Since you can monitor Twitter on your cellphone, this was the only way some folks knew what was going on after their power went out. Mike would watch my updates on-air and then post quick updates, all 140 characters or less.

That's the beauty and challenge of Twitter: all messages must be 140 characters or less. It forces you to chose your words very carefully. And from a reader's standpoint, you get the message without having to read through a long, wordy discussion. How many of us just read the headlines in the daily newspaper? If something grabs us, we read the rest of the article. It's the same with Twitter; Many people add links to lengthier blog posts, pictures and even videos.

On the "abc13weather" Twitter account, I post daily weather updates, tropical weather alerts and severe weather watches and warnings. Viewers also send me their storm reports on Twitter. Got a question about the weather? Send me a tweet and I'll respond.

For me, that's the most valuable part of Twitter. I can communicate with my viewers and they can communicate with me. It's a two-way conversation... multiplied by 3500!

Severe weather often develops this time of year

Tim Heller — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 09:13:00 -0600

Here in the south we have a second severe weather season in the fall. Some years we have more severe weather in October and November than we do during spring.

This time of year, there’s still plenty of warm, moist air sitting over the Gulf. All it takes is a good strong wind to blow the moisture inland where it often collides with strong cold fronts dropping in from Canada. The result is often widespread severe weather.

We saw an example of that last week. A strong storm dumped over three feet of snow in the Rockies. When the front edge of that cold air pushed into the middle of the country it produced heavy rain and severe weather from Texas to Minnesota, from the High Plains to the East Coast.

It felt like summer with high heat and humidity before the front arrived. Afterward, the sky cleared out and temperatures fell twenty degrees. That change from one season to the next over just a few hours causes much of our severe weather.

The jet stream has shifted north, taking us out of the storm track for a few days. We have lots of sunshine and mild temperatures in our forecast...until the jet stream wiggles again and sends another storm our way.

Daylight Saving Time ends tonight!

Tim Heller — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 10:13:00 -0500

You get an extra hour of sleep tonight!
Daylight Saving Time officially ends at 2 AM Sunday morning.

Set your clocks back one hour...
or you'll be an hour early to everything on Sunday.

Weather so nice...it's scary!

Tim Heller — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:50:37 -0500

The sky will be sunny this weekend with pleasant temps and low humidity. We'll have perfect weather for the kids Saturday night as they head through the neighborhood knocking on doors, looking for treats. Sunset is at 6:36 PM with total darkness settling in around 7:30 PM. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s around sunset, falling into the low 60s by 10 PM. Winds will be light, out of the northwest.

The weather pattern is changing again, for the better. The jet stream is shifting north, taking us out of the storm track and leaving us with quiet weather and slightly cooler than normal temperatures all next week.

Heavy rain likely Thursday and Friday

Tim Heller — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:51:59 -0500

The gusty south winds are priming the atmosphere, setting us up for a heavy rain event that starts tonight with a few scattered showers and continues with widespread rain Thursday and Friday.

Altogether I'm expecting 3-5" of rain will fall in most neighborhoods. Some spots could have more because of storms training, one after the other, over the same spot. A Flash Flood Watch has already been issued for all of southeast Texas.

Thursday will start off with a few wet streets from scattered thundershowers. The rain will become more widespread throughout the day Thursday with the evening commute looking particularly bad. Waves of heavy rain are likely from 1 PM Thursday through 1 PM Friday afternoon.

Since the ground is already saturated, flash flooding is likely. Also, many of our local rivers are already running near bankful. We'll also need to watch for river flooding in the days following the storms.

Track the storms online with our county-by-county MegaDoppler 13 radar maps. You can also watch a live stream of MegaDoppler 13 on our website.

Not as wet, not as warm

Tim Heller — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:13:00 -0500

The sky will gradually clear over southeast Texas on Tuesday, leaving us with a very nice afternoon.

The storm that brought us 2-3" of rain on Monday is moving east, away from Houston. High pressure will blow some dry air our way throughout the day. I expect the temperatures to be similar to what we enjoyed on Saturday: highs near 70° with low humidity.

But this break in the rain won't last long. The humidity returns on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front which will arrive on Thursday and produce more heavy thundershowers .

Another 2-3" of rain could fall with this next storm, and just like the rain on Monday, rush hour could be a mess. Although this time, it looks like the heaviest rain will fall during the afternoon commute.

TowerCam video of storms rolling into Houston

Tim Heller — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:01:57 -0500

We captured video of the squall line as it moved into Houston early Monday morning. This was the beginning of the wet weather that lasted all day.

The Eyewitness Storm Spotter volunteers reported between 1-3" of rain from the storms on Monday. A few spots got a little more because of training showers moving over the same area.

If you don't see a rainfall report for your neighborhood, consider joinging our network of weather observers. All you need is an accurate rain gauge. If you're interested, send me an email: tim.heller@abc.com

Messy Monday ahead

Tim Heller — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 06:56:21 -0500

Heavy rain will fall across Houston today. A Flash Flood Watch has already been issued for the entire area. I'm expecting 1-3" of rain, with some neighborhoods getting more than 5".

You can watch the storms develop on our Live MegaDoppler 13 radar.

Although I'm not expecting widespread severe weather, a few storms will be strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and small hail. However, heavy rain is the main threat. During some of the downpours water will collect in area streets and flooding is likely in those spots where drainage is poor.

Now you can be a part of the 13 Eyewitness News weather team. Send us your rainfall reports on Twitter and Facebook.

Although sunny and cool weather will return on Tuesday, the break will be short lived. More storms are possible toward the end of the week.

Ragweed pollen problems

Tim Heller — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 09:13:00 -0500

There's only one thing wrong with our weather, and it's a big thing for people who suffer from hay-fever. The ragweed pollen count is very high.

Ragweed season usually begins in mid-August and continues into the fall. In northern parts of the country the ragweed season ends with the first freeze. Down south, we have to wait until the plants quit pollinating and that's usually not till the first part of November.

The ugly ragweed plants only live for one year. But during that short life a single plant can produce over a billion grains of aggravating pollen. The light-weight grains of pollen can travel over two miles in the wind.

Allergy sufferers can reduce the sniffling and sneezing by keeping their windows closed, even on these good weather days, especially between 10 AM and 3 PM when the pollen level is usually highest.

Watch for the ABC 13 Health Forecast during our morning and afternoon newscasts. You can also check the pollen count online.

Rain moves out. Cool air returns!

Tim Heller — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:12:10 -0500

As expected, the early morning rush hour was a mess in Houston. Transtar tells us there were 38 accidents within the city between 5:30-10:00 AM, most caused by people driving too fast on the wet roads.

Here are some of the rainfall totals reported by your Eyewitness Storm Spotters and from folks following us on Twitter:

Cleveland: 4.50"
Southwest Houston: 3.26"
Jersey Village: 2.65"
Pasadena: 2.50"
Galveston: 2.10"
Brazoria: 1.89"
Conroe: 1.64"
Sargent: .73"

The cold front has cleared the area and you can already feel the temperatures and humidity dropping. The gusty northwest wind will continue to blow all night. By early Friday morning we should be in the upper 40s and low 50s across southeast Texas. Highs Friday will only reach the upper 60s in many neighborhoods. That's ten degrees cooler than normal!

Expect a slow warm-up this weekend with temperatures back to normal by Sunday with a high near 80°.

Watch for wet streets on Thursday

Tim Heller — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:04:54 -0500

Periods of rain are likely between now and Thursday evening. Both the morning and afternoon commute could be messy.

Our exclusive FutureTrack computer model shows widespread rain moving into the Houston area by midday Thursday. The showers could be heavy enough to cause some temporary street flooding in spots with poor drainage.

You can track the storms throughout the day with our online interactive radar map.

While some of the storms could be strong, the atmosphere is only marginally unstable so widespread severe weather is not expected.

Most of us will pick up 1-3" of rain from these storms. A few neighborhoods might be a little wetter if more than one downpour moves over the same area.

The rain will end late in the day as the cold front pushes eastward. Our exclusive FutureTrack shows the sky clearing west of Houston by early Thursday evening.

A gusty northwest wind blowing behind the cold front should clear out the clouds and bring back the cooler temperatures on Friday. The weekend still looks great with sunshine, cooler temps and lower humidity.

Orionid Meteor Shower

Tim Heller — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:16:58 -0500

Early birds could see a few falling stars early Wednesday morning during the Orionid Meteor Shower. Unfortunately the sky will be mostly cloudy, blocking the view for many of us.

Stardate says we could see up to 20 meteors per hour. Most will seem to appear out of the constellation Orion for which the shower is named.

The Orionids happen every year this time when the Earth's orbit around the sun takes us through the dusty debris left behind by Halley's Comet.

For the best view, get away from city lights, let you eyes adjust to the darkness and simply look up, toward the southeast.

Strong storms later this week

Tim Heller — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:29:05 -0500

The work week is starting off with comfortable temps and reasonable humidity. But this is Houston and that usually doesn't last long.

Indeed, dew points were inching back toward the sticky 60s and temperatures were closing in on 80° by late Monday afternoon. These temperatures, however, are quite seasonal for this time of year.

A strong storm moving across the country this week will generate thunderstorms from Texas into the midwest. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall here in Houston along with gusty winds and small hail. I think the best chance of rain will be late Wednesday into Thursday.

The sky should clear out late Thursday setting us up for another great weekend!

Now you can follow the weather with us on Facebook!
Become a fan of "abc13weather" and we'll let you know about changes in the forecast, severe weather developments and tropical updates.

Winter Weather Outlook: Slightly WARMER than Normal

Tim Heller — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 08:13:00 -0500

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their winter weather outlook last week, calling for cooler than normal temperatures for southeast Texas. I disagree.

During an El Nino winter the data shows we average +.91°F warmer than normal here in Houston.

When the water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal, a weather pattern called El Nino, an active subtropical jet stream usually steers more weather systems across the southern part of the United States. Last week I wrote here on the Houston Weather Blog that historically the warmer the water, the more rain we get during the winter months of December, January and February.

You might think that all those clouds and all that rain would leave us cooler than normal. I went back and checked the weather records for Bush Intercontinental Airport. During the past seven El Nino winters, afternoon high temperatures did average slightly cooler than normal, -.40°F. But it seems that all those clouds tend to hold in the heat at night; the average low temperature was +2.2°F warmer than normal.

There will be cold nights and there will be dry days. But overall, this upcoming winter should be wetter and warmer than normal.

From sweating to sweaters

Tim Heller — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:23:44 -0500

Temperatures are cool now, but they'll drop even lower this weekend!

I'm expecting lows tonight to reach the mid 50s across the area. That's a few degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. The clear sky, dry air and nearly calm winds will allow the atmosphere to cool off quickly.

And even with a full sky of sunshine on Saturday, we'll still only warm into the mid 70s.

Another shot of cold air will move south by Sunday morning. Many of us will wake up to temperatures in the mid to upper 40s! A few spots north of Houston might drop into the low 40s while folks living closer to the coast will stay a little warmer. Is that cold enough for you to be tempted to turn on your heater?

And it doesn't warm up very much on Sunday. I'm looking at data that shows high temps only in the upper 60s!

Just yesterday, we had a shirt-sweating, record tying high temperature of 92° in Houston. The heat index was 101°. The difference between what it felt like on Thursday and what it will feel like Sunday morning is 54°!

NOAA: September 2009 was second warmest on record

Tim Heller — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 11:13:00 -0500

The average temperature of the land and sea around the world was 60.12° last month. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, that's the second warmest temp recorded for the month since weather records started back in 1880.

The map above shows the parts of North America that were warmer and cooler than normal in September 2009. To be clear, this is a measurement of the land and sea, not the weather. The ground was a little warmer than normal in Texas.

NOAA also reports the Arctic sea ice was 23.8% smaller than long term averages, although records only date back to 1979. On the other hand, the Antarctic sea ice increased 2.8% above average.

Winter weather outlook: Expect more rain in Houston

Tim Heller — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:13:00 -0500

The upcoming winter months will likely be a little wetter than usual. Climatologists define "winter" as the period from December 1 through February 29. Warmer water in the central Pacific Ocean, referred to as "El Nino", is expected to cause the jet stream to buckle, sending more rain across the southern United States.

Right now, the central Pacific Ocean water temperatures are about +.70°C to +.90°C warmer than normal. That's a weak El Nino. But most long-range computer models, shown below, indicate the water could continue to warm over the next few months with sea surface temps ranging from +.50°C to +2.0°C above normal.

I went back and checked the recent weather records to see how we fared during past El Nino events and the results are mixed. During the winter of 2006-07, water temperatures averaged +.80°C and rainfall in Houston was -1.41" below normal. Two years earlier, the Pacific sea surface temps again were about as warm, +.70°C, but rainfall here was +1.11" wetter than normal that winter.

However, when the water is muchwarmer than normal, I found rainfall to be much greater than usual. During the El Nino of 1997-98 the water temps in the Pacific Ocean were +2.3°C above normal and we had almost six inches more rain than usual, +5.92" that winter. From December 1 to February 28, 1992 the water in the central Pacific was +1.8°C above normal and we had a record 23.03" of rain here in Houston

The warmer the water gets in the Pacific Ocean this winter, the more we'll need our umbrellas.

Near record highs on Wednesday

Tim Heller — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:06:28 -0500

Temperatures are warming up again and could get close to tying or breaking a record on Wednesday.

The hottest it's ever been on October 14 is 92° and that record was set in 1954. We're forecasting a high of 90° in Houston. To be sure, it will feel much warmer than that because of the humidity. The heat index will probably hit 100° during the mid afternoon hours.

This late season warm-up will be short lived.

A major shift in the jet stream pattern will allow cold air to spill southward later this week. Freezing cold temperatures could reach as far south as Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee by Saturday morning. It won't be that cold around here, but it will be 5-10° cooler than normal.

Unlike the cool front that moved through last weekend, the sky should clear out behind this front. The upcoming weekend looks perfect!

I expect temperatures to slowly warm next week as the colder air shifts to the east. But next week shouldn't be as warm as this week.

Warm front brings heat and humidity back to Houston

Tim Heller — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:03:45 -0500

We got a little taste of fall over the weekend, but suddenly it feels like summer again.

A warm front moved north across Houston earlier Monday afternoon. Temperatures jumped 10° and dew points surged as the warm front drifted north. The warming will continue over the next couple of days with highs hitting the mid to upper 80s starting Tuesday.

The warm air returns with a lot of moisture. We were tracking scattered downpours on MegaDoppler 13 with the warm front on Monday. And more heavy showers are likely again Tuesday.

Another cool front will push across Texas later this week, leaving behind cooler than normal temperatures on Friday. The upcoming weekend looks nice and cool again!

Find "abc13weather" on Facebook!

Tim Heller — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:47:30 -0500

If you keep Facebook open at work (and who doesn't?!) you can keep track of the weather with ABC 13!

Just search for "abc13weather" on Facebook to find our new FanPage. You'll find out first about important changes in the weather. I'll also be posting severe weather updates and tropical weather alerts, when necessary. And you can join the discussion by posting your comments as well.

We'll be adding some "behind the scenes" pictures to our photo gallery soon. Watch for videos and web links as we build the FanPage and add more content over the next few weeks.

Between our on-air and on-line weathercasts, the Houston Weather Blog, Twitter and now Facebook, we cover the weather like no one else in the Houston area!

Severe storms Friday followed by cooler temps

Tim Heller — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 17:24:30 -0500

Temperatures have been reaching near record levels the last few days, topping out in the low 90s. I still think a strong cool front will cool us off this weekend. But the transition from summer-like heat to more traditional fall-like temperatures will create some strong storms.

Friday will start off with a mostly cloudy sky. A line of strong thunderstorms should reach Houston by early afternoon. Our exclusive FutureTrack shows you what the radar and satellite should look like Friday afternoon. Additional storms will move across the Houston area throughout the evening hours.

There is a slight risk of these storms producing damaging winds as they blow across our part of Texas. Rainfall will likely be heavy with frequent lightning.

Behind the cold front temperatures will be 15-20° cooler on Saturday and Sunday. But there will be enough moisture hanging around that the sky will be stay mostly cloudy with a few light showers this weekend.

Followup Discussion:

The squall line moved to the southeast a little faster than forecast. The satellite and radar image to the left shows the thunderstorms reaching northwest Harris County about 10:00 AM Friday morning, three hours earlier than we expected.

A slight increase in the foreward speed of the storms caused a timing error, however, the coverage and intensity of the storms was accurately forecast by our exclusive FutureTrack forecast model.

Teague Elementary students know about hurricanes

Tim Heller — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:13:00 -0500

While you might not have had much use for that hurricane tracking map this season, the students at Teague Elementary in Pasadena have been busy with their maps.

Karina Gonzalez, the third grade bilingual teacher at Teague, says her students are "hurricane savvy" now. She used the ABC 13 Hurricane Tracking Maps from Kroger to teach mapping skills to her class. The students plotted the latitude and longitude of Hurricane Ike which made landfall along the Texas coast last season.

The students have also been studying the weather and learning hurricane safety tips. One of the walls in the classroom is covered with posters and maps. The students researched hurricane facts. They also created checklists to use before storms develop.

"My students loved it and learned a lot!" Mrs. Gonzalez told me.

The hurricane tracking maps are published every year by ABC 13 and our community partners. The maps are bilingual with all information printed in both English and Spanish. Any maps leftover at the end of the season are donated to local teachers.