Need a Lake Martin real estate intervention?

I really like idea behind the HGTV show, Real Estate Intervention.  It’s real.  It’s practical. And like a lot of these real life intervention shows, if I had any sense I would buy copies to make my kids watch when they become teenagers.

My wife and I were joking that we could make a show about Lake Martin waterfront home sellers - The Lake Interventionist: Helping Sellers Get Rid of Their Unsold Properties By Any Means Necessary. I could be the interventionist, the one that sits down with the sellers, holds their hands lovingly, with dewy eye, and tells them that they need some help.

We could sit around the living room of their Lake Martin house, and instead of friends and family, I could bring with me some local “experts” to address the holy trinity of real estate:

1) Staging.  Bee Little could pat them on the back and encourage them to de-clutter and remove their yard gnomes.

2) Pricing.  My dad (Walter Coley) or Ron Morgan (Lake Dog Appraisal) as appraiser could give them the hard news:  “It ain’t worth what it was in ‘06.” If they’re a spec builder, this might include a (loving) slap and a stern “I don’t care what you’ve got in it.”

3) Marketing.  Pan back to me and I’ll explain that no matter the bad news, there is a way out!  There is a path to success.  Market hard – with first class videos and online marketing.  Forget billboards and newspapers. (Print advertising is as dead as the Boston Globe.)

Sure – I’m farming out the tough love and I get to be Mr. Cool.  But what’s the point of having your own show if you’re not the hero of every episode?

I am helping many buyers right now who are focused on foreclosures and short sales.  I even have a few listed for sale (that are waterfront).  Naturally, I’m getting a lot of calls and questions about the foreclosure/short sale process and how Lake Martin is reacting.

One of the most interesting comments came came from a man who was talking to another guy about buying a boat. (Please note – this boat was a FSBO.  This was NOT a dealer.)  Anyway, the boat seller informed the other guy that

“There are about to be 600 foreclosures hitting the Lake Martin market.”

Is Mr. Boat Seller correct?  I give him about the same odds as my poodle running in the Kentucky Derby.

Can I prove it?  NO.  But the reasons I can’t are the same reasons why I’m pretty sure Mr. Boat Seller is wrong.

1) Lake Martin covers three counties: Tallapoosa, Coosa, and Elmore. When a lender forecloses a home on Lake Martin, or anywhere in Alabama for that matter, they must record the proceedings at the court house.  That means a Lake Martin foreclosure has to be found at one of three court houses.  Since no one (to my knowledge) puts any of this online, it means you must physically go to each courthouse, and physically search deed by deed. Good Luck.

2) Lake Martin does not have one paper of record. Any foreclosures must be advertised in “the paper” right? The Alex City Outlook is by far the biggest paper closest to the lake.  But there’s also its sister paper, The Dadeville Record, also in Tallapoosa County.  In Elmore County you have The Wetumpka Herald and The Eclectic Observer.  Coosa County?  Good Luck.  Therefore, it’s impossible to gauge Lake Martin foreclosures accurately by looking at physical papers or online.

3)   These catch-all foreclosure websites are incomplete and just plain wrong. Maybe sites like Foreclosures.com and FreeForeclosureReport.com work for metro areas with one dominant paper and fully web enabled county courthouse. Like I said above, Lake Martin is made up of 3 rural counties. Those aggregate sites don’t know Walnut Hill from Red Hill.  Most of the information I’ve seen out there is a year old, at least.

So where can you find the most current info on Lake Martin foreclosures?

Call or email an agent like me.

Sorry, but that’s still the best way.

And the only way to see the concert is on the water, by boat.

It’s an all day event on Saturday, July 25, with music starting at 11:30 AM and Jackson headlining at 6:00 PM.  Since safety is an issue with an event this size, the concert will be over before dark.

According to The Wetumpka Herald, the stage will be built at the water’s edge, over on the western side Kowaliga Bridge near Sinclair’s Restaurant. There will be a swimming area and dance platform directly in front of the stage.

Click here for a Google map of the Aquapalooza 2009 Lake Martin location.

If you want an upclose view of Jackson, get there early (boats can begin “rafting up” on Friday at 2:00 PM Central).  And please, have at least one sober driver and one sober first mate per boat.  The driver will need to be alert to maneuver, and the mate will need to be the extra set of eyes and help fend off other bumping boats.

There will be mooring buoys with lines in Kowaliga Bay. Attendants on Sea-Doo® watercrafts will direct traffic and helping with boat mooring, and a shuttle service will help you to and from your boat.

Questions about this concert?  Here’s a link to the offical Aquapalooza 2009 website FAQs.

Have fun and be safe.

Knowing what a huge fan I am, Robert M acted fast on Friday when I sent out this post about The King’s upcoming appearance.  When I realized I could not be there in person, I sent out an impassioned plea for anyone to take some pics or video.  Al Gore’s “internet” did the job, spreading the word far and wide.  They say that Twitter has proved its chops with the Iranian voting scandal, but I say that Elvis at Jim’s Bait Shop trumps that.

Elvis is patriotism in a white jump suit.

I bet he was singing Burnin Love right here.

The King.

On behalf of all Lake Martin Elvis fans, thanks to Jim’s Bait Shop for making this happen.

If you would like to see a slideshow of these, click here.

Do you have any pictures of Lake Martin: wildlife, scenery, people? Add them to the I Love Lake Martin group on Flickr.  It’s free to join, and fun to share photos.

Or do you have any ideas or submissions for stories? If you do, send them to me on my contact form, and you could be the lucky recipient of the next ROM Award.

Tonight, July 3, 2009, the King of Rock n Roll, Elvis “The Pelvis” Presley, will be appearing at Jim’s Bait Shop, on Highway 50 in Walnut Hill, Alabama, just south of Lake Martin.

I am going to try to be there to get some video – but if anyone else can get pics or video – PLEASE send it to me.  Or better yet upload it to the I Love Lake Martin group on Flickr. It’s free.  Or you can use Twitpic or Flickr 2 Twitter to upload pics and video, just make sure to type in #lakemartin somewhere in the description so the rest of us can find it!

And yes, the above is a picture of the back of the self car wash & and vacuum area at Jim’s.  The King will truly be amongst the people.

And, as E himself said in King Creole, “Crawfish!”

This is the highest recorded number of lake home sales since May of 2007 when 23 were sold.

This should be welcome news to sellers of lake front property, who saw sales sputter on Lake Martin in April. This rally brings 2009 total sales to 53, slightly ahead of 2008’s May to date total of 50.

Could this be a return to normalcy for the Lake, and for luxury second home markets as a whole?

It certainly is encouraging to see the current month trounce the same month last year. Year to year improvements on units sold are seen by many analysts as a critical sign of real estate recovery, and it is a statistic that I am hyper focused on for Lake Martin.

The Bad News (Or Good News To Buyers)

One thing that sellers did not like to see was the total number of waterfront homes for sale in the Lake Martin MLS ROSE AGAIN this month to a total of 555. I can’t find another month on record that had this many for sale. This dubious honor will no doubt keep the balance of supply and demand in the favor of buyers, for at least several months.

A Look Ahead

I am not ready to call the bottom yet.  I would like to see at least three or four months in a row of slayings like this. One interesting figure is that, as of this writing, there are 34 water front homes pending in the Lake Martin MLS.

How many of these will close in June? Some are short sales and are taking a long time during the due diligence phase.  Some are not short sales or foreclosures and will close in July anyway.

Right now, praise God, I have been busier than ever.  I have 5 homes under contract and probably 1 will close in June.  My point is, in June 2008, only 7 sold on the entire Lake.

Therefore we have a good chance that if even half of current pending sales close in June 2009, Lake Martin sales will trounce June 2008.

Hey buyers – are you going to wait around and let all the good ones get picked over? Why not give me a call and let me point you to the best deals at 350k, 450k, 550k, and beyond?

To the reader – what do you think about this rally? Is this bull market cyclical or secular?  Are you ready to call the bottom? Why or why not?  Please leave a comment or reply below.

For Every Post I Have Written On Sales Statistics, See:

Lake Martin Market Statistics Category

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

You can also make the case that, on the Lake Martin concert scale of things, the Jazz Fest offers some of the best music, regardless of price.

A look at prior years’ Jazz Fests rosters shows you talent that you might pay heavily to hear: Joe Bonamassa, Derek Trucks, the Neville Brothers, Dr. John, just to name a few.

OPENING WITH A BANG

Don’t be late to downtown Alex City on Friday night, June 12, 2009.  The first act is old style delta blues master Kent DuChaine.   He starts at 6:00 PM, so you better get there early.

Kent is a throwback to the blues pioneers of the pre-1950s era.  He plays an old steel Dobro, with a slide, of course.  He plays anywhere, anytime.  In fact he has been in the Netherlands or something playing the week before Jazz Fest.  Kent has headlined blues festivals in Europe and the US, but (for some reason) you can still see him at local bars (Marty’s in Birmingham) and private parties.  He plays hard no matter if the crowd is 10 or 10,000.

I won’t go on and on about his impeccable blues lineage, except to say that through his days with Alabama blues legend Johnny Shines, he has a direct tutorial line to Robert Johnson.  In fact I think he plays Johnson’s tunes to perfection.  Most musicians I hear, even self billed blues players, do horrible justice to Robert Johnson songs. Most feel the need to try to have a modern interpretation that just falls flat.  Or, they attempt acoustic and just sound weak, tinny, and condescendingly corn pone hokey.  Kent plays Robert Johnson’s blues not exactly how he sounds on the Library of Congress recordings, but how he would have played them in a beer joint outside of Clarksdale, MS on a sweltering summer night. Think Clapton’s Unplugged “Rollin and Tumblin.”  Rip-roaring. Brazen.  Pillaging the countryside. Unafraid of the Crossroads.  Mocking the hell hounds.

DuChaine also expertly covers the Chess era of the blues.  Muddy, the Wolf, Sonny Boy, and the like. He switches effortlessly between the boasts of “Red Rooster” to the solemn wail of “Death Don’t Have No Mercy.” Kent also mixes in his own material with the masters.’  Solid Gold.

I’ve heard Kent play probably 30 times in my life.  He only gets better. Do yourself a favor and get a taste of real authentic delta blues.  I almost hate to label him like that, for fear that some may judge too quickly.  But, as my wife -  who “does not like Western movies”  – sobbed uncontrollably through the last 2 hours of Lonesome Dove, I think that most people won’t realize he played delta blues, they will just know they loved it.

CLOSING WITH A BLAST

Susan Tedeschi will be the last act for 2009 Jazz Fest, Saturday Night at the Lake Martin Amphitheater.

She is super talented.  I hear her a lot on the Sirius – XM Blues Channel.  From her recordings, I think we can expect more original stuff than covers, but that’s OK by me, because she’s really good.  It seems like every time I hear a strong, soulful female voice singing on the Channel, I check the artist’s name and it’s her. Tedeschi also just so happens to be married to former Jazz Fest headliner Derek Trucks.

Did I mention the Jazz Fest is free? Don’t let my lack of ink on the other acts deter you.  I’m trying to say that it wil all be good.

Full 2009 Alex City Jazz Fest Schedule

Click Here for Jazz Fest on Facebook

Click Here for Jazz Fest on myspace

When I wrote about the number of Lake Martin homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 in this post, I commented that there were many homes with the status of pending, meaning that they were under contract to sell.  I thought that if all those closed, we would easily beat April of 2008.  But apparently many of those are still under contract.  Maybe this means that May 2009 will trounce May 2008, because at this writing there are 28 pending and in May 2008 there were only 14 homes that closed. Granted, I am sure that some may be homes under construction, or condos with long due diligence phases.  I do think that Lake Martin (like almost all other markets) is experiencing longer times between contract agreement and closing.  Lenders (more specifically their underwriters) are requiring more and more red tape and documents during the process, so it is taking longer to close.

Here is the chart showing monthly waterfront sales on Lake Martin.  You can see the drop in April 2009:

Once you add them up cumulatively, you can see that 2009 is already behind 2008.

We will have to wait and see if Lake Martin has a surge of sales in May to make up for the stall in April.  Please keep in mind, these statistics are for the entire Lake Martin MLS, all realtors, all brokerages. Here is a look at the numbers only:

Obviously a big part of the equation is the amount of waterfront homes and condos for sale, aka Active Listings.  Take a look at this graph of the total waterfront listings in the Lake Martin MLS, starting in 2007:

You can see that in December 2007 and January 2008, the listings bottomed out at about 341, and then rose from there.  It looks like we also found a bottom in December 2008 and January 2009, but at 421, which was a 23% increase from prior year.  Will we continue to see more homes come on the market in 2009?  Personally I do not think we will see as many homes come on the market in 2009 because as I stated in this post covering first quarter 2009 sales, there are virtually no new spec homes being built right now. Sure, there are a few here and there, but I don’t think they will be a big effect.  Look at the huge leap from January to May 2008.  We didn’t see that this year, but we ended up in the same place.  My biggest question with supply is if we will have fewer new spec homes on the market, will they be replaced by Lake Martin foreclosures, short sales, and lender REO?

Looking Deeper

Since the late spring is such a crucial time in the Lake Martin real estate market, let’s take a deeper look at the numbers and answer some general questions like:

1.   Of all the homes for sale right now on Lake Martin, how many are homes, how many are condos, and what is the price breakdown?
2.  What is the price breakdown of homes and condos that have sold in 2009 so far?
3.  What about Lake Martin waterfront lots for sale?

1. Lake Martin Homes and Condos For Sale Right Now

If you check the Lake Martin MLS, there are 851 residences for sale right now.  559 of those are waterfront.  557 are on Lake Martin.  Of that 557, 158 are listed as condos or town homes.  7 are mobile homes.  So that leaves 392 single family homes that are on the water.  I think that is overstated, as I have seen many condos that are incorrectly designated as homes, but for now I will work with these.

Of the 392, only 23 are on leased lots.

The price breakdown of the 392 homes for sale on Lake Martin is:

2.Sold Homes and Condos

Here is how that same chart looks if we apply it to the 31 homes that have sold through April 30, 2009:

3. Lake Martin Waterfront Lots Breakdown

At this writing, if you run a search in the Lake Martin MLS, and you select “Waterfront” = Y, you find that there are 162 lots for sale.   If you look more closely, you find that four of those are on Yates Lake, seven on Lake Tallassee, one on Lake Jordan, and seven are on private lakes or “other.”  If we are focusing only on Lake Martin, that leaves 143 lots for sale on Lake Martin.  Here is the price breakdown:

In short, we have an big oversupply of lots for sale.  To put it into perspective, look at it beside the sales and inventory statistics, as of April 2009:

You read that right, yes, only 3 lots have sold through the MLS on the entire lake so far this year.  2008 was the same story.  It is interesting to note that in May 2008 7 sold, the equivalent of 20 months of inventory, which is approaching a balanced market condition.  It tells me that the market has the potential, in spurts, to act normal. So what’s holding it back? Price, I think.  Sellers, especially lot sellers, need to take a long hard look at price because they have 3 times the relative amount of competition than do home or condo sellers.

APPLICATION

If you made it this far, you have to be wondering, what does this all mean to me?

Buyers- If you are interested in buying property on Lake Martin right now, the biggest problem you will have will be sorting through all of the noise.  Yes, there are good deals out there, and yes there are still some overpriced dogs.  When your perfect spot comes available, will you be ready?  Call me, I can help you find your dream home or lot!

Sellers: Do not despair, you CAN still sell in this environment, but it requires extraordinary effort from you and your agent.  Call me, I can help you address these 3 crucial aspects of selling: 1.) pricing, 2.) staging, and 3.) marketing.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Sales – 2008 Year In Review

Lake Martin Sales – 2007 Year In Review

Or for every post I have done on the subject:

Lake Martin Market Statistics Category

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

Then you may be interested in the Third Annual Lake Martin Tour of Homes. Proceeds from the tour will benefit Children’s Harbor. Children’s Harbor serves seriously ill children and their families at the Family Center at Children’s Hospital in Birmingham and at Lake Martin, which is just south of Kowaliga Bridge on Highway 63

Last year the tour was of homes in Trillium. This year the tour will visit four homes in The Ridge designed by architects Bill Ingram and Bobby McAlpine.

The tours will begin at The Ridge Club from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Tickets are $25 in advance and can be purchased in Alexander City at MacDavid & Company, Cloud Nine, The Shoppes of Queens Attic, and Catherine’s Market. Tickets will also be available the day of the tour at the Ridge Club.

To learn more about Children’s Harbor, an extremely worthy cause, visit www.childrensharbor.com.

As always the event is sponsored by Alabama Power – details here.

Volunteers will meet at DARE Park in Dadeville at 8 a.m. The cleanup will end at noon.
Contact: Denise Walls at 256-215-4404, e-mail dwalls@lakemartineda.com, or sign up through Facebook.com, search for Lake Martin.

Usually they have a sign in post at Kowaliga Bridge, but I haven’t noticed that among the promotional items this year. It only mentions the DARE park as a sign in post.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the DARE park, it is on the eastern side of Lake Martin, off of County Road 34. Here is a google map:

[googlemaps]http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=DARE+Park,+Dadeville,+AL+36853&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=28.943777,55.634766&ie=UTF8&ll=32.82591,-85.7962&spn=0.015113,0.078214&t=h&output=embed[/googlemaps]