This should be the last update for preseason projections. I’ll hopefully have 2012 year-to-date stats going once everyone else joins the A’s and Mariners.

Are these outliers good or bad? Is this the noise of an individual system that gets canceled out when looking at a composite, or are these sleepers that no one else is seeing? To evaluate that question, I decided to see how Steamer’s outliers performed in 2011.

Consider this outlier from last year:

James Shields, 2011
CAIRO: -$3
Composite: $1
Steamer $20

Steamer was alone in predicting a big year from Jamie, but it looked prescient when he turned in a $27 campaign.

Here’s the full list of 2011 Steamer outliers (Steamer $, composite $, actual $):

Aaron Harang ($12, -$7, $2)
James Shields ($20, $1, $27)
Ricky Nolasco ($25, $9, -$10)
Kyle Lohse (-$3, -$16, $9)
A.J. Burnett ($6, -$6, -$11)
Bud Norris ($4, -$7, -$1)
Colby Lewis ($25, $13, $3)
Clayton Richard ($7, -$2, -$6)
Joe Blanton ($5, -$5, -$7)
Homer Bailey ($3, -$7, -$2)
Brad Penny ($0, -$9, -$21)

For guys that Steamer was optimistic about, Shields was the only clearly good pick. Steamer was way too high on Nolasco and Lewis, although the other projections were not too close, either. There’s a few toss ups on the list, but I’d give the advantage to the composite projections.

These are the players that Steamer was much lower on in 2011 than the other projections (Steamer $, composite $, actual $):

Daniel Hudson ($1, $14, $11)
Clay Buchholz (-$4, $10, $0)
Kyle McClellan (-$9, $4, -$9)
Mark Buehrle (-$15, -$3, $1)
Brian Duensing (-$9, $1, -$15)
Matt Cain ($11, $22, $19)
Jhoulys Chacin (-$2, $8, $2)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($12, $22, -$7)
John Danks ($2, $11, -$5)
Trevor Cahill (-$4, $6, -$6)

Here are my observations:

- Hudson, Cain, Chacin, and Buchholz are all repeated on the 2012 list of Steamer outliers. In both years, Steamer is projecting these guys much lower than everyone else. However, none of those picks worked out well for Steamer in 2011. (Buchholz’s injury made Steamer’s pick seem better, but the rates weren’t close.)

- As in 2012, some outliers are guys who had histories pitching relief. Steamer seemed to be right on McClellan and Duensing, while I’d consider Chacin a toss up.

- Buehrle, Danks, and Cahill are all guys with lower strikeout totals. Steamer’s pessimistic projection worked out well for Danks and Cahill, but not so much for Buehrle. For 2012, I’d probably group Jurrjens with Buehrle as low-strikeout guys who can probably defy Steamer’s low projection.

What does all of this mean for 2012 outliers? In the end, I think I’d tend to trust the wisdom of the crowds. Steamer takes some risks with its picks, but I don’t see where that has really paid off in the past.

CAIRO: -$2
Composite: -$2
Steamer: $9

CAIRO and the composite projections are in fairly close agreement, saying the most likely scenario is that Minor won’t help much in 2012. Steamer disagrees and gives a much more optimistic line. (Note that all projections are normalized for 128 IP.)

I see two possibilities for these extreme outliers: Maybe Steamer is missing something, and it is best to trust the safety of the majority. Or else Steamer is seeing something unique that the others are missing, in which case the outliers are great sleeper candidates.

Comparing the three systems this year, I was surprised to find that — as with Minor — CAIRO and the composite projections tend to be pretty close. There are only three players where they diverge by more than $10, and each time CAIRO is much lower (CAIRO $, composite $:

Matt Moore (-$1, $14)
Michael Pineda ($8, $18)
Brett Lawrie ($9, $19)

Whereas CAIRO seems to avoid extreme projections, Steamer is willing to go out on a limb. CAIRO only had 3 outliers from the composite, but Steamer has 16 players projected at least $10 away from the composite value. And all 16 are pitchers!

Here’s the full list (Steamer $, composite $)

A.J. Burnett ($2, -$11)
Edwin Jackson ($11, -$1)
Mike Minor ($9, -$2)

Alfredo Aceves (-$20, $2)
Jeremy Hellickson (-$8, $12)
Clay Buchholz (-$10, $5)
Josh Tomlin (-$10, $5)
Daniel Hudson ($5, $18)
Matt Cain ($11, $23)
R.A. Dickey (-$8, $4)
Jered Weaver ($18, $29)
Doug Fister (-$2, $9)
Josh Collmenter (-$5, $5)
Jair Jurrjens (-$7, $3)
Jhoulys Chacin (-$5, $5)
Johan Santana (-$2, $7)

Is Steamer on to something with pitchers, seeing what everyone else is missing? Steamer does have a reputation for more accurately predicting pitching, at least for the pool as a whole.

I see a couple of trends in that list of 16 names:

- High-strikeout pitchers (Burnett, Jackson, Minor). Brandon Morrow, Brandon Beachy, Zack Greinke, and Aroldis Chapman just miss the cutoff of guys Steamer likes more than other systems do.

- Pitchers switching from relief roles to starting roles (Aceves, Fister, Collmenter, Chacin). Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard just missed the cutoff.

- Pitchers with low strikeout rates (Buchholz, Dickey, Fister, Jurrjens). Jurrjens is a bit of a red flag, as projections have often underestimated him in the past.

Perhaps one way to see whether Steamer’s outliers are a positive or a negative is seeing how the extremes performed last year. I have dollar values for these three projections from 2011, as well as the actual 2011 dollar values. How accurate was Steamer in picking pitching outliers in 2011?

I’ll make another post tomorrow that examines how Steamer’s bold pitcher predictions have worked out in the past.

That criteria gives me 18 players, and I’ve added Adam Wainwright to the list, although he actually earned nothing in 2011. I see 4 basic categories of 2012 climbers:

5 Injured Players
Buster Posey ($16)
Adam Wainwright ($20)
Stephen Strasburg ($26)
Joe Mauer ($19)
Ike Davis ($7)

There are several important players for whom injuries were the main cause of a poor 2011. A full and healthy 2012 would obviously be a huge improvement. While a full recovery is expected for most, for others (Joe Mauer) lingering problems would not be surprising.

5 Big Prospects
Jesus Montero ($18)
Desmond Jennings ($17)
Brett Lawrie ($19)
Matt Moore ($14)
Jason Kipnis ($9)

Some players only got a brief showing in the majors last year but are in line to start 2012 in the bigs. They flashed their potential in limited time, and in a full season they look to establish themselves as solid fantasy players.

5 Lesser Prospects
Paul Goldschmidt ($10)
Yonder Alonso ($1)
Lorenzo Cain ($3)
Zack Cozart ($1)
Jose Altuve ($4)

Drawing a line in the prospect-sand, there are a few other guys who should benefit from increased playing time in 2012. None of these have the prospect pedigree as the players above, but they could still produce a positive value this year.

4 Down-Years
Hanley Ramirez ($23)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($11)
Shin-Soo Choo ($12)
Felix Hernandez ($28)

Finally, there are a few guys whose poor 2011′s are mostly unexplainable (although Choo would also fit in the “injury” category). A history of solid production is reason enough to bump these players back up higher in 2012.

First, I’ve added composite projections and Steamer projections.

Second, teams should be up-to-date as of today.

Playing time and save projections are also updated. The biggest change is bumping Ryan Braun up to a full season.

I’ll be trying to add ZiPS and Marcel soon. The biggest challenge is synchronizing all of the player IDs. I know there are still some things that I consider “fringe” features — quality starts, holds etc. — that are still not there and probably will not show up this year.

As for the future: I can warn you that my schedule does not look to be improving for fantasy ventures. I appreciate the encouragement that commenters have given here, but I’d advise everyone not to rely on updates here that might not happen.

For example, look at CAIRO this year and you’ll notice Reds prospect Billy Hamilton at $25, although he probably won’t see the majors this year. Stephen Strasburg is projected to pitch 55 innings, good for $7.

Clearly, something needs to be done to lower the value of minor leaguers like Hamilton that won’t sniff the majors. Something else needs to be done to bump up the value of guys like Strasburg who are coming off of an injury. That’s why the past couple of years I’ve added the option to the Price Guide to apply playing time adjustments to give a more realistic picture of 2012 values.

I’ve made a first pass at playing time projections for 2012. Lots of guys like Hamilton are projected for either 0 AB or 0 IP, removing them from the rankings. Strasburg now shows up with 149 IP, lifting him to a $23 player by CAIRO. (That seems high, but I think that’s due to optimistic rate projections rather than optimistic playing time.)

I’ve noticed that the playing time adjustment causes more money to shift toward pitching, probably more than is realistic. It also has sent catcher values into the stratosphere, which is also not going to reflect real drafts. Those are both usual tendencies for the Price Guide, but I’d like to damper them if I can.

I’ll keep tweaking the numbers as the spring progresses. There are a few low-impact guys that still need projections (e.g. Jose Lopez, Alejandro de Aza). If you notice any questionable omissions, please let me know.

Here are what I consider to be my top picks for 2011:

Mike Napoli is a round 10 bargain; Ian Stewart is a risk.
I noticed that these two players with ADPs in Round 10 had similar concerns — low batting averages and a risk of losing playing time. I thought that the lower offensive standards of catching made those things less of a problem for Napoli.

Really, all I was getting at was that even a best-case scenario for Stewart (good power and a bad average) would still only be worth a late round pick. It just turned out that both players far exceeded my expectations. Napoli did much better than projected, Stewart much worse.

Casey McGehee is a bad choice in Round 9.
McGehee managed to knock in 100 runs in 2010, but I commented that it looked flukey. There was some debate on this one in the comments at the time, and I argued that guys who hit 20 HR a year can’t consistently get that many RBIs.

McGehee, in fact, struggled in 2011 and finished up below replacement level. With 67 RBI.

Ryan Braun is a great choice at #9 overall.
It’s hard to pick an underrated guy for the first round. I thought Braun looked like he was a being a little undervalued with an ADP at #9. He ended up with an NL MVP and, absent a 50-game suspension, would be an easy #1 or #2 pick for 2012.

Ichiro is “perennially overrated in fantasy.”
There are always cheap sources of steals, so even a favorable projection for Ichiro wouldn’t merit the 3rd round pick drafters were using for him. His batting average continued to fade in 2011, slipping below .300 for the first time in his career.

Take Daniel Hudson over Brandon Morrow in Round 11.
Both guys were being drafted at about the same spot (pick #126 vs. pick #130). However, I had Hudson valued at $12 and Morrow at $2. Their actual 2011 values were $11 and $0.

A few other good sleepers I nailed:

Mike Stanton (ADP #140, finished #61)
Drew Stubbs (ADP #157, finished #89)
Hiroki Kuroda (ADP #175, finished #109)

So that’s pretty conclusive evidence of some amazing prognosticating ability, right?

Actually, that just tells you that if you make enough picks, it’s easy to pick out a few to brag on.

Here are three things that surprised me about CAIRO’s first round rankings:

Albert Pujols is still a top choice.
Pujols had a down year in 2011, failing to record 100 RBI or notch a .300 batting average for the first time in forever. With the possibility of a little age-related decline, I expected that he would be dragged down at least into the middle of the first round.

Not so, says CAIRO. Pujols’s down year really wasn’t that bad. In fact, he was only one RBI short of 100, and just a few decimals away from a .300 average (actually finishing with a .299). Combine that with an usual lack of top candidates, and Pujols still has an argument for being the top fantasy draft choice.

Matt Kemp could be for real.
My strong suspicion is that 2011 will be the best we see of Matt Kemp. He’s been a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a while before putting up a monster year across all five categories in 2011. I figured the .324 average was a fluke even if the speed and power were real. Like the Dodgers in real life, I figured fantasy drafters would put way too much stock in an out-of-character 2011 and overpay bad in 2012. This is just like the Carlos Gonzalez story of last year.

The surprise? CAIRO projects a .280 average for Kemp, and he’s still a top-ranked player. He’s basically only behind Pujols and Miguel Cabrera (and Ryan Braun) in the early projections. Even if last year was a fluke, Kemp still has the best shot at being a 30-30 player, and that kind of player is still a top pick in fantasy. I am still concerned that he ends up a lot like CarGo did last year, but I’m a little more optimistic, now.

Say goodbye to premium positions.
A key to determining player value is that you don’t look at a player’s total stats, but you look at their stats relative to other players at their position. This has meant that there are often players in the first round whose stats don’t compare favorably to slugging firstbasemen, but they make up for it by playing a premium position like SS or C. This is the basic argument for ranking Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, and Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in years past.

This is looking like the year of the 1B. Pujols is still a top choice, as is Miguel Cabrera. But the early projections have Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, and Ryan Howard all among the top 12 hitters.

Typically, the wealth of quality players at firstbase drags some of these names down into the second round. But other positions aren’t showing many players who can distance themselves from the competition. Cano is a quality 2B and Tulo looks like a solid SS, but CAIRO doesn’t see many players who can vault themselves into the first round with a premium position.

It’s still too early to put too much weight into projections; things will shift around quite a bit as playing-time estimates are added and more projections are added. But it’s looking like 2012 will be an interesting year for fantasy drafts.

I have run dollar values on Last Player Picked since the spring of 2009. Each of the last three years, the players that have had the highest projected dollar value are Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. In that order. For the last three years. That’s the definition of consistently great.

However, that pair’s run at the top of the first round may end in 2012. Hanley just finished up 2011 with a painful $3 end-of-year value. Pujols also disappointed from his high standards, finishing as the 10th best hitter in 2011. The top of the draft will look different in 2012.

So who takes their place as the #1 player going into 2012? My next choice would be Ryan Braun. He’s ranked as the #5, #4, and #4 hitter in my projections for the last three years. That’s consistency, and that’s greatness — the recipe for a top draft choice. The fatal flaw is the 50-game suspension that’s still hanging over his head. The first round is not a time for risk-taking, and right now Braun is a huge risk.

The elimination of those names really only leaves one player untarnished at the top. The Price Guide projections have ranked him #6, #7, and #3 over the past three years. That player is, of course, Miguel Cabrera. Your new #1 ranked fantasy player.

This is illustrated in some of the biggest drops after the change:

Chase Utley
Kendrys Morales
Johan Santana
Kevin Slowey
Marc Rzepczynski

Picking up time, mostly due to recent Spring Training news, include:

Brad Emaus
Dustin Ackley
Mark Trumbo
Mike Morse
Will Rhymes
Rick Ankiel
Brent Morel
Brandon Beachy

I’ll update everything in a couple of days as the votes even out.