Latest Solar Flare Activity

Possibly a treat in the works for aurora sky watchers. A Strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning Wednesday (September 6) when the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed Monday is expected to sweep past Earth. Sky watchers across middle to high latitudes should be alert during the next 48 hours. More updates regarding this to follow.

September 5, 2017 @ 00:45 UTC

M5.5 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm

Moderately strong M5.5 solar flare event observed around region 2673 on Monday evening.UPDATE: An update regarding the M5.5 solar flare event around region 2673 this evening at 20:33 UTC. The flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1472 km/s, along with a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) lasting 52 minutes and measuring 1600 solar flux units (SFU). Low energy proton levels as measured by the GOES-13 spacecraft are currently on the rise. Updated coronagraph imagery courtesy of LASCO C3 shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun and at least a portion of this cloud may be Earth directed. More updates to follow.

Solar Activity latest

2017-09-06T15:04:00.002-07:00

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels as Region 2673 (S09W36,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), produced an X2/2b flare at 06/0910 UTC. Though
this is largest flare this region has produced to date, no CME was
associated with the event. This region remained a magnetically complex
and active sunspot region. Region 2674 (N14W20, Fhi/beta) was inactive
for the period despite its potential. The remaining regions were stable
and inactive as well. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
coronagraph imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the
next three days (06-08 Sep), mostly due to the flare potential and
recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (06-08
Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 3,780 pfu observed at 05/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels with a peak flux of 210 pfu at
05/1930 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels for the next three days (06-08 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at S2 (Moderate) levels over the
next two days (06-07 Sep) with a chance for S1 (Minor) levels on day
three (08 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment declined to nominal conditions early in the
period. Solar wind speeds have been steady near 460 km/s. Total field
has been less than 5 nT, while the Bz component has been mostly
northward. The phi angle has been mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one
and two (06-07 Sep) due to impact from the 04 Sep CME. Elevated solar
wind parameters are expected into day three (08 Sep) with the onset of a
recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, in addition to lingering CME
effects.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to start off at quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (06 Sep). G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are
likely by mid-to-late day with the arrival of the 04 CME. G3 conditions
are again likely into day two (07 Sep) due to ongoing CME effects. Day
three (08 Sep) is expected to be at mostly active levels with a chance
for G1 (Minor) storm levels being reached due to the onset of a
recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, and any residual CME effects.

SWPC Real-time Monitor

2017-09-05T00:55:00.001-07:00

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels due to Region 2673 (S08W16,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) producing multiple M-class flares, the largest of
which was a M5 flare observed at 04/2033 UTC. This region showed steady
growth throughout the period, in addition to becoming more complex
magnetically. Region 2674 (N14E06, Fhi/beta) was relatively stable
producing only one C1/sf flare early in the period. The remaining
regions were stable and inactive.

Initial available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated a likely
asymmetric full halo CME was associated with the M5 flare from Region
2673. In addition, Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps were observed
around the time of the M5 flare, beginning at 04/2042 UTC, as well as 
10cm radio bursts. Additional analysis of the CME will be conducted as
coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the
next three days (05-07 Sep) mostly due to the flare potential and recent
history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (05-07
Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with
a maximum flux of 15,800 pfu observed at 04/1805 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux values observed a slight enhancement that was likely
associated with the M5 flare from Region 2673, but remained below alert
thresholds.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels for the next three days (04-06 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux could see minor enhancements associated with increased flare
activity, but is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained elevated due to influences from a
polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady
around 475 km/s for most of the reporting period, then began to increase
to around 585 km/s near the end of the day. Total magnetic field
strength was at a nominal 5 nT through about 04/1600 UTC, increased to 9
nT briefly, then leveled back off late in the day. Bz was predominately
variable, then remained southward for several hours, seeing a maximum
southward deflection to -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a positive
orientation, but began to show signs of rotation by midday.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue to trend towards
background levels late on day one (05 Sep). Nominal levels are expected
by days two and three (06-07 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
G1-Minor geomagnetic storming period at the end of the day, likely
associated with sustained -Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with
isolated periods of G1-Minor storming periods early in the period, as
the CH HSS influence tapers over the next day (05 Sep). Quiet conditions
are expected by days two and three (06-07 Sep), with a slight chance for
unsettled conditions, ahead of another CH HSS of negative polarity.

M5.5 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm

2017-09-05T00:36:00.001-07:00

SOLARHAM.com | Solar Cycle 24 | Space Weather and Amateur Radio Website

M5.5 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm

CME analysis in progress Space Weather Prediction Center

2017-09-05T00:30:00.001-07:00

CME analysis in progress | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Forecasters are in the process of analyzing a coronal mass ejection that could reach Earth within the next two days. The CME was associated with an M5 X-ray flare (R2 radio blackout) that was observed on 4 Sep 2017 at approx 1633 EDT (04/2033 UTC). This event appears to have originated from an active sunspot region (AR2673) near the center of the solar disk. As imagery becomes available, forecasters will analyze the data to determine if and when the CME will reach Earth, and what impacts may result.

Pokemon Go Canada: Pokemon Go Gear

2016-07-18T17:19:00.001-07:00

Pokemon Go Canada: Pokemon Go Gear

latest solar flare activity - Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm June 22 2015

2015-06-21T18:34:00.004-07:00

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm watch beginning tomorrow (June 22). The expected storm is the result of a full halo CME observed early Sunday morning. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora during the next several days.

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2367 was responsible for the strongest X-Ray event of the period, an impulsive M3.8 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC. A noteworthy CME from this event is unlikely. The most interesting event of the past 24 hours was a dual M-Flare event around region 2371 during the early hours of June 21. An M2.0 flare was quickly followed up by an M2.6 event at 02:34 UTC.

A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in coronagraph imagery and appears to be Earth directed. An impact to our geomagnetic field will be possible during the next 48-72 hours and could lead to geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Additional isolated M-Flares will be possible around both regions 2367 and 2371 during the next day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

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latest solar flare activity 2015 and Survival kits

2015-05-12T19:24:00.001-07:00

Solar activity remained at low levels. A C2 flare from west of
Region 2335 (S14W85, Bxo/beta) at 12/0302 UTC was accompanied by an
eruption visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 12/0248
UTC, and associated with a proton enhancement observed shortly after. 
Region 2339 (N14W19, Fkc/beta-gamma) remained the largest of the 10
spotted regions on the visible disk. There was no significant
development of any of the regions.

The location of the CME described above makes a geoeffective event
unlikely. Analysis and modeling of the CME support the west limb event
heading upstream of Earth with no significant impacts expected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (13-15
May) with Region 2339 being the most likely source.



Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit began at background levels but rose after the C2 flare at 12/0302
UTC mentioned above. Flux at GOES reached a peak of 6 pfu at 12/0720. 
Upstream at the ACE spacecraft, a maximum of 8 pfu was recorded by the
SIS instrument at 12/0855 UTC. The uptick in proton flux prompted a
warning at 12/0627 UTC which was later canceled.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to persist at normal levels over the next three days (13-15 May). The 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds while
decreasing back to background levels as the period progresses.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft saw signatures suggesting the
onset of the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) during the period. Wind speeds remained low through the
majority of the day between around 340 km/s to around 370 km/s. After
12/1700 UTC the winds began a steady rise in velocity to above 500 km/s,
eventually seeing a a peak of 605 km/s. Bt was enhanced above 5 nT
through most of the day, reaching a peak of 17 nT, while Bz saw a
maximum southward deflection of -16 nT near the end of the period.
Temperature has also seen a positive trend after 12/0400 UTC and
continues to increase.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to continue
to see enhancements from the CH HSS over the next three days. Wind
speeds are expected to continue to increase until early on day one (13
May) and slowly decline through day three (15 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
with minor (G1-Minor) storming conditions likely on day one (13 May)
with the onset of a CH HSS. On day two through three (14 - 15 May), the
high speed stream is expected to taper off, bringing geomagnetic
conditions below minor (G1-Minor) thresholds.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1151Z from Region 2339 (N14W19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 12/1850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/0649Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1459Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
12/0730Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15
May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 163
Predicted   13 May-15 May 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        12 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  019/025-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/45/25

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast march 2015

2015-03-25T23:29:00.000-07:00

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/Sf
flares observed, many of which originated from an unnumbered region on
the southeast limb and most from Region 2305. Region 2305 (S08E19,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in area, maintained an increased
magnetic complexity, and produced the largest flare of the period, a
C8/1n flare at 25/0446 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were observed with
available imagery and observation data.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once
again at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit returned to near background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at high levels through day three (26-28 Mar). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near
background conditions for days one through three (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued
influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream.  Wind
speed hovered between 580 and 500 km/s. Bt was at or below 7 nT while
Bz remained at or above -5 nT.  Phi was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The high speed wind stream is expected to gradually decrease through
days one and two (26-27 Mar). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) to
a negative Phi orientation is forecast late on day two. A recurrent
negative polarity solar wind structure is expected to become
geoeffective, with velocities near 700 km/s expected for day three (28
Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to
the continued influence of the positive polarity high speed solar wind
stream.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (26 Mar).  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day two (27 Mar) with the SSBC. Day three (28 Mar) is
forecast to see activity as high as a minor storm due to the onset of
the recurrent negative polarity high speed stream.

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast Oct 23 2014

2014-10-23T22:40:00.002-07:00

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25
Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    45/45/45
Proton     35/40/45
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 227
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  012/015-009/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/25

Oct 23 2014, Current Solar Flare Activity, current solar flares, solar wind activity, Latest Solar Flare Activity, solar flare activity, solar activity 2014, 2014, oct 2014


Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk, along with active region (AR) 2192 on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high. AR 2192 was responsible for a strong X1.6 solar flare on Wednesday peaking at 14:28 UTC. Unfortunately for sky watchers, the latest event again failed to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). The active region also produced a few M-Flares, including an M1.1 at 09:50 UTC Thursday morning. AR 2192 expanded to a size of 2700 millionths which puts it on par, at least in terms of total area coverage with legendary Cycle 23 sunspot 486 from October 2003. AR 2192 is now in a near perfect geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. The cluster still maintains a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and could produce additional moderate to strong solar flares. Elsewhere, a region located near the southeast limb produced an M1.4 flare at 15:57 UTC Wednesday, along with a handful of C-Flares. All other visible regions are currently stable.

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 - Oct 20 2014

2014-10-18T16:35:00.000-07:00

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/Sf
flare from Region 2192 (S15E63, Eki/beta-gamma) at 18/0758 UTC.  Region
2192 also produced a multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the
period and appeared to be increasing in both size and magnetic
complexity as it continues to rotate into full view.  The other regions
on the visible disk were stable.  A filament eruption (approx 8 degree
extent) centered near N15W10 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
18/0740-0938 UTC.  No coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this writing to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with either the M-flare or the filament eruption occurred.
      
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (18-20 Oct).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (18-20 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind
regime.  Solar wind speeds were steady in the 400-500 km/s range.  IMF
total field values reached 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward
component of -7 nT.  The phi angle was variable between negative
(toward) and positive (away) solar sectors throughout the period,
suggesting multiple solar sector boundary crossings (SSBCs).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels over the
next three days (18-20 Oct) with continued transitions between negative
and positive solar sectors.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions between 18/0000-0300 UTC due to solar sector
variability.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (18 Oct) through day three (20 Oct).

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 14 2014

2014-10-14T20:21:00.002-07:00

Solar flare storm activity Forecast  Oct 14 2014

24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. The five spotted groups on the visible
solar disk were stable, including newly numbered Region 2189 (N21E18,
bxo/beta). The only solar activity today resulted from two eruptions
observed well around the SE limb of the visible solar disk. The first
event was an impulsive M1 flare at 14/1837 UTC. This event had an
associated Tenflare (1300 sfu), but no other CME related radio
signatures. Shortly after, a second x-ray enhancement occurred, a long
duration M2 flare which peaked at 14/2121 UTC.  This event had an
associated Tenflare of 180 sfu.

Based on source location around the East limb, no Earth directed CMEs
are expected from these events.

.Forecast...
Based solely on the spotted regions currently on the solar disk, solar
activity is expected to be low for the next three days (15-17 Oct).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(15-17 Oct). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the next
three days (15-17 Oct).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions at the ACE spacecraft suggest that the anticipated
near miss of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 10 Oct, actually
produced glancing blow effects to Earth today. At ~14/1000 UTC, Bt
increased along with Phi rotations and a speed increase. Bt peaked at 16
nT so far, and intermittent periods of -Bz have been occurring. Solar
wind speeds peaked at 521 km/s at 14/2253 UTC.

.Forecast...
For the next 24-36hrs, solar wind conditions are expected to reflect the
continued glancing blow passage of the CME observed on 10 Oct. Bt is
expected to slowly decrease. Solar wind speeds are forecast to remain in
the 450 km/s range for the remainder of the period (15-17 Oct). Multiple
solar sector boundary changes are also expected to unsettle the solar
wind conditions for Earth following the CME passage, and through the
period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, as the result
of the glancing blow passage of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 10
Oct.

.Forecast...
Quiet to minor storm conditions have been forecast for day one (15 Oct)
as residual CME effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast for days two and three (16-17 Oct) as the result of waning CME
effects combined with multiple expected solar sector changes.

Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014

2014-06-12T22:24:00.000-07:00

 Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014

Solar activity reached high levels today as Regions 2085 (S20W58,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), 2087 (S18E43, Dac/beta-gamma-delta), and 2089
(N18E03, Dai/beta) all produced low level M-class flares.  The largest
flare of the period was an M3 flare at 12/2216 UTC from Region 2085. It
was accompanied by Type II (est shock speed 1679 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps as well as a 10 cm burst (220 sfu). Region 2087 produced an M2/Sf
at 12/0421 UTC, an M2/1f at 12/1021 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 12/2113 UTC.
Region 2089 produced an M1/Sf flare at 12/2003 UTC.

Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Regions 2080
(S11W64, Dki/beta-gamma-delta), 2087, and 2085.  Slight decay was
observed in the trailing spots of Region 2085.  Region 2089 appeared to
be in a slow growth phase.  The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.   Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed off both east and west limbs throughout the period, however
none appeared to have an Earth-directed component.  SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery was only available until 12/1548 UTC.  Further analysis of
later CMEs will be performed as imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or
greater) for the forecast period (13-15 Jun) due to flare potential from
Regions 2080, 2085, 2087, and 2089.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jun). 
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor or
greater) for the forecast period as Regions 2080 and 2085 remain in a
well connected location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed was in decline during the period from a high of 570
km/s at 12/0203 UTC to end of period values near 355 km/s.  Total field
ranged from 2 nT to 5 nT while the Bz component was mostly north ranging
from -2 nT to +4 nT.  Phi angle was mostly positive (away) throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Two enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected by mid to late on
days 1 and 2 (13-14 Jun) from a potential shock enhancement from a CME
that occurred on 10 Jun and an earlier faint partial halo CME from 09
June.  WSA Enlil modelling predicts arrival times of these CMEs to be
around 13/1200 UTC and 14/1900 UTC respectively.  Solar wind speeds are
expected to begin to diminish on day 3 (15 Jun) as CME effects wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
By approximately mid-day on day 1, a possible glancing blow from the 10
Jun CME is expected to cause active conditions with a chance for G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming.  By day 2 (14 Jun), quiet to active
conditions are expected as CME effects persist along with the expected
arrival of a second CME associated with a C9 flare on 09 Jun by late in
the period.  Unsettled periods are expected to persist early on day 3
(15 Jun) as CME effects diminish, followed by mostly quiet periods.

X4.9 Solar Flare 02/24/2014 - possibility of a coronal mass ejection CME

2014-02-24T18:06:00.001-08:00

The X4.9 Solar Flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s. This indicates the possibility of a coronal mass ejection. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was also recorded. Despite newly renumbered region 1990 being close to the limb, it is still possible to be flanked by a CME from this location if it happens to be large enough. More updates to follow if a CME is associated. Attached video by SDO.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 171 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar Active Regions and Activity feb 23 2014

2014-02-24T16:13:00.002-08:00

Activity again reached moderate levels due to a low level M-Flare (M1.2) at 11:17 UTC Monday morning. Most flare activity, including the M1.2 flare, is being centered around former region 1967 which is now returning into view off the east limb. A dark core belonging to the long lasting active region is now visible in the latest imagery. It appears that 1967 is in an advanced state of decay and may no longer be a large threat for strong X-Class solar flares. We will have a better look at the entire region within the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, sunspot duo 1981-1982 remains stable as it transits the center of the visible disk. All other regions, including region 1987, remain quiet. There will continue to be a chance for an isolated M-Class event with regions 1981-1982 and returning region 1967 being the likely source.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 171
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/25

Major Solar Flare activity - jan 7 2014

2014-01-07T14:59:00.000-08:00

Major Solar Flare Detected + CME
A major solar flare measuring X1.2 was detected on Tuesday afternoon peaking at 18:30 UTC. The source of the eruption was region 1943, with interaction between sunspot 1944. Because the flare appears to be long in duration, a coronal mass ejection is possible (see below). The blast site is in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. Attached image by the Solar Dyanamics Observatory (SDO) below, captures a "wave" of plasma racing away from the blast site.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 Jan 07 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels during the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09E06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest, most complex spot
group on the visible disk and produced the largest flare of the period,
a M7/2b flare at 07/1013 UTC. The flare had an associated 10 cm
Castelli-U radio burst with a peak flux of 409 sfu. This region
continued to exhibit growth, mainly in its leader spots, and produced
several low-level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 1946
(N09E01, Dac/beta-gamma) was the second largest region on the visible
disk and produced the second largest flare of the period, a M1/1n flare
at 07/0353 UTC. It showed signs of consolidation in the trailer spots as
well as separation between the intermediate and trailer spots, and was
responsible for additional low-level C-class flares. The remaining five
spot groups on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs of
decay. Analysis of any coronal mass ejection activity associated with
either the M1 or the M7 flare will be conducted as imagery becomes
available.
   
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-Minor to
R2-Moderate) for the next three days (07-09 Jan) with a chance for
X-class (R3-Strong) flares from active Regions 1944 and 1946.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1817 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1064 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Updated 01/07/2014 @ 15:30 UTC
CME Sweeps Past Earth
The ACE Spacecraft detected a solar wind increase to above 400km/s at 14:25 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 7 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer at 15:15 UTC. This signals the passage of an expected coronal mass ejection (CME) past our planet. The initial impact appears to be weak.

latest Solar flare activity and geomagnetic storms update 10/17/2013

2013-10-17T05:06:00.003-07:00

Solar activity is currently at relatively low levels with numerous C-Class flares detected around sprawling sunspot 1861. The active region continues to evolve magnetically as it rotates towards the west limb. There will remain a chance for an isolated M-Class event within the next 24 hours. All other regions, including formerly active sunspot 1865 remain stable. A new sunspot is forming quickly in the southeast quadrant and should be monitored for further growth. Old sunspot 1850 rotated back into view off the east limb and appears to be stable at this time.

Solar activity was low. Region 1865 (S22W37, Dso/beta-delta) and Region
1861 (S10W57, Dhc/beta-gamma) were responsible for multiple C-class
flares. Region 1861 produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/0920 UTC with
associated weak types II (est. shock speed 548 km/s) and IV radio
sweeps. After analysis, the associated CME was determined to have a
narrow south-western trajectory unlikely to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). The most
likely regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861
and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
remnant presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed
decreased from near 550 km/s at the beginning of the period to just over
460 km/s by the end of the period. IMF total field held steady at
around 4 nT, while IMF Bz intermittently dipped southward briefly
as low as -4 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (Away) orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind variability is expected to persist for the next two
days (17-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH HSS and the
anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct, now expected early on day
one (17 Oct). A return to ambient conditions is forecast for day three
(19 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 16/00-03 UTC due to residual CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a
slight chance for minor storm (G1-minor) levels late on day one (17 Oct)
with the anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October. Day two
(18 Oct) should expect a decrease, with quiet to unsettled periods
expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is forecast for day three (19 Oct).

Current Solar Flare Activity oct 15 2013

2013-10-15T22:45:00.002-07:00

Updated 10/16/2013 @ 00:05 UTC
Impulsive M-Flare
Sunspot 1865 produced an impulsive M1.3 solar flare at 23:36 UTC Tuesday evening. Impulsive flares are not generally known to produce large coronal mass ejections, however I will provide further updates if necessary. Continue to monitor this region for further flare activity. Image below by SDO using the 094 angstroms channel.

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1865
(S21W21,Dao/beta-gamma-delta) produced M1 flares at 15/0838 UTC and
15/2336 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) subsequently
occurred from the 15/0838 UTC flare. The event appeared narrow and off
plane from an earthward trajectory. The filament related CME from around
15/00 UTC was also determined unlikely to be a geoeffective transient.
Region 1865 maintained an east/west inversion line running through the
adjoined leader spots as well as a beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Region 1861 (S10W45, Dho/beta) showed slight growth in its intermediate
spots and was responsible for multiple C-class flares. A new region
(1872) was numbered near S15E67, and appeared to be  magnetically simple
and inactive.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period.  The most likely
regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861 and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to indicate the influence of a coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed ranged from 460 to 575 km/s
during the period. IMF total field decreased from a high around 12 nT
early in the period to lows of around 2 nT during the latter half of the
period. Intermittent incidences of negative Bz occurred throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind speed and IMF variability are expected to persist
for the next three days (16-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH
HSS and the anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct late on day one
(16 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS and
possible weak CME effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
day one (16 Oct) due to residual CH HSS conditions early before the
anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October late on day one.
Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on day 2 (17
Oct).  By day three (18 Oct), conditions are expected to decrease to
mostly quiet levels with unsettled periods as CH HSS and CME effects
wane.

latest solar flare activity 2013 Aug 25

2013-08-25T12:12:00.003-07:00

UPDATED 2013 Aug 25 

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. There were no reportable flares this
period. All regions presently on the disk were either stable or
decaying. A disappearing filament was observed near N33W07 at
approximately 25/0800 UTC. No associated CME was visible at the
time of this report. The situation will be analyzed further if future 
imagery deems necessary.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low (Below M1-Minor) for days one and two
(25 - 26 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity on day three (27 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels, reaching a maximum flux value of 3,575 pfu at
24/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (25 - 27 Aug). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (25 - 27 Aug).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased to near
background levels during the period. Speeds began at approximately 475
km/s reaching 400 km/s at the time of this report. Total field decreased
from 7 nT to 5 nT. IMF Bz was predominately positive until 25/0310 UTC,
when a positive (away) to negative (towards) solar sector boundary
crossing occurred. At that time Bz turned south and has remained at a
steady -3 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain steady around 400 km/s on day one
(25 Aug), before becoming enhanced on days two and three (26 - 27 Aug)
due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (Below
G1-Minor) with a chance for isolated active conditions in the nighttime
sector on day one (25 Aug) due to prolonged negative Bz. The field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled levels for days two and
three (26 - 27 Aug) due to CH HSS influence.

latest solar flare activity august 23 2013

2013-08-23T23:28:00.000-07:00

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and latest solar flare activity august 23 2013from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/2207Z from Region 1828 (N14E26). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

 IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Aug) and expected to
be low on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
593 km/s at 22/2215Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2205Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1857 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 Aug).

Solar activity was low.  Region 1820 (S12W73, Cao/beta) produced a C1 at
23/1557 UTC, which was the largest event of the period.  Region 1830
(S05W64, Dao/beta) showed minor growth while the other regions on the
disk were either stable or decaying.  A narrow coronal mass ejection
(CME) from Region 1820 was observed on LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at
23/0048 UTC, but was not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares on day one (24 Aug).  Solar activity is expected to be low for
days two and three (25 - 26 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels, reaching a maximum value of 1,860 pfu at 23/1710
UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to high levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Aug). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of waning
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.  Solar wind speed
steadily decreased from initial values near 560 km/s to end-of-period
values near 475 km/s.  The total field strength ranged from 6 nT to 2 nT
while the Bz component ranged from +4 nT to -5 nT.  The phi angle
remained in a predominately positive (away) sector throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to increase on day one (24 Aug) and remain
enhanced for days two and three (25 - 26 Aug) with arrival of the 21 Aug
CME and onset of a CH HSS late on day three.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
With arrival of the 21 Aug CME, the geomagnetic field is expected to be
at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (24 Aug),
decreasing to quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day two
(25 Aug).  Predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on
day three (26 Aug) with waning CME effects and the onset of a CH HSS.

M3.3 Solar Flare Detected 08/17/2013

2013-08-17T18:41:00.003-07:00

M3.3 Solar Flare Detected + CME 08/17/2013
The solar X-Rays are alive again. A moderate M3.3 class solar flare peaking at 18:24 UTC Saturday afternoon was observed around Sunspot 1818. The initial flare itself was fairly impulsive in nature, however the solar X-Rays soon rose above the M1 threshold as magnetic activity surrounding the region continued to reverberate. The flare was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) lasting 25 minutes and measuring 150 solar flux units. Type II and IV sweep frequency events were also detected, including a Type II radio emission with a velocity of 1399 km/s. Stay Tuned for updates regarding a CME.
CME UPDATE: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now confirmed in the latest coronagraph imagery released by STEREO Ahead and Lasco. The plasma cloud is very bright, but appears that a majority of the ejected material was directed to the south and west. An Earth directed component is possible however. Stay tuned for the latest updates.

SOLAR FLARE STORM aug 16 2013

2013-08-16T18:54:00.003-07:00

Updated 08/16/2013 @ 20:55
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A solar wind stream flowing past Earth remains above 700 km/s. A brief period of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) was observed early this morning at high latitudes. Additional flareups of minor storming will be possible today, particularly if the Bz/IMF component decides to tip south for an extended period of time. Stay tuned for the latest information.
UPDATE: A solar wind stream flowing from a geoeffective coronal hole remains elevated near 700 km/s heading into Friday evening and the Bz/IMF component remains fairly stable. Only minor geomagnetic disturbances (Kp=4) have been detected today so far. There will remain a chance for isolated storm conditions (Kp=5) at high latitudes tonight. Be on the lookout for visible aurora should geomagnetic conditions allow.

Solar activity is currently low with only minor B-Class activity detected within the past 12 hours and an impulsive C1.3 flare moments ago at 12:47 UTC around Sunspot 1818. Both regions 1817 and 1818 have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event. A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.
UPDATE: 1817 again appears to be weakening, but 1818 retains a delta configuration and is currently producing impulsive C-Class solar flares.
A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.

latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013

2013-08-15T21:32:00.000-07:00

 latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period, a
C2/Sf flare, erupted from Region 1818 (S07W07, Dki/beta) at 15/1756 UTC.
The region continued to exhibit a horizontal shear line and slight areal
growth over the period. The other region of interest, Region 1817
(S21W31, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited some intermediate spot decay
but redeveloped intermixed magnetic fields including a weak delta within
the large leader spot. The region was responsible for a C1/Sf at 15/1835
UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the period; Region 1822
(S08E57, Dao/beta) rapidly evolved on the disk and Region 1823 (S07E72,
Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the disk. The remaining spot groups were either
stable or in slight decay. At about 14/2000 UTC, both SDO/AIA 304 and
GONG H-alpha imagery observed a 21 degree long filament eruption
centered near S28W70. At 14/2200 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed 
a slow-moving CME off the SW limb with a majority of the ejecta directed
just south of the ecliptic plane. WSA Enlil analysis indicated this CME
did not have an Earth-directed component.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (16 -
18 Aug) with a chance for M-class activity (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, for
the next three days (16 - 18 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels for the
next three days (16 - 18 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft were consistent with
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) conditions as Earth remained
under the influence of (-) CH54. Winds speeds began the period at around
475 km/s and remained steady at this speed through about 15/1130 UTC. A
gradual rise was then observed to about 600 km/s through 15/1845 UTC
where speeds remained steady through the end of the period.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt varied between 4 nT and 11 nT
while the Bz component of the IMF varied between +11 to -9 nT. Phi was
in a predominately negative (toward) orientation through about 15/1000
UTC when it became variable between negative and positive (away).

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions should continue to reflect CH HSS effects for the
next two days (16 - 17 Aug). Peak speeds are forecast to be in the 550
km/s to 600 km/s range as the bulk of CH54 becomes more geoeffective. By
day three (18 Aug), solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease as
CH HSS effects began to wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods on day one (16 Aug) as CH HSS effects
persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (17 Aug)
becoming mostly quiet on day three (18 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane

latest current solar flare storm activity 02 Jul 2013

2013-07-02T20:58:00.001-07:00

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
02/1749Z from Region 1785 (S11E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (03 Jul, 04 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (05 Jul).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 498 km/s at
01/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4429 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (04 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jul).


III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green