http://www.latinamericamonitor.com Latin America Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2013, Business Monitor International Ltd Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator Colombia's main left-wing insurgent group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), carried out two attacks in late July, which left 19 soldiers dead. Ongoing violence between the Farc and the government, makes us sceptical that the current peace negotiations between the two sides will result in a definitive end to violence. Indeed, there are growing signs that there is a disconnect between Farc leadership on the negotiating table and Farc members on the ground. Even if a peace accord were to be signed, the lucrative illicit activities that finance the Farc's operations will likely continue even if the group dissolves or breaks into smaller factions. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163613/Colombia.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Brazil's Short-Term Political Risk Rating remains steady at 69.6 out of 100 this month, after falling from 70.8 in June. This followed a downward revision to the 'Public unrest' sub-component of the rating after several weeks of widespread public protests in June, which saw the country's 'Social stability' score fall to 60.0, from 65.0 previously. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163612/Brazil.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Peru's nuevo sol has largely missed out on the rally seen in most regional FX since mid-July, continuing to trade near its recent lows at PEN2.7780/US$. This is broadly in line with our view that deteriorating balance of payments dynamics, slowing growth, weaker sentiment, and a relatively strong US dollar would mean no significant upside for the unit following the May/June sell-off. However, further weakness would pose downside risks to our forecast for the unit to average PEN2.6500/US$ this year. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163610/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Peru.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Venezuela's Information Ministry stated that a delegation of the Chinese Development Bank will visit Caracas in August to discuss a loan to the joint China-Venezuela development fund. Since 2007, China has lent Venezuela more than US$40bn, and it has been mentioned that the new loan could reach US$5bn. We expect Venezuela will remain highly reliant on Chinese financing, as elevated levels of political uncertainty increase foreign investors' caution towards the country. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163611/Venezuela.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Brazil's foreign reserves contracted by 1.2% year-on-year in June, marking the first such contraction since May 2009. This comes as the central bank has intervened to support the real in recent months, as the unit has come under significant selling pressure. While we are forecasting a modest 0.5% increase in foreign reserves this year to US$375.0bn, we highlight downside risks to this view should the central bank continue to sell dollar-denominated assets in order to shore up the currency in the coming months. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163608/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Brazil.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Peruvian President Ollanta Humala's approval ratings have declined significantly in recent months on the back of continued concerns over high levels of crime and rising social unrest. With no short-term solutions to high crime rates or tensions over education and public service reforms on the horizon, we believe that Humala will face a more challenging political landscape in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of policy U-turns and further downgrades to our Short-Term Political Risk Rating in the coming months. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163609/Humala-Unable-To-Escape-Structural-Issues.html Mon, 15 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT The congressional appointment of one constitutional court judge and the country's ombudsman, as part of a larger set of appointments including five judges and three central bank board members has caused a political storm in recent weeks. Following public outcry over the appointees' qualifications and questions as to whether they were chosen due to backroom dealings between political parties, Peruvian President Ollanta Humala called for Rolando Sousa and Pilar Freitas to step down. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163607/Peru.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Venezuela's foreign reserves contracted by 9.4% year-on-year in June to US$25.8bn. Since peaking at US$29.9bn in December 2012, reserves have been trending lower due to a deterioration in exports, as well as reliance on reserves its usage to finance government spending. We expect both of these dynamics to continue over the coming months, as weak oil exports and an elevated fiscal deficit will continue to pose downward pressure on reserves. We therefore forecast foreign reserves to decline to US$23.0bn by end-2013, a level equal to 4.8 months of import cover. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163606/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Venezuela.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Brazilian unemployment ticked up to 6.0% in May, reaching the highest level since April 2012. While the jobless rate generally trends higher into Q2 before falling in the latter half of the year, we believe that the end-year unemployment rate will rise in the coming years. This comes as the Brazilian economy is facing a period of more moderate economic activity, feeding through to a looser labour market going forward. We forecast end-year unemployment to rise to 5.4% this year and 5.5% next year, up from 4.6% in 2012. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163605/Brazil.html Fri, 26 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT With Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's approval ratings having declined significantly in recent weeks following the outbreak of widespread protests in June, there has been increasing media speculation that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva might replace Rousseff as the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores' presidential candidate in 2014. Indeed, a recent poll by Ibope and O Estado São Paulo indicates that 41.0% of Brazilians would vote for Lula if the former president decides to run next year, compared to voting intentions of just 30.0% for Rousseff. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163604/Brazil.html Fri, 26 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT On July 3, the governments of Brazil and Mexico issued statements in support of Bolivian President Evo Morales, whose flight on July 2 from Moscow was diverted to Vienna after France, Portugal, Spain and Italy refused his jet authorisation to land to refuel. While the denials of permission officially came for technical reasons, the president has asserted that the planes were diverted on suspicion that fugitive US whistleblower Edward Snowden was on board. Morales has since called for formal apologies from the respective European governments. Despite moderate tensions, we do not expect a full-on diplomatic crisis to emerge in the coming weeks. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163603/Bolivia.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Ecuador released its Q213 unemployment rate in July, which showed a rise to 4.9% from the historically low Q113 figure of 4.6%, in line with our expectations. Indeed, we believe that slowing economic growth will continue to negatively affect the labour market in the coming months, and we forecast unemployment to reach 6.0% by end-2013. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163601/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Ecuador.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Consumer price inflation ticked up slightly to 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, from May's 4.7% y-o-y figure. We forecast that inflation will increase to 6.0% by year-end 2013, as the central bank's attempts to sterilise the Bolivian boliviano by expanding the money supply will lead to a moderate spike in consumer prices. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163600/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bolivia.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Ecuador's government has been embroiled in recent weeks by questions over the source of media leaks of email conversations between high-ranking officials. The emails, which included those of President Rafael Correa, were leaked to Univisión, the US-based Spanish-language TV network. The government has pointed to a number of potential culprits, ranging from Wikileaks founder Julian Assange to the US Central Intelligence Agency. In moving forward, we believe Correa will have to weigh the domestic political upside of challenging alleged US involvement publically, versus his stated desire to secure the renewal of a trade preference treaty for Ecuadorean agricultural exports to the US, set to expire in the coming weeks. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163599/Ecuador.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Colombian consumer price inflation ticked up to 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, from 2.0% y-o-y in May. We expect demand-side price pressures to pick up over the coming months as private consumption improves, supported by near record low interest rates and declining unemployment. We expect supply-side price pressures to remain relatively subdued, as a weak external environment, driven by slower Chinese growth, will drive weaker commodity prices. We therefore forecast inflation to increase gradually to reach 2.8% y-o-y by end-2013. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/163598/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Colombia.html Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT