Laurie's Tennis articles

2026 US Open Contenders - Women

2026-08-30T16:20:56.288-07:00

We took at a look at the men’s contenders for the 2026 US Open. Let’s now preview the women’s event. This year has a wide-open feel, where anyone can win.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka is the World Number 1 player and current US Open champion. In fact, Sabalenka has won the previous two editions and participated in the last three finals. Should she get to this year’s final, I will start to get Ivan Lendl vibes.

From 1982 to 1989 Lendl played in eight consecutive US Open finals, winning three of them. Lendl was clear number 1 for large parts of the 1980s but was not always a universally popular figure. Sabalenka evokes similar emotions with certain tennis fans. As for the US Open, Sabalenka will not be a lock for the title, as she has struggled.

She lost to Elena Rybakina at the Australian Open final. Lost fairly easily to Naomi Osaka in Wimbledon and at the French Open was upset by journeywoman player Diana Shnaider, even losing the 3rd set 6-0….

Sabalenka also had a non-descript hardcourt season, losing to Alexandrova in Canada and Bejlik in Cincinnati, both at the 4^th round stage. This is unusual as hardcourts is Sabalenka's domain, she has won 21 hardcourt titles out of 24 overall.

To win the US Open, Sabalenka will need to find the form she had from January to March where she won three titles and played in four finals.

There are a number of challengers, she is aware of this. In previous years, what got her into trouble were wild and wayward shots, where she appeared incapable of curtailing her mistakes and shots hitting the backboard. If she can reign this in successfully like 2024 & 225, she is still the best hardcourt player in the world.

I would tentatively make her favourite as she is defending champion. If things go to plan, she could play 3rd seed Jessica Pegula in the semifinal.

Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff is the consummate perennial contender on the WTA Tour. Gauff is there or thereabouts in most tournaments she enters and will be the case at this US Open. Plus Gauff will be feeling in good shape, having won Cincinnati last weekend beating Jessica Pegula in that final.

Champion in 2023, Gauff is a fans favourite and can rely on them to give her a lift through difficult moments. As number 4 seed, the path to the final will not be an easy one, and she could face Rybakina in the semifinal. Despite the goodwill and consistent results, everything is a struggle for Gauff on a tennis court. For an American hardcourt player, Gauff acquired a game as a junior that can be described as confusing. Her serve can be an asset and a liability all at the same time. She can serve 120mph (192 kph) and also hit 15 double faults....

As for her much maligned forehand, I always maintain her stance is the issue and not the grip. Since tennis has been a sport, amateur and professional, we have seen western grips for decades. Sergi Bruguera, Jim Courier, Iga Swiatek, Novak Djokovic among many others. What gets Gauff into trouble is she instinctively opens up her body and lets the ball come onto her, often pivoting off the backfoot. Whereas the best players go after the ball, either using a semi open stance or closed stance (depending on the shot required) and thus are in more control of their destiny. In fact, players who open their body too much and pivot off the backfoot include Amelie Mauresmo and Brenda Schultz. Semi open and closed stances allow the player to get on the front foot.

This is holding Gauff back from her full potential such as the number 1 ranking. Either way, Gauff is still a major contender here, due to her elite speed and athleticism. Also her willingness to run, fight and top-level backhand. If she can negotiate her rounds carefully, she will have a great opportunity either against a not 100% Rybakina or another challenger coming through that section of the draw. I make her 2^nd favourite.

Elena Raybakina

This is a tricky one. Rybakina is current Australian Open champion and is having a decent season. Rybakina can also become Number 1 in the world, but she experienced an unfortunate turn of events. Rybakina injured her ankle during the Cincinnati tournament and withdrew.

However, she has decided to play the US Open so we do not know what to expect. The fact she is able to play is good news. That could be where the good news ends depending on how she reacts to treatment and her 1^st round match. Which will be against Thea Frodin. As mentioned, Rybakina is having a decent season, she won the Australian Open in January and Stuttgart in April on indoor clay. She also lost Indian Wells to Sabalenka in March and lost relatively easily to Iga Swiatek in the Canadian Open final.

Despite a major victory and chance to be number 1, I have the feeling of being underwhelmed with Rybakina. She had a poor French Open, losing in the 2^nd round to Yuliia Starodubtseva and didn't do much better at Wimbledon. Losing in the 3^rd round to Elise Mertens, disappointing considering she should be a favourite on grass every year.

The issue seems to be that Rybakina has that languid style. This is not very conducive to moving forward all the way to the very top. We have seen quiet players before who were number 1. Pete Sampras, Steffi Graf, Justine Henin. But these players brought intensity which intimidated their opponents. They did not let up during a match, keeping the pressure up. Rybakina does not keep the pressure up for long enough periods on her opponents. She plays too much within herself, does not let it all out. This is further complicated by the fact that unlike the players mentioned above, she does not have their athleticism or fast twitch fibres.

Rybakina needs to improve her movement considerably to become number 1 for an extended period. She has the serve, return and the shots.

As for the US Open, she has gone from one of the clear favourites to outsider. Unless the injury does not cause a problem. She could play Gauff in the semifinal if she can get that far, lot of obstacles along the way.

Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula has got close to glory the last two seasons at the US Open. In 2024, she made it all the way to the final losing out to Sabalenka. In 2025, Sabalenka beat her again, this time in the semifinal. You could argue if not for Sabalenka, Pegula could be champion. Of course, that would be simplistic but she is for sure a contender for this US Open.

Pegula should go into the Open in good spirits. She made the final of Cincinnati just last weekend, losing out to Coco Gauff in straight sets. She has also been to finals in Washington, Berlin (losing both), Dubai and Charleston (winning both). Pegula made the semifinal of the Australian Open and quarterfinal of Wimbledon where she lost to Gauff. In between those good results her form has been slightly patchy; which reflects the WTA Tour. Players go in and out of form during a long season, lot of travel and switching of surfaces.

For Pegula to succeed everything will have to go her way. She's slightly on the shorter side at 5 ft 7 (1 metre 70) but possesses great athletic ability. That pretty much puts her in the "grinding" style category, she can chase balls down all day and stay in points. Pegula's two limiters are not a strong enough serve and unwillingness to get to net to finish points. I notice Pegula creates mid court balls she can use to attack the net, but hustles back to the baseline instead. This is a mindset which will cost her time and again unless she can be much more committed to the cause.

It is possible for Pegula to have a great run again with the crowd support. Winning a final against one of the best players in the world will be a very difficult assignment.

Other Players To Watch

Iga Swiatek

Champion in 2022 and for a long stretch the dominant number 1. However, Swiatek has become a streaky player. Capable of winning big titles like Wimbledon last year and Canada in early August but also capable of getting knocked out early to journeywomen players. I liken her demise to Jim Courier from late 1993 onwards when he lost his number 1 position and never recovered. He still had good results but lost to a lot of journeymen.

Besides their fall from number 1, their games are also remarkably similar. Both rely on the into out forehand with western grip to dominate opponents. But when you play such a typical game, you do get figured out eventually. Plus, that style demands a lot of physical energy.

Swiatek is a contender at number 8 seed but her confidence is not 100%, anything can happen.

Mirra Andreeva

Seeded 5 and current French Open champion, Andreeva is the first teenager to win a major tournament since Coco Gauff in 2023 at the US Open. After her French Open win, she has gone off the radar a bit with innocuous results particularly during the hardcourt season. Perhaps to be expected, she is still a teenager and will come back strong soon. This US Open might be too soon.

Amanda Anisimova

Finalist at both Wimbledon and US Open in 2025, Anisimova has proven she can get far in major tournaments. It's when she gets to the final the problems begin. A distinct lack of control gets exposed for the whole world to see. Not sure if it is nerves, after all she is good enough to get there. But also there is a problem with her game, she needs more variety and more topspin to keep the ball in when the nerves kick in. Seeded 10 but with a fair wind can go far again.

Naomi Osaka

Osaka was champion in 2018 and 2020. Since then for a variety of reasons and then motherhood, she is on the comeback trail. Great athlete but for a long period her game didn't have enough to compete outside of hardcourts. Will be difficult to win a major tournament at this stage of her career, but she will give it a try.

Linda Noskova

Ranked 6 and propelled to world stardom with her sensational victory at Wimbledon in July. Noskova has a great serve and a throwback game; she doesn't appear to put a lot of topspin on her groundstrokes. Not sure that type of game is good enough to win a hardcourt tournament. She might need another twelve months of experience and technically fine-tuning things to be ready in future.

Karolina Muchova

Finalist at Wimbledon and US Open semifinalist in 2023 and 2024, Muchova is always a dark horse. Primarily as she possesses great athleticism and unique technical all court game. What is stopping her going all the way is constant injuries and that extra oomph at the vital moment.

2026 US Open Contenders

2026-08-28T12:55:26.051-07:00

The US Open Tennis Championships is upon us for another year. With hardcourts being a neutral surface, it is said only the best players win the US Open. With the withdrawal of number 1 player Jannik Sinner through injury, this event will be wide open. Let’s take a look at the contenders for 2026!

Carlos Alcaraz

In many ways it is logical and other ways very strange to put Carlos Alcaraz at the top of this list. Logical due to the fact he is defending champion and won the Australian Open already this year. Illogical as he has been out for five months with a serious wrist problem.

Therefore, Alcaraz is an unknown (known) quantity. How is he going to react to not playing lead up tournaments such as Canada and Cincinnati? Or even one of the smaller events? We will soon find out. If Alcaraz can negotiate the first three rounds without too much difficulty, he will fancy his chances. His opponents in the early rounds will also fancy the opportunity of a major scalp; always great for the journeyman’s CV. Alcaraz will fear no one in the Top 20 if he finds his game and rhythm in the latter rounds.

We will see if Alcaraz plays tentatively due to his wrist issue, or makes any technical adjustments to his game and racquet. Or, even if he is match fit and match sharp. Being fit and being match fit is entirely two different things in professional sport.

On that basis, other than having to worry about an ageing Djokovic in the latter stages, I would make Alcaraz favourite for this US Open tournament.

Alexander Zverev

2026 will be seen as a special year for Alexander Zverev, the year he finally joined the ranks of Major Champions. Naturally Zverev didn’t do it the easy way; his final in the French Open final against Flavio Cobolli was a five set thriller. This win gave Zverev increased confidence and he cruised to the Wimbledon final. Against Sinner, he even won the first set on a tiebreak. However, unfortunately for him, he could not keep up that aggressive play which gave him the lead. Sinner slowly but surely reeled him in.

We haven’t heard much from Zverev since then. In the 2^nd round of the Canadian Open, he lost in three sets to Tallon Griekspoor. In Cincinnati he did two rounds better but succumbed to Tommy Paul in the 4th. This would suggest Zverev will be undercooked going into the US Open. However, unlike previous years, this is not a scenario that will cause him too much angst. As in his mind, he knows how to play and progress in Best of 5 set major tournaments. The higher you are seed wise, the less likely you are to meet quality players in the early rounds.

This is important as Zverev is the clear number two player in the world but will be top seed at the US Open (Sinner absence). This means Zverev will play either Djokovic or Auger-Aliassime in the semifinal, provided both get that far. This is a great opportunity for Zverev to make his 3^rd major final of the year.

As for Zverev’s game, if he wants to win the event, he needs to play aggressive! Keep pounding the big serve, and unlike previous years where he often backed off in critical moments, he needs to stay on the front foot with his forehand. Plant the front foot forward and hit through the ball. Zverev must not revert to type and start pivoting off the back foot; that will eventually scupper his chances.

Novak Djokovic

What is there to say about Novak Djokovic? He is decidedly a part time player and played only five tournaments this year, yet he is still third favourite!

In fact, Djokovic, has made the semifinals of six of the last seven major tournaments. And the final of the Australian Open this year. For whatever reason, Djokovic finds that extra gear in Best of 5 set major tournaments. Each time he has lost to either Sinner or Alcaraz. This year in Australia, he finally got the better of Sinner in the semifinal, only to lose to Alcaraz in the final…However, with Djokovic’s solid game and fighting spirit, he cannot be discounted.

For Djokovic, with Sinner’s withdrawal, that is one less rival to worry about. If Alcaraz gets knocked out early, this increases Djokovic’s chances. He has the measure of Zverev at major tournaments. Zverev has beaten him once in a major semifinal, after a Djokovic retirement in the 2024 Australian Open. Djokovic’s biggest hurdle is Father Time. Every time he steps onto a tennis court he looks gassed (to use a colloquial phrase) after 30 minutes. This was very much the case in his defeat to Tirante in Cincinnati, and that was Best of Three sets. However, I know better than to write Djokovic off and will expect him to make the latter stages.

In terms of Djokovic’s game, is he able to shorten the points even further, considering his age profile? History suggests no. The grinding style is just too engrained within him. Even if he wants to go to net more often to end points, it is difficult. To do that his shots have to be bigger in the corners, but that means missing more and making more errors. Plus he doesn’t serve many aces.

It's a conundrum for Djokovic to figure out as he gets older. If he wants to keep chasing Grand Slam Number 25, that’s his challenge going forward.

Ben Shelton

An outlier on this list. Ben Shelton is currently ranked 9 on the ATP computer but has been as high as Top 5 in recent times.

Superficially Shelton has all things going for him to become a US Open champion. He has the personality, the power, the good will of the American fans. What has been lacking is the game to make it happen. Why is that the case? After all he has made a semifinal already.

His first semifinal was against Djokovic in 2023 when Djokovic famously “hung the phone up” on Shelton. This would be a good year to go all the way to the final, depending on the draw he gets.

Shelton defended his Canadian Open title earlier this summer and I was impressed with his standard of tennis. It’s the best level of tennis I have seen so far from him. I have been critical of his game for many years, especially his penchant to make wild errors when seemingly under no pressure or out of position. I remember watching him play Cazaux in Paris Bercy in 2024 and was incredulous as I watched his shots hit the backboard….A distinct lack of control. But in Canada I saw much more controlled aggression. Shelton was staying in rallies much better and displayed an athleticism I haven’t seen before. He was more light on his feet as opposed to heavy on his feet. He also hit a few stunning cross court running forehands which are definitely not usually his forte.

So, there are definite improvements this summer. The question is, is it enough? Is Shelton ready to go the next level and win a major championship? It is going to be difficult. His return of serve still needs some work and concentration levels have to stay at 100%. Shelton also needs to sharpen up those volleys. He likes getting to net but sometimes makes the wrong choice of volley. Shelton can also make life easier on himself by serve volleying in the ad court more often; take advantage of his lefty serve.

I would give Shelton a chance to win, provided he continues to improve. He can use the crowd to give him energy and a lift when things are not going great. He also needs to get his tactics spot on if he makes the semifinals and faces the best players in the world.

Other Players to watch:

Felix Auger-Aliassime

A semifinalist at last year’s US Open and quarterfinalist at this year’s Wimbledon, Auger-Aliassime is seeded 3 for this event. Every time I watch him play (including live at tournaments), I do not feel enough intensity coming out of him. He needs more intensity in his play and attitude if he finally wants to prevail over Alcaraz, Zverev or Djokovic.

Taylor Fritz

US Open finalist in 2024, Fritz is having a quieter year, troubled by constant injuries throughout the season. Fritz is a player that despite his success, does not have the feel or the game that screams grand slam champion. He needs a lot more in his game to bridge that gap. Zverev did it, so theoretically it can be done.

Arthur Fils

This is a classic example of a young player going into the US Open on a hot streak, having won Cincinnati last weekend. Question is, can he keep the momentum going? He is over his injuries and is displaying great athleticism around the court. I need to see more. Fils needs to develop a transition game and not over rely on cross court backhands; to make the step up to the next level.

Jakub Mensik

Another young player who made the semifinal of the French Open this year. Very much a dark horse but can beat a lot of players if he gets on a hot streak. Perhaps a year or two too early to be a proper contender.

Daniil Medvedev

Champion in 2021, finalist in 2019 and 2023, semifinalist in 2020 and 2022. Medvedev certainly has the pedigree to do well at the US Open. But only he can explain why in recent times he has decided to return serve next to the fence. He has knackered himself by running around next to the backboard and derailed his career.

Should Tennis Bring Back a New and Improved Indoor Carpet Surface?

2025-10-18T12:52:00.000-07:00

Tennis is at one of those perennial crossroads moments. There is always background noise on a topic which comes to the fore every now and again.

This particular background noise is about the pace of the courts professional tennis is played on, and how that affects the players and the product. A topic usually on the fringes in forums but now brought to public attention by Roger Federer’s views. Is it now the perfect opportunity for tennis authorities to re-look at indoor carpet as a viable surface?

Carpet was a prominent surface in professional tennis for four decades from the 1970s through to the late 2000s. Before carpet, indoor tennis was often played on wood, especially during the 1950s and 1960s. Most carpet surfaces were laid in colder climes where tennis could be played indoors during winter. Some carpet surfaces were laid occasionally to be played outdoors as well; which were often found in public courts. From the mid-1990s onwards there was a concerted effort to remove carpet tournaments and replace them with indoor hardcourts. These hardcourts were a new breed of acrylic surface, initially led by Plexicushion and Greenset. The bounce was higher, mirroring then cement and rubberised hardcourts and the pace was much easier to regulate. Sand could be applied to determine whether a court is medium, medium slow or medium fast.

Sampras v Becker on indoor carpet in Frankfurt, November 1994

I wrote an article called the Indoor Tennis Surface Speeds dilemma in 2012. In that article I quoted a then ATP spokesman who I spoke with over the phone. He indicated that indoor carpet was divisive as there were reports of many injuries on the surface and many players complained the surface was too fast. However, in 2005 ex world number 1 Jim Courier did an interview on BBC Radio where he said it was a pity indoor carpet was removed from the ATP Tour because that surface in particular encouraged volleying skills. Therefore it was by no means a unanimous agreement to get rid of indoor carpet surfaces.

Not only that; in contrast to the ATP spokesman, players’ thoughts on indoor carpet appear somewhat different. Ivan Lendl, tennis’ best player in the 1980s, won 91 tournaments between 1979 and 1994. Lendl won 28 hardcourt tournaments, 31 clay court tournaments including three French Opens, and a whopping 34 indoor carpet tournaments. This included five Masters Championships (now called World Tour finals). Meanwhile Monica Seles wrote in her book entitled From Fear To Victory that indoor carpet was one of her favourite surfaces. Especially indoor supreme in Madison Square Garden; which she won three times in a row from 1990 through 1992.

Other specialist baseliners who thrived on indoor carpet included Martina Hingis, Steffi Graf, Bjorn Borg and Jimmy Connors. Andre Agassi also won the ATP Championships (World Tour finals) in 1990 beating Boris Becker in the semifinal and Stefan Edberg in the final in four sets. Agassi beat two serve volleyers back to back on the surface that should suit them more.

Interestingly Pete Sampras won 15 tournaments on indoor carpet. That sounds a relatively low number compared to Lendl’s 34 and Borg’s 23 titles. However, Sampras played at the start of the transition era. He won three of his five ATP World Tour finals on carpet in 1991, 1994 and 1996 in Frankfurt. In 1996, the players voted to change the surface for the 1997 edition. Consequently his two titles in 1997 and 1999 in Hanover came on indoor hardcourt. Sampras also won Vienna on indoor hardcourt in 1998. In those finals he always faced baseliners. Kafelnikov and Agassi in Hanover, Karol Kucera in Vienna. Tennis was already shifting from attacking tennis indoors. In 2000, Gustavo Kuerten won the renamed Tennis Masters Cup in Lisbon on the slowest indoor hardcourt I have seen.

In the 1990s, seven surfaces were sanctioned on the ATP & WTA Tours:

Deco Turf II hardcourts used at the US Open and North American tournaments
Rebound Ace hardcourts used at the Australian Open and lead up tournaments
Red clay used in Europe and South America
Green Clay (Har Tru) used in North America
Indoor carpet (supreme in North America and Asia), Taraflex in Europe
Indoor hardcourts usually Plexicushion and Greenset mainly in Europe
Grass

Today in 2025, just three surfaces are sanctioned:

Red Clay
Grass
Hardcourts used both outdoors and indoors. Mostly acrylic based surfaces no matter the manufacturer, from Plexicushion to Greenset to Laykold.

Tennis is now played on hardcourts around nine months of each season. Starting end December in Australasia; through February in Doha and Dubai. Then March with Indian Wells and Miami. There are also some indoor legacy tournaments in Europe such as Rotterdam played on indoor hardcourt. Then we have the spring /summer season on clay and grass. Then back to hardcourts in July through November taking in the US Open, Asia swing and indoor tournaments in Europe. This culminates with the World Tour finals in Turin. If the argument that carpet was a health hazard, I fail to see how playing on acrylic hardcourts for such long stretches is a vastly better option.

Playing so much hardcourt tennis is counter intuitive as hardcourt tennis is less forgiving on limbs and joints. Here is a quote from the British Lawn Tennis Association (LTA) website regarding hardcourt tennis. “Rallies on hard courts tend to be longer and more taxing on the body than other surfaces due to its unforgiving nature and therefore requires players to be more fit and use explosive movements.” The authorities are well aware of the situation with hardcourts. With authorities often favouring medium slow hardcourts and heavy duty tennis balls, this makes hardcourt tennis a gruelling spectacle. Which favours physically stronger players on both Tours, like Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.

The calculation is that the paying public in stadiums and through subscription television want to see gruelling rallies more often than not. The philosophical question becomes is it worth playing tennis on hard surfaces for nine months a year? To the possible detriment of player welfare?

With the increase in injuries and the perennial nature of hardcourt tennis on the ATP & WTA Tours; now might be a good idea to re-look at indoor carpet for a variety of reasons:

Indoor carpet is easier on the joints and limbs than acrylic hardcourt tennis
The pace of the courts can be regulated and does not have to be lightning fast, as the perception often is.
If carpet surfaces is considered fast by modern standards, we should recall and realise there are many specialist baseliners who like faster surfaces. In particular, counter punchers who possess fast twitch fibres. Many of these players prefer faster surfaces to clay; from Lleyton Hewitt to Angelique Kerber to Agnieszka Radwanska. Also, clay court specialists like Lendl, Seles and Borg were incredible indoor carpet players.
Tennis can learn from other sports played indoors.

The fourth point here is the key point. Whilst the ATP & WTA removed all carpet surfaces citing the surface as dangerous, other sports have continued. Volleyball, badminton, squash, netball, handball are played on a variety of indoor vinyl surface. These surfaces are clearly safe to play on and designed to be friendly to limbs and joints. Companies such as Gerflor who were one of the providers of carpet to the ATP & WTA Tour continue to provide surfaces for other professional indoor sports.

The ATP and WTA can consider commissioning a professional manufacturer to come up with a more modern version of indoor carpet. Which would address the safety issues that the Tour felt was around in the 1990s.

If carpet was re-introduced on to the tours, this would alleviate the over reliance of hardcourts especially during the indoor season. Tournaments such as Rotterdam, Lyon, Stockholm, Paris and the ATP finals would be fitting candidates. This will give the players respite from constant hard surfaces. And as Jim Courier cited, could help to bring back volleying skills. Even if modern carpet can be regulated to medium pace, it is naturally slightly lower bouncing, which would definitely aid attacking play, providing a nice addition to long gruelling rallies.

Let’s hope this is something the Tours will consider to help the players and increase tennis as a spectacle.

Breaking Down 2025 Wimbledon Men’s Contenders

2025-06-25T17:15:00.000-07:00

We have reached that time of year again when tennis gets very exciting. Two weeks ago, in the French Open finals, the No. 2 player triumphed over the No. 1. This makes the next edition of Wimbledon very intriguing, as the No. 1 players, Sinner and Sabalenka, seek to reassert their authority. Today, we look at the contenders in the men’s draw. Read More...

When The Number 2 Beats The Number 1

2025-06-15T16:11:00.000-07:00

A look back at history – how will Jannik Sinner cope with losing to the world #2?

The French Open organisers will no doubt have been thrilled by finals weekend, with both showpiece matches going the distance at Roland Garros. On Saturday Coco Gauff came from a set down to defeat Aryna Sabalenka in a three-set thriller, before Carlos Alcaraz rallied from two-sets down to beat Jannik Sinner and defend his title, saving three match points in the process. At five hours and 29 minutes, it was the second longest final in history so there can be doubt that the Parisian crowd got their money’s worth.

It was also an interest quirk that in both finals, the world #2 got the better of the player in the ranking’s penthouse. Read More...

Is Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Last Chance Saloon?

2025-06-10T06:29:00.000-07:00

Stefanos Tsitsipas recently announced he will work with “supercoach” Goran Ivanisevic during the upcoming grass court season.

Now, on the face of it, this appears to be an astute appointment. But it comes with some questions and caveats. The question is whether Tsitsipas hired a coach of the calibre of Ivanisevic too late in his career? Read More...

Why Won’t Wimbledon Release Archived Footage?

2025-05-15T17:52:00.000-07:00

In recent times the tennis federations have really stepped up.

The first of half of the 2020s saw Covid-19, bringing the world to a standstill. With no concerts, cinema, sports matches to attend, everyone needed entertaining.

In tennis, the Federations surprised us, doing something I never thought would happen. The release of archive matches. Read More..

What Happened To The Return of Serve in Men’s Tennis?

2024-12-30T13:20:00.000-08:00

Recently I took a look at the current Top 10 players in the ATP rankings. I was asked to research Alex De Minaur and provide a technical summary of his game.

Whilst researching De Minaur, I looked at two other players in the Top 10 and got a bit of an eye opener. The return of serve stats seemed not to be at the level I would expect. For a number of years I have heard the return of serve is so much better today than previous decades. Players have to go to net with extreme caution. The racquets and strings are at its optimum; players should stay on the baseline and run side to side instead…

Interestingly, earlier this year I took a look at Pete Sampras’ return stats, as I was referencing him re my article about Carlos Alcaraz and his serve issues. As an attacking player, I looked at Sampras' overall return games won for his career. Statistics were compiled from 1991 onwards although he turned pro in 1988. I decided to take this a lot further. We are at the end of 2024. What was the overall percentage of return games won by the Top 10 in the 1990s compared to today? I decided to look at the Top 10 in detail in December 1994, December 2004 and December 2024.

Now before I reveal the figures, why return games won? Return games won are the best indicator of a player’s ability to return serve to any standard. Return points won, break points created, break points converted are much of a muchness. Mainly because most players tend to convert on average 40% of their break points. Some players break around 35%, others 45 to 50%. Some players create a lot less break point opportunities than others, so the percentage of conversion doesn’t tell us that much. However, actual return games won are a great indicator to tell how competitive players are throughout the course of a season.

So, with that in mind, and looking up the stats of each player on the ATP Tour, here are the return games won for these years over a 30 year span:

ATP Top 10; Return Games Won – December 1994
1	Pete Sampras	29%
2	Andre Agassi	34%
3	Boris Becker	23%
4	Sergi Bruguera	35%
5	Goran Ivanisevic	22%
6	Micheal Chang	33%
7	Stefan Edberg	31%
8	Alberto Berasategui	37%
9	Michael Stich	24%
10	Todd Martin	25%

ATP Top 10; Return Games Won – December 2004
1	Roger Federer	30%
2	Andy Roddick	22%
3	Lleyton Hewitt	30%
4	Marat Safin	21%
5	Carlos Moya	24%
6	Tim Henman	26%
7	Guillermo Coria	33%
8	Andre Agassi	26%
9	David Nalbandian	32%
10	Gaston Gaudio	32%

ATP Top 10; Return Games Won – December 2024
1	Jannik Sinner	28%
2	Alexander Zverev	22%
3	Carlos Alcaraz	31%
4	Taylor Fritz	20%
5	Daniil Medvedev	27%
6	Casper Ruud	24%
7	Novak Djokovic	29%
8	Andrey Rublev	20%
9	Alex De Minaur	32%
10	Grigor Dimitrov	22%

These return games won figures show a distinct trend. The return of serve among top ten players has got decidedly worse. This has a number of implications for men’s tennis which probably need to be addressed.

Why and how has the return of serve got worse? Let’s look at titles won by the same group of players on the list:

ATP Top 10; Titles Won – December 1994
1	Pete Sampras	10
2	Andre Agassi	5
3	Boris Becker	4
4	Sergi Bruguera	3
5	Goran Ivanisevic	2
6	Micheal Chang	6
7	Stefan Edberg	3
8	Alberto Berasategui	7
9	Michael Stich	3
10	Todd Martin	2

ATP Top 10; Titles Won – December 2004
1	Roger Federer	11
2	Andy Roddick	4
3	Lleyton Hewitt	4
4	Marat Safin	3
5	Carlos Moya	3
6	Tim Henman	0
7	Guillermo Coria	2
8	Andre Agassi	1
9	David Nalbandian	0
10	Gaston Gaudio	1

ATP Top 10; Titles Won – December 2024
1	Jannik Sinner	8
2	Alexander Zverev	2
3	Carlos Alcaraz	4
4	Taylor Fritz	2
5	Daniil Medvedev	0
6	Casper Ruud	2
7	Novak Djokovic	1
8	Andrey Rublev	2
9	Alex De Minaur	2
10	Grigor Dimitrov	1

These figures are quite clear. There is no ambiguity to be discussed. The current crop of Top 10 players has won the least amount of titles in a season collectively.

The question is, what is the reason for such a drop off in quality. There are a lot of co-relations going on more or less at the same time.

Take the Top 10 in December 1994. Despite it being the era before the internet really got going a few years later, at least six of the players are worldwide superstars and household names. If we look at the Top 10 in 2024, only three are household names (or four if you include Medvedev who won the US Open in 2021).

The other co-relation has to be the way tennis is played today. This is something I have been observing for a number of years with the Next Gen players. There are two key factors. Strategies for saving break points and strategies for breaking serve. To my eyes, both key factors have not been at the highest level for some time.

Strategies for saving break points: In tennis you are going to face break points, no matter how good you are as a server. If you get the first serve in, or hit an ace and win the point, then that’s too good. If you miss your first serve, then it is a problem. Previous generations mainly dealt with saving break points off their 2^nd serve by becoming more aggressive. That would invariably involve a kick serve to the backhand, attempting to illicit a shorter reply, get on top of the rally with aggressive groundstrokes, and get to net as soon as possible to avoid the long rally, This was a tried and tested method for the best baseliners such as Andre Agassi. Bolder players would go for the serve volley tactic. Either way, it was about getting the point on your terms as soon as possible.

For the Next Gen players, there is a tendency not to save break points by trying to get to net, it is more about playing the 2^nd serve and hoping for the best. I see no discernible strategies for saving break points; to take the pressure off. Taylor Fritz is a good example. It is clear he never developed a transition game as a junior player and does not recognise a short ball. Hence, if Taylor Fritz does not get in a big serve, he is in trouble.

Strategies for breaking serve: This goes hand in hand. The principles are more or less the same. To break serve, the top players need to be aggressive. Attack the 2^nd serve, attack short midcourt balls and put the pressure on at the net, turn defence into attack. Pete Sampras was one of the greatest players at implementing these strategies to break serve and get matches on his terms.

We look again at Taylor Fritz as a Next Gen player. Often plays safe instead of being aggressive. Not willing to go down the line with his shots to open up the court, preferring instead to implement crosscourt patterns, hoping for an error from his opponent. That is not a champion mentality. Under coach Darren Cahill, Jannik Sinner transformed his game over an eighteen month period.

Previously, Sinner had no transition game and his serve was just above average. Now he has one of the best serves on the tour and has worked incredibly hard on his transition game and volley. The improvements and hence results are there to see. Sinner has become a champion. It is a lesson for other Next Gen players that getting the basics right can help transform them to the next level.

I believe the surfaces today are also a factor. The ATP players in 1994 and 2004 competed for titles on grass, red clay, green clay, indoor carpet, indoor plexicushion hardcourts, cement hardcourts (American hardcourts), rebound ace hardcourts (Australian rubberised hardcourts). Today, tennis is played on grass, red clay, indoor acrylic hardcourts, and outdoor acrylic hardcourts. Great for the modern player but perhaps there is no longer the need to adapt. With on average slower surfaces, often players are waiting to see what happens as opposed to taking the initiative.

To summarise, in December 2024, five of the players in the Top 10 won fewer than 25% of their return games. In fact, two of the Top four only won 20% of their return games in Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz. Zverev suffers from passive play in big matches. I saw Fritz in Eastbourne win his 2^nd grass title there and he didn’t need to do much against a journeyman opponent. The low rate of return games won is a clear indicator that the modern player is not taking the initiative often enough.

This can only be addressed by coaches bringing through young players with a more aggressive and all round game, focusing on defence, attack and taking the initiative. Juan Carlos Ferrero brought through Alcaraz with this mentality and skill set from an early age. We need to see more young players coming through with this mind-set and skill set. Then the level of tennis in the Top 10 will improve again.

Previewing the 2025 WTA Season

2024-12-27T17:37:00.000-08:00

2024 was a year of flux and transition on the WTA Tour. A year which saw Ayrna Sabalenka finish number 1 over Iga Swiatek. The WTA Finals took place in Riyadh Saudi Arabia with all the controversy that brings. Plus we had the obligatory scandal with world number 2 Iga Swiatek failing a drug test and serving a one month suspension.

This sets up the 2025 season as there are going to be many more stories and continued fallout from the previous twelve months. Let’s take a look at the players set to have the biggest influence in 2025 if things go to their plan.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka achieved her dream of finishing 2024 as World Number 1 and validating herself as the best player. The year started great with her defending the Australian Open title, easily beating Qinwen Zheng in the final. Sabelenka also won titles in Cincinnati in August and Wuhan in October.

In September, Sabalenka won her first US Open title with a strong performance against Jessica Pegula. This victory atoned for the dreadful US Open final she played in 2023 against Coco Gauff. A final she threw away with a series of diabolical errors.

Sabalenka’s great summer and autumn run allowed her to move ahead of Iga Swiatek and claim the number 1 position, finishing the year with four titles won. Now, this does sound an underwhelming amount of titles for a year end number 1 player. However, we are in a period of WTA history where number 1 players win a relatively small number of titles. Swiatek won seven titles in 2022 and six in 2023 which is good. Four is quite small.

So, where does that leave Sabalenka for her 2025 prospects? Simple, she needs to become more consistent. Sabalenka went eight months without winning a title after winning the Australian Open, which is not good enough for an elite player. Also, Sabalenka has to start winning clay titles to avoid being labelled a hardcourt specialist. Sabalenka is competitive on clay and grass which makes it slightly surprising she is not winning any titles on those surfaces. She has won Madrid twice in 2021 and 2023 but no clay titles anywhere else so far.

How does Sabalenka become more consistent? In the past a combination of nerves and unforced errors did for her in big match situations. Hardcourts are perfect surfaces, not clay and grass. Clay and grass require more control and more improvisation. The ability to adapt to any bad bounces and varying conditions form day to day. Sabalenka tends to over hit the ball which is a problem if there are varying conditions. Hardcourt tournaments tend to be played either indoors or in very good weather, not much variation in other words.

Sabalenka's goals for 2025 will be to retain her number 1 ranking, win major tournaments and win tournaments on clay on grass.

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek had an incredible 2024. Not always for positive reasons but her name was on the front and back pages of newspapers worldwide. Mainly for failing a drug test in the late summer which caused her to serve a one month ban by the WTA. It is almost ironic that both Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek are two players who are decidedly low key but thrust into the limelight for failing performance enhancing drug tests.

As for the tennis itself, Swiatek’s 2024 fell into two halves. The first half of 2024 saw her win the Qatar Open, Indian Wells, Madrid Open, Italian Open and the French Open. The biggest titles bar the Australian Open won by Swiatek. However, the second half of the season proved to be somewhat of a disaster.

Swiatek made no impression at Wimbledon losing to Yulia Putintseva in the 3^rd round. Swiatek then had a shocker at the Olympics; losing to Qinwen Zheng in the semifinal when she was red hot favourite. The pressure seemed to get to her. After the Olympics things did not improve; a semifinal loss in Cincinnati and a quarterfinal loss at the US Open to Pegula ensured Swiatek won no titles for the rest of the year. Five titles between February and June, no titles from July to October.

This was not a good look and Swiatek took action, parting ways with her long term coach Tomasz Wiktorowski and hiring Belgian coach Wim Fissette. An appointment I question as Wim Fissette has coached a number of top players over the last five years, spending on average 12 months or less with each player. On the surface this appears a strange decision by Swiatek and I hope not one that smacks of desperation.

Where does this leave Swiatek for the new season? One of the reasons she changed coaches was due to her game being telegraphed by the opposition. Swiatek has cultivated a very typical game. Back in 2022 I took a look at her game in depth and noted her problems on grass. That has now translated to hardcourts. Swiatek’s serve is readable and she relies too much on the kicker serve on the ad court. Her forehand is also an issue; she seems to need too much time.

This is surprising as surfaces are not even as fast as they used to be. There are no indoor carpet surfaces, acrylic hardcourts take more spin and are slower, whilst grass is not as fast as previous decades. It is disappointing Swiatek struggles on what is considered faster surfaces (by today’s standards). Swiatek also tweaked her service action earlier this year but I don’t think that has made a profound difference to her game.

Swiatek’s task in 2025 is a relatively simple one. Make a splash early with Wim Lissette and reveal a more varied tennis game, with more enterprise and net play. Vary her serve more with some slice to go with the kick on the ad court. Plus win titles all year round, not just in the spring and early summer.

Coco Gauff

It is incredible to think Coco Gauff is only twenty years old as she seems like a veteran already. But she is still learning the game; making big mistakes, winning big titles, in the Top 4. Inconsistent is the word that springs to mind despite the success so far. We haven’t seen players so experienced at the age of 20 since Maria Sharapova in 2006 when she won the US Open, her then second grand slam title.

Of course with this success comes a lot of expectation, which Coco is not quite ready for. Due to the fact that her game still has some technical flaws which need plugging. As for her year in 2024, Coco started off very well, winning the title in Auckland and reaching the semifinal of the Australian Open. There she lost a tight match to eventual champion Ayrna Sabalenka in two sets. Coco then had a rather patchy period from the spring right through to the autumn. On the clay she lost to Swiatek at the semifinal stage of both the Italian Open and French Open. Coco also lost to American Emma Navarro at the rd. 16 stage of both Wimbledon and the US Open, where she was defending champion (a very disappointing defeat as it turned out).

Interspersed within that, Coco flopped at the Olympics in Paris, losing in the round of 16 to Croatian Donna Vekic.

Coco finally came good in the autumn, where she won the China Open in October beating Karolina Muchova in the final. Coco then claimed her biggest title of the season by winning the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia; coming from a set down to beat Qinwen Jheng in the final. Therefore, Coco finished the year with three titles. One in January and two in October. In the wider scheme of things, that’s not great. And yet again it seems the current Top 4 players win very few tournaments through the course of the season.

Coco parted ways with her coach Brad Gilbert after the US Open. There were clearly communication issues between the two and it seemed Coco’s forehand got progressively worse. As a tactician, Brad Gilbert has always believed in defence first and build your game from there. Coco’s elite speed and athleticism is a blessing and a hindrance. A hindrance in that she needs to find the balance of taking the initiative.

To do that she needs to improve her forehand and serve. Coco has appointed Matt Daly to her team and is working on her technical issues. The reports are that she is working on various forehand grips (experimenting). My opinion is her stance is the bigger issue, hitting off the back foot too often and over rotating her hip. Not getting forward momentum because of her stance which is too open and she doesn’t plant her front foot. Her stance is not semi open (the modern stance of choice since the 1990s).

What I do know from watching tennis for decades is that top players have varying grips. Grips are not usually a hindrance to a top player progressing. Many players have achieved great things with western grips. From Jim Courier to Amelie Mauresmo to Rafael Nadal. It might be difficult for Coco to progress higher up the rankings if she is worried about her game from a technical standpoint. However, her priority will be to win titles more consistently, I don’t see her going for number 1 at this stage if she is worried about her overall game.

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina is not currently in the Top 4. But it is fair to say that most tennis fans see her as a legitimate member of the Top Four Clan. Overall it was a disappointing season for Rybakina for a number of reasons. But I think her decisions taken in October were extremely positive and hopefully fruitful for 2025.

Rybakina started off the 2024 season well by winning Brisbane international, taking out Sabalenka in the final with a surprising 6-3 6-0 score line. Rybakina then played the Adelaide International before the Australian Open and lost in the quarterfinal. Now on the face of it, it does seem a strange decision for an elite player to play two tournaments before the Australian Open. Unless she was not expecting to win Brisbane and already gave her commitment to the Adelaide organisers. On the other hand, there was nothing to stop her pulling out as she had all the tennis she needed to play a major tournament.

That sense of overplaying found her out quickly, as she duly got dumped out in the 2^nd round of the Australian Open, losing in three sets to Anna Blinkova in a third set tiebreak. So, despite Brisbane a disappointing start to the season. Rybakina then lost finals in Qatar and Miami, losing to Swiatek and Danielle Collins. The result in Miami another surprise. Rybakina lost in the Madrid semifinal to Sabalenka and pulled out of the Italian Open through injury. By the time Roland Garros came around, Rybakina was not looking the assured player we came to expect. In the quarterfinal she had another surprising loss, this time to Jasmine Paolini, who went on to make the final.

In her favoured grass season, Rybakina retired in Berlin but was ready for Wimbledon, where she was the hot favourite to take the title. However, unfortunately for her, she ran into Barbora Krejcikova playing brilliant and resilient tennis, Rybakina’s dream to win a second Wimbledon over for another year. Rybakina withdrew from the Olympics and Canada, lost early in Cincinnati and retired sadly after one match at the US Open.

It was clear at this stage there were issues behind the scenes. It soon became apparent that Rybakina had to rid herself of her coach Stefano Vukov who was accused of being abusive throughout their time together. He was often seen as too exuberant in the players’ box, letting everyone know his views on proceedings, the opposite of serenity. After an extended away period from the game, Rybakina announced she was joining forces with Novak Djokovic’s old coach Goran Ivanisevic. I think this is an excellent choice. Ivanisevic played a similar game to Rybakina and no doubt understands the transition game really well. I think he can improve her fitness and willingness to stay in rallies for longer. Which will then allow her to take the initiative at the right moments to put pressure on her opponents.

I said in my 2024 WTA season preview that Rybakina was not playing at her capacity, she could get even better and it’s down to her and her coaching staff. I think now Rybakina has the right coaching staff in place. 2025 could be a good year provided she stays clear of niggling injuries. A task for Goran Ivanisevic will be to improve her strength and conditioning to withstand the rigours of an eleven month tour.

Qinwen Zheng

Qinwen Zheng was probably the biggest story on the WTA Tour in 2024. She showed some promise in 2023 but this year saw a complete breakout. She has a large Chinese audience following her every move to stardom and superstardom (provided she can win major titles going forward).

Zheng started the year with a bang, reaching the final of the Australian Open, losing to defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, relatively easily. However, what was interesting is up until the final, none of Zheng’s opponents were ranked higher than 50. Not her problem of course but clearly that event was all over the place. Zheng made no real impression on the tour over the next months and her first round loss at Wimbledon was confirmation of her ordinary performances.

However, something changed, quite dramatically. This started with Zheng winning a small event in Palermo. Not sure whether it was to get match practice on clay before the Olympics, or to give her some confidence but it worked. Zheng beat Karolina Muchova in the final in three sets. This propelled Zheng to the Olympics where she played a crazy match against Angelique Kerber in the quarterfinal. Winning a marathon which finished with a third set tiebreak. This defeat basically retired Kerber from the WTA Tour. In fact, Zheng already took out the dangerous Emma Navarro the previous round also in three sets.

Zheng went on to defeat tournament favourite Swiatek in the semifinal in straight sets. Swiatek did not seem herself, and Zheng was able to capitalise. Usually the higher seed comes through because the opponent cannot capitalise on their wobble. Zheng was having none of it. Zheng’s reward for her efforts was a date with Donna Vekic of Croatia in the final. Vekic is a good player and Wimbledon semifinalist but a beatable opponent and Zheng did just that. Taking the match 6-2 6-3 and winning the gold medal for China; a massive achievement.

Zheng continued that good form into the US Open, taking out Vekic again, this time in rd. 16 but losing to Sabalenka in the quarterfinal. Zheng lost in the semifinal of the China Open to Muchova and the Wuhan final to Sabalenka, by now her absolute nemesis… Zheng won the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo against Sofia Kenin, a player on the comeback trail and remarkably ranked 155 on the WTA computer. This set up Zheng for the WTA finals in Riyadh. She took out Krejcikova in the semifinal but lost a close battle to Coco Gauff in the final.

The great results in the second half of the season propelled Zheng from Top 20 to Top 5. She looks to have the capabilities to stay there, as long as she can avoid injuries and loss of form.

However, the thing that stands out in 2024 is the ambivalence of Zheng’s fellow players towards her. There definitely seems to be a collective issue with Zheng, with players “calling out” her attitude and demeanour on court. It is very strange and almost unexplainable. If a player has an issue with another player, it can be put down as one of those things. However, when multiple players seem to have an issue, you take more notice. I am not sure what the back story is behind the scenes but we will have to keep an eye on this in 2025 to see how things develop.

As for Zheng’s game, I would describe it as a bit hit and miss. Now, she has been hitting more than missing. But it doesn’t take a lot for that type of game to unravel. What Zheng needs to do is ensure she has rock solid technique, and ensure she applies enough topspin on her shots at all times. When the bad times come, the technique will keep her ranking and performances at a certain level. If she doesn’t work on those aspects, bad form could see her fall down the rankings quick. Let’s see if 2025 delivers a major title or a slide down the rankings.

Other players to watch:

Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini had an incredible 2024 reaching the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon, and finishing the year off as a Billie Jean King Cup winner for the Italians. Paolini is currently ranked number 4 but I will suggest that this is a false position which she will find difficult to maintain. It will be hard for Paolini to win a major title but she has to give it a try.

Jessica Pegula

Pegula is the 2024 US Open finalist and once again had a solid season. Pegula looks remarkably similar to Jennifer Capriati on the court, in both height and game style. She doesn’t have Capriati’s fire and angst.

I recall watching highlights of Pegula on YouTube at the WTA Finals against Coco Gauff. In one point she hit an excellent lob over Coco’s head. Instead of following to the net seeing Coco run to the baseline, Pegula retreated hastily to her own baseline and ended up losing the point. To me, that one moment shows she is not grand slam winning material. Lacking initiative, critical thinking, enterprise, hunger. Pegula will protest and say she has worked damn hard to get where she is. But those moments are the things that take you to a higher level. Hard work alone is not enough.

Barbora Krejcikova

Krejcikova finished the season ranked 10. She reached the semifinal of the WTA Finals and won Wimbledon in fine style, taking out Rybakina in the semifinal and Paolini in the final. Besides those highlights, Krejcikova had a patchy year, constantly coming back from injuries. Hopefully in 2025, she can stay clear of injuries and become consistent. She is capable of winning more big titles if she can stay healthy.

Mirra Andreeva

A new teenage sensation, Andreeva made the semifinal of the French Open. However, the occasion was too big for her, and she lost easily to Paolini. Still only 17 years old, one to watch for the future. 2025 may be a year too soon but who knows what might happen.

Carlos Alcaraz Serve – The Missing Link To Greatness

2024-02-14T16:21:00.000-08:00

Carlos Alcaraz has won two grand slam titles and is ranked number 2 in the world.

Any player would be happy with that but Alcaraz is not going through the best of times. Not only did he crash out in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open to Alexander Zverev but then watched his rival Jannik Sinner win his first major title. Sinner coming from two sets down in the final against Danill Medvedev.

Surprisingly Alcaraz has lost every important match he has played since his Wimbledon triumph last July, losing to all of his main rivals on the ATP Tour.

In Cincinnati, Alcaraz lost the final to Djokovic which lasted almost four hours when Djokovic looked dead on his feet after 30 minutes! Yet still managed to win the match hours later. Alcaraz then went on to lose the US Open semi final to Daniil Medvedev in four sets when he was defending champion.

As the autumn rolled along Alcaraz lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16 in the Shanghai Masters. Then in the much-anticipated semifinal of the ATP World Tour championships, Alcaraz went down rather meekly to Djokovic in straight sets.

Alcaraz’s defeat to Zverev in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open is part of a trend. An underlying issue which goes under the radar, probably due to his style of play.

Now, of course Alcaraz is still only 20 years old and is having the inevitable dip since his meteoric rise to number 1. This dip arises from a few factors in no absolute order; media pressure, fan pressure, and opponents working out his game. In that scenario, for every top elite professional who plays sport, they need to keep improving and add elements to their game to stay ahead of the pack.

The reasons behind Alcaraz’s rise to be first male teenage number 1 in 2022 are undisputed. He has a complete game; he can attack and defend, with elite athleticism and speed. Those attributes take you to the top quick. Thanks to this, big things are predicted for Alcaraz but he has put unnecessary pressure on himself by declaring he wants to be the best in history. Unusual for a 20-year-old to make such a declaration and perhaps an unwise move.

To be among the greatest everything has to work. And there is one area which was slightly neglected when his game was constructed as a junior; the serve. As of now, Alcaraz has a world class game but not a world class serve. Alcaraz generally uses his serve to set up the point, to start off a rally or be in an offensive position. Classic clay court philosophy, as clay is generally not conducive to serving a lot of aces and un-returnables. With hardcourts generally slower and indoor carpet off the tour since the late 2000s, understandable that elite younger players do not work to perfect the serve as much as past players.

Collectively the serves of Next Gen and Gen Z players are very good but not top quality. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holge Rune, Andrey Rublev come into this category. Sinner has been working hard to improve his serve to make it a weapon. However, if Alcaraz wants to go down as the greatest, having a serve which is not top quality will be a hindrance to his quest. Let us get the elephant out of the room, as some people reading this will say his serve is great, he wins matches. This is all true but the statistics will reveal certain information. Let’s look at those statistics in isolation.

Citing ATP statistics, in the 2023 season Alcaraz had a 1st serve percentage of 66%. Alcaraz won 72% of his 1st serves and 56% of his 2nd serves. Alcaraz also hit 302 aces throughout the course of the season. To round off, Alcaraz saved 65% of break points faced.

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/Carlos-Alcaraz/A0E2/player-stats

Besides a very good 1st serve percentage, other aspects of those figures are not the best. With 72% points won on 1st serve, he won less than three quarters of those points. 56% of points won on 2nd serve is good but 302 aces for a full season is quite low. In the 2019 season on the WTA Tour, Ashleigh Barty hit over 400 aces, where all WTA matches are best of 3 sets including grand slam tournaments. In 2021, Barty hit 325 aces in 49 matches.

As for Alcaraz’s return game, in 2023 he won 32% of those. That’s a good percentage for a top player but I feel Alcaraz needs to do that. However, unlike in the WTA Tour, in the men’s game it is relatively more difficult to keep breaking serve if you get broken yourself.

These statistics confirm what my “eye test” has been observing for some time. Which is in the biggest matches, Alcaraz is consistently struggling to hold serve against the best players. This is a big problem for him. Alcaraz needs to raise his 1st serve points won to 75% and above.

Ironically, these stats show precisely the reason Alcaraz is so loved by fans and media. He hits outrageous and flashy shots on virtually every service game he plays. This is not sustainable for a long career, where he often has to stretch every sinew to come up with something spectacular. He is at a crossroads, even this early in his career. Alcaraz has to considerably improve his serving statistics, but the question is how to do it.

Alcaraz could take to the practice court and work on serve placement. As of now his serve is in straight lines, it is not moving around enough in the service box. He does not have the lefty advantage of Nadal who can swing the ball away from the returners’ forehand. Alcaraz needs to find more aces and unreturnables. He is not the tallest but that shouldn’t be a big issue. Barty was short by WTA standards but with excellent placement, technique and timing delivered many aces. Speed is not the issue, placement and deception plus speed are the order of the day.

Alcaraz should also look to vary his serve much more and not overly rely on the kick serve. Improving his serve will improve his overall confidence. If he can hold serve more easily, he can go after the return of serve with more relaxation.

What we can deduce is with Alcaraz’s current serve and statistics, he is not on course to become the greatest player in history. In fact, it will be an almighty struggle to win up to 10 major tournaments. Pete Sampras and Roger Federer used their all-court game, good defence and elite athleticism and based their whole game around their serve.

The statistics show both Sampras and Federer consistently won around 80% of 1st serve points and consistently over 50% of 2nd serve points. That’s a much better package to dominating opponents. One important feature of both Sampras and Federer is that they won service games quickly and efficiently, rushing their opponents. Many of their big finals were won in straight sets.

Djokovic is different as he able to dominate by consistently winning 75% of 1st serve points and 55% of 2nd serve points. However, Djokovic is a steadier player and will not make as many errors as an all court attacking player, it does not need to be 80% for Djokovic. Playmakers like Alcaraz need a higher percentage.

Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero proclaimed Alcaraz is a hybrid of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. A compliment and potential burden. Each of those three players have their own way. Alcaraz will at some point have to find his own identity. That means forming his own game plan, finding patterns that work and sticking to them over a period of time.

His current serving stats leaves him on course to win up to 5 majors if everything goes well in his career. To win more than 10, he will have to improve those serving statistics. To date only eight players in over one hundred years of tennis have won more than 10 major tournaments.

He has the talent to do it, now for the application and practice.

Previewing The 2024 WTA Season

2023-12-31T17:57:00.000-08:00

We are on the eve of another season in the WTA (in fact already begun).

It is a bit strange the season starts before the turn of the year but tennis chooses to be concertinaed so they shouldn’t turn and complain of too much tennis..

Having said that, 2023 was a very interesting year with the top players showing up and claiming the majority of the big tournaments. Women’s tennis is in a good place despite the obvious disquiet off the court with how the WTA Tour is run administratively. Can the players deliver again in 2024? I think so, let’s look at the players who can make the biggest waves.

Iga Swiatek:

Swiatek had a very strong finish to 2023 and will be looking to start 2024 in the same fashion. Despite the many criticisms beforehand, Swiatek dominated the WTA championships in Cancun in Mexico, winning every match in straight sets and thrashing Pegula in the final. However, it’s a new year and a clean slate, and Swiatek will have to start all over again.

Starting with the Australian Open in January. Swiatek is yet to make a final there and has not been a factor so far in her career, thus will want to correct that. This will not be easy as the old saying used to be that hardcourt is a leveller. Meaning, clay court specialists and grass court specialists had an opportunity to win on the surface. Those days are more or less over but there are still players who favour one surface over others, and in the main Swiatek is at her best on clay. At the Australian Open it is more difficult because a lot more players fancy their chances of success. At the same time, Swiatek showed she can play on hardcourts with her win at the US Open in 2022. This will be a great opportunity to show she can go far at the event in January.

Likewise Wimbledon, as Swiatek has yet to make a semifinal there either. Swiatek is definitely struggling to adapt to grass. My opinion is the lack of a transition game is hurting her. She is not consistently able to take advantage of the short ball and come to the net to finish points. This is something she needs to address. Also, her forehand grip seems to be a hindrance but I do not see any reason why she cannot overcome these two problems to really progress. To win at Wimbledon, she will have to overcome these two issues sufficiently.

As for the rest of 2023, Swiatek will want to consolidate her number 1 position. Win at least one 1000 level tournament, win a major away from clay and stay ahead of the pack. Those will be three of her main goals. During 2023 I thought Swiatek’s confidence went down a bit, she was not playing diagonal tennis as much, but playing a more central (neutral) position. In my eyes her forehand is not as effective there, as her stance subconsciously switches from semi open which gives her more options, to hitting more off the backfoot which makes her forehand far less effective overall. It will be interesting to see how her confidence affects her strategy and style of play in 2024.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka had the breakthrough season she had been dreaming of since she became a professional tennis player. Winning her first major tournament and spending weeks as number 1 in the world. Sabalenka achieved both in 2024 by winning the Australian Open in January and becoming world number 1 in September.

Two great achievements; although ironically, it could have been so much better. Sabalenka had a few opportunities to become Number 1 sooner. Particularly in July if she made the Wimbledon final. Sabalenka finally became number 1 in September in spite of losing the US Open final against Coco Gauff. Sabalenka then had a great chance to end the year as number 1 but blew her semifinal against Swiatek in Cancun. So, Sabalenka will be looking to be even stronger in 2024.

This will not be easy, as she will have to come out of the traps fast and defend her Australian Open title. A semifinal appearance will be seen as an honourable effort, winning again will be a big bonus. Sabalenka won 3 titles in 2023 including Madrid on clay. She can win more titles in 2024, she must aim for 5 titles at least including a major.

Sabalenka possesses all of the attributes to be a great player. She is potentially a great grass court player, with two Wimbledon semifinal appearances in a row. Sabalenka is also very good on hardcourts. And with her big game and serve should be a threat at the French Open. Sabalenka has a great serve, great groundstrokes and a good transition game when she uses it, no doubt helped by being a very good doubles player. Sabalenka also has good athleticism and can defend when needed.

These attributes suggest she should be a Number 1 player consistently. But then the X factor comes into play. That X factor is nerves. Sabalenka showed in the US Open final that when nerves get to her, she could hit the ball all over the place. Some of her forehands were nearly hitting the backboard! Intriguing how a top pro could lose control like that. Looking at it logically, those shots suggest the racquet is strung way too loose, to lose control so dramatically. But if I apply common sense, I don’t expect that from a top pro.

Therefore, it has to be down to Sabalenka to control her shots much more often. Maybe as the coaches would say, put more “shape” on her shots. Meaning, more topspin for control, the balls need to dip in deep in the court and not sail way long. In Sabalenka’s case, maybe technical adjustments are required so when she is nervous, she doesn’t miss so sensationally badly.

That could be the difference between Sabalenka becoming a truly great player over the next five years; controlling her nerves better.

Coco Gauff

In many ways, Gauff is the big story of 2023. Winning her first major title at the US Open when it looked like she was not ready to win such a big event. But Gauff was ready, which is the main thing.

Gauff has followed a recent trend of teenagers winning the US Open. Matching Bianca Andreescu in 2019 and Emma Raducanu in 2021. Before that, Maria Sharapova won as a teenager in 2006 and Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2004. It does not happen often but three times in five years is impressive.

In fact, up until the summer hardcourt season, Gauff was not having a great year. She lost early in the Australian Open, lost badly to Swiatek in the French Open quarterfinal, then lost in the 1^st round of Wimbledon. Thus Gauff decided to invite legendary coach Brad Gilbert to her coaching team, to provide strategic advice and motivation. Well, it worked! She won Washington, then Cincinnati and the US Open; an incredible summer.

What prompted such a turnaround? During the US Open, Sky Sports US Open coverage invited Brad Gilbert for a chat and he made some interesting comments. Gilbert said he took no notice of statistics and approached things in a much more old school fashion, what he sees with his eyes and feeling for the situation. In an age of statistics, damn statistics, it must be refreshing for a 19-year-old to hear such a different approach.

There were occasions when Gauff ignored Gilbert during matches and did her own thing, which is also interesting. The US Open final was a combination of complete and utter determination by Gauff to come back from a set down, and bizarre errors from Sabalenka who at times looked more like a pub player.

This is now a great platform for Gauff to launch her career and at some point attack the number 1 ranking over the next 18 months. Gauff has already made a French Open final which shows she can play on clay. Grass is a bit more difficult for her but doable. Overall Gauff won four tournaments in 2023 so a good return. In 2024, Gauff will no doubt have many goals. One would be to do well on clay and grass. The other would be to beat Swiatek in a grand slam tournament, which would be a huge confidence boost, should they draw each other. 2024 is also Olympic year, I am sure all top players will be targeting Olympic gold.

As for her game, Gauff has many attributes. Gauff has a strong first serve, very good backhand and is probably the best athlete on tour. Her forehand is an issue and it is amazing she was able to win the US Open despite this. Gauff tends to hit her forehand pivoting off the backfoot, which makes it erratic and does not get much penetration. At times she is forced too far behind the baseline as a result, making her vulnerable to attack. It is interesting how many players play this way, and are often genuine counterpunchers; relying on their speed to get them out of trouble.

Hitting off the backfoot too often is a recipe for a career of long-term injuries, especially to hip, back and wrist. I am quite frankly amazed players are coming through playing this way and it is still endorsed by coaches and analysts. The info from past decades is all there: Sergei Bruguera, Gustavo Kuerten, Guillermo Coria, Andy Murray, Amelie Mauresmo and many others suffered terrible injuries. In the men’s game Alexander Zverev hits off the backfoot well behind the baseline and it makes no sense.

I would like to see Gauff work on her forehand technique and stance. Gauff has stated her dream is to be a dominant number 1. However, there has never been a dominant number 1 in the history of tennis who hits their forehand off the back foot. Can Gauff be number 1 in future? Yes. To dominate everyone and be number 1 for hundreds of weeks? Unlikely unless she modifies her techniqe and way of playing.

Regarding 2024, Gauff has the opportunity to build on her success, and win another major title. That would be good progress.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina rounded out the Top 4 during the 2023 WTA season. Statistically, Rybakina was the least successful. Why? Well she did not win a grand slam title. However, Rybakina did make the Australian Open final, losing to Sabalenka after being a set up. Her other results in the majors were not so good. 3^rd round at the French Open, quarterfinal at Wimbledon and 3^rd round of the US Open. Rybakina did win two big titles at Indian Wells and the Foro Italico in Rome.

In many ways Rybakina flattered to deceive during 2023. She suffered injuries at the wrong time and when her fans would have expected her to kick on and be more of a threat, she went the other way. At the same time, when I watch Rybakina play I would like her to do more on the tennis court more often. I get the impression she is playing within herself and may be holding something back; or perhaps not aware she can be an even better player than she currently is.

There are restrictions, Rybakina stands at 1 metre 84 so movement wise not the fastest. Hence Rybakina is not able to play defence as well as some of her opponents which can be a hindrance to winning many titles.

Rybakina does have a great serve and can transition to net very well. 2024 should be an interesting season; if she can keep injuries to a minimum and play a lot of matches to keep sharp, there is no reason she cannot challenge to win Wimbledon. Not sure at this stage of her credentials to win the US Open. However, as she made the Australian Open final last year, she does have it in her to win on hardcourts. Rybakina has the added bonus of having a good head to head record against Swiatek, who clearly does not enjoy playing her.

I think Rybakina can get an extra 10% out of her game to become a real great player. It is up to her and her coaching staff to take that extra step.

Other players to watch:

Jessica Pegula

Pegula finished 2023 strongly, reaching the final of WTA championships in Cancun before getting unceremoniously thrashed 6-1 6-0 by Swiatek. Pegula did win the Canadian Open (Rogers Cup) in August but made no impression at the four grand slam events, her best being the quarterfinal in Wimbledon. Pegula’s game, height and demeanour reminds me of Jennifer Capriati but despite being a Top 5 player, I struggle to see her as a serious contender to win a major tournament in 2024.

Ons Jabeur

We could have been talking about Jabeur in much better terms and gravitas. After taking out both Rybakina and Sabalenka in the quarterfinals and semifinals of Wimbledon, destiny seemed in her hands. Jabeur was set to be the first player from Africa to win a major tournament. Unfortunately the final against Vondrousova turned out to be a video nasty. As someone who followed tennis closely since the 1990s, it was the first time I have seen such a poor final by a clear favourite.

In the past the favoured player has lost finals, it happens. Marat Safin at the 2002 Australian Open against Thomas Johansson. Maria Sharapova against Serena Williams in 2004 Wimbledon. What we haven’t seen until now was a complete capitulation due to nerves where talent had zero to do with the equation. It was a painful experience watching it.

Whether Jabeur can create another opportunity to win a major final remains to be seen.

Ludmila Samsanova

A Top 20 player who seems to have the talent to be Top 10 material and possible grand slam contender, but yet to show it at the highest level.

Karolina Muchova

Finalist at the French Open and semifinalist at the US Open. Will be tough to repeat that in 2024.

Marketa Vondrousova

Wimbledon champion in 2023! Not sure what to make of Vondrousova as a Top 10 player. Does she have the consistency or game to stay there for a long period of time? To do that she will need to either win a few tournaments, or get to the semis and finals consistently. She doesn’t appear to be that kind of player but happy to be proved wrong.

Special mentions for the comeback queens Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber, both returning after maternity leave / forced absence from the tour.

Iga Swiatek - Back to Business

2023-11-28T15:52:00.000-08:00

It has proved to be a very interesting year for Iga Swiatek.

Swiatek started the year as clear number 1 but suffered a shock straight sets defeat to Elena Rybakina in the 4^th round of the Australian Open. This immediately got fans and media talking that she would struggle to retain her number 1 position. Both Ayrna Sabalenka and Rybakina took advantage with each getting to the final; Sabalenka coming from a set down to take her first major title.

Fast forward to the clay court season in the spring, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek in the final of Madrid and was now hunting the number 1 ranking. In Rome, Swiatek succumbed to Rybakina yet again; a player who is becoming a nemesis for her. Swiatek retired in the 3^rd set after losing the 2^nd set on a tiebreak.

At the French Open, Swiatek retained her title with a strong run to the final taking out Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal and Beatrice Haddad Maia in the semifinal. However, Swiatek had an almighty tussle in the final against Czech player Karolina Muchova, where it looked for a while that Muchova would prevail. However, Swiatek dug deep in the 3^rd set, and came back from a break down to take her 3^rd French Open title. I assume this is her most satisfying win, due to been under media and fan pressure for the first time as world number 1.

Her joy was relatively short lived though, the grass court season proving her Achilles heel for the second year in a row. This time, Swiatek managed to get to the quarterfinals after a tight 4^th round match with Belinda Bencic. Swiatek would not escape the quarterfinals, Elena Svitolina taking the match 7-5, 6-7, 6-2. It seems clear as of now Swiatek’s style of play is not conducive to grass, which is a little surprising as she is a junior Wimbledon champion.

Swiatek was in danger of losing her number 1 ranking but Sabalenka was unable to capitalise, losing in the semifinal to Ons Jabeur.

The hardcourt season cannot be described as a success in any way. In fact, it was relatively poor. Swiatek lost in the semifinal in Canada to Jessica Pegula in three sets. Incredibly her serve was broken a whopping eleven times throughout the course of the match :-0

Coco Gauff was able to record her first ever win against Swiatek in the semifinal of Cincinnati, prevailing 7-6, 3-6, 6-4. Things got worse for Swiatek, as she reached the fourth round of the US Open, then lost to the mercurial Jelena Ostapenko, Even more remarkable is Swiatek has never beaten Ostapenko in an official match, losing for the fourth time in a row. This is extremely unusual for a number 1 player in any era, to have such a poor record against essentially a Top 20 player.

This meant Sabalenka was finally able to claim the world number 1 ranking by making the final of the US Open. She couldn’t celebrate too hard after losing the US Open final to Coco Gauff despite being a set up.

By this stage the knives were firmly out for Swiatek, predicting her imminent demise. Comparisons were made to former World Number 1s who lost the position and never recovered; from Lleyton to Hewitt to Jim Courier. Those with cool heads attempted to explain that it is quite normal for a player to lose the number 1 ranking after a while, then through hard work and perseverance, regain the number 1 position at a future date. For whatever reason, a sizeable faction did not want to hear this and were openly questioning Swiatek’s mental state after a couple of press conferences and statements which perhaps did not hit the mark. Swiatek also stopped wearing the Ukraine ribbon in her cap, which also attracted a lot of “comments”.

Swiatek did recover some confidence before the WTA Championships in the autumn by winning the China Open. In that run, Swiatek beat Caroline Garcia, Coco Gauff and Luidmilla Samsanova. But it is the WTA Championships where Swiatek showed the world what she is all about. Winning every match in straight sets, including against Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and US Open champion Coco Gauff. With the year end number 1 ranking on the line, Swiatek took down Sabalenka 6-3, 6-2 in the semifinal and thrashed Jessica Pegula 6-1, 6-0 to reclaim the number 1 ranking in spectacular fashion. Swiatek regained the number 1 ranking from Sabalenka in the very last match of the season!

The 2023 season was remarkable for Swiatek in a number of ways. The first is Swiatek won a major title by retaining the French Open. Despite appearing to struggle mightily in many big tournaments, Swiatek compiled a 67-to-11-win loss record which is mightily impressive and shows she was often in contention. Plus it is not possible to get a bigger confidence boost than winning the WTA finals in style and regaining the number 1 position.

Swiatek has a few hurdles to climb in 2024. She is yet to make an Australian Open final and as things stand is not a favourite to win the Wimbledon title. Slightly surprising because as mentioned earlier, she is a junior Wimbledon champion but due to her style of play, it is proving difficult. Amelie Mauresmo won Wimbledon with an extreme western forehand grip but her strengths were her beautiful volleys, topspin backhand, slice backhand, strong serve and athletic ability. Swiatek possesses the athletic ability but is lacking a transition game and strong net play. Swiatek also does not use the slice backhand on the low ball. Swiatek needs more variety in her game.

I also noticed Swiatek slightly amended her tactics in the 2023 season. She seems not play the diagonal game as much as throughout 2022. This could be due to a slight dip in confidence, where she is playing the middle of the court. I am not sure this suits as her forehand is not quite as effective from that position. Swiatek needs to make space to hit the ball effectively with an extreme grip, improvising is not as easy for her and hence starts hitting off the backfoot a bit too much.

Swiatek’s resurgence makes the 2024 season a very interesting one. How will her rivals respond? We’ll soon find out.

Previewing The 2023 WTA Season

2023-01-11T13:13:00.000-08:00

With the 2023 WTA season fast approaching, let’s take a look at the contenders for the big titles.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2023/01/02/previewing-the-2023-wta-season/

Previewing the 2023 ATP Season

2023-01-11T13:06:00.001-08:00

The 2022 season was a bizarre one in many ways. Starting off with the controversy swirling around Novak Djokovic, and ending with a teenager as world #1 in the shape of Carlos Alcaraz. This is something no one would have predicted. All the same, the established old men of Djokovic and Nadal won three of the four majors on offer. So, what will the 2023 ATP season hold?

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2023/01/03/preview-2023-atp-season/

Five Crazy Tennis Moments in 2022

2023-01-01T16:50:00.000-08:00

2022 was an incredibly volatile year for professional tennis. Here are five crazy moments that stand out.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2023/01/01/five-crazy-tennis-moments-in-2022/

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Delusions of Grandeur?

2023-01-01T16:44:00.000-08:00

The 2022 tennis season proved a rather strange one.

A season which started in January with Novak Djokovic getting sensationally expelled from the Australian Open. Women’s #1 Ash Barty retired completely out of the blue. Alexander Zverev was disqualified for cursing out an umpire and repeatedly smashing his chair with his racquet in the Mexican Open. And Russian and Belarussian players were banned from Wimbledon for the war in Ukraine, with the ATP and WTA tour awarding no points for the competition in retaliation.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/12/03/stefanos-tsitsipas-delusions-of-grandeur/

My Visit to Paris Bercy Masters, 2022 Edition

2022-11-13T15:22:00.002-08:00

The Paris Bercy Masters 1000 is one of the top events on the tennis calendar. The last big event before the World Tour finals in Turin, the big boys tend to turn up and give a show.

This was my first visit to Paris Bercy since 2003. Back then I saw the likes of Jonas Bjorkman, Tim Henman, Gustavo Kuerten, Roger Federer and the talented but forgotten Martin Verkerk. Great names indeed but from a totally different era in every sense. That particular event was held on fast indoor carpet. Today, indoor tournaments are primarily played on indoor hardcourt (plexicushion). Having watched live tennis for over 20 years, the big difference between carpet and plexicushion is the speed and the bounce. No doubt plexicushion is relatively slower and higher bouncing; players have to hit harder to penetrate defences. This in turn has allowed counterpunchers to flourish, particularly counterpunchers with fast twitch fibres.

This was my first visit to Bercy since 2003 but not live tennis in Paris. I attended the French Open on six occasions and the WTA Paris Indoors three years in a row. That was an excellent tournament, sadly now defunct, part of the recent flux and uncertainty of the WTA tour.

Back to Paris Bercy, I attended the day session of the quarterfinals, with four of the Next Gen / Gen Z on show. Francis Tiafoe took on Felix Auger-Aliassime whilst Holger Rune entertained Carlos Alcaraz. Not sure if these guys are Next Gen or Gen Z, there are now so many labels I can’t keep up! Tiafoe v Aliassime was first up, USA vs Canada. The first thing that grabbed my attention was how tentative Tiafoe appeared in the warm up. I would hasten to say casual, not moving his feet at all and patting the ball back and forth. Auger-Aliassime was the opposite, hitting the ball as hard as possible, as if the match already begun!

Play did commence and before he knew it Tiafoe was 4-1 down, still looking lethargic. At one stage Tiafoe played a rally which summed up his lack of mental application. He played a series of drop shots, allowing Aliassime to get to each one with time to spare. Not the way to play drop shots! Tiafoe lost the first set 6-1 and didn’t fare too much better in the second set. Even so, Tiafoe tried to get himself going, engaging the crowd and hugging a ball boy but none of it worked. Tiafoe also won a point with a serve and high forehand volley with what can only be described as a frying pan grip. Amateurs who play tennis will know exactly what I mean by a frying pan grip, not something I thought a professional would utilise.

But then I noticed something else, my notes hardly mentioned Auger-Aliassime. It seemed a lot about Tiafoe’s failings. So what about Auger-Aliassime? His performance was solid if unspectacular, slightly uninspiring. Could he lift his game if he was properly challenged? On this occasion it didn’t matter as he strolled to a 6-1 6-4 victory. Having seen Auger-Aliassime up close, I still think he needs to do a lot more if he wants to win a grand slam tournament. He plays within himself too often; he needs to display more of his talent, and more energy.

The second match involved two 19 year olds. World number 1 Carlos Alcaraz from Spain took on Denmark’s Holger Rune. I was looking forward to this match, my first opportunity to see US Open champ Alcaraz. Alcaraz unsurprisingly (to me at least) has struggled for form and fitness since his breakthrough in September. We have seen this before; he is not ready to dominate. Fans will need to understand this and coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will not be panicking. The media is another animal altogether and they will pile the pressure on if results do not go his way.

Both players came out to “I Love Rock and Roll” by Joan Jett and the Blackhearts. Interesting choice! Anyone reading this under the age of 40 will have to google Joan Jett. With the coin toss done, Alcaraz sprinted to the baseline, a la Rafael Nadal. Alcaraz won the coin toss and chose to receive. This left me slightly surprised, a decision counterpunchers usually make to receive serve first.

I don’t consider Alcaraz a consistent counterpuncher but it might reveal his current state of mind. This fuelled Rune who came out strong, serving well and displaying a big forehand which he was not afraid to use. Alcaraz was immediately on the back foot, initially saving break points early but got broken soon enough. In fact by the seventh game Alcaraz already lost all of his challenges with silly decision making on balls that were clearly out. Rune in the meantime was looking sharp, coming into net off short balls and putting away volleys with aplomb, taking the first set 6-3.

Alcaraz came out for the second set looking far better, coming to net and unleashing huge shots from the baseline. One thing about live tennis is watching big shots been produced by great players. The acoustics of live tennis tend to be different. When watching on television, or internet stream, microphones are put close to the court, amplified shots can sound like gun shots, making it more dramatic.

As the second set went on, Rune was starting to make more mistakes, coinciding with Alcaraz employing more drop shots. However, Rune held off Alcaraz’s surge impressively, and we were set for a major battle in the second set tiebreak. Sadly, Alcaraz twisted his abdomen just when things were getting interesting, after lengthy treatment and a couple more points, retired hurt. However, it was a great battle between two future top players who will be vying for the major tournaments.

I arrived for the final on Sunday knowing Rune would play Novak Djokovic. In the semifinals, Rune beat Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-2 and Djokovic beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in a third set tiebreak. Having seen both young guys on Friday, the result was not a surprise. Rune seems eager to get to the top, whilst Aliassime does not appear determined enough, missing the X factor. Determination and not just skill is a huge factor in how far players can go in their career.

Djokovic beating Tsitsipas was also not a surprise. Since the ill-fated French Open final of 2021 where Djokovic came from two sets down to beat Tsitsipas, Tsitsipas has not beaten a top player in an important match. He is mentally struggling, and only he and his team can pull himself out of this. The belief is not there when it matters.

On the other hand, Djokovic at age 35 is almost twice the age of his final opponent, that is something. It was all about Rune in the final; could he hold it together mentally? At age 19 he could run all day but his tactics would be interesting. The match started with Rune unsurprisingly nervous but still going for his shots. In typical Djokovic fashion, he stayed steady and eventually broke twice in the first set to take it 6-3.

Despite the setback, Rune was still going for shots, and his 2^nd serve. Remarkably, at one stage he hit a 2^nd serve at 200kph (125 mph). Not sure if that was exuberance of youth or lack of experience in not playing steady. One thing became clear; Rune was not interested in playing longer rallies with Djokovic, ultimately a wise decision. Rune wanted to attack short balls and close the net; stay aggressive often. A commendable game plan against the supreme counterpuncher in tennis history. The aggressive mind-set worked because Rune broke right at the start of the second set, and was able to hold serve throughout to take it 6-3.

Djokovic thought he gained control of the match in the third set, breaking Rune but Rune broke back, showing his resilience. Rune broke again at 6-5 to serve for the match, taking the already raucous Paris Bercy crowd into an absolute frenzy. The final game seemed to take twenty minutes, I lost count of the break points but there were two match points at least. On the first match point, Rune missed the 1st serve and double faulted, attempting a 2^nd serve on the line at near 200kph. Maybe he got caught up in the atmosphere because that was crazy stuff! Rune eventually won it, getting the error of an attempted Djokovic half volley.

Rune won by staying aggressive and not being overawed by the occasion, this bodes well for the future. Djokovic was gracious in defeat but demonstrated just how hard it is to put him away! The first of many Masters Shields for Rune if he continues to progress.

What I like about Rune and Alcaraz is they play quick. No messing between 1^st and 2^nd serves, no timewasting or bouncing the ball excessively before serving. Plus, their first instinct is to go for their shots.

The future of tennis is in good hands if Next Gen players continue to shun the counterpuncher style. All top players from every era need to know how to defend, but we want players coming through who want to attack first and foremost, whilst having the ability to defend when required. Former number 1 Daniil Medvedev needs to take note, he has retreated into a defensive shell, and his ranking and confidence is taking a hit.

All in all, another great Masters event at Paris Bercy.

Champion Carlos Alcaraz Throws Down Gauntlet To The “Next Gen”

2022-09-21T10:17:00.000-07:00

We have witnessed the most interesting US Open tournament for a number of years. There were great matches, individual stories and youngest #1 player to boot. However, my biggest takeaway from the US Open is the revival of a true all-court player at the top of tennis.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/09/13/carlos-alcaraz-next-gen/

Iga Swiatek: An In-depth Look At Her Game

2022-09-13T17:31:00.005-07:00

Iga Swiatek is the player of the moment in women’s tennis. A two-time French Open champion, , Swiatek equalled Venus Williams’ record of 35 straight wins. By the time you read this; that will probably have extended. What makes Swiatek such a dominant player? Let’s take a look at her game.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/06/26/iga-swiatek-an-in-depth-look-at-her-game/

Flashback Series – Pete Sampras vs Lleyton Hewitt 2000 US Open Semifinal

2022-09-09T18:44:00.001-07:00

Today, we review the 2000 semifinal US Open semifinal: Pete Sampras vs Lleyton Hewitt. Two players who provided a great contrast in styles of play, an era where this was possible; and welcomed. Hewitt was the precocious teenager possessing bundles of energy, with the knack of annoying senior pros. Hewitt was loud and in the face of his opponents a lot. In fact, it was reported in 2000 that several Spanish players had threatened to punch him out in the locker room.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/09/09/sampras-vs-hewitt-2000-us-open-semifinal/

The Story Behind The Big Three’s Grand Slam Race

2022-08-06T07:34:00.001-07:00

The last three Grand Slam winners have a familiar ring to it. Rafael Nadal won the first two (Australian and French Open), whilst Novak Djokovic recently won Wimbledon. To put this is in perspective; Nadal won his first French Open in 2005 and Djokovic his first Australian Open in 2008. This is unprecedented domination and despite the fact that they are currently 35 and 36 years old, there is no sign of this coming to an end, with their ‘Grand Slam Race’ only hotting up.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/07/30/big-three-grand-slam-race/

The 2022 Wimbledon Contenders

2022-06-17T15:20:00.000-07:00

The French Open is over for another year. A familiar winner was crowned in Rafael Nadal and now all eyes turn to Wimbledon. This year, Russian and Belarusian players are banned from Wimbledon, with the ITF, ATP and WTA removing ranking points from the event as a result. This puts Wimbledon in new territory, leaving players to play for prize money and prestige, but not the all-important ranking points. But, unsurprisingly, the field will still be very strong. Here’s a look at some of the leading contenders.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/06/14/2022-wimbledon-contenders/

The 2022 French Open contenders

2022-05-21T12:45:00.002-07:00

It’s that time of year again. Spring is here, COVID restrictions are loosening, and the 2022 French Open is almost upon us! A perfect time to take a look at the contenders.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/05/21/the-2022-french-open-contenders/

Five Crazy WTA Moments in 2021

2021-12-27T17:23:00.005-08:00

The tennis season is over and 2022 is around the corner. The WTA Tour was, as usual, full of flux and drama this year. Here’s a look back at five of the most surprising and shocking moments of the season:

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2021/12/22/five-crazy-wta-moments-2021/

Pete Sampras – The Right Hander who Played like a Left Hander

2021-12-27T17:20:00.002-08:00

There were some fantastic matches during the 2021 US Open. One of the stars of the tournament was Leylah Fernandez, who wowed crowds with her crafty game and competitive spirit. Every match Fernandez was involved in had drama, including the final.

The quarterfinal match against Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina caught my eye. However, not for reasons I imagined. Fernandez’s running crosscourt forehand in particular left me thinking, the shot reminds me of another player. Then it dawned, Leylah Fernandez’s crosscourt forehand reminded me of Pete Sampras’ crosscourt forehand!

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2021/10/06/pete-sampras-the-right-hander-who-played-like-a-left-hander/