Leafheaded

Resuming Action

2011-02-21T20:33:00.000-05:00

It's been a while.

I've been away from this site for quite a long time, I know. I've been focusing on school, for the most part - I've mentioned that I'm a student in the past, but this time it's actually true.

Now, however, I'm happy to announce that I'm back on the horse. I plan on providing my own unique insight into Leafs news and moves starting very soon.

Good to be back.

Let's see how long I stick with it this time.

The Quiet Months

2010-08-07T22:37:00.001-04:00

Giving my phone a try at posting to my blog. Let's just see how well this works.

This is generally a rather dull time of year for me - I'm a student, so the summers are basically a lengthy waiting period for classes to begin once again. It's also made longer by the utter absence of hockey.

Sure, there's the world junior development camp going on right now in St. John's, but the only major Leafs prospect present there (Brad Ross, a second round pick) is taking it easy this week with a groin pull. Methinks that may affect his chances of making the team.

Sadly, there's just not much to report in Leafland. I could rehash old rumors and discussions about where Kaberle would end up, but that's already been done plenty of times elsewhere. Nothing new I could say on that front.

So, we'll wait. At this point, what else is there to do?

Published with Blogger-droid v1.4.9

Looking Less Likely

2010-04-06T04:00:00.004-04:00

Lovely as all the fantasizing may be about the Leafs getting out of the bottom two places in the league, the odds of it happening are getting awfully low. Yes, Toronto is only one win away from tying Tampa, but even if they manage that, they'll still be in the same place in the standings (based on overall wins by the end of the year). So they need to take the lead, which means they need to win at least two of the next three games, and for either Tampa Bay or Florida to lose every single last game for the rest of the year. And looking at their schedules, it's literally impossible for both of those teams to lose every last game.

Florida
Tue, Apr 06 Ott 7:30 PM ET
Thur, Apr 08 NJ 7:30 PM ET
Sat, Apr 10 @ TB 7:30 PM ET
Sun, Apr 11 TB 5:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay
Tue, Apr 06 Car 7:30 PM ET
Thur, Apr 08 Ott 7:30 PM ET
Sat, Apr 10 Fla 7:30 PM ET
Sun, Apr 11 @ Fla 5:00 PM ET

The end result of all this is that for the best possible result for the Leafs at this point can only be achieved if the Leafs win all three remaining games - two of which are against teams struggling for playoff spots. In that scenario, Tampa Bay and Florida also have to lose the next two games each before splitting their final two against each other with regulation wins. That is, if you want the Leafs to get in front of both of those teams - I suppose if you want you could cheer for one team to lose both games, which would make it easier to move up that critical one spot.

As for other teams within theoretical reach, there is Columbus and Carolina. Columbus has two games left, and if the Leafs win all three of their games and Columbus loses both of theirs, Toronto will overtake them based on the outcome of the one game the two teams played this year (A 6-3 Toronto win, on December 3rd). I believe, as they would have matching final records if this scenario plays out. Correct me if I'm wrong. Carolina cannot be beat if they win one of their remaining three games - they would beat us in the standings based on amount of wins. Seeing as we're hoping that Carolina wins tonight, that win would ironically put them out of reach for our purposes. Such is life.

Carolina
Tue, Apr 06 @ TB 7:30 PM ET
Thur, Apr 08 Mtl 7:00 PM ET
Sat, Apr 10 @ Bos 1:00 PM ET

Columbus
Wed, Apr 07 @ Det 7:30 PM ET
Fri, Apr 09 Det 7:00 PM ET

If, somehow, the Leafs end up tied with Tampa or Florida in points and they both have the same amount of wins somehow, the Leafs would beat Tampa based on points earned in games, while Florida would beat Toronto based on goal differential. Unless, of course, the Leafs manage to score at least eighteen goals in the next three games... while allowing none.

As a result, without going into the possible permutations of the last few games for each of these teams, the best possible outcome for the Leafs is 26th, in front of Columbus, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton. It's going to be a lottery pick regardless, but hey, they say it's a weak draft year. And there's always the possibility of the Leafs "winning" the lottery and picking first regardless.

We can relax, though! For after looking at the schedules closely, we can now see that the fate of our former draft pick basically rests in the hands of the Ottawa Senators. Now, isn't that nice.

Game Day - Buffalo at Toronto

2010-04-01T19:13:00.001-04:00

Borrowed from the NHL.

Leafs
Kulemin-Grabovski-Kessel
Stalberg-Bozak-Hanson
Caputi-Irwin-Mitchell
Sjostrom-Wallin-Orr

Beauchemin - Phaneuf
Kaberle - Schenn
Finger - Gunnarsson

Giguere
Gustavsson

Injuries
Mike Van Ryn (season)
Komisarek (season)
__________________________________________________ _____________________

Sabres
Tyler Ennis - Jochen Hecht - Jason Pominville
Tim Kennedy - Derek Roy - Drew Stafford
Nathan Gerbe - Paul Gaustad - Mike Grier
Raffi Torres - Matt Ellis - Adam Mair

Tyler Myers - Henrik Tallinder
Toni Lydman - Steve Montador
Craig Rivet - Chris Butler

Ryan Miller
Patrick Lalime

Injuries
Tim Connolly (day to day)
Patrick Kaleta (2 weeks)
Thomas Vanek (week to week)

Game Day: Atlanta Thrashers at Toronto Maple Leafs

2010-03-30T15:54:00.005-04:00

Borrowed again from mapleleafs.nhl.com. It really does look much cleaner than my effort. Perhaps I should reconsider my design.

Now, then, to the lineups.

TORONTO

Forwards

Kulemin Bozak Kessel

Caputi Grabovski Mitchell

Stalberg Hanson Sjostrom

Lundmark Wallin Orr

Primeau

Defense

Beauchemin Phaneuf

Kaberle Schenn

Exelby Finger

*Gunnarsson

Goalie

Gustavsson

Giguere

ATLANTA

Forwards

Bergfors - Antropov - Afinogenov

MacArthur - Peverley - Little

Kane - Reasoner - Armstrong

Slater - Stapleton - Thorburn

Artyukhin

Defense

Enstrom - Kubina

Hainsey - Oduya

Popovic - Bogosian

Chelios

Goalie

Hedberg

Pavelec

Apparently, Gunnarson is feeling a bit under the weather, which is why he's penciled in as the seventh defenseman. He'll be a game time decision.

These are projected lineups, as I can't find a source for Atlanta's lineup. Defensive pairings for Atlanta are a complete guess - I'm just going off whether they're right or left handed and their place on the depth chart. I might be way off - if you have a more accurate source, please let me know.

Next Season

2010-03-30T14:28:00.001-04:00

Not to start off on a negative note, but it is absolutely impossible for the Leafs to make the playoffs this year. This is not a startling announcement - in fact, many people were boldly making this claim before the season even started.

Accurately, as it turns out, which is not so much an example of their psychic ability as it is an accurate assessment of the team's capabilities. Also, there might be a bit of the bizarre hatred that the Maple Leafs seem to consistently inspire in fans of other teams.

However, discussing that hatred is not the topic of this post - no, this post is inspired by a recent column by Damien Cox. In it, he raises a fair point:

Based on the quality of teams that will make the Stanley Cup playoffs out of the Eastern Conference, the Leafs will have only to improve from lousy to mediocre next season to find themselves in the thick of the hunt.

The Eastern Conference is weaker than the West - one only has to look at the standings to prove that. How much of an improvement would the Leafs have to make for next season to have a happier ending?

Well, it's not much. Let's look at the standings as they currently are in the Eastern Conference.

Image borrowed from nhl.com.

Ugh. That's unpleasant.

Anyway, the important part is as follows: even with the dismal season that the Leafs have had, they are still only six wins out of a playoff spot. Well, eleven points, but that's not exactly a huge difference.

Let's say the Leafs had somehow managed to get those six wins. Doesn't matter whom against. Suddenly, they're up there in the middle of the pack, and their record is still at... well, let's give them Boston's record (slightly modified) at 34W-29L-13OT, for a grand total of eighty-one points.

Hey, look! The Leafs are in eighth place in the conference. Depending on where you decide to arbitrarily apply wins in the season, you could even move them up to sixth if you decide Montreal and Philadelphia had particularly poor luck against Toronto this season.

The point here is that - assuming the East doesn't drastically improve over the offseason, and odds are it won't to the drastic degree required to throw off all the numbers - Toronto really doesn't need to do that much better. Hell, even if they had basically average play over the rough months this year they'd be in much better standing.

Check this out:

Behold. The record of the Maple Leafs during the months of October and January - by far the worst two of the season, although November wasn't much better.

In October, the team went (1-7-4), while in January they went (3-10-2), for a combined total of 14 points out of a possible 54. They only won four games out of twenty seven. Just having average results from those two months (for 27 points out of 54) would give them the eleven points they need for playoff position and an extra three for insurance.

The Leafs were atrocious in the first two thirds of the season. Even December, their best month, only had 8 wins out of 16 games. To do well in the East, an average performance is more than enough.

Hopefully, though, the Leafs will do a little better than that.

Game Day: New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs

2010-03-27T17:24:00.000-04:00

Borrowed the above image from the Maple Leafs website, and by extension from the NHL. Did so because I'm far from Ottawa, and as such do not have access to my resources for this site. Going to have to look into methods of resolving that particular issue.

Projected Lines

Nikolai Kulemin - Tyler Bozak - Phil Kessel
Luca Caputi - Mikhail Grabovski - Viktor Stalberg
John Mitchell - Christian Hanson - Freddie Sjostrom
Jamie Lundmark - Rickard Wallin - Colton Orr

Luke Schenn - Tomas Kaberle (A)
Dion Phaneuf (A) - Francois Beauchemin (A)
Jeff Finger - Carl Gunnarsson

Jonas Gustavsson
JS Giguere

*Healthy Scratches: Exelby, Primeau

Injuries

Mike Van Ryn - OUT: Knee Injury
Mike Komisarek - IR: Upper Body Injury

Brandon Dubinsky - Erik Christensen - Marian Gaborik
Sean Avery - Chris Drury (C) - Olli Jokinen
Enver Lisin - Vinny Prospal (A) - P.A. Parenteau
Jody Shelley - Artem Anisimov - Brandon Prust

Marc Staal - Michal Rozsival
Michael Del Zotto - Dan Girardi
Wade Redden - Anders Eriksson

Henrik Lundqvist
Alex Auld

*Healthy Scratches: Voros, Gilroy

Since the trade deadline...

2010-03-26T04:13:00.001-04:00

Click the image to expand it.

Just a little thought experiment. Dan, wondered a little voice in my head as I waited to fall asleep, have the Leafs had the best record in the league since the trade deadline?

"No," I responded, unimpressed with said voice. "Phoenix has been riding the awesome offensive power of Lee Stempniak to nine game winning streaks, you daft sod."

Oh, don't act like you're British.

Ahem. Anyway, it made me curious, so I did a little digging. You can see the results of said digging above. Turns out, no, Toronto is not doing the best since the trade deadline - in fact, they're not even in the top three.

Still, top five is nothing to be ashamed of, especially considering their sublimely poor performance earlier in the year. October and January were just killer months for Toronto. March is shaping up nicely, though.

Postgame: Toronto at Atlanta

2010-03-26T02:57:00.001-04:00

So. Toronto managed to win, but then again, so did every other team in the entire world. Well, except Florida, which isn't exactly a surprising exclusion. So he says, but they still managed to beat the Leafs. Anyway.

Just look at this horrible sight:

Ugh. Every single team on here gained ground - Columbus even somehow managed to defeat Chicago 8-3, scoring the most goals they've scored in a single game all year. Cripes. Just not our night.

At least we can look on the positives - if the Leafs had lost, the situation would be even more hopeless.

Game Day: Toronto at Atlanta

2010-03-25T19:13:00.002-04:00

PROJECTED LINES

TORONTO

Kulemin - Bozak - Kessel
Stalberg - Grabovski - Caputi
Mitchell - Hanson - Sjostrom
Orr - Wallin - Lundmark

Beauchemin - Phaneuf
Kaberle - Schenn
Gunnarson - Exelby

Gustavsson
Giguere

Komisarek (shoulder)
Van Ryn (knee)

ATLANTA
Bergfors - Antropov - Afinogenov

MacArthur - Peverley - Little

Kane - White - Armstrong

Slater - Reasoner - Thorburn

Kubina - Enstrom

Hainsey - Oduya

Bogosian - Chelios

Pavelec

Hedberg

Postgame: Florida at Toronto

2010-03-24T02:12:00.001-04:00

Well, that could have gone a little better. Toronto loses 4-1 to Florida, a team it desperately needed to beat if there was to be any real hope of getting out of the top 2 draft spots. Strangely enough, it didn't really hurt the Leafs to lose, but it did hurt the Panther's chances at the draft. More on that later on.

The game itself was rather dull - Florida played the trap, took advantage of a couple of Toronto miscues and got a lucky couple of bounces - with the empty net goal, that's quite literal. Toronto dominated the first period and came out rather flat for the second two, and despite managing a strong advantage in the shot count never really got any particularly dangerous chances outside of the first period.

A good effort in some respects, but the Florida trap strategy kept most of the shots coming from low-percentage outside areas, rather than anything in the faceoff/slot area. It also made for an exceptionally dull game that will be swiftly forgotten, except by those who pay entirely too much attention to a sports team.

Someone like, say, myself.

Best Leaf: #3 Dion Phaneuf
Phaneuf was a force on the ice today, and was rewarded with a substantial chunk of ice time. He made good defensive plays, played smart, led charges into the offensive zone, and in one memorable incident, bowled over the player with the puck, took the puck, and fired it at the net for a decent scoring chance. In a night without any truly memorable performances, Dion managed to stand out.

Worst Leaf: #39 John Mitchell
This is someone whom I think will be a frequent occupier of this position. While he did manage to score a couple of shootout goals in recent games, he was directly responsible for the first goal against in this game by making a stupid pass to Schenn that resulted in a swift turnover and goal for Florida. Generally sloppy play that rarely resulted in any real chances for his team and often did result in possibilities for Florida, Mitchell certainly shouldn't have been rewarded with as much playing time as he got tonight.

Also, there was that time where he was right in the slot with the puck on his stick and time to fire, and he elected instead to make a blind pass between his legs to nobody at all. That was odd.

______________________________________________

I'm never going to be someone who supports the whole tanking strategy; where you hope for your team to have such a terrible season that they end up at the top of the draft order and pick a surefire star that might be able to transform your team into a winner in a few years.

Why would I support that strategy, anyway? I didn't this season and it turned out that way regardless. It's almost like what I want has little to no effect on a professional sports team I have no actual contact with.

Anyway, the reason I said this game didn't really hurt the Leafs and instead hurt the Panthers has everything to do with the draft; specifically, the draft picks the Leafs no longer have, but the Panthers do. It's an interesting situation where one team wants to win to get out of their position in the standings, but the other would benefit most by losing and getting closer to the bottom of the standings, as it becomes increasingly more likely they won't make the playoffs.

Good luck getting a team of hyper-competitive mercenary athletes to deliberately try to lose, though. Generally taking a dive is not perceived well in sports. Well, aside from swimming.

______________________________________________

I will be honest - the reason I want Toronto to get out the draft position it's in is entirely to spite Boston. No, wait, that's not right - it's to spite Boston fans.

It's somewhat of a negative reflection on myself, perhaps, but I just find it irritating when a fanbase giddily celebrates your failure and cockily slots star players into their tentative lineups for next year, and I want desperately for that fanbase to be denied that particular joy.

Really, even fourth place would be enough. I would be ecstatic to see Seguin in an Oilers jersey, Hall in an Islanders jersey, and Fowler sporting a charming Hurricanes frock, while Boston must make do with whatever's left in an apparently weak draft year.

That does, however, make me seem rather petty. I suppose I'll just have to live with that.

Liveblog: Florida at Toronto

2010-03-23T19:18:00.016-04:00

Going on break - got to make dinner.

8:27: Kulemin, yet again, shows why he deserves a good contract. He impresses me more each game.

8:25: Caputi needs to control his temper - though I can understand why he'd be a bit pissed off. Could have broken his face against the boards, there.

8:22: Chances on both ends for both teams; a rather dull game has picked up. Leaf penalty to Caputi, I think.

8:14: Pace of play has started to pick up.

8:12: Really starting to become a big fan of Sjostrom. One of the better Burke acquisitions.

8:07: Leafs third line manages to maintain pressure, astonishingly.

8:06: Good stop by Giguere there.

7:48: End of the first period. Another embarrassing interviewing performance by that forgettable orange-haired bloke with Sjostrom. Sjostrom was fine, just to clarify.

Leafs generally outplayed the Panthers, but one poor decision by Mitchell led to a Florida goal. The Leafs defense does seem to have some difficulties on the power play - weak shots lead to easy saves or a lack of quality deflections. Leafs managed to outshoot the Panthers 19-7 in that period, apparently. I'm going to have to check those numbers, though. Hopefully the Leafs manage a few better chances in the next period.

7:43: Two man advantage for the Leafs. See if they can perform.

7:42: Penalties everywhere! Leafs surrender.

7:37: Excellent play by Kulemin. Once again proving why he deserves to be resigned.

7:34: Leafs are managing to get into the zone, but they're not really handling their chances that well. I'd say they're generally playing better than Florida, though.

7:29: Both Schenn and Mitchell made mistakes there, but I'd put the blame more on Mitchell.

7:28: Goal by #10 David Booth! The goal was unassisted.

7:22: That was not the best Kessel breakaway. Clemmensen poke checked it, yes, but he shouldn't have gotten the chance.

7:18: Penalty expires and the Leaf power play woes continue.

7:17: Leafs maintaining pressure during this powerplay, but no shots. Grabovski apparently shoots the puck
bravely back down into his own zone by accident. Phaneuf drives into the zone, nicely done.

03/22/2010 - Game Day: Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

2010-03-23T19:04:00.000-04:00

PROJECTED LINES

LEAFS
Kulemin   -   Bozak    -    Kessel
Stalberg    -   Grabovski -   Caputi
Mitchell -   Hanson -   Lundmark
Sjostrom -   Wallin -   Orr

Kaberle -   Schenn
Beacuhemin -   Phaneuf
Gunarsson -   Finger

Giguere

Gustavsson

PANTHERS
Stillman -   Weiss -   Horton
Booth -   Reinprecht -   Bitz
Frolik -   Matthian -   Dvorak
Tarnasky -   Kreps -   Olesz

McCabe -   Garrison
Ballard -   Allen
Kulikov -   Ellerby

Clemmensen

Vokoun

03/22/2010 - Today's Games

2010-03-23T16:31:00.006-04:00

Well, there's a bit of a problem with the "catch the other teams" bit and getting out the lottery positions. Tampa Bay seems to be imploding and only Carolina and Florida of the other teams in our neighborhood have decent records over the past ten games (with both of those teams clocking 5-4-1 records, and Tampa Bay scoring an abysmal 2-7-1).

Wait, that's not the problem. That's the good news.

The problem lies in the fact that a lot of these teams seem to be playing each other in the near future. Which makes sense, I suppose, seeing as Carolina, Tampa, and Florida are all in the rather weak Southeast division. (As an aside, the Southeast has taken up four of the bottom ten spots in the league, which puts Washington's stellar record into a bit of a dubious light).

For example, Tampa Bay, over the next ten games, plays Carolina and Florida twice. While Tampa Bay's recent poor play does imply that they'll likely lose these games, it has the unfortunate side effect of boosting the stats of other teams we're trying to catch.

Ah, well. C'est la vie. To today's games.

(30-34-8, 68 PTS) (28-32-12, 68 PTS)

7:30 PM - NHL.COM PREVIEW

SEASON SERIES: 2-2

This game annoys me. Unfortunately, the best we can hope for is that Carolina manages to utterly destroy the Lightning, shatters their spirits, and send them plummeting in the standings. Or at least that one of these teams wins in regular time. A 3-point game in this situation is the worst possible outcome.

(29-31-12, 70 PTS) (42-25-4, 88 PTS)

7:00 PM - NHL.COM PREVIEW

SEASON SERIES: First Meeting.

This bodes well, I suppose. Columbus up against a strong New Jersey squad, although New Jersey has been having some difficulties with their power play of late (they've gone 0-17 in six games). New Jersey has a marginally better record over the past ten games (5-4-1 to Columbus' 4-3-3). We'll see how his one goes - for whatever reason, I have a gut feeling that Columbus will somehow pull out a win on this one.

(46-22-5, 97 PTS) (45-19-7, 97 PTS)

8:30 PM - NHL.COM PREVIEW

SEASON SERIES: 3-0 Phoenix

This game is as far from being relevant for the Leafs as its possible to be, but that won't stop me from bringing it up. The Coyotes, which are incessantly being described as "upstart", will be able to take both the lead in the Western Conference and likely secure a playoff berth with a win tonight; mind you, the Blackhawks can do the same thing with a win in this game. The idea of Phoenix taking the lead in anything just strikes me as ridiculous, but there you are.

03/22/2010 - Current Standings

2010-03-23T12:00:00.000-04:00

None of the relevant teams actually played yesterday, so that makes my job with this post a hell of a lot easier.

03/21/2010 - Current Standings

2010-03-22T12:00:00.000-04:00

Things actually went rather well last night. Carolina lost, and somebody had to win between Tampa Bay and Florida, so it may as well be the team that can't get as far away if they win.

Profile: Phil Kessel

2010-03-22T02:02:00.006-04:00

(Photo by Graig Abel/NHLI via Getty Images)

The trade for Phil Kessel will be one that will be long discussed by Toronto and Boston fans, as it has without a doubt changed the fortunes of these two franchises substantially. While debate rages on whether or not the trade was worth it, especially considering Toronto's likely place in the standings by the end of the season, there remains one central fact:

That debate will not affect the trade. It cannot be undone.

So, with that in mind, we'll look forward and take a look at the concrete facts of the matter.

______________________________________________

Phil Kessel is the current leader in points for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He leads in goals, shots taken (with 268, or 4.46... shots a game), and points per game (with 0.86); he's also second in assists, with only Tomas Kaberle ahead of him in that department. He's done all this, and he didn't even start playing until the 3rd of November.

While he without a doubt the most skilled offensive player on the Leafs, and one of the few to be a genuine threat to score whenever he's on the ice, he does have his flaws. He's not the strongest player, and the ease with which he skates may look like laziness to some, and most problematic at all is his difficulties on the defensive end of the ice.

However, when considering Kessel (and several other players on the Maple Leafs), it's important to keep in mind that he is only 22 years old. The prime of a hockey player in the NHL is generally agreed to be in the mid to late 20s. What does this mean to you?

What it means, and what I find most exciting of all, is that Kessel is only at the beginning in his career; the best from him is yet to come.

Pure Sniper

Now, I'm a fan of Kessel, and I'm glad the Leafs have him. He's capable of scoring some truly excellent goals, he can also set up goals, and his snap shot is particularly impressive.

I will admit that for the amount of cap hit that Kessel takes in, you might have some high expectations as to what kind of production he's obligated to provide. At the moment, he's 9 points off a point per game pace, and he's merely tied for 18th in goals across the entire league. That puts him ahead of such nobodies like Malkin, Datsyuk, Kane, Toews, and St. Louis, and tied with luminaries like Henrik Sedin and Richards.

Granted, all of the aforementioned players have more points than Kessel, but all of them have also played more games, and nearly all of them are older than him (with the exception of Toews and Kane). Also, all of those players have higher cap hits, with the exception of St. Louis.

St. Louis, by the way, is excellent value for money. Just an aside.

A Small Experiment

Now, Kessel can be streaky at times. Right now he's scored goals in five of his last six games, but in the stretch of six games previous to that, he only scored one. Why am I bringing this up?

Because during a stretch of eleven games from December 18th to January 8th, Kessel only managed to score a single goal. That's it. One point. This is despite taking 53 shots, and potentially getting a bunch of assists from however many plays he contributed to. That's some pretty bad luck.

It is convenient, though, that he had such a clearly defined streak of bad luck. On either side of it is fairly typical play - one point games all over the place, the occasional two- or three-point game, and so forth.

What this allows us to do is remove that one particular bad stretch - as anyone can have bad luck - and see what happens to Kessel's stats.

Now, I'm well aware that this is a silly comparison - if I decided to take out all the games where Kessel didn't score, he magically becomes a player who has scored points in every single game of the year! Amazing! Give him the Hart!

I'm not arguing that Kessel will never have another bad streak - he does tend to have periods of several games where he doesn't get any points, and perhaps as he ages he'll grow to be a more consistent point-getter. At the moment, though, he's providing plenty of points, and I'm excited to see how his season is going to end up.

After all, as you may have noticed from my previous post, I'm quite a fan of the current top line of the Leafs. I'm really looking forward to see how they do for the last ten games of the season.

The Trade

It has been discussed to death. You can whinge on and on about whether or not you think it was a good idea or not. It has been done, it can't be undone, and until those draft picks (regardless of where they end up in the lottery or not) actually turn into productive NHL players, Toronto has won this trade.

As Kessel only promises to get better with age, it'll likely be a couple of years before Boston's draft pick begins to provide any serious production, and Boston has become the absolute worst offensive team in the NHL with the loss of Kessel (not to say they haven't had other problems), I feel comfortable in that conclusion.

Also, consider that this means that Toronto has benefited from the trade immediately (despite what you may believe from their place in the standings) while Boston has grown markedly worse in the hope of being better years later... maybe.

Whether you think the risk was worth it - for either team - is poisoned by hindsight on this rather underwhelming season, so try to keep that in mind. I believe the trade was worth it, rather than spending an entire season gunning for failure. You may not agree with my perspective.

You have that right.

Assuming that Toronto's young players - who are already in the league and seemingly able to compete at this point at the NHL level, albeit with the occasional error due to inexperience - continue to improve with time over the course of the next season, it'll be interesting to see just which team is in better shape by the end of the next couple of seasons.

03/20/2010 - Current Standings

2010-03-21T21:53:00.000-04:00

Just updating the numbers. Unfortunately, Florida won today against Tampa Bay, which makes things a bit more difficult, and those two teams will play each other another two times before the end of the season. The last two games of the season for those teams, in fact, which should make the end of the season particularly exciting from our perspective.

Carolina has also lost, so currently Toronto is within four points of three other teams. One can only hope that margin is a little slimmer by Tuesday night.

Addendum: Congratulations to the Phoenix Coyotes for taking the lead in the Southeast Division away from the San Jose Sharks for at least a couple hours. Judging by how the game against the Oilers is going, it looks like the Coyotes will hold onto this lead for a little while.

Top Line Stats

2010-03-21T20:42:00.001-04:00

Sorry for missing out on the Montreal-Toronto game last night - that's a confrontation I'm not eager to miss. It's a rivalry that's lived far longer than the one between Ottawa and Toronto, and it has certainly not mellowed with age.

Speaking of which, the Ottawa-Toronto rivalry is one that has died down quite a bit in recent years. I presume it's due to the fact that the rivalry there reached its previous fever pitch due to Ottawa's unfortunate tendency to lose to Toronto in the playoffs, but it's been a few years since the Leafs were even in the playoffs. To be specific, the last time those two teams tussled in the postseason was in... 2004 (The Leafs won 4-3 in the first round, by the way).

But I digress.

The point of this post is actually to mention something I saw about the Leafs top line forwards. Over at HockeyAnalysis, they were discussing the performance of the top line of the Maple Leafs, and comparing them against some other teams that are doing particularly well at the moment. They did the number crunching, I just decided to put it in an attractive graphic format:

Click the image to expand it.

Interesting development, eh? For comparison, look at their stats for the eleven games previous to the trade deadline. I am aware that these players were not playing together on the same line - Kulemin was relegated to third line duty, Stajan and the others hadn't been traded yet - so the stats do not really correspond with each other. Still, it's intriguing to see the differences.

Click the image to expand it.

Clearly, Kulemin has been the one to benefit the most from the change in circumstances. While previously he was in line to score fewer points this season than last, he's already broken into unknown territory and likely to get even further ahead. Meanwhile, Bozak has increased his production by 66% and Kessel has actually lost ground, strangely enough.

For reference, Kulemin's career year (and rookie season) was a 15G16A31P performance. He's now at 32 points, with ten games left in the season and going a point-per-game pace - if you choose to ignore the rest of the season beyond the last eleven games.

Which I will choose to do for the purposes of this discussion. Massaging statistics is an interesting way to spend time.

03/20/2010 - Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

2010-03-20T15:42:00.001-04:00

7:00 PM EDT - NHL.COM PREVIEW

LIVE ON: CBC (HD),NHLN-US (HD),RDS (HD)

LINES
T O R O N T O

Kulemin - Bozak - Kessel
Stalberg - Grabovski - Caputi
Mitchell - Hanson - Lundmark
Orr - Wallin - Sjostrom

Beauchemin - Phaneuf
Kaberle - Schenn
Finger - Gunnarsson

Gustavsson
Giguere

M O N T R E A L

Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta
Pyatt - Plekanec - A.Kostitsyn
Moen - Moore - S.Kostitsyn
Lapierre - Metropolit - Darche

Markov - O'Byrne
Hamrlik - Spacek
Gill - Gorges

Halak

03/20/2010 - Non-Leafs Game Previews

2010-03-20T15:34:00.000-04:00

So. There will not be a preview for the Leaf game, I'm afraid - at least not one with anything that anyone could call substantial content. Seems that I have made other plans for today. The joys of living in a student house - a kegger has suddenly appeared and I must stand at my post.

However, there are still things that I must write. Among those are the previews of the other games happening in the NHL today. To wit:

2 PM EDT - NHL COM PREVIEW

This game, more than any other tonight (with the obvious exception of the Leafs game) is the most critical game for the Leafs - and it's taking place right now! Predictions are a bit silly, I'm afraid, when the product is already on the ice. The score is currently tied 2-2 at the end of regulation. Cheer for the Penguins, people - the Hurricanes need to lose for the Leafs to gain any ground.

At the moment, the Hurricanes are ahead by four points on the year. Losing this game will help the Leafs immeasurably, assuming the Leafs can even win against a strong Montreal squad.

7 PM EDT - NHL.COM PREVIEW

The Panthers are another team in the Leafs' sights; they're ahead only five points, which can be cut down to three if the Leafs win tonight. They're up against a skilled Buffalo team with arguably the best goalie in the world behind them in Ryan Miller. It feels a bit odd to cheer for Buffalo, I admit, but I can make an exception in this case.

7:30 PM EDT - NHL.COM PREVIEW

Ovechkin's back on the ice after his 2-game suspension, and he gets back on the ice to go up against St. Louis and Stamkos. There's a lot of a talent on this ice in this game, but when you have a team that's as offensively powerful as the Capitals, it's hard to bet against them. Still, it's not like Washington has won every game this season, and it's not like there aren't people on the Lightning that can score goals.

10:30 PM EDT - NHL.COM PREVIEW

Well, the Kings have been slumping a bit of late, and the Islanders are recovering after the Anaheim Ducks managed a comeback win against them in overtime last night.The Kings have a 3-4-1 record since the Olympic break, which may be making some people a bit nervous. It certainly makes me a bit more worried. There's no such thing as a guaranteed win in this league - which speaks well to the parity of the teams, even if the records are a bit more reflective of imbalance.

Unfortunately, even if everything goes perfectly from a Leaf perspective (which it hasn't, already - the Hurricanes have already secured at least one point), they still will not be closer than three points away from any other team. Closer than they have been at other points during the season, but still, there's much ground left to be caught up.

Addendum: The Hurricanes just won in overtime against the Penguins. The Leafs' job just got harder.

03192010 - Postgames

2010-03-19T23:23:00.007-04:00

I'll update this post throughout the night, as games end or until I pass out. Seeing as I'm not exactly going to disappoint a large audience, I'm not terribly concerned about this at the current time. Anyway. To business.

Thus far, I'm having poor luck with my picks for the night. It's almost like I'm making estimates on things that, despite my best intentions, I don't know that much about. In this case, I'm referring to the players themselves - if it's not about Toronto, or to a lesser extent Eastern Conference teams, I'm mostly no better than the layman on the street.

I don't see this as a flaw, though. I consider it a problem that I can fix. I must fix it, really, if this site is going to have any legitimacy at all.

I'll give Columbus credit - evidently I didn't think they had enough to beat Minnesota, but they managed it with the help of two goals from their captain (including a particularly nice goal on a breakaway). Alas, their getting points is a bit of a setback, as is the Islanders getting a point in their rather unexpected overtime loss.

On another note: Good lord. Poor Dubnyk. At least watching the Edmonton-Detroit game gave me the chance to hear an excellent line from the commentators:

"Cogliano was trying to wind up, but Kronwall cut off his face."

At least he won, though. Devan Dubnyk gets his first NHL win, after eleven tries. Good to see it.

Thus far, my predictions are not exactly panning out.

Predictions
San Jose vs. Calgary: 3-2 San Jose (Final score: 4-3 Calgary)
NY Islanders vs. Anaheim: 4-3 Anaheim (Final score: 5-4 Anaheim, OT)
Detroit vs. Edmonton: 3-1 Detroit (Final score: 3-2 Edmonton OT)
Minnesota vs. Columbus: 4-2 Minnesota (Final score: 4-2 Columbus)

Well, I only picked one score right, and the teams were reversed. Only picked one winner right, too - Anaheim over the Islanders. With a 25% accuracy rate thus far, you may be able to get more accurate predictions from throwing a dart at the sports page. Hopefully, I'll improve from here on out.

Technorati

2010-03-19T12:06:00.000-04:00

For the purposes of getting this blog listed on Technorati, I must prove I am an author of this blog and post the following code: 2EQMKFJ3JZHS.

03/19/2010 - Non-Leafs Game Previews

2010-03-19T09:46:00.000-04:00

So. Here's another thing I'll do on this site, I suppose - provide previews of other games going on in the league based on their relevance to the Leaf quest (or at least my Leaf quest) to get out of the draft lottery positions. Probably not going to happen, I know - there's a lot of ground to make up and not much time to do it in - but it's nice to dream, eh? I've not felt this much excitement in a non-playoff year in... well, ever.

Onwards.

Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets

This game, however unimportant it may be to the Eastern playoff picture, is particularly relevant to the Leaf cause. This is because the Blue Jackets are one of the teams the Leafs could theoretically catch. The Blue Jackets have 67 points on the year thus far, and that puts them only five points ahead of the Leafs, who rest at 62 points.

Five points is not a particularly forgiving margin in the NHL, however - we basically need every team remotely near us in the standings to do terribly at this point, but there's a bit of a wrinkle in that plan.

You may have noticed that the Leafs are doing better these days than they've generally done through the rest of the season. There are a few reasons for this (trades, young players trying to earn spots, etc.) and there's plenty of room for debate on what exactly is the biggest cause of this recent improvement in play. What everyone can agree on, however, is the complete removal of playoff stress, and the Leafs are not the only team that is in such an... ignominious position.

However, keep in mind I haven't watched Columbus play much, if at all, this whole season; as such, I'm not particularly acquainted with their skill level. Perhaps they belong where they are in the standings. Also, Minnesota is desperately fighting for a playoff spot, so this game might end up being a beating.

To be honest, I'm dreadfully uninformed about both these teams - I should really watch this game, as I know nothing, really, about either of them.

Takeaways: Basically, cheer for Minnesota. Minnesota is on a three game winning streak, while Columbus won their last game 5-3... against Edmonton. Minnesota is playing their backup goalie, but Columbus may be missing Rick Nash. This one's a bit of a tossup, but I'd give the ball to Minnesota, if just because this game only really matters to one team.
Projected Score: Hell if I know. Let's say 4-2 Minnesota.

Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers

This game is, in all honesty, not relevant. With a 13 point gap between the Oilers and the next-worst team (the Leafs... sigh), it would take an unprecedented streak from the Oil for them to possibly climb out of last place - and even if they did that, it's extremely improbable that they'd be able to climb anywhere higher than 29th place.

Why would they even want to do that, anyway? With an almost-certain lock on the first draft pick in 2010 (likely to be Tyler Seguin, possibly Taylor Hall), the Oilers would benefit most from losing this game. I expect them to try, though - good luck getting a team of competitive athletes to deliberately try to lose.

Takeaways: I will be very surprised if Detroit doesn't win this game. At this point in the season, with the Wings close to missing the playoffs for the first time in roughly two decades, this game is basically a gift to Detroit.
Projected Score: 3-1 Detroit.

San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames

This game is also irrelevant to the Leafs - even more so than the Edmonton game. This is a match-up between a team certain to make the playoffs and one struggling to sneak into the playoffs through the back door. Neither of these teams will have anything to do with the draft lottery.

Takeaways: San Jose is a very dangerous regular season team - there's plenty of reasons as to why they're where they are in the standings. Calgary, however, has desperation on its side - with Detroit likely picking up two points in Edmonton, they practically have to win this game to have a good chance in the playoff race. Still, gotta cheer for the Canadian team, eh?
Projected Score: 3-2 San Jose

New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks

Ah, we return to relevance. Two of the lower-end teams in the league (although if you check the standings, the Ducks are in 13th in the West, but if they were in the East, they would be in 9th place and only two points out of a playoff spot. In the West, they're 8 points out. Eep.) competing for scraps. Both of these teams are very unlikely to make the playoffs, so that means they matter to us.

The Leafs losing to the Islanders was a particularly harsh blow, as right now we want the Islanders to get as few points as possible. Consider this - if the Leafs had won against the Islanders last Sunday, they would now be only one point behind the Islanders and two points behind Carolina. Alas, they did not, and the gap is large. Also, dwelling on the past is a waste of time; forgive me if I do forget that from time to time.

Now, the Islanders have a little win streak going (3 games) while the Ducks have won their last two games. The Isles have done slightly better over their last ten games, and seeing as they're only seven points behind the Bruins for 8th in the East, they may have spotted a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.

Takeaways: Really comes down to who wants it more in this one. However, from a Leaf perspective, we want the Islanders to lose this one. Quite badly, if I'm honest.
Projected Score: 4-3 Anaheim

03/18/2010 - New Jersey at Toronto - Postgame Report

2010-03-18T22:21:00.018-04:00

Sorry for the delay, nonexistent crowds - had to turn off my computer to install 2 gigs of RAM. Now it's in there, and my Photoshop should be working nicely now. And so it is! Marvelous improvement. I love it.

Well. The game had its interesting moments, but up until the final five minutes of the second period, I found it to be a rather dull game. Unfortunately, it became more lively when the Devils scored courtesy of Clarkson, but I suppose it turned out alright in the end. The youth of the Toronto squad was reflected in their seeming difficulty in restraining a more experienced and inarguably more skilled New Jersey team (with names like Parise, Kovalchuk, Langenbrunner, and Elias, can you really contest that claim?), but New Jersey's difficulty in scoring even with that high-end talent should be taken as a positive.

Again, I found myself impressed with the play of a very young Leafs team. Obviously, I'm biased (as the website might indicate to the more astute reader), but personally I enjoy the thought that this inexperienced group of young players can keep up with some of the league's best. Granted, the Devils didn't really show up for the first half of the game, but still.

I'd say the first period was the best of any the Leafs played in this game. The Leafs came out strong and fast against a Devils team that seemed bewildered and unenthusiastic about the game they were playing, and it showed when the Leafs dominated the play and maintained consistent control of the puck in the Devils zone. Getting quality scoring chances is another matter, but I figure that more chances will come as these younger players mesh as a team and develop individually.

New Jersey was kept to only five shots in the first period, and only one seemed to be difficult for Jean-Sebastien Giguere to handle.

Goals

TORONTO - #81 Phil Kessel (27); Assisted by #3 Dion Phaneuf (16) and #39 John Mitchell (11)

A powerful shot from Dion Phaneuf as he swept down the side rebounded away from Yann Danis and ended up directly on Phil Kessel's stick. Kessel was left staring at a wide open net, and he won't miss those shots often.

After fifteen minutes of mostly unenthusiastic play from the Devils, strong motivation was found in the quality play of David Clarkson. Clearly visible all over the ice, Clarkson gave his team a much needed shot of energy with his play down low and by scoring the only goal the Devils would get all night (with the exception of one shootout marker, of course). I don't think it's too out of line to credit Clarkson with perking his team up and getting them moving; he certainly made the game much more interesting than it had been previously.

A particularly telling stat about this period: for the first thirty minutes of the game, the Devils only managed seven shots on net. They equaled that amount of shots in the last ten minutes of the second period.

Goals

NEW JERSEY - #23 David Clarkson (9); Assisted by #22 Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond (1) and #6 Andy Greene (31)
After a scrum along the boards, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond gained control of the puck and threw it to the slot. A driving Clarkson received the pass and fired the puck past a reaching Garnet Exelby and caught Giguere over the glove hand.

The third period was mostly controlled by the Devils - they got more shots, and more chances, and generally maintained and extended the pressure that they had shown signs of at the end of the second on a younger Leafs squad that looked quite hard pressed to contain them at times.While there was some sloppy play at times by the Leafs, strong play by Giguere bailed them out time and time again during this period.

There was also a particularly strange penalty called on Nikolai Kulemin - well, one of two strange penalties. While the first could be forgiven, the second was more perplexing. Kulemin skated into the crease area and rather comically sent three Devils players crashing to the ground around him; no infraction was visible in the replays, and I'm rather curious what exactly Kulemin did in the eyes of the referee aside from being strong enough to bowl over three hardened athletes without any visible effort.

I recognize that I may have some blue-tinted glasses on, but I like to think the tint is very mild. I'll call out penalties my own team commits when they commit them, but I didn't see any penalty on that play.

Goals

No goals scored this period.

The overtime period was a good showing by the Leafs - physical, pushing the zone, and generally controlling the play. The Leafs started with a power play in overtime - albeit only for a few seconds - but they never really lost control of the flow of play. The last minute of overtime was particularly energetic, with the Leafs managing a few good opportunities, even if it isn't reflected in the shot count.

The shootout was a bit of an unusual thing for the Leafs - all three of the Leafs shooters scored. Kessel, Kulemin, and John Mitchell all managed goals to put the game away, while Zach Parise scored a marker for the Devils. Giguere stopped the second Devil attempt to help win the game for his team.

Overall, it was a fairly interesting contest, if just because I was watching it with significantly more focus towards commentary than usual. I must concede that particular joy is most likely not a common feeling - I don't know too many places that write up post-game reports like this that aren't newspapers.

In general, I'm happy with the play of the Leafs in this game, but there were definitely moments where they looked like the young and nearly last-place team that they are. The first period was excellent, the second and large parts of the third were not. If this Leafs team wants to make any sort of consistent improvement, even in this forgettable season, they will need to learn how to play the full sixty minutes.

Also, they desperately need to improve on the power play - whatever the cause behind the recent decline, it must be cured or the Leafs won't be going anywhere. Granted, this season is already lost, but if they hope to get out of lottery position by the end of the season, special teams are a pretty integral part of any successful team. At least the penalty kill is doing well, and only promises to improve with the return of Fredrik Sjostrom.

---

The next game will take place at 7:00 PM on Saturday, March 20th, 2010. It will feature the Montreal Canadiens against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. The game can be watched on CBC(HD), ,NHLN-US(HD), and RDS(HD).

Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblanc scored his first point of the season, an assist, on the first and only New Jersey goal. He has played in 18 games this season.
Phil Kessel has scored 5 goals over the last 5 games, but only 6 over the past 10. Still, extended over an 82 game season, that 10-game scoring pace would net him 49 goals.
Mikhail Grabovski saw his point streak end tonight at 5 games. Over that stretch, he scored five points.
Dion Phaneuf scored his fourth point as a Leaf, and it took 14 games to do so. He has not scored a goal since January 30th, when he was still a Flame.
The three stars of the game, according to NHL.com, were:

Jean-Sebastien Giguere (TOR)
Phil Kessel (TOR)
Yann Danis (NJ)