League of Dorks

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 21:02:00 +0000

New Methodology

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 04:46:00 +0000

I won the Handsome Gents league in 2002, finished 4th in 2003, finished 3rd in 2004, and have since retreated to the rear of the pack. I don't think it is a coincidence that my slide conformed to becoming more overtly SABRmetric in 2005 and beyond. Ironically, my general instinct towards trending stats like slugging and OBP had served me well until I really began trying to grasp the number-crunching that intense analysis requires. And failed miserably.

When I added free agents David Ortiz and Johan Santana as Twins early in their careers, the value I saw in the former was an abnormal percentage of extra-base hits (51% in 2001), and a tremendous K/BB ratio (nearly 3-1 when he came out of the pen as a 23-year-old in 2002) and K/9 in the latter. Just looking for these basic trends paid off huge dividends. I wish the Yahoo! wayback machine included my championship team in its archives, but for some reason, that single year is N/A. I would like to see who else was on that team.

As I became more aware of overlooked statistical categories in the post-Moneyball era, I now feel confident that I completely and utterly misunderstood what I was reading. Especially when it came to the Baseball Prospectus. Basically, I was totally misreading the meaning of VORP. And misinterpreting the Breakout/Improve/Collapse percentages.

Main goals for 2008:

1) Build a team around several expensive players who deliver above average OPS, HR and RBI.

2) Young speed with upside over old speed with no other value.

3) No pitcher over $10 (except Rich Hill and Cole Hamels, who cost me $17 each)

4) Position scarcity is real! (and even more important in a snake draft...more to come on that, too)

5) No AL starters. Relievers are ok.

I kept Brandon Phillips($25), who the Prospectus is a little sour on, and Justin Upton($14). Phillips is a 30-30 threat who never walks and Upton is a nice breakout candidate. This meant jettisoning Travis Hafner, Andruw Jones, and a number of other guys that killed me last year.

My goal was to spend whatever it took to get: Aramis Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Mark Teixeira, and Billy Butler. And I did. I was going to punt catcher if Brian McCann got too high, and he did. Josh Bard is my kind of catcher: a good hitter who won't kill my AVG. Likewise, I was going to go with bargain basement J.J. Hardy if Tejada got too pricey, and he did. In our league SS was a challenged position with Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes, Tulowitzki, and Guillen all kept. I didn't want Jeter, and Young, Renteria, Cabrera, Polanco all felt the same to me. Hardy started strong last year and faded, but hit 25 HRs and is on a pretty loaded lineup. When Tejada was going to go in the $20s, Hardy for 1/3 the price seemed like a really good way to save some money, and my only competition would be our two Brewer homers. Turns out he was even cheaper than I expected. Kelly Johnson was a nice surprise addition to my bench, especially since PECOTA likes him much more than Phillips.

To fill out the outfield, I wanted a combination of upside and youth with lots of power potential, because you can always find a 20+ HR guy on the waiver wire. My shortlist consisted of Nick Swisher(new park, lots of BBs), Rick Ankiel, and Josh Hamilton. All of whom I got by dropping my minor league keeper Cameron Maybin, when one bonehead dropped Hamilton after the auction. I would certainly make that trade if offered.

The only rule I really broke in this draft was the last one.

When you are limited to $10, your pitching needs to trend towards the sleeper and overlooked varieties. When I threw out Gil Meche, I didn't expect to get him for $1. This was fairly early on in the auction. But this is the kind of bargain that delivers the stats of a 15-game winner without the couple of extra wins, which I can easily make up in relief. I've really taken wins out of the equation altogether in Head-to-Head leagues. They are impossible to predict, and often times come in bunches or not at all. Quality starts is a much better indicator of a valuable H2H pitcher, where you're going to get more reliable stats across the board. Of course, I hadn't made the final leap to this conclusion until after my NL-only draft. Still, my instinct with Meche was solid, at least with regards to last year.

With Brett Myers and Brad Penny, I was bidding them up to cover $10, and they simply fell to me. I had both of them last year, and they served me well. Both are somewhat risky and injury-prone, but should pay off much higher than their auction value.

I opted out of all the big time relievers and battled our KC homer for Joakim Soria. B.J. Ryan was kind of a mistake. For some reason, I totally blanked at his time removed from surgery, and I would never in my right mind have taken him. But for $9, there is a lot of upside there. At this point in the auction, Tejada and Halladay got tossed out, and I bailed as I was already saving a bunch for Nick Swisher and around $8 each for some combination of J.J. Hardy, Billy Butler and my holds guys Pat Neshek, Tony Pena (ARI), Carlos Marmol, or Heath Bell with 5 slots left. Kelly Johnson went way under. Butler was under. Marmol was right there. And, thus, I had $22 left over to claim Neshek.

Some of that money could have gone to Tejada or Roy Halladay, who were both in $20 range, but I chickened out because I felt that Swisher, Butler, Hardy and my starters were going to cost me a lot more. My three starters not kept cost me $8!! So, would I rather have Halladay than Myers? Probably. But I didn't want to cost myself a shot at very tradeable OF commodities just to break my rule on AL starters.

To sum up: This is the way an auction should go. I got everyone I wanted up and down the line, and it cost me less than expected. I'm very slow on the bases, but Phillips and Sizemore plus the random odd SB should help me contend at least half the time. Nearly every starter except C and SS and Upton has a shot at 30 HRs and 80 RBI. I don't think any other team in my league can claim that.

I'll get to the results of my NL-only draft next. Then, I have some thoughts on H2H strategies that defy the popular wisdom.

Oh. And I did make the semis in my NBA league. Not too shabby.

Handsome Gents auction result

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 05:16:00 +0000

Now down to 12 teams after contraction. $260 draft cap. No contracts. Obviously the $22 on Neshek was my last purchase. I left about $16 on the table. Who could I have had with my remaining money? Probably Tejada over Hardy, Halladay over Myers.

Commentary to come...

Adam W (awisniewski)

Pos

Name

Team

Salary

Mark Teixeira

Braves (ATL)

Nick Swisher

White Sox (CHW)

Josh Bard

Padres (SDP)

Kelly Johnson

Braves (ATL)

Brandon Phillips

Reds (CIN)

Cameron Maybin

Marlins (FLA)

Grady Sizemore

Indians (CLE)

Justin Upton

Diamondbacks (ARI)

Rick Ankiel

Cardinals (STL)

Aramis Ramirez

Cubs (CHC)

J.J. Hardy

Brewers (MIL)

Billy Butler

Royals (KCR)

Rich Hill

Cubs (CHC)

Brad Penny

Dodgers (LAD)

Cole Hamels

Phillies (PHI)

Gil Meche

Royals (KCR)

Joakim Soria

Royals (KCR)

Brett Myers

Phillies (PHI)

Pat Neshek

Twins (MIN)

B.J. Ryan

Blue Jays (TOR)

Carlos Marmol

Cubs (CHC)

So, a main reason why we're back

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 04:32:00 +0000

It's baseball time, and I'm really excited for this season. I did not do a ton of research before my drafts, but I skimmed through the Baseball Prospectus and pretty much ignored all the news coming out of Spring Training, except for injuries.

I had a horrible season last year where I was just slaughtered by Andruw Jones, Travis Hafner, Jeremy Hermida, Julio Lugo, Scott Linebrink, Daniel Cabrera, and Mike Gonzalez. At one point, I had 4 pitchers on the DL. Whaaa whaaa whaaa. Losing in fantasy isn't fun. And perhaps that put me into a funk that lasted through most of the NBA season thus far. Ironically, when I've had a chance to watch the NBA this year, I've enjoyed it more than ever. Not worrying about the overall maintenance of my team may have been a factor, but by the All-Star break, I was really energized into revamping my NBA team and making the playoffs, which I have done.

This year, I am in two baseball leagues. the sixth year of my keeper/auction local (now nationwide), and a new NL-Only local with a bunch of friends who for the most part have not done fantasy baseball before but are knowledgeable fans. I feel right now that I can win both. Let's get to the how...

Wow. Blogger plus images plus Safari = not happy right now

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 04:28:00 +0000

Here's the best shot of the night, as Nate Robinson and Joel Przybilla go up for a jump ball. Check out how high Nate gets.

With apologies for basketball season

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 04:00:00 +0000

Well, there are of course many reasons why one might lapse on posting from time to time, so I'm not going to bother listing any particular one. I most regret not having anything to add to the great stuff the guys at Give Me the Rock have been doing (see the links at right). Let's hope I can keep up next year. Anyway, I got some nice pics from the Blazers-Knicks game, where the Special Lady and I sat five rows behind the basket.

Without time to seriously devote to my basketball team this season, I spent a lot of the year in the bottom of the pack, and when Yao went down, I thought I was sunk. Well, some timely pickups and a Gerald Wallace for LaMarcus Aldridge trade later, I'm the fourth seed. I think I've got a shot to make the second round, but our top seed had a monster season.

Get up there, Manu!

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 17:24:00 +0000

From Knicks-Spurs

World Series and MNF

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 04:10:00 +0000

These are the things that may happen simultaneously at my local bar on Monday night. If the Rockies can win one damn game.

I've been reading lots of basketball info in hasty preparation for my keeper league. I must admit that I have ignored my NBA team, mainly because I have had lots of injury adversity across my important football leagues. The other thing is that everyone has draft prep up on the Web. And I'm not particularly sure I can offer anything radically different. In this fantasy commodity world, there are lots of people as smart and less smart than me getting paid lots of dough to say that Gerald Wallace is a high-risk, high-reward player. I still may take him with the 2.1 pick. Also, everyone has a "strategy" for any particular league. So, Give Me the Rock has all the requisite knowledge you need, and links to 82Games and Dropping Dimes strategies to boot. I have a few theories about H2H that probably differ from other folks, and I'll post a little about that after my draft. I'm also doing a Roto league for the first time on Yahoo, which should be fun. I need to recap that draft, because it's pretty funny. I think I may live blog from my local on Tuesday since we have 6 TVs.

Anyway, on to the picks.

GIANTS (London) (-9.5) over Miami – This line seems way high for a neutral field game, but Miami has absolutely zero offense right now. Seems like a good opposite pick.
JETS (-3) over Bills – Good for a push at at worst. If you have Thomas Jones, you really should be worried about his ability to lead you into the postseason .
*RAMS (+3) over Browns – Bulger and SJax are back. That's all we really need to know. When was the last time the Browns were a road favorite? Apparently 10-1-06. And 2002 before that.
Lions (+5) over BEARS – I really hate the Bears this year. Have from the beginning. I need to
check, but I think the time I picked them to cover I always felt queasy about it. The Bears always win this one, but I think this is the week.
*Colts (-6.5) over PANTHERS – The extra point on the spread isn't really troubling here because we're not talking 3-4 or 10-11 here. The Colts should easily win by more than a TD, even with Harrison out.
TITANS (-7.5) over Raiders – This is purely a defensive pick. As the Titans have no offense.
Eagles (-1) over VIKINGS – I have McNabb, and this is a must-win for me. Nuff Said.
BENGALS (+3.5) over Steelers – The road team always wins this game, thus I'm taking the home team. Because if the Bengals can't find the fire to win this game, it's time to rebuild.
Texans (+9.5) over CHARGERS – With all the distractions in SoCal, are they really gonna pile it on?
BUCS (-3.5) over Jags – The one-point movement towards the Jags makes this attractive.
*Saints (-2.5) over 49ERS Alex Smith may be healthy and that hasn't affected the line?
PATRIOTS (-16.5) over Redskins – I didn't believe last week, so I'm back.
Packers (+3) over BRONCOS – As the line moves drastically against the Packers, I should stay away, but let's hope for a shoot-out, as I'm starting Marshall and Stokely.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 45-51-7

Last Week's Best Bets: 0-0
Season: 6-6

Quickie Week 7

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 03:10:00 +0000

I'm off to Omaha in 6 hours for a wedding, but I'm still thinking fantasy. A few quick picks. Drew Brees. Heath Evans. Lance Moore. Brandon Marshall. I'm worried about : Ronnie Brown. Vincent Jackson. Chris Chambers. Falcons.

I will also be using my prodigious airplane time to work on my fantasy basketball strategy. More of that to come.

GIANTS (-9) over 49ers
BENGALS (-6) over JETS
Cardinals (+8.5) over REDSKINS
SAINTS (-9) over Falcons
Ravens (-3) over BILLS
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Vikings
DOLPHINS (+16.5) over Patriots
LIONS (-2.5) over Bucs
Titans (-1.5) over TEXANS
Chiefs (+2.5) over RAIDERS
EAGLES (-5) over Bears
Rams (+9) over SEAHAWKS
Steelers (-3.5) over BRONCOS
Colts (-3) over JAGUARS

Last Week: 3-9-1
Last Week: 7-7-0
Season: 38-44-7

Last Week's Best Bets: 1-2
Season: 6-6

Week Six Picks

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 12 Oct 2007 02:41:00 +0000

A bunch of dogs beat the spread, but there was no craziness like there was in Week Four. We lost yet more players to season-ending injuries, and Dallas took a crazy bounce and two 53-yard field goals to squeak by Buffalo. And thanks to Romo's six turnovers, the Dorkette beat me in our His-'n'-Her Fantasy League for the third straight time. Grrr.

The thumb is still slightly broken, so typing is kind of a pain.

*Eagles (-3) over JETS - I think the Birds have never lost to the the Jets, and I can't see that changing. Mr. Overrated is starting for me in the big money league, so I expect nothing less than three TDs. And if Pennington continues to stink, Giants Stadium may erupt into a verse of The Clemens Song by halftime.
Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS - This is the kind of game the Chiefs always won. Until herm Edwards arrived.
Texans (+6.5) over JAGUARS - The Jags are like a better Tennessee. They have a few playmakers, their defense is above average, and they win by the skin of their teeth. I'm not spotting them a touchdown just yet.
Dolphins (+4.5) over BROWNS - I love the opening line at 5.5, but I'll stick with the Phish here. We've got a completely unpredictable QB change and the league's best back (Wow! That's hard to write with a straight face.) against a very pedestrian team with a backup RB. Could be a field goal that wins this game either way.
BEARS (-5.5) over Vikings - Money's moving towards the Vikes as well. Neither team really scores on offense, but throw in some special teams scores for the Bears. No one will be watching this snoozefest.
*Rams (+9.5) over RAVENS - My Rams nearly upset Arizona, and these Ravens are susceptible to the long ball. On the offensive side, the Ravens are frankly putrid. I'll take the points.
BUCS (-3) over Titans - This looks like a push.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Redskins - That .5 point burned me last week, but I'll put my faith in a rebound from the Bear disaster.
*CARDINALS (-4) over Panthers - Vinny may start. Time to pick up that Zona defense.
COWBOYS (+5.5) over Patriots - The cheerleader squad had a big gulp on Monday, but since so much money is moving to the Patriots, I fee obliged to go the other way.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Raiders - LT finally hits paydirt. I can feel it.
Saints (+6.5) over SEAHAWKS - They can't lose every game, right? Plus I'm trying to trade for Brees.
FALCONS (+3) over Giants - This is turning into a joke, but why the hell not?

Last Week: 7-7-0
Season: 35-35-6

Last Week's Best Bets: 1-2
Season: 5-4

Week Five Picks

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 05 Oct 2007 21:27:00 +0000

Finally, I have a banner week, bringing me to a respectable .500 on the season. We've got tons of injuries, both to myself and the rest of the NFL, so really anything could happen this week, and it wouldn't surprise me. Lots of "stay away" games this week, and Best Bets are hard to come by.

GIANTS (-3.5) over JETS - Hey, they're both at home, so who's foolin' who. Inevitably, whichever way I go here, I'm going to lose, and with the line bumping up to 3.5 it takes away a likely push. But didn't Tynes miss a bunch of kicks recently? So, hopefully the Gints score a late TD to win by 4.
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers - Both of these stink right now, but coming off the Bye against a David Carr-led Panthers, the Saints just gotta win by 3 here.
*CHIEFS (+2) over Jaguars - This is another tough one, but the once metaphysically certitude of the AFC West went out the window, I gotta like the Chiefs to show some spunk here.
Lions (+3.5) over REDSKINS - Moss may be out and Portis looks 75%, so lets see Kitna do some damage in D.C.
Dolphins (+5) over TEXANS - Houston has no weapons. Let me repeat that: Houston has no weapons. And much maligned Ronnie Brown has a real possibility to tie Sweetness for a record 200 combined yards in 3 consecutive games.
Falcons (+8.5) over TITANS - Didn't I jump off this bandwagon weeks ago? Titans come off the bye, but Harrington is getting better and better.
STEELERS (-6) over Seahawks - Steelers likely lose Ward again, but are they really going to lose to the whiny Hawks in this Superbowl rematch?
PATRIOTS (-16.5) over Browns - Keep running it up, Belichick.
*Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS - Didn't AZ just beat Pittsburgh? Sure there's no Boldin, but the Rams are starting Frerotte and Leonard.
Bucs (+9.5) over COLTS - Manning is completely content to just win, and the Bucs just might hang in this thing before finally losing.
*Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS - This is a must must must win for San Diego. LT will throw a TD to himself if he has to to win this game.
49ERS (+3.5) over Ravens - You must be completely insane to put any money on this game. If Trent Dilfer is bad enough, but the Ravens are God awful. This seems like a slam dunk for Baltimore, so I'm going the other way.
PACKERS (-3) over Bears - That half-point of movement downwards is just what we like, but the Pack is at home and seem charmed so far - as long as they keep the ball in the air.
Cowboys (-10) over BILLS - This seems way too low. And Romo owes TO 3 TDs from last week.

Last Week: 9-5-0
Season: 28-28-6

Last Week's Best Bets: 0-0
Season: 4-2

Time to grab Selvin Young--Stat

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 05 Oct 2007 11:26:00 +0000

Note the typo:

Broncos running back Travis Henry sues NFL to withold drug test results

BY ANTHONY M. DESTEFANO 8:01 PM EDT, October 4, 2007

Denver Broncos running back Travis Henry is embroiled in a lawsuit to keep the NFL from using the results of a drug test to suspend him, according to court papers filed in Brooklyn federal court.

Better late than never

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Thu, 04 Oct 2007 20:07:00 +0000

So I had a little accident last weekend, which prevented me from getting Week 4 up in time. Now that I can type again, I'll have Week 5 up tomorrow. So quickly, Week 4, no commmentary.

Jets (-3.5) over BILLS
Eagles (-3) over GIANTS
DOLPHINS (-4) over Raiders
FALCONS (+3) over Texans
Ravens (-4) over BROWNS
LIONS (+3) over Bears
Packers (-1.5) over VIKINGS
COWBOYS (-13) over Rams
Bucs (+3) over PANTHERS
Seahawks (-2) over 49ERS
CARDINALS (+6) over Steelers
Chiefs (+11.5) over CHARGERS
COLTS (-9.5) over Broncos
BENGALS (+7) over Patriots

Last Week: 6-7-3
Season: 19-23-6

Last Week's Best Bets: 2-1
Season: 4-2

Week Three Picks

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 13:48:00 +0000

The Saint implosion is troubling, but more importantly, can Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson please score a touchdown? Of the consensus top-6 fantasy picks, it seems only Addai is performing like one.

Also, after what seems like two years of down production from wide receivers, scoring is way up. And my Andre Johnson pick was looking like gold up until he sprained his knee last week. Let's get back on the field healthy next week, buddy.

Dolphins (+3) over JETS - The fish stink, but the Jets have yet to show me anything positive this year. This used to be a great rivalry. Remember that Monday Night Double Overtime classic?
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants - This used to be a great rivalry, too. The least inept offense wins.
*Colts (-6) over TEXANS - No Andre means rookie Jacoby Jones is in the hot seat. Did I mention I picked up Indy's defense this week?
PACKERS (+5) over Chargers - Green Bay at home 2-0 against a shaky Phil Rivers. I see the Chargers winning by a field goal. Good game of the week contender.
*CHIEFS (-3) over Vikings- The Chiefs never lose at home, and LJ had better be in game shape by now.
EAGLES (-6) over Lions - My first instinct was to switch this pick around, so I'm leaving it alone.
PATRIOTS (-16.5) - I almost never give this many points, but Belicheater's like my girlfriend when it comes to football, they both love piling on the points.
49ers (+9) over STEELERS - Once the Steelers go up by 3, they'll just run the ball til the clock ticks off.
Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS - A good upset of the week candidate because the Ravens are atrocious and banged up.
Rams (+3.5) over BUCS - If they haven't solved the Orlando Pace problem by now, my Rams are done. Psst. Bulger: Throw the ball to Jackson in the flat when the 5-man rush comes barreling in.
BRONCOS (-3) over Jaguars - Two struggling offensive units with theoretically good rushing attacks collide in the battle of who wants to lose least.
Bengals (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS - Yes, Seattle always wins at home, but I can't think of a team more ready to dish out a pounding than the Bengals.
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns - Well, someone has to win.
*FALCONS (+3.5) over Panthers - At home in the dome against a team that was squashed by the Texans, and they're a dog?
Cowboys (+3) over BEARS - Let's see it, Romo.
SAINTS (-4) over Titans - They're marching in, and need a win.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 13-16-3

Last Week's Best Bets: 2-1
Season: 2-1

Big returns on risky investments

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 21:51:00 +0000

Most folks in my fantasy leagues will cop that to some degree that I am a waiver wire genius. I guard my higher waiver position like Tom Cruise smothers Katie Holmes, only using it to fill a desperate need, steal someone else's injury replacement, or grab a rookie call-up. In football especially, the waiver wire is like drilling for oil. It's tiring, dirty, and you're generally rewarded with heartbreak and despair. But once in a great while, you get a gusher.

I just lost Andre Johnson across the board this week with his knee injury, and it sent me into a bit of a panic because I'm already thin at receiver with Mark Clayton hurt (another guy I targeted often this season). Preseason Week 2, I thought I had drafted like a genius. Now, I feel like an idiot. By Week 6, I hope to feel somewhere in between.

But before you throw away any week as a loss because of a sub par receiving corps, take a look at your league's scoring system in regards to kick returns. If you get really lucky, you may just be able to weasel your way into a W.

Over the last two years, I've found that return guys like Dante Hall (and now Devin Hester), who also line up as a #3 or #4 receivers, can really help get you through a tough bye week situation or a desperation start.

In my big money league, Return Yards are 25 yards per point; 1 bonus point at 100 yards; 1 bonus point at 150 yards. Plus you get touchdowns. Plus, it's a point-per-reception.

Patrick Crayton should be the ultimate pickup for this role because Dallas has injuries to Terry Glenn and their number 1 punt returner. However, TO has been hoovering all the balls, and Crayton can't seem to do much except get himself hurt.

Right now on my waiver wire, Joshua Cribbs (Cle), with one catch, has outscored Demetrious Williams, Jacoby Jones, and Vincent Jackson—guys who may have been drafted in your league. Even Dante Hall has similar numbers. So if Devin Hester (Chi) is still out there, you might want to stash him on your bench, because he almost had 3 return TDs last Sunday.

There's one guy in particular, though, that just may be a temporary gold mine. Due to injuries, Glenn Holt (Cin) is now returning kicks and acting as the #3 receiver: the Chris Henry Memorial 40 oz position. Right now in my league, he's outscored Darrell Jackson, Hines Ward, and Santana Moss. He had 5 catches for 52 and TD last week on top of 177 return yards. Even if he only gets four returns in Seattle this Sunday, he could still post the same numbers as a receiver.

Now, I left him on the wire for Jason Avant (Phi) in this league, only because I think he's moving his way into McNabb favorite territory, but I've picked him up in another, and I'm starting him. So go, L'il Holt!

Week Two Picks

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 14 Sep 2007 14:21:00 +0000

And I also forgot to do the Best Bets last week, so I'll start 'em here.

As it stands on the year, I faltered early, but got every game or a push starting at 4pm. So I'm on a roll. Totals for 2007: 6-8-2
Stat of the week: Home team vs. the spread to date 9-6-1. Hmm. Makes those underdog picks seem a little better.

Best Bests = *

* Packers (pick) over GIANTS - My other sleeper pick. Go Pack Go!
Jets (+10) over RAVENS - This seems really high for two teams with serious QB issues. Vegas must be expecting 2 defensive TDs from Baltimore. I don't see the Jets losing that big.
Colts (-7) over TITANS - You gotta take the Colts until they lose one.
Bengals (-6.5) over BROWNS - Ugh. All these home upsets are bothering me again.
RAMS (-3) over 49ers - My Rams lose Orlando Pace for the 2nd straight season. Not good for you Steven Jackson owners.
Falcons (+10) over JAGUARS - This is a pride bet. The Falcons need to at least cover to reward my sleeper pick. Plus the way the Titans ran all over the Jags, it's time to let Jurious Norwood loose.
STEELERS (-9.5) over Bills - Are Santonio Holmes and Big Ben for real? We're about to find out.
* Saints (-3.5) over BUCS - This seems way too low to me.
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Texans - This is another scary take the home team bet. I wouldn't touch this action, except maybe in a teaser.
LIONS (-3) over Vikings - The Vikings had no offense at home last week, and this is a push?
* Cowboys (-3.5) over DOLPHINS - This seems low as well.
Seahawks (-3) over CARDINALS - If I hadn't watched last Monday's game, I'd be all over the Cards. This is already a must win for them.
Chiefs (+12) over BEARS - This very well could be one of those 9-6 snoozefests, a blowout, or a shocking upset. As much as I was disappointed with the Chiefs last week, I don't trust Benson and Grossman one iota. Plus I've got LJ, and I need a respectable game out of him.
BRONCOS (-10) over Raiders - I thought about going the other way here and then laughed.
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Chargers - Should be a great game. The Patriots can be scored upon, so let's hope the line pans out.
EAGLES (-6.5) over Redskins - Eagles come home after a bad road loss, and the Redskins look like a mess. Let's hope for a shootout.

Season Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 22:13:00 +0000

These are late, but as you will see, I didn't retro anything in light of injuries or results from Week 1. Basically, Simmons over there at ESPN had the exact same ideas that I had. All my sleepers were publicized in his fantasy preview, and I totally bought into the Falcons with Petrino at the helm. But all these picks had to be made for my "Season Pool," and were emailed prior to last Thursday's kickoff.

*= wildcard
AFC
East
Patriots 12-4
Jets 7-9
Bills 6-10
Dolphins 4-12

North
Bengals 11-5
Ravens 10-6*
Steelers 9-7
Browns 5-11

South
Colts 12-4
Jaguars 10-6
Titans 7-9
Texans 6-10

West
Chargers 11-5
Broncos 10-6 *
Chiefs 7-9
Raiders 6-10

NFC
East
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6*
Giants 7-9
Redskins 7-9

North
Packers 10-6
Bears 9-7
Lions 7-9
Vikings 4-12

South
Saints 12-4
Falcons 9-7*
Panthers 6-10
Bucs 6-10

West
Seahawks 9-7
Rams 9-7
Cardinals 5-11
49ers 4-12

AFC Championship: Patriots defeat Chargers
NFC Championship: Cowboys defeat Saints

Superbowl: Cowboys defeat Patriots 24-21

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Steven Jackson
Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman
Coach of the Year: Bobby Petrino
Comeback Player of the Year: Joey Harrington
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson

At least my rookie pick looks good.

Week One Results

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 21:27:00 +0000

Wow, we had some really awful games this week, and a couple of last minute miracles. And I was particularly bad early, too, but I rallied to get all the late Sunday and Monday games.

2007 totals: 6-8-2

Week One Picks

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 12:02:00 +0000

Yeah, I missed Thursday's game, so to be fair, we'll call it a loss.

NO over Indy - Although I never would have picked it that way.

Broncos (-3) over BILLS
Chiefs (+3) over TEXANS (two roads wins already? not a good start)
Steelers (-4.5) over BROWNS (ok, this is getting ridiculous)
REDSKINS (-3) over Dolphins (ahh, finally, I pick a home team)
Eagles (-3) over PACKERS (crap)
JAGUARS (-6.5) over Titans
JETS (+6.5) over Patriots
Falcons (+3) over VIKINGS (Simmons stole my sleepers, now he steals my sleeper team)
RAMS (-1) over Panthers
CHARGERS (-6) over Bears
Lions (+2) over RAIDERS
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Bucs
COWBOYS (-6) over Giants
BENGALS (-2.5) over Ravens
Cardinals (+3) over 49ers

How in the world did this happen?

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 13:34:00 +0000

Final Day of NBA 2006-207

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Wed, 18 Apr 2007 13:19:00 +0000

And I'm trying not to jinx my chances of a second championship by revealing some good fortune that's come my way this past week. Needless to say, I do have a lead going into the final games tonight, and I hope to have a celebratory post with the craziest roster moves you have ever seen tomorrow.

Then, on to fixing my woeful baseball team.

By the skin of my teeth

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 11:13:00 +0000

Well, my instincts were right about all my pickups, but Yao and T-Mac actually playing nearly threw off my whole strategy. Down by 1 DREB, 12 3s and 2 BLKs, I was sitting in front of the computer at 8:58 mulling over my options: 1) Gamble that Yao and T-Mac play and if they do I will win boards and probably blocks without any other players 2) Bench them and play Bibby, Luther Head, and Justin Williams and roll the dice against Rafer Alston's numbers for my opponent 3) play all of them as insurance.

Which what I did. Except that I nearly had a heart attack when I was suddenly only 7 TOs and 9 PFs ahead in the first half. I basically was on the verge of taking REBs and BLKs and giving up TOs and PFs and losing. Rafer Alston didn't help out my cause with a very modest 1 TO and 1 PF performance. So my insurance was to somehow shoot 12 3s between these guys to knock a point off the tally with a tie, which I did. Until Alston hit his single 3 late in the game. Needless to say, it was a stressful heartbreaking evening, but my boys tightened up on the TOs, gave up PFs and gave me a 6-5 win. Now, the waiver wire hunting really begins...

Final stand

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 10:52:00 +0000

Without AK-47 or Chandler, I finally gave up the lead in blocks and D boards. Now, going into the final day, I need to win back D Boards, Blocks or 3s to make the finals. And if I do, I'm dead in the water.I managed a net -13 in D boards, -9 in 3s and -12 in blocks yesterday. Not good. So I dropped Gadzuric, Chandler, AK-47, and Jason Hart for Shelden Williams, Justin Williams, Luther Head, and Tyrus Thomas (who's iffy with the flu). If you're playing any of these guys, your team is trouble, too. The opponent has LBJ, Rafer Alston, Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince going today, so I'm loading up on cheap boards and blocks, then if by a miracle T-Mac and/or Yao play (I'll give that a .5% chance), I can take boards and/or blocks hopefully without surrendering TOs, or take both and give up TOs.

Any way you slice it, this has been a miserable finish to a fairly impressive managerial effort on my part. Considering injuries on a similarly massive scale completely derailed my baseball team last season, I'm getting pretty sick of this. Now, as a poker player, I understand that no one wants to hear a bad beat story. Tough.

Mother, I can feel the soil falling over my head

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Sat, 07 Apr 2007 11:43:00 +0000

Sorry for getting all Morrissey, but there's bad luck and then there's Biblical luck. Having developed serious injuries to five starters this week, Friday followed up with another kick in the belly as Yao sat due to back spasms (DNP), AK-47 left the game after 14 minutes with a sprained thumb and Mike Bibby spent 28 minutes on the bench going 0-4 from the field. Here's the tally.

While I had a great day from behind the arc, tieing in treys, due to six games lost this week from Yao, Chandler and Jefferson, my 30 D rebound advantage has shrunk to 10 in two days. Right now, I'm going to have to win TOs or 3s—or both—to have any chance of making the finals.

Realistically, I'm going to count T-Mac and Yao out for the season as the Rockets currently can't improve or worsen their playoff position. New Orleans needs Chandler, and they need him in the next two games against the Nuggets and the Clippers, who are both ahead of them in the playoff race. If Chandler doesn't play tonight, they might as well shut him down and give up.

So late night it comes down to possibly dropping AK, Chandler, Granger and Okur for Sunday substitutions. At best, if I make the finals, at least I'm in the money, but if I don't, then I'm going to have a hard time competing to break even by winning third place.

In slightly better news, Cub Rich Hill pitched 1-hit ball over 7 innings yesterday to earn my squad it's first pitching W of the season. Unfortunately, my team batting average has dipped below .22o, which is pretty amazing considering I have Chipper and Andruw Jones, Travis Hafner, and Ryan Howard.

Thank God there's no crying in fantasy sports because I'd be needing a hanky right now.

Hanging in there

noreply@blogger.com (A. Wisniewski) — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 12:14:00 +0000

Day 4 of the playoffs, and I've already had to start mortgaging the future.

I thought long and hard about next season before coming to the realization that I'm stuck with T-Mac for another year. Since he's on the Can't-Cut list, Al Jefferson had to go to make room for...gulp...Dan Gadzuric. Oh, the indignity. So much for starting next year with two premier big men.

I'm going to hold Chandler through the weekend and hopefully into the finals, then it's rotating waiver wire the rest of the way.

Nice to see Andy Pettitte get rocked yesterday, which means my pitching officially stinks, as Tony Kornheiser would say.