Learn How To Trade With sdh

nice read....

2013-04-14T19:15:00.001-05:00

The Fundamentals Don't Matter Anymore

Apr 14 2013, 14:13 | 22 comments | includes: DIA, EUSA, ITOT, IVV, IWV, IYY, SPY, VOO, VTHR, VTI

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

What a difference a week makes! Last Friday morning, on April 5, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a horrible payroll employment number that was well below consensus expectations. The S&P 500 (SPY) tumbled more than 20 points at the opening bell in reaction to the news. That panic began to abate at approximately 9:35 am, within five minutes of trading, when the low for the day was established at 1539.50. Five minutes of investor disdain for the single most important piece of economic data that is reported each month, and then it was off to the races. For the remainder of that day, and in the four trading days that followed, the S&P 500 climbed mechanically, without interruption, to new all-time highs. This was a relentless surge of more than 50 points from the Friday morning low for the S&P 500 in just one week. Surely, there must have been some encouraging news in the days that followed April 5 to extinguish the fear that plagued markets for that fleeting five-minute period.

(click to enlarge)

126 people received this article by email alert
Add your email to get alerts on IWV too:

Get email alerts on IWV »

On Monday we learned that machine tool orders in the US declined 11.9% during the first two months of 2013 when compared to the first two months of 2012. There was nothing to celebrate in this report, but still the market worked its way higher.

On Tuesday the Commerce Department reported that wholesale inventories declined in February by the largest amount in 18 months, when the consensus had expected a gain of .5%. It also reduced its original estimate for January from an increase of 1.2% to just .8%. This was all the more shocking because it was the lack of inventory building that depressed economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year. The consensus was expecting a sharp bounce back, but it didn't happen. This is not good news for those expecting real economic growth of 3% in the first quarter. The disappointment didn't end there.

Also on Tuesday the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)reported that its index of small business optimism declined 1.3 points to 89.5, which was below the consensus expectation of no change. This index remains below the troughs it reached during the 1991-1992 and 2001-2002 recessions. The NFIB's chief economist, Bill Dunkelberg, states in the report-

"For the sector that produces half the private GDP and employs half the private sector workforce - the fact that they are not growing, not hiring, not borrowing and not expanding like they should be, is evidence enough that uncertainty is slowing the economy. Virtually no owners think the current period is a good time to expand, because they simply don't know what the future holds. So why invest?"

(click to enlarge)

Regardless, the stock market continued to grind higher.

On Wednesday we received the minutes from the Fed's most recent policy-setting meeting, shortly after a few select banks and members of Congress received them. The minutes revealed that the majority of policymakers were leaning towards tapering off the asset purchase program (QE) by mid-year, before concluding the program by year-end. This should have been construed as a negative in the very short term, considering the lack of progress in the economy to date, but not last week. Commentators were temporarily baffled by the market's dismissal of the possibility that QE might end, until they reasoned that since these comments were made during a meeting that occurred prior to the horrible jobs number, QE would likely not be tapered off mid-year, or conclude at year-end, but instead continue. Therefore, this was a positive. I had to read the minutes and the commentary more than once in order to grasp this twisted logic. I was under what now appears to be the misguided impression that the purpose of QE was to improve the economic fundamentals, in job creation and economic growth, but now the consensus seems to prefer that the economy sputter, so that QE will continue indefinitely. This is reckless, drug-induced insanity. It is like a heavily medicated patient that wants to remain bed-ridden so that the steady dosage of morphine that has now become an addiction will continue. Of course, the S&P 500 surged to new all-time highs.

On Thursday we learned that US chain-store sales rose 1.6% in March on a year-over-year basis, below expectations of 1.8%, and down from the 2.9% increase one year ago. This disappointment came despite the benefit of Easter falling on March 31 this year, as opposed to April 8 last year. The stock market looked the other way, once again, with the S&P 500 climbing to new highs.

A double barrel of discouraging economic data points came yesterday with an unexpected decline in retail sales for March, the second decline in the past three months, and the University of Michigan's consumer-confidence gauge falling to a nine-month low. Headline retail sales fell .4%, while the core figure that excludes autos, gasoline and building materials fell .2%. It is the core figure that aligns most closely with the rate of growth in consumer spending used to calculate GDP. Core retail sales were also revised lower for January and February. These reports for retail sales and consumer confidence were well below consensus expectations. They also make it very unlikely, once again, that Wall Street strategists' recently upward-revised estimates for first-quarter real GDP to 3% will materialize.

During five consecutive days of dismal economic news, the stock market muscled its way higher. The fundamentals really don't seem to matter anymore. As I write this article, the modest selling pressure that ensued at the open today, not seen since last Friday's open, is once again giving way to a steady grind higher. Watching stock prices move up against the current of deteriorating economic fundamentals is what we see at the early stages of an economic recovery, as we did in 2009, when the market was serving as a discounting mechanism for good things to come. We do not see this type of activity at the latter stages of an expansion, and certainly not when the fundamentals are deteriorating, at least until now. This is clearly the byproduct of quantitative easing (QE). Some investors might be comforted by this type of price action, but I am not. It is not that I don't want to see the stock market appreciate, but rather that I want to see it appreciate on a foundation of strengthening economic fundamentals. Instead, the fundamentals are deteriorating. Therefore, I am concerned that we are in store for a third chapter of this boom-bust cycle that only those who were trading and investing during the last two, in the 1990s and 2000s, can appreciate. The booms take different shapes and are fueled in different ways, but all share the characteristics of loose credit, leverage and speculation. Adding additional risk to the current dislocation between the market and the economy is the broken structure of our financial markets--something that I was promised would be addressed by President Obama in 2009.

I have been watching the stock market trade, day-in and day-out, for more than 20 years. When you stare at a screen for that long and that often, you can tell when something is amiss. I don't know what or whose invisible hand is involved in these markets, but there is one, and a very big one at that. I'm sure that other traders and frequent investors will agree. It is hard to dismiss the sharp moves that occur in the benchmark indices within seconds, or the oddly timed inflection points that are defined at exactly 10:30am or 3:00pm every day, regardless of the news flow. It is exhausting to place limit orders for securities that show a sizable bid or ask, which miraculously vanishes the second you hit the send button. There is clearly something very different now in how the markets operate, and it is getting worse with each passing month, quarter and year. I know that the contributing factors are high-frequency trading (HFT), the influence of S&P futures on the cash market and the gradual decline in liquidity we have seen on the for-profit exchanges. In my view the individual investor, as well as many institutional investors, have been completely marginalized. It is no longer the public's market. The significance of this phenomenon is that I believe it has fed the latter stages of this bull market run in the same way no-doc loans and securitization fed the appreciation in the housing stock-unscrupulously. I plan to write a great deal more about this phenomenon in the months to come as I do more research.

What is fueling the steady surge in stock prices, as we saw this past week? It is certainly not the great rotation out of bonds and into stocks. The fund flows into domestic equity mutual funds, after having turned positive in January and February, slowed to a trickle before turning negative again in March, according to ICI data. The percentage of bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey fell to a low of just 19.3% last week, which is a level not seen since the bear market low reading of 18.9% on March 3, 2009. What is going on? It seems pretty clear that the public is investing as Peter Lynch so famously used to, living in the real world, while Wall Street and Washington are living in a virtual one. The virtual world is clearly contrived by QE. When will these worlds collide?

Tom Lee, JP Morgan's chief market strategist, stated on Friday that he is bullish again, despite the weakening economic data, because the stock market has just "looked through" it. This is an awfully simple-minded statement coming from a chief market strategist, proving how dislocated he, along with the stock market, is from the real economy. Does this mean that Mr. Lee would have been bearish in early 2009, despite the early indications of improving economic fundamentals, because stock prices were still declining, or in other words, looking through it?

Chairman Bernanke is clearly living in the virtual world, myopically focused on the financial markets and operating under the illusion that the rubber his quantitative easing provides will soon hit the road to economic growth and job creation, but his theory has now proven to be based on a false premise. The wealth effect he is instigating is having no affect on wages and without an increase in wages, the wealth effect withers rapidly. Financial market wealth does not lead to an increase in the production of goods and services or a rise in incomes, especially when wealth is as concentrated in the US as it is today. It is a byproduct of an increase in the production of goods and services-or economic growth, as is a rise in incomes. Therefore, in my opinion, Chairman Bernanke is blowing bubble number three, and if we continue to see more weeks of economic distress as we did last week, that bubble will either burst or slowly deflate.

I am not forecasting a repeat of the financial crisis, although it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen. Nothing has changed since 2009 to prevent one from happening again. I have been forecasting continued anemic growth with the high probability of a consumer-led recession, similar to what occurred in the 2001-2 timeframe. I can't be bullish on the overall stock market in this environment, unless my investment thesis is simply to follow the speculative investment flow that is fueled by QE. This isn't an investment strategy, but a game of musical chairs, for when the consensus concludes that the QE fuel tank is nearing empty, there will undoubtedly be abrupt and very negative consequences for financial assets. The alternative is that QE continues indefinitely, because the Fed fears the consequences for financial assets should the program end. The deterioration in economic fundamentals then will become so overwhelming that even the few living and benefiting from this virtual world can no longer deny the reality on the ground.

They say that a picture is worth a thousand words--especially one that isn't polluted with seasonal adjustments and quarterly or annual revisions. I think the picture below best exemplifies both the strength of the US economy today and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus on economic growth and job creation. It's a simple chart of the number of miles driven in the US. It has stagnated for four years. I would love to see all those bullish Wall Street strategists and economic pundits that see accelerating rates of growth on the horizon explain the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

Additional disclosure: Lawrence Fuller is the Managing Director of Fuller Asset Management, a Registered Investment Adviser. This post is for informational purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Clients of Fuller Asset Management may hold positions in the securities mentioned in this article. Lawrence Fuller makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made by him or Fuller Asset Management. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by will be met. Information or opinions expressed may change without notice, and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.

2013-04-14T16:36:00.001-05:00

MOVERS & SHAKERS Archives | Email alerts

April 12, 2013, 5:44 p.m. EDT

Friday’s movers: J.C. Penney heads south

Stories You Might Like

2 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By Sue Chang and Saumya Vaishampayan, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — J.P. Penney Co. was stuck in negative territory on Friday following reports it is seeking to secure funds to shore up its cash position. News of a favorable ruling in its legal dispute with Macy’s Inc. failed to prop up the stock.

Top Tickers Trending

$JCP: J.C. Penney JCP -1.62% shares shed almost 2% to finish at $14.62. The beleaguered retailer reportedly has retained Blackstone Group LP for advice as it seeks to raise about $ 1 billion in cash.

A judge on Friday ruled that Penney can sell non-branded Martha Stewart products for now, according to reports. Macy’s Inc. M +0.27% sued the department store chain and Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. MSO +1.63% after Penney announced plans to open in-store Martha Stewart shops. Shares of Macy’s are fractionally higher.

$AAPL: Apple AAPL -1.04% remained under pressure after analysts at RBC Capital Markets lowered the stock’s price target to $550 from $600 on waning appetite for the company’s devices.

Reuters

Analysts at RBC lower Apple’s price target.

“We are lowering estimates on AAPL as our checks suggest AAPL saw weaker demand in March coupled with mix headwinds. Furthermore, June-quarter guide could disappoint as iPhone sales may be lower than expected (product transitions),” said Amit Daryanani in a report.

On the positive side, Apple could update its capital allocation policy and launch iOS7, iPhone 5s, a low-end iPhone and refreshed iPads soon, said Daryanani.

Apple shares closed down 1% at $429.80.

$BBRY: BlackBerry BBRY +0.66% recovered after the Canadian company said it is asking the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as well as the Ontario Securities Commission to review a report claiming high rates of returns for its Z10.

The statement is in response to a Detwiler Fenton report on Thursday that returns are outpacing sales in some cases.

BlackBerry late Thursday characterized the unflattering report as false in a statement emailed to MarketWatch.

“Our data shows that return rates for BlackBerry Z10 devices both in the U.S. and on a global basis are in line with or better than our expectations and are consistent with return rates for other premium smartphones in the market today,” said Rebecca Freiburger, BlackBerry’s corporate communications manager.

Click to Play

Winners and losers

Perhaps it wasn't the best sort of attention, but J.C. Penney and KPMG dominated headlines this week. David Benoit looks at the week in Winners and Losers.

Detwiler Fenton, in turn, said it isstanding behind its report and that it was “confident in our research methodology and we welcome any regulatory scrutiny.”

Blackberry shares finished at $13.64, up 0.7%.

$LNKD: LinkedIn Corp. LNKD +2.89%shares fell more than 1% after it agreed to buy Pulse, a news reader and mobile-content company, on Thursday in a deal valued at $90 million. Shares closed at $185.39, up 3%.

$JPM: Bank shares were in focus as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.61% and Wells Fargo & Co. WFC -0.80% kicked off bank earnings. J.P. Morgan shares lost 0.6% to $49.01 after the company reported a 33% rise in first-quarter net income, beating estimates. Wells Fargo shares fell 0.8% to $37.21 as it also beat Wall Street estimates, but reported a drop in income from mortgage banking.

Gainers

NetApp Inc. NTAP +5.93% shares rallied 6% to $35.46 although it wasn’t immediately clear what triggered the surge. The stock is up 7% over the past three months.

Rally Software Development Corp. RALY +27.21% jumped 27% to $17.81 on its debut in the market. The cloud-based software applications company priced its initial public offering at $14, above the expected range of $11-$13. The company sold 6 million shares in the offering.

Decliners

Harris Corp. HRS -5.37% shares declined 5% to $44.06, reducing earlier losses. The maker of wireless network transmission equipment said late Thursday that its quarterly earnings are likely to be weaker than expected on delays stemming from U.S. budget uncertainties. Harris now expects to report third-quarter adjusted earning of $1.12 a share, compared with $1.26 a share forecast by Wall Street.

Hudson City Bancorp Inc. HCBK -5.47% shares slid 5% to $8.29. Hudson City, which is merging with M&T Bank Corp. MTB -4.46% , said it needs additional time to complete the deal after the Federal Reserve raised concerns about M&T’s anti-money-laundering compliance program. “M&T has already commenced a major initiative, including the hiring of an outside consulting firm, intended to fully address the Federal Reserve’s concerns,” the banks said in a joint statement.

U.S.-listed shares of Infosys Ltd. ADR INFY -20.68% plunged 21% to $43.10. The Indian software company reported lower-than-expected revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter as the firm continues to struggle to meet its growth expectations. The Infosys miss dragged down shares of competitor Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp., CTSH -2.70% which fell 3% to $75.56.

Newmont Mining Corp. NEM -5.90% shares shed 6% to $36.37. Deutsche Bank, which rates the gold producer’s stock at hold, on Thursday cut its price target to $40 from $47.

Follow Sue Chang on Twitter at @SueChangMW and Saumya Vaishampayan @saumvaish.

2013-04-14T14:11:00.001-05:00

will post charts and news soon

2013-04-14T14:10:00.002-05:00

might try posting here again......

2012-11-25T20:48:00.001-06:00

MOVERS & SHAKERS Archives | Email alerts

Nov. 23, 2012, 2:12 p.m. EST

Friday’s biggest gaining and declining stocks

Research In Motion, Gap and Wal-Mart tickers trending

Stories You Might Like

0 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By Polya Lesova and Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Here are some of Friday’s most notable stock moves.

Gainers

Dell Inc. DELL +5.41% shares rose 5.4% as the computer maker joined a broad rally in the technology sector. Read: H-P, Dell lead strong tech gains.

MAP Pharmaceuticals Inc. MAPP +20.28% shares surged more than 20% following positive regulatory news regarding its new migraine drug.

Research In Motion Ltd. RIMM +13.65% CA:RIM -3.25% shares rallied nearly 14%. Investors are getting optimistic about the BlackBerry 10 smartphone. RIM’s shares had surged on Thursday in Toronto following a bullish research report from National Bank. Read: RIM gets big bounce — and it’s still cheap.

Click to Play

Beating Black Friday: Deals, gifts

WSJ Off Duty has 10 hot Cyber Monday food deals you can score from the safety of your couch. Plus, a look at gifts for the super-rich, from luxury cars to high-end speakers.

Decliners

KIT Digital Inc. KITD -64.25% shares plunged more than 64%. On Nov. 21, the company said that due to errors and irregularities, it was restating financial statements going back to 2009, and canceled its stockholders meeting.

Top tickers trending

RIMM: Nils1975: It’s National Bank’s Kris Thompson, who caused $RIMM biggest jump since ‘09 btw. http://t.co/AtJJtnDC --> he’ll be one to follow from now on

ericjackson: “ @Dasan : Yes, I’m long $RIMM and @ericjackson was quoted in Bloomberg story today admitting he bought some recently” true

protradermike: $RIMM huge short squeeze and margin calls tomorrow - would hate to be short - buying huge in the morning

WMT: On the biggest shopping day of the year, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT +1.90% was drawing plenty of chatter. Investors were also discussing an investigation into its India operations. Shares of Wal-Mart rose 1.9%. Read: Bharti Walmart suspends staff in antibribery probe

retail_guru: India investigation of Wal-Mart reflects realities of doing business but also $WMT need to diversify quickly into growth in emerging markets

BrianSozzi: Wal-Mart doing a better marketing job than Target on its Facebook page. More updates. More deals shared. $WMT $TGT #BlackFriday

GPS: Another retailer, Gap Inc. GPS +1.00% , ,was also drawing attention.

Reuters

StockTwits: Gap, TJX TJX +1.04% and Coach COH +2.37% to deliver strong sales during holiday seasonhttp://stks.co/iFdm via @Sverrisson_S $GPS $TJX & $COH

The_Analyst: I love that $GPS is 60% off + additional 20% off. Things must be going so well for the main brand (that was yesterday, not black friday)

TraceyRyniec: Plenty of shoppers in the Gap in union square. Not home with their families. $GPS

2012-11-25T20:47:00.001-06:00

WASHINGTON CALENDAR Archives | Email alerts

Nov. 23, 2012, 3:00 p.m. EST

Washington events for Nov. 26 - 30

Stories You Might Like

0 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By MarketWatch

Monday, Nov. 26

Senate back in session.

Tuesday, Nov. 27

House back in session.

8:30 a.m.: Durable goods order for October, released by the Commerce Department.

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller home price index for September, released by Case-Schiller.

ECONOMY AND POLITICS | Follow @MKTWEconomics
• Complete coverage of fiscal cliff crisis
• Bernanke: Cut a deal to avoid fiscal cliff
• Weekly jobless claims drop by a sharp 41,000
• Modest growth seen through early 2013
• Consumer senitment edges up in November
• Housing starts highest in more than 4 years

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence index for November, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: FHFA home price index for September, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Wednesday, Nov. 28

10 a.m.: New home sales for October, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on how to combat health care waste and fraud, at the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on Health.

2 p.m.: Beige Book on regional economic conditions, released by the Federal Reserve Board.

Thursday, Nov. 29

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claim, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Pending home sales for October, released by the National Association of Realtors.

10 a.m.: Hearing to examine the impact on banks of new Basel III capital standards, at a joint hearing of the House Financial Services subcommittees on Insurance, Housing and Community Opportunity, and Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit.

2 p.m.: Hearing on the future of money, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology.

Friday, Nov. 30

8:30 a.m.: Personal income and consumer spending for October, released by the Labor Department.

9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI on business activity in the Chicago region for November, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

2012-11-25T20:46:00.003-06:00

Stocks to watch Monday: Amazon, eBay

Stories You Might Like

0 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — As attention shifts away from Black Friday expect active trading in stocks seen to benefit from so-called Cyber Monday sales.

Reuters

Amazon.com is expected to see active trade Monday as investors focus on online holiday sales.

Shares of Amazon.com Inc.AMZN +0.78% , the world’s largest online retailer, are expected to see activity Monday as more online sales come into play for the holiday shopping season.

The stock, which is trading about 9% off its all-time high of $264.11 reached in September, has picked up momentum in November and gained 6.5% this past week to close at $239.88 as it and other retailers like Best Buy Inc. BBY +1.12% kicked off Thanksgiving sales online.Read more about Black Friday and retailers.

EBay Inc. EBAY +0.78% shares, which rose 3.7% on the week, are also in focus as some look to flip hard-to-get holiday gift items and bargains purchased at Black Friday sales.

Groupon Inc. GRPN +1.80% shares will test whether they can hold onto newfound gains, having jumped nearly 33% in the past week after hedge fund Tiger Global disclosed acquiring a 9.9% stake in the daily-deals company.

As the holiday shopping season continues, other retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc.WMT +1.90% , Target Corp. TGT +1.19% , J.C. Penney Co. JCP +0.23% , and Macy’s Inc.M +1.76% will see if they can hold onto their strong stock gains from the past week.

Wallace Witkowski is a MarketWatch news editor in San Francisco. Follow him on Twitter @wmwitkowski.

2012-11-25T20:46:00.001-06:00

Nov. 24, 2012, 2:43 p.m. EST

Thanksgiving Day online sales up 17.4%: IBM report

Stories You Might Like

4 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By MarketWatch

U.S. online retail sales rose 17.4% on Thanksgiving Day, according an analysis by International Business Machines Corp. IBM +1.68% .

That was followed by a 20.7% increase in online Black Friday sales.

Mobile shopping jumped, with 24% of consumers using a mobile device to visit a retailer's site, up from 14.3% last year. Apple Inc.'s AAPL +1.74% iPad tablet generated more traffic than other mobile devices, with almost 10% of online shopping. The iPhone followed with 8.7%.

Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

2012-11-25T20:44:00.001-06:00

Record count of holiday-weekend shoppers

National Retail Federation says fiscal cliff could impact retail sales

Stories You Might Like

63 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

Andria Cheng/MarketWatch

Macy's shoppers line up for the Black Friday opening in New York City.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A record 247 million Americans shopped on foot and online during the four-day holiday weekend, up 9% from the same period last year, when 226 million made holiday purchases, the National Retail Federation said Sunday.

A total of 89 million Americans shopped online and in brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday, up from 86 million in 2011, according to the survey conducted by BIGinsight for the NRF.

More than 35 million Americans visited retail stores and websites Thursday, up from 29 million last year, the survey found, with the average holiday shopper spending $423 this weekend versus $398 last year, a rise of 6%.

“Whole families are going out Thanksgiving night,” Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the trade group, told a media briefing Sunday afternoon, calling it a continuation of a trend seen in recent years.

Andria Cheng/MarketWatchEnlarge Image

Black Friday at Aéropostale in New York City.

Big box stores including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT +1.90% and Target Corp.TGT +1.19% were among those open on Thanksgiving night, attracting “some of the spending that’s usually meant for Friday,” according to ShopperTrack, which tracks retail foot traffic

Black Friday weekend includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projected spending for Sunday, with the estimates including individuals shopping on multiple days, so one consumer would be counted four times if they shopped on each day of Black Friday weekend, the NRF said.

The NRF estimates 139 million individuals, or unique shoppers, bought or browsed during the weekend, below the 147 million projected but up from 131 million unique shoppers last year.

Nearly a third of shoppers, or 32.6%, purchased gift cards during the weekend, up almost 10 percentage points from the 23.1% who bought gift cards during the same period in 2011.

Beyond being at the top of many holiday wish lists, the increased popularity of gift cards also is partly due to merchant incentives such as discounted bundle gift card packs. and the perception of the cards as being “still a practical gift in an uncertain economy,” said Pam Goodfellow, consumer insights director at BIGinsight,

Click to Play

Black Friday stokes holiday hopes

Early indications are giving retailers such as Macy's higher hopes for the 2012 holiday season. MarketWatch’s Andria Cheng reports.

Just how well U.S. retailers ultimately fare this holiday season could come down to whether politicians reach a deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, or the automatic spending cuts and tax hikes slated to begin in January.

“Unlike things that happen in China or Europe that are outside our control, this is certainly something that could have a very tangible effect on how the rest of our season might go,” Shay said.

“If the administration and Congress can come to some sort of deal in the next couple of weeks, I think that would send a very positive signal to retailers and consumers,” he added.

The NRF expects nearly 123 million consumers to shop online on what is now known as “Cyber Monday.”

Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.

2012-11-20T09:53:00.001-06:00

AAPL stopped out even....

2012-11-20T09:40:00.002-06:00

I see I got stopped out of the AAPL trade at 7.60 earlier....

Re-entered at 7.70

2012-11-20T09:33:00.001-06:00

AAPL Dec 2012 600.000 call (AAPL121222C00600000)

-OPR

8.05 0.55(6.40%) 10:16AM EST

Add to Portfolio

Prev Close:	8.60
Open:	9.95
Bid:	8.05
Ask:	8.15
Strike:	600.00
Expire Date:	21-Dec-12

Day's Range:	7.05 - 10.10
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	3,309
Open Interest:	16,328

Compare Brokers

Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.

2012-11-19T22:02:00.001-06:00

Gyrodyne Declares $38.30 Per Share Special Dividend

Press Release: Gyrodyne Company of America, Inc. – 4 hours ago

RELATED QUOTES

Symbol	Price	Change
GYRO	107.82	0.82

ST. JAMES, N.Y., Nov. 19, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Gyrodyne Company of America, Inc. (GYRO) announced today that its Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend in the amount of $56,786,644, or $38.30 per share. The dividend is payable on December 14, 2012 to stockholders of record as of December 1, 2012. The special dividend represents over 90% of the Company's REIT taxable income earned through September 30, 2012. REITs are required annually to distribute to shareholders at least 90% of their REIT taxable income in order to preserve their REIT status under the Internal Revenue Code.

In July 2012, the Company received $167,530,657 from the State of New York in payment of the judgments in the Company's favor in the Company's condemnation litigation with the State, of which $98,685,000 is deferred for income tax purposes and $68,845,657 is considered REIT taxable income in the current year. As a result, the Board determined that it was in the best interests of shareholders to distribute $56,786,644 in the form of a cash dividend. The declaration of the dividend also requires a cash payment to participants of the Company's Incentive Compensation Plan in the aggregate amount of $4,213,000 to be allocated and paid to Plan participants in accordance with Plan rules.

In accordance with Section 1033 of the Internal Revenue Code, the Company has deferred recognition of the $98,685,000 gain on the condemnation of its real property for income tax purposes. The Company previously applied for and received an additional approved Internal Revenue Service extension of time to replace the condemned property with like-kind property by April 30, 2014. If the Company replaces the condemned property with like-kind property by April 30, 2014 (or such extended period approved by the IRS at its discretion), recognition of the gain is deferred until the newly acquired property is disposed of.

Paul Lamb, Chairman of the Board of Gyrodyne, said, "Today's dividend declaration marks an important milestone in Gyrodyne's strategic plan. Over the past few years, Gyrodyne has positioned itself for one or more liquidity events that will maximize shareholder value. The ability to share the fruits of the condemnation award directly with our shareholders is extremely gratifying. We look forward to implementing and executing additional events that will provide liquidity and value to our shareholders."

There can be no assurance concerning the type, form, structure, nature, results, timing or terms and conditions of any transaction that may result from the Company's strategic process or that a transaction will occur at all. Gyrodyne does not intend to disclose developments regarding the process unless and until the Board of Directors has approved a definitive course of action.

About Gyrodyne Company of America, Inc.Gyrodyne, a real estate investment trust, manages a diversified portfolio of real estate properties comprising office, industrial and service-oriented properties primarily in the New York metropolitan area. Gyrodyne owns a 68 acre site approximately 50 miles east of New York City on the north shore of Long Island, which includes industrial and office buildings and undeveloped property which is the subject of development plans. Gyrodyne also owns medical office buildings in Port Jefferson Station, New York, Cortlandt Manor, New York and Fairfax, Virginia. Gyrodyne is also a limited partner in the Callery Judge Grove, L.P., which owns a 3,700 plus acre property in Palm Beach County, Florida, also the subject of development plans. Gyrodyne's common stock is traded on the NASDAQ Stock Market under the symbol GYRO. Additional information about Gyrodyne may be found on its web site at http://www.gyrodyne.com.

Forward-Looking Statement Safe HarborThe statements made in this press release that are not historical facts constitute "forward-looking information" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, both as amended, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "will," "anticipates," "expects," "projects," "estimates," "believes," "seeks," "could," "should," or "continue," the negative thereof, other variations or comparable terminology as well as statements regarding the evaluation of strategic alternatives. Important factors, including certain risks and uncertainties, with respect to such forward-looking statements that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties relating to the process of exploring strategic alternatives, the effect of economic and business conditions, including risks inherent in the real estate markets of Suffolk and Westchester Counties in New York, Palm Beach County in Florida and Fairfax County in Virginia, risks and uncertainties relating to developing Gyrodyne's undeveloped property in St. James, New York and other risks detailed from time to time in Gyrodyne's SEC reports.

2012-11-19T20:58:00.001-06:00

Price % Losers

Symbol	Name	Last Trade	Change	Volume	Related Info
LRN	K12 Inc Common Stock	16.614:00PM EST	3.84 (18.78%)	2,084,905	Chart, Profile, More
SGOC	SGOCO Group, Ltd	1.203:59PM EST	0.26 (17.81%)	189,024	Chart, Profile, More
UVXY	ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short	22.644:00PM EST	4.73 (17.28%)	10,461,088	Chart, Profile, More
TVIX	VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Sho	1.084:00PM EST	0.20 (15.66%)	20,083,246	Chart, Profile, More
AMPL	Ampal-American Israel Corporati	1.133:55PM EST	0.20 (15.04%)	11,367	Chart, Profile, More
TSTC	Telestone Technologies Corp.	1.383:59PM EST	0.24 (14.81%)	142,121	Chart, Profile, More
EBR-B	Centrais Elc Braz Pfb B Elbras	4.624:00PM EST	0.79 (14.60%)	1,123,734	Chart, Profile, More
EBR	Centrais Elc Braz Pfb B Elbras	3.794:00PM EST	0.64 (14.45%)	2,952,324	Chart, Profile, More
BOVA	Bank Of Virginia	3.012:12PM EST	0.49 (14.00%)	2,550	Chart, Profile, More
SPMD	SuperMedia Inc.	1.584:00PM EST	0.24 (13.19%)	121,867	Chart, Profile, More
ACTG	Acacia Research Corporation	20.424:00PM EST	3.02 (12.88%)	3,912,198	Chart, Profile, More
KONE	Kingtone Wirelessinfo Solution	1.883:14PM EST	0.28 (12.80%)	4,925	Chart, Profile, More
CVOL	C Tracks Exchange Traded Notes	3.424:00PM EST	0.48 (12.31%)	75,206	Chart, Profile, More
BSPM	Biostar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	1.073:59PM EST	0.15 (12.30%)	120,610	Chart, Profile, More
TOF	Tofutti Brands Inc. Common Stoc	1.194:00PM EST	0.16 (11.86%)	25,354	Chart, Profile, More
DMND	Diamond Foods, Inc.	13.344:00PM EST	1.79 (11.83%)	2,354,241	Chart, Profile, More
JAXB	Jacksonville Bancorp, Inc.	0.903:56PM EST	0.12 (11.76%)	1,927	Chart, Profile, More
BKOR	Oak Ridge Financial Services, I	4.302:58PM EST	0.54 (11.16%)	15,980	Chart, Profile, More
FU	FAB Universal Corp. Common Stoc	2.514:00PM EST	0.30 (10.68%)	64,166	Chart, Profile, More
MVG	Mag Silver Corporation Oridinar	10.134:01PM EST	1.10 (9.80%)	529,562	Chart, Profile, More
BXDC	Barclays Short C Leveraged Inve	20.974:00PM EST	2.19 (9.46%)	7,465	Chart, Profile, More
TVIZ	VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Med	13.454:00PM EST	1.36 (9.18%)	14,030	Chart, Profile, More
DWTI	VelocityShares 3X Inverse Crude	52.514:00PM EST	5.28 (9.14%)	3,755	Chart, Profile, More
GASX	Direxion Daily Natural Gas Rela	16.844:00PM EST	1.68 (9.07%)	210,287	Chart, Profile, More
VIIX	VelocityShares VIX Short Term E	17.114:00PM EST	1.66 (8.84%)	1,451,658	Chart, Profile, More

2012-11-19T20:57:00.001-06:00

Price % Gainers

Symbol	Name	Last Trade	Change	Volume	Related Info
BMTI	BioMimetic Therapeutics, Inc.	7.234:00PM EST	3.08 (74.22%)	3,838,551	Chart, Profile, More
GTIM	Good Times Restaurants Inc.	2.113:59PM EST	0.45 (27.03%)	414,845	Chart, Profile, More
TRT	Trio-Tech International Common	1.674:00PM EST	0.31 (22.80%)	45,820	Chart, Profile, More
AIM	Aerosonic Corporation Common St	3.194:12PM EST	0.54 (20.38%)	19,651	Chart, Profile, More
OCLR	Oclaro, Inc.	1.554:00PM EST	0.26 (20.16%)	3,253,864	Chart, Profile, More
HGSH	China HGS Real Estate, Inc.	3.124:00PM EST	0.52 (20.00%)	92,148	Chart, Profile, More
UOIL	VelocityShares 3X Long Brent Cr	44.174:00PM EST	7.16 (19.34%)	400	Chart, Profile, More
EBOD	Renewable Energy Trade Board Co	1.973:56PM EST	0.31 (18.67%)	1,222	Chart, Profile, More
F-WT	FORD MOTOR COMPANY	1.874:01PM EST	0.29 (18.35%)	1,516,398	Chart, More
ACAD	ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.	2.264:00PM EST	0.35 (18.32%)	2,986,958	Chart, Profile, More
AVNR	Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	2.604:00PM EST	0.37 (16.59%)	2,800,294	Chart, Profile, More
AMCN	AirMedia Group Inc	1.993:59PM EST	0.28 (16.37%)	14,899	Chart, Profile, More
TOPS	TOP Ships Inc.	1.283:36PM EST	0.18 (16.35%)	8,302	Chart, Profile, More
XPLR	Xplore Technologies Corp	3.883:21PM EST	0.54 (16.17%)	22,381	Chart, Profile, More
BTX	BioTime, Inc. Common Stock	3.514:00PM EST	0.46 (15.08%)	391,396	Chart, Profile, More
LPAL	VelocityShares 2x Palladium ETN	51.184:00PM EST	6.60 (14.79%)	296	Chart, Profile, More
LGND	Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor	19.074:00PM EST	2.40 (14.40%)	1,179,376	Chart, Profile, More
DRTX	Durata Therapeutics, Inc.	8.354:00PM EST	1.05 (14.38%)	41,320	Chart, Profile, More
WHLR		6.003:33PM EST	0.75 (14.29%)	3,740	Chart, More
ISRL	Isramco, Inc.	85.064:00PM EST	10.21 (13.64%)	1,035	Chart, Profile, More
DAEG	Daegis Inc	1.251:46PM EST	0.15 (13.64%)	2,600	Chart, Profile, More
GIFI	Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc.	22.944:00PM EST	2.71 (13.40%)	136,079	Chart, Profile, More
ASUR	Asure Software Inc	6.063:59PM EST	0.71 (13.27%)	36,173	Chart, Profile, More
SEV	Sevcon, Inc.	4.073:52PM EST	0.47 (13.17%)	1,000	Chart, Profile, More
MHR	Magnum Hunter Resources Corpora	3.894:04PM EST	0.45 (13.08%)	4,637,638	Chart, Profile, More

2012-11-19T20:56:00.001-06:00

Monday’s big movers; Apple rallies to reclaim $565

Stories You Might Like

4 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By Sue Chang and Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shares of Tyson Foods Inc., Lowe’s Cos. and Apple Inc. made big moves during a U.S. trading session Monday, while Intel Corp. and Best Buy Co. were among top trending tickers.

Top trending tickers

$INTC: Intel Corp. INTC +0.30% shares seesawed following the announcement before the bell that Paul Otellini will step down as the blue chip’s chief executive in May. The company has launched a search for his successor and will consider internal and external candidates.

“Paul Otellini has been a very strong leader, only the fifth CEO in the company’s great 45-year history, and one who has managed the company through challenging times and market transitions,” Andy Bryant, chairman of the board, said in a statement.

Click to Play

Intel CEO to retire in May

Intel said CEO Paul Otellini intends to retire in May, ending a nearly 40-year career with the chip maker. Ben Pimentel reports on Markets Hub. Photo: Reuters.

Otellini’s retirement could be “an opportunity for the board to bring in new talent to right the course of one the best technology companies in the semiconductor industry,” said Betsy Van Hees, analyst at Wedbush Securities.Intel faces challenges as Otellini prepares to step down

$BBY: Best Buy Co. BBY 0.00% was trending after a McClatchy Tribune report that CEO Hubert Joly and company founder Richard Schulze will meet this week as the latter prepared to make a buyout offer for the struggling retailer of consumer electronics.

Gainers

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF +7.17% shares climbed 7.2% ahead of its ex-dividend date of Nov. 21. The retailer last week had declared a dividend of 17.5 cents a share, payable on Dec. 11. Investors who buy Abercrombie & Fitch stock before Wednesday will be eligible to receive the dividend.

Shares of Apple Inc. AAPL +7.21% rallied 7.2% to $565.73, its highest close since Nov. 6. Scott Craig, analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, maintained a buy rating on Apple but cut his price target to $780 from $840, Barron’s reported. The shares topped $700 in early September but have dropped sharply since.

MARKETS | Expanded markets coverage
• The Tell: Market news and analysis • U.S. and Canada markets | Canada section
• European and Middle Eastern markets
• Asia — from Japan to China to Australia
• Latin America: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, more

TOOLS AND DATA | Markets data menu
• My Portfolio: Know where your funds are?
• Real-time currency exchange rates
• After-hours stock screener

MARKET SECTORS

• Financials
• Bonds
• Energy
• Airlines

• Tech Stocks
• Metals
• Telecom
• Biotech

• Oil news
• Retail
• Key indexes
• ETF finder

Lowe’s Cos. LOW +6.19% shares gained 6.2%. The home-improvement retailer reported third-quarter earnings surged 76% to $396 million, or 35 cents a share, as sales and comparable-store sales increased. Lowe’s Q3 profit jumps 76%

Tyson Foods Inc. TSN +10.90% shares stood out as one of the best performers within the S&P 500 index, climbing 11%. Before the bell, the meat processor said fourth-quarter earnings jumped 91% as its chicken business returned to profitability. Tyson’s quarterly profit rose to $185 million, or 51 cents a share, from $97 million, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, earnings were 55 cents a share. See: Tyson earnings soar 91%.

United States Steel Corp. X +5.43% shares advanced 5.4% following a report from Credit Suisse that steel stocks have room to rise in the next three months.

“We believe the recent selloff of high beta, risky assets has resulted in oversold levels in some of the steel stocks. While volatility will remain extreme heading into the ‘Fiscal Cliff,’ we believe steel stocks have already priced in some of the downside. With fundamentals set to improve in the coming months, we believe investors with a 3 to 6 month time horizon should consider this as a trading opportunity,” said Richard Garchitorena at Credit Suisse in a report.

Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN +5.76% shares rose more than 5.8%. After the closing bell, the retailer said it earned 40 cents a share in the third quarter, below the 41 cents a share forecast by analysts in a FactSet survey.

Yelp Inc. YELP +8.55% shares added 8.6%. Investment website Seeking Alpha suggested Yahoo Inc. YHOO +2.80% should consider buying Yelp as part of its effort to rejuvenate its business and repackage itself as an “exciting, innovative company.” The rationale behind this proposal is that Yahoo’s Marissa Mayer knows all about Yelp as the former vice president Google Local. Top 5 M&A ideas that could reinvent Yahoo

Decliners

Diamond Foods Inc. DMND -11.83% shares sank 12%. Analysts at Jefferies & Co. downgraded the company’s rating Monday morning. Last Wednesday, Diamond Foods reported results for the first three quarters of fiscal 2012 and said it had completed restatements for fiscal years 2010 and 2011.

2012-11-19T20:54:00.003-06:00

Big earnings on Tuesday: Hewlett-Packard, Best Buy

Salesforce.com and Heinz are also slated to report results

Stories You Might Like

0 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Among the shares expected to see active trade in Tuesday’s session are those of Hewlett-Packard Co., Best Buy Co., and Salesforce.com Inc.

Hewlett-Packard HPQ +3.50% is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.14 a share, according to a consensus survey by Thomson Reuters.

Click to Play

Dow ends over 200 points higher

The Dow Jones Industrial Average stages a triple-digit advance as investors look for signs of a compromise in Washington on the impending "fiscal cliff." Photo: Reuters.

A weak PC market and financial woes in Europe are likely to weigh on the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company’s quarterly results, analysts said. H-P seen to take hit from weak PC market

Best Buy BBY 0.00% is forecast to post third-quarter earnings of 12 cents a share.

Salesforce.com CRM +2.09% is projected to report third-quarter earnings of 32 cents a share.

H.J. Heinz Co. HNZ +1.12% is likely to report fiscal second-quarter earnings of 88 cents a share.

Hormel Foods Corp. HRL +1.39% is forecast to post fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 50 cents a share.

Campbell Soup Co. CPB +0.85% is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings of 85 cents a share.

2012-11-19T20:54:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks surge on hope for a debt deal

Dow ends up 208 points in best session for equities since Sept. 6

Stories You Might Like

158 Comments

NEW

Portfolio Relevance

LEARN MORE

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rallied Monday, notching their best session in more than two months, on upbeat housing data and increasing confidence that a U.S. budget deal would be reached.

RETAIL: FULL COVERAGE OF BLACK FRIDAY
• Why are retailers ruining Thanksgiving?
• Target faces backlash over 'Black Thursday'
• When do stores open on Black Friday?
• Book Christmas flights before Black Friday
• 10 things stores won’t say about Black Friday
• MarketWatch's Holiday Gift Guide »

“It is quite clear both sides want to come to a compromise and that a reasonable compromise is available,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, about efforts to avoid automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to begin in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.65% added 207.65 points, or 1.7%, to 12,795.96, with all of its 30 components rising. Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO +1.73% rose 1.7% after it said Sunday that it would acquire Meraki Inc. for $1.2 billion. See: Cisco buying networking firm Meraki.

Intel Corp. INTC +0.30% shares climbed 0.3% after the semiconductor manufacturer and Dow component said Chief Executive Paul Otellini would retire in May after nearly 40 years with the company. See: Intel faces mobile challenges as Otellini steps down.

Reuters

Paul Otellini of Intel

The S&P 500 Index S +1.28% climbed 27.01 points, or 2%, to 1,386.89, with its consumer sectors the best performing among its 10 industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP +2.21% gained 62.94 points, or 2.2%, to 2,916.07.

The session had all three indexes gaining the most since Sept. 6, when the market rallied on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s plan to rescue the euro.

For every stock that fell more than seven gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 711 million shares traded. Composite volume topped 3.3 billion.

The U.S. dollar DXY -0.11% fell against other global currencies as commodities rallied.

Gold futures for December delivery GCZ2 -0.04% rose $19.70, or 1.2%, to $1,734.40 an ounce and crude oil for January delivery CLF3 -0.27% climbed $2.36, or 2.7%, to $89.28 a barrel.

Stock indexes continued to rally after the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence climbed to 46 in November from 41 the previous month. See: November builder sentiment hits more than six-year peak.

Separately, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of previously owned homes increased 2.1% to 4.79 million in October. See: Sales of existing homes rise in October.

Stocks on Friday finished with daily gains and weekly losses, with the market getting a lift late in the week on optimism that the White House and Congress would reach a budget agreement.

“I think the surprise is going to be a more cooperative environment from our leaders going forward. Maybe that is what the stock market sniffed out last Friday with its intraday upside reversal on heavy volume,” wrote Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates, in an email.

Click to Play

Retailers facing jittery consumers

As merchants approach the holidays, some are seeing worrisome signs that Americans are tightening their purse strings.

On Sunday, President Barack Obama expressed confidence that the United States would “get our fiscal situation dealt with.”

The president spoke at a news conference in Bangkok, Thailand, the start of a three-nation Asian trip.

Hope that a truce could keep the Israeli army from invading the Gaza Strip for the first time in nearly four years also bolstered investor sentiment.

“News reports coming out of Europe overnight suggest that Egypt has stepped in to mediate a settlement of the escalating military conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza,” said Fred Dickson, chief investment strategist at Davidson Cos., in a research note.

SPY ~ on to 140ish....

2012-11-19T20:52:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for SPY

SPRD ~ posted option trade/tip last night....up nicely today...n/c in options

2012-11-19T20:51:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for SPRD

GOOG ~ daily ~ mentioned to buy calls at $638 11/14 evening!!

2012-11-19T20:46:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for GOOG

GMCR ~ daily ~ up another 2.78....resistance at 27.45 then she really flies...

2012-11-19T20:43:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for GMCR

BZ ~ ma50 coming up.....will test new highs if it passes it...

2012-11-19T20:35:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for BZ

BKS ~ daily ~ mentioned Sunday night ~ popped +1.05

2012-11-19T20:33:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for BKS

AMZN ~ daily ~ mentioned calls over $228....

2012-11-19T20:30:00.001-06:00

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for AMZN