Lee Tuck Sing's venture into capital market

Mercator Lines - SG Stocks

2010-01-26T17:16:00.000+08:00

Weekly
EMA - heading down
volume is low
MACD heading down and signs of Bear gaining strength
Stochastic heading towards oversold but strength is low and picking up thus showing same sign of Bear gaining strength

Daily
Bullish trendline
EMA heading down
MACD - Bear gaining strength
Stoch - show oversold signal

Decision - No action.
But if it drops below 0.28, I will buy at 0.265 if possible to get the rebound.
resistance is at 0.32

What do you think?

Straits Times 18~22 Jan & possible outlook

2010-01-23T22:29:00.002+08:00

Can you endure 3months of losses?
Weekly - sign of recovery (but turns out the rebound came only in March)
Daily - show a different sight - road to recovery

Now - 2 days of DJia of > than 1% of losses
What will STI become?
Things to note - Earning Seasons for US firms

What does Weekly Chart tells me (18~22 Jan)
Weekly STI closes below 8 EMA
Support at 2749, below that if strength persist may touch 2635
Volume is high
MACD turns down but strength is low - a bit of forming
Overbrought Stochastic - turning down
Possible - shorting opportunity

Daily
High volume on 22 Jan, but strength of Bull is weak
MAcD - Strong Bear - but may get weaker due to
SToch - reaching oversold & resistance

Decision
Entry 2791
Tgt 2718 - 32% of FIB
SL 2830
R/R 1.87

$eurjpy 19 Jan 2010

2010-01-19T23:01:00.000+08:00

Weekly Chart

Current price at $129.74
EMA heading down
MACD histogram showing poor seller strength > possible rebound
stochastic going down > sell signal

Daily Chart

EMA moving down
Seller gaining strength > sell signal
Stochastic oversold > possible rebound

Decision
Sell at 129.787
SL at 130.037

Result
stop out at 130.037

Why?

Should have set sell limit and not into market order
instead of selling at 129.787,should have set it to daily high 130.50 to see if hits
wrong calculation of stop loss limit

25pips result in $1100 losses
4 contracts
each pip cost $11

Reconsider entry point

SEURJPY - 18 Jan 2010

2010-01-18T23:59:00.000+08:00

Weekly Chart:

$eurjpy in range trading > expecting breakout soon as volume getting thinner
MACD turning down
Stochastic at 41
26 EMA - straight line

Daily Chart

MACD sloping down
13 EMA going down
Stochastic reach 17, possible oversold as previous was at 16~24 range
FIb resistance at 131.64

No Action taken

The importance of trading log

2010-01-16T19:54:00.002+08:00

It has been a while since I posted any trading log or even financial reviews.

Recently, I have been reading materials from Dr. Alexander Elder. One of the books that gave me a deep impression was Entries & exits: visits to sixteen trading rooms. You cannot imagine how much insights I have gotten from this book. Certainly, the most important learning for me in this book is to keep a trading log. Trading log > it is like a business plan to a successful business man. I was unable to keep regular trading log due to my lack of discipline. If I do not even have the discipline to keep a tradiing log, how I can have the discipline to control my emotions or simply even to stay to to my system. I have also learn the importance of trusting on my system and anyone is possible to be a great trader, as long as he has a great plan he is able to be flexible when the market turns on to him.

It is a new year, I will be going back to demo trades again, until I have the discipline to keeping a detail Trading Long and staying onto my system. I would trade life money again.

---------------------------------------

A bit of review from google book.

Book overview

Come behind closed doors and see real trades made by real trader
Dr. Alexander Elder leads readers into 17 trading rooms where they meet traders who open up their diaries and show you their trades. Some of them manage money, others trade for themselves; some trade for a living, others are still on the semi-professional level. All are totally serious and honest in sharing their trades with those who would like to learn. Readers will meet American and international traders who trade stocks, futures, and options using a variety of methods. All are normally very private, but now, thanks to their relationships with Dr. Elder, readers can see exactly how these traders make their decisions to enter and exit trades. Each chapter of this book illustrates an entry and an exit for two trades, with comments by Dr. Elder. Readers are sure to pick up useful insights, techniques, and methods. With this book as their guide, traders can get closer to mastering the key themes of trading–psychology, tactics, risk control, record keeping, and the decision-making process.

The DuBai Debt Crisis: What does it mean to you?

2009-12-01T13:00:00.001+08:00

Global financial markets haven been caught off guard by Dubai World's debt restructuring announcement. It was certainly a blessing for Singapore stocks as we were celebrating Hari Raya. On a hind sight, it also drove the equity markets around the world down by at least 1~2%.

well for Singapore it was a lucky moment, it was only a "Singapore shares close 1.09% lower"
and finally for Dubai and Abu Dhabi themselves. - Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets plunge on debt woes

The question now is what impact will Dubai's debt have the global financial markets in the coming week or in the near term.

My guess the impact of the news may die now in around 2 weeks and would not bring about the shakeout of "v" shape recovery.

Why?

the debt invloved is small - Dubai World's debt is about $60B but compared to the $2.8T in the past it is small
the banks involved are mainly from the European side, which and they are already underperforming
there is a high possibility for Abu Dhabi to offer assistance

there are marriages links
UAE's political power struggle

so there may be period of investor unease, but in Asia Pacific the impact is definitely not big. Furthermore APR exposure to middle east is small and investors may use this opportunity to bargain hunt "if they did their home work" :)

my 2 cent worth.

What I look out for in Annual report

2009-11-30T21:10:00.000+08:00

Here is a guide for what I look out for in annual report. Most people spent lots of time( I think ) reading through the annual report, some even do not bother because it is too long. But it is important to understand about the firm through the annual report.

operating cash-flow (too low may hinder growth)
net profit vs. free cashflow Growth?
Revenue mix - which products bring in the most significant amount of revenue, are they expanding in the sector, what are the losing products, product life cycle
Geographic mix - where are the high sales from? where is the country of origin? % the product contribute to the revenue
Chairman statement - are their experiences relevant
Brand accolades
Board of directors Independent, at least 2 or 3 Some level of continuity --> independent director, auditors, CFO (sometimes do not agree with the way the company are being done and they help protect the minority shareholders)
who are the auditors? Corporate bankers Auditors? Big 4 is better Principal Bankers (for eg: falmac faced audition problem)
Corporate government renumeration?
Balance Sheet: How much debt it has? (Cannot take things at face value)
Consolidate cashflow statement Is it possible? Depreciation policy (reasonable?) Taxation --> it's very useful to see the outliers Tax (expiry date?)
Trade receivable account - where are the money coming from, where are they going to? (can also tell if the management are taking out money fraudulently. The firm may use another shell company off balance sheet.
Operating leases / Rental and Operating leases * take note as they are payments
Subleases : adjusted for other party credit rating
Currency exposure?
Shareholders? Bloomberg / Fativa or even yahoo finance abt nominees
Brokers reports other than annual report Check brokers reports Knowing whether there is a share backed loan in a company is a very important things to see in a small cap investing Look up who the analyst covering the stocks (Market tends to go down due to uncertainty - stock always goes up due to more info)
liquidity of the stock ---> the risk? The stock is more liquid, allow you to get out in case you are wrong. The wave of short-selling, 1st 2nd, 3rd degree...
from brokerage report: Buy signal but the analyst cuts earning forecast that is sell signal

This is how our money system works | Watch Documentary Online

2009-11-22T18:38:00.002+08:00

Well. Think about it next time you are taking up taking up loans now.

Back in the game

2009-09-29T09:46:00.000+08:00

Poems trading Game

:You are currently ranked 86 as of 9/28/2009 6:00:09 PM"

My goal hopefully, I can get back to top 30th placing.

Current holding:

abterra
chinaAnih
china powerplant
golden agri
memstar
noble grp
VDH energy

After playing this game for a few week , buy and hold may be a very profitable strategy if you have enough capital.

because I was in the 300h placing the week before when the stocks in hand are out of money now they are much in the money and uihave bounced back in place. :)

POEMS Stock Challenge 2009-16 Sep 09 Closing

2009-09-17T00:31:00.000+08:00

I am currently ranked 227 as of 9/16/2009 6:00:08 PM

hmmm. will there be anyway to catch up?

Current position.

Abterra
China Energy
GolderAgr
Genting SP
RafflesEDU
SingConst
SunPower

Neet gain only 1%... Think I should be doing a be of rebalance tml.

POEMS Stock Challenge 2009-14 Sep 09 Closing

2009-09-14T22:20:00.001+08:00

I am currently ranked 54 as of 9/14/2009 6:00:05 PM
Current holding:

Abterra
China energy
China HX
Golden Arg
Genting SP
Raffles Edu
Sino Const
Sunpower
Lyxor cmdity 10Us$

Total position Loss 1.52%

Well hopefully, tml will be a better day, since like this game does not take transaction cost into consideration.

POEMS Stock Challenge 2009 - 1st Day

2009-09-14T13:44:00.000+08:00

Today is the first day of POEMS Stock Challenge 2009.

The game period last from 14 Sep 09 to 13 Oct 09, the objective is to accumulate as much Realised Profit as I can, subject to the following conditions:

1. At least 20% of the Total Realised Profit must be from any of the STI component stocks.

2. After which, I will be ranked according to the Total Realised Profit.

So I decided to give a try by randomly picking up a few stocks and see if I could actually profit from it. Here is my position for day.

Buy

Abterra @ 0.050
China Energy @ 0.280
China HX @ 0.220
Golden Agr @ 0.465
Genting SP @ 1.050
Raffles Edu @ 0.520
Sino Const @ 0.205
Sunpower @ 0.240

Let's see what are the result are going to be by the end of the week.

Workshop: Practical Investing

2009-09-14T13:33:00.000+08:00

My lesson on Practical Investing.

Well I made a fool out of myself today at the pratical investing lesson today.

We were given the opportunity to guess an average number that is 2/3 sum of the whole class would guess from 1 to 100. And I made the guess 72. Why would I guess 72 because I did not think much about the question.

I just assume that (maybe it would be lucky guess but even if the whole class wrote down 100 the 2/3 average would be no more than 67. Haha well initially I was quite defensive about my answer. But I soon realise I was not beginning rational ,same goes for my trading habits. Furthermore plus ego and emotional kicking in, I should have pay attention to my mistake and learn from it.

I would not make the same mistake again.