Lesley Riddoch

Blast from the past, welcome or not

2013-05-13T09:27:48+01:00

Clunking fist smashes independence – every tabloid headline and weary cliché about the former prime minister is ready to roll as Gordon Brown prepares to stride the boards in support of the Union and a Labour campaign distinct (best not say separate) from Better Together.

Journalists may already have written the story, but there’s no guarantee the Scottish public will smile upon the former Labour leader after three years of self-imposed near-silence. At long last the notoriously hesitant politician is taking a calculated risk. Will that count in his favour?

Will Scots be reassured to recognise the fundamentally capable, moral man who once ran the United Kingdom? Will we think of the glory days when he stood beside Tony Blair forming a solid New Labour wall that Scots believed the Tories would never breach again? Will his time away from the limelight and hurly-burly have produced a more modest, reflective speaker? Will his smile finally look real?

Or as soon as he speaks, will we remember the former Chancellor’s proud boast about abolishing the cycle of boom and bust? Will Labour voters judge him harshly for the long silence over Iraq and recent revelations that he offered 30 marginal seats to the Lib Dems before the 2010 election in a desperate bid to stop the Tories?

In short, is Gordon Brown like Captain Kirk in the new Star Trek movie – a very welcome blast from the past? Or like David Miliband – a walking reminder of leadership failure and pride before a terrible fall? Until he takes to his feet later today, who can tell?

Yes supporters will be in no doubt – but swithering Labour supporters are the constituency that really matters. It’s been hard to gauge the impact of Alistair Darling at the helm of Better Together. On the one hand, Gordon Brown’s erstwhile colleague had a net approval rating of +1 in February compared to Nicola Sturgeon’s +17. On the other, Ipsos Mori last week recorded a three-point drop in Yes support over the same period.

No-one’s expecting more from ex-chancellor Darling than predictions of doom and gloom on any path that deviates from “steady as we go”.

Expectations of Gordon Brown are different – partly because of his new path since leaving No.10. Well-paid international speeches have netted £1.4 million for the office of Gordon and Sarah Brown to “support his involvement in public life” and a number of children’s charities.

Brown has become a UN ambassador for education and will share a London stage with Beyoncé in June as board member of her charity Chime For Change, which promotes women’s empowerment. Perhaps the spectacle of the reformed clunking fist turned feminist could appeal to women voters – currently twice as doubtful about Scottish independence.

Perhaps – but the slightest hint of insincerity or opportunism could be politically fatal, reminding voters that the MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath spends a lot more time rubbing shoulders with the international jet set than MPs (his Commons attendance rate is just 13.6 per cent).

Perhaps, though, we don’t care. Maybe we consider that taking care of constituents, supporting women’s causes and raising money for kids’ charities is a better use of time than sitting belittled with the rest of the cannon-fodder on Labour’s backbenches. Yet, isn’t that what MPs are paid to do – even former prime ministers?

Luckily for Gordon Brown, “Big Man” worship is back in vogue thanks to the surprise departure of Manchester United’s hairdrying, Labour-supporting boss, Sir Alex Ferguson, last week. Suddenly, the tough but fair, hard as nails archetype of the Scottish male is in favour again – even if Monty Python’s Four Yorkshiremen sketch reruns involuntarily each time a tale of abuse at the “Master’s” hands is fondly recited.

But politics is about more than personality. And the constitutional debate is about more than bashing the other side. Does independence or the Union best serve Scotland’s national interests?

Sooner or later Gordon Brown will have to answer some really hard questions to win more than grudging, and potentially changeable, support.

Might the English public vote to leave the EU whilst the Scots do not? Does that prospect matter?

Does it matter that 1,000 people still own 60 per cent of Scotland or that council elections across Britain encourage only a third of the electorate to vote?

Will Scotland’s future constitutional status make any impact on the poverty, deprivation and appalling health record of Scotland’s poorest communities? If not, why not? Glasgow Centre for Population Health has found deprivation profiles of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester are almost identical, but premature deaths in Glasgow between 2003-2007 were more than 30 per cent higher. This “excess” mortality runs across almost all ages, males and females and deprived and non-deprived neighbourhoods.

Leading health professionals are bravely looking well beyond their own areas of clinical expertise towards disempowerment, grief and lack of family security in the early years to find explanations.

Can Gordon Brown explain why Scots should pin their hopes for a healthier, more equal society on the re-election of a Westminster Labour government when inequality increased under his watch last time around?

Of course the SNP must tackle the same questions. But today is Gordon Brown’s day and Labour’s opportunity to re-energise an electorate behind an alternative vision for Scotland and Britain. Scots might care greatly about the next Westminster election if Gordon Brown grasps the thistle, abandons tit-for-tat debate and unashamedly espouses the social democratic values which once prompted Peter Shore to say of John Smith: “He was too Nordic to understand southern greed.”

Gordon Brown can be the change he wants to see today by using this “local” speech about Scottish independence to launch a new political vision for the whole UK. Or he can let the SNP grab Keir Hardie’s mantle just as they successfully grabbed cultural Scottishness in the wake of devolution.

Dramatist Kevin Toolis recently observed that Blair sold hope and leadership far better than Gordon Brown – but then Blair was “selling” to a largely English electorate. Can Gordon Brown surprise the home crowd with an unapologetically Scottish rebirth as a progressive feminist socialist?

On past performance, I’m not holding my breath. But despite it all, I am still waiting.

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UKIP and the SNP, Alasdair Gray on Culture, Harry Burns on Poverty and Arctic Convoy Heroes

2013-05-10T20:11:34+01:00

UKIP’s recent election results stirred things up down in England. Lesley was keen to point out the differences between UKIP and the SNP after parallels had been drawn in her Scotsman column.

After an event “Who Runs Culture in Scotland?” in the Tron with a packed panel, including Alasdair Gray, the answer is a bit clearer.

The ‘Poverty in South Lanarkshire’ conference and some biological explanations from the Chief Medical Officer prompt some out loud thinking.

The long overdue recognition of the Arctic Convoy heroes is something we also touch upon respectfully in this week’s @lesleyriddoch podcast.

Scottish future outside Ukip grip

2013-05-06T10:14:38+01:00

It's amazing what a broad smile can do for an apparently unelectable politician. A belly-laugh turned terrifying Ian Paisley into a Chuckle Brother. A cheeky lad grin did the same for Martin “Commander” McGuinness. Now Nigel Farage has guffawed his way to 147 seats and a quarter of votes cast in last week’s council elections south of the Border.

Of course Ukip’s success was not just down to “cheeky chappie” appeal but an explicitly anti-Europe, anti-Establishment, anti-minorities, anti-claimants and anti-gay political platform. Does this “sea change” mean anything for Scotland?

On the face of it – not a lot. Ukip polled 5 per cent at European elections in Scotland in 2009, 1 per cent at Holyrood elections in 2011 and 0.28 per cent at Scottish local government elections in 2012, losing their only councillor in Fife and coming fifth behind the Greens with a tenth of their Scotland-wide vote.

Unless something momentous has happened in a year, Ukip’s anti-outsider rhetoric has failed to resonate north of the Border. Of course some Scots are hostile to officialdom, immigration, wind farms and gay marriage (the largest planks of Ukip policy). But so far, single-issue supporters haven’t gathered behind a single party capable of challenging the political “Old Firm,” or the two big currents running in political debate – competence to run Scotland and the evolving nature of devolution/independence.

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Ukip’s success is like the English riots – theoretically possible north of the Border but anchored, in practice, to a uniquely English constellation of forces and circumstances.

So could Nigel Farage upset the 2014 referendum or the next Holyrood election in 2016? Unlikely.

Firstly, only a party without any feeling for Scotland’s rapidly developing civic consciousness could suggest replacing MSPs with Scottish MPs – and only a man who visits Scotland less than Bulgaria could dismiss Nicola Sturgeon – the Scottish politician with the highest approval rating – as “grossly out of her depth” as Farage did last year.

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This week's Podcast on Wheels, Communities and Obama

2013-04-29T12:38:44+01:00

There’s a lot on the menu this week. A recent YouGov Poll suggests the Scottish public is unconvinced by Alex Salmond’s arguments for independence – are the wheels coming off ? Is it just the effect of lots of negative or indifferent campaigning? Is it to be expected , and part of a master plan?

Lesley was at the ‘Future is Local’ event at the Scottish Parliament and comes back with a few insights , including Angus Macmillan of Storas Uibhist, MSPs in the chamber and the role of AV.

And finally, Barack Obama was a top performer at the annual White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner (check out the YouTube footage ) . Leadership and comedy – is this possible ?

All quiet on the independence front

2013-04-29T08:45:04+01:00

“Where are all the protests?” A Finnish camera crew filming in Edinburgh last week was mightily surprised to find the bold, UK-boat-rocking, independence-threatening Scots tucked up indoors safe from nasty Arctic blasts. Where were the massive demonstrations – as there have been in Spain, Greece and Cyprus – over austerity? Why no posters or banners? Why so little evidence of passion, anger or a united sense of purpose? Is independence a dead duck?

You could try to explain that Scots aren’t very demonstrative if you weren’t addressing Finns, who have cornered the world market in sangfroid.

Sisu is almost the only Finnish word to have made it into English – accurately describing the determination, endurance and resilience of a nation that became independent without a second thought after the Russian Revolution in 1917, only to plunge immediately into Europe’s bloodiest civil war and a herculean struggle against the Russian Red Army which ultimately ended in a decade of reparations.

When even the taciturn Finns are surprised at Scottish reserve, something significant must be afoot. Is the independence campaign quiet, real quiet, too quiet? Or working away quietly at local level, or permanently on the back foot, or all of the above?

A weekend poll suggests the wheels are coming off the cart for Alex Salmond whose “indy lite” strategy is failing to galvanise the masses.

The YouGov survey, commissioned by Better Together, shows 62 per cent of Scots unconvinced by Alex Salmond’s case for independence – including a quarter of SNP voters.

Of course some SNP voters in 2011 were traditional Labour supporters looking for drive, competence and social progress, not independence. It’s not surprising they are still undecided. And others unconvinced by Alex Salmond may be completely convinced about independence. They will hardly vote No in protest over his “indy lite” appeal to floating voters.

The question is whether the debate has stalled – and whether the SNP’s “let a thousand flowers blossom” strategy is failing to overcome the relentless negativity of the No Campaign. The SNP and the Yes Campaign are relying on tailored individual messages to make independence appeal to different social groups. What may coax a non-voting single mum struggling with childcare costs in Glasgow to consider a Yes vote, for example, may not motivate a childless pensioner living in Strichen.

But while the SNP are busily micro-managing the message, all voters are being bombarded with daily volleys of negativity from the massed artilleries of Darling, Osborne, Alexander et al.

Where is the return of fire? Indeed, where is the strategy to have more than a political re-enactment of the Somme, with each side slugging it out?

The nationalist cavalry is coming, apparently, in November, when recent difficulties raised over post-independence currency, economic policy, pensions, EU membership, welfare policy and NATO membership will be countered by big, beefy expert reports.

In the meantime, morale is faltering – but that may be no fault of Alex Salmond. Scotland is entering politically uncharted territory in 2014. No Nordic nation approached its own “breakaway” moment with such substantial equivocation. The Irish struggle was hesitant, then bloody and unlikely to act as a template. The Quebecois are driven by language and culture – the Scots are not. The Catalans have grassroots support but no democratic mechanism.

Scotland’s independence movement is unique. How then should the campaign look 18 months from the finishing post? Frankly, who knows?

Some would like the SNP to change tack now, drop their “all things to all people” approach and publish a summer manifesto to demonstrate whether desirable policy goals can or cannot be met within the United Kingdom. That would focus minds wonderfully, get the Yes Campaign off the rebutting back foot, and allow democratic modification by other parties and civic groups.

Perhaps this is what’s being planned or perhaps – like the long-awaited Yes Campaign launch – the Big Reveal will be a disappointment.

Alex Salmond and the SNP appear to be caught between a rock and a hard place. If their future vision reveals an independent country similar to Scotland within the UK, none but the diehards will see any point in change.

On the other hand, a vision in which Scotland finally grasps the thistle of land reform, community control, de-centralisation, renewable energy, equality and co-operative housing might attract “red-green” voters but alienate those who currently benefit from the status quo. At some point the SNP must nail one set of political colours to the mast – I’m not convinced the time is now.

What’s needed immediately is morale-building and visibility. Why has Alex Salmond not been on BBC Question Time head-to-head with George Osborne, Vince Cable or Danny Alexander? Never mind all the etiquette and rigmarole about who will debate with whom. Time is passing and voters deserve to hear single arguments conducted in single public arenas.

Where is the human story? Alex Salmond was once doing well as an oil economist in a big bank. He could have bitten his lip, dumped his unfashionable, nationalist views and kept taking the salary. He didn’t. Likewise John Swinney and other prominent nationalists were attracted to very conventional jobs. These were not losers, outsiders, marginalised men or wild eyed radicals. So why rock the boat?

Scottish voters still haven’t heard the personal story of these men and women without proselytising, slick messages, wiseguy asides, cleverly composed statistics or celebrity help. I want Alex Salmond to look right into the TV lens and tell me from his heart what persuaded him that Scotland can only progress without the rest of the UK.

It’s engagement that’s currently lacking, not a detailed post-2014 plan. That can come. As former SNP MSP Jean Urquhart puts it, Alex could “reassure people they are tough enough to do this rather than assure them everything will be OK”.

And here the Finns have something worth learning. Sisu does not means momentary courage, but the ability to sustain an action against the odds. You’ve either got that or you haven’t. Do the Scots? It’s not a question for Alex Salmond – it’s a question for ourselves.

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