My View Point

Defense Deal in abeyance

2021-01-28T20:58:00.003+05:30

US-Saudi/UAE, Defense deals in abeyance is a major geopolitical event and has very serious implications on many nations. This action also gave framework to Biden foreign policy towards Gulf and major countries.

By this defense deal abeyance, Biden has tried to repair the damages made by the Trump administration to Iran. It shall also open the gates of the US-Iran Nuke deal and removal of economic embargo on Iran.

Supremacy of Saudi over Organization of Islamic Cooperation is being challenged and Turkey shall take full advantage of this opportunity.

Israel also has to pay the price of this defense deal abeyance as other Islamic countries shall not increase their relation further with Israel.

India and China have an opportunity to fill in the shoes of the US, as Saudi has deep pockets and budget for defense procurement and can also offer discounted curd oil.

A Nation of Mistake

2019-08-23T21:28:00.000+05:30

Biggest Mistake of Pakistan:

Nation of Mistakes: In 1947, a nation took birth on religious grounds, getting separated from India at the time of independence. During partition, citizen of both the countries had paid the price of independence, and hence had high level of feeling of nationality. As many Islamic states, Pakistan was also wanted to prosper and develop like them. Pakistani Leadership as well as Pakistanis would have high dreams and aspirations towards their nation. The geographical location of Pakistan was also favourable, as the all the trade routes from India to central Asia was through Pakistan and was geographically neared to gulf countries as well. But what were the reasons that a newly formed Islamic nation, full of enthusiasm and nationality, with a good demography, did not prosper? Was that a curse or the mistakes made by the nation?

From any new nation, few mistakes are always expected and both India and Pakistan had made several mistakes. But today we will discuss some blunders made by Pakistan which led them blead the 1000 cuts.

The first Blunder: After Second World war, the world powers had entered into the era of cold war. US and USSR were gaining power by developing new weapons, gaining new technology, making new alleys and engaging in Proxy wars. Both US and USSR were aggressively engaging with other nations to demonstrate their powers and the world was divided into two factions. At that time, developing nations such as India and Egypt had chosen to be non-aligned with any of the nations and made the third front.

However, in Yr. 1954 Pakistan chose to join the league of US, where US had supported Pakistan with financial Aid and in return Pakistan was US puppet in International Politics. The US aid had crippled the economy of Pakistan and they were getting dependent of US day by day. Also, this aid was directed to Pakistani Defence and hence the importance of Pakistani Defence has grown immensely in the nation. Then Pakistani defence was getting involved in all governmental decisions. This has led to adopting centralisation policy, where Pakistan with only 2 states (West Pakistan and East Pakistan) was established. There was no representation in Government from many rural areas of Pakistan, led to discomfort in many sections such as Pashtuns & Baloch.

The high involvement of Pakistani Defence in Pakistani Government had also led to biased judiciary, where judiciary had defended all the acts and principles of Pakistani Defence, under Law of Necessity. With these acts, the minorities in Pakistan were losing faith in the Pakistani Government as they were not heard and their democratic rights were being challenged every now and then. That was a virtual military rule were all were managed with a yard stick and there was no place for Diversity. The over power of military has led to several coup by the Military Generals and a parallel administration of Military/ISI in Pakistan.

On the contrary, In India, Judiciary was totally independent, Indian defence forces were having limited access in government policies and UNITY IN DIVERSITY was the key mantra.

The Second Blunder of Pakistan was the ignorance and nonacceptance of East Pakistanis. After independence, the east Pakistan was highly neglected in-spite of fact the one of the main reasons for the partition was the Bengal Massacre. East Bengal has to earn their own bread and no financial aid was provided to them. Also, the Pakistani defence forces were manhandling the citizens of East Pakistan and their voice was unheard. This had led to several unrests in East Pakistan. The worst decision of Pakistan was to not to accept the election result where the party of Mujibur Rahaman, Awami League won the majority seats in the election of 1970. Then Government had conspired against Mujibur Rahaman, which led to civil unrest and formation of Mukti Bahini – a Bangladeshi Force for freedom. The Mukti Bahini made ties with India and gain their Independence. The partition of Pakistani territory was the biggest loss to the nation. On hand Pakistan had not utilised the strengths of its geopolitical location where the Pakistan before Yr. 1972, was having the access of central Asia as well as South East Asia. Pakistan could enjoy the luxury of its strategic location however it was busy fighting with India.

The Third blunder was to engage with US in Afghanistan and nourish Taliban against the Afghani Govt. backed by USSR. In 1980s, Afghanistan become the proxy war land for USSR and USA. USSR was backing the legible govt. of Afghanistan; however, USA was backing the local rebel groups to over through the local government. US was very far from Afghanistan hence need a safe place for their army to land and operate. Pakistan was the perfect place for them. At that time Pakistan did not though that stability in the neighbouring country would be helpful for Pakistan prosperity, on the country Pakistan supported US for the sake of aid. Pakistan had also supported Taliban and trained then to fight against Afghanistan Army. Pakistan was infamous in Afghanistan as ‘the supari killers in Afghanistan’.

This has later led to rise of other terrorist groups against Iran and India. Pakistan has officially and unofficially supported some of the terrorist groups and facilitate them to prepare training centres as well as the launch pads. After some time, the terrorist groups were bulling the federal government of Pakistan. The terrorist groups were acting as a strong non state actors and were executing terrorist activities in India, Afghanistan and Iran in corporation with ISI.

Later on, in Yr. 1999, ISI, Pakistan Military and some terrorist organisations had crossed the limit and conspired against India to capture Kargil, with the intension to cut the only highway between Kashmir and Leh. Under General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistani Military backed militant groups had captured some of the Hill tops, at the time when military of both nations come down as the posts become inhabitable. India had won the war with heavy loses and expose Pakistan in International forums regarding state sponsored terrorism. At that time, US had to intervene and supported Pakistan and later on the situation was such that the coup by General Pervez Musharraf was inevitable. This event had once again destabilised Pakistan and pushed the development miles away.

The fourth Blunder of Pakistan was the extension of the third one. In Yr. 2001, world’s biggest terrorist incident occurs in US, the 9/11 attach. After that attach, US was on war against terrorism across the world and the main convict of the attach was hiding in Afghanistan and Pakistan. US has clear their stand on terrorism and ask Pakistan to be either fight against terrorism in Pakistan or no ties with US. Pakistan wanted to ride in both the boats as Pakistan could not control the terrorist organisation in Pakistan also don’t wanted to lose US. The terrorist groups were then backed by local parties and ISI/Military. Eventually the US had got Osama in Pakistan, which was the huge embarrassment for Pakistan. The US-Pakistan relation was gone for a toss. Pakistan later loses the US aid and the diplomatic relation with US. This had reduced the international investments and Pakistan was soon getting Isolated. Supporting terrorism has also cost a dent on the International image of Pakistan, that further led Pakistan in to FATF Grey List.

FAFT is a body founded by G7 countries to control over the money laundering through the channels of Smuggling of Drugs, Gold, Humans and what not. That money is later utilised for terrorist funding. FATF is being formed to track down all such transactions and based on the inputs they put the countries in to Grey list (if something fishy is going on) and Black list (if the state is sponsoring/facilitating the terrorist funding).

In the need of Investment, Pakistan committed the fifth and may be their final blunder as a sovereign nation. Pakistan was under Financial stress and needed some foreign investments. On the other hand, China was welcoming all the poor and needy nation to put them under one Road one Belt initiative, where china invests huge amount on non-potential infrastructure projects in poor and needy nations. Under OROB, China is being benefited in both ways. If the project goes well, then the repayment on high Interest rate will support China’s Economy and China’s Image will improve. If the project doesn’t goes well, China will negotiate other aspects in return of those loans, as they did in Hambantota (Sri Lanka). Now, Pakistan is also in that trap. CPEC – China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a subset of OROB, Where China is developing Gwadar Port and laying roads and railway tracks by issuing High interest loans to Pakistan. Ironically, under CPEC, those infrastructures have to be developed by Chinees companies. The money will flow from China and will automatically diverted to China. Now Pakistan Economy is in great Economic crisis, where the domestic demand is low due to high inflation, revenue collection is also low and Interest debts has raised to all time high. Pakistan is now bound to take IMF bailout package, which will relieve the Pakistani Economy but will produce great stress on Pakistanis.

What can happen Next?

Todays Pakistan is under tremendous pressure from Multiple ends. India has invoked Article 370, Pakistan to be under FATF Black list, IMF package have strict regulations & Term of Army general has been renewed for 3 more years. https://namastehumanity.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-nation-of-mistake.html?m=1 all are the clear indication of the 4^th Army Coup on Civil Government.

Superpower in Incubator

2019-07-29T05:49:00.004+05:30

China could be a future world Superpower and the Robin hood of poor nations, as it is growing in multiple fronts with the firm roots in their own culture. China is now challenging all present superpowers on multiple fronts. They are increasing their foot prints all over the world, making heavy investments in Africa and Central Asian countries under OROB, and influencing other nation to adopt their language and culture.

The impetus of China is so large that in Africa an old alley of west African countries, FRANCE, had to make ties with China for engagement in the region and US has to lure their NATO alley, such as Italy, as they are also drifting towards China's OROB. Today's China is a wealthy magnet, which is utilizing its strength by attracting developing/under developed nations. This make China more influential in Inter governmental organisations such as United Nations and will able to control trade routs of the world.

Few days back, China has made a military base at one of the islands of the Cambodia, however, Cambodian constitution does not allow for the same. US had warned Cambodia but they had indulged with China on multiple fronts, hence could not refuse the offer. With this China has grown its presence in one more country. China had already captured Sri Lanka's Hambantota port and a military base at Djibouti, Africa. They are dominating the South sea and the presence is much more than any other nation in Central Asia.

But now the Question is, Will it be enough to be a super power? China is lacking in some fronts such as defense equipment manufacturing, Genetic research and development etc. To cover all such aspect China has to rely on other nations. China being communist Country does not gain trust of many important nations, therefore they don't have a strong alley base. China has its border dispute with 18 of its neighboring countries and has several other disputes with prominent nations such as Japan, India, Taiwan etc. China will not be a super power without its loyal alleys and peaceful borders, therefore China needs to build strong ties with developing/large nations such as Australia, India and Russia.

One more question arise is that, What US and other super powers are doing to counter China? The superpower US, France, UK and Germany are not united in many fronts. They were initially ignorant towards China's growth and now they don't have that niche to control over China's growth. These nations are indulged with other nations and don't have such focus to counter China. US is indulge in Afghanistan, Syria, North Korea and Iran, UK is indulge in BREXIT, France & Germany is indulged in their own nationalist movements. These nations are heavily dependent on other nations such as Australia, Japan and India but these nations have their own issues and commitments. India being a neutral state by its history, does not alien its foreign policy towards US or China. Australia on the other hand has deep ties with United States and high trade with China, therefore it would be impossible for a nation to alien with any of them and damaging either of its security ties or trade with the nations. However, Japan has very deep ties with US but Japan alone will not be enough to control over China.

Here comes the opportunity for China, If China could solve issues with its neighboring giants such as India, that will boost Indo-China relation much beyond. China also have to make strong ties with Russia. As by improving relation with Russia, China will get easy excess to earlier Soviet Countries. With the support of India and Russia - China can led the world for the next coming decades.

To the ultimate combination of world dominance potential, recently Mr. Trump had added a spark to the fuel. US president has recently pushed India into an uncomfortable zone by stating that Indian Prime Minister has asked Mr. Trump to be an Arbitrator/mediator between India and Pakistan on Kashmir issue. India has always made a clear stand that Kashmir is an bilateral issue and no third party is invited but poking nose in an Indian issue will give a new direction to it.

As US is withdrawing its ties with Turkey, a NATO ally, by cancelling its deal of manufacturing of F-35 fighter aircraft, just because Turkey has bought S-400 Missile defense system from Russia and has inclination towards Russia. Then it can be considered that India would be the next target for US. US has already initiated a trade war with India by imposing tariff to Indian steal and aluminium products and removing special status of India. Indian govt. always maintain a stance of non-alignment with any of the super power but in present scenario India was inclined towards US and was giving equal of more preference to Indo-US relation over any other bilateral relations. India was also the part of Quad Group and JAI group (Japan, America, India) which are formed to counter China in the Indian ocean region.

But after all potential threats form US under Mr. Trump, India will definitely look for an alternate option and China has the potential to fill the gap. I personally feel China has more potential to bring India and Pakistan on a table and bring out some solution on Kashmir because

i. All three nation meet on an annual event of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation),

ii. China has the possession of Aksai chin and the land gifted by Pakistan,

iii. China is developing infra structure project in POK,

iv. China is keen to include India under OROB,

v. Pakistan is under debt trap of China,

vi. India would be happy to resolve all border dispute with China
vii. Indian Economy will get boost under well negotiated OROB,
viii. China need bigger market for upcoming product such as 5G.

These are enough reasons for China to pursue the issue of mediation with India and Pakistan and in this deal, India would have an upper hand over Pakistan. But it won’t be that simple. India knows that Indo-US relation is beyond the Trump’s regime and will definitely won’t lose such a super power alley. Also, India had a bad experience with China in Yr.1962, when India pass their offer of UN security council permanent seat to China and in return China started war on India on the issue of Dalai Lama. India would not fall in that trap again. But India can definitely aspect to get a positive outcome from the deal if it happens, India can resolve their issue of Azad Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh border dispute, and handing over of Hafiz Sayeed and Masood Azar to India. In return, India may accept to be part of OROB and accept to start dialog and trade with Pakistan.

A peaceful South Asia is a need for all.

Photo by Unsplash

Honk Kong is complicated!!

2019-04-07T23:06:00.000+05:30

Present day Hong Kong is a developed and prosperous habitat. It is a free market capitalism where Democratic government has a limited control on the market. But do you know that Hong Kong is a part of China? No I am not making it up….it’s true. Hong Kong is an autonoms region of China and China also accepted the two system one nation theory…but why it is so?

The answer lies in History of China and United Kingdom. During colonization period, United Kingdom (UK) was expending their boundaries. They had invaded Indian subcontinent and many African countries. China’s rich culture attracts many invaders and UK was one of them. In initial days, UK was importing tea and other herbs from China in Exchange of Silver, but when the silver deposits were at their danger mark, UK conspire with many subgroups of China to trade Opium (a drug) in exchange of silver.

The opium trade, grown in South East Asia, was in benefit of UK and demolishing China’s Youth. Many of the Chinese men were in addition of Opium. Chinese then government, the Qing Dynasty, wanted to stop the opium trade but that had to face the consequences.

UK initiated the war, infamously known as ‘The Opium War’. During the war China lost their territory and surrendered in front of UK. UK in return agreed to sign a treaty. In that treaty, UK gained the hold on a group of Islands, now famous as Hong Kong, for 99 Years of lease in 1898.

Now the Questions is, unlike any other country annexed by the UK, how Hong Kong developed like any other European city? Answer to this Question is Common interest of UK, France and USA in China. After Annexation, UK utilized the Hong Kong Island as a trade market between China and rest of the developed Nations. In the process of making the Hong Kong a global market for all developed nations, the infra structure get developed.

Also during this, Hong Kong become the worlds first and biggest free market which was a Tax haven for organizations and a stable domain which was perfect for the businessmen. Therefore many organizations, across the globe, have their head Quarters/regional offices in Hong Kong. This had pushed the economy of Hong Kong.

And the lease of 99 yrs…

In 1990s, Hong Kong was the hub of business and trade across world. China was eagerly waiting for the Treaty to expire, as Hong Kong’s GDP was 1/3rd of China’s GDP & could support China Economically. China started their talks with UK regarding handover of Hong Kong, but the difficulty was in mixing the two separate cultures in to one. China being a full communist country and had full dominance on the business running in their country, but on the contrary Hong Kong was a free market region. China’s dominance on Hong Kong market could jeopardize the equilibrium in Hong Kong. Both China and UK did not want that to happen with Hong Kong.

Hong Kong also has large cultural difference with China. In Hong Kong, People are freer and enjoy the liberty to do many such things which are not allowed in China. For e.g. In 1989, a large massacre happen in China at Tianamen Square, people in China are not allowed to even talk about that unfortunate incident, however in Hong Kong, the residents pay tribute to the victims of the massacre. Hong Kong has their own language, currency, constitution and many other such difference shall surface when the two domains merge to one.

To avoid any such conflict, a new theory worked out – One nation two System theory i.e. Hong Kong shall remain a democratic free market economy for next 50 Yrs., under the control of China for external aggression. All parties were agreed to the formula and the hand over took place in Yr. 1997.

China got tremendous benefit out of Hong Kong free market model and infra structure development. China replicated the Hong Kong model in many of their cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou and many more. China had invest in these cities and made them a next generation business and manufacturing hub for the world. This was the impact of Hong Kong over China, but does China repays the favors to Hong Kong? Why is Hong Kong dying?

As China developed as a superpower, the Hong Kong region contributing 27% of China’s GDP in 1998, is now contributing only 3% of China’s GDP. This is because of copy development done in many other Chinese regions. As the importance of Hong Kong is reduced to many folds, China also bothered less about the Hong Kong’s autonomy.

In view to increase their influence and dominance in Hong Kong, China is intervening in Hong Kong by imposing their policies such as placing a pro China politicians in the local government, infuancing their education system. Hong Kong is now struggling for the existence of their free culture. The Hong Kong residents get united several times and hold a strong voice against Chinese interventions.

Not only the Chinese intervention is the problem for Hong Kong residents, also they have an over expensive accommodation issue. A very developed region is facing an issue of very dense population leading to expensive accommodation. The people working in lower income groups had to pay atleast 50% of their salaries for a decent accommodation. They are force to live in a match box style flats with common kitchen and bathroom facility.

This is because of the poor implementation of the Housing policy. In Hong Kong, all land belongs to Government and they allocate a piece of land on a lease to a housing developer. Accordingly, housing developer either builds a luxurious home for top brass of Hong Kong or builds densely accommodated flats for a very premium price. Also after 1997, Chinese billionaires had heavily invested in Hong Kong which leads to sky rocketed price of housing property.

Now, I see an opportunity for China to enter in to the Hong Kong Culture. As per Communist ideology, all human beings shall be treated as equals. This propaganda can be used by China to lure lower and medium income group people to promise for cheap homes, in case they support China towards withdrawing the autonomy of Hong Kong.

This is surely gonna happen within next Decade and I also see opportunity for India to grab the unsatisfied organization present in Hong Kong and offer a better place in India...

Why France is burning?

2018-12-21T15:29:00.000+05:30

It is hard to believe that a developed country like France is facing violent agitations. For more than one month the protesters are now on roads of Paris against steep rise in petrol price and high cost of living. The Protesters are now demanding low fuel rates, a comprehensive tax reform and increase in minimum wages. The protest is considered as a political vendetta by extremist groups against France President Emmanuel Macron.

The protest is also known as Yellow vest movement, as the protesters are wearing florescent colour high visibility vest during marches and blockades.

But is it the only reason for the protest? a big NO.

There is a history behind all this and its roots are from World war II. After world war II, the Germany occupied France was completely demolished and needs to be rebuilt. All powerful nations helped France to rejuvenate and initiated various infrastructure projects across the nation. For the projects, Labour workers were brought from north African and middle east Asian countries. From there the problem arises.

These large number immigrants were later settled in outskirts of Paris and many law & order situations were arise in these suburbs. As the time passes, the population of the immigrants grew rapidly and was much more as compared to the population growth of original natives of France.

The far left political wing of France always has disagreement with govt. policies regarding immigrants and promote the idea of pure nation. A Nation comprising only original native of France. Uncountable dispute were also recorded over a period of time between Far left followers and Immigrants.

These all issues led to Yellow vest movement. Now the situation is so worst that a developed country is failing to control violent agitations which has already destroyed property worth Millions of Dollars. The protest is gone to the next level and similar protests are also stated in Israel.

Now the Question is Where are we going? In a period of Globalisation and Inter-dependency of nations, Dose Isolation exist?

Is US selective?

2018-12-16T17:13:00.000+05:30

Recently US administration has released the list of blacklisted countries, for following ill practices towards systematic oppress of Minority in their nations.
Under US’s International Religious Freedom Act of 1998, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced the name of 10 countries – China, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Eritrea, Mynamar, Saudi Arabi, Sudan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan – which are designated as “Countries for Particular Concern”. The US understand that many minority individuals in these countries continue to face harassment, arrests, or even death for simply living their lives in accordance with their beliefs.
To understand the issue, we must first know that what is International Religious Freedom Act of 1998?
It is an act/law passed by US Congress to promote religious freedom as a foreign policy, to promote greater religious freedom in countries which engage in or tolerate violations of religious freedom, and to advocate on the behalf of individuals persecuted for their religious beliefs and activities in foreign countries. The said act is based on Sanskrit shloka Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (वसुधैव कुटुम्बकम).

What is the issue then?
The issue lies in selective use of the Act. The name missing in the list is Israel. Why? Let me explain…
Israel’s “Basic Law” describes the country as a “Jewish and democratic state” and the penal code of Israel under Article 173, constitutes a “blasphemy” law, mandating a one-year term of imprisonment if one hurts the religious sentiment of Jewish community. The law limits expression on religion in broad terms and criminalise the publications under right to expression. Various issues of religion/belief discrimination persist in Israel.
Then why US has not considered Israel in the list of offender to International Religious Freedom Act of 1998?
That’s a hugely controversial question as US support for Israel is really massive, including billions of dollars in aid and reliable diplomatic backing. It all started from the Cold War era, as the US came to view, Israel as a key buffer state against Soviet influence in the Middle East and aid help to save Israel from a surprise Arab invasion.
Also a large Jewish community lives in US who sympathised with Israel. As the community in US is large in number and can be deciding factor in US politics, hence all politicians pay whole hearted attention towards relation with Israel.
Now the Questions arise... What message US wants to deliver by releasing the list?
To my understanding, the list is a warning letter to nations like Pakistan, who is shifting their foreign policy towards China. US wants to convey strongly that any step of Pakistan towards China could led to sanctions on Pakistan as per International Religious Freedom Act.

Isn’t it a threat to an independent nation?

Please share your views….

Africa the new war land

2018-12-12T20:27:00.001+05:30

In today’s world, Asian countries are most talked about for many reasons, sometimes it is about Iran Sanctions, sometimes it’s growing Influence of China in south china sea, and sometimes it is about Russia & Ukraine dispute. It is because most of the dynamic activities happen in these states and Asian countries contribute a lot in various fields such as technology, space exploration and environment conservation etc. It is highly anticipated that a power shift will happen from the European and American nations to Asian and African Nations.

To have a share from the upcoming Pie, all the nations are trying to make their ground to dominate in Asian and African Continent. As India and China are most promising nations and are growing like anything, all power centers are diverging and aligning themselves to the new flow of Power.

You don’t believe it !!! Let me Explain...

US has imposed Sanctions on Iran (no export/import allowed from Iran) and exemptions were given to 8 nations. Out of those 8 nations 6 are Asian Countries.
France is strengthening their diplomatic ties with India on Multiple front such as defence sector, Renewable energy sector etc.
US is upgrading the defence exercise with JAI nations, as in addition to Malabar Naval Exercise (A joint exercise by US, Japan & Indian Navy), Joint Air Defence exercise is also proposed.
US, China and India are engaging with many African nations to strengthen their diplomatic ties.

This explains the power nations has keen interest but why? Dose these continents has the potential to deliver?

Asian and African countries total account to 74% of world population.
75% of rare earth minerals reserves are available in Asian and African nations.
Land mass of these two continents is more than 50% of total land mass on earth.
GDP (PPP) of Asian and African nation is 58% of the whole world’s GDP (PPP).
17 Asian and African countries top the list of top 20 largest Army in the world and hold 40% share of world spending on defence budget.

As the countries in these two continents are growing and their middle/lower income people are entering in to higher income groups, these nations seems to be the biggest market of whole world. Also as per research it is anticipated that India, China and Nigeria will contribute 50% of the world population.

With these example, it can be construed that Asia and Africa are the gold egg hen in the internationals politics.

All developed nations are tying relations with Asian and African countries, but Asian countries are having higher bargain power as compared to African countries. Hence it is easy to propose lucrative offers to African countries in particular.

African countries have huge potential with a fragile governing system, that’s opens an entry gate for many nations. Over the period of time US and his allies were dominating the region by providing various fund (non-debt funds). But recently US under Trump administration, has reduced their free flowing fund to Africa and China has expressed their interest in investing in African Continent. Under OBOR initiative China has engaged with many African nations and has provided funds (debt fund) and helping them to develop various infrastructure projects.

Now the west countries would have assessed their loss of control as African countries getting debt trapped. They will come up with a more lucrative offer and may gain their lost ground. But the process of gain and losing the ground will create a friction which may result in proxy war between two superpower Democratic front (US and NATO countries) Vs Communist front (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran).

Please share your views....

Chinese Bubble about to burst

2018-12-02T19:06:00.000+05:30

China has dominated the Asia's economy for more than 3 decades and it was only possible due to their economic reforms towards the mass production and favorable conditions towards exports. Now in today's world China is expending their geopolitical powers by initiating an ambitious project of Maritime Silk road project (aka One Belt One Road - OBOR). Under OBOR, China is extending debt (loans) to Asian and European nations for infrastructure development project.

These Infrastructure projects are the win win for both the parties, as billions of dollars pumped in to an economic weaker nations and China gains influence over these nations by creating debt traps. India has objected and boycotted the OBOR, as India is cautious enough towards these debt trap, as Sri Lanka has fallen into.

Now if the Projects under OBOR are completed and successful, then China would get enormous global advantages. China would have much stronger say in UN and could control many of the International sea trade routes. But the success of the OBOR is not that easy, as it demands a lot more what it looks like. Billions of $ need to be plunged in from China's deep pockets, which make China vulnerable in Economic front. OBOR also demands constant faith and strong diplomatic ties between the recipient nations and China, because if the diplomatic relations get effected, the projects may put on halt.

To maintain the cash flow and keep up the diplomatic ties with all recipient nations, China would be taking many steps such as taking hefty loans from their Nationalized Banks, cutting down the surplus, maintaining or fabricating high GDP growth rate, taking a back door entry into internal offices of recipient nations and mush more. But the treacherous step, from among all the step, is promoting the shadow banking sector.

Now you would be wondering that what is Shadow Banking? It is an Institution (Non banking) which clubs up the loans into a financial instruments and sell it to investors. Is it good or bad? Theoretically it is an excellent product which reduces the risk of finance institutes and easy loans are available to its recipients. Than why it is a treacherous step? Because the things are not that simple how it looks. As the risk belong to investors, the financial institute get very liberal about distributing the loans. In simple words "it is a distribution of investor's money to several parties without concentrating on how will they return.

China is constantly promoting Shadow banking, in-spite of knowing the fact that similar instrument has detonated the 2008 recession. China is backing these shadow banks, in case of any system failure but this is also true that this huge loan amount can't reimbursed by any nation that is why it is a treacherous step.

December is Coming

2018-11-28T11:14:00.000+05:30

Coming Winter will be the month of many uncertainties. Indian and Britain political diaspora are on a roller coaster ride, as both the nations are encountering the similar crisis.

As 2019 Lok sabha elections are approaching in India, political blame game is on the front page of any national daily. Opposition is trying to expose the incompetence of NDA govt. and projecting many issues such as

Fiasco of Demonetisation - lead to loss of Rs. 5000 Crore (approx.).
Improper implementation of GST - lead to unsatisfied businessman.
Over price Rafale deal - Price uncovered after supreme court intervention.

NDA is also defending their stand by projecting their good steps (mentioned as follows) towards stronger Nation.

Jan Dhan Yojna - Total amount deposited Rs. 65,844.68 crore
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana - 2 crore LPG connections to BPL households.
Rural area Electrification - Availability of electricity in each village area.
Naga Peace Accord - lead to peace in North east region
Key defence deals with US, Russia, France and Israel.
Infrastructure Development - 40 km of roads are being constructed daily.

But above all these issues, one big issue which rose exponentially in last 6 months is of RAM MANDIR. All non ruling parties and Dharam Gurus are now raising a question that why BJP could not get the clearance to build the RAM MANDIR, as it was their one of the biggest political agenda.

The agitations and discussions are on the highest level, and demand to build RAM MANDIR is as high as it was never before in last two decades. The govt. is also under pressure to retain their regular vote bank and be in power for the next term. In view of this, Govt. is having an option to bring referendum through their cabinet to start the work of RAM MANDIR in Ayodhya. It could only happen after 11 Dec’18 due to code of conduct imposed for State elections.

Britain, a nation which rules India for more than 200 years, is facing a crisis of BREXIT. In Year 2016 a referendum was conducted for exit of Britain from European Union (aka EU). The outcome of referendum was in favour of exiting Britain from EU aka BREXIT. Since than the BREXIT deal, settlement between EU and Britain, was under scanner. Many discussions were held and many offer was produced to settle the BREXIT deal, but all were failed till the deal of Nov’18. The latest deal, approved by Britain cabinet, is being produced to EU, and 27 leaders of EU has also approved the same. But the fight does not end here, the deal has to be approved from Britain’s House of Commons and then only it will be considered as a closed deal.

What is the problem of getting BREXIT deal approved from House of Commons?

There are several issues as it is an 500+ pages document, however we will discuss few major points only.

Border issue of Northern Ireland - The northern Ireland, a Britain control province, share a border with Ireland (an independent nation). Many years before the EU was formed, to resolve a major dispute, an agreement was made between Ireland and Britain, that the border of Northern Ireland shall remain open for Ireland for trade and culture. However today's scenario has been changed, Britain is divorcing EU and Ireland will remain in EU. Therefore that border is suppose to be closed.

In solution to this issue, it is proposed to have a trade deal between Britain and EU and that may resolve the border opening dispute.

UK has agreed to pay 39 billion pounds to EU against various MOUs signed with various nations, during the EU period. To honour the MOUs Britain agreed for the Alimony towards easy divorce.
Validity of work permits of Cross Citizens working in different nations of EU, was also a big concern. It was handled well and decided to keep status Quo. However, Visa free travel will be closed after complete BREXIT. The non visa free travel will impact health and education industry in Britain.
One more major issue, which was off the table of BREXIT deal but help in concluding it, was of Gibraltar with Spain. Gibraltar was a Britain controlled territory, located near Spain, and was part of Spain in early 18th Century. To sign the BREXIT deal, Spain negotiated the control over Gibraltar with Britain. Britain also agree for in on no choice basis.

These issues are big enough for the opposition in Britain to agitate. The opposition is making loud noises through out the nation against BREXIT deal. The cherry on the ice is that the ruling party does not have enough numbers to get qualified in the House of Commons with will also held on 11th Dec'18.

With these two incidents, it is anticipated that the market equilibrium will be jeopardise and it will create a wave of uncertainty for longer period.

You all are invited to please share your views on this.....

Rice Size Microchip

2018-11-19T10:14:00.004+05:30

Bloomberg article dated October 4, 2018, 2:30 PM GMT+5:30, has created a sensation in the world over security services, as reported ‘a rice size microchip for surveillance was found in China make Supermicro’s motherboards’ and almost all nations in the world procure electronic items manufactured in China.
It has first come in to the notice in 2015, when Amazon.com Inc. was evaluating ‘Elemental Technologies’ (Based in Portland-Ore). Elemental Technology fit nicely with Amazon’s government businesses, such as the highly secure cloud that Amazon Web Services (AWS) was building for the CIA, hence Amazon consider it as a potential acquisition. During Third party evaluation, the testers found a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, that wasn’t part of the boards’ original design. The chips had been inserted at factories run by manufacturing subcontractors in China. With this an another level of war by supply chain attack has initiated.
It is also noticed that a state-backed Chinese IC firm was in talks with government agencies to raise from 150 to 200 billion yuan (US$31.5 billion) for a second fund vehicle to invest in domestic chip companies, as China continues its quest to become leader in the industry. The Investment will target areas ranging from processor design and manufacturing to chip testing and packaging, potentially benefiting industry leaders such as Huawei and ZTE, as well as Tsinghua Group. And it is a known fact that China's Huawei and ZTE have been banned from providing 5G technology equipment to Australia, citing national security concerns.
There is one more angle to this issue, why Elemental Technologies is targeted? The Answer lies in the function of Elemental Technologies; Back in 2006, three engineers in Oregon had a clever idea. Demand for mobile video was about to explode, and they predicted that broadcasters would be desperate to transform programs designed to fit TV screens into the various formats needed for viewing on smartphones, laptops, and other devices. To meet the anticipated demand, the engineers started Elemental Technologies. The resulting software dramatically reduced the time it took to process large video files. Elemental servers sold for as much as $100,000 each, at profit margins of as high as 70 percent, according to a former adviser to the company.
Elemental also started working with American spy agencies. In 2009 the company announced a development partnership with In-Q-Tel Inc., the CIA’s investment arm, a deal that paved the way for Elemental servers to be used in national security missions across the U.S. government. Public documents, including the company’s own promotional materials, show that the servers have been used inside Department of Defence data centres to process drone and surveillance-camera footage, on Navy warships to transmit feeds of airborne missions, and inside government buildings to enable secure videoconferencing. NASA, both houses of Congress, and the Department of Homeland Security have also been customers. This portfolio made Elemental a target for foreign adversaries.
Is this only a theory or reality? still a big question, but no one can deny that if this is true than China has already an edge over majority of the nations. Here let’s discuss the potential damages if it is true.

1.01 Extent of Chinese Products
China is the largest export economy in the world. In 2016, China exported $2.27 Trillion which is 14.2% of the total world Export ($15.99 Trillion). The top exports of China are Computers ($173B), Broadcasting Equipment ($160B), Telephones ($109B), Integrated Circuits ($64.6B) and Office Machine Parts ($42.8B) etc. The top export destinations of China are the United States ($436B), Hong Kong ($250B), Japan ($148B), Germany ($99B) and South Korea ($87.2B).
China borders Afghanistan, Bhutan, Hong Kong, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, North Korea, Tajikistan, Vietnam and Russia by land and Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan by sea.
China, which by some estimates makes 75 percent of the world’s mobile phones and 90 percent of its PCs, have the access to install surveillance device in the goods.
1.02 Strength of China
• China's rise since the start of the era of reform in 1978, has certainly been exceptional. In 1976 the country totalled 1% of the world's economy; today it represents more than 7%, with growth forecasts taking it in some cases to 20% in 2025 (the European Union would then total 21%, as the USA).
• It is now the world's leading export and manufacturing power, having overtaken the USA in 2010 from a quantitative point of view (productivity remaining well below that of the USA).
• China has a billion people with one of the world’s highest average IQs and the largest economy (in terms of PPP) in the world.
• According to experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies - the IISS - in London, it is China and no longer Russia, that increasingly provides the benchmark against which Washington judges the capability requirements for its own armed forces.
• The US-based National Science Board, that advises the President and Congress on science and engineering policy issues, says that China is now decisively the second-largest performer of research and development.
• China has developed the world’s largest amphibious aircraft, AG600, with four turboprop engines, it can draw on-board 12 tons of water within 20 seconds, with a maximum take-off weight of 53.5 tons.
• Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST), or Tianyan, is the world's largest of its kind. It is 10 times more sensitive than the steerable 100-meter telescope near Bonn, Germany.
• Chinese make supercomputer, was announced as the winner of the 2016 ACM Gordon Bell Prize in Salt Lake City on Nov 17, 2016. The prize is known as the equivalent of the Nobel Prize for the field of high-performance computing applications.
1.03 Potential Threats
The computers manufactured/assembled in China are working in almost all private/government offices, which could be traced and monitored.
At the time of war, foreign influence in electronic equipment could be a strategic advantage.
In the last three years, no commercially viable way is available to detect attacks like the one on Supermicro’s motherboards (if it is so) has emerged.
I am under fear while writing this as even my computer could have a bug, which could affect me. Please share your fear or strength as well....
Bibliography
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies
2. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/
3. http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-10-exports/
4. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2016_e/WTO_Chapter_09_tables_e.pdf
5. https://www.quora.com/Is-China-a-potential-threat-to-the-West-including-Australia
6. https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/0235-china-s-strengths-and-weaknesses
7. http://elementtechnologies.net/risk-and-security
8. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016latestscientficachievements/index.html
9. http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-drive-microchip-self-sufficiency-picks-steam/
10. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/23/huawei-and-zte-banned-from-selling-5g-equipment-to-australia.html

Modi’s Master Stroke (#MMS)

2018-11-19T10:14:00.001+05:30

As 2019 elections are approaching, all the political parties are getting active. All non NDA groups are aligning for a common cause & NDA projecting their achievements to get the second term. We all know that upcoming election will be one of the toughest fights for #modishah to win. To ensure the win they must have a winning strategy but to my understanding #modishah has already played their card to win the next Lok Sabha election.
Indian diplomacy is setting an example for all the nations especially for Turkey and China as India has managed to sign two important defense pact with two old rivalry countries: COMCASA with USA in Indo-US 2+2 Dialogue and high-tech S-400 missile defense system, during a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A good diplomat can understand that these pacts complement each other and maintained strategic relations with both Russia & USA. But #MMS lies in the pact signed in the month of Oct’2018 with Iran for supply of Crude oil.
For those who are not aware that - USA has imposed economic and political sanctions on Russia, Iran & North Korea as per US law called CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act), which also discourage other countries from buying Russian weapons, Iranian Oil & any economic activity with North Korea. Under same act Washington is constantly threatening Turkish administration to pull out the deal of S400 with Russia and has even imposed sanctions on China recently for procuring 10 Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles from Russia.
Now, Trump administration to choose between punishing New Delhi (and destroy the defense relationship) OR granting India an exemption, weakening the effect of the sanctions and opening up the US to accusations of favouritism. India is also not yet immune from CAATSA, but US administration would definitely be considering various aspects such as:

India provides a strategic advantage to counter Chinese influence in Indian ocean region.
Indian borders are very disturbed that makes India a big buyer of defense equipment.
Imposition of sanctions would lead to pushing India to join hand with Russia and China, that makes a very strong opponent to US and EU nations.
Sanctions could also affect COMCASA pact.

All these considerations would have stopped Washington to initiate the process of sanctions on India but still the fear of sanction is not washed out. Under the clouds of sanction, New Delhi has signed a pact with Iran for supply of crude oil. Now the question arises, what so luring about Iranian Oil?

Iran Oil comes with a lot of profitable deals such as:

India can pay in rupees for Iranian oil from November (after cut-off date in CAATSA).
Iranian Oil Company provides 60 days of credit for purchases. The credit term is not available from suppliers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, and USA.
Iranian crude is bought on a CIF basis and shipped on Iranian tankers. Under Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) mode of shipping, the seller assumes the responsibility of transportation and insurance.
New Delhi also thinking for barter system, by supplying goods including wheat, soya-bean meal and consumer products to Iran in exchange for oil.
Iran is India's third-largest oil supplier behind Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

India had planned to import about 25 million tonnes of crude oil from Iran in the current fiscal, up from 22.6 million tonnes imported in 2017-18. This act will definitely upset the Trump Administration. As I understand Trump’s America First policy, he may not further take lenient view towards India. US would have initiated the process of sanction on India but the process will take time and could only be imposed after 2-3 months (i.e. February).
Here the master stroke (#MMS) comes: the sanction in the month of February, (2 months before the lok sabha election) will definitely affect the public sentiments. Country’s patriotism will be on its highest peak and could be channelized in the favor of NDA, as Iran oil will help Indian administration to reduce the Petrol/Diesel price.
Now the question comes to your mind would be: Are these sanctions bad for Indian Economy? Did Modi govt. played a gamble on Indian growth?
These could be answered by viewing the historical facts such as:

The sanction imposed on China was limited to Chinese army and related personals.
US’s CAATSA has provision to reduce the extent of sanction based on the merit of case.
After imposition of sanction on China and Iran, negligible impact on domestic stock market was observed.

India is an emotional country and the public sentiments can be directed into a specific domain if they find belief in a leader which #modishah is good at. Now I have an unanswered question for you "Whether political parties should use public sentiments for political gain?"
Bibliography

India’s Future Fortune

2018-11-19T09:14:00.002+05:30

India could be the next blue eyed nation for electronic industry all over the world and this can happen over a decade. You must be thinking, Why is it so? It has many aspects to understand, let’s take them one by one.
Today’s China is the biggest manufacturing market in electronic industry, all over the world, and also known as the world’s factory, but this was not true in Twentieth century. In 1980s India’s Electronic export was more than that of China. Both India & China were almost at the same platform but China takeoff from there and never look back.
In 1980s Industries in US and Europe were scaling up and looking to develop facilities around the world to reduce their production cost. As in Europe and US, the labour rates were high as 12-15$ per hour however, in Africa, India & China the labour charges were much lower. Also the establishment in Africa was much riskier than that of in India or China.
As India was a young nation that time, the leadership was not very open to invite foreign players and Indian economy was also not very liberal. There were much red-tapism and business environment was also not very acquainted for foreign players to do the business.
In the contrary, China welcomes all the investors with both the hands. China facilitates them by creating 4 very large size Special Economic zones. China has also subsidies the raw materials for manufacturing industry. These were the main reasons for manufacturing sector development in China.
But in today’s world the standard of living has grown up and the expertise cost more to manufacturing industry in China. Manufacturing giants are on hunt to identify an appropriate location for adding their capacity outside China. Moreover the sanctions on China and deteriorating relationship with US are the biggest concern for big industrialists to establish/extend the manufacturing facility.
A last nail to the coffin was #rice size microchip found in China manufactured motherboards. The micro chip is suspected to be a surveillance device, introduced by Chinese intelligence, in Electronic goods (especially Computers). There electronic goods are now in use by many government agencies across the world.
India can encash the opportunity and attract the big players under Make in India banner. There are many initiatives taken by GOI such as special Electronic policy, Special Corridor for Investors etc. But it’s a long way to go ahead. I am very hopeful that from a projected electronic market of $1200 billion (Specially Artificial Intelligence) India can target $400 Billion +. This will boost the Indian economy and produce over 10 lakh employment in next 10 years.

Environment Minister must think off

2010-04-29T18:00:00.000+05:30

To
Ministry of Environment
India
Sir/Madam,

This is for your kind information that one of the biggest problems in India is waste Material.
Our present solution is dumping the waste material in to the rivers and Oceans.
We need to think all over again and come up with some feasible and strict solution.

My Suggestion: "Waste Management Credit" each and every state has to maintain its waste Management credit status, in which each state is bound to go for Eco friendly material as well as what all waste is produced is to be recycled or to be use in power generation and state will gain credits for the same.

For State: State should divide their load of Waste Management Credit on Industrial sector and general people at the cost of Tax benefits.

I must not say that Ministry is ignorant to this topic but i have presented my idea, Kindly do the needful.

Thanking You

Citizen of India
Ankit Goyal

To Telecom industry

2010-03-24T16:02:00.000+05:30

To
Telecom Companies
India
Sir,

I, as a user, have an Idea for your company to implement.

Reserve recharge (RR): It is quite clear from its name. RR should be available in each and every mobile recharge shop and very easy to recharge. Customer will get a recharge confirmation via text Mesg. but his actual balance will not increase. The validity of RR should be unlimited and a customer should be free to use it any time at any place just doing a simple SMS (for e.g. "RFRR-200" here RFRR- recharge from RR) at that moment the customer will get a top up of same amount within 15 min.
Major Advantages:
1. Recharge ease for customers.
2. Company can improve its cash in Hand in their Balance sheet.
If this Idea is implementable and suitable to your system kindly apply.

Regards
Ankit Goyal
(A Mobile user)
goyal.ankit.86@gmail.com

Personality Value Index

2010-01-17T15:39:00.000+05:30

Introduction : It is the value of a person which fans of a person will decide and that value will float in the market as stocks shares in BSE or NSE
Eg: Mr. A is listed in PVISE at a base price say Rs 10 (Set by PVISE committee) and 100 shares are opened for the market purchase as IPO. In Place of dividend Some value from earnings of that person will be distributed among stake holders.
All rules remain same as they are for general listed companies in BSE/NSE/etc.
Advantages: 1. Liquidity of money increases
2. A Big celebrity will not suffer at the time of down fall as Mr Amitabh Suffers
3. A big opportunity for a common man to grow.
4. It will increase Employment opportunities.

If anyone is interested/inspired pls contact me on my email id goyal.ankit.86@gmail.com