Life after Maldini

April's fool

2012-04-24T01:40:00.001-07:00

You are missing the enthusiastic stream of posts on this blog? Of course you are. Here is why they have been missing - the games of ÖSK, Milan and Spurs over the past three weeks. Not that things were great before that - Spurs have been showing bad form ever since i wrote a jinxing post on 12 January, shortly before they drew Wolves at home and then losing against City in that gruesome 3-2 game. Örebro's 2011 season and transfer season did not give us much hope for greatness, and Milan had already experienced those defining moments that usually indicate a loser season: the referee robbery of Muntari's goal against Juve, losing to Juve on extra time in the cup, having a season of injuries crowned by Thiago Silva being ruled out, missing the opportunity to put real pressure on Barcelona, reducing the Serie A lead to 2 points.

But still. I would have hoped for something better than this: 1 win. 5 draws. 7 losses. Dismissal from Champions League and the FA cup. Most likely losing a title battle that was ours. Most likely losing a Champions League spot that was ours. And parking at the bottom of the Swedish league. Happy days.

2 April: Örebro SK-Åtvidaberg 3-4. Opening game of the season. Four goals conceded in the first half.
3 April: Barcelona-Milan 3-1. So. That was the Champions League.
7 April: Mjällby-Örebro SK 0-0
7 April: Sunderland-Tottenham 0-0
7 April: Milan-Fiorentina 1-2. Low point of the season. And suddenly Juve takes the lead by one point.
9 April: Tottenham-Norwich 1-2. Low point of the season. Great chance to take initiative in the CL battle lost. Was planning to be there with my wife. Glad I didn't go (it rained, too)
10 April: Chievo-Milan 0-1. A win! Against the run of play, they say (didn't see it)
11 April Örebro SK-Helsingborg 0-0
15 April: IFK Göteborg-Örebro SK 2-2. Late equaliser from the home team (and actually an erroneously disallowed home team winner during stoppish time).
15 April: Tottenham-Chesea 1-5. So. That was the FA cup.
21 April: QPR-Tottenham 1-0. The Champions League qualification suddenly seems very distant.
22 April: Milan-Bologna 1-1. Last minute equaliser. The scudetto suddenly seems very distant
23 April: Örebro SK-Elfsborg 0-2. Örebro is now last in the league of 16 and the only team without a win.

Who's your father, camera man?

2012-04-17T08:56:00.000-07:00

More than half of any half time analysis and post-game wrap ups and articles these days evolve around controversial or - more often - plain erroneous referee calls.

This has to end. Everyone said their piece, here is mine.

Of course technical aids should be used in order to help referees make the right calls. Of course this may be done without destroying the pace and rythm of the game and with appropriate checks and balances against abuse.

Here's what I would like to do. (And never mind if all this cannot be done at all levels of the football game. Fair for more is better than unfair for all. And let's face it, the discussions we hear are mostly about football at a level where the cost of technical equipment will be minimal.)

Goal cameras now. All goals should be approved by a supervisor. This will only take a second in 90% of the cases, in others it is worth waiting a bit longer. If we can have a chip in the ball that tells us when the ball has crossed the line, great, let's do that too.
Make all players wear a chip that indicates to the linesmen (and to no one else) when a player is offside. That way the linesmen can focus on when the ball is played and whether the offside player took part in the play (the latter however is mostly a call for the head ref). One very important parameter less to leave to the human eye.
Give all teams two challenges per half. The coach and the captain of the team can make the challenge, and the supervisor has 45 seconds to review the call (which will be added to stoppish time), using the best evidence available. The supervisor may also during that time consult the referee.
A successful challenge does not count. If a red card is challenged and changed to a yellow (for example), that counts as a successful challenge.
If a player or a coach approaches the referee after a call (or the lack thereof), the referee should ask the captain whether that should be interpreted as a challenge. If the captain does not confirm immediately, the player approaching the referee will be cautioned if he continues to challenge the referees decision.
The yellow card for diving is abandoned. Instead, much more severe bans are handed out subsequently, and according to a progressive scale.
The technical aids are always for consultation only. Humans will always make the final call.
Scrap that idea with penalty box referees. Invest that money in technical equipment instead.

I only struggle with one situation. When a goal chance is interrupted by a whistle, the attacking team challenges and wins - what is the remedy? I imagine these situations to relate to offsides in 90%. The best I can come up with is that first, the offside calls should improve with technical aids. Moreover, with goal reviews and challenges referees should feel comfortable not to call offsides unless they are absolutely sure (that should be the yardstick anyway). But still, it will happen from time to time, and the best I can come up with is that in those situations there should be a freekick from where the pass was made. Not perfect, admittedly, but better than what we have today.

Himmel and Himmel only über Malmö

2012-03-27T23:34:00.000-07:00

I know, there's a big game on tonight. Trying to keep focus elsewhere to live through the day. Like the Swedish league, which is about to start and where I have not been very good at updating you. It is actually already time to submit predictions. Here are mine:

1. Malmö FF. The best squad. Got a taste of Europe last year and are now dying to get back there.
2. Helsingborgs IF. Defending champions never win in Sweden. But Helsingborg is a big challenger. Important that Walid Atta does well in central defense. If Mahlangu continues like last year he will be gone by summer but Helsingborg have been good at replacing sold players.
3. Elfsborgs IF. We all look forward to what Viktor Claesson can do. Big question mark for the defense.
4. Kalmar FF. Bouncing back after a few off years with a strong squad.
5. IFK Göteborg. Don't believe the hype. Too many new players to have the consistency needed to fight for the title.
6. AIK. Rarely do two good seasons in a row.
7. Örebro SK. A long way up from the deep hole they fell into last season. A brand new midfield that needs to work, a slow central defense could make the whole idea of how Örebro should play vulnerable.
8. Gais. Celik or no Celik? Irrespective of that, Gais could surprise any team.
9. BK Häcken. Solid. Boring.
10. Gefle IF. Perhaps a bit overrated after years of the opposite? But a strong offensive line-up.
11. IFK Norrköping. Will be more stable this year.
12. Åtvidabergs FF. Think ÅFF could be off to a good start but can't see them last.
13. Djurgårdens IF. Many new players, not so sure if they are that good.
14. Mjällby AIF. A downward trend. A new central midfield.
15. GIF Sundsvall. Will have a tough time although that guy Skulason looks pretty good.
16. Syrianska SK. Too many good players lost. Hard to see them survive this.

Whatcho think?

2012-03-14T01:55:00.000-07:00

MLS under way, and I take the opportunity to ask you lot for help to my favourite blogger who, in Swedish, it trying to list Americans from popular culture (note: no sportsmen or sportswomen) with clear and sincere symphaties for a football club, be it an MLS club, a European club or whatever.

This is the list so far, please comment on it, add and remove

Drew Carey – Seattle Sounders
Samuel L Jackson – Liverpool
Michael Moore – Arsenal
Sylvester Stallone – Everton
Elijah Wood – West Ham
Spike Lee – Arsenal
Dr Dre – Liverpool
Renée Zellweger – Chelsea
Julia Stiles – New York Red Bulls
Linkin' Park – Chicago Fire
Owen Wilson – Chelsea
Freddie Prinze Jr – LA Galaxy
Dave Grohl – West Ham
Justin Timberlake – Man United
Busta Rhymes – Chelsea
Tom Hanks – Aston Villa
Kevin Costner – Arsenal
Brad Pitt – Liverpool
Will Ferrell – Ipswich
Jay-Z – Arsenal
Matt Damon – Arsenal
Ray Liotta – Spurs
Cameron Diaz – Brentford
James Woods – Brentford
Jim Carrey – Brentford
Wyclef Jean – New York Red Bulls
Jon Stewart – New York Red Bulls
Robert Duvall – Boca Juniors
Eva Longoria – Chivas

Zuperman and Kryptonite

2012-02-10T07:47:00.000-08:00

On Monday Sweden will announce its squad for the friendly against Croatia. The last squad before the Euro 2012 squad. Super-John Guidetti has recently completed back-to-back hat tricks for Feynoord against Twente and rivals Ajax and his tally is now 14 goals in 14 games, and quite a few assists on top of that. 19 year-old Guidetti's success reawakens the main discussion point around the Swedish national team over the last year: why is Sweden better without Zlatan? Should Zlatan even play as we seem to be doing better without him?

Let me state my piece.

Stats are pretty clear; Sweden performs better when Zlatan is not playing. This has split the debate in two factions. Faction one (at least in my mind primarily represented by those who usually represent small-town narrow-mindedness and short-sightedness in general) want to sack Zlatan from the team. Faction 2 says Zlatan is our best player so he should play regardless of anything.

Why don't we, Moneyball-style, have a careful look at those stats? First, which stats are relevant?

What has been the apparent problem with Sweden with Zlatan on the pitch? In random order, he has (i) looked pretty disgusted by the random runs and passes by certain teammates and expressed that disgust in sometimes harsh language, (ii) looked uninspired and out of sync in the pressing game after losing possession and (iii) shot a truckload of freekicks in the ban wall. Why is this and how do we correct it? The latter is maybe the easiest. With Sebastian Larsson, Kim Källström, Andersson Svensson and Rasmus Elm on the team Zlatan better bend it like he did against Cagliari or not take them at all.

The first two are a bit trickier and here is where we should look more carefully at the stats. Sweden under Erik Hamrén play what he refers to as 4-2-3-1 but what in my world is a pretty classic 4-4-2 where one striker is supposed to fall a bit deeper (the number 10) and one be more of a fox-in-the-box (the number 9). Zlatan has declared that he should be the number 9 although he is by quite some distance our best passing player. Hamrén has so far met this request.

I have tried to make sense out of the 21 games Sweden have played under Hamrén (excluding the January caps), looking at Sweden's performance (grading 1-5), whether Zlatan played, who else played up front, whether we played home or away, whether it was a qualifyer or a friendly and of course the result.

From a first glance, this comes out:

Sweden's average performance (according to me) is 3.10.
Sweden's performance with Zlatan is indeed worse, 2.83 versus 3.44 without him
But Sweden is also worse with Elmander playing (3.0 irrespective if we take into account the games he played as a winger or not)
Looking at individuals, Sweden is at its best with Toivonen playing (3.42 and then I am still not counting him as playing in the Finland game where Zlatan substituted him due to an early injury)

Looking a bit more on the game of games we played:

There is a huge difference between home games and away games. Sweden have been great at home (7 wins, 1 draw against Germany, no defeats, a goal difference of 24-5 and av average performance at 4.0). This is to compare with the away games where we have won seven and lost five (and drawn that neutral game against Ukraine in Cyprus). The average performance is at 2.5

What about that Zlatan then?

He started of pretty well. He had a good 2010 apart from the game against Holland when the entire Swedish team was unbalanced, and continued well in 2011 and peaked this spring against Finland. At that point, Sweden with Zlatan had an average performance of 3.43. It is really in the last five games that Sweden in general and Zlatan in particular have been lame.
So Sweden has been lame in five out of the last six and brilliant in the sixth (against Holland) and the Holland game was the only one where Zlatan did not play. Zlatan's fault then? Could be, but remember what I said about home games versus away games above. Holland we played at home, the other games were away games. And the combination of Zlatan on the pitch and playing away has been awful. At home, when half the crowd is cheering more for Zlatan than for Sweden, Zlatan has not been bad at all. That points to motivation (or lack thereof, rather) being Zlatan's kryptonite
But what about Zlatan's buddy up front? Zlatan has played seven games with Elmander as his up-front partner. The average is not very good, 2.57 with the best performance being Zlatan's solo show against Finland. The only really good connect between the two we saw for a second in Cyprus against Ukraine, resulting in a great goal
In the other five games, Zlatan has played with Toivonen. The two have performed above average together, at 3.2. Apart from the horrid performance against Holland, Sweden has also been pretty effective with the pair up front (goal difference of 15-0 but 11 of those scored against San Marino)
But. In four of those five games, Elmander has still started, as a winger. Zlatan has thus only played one game under Hamrén without Elmander, at home in the comfortable 6-0 win against San Marino.

So what are the conclusions here?

Sweden performs better without Zlatan when playing away
Zlatan and Sweden performs better when Zlatan plays with Toivonen than when he plays with Elmander
No other Zlatan options have been tested, and Zlatan has almost never played without Elmander on the pitch.

If Superman would always have had kryptonite in his pockets he probably would never have disovered his super powers. Lack of motivation may be one thing, but I believe it makes sense for Hamrén to test Zlatan without Elmander before the Euro 2012. For the friendly against Croatia I would like to see Hamrén start with Zlatan as number 10 and Guidetti as number 9, ask them to do 45 minutes but 45 intense minutes, with aggressive high pressure on the Croatian defense, and then let Toivonen/Elmander do the same in the second half. That's my piece.

Note to self

2012-01-24T01:55:00.000-08:00

Just saying that you are not jinxing is not an automatic get-out-of-jail card. I jinxed us.

We coulda been a contender

2012-01-12T05:04:00.000-08:00

I know that I might be jinxing things, but it is time to assess what Spurs are actually about to accomplish.

The five intensive rounds of Christmas Premier League football are long gone and if you make a minitable of those five rounds you will note that Spurs are top of the table with 11 points, and the only undefeated team. Manchester City managed to lose five points despite only conceding one goal and is second with 10 points, the team that defeated them, reawoken Sunderland are third also with 10 points. ManU started the Christmas period with three wins and a goal difference of 12-0, but two straight losses push them to the fouth spot. The four other top seven teams gained between 6 and 8 points.

Before we move the focus back to Spurs: in the 15 games before Christmas (14 for Spurs), the top 7 teams gained on average 2.08 points per game, whereas in the 5 Christmas rounds, the average was a mere 1.66. Why do the top teams with their superior width of squads suffer more than other teams from the tough Christmas schedule? If we would have muddy pitches and snow I would have bought the argument that Christmas football is haphazard and that physical football prevails, but does that apply when the weather has been mild? Are the big teams suffering from playing European games in the autumn? Not sure I buy that argument either, at least it does not apply to Liverpool and Newcastle.

Anyway, after a comfortable win over Everton yesterday finally banking the three points from the "game in hand" we had all season we cannot ignore facts. Spurs are level with Man U, save for goal difference. In January. The chasing teams are eight points or more behind. Our form is the best in the league. We may have a lot of tricky away games left this season (Gunners, Pool, City, Chealsea) but United are in the same position, plus we play them at home. And City is not what they were in the early season. Crucial players like Kompany (banned after a rediculous red) and Yaya (going to African Nations Cup) will be absent for a while and the match schedule for the next few weeks does not look easy.

I will not jinx us. I will not say that we are a title contender. But looking at facts only, it could look as if we were.

The powers that be

2012-01-11T01:02:00.000-08:00

Good old FIFA.

Player of the year: Messi (Barcelona). Runners up: Ronaldo (Real Madrid), Xavi (Bacelona)

Coach of the year: Guardiola (Barcelona). Runners up: Mourinho (Real Madrid), Ferguson (ManU).

World XI: Iker Casillas (Real Madrid) – Dani Alves (Barcelona), Gerard Pique (Barcelona), Nemanja Vidic (Manchester United), Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid) – Andres Iniesta (Barcelona), Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid), Xavi (Barcelona) – Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid), Wayne Rooney (Manchester United).

Champions League winner Barcelona first everywhere, followed by Champions League finalists Manchester United and Champions League semifinalists Real Madrid. After them: nothing.

FIFA's slogan is: “For the Game. For the World” and its mission statement: “Develop the game, touch the world, build a better future". To be honest, FIFA should add: "For the top three teams in Europe".

I know that it is not a FIFA panel that votes for these awards (national team coaches, captains and journalists do), but the centralization of club football focus is frightening. I am a libertarian. But my belief in liberty is only valid if founded on a somewhat level playing field. Diversity and competitiveness is what FIFA should strive for, not consolidation and confirmation of powers.

Title games 2012

2011-12-28T05:07:00.000-08:00

Although Barclay's Premier League will squeeze in another round of football before the end of the year, it is fair to say we have a very clear trend in the four biggest football leagues: the top is tighter than usual, but in the end it seems as if we will end up with four two-horse races between old rivals. Could be worse. So note down the following dates in your calendars, it is not a wild guess that whoever wins these games will win the league titles:

26 Feb: Milan-Juventus

Current standing:
1. Milan 34 points
2. Juve 34 points
3. Udinese 32 points

Autumn result: Juve-Milan 2-0.

Other title challengers: Hardly. Udinese and Lazio do not possess the squads to last a whole season, Inter and Roma are too far back and with tough schedules. Napoli have put focus on Champions League.

Comment: Juve under Conte are still unbeaten, they can spend the spring concentrating on the league and the game against Milan is the only away game against a top team: Juve plays at home against Udinese, Inter, Napoli, Lazio and Roma in the spring. On the other hand, Milan like an old train have finally starting to roll fast, score a lot of goals and have the Championship guarantee player Ibrahimovic. Although many game days will remain after this tie, the winner will be the big title favourite.

11 April: Dortmund-Bayern
Current standing:
1. Bayern 37 points
2. Dortmund 34 points
3. Schalke 34 points

Autumn result: Bayern-Dortmund 0-1

Other title challengers: Schalke cannot be ruled out. They are in it, and they play Dortmund at home just three days after this clash. But still - I am pretty sure Bayern and Dortmund will have ran away from Schalke before that.

Comment: Bayern had a match point in the November clash, but blew it. They may well have another one in April.

22 April: Barcelona-Real Madrid
Current standing:
1. Real Madrid 40 points
2. Barcelona 37 points
3. Sevilla 33 points

Autumn result: Real-Madrid-Barcelona 1-3

Other title challengers: yeah, right.

Comment: Always the decider? The big two have perhaps been a little little less dominant so far (Manchester City, Manchester United and Real have the exact same average points per game). Barcelona look like the team that will not get away with a draw this time, but they have a big big clasico upper hand.

28 April: Manchester City-Manchester United
Current standing:
1. Manchester City 45
2. Manchester United 45
3. Spurs 38 (with a game in hand)

Autumn result: United-City 1-6

Other title challengers: Spurs are closest. Spurs will not win.

Comment: After this game, only two league games remain. This has the potential to be the biggest Manchester derby of all times, and the 1-6 shocker from October, or Rooney over-head kicking away City's titles dreams 2010/2011 do not make it worse. Despite injuries, United show the best form and will need to gain an advantage during the Christmas period - they are looking at a very tough schedule 2012 with away games against Newclaste, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham (and a home game against Liverpool) between 4 January and 3 March. But United is United. City are looking more vulnerable now than earlier in the season, the goals do not come as easy, and are despite the strong squad very dependent on a few players (Hart, Kompany, Silva).

More balls on fire

2011-12-16T04:52:00.000-08:00

If the Champions League draw was comparatively dull, the Europa League draw was not. The first two draws drawn out of the hat were Porto-Man City and Ajax-United. The four biggest losers from the Champions League group stage clashing against each other straight away.

And on top of that, Porto or City will likely play Sporting ín the next round.

5 out of 8 English teams survived the group stage if you include the Manchester teams demoted to Europa League. Not a great result, but what next:
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Porto-City
Ajax-United
Stoke-Valencia

Wow. Hard to make up a tougher draw.

Other big games to look forward to are
Lazio-Atlectico
AZ-Anderlecht
A possible Liege-Brugge tie in the next round

Great Balls of Fire Part whatever

2011-12-16T03:33:00.000-08:00

Quick and dirty on the Champions League draw:

Lyon-APOEL
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Basel-Bayern München
Leverkusen-Barcelona
CSKA-Real
Zenit-Benfica
Marseille-Inter
Not one single draw that makes you lose your breath. Someone might have forgotten to heat up the balls. But 2xItaly against England sticks out. I think the English are more unhappy than the Italians over that, actually.

Pretty sure Leverkusen are kicking themselves for letting the group win slip. The three title favourites Bayern, Barca and Real are the only obvious quarter finalists, all other games remain open.

The two French sides that were almost out of the group stage now have decent chances of reaching the quarterfinal.

Now Europa League.

Cobi Span

2011-12-16T03:12:00.000-08:00

To my American followers: what can you tell me about Cobi Span? He is about to board a flight to Sweden.

Mourinhovember 1st quarter analysis

2011-11-18T06:48:00.000-08:00

Back to club football after the last break for international games for a while.

Is the club football season mature enough to have a first stab at evaluating what has happened so far?

Let's split the big teams in three groups, winners, losers and "jury still out". Of course, one could argue that the jury is still out on every team as we are in November, but you know what I mean.

Winners
1. Real Madrid. Has to go first on the list as they have secured both a perfect record in Champions League and a healthy lead in what I still call Primera Division, 3 points ahead of the impossible Barcelona and with a winning streak of 7 games with a rediculous goal difference of 29-4. Most difficult test in the league so far is awaiting this weekend, when they go to Mestalla to face Valencia followed by the derby the weekend after. But as always their autumn will be defined in the clasico clash, this year on 10 December.

2. Bayern München. Back as the king pin of German football, and with the most impressive Champions League performance so far in the thrashing of Manchester City. Despite a bit of shaky defending against Napoli, even that part of the game seems to work with Neuer in goal. Can more or less secure the league win if they beat B. Dortmund this weekend.

3. Manchester City. 10 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 6-1 at Old Trafford. 5-1 at White Hart Lane. If we look at league performance only, Manchester City is the team of the season so far. But far from as impressive in Champions League, they have to settle for third spot although the CL campaign was set on track with the so so important goal of Agüero in the first of the double encounters with Villareal. A splendid team indeed, but the absence of Kompany against QPR revealed that without him they are vulnerable.

4. Levante. If it comes to overachievement alone, of course at the top. A bunch of old men held the two giants for a quarter of the season, before now starting to fall back. For what it is worth (and that is certainly not a lot), I predicted them to come in 19th this season. We enjoyed it while it lasted.

5. Udinese. I mean, Udinese always go on winning streaks and maybe Christmas just came early this year. Surely Udinese will fall back but nevertheless, what Papa Natale and his young little helpers have done, again, is truly impressive.

6. Newcastle. Unbeaten in the Premiership after 11 rounds should perhaps render a higher position, but we have to wait a little bit before we pronounce the success of Newcastle United. They have only played two or the stronger teams yet, resulting in draws against a hampered Arsenal (0-0) on the opening day, and with a later equalizer also against Spurs, 2-2. Both those games were played at home. In the next three rounds NUFC will face Manchester City away, Manchester United away and Chelsea at home. If they are still in the Champions League qualification domain after those games, we have to start taking them seriously. Chances are they won't be.

7. Lazio. I actually thought they had it in them, with Cisse and Klose in front of Hernanes. So no big surprise, but an elegant chapeau nevertheless.

8. Paris SG. After all my Leonardo bashing, maybe I should send a word of respect. You got your bigs signings in order quickly. But I maintain that Leo is not the coach that will consistently win the big games. Ever.

9. Mönchengladbach. The closest you get to Levante, in the tougher and more even Bundesliga. But more of a team for the future.

10. AZ Alkmaar. Dominating Eredivisie. And as we expect Rasmus Elm to dominate the Swedish midfield in the future, supported by Wernbloom where necessary, we are extra pleased.

Others worth a little nod of recognition at least: Glasgow Rangers (already champions), Anderlecht (doing a Real Madrid but Belgium/Europa League is not quite the same as Spain/Champions League), Apoel Nicosia (fantastic Champions League spell, but too many points lost domestically to justify a top 10 spot)

Losers
1. Inter. Possibly Ranieri is in the process of putting things right, but after a nosedive induced by Benitez, reinforced by Leonardo and going absolutely vertical under Gasperini Inter has a bumpy route back to normal. And Inter should not take for granted they will get there anytime soon.

2. Villareal. Am I being unfair against the yellow submarines? They were minutes away from getting a point at Manchester City, not many teams can say that. But 0 points in the Champions League and what could be a struggle to avoid relegation in la liga is no good.

3. Hamburger SV. Have also started to recover, but any idea of qualifying for Europe was gone just a few weeks into the season. For a team of HSV's size that is no good.

4. Arsenal. Yet another team on route to recovery, and some could even say an impressive recovery after losing Nasri and Fabregas arond the starting weeks of the Premiership. But from another respective, what are Arsenal doing? If Spurs can hold on to Modric, of course Wenger could have held on to Nasri. If it was in his mind to let him go, he should have planned for it. If it was not, it is an immense sign of weakness. He has many strengths though, one has to admit, but this weakness could cost Arsenal a Champions League spot and things will be an uphill struggle from there. Arsenal cannot be the team of the future forever.

5. Bourdeaux. Biggest losers last season, but they still linger on there.

Others worth noting. Bröndby. Must hurt being a Bröndby supporter these days although FC Köpenhavn are not the same with the overrated Roland Nilsson.

The jury is still out
This could be a long list. But to mention some, in order of size and expectation, I suppose:

Barcelona. You can't afford losing many points in la Liga, and Barcelona are now in a place where they may not afford losing to Real in December. But after Milan's hick-up in Borisov, a draw in Milan should be enough to win the Champions League group.
Manchester United. Winning 8-2 against Arsenal, but losing 1-6 at home to City. An uninspired start to Champions League, but still doing what's required.
Chelsea. The jury is really still out here, as Chelsea under Vilas-Boas occasionally have flexed muscles but never impressed when they really needed to use them. In the big games, they have lost to United away (3-1) at to Arsenal at home (3-5), and drawn away to Valencia (1-1). Biggest win so far is 2-0 at home to Leverkusen, who has not impressed anyone.
Milan. A bad start in the league and without the late equalizer against Barcelona and media focus on the even more miserable starts by Inter and Roma, there would have been crisis talks in September. But now on a winning streak in the league, in range of the top and qualified for Champions League knock-out stages, Milan can look forward.
Tottenham. A soft start including losing on penalties in the League cup, having the first league game cancelled due to riots and then losing two to Manchester United and City 8-1 on aggregate. Leaving aside the junior squad that Redknapp sends to the Europa League, Spurs have actually been fantastic since then, with 7 wins and 1 draw in the league and from time to time producing football that should take them back to the Champions League.
Juventus. Are in a good place, performing better then expected and crowning that with prestige wins against Milan and Inter.

Great Balls of Fire III

2011-11-16T04:26:00.000-08:00

Seedings for Euro 2012 are now definite.

Here are the seeding pots:
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland

For Sweden, there are 4 teams to avoid: Spain and the Netherlands from pot 1, primarily Spain, Germany from pot 2 and France from pot 4. Anything avoiding all those must be considered a dream draw, without saying that a group of for example Italy, Ukraine and Denmark would be easy. What is the chance of that? If there are no hot and cold balls in the draw, it should be about 28%.

The toughest possible group on paper seems to be Spain, Germany, Portugal and France. That would be something else.

The easiest: Poland, Russia, Sweden (?) and the Czechs. Let's hope that happens.

In my dream world, I would like to see:

Group A
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Czech Republic

Angry rivals steal points from each other and Sweden thus has a good chance of evening winning the group with, say, 5 points. If we do, I have a ticket to that quarterfinal and that matters.

Group B
Holland
England
Greece
Ireland

OK possible quarterfinal opposition for Sweden. And of course we want an England-Ireland clash.

Group C
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France

Too tempting. Every game with a chance of becoming a classic.

Group D
Ukraine
Italy
Croatia
Denmark

Can we pretend that airplanes on the night sky are shooting stars?

2011-11-03T02:53:00.000-07:00

We could really use a bunch of wishes right now.

Here's my wish list for Örebro SK's midseason work, in order of preference. For transfers, I opt not to mention specific names but rather the types of players we need as I cannot claim to know the huge worldwide market of football players. I don't Örebro's management has that knowledge either, but they should beat me here.

1. Sort out the losing mentality, declare 2012 the year of revenge and make Nordin captain. I have been quite exhaustive here before, let's not develop further.

2. Contract two good goalkeepers. High on the list as we have lost one and fired one. Goes without saying that we need to do something about that. As a true örebroer, and on top of that from Adolfsberg, Oscar Jansson is a romantic wish. But I think we need two that are good enough to play at a high level.

3. Find a Bedoya carbon copy. Örebro SK is not the same without an effective, non-stop box-to-box runner. I would ultimately want to see a Bedoya type player who is even stronger in man-to-man situations. Bedoya was fairly effective but had a tendence of getting a yellow card in every game, one more often two of them than zero.

4. Develop the youth section. Örebro's youths had a terrible year, and will now probably close down their operations. Fair enough, better to have a top notch under 21 team than a team struggling in the 5th tier or whatever it would be next season. Players like Kalle Holmberg (who should get a decent amount of A team minutes next season) form a basis for a top team. Add local talents to that group, make this team the go to team for all football talents within a range of 150 kilmetres and we can have something here.

5. Find a central defender that combines with Wikström. Someone with speed, ok feet, a high lowest level and a winning mentality. Think Mellberg (Örebro is not far away from his hometown but of course I'm dreaming here).

6. A purely defensive midfielder. I want Berger, Gerzic and the box-to-box player that is number 3 on this list to be the starting line up. But we should not underestimate the value of having a purely defensive midfielder, with experience, that we can through in when we want to defend a lead. Berger is a great talent but still needs to win more balls. That is why we need to find a box-to-box player that have defensive skills as well, but we need one more because let's face it - we don't have many midfielders left after selling Bedoya, retiring Nordback and Kihlberg and in other ways disposing of Nilsson and I guess also Skoglund.

7. Replace the "ball-striking coach" we have with a talent developer. The dream choice here is Benny Lennartsson. Give him freedom to work with a few players: Berger's defensive and man-to-man game, Gerzic leadership role, Rama's positional play and cooperation with Bedoya. Details that could mean so much. Lennartsson is also a great motivational coach.

What else do we need? A central attacker? I don't know, if we can find alternative ways of playing I think Holmberg could step in as a complement to the so often injured Haddad and Atashkadeh.

A full back? I will not join the group that says Wowoah is finished. He had an off season, but part of that was bad cooperation with the egocentric Valdet Rama. Hopefully ÖSK can work on this over the next few months. And Per Johansson is an alternative here. To the right, we have Antonnen hopefully coming back, if we get another central defender both Haginge and Eidur could be complements both centrally and on the right.

Who do we say goodbye to? We know that Alvbåge, Kihlberg, Nordback, Rosendahl, Leonidsson and Lumbana will leave the squad (as did earlier Almebäck, Bedoya and Nilsson), and it seems pretty sure that ÖSK will not proceed with the loans/short term contracts of Riski and Brunet.

On top of that, I would be surprised to see Skoglund come back, Staaf looks certain to go, and I'm not sure which roles Wirtanen should play either.

Assuming all these go, we have a squad right now consisting of:

One keeper (plus 2 on my wish list)
Six defenders, three primarily central, three fullbacks, with one more central defender on the wish list)
Three midfielders (with two more on the wish list. Per Johansson can also fill in if necessary, and Paulinho can cover for Gerzic)
Nine strikers, pretty much three for each position. No need to add to that list, I say.

With me wish list completed, that would leave us with a squad of 24 men, but still a pretty thin midfield (also given the Abdulahi has not shown much). Should we get Nilsson back? Or sign another youngster?

Suggestions welcome

...so why don't you kill me?

2011-10-31T02:34:00.000-07:00

Season over för Örebro SK. We're in hell right now, gentlemen. Believe me. And, we can stay here, get the shit kicked out of us, or we can fight our way back into the light.

The final game was a succint, cruel, summary of this anno horribilis.

I am not thinking of the pre-game injury of Valdet Rama. And not on the tentative goalkeeping on the opening goal.

Three things in the second half really exposed what kind of team Örebro SK is 2011.

The neat passing game that made us dominate the game up until the penalty box, where no one seemed interested to make runs, to shoot, to do anything put keep on passing the ball.
The inevitable counterattack where Alvbåge slips and the ball bounces off the shin of Haginge and into the goal.
The beautiful, speedy, one-two and the lethal finish from Paulinho at a moment when the game was already lost.

I am sure you have all noticed that a team on a losing streak seems to have less luck. Freak goals conceded on stoppish time, strange penalty decisions against them, badly timed injuries, and more than anything what seems to be an invisible force preventing the ball from finiding the back of the net.

It's not supernatural. A ball gets deflected many times during a football game. A player with a mind set to win does not question a deflection: he acts upon the opportunity, or, if he is a defender in the penalty box, he gets rid of the ball. On the contrary: when Haginge saw Alvbåge slip on Saturday, and the ball bouncing towards his shin, I bet he had time to think: "Oh no, he is slipping, what if the ball slips through now and I can't control it. I can't score an owngoal now, then the season is over". I'm sure he would not admit it, he may not have any noticed it, but he did. Patrik, it's your cowardice that holds you frozen, not the Gorgon's power.

The ÖSK attacking game showed the same lack of killer instrinct, the same sort of loser mentality. I want to see an ÖSK team where every player when attacking is confident that his team will score. Therefore, he runs, he looks for positions from which to shoot, he feels creative.

Örebro SK under Sixten Boström, let's face it, has learnt how to pass and control the ball, but always had a tendency of becoming static around the penalty box. But this season, they are not only static. They are undetermined. The fear of missing overwins the hunger to score.

It is only where there is nothing to play for that Paulinho suddenly mixes cool with creativity and scores one of the best goals of the season.

Because when this team can relax and play with confidence, there is no team in Sweden that is naturally a better team. This years squad was one of the best we ever had, and certainly a squad strong enough to challenge for the title.

Our fans are currently ranging against everything and everyone. The players are crap, the coach is crap, the club management is crap.

I'm sure there is some merit in lots of the criticism but before the kickstart the chainsaw, let's try and analyze the situation. Let's try not to forget that essentially these players, this coach and this management is what brought Örebro from the dungeons of the second division and into a Europa League spot in 5 years or so.

Likewise, the way the club tries to blame everything on injuries and two sold players is nonsense. Of course it would have been easier if we had all our players available, but that does not explain how we lost nine leads in 30 games. It does not explain why Marcus Astvald, last year an Under 21 international, on the year he should have his big break through, looks like the football pitch is the last place he wants to be.

So what is it? How do we fight our way back into the light?

There are technical aspects we need to work on, for sure (movement, lads!) and with two players sold and two retired we need to do a bit of squad rebuilding, in particular in midfield.

But there is only one key aspect.

We have been lacking inspired leadership this season. Coach Boström, whatever you think of him, will not make his team eat nails in the dressing room. He is more of a technical director than a match coach. Either he needs an assistant coach that can make the players walk the extra mile, and do so with confidence, or he needs to find leadership on the pitch. I think the latter option is the right way to go.

If we look at the team today, the key players can be split in three groups:

The mercenaries: sold Bedoya, sold Almebäck, deserted Alvbåge, and those who are still there - Rama, Paulinho). They will never really care about us. But they want to win.
The loyal soldiers: Wikström, Kihlberg, Antonnen, Hagine, Astvald, Nordback, Wowoah. They are locals, they do care, but lack the charisma to be the leader of men
The bohemian: Nordin Gerzic.

It is in him, Nordin, that Boström should find his deputy. If I were Sixten, I would sit down with Nordin this week and say: "you are our best player, you are our most important player, and no player has a heart that pounds stronger for this club. Next season, we are taking you to the next level, and that means that you take Örebro SK to the next level. You will be the captain, and I want you to really encapsulate everything what a captain should be. If Valdet Rama is sloppy in the defensive press, if Astvald is hanging with his head, if Berger is hesitant in a tackle, if anyone is seen out drinkning beer to often, I want you to feel that that is your responsibility and I want you to let them know what you think of it. I want you to let them know that this is Örebro SK, and 2012 is the year we get our revenge."

If we see that kind of Nordin next year, we will not squander nine opening goals. We will not feel the game is lost if we concede that opening goal. In a league like Allsvenskan, that can take you a long way.

Yo soy un perdedor...

2011-10-28T06:37:00.000-07:00

I am about to reveal some pretty disturbing facts for Örebro SK fans.

First: this is not the post-season wrap up. That would be premature. We have a chance to save our faces and our dignity starting with the cup semifinal tomorrow. All focus on that.

But I need to refer back to my August post 1-0 and we f* it up 0-1 and we f* it up. It looked bad then. It looks worse now. I took the liberty to recalculate Allsvenskan 2011 according to the golden goal rule: first goal wins; 0-0 draws are counted as draws.

The figures speak for themselves.

First, the real Allsvenskan final standings:

1	Helsingborg	63
2	AIK	58
3	Elfsborg	57
4	Malmö	54
5	Gais	51
5	Häcken	49
7	IFK Göteborg	45
8	Kalmar	44
9	Gefle	41
10	Mjällby	40
11	Djurgården	36
12	Örebro SK	36
13	IFK Norrköping	34
14	Syrianska	28
15	Trelleborg	25
16	Halmstad	14

Then, the Golden Goal league (golden goal rule points, allsvenskan points, difference):

Örebro SK	61	36	-25
Helsingborg	55	63	8
AIK	55	58	3
Häcken	55	49	-6
Gais	51	51	0
Elfsborg	46	57	11
Malmö	43	54	11
Kalmar	43	44	1
Djurgården	43	36	-7
IFK Göteborg	41	45	4
Mjällby	41	40	-1
IFK Norrköping	36	34	-2
Trelleborg	36	25	-11
Gefle	35	41	6
Syrianska	33	28	-5
Halmstad	30	14	-16

Not much happens in the table, except that Örebro jumps from 12th to 1st position! With a 6-point margin!

How can it be?

In number terms, it is because out of 30 games:

In 9 games, we conceded the first goal. We lost them all.
one game ended 0-0.
In 20 games, we scored the opening goal. We won 11, drew 2 and lost 7.

25 points lost, 0 points won. Those are loser team stats. Top teams win points in comparison to the opening goal, as is clear from the table.

I raised the question to the Örebro coach during a chat this autumn. His response was laconic and uninspired. To me, this is serious. I still feel that in terms of quality, we had a team that could have been contenders. Instead of bums, which is what we are, let's face it. Unless we win the cup.

Elmander! And Elm! And all of them.

2011-10-14T08:55:00.000-07:00

Getting some distance to the epic win, the beauty, the joy. We are qualified after a qualification campaign where we played well at home but struggled away.

So as qualification campaigns go, not one of our best, but the ending was one of the most beautiful. The Swedish national team in my life time are perhaps most known for memorable draws when it comes to the top teams: a bunch of them against England (1988, 1989, 1999, 2002, 2006), West Germany in 1985, France in 1992 and 1993, Brazil in 1994, Argentina in 2002, Italy in 2004.

When it comes to big wins in competitive games, there are not that many. Excluding the days before I was born (beating Italy and Spain in the 1950 world cup, Germany in 1958 and so on), and discounting wins that were big because of their importance but not against the really big footballing nations (Poland 1989, Denmark 1992, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Romania and Bulgaria 1994, a bunch of more qualifier and tournament wins against Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary, Turkey 2001, Nigeria 2002, Paraguay 2006, we are left with a pretty short list: wins I have experienced against the big teams in competitive games. Here they are, in chronological order:

29 May, 1983: Sweden-Italy 2-0. You may think that opening goal header from Håkan Sandberg was not very impressive. But for being a PE teacher in Örebro, he was pretty accurate. And then Glenn Strömberg, of course Glenn, took advantage of a pretty terrible Italian defensive header.

15 October 1983: Italy-Sweden 0-3. That Glenn again, securing a second win against the world champions. How did we not qualify for Euro '84 after that? By losing twice to Romania, that's how. I'm still upset.

3 June, 1987: Sweden-Italy 1-0. The absence of the clear goal opportunity red card at the time, a magnificent penalty save from Ravelli and a the longest 1-2 combination in history brilliantly set up and executed by He-Man cheeked central defender Peter Larsson made us believe in Euro '88 qualification. Three on the trot against Italy. But it went downhill after that.

17 June, 1992: Sweden-England 2-1. Efter a period of dominating Italy, Engeland became our next victim. Efter ~~Sweden~~ Glenn Hysén held England at Wembley in 1988 and then Terry Butcher stealing the show in 1989, Brolin decided to take the 1-2 to yet another level and securing a semifinal in our home championship in Euro 1992.

5 September 1998: Sweden-England 2-1. Maybe more thanks to David Seaman than anyone else. But a fantastic start to our most impressive qualification campaign ever, I think.

8 October 2006: Sweden-Spain 2-0. Up until last week, the last time Sweden looked really impressive. The only game I could not watch.

And, then, the unforgettable 11 October 2011.

What ranks highest? The 1992 game is a championship game and secured qualification to the Euro semifinal. That is hard to beat. Beating Italy 3-0 away is near impossible, but these were world champions that were already out of qualification.

The game against Spain was against a Spain that had already lost points and that could not really afford losing many more. It was against a team that was about to develop to be the best team in the world.

But for us, for Sweden, the Holland game is special as it secured qualifcation. Similar to Turkey in 2001, there we were head to head against our rivals but here we played against a team with one of the most impressive winning streaks in history, save for the world cup final.

You can make a case for any of those for as the biggest win under the belt in my lifetime. So yes, 11 October was a big day.

Elm and... er...? II

2011-10-10T08:00:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow. Holland. Not a must-win this time. But a very much wanna-win as a win means a ticket to Euro 2012 as best runner-up and with a draw we have a chance although my bet goes to Denmarl (kick-off changed, someone read my "No academic quarter" post).

How do we beat Holland? My previous line-up is obsolete given the suspension of Zlatan. But I stick to my guns even if we will not have a strong but static target forward to aim for but rather a scared moose (hunting season, Zlatan knows): we should really play three central midfielders, with one of them operating higher up on the pitch, which in my world should be Källström as he is more prone to making passing errors. Although we need speed, starting with two strikers (Elmander and Hysen) as many propose is not a good idea. And Toivonen, nope,we cannot afford the luxury of a pure number 10 against Holland. So my line-up is:

Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, M.Olsson
Svensson, Elm
Larsson, Källström, Wilhelmsson (or Bajrami, whoever is in best shape)
Elmander

Bench: Wilandh, J.Olsson, Bengtsson, Wernblom, Toivonen, Wilhemsson/Bajrami, Hysen.

But still, my feeling is we will need to start preparing for a play-off on Wednesday so I start already now. Likely pairings as runners up right now are as follows (assuming that Denmark or Portugal claim the best runner-up spot; If not, it will be Sweden or Croatia, all of which as it seems would be seeded if they have to go into play-off):

Seeded (Ranking coefficient - not yet final):
Croatia (6) (the alternative, Greece, would also be seeded)
Sweden (10)
Serbia (13) (the alternative, Estonia, would be most unseeded)
Czech Republic (14) (the alternative, Scotland, would most likely be unseeded)

Unseeded:
Turkey (17) (the alternative, Belgium, is further down and not close to seeding)
Ireland (19) (could still be Russia who would be seeded, or Armenia who would not be)
Bosnia (20) (or France, that would be seeded)
Montenegro (30)

So from a purely Swedish perspective I should route for Estonia (38), the Scots (27), Belgium (33) and Armenia (37).

An unseeded bunch consisting of Scotland, Estonia, Mopntenegro and Armenia may not be easy but a whole lot easier than for example if Sweden drops in the rankings and face Russia, Croatia, France and Serbia on the other side.

Elm and... er...?

2011-10-07T04:19:00.000-07:00

Tonight: Finland-Sweden. Must win game. Nervous.

Coach Hamrén continues to play 4-4-2 against Finland (although of course it is called 4-2-3-1). I'm ok with that, I am in agreement to play Rasmus Elm although I am not sure at all that it was a good decision not to play Anders Svensson. Elm called Svensson a fossile, or actually the fossile, earlier this week. Jokingly, but still. Anders and I are the same age, ready for a life on the bench.

But against Holland on Tuesday I would like to see a real 4-2-3-1. I would like Svensson to come back on the starting XI, at the expense of Elmander. I want us to play with three central midfielders, and I want to keep Elmander on the bench to come on if we need speed in the second half.

The Sorrow Gondola

2011-10-06T06:24:00.000-07:00

Although a good Swede of course should quote Tranströmer on a day like this (and drink to the reawoken old Swedish custom of awarding ourselves), today is a day of lost man love. At 4pm IFK Göteborg will announce that they have poached our goalie Alvbåge. The day he came back in 2008 is the day we started looking up the table, the day our team started to be mentioned with respect again, not with impertinence or pity. So Tranströmer gets the header, Auden the main text:

Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone,
Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone,
Silence the pianos and with muffled drum
Bring out the coffin, let the mourners come.

Let aeroplanes circle moaning overhead
Scribbling on the sky the message He Is Dead,
Put crepe bows round the white necks of the public doves,
Let the traffic policemen wear black cotton gloves.

He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last for ever: I was wrong.

The stars are not wanted now: put out every one;
Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
Pour away the ocean and sweep up the wood.
For nothing now can ever come to any good.

Just a Walker and a Parker

2011-10-03T08:17:00.000-07:00

Just a very short "hat" as the French say to Walker for proving to be a really good fullback and for Parker for taking runs no one else could be bothered to take despite obvious cramps in both legs. Two very welcome additions to the team, yesterday a whole lot more welcome than the lazy Adebayor although he provided an assist. Four straight wins for Spurs and given the game in hand and the bizarrely difficult opening programme (six games played so far include Utd, City, Pool and the Gunners), we're in a good position.

See these two cold fingers?

2011-09-14T09:40:00.000-07:00

Up the bracket for you, Barca. You got what you deserved. The first for not starting the game on your toes, the second for not bothering to finish it off.

All credit to AC Milan staying in the game and for giving themselves a chance to punish those oh-so-humble-wannabies-that-really-are-the-most-pompus-team-around Barcelona.

One of my favourite sportsmen of all times is Bode Miller. Partly because of what happens 30 seconds into this clip, partly because of his simple response to the question why downhills was his favourite event: "I like to go straight".

Barcelona is the opposite of that. Combined with the teddybear image, they are the enemy.

Solo con te, sempre con te

2011-09-09T01:52:00.000-07:00

Last out is Italy and Serie A.

The strike allowed us to await the closing of the transfer window, to sit down and analyse the squads. In particular in Italy that is important, as the clubs in general (and Genoa in particular) recently have developed a system of loans, partial ownerships and other arrangements that make a Korean chaebol look pretty straighforward.

Here's my prediction.
1. Milan. Stronger this season, in particular in defense where there are more alternatives and real fullbacks now. The absence of Mr. X means no real chance to challenge in Europe, but in a weakened Serie A they will be big favourites.
2. Inter. What can Gasperini do with this bunch? Inter was a team with more direction than any in the last few season. Last year there was no direction at all. It's a big squad, with a lot of good players, but perhaps not enough great players. Already a lot of injuries. And most of all, no Eto'o.
3. Juventus. The big signings did not happen, but it's time for Juve to have a decent season.
4. Lazio. Zarate failed to make an impact last year anyway. Lazio will continue to go strong. I hope they can focus on Europa league as well.
5. Roma. It certainly did not start well for Luis Enrique. And with the history of Spaniards in Italy, we need to be careful here. A team that could challenge for the title, but can also end up 7th.
6. Fiorentina. With focus on the league and the league only, and so many disappointments that pressure has fallen, Fiorentina is suddenly in a good position. Sinisa, look at this season as a free-kick attempt 10 metres outside the box.
7. Udinese. Always hard to predict. It's not so much about how much they will miss Sanchez as how long the winning spells will be in comparison to the losing spells.
8. Napoli. Surprisingly intact. But strong enough to handle champions league on the side, with six big games on the side? Important season for Napoli, need to convince the world they are not just a one-hit wonder.
9. Genoa. It's quite comical that Genoa has bought a player called Constant. Let's say they need a bit of that. With a new squad every year, and with most players co-owned somewhere else, it is hard to see Genoa establishing themselves as the top team they want to be. But they players with the capacuity, but not the team.
10. Cesena. Mutu! Quite a surprise, but if he uses his nose to find goals and not for other purposes, this could be exactly what Cesena needs. They play nice, free-flow football, but need to convert their chances.
11. Palermo. If it was any other team I would say that firing the new coach during pre-season would indicate that something is really wrong. In Palermo that is business as usual. But Palermo have lost players that cannot easily be replaced. A good youth academy, sure, but this season looks like a dip.
12. Parma. The year of the Giovinco? He is not a baby anymore, if it should happen for the formica atomica it should happen now.
13. Atalanta. Like the youth team they are, they tend to make a good start when they are back from serie B, and then slowly fall back. Or youth team? Actually more experienced then the other newcomers.
14. Catania. Just like a girl, the true look of the squad is more apparent without the Mascara. But Legrottaglie, if he gets fit, and Maxi Lopez, are significant acquisitions.
15. Cagliari.
16. Chievo. Underestimating Chievo is a tradition, can't just stop now.
17. Bologna. If they stay up it's thanks to di Vaio. As always
18. Lecce
19. Siena.
20. Novara. Can they surprise anyone?

No academic quarter

2011-09-07T00:55:00.000-07:00

Could be a thrilling ending to the Euro qualifyer. As I posted already in March, Denmark are in the best position to qualify as best runner up.

If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.

And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.

15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.

The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.

Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.

Here's what I said then:

Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY

England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE

Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE

As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.