LOCKRATION

Fantasy Funkhouser: Oscar Taveras is Here. A Nation is Relieved.

2014-05-31T10:20:00.000-04:00

Oscar Taveras is coming to town. (cbssports.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

After months of speculation, debate, and mathematical breakdowns of what exactly the Super 2 deadline is Oscar Taveras is on his way to St. Louis. The Cards have been floundering a bit all year up until a recent hot streak saw them pull close to the division leading Brewers only to go on another 3 game slide. Clearly some offensive consistency is needed and Taveras is a spark plug that can ignite the top of the Cards' lineup.

Taveras' credentials are pretty extensive and impressive. He's been near to top of every prospect rank since he was 19 years old. He was expected to get the call last year at 20 before ankle injuries cost him important at bats. But now, Taveras has been ripping Triple A pitching to the point where some scouts felt he was bored with the lack of challenges in Triple A to the tune of a .325 AVG with 7 HR and 40 RBI in 49 games. Some snooze-fest, huh?

As for what Taveras can bring to the table fantasy wise, it's mainly tied to two things ... his playing time and his spot in the batting order. While Taveras is regarded as a more talented offensive player than previous call-up extraordinaire George Springer, Taveras' skill set isn't easily translatable as Springer's power and speed combo. Taveras can hit, but it's unclear for how much power. He needs to be put in a position where if he is lacing doubles all over the place, someone needs to be on base. Should his power develop then he can reach his potential of Vladimir Guerrero without the speed. That's something that doesn't come along often.

Playing time wise, the Cardinals wouldn't have made the call to bring up Taveras unless he was going to get a shot to play everyday. Not coincidentally, this move corresponds with current 1B Matt Adams going on the 15-day DL with a hamstring strain. This allows Allen Craig to slide back to 1B, put Taveras in RF, and platoon CF duties between Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos, and fellow Triple A prospect Randal Grichunk. Ideally for the Cards and fantasy owners, Taveras shows he can hang and Adams can be a bench/platoon player moving forward.

Taveras will have more than enough time to settle in. Again, similarly with Springer, who struggled mightily his first month in the bigs needed time, Taveras will cetainly have his at bats. I do not expect him to have as big a learning curve as Springer did, but at the same time, without the power/speed combo to really generate fantasy value, it's hard to see him having as big an impact as Springer.

Now, if they plop him 2nd in their order, then that would be giving him a chance to bat .300 and drive in a lot of RBI. Taveras is an actionable add in all formats. I've been sitting on him for a month in my keeper league so I'm invested in him. I view him as a better prospect this year and going forward than Gregory Polanco, who should be up in 10 days or so anyway, so don't be hesitant to spend some FAAB or worry about whether you should wait for Polanco.

Taveras will be in the lineup today against San Francisco and he may not be leaving it for a long time.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Learning When to Hold 'Em, When to Fold 'Em, and Why Gambling is Still Important in Fantasy Baseball

2014-05-16T15:52:00.001-04:00

Phil Ivey uses his gut almost as much as his stats.

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Phil Ivey is one of the most well known and respected card players out there. His skills and ability to transition from poker to baccarat to craps to black jack is a spectacle to behold. While poker will always be his calling card and sure when you can lose millions gambling on sports only to go win it all back tossing some dice, there isn't as much inherent risk when Phil Ivey gambles as opposed to when you or I gamble.

Even with his high powered gambling brain and ability to routinely mop the floor with a poker table of gamblers, Ivey still is a gambler. As Mike McDermott insists in Rounders to his wet blanket girlfriend Jo, "It's not luck," as it pertains to his card playing (if you thought a loosely based gambling intro to a fantasy baseball column written by someone in their early 30's wasn't getting a Rounders reference, then you are the sucker at the table). As the movie plays out and as we see time and time again, yes, a part of it is luck. You might have all the numbers, all the facts, all the odds, all the skills - but when push comes to shove and those chips are on the line ... you're brain tells you to just go for it. To hell with what the odds say.

Ivey won't pass up an opportunity to upend the integrity of gambling by running and gunning to win $10M (albeit done through very skillful means).

Fantasy sports and baseball in particular have become more and more of an analytics game. Don't tell me what the guys girlfriend looks like, tell me what his O-Swing % is. There are such a litany of stats to look at and pick a part and sample sizes to digest that it's easy to get swallowed up in that.

What we've seen so far this year though, is that it pays to be bold. Some of the top ranked players across all positions were risks at draft time. They had their reasons for not being drafted earlier, but to those bold people out there, they are paying huge dividends.

Albert Pujols
Doubted. Denied. Disrespected. The greatest hitter of a generation has his feet under him and is rounding back into the kind of post peak decline fitting a player of Pujols' stature. His drop in form last year was more reminiscent of Wile E. Coyote.

Dee Gordon
Hahaha, Dee Gordon? Can't steal first base. He's not a major leaguer. Oh, experts had their fun with Flash Gordon. Billy Hamilton? He has a shot, but Gordon - no way! An improved walk and contact rate has plopped him on first base more than ever, and he's running wild. Not too easy to make fun of Dee now.

Johnny Cueto
I mean come on with this. 99.5% strand rate helps his league leading ERA. But 3 CG's for a guy with an injury history that forced him to alter his mechanics. It's not all witchcraft and dreadlocks. I don't know if this season will end with a Cy Young, but it is well on its way.

Francisco Rodriguez
The reemergence of K-Rod might be the most nonsensical thing of the baseball season thus far. The guy was toast two years ago, and his peripherals this year don't really show him keeping this up, but he's getting it done. Someone bid $5 on him in my keeper league at the start of the season, and I thought that was insane. Not so much now. He had his first hiccup against the Pirates, but I'm pretty sure we would have all bet the over if May 14th was the date we were given for first K-Rod meltdown.

Jose Abreu
Masahiro Tanaka
These two are lumped together because they are on a path to the greatest Rookie of the Year battle ever. Sure, they aren't really rookies and they certainly aren't playing like rooks either. I thought early on people were really ragging on Jose Abreu's skill set. Experts said there were some concerns with his swing. That he could get overmatched by top level pitchers. Well, things seem to be going well so far.

Tanaka is basically Stephen Strasburg with a killer splitter instead of the high heat. He's been baffling hitters with his array of pitches. His start is historic, and the guy everyone pegged as no Yu Darvish is dealing like an elite pitcher. He could wear down later in the year, but the skills are there and they are real.

Yasiel Puig
Let's be honest with Puig. We all kind of wanted him to fail. It's hard to wrap your head around a guy that plays all out like this can cover up issues like swinging at bad pitches, making bad decisions on the field, oh and potentially getting hunted down by Mexican criminals just on pure will and talent. Well, Puig has been able to make noted improvements in his approach in the batter's box. After a slow start it's full speed ahead for the Wild Horse. He's creeping his way to the Mike Trout level of talk. Oh wait, ESPN already did that. Hasta luego, bat.

Fantasy Funkhouser: So You Don't Own any Colorado Rockies Position Players?

2014-05-08T10:20:00.003-04:00

Troy Tulowitzki is leading an offensive barrage in Mile High. (washingtonpost.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

It's May. Having a lot of regrets thus far in fantasy baseball isn't uncommon. In fact, after years of meditation I've been able to overcome my extreme anger and impatience that plagued me through my early years in fantasy. Case in point: I haven't dropped Billy Butler on the few leagues where I drafted him.

Sure, there's still a lot more season to go, and it is worth it to try to not overreact to slumping players with proven track records, but what is undeniable is that we can look back on the past month and know we missed out on some big opportunities. One that jumps out at me is not owning as many of the Colorado Rockies' position players as possible. The lure of the Colorado offense is no surprise, but the quantity and quality at which they have performed thus far is incredible.

Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .284, that was the eighth-highest average in the Colorado lineup last night. http://t.co/Hu7LtAFQ5H
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 8, 2014

The team ranks 1st in virtually any offensive stat that matters: Runs, Batting Average, OBP, Slugging. Let's take a look at how these guys could have made your April a lot better.

Charlie Blackmon, RF (Y! Rank: 2) .359/.396/.602
I can't sit here and say I'm shocked by Blackmon as a whole, but I did assume he'd start quieting down by now after his red hot start. Blackmon actually started getting into a groove late last year. In limited action he closed out August and September with an OPS over .850. It's possible he's really found himself and can be a solid on base guy that can score runs and steal some bags. His 7 HR so far this year is what's really separating him. He's managed to hold off more highly touted player Corey Dickerson, who is only batting .348 in 46 at bats. Have to do better than that, Corey.

Carlos Gonzalez, LF (Y! Rank: 21) .284/.324/.530
The guy we expect to perform at this level is. Cargo is still finding miraculous was to ding, bruise, or hobble himself to get pulled from games early and have his fantasy owners fret over his health, but it's smooth sailing so far. If anything the obscene numbers his teammates are putting up leaves us wanting even more.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS (Y! Rank: 1) .414/.511/.775
Injuries be damned. Home/road splits be damned. Getting this amount of production from Tulo outweighs all of that. It's not out of the question that he can stay healthy. If he can ... big things.

Nolan Arenado, 3B (Y! Rank: 18) .324/.346/.535
The second year gold glover is also riding a 27 game hitting streak. He's taken kindly to the Coors atmosphere but he's actually hitting better on the road (.357) than at home (.292). Predictably though the power is mainly at Coors, and that's fine. Arenado is turning into the 3B equivalent of Andrelton Simmons minus some flashy plays and packing in more offense.

Justin Morneau, 1B (Y! Rank: 22) .331/.350/.585
Let the hair pulling begin. Justin Morneau! He has a lot of very productive seasons to his name, but a serious concussion just about ruined his career and led to lackluster results the last 4 seasons. At 32-years-old he's not past his prime, but expecting the mountains and altitude to recreate Morneau in his MVP years. Well, that's what is happening. I always had the suspicion that confidence and comfort played a big part in Morneau's struggles, and that certainly appears to be the case as he is hitting comfortably in this formidable line-up.

Michael Cuddyer, OF (Y! Rank: 268) .317/.373/.533
Cuddyer's rank is a result of a couple of injuries he has suffered so far. He only has 60 AB's and with Blackmon playing out of his mind, there's no rush to bring back Cuddyer before he's ready. Cuddyer was one of the Rockies' best hitters last year and he is looking to continue that success this season as well. Before the season, it was suggested that Cargo would move to CF to make way for Drew Stubbs, but again with Blackmon not Stubbs performing - when Cuddyer gets back it may force the Rockies to dust off that outfield arrangement.

Wilin Rosario, C (Y! Rank: 422) .274/.306/.494
If there is a disappointment on this roster so far fantasy wise it's Rosario. The Baby Bull is currently out with a viral infection, which may or may not have been dragging his production down a bit. He's hit 49 home runs the past two seasons and although he's off to a slow start, he's improved his K/BB rate and the power and home field advantage is real. Rosario also has the uncanny ability to hit as well at home as he does on the road, so there's a lot of time for him to pick up the slack.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Making the Case for ... Brian Dozier

2014-04-18T10:07:00.001-04:00

Getting on base is key for Brian Dozier's fantasy value. (rantsports.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Early in the 2014 season the second base position has been a disappointment. It is of course still early, and basic math tells us that even if things don't straighten themselves out, there will still be a Top 10 Second Baseman ranks next year, some players will pull out of their tailspin and others will fall. So whether you are looking to cut bait on Jedd Gyorko or if you need to wait out whatever is going on with Dustin Pedroia or the Red Sox as a whole, Brian Dozier would like your attention.

The 27-year-old is no budding superstar. The former 8th round pick is beginning his 3rd major league season in the Twin Cities, but he started making some impressions last year. He finished the season the 13th ranked second baseman in Yahoo (#178 overall) powered by his always fantasy relevant speed and power combination. But playing in Minnesota and sporting a .244 AVG scared off a lot of people leaving his 2014 ADP somewhere in the early 200's.

So far, Dozier has already earned that value back. He leads the league in runs scored and has 5 HR and 5 SB already. That pesky average is still at .207, but where Dozier has shown a lot of improvement is his walk rate. As the lead off hitter, Dozier has upped his walk rate from 8.2% last year to 17.8% this year! That's getting him on base more, despite hitting for a low average, which allows him to steal more and cross the plate more.

It is early on so calculated stats, e.g. BB%, can be misleading. For example, he's not finishing the year with a .276 ISO. What is different about taking more walks is that is shows a clear change in approach. It's not something that fluctuates like hitting 2 HR in one game would inflate numbers so early in the year.

Dozier's K/BB ratio last year was 120/51. That's just not sustainable for a guy in his position. For a big time power hitter, sure, but you won't be batting lead off long with that. He's still striking out a lot, hence the .207 AVG, but by bringing up his K/BB to 13/16 he's off-setting his propensity to swing and miss a lot. Dozier is lowering the percentage of pitches he swings at outside of the zone, which is probably a byproduct of a lot of pitchers throwing him balls, expecting him to chase. Now that he's not, will he see more strikes? Likely, but his power will have that work more to his favor than the pitchers.

In mid-May last year he focused more on shortening his stride to catch up to fastballs in the zone. He ended up driving the ball more, which is still true so far this year. He does tend to hit the ball in the air more often than your typical middle infielder, but if he can straighten those out from pop ups to line drives, he could be in line for a special year.

There are a lot of positives to take from Dozier's start, but also the potential for it to all fall apart just as easy. He has to stay true to his patience at the plate. Take his walks. At the very least if he can maintain his OBP, then his average will gradually work its way up to a respectable .260 or so. Combine that with 90+runs and a serious push at a 20/20 season, that's pretty fantastic. I'm not sure if he'll be able to keep things up for the entire season and beyond, but he is worth an add at the very least as a stop gap. And if he can be this year's Daniel Murphy that would be a home run free agent add.

Fantasy Funkhouser: George Springer - The First Big Prospect Callup of 2014 is Here

2014-04-16T09:10:00.001-04:00

George Springer has been called up already. (cnn.si.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Probably the most impossible question to ask during fantasy baseball prep is when a top prospect will get called up. It's impossible to answer simply because the team who owns a top prospects right have no idea when that is going to happen. The popular go-to line is the Super Two deadline, which allows a team to call up a prospect without losing an arbitration year. This random date happens sometime in late May or early June. I recently wondered why teams even care about the Super Two deadline anymore with nearly all teams signing their young talents to long-term deals which knock out all the arbitration years anyway. Someone was kind enough to reply, and said something about how it still matters ... yeah, but still. So long as their progress isn't impeded, get your young players up and playing for you in his early 20's and just buy out his arbitration years. Win - win.

Well, the Astros moved forward with one of their many top prospects, George Springer.

Rare baseball tweet: woke up to find George Springer called up by HOU. If he's still available in your league, you want him. Now.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) April 16, 2014

Springer had a shot to break camp with the club, but that didn't happen. He then considered suing the Astros for not writing his name in the Opening Day lineup, but that never really gained any steam. With the Astros playing terrible as usual, they've brought up Springer to liven things up a bit. Presumably after a month or so of surviving in the majors, he'll get that big contract extension.

The long and short of it is, yes, if you have a player that is worthy of a drop, then go add Springer immediately. I've dropped the likes of Brad Miller, Brett Gardner, and and assortment of random pitchers like Ivan Nova, Jonathan Broxton, and Marco Estrada. So no one I was heavily invested in draft pick or dollar wise. This is true for any top prospect that gets called up, but don't go dropping highly ranked players for prospects, especially in redraft leagues. As much as it pains you to still hold onto Billy Butler, even he isn't worth cutting loose for many a prospect.

Springer isn't the jewel of many scouts' eyes. Many publications rank him near the bottom of the Top 20, which of course isn't terrible, but it does show some concern for a guy that otherwise hit 37 HR and swiped 45 bags in the minors last year. The big concern for Springer is his ability to make regular contact. He strikes out a lot, and he can certainly be exposed by big league pitching.

When it comes to evaluating Springer, I'm looking at the skills he has. He is going to hit for power and steal bases. If I need that or the person I'm dropping for him has similar or even lesser skills in those areas, sign me up. The big allure of prospects like this is that there is always great potential. Springer could go 20/20 at some point in his career or he could do it by August. It's that hype that tends to make people overreact. As tough as it may be, one must react without emotion to making an addition like this. Springer could fall on his face.

From a value standpoint, again, I'm buying the power and the speed. Average be damned. He should be inserted in the middle of the Houston lineup, so counting stats should be there. I would say his ceiling for this year is probably along the lines of Desmond Jennings. Again, that's a ceiling, if things go great projection. Last year Jennings was ranked 148 in the Yahoo game so again, this isn't likely Yasiel Puig.

Also, for those with a FAAB system in place, the value in Springer is that he is being called up so early. You're getting virtually a full year out of him. There are other prospects out there I would prefer to have over Springer, but if they're not called up until June or July, then that's a lot of lost value. It's an unexpected surprise this early in the year which makes it all the more exciting.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Making the Case for ... Devin Mesoraco

2014-04-15T09:25:00.001-04:00

Can Devin Mesoraco turn regular playing time into fantasy gold? (blogredmachine.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Amid the seeming endless string of homeruns being hit last night in the (currently) postponed Reds and Pirates game, the portly catcher for the Reds dug into the batter's box for the 17th time this year and connected for his 3rd home run of the season. Devin Mesoraco is a shoulda been star whose sparkle has simply faded over the years, but his talent might be finally coming around.

The former top prospect has managed to ascend to the throne that many scouts and experts thought he would have been able to grab much sooner: starting catcher. The offensively talented Mesoraco hasn't been able to get a steady foothold and steady at bats so far in his career. The excitement for this prospect has been repeatedly beat down by a lack of opportunities and Mesoraco's inability to capitalize when he did play.

Last year was supposed to be a big step forward for him as he only had to battle Ryan Hanigan for playing time. He ended up in a platoon with Hanigan who had a .567 OPS. Mesoraco certainly had a little more pop, and while it's usually fun to just blame everything on Dusty Baker, when many people saw Ryan friggin Hanigan performaing on a comparable level to the former Top 25 Prospect people were either indifferent or disappointed in Mesoraco.

A top prospect fizzling out isn't breaking news, but for a catcher to be ranked so highly is something to take note of. Courtesy of Fangraphs, below is a chart of catcher prospects ranked in the Top 25 since 1990 (Year - Rank). Mike Zunino is just getting things going in Seattle, same for Travis D'Arnaud in New York, but Mesoraco had been in the bigs several more years than them, but to date has only amassed 609 total plate appearances in four years.

Player	Year-Rank
Mike Zunino	2013-17
Travis D’Arnaud	2012-17, 2013-23
Devin Mesoraco	2012-16
Jesus Montero	2010-4, 2011-3, 2012-6
Carlos Santana	2010-10
Buster Posey	2009-14, 2010-7
Matt Wieters	2008-12, 2009-1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2006-18
Jeff Mathis	2004-22
Victor Martinez	2003-16
Joe Mauer	2002-7, 2003-4, 2004-1, 2005-1
J.R. House	2001-21
Michael Barrett	1999-6
Ben Davis	1996-10, 1999-24
Charles Johnson	1994-20, 1995-7
Carlos Delgado	1993-4, 1994-5
Javy Lopez	1993-20, 1994-17
Todd Hundley	1992-18
Ivan Rodriguez	1991-7
Todd Zeile	1990-7
Sandy Alomar	1990-5

*Fangraphs

It's time for Mesoraco to start making up for lost time. Whether it was his play, his manager, or the old addage that catching at the major league level just takes several years to adjust to rings true, this season appears to be his shot to make an impact for the Reds and fantasy teams everywhere.

A conservative approach would be to have him finish the year in the Top 12-15 of catchers. Aggresively, this could be a catcher that comfortably lands in the Top 10. The opportunity will be there for him to put up some runs. The Reds' lineup is far from a finished product, and if Mesoraco can capitalize on his hot start, he could find himself moving up to a more prime position - at least a tad closer to Joey Votto.

In shallow leagues, I think he's definitely worth a gamble. Deeper leagues, he is a must add. If it is Mesoraco's time to shine, then fantasy owners should get on for the ride.

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - Rounds 10-15

2014-04-07T12:33:00.000-04:00

Clayton Kershaw's injury is a lesson in not leaning too heavily on pitching in fantasy. (calltothepen.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

With all of the media coverage that baseball has, it's hard to believe how many surprises there have been so far for fantasy owners. The day-in-day-out grind that is covering a baseball team usually lends itself to sensational stories or any interesting minutia being discussed just to get something submitted by a deadline. Yet, here we are a week into the season and Clayton Kershaw's precautionary scratch is now a month plus on the DL. Ryan Braun who was homer happy and excited in spring training, now all of a sudden, can't feel his fingers. Pre-season sleeper favorite for the White Sox's closer job, Nate Jones, didn't even get a chance to blow a save, as that gig went to Matt Lindstrom, and he will forever be known as the INF reliever for failing to retire a single batter in his first two appearances of the regular season. Jim Henderson also immediately lost the closing job out of the blue, but he is expected to get it back at some point. Oh and no one seemed to notice that Stephen Strasburg was throwing 90 mph either.

I mean, what the hell, beat writers? How did none of this some to light? I can't remember being more blind sided to start a season than I have been this year. Add to that the unfortunate injuries that have already taken place to Aroldis Chapman, Jose Reyes, and a quick Yu Darvish trip to the DL it's been a scattered and crazy start.

Anyway, with that being said, it seems necessary to start pumping out more rankings faster. This is just getting things official for review and consumption. I've really only altered a couple of players slightly. Most of the movement is due to injuries or players losing their starting gigs. No reason to overhaul everything after a week. Plus these ranks should have been posted by now anyway. No reason to play revisionist history on these. Enjoy!

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	3	COL
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	4	NYY
7	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
8	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL
9	Chris Davis	1B	3	TOR
10	Carlos Gomez	OF	5	MIL	16
11	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
12	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
13	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
14	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
15	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
16	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	8	MIA
17	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
18	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE
19	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX
20	Evan Longoria	3B	4	TB
21	Chris Sale	SP	1	CHI
22	David Wright	3B	5	NYM
23	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS
24	Felix Hernandez	SP	2	SEA
25	Adam Wainwright	SP	3	STL
26	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
27	Yu Darvish	SP	4	TEX
28	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
29	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
30	Cliff Lee	SP	5	PHI	31
31	Jose Fernandez	SP	6	MIA	43
32	Hunter Pence	OF	10	SF
33	Jose Bautista	OF	11	TOR
34	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	12	TEX
35	Justin Verlander	SP	7	DET
36	Justin Upton	OF	13	ATL
37	Stephen Strasburg	SP	8	WAS
38	Ryan Braun	OF	14	MIL	5
39	Craig Kimbrel	RP	1	ATL
40	David Price	SP	9	TB
41	Matt Holliday	OF	15	STL
42	Buster Posey	C	1	SF
43	Clayton Kershaw	SP	10	LAD
44	David Ortiz	1B	6	BOS
45	Elvis Andrus	SS	4	TEX	37
46	Madison Bumgarner	SP	11	SF
47	Max Scherzer	SP	12	DET
48	Jay Bruce	OF	16	CIN
49	Ian Kinsler	2B	4	DET
50	Yasiel Puig	OF	17	LAD
51	Eric Hosmer	1B	7	KC
52	Zack Greinke	SP	13	LAD
53	Starling Marte	OF	18	PIT
54	Albert Pujols	1B	8	LAA
55	Jean Segura	SS	5	MIL
56	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	9	LAD
57	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	19	OAK
58	Homer Bailey	SP	14	CIN
59	Kenley Jansen	RP	2	LAD
60	Allen Craig	1B	10	STL
61	Jason Heyward	OF	20	ATL
62	Matt Carpenter	2B	5	STL
63	Pedro Alvarez	3B	6	PIT
64	Pablo Sandoval	3B	7	SF	85
65	Everth Cabrera	SS	6	SD
66	Greg Holland	RP	3	KC
67	Jose Altuve	2B	6	HOU
68	Wil Myers	OF	21	TB
69	Joe Mauer	C	2	MIN
70	Jayson Werth	OF	22	WAS
71	Alex Gordon	OF	23	KC
72	Shane Victorino	OF	24	BOS
73	Jose Abreu	1B	11	CHW
74	Anibal Sanchez	SP	15	DET
75	Starlin Castro	SS	7	CHC
76	Alex Cobb	SP	16	TB
77	Trevor Rosenthal	RP	4	STL
78	Josh Donaldson	3B	8	OAK
79	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12	CHC
80	Mark Trumbo	1B	13	ARZ
81	Yadier Molina	C	3	STL
82	Kyle Seager	3B	9	SEA
83	James Shields	SP	17	KC
84	Josh Hamilton	OF	25	LAA
85	Manny Machado	3B	10	BAL	89
86	Billy Hamilton	OF	26	CIN
87	Ben Zobrist	SS	8	TB
88	Carlos Santana	C	4	CLE
89	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	11	BAL	64
90	Wilin Rosario	C	5	COL
91	Carlos Beltran	OF	27	NYY
92	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	18	WAS
93	Xander Bogaerts	SS	9	BOS
94	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	19	NYY
95	Brett Lawrie	2B	7	TOR
96	Matt Kemp	OF	28	LAD
97	Matt Cain	SP	20	SF
98	Mat Latos	SP	21	CIN
99	Danny Salazar	SP	22	CLE
100	Sonny Gray	SP	23	OAK
101	Victor Martinez	1B	14	DET
102	Brandon Belt	1B	15	SF
103	Koji Uehara	RP	5	BOS
104	Shelby Miller	SP	24	STL
105	Chase Utley	2B	8	PHI
106	Gio Gonzalez	SP	25	WAS
107	Andrew Cashner	SP	26	SD
108	Gerrit Cole	SP	27	PIT
109	Billy Butler	1B	16	KC
110	Martin Prado	SS	10	ARZ
111	Jedd Gyorko	2B	9	SD
112	Jonathan Lucroy	C	6	MIL
113	Cole Hamels	SP	28	PHI
114	Desmond Jennings	OF	29	TB
115	Brian McCann	C	7	NYY
116	Jose Reyes	SS	11	TOR
117	Brett Gardner	OF	30	NYY
118	Aaron Hill	2B	10	ARZ
119	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	29	LAD
120	Joe Nathan	RP	6	DET
121	Aramis Ramirez	3B	12	MIL
122	Coco Crisp	OF	31	OAK
123	Brad Miller	2B	11	SEA
124	Austin Jackson	OF	32	DET
125	David Robertson	RP	7	NYY
126	Mike Napoli	1B	17	BOS
127	Sergio Romo	RP	8	SF
128	Brandon Phillips	2B	12	CIN
129	Doug Fister	SP	30	WAS
130	Addison Reed	RP	9	ARZ
131	Aroldis Chapman	RP	10	CIN	59
132	Ernesto Frieri	RP	11	LAA
133	Michael Cuddyer	1B	18	COL
134	Julio Teheran	SP	31	ATL
135	Mike Minor	SP	32	ATL
136	Justin Masterson	SP	33	CLE
137	Joakim Soria	RP	12	TEX
138	Matt Moore	SP	34	TB
139	R.A. Dickey	SP	35	TOR
140	Jim Johnson	RP	13	OAK
141	Matt Adams	1B	19	STL
142	Chase Headley	3B	13	SD
143	Will Venable	OF	33	SD
144	Tony Cingrani	SP	36	CIN
145	Glen Perkins	RP	14	MIN
146	Hisashi Iwakuma	SP	37	SEA
147	Michael Wacha	SP	38	STL
148	Jeff Samardzija	SP	39	CHC
149	C.J. Wilson	SP	40	LAA
150	Jason Grilli	RP	15	PIT
151	Salvador Perez	C	8	KC
152	Jered Weaver	SP	41	LAA
153	Alfonso Soriano	OF	34	NYY
154	Jason Castro	C	9	HOU
155	David Murphy	2B	13	NYM
156	Brandon Moss	1B	20	OAK
157	Domonic Brown	OF	35	PHI
158	J.J. Hardy	SS	12	BAL
159	Curtis Granderson	OF	36	NYM
160	Christian Yelich	OF	37	MIA
161	Leonys Martin	OF	38	TEX
162	Andrelton Simmons	SS	13	CHW
163	Will Middlebrooks	3B	14	BOS
164	Carl Crawford	OF	39	LAD
165	Hiroki Kuroda	SP	42	NYY
166	Matt Weiters	C	10	BAL
167	Nelson Cruz	OF	40	BAL
168	Alexi Ramirez	SS	14	ATL
169	Anthony Rendon	2B	14	WAS
170	Rafael Soriano	RP	16	WAS
171	Steve Cishek	RP	17	MIA
172	Jonathan Papelbon	RP	18	PHI
173	Johnny Cueto	SP	43	CIN
174	Norichika Aoki	OF	41	KC
175	Matt Garza	SP	44	MIL
176	Jon Lester	SP	45	BOS
177	Yan Gomes	C	11	CLE
178	Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	15	CLE
179	Adam Lind	1B	21	TOR
180	Torii Hunter	OF	42	DET

Fantasy Funkhouser: They Told Me To Do It

2014-04-02T12:46:00.001-04:00

When it comes to players like Rick Porcello, seeing will be believing in 2014.

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

As you may or may not have noticed, the baseball season has started. I've been sitting on this article for about 2 weeks, so before things get out of hand, it's time to just shove off and give you my list of guys whose opinion I have of them are completely created by the experts out there. Personally, from an emotional standpoint, I have zero interest in these characters, but people smarter than me are constantly saying that these guys are going to break big in 2014. I've selected some position players and pitchers that have been regularly brought up across all kinds of formats with people gushing all over them. So against my personal better judgment I've based my rankings on these players by trusting the experts and not myself. They're on my teams, I upped their auction price, and I'm holding on for the ride. Here's the list.

Brandon Belt, 1B +San Francisco Giants
What the experts say: Belt is the golden child of the sabermatricians out there. They rave about his swing, his approach at the plate, and all the good stuff like that. He even changed his swing! Oh, they love that. Also, after finally getting regular playing time against lefties, Belt was able to shine in the second half of 2013 going .326/.390/.525. For a guy that has average power and plays in a pitcher friendly park that particularly zaps lefty power unless you're Barry Lamar Bonds, this is eye catching. Belt is expected to bat 2nd or 3rd this season against righties, putting OBP skills to good use. And so far, he has two dingers, including this one last night against lefty Wade Miley. Color me curious. If all plays out like the experts say, he's a comparable Eric Hosmer without the high ceiling or at least can approach Freddie Freeman status, so long as Freddie doesn't become a 40 HR hitter.

What I think: The guy is just awkward looking, and while his short swing from the left side of the box will help him make solid contact, if he only cracks 15 HR this year and/or loses playing time - that's a ho-hum year. His second half can't be denied, but it seems a little too good to be true.

Alex Gordon, OF +Kansas City Royals
What the experts say: The uber prospect that made good on his potential. Gordon is a category filler putting up solid but not great numbers across the board. We probably won't see another 2011 year out of him, but that year was what he needed to justify to all of us that he was here to stay.

What I think: He is a solid roto player, no doubt, but without that 2011 ceiling should he be going higher than Ben Zobrist, Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings, and Carlos Beltran? Also, Gordon will be batting lower in the order to start the season, decreasing his run scoring ability. This could open up some more RBI opportunities and give him the option to run a bit more, but I think this is an overall negative. Also, he's such an elite fielder, that you have to be mindful when reading up on how much experts love him - considering not everything is 100% fantasy related.

Mark Trumbo, OF +Arizona Diamondbacks
What the experts say: He's moving to a better hitters park! He's going to hit 40 home runs!

What I think: When I heard Todd Zola gush all over Trumbo, I was blown away. Sure the power is there, but Trumbo has been so inconsistent and prone to strike out so much that it usually leads to him falling off a cliff in the 2nd half. I was really blown away from the praise coming Trumbo's way.

Season	Monthly	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Total	1st Half	257	1047	61	132	161	14	0.268
Total	2nd Half	203	824	35	89	129	4	0.227
*Fangraphs

Xander Bogaerts, SS +Boston Red Sox
What the experts say: He's a future multiple time All-Star. He has a cool approach to the plate, and when he was inserted into a World Series' lineup he wasn't phased at all. The power is coming, and some sites have him ranked as a top 5 SS for 2014.

What I think: I'm a fan of the X-man. I have no doubt he'll be a very solid baseball player. I do worry about him being my everyday SS in fantasy, as I think he's probably a little bit away from starting to capitalize on his potential.

Khris Davis, OF +Milwaukee Brewers
What the experts say: He has the power and now an everyday spot in an underrated Brewers' lineup. He can approach 30 HR and hit for a decent average.

What I think: Every year experts go nuts over young power hitters. Whether it's Kyle Blanks or Wily Mo Pena or Giancarlo Stanton there are a lot more misses than hits. People were right about Stanton, but Blanks and Pena are and became barely serviceable pinch hitters. Davis has a real likelihood of being exposed when playing everyday.

Will a new approach help make Ivan Nova a superstar? (bronxbaseballdaily.com)

Ivan Nova, SP +Yankees 101
What the experts think: Nova battled through health issues again last year, but very quietly put together his best ERA and WHIP in his Yankee career. He improved his control and ditched throwing his average fastball so much in favor of distributing those pitches to a cutter and sinker. This took his K's a step down, but improved his ground ball percentage and thus his sparkling ratios.

What I think: This guy never stays health, and he's prone to blow up as much as Gavin Floyd in his prime. He's an unreliable starter in a brutal division who happens to pitch in a terrible park. He's frustrating and I won't feel good putting him out there 80% of the time.

Rick Porcello, SP +Detroit Tigers
What the experts think: Porcello has finally started to figure out his pitching. He's generating more ground balls, striking more batters out, and all of that points to even more improvement in 2014. He's a player that should easily out perform his auction day purchase price.

What I think: If there's a pitching version of Brandon Belt, it's Porcello. Experts love all of his underlying stats, except for the fact that when he's on the mound he hardly strikes anyone out and can't be trusted start after start. His bad outings (see the first picture in this article) are enough to off-set any discrepancy between his ERA and FIP. Also with Jose Iglesias out most of the year, he won't have the benefit of that slick fielding shortstop to gobble up all his grounders.

Koji Uehara, RP +Boston Red Sox
What the experts think: Uehara has one of the most unhittable pitches in all of baseball, his splitter. He had the best season of any closer in 2013 and remained unhittable throughout the playoffs. But, he's old and he's always had the injury bugaboo following him. His high usage last year and propensity to give up home runs make him unlikely to repeat last year's success this year. He's outside the top 5 closers in fantasy.

What I think: Not every expert is going to make you want to draft a player. In this case, the experts have kept me away from Uehara this year. I have always like Koji back to his Baltimore days, and having him on several teams last year, I can say that he was dynamite. It bothers me that a lot of the things experts are pointing at are not statistical based but eventuality based. It's likely he'll get hurt, it's likely he won't be as successful. I think Uehara can still be a top 5 closer, but the experts have kept me away.

Corey Kluber, SP +Cleveland Indians
What the experts think: I've written about Kluber, I like Kluber. I hope he does well.

What I think: I've written about Kluber, I like Kluber. I hope he does well. Hey, we're all in the Kluber fan club whether we want to be or not.

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Ranks Rounds 8-10

2014-04-01T13:47:00.000-04:00

Enough closer craziness for you on Day 1? (AP Photo, USAT, ESPN)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

With the baseball season under way, we've seen a lot of madness already. Particularly on the closer front. Whether done in by managers or injuries 4 closers have been displaced in 24 hours sending waiver and FAAB budgets into a frenzy.

Valverde, K-Rod, Lindstrom & S Santos are all closers now. None were 4 days ago. How many time we gotta say it? Never pay for saves.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) April 1, 2014

Personally, I would only invest confidently in Sergio Santos. He has the skills and closer experience (TM) to keep the job from the oft-injured Casey Janssen.

Matt Lindstrom couldn't save on 2-ply at Costco. Robin Ventura seems to like to mess with closers at the beginning of the year for whatever reason. Let's see if Lindstrom goes out there in back-to-back opportunities or high leverage situations. I feel like Nate Jones is only a setup man for a brief moment in time.

Jose Valverde and Francisco Rodriguez have combined for close to 600 saves total (591) so they have the closer experience stink all over them. Unbeknownst to apparently every fantasy writer out there, incumbent Brewers' closer Jim Henderson looked like garbage this spring, leading to Bob Melvin's shocking decision to insert K-Rod until Henderson figures himself out. Well, Henderson isn't exactly Lee Smith, so who knows when that correction will happen ... like in ever.

Due to Bobby Parnell's unfortunate elbow tear, he is likely heading for Tommy John surgery. Papa Grande is next on the bullpen list, but I can only seriously consider a minimum bid on him. Bottom 1/3 of your league for a waiver bid and I threw a couple of dollars at him in some leagues as a 4th closer. I hope to God that I don't get him, but much like the lottery, $1 could get you some dividends. I'd monitor Valverde to see when he puts together a couple rough outings then go in for Jeurys Familia.

We are pumping out some rankings to get to 250 sooner rather than later. The updated list, with Jose Reyes tumbling down it is further down.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM
97	Matt Cain	SP	20	SF
98	Mat Latos	SP	21	CIN
99	Danny Salazar	SP	22	CLE
100	Sonny Gray	SP	23	OAK
101	Victor Martinez	1B	14	DET
102	Brandon Belt	1B	15	SF
103	Trevor Rosenthal	RP	5	STL
104	Shelby Miller	SP	24	STL
105	Chase Utley	2B	8	PHI
106	Gio Gonzalez	SP	25	WAS
107	Andrew Cashner	SP	26	SD
108	Gerrit Cole	SP	27	PIT
109	Billy Butler	1B	16	KC
110	Martin Prado	SS	10	ARZ
111	Jedd Gyorko	2B	9	SD
112	Jonathan Lucroy	C	6	MIL
113	Cole Hamels	SP	28	PHI
114	Desmond Jennings	OF	29	TB
115	Brian McCann	C	7	NYY
116	Jose Reyes	SS	11	TOR
117	Brett Gardner	OF	30	NYY
118	Aaron Hill	2B	10	ARZ
119	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	29	LAD
120	Koji Uehara	RP	6	BOS

On Deck: Brad Miller, Austin Jackson, David Robertson

OVERALL RANKINGS SO FAR

Note: I screwed up the numbers for my SS changes, so while nothing is listed, they were certainly moved around.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL
10	Chris Davis	1B	3	TOR
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	NYY
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE
20	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX
21	Evan Longoria	3B	4	TB
22	Stephen Strasburg	SP	2	WAS
23	David Wright	3B	5	NYM
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS
25	Chris Sale	SP	3	CHI
26	Felix Hernanez	SP	4	SEA
27	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
28	Yu Darvish	SP	5	TEX
29	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
30	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
31	Adam Wainwright	SP	6	STL
32	Cliff Lee	SP	7	PHI
33	Hunter Pence	OF	10	TOR
34	Jose Bautista	OF	11	TOR
35	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	12	MIA
36	Justin Verlander	SP	8	DET
37	Justin Upton	OF	13	ATL
38	Elvis Andrus	SS	4	TEX
39	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	14	TEX
40	Craig Kimbrel	RP	1	ATL
41	David Price	SP	9	TB
42	Matt Holliday	OF	15	STL
43	Buster Posey	C	1	SF
44	Jose Fernandez	SP	10	MIA
45	David Ortiz	1B	6	BOS
46	Madison Bumgarner	SP	11	SF
47	Max Scherzer	SP	12	DET
48	Jay Bruce	OF	16	CIN
49	Ian Kinsler	2B	4	DET
50	Yasiel Puig	OF	17	LAD
51	Eric Hosmer	1B	7	KC
52	Zack Greinke	SP	13	LAD
53	Starling Marte	OF	18	PIT
54	Albert Pujols	1B	8	LAA
55	Jean Segura	SS	5	MIL
56	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	9	LAD
57	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	19	OAK
58	Homer Bailey	SP	14	CIN
59	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2	CIN
60	Allen Craig	1B	10	STL
61	Jason Heyward	OF	20	ATL
62	Matt Carpenter	2B	5	STL
63	Pedro Alvarez	3B	6	PIT
64	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	7	WAS
65	Everth Cabrera	SS	6	SD
66	Kenley Jansen	RP	3	LAD
67	Jose Altuve	2B	6	HOU
68	Wil Myers	OF	21	TB
69	Joe Mauer	C	2	MIN
70	Jayson Werth	OF	22	WAS
71	Alex Gordon	OF	23	KC
72	Shane Victorino	OF	24	BOS
73	Jose Abreu	1B	11	CHW
74	Anibal Sanchez	SP	15	DET
75	Starlin Castro	SS	7	CHC
76	Alex Cobb	SP	16	TB
77	Greg Holland	RP	4	KC
78	Josh Donaldson	3B	8	OAK
79	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12	CHC
80	Mark Trumbo	1B	13	ARZ
81	Yadier Molina	C	3	STL
82	Kyle Seager	3B	9	SEA
83	James Shields	SP	17	KC
84	Josh Hamilton	OF	25	LAA
85	Pablo Sandoval	3B	10	SF
86	Billy Hamilton	OF	26	CIN
87	Ben Zobrist	SS	8	TB
88	Carlos Santana	C	4	CLE
89	Manny Machado	3B	11	BAL
90	Wilin Rosario	C	5	COL
91	Carlos Beltran	OF	27	NYY
92	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	18	WAS
93	Xander Bogaerts	SS	9	BOS
94	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	19	NYY
95	Brett Lawrie	2B	7	TOR
96	Matt Kemp	OF	28	LAD
97	Matt Cain	SP	20	SF
98	Mat Latos	SP	21	CIN
99	Danny Salazar	SP	22	CLE
100	Sonny Gray	SP	23	OAK
101	Victor Martinez	1B	14	DET
102	Brandon Belt	1B	15	SF
103	Trevor Rosenthal	RP	5	STL
104	Shelby Miller	SP	24	STL
105	Chase Utley	2B	8	PHI
106	Gio Gonzalez	SP	25	WAS
107	Andrew Cashner	SP	26	SD
108	Gerrit Cole	SP	27	PIT
109	Billy Butler	1B	16	KC
110	Martin Prado	SS	10	ARZ
111	Jedd Gyorko	2B	9	SD
112	Jonathan Lucroy	C	6	MIL
113	Cole Hamels	SP	28	PHI
114	Desmond Jennings	OF	29	TB
115	Brian McCann	C	7	NYY
116	Jose Reyes	SS	11	TOR
117	Brett Gardner	OF	30	NYY
118	Aaron Hill	2B	10	ARZ
119	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	29	LAD
120	Koji Uehara	RP	6	BOS

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Ranks - Rounds 6 through 8

2014-03-27T11:33:00.000-04:00

Why is Everth Cabrera getting different treatment compared to other PED users? (utsandiego.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Not to double up on the content, but rounds 6 through 8 have a lot of my Mancrush picks I wrote about last week. Of course, the list isn't off to a great start after Jurickson Profar profar'd everyone that drafted him, but anyway what you'll find are a lot of players I'm more bullish on; ready to pick ahead of most people's ADP. I dislike to use the word reaching because that indicates you're selecting someone above where you think they should be selected. I'm simply using my personal rankings and picking thusly.

This is a big reason I started doing my own ranks; to play off the ADP and know when I wanted and didn't want to take a player. Personal rankings have your own touch to them, so if you have confidence in yourself, you should take the time to do it. The rankings beyond the first 5 rounds really start getting muddy when you compare them amongst ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, etc. There are sites that pool all of this information together for you, but I always like to know how I feel about certain players - not just an average of these sites. I've been refining my ranking system, and this is the year I've probably leaned the most heavily on it in live drafts. By that I mean, if I take Jose Altuve, I largely have no idea if the people I'm drafting with think I'm taking him too early or too late. And, for the first time, I don't care.

It's always important to preface this by saying, I have someone like Pedro Alvarez ranked #63 overall. Now, in a snake draft, that doesn't mean I would take him with the 63rd pick. If he's ranked 80+ on the site I'm using, well I'm going to assume that most people are operating within the confines of that sites rankings. Very rarely will I see another owner take someone out of the blue and think that they made a wise choice. Usually it's someone taking Curtis Granderson in the 3rd Round or something. So, I will bide my time. If Alvarez it ticketed to go 87th overall, I won't use my 6th Round pick, but maybe I'll jump early in the 7th or depending on how the picks fall, happily take him in the 8th or 9th Round. There's no sound strategy to knowing when a player will be taken, but by following your own ranks and playing them off the site's ranks there is plenty of room for added value. Now a couple of notes on players that weren't MANCRUSHED...

I've been a Ryan Zimmerman defender for a long time, but he once again needed a huge final couple of months in 2013 to get to the numbers his owners were hoping for. He says his shoulder feels better than ever, but realistically last year should have been a return to form. I'm not saying that Zimmerman can't get back to 25 HR and 80+RBI, but I will note all it will take is him not being able to find his magic bat in August and September to have a very disappointing season.

The more I see of Jose Abreu the more I like him. The Cuban slugger is battling some ankle issues from apparently wearing quality baseball cleats, but he should be able to adjust and move past that rather smoothly. I mentioned earlier that Spring Training stats are largely useless, but it's been helpful to see what Abreu can do. What I do see is a guy with legit power and a guy that isn't striking out a lot. For all the talk of his home run potential, I'd be surprised if he batted under .270 for the year. His floor is much higher than many think.

Everth Cabrera is at the middle of one of my myths of the offseason so far. The first was the love for Clayton Kershaw (justified) by experts drafting him as high as 3rd overall in drafts (not justified). If you want to go ahead and do that, then you have to accept that Kershaw - in all his greatness - isn't that much better than Darvish or Wainwright or Scherzer of 2013 and those players should be bumped up your draft board as well.

The E-Cab myth is that while players like Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz and the other PED suspendees are being dragged through the mud, Cabrera is somehow being projected to have a career year. PEDs can certainly help power, but the skill set around them remains unchanged. No one thinks Braun is going to hit 12 HR or that Jhonny Peralta will hit .220 AVG, but they're being cast in a negative light. Well, if you're anti those guys, how can you not be more anti-Cabrera? This was a guy that last year was having a career year batting at a higher average than ever before, with 4 HR (he has 9 total in his career), and stole 37 bases in 94 games. Sure seems like something might have been helping him out! PEDs won't make Cabrera a 30 HR hitter, but will it keep him healthy or give him more velocity on balls he makes contact with? Presumably. But for whatever reason - I guess because he's fast and not a power hitter - he's getting to capitalize on his 2013 numbers. Something no suspended PED user has been blessed with. If Cabrera truly can capitalize on those strides from last year, then he has the ability to be the 2nd or 3rd ranked shortstop overall. I'm leaning more towards Cabrera, yes, making strides, but more in line with his career averages. He has made changes to his approach at the plate to get on base more, which will translate to steal opportunities. Also, I'm not mad at the Padres' offense this year. I can see a solid year from Cabrera if he can stay healthy, but let's not forget a straight extrapolation of his 2013 numbers would be rather ridiculous.

Really like what I've been seeing from Jordan Zimmermann. He appears to have worked on correcting his biggest problem from 2013, a low K rate. This is the first apperance he's made on my ranks in 2014, but as I've been updating them week to week, he's taken large leaps up the board.

I'm comfortable with Billy Hamilton at #86 overall. The Reds didn't give him a roster spot to send him down in May. He'll get a shot, and even if he can't handle lead-off duties, he is still in a position batting in the bottom of the order where he can steal a lot of bases. Like a lot, a lot. Hamilton even showed that as strictly a bench player he can make a huge impact as most of his opportunities in 2013 were from the pine to the field as a pinch runner. He has value, and in a roto league can free your roster up in a lot of ways come draft day. Let's hope he can do his namesake proud.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM
61	Jason Heyward	OF	20	ATL
62	Matt Carpenter	2B	5	STL
63	Pedro Alvarez	3B	6	PIT
64	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	7	WAS
65	Elvis Andrus	SS	6	TEX
66	Kenley Jansen	RP	3	LAD
67	Jose Altuve	2B	6	HOU
68	Wil Myers	OF	21	TB
69	Joe Mauer	C	2	MIN
70	Jayson Werth	OF	22	WAS
71	Alex Gordon	OF	23	KC
72	Shane Victorino	OF	24	BOS
73	Jose Abreu	1B	11	CHW
74	Anibal Sanchez	SP	15	DET
75	Everth Cabrera	SS	7	SD
76	Alex Cobb	SP	16	TB
77	Greg Holland	RP	4	KC
78	Josh Donaldson	3B	8	OAK
79	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12	CHC
80	Mark Trumbo	1B	13	ARZ
81	Yadier Molina	C	3	STL
82	Kyle Seager	3B	9	SEA
83	James Shields	SP	17	KC
84	Josh Hamilton	OF	25	LAA
85	Pablo Sandoval	3B	10	SF
86	Billy Hamilton	OF	26	CIN
87	Ben Zobrist	SS	8	TB
88	Carlos Santana	C	4	CLE
89	Manny Machado	3B	11	BAL
90	Wilin Rosario	C	5	COL
91	Carlos Beltran	OF	27	NYY
92	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	18	WAS
93	Starlin Castro	SS	9	CHC
94	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	19	NYY
95	Brett Lawrie	2B	7	TOR
96	Matt Kemp	OF	28	LAD

On Deck: Danny Salazar, Sonny Gray, Brandon Belt

OVERALL THUS FAR

We are finally starting to see some shifting around of the rankings. This is obviously the result of the start of the regular season nearing and some injuries/issues taking their toll. Very little of this has to do with Spring Training performances because aside from health - the statistics mean next to nothing.

Yu Darvish came down with another nagging injury from sleeping, and he will now start the season on the DL. I literally mentioned this a couple weeks ago as a concern for Darvish, and while he has been cleared from any serious injury, this is something I can no longer ignore. The competition at SP is steep, so this is enough for me to drop him down my rankings. Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale move up to #2 and #3 starting pitchers respectively, with Felix Hernandez and then Yu Darvish following suit.

In the outfield there has been some rumbling with Yasiel Puig tumbling down to my rankings. He's already gotten into some on-field issues due to his horrid base running and 'tude. Combine that with his apparent incessant "injuries" to his back and shoulders. Something isn't right with this guy.

Avenge me, Justin Upton! AVENGE ME!

Final note, Justin Verlander is coming, boys and girls.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL
10	Chris Davis	1B	3	TOR
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	NYY
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE	20
20	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX	19
21	Evan Longoria	3B	4	TB
22	Stephen Strasburg	SP	2	WAS	28
23	David Wright	3B	5	NYM
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS
25	Chris Sale	SP	3	CHI	26
26	Felix Hernanez	SP	4	SEA	25
27	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
28	Yu Darvish	SP	5	TEX	22
29	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
30	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
31	Adam Wainwright	SP	6	STL
32	Cliff Lee	SP	7	PHI
33	Hunter Pence	OF	10	TOR
34	Jose Bautista	OF	11	TOR
35	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	12	MIA	37
36	Justin Verlander	SP	8	DET	41
37	Justin Upton	OF	13	ATL	35
38	Jose Reyes	SS	4	TOR
39	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	14	TEX
40	Craig Kimbrel	RP	1	ATL
41	David Price	SP	9	TB	36
42	Matt Holliday	OF	15	STL	50
43	Buster Posey	C	1	SF
44	Jose Fernandez	SP	10	MIA
45	David Ortiz	1B	6	BOS
46	Madison Bumgarner	SP	11	SF
47	Max Scherzer	SP	12	DET
48	Jay Bruce	OF	16	CIN
49	Ian Kinsler	2B	4	DET
50	Yasiel Puig	OF	17	LAD	42
51	Eric Hosmer	1B	7	KC
52	Zack Greinke	SP	13	LAD
53	Starling Marte	OF	18	PIT
54	Albert Pujols	1B	8	LAA
55	Jean Segura	SS	5	MIL
56	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	9	LAD
57	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	19	OAK
58	Homer Bailey	SP	14	CIN
59	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2	CIN
60	Allen Craig	1B	10	STL
61	Jason Heyward	OF	20	ATL
62	Matt Carpenter	2B	5	STL
63	Pedro Alvarez	3B	6	PIT
64	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	7	WAS
65	Elvis Andrus	SS	6	TEX
66	Kenley Jansen	RP	3	LAD
67	Jose Altuve	2B	6	HOU
68	Wil Myers	OF	21	TB
69	Joe Mauer	C	2	MIN
70	Jayson Werth	OF	22	WAS
71	Alex Gordon	OF	23	KC
72	Shane Victorino	OF	24	BOS
73	Jose Abreu	1B	11	CHW
74	Anibal Sanchez	SP	15	DET
75	Everth Cabrera	SS	7	SD
76	Alex Cobb	SP	16	TB
77	Greg Holland	RP	4	KC
78	Josh Donaldson	3B	8	OAK
79	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12	CHC
80	Mark Trumbo	1B	13	ARZ
81	Yadier Molina	C	3	STL
82	Kyle Seager	3B	9	SEA
83	James Shields	SP	17	KC
84	Josh Hamilton	OF	25	LAA
85	Pablo Sandoval	3B	10	SF
86	Billy Hamilton	OF	26	CIN
87	Ben Zobrist	SS	8	TB
88	Carlos Santana	C	4	CLE
89	Manny Machado	3B	11	BAL
90	Wilin Rosario	C	5	COL
91	Carlos Beltran	OF	27	NYY
92	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	18	WAS
93	Starlin Castro	SS	9	CHC
94	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	19	NYY
95	Brett Lawrie	2B	7	TOR
96	Matt Kemp	OF	28	LAD

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 MANCRUSHED Picks

2014-03-20T13:37:00.000-04:00

Chris Davis is one of the many successful alumns from last year's Mancrush list. (cbssports.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

One of the highlights of my Fantasy Baseball stuff last year was my Mancrush picks. Basically, position by position I went through a couple of deeper options for players and gave a preferred choice followed by a He'll Do choice to add a little meat to the sleeper bone.

Turned out it was an amazing success. Players like Mike Napoli, Allen Craig, Chris Davis, Starling Marte, Domonic Brown, Matt Harvey (RIP), Hisashi Iwakuma, and Kenley Jansen all had their names named. Sure, there was a sprinkling of Jesus Montero and Will Middlebrooks in there, but overall I was happy with the results. Frozen in time for all to see.

Well, it's time to move on. I've linked to this article about a million times, so I think I've patted myself on the back enough. As we move on from the 2013 picks, we can look forward to the 2014 class. The main modification I have is that I will be including players that, yes, are highly ranked, but higher on my personal ranks than others. For example, last year I was also very high on Paul Goldschmidt and Yu Darvish, so as a result I stayed away from the Top 50 or so players. Well, if I think the player ranked #49 could be a top #20 player that's something I should highlight. Don't think I'm taking the easy way out there, those highly ranked players that make an appearance on here are few and far between. We're opening up the goodie bag to see who is worth the wait in fantasy.

Wilson Ramos seems to be ready to finally breakout. (latimes.com)

C - Wilson Ramos, WAS
People have been waiting for Ramos' breakout for some time now. He his 15 HR in 113 games for the Nationals in 2011, but then in the off season was kidnapped in his local Venezuela. It couldn't be easy to come back from something like that, but Ramos did get 25 games of action in 2012 before tearing his ACL. Last year, with a clear mind and plenty of potential, he was knocked off track due to separate hamstring issues. He did manage to stay health from July on - smacking 14 HR and building momentum for 2014. His .199 ISO ranked him 4th amongst catchers with at least 350 PA. Catching is deep this year, and if you can wait and nab Ramos as the 9th or 10th catcher off the board, there is plenty of room for profit with him.

He'll Do - Miguel Montero, ARZ
2013 was a terrible year for Montero. The usually steady producing catcher fell off a cliff with career lows across the board. It really just looks like whatever could go wrong for Montero did. He shouldn't be in a state of decline, but his usually nice #4 spot in the batting order could be in jeopardy in Arizona. That'll dip his numbers below his career average, but the power and RBI totals could still be there.

Jose Abreu is primed for success in 2014. (majoronions.com)

1B - Jose Abreu, CHW
The latest Cuban sensation to come to America is also the most highly touted. He first came across my purview in this Grantland piece by Jonah Keri in early 2012. Needless to say, I was intrigued. It's obvious that he won't put up those kinds of numbers in the majors, but it's not as though he didn't do what he did in Cuba. The guy is a hitter. He's had major success in every tournament he's been in (including the World Baseball Classic) and it just seems to me he's getting more negative pub than all of the former Cubans combined. I'm assuming a majority of this is to temper expectations that he's the next Yasiel Puig, which he isn't - a quick look at their height and weight will confirm their skill sets, but in doing so they're greatly underrating Abreu. He hasn't set the world on fire in spring training, but who really cares about that? He isn't striking out a lot, hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and showing good discipline and getting rave reviews for his work ethic. Pending any on-going issues with his ankles, I would expect him to play everyday and crack at least 25 home runs, but contrary to many reports, I don't see a 3-true-outcome players, but a well rounded one. I've been happy to gobble him up in the 10th or 11th rounds in drafts this year.

He'll Do - Victor Martinez, DET
Some fantasy sites have him listed as a utility player only, but Yahoo has him at 1B, so this is where I'll put him. Martinez lost his catcher eligibility last year only appearing there 3 times. This was a loss in someways, but largely a benefit to the aging batsman. He got off to a slow start, but post-All Star break raked to the tune of a .913 OPS. This year he'll be in the clean-up spot behind Miguel Cabrera with ample opportunities to drive in runs. As an added bonus, there's a chance he could regain his catcher eligibility around mid-season due to new Tigers' coach Brad Ausmus playing him there during interleague games. Could be a fantastic year for V-Mart.

Javier Baez is destroying baseballs so far this spring. (USAT)

2B - Jose Altuve, HOU
The problem I have with analysts that undervalue speed is that they often say, "Well you can get that later in drafts as opposed to power," or, "Why use an early pick on Elvis Andrus when you can just take Jonathan Villar with your last pick?" Well, the reason for taking an Andrus type over Villar is obvious: Andrus plays everyday, in a top line-up, and won't hit .220. Okay, not a fair comp? How about Villar's teammate Jose Altuve? The Twitter-famous Altuve is able to steal 30+ bases, hit for a decent average, and depending on how the rest of the Astros' line-up looks - score 90+ runs. The Astros are in the process of getting better, and as they do, so will Altuve. I have him as my 6th ranked 2B.

He'll Do - Javier Baez, CHC
Baez is the prospect creating the most buzz this Spring Training. His swing and bat speed have had scouts swooning for the past year as he hit 37 home runs across two levels in the minors. The expectation coming into camp is that Baez would start the season in AAA, demolish pitching there, and come up in June. Well, 5 home runs later (2 off of proven MLB'ers Randy Wolf and Marco Estrada) might be changing the Cubs' stance. It's not only that Baez is still in camp, but that the Cubs have played him a lot. With Starlin Castro still not 100% Baez has made the most of his opportunity filling in for the Cubs' franchise shortstop. His bat is almost certainly MLB ready, but his fielding leaves much to be desired. The hope is that he'll be able to adapt to a less demanding position at 2B and remove Darwin Barney. I have to imagine that this will happen sooner rather than later. And while I'm taking these with a grain of salt, look at Oliver's 5 year projections for Baez and try not to get a little excited:

Season	Age	HR	R	RBI	SB	wOBA	WAR
2014	21	35	79	98	12	0.337	4.3
2015	22	40	84	107	12	0.357	5.3
2016	23	43	88	114	12	0.372	6.1
2017	24	45	90	118	12	0.381	6.5
2018	25	46	91	120	12	0.385	6.7

Pedro Alvarez has some power for you. (postgazette.com)

3B - Pedro Alvarez, PIT
People just seem to be down on sluggers these days. Alvarez, like Abreu, is more known for the negative things he does at the plate than the positive. Yes, his .233 AVG last year was brutal, and he'll never be a Top 25 guy hitting like that, but what he is able to do is hit a baseball over the outfield wall. He got off to a bit of a slow start before a monster June gave him 24 home runs before the All-Star Break. He again showed some trade mark streakiness in the second half finishing with an NL-tying lead of 35 home runs. Alvarez is all power, but in today's game that's not a terrible thing. While he is going to strike out a lot and you will need to bench him against lefties, what he has improved on is his ability to hit breaking pitches for power (he hit 15 of those). All he needs is a bit more patience at the plate, and in his new home as the Buccs clean-up hitter a 40 HR 100 RBI season nears.

He'll Do - Kyle Seager, SEA
This is not a cheat because while I had Seager on my list last year, he was a 2B. This year, he's only 3B eligible. When you look at Seager's numbers overall, you see a player that made minimal improvements over his 2012 campaign, which was still good. What people should realize is that Seager was on pace for close to 30 HR and batting in the high .200s before a horrific slump over the last 50 games of the season dragged his numbers back down to a respectable, yet uninspiring level. Think about it, this is a guy that finished with better numbers than 2012 despite hitting .194 with 4 HR in August and .172 with 1 HR in September. This could be a red flag, but batting in front of Robinson Cano I'm picking Seager to capitalize on the strides he made last year.

A steady home at 2B will help Profar excel at the plate. (cbssports.com)

SS - Jurickson Profar, TEX
Carrying around multiple position eligibility due to his playing time last year in Texas, Profar is ready to take on his first full season in the majors. The former top prospect in all of baseball will be slotted low in the Rangers' batting order, but should Elvis Andrus be hurt or even struggle, Profar could creep his way up. Profar is still a work in progress on offense, but with Ron Washington's free wheeling ways on the base paths, I would expect Profar to benefit with double digit steals, low teens in home runs, and the benefit of him being near the bottom of the lineup is that he's not too far away from Shin-Soo Choo and the top of the Rangers' lineup to drive him in. I would expect a 2013 Ben Zobrist output for Profar this year.

He'll Do - Brad Miller, SEA
First things first, he has to win the starting shortstop job in Seattle over Nick Franklin. Then after that Miller can be a productive middle infielder. When Miller was called up last year, it wasn't to much fan fare primarily due to the fact that he was at the tail end of a bunch of Mariners' call ups that didn't do much to thrill fantasy owners. Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Brandon Maurer, and even Taijuan Walker did a ho-hum job. Miller, however, had 8 HR 36 RBI and 5 SB in 306 at bats. Also, out of his 81 hits, he had 11 doubles and 9 triples. He's a good hitter who can increase his batting average, and locking down an everyday spot for the Mariners should push him towards 15/15 range in 2014.

Thin mints and samoas! Bryce Harper continues to be the man. (deadspin.com)

OF - Bryce Harper, WAS
It's Bryce, with a "Y." Anyway, I've talked about him, written about him, and continue to be geared up for his monster year that is coming. My rule for Harper in 2014 is this: Any draft I get him in the 2nd round, I'm winning the league.

They'll Do -
Jason Heyward, ATL
Is it time to readjust what kind of player Heyward will be? He'll be batting lead off for the Braves in 2014 thanks to his ability to get on base. This doesn't mean he won't hit for power like many people expected him to, but if he takes off as a lead off hitter then he won't exactly be driving in 130 RBI. But if he can score 100+ with 20+HR and he's allowed to steal again ... that's some kind of player. One could even say a new breed of lead off hitter. 2014 is definitely an experiment for Heyward, but that doesn't mean it won't work out well. Also, with him being one of the few young Braves to not sign a big extension, he could be hitting the road in a few to most likely be that middle of the order bopper. The dream isn't dead, Jason!

Jayson Werth, WAS
On to another Jayson. Werth torched baseball last year. In only 129 games last year, Werth still finished as a top 30 player. Surprisingly, his 2013 was a throw back to his glory days in Philadelphia. Werth is underrated due to his age and injury history, but he is in the position to hit for power, score runs, and steal double digit bases. His ADP is 81, and I'd jump a round earlier to get him.

Brandon Moss, OAK
You'll definitely need to platoon him against lefties, but against righties he mashes. Over the past year and a half, he's hit 51 home runs and has ISO of .306 and .267. The power is real, and the A's utilize him to the max.

Alejandra de Aza, CHW?
With the addition of Adam Eaton in the off season it's possible that de Aza will find himself as a part time player in Chicago, which is a shame because he is able to bring a good mix of power and speed to the table. He went 17/20 last year, and in a full-time gig could get to 20/20.

Christian Yelich, MIA
If you're looking for a de Aza type that's going to be playing all the time, then look at Christian Yelich. The highly touted prospect went 4/10 in 62 games with a respectable .288 AVG. This year he will be batting in front of Giancarlo Stanton so it's tough to know how that will affect his steal numbers, but Yelich has some pop and he could potentially score 75+ runs.

Not Graphs: Homer Bailey looks just like Christian Bale. (mlb.com)

SP - Homer Bailey, CIN
Anyone that has done any research in fantasy this year knows this about Homer Bailey: He has improved his strikout-to-walk ratio in each of his seven seasons in the bigs. This is important because it shows a player that is obviously getting better, but also a player that started in a pretty rough spot. When Bailey debuted in 2007, he was a 21-year-old elite pitching prospect from Texas. He had limited success early on, regularly posting mid-4.00 ERAs and high WHIPs. While it has been a slow and gradual improvement, Bailey took a leap forward the past two years increasing his K% to 18.9% and eclipsing the 20% mark at 23.4% last year to put him in elite status. Bailey has been over 200 IP in his last two seasons and if his trends continue he could become an elite starter this year. There may not be much more improvement left for Bailey, but he is entering his prime years as an ace.

They'll Do -
West Coast Pitchers - Hyun-jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy
I'm classifying Ryu and Cashner as pretty sure things this year, meaning, they both had a solid 2013 and have the pedigree to continue doing good things in 2014. Both are underrated. The remaining pitchers ceratinly do interest me a lot. Sonny Gray is being mentioned in the same breath as fellow hyped young pitcher Danny Salazar, and while they bring different skills to the table it's really a toss up between these two for pitching supremacy. The opinions on both are split. I've seen a bit more negative stuff on Gray, but Salazar will almost certainly have an innings cap along with some control issues he'll have to work through as well. Gray is on the better team and better environment, so I'm happy to cast my support for him in 2014.

Kazmir and Kennedy are reclamation projects. Kazmir started his road back to meaningful fantasy innings last year in Cleveland. His velocity on his fastball ticked up 2 MPH and threw a solid albeit up and down 158 IP, but his K/9 was over 9. Health will always be an issue with Kazmir. If he can stay health he should be able to add some innings and lower his ERA back to a mid-3.00 range. Kennedy on the other hand is hoping a full season in San Diego will help him. Kennedy's production is tied strictly to his walk rate. As he's walked more batters, he's gotten worse. His fly ball tendencies didn't play well in Arizona, but Petco should help him out a bit. I have Kennedy in a couple of leagues, but if he struggles with his command early on, he'll be out the door quickly.

Justin Masterson, CLE
Underrated off of last year's performance, as well as being overshadowed by Salazar and Corey Kluber.

Marco Estrada, MIL
It can get ugly sometimes for Estrada. He isn't a set it and forget it pitcher and the bad part is, you never know when he might toss a stinker. Overall though, he is underrated. In the second half he had a 5/1 K:BB ratio, and while he still loved to give up the long ball, treated his owners to a 2.15 ERA. Hopefully he gets his act together earlier this year, but he has the potential to be a solid starter.

Kevin Gausman, BAL
At this point, Gausman has no spot on the Orioles' major league roster. Why that is, I have no clue. If you don't want to bump Bud Norris from your rotation, okay, whatever. But if you want to keep trotting Tommy Hunter out there to close games AND keep Norris in the rotation, that's an issue. Gausman certainly had a poor first season, but as a back of the bullpen force late in the season found his form. Gausman is one of those players that should be treated in the Archie Bradleys of the world as the next big pitching prospect to get the call. Gausman has had a strong spring, so there's still hope he'll break camp which would mean whether as a reliever or starter; he should be owned.

A Marlins' Pitcher not named Jose Fernandez - Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner
This is purely a gut call. I remember watching some Marlins' games last year and seeing flickers of potential. Eovaldi and Turner both have highly touted arms. Eovaldi has one of the best fastballs in baseball, but each of these three have issues. Alvarez is a low strike out guy, Turner has control issues, and Eovaldi's lack of a decent 2nd pitch leaves his fastball open to be crushed. Of course playing for the Marlins will limit their win opportunities, but I just have a feeling something has to click for one of these pitchers.

Hector Santiago, LAA
Santiago tends to get hit around a bit. His WHIP the last two seasons are 1.34 and 1.40, but his K% has been over 20% the past two as well. A move to Los Angeles might help calm some of these issues, and he might be a great candidate to start out the season hot, but fizzle toward the second half.

DL Pitchers - Kris Medlen, A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker, Patrick Corbin
So, there have been a lot of pitching injuries so far, huh?

Mitch Williams doing Mitch Williams things. (GETTY)

RP - Nate Jones, CHW
There's always a new closer primed to make a big jump year after year. Nate Jones is that player. His high strike outs and killer slider suit him nicely in the Southside. Former closer Addison Reed never had any issues finding save opportunities, and while - like Reed - Jones won't be an elite option when it comes to ERA and WHIP, he'll make up for it with close to 30 saves and a K/9 of 10+.

They'll Do -
David Robertson, NYY
There's the pressure of closing out a game and the pressure of living up to Mariano Rivera. With plenty of notice Robertson looks to take over for Mo in 2014. Robertson has to wiggle himself out of some jams, and while it would have been nice to see him take the reigns 2 years ago when Rivera went down with a torn ACL, it appears that with limited competition Robertson will have to lay an egg to lose this spot.

Ernesto Frieri, LAA
High Ks and a lot of uneasiness. There's just something I find intriguing about crazy closers. Guess growing up as a Phillies fan during the late 80's and 90's will do that to you.

Cody Allen, CLE/Tyler Clippard, WAS
Which incumbent starter is losing his job first? Likely John Axford, but you must always be vigilant. These two work frequently enough and rack up enough Ks that it's worth giving an P spot up to them.

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - Rounds 4 & 5

2014-03-17T09:03:00.000-04:00

When attitude matters. (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Over the past 4 or 5 years, I've become much more interested in the statistics of baseball. It tells as good a story as any drama a newspaper can cook up, but the best part is that more often than not, those stats have an impact on the field. Now, I'd like to think that this is an advantage over people that are less data driven in the fantasy realm. But as much as I like to play the fake Nate Silver, it's hard to deny that while numbers never lie, these are ego driven athletes who do let their circumstances effect them.

Prince Fielder attributed a down year to marital stress. Two years ago, Jacoby Ellsbury was fighting with the Red Sox's training staff. These are players that are going to have issues at one time or another. No fantasy analyst is going to assume or predict when something like this may happen or how it will distract said player, but there are issues where it's clear to most that trouble is lurking. That point seems quite prescient in regards to Giancarlo Stanton.

The Marlins' powerhouse is one of the brightest young stars in baseball. Despite a myriad of injuries, Stanton has managed 117 home runs in 489 games. He has the ability to be an elite player, but just hasn't reached that level yet. To many it seemed like only a matter of time, but then the third great Marlins fire sale took place. A year after acquiring Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell to christen their new (ugly) ball park, the Marlins appeared ready to surround Stanton with the type of talent he needed to put up big numbers. Of course, that team was quickly dismantled is tacky fashion. Stanton was a combination of injured and pissed, which led to his 2013 season where he basically had a case of F-it's. Not that he wasn't trying or was giving up, but just in the fact that he was frustrated, highly pissed, and saying to himself, "Well if I have to do this all myself, I might as well swing for the fences every time." He finished with 24 home runs 62 (!) RBI and a .249 average.

The good news for Stanton is that while his numbers did suffer, his peripherals show a largely unchanged man in regards to plate discipline. He wasn't striking out anymore than previous years, nor was his expanding his strike zone. He didn't develop any bad habits. He was seeing less pitches in the strike zone, but when pitchers did throw something to him, he was able to make solid contact. His .249 average was the result of increased ground ball rate and a lower line drive rate - two changes that can be largely attributed to the lower body injuries Stanton dealt with last year.

With health and somewhat competent group of players around him (Christian Yelich in front and Garrett Jones, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Marcell Ozuna behind him) Stanton should surely improve over last year. Time heals all wounds, and maybe it was the abruptness of the moves that angered Stanton, but he appears to be more at peace with his situation as the lone remaining position player superstar on the squad. Based on that he should be ranked higher, but as long as he is in Miami and in that situation, I can't fully trust him.

Please note this is not an argument in favor of line-up protection. Like anything the argument skews once you add in extremes, and I'd say having Stanton surrounded by Logan Morrison and Placido Polanco skews it to the absurd. Now, how being in a less productive lineup can hinder counting stats isn't crazy to say at all.

Hunter Pence had a standard Hunter Pence year, just with a couple more home runs and 10 more steals. The steals are what is unlikely to return for Pence, but if you are holding out hope, then he could very well be a top 10 OF again.

Craig Kimbrel is one of the toughest guys to rank simply because as a closer, his value is completely dependent on your individual strategy and league. He's shown the numbers to be a top 12 pitcher overall, so taking him amongst the starting pitcher giants isn't a leap, but if you're in a "Don't pay for saves (h/t Matthew Berry) league, then it's reasonable to see Kimbrel fall 20+ spots. Unlike many closers that have flamed out in the past, Kimbrel has been monitored and brought along as a closer from day 1. He has the stuff and ability to truly have a long-term shot at staying healthy. In a year where there are many question marks on offense, there's no reason to worry about safely securing Kimbrel early on.

Speaking of hard to rank, there's Yasiel Puig. He warrants a lot of attention for a lot of reasons. Whether he's throwing out a runner at 3rd from right field or flipping his bat half way down the third base line after a game winning hit.

Most of his antics have been panned by baseball die hards, but the fans love watching him. The surprising call up to LA last year, Puig certainly helped me win some fantasy titles, so I appreciate his assistance, but it's important when drafting in 2014 to make sense of what Puig did. His astronomical BABIP along with questionable pitch recognition seem to point to a downturn in his offensive numbers. Some analysts are saying he could finish outside the top 100 players, but after witnessing his freak athleticism, I think a lot of concerns over being impatient at the plate and the dreaded regression can be overruled. What I will say is that Puig will be much more of the player he was in the 2nd half of the season as opposed to the first. Pitchers will have a better idea of how to approach him and expose his obvious weaknesses. And the Dodgers could well reign in his steals where he was only net 3 in that category last year.

This is still a good fantasy player. My personal projections have Puig batting .271 with 20 HR 106 R 68 RBI and 16 SB. Not as high flying as I'm sure many expect, but still a valuable asset with a low floor and high ceiling. He's risky, no doubt about that.

I'm very optimistic about Justin Verlander and Madison Bumgarner.

How do you ignore a name like Albert Pujols? In my keeper league that's been operating for 12 years now, this is the first that Pujols will be available since he was initially selected in the inaugural draft. The sensible guy in me sees an aging player who has continually gotten worse year after year since 2009. His injuries last year weren't the cause of the fall of the great Pujols, but rather another obstacle to a player already showing a deteriorating skill set. At the same time, this isn't Mo Vaughn we're talking about. This is the best player of the decade. A baseball mashing machine that is among the all-time greats. Health hasn't been a concern his entire career, so the hope is that with him now healthy and with plenty of down time last year and doubters this year, he can refocus. I'm not sure if refocusing is all he needs. A pick in Pujols at this point is a pick for Mike Trout. If Pujols can stay health and hit anywhere near what he did in 2012 even, he'll fall into 100 RBI and mid-20s in home runs justifying his value. But this is a player in decline, and just because he is healthy now, doesn't mean he'll stay that way. The more I look at this ranking, the more I might be factoring in hope rather than the facts.

Yes, Jose Fernandez. If you read Fantasy Funkhouser at all last year, he was probably on your team. The guy was dynamite. Please to enjoy, a collection of his .gifs. Ranking him as my SP10 isn't a slight, but rather a consideration that it will be challenging for him to meet or surpass his numbers from last year. The value that Fernandez has to show in 2014 is not an ability to have a lower ERA or WHIP, but to pitch for more innings. That's where his value will lie. If history is an indication, if Fernandez stays healthy, he'll probably get to close to 200 innings this year. His K/9 might dip, but that's largely as result of throwing deeper into games. This year is his true stretching out period, and my anticipation is that he'll provide slightly less fantasy value than last year.

Fantasy Funkhouser favorite Allen Craig was the first player in my rankings to take me down the value rabbit hole. Where you look at a guy's numbers and realize he's not too dissimilar to this lower ranked player, then not too different from that player, and down the hole you go. Before you know it you're thinking Craig isn't all that different than James Loney. Shake yourself out of it, big boy. Craig is a fairly solid player. However, I don't like him as much as I did last year. He will be taking his swings out of the healthy 3-hole in the Cardinals' lineup, but he will also be manning right field this year as opposed to the more comfortable first base. For as much worrying as people do about fantasy injuries, in Craig's case it's hard to ignore. His games played the last three years are 75, 119, and 134. Well hopefully he's trending up. Health is the main concern for Craig. I mean the guy does just get hurt. He injured himself rounding first base last year and that knocked him out for a month. It's a problem. Sure his BABIP with runners in scoring position is balancing on a high wire, but even if that drops a bit, Craig should be able to easily go 80/20/100/.300. Without health though, he's Billy Butler last year, or Michael Cuddyer, or Chris Johnson, or Justin Smoak, or .. YOU SEE?!

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM
37	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	12	MIA
38	Hunter Pence	OF	13	SF
39	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	14	TEX
40	Craig Kimbrel	RP	1	ATL
41	Justin Verlander	SP	9	DET
42	Yasiel Puig	OF	15	LAD
43	Buster Posey	C	1	SF
44	Jose Fernandez	SP	10	MIA
45	David Ortiz	1B	6	BOS
46	Madison Bumgarner	SP	11	SF
47	Max Scherzer	SP	12	DET
48	Jay Bruce	OF	16	CIN
49	Ian Kinsler	2B	4	DET
50	Matt Holliday	OF	17	STL
51	Eric Hosmer	1B	7	KC
52	Anibal Sanchez	SP	13	DET
53	Starling Marte	OF	18	PIT
54	Albert Pujols	1B	8	LAA
55	Jean Segura	SS	5	MIL
56	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	9	LAD
57	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	19	OAK
58	Zack Greinke	SP	14	LAD
59	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2	CIN
60	Allen Craig	1B	10	STL

On Deck: Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward, Kenley Jansen

OVERALL RANKS THUS FAR

We've been largely holding steady on the big board. After some drafts I was in, I decided to flip Evan Longoria and David Wright. Probably more a matter of need or what you want more. Wright's power/speed combo or Longoria's power production in a better lineup. I've considered bumping McCutchen up to 3 just because he has a higher floor, but I like Goldschmidt too much. Baseball is a week away.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL
10	Chris Davis	1B	3	TOR
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	NYY
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX
20	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE
21	Evan Longoria	3B	4	TB	23
22	Yu Darvish	SP	2	TEX
23	David Wright	3B	5	NYM	21
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS
25	Felix Hernandez	SP	3	SEA
26	Chris Sale	SP	4	CHI
27	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
28	Stephen Strasburg	SP	5	WAS
29	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
30	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
31	Adam Wainwright	SP	6	STL
32	Cliff Lee	SP	7	PHI
33	Jose Reyes	SS	4	TOR
34	Jose Bautista	OF	10	TOR
35	Justin Upton	OF	11	ATL
36	David Price	SP	8	TB
37	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	12	MIA
38	Hunter Pence	OF	13	SF
39	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	14	TEX
40	Craig Kimbrel	RP	1	ATL
41	Justin Verlander	SP	9	DET
42	Yasiel Puig	OF	15	LAD
43	Buster Posey	C	1	SF
44	Jose Fernandez	SP	10	MIA
45	David Ortiz	1B	6	BOS
46	Madison Bumgarner	SP	11	SF
47	Max Scherzer	SP	12	DET
48	Jay Bruce	OF	16	CIN
49	Ian Kinsler	2B	4	DET
50	Matt Holliday	OF	17	STL
51	Eric Hosmer	1B	7	KC
52	Anibal Sanchez	SP	13	DET
53	Starling Marte	OF	18	PIT
54	Albert Pujols	1B	8	LAA
55	Jean Segura	SS	5	MIL
56	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	9	LAD
57	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	19	OAK
58	Zack Greinke	SP	14	LAD
59	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2	CIN
60	Allen Craig	1B	10	STL

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - Round 3

2014-03-14T09:34:00.003-04:00

Ba-bum-ba-bum-ba-bum-bum SALE! Chris Sale! (cbssports.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

This time last year, there were a lot of questions and concerns about Chris Sale. He was a young pitcher with a questionable delivery. He had a great 2012, but his workload increased by 121 innings. There was a brief stretch where Sale was inexplicably shut down by the White Sox due to some forearm tightness, and although he came back from that to finish strong, the 2013 fantasy owner was weary.

What Sale had in store for his first year as an uninhibited starter was a treat. He surpassed 200 IP to go along with an increased K-rate and lower walk rate. His ERA barely nudged up a bit, but his FIP and xFIP were both lower than 2012. He tied for 8th in WAR at 5.1 with Cliff Lee. What 2013 was for Chris Sale wasn't the comfort of knowing this kid could put together two strong seasons back to back even with his funky mechanics, but rather the emergence of a fantasy star. Truly, no one pitches like Chris Sale pitches. He's an inverted W, left-handed, spinning slinger of a pitcher who utilizes three dominant pitches and is bringing along a two-seam fastball.

*fangraphs.com

I love these types of .gifs because it shows me what I want to see from a starter. At least 3 strong pitches with a forth on the way. All at different eye levels and velocities. Factor that in with Sale's pitching motion, and if you're a left handed batter, you might as well leave your batting gloves at home. Well, I guess unless you want to get hit by a pitch.

Season	Split	IP	TBF	H	2B	3B	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
2013	vs L	44.2	163	20	3	0	7	6	0	8	5	48	0.133	0.205	0.155	0.174

While there are undoubtedly long-term health risks tied to Sale, it seems like at this point in his career, his body can take what his throwing motion is dishing out. I strongly considered making Sale my #2 ranked SP overall, but health was a factor along with the fact that hey, bumping him up to #4 isn't too shabby either.

This round is dominated by the starters. A byproduct of offense being heavily influenced in the first couple of rounds. Moving forward there will be a better mix of position players to go with the starters and eventually closers.

While Sale is my #4 starter, I still couldn't put him above King Felix. Per fantasypros.com, Hernandez is going 36 overall, which is fair considering I have him ranked higher than most. Overall, I just feel like Hernandez has this cloud hovering over him. His fastball velocity dropped, he might start having arm troubles, ooooooh! What he really is, is a pitcher entering his pitching prime. He's not lighting up radar guns, but his control is excellent and he has a wipe out change up. Pitch F/x has him checking in with 6 different pitches all smashed into 11 mph difference. Does this make him more hittable because there's not enough of a differential in speeds between those pitches, or wholly unhittable because if you're the batter you have a possibility of 6 pitches coming at you that all look the same that can all be located all over the plate? Don't overlook Felix.

Just to wrap up the pitcher talk for now ... this is the year. The year I finally get to draft Stephen Strasburg! Ever since he made his debut, in redraft leagues I refused to take him due to his inflated price and, frankly, overrated standing in fantasy ranks. But this year, my friends, is the year. Sure he wasn't completely healthy last year, but he had some bone chips cleaned up and is ready and raring to go. He is looking to eclipse over 200 innings this season, and with only 8 wins and sub 200-Ks this might be the only year you can get Strasburg at a reasonable price. A sub 3 ERA and 200 Ks are easily attainable for a guy with Strasburg's pedigree, especially in the NL East. He's even working on a slider. Eh, well it still needs a little work, and due to his on-going elbow concerns probably won't be utilized much if at all this year, but he's going to get better. The last remaining knock on him making a run into a top 2 pitchers is his innings count. Yes, there's a massive difference between pitchers that can go 220 innings and 202 innings.

Let's talk about the elephant in the room, Alex Rios. The bane of many fantasy owners existence has quietly started becoming a darn good fantasy player. After many up and down years, when we look back at the 33-year-old we see he has put together a couple solid years in a row, and he is now comfortably embedded in the Texas Rangers' lineup. He is a 20/20 threat and a 20/35 threat if you're feeling frisky. The biggest issues are if you can trust Rios to perform, and if he is batting 6th, that's going to have a negative effect on many of his stats. He won't be reaching 40 steals and 90 runs with Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder clogging up the base paths. I'm ready to proceed with caution on Rios simply because the power and speed combo is too enticing.

My thoughts on Freeman here. #TeamHeyward

Those two outfielders I have listed are two intriguing players. With Bautista, I think he's got one more season in the sun in him. Hopefully a year removed from wrist problems will help him stay on the field. His ISO could tick back up towards the high .200s putting him in range of 40 HR if all goes well.

As for Justin Upton, ugh, where do I start? The guy is an anomaly. No one knows if it's effort, injuries, or perhaps a grossly overrated idea of what kind of talent he actually has, but at this point Upton is ranked #35 on hope. He is still only 26, so it's silly to write him off, but at the same time if he doesn't start playing more consistent, staying healthy, and hitting the ball hard it's time to start worrying. Most concerning for Upton last year was the massive increase in strikeouts. Basically pitchers were coming at Upton early and often. Throwing first pitch strikes more often and throwing pitches in the strike zone consistently. Upton's contact rate took a nose dive, and that's where the book on Upton is currently written. Get behind on him or make a mistake, he'll take it a long way. But if you can get ahead and make him uncomfortable in the batter's box, then he's not likely to make you pay. Personally, I'd like to see Upton just make better contact. He's walking a bit more in spring training, but I see no indication of his ability to drive the ball. He still has that MVP form in there somewhere. He flashed it in April last year. Fantasy owners have begun to lose patience, and they aren't wrong in doing so, but let's hope this is Upton's year.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM
25	Felix Hernandez	SP	3	SEA
26	Chris Sale	SP	4	CHI
27	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
28	Stephen Strasburg	SP	5	WAS
29	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
30	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
31	Adam Wainwright	SP	6	STL
32	Cliff Lee	SP	7	PHI
33	Jose Reyes	SS	4	TOR
34	Jose Bautista	OF	10	TOR
35	Justin Upton	OF	11	ATL
36	David Price	SP	8	TB

On Deck: Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Kimbrel, Yasiel Puig

OVERALL RANKINGS THUS FAR

No changes this week. My rankings so far are holding pretty steady. Of course, there have been a slew of worrisome injuries that haven't shown themselves yet in the form of Cole Hamels and Kris Medlen.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL
10	Chris Davis	1B	3	TOR
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	NYY
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX
20	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE
21	David Wright	3B	4	NYM
22	Yu Darvish	SP	2	TEX
23	Evan Longoria	3B	5	TB
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS
25	Felix Hernandez	SP	3	SEA
26	Chris Sale	SP	4	CHI
27	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
28	Stephen Strasburg	SP	5	WAS
29	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
30	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
31	Adam Wainwright	SP	6	STL
32	Cliff Lee	SP	7	PHI
33	Jose Reyes	SS	4	TOR
34	Jose Bautista	OF	10	TOR
35	Justin Upton	OF	11	ATL
36	David Price	SP	8	TB

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - Round 2

2014-03-04T12:57:00.001-05:00

Now isn't the time to question the potential of Bryce Harper. (cbswashington.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Debating the merits or possibility that Bryce Harper will emerge as a fantasy baseball megastar is a tale that isn't as old as time, it just feels that way. Before we're picking if we're on the teapot side or the chandelier side of this argument, let's just say that Harper was well on his way to meeting every one's expectations last year before injuries cost him a lot of productivity. Two stints on the DL and lingering injuries to his back and knee hobbled the then 20-year-old. Plus the manner in which he did that unleashed a hella lot of gifs and funny Internet imagery that Harper even mentioned during Spring Training, he was tired of hearing. It's like if you got a really bad high in college, stripped your clothes off, and started running around the dorms naked screaming, "I can't feel real!" Except you're in front of a stadium full of people and plenty of camera angles to play that on repeat. It's embarrassing.

What's tougher to decipher is if being America's favorite wall-runner-into or the incredible rise of Mike Trout burns Harper more. Sure, Trout was the #1 ranked prospect to Harper's #2 most of their minor league careers, but that was primarily due to Trout's elite defense and run tools. Harper was the top prospect that was supposed to steal the show. He was supposed to be the teenage wunderkind who could hit 40 home runs and have a SportsCenter clip dedicated to him everyday. He has the sizzle, but the steak has been all Trout so far.

Ultimately, that's part of the problem. Trout has been so dominant in reality and fantasy that by comparison Harper is just not deserving of his hype. Not that hype is something you prescribe to yourself, but something that is put upon you by others. Yes, Harper hasn't shattered any records or won any MVP's yet, but that doesn't mean it's time to doubt his career arc.

Looking back on 2013, it was a step forward for Harper. He increased virtually all of his key stats compared to 2012. You can really just go across the board to his advanced stats and see his increase in walk rate, decrease in strikeout rate, increased OPS, ISO, and on and on.

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	Spd	BABIP	UBR	wSB	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2012	Nationals	9.40%	20.10%	0.47	0.270	0.34	0.477	0.817	0.206	7.4	0.310	-0.3	0.6	86	17.9	0.352	121
2013	Nationals	12.30%	18.90%	0.65	0.274	0.368	0.486	0.854	0.212	5.1	0.306	1.6	0.2	77	22.1	0.371	137

*Fangraphs.com

While people want to see this growth over a full season, there's no doubting that Harper has made gains. Of course, there are some outstanding issues for the young slugger. No doubt, you have to keep the injury issue in the back of your mind. It's by no means chronic, but more a situation where he has to be monitored more closely and make sure he protects himself from dangerous situations on the field. As he continues to grow, he has to be able to hit left handed pitching better. He batted only .214 AVG with a wRC+ of 86. He did walk more against lefties, so he's not squeezing the bat too tightly, just needs to adjust to lefties and their breaking pitches.

Certainly there are plenty of questions that need to be answered, but Harper has shown that he'll figure things out. I don't view his health as an issue at this point, and I look forward to seeing what gains he can make in 2014. For a player like that it might seem too early to select him at #13, but the limitless potential makes him a good value for me at this point. Per Tristan H. Cockroft, Harper could just be setting himself up to make a run at closing that gap on Trout.

Harper Projections:
2014 (age 21): .288 AVG, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 16 SB
2015 (age 22): .297 AVG, 33 HR, 102 RBI, 15 SB
2016 (age 23): .302 AVG, 38 HR, 115 RBI, 11 SB

Let's not let some lingering feelings of disappointment cloud the vision of what kind of natural ability is there to be had.

The rest of the names on this list are all solid contributors and easy early round selections. Adrian Beltre is as steady as they come, but without that beloved upside and 35 years on the planet, his value will at the very least be conservatively ranked. There was some power drop off for Beltre last year, and while hitting in that line-up in Texas will cover up a lot, I wouldn't be surprised to see his overall production dip a bit further this year. He can still get to high 20s in home runs, but his 30 home run days might be in the past. Also, don't look past Beltre's batting average. He's hit .315 or better in 3 of the last 4 years.

I mentioned this last year, but Joey Votto might have become a better real life baseball player than fantasy. In standard leagues where on-base percentage isn't valued (and really, it should be at this point) a lot of Votto's true value is diminished. Sure, it's great if he walks and gets on base for Jay Bruce to drive him in, but when he doesn't put the ball in play with runners on 2nd and 3rd, that's a problem. He simply leaves too many opportunities on the diamond. While he always makes great contact, Votto has only topped 30 HR once. He's skill set is much more in line with a mid-20s HR out put to go along with a high average and run scoring ability.

The great fallacy of Jason Kipnis is that his performance dipped yet again in the 2nd half. There was a drop, but nothing I would call alarming. His K% remained solid, and the hits he took were primarily due to losing some points off his BABIP and ISO. Expecting a 20/30 season from him might be a bit much, but at 2B going 90/18/85/30 across the board will fill any one's roto team nicely. With a little more push he could challenge Robinson Cano for the top 2B spot overall.

Here's something I did want to mention for those people taking Clayton Kershaw in the upper half of your draft. Doing so means that you are making the statement that a dominant starting pitcher (there are a few others out there not named Clayton) is very valuable to you. So if you are one of these people and you're aggressive about getting Kershaw, then you should be ranking fellow dominant SP's higher as well. This certainly includes Yu Darvish, who led the league with 277 K's. That number alone cannot be ignored, but even though the Astros might have helped fuel that line, well who cares because Darvish still gets to face them as many times in 2014. He's made great strides so far in majors, but his propensity to throw a lot of pitches and not work deep into games continues to hurt him in the wins category. Also, I do begin to worry just a little bit about the little injuries he tends to pick up here or there. It hasn't been anything major yet, but I won't be surprised if/when he does go on the DL for a long period of time. I debated dropping him lower in my SP ranks for some other hurlers I'll talk about in my next rankings, but for now, he's the #2 SP.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX
20	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE
21	David Wright	3B	4	NYM
22	Yu Darvish	SP	2	TEX
23	Evan Longoria	3B	5	TB
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS

On Deck: David Price, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez

OVERALL RANKINGS THUS FAR

Only one switch thus far, and that was Edwin Encarnacion swapping spots with Chris Davis. Encarnacion is carrying dual position eligibility, seems healthy after wrist surgery, and his floor is much higher than Davis'.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL	10
10	Chris Davis	1B	2	TOR	9
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	NYY
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX
20	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE
21	David Wright	3B	4	NYM
22	Yu Darvish	SP	2	TEX
23	Evan Longoria	3B	5	TB
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - Round 1

2014-02-20T11:59:00.000-05:00

Time to start building a super team. (thesimpsons.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

When I started writing about fantasy sports a couple odd years ago, I knew it was mostly for my own purposes. My own outlet. With the Internet the way it is, there's no telling if this would get 1 pair of eyeballs or 100,000. Getting 100,000 on a daily bases would be grand, but if only I was able to read this, then I'd be fine with that as well. As we enter into Year 2 of my fantasy baseball rankings, I am reminded of this as I scroll through past Fantasy Funkhouser articles. A lot of the stuff I've said or written about is pretty interesting to re-read. And aside from this article from two years ago brazenly stating that David Robertson is the new Yankees closer, most of the stuff has at least a morsel of worthwhile information stuffed in there. In particular I was proud of my Man Crush picks for last year (which will be back again in 2014), and my Leap Game article on Jose Fernandez. For the record Fernandez did get shelled that night in Cincy, but I think it's safe to say he pulled through.

Reviewing what I wrote and the amount I wrote for my rankings struck me as daunting. Writing a narrative around an assortment of 12 players in a given week was a challenge, but also not quite worth it. There are much more capable minds to breakdown the nuances of drafting or strategy, and more people will tune into those advisers for that kind of player or draft analysis. I'd like to take more time focusing on the players not trying to build a catch-all article around them. I've competed my Top 250, so over the course of the next month, I'll be able to more quickly and efficiently make them available along with some of my thoughts. On the Big Board, I've added position rank as a reference as well, and while this will be a continually evolving list, I'll try to keep things as fresh as possible along with some analysis as to why a player might have moved up or down the list.

In summation, if you're new to reading this or think you want to check in periodically, yes, there is some good stuff on here.

With that all out of the way, time to look at the First Round of the 2014 Fantasy Funkhouser Rankings.

The first pick in the draft is truly a coin flip. I had Mike Trout as my clear #1 overall selection a couple of months ago, and he could still very well be an excellent #1. However, as I looked into things a bit further I started reviewing certain things. Like who finished higher in Yahoo's final standings (Cabrera #1, Trout #4) or who was on top of ESPN's player rater in 2013 (Cabrera), and who earned more auction dollars (Cabrera $47, Trout $43)? In all of the fantasy rankings Cabrera was still the man to beat. When you look at that and also note that Cabrera has 3B and will soon have 1B eligibility, that is a big plus. Also, Cabrera battled a groin injury over the past month of the season and through the playoffs - so he was capable of an even greater year than he had! And for all you Triple Crown truthers out there, Cabrera had better numbers across the board last year than his Triple Crown winning season in 2012. I guess that's the benefit of not having Chris Davis going off. It's a statistical anomaly, people. Not that it's not amazing, just not as big a deal as some would like you to believe.

Cabrera is still easily in his prime years, and let me just leave the Cabrera side of the argument with this:

.292 AVG/ 26 HR/ 105 RBI / 85 R/ 130 OPS+

That is a line made up of Cabrera's WORST seasons since he was a full-time player in 2004. Yes, that's the bottom of the barrel for Miggy. At this rate, he is legitimately one of the greatest players of all time. The back to back AL MVP along with his unmatched consistency and elite production for your fantasy game make him my top overall choice. He's good at baseball.

As for Trout, he's just the best consolation prize in fantasy history. The 22-year-old is all about breaking records and inspiring awe from those who watch him. Yes, those 2 MVPs with Miguel Cabrera engraved in them could and possibility should read Mike Trout, but this is fantasy people. We truly only care about offense. Trout batted away any body's regression voodoo and actually had a better baseball season in 2013. His LD% increased, his GB% dipped (which isn't too big a deal when you have Trout's speed), and he nearly doubled his walk total while striking out three less times despite playing in 18 more games. Trout is only getting better and although his baseball card stats didn't show it.

The good news for Trout is that he's not going to be overly aggressive or make mistakes. He's going to be patient. If the pitcher wants to walk him, go ahead. If the pitcher makes a mistake, he'll crank out a double and steal 3rd because he feels like it. For Trout to surpass Cabrera the formula is pretty clear. He has to at the very least maintain his current hitting numbers: high 20's for homers and pushing 90+ RBI with at least a .310+ AVG. The push is going to come from runs scored and steals. When Trout led all of fantasy in 2012 he had 129 R and 49 SB. Those number dropped to 109 R and 33 SB last year, ironically enough due to $363 MM worth of ball players in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The severe lack in production from either of these overpriced superstars had a negative effect on Trout's ability to produce comparable runs scored numbers and while there isn't a direct correlation to the dip in steals, Trout has already indicated this Spring that he wants to steal more bases. There is no right or wrong answer for the #1 pick. If I'm fortunate enough to have the opportunity I want to own both Cabrera and Trout spread across my fantasy teams because they're just too fun to have.

For any questions regarding my Ryan Braun at #5 ranking, I refer you to this.

I mentioned before that with the many question marks lining the offensive player pool this year, I would imagine pitchers like Clayton Kershaw or Yu Darvish or Craig Kimbrel going much earlier than in years past. This is clearly indicated with Kershaw going #7 overall on my board. You always want to try to lock up offense when you can because you can fill out your staff a bit later through free agency. There aren't many 30/20 guys relaxing on your watch list, but then again there aren't pitchers like Clayton Kershaw either. He has put together enough consistency and dominance to warrant this spot. Trusting Ramirez, Ellsbury, or even Encarnacion to be productive and healthy is a risky one. Chris Davis is worthy of a shot at #7, but there is some hesitancy for how much his production will regress. Plus he's more of a .260-.270 hitter and expecting 50+HR in this day and age just isn't the practice of a sane individual.

I am big on Encarnacion this year. His injury bug seems to be past him, and with him too adding 3B eligibility makes him a very tempting target. Imagine pulling him and Cabrera in a draft? Oh, boy.

Finally, for Robinson Cano, his #12 overall rank is nothing more than where he normally should be ranked. Moving from the Yankees to the Mariners is overblown in the ballpark change sense. Who knows if Cano's relaxed attitude will become a hindrance in the more laid back city of Seattle as opposed to the cauldron that is New York City? There's really no one in Seattle that will or can keep Cano's attitude in check, so while there might be some mud slinging going on regarding his effort, I'm confident that the pressure of $240 MM will motivate him just fine. Cano has always been steady and honestly, been drafted much higher than his value dictates. I expect nothing more or less than what Cano has produced in previous seasons.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Chris Davis	1B	2	BAL
10	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	NYY
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	TOR
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA

On Deck: Adrian Beltre, Joey Votto, Bryce Harper

NOTE: IN REGARDS TO MULTI-POSITION ELIGIBLE PLAYERS, FOR RANKINGS SAKE, I'M LISTING THEM WHERE THEY EITHER CURRENTLY HAVE ELIGIBILITY OR WILL BE PRIMARILY USED IN FANTASY.

I.E. CABRERA WILL HAVE 1B ELIGIBILITY AS SOON AS YOUR LEAGUE ALLOWS IT, BUT I'LL LIST HIM AS 3B. OR JOE MAUER IS ONLY PLAYING 1B THIS YEAR, BUT IF YOU USE HIM AS ANYTHING BUT YOUR CATCHER YOU'RE SILLY.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Solving the 5th Pick in a 2014 Snake Draft Problem

2014-02-17T10:33:00.002-05:00

Hear me out, people! (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

As I finalize my preparations for my 2014 rankings there appears to be one over arching question for people early in their draft. Specifically, there is one position above all others people do not want to be drafting from in 2014. That is the 5th spot in a snake draft. The reason is that after the, essentially, inarguable top 4 of Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Andrew McCutchen there is a large grouping of people with high ceilings but also low floors.

Players like Carlos Gonzalez who is guaranteed to miss at least 20 games that usually occur at the end of the season, which for contending teams is the least opportune time. Or Chris Davis who blew up the baseball world with an epic 2013 season that many seem skeptical he can repeat. Robinson Cano has moved to a less hitter friendly park at Safeco, Jacoby Ellsbury has some injury flags on him, and Bryce Harper could be the MVP or he could have another year of slow progression towards superstar status.

Based on current ADP info, it appears many owners are skirting by these players that have more question marks than the Riddler in favor of safety and security in the form of Clayton Kershaw. Certainly this isn't a bad choice. Kershaw earned $57 last year, based on The Fantasy Baseball Guide. He was third on ESPN's player rater, and Yahoo ranked him second overall when the final pitch was tossed in 2013. This is exactly what a Top 10 pick looks like. Dominant, safe, secure, and the caveat of Kershaw is that drafting such an elite pitcher so early allows you to basically forgo taking another starter for 8-10 rounds in most standard leagues. Even in the 2014 LABR mixed league draft, head honcho Steve Gardner saw no issues taking Kershaw at the dreaded #5. Ray Guilfoyle at Fake Teams agrees with Gardner's pick. He writes:

Loved the Kershaw pick by Steve Gardner at #5. He represents little risk and is the most dominant starter in the game. With few 40 home run hitters left in the game, starting pitchers will offer more production going forward.

Yes, yes, and yes, Ray. Most logical people are on board. The general strategy is to turn your nose up at pitching for the first several rounds and get elite hitters, but when all of those hitters could sink your title dreams the pitcher that might be the best of a generation seems like a nice safety blanket. Sure there's a greater risk of injury for a pitcher than a hitter in general, but in this specific instance there are a litany of different reasons to not take the next 5-6 ranked offensive players.

With all this uncertainty it seems easy to fall comfortably into taking Kershaw. To going in early for that pitcher just because he is so good. But if we can all agree with hitters being more valuable and in a perfect world we'd take one in the first round, then why shouldn't we consider Ryan Braun?

Oh, PEDs you say, well yes he does have that hanging over his head, but is that something really worth punishing fantasy wise? He's served his suspension, he's back with something to prove, and while convicted cheaters like Alex Rodriguez and Melky Cabrera have regressed quite a bit once their "gummy" supply was stunted, but Rodriguez was already breaking down and Cabrera somehow willed his PED use into a great season, which clearly he is not capable of on his own. Braun though has been elite, well, forever. Look at his career stats and tell me when he started taking PEDs. If we go on what we know and what has been reported it's likely that he started somewhere at the end of 2010 and into 2011. There was a spike in his numbers, but those were also over his prime age years.

Let's strike those two from the record because I'm feeling generous. Prior to that he was still a wrecking machine. In 2009 and 2010 he earned $40 and $34 respectively by smacking 30 homers with 100+ runs and 100+ RBI with double digit steals. His wOBA and ISO during his entire career has stayed largely in line with what he's always done.

Last year he obviously struggled with the on-going media speculation of his PED use. The failed drug test that was somehow overturned, and then the fall out that he was indeed using PEDs. Braun came off looking bad. He vehemently denied the claims initially, attacking and attempting to destroy the reputation of some people in the process. His standing in the court of public opinion is at an all-time low. Along with battling some injuries and running less there are legitimate concerns about Braun, but compared to what the other players are offering up, I think he's worth this pick.

Even if we say he won't be the player he was, a reasonable demotion in his overall performance still lands him safely in the .290 AVG, 25 HR, 90 R, 90 RBI, and 15 steal range. Those are comparable to CarGo or even a guy like Adam Jones, but unlike those two, I think this is a pretty safe floor for the now clean Braun.

Stats and projections don't take into account the emotional state of the player or off the field struggles, but I'm not too concerned about it. Sure road games will be tough, but a guy like Braun, who is the +Milwaukee Brewers' best player is used to getting heckled anyway. On top of it, I have a personal feeling that people like Braun are slightly detached from the reality of a situation. For most normal people, this would be a heavy burden to carry. There would be a fear or apprehension going anywhere, showing your face, and especially trying to hit a moving round ball being thrown at you with a round piece of lumber, but super athletes have to be detached in this weird way. Baseball is almost more of a sanctuary or release for players like Braun, not an impossible mountain to climb.

This, however, is fantasy baseball. If you say I don't want this guy on my team because I just don't like him, then that's all well and good. I'm 100% fine with that. Take Kershaw or CarGo and be on your merry way, but if you're looking to take who might be the best player at #5 then that could very well be Braun.

Looking for a Fight @ UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi

2014-02-14T16:30:00.003-05:00

Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza enters the Octagon to impress on Saturday Night. (yahoo.com)

Just because the fight card for Saturday night's UFC event in Brazil says Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza and Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida aren't fighting each other doesn't mean they aren't facing off. Yes, UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi might as well read as UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Jacare. The two Brazilians are the co-main and main event of the evening and while winning their fight is top priority, the biggest prize is the win their fight spectacularly on Saturday to get a shot at the middleweight title.

Both Machida and Souza are more than capable of the spectacular in the Octagon. Souza has finished his last five opponents with four of them coming in the 1st Round. Machida is no stranger to finishing fights, and his debut at 185 ended abruptly with a shin to Mark Munoz's head. As the lead in to this event, UFC President Dana White has said that Machida is the one who stands to get the next title shot after Vitor Belfort should Machida defeat Gegard Mousasi, however, as we all know White likes to see finishes.

It's the reason the UFC implemented the new bonus structure effective immediately changing the KO of the Night and Sub of the Night to two separate Fighter Performance of the Night bonuses. The company slant on this is that sometimes there isn't a KO or a sub so this bonus money goes wasted. Now, since it's more open to interpretation this $50K bonus can go to whomever the UFC wants to give it to. Yeah, right.

The UFC does whatever it wants within the confines of their company. If there isn't a KO or a sub, then I can guarantee they're giving out that money on top of the already infamous backdoor paychecks the UFC cuts for fighters who go above and beyond in the Octagon.

This move directly correlates to UFC 169, which set a record for fights going to the scorecard. White was not happy, so things needed to change. Overall, this isn't going to greatly impact the fights, but the message is clear: just because you happen to triangle choke some guy in a boring fight, you're not walking off with $50K. You have to put on an entertaining fight and you have to go for not just finishes but for 3 or 5 rounds of continual action.

So Machida can't just dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge his way to a decision. Nor can Jacare play it carefully (not that he usually does). This is a fight where not only are the bonuses up for grabs but the caliber in which each fighter is able to finish the fight will directly affect his ability to get a title shot. This is something that both fighters, fighting in front of their Brazilian brethren must be thinking about.

Both fighters are the favorites in their respective bouts, but while Jacare has the higher UFC rank at #3, the newly minted middleweight Machida is right behind him and #4 and taking on the arguable better opponent in Mousasi. While Mousasi hasn't been able to get his momentum going in the UFC, fighting only once in April against unfortunate last second replacement Ilir Latifi, he can't be overlooked as the Iranian has held belts at both DREAM and Strikeforce.

It remains unclear if Jacare and Machida would fight each other for a #1 contender spot, but at this moment that appears to be unnecessary. With Anderson Silva out of the picture for most of 2014 and either current champion Chris Weidman or Vitor Belfort holding the strap come May it'll be the fighter that puts on the best performance on Saturday night who will fight for the title before 2014 is over.

This new bonus structure might not move mountains, but the UFC certainly added an extra element to Saturday's card in Brazil.

BREAKDOWN

If the name of the game is finishing fights, then it's hard for me to think Jacare won't be fighting Weidman in the Fall. Jacare is a scary dude who can now impose his fists on top of his elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu. When we look at Machida though, what can we expect in his second bout at 185? His first ended so emphatically that if he can do something like that again then the title shot is all his.

The shame about Machida is that many probably don't appreciate how good he really is. The guy was almost untouchable at 205 until he ran into Shogun Rua, and then a Jon Jones choke later it was clear he was out of his element. A naturally slender person, Machida probably should have been at 185 all along, but his unwillingness to fight Anderson Silva and probably a heavy reliance on his karate to avoid the damage light heavyweights can inflict kept him up there too long. If 185 Machida is explosive and is more willing to let his fists fly, then we could be talking about a completely different fighter.

In order to make a prediction, I'm going to have to go with what I know. Although I think the upset is a bit more likely with Jacare than with Machida, I think Jacare will be able to finish Francis Carmont via submission and get the title shot.

Fantasy Funkhouser: The Not #Want Team

2014-01-28T15:12:00.000-05:00

There's still somethings about Freddie Freeman that stops me from embracing him. (lovemybraves.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Oh yes, fantasy baseball is coming. The ESPN rankings summit has taken place, Yahoo announced the game will launch this Thursday, and I even received my precious Baseball Prospectus in the mail Friday evening. The planning stage for serious fantasy gamers is well underway.

Last year, I did a round by round breakdown of players I liked, and that worked pretty well. At this point though, I'm not sure if I'm ready to dive that deep just yet, but I did spout out my Top 25 back on November 1st. While that list has changed, I think I will still need some time to break down the elite of the fantasy baseball world, then round up some sleeper/value picks, and then I will be ready to go round for round.

With all this positivity going around, it's only natural that for every positive there needs to be a negative. So using ESPN's rankings by position, why not fill out a fantasy line-up of players that I don't want? These are all players that ESPN did rank that I will not be drafting in 2014. Harsh to make those judgments at this point, but whether I think a player will regress or if it's just that I don't trust him, these players all will have a red flag next to their names in my 2014 Drafting Bible (not for sale). Let's spread some hostility, shall we?

C - BUSTER POSEY, SF (ESPN FANTASY SUMMIT RANK: 1)
Nothing against Buster, but spending on catchers just isn't my thing. The position has had a bit of a renaissance in recent years accruing players that can hit for average, power, and drive in some runs in the process. Along with those that can (Posey, Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann) the position is also buoyed by players that we think can do this at some point (Matt Wieters, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana). All in all there are at least 10 servicable catchers in fantasy. You could even make a push for 12 if you wanted to. This shows me that while every position and player has a value, it's not worth being the first to dip your hand in the pot. The only exception would be if you need a player that brings a certain asset to the table. If you need average (Mauer, Perez), a couple SB's (Molina), or pop (Santana, McCann) then it is a strategic advantage to make a push for a player that can fulfill these needs, but if you have a balanced squad, then feel free to fill up the rest of your roster first.

1B - FREDDIE FREEMAN, ATL (RANK: 6)
The process of Freddie Freeman winning me over is a slow one, but it is happening. I still can't fully trust the 4th year Brave. For as steady as Freeman has been his last two years, it's that steadiness that causes me unrest. You can basically jot him down for 20-25 homers, but everything beyond that can go either way. He does make steady contact with the ball. He's slightly improved his LD% and his GB% each year, but that hasn't really translated much to his numbers. His high BABIP gives me pause in that he could hit over .300 again in 2014 or fall in line around .270. Thus far in Freeman's career it has been tough to tell if he's treading water or gaining steam, but as the 1B position continues to evolve in baseball if Freeman can't produce those power numbers he isn't worth his rank.

The main thing I can say about Freeman is that a year ago I read someone say he's a better hitter than Jason Heyward. I laughed. As I sit here today, I can't say whoever wrote that is all that wrong.

2B - BRANDON PHILLIPS, CIN (RANK: 5)
Brandon Phillips. Eighteen home runs and 103 RBI last year. He'll have to battle to be a top 10 2B in 2014. As a Phillips owner last year in my main money league, he certainly was a bright spot, but it was pretty clear how he was getting his numbers. After being dropped to 4th in the Reds' line-up, he had the 2nd and 4th ranked players in OBP ahead of him in Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo which put him in the enviable position of having to just put the ball in play to pump up his stats.

Aside from Choo departing for Texas this off-season and Votto vowing to work on driving in more runs, Phillips' more advanced numbers show a player continuing to decline. You can basically go down the line. His failed to reach double digit steals for the first time since he came to Cincy, his K% was his highest in 5 years, his ISO is the lowest it has been since he was a full-time player, and his wOBA was a horrid .307. His hope is that he can get similar opportunities in 2014, but that's a lot of risk for such a high ranked 2B.

SS - JEAN SEGURA, MIL (RANK: 7)
Segura was one of the bigger fantasy surprises last year. After coming over from the Angels in the Zack Grienke deal, Segura has certainly made Jerry Dipoto look foolish. Greinke hopped a bus to the Dodgers and Segura looks to be one of the best young shortstops in baseball. The trade really didn't make any waves when it happened, but Dipoto would certainly want a mulligan on this one.

For Segura, his hot start was only overshadowed by his stat line gradually declining month after month after month. It might be fatigue or it might be the league figuring out Segura. The power was never sustanable, but the kid can steal 40+ bases and score 100 runs with an average that can skip up to .300. That's rare enough, but if those are the only stats I'm gunning for, I'd wait for Everth Cabrera ranked one spot lower. Overall though, shortstop is one of the positions I'd like to be more aggressive at in 2014. Unless I need speed, I'd be looking to secure Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, or Ian Desmond far above Segura. So while the 7th overall SS ranking isn't far off, I doubt I'll be trying the waters with Segura.

3B - BRETT LAWRIE, TOR (RANK: 10)
This is just a no with Lawire. He has the talent, but as a Top 10 3B? Zero chance I end up with him in virtually any league. He is mildly intriguing as a 2B, but I feel there are plenty of players out there at 3B that can contribute all Lawrie can and you won't be spending as much money or drafting as early. His numbers last year, when he was healthy, mirror his disappointing 2012 season. There's obvious room for growth, but I would not be pleased to have Lawrie in my starting line-up.

OF - CARLOS GONZALEZ (RANK: 3)
We have all read the Cargo narrative at this point. When he's healthy he's dominant. One of the best fantasy players in the game. But his nagging injuries always sprout up and the DL soon follows. We also know that in this advanced, big picture world we live in that when drafting Cargo you factor in his stats along with the replacement level stats of the player you'll be adding to fill up all those DL trips. So Cargo is still certainly a Top 10 overall talent, but I can't value him that much higher than the oft-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, or more "unknown" quantities like Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gomez, or 2014 NL MVP Bryce Harper. Also, that Braun guy is back in the mix. What Cargo brings to the fantasy field makes him elite, but his doctor's bill keeps me away from investing heavily in him.

SP - DAVID PRICE (RANK: 8)
This was the hardest player to pick for me. I didn't want to go too far down the list of starting pitchers, so I dug my feet in against Price. What this really boils down to is a small portion of concern about Price's health and the large portion having to do with him pitching in the AL East. Stupid, I know, as Price has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past several years and has resided in the AL East. For my SP1, I'd always prefer to go for an NL pitcher, and there are comparable players to Price in that regard.

For more about Price himself, he did sustain his first significant injury last year with a triceps injury. Price came back and pitched great with 3 CG after the injury. The triceps is a pitching injury of note as that ties to the elbow and forearm, which is a big uh-oh for pitchers. The Rays certainly didn't seem to have any issues tossing him out there, so my apprehension is quelled a little bit.

The biggest question with Price is that for him to get the value you need from the 8th overall pitcher, you need the 200 K's, you need the low 3 ERA and the low WHIP with a baker's dozen or more of wins. Price's K/9 did drop from 8.74 to 7.28 which correlated to a drop in his overall velocity compared to the past two years. On the flip side, he had an amazing 1.30 BB/9, which puts him right near the top of the leader board. Is this a change in how Price throws? Will he try to be the old Price and blow away hitters, only to realize he doesn't have that same zip anymore? Or is he in the process of becoming the next Cliff Lee? How Price has changed as a pitcher will play a big role in 2014, but as of right now, I'm not sure what guy I'm going to get.

RP - CRAIG KIMBREL (RANK: 1)
Let me just say that it is hard for me to say if I pay for saves or not. I'm not a fan of investing heavily in closers, but I also realize there is value to every player in fantasy. Craig Kimbrel is the lone closer I can confidently say I would consider taking early on, but my early probably isn't as early as another guy's early. It's not a stretch to say that Kimbrel was not only the most valuable reliever in the game, but also the 12th most valuable pitcher in the game. He is young, strong, and has been brought along the right way by Atlanta. While it's easy to nit-pick the other elite closers: Kenley Jansen (health) and Aroldis Champman (walk rate), Kimbrel's main concern is his odd track record of starting slowly (meaning an xFIP of over 2.20 and a K/9 under 15). With the questionable offensive talent this year, along with the depth of starting pitching, I think sure thing players like Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel will be drafted higher than ever. Probably higher than their value warrants. So while I love Kimbrel, he won't be around for when I'm ready to take him.

FAABulous: 2013 Fantasy Football Season Review

2014-01-10T12:24:00.002-05:00

Peyton Manning had you covered this year in fantasy football. (blog.fitmarkbags.com)

Imagine two years ago when Peyton Manning wasn't playing professional football. While the cynics among us might have taken some sick pleasure in no longer having to deal with the media falling all overthemselves in Manning praise and attention, let's be honest, football in both reality and fantasy is more enjoyable with Peyton around.

Remember, when Manning came back last year, we were amazed that he was able to stay healthy and return to his previous heights. So to expect a career defining, record breaking season this year is quite amazing. We know the big and bold numbers: 55 TD passes to 10 INT, 5,477 yards, the 7 TD game to go along with another 10 games with 3+ TD passes. That's a lot of points. In the not so bold numbers, Peyton easily bested the rest of football in DVOA, especially when you only look at the starters who played the entire season. It was truly a historic year.

When it comes to the value of any fantasy football player, Jamaal Charles certainly deserves mention. In fact, it's not too hard to say he was the best individual player in fantasy in 2013. But what I want to shine a light on with Manning is that while Charles, yes, arguably was a better value for what he was able to give fantasy owners in 2013, what Manning was able to do as a quarterback is something that Charles can't replicate: spreading the fantasy love.

With Manning dispersing hog hide all over the football field, his success was directly tied to a lot of other fantasy owners' success. Overall, the Denver Broncos had six players in the Top 100 of Yahoo! Ranks (including Manning), and they all made strong contributions.

Player	Fantasy Points
Peyton Manning	419.98
Knowshon Moreno	236.60
Demariyus Thomas	227.00
Eric Decker	192.80
Julius Thomas	150.80
Wes Welker	135.80

You could even say Montee Ball and his #154 rank contributed nicely near the end of the year. Sure it wasn't always easy to keep a steady amount of fantasy points flowing through the veins of these players, but Manning orchestrated it all.

Now time to put a bow on this fantasy football season with a rundown of what I did right, and what I did wrong.

Matt Forte was one of my better calls of the year. (rantsports.com)

This was the first year I did preseason rankings, so I wanted to take a moment to quickly glance through those. For the complete rundown, the links are below. I broke down each position into tiers, so I'll focus on a tier or player I hit and a tier or player I missed on.

2013 FAABulous Ranks: QB, WR, RB, TE

RANKED WHERE THEY OUGHTA BE

QB - TIER WILL THEY-WON'T THEY & TIER JUMP STREET

Both of these tiers really worked out the best. Tier Will They-Won't They was cleared up across the board with the exception of, maybe, Andy Dalton. Although, I have an opinion on matters with the Red Rocket.

Tier Jump Street did just that, jumped over the group ahead of it (except for Cam Newton). Tier Worthy of the Hype all had reasons for sub par seasons (again except for Cam). Russell Wilson actually probably performed better in a real football sense, but failed to take the next step fantasy wise.

Honorable Mention: Cam Newton still delivering and my multi-week coverage of Nick Foles in Philly.

RB - MATT FORTE

Here was my hope for Forte this season:

"Out of any RB outside of the Top 10, Forte has the chance to break into the top 5 this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened."

Forte finished as the 3rd overall RB in fantasy, and he was also one of the most consistent fantasy players of the year. Lots of value for Forte investors.

Honorable Mention: Dropping Ray Rice down in my ranks, Tier Barry Sanders (LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles), questioning the job security of both Montee Ball and David Wilson.

WR - JOSH GORDON & TIER WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?

A two game ban meant nothing for me when it came to Josh Gordon. I can't say I had him as fantasy's #1 overall receiver, but #34with a kind note? I'll take it.

All of Tier What Are We Doing Here? underperformed with the exception of some quick flashes from Andre Johnson.

Honorable Mention: My tri-cycle theory with WR. Win!

TE - TONY GONZALEZ

Most of my TE success came in my week to week ranks. There was a lot of turnover and decent players that emerged. Not many victories to take, and I certainly wouldn't count a win for trusting Tony Gonzalez, but that's where we are at. Assuming Gonzalez does retire, it's a fond farewell to the greatest TE ever and a player that played consistently at an high level.

Honorable Mention: Not trusting Jermichael Finley - although I wish him the best in his recovery.

JUST A BIT OUTSIDE

QB - TONY ROMO

Like most people, it's more fun to remember the bad times for Romo than the good. His 31 TDs and 10 INTs was one of the best ratios in football, and while he didn't always perform spectacularly, he should have been ranked higher.

RB - EDDIE LACY

I told Green Bay to prove me wrong. To become a running football team, and the did just that. How much Aaron Rodgers' injury played into that, I don't know, but Lacy is here to stay. He's a top 6 back with a healthy Rodgers under center.

WR - ALSHON JEFFERY

For just simply ever doubting Alshon.

TE - JULIUS THOMAS

Biggest miss of the year. Julius Thomas wasn't on my radar at all. Looking back at Week 1, Thomas could have been my 1% and been an excellent call, but I just had no idea who he was or what he could do. The first time I heard about him was from Andy Beherens. Thomas was dinged up a bit, but proved to be a major weapon for Manning, and a likely reason Denver will let Eric Decker go this off season.

As a nice segue, let's move to the notable hits and misses for the actual FAABulous column. Much like last year, I feel like there were a lot more successes than failures (including the ability to insert Twitter comments and GIFs), but I think I may have stretched my player pool a bit thin with too many recommendations. Something I might have to keep in mind for next year. Also, Week 14, 15 & 16 were playoff match-up editions, so no add/drops for those weeks. Anyways, onward!

After some back and forth, it's hard to doubt Nick Foles moving foward. (rantsports.com)

TROPHY KIDS: I MEASURE MY SUCCESSES VICARIOUSLY THROUGH YOU

WEEK 1

KNOWSHON MORENO (41% OWNED)

CHRISTINE MICHAEL (26%)

I'm pretty sure this is the last year I'l be able to pick Moreno as an underrated pick. Hey, remember when Christine Michael was a thing this year?

WEEK 2

HARRY DOUGLAS (1%)

JULIAN EDELMAN (25%)

Solid week. I was skeptical of Roddy White's health all year, and later in the season when Julio Jones went down, Douglas became the top WR option in Atlanta. He got 1,000 yards, but only 2 TD. I was less bullish on Edelman, but since Danny Amendola completely no-showed this year and Rob Gronkowski was out for a while, Edelman got a chance to shine. After he signs his free agent contract this off season he should tweet a thanks to Tom Brady.

WEEK 3

ANDRE ELLINGTON (1%)

Showed off his explosiveness and increased his touches as the season went on. Finished 80th overall.

WEEK 5

CHARLES CLAY (48%)

He really impressed this year. Built a strong connection with Ryan Tannehill.

WEEK 6

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON (17%)

ZAC STACY (17%)

KEENAN ALLEN (6%)

This is an all-star week. Stacy was a beast when healthy this year, and Keenan Allen is an offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Patterson came on later, but he's a target to keep an eye on next year.

WEEK 7

NICK FOLES (12%)

JARRETT BOYKIN (3%)

Oh, that Nick Foles. He cured what ailed a lot of teams struggling at QB. Boykin had his moments in the sun, but his opportunities set near the last quarter of the season. With James Jones on the way out, Boykin laid some groundwork for next season.

WEEK 8

DONALD BROWN (8%)

MARVIN JONES (2%)

JOSH MCCOWN (1%)

Donald Brown was just better than Trent Richardson. Marvin Jones scored 4 TD's if you added him this week. Josh McCown went on an absolute tear subbing for Jay Cutler.

WEEK 10

ANDRE BROWN (37%)

RILEY COOPER (9%)

Always liked me some Andre Brown. Cooper emerged from controversy and had a career year (#72 overall).

WEEK 11

SHANE VEREEN (49%)

RASHAD JENNINGS (49%)

BOBBY RAINEY (4%)

Three solid rushers to help you along the way. Rainey had a huge game this week, when most were opting for Brian Leonard.

Percy Harvin couldn't escape the grasp of the inactive list in 2013. (seahawks.com)

TROPHY KIDS: YOU BLEW IT!

WEEK 2

TERELLE PRYOR (12% OWNED)

What's that, future me? Pryor would lose his job to Matt McGloin? Oh ... thanks.

WEEK 3

EDDIE ROYAL (23%)

PERCY HARVIN (31%)

No dice with these receivers. Harvin's best opportunity to help any fantasy owners comes this weekend for those that play playoff fantasy football. I wouldn't count on him.

WEEK 5

ROBERT WOODS (13%)

Let's just say I had higher hopes for Woods and E.J. Manuel this year.

WEEK 7

AARON DOBSON (15%)

Rolled the dice with Bill Belichick's offense and lost.

WEEK 8

GENO SMITH (13%)

Darkness is everywhere. RT @RoobCSN: If Nick Foles threw INTs on his next 50 passes, he'd still have a higher passer rating than Geno Smith.
— Dan Hanzus (@DanHanzus) December 1, 2013

WEEK 9

DANIEL THOMAS (16%)

DEXTER MCCLUSTER (5%)

PEYTON HILLIS (40%)

I refuse to believe I felt good writing about any of these guys in Week 9.

WEEK 10

ANDREW HAWKINS (1%)
I still really do like Hawkins. Just not Andy Dalton.

WEEK 11

TAVON AUSTIN (44%)

DENNIS JOHNSON (21%)
Week late on Austin, but didn't miss much. Dennis Johnson is this year's Ahmad Bradshaw Award winner for RB you hold onto assuming the RB ahead of him on the depth chart surely can't play (Ben Tate with broken ribs).

WEEK 12

CHRIS OGBONNAYA (1%)
It honestly wasn't worth trying to figure out how to spell his name for how little value he provided.

WEEK 13

ALL BALTIMORE RAVENS

Damn you, Joe Flacco.

That's the rundown in all it's beauty and bruises. It's been another fun year, and I even got a one-time sponsorship from Fan Duel. So I can officially say I earned money from this! Exciting times, and this will likely be back next year. As for what's next ... well, it's fantasy baseball season, folks. See you soon.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

2013-12-18T11:59:00.003-05:00

Jamaal Charles got to know the end zone very well on Sunday. (GETTY)

Delanie Walker is a weapon in the suddenly aggressive Titans' pass game. (rantsports.com)

QB - Nick Foles, PHI v +Chicago Bears, Colin Kaepernick, SF v +Atlanta Falcons

More Nick Foles. You know what to do with him. Kaepernick on the other hand has probably been the most disappointing QB this year. Whether it's Jim Harbaugh's decision to stop running Kaep that much or it's just a learning curve, the 2nd year starter has not lived up to expectations. The 49ers have shown some signs of life and getting Michael Crabtree back has helped, so there is an opportunity for a big game against the defeated Falcons.

If you're desperate: Andy Dalton, CIN v +Minnesota Vikings, Jay Cutler, CHI @ +Philadelphia Eagles

These look good on paper, but when it comes to Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler you just never know. I'm rather surprised that many people are looking past Cutler's fleas after one decent performance back from his injury. The Eagles had their toast buttered by Matt Cassel last week, but you have to imagine their performance will more resemble how the team has played in previous weeks - Dallas victory or not - on Sunday night. But I get it with Cutler. If the Eagles push the pace, then that's more opportunities for Cutler to launch it to the best WR tandem in football, but that also increases his opportunities to make a mistake. Cutler's season high for fantasy points is 23.02. Tread lightly.

RB - Jamaal Charles, KC v +Indianapolis Colts, Matt Forte, CHI @ +Philadelphia Eagles

Yep, that's right don't bench Jamaal Charles. You're welcome. Overall though this is a hat tip to two of the most consistent fantasy players this year. In head to head match ups, there is no denying the comfort of not having any bum performances by your top tailback.

If you're desperate: Reggie Bush, DET v +New York Giants, Ben Tate, HOU v +Denver Broncos

It's hard to trust Matt Stafford after watching that game last week. He looked atrocious, and he certainly cost some of his owners a playoff win. Bush was able to battle back from a calf injury to look explosive and productive. Stafford will always air it out to Calvin, but it would make sense for the Lions to try to keep his errors in check by relying heavlily on Bush.

The Texans season was over a dozen weeks ago. What a train wreck. However, let's keep in mind that Mr. Ben Tate has put together a great season filling in for Adrian Foster as well as playing for that fat contract he's looking to land in the off-season. All systems are a go for Tate to get carries even if the Texans are down 100.

UPDATE: I don't normally do this, but Ben Tate broke another rib and hours ago was put on IR. Dennis Johnson is the Texan to add, but I'll toss some love towards Fred Jackson, BUF @ +Miami Dolphins

If you're desperate, grab Dennis Johnson MT @sportywineguy Ben Tate has another cracked rib so he's going on injured reserve.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) December 18, 2013

WR - Chicago Bears receivers, Demaryius Thomas, DEN v +Houston Texans, Julian Edelman, NE v +Baltimore Ravens, Antonio Brown, PIT v GB

Alshon, always and forever.

People are worried that the Broncos will be up 70 and halftime and rest everyone. Well, guess what? If they score 70 by halftime, someone still catches those touchdowns. This feels like a Demaryius game. He had a clunker last week, but before that consistently has gotten to either 100 yards, a TD or both. He's a safe play even if Wes Welker is back.

Let's also hail Mini-tron, Julian Edelman. I was a tentative believer in him early on, but he's really come along as a Tom Brady favorite. Sure, it took his star tight end to get injured yet again, his top RB to be benched, and Danny Amendola to be completely untrustworthy to happen, but still.

And Antonio Brown continues to be the most underappreicated offensive player in football.

If you're desperate: Riley Cooper, PHI v CHI, Kendall Wright, TEN @ +Jacksonville Jaguars

People are gaga about the Bears' offensive possibilities, but the Eagles' offense is pretty good too. Cooper is due.

Fear Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titans. It's almost like they can't wait to cut Chris Johnson when the year is over.

TE - Julius Thomas, DEN v +Houston Texans, Delanie Walker, TEN @ +Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas hasn't been his usual self since his injury, but after two games back in action I think he's ready to go. The Broncos are looking to make a statement and they're not going to be happy or tentative heading to Houston. TD's galore.

Delanie Walker is a fave of mine this year. I loved him last week as a TE play, and with Jordan Cameron getting diagnosed with a concussion on Monday, I like Walker even more.

If you're desperate: Zach Miller, SEA v +Arizona Cardinals, Tyler Eifert, CIN v +Minnesota Vikings

Miller has not come through for me, but I'm not one to quit on a guy so fast. The Cardinals have a solid defense, and I'm not sure how much damage the Seahawks receivers can do against Patrick Peterson's group. I would expect Miller to be one of the more available options for Russell Wilson.

Eifert might be sliding into starting TE duties against Minnesota, and that's a great thing.

K - Phil Dawson, SF v +Atlanta Falcons, Alex Henery, PHI v CHI

DEF - Kansas City v +Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions v +New York Giants

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 15

2013-12-10T14:52:00.001-05:00

Rob Gronkowski left the field, not to return for the rest of the year. (GETTY)

Well, if your league didn't start the playoffs last week, they certainly are this week. What a way to kick things off. Week 14 was the highest scoring week in NFL history with 104 touchdowns total. Yes, if you didn't put up a lot of fantasy points this weekend, then I don't know what to tell you.

As if the high scoring wasn't enough, there was a storm that passed through the East coast leading to some snow bowls. None quite as ridiculous as the Eagles and Lions game, which I attended. The snow fall was so severe in the first half that I left my plastic beer cup in the cup holder and within 15 minutes it was filled with snow. You couldn't really see what was going on 35 yards down field, and replays on the big screens looked like your cable went out. Note: LeSean McCoy was not affected.

So we have scoring, we have snow, we have fun gifs - what else? Well, there was a coach fired, another coach seeming wanting to be fired, a failed miracle play in Pittsburgh due to another sideline controversy, oh and Alshon Jeffery.

There's fun football weeks, there's great football weeks, and then there's Week 14. Well, for a small percentage of fantasy players Week 14 wasn't all snowballs and points. Yes, two major injuries went down. Rob Gronkowski, fresh of his multiple arm breaks, was hit low in a gruesome hit by Browns' safety T.J. Ward (at least it wasn't Bernard Pollard) nullifying him for the rest of the regular season and playoffs. The other injury wasn't as severe, but just as brutal for fantasy owners as Adrian Peterson picked up a foot injury. The most recent reports don't show Peterson's foot injury as serious - as in surgery serious - but will likely cause him to miss Week 15 and potentially sit out for the rest of the year as a precautionary measure because if you're the Vikings, really, what's the point of throwing him back out there?

Ideally, if you're a contending team you have solid back-ups, but it's a big blow regardless. The best part of the playoffs though is that you don't need Toby Gerhart to carry your hopes and dreams for 6 weeks, just a couple, and match-ups play a big part in possibly getting through these kinds of injuries.

God speed to you fellow fantasy players, and let's look at some Love/Hate (h/t +Matthew Berry , Flames/Lames (h/t Brad Evans).

Cam Newton is here to rescue you. (winsnlosses.com)

QB - Nick Foles, PHI @ +Minnesota Vikings, Cam Newton, CAR v NYJ

Yes, you can't keep Nick Foles down. You just can't! He's walking into another favorable match-up against the Vikings. I doubt the crowd in Minny will cause much of a fuss, and Foles should have time to pile up the stats. The one stat I heard that caused me some pause was that Foles - unexpectedly - is among the league leaders in seconds it takes to get rid of the football. You'd assume that in Chip Kelly's offense he'd be winging it around, and although this past weekend was a bad indicator of this as visibility was terrible in the first half, I did start to notice it watching some of his past highlights. This is certainly a kudos to the Eagles' offensive line, but should they have an off day, the Vikings do have the D-line to cause some issues.

It's hard not to have a love/hate relationship with Cam Newton. He can pile up the points with the best of them, but sometimes he just goes into stink mode and doesn't do anything. He is running at a higher clip recently averaging 9.45 yards per carry and had at least 2 touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He gets the Jets at home, and he will be looking to bounce back from a poor performance in New Orleans.

If you're desperate: Jason Campbell, CLE v CHI, Ryan Tannehill, MIA v +New England Patriots

These are both great match-up plays for two relatively low % owned quarterbacks. If Campbell can make it through the game, he can just launch balls to Josh Gordon all day and it just appears that Josh Gordon will undoubtedly catch them. Also as a note, last week's pick-up at TE Jordan Cameron came back to life with Campbell tossing him the football. A good sign all around.

The Dolphins and Bengals are both teams I quit on. The Dolphins around the whole bullying incident and the Bengals when they lost Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. Well, they've proven me wrong and cost me gambling dollars in the process. For all the conversation that goes around having young quarterbacks in the right situation, it certainly appears that Tannehill has been in anything but that. However, he's improved over the course of the year, and has a high floor. He's recorded double digit fantasy points in every game this year (his lowest output being 12.88 at New England in Week 8) and he's put up 19, 22 and 24 fantasy points the last 3 weeks at Carolina and on the road against the Jets and Steelers respectively. Pretty impressive, young Tannehill.

RB - Marshawn Lynch, SEA @ +New York Giants, Shane Vereen, NE @ +Miami Dolphins

Yes, I love Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles, but here are two lower projected backs that I think will have a big day. The Giants have only pride to play for, and the Seahawks will be travelling a long way for another road game after a tough loss to San Francisco. I would expect Lynch to see the ball a lot to set up Seattle's play action and to grind the game down after the Seahawks go up big. Take note of the stadium in New Jersey, Seahawks, you might very well be back there in a couple of months.

Vereen graduates from "If you're desperate" to start him this week. He established himself in a big way last week with 153 receiving yards, and with Gronk out there will be an even greater focus on Vereen and Julian Edelman.

If you're desperate: Alfred Morris, WAS @ +Atlanta Falcons, Ryan Mathews, SD @ +Denver Broncos

Well, this Washington team is a mess. We're not sure who is starting for the Shanahan led squad, but if it's Robert Griffin III or Kurt Cousins it really won't matter for Morris. The run option plays that led to Morris' breakout campaign last year have been thrown out of the playbook due to their ineffectiveness, not wanting RGIII to run and get hurt, or both. When Washington trails, they don't run the ball, but this week, they won't have any other options. Now only if Shanahan would give Morris the red zone touches as well, we'd be on to something!

For all the ills that Mathews has caused in his career. Fantasy owners can't be disappointed in what he's given to them this year as a much lower round draft pick. The injuries are still lingering, but he's gotten steady carries and steady production. I do like him more than Toby Gerhart simply because the Eagles defense - who Gerhart will face - has been playing much better lately, especially at keeping teams out of the end zone. He's a good desperation play if your bench running backs consist of BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Lamar Miller, but Mathews has more upside.

WR - Calvin Johnson, DET v +Baltimore Ravens, Alshon Jeffery, CHI @ CLE, Andre Johnson - HOU @ +Indianapolis Colts, A.J. Green, CIN @ +Pittsburgh Steelers

Lots of big time receivers lining up for big time games. You would think A.J. Green is a no brainier, and he really is, but while his season has been good, it's been spectacularly quiet. The numbers are there, but he's not in that top tier of receivers I thought he'd be coming into the season. Facing Joe Haden multiple times a season won't help, but you wonder if Andy Dalton is taking his toll on Green.

I'll never question Jeffery ever.

If you're desperate: Torrey Smith, BAL v +Detroit Lions , Anquan Boldin, SF @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN v +Philadelphia Eagles, Julian Edelman, NE @ +Miami Dolphins

Two of these three are total home run plays. Smith and Patterson have the potential to go off. Smith is actually a very nice play against the Lions, and Patterson is starting to figure things out as of late. Boldin will likely be the guy not covered by Darelle Revis, which is always nice. Sorry, Michael Crabtree.

TE - Jordan Cameron, CLE v CHI, Charles Clay, MIA v +New England Patriots

Cameron is back baby! And don't let the Cowboys' terrible performance Monday night fool you, the Bears' defense isn't very good.

If you haven't enjoyed a week out of Charles Clay then shame on you. The FAABulous favorite has 6 TD's on the year and is approaching 700 yards receiving. He's outperformed Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates.

If you're desperate: Delanie Walker, TEN @ +Denver Broncos, Zach Miller, SEA - v +New York Giants

The tricky thing with Walker is he's a Thursday night play which, if it goes poorly, puts you in a hole. But he would be my #1 widely available addition to replace Gronk. Miller is a more risky play, but his match up in NJ is a favorable one. He has shown the ability to make a big play here or there, and he slightly beat out Brent Celek, who is even more TD dependent than Miller.

Plus, now we need more options at TE than ever since we can all accept that Ladarius Green is just a figment of fantasy experts' imagination and move on with our lives.

K - Stephen Gostkowski, NE @ +Miami Dolphins, Mason Crosby, GB @ +Dallas Cowboys

People want to keep ranking Crosby so low, and I don't understand it. If the Aaron Rodgers injury benefited anyone fantasy wise it's Crosby, and he hasn't disappointed all year.

DEF - Carolina v +New York Jets, San Francisco @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, you're playing Seattle against the Giants, and Kansas City is capable of still giving bad teams trouble, but Carolina going up against the Geno Smith or Matt Simms combo platter? Yippy skippy.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 14

2013-12-03T11:47:00.001-05:00

Eric Decker, just when I thought you couldn't disappoint me any more you go and do something like this. (ctpost.com)

AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!

If this was a week you needed to win and get into the playoffs or if it was just the penultimate week in your league, there were no shortage of big time players doing their best to help you if they were on your roster. Most notably the wide receivers.

This was the first time since 1960 when 3 WRs scored more than 35 fantasy points in the same week. (Decker - 41, Gordon - 38, Jeffery- 36)
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) December 2, 2013

Those point totals, also were the top 3 in all of football for Week 13. Even weirder, the first QB doesn't show up until Peyton Manning at #6, who just threw for 403 yards and 4 TD. Adrian Peterson is #9 with the quietest 211 yard game you'll ever have. It was a weird, crazy week.

But let's get back to the receivers. Yes, it was historic, yes if you lost starting any of these three receivers you should be embarrassed, and yes, out of these three receivers one needed this kind of game more than the others. That one receiver is Eric Decker.

Decker had gone 4 games without a score, and in those 4 games amassed 170 yards - otherwise known as a Josh Gordon first half. The lure of keeping Decker in your line-up every week was strong because let's face it, he's a good receiver and Peyton Manning could decide to get him the ball any given Sunday. Well, this past Sunday was that day.

Coming off a 0.50 point game, benching Decker had to be on plenty of people's minds. I know one person in my money league did it, as well as my Facebook friend who solicited advice previously for Gio Bernard (his options were Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, or Eric Decker: FWIW I would have gone with Wright and Decker).

Well that turned out not to be the best decision. Decker had the game of his life. As the recipient of every Manning TD pass, Decker actually outscored himself for the whole season in this one game (3 TD prior to 4 in the game) and sent owners swooning either in joy or fainting that he's chilling on the bench.

Decker owners have been annoyed with him all year. And no, it's not just because the guy has a hot wife (please feel free to Google ... I'll wait) but it's because his inconsistency and ADP haven't paid off. With the new look passing game in Denver, I assumed Wes Welker would be the key contributor to a slight Decker decline as I noted in my WR Ranks.

Thomas seems to be the safest pick out of all the Denver wide receivers simply because he's the most dynamic out of the bunch. Welker seems geared up to get his catches, and Decker might be viewed widely to get the small piece of chicken, those two are a lot closer than most rankings state. Thomas though is the match-up nightmare with the ability to make plays in all quadrants of the football field.

As it turns out though everyone from Knowshon Moreno, Julius Thomas and Montee Ball have contributed to Decker's inconsistency.

Sadly, it's to be expected that many Decker owners didn't get to cash in. He was slumping and if you had another reasonable alternative there's no shame in benching Decker. To bench Josh Gordon just means you aren't paying attention, and Jeffery against Minnesota is a good match-up but not something you'd go out of the way to start him against (for the record I started him over Moreno at Flex in my money league and it was probably the highlight of my 2013 fantasy season). While it has been frustrating with limited rewards to keep Decker in your line-up, this was the payoff that many owners were hoping for.

Hope is exactly what this time of year is all about in fantasy. The big game, the playoff hero that will carry us to an upset or a deserved victory. Yes, more than any other fantasy sport, you only need to get into the playoffs to rattle off a couple of miraculous wins. I won a fantasy title in 2007 basically due to Aaron Stecker. These things happen and match-ups and hope are the most important things to look at. So with the playoffs here and many, many players having already been mentioned throughout the season, I'm going to list some players I like for specifically Week 14. Call this Love/Hate or Flames/Lames or whatever, but I figure this would be the best way to provide more pertinent info this late in the year.

Good or bad, Matthew Stafford can pile up fantasy points. (si.com)

QB - Matthew Stafford, DET @ +Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles, PHI v. +Detroit Lions

These QBs will be going head to head in a big game for both teams. In some ways, these teams are similar in their high powered offense and shoddy secondary. It's hard to foresee anything but a high scoring game.

The beauty about Stafford is that even when he's bad, he puts up fantasy points. Hell, the guy had 4 INT's two weeks ago and still rattled off 20.48 fantasy points - which is amazing considering the guy doesn't run a la Cam Newton.

Foles isn't quite fantasy proof, but he can have a decent game but still put up big points based on the fact that he doesn't turn the ball over. In all of his starts this year, he's only thrown for more than 300 yards once, but Chip Kelly trusts him in the end zone and with a 19:0 TD to INT ratio, how could you not?

If you're desperate: Josh McCown, CHI v. +Dallas Cowboys , Joe Flacco, BAL v. +Minnesota Vikings

We know what Flacco does this time of year, and a Minnesota secondary that got battered by Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery last week will be happy not to have them around, but they will be chasing down Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones all day.

RB - Eddie Lacy, GB v +Atlanta Falcons, Shane Vereen NE v CLE

Lacy was a no show on Thanksgiving, so call him well rested. The Packers won't be trailing by nearly as much against the punchless Falcons at Lambeau. Stevan Ridley was inactive for the Patriots this past week, and it doesn't look like they really want him back in the mix. Vereen is the constant, but Brandon Bolden did great as well. The Browns don't have a bad rush defense, but Vereen is able to catch the ball out of the backfield and brings a lot of options for Brady and company.

If you're desperate: C.J. Spiller, BUF @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Donald Brown, IND @ +Cincinnati Bengals

If Eric Decker can give us something back this holiday season, then why not Spiller? You're looking for home run plays from C.J. and that's really all you can hope for. Also, in case you haven't watched the Colts for the past month, they've been terrible. But at least they're trying to put their best players on the field by benching Trent Richardson in favor of Donald Brown.

WR - Alshon Jeffery, CHI v +Dallas Cowboys, Vincent Jackson, TB v +Buffalo Bills, Riley Cooper, PHI v +Detroit Lions

It's pretty clear which wide receivers have tasty match-ups based on my QB picks. You're obviously starting Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant so here are some widely owned but lesser mentioned receivers. Jeffery and Jackson both deserve a lot of attention for this Sunday, and I like Cooper more than DeSean Jackson as well.

Also, not that I would bench Josh Gordon, but he has a sneaky tough match-up against the Pats. The Pats have their issues, but the Pats do a great job locking down the opposing teams' #1 receiver. All year only three have found the end zone (Stevie Johnson - if he counts, Antonio Brown, and Demariyus Thomas). That's it. Aquib Talib's health plays a factor, but with Bill Belichick it's always about the strategy.

If you're desperate: Mike Wallace, MIA @ +Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacoby Jones, BAL v +Minnesota Vikings

Mike Wallace going off against his former team in the Steel City would be such a Mike Wallace thing.

TE - Rob Gronkowski, NE v @ CLE, Jordan Cameron, CLE v +New England Patriots

I mean, it's impossible not to love Gronk. Also, if BB is able to keep Gordon in check, then QB Browns has to get the ball to Cameron.

If you're desperate: Ladarius Green, SD v +New York Giants, Tim Wright, TB v +Buffalo Bills

Every week there's a new hot shot TE out there. Green's value is tied to if Antonio Gates can go, and it looks like he will. Green will still get plenty of action as the Chargers seem content with a two TE set. When it comes down to end zone looks though, Gates is still the top target.

Come on, Tim Wright! We can do this together!

K - Blair Walsh, MIN v +Baltimore Ravens, Nick Novak, SD v +New York Giants

DEF - Cincinnati v +Indianapolis Colts, Arizona v +St. Louis Rams

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 13

2013-11-26T11:26:00.002-05:00

Stevan Ridley is forcing Bill Belichick to look for other options at RB. (GETTY)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

As sports fans, we like to romanticize games in our minds. When many of us forget the epic Pats and Broncos game Sunday night, we will most likely remember the story of two halves. Peyton Manning leading his juggernaut Broncos team to a commanding 24-0 lead at halftime, only to have Tom Brady do Tom Brady things and bring his Patriots back to secure an overtime victory. This was certainly a huge win for the Pats, and time will tell if this victory served as a warning of the Patriots tenacity, or just a reminder to keep the pedal to the metal for the Broncos once the playoffs get underway.

Yes, it's easy to want to look at the offensive side of things, but what really caused this raucous affair to unfold on national television was something much uglier. Turnovers.

Each team can attribute 17 points allowed due to seven total turnovers (3 for the Pats, 4 for the Broncos) which wildly swung the game from start to finish.

Two of the main culprits of the turnovers were Stevan Ridley and Montee Ball. Two running backs who have almost made it their calling card this year. Ridley, the primary back in New England, leads all non-QB players with fumbles lost (3 rushing, 1 receiving) and Montee Ball, the rookie back who has fumbled and lost the football 3 times on minimal carries as the back up to Knowshon.

Both were immediately benched for the rest of the game. Presumably not as "punishment," which is an antiquated thought since this is the NFL and not preschool, but so these two couldn't go back on the field and fumble again.

Ridley and Ball have shown time and time again that they have trouble securing the football. When opposing teams know this, I'd say their efforts at ripping the ball from these RBs loose grips increases about 72.1%. They are a liability on the field and whether it's mental or a flaw in their technique, this isn't going to get any better for these struggling, albeit talented backs.

So far this year, both have had fantasy relevance. Ridley was the 24th player taken on average in ESPN fantasy drafts, and Ball is the highly rated rookie out of Wisconsin and took my #22 RB ranking pre-season, and the player whom many thought was going to be the starter in Denver by this point in the year. He's even been sneaking into some goal line opportunities recently despite his issues. Given their individual hype, both have been a bust so far this year. The final hammer may have fallen on these backs Sunday night, with the fear being that both would be relegated to the bench for the rest of the season. Let's look at each player's situation and see if that's the case.

Starting with Ridley, he is both the more important fantasy player, but also the one in the most jeopardy. Ridley was the undisputed starter for the Patriots, granted with a lot of competition. Shane Vereen has his role as third down back, Brandon Bolden as well, and LeGarrette Blount as a change of pace. Vereen and Bolden have had injury issues throughout the season, but now both are back and healthy.

This leaves Ridley in the doghouse of Bill Belichick with plenty of viable options to take his place. Belichick, of course, has the gumption to outright bench Ridley for his crew of other runningbacks. Belichick has a system in place on offense with players that are interchangable, unless it's Tom Brady.

Bolden had a solid game filling in for Ridley running for 58 yards and a TD along with an 11 yard catch. If he can up his game, he is a legitimate threat to take Ridley's spot.

Vereen will continue to be utilized primarily as a pass catcher, and I'm sure BB will feed him the ball if he's on his rushing game.

Blount, who had a fumble of his own, isn't really a threat to anyone.

The positive thing for Ridley is that he is the most talented every down back the Patirots have, and they are looking to win a Super Bowl. Suddenly benching him and limiting the offensive options the Pats have won't help anyone. Belichick has some trick up his sleeve that will help Ridley overcome this issue one way or another. If that's drilling during practice or limiting his touches on the ball, Belichick will pull out all of the stops. Ridley is too important a player for the Pats to become an afterthought, but the primary risk I see is if Bolden has a big game. That could have Bolden and Ridley swap roles.

Ball has been looming over the past couple of weeks. He's fumbled three times on 75 carries, but he's still gotten double digit touches in his last two games; including a 2 TD performance against Kansas City. This whole time Knowshon Moreno has been a destroyer of worlds in fantasy. Currently rated the 7th overall player in fantasy this year, Moreno carried the ball 37 times for 224 yards and a TD on a bruised ankle. While Moreno has been underappreciated all year, he really put his stamp on the starting RB position with that performance.

Along with Moreno's herculean performance, Ball's latest fumble also paved the way for C.J. Anderson - an undrafted rookie from California - to get some significant action. He's only gotten to line-up next to Petyon in two games this year, but is averaging over 5 yards per carry. Certainly a limited sample size, and no one knows what his ball handling ability is (he almost lost a hand off on Sunday), but there have been positive returns.

If Moreno can't go (it appears he will) against a weakened Kansas City defense, I would imagine Anderson and Ball will split carries. The Broncos aren't going to give up on Ball, but if his fumbling issues can't be corrected, then there will always be next year for him. Ultimately, barring injury, it doesn't look like Ball will be the primary back in Denver for the rest of the season.

It's interesting that these two backs, in this one game, can have their issues boil over and truly jeopardize their involvement in the team moving forward. That's not to say that there isn't a bit of bad luck on their side (I'm sure Bill Barnwell agrees). Plenty of running backs have fumbled as much as Ridley and Ball. Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, and Jamaal Charles all have 3 fumbles, but only Peterson has lost all three. Statistically, Ridley and Ball should have had some better fortune on their own team recovering these errors, but at the same time, no one will mistake either of their on-field impact in the same terms of an Adrian Peterson. The mistakes for these two backs are much less forgivable.

Sorry for all the doom and gloom pre-Thanksgiving. I would have liked to just watch this .gif over and over again. Man, did anyone's afternoon go from awesome to terrible faster than Scott Tolzien?

Carson Palmer, QB - ARZ (40% owned) @ +Philadelphia Eagles

Good Gawd, it's Carson Palmer! The Cardinals ar 7-4? I had no idea. Palmer has really clicked with Michael Floyd recently and he also has that Larry Fitzgerald guy which has produced back to back 20+ point games. A road game in Philadelphia is a bit tougher than it was earlier in the year, but the potential is still there for Palmer to make this his third straight 20 point day.

Jacoby Jones, WR - BAL (12%) +Pittsburgh Steelers

A word of warning, there are a lot of Ravens and Steelers on this list. The primary reason is that both of these teams were terrible at the beginning of the year, but are starting to emerge right now. Their Thanksgiving Day game has a lot of talking heads saying the winner of that game will be the favorite for the last playoff spot in the AFC. Go figure! Oh, as for Jones, he's a constant deep threat, and for Flacco to win, he needs to air it out.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR - PIT (35%) v. +Baltimore Ravens

He's not the most exciting player to own. Antonio Brown is the undisputed big dog in the Steel City, but Cotchery has held his own as the WR2B to Emmanuel Sanders WR2A.

Bernard Pierce, RB - BAL (24%) @ +Pittsburgh Steelers

Not that Pierce has taken the job from Ray Rice by any stretch, but the run game in Baltimore has been so pathetic that at some point John Harbaugh just has to give Pierce 25 carries and see what he can do, right?

John Carlson, TE - MIN (12%) v. +Chicago Bears

This Bears defense is atrocious. If Cordarrelle Patterson has 3 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs I wouldn't be shocked. Look for Carlson to get a lot of play.

Dennis Pitta, TE - BAL (3%) v. +Baltimore Ravens

A pre-season sleeper pick, Pitta is working his way back to the starting line-up. He participated in walk-throughs on Monday, but isn't expected to be ready for Thursday. Could be a good stash if you're thin at TE.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Benny Cunningham, RB - StL (3%) @ SF

We've been here with Daryl Richardson (fail) and Isaiah Pead (fail), and Zac Stacy (success). I don't expect much from Cunningham on the road in San Francisco.

THE 1%

C.J. Anderson, RB - DEN (1%) @ +Kansas City Chiefs

This isn't your Week 10 Chiefs defense. Aside from having a tough time with Denver a couple of weeks ago and two of their best pass rushers picking up knocks, you can't be going into Arrowhead too nervous. Moreno will likely play, but even if he does you have to imagine the coaching staff will look to take it a bit easier on a guy with a bruised ankle that's carried the ball 64 times in the last two games. I'd expect Moreno to have a more "normal" 15 carries and more catches. Anderson and Ball can split the remaining 15, and it's a ~~coin flip~~ rock, paper, scissor from there.

PERSONS OF INTEREST

Julian Edelman, WR - NE (38%), Brandon Bolden, RB - NE (6%), Nate Burleson, WR - DET (23%), Jacob Tamme, TE - DEN (2%), Dennis Johnson, RB - HOU (11%), Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (17%), Mike Glennon, QB - TB (21%), Cordarrelle Patterson, WR - MIN (18%), Bilal Powell, RB (39%)

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 12

2013-11-19T10:44:00.000-05:00

Fantasy owners rejoiced Bobby Rainey's Week 11 performance. Fantasy writers rejoiced being able to make easy puns. (si.com)

Looking for a Fight @ UFC 167: GSP v. Hendricks

2013-11-16T13:02:00.001-05:00

Johny Hendricks looks to end Georges St-Pierre's reign at welterweight. (scifighting.com)

I mentioned that with the UFC celebrating it's 20 years this week that there's a lot to discuss and review. All networks that cover the UFC as well as the organization itself has done a great job showcasing how far the sport has come along in a short time. There's a lot to digest and a lot to take in, so I highly suggest you go peruse everything places like mmafighting.com and UFC.com have to offer. There is a mega card this weekend, so I'll just pass along a couple of quick thoughts on the UFC and how it's affected my sports fandom then get right to GSP v. Hendricks.

Personally, I first started getting into the UFC the first year after I graduate from college. My best friend from home had apparently gotten into it his senior year with his roommates, so he invited me over for a pay per view. I knew a little about the UFC. Very little. This was probably a couple of months before Roger Huerta's Sports Illustrated cover came out.

I'm a big sports fan, so I was intrigued by a sport that had caught the attention of my friend, who at the time, probably didn't know who Peyton Manning was.

We are sitting in the living room of his apartment, and I just start asking basic questions. Not about the rules, as I thought I'd be able to figure those out, but about the fandom of the UFC.

"Who's the biggest star?"
"Chuck Liddell."

"Who is the biggest fan favorite? The guy everyone likes?"
"Randy Couture."

"Who is your favorite fighter?"
"This up and coming guy, Georges St-Pierre (or how I transcribed it in my mind at the time: George St. Pierre)."

These basic tenants are what started my path to become a UFC fan. I can't remember what really made me decide I'm in on this sport. There wasn't a moment where I realized this sport was for me. What I do remember is just wanting to know about the fighters.

This actually proved to be kind of difficult way back in 2007. There was the Ultimate Fighter, but that didn't show UFC stars fighting. There weren't many options for free fights on YouTube or at UFC.com, and the amount of media (Fox Sports, ESPN, Yahoo!, and such) were barely or non-existent. I've never been a big message board guy, so I wasn't digging a bunker in Sherdog world, just looking around.

Over time though, as my friend and I would order the pay per views and watch them I just couldn't get enough. I quickly acted as my n00b self liking the champs, but as my knowledge of the sport developed I started liking other "non-champs" as well.

Slowly but surely I just kept consuming information. Remembering fights and fighters. Of course also finding a passion for the sport itself. My friend and I also grew up on the WWF. So while the UFC wasn't the spectacle the UFC (except for Dana White) was, I was happy to engage in the realness of the fighters and the storylines that UFC marketing put together. Let's face it, to get into this type of occupation, you probably have an interesting history.

Becoming a fan of the UFC wasn't a matter of getting into it, but rather just opening your eyes to the obvious. This is an exhilarating and thrilling sports event. There isn't a regular season in the UFC, it's the Super Bowl every month.

To this day, when people - notably: my friends who are primarily (not to be sexist, the UFC is fine for the whole family to love) 20-35 year old males - don't like the UFC, don't get it, think it's too slow, or most horridly find it to be homoerotic (another note: this specific person is not my friend he was a friend of a friend) I can't even begin to explain how wrong they are. To have those thoughts while watching the UFC is beyond my realm. I have no idea what these people are watching.

But hey, that's their right. If they're not into it, I'm not going to put them in a gogoplata to make them understand. I just don't get it.

So with the 20th Anniversary approaching and a great card about to take place Saturday night I'll be driving to South Jersey to that same friend's house to have some beer, smoke a cigar, eat some pizza, and watch some fights. Congrats, UFC and thanks.

BREAKDOWN

Johny Hendricks wants to knock out Georges St-Pierre. You don't say? Well, he's going to have to in order to get the belt on Saturday.

It seems every GSP fight is surrounded by the strength of his opponent. What the opponent brings to the table and can do to GSP. The spotlight is on the Champ, but when it comes to the storyline, it's about how GSP's opponent exposes certain risks in GSP's game, thus alluding to a close fight or that shocking potential upset. Kind of like when the Batman movies were always about the villain and never about, you know, Batman. "Hey guys, we got Schwarzenegger to be Dr. Freeze!"

The stance with Hendricks is easy. He might be the hardest pound for pound puncher the UFC has. Regardless of weight class, you don't see people get their consiousness clicked off quite as easily has Hendricks has been able to do in his recent fights. This is one-punch knock out power. No follow up ground and pound, no person that got hit attempting to defend himself. This is punch and goodnight.

Hendricks' power along with his elite wresting is certainly a threat. At this point he's probably better as an all around MMA artist than Josh Koscheck and even Matt Hughes in GSP and Hughes' third fight. I must admit, I wasn't a believer at all in Hendricks until his Carlos Condit fight. He was tenacious, closed ground, and made things difficult for Condit the entire fight. Hendricks ability to continually move forward and threaten his opponents is a unique skill for a UFC fighter, especially once you begin taking on elite competition.

Martin Kampmann and Jon Fitch serve as good highlight reel fodder, but let's be honest with those two fighters. Kampmann has made his livelihood getting clocked and either rebounding or not to win/lose a fight and Fitch just lost to Josh Berkmann. Neither were equipped with the proper tools to defend against Hendricks' assault while standing. GSP has great striking defense, and it doesn't translate to an easy target for Hendricks and his left hook.

We know the wrestling is there for Hendricks, but we also know GSP has some of the best MMA wrestling in the UFC. He's done well against every fighter, including collegiate champs like Koscheck. It is worth noting though that GSP did have to work harder for those take downs the second time against Koscheck.

Hendricks won't eliminate GSP's wrestling, but he will be able to neutralize it greatly. For that reason, I'm expecting this to be much more of a stand up battle early on. Hendricks will look to pressure and challenge GSP, and GSP will look to utilize his jab and leg kicks to attempt to keep Hendricks at bay.

Hendricks' dogged approach and seemingly reckless ability to keep moving forward does present a challenge for GSP, but GSP also has a devastating jab to work with a 7 inch reach advantage against the stocky Hendricks. Hendricks may want to come forward and be aggressive, but GSP has the physical capabilities to make it hard for Hendricks to get near GSP without incurring a lot of damage. Not to go back to Koscheck again, but that fight was a mighty struggle for Kos once GSP popped his orbital bone. This is something Hendricks cannot take lightly.

Furthermore, in regards to GSP's offensive attack, I expect him to be able to maintain distance, force Hendricks to be highly active and be able to stay away from sustaining major damage. The main thing GSP has to keep in mind that when he looks to counter Hendricks, that Hendricks will keep moving forward. When GSP was rocked by Carlos Condit, it was the result of Condit throwing a two punch combo he had probably thrown a dozen times by that point in the fight, however the time he caught GSP, he finished off that two punch combo with a head kick. GSP had expected the same combo, dropped his hands, and got caught. Hendricks will throw multiple punch combinations and won't stop at one or two, but use his power to force his way inside by throwing three or four punch combos to close the distance. This is something GSP has to be cautious of and not be too aggressive in his counter striking.

For GSP to win, I expect him to be highly elusive from Hendricks and utilize his great jab and leg kicks to attempt to quickly tire the #1 contender.

Speaking of that jab, I had an idea yesterday while I was reading up on coverage of the fight. GSP seems to be keeping back a "secret" that he is looking to show off tonight. Speculation has been that this is a possible retirement, rekindling a super fight, or movies or whatever. People have also positioned this secret to happen post-fight, but I think GSP's surprise is a strategy he will utilize against Hendricks to catch him off guard. I think he's going to come out fighting southpaw style. Call it the reverse Rocky II strategy.

Think about it. GSP's striking is dynamic, but when he does fight orthodox, he doesn't typically fight in a standard muay thai stance, which is more upright and tall in order to better utilize leg kicks and avoid incoming strikes. His stance is based in his karate background with some wrestling modifications. This leaves his base wide, but also keeps his head right in the pocket - even leaning forward a bit. He's been clipped multiple times in the nose and forehead against BJ Penn and Koscheck and Condit as a result.

Standing in a southpaw stance keeps him in a better defensive stance against Hendricks' left hand and will certainly disorient a fighter that is expecting to fight an orthodox fighter. In boxing particularly, where the jab is so highly utilized, many trainers have suggested moving to a southpaw stance because if you're throwing your jab, why wouldn't you use your stronger limb to deliver those blows? I'm sure GSP's jab with his right hand doesn't lose any mustard when he throws it. Even during the weigh-ins yesterday, did GSP give away his secret? He started orthodox then jump switched to his southpaw stance with a smile on his face. Granted GSP usually lines up this way for face offs, but the jump switch struck me as interesting.

GSP lined up in his southpaw stance last night.

Wouldn't this be such a GSP thing to do? He always unveils a new trick. Something he's practiced thousands of time at Tri Star. Away from cameras rolling or reporters reporting.

I think GSP looks extremely focused or even obsess with this fight. In interviews, he doesn't look stoic or frustrated like he did leading up in his last couple of fights, he looks energized. I think Hendricks will struggle to get a hold of GSP in the ring and will incur a lot of damage trying to get to him. As the fight wears on, Hendricks will move a bit slower. If he tries to shoot in and take down GSP early, then you know he's in trouble.

GSP will take his normal calculated approach, but Hendricks will put up a fight and put himself in harms way more than previous challengers. GSP may not have knock out power, but his strikes are damaging. GSP will never move away from his takedowns because it's an important part of his striking game and keeping his opponents guessing, but I don't think he'll lean heavily on the takedowns until the third round. As Hendricks tires, he will expose that and utilize his MMA wrestling and jiu jitsu.

GSP wants a finish and fans have been waiting for a virtuoso performance, and I think accomplishes both tonight. GSP by rear naked choke in the 4th round.