Why Georgia Covers

The Cornhuskers haven’t been able to be trusted outside Lincoln, Nebraska. They are just 1-5 against the spread in games played away from home this season and allowed averages of 38.0 points and 442.0 yards in these contests. They were completely embarrassed in two of these games.

Nebraska lost 63-38 at Ohio State Oct. 6 while giving up 501 yards of offense. It also fell 70-31 to Wisconsin on a neutral field Dec. 1 in the Big Ten Championship game, giving up 640 yards of offense in the contest. I think it’s safe to say Georgia deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence with these two teams, which means Nebraska could be in for another beating.

The Bulldogs were a much better investment when playing outside Athens, Georgia. In fact, they were 4-2 against the spread when playing away from home this season. They won outright over Florida as an underdog on a neutral field Oct. 27. They also covered the number on a neutral field against Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia gave the defending national champs all they wanted and more.

Not only was Georgia the better investment away from home, it was also the better investment down the stretch. It has covered the number in five of its last six games while Nebraska failed to cover the spread in each of its last two. The Huskers are just 3-5-1 against the spread in their last nine games.

Why Nebraska Covers

It may be tough for Georgia to get up for this game. It had its sights set on the BCS national championship game and a loss in the SEC title contest knocked it clear out of the BCS bowl picture.

Nebraska had its sights set on the Rose Bowl, but it shouldn’t have any trouble getting up for this game. The Cornhuskers will want to erase the sour taste left by their Big Ten Championship game embarrassment so they can head into next season with some momentum.

Georgia is a good defensive team, but it has been vulnerable against the run. In fact, it ranks 81st in the nation against the run with 178.2 yards allowed per contest. This bodes well for Nebraska, which is one of the top rushing teams in the country. The Huskers rank eighth in the land with 254.5 rushing yards per game.

The Bulldogs have allowed each of their last three opponents to rush for more than 300 yards. Even Georgia Southern averaged 5.2 yards per carry while rushing for 302 yards against the Dawgs. Their inability to stop the run cost them a chance to play for a national championship as they allowed Alabama to run for 350 yards while averaging 6.9 yards per carry.

It is significant that Georgia enters this game off of loss considering it is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five games following defeat.

I have picked Georgia to win this game. You can check out the rest of my bowl predictions here.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why USC Covers

USC entered the season with national title aspirations after finishing their 2011 campaign at 10-2. The Trojans fell well short of their goals, but I still expect them to show up here.

Because of NCAA sanctions, USC hasn’t been able to play in a bowl game the past two years. It should relish the opportunity to show the country it is a much better team than its record indicates.

Quarterback Matt Barkley, who turned down the NFL to return for his senior season, should really welcome the opportunity, especially since a shoulder injury kept him from playing against top-ranked Notre Dame on senior day.

Barkley entered the season as one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy and was expected by many experts to be the first quarterback taken in the upcoming NFL Draft. He didn’t have the kind of season he had hoped for, and neither did USC, and that should drive him as he prepares for this game.

While Barkley was capable of more, there are still tons of FBS signal callers that would take his numbers. He completed 63.6 percent of his throws for 3,273 yards with 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He’ll have an opportunity to post some big numbers against a Georgia Tech defense that ranks 69th in the country against the pass with 239.2 yards allowed per game.

The Georgia Tech pass defense was really exposed against good passing teams like Miami, Clemson and North Carolina and could be exposed again here.

The Trojans are 4-0 against the spread in their last four bowl games while the Yellow Jackets are 0-5 against the spread in their last five bowl games.

Why Georgia Tech Covers

Because of the lofty expectations USC carried into the season, it has been overvalued by oddsmakers from the start. As a result, it covered the number in only three of 12 games. It may be asking too much of the Trojans to win this one by more than 10 points considering they have won by more than 10 points just twice in their last eight games and have lost four of their last five contests.

While the USC offense was plenty good enough, the defense kept it from being an elite team. The Trojans rank just 65th in the nation in total defense with 396.1 yards allowed per game. This unit could have a tough time slowing down a Georgia Tech offense that ranks 32nd in total offense with 446.6 yards per game and 35th in scoring with 34.5 points per game.

The Yellow Jackets do the majority of their damage on the ground. In fact, they rank fourth in the country in rushing offense with 312.5 yards per game. This ground attack could prove to be too much for USC to handle. After all, the Trojans allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for more than 170 yards and lost each of those games.

I have picked USC as the straight up winner of this game. Be sure to check out the rest of my bowl predictions.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why Vanderbilt Covers

It is hard to ignore the type of investment Vanderbilt has been. The Commodores enter the postseason riding a six-game winning streak. These six wins came by an average of 24.0 points. Vandy has covered the number in each of its last five games and is 8-4 against the spread in all games this season.

The Commodores, who hail from Nashville, should benefit from playing this one in their own backyard. It won’t be played at Vanderbilt Stadium, but the ‘Dores have been an outstanding investment when playing away from home. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last four games outside Vanderbilt Stadium. They won these by an average of 19.8 points.

NC State hasn’t fared as well when stepping away from the comforts of its home stadium. The Wolfpack are 2-4 straight up and 1-4-1 against the spread outside Raleigh this season.

Vanderbilt is the superior defensive team. The Commodores rank 15th in the nation in scoring defense with 18.2 points allowed per game while the Wolfpack rank 45th with 24.6 points allowed per game. Vandy ranks 17th in total defense with 326.4 yards allowed per contest while NC State ranks 81st with 419.7 yards allowed per game.

These two schools faced off against two like opponents this season, and Vanderbilt was more impressive in both games. Both schools handled Wake Forest, but the Commodores beat the Demon Deacons by a few more points and racked up a few more yards than NC State did.

Also, Vanderbilt crushed Tennessee 41-18 while NC State lost to the Volunteers 35-21.

These results of these head-to-head matchups suggest Vanderbilt is the better team.

Why NC State Covers

The Commodores don’t really have an impressive win on their schedule. A 27-26 win at Ole Miss (6-6) is Vanderbilt’s best win and it pales in comparison with NC State’s best win.

The Wolfpack erased a 16-0 deficit in a 17-16 victory over Florida State (No. 12, 11-2), proving they could can back against an elite team. That victory was impressive to say the least considering the Seminoles are one of the very best defensive teams in the nation. Clearly no lead will be safe for Vanderbilt in this game, especially since it leaves plenty to be desired on offense.

NC State ranks 51st in the nation in total offense with 420.9 yards per game while Vanderbilt ranks just 69th with 392.6 yards per game.

There are also a number of solid trends in support of NC State. The Wolfpack are an impressive 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games versus teams that have a winning record. They are also a solid 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven neutral site contests. It is also worth noting that they are on a 4-0-1 against the spread run in bowl games.

I have picked Vanderbilt to win this game. You can view the rest of my bowl predictions by following the link.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why Tulsa Covers

Tulsa won’t be lacking any motivation as it tries to pay Iowa State back for a 38-23 loss in the season opener for both teams. That game was in Ames, IA. The Golden Hurricane will have a much better chance at revenge with this one being played on a neutral field.

Tulsa is the far more explosive team. It ranks 25th in the nation in total offense with 461.6 yards per game while Iowa State ranks 90th with 372.2 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane also rank 32nd in scoring with 35.0 points per game while the Cyclones rank 84th with 25.2 points per contest.

Tulsa’s offense should find success moving the football against an Iowa State stop unit that ranks 99th in total defense with 444.8 yards allowed per game. The Cyclones showed vulnerability to both the run and pass this season, giving up 165.2 yards per game on the ground and 279.7 yards per game through the air.

It is significant that Tulsa boasts the nation’s 11th-best rushing attack (241.1 yards per game) considering Iowa State is on a 4-13 against the spread slide in road/neutral field contests versus excellent rushing teams that average 230.0 yards or more per game.

It also significant that Iowa State has allowed its opponents to complete 61.3 percent of their passes this season. That’s because Tulsa is on a 7-0 against the spread run in road/neutral site games versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 58.0 percent or higher.

In addition, Iowa State is on an 11-25 against the spread slide when playing away from home against a top-level team with a winning percentage greater than 75.0 percent.

Why Iowa State Covers

The Cyclones have already defeated Tulsa once this season, and it wasn’t even close. As a 1.5-point home underdog, Iowa State won by double digits while outgaining Tulsa 441-358.

Tulsa has 10 wins, but playing in Conference USA is not the same as playing in the Big 12. Iowa State’s wins over TCU and Baylor are arguably more impressive than any of Tulsa’s wins.

Baylor leads the nation in total offense with 578.8 yards per game and ranks a more than respectable fifth in scoring with 44.1 yards per game. It also handed Kansas State its only loss.

TCU has wins over Baylor, West Virginia and Texas so it is clearly no slouch.

It doesn’t say a lot for Tulsa that it only managed 15 points in a loss to Arkansas (4-8), which ranks 83rd in scoring defense with over 30 points allowed per game. So with the loss to Iowa State, the Golden Hurricane were 0-2 in games against teams from BCS conferences this season.

The Golden Hurricane are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against non-conference foes and 5-15-1 against the number in their last 21 games against Big 12 Conference opponents.

I have picked Tulsa to win this game. Check out the rest of my bowl predictions by clicking on the link.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why LSU Covers

LSU only has two losses this season and both of those were one-possession games against Florida and Alabama – two of the top teams in the country.

Florida (11-1) is ranked third and will be playing Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama (12-1) is ranked second and will be taking on Notre Dame in the BCS national championship game.

The LSU Tigers got the job done with defense this season. They enter the bowl season ranked eighth in the country in total defense with 297.1 yards allowed per game and 11th in scoring defense with 16.9 points allowed per game. The Clemson defense isn’t nearly as stingy.

Clemson ranks 76th in the nation in total defense with 411.2 yards allowed per game. It ranks 47th in scoring defense with 24.9 points allowed per contest.

LSU and Clemson faced two like opponents – South Carolina and Auburn. LSU went 2-0 in those games while Clemson went 1-1. Both teams defeated Auburn, but LSU defeated South Carolina 23-21 while Clemson lost to the Gamecocks 27-17.

LSU’s defense was the difference against South Carolina as it held the Gamecocks to only 211 yards of offense. Clemson, on the other hand, gave up 444 yards in its matchup.

LSU has been the better bowl bet in recent years as it is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven bowl games. Clemson is just 1-6 against the number in its last seven bowl appearances.

Why Clemson Covers

Clemson may not be getting the respect it deserves here considering how explosive it is offensively. It enters the bowl season ranked sixth in the nation in scoring with 42.3 points per game while LSU ranks 56th with 30.2 points per game. Clemson also ranks ninth in total offense with 518.3 yards per game while LSU ranks 80th with 387.2 yards per contest.

The Clemson Tigers showed they can put up big numbers against a good defense. They scored 37 points and racked up 426 yards on a Florida State stop unit that is even better than the one they’ll see in this game. The Seminoles rank second in total defense with 253.4 yards allowed per game and seventh in scoring defense with 15.1 points allowed per game.

Florida State won that game, but that’s because it also boasts a capable offense. The LSU offense isn’t even in the same category.

Clemson has been the better investment this season. It is 8-4 against the spread in all games and enters this contest on a 7-2 against the spread run. LSU is just 5-7 against the number this season and has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games.

Clemson has been an outstanding investment when catching more than a field goal. In fact, it is on a 26-12 against the spread run as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points. It has lost these games on average but only by an average of 2.6 points.

I have picked Clemson to win this game. Be sure to check out the rest of my bowl predictions on this page.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why Arizona State Covers

The Sun Devils are the more complete team on both sides of the football.

Arizona State finished the regular season ranked 21st in the nation in scoring with 36.4 points per game while Navy finished 86th with 24.8 points per game. The Sun Devils rank 31st in total offense with 449.2 yards per contest while the Midshipmen rank 79th with 387.7 yards per game.

The Arizona State stop unit gave up more points per game than Navy on average (24.0 compared to 22.7), but it allowed significantly less yardage. The Sun Devils rank 26th in the country in total defense with 350.8 yards allowed per game while the Midshipmen rank 57th with 388.9 yards allowed per contest.

Navy will have a tough time game planning and stopping Arizona State’s offensive attack because the Sun Devils can beat teams with the run or pass.

Quarterback Taylor Kelly should find success against a Navy defense that allowed 705 passing yards in two games before facing run-heavy Army in the regular-season finale.

Kelly was one of the top passers in the Pac-12. He completed 65.7 percent of his throws for 2,772 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Kelly is also one of four Sun Devils with at least 400 yards rushing.

Navy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games and is just 4-8 against the spread in all games this season.

Why Navy Covers

This is a lot of points for a ball-control offense like Navy to be catching.

The Midshipmen rank sixth in the nation in rushing offense with 276.4 yards per game. They should be able to find success on the ground against an Arizona State defense that was at its weakest against the run. The Sun Devils rank 76th in the country in run defense with 172.0 yards allowed per game and allowed four of their final six opponents to rush for more than 200 yards.

Navy has three players with more than 600 yards rushing. One of these players is quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who has 18 total touchdowns.

Reynolds doesn’t pass often, but he is pretty effective when he does. He completed nearly 58 percent of his throws for 884 yards with eight touchdowns and an interception this season.

Navy has been a tremendous investment in the underdog role for a long time now. In fact, it is 81-50 against the spread when catching points over the last two decades.

The Midshipmen have also been a nice investment when playing away from home. They are on a 50-25 against the spread run in road/neutral field contests in the second half of the season. They are also on a 68-33 against the spread run in road/neutral site games against non-conference opponents.

Arizona State hasn’t been a good bowl bet. It is 0-4 against the spread in its last four bowl games. You might recall that is was blown out by Boise State in last season’s bowl contest.

I have picked Arizona State to win this game.  Check out the rest of my bowl predictions by following this link.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why TCU Covers

The Horned Frogs showed well in their season finale but ended up losing 24-17 to Oklahoma as a 6.5-point underdog. That loss shouldn’t concern TCU backers heading into this contest as Gary Patterson’s teams have had a way of bouncing back strong.

TCU is an impressive 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games following a straight up loss and 20-6 against the spread in its last 26 games following a game in which it did not cover the number.

The Spartans became bowl eligible with a 26-10 win and cover at Minnesota in their season finale but are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a straight up win. They are also 1-5 against the number in their last six contests versus Big 12 Conference opponents.

TCU has been a tremendous investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. In fact, the Horned Frogs are 14-5 against the spread under coach Patterson in games when the line is +3 to -3. They have won these games by an average score of 27.7 to 18.1.

TCU is no doubt the superior offensive team. It ranks 62nd in the nation in scoring with 29.3 points per game while Michigan State ranks 109th with 20.2 points per game. The Horned Frogs also rank 64th in total offense with 397.0 yards per contest while the Spartans rank 91st with 370.3 yards per game.

The offensive side of the football has held Michigan State back all season. The Spartans figure to have a tough time getting much of anything against a TCU stop unit that led the Big 12 and ranked 18th nationally in total defense with 332.0 yards allowed per game.

The Horned Frogs showed some some susceptibility to the pass but likely won’t be tested through the air by Michigan State junior Andrew Maxwell, who completed a Big Ten-worst 52.9 percent of his passes.

Why Michigan State Covers

The Spartans showed what they are capable of with wins over Boise state and Rose Bowl-bound Wisconsin. They easily could have won more than six games considering five of their losses came by four points or less.

Top-ranked Notre Dame is the only team to beat the Spartans by more than four points this season. Michigan State played Ohio State and Michigan to one and two-point games, respectively.

The Spartans were in just about every game this season because of a stellar stop unit that finished the regular season ranks fourth in the country with 273.2 yards allowed per game. They finished 10th in scoring defense with 16.3 points allowed per contest.

Michigan State is an impressive 8-1 against the spread in road/neutral site games when facing a team that has a winning record over the last two seasons. It has won these games by an average score of 22.8 to 19.6.

It is also worth noting that TCU is 0-7 against the spread in road/neutral field contests against non-conference opponents over the last three seasons.

I have picked Michigan State to win this game.  You can see the rest of my bowl predictions by clicking here.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Reasons why Washington should cover:

If RGIII doesn’t play it might be a little more difficult for the Redskins to cover as the Browns have been very good lately. Kirk Cousins showed last week that he can handle being under center in the NFL, but he isn’t mobile like RGIII and will make the game plan easier for a pretty good Browns defense. We will find out closer to the weekend if Griffin will be able to go or not.

Washington is ranked 1st on the ground in the NFL right now averaging 167.5 yards/game, but their ranked 21st in the NFL through the air averaging 218.9 yards/game. Alfred Morris has been a big surprise in the NFL this season. He has 253 carries for 1228 yards and 7 touchdowns. RGIII has ran the ball 112 times for 748 yards and 6 touchdowns while throwing for 2906 yards completing 223 of 351 attempts for 18 touchdowns. Santana Moss has been the go to guy with 32 receptions for 468 yards and 7 touchdowns. Leonard Hankerson has been good himself though with 34 catches for 465 yards but just 1 touchdown.

This defense has been great against the run allowing just 98.8 yards/game which ranks 7th in the NFL. Against the pass is a different story, as they rank 31st allowing 289.3 yards/game. The offense is averaging 26.4 points/game while the defense is allowing 20.9 points/game.

If RGIII plays, he is going to have to have success on the ground as well as through the air, but the defense is going to have to defend Weeden better than they have anyone all year. If Cousins is the guy, he is going to have to have a lot of success through the air and all the parts are there for him to do that.

Trends: The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straigh up win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Reasons why Cleveland should cover:

Trent Richardson has been the bright spot for this Browns team this season. He has ran the ball 247 times for 869 yards and 9 touchdowns. Josh Gordon has been the big surprise at wide out with 42 receptions for 732 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has been the Browns deep threat this season as he is averaging 17 yards/catch.

Cleveland’s offense is ranked in the back half in the NFL but is still winning. Through the air, the Browns rank 20th averaging 221.4 yards/ game and rank 24th on the ground averaging just 100.5 yards/game. Brandon Weeden has thrown the ball 463 times, completed 264 for 3037 yards and just 13 touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the ball their ranked middle of the road. Against the pass their ranked 21st in the NFL giving up 242.7 yards/game. On the ground their allowing 120.5 yards/game which ranks 18th. Their offense is averaging 19.9 points/game while allowing 25.3 points/game.

Trends: The Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. Their also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Notes: If RGIII plays, the Browns are going to have their hands full but if its Cousins, they have a better shot at covering or winning this game. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden are both going to have to have success to give this team a chance.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why Air Force Covers

Air Force appeared fatigued at times down the stretch when it dropped three of its final four regular-season contests. The fatigue is understood considering the Falcons played games in 10 consecutive weeks.

Having a month off should really help this team. After all, extra time off has typically helped the Falcons in the past. Consider that Air Force is on a 16-6 against the spread run in road/neutral field games when playing with two weeks or rest or more. It has won these contests by an average score of 29.7 to 26.2.

Led by Cody Getz, the Falcons boast one of the top rushing attacks in the country. They rank second in rushing offense with 329.2 yards per game. Getz rushed for 1,213 yards and nine touchdowns and became the first player in school history with three 200-yard rushing games in a season. He could make it four as he goes up against a Rice run defense that ranks 92nd in the nation with 192.8 yards allowed per game.

Air Force has won each of its last four meetings against Rice while averaging 313.0 yards on the ground.

Why Rice Covers

While Air Force limps in with losses in three of its last four games, Rice enters this contest with tons of confidence and momentum.

The Owls won each of their last four games to become bowl eligible, but they are no Cinderella story. Three of their losses came by four points or fewer and one of those was against Conference USA Champion Tulsa.

While the Air Force running game gets plenty of attention, and deservedly so, it could be the Rice running game that has the upper hand in this one. Led by senior running back Charles Ross, the Owls rank 29th in the country in rushing offense with 201.2 yards per game.

Ross and company could be poised for a big day on the ground against an Air Force run defense that ranks 101st in the nation with 198.0 yards allowed per game.

Rice has proven it can beat teams through the air as well. Led by Junior quarterback Taylor McHargue, the Owls average a respectable 219.8 passing yards per game. McHargue starred down the stretch by completing 64 of 98 passes for 843 yards with three touchdowns and one interception during Rice’s season-ending four-game winning streak.

This balanced offensive attack helped the Owls, who finished with 381 points and 5,053 yards of total offense, go down as the second-best offensive team in school history. Only the 2008 team that went 10-3 was more productive.

It has been wise to side with Rice when oddsmakers are expecting a close game. Consider that the Owls are 12-2 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3 under coach David Bailiff. They are a perfect 6-0 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons and have won these games by an average score of 36.4 to 27.3.

I have picked Rice to win this game. You can check out this page to see the rest of my college bowl predictions. Also, check out who Jack Jones, Carolina Sports and Brandon Lee have picked to win the Armed Forces Bowl.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks

Why Oregon State Covers

It has been a remarkable season for Oregon State, which has won six more games that it did a year ago. The six-game improvement is tied for the largest turnaround in the FBS.

The Beavers should be very excited about this opportunity considering they haven’t been bowling since 2009. They should also be very prepared considering head coach Mike Riley owns a 5-1 record in bowl games.

Oregon State figures to be a tough matchup for the Longhorns, who have struggled to find consistency on the defensive side of the football. Texas ranks just 77th in the nation in total defense with 412.2 yards allowed per game. It also ranks 74th in scoring defense with 29.4 points allowed per game.

An Oregon State offense that ranks 34th in total offense with 442.7 yards per game and 38th in scoring with 33.0 points per game will be tough for Texas to stop. History backs up this claim.

Consider that Texas is just 5-15 against the spread over the last three seasons versus good offensive teams that average 31.0 points or more per game. The Longhorns have lost in this situation by an average score of 33.4 to 25.2.

The Beavers have been a tremendous investment in games oddsmakers expect to go right down to the wire. In fact, they are 9-1 against the spread the last three seasons in games when the line is +3 to -3. They have won by an average score of 34.6 to 22.7 in these games.

Why Texas Covers

The Longhorns had their sights set higher than the Alamo Bowl but should be excited to play a game so close to home in front of a lot of fans.

Texas won its previous appearance in the Alamo Bowl, handing Iowa a 26-24 defeat in 2006. It is 9-4 in all bowl games under coach Mack Brown.

The Texas defense wasn’t where it needed to be to win the Big 12, but it showed positive signs down the stretch by holding its last three opponents to an average of 309.3 yards. The defense should continue to make strides during the month-long preparation time.

Oregon State is a quality offensive team, but it is very one-dimensional. It gets almost all of its yards through the air. Its pass-heavy scheme could be a detriment against a Texas defense that has been at its best against the pass. The Longhorns rank a respectable 39th in the country in pass defense with 213.5 yards allowed per game and have limited their last three opponents to an average of 133.0 yards through the air.

Texas figures to be tougher for Oregon State to prepare for since the Longhorns have a balanced offensive scheme. They rank 37th in the country in total offense with 441.0 yards per game, 261.6 of those coming through the air and 179.4 of those coming on the ground. The Longhorns also rank a more than respectable 24th in scoring with 36.1 points per game.

I have picked Oregon State to win this game. You can see the rest of my bowl predictions by viewing this page. You might also like to know who Jack Jones and Brandon Lee have selected to win the Alamo Bowl.

Originially posted at Locksmith Sports Picks