London Regional Press Office

USA MId-Term elections and outcomes for the rest of the world

2026-10-14T12:15:11.544+01:00

USA Mid-Term Elections are not just fundamental for the USA, but for the entire world.

There was never before a time so crucial in terms of the consequences of a set of elections in one particular country. November 8th 2026 is the date when the totality of the seats in the House of Representatives and one third of the seats in the Senate will be up for election. Even before the elections ever takes place, there are already consequences.

A deal between the USA and the Russian Federation regarding diesel exports from Russian Federation to USA is basically about lowering the price of diesel in the USA as USA customers are increasingly bothered by rising oil and gas prices created by two main conflicts: Ukraine and the Gulf War against Iran.

Angry customers would not be willing to support a Republican Party headed by President Trump. But this is also about mixed messages. Not all Americans see the actions of President Trump as wise when it comes to Ukraine, when it comes to an unprovoked war against Iran and when it comes to many other issues. Many commentators tells us that the United States of America is a very polarized, divided country at many levels. "Making America Great" has been interpreted as great for some and bad for others.

Relationships with countries that appeared to be particularly close to the USA have suffered a great deal and the bond of trust has been broken. Perhaps the EU and NATO countries are not very happy with the way United States of America is conducting itself. Tariffs, embargoes, threats, lecturing, and conflicting international agendas do not help. What will be the most important deal breaker? What will be the major concerns of the American electorate?

While we await the outcome of these elections that will determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, we look at the potential consequences for the executive branch. Will President Trump have a majority in the Senate and in the House of Representatives or will he be bound to agree with Congress on one policy at a time if the Republican Party loses one or the two houses? How will the outcome of these elections affect American Foreign Policy? Democrats would only need to win 3 more seats in the Senate to take control of the Senate. If President Trump becomes a de-facto Lame Duck President, will he be more or less beligerant?

Many people seem to think that once President Trump comes to the end of his second period as President, a Republican successor will win the next Presidential Elections, but then there is huge question mark about who will be the next Presidential Candidate. Can we safely assume who will be the next Presidential Candidate? Can we safely assume that whoever it is will be the next American President? With this in mind, there are far too many uncertainties regarding the role of the USA after November 2026 and this for starters.

In the meantime, new elections in other countries linked to the USA are on the horizon and such elections could change the dynamics of international relations. Will the world before President Trump and after President Trump be the same or similar? When we thought that COVID had dramatic consequences, here came another series of events that have destabilized the world even more.

International Law and Geopolitical realities: Is there International Law?

2026-10-13T18:45:02.937+01:00

International Law and Geopolitical realities: Is there International Law?

When Justice is closely linked to particular agendas that have little to do with Justice, we get very much the law of the jungle in which whoever can do will do as he or she sees fit. What we have seen in recent years has little to do with any kind of justice. In fact, it is the recognition that Might is Right.

When we witness the implementation of Might is Right, then we have to be preperred for a violent backlash. Not even the assumption of "My power comes directly from God" could save mighty from a catastrophic downfall. Charles I´s came to an end in Central London. The Frech Revolution brought down the French Monarchy. Ceaucescu and his wife did not last long after the events in Romania. And so has the fate of so many more powerful men been.

Today, MI5 talks about the sudden rise of the threats of terrorism. Well, there is a reason for that. Looking at what has been happening in the United Kingdom for decades, at the impunity in the implementation of ethnic cleansing by allowing hundreds of thousands to flock into the United Kingdom with total disregard, with total contempt, one can understand that somebody somewhere is going to be extremely angry and when anger goes beyond what is bearable then people will react.

Not talking about the issues, trying to brush things under the carpet, you will have to have a carpet big enough, large enough, to hide what is now common knowledge. The mess has become an everyday occurrence in peoples´lives. They no longer need to be told about it. They experience it themselves.

People see genocide. People see mass murder. People see violent crimes unpunished or even promoted. Geopolitical realities are now inextricably linked to national realities. Tolerance is no more. Mercy is no more. Humanity is no more.

Environmental Concerns and Energy: it is like dealing with two different worlds

2026-10-06T19:09:39.200+01:00

While most people agree that pure air and protected ecosystems and other aspects of looking after the environment are fundamentally important, perhaps few manage to understand the size of the challenges ahead and come up with totally unrealistic solutions.

Just one set of problems linked to diesel supplies and everything appears to come to a halt. While is diesel so fundamentally important? Transport comes to mind. Food production comes to mind. Energy production comes to mind. And diesel is not going to be replaced any time soon.

When European countries get together to talk about emergency diesel supplies, we know that diesel is not going to be substituted with nuclear energy, solar energy, hydroelectric energy, wind power and so forth to meet the needs that we have got right now and it might take decades before that could happen when and if we have got alternative sources of energy, powerful enough and reliable enough.

As if this was not enough, there are more than enough demographic and geographic challenges right in front of us, right now. The new Gulf War made clear that we need fertilisers to feed billions of peoples. Fertilizers do not come from alternative energy sources. They are chemical products made with oil. So talking about replacing fossiel fuels means talking about replacing fertilizers and fossil fuels are linked with many bi-products, including substances and equipment used in healthcare. The now humble aspirin plays a vital role to prevent strokes and heartattacks and aspirin comes from.... oil.

We need environmentalists to be much better informed about what we are dealing with and to stop being ideological. We need a lot more realism and pragmatism. Learn about numbers and uses. Learn about what is doable and what is not doable. Oversimplification can turn people off and is turning people. Can we collectively do better? Of course we can. And we collectively could do a lot better if we are aware of all the realities that we have to deal with. No ifs, not buts.

Will Britain go back into the EU? National and Geopolitical issues involved

2026-09-30T21:37:01.568+01:00

Will Britain go back into the EU without British veto?

At this point in time, a returning Britain could be in a much worse position than before. No veto, no rebate and the threat of majority vote to replace unanimity vote regarding major decisions.

The unassailable City of London will be forced to see Frankfurt as a threat. Fiscal discipline, very much as it happens when the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) was around could put Britain in a financial straightjacket. And what would happen to the Bank of England as an independent body?

We would go back to a system that prevented states from subsidizing companies. But there is a lot more going on.

There are fundamental issues to consider. Devolution, Good Friday Agreement, legislation that will limit the capacity of regional and national parliaments to issue legislation that could contravene measures and legislation adopted by the European Union.

And unavoidably, Britain would have to consider the independence of its Armed Forces and immigration policies.

The number and complexity of issues is so vast that it is difficult to even enumerate them in a very brief article.

The subject resurged when Andy Burnham stated that "Britain could go all the way". From a legal standpoint, would another Referendum be needed? The Labour Prime Minister could state that since the Labour Party has such big majority then Parliament will decide. North of the border in Scotland, the SNP has always been about rejoining EU. In Wales, will Plaid Cymru be against it? In England, Labour, Lib Dems and Green might be all for it.

This leaves parts of the Conservative Party, Reform and Restore against rejoining EU. UKIP, Brexit Party, then Reform and Restore and so forth, always stood on the fringes and rejoining EU would be a way to neutralize the likes of Reform and Restore. Without a Referendum, Reform, Restore and segments of the Conservative Party would have to rely on MPs.

Expected to be pro-Rejoin:

Labour 403, Liberal Democrat 71, Green Party 5, SNP 5, Plaid Cymru 4 = 488

Expected to be pro-Region:

We do not know how many of the 118 Conservatives will oppose pro-Rejoin. Reform 8, Restore 1

So an absolute massive majority pro-Rejoin. A vote pro-Rejoin could put an end to any hopes Reform, Restore and others might have to progress in British politics.

Misery is growing exponentially: Frustation, mental illness, violence, and isolation

2026-09-27T22:25:10.812+01:00

Misery is growing exponentially: Frustration, mental illness, violence and isolation

Are we happier and healthier? We usually associate misery with poverty and extreme poverty. But those in the wealthier brackets of society are also affected. Numbers of those dying because substabance overdose? Whether we are talking about Elvis Presley, Cristina Onassis, Peaches Geldof, Mathew Perry and many more, the fact reams that substance abuse is widespread among the reachest, among the poorests and everybody else in between.

If this was not enough, violence because of widespread criminal activity or war is also spreading. We can build as many prisons as we wish or can build, we can murder or bomb (another way of murdering) millions and this will not change. Death does not tell the difference. The wealthiest have to accept that their bodies will be rotting or being cremated.

There is a state of widespread madness that is out of control. As an economics teacher told us, never forget that all those numbers, percentages and equations are real people.

The killers and those killed will be eaten by worms and bacteria. The glories in the battlefield, the blood that waters the lands are just symptoms of a state of madness.

In general, we need a greater understanding of how changes at national level can affect us as individuals, so that consequences do not come as a surprise

2026-09-21T11:04:26.907+01:00

Friedrich Merz is the opposite of what Germany needs

At this point in time, many Germans would be asking how electoral results reflect what is happening in the country as a whole. Not since 1945 have the German peoples had to cope with so many changes with unpredictable consequences.

Both young and old are choosing to vote for Alternative für Deutschland. What does this mean? It means that both young Germans looking for work and old people who depend on pensions are reacting when confronted with the bad state of the German economy caused by various factors.

Cost of living has significantly increased leading to more of the younger generations being forced to live with their parents. A very unpopular Chancellor is becoming ever more unpopular. German voters do not trust a warmongering Friedrich Merz that reinforces memores of a not so distant past. But there is a lot than that. Thrift in Germany is a defining element of German character and temperament. The fact that Fiscal Laws were recently changed by the Bundestag to allow the government to spend more money does not make Germans happy and especially when the monies are not going to be spent in education, health, transport and infrastructure but sent abroad and given to a foreign government.

Every German citizen is mandated by Law to contract insurance to pay for healthcare. This means paying private companies to have access to healthcare. When the see hundreds of thousands of foreigners coming into the country, with no knowledge of German language, that lack the skills or the will to work, that have values and customers that contradict German values and German customs, to be financially supported by German citizens, German voters have indeed reasons to be unhappy. One state after another, with the exception of elections in Berlin that favour Die Linke, ideologically linked with the former DDR, has favoured Alternative für Deutschland and if the outcome of the election in Sachsen - Anhalt was bad for CDU, the outcome in Meckleburg-Vorpommern could not be worse. Alternative für Deutschland 38.8% and CDU 4.9% running the certain risk of being excluded from the State Parliament..

Despite the fact that Alternative für Deutschland has become the bigger political party, other political parties have managed to form a wall, by refusing to cooperate with Alternative für Deutschland. The question is for how long the said wall will last since resentment is growing.

It is plenly obvious that German citizens should be the fundamental priority. It should be plainly obvious that sacrificing fundamental needs by engaging in military adventures or wasting valuable resources to enrich foreign oligarchs that did not care about their fellow Ukrainians before is exactly the wrong kind of policy.

The British Pawnshop: This is no way to run the British economy

2026-09-19T18:40:31.860+01:00

The British Pawnshop: This is no way to run the British Economy

Quantitative Easing or QE became a buzzword when governments wanted to increase cashflows to keep the economy going. The Covid Pandemic was one of those periods. QE was not meant to be a permanent way of dealing with circulation but, I am afraid, it keeps going on. But there is another factor. At one point, the British government decided to recover public bonds by buying them back to reduce the wait of public debt. This should be the most normal thing to do. What happened now? Imagine buying something by paying 100 Pounds for it and soonafter selling it for 50 Pound. Selling bonds of public debt at discounted prices means selling bonds making losses. Why should the British government want to do that? Well, interest rates payed for bonds are rising and many investors are not so interested in buying public blonds without getting higher returns. So I guess that lowering prices of bonds is a way to incentivise investors to take bonds of public debt. But what does this mean for the Treasury and the Bank of England?

In a few days time, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will have to produce the Autumn Budget and he will be doing so at a time when variables are changing so fast that by the time the Autumn Budget is printed most of the calculations in it will have to be remade. I do not khow how much will the Government be able to keep to deal with emergency adjustments, but given the nature of the British budget there will have to be substantial amounts kept as reserves to deal with emergencies. In March 2025, Wes Streeting made statements confirming that Health was going to be substantially supported in the budget as one of the number one priorities. I do suppose that Wes Streeting, now in charge of Defense will be expecting important increments of the Defense Budget. Isn´t it that the now Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey went as far as resigning his post because the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves did not allocate enoughs funds for Defense? Some talking about increasing the amounts from Defense up to 3.5% of the national budget, or even up to 5% of the national budget.

Ed Davey, Liberal Democrat Leader, said that the Liberal Democrats are preparing themselves for a snap election. Before Andy Burnham become Prime Minister there was talk about a snap election as a way to give Andy Burnham a national mandate even at the expense of coming back to the House of Commons with a lesser number of Labour MPs. Why? Because given the measures that the Prime Minister will have to implement, having a big majority can be a liability and could lead to internal wrangglings. Imaging having to tell your own MPs that austerity policies that they so much hate will have to implemented.

Under Keir Starmer, the man that won a historical majority for the Labour Party, there was a series of upheavals. I lost count of the many times the Labour Cabinet had to re-reshuffled. Ultimately, the Prime Minister himself had to go and so he did by leading to a by-election to choose a new Member of Parliament. Labour avoid a leadership by getting Andy Burnham onboard when he won a by-election in Makerfield to be able to apply to be the Labour Party Leader and become Labour Prime Minister, something that he managed to do without any challengers. The Labour Party was desperate to show the country an image of unity. Unfortunately, that could happen only before the announcment and implementation of real policies, something that is bound to open wounds in the Labour Party.

So will Andy Burnham call a snap Parliamentary Election to cement his leadership even at the expense of having less MPs in the House of Commons? Many say that he will not take such a risk. Others says that if he has to confront the Trade Unions and party members with very unpopular policies, he will have to be stronger as a leader. Any rebellions, any upheavals, any confrontation with trade unions, could led him to face the same challenges his predecessor Keir Starmer had to face and that ultimately led to Keir Starmer´s political demise.

Some in the Labour Party have said that Andy Burnham is the Labour Party´s last opportunity to keep the hope of winning the next General Election. What they do not mention is how difficult it will be for a Labour Leader to please all segments of the Labour Party.

The approval of the so called Made in Europe legislation could prove to be very negative for the British Economy. Made in Europe is designed to counter Chinese competition that is creating massive job losses in the European Union. It is not meant to damage British interests, but it isnot meant to promote British interest either. The fight for markets is intensifying. War in Europe and in Middle East does not benefit Britain either. The volatility of energy prices is costing Britain dear. Everything will have to be taken into account when writing the new Autumn Budget.

All eyes on John Healey: Government advised to slow down or to halt sale of bonds of public debt

2026-09-17T10:04:35.578+01:00

UK Government advised to slow down or to halt sale of bonds of public debt

The latest reports indicate that economists have stated that to prevent an acceleration in terms of the growth of British public debt, selling less bonds of public debt or stopping sales altogether would be the safe thing to do.

This would leave the Chancellor of the Exchequer with two options: more taxes or budget cuts or both options at the same time.

This is a dangerous time for the British economy because as inflation rises, more resources will be needed. Every time inflation rises, salaries are devalued and the currency is naturally devalued. You can buy less and less with the monies that you have in your pocket or the monies that you are bound to receive. This can mean, once again, industrial action.

Whether the Chancellor of the Exchequer decides to slow down or to halt the sale of bonds of public debt, the fact remains that Britain needs money to pay for its budget. The news that the European Union could be about to implement legislation designated as Made in Europe to deal with Chinese increasing competition that could lead to the lost of more than 300,000 jobs across the European Union is not good news for Britain as this could restrict British investments in the European Union.

Things are not becoming any easier for branches of the public sector like the National Health Service that are asked to create redundancies to ease out the pressure on the budgets run by NHS Trusts. Local and regional authorities have been dealing with deficits in their public finances as asking for more financial support from the Treasury as a way not to raise local and regional taxes that could put families that are already under pressure due to rising taxes and rising inflation. The official rate of inflation that was 2.9% (0.9%) is now thought to be 3.1 per cent and could go as high as 4%. Why is this important? Because much of public debt is indexed - linked to inflation rates. So when inflation rates go up, public debt goes up.

Today, the Bank of England will have to decide if it keeps the present official interest rate. This can have a direct impact on how much the financial sector - especially the banking sector - can charge for loans and mortgages. Under pressure, asking prices for sale of properties are falling in an effort to find new buyers. As much of the British economy depends on the capacity of banks to lend and on the capacity of buyers to acquire loans and mortgages, there is financial uncertainty. Financial institutions borrow to lend to potential buyers. If at any point buyers cannot make payments, leading to defaults, then the full weight of having to pay back credits falls on the banks shoulders. Some years ago, the British government had to rescue the banking sector and used government reserves to that end. For the British government to be able to do the same, once again, there would be not enough reserves available.

The British government wants to invest more in Defense, but this means taking resources away from other areas of the public administration. With limited sources of income and facing the prospect of having to pay more to keep public services as they are, there is very little or no room to maneuver.

There is always the danger of increasing industrial unrest and rising unemployment that automatically increases pressure on the so called Welfare State that needs to support those who are unemployed. Already, about 60% of those aged between 18 and 25% have little chances of finding a job to pay the bills and a growing number depend on parental financial support.

All eyes on John Healey: As Chancellor of the Exchequer, he is the Gatekeeper

2026-09-10T21:01:43.347+01:00

John Healey is the Gatekeeper. All eyes now focused on the Chancellor of the Exchequer who has to decide who gets what

The honeymoon over, Labour must now focus on delivering what was promised. This is a time when national politics and geopolitics could not be more closely linked. The former Secretary for Defense that resigned when the now former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves did not deliver the monies that he needed to beef up Defense. Now, he has his hands on the public purse and resigning is not a viable option.

As always, the promise was 3% for Defense, but what is the timetable and how is it going to be achieved. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has stated that health and other vital public services will not have to suffer budget cuts and he was adamant about it. Words like Austerity, according to Labour thinkers, can only be found n the Conservative Lexicon.

Financial institutions ie Banking sector are already getting in touch with the economics team, afraid of taxes imposed on the banking sector. Lets remember than some years ago the Treasury had to intervene to save the financial sector, including the banking sector, from total destruction. Thanks to that intervention, the financial institutions that survived and did not go the way of Northern Rock, did somehow prospered. Now, it is the State´s time to survive more borrowing at higher interest rates, with less economic activity and rising unemployment. Even the Armed Forces that an inyection of cash should beef up are told to "limit training activities to what is absolutely essential because we need to save money". How is the now mythical 3% going to be spend, if it ever reached?

And there is the issue of the Welfare State. For a myriad of reasons, local and regional authorities have been forced to pay for uncontrolled migration that includes asylum seekers. The burden is pretty obvious with local and regional authorities dealing with people as if they were pingpong balls, simply because there are not enough resources. Because of immigration with migrants often put at the top of the list for accommodation, waiting lists get longer and longer and Britons complain about the fact that they are often unable to have access to social accommodation "because migrants and refugees are given priority".

There are not enough jobs, there is not enough accommodation, and public services are being squeezed, but due to budget shortages people are not able to work because there is not enough money to fill up vacancies. Even outsourced services are being cut off with contracts that are not renewed. For all the talk about apprenticeships, none other than the BBC had to tell apprentices that there would not be jobs at the end of the line. So you might be training for a job that will not exist when you finish your training. The buzzword when it comes to real jobs that pay real money is "layoffs". Companies are laying off workers to deal with balancesheets.

So the Chancellor of the Exchequer has to deal with the biggest balancesheets. October is just round the corner and this is the time when all will be revealed.

United Kingdom: bills keep piling up with prices that are rising almost on a monthly basis

2026-09-09T22:47:26.099+01:00

United Kingdom: bills keep piling up with prices that are rising almost on a monthly basis

For many people, the way rates of inflation are calculated is an absolute mystery that bears no relationship with the their cost of living. The cost of utilities and the cost of the shopping basket (itens that you need to buy or buy because you could not possible be without) is rising and often by 100%.

No sooner you are trying to digest the cost of recent increases you get another letter informing you about additional costs to be introduced next month. In my mind, this amounts to devaluation. You are getting less for your monies. Your pounds are worth less and less and less and there is end in sight.

Another issue that should have more and more people worried is the fact that house prices are dropping and for those who have mortgages and loans used to acquire the property that live this means the certainty of having to deal with negative equity - when the value of the assets is less than the financial commitments you signed for in order to acquire the said assets.

You could have a mortgage for 1,000,000 Pound when in fact your property value is now 700,000 Pound. Even if you sell your property you will still owe the lender the amount of 300,000 Pound. No property left. Just debts. Those who have been faced with negative equity can tell you that it is not a nice experience.

For you is a very bad experience. For the financial system it could be even more catastrophic. Northern Rock was bankrupted. Many of the big banks had to be rescued with taxpayers monies. When Gordon Brown made the decision to rescue the banks, he did it because the alternative was financial paralysis.

If peoples incomes go down because of additional taxation, rising cost of borrowing and inflation, it is to be expected that disposable income will go down dramatically thus affecting consumption. Less consumption, more unemployment and more support needed to keep the unemployed and those do not earn enough alive.

We have not seen the nex budget being prepared by the Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey. The Prime Minister says that increases in defense expenditure will not happen at the expense of welfare and of vital services. The cost of public debt is rising and the country is left with unsavoury alternatives - more borrowing, tax increases and budget cuts.

AfD: Young German voters prefer Alternative für Deutschland

2026-09-08T23:39:54.646+01:00

Alternative für Deutschland is the favourite political party for young Germans

Statistically, young German voters prefer Alternative für Deutschland and turnout was over 70% in elections in Anhalt-Saxony.

Despite being an institution in German Politics, the alliance CDU/CSU has been running out of steam. It all started with Angela Merkel that made two fundamental mistakes. One critical mistake was to get rid of nuclear power thus making Germany almost totally dependent on fossil fuel, much of which was imported and is still imported. Another mistake was a policy of open borders that threatens to destabilize Germany and has negatively affected other members countries of the European Union.

But, worst of all, the most recent mistake has been made by its present Chancellor Friedrich Merz that promote confrontational policies that push Germany towards war in Europe. Such policies will not make him the darling of those who suffered the consequences of two World Wars. The young will not vote for war and one of the fundamental weaknesses of the present Chancellor is that whatever he states as declared intention of the German State the fact remains is that he will struggle to persuade young Germans of military age to support his stances of military aggression.

Providing money and weapons, Germany is alread fighting an undeclared war. Friedrich Merz has gone as far as getting rid of all the financial safety mechanisms that prevent over´spending at a time when German manufacturing is struggling to compete with the rest of the world. A flag company like Volkswagen has already lost 100,000 workers and there are about 50,000 workers on the way out. Germany cannot compete either because of trade barriers or because of technological advances of competitor ie China.

The more Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his supporters seek to ban Alternative für Deutchland the more the few German voters that supported CDU/CSU will move away from CDU/CSU.

CDU/CSU is not even a shadow of its former self and CDU/CSU barely managed to form a coalition that given economic and financial circumstances will struggle to survive another German Federal Election.

Already under Angela Merkel, CDU/CSU representatives were working together with Alternative für Deutschland, something that led to threats issued by Angela Merkel against CDU/CSU members who cooperated with Alternative für Deutschland.

Althernative für Deutschland is de facto the party for Peace in Europe. No German soldiers in foreign wars has Alternative für Deutschland stated over and over again. Friedrich Merz was a political figure that inspired mistrust and hatred. His actions as German Chancellor have only confirmed what many, the vast majority who did not support him, already thought. He was only confirmed as Chancellor after a second round of voting in the German Parliament, having been rejected during a fird round of voting.

Many believe that Friedrich Merz, like Benjamin Netanyahu, is more than willing to send German young to their deaths in a war of aggression for the sole purpose of keeping himself in power.

Germany is not staying behind. Germany is keeping up. Why should Britain be the only one?

2026-09-06T18:16:31.882+01:00

Germany is not staying behind. Germany is keeping up. Why should Britain be the only one?

Argentinian President Javier Milei: The winds of change

2026-09-04T17:37:17.844+01:00

Argentina: The Winds of Change

President Javier Milei finds himself talking about the "Winds of Change" and winds there are many when it comes to the South Atlantic on the way to Antarctica.

What did not happen in 1982 under a Military Junta could happen under a democratically elected President. Britain was not in the best position in 1982, but Britain is in a much worse position in 2026 and we still have not seen the numbers that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, former Secretary for Defense John Healey, is going to provide. It will not be nice. Mr Healey might have even less monies for Defense than the monies he was offered by Rachel Reeves and the reason he resigned his post as Secretary for Defense. What is essential or not essential in terms of training is a debatable subject. Argentina just announced that it will be new military installations that will give Argentina better access to Falkland Islands, and Falkland Islands are not the only islands under British control in the South Atlantic. In 1982, Britain was not caught up with a conflict in Europe for which it is not well prepared. President Trump has been found laughing about British military power and he might not offer Britain any support should there be a conflict, once again, in the South Atlantic.

I would say that for Britain things are much worse than they ever were in 1982. Equipment that Britain had and that made the difference in a conflict that happened more than 40 years ago has not been updated nor replaced.

Argentina does not need military forces on mainland Argentina for internal puposes or as a precaution because of strained relationships with Chile at the time when the invasion happened. President Allende did support Margaret Thatcher and Chilean support in 1982 was for Britain a sine qua non. President Kast, shares President Milei´s ideology and so that President Trump that is visibly involved in developing American influence in Latin America.

So things have changed exponentially and not in a favourable way for Britain.

The USA, and not just those who support President Trump, have good reasons to support Argentina. As members of the American Administration stated very openly, Europe is no longer a priority. China is. So countries that are closer to the USA, where China has been playing an ever greater role, are also a priority. With Venezuela "under control", Panama controls the passage between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which is a crossing of fundamental strategic importance for the USA - a passage that was built by the USA.

So where is Britain in all this? What is happening with the geopolitical agenda? What is happening with trade? Britain has a limited presence in Antarctica, but so do other countries. Undoubtedly, British Islands in the South Atlantic are relevant as a gate to Antarctica. For Argentina, it is obviously a bonus. It is about asserting Argentinian influence. This is for Argentina a James Monroe Moment. Just imagine what it would mean for the Argentinian peoples and for President Milei himself. Imagine what it would mean to be seen as the Argentinian President that "recovered the South Atlantic Islands".

So we keep following developments. This could be the ultimate slap on the face of Britain. So President Trump is using it. "You did not help me with Iran. I would not help you in the South Atlantic."

In Brazil, President Lula da Silva is campaigning for a presidential election in which the son of the now former President Bolsonaro is standing, but with or without a Bolsonaro as Brazilian President, the winds of change are not blowing in favour of Britain.

UK Preparing for War? What is actually happening?

2026-09-04T12:47:12.357+01:00

Preparing for War?

Does it feel like a country looking to beef up its defense? I hope Conservatives could wake up and stop talking about wars that Britain is unfit to fight. Empty chit chat passing as serious analysis. Present and former MPs are making themselves look and sound like assholes.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/sep/04/british-army-halt-non-essential-training-exercises-save-money

Britain cannot even produce proper tanks and Britain created the tanks. I followed the whole thing including what happened when Ben Wallace was Secretary for Defense, talking about cutting manpower to create rapid response SAS like teams. British drone technology, the magic response, is already outdated.

While this is happening, Lithuania indicated that it is ready to attack Russian Federation and Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, make similar comments. Both Lithuania and Germany attacking Russian Federation not as NATO countries, on their own.

Obviously this can cause one of two things: 1) a widespread European War 2) the end of NATO when other NATO countries refuse to get involved. But there is a third possibility: USA might decide not to get involved as it goes against USA interests and say that it is nothing to do with NATO.

When NATO countries are making military alliances of their own, this is also a reason to be extremely concerned. Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia just signed a mutual defense pact. Israel and Muslim hating Modi from India have an ongoing arrangement as India provides crucial resources to Israel.

So, if Israel decides to go against Turkey, something that Benjamin Netanyahu has already spoken about, Israel would be actually going against Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Faraway from Europe, Middle East and Asia Minor, President Milei of Argentina, with American support is preparing to take over South Atlantic Islands. The story tells about fundamental differences between USA and Britain when it comes to geopolitics.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham: calming the markets....?

2026-09-03T00:24:21.114+01:00

The Guardian, the London newspaper talks about Prime Minister Andy Burnham trying to calm bond market, as more and more investors are getting rid of bonds of public debt. It must be said that it is not just Britain that might be losing its capacity to borrow billions of US Dollars (althougn bonds might be valued in Pounds) to paid a public debt that amounts to trillions US Dollars.

Any budget must be based on reliable data, but nowadays data has a habit of changing even before any budget is formulated. So by the time the Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey (former Secretary for Defense) rises in the House of Commons to deliver the so called Autumn Budget all numbers in it might be totally outdated. Without the capacity to borrow more then taxing more and budget cuts could be the only way left to adjust public expenditure. Both options are deeply unpopular because they both go for one word: Austerity.

For a Labour Prime Minister having to start by imposing new taxes and cutting budgets because there is no money to go around is not what was promised during the first short campaign for an election that never happened. When the amount of monies available is significantly reduced, the impact of increasing defense expenditure makes cuts in other areas of the public administration even more painful. As Paul Samuelson, the American Economist stated, it is butter or cannons. You cannot have them both in equal measure. Something has to go. Will it be welfare payments? Whatever the previous Prime Minister did that was considered to be done against Labour values will be nothing compared with the limitations the new Prime Minister will have to impose.

Suddenly, recent electoral successes in Makerfield and Manchester will feel like a pyhrric victory. The joy and celebratons might turn into a funeral. More taxes will certainly means less buying power in the pockets of already suffering taxpayers. Budget cuts will mean more unemployment. But in actual fact both measures can accelerate the rise of unemployment. If you raise taxes, you cut private investment and consumption. Taxes will be higher but the amount of monies collected will be reduced due to less economic activity. Keir Starmer´s exit from Parliament will help him distance himself from then nightmare that is coming and Andy Burnham´s time as Prime Minister could be cut short.

Right after Andy Burnham was appointed, there were rumours that he would go to the country, that he intended to have his own Parliamentary majority, even by losing many of the seats that Labour managed to win in 2024. Going to the country, having a General Election preceded by a whole bunch of bad news does not look, sound and feel like a good idea. Labour MPs that did not want Keir Starmer as Leader and Prime Minister made the choice to remain under Keir Starmer not to risk losing their seats.

When Andy Burnham threw his hat on the right they could have rocket the boat and go for internal elections in the Labour Party. Instead, they chose to have Andy Burnham appointed without any contest. The idea was pure and simple. No contest to challenge Andy Burnham would show the Labour Party as something that the Labour Party is not: a united Party. When the new budget is presented in the House of Commons, factional rivalries will reappear.

Having a majority in Parliament might look like a blessing, but having too many MPs might be inconvenient. A majority that cannot be controlled becomes a liability.

At a distance, Labour MPs that are no longer Cabinet Members could have been disappointed, hurt because they were no longer at the forefront of the Labour government. Now, many of them like Rachel Reeves might be congratulating themselves because they do not have to face the mess the new government will have to deal with. She was being forced to calculate and recalculate budgets before they were even presented in Parliament. Now the man who complained and even resigned as Secretary for Defense because he was not getting enough money for defense will have to face reality. Now, it is John Healey´s time to face the music.

Sue Gray did not last long as Chief of Staff under Keir Starmer. She said that she felt that she was being spied on, that her private conversations were being recorded and leaked to the mass media. Has the political environment inside the Labour government changed overnight? As pressure mounts, one can expect that internal tensions will rise. As the expression goes "keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer".

British Default: As things go, a British Default is becoming more likely by the day

2026-09-02T16:09:22.277+01:00

A British default is becoming more likely by the day. A country that owes trillions of US Dollars, pays billions on a monthly basis and has little to show for a real economy looks increasingly as a ship heading towards the rocks.

John Healey, former Secretary for Defense and now Chancellor of the Exchequer, has very little to be happy about and so do millons of Britons whose lives are turning into a nightmare. Prices that used to be relatively stable are now rising monthly or weekly.

By the time you finish doing your budget, you have to start all over again. If the Chancellor of the Exchequer has even less money to distribute then the risks of job losses and welfare cuts are all too obvious. If this comes together with loss of trust regarding the Pound then the ugly face of Devaluation is all too visible. It is also obvious that is the economy goes drastically downhill then investors trust will evaporate. Investors are already asking for higher and higher returns for public debt.

Reserves? What reserves? When Prime Minister Gordon Brown, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, was in charge then Britain had reserves to deal with the consecuences of an American financial upheaval. He could keep the banking system afloat, but there were many casualties. This time there are no reserves. The ship is going down and there are no lifeboats.

Ukraine is a laboratory to test new weaponry, but it is done with a huge human cost

2026-09-01T13:44:27.715+01:00

Ukraine has become a testing ground for new weapons, but it is done with a huge human cost

What was a country has become a huge testing ground for weapon makers to test their new arsenals. So I do understand why those interested in transforming Ukraine into a place to try new weapons are not interested in any kind of peace as peace will deprive weapon makers from the opportunity to see what their weapons can do for real on the battlefield.

I believe that those making money by making weapons could not care less about human lives as long as they keep making money. I also believe that many politicians and leaders mention peace because they feel that it makes them look good. In reality, they could not care less about peace.

Take everything EU leaders say with a pinch of salt. In private, they are rubbing their hands with glee thinking about profits. This is really the business of war. Nowadays, when other branches of economic activity are faltering, war is seen as an opportunity to money and for this reason so called leaders are more than willing to sacrifice entire generations on the battlefield. Europe is governed by butchers who could not care less about their own fellow citizens because they see ordinary people as expendable.

New Russian Federation Drone that is faster and for the moment unstoppable has neutralised everything NATO has thrown at it

2026-08-31T23:26:22.109+01:00

New Russian Federation Drone that is faster and for the moment unstoppable has neutralised everything NATO has thrown at it

German Panzer were formidable weapons until... until they faced the Soviet T34 and all its variants. Mud, snow and ice were no match for the T34. The American successes in space came after Sputnik and after the first man flight in outer space. So you should never underestimate what the Russian Federation can do when the need arises. The whole western technology - and this includes the Brits - needs urgent updates.

Although it might take some time for the Brits that sought to attack German ships with byplanes from the First World War to realise the error of their ways. Ben Wallace´s tanks did not fare so well. In fact, more than once the making of British tanks came to a halt as tank crews suffocated inside them. Now, it is John Healey´s time as Secretary for Defense to prove if he has what it takes to build weaponry that actually works.

During decades Britain was busy dismantling or abandoning its defense industries and later on everything came as "off the shelf" produced by foreign companies. Britain faced recently difficult times when trying to have aircraft for its two aircraft carriers and the aircraft carriers themselves had a long list of troubles that prevented them from taking part in naval exercises. President Trump recently laughed about British military capabilities, something that caused great offense and embarrassment in British circles.

Andy Burnham is like a guest that was in such a rush to come to the dancing party that he forgot to put on his shoes. "We are going to support you, all the way". On the way to where? For Britain, the problem is not just about the lack of hardware. Britain has a chronic, endemic, lack of manpower. Things got to bad trying to get recruits that were fit for purpose that Parliament passed legislation inviting Commonwealth volunteers to join the British Armed Forces and even this last attempt was not successful.

Given Britain´s geopolitical stances, Britain cannot even expect to attract volunteers without it being a national security risk. Will you provide weapons and military training to people that you cannot trust at the best of times? Diversity is according to certain people a very attractive proposition. Unfortunately, such diversity could lead to lethal danger in the homeland. The sole mention of the word Conscription and the idea of harsh punishment for those who refuse to serve is sheer madness.

Mentally dysfunctional British Politicians and the advent of war in Europe

2026-08-28T18:04:26.201+01:00

Mentally dysfunctional British politicians and the advent of war

Listening to British politicians one realizes that they live in their own world, totally detached from reality.

Simple logic does not seem to work in their brains. If there is war between A and B and you side with B sending weapons to kill and destroy A, what do you think that it is going to happen?

The disconnect is dangerous and it seems that there is the belief that "it will never happen to us".

Hermann Goering promised Adolf Hitler that "no German cities will be bombed". Things were rather different. In fact, it even started by accident. One evening a German crew got lost over Britain and unable to return to base with a bomber full of bombs they decided to drop the bombs and go back to base. The only problem was that navigating in the dark they had been unable to determine their own location and did not know that they were flying over London. Britain reacted and a bombing sortie was carried out in retatiation for what was believed to have been an intentional attacks against London. Until then, Adolf Hitler had rejected the idea of any attack against British cities and the Luftwaffe was focusing only on military installations. In reponse to the British retaliation to what had been an accident, German bombing missions were carried out against London and other British cities.

A bully Prime Minister trusts that nothing will happen to UK because of a gang called NATO, that Britain can continue attacking the Russian Federation and there were will be no lethal consequences for Britain. He coud be badly mistaken. Britain could be used as an example for other NATO members. A lethal attack against Britain would send a clear message to other NATO members telling them "if you move a finger, we will bomb you too". The reality is that most NATO members amount to zeroes when it comes to defensive and offensive power. NATO is very much the spirit of the gang. How do you tackle a gang? You target the leaders of the gang and Britain has positioned itself as the leader of a gang.

Herr Merz would do well looking at the photographs of German cities taken in 1945 and then tell the German people "Do not worry. There is going to be war, but nothing will happen to German cities". To make it more authentic he could even utter the same words Hermann Goering used to reassure Adolf Hitler.

With its military adventures, USA is creating misery across the world

2026-08-26T11:21:16.304+01:00

With its military adventures, USA is creating misery across the world

The picture published by the Washington Post tells the story. While a few who already have too much get richer, misery is spreading across the world thanks to American military adventures. Bombs here and bombs overthere, tales about fake glory and servicemen that have had too much to bear and talk about taking their own lives.

USA the land of the free or USA the land of those who have been taken for a ride by those they chose to run their country? Has the world become a better place because of the USA? Not at present. With energy bills and food bills getting higher and higher, millions of families across the world are facing unbearable hardship because of US military adventures.

USA is not creating freedom. It is creating hunger, starvation and widespread death and such misery is increasingly felt inside the USA.

UK Money Laundering networks- More than a billion Pound via small shops in UK

2026-08-24T16:53:21.636+01:00

More than a billion Pound money laundering scheme using Vape shops, hairdresser shops, barber shops, and a wide range of small firms like corner shops.

Given the costs of running a company in the United Kingdom, I have always wondered how many so called small shops manage to survive given operational costs that would not be justified given the revenues that the said companies can get. Remarkably many would be making losses every single day. Now, researchers seem to have found that the said companies that on average remain open for up to 6 months have unsuspected sources of income.

The six months cycle allows those using the said companies for money laundering to move under the radar, before the state has had the time to have a look at what is actually going on. More than a billion Pound is a sizeable number, monies that could be used by drug Cartels and other criminal organizations, including terrorist networks. British borders are not just porous. They are wide open. You could pay and maintain a small army with that amount of money, an army that could demolish Britain from within.

Britain is a Paradise for those wanting to acquire all kinds of weaponry. It is not a matter of lack of supply. If you have got buying power, you will certainly be a very satisfied customer, able to bring down Britain to its knees. While politicians are used to focus on geopolitics and external enemies, something is going on inside Britain. The number of illegal migrants coming from certain countries are mainly males of fighting age, combined with a vast supply of resources, including weaponry, is the stuff nightmares are made of.

Governments in Britain are more interested in protecting "the rights of illegal migrants" than in making sure that Britain is not destroyed from within. Such levels of carelessness indicate how corrupt and how inept UK politicians have become.

USA vs Canada: allies in war and enemies when it comes to trade? How does this work?

2026-08-22T21:06:10.694+01:00

Twice, when Donald Trump campaigned the motto was "Make America great again.". The obvious questions should have been how and at what cost?

On the one hand, President Trump stated that he wanted NATO countries to pay more for their Defense but, on the other hand, he set out to make things extremely difficult by waging trade wars against USA allies. Not only that. Military actions undertaken by the USA have made extremely difficult for USA allies to have access to energy at affordable prices. In fact, with few exceptions, energy costs had led to borrowing at increasingly high levels. We still do not know how is President Trump going to make America great again, but we do know that even for the USA things are reaching critical levels.

One particular angle that has not gone amiss is the fact the the USA military, regardless of all expressions of optimism, are not going through a brilliant time in their lives. Sailors have being going through very bad circumstances. When you hear about low morale leading to suicide attempts, somebody has to listen. When you hear about ships that malfunction while loaded with deadly weapons, somebody has to listen. Words like Fantastic and Fabulous do not cut any ice. When you hear that a major superpower has to stop military operations because it is running out of ammunition, somebody has to listen. Reality calls. If USA cannot win when fighting a country that is a little better than Iraq, somebody has to listen and somebody is both looking and listening.

The mutual protection alliance between Pakistan (a nuclear power), Turkey (a military power) and Saudi Arabia (an energy power) - all Muslim countries - did not come out of nowhere. Those who were under the protection of the USA are now wondering if the life insurance they were sold is actually going to protect them. Israel is closely associated to India as Modi´s India provides Israel with a substantial amount of military hardware. Middle East is starting to look like 1914´s Europe. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated very clearly that Israel will attack anybody that Israel sees as a threat. Regional countries are taking notice. Oman, usually a middleman between USA and Iran has been threatened by the USA. President Trump has made explicit threats to Oman. So how many Middle-Eastern countries still see the USA as a protector? Many no longer see USA as an allie and are rushing to maker their own arrangements.

Turkey is supposed to be a NATO country, but its alliances with countries outside NATO tell a different story. The moment of truth will come when NATO countries will have to make hard choices and it will come the time when NATO membership will be a hindrance.

UK: Inflation up 2.9%, oil and gas up, national debt up

2026-08-19T18:22:49.642+01:00

UK inflation up = 2.9% and oil and gas prices up and this means growth of national debt accelerates.

Whatever numbers are given, the said numbers are totally outdated 24 hours later. The image just explains what happens when inflation goes up. Indexed debt is adjusted using as reference inflation rates.

This is Britain today. How has the British economy being affected by President Trump´s military adventures? Pretty baddly. First the talk about tariffs, but that was nothing compared to the uncertainty created by military conflicts created by USA geopolitical stances.

And United Kingdom is not alone. Countries that were supposed to be allies of the USA have been extremely negatively impacted. This can hurt more than bombs and missiles as countries become politically and socially unstable. When governments and politicians become detached from reality on the ground and in so doing become detached from the peoples that get them elected, peoples who are increasingly allienated, this cannot lead to peaceful coexistence. Inflation means that peoples´incomes are constantly devalued and for many this means not being able to pay for the basics of human life.

UK: Arming a country that is at war with another country is asking for retaliation

2026-08-18T23:26:45.416+01:00

Russian Federation is not threatening United Kingdom. Russian Federation only makes announcements.

For several years, United Kingdom has been providing resources to kill Russians and to cause damage to Russian infra-structure. So, understandably, if the war has been declared or not is totally irrelevant.

So from now on, anything could happen in the United Kingdom. And, most importantly, United Kingdom is totally incapable or not willing to control its own borders.

Britain is a country in crisis. Whatever you touch, you discover quite a few things that are wrong. Britain is only kept alive borrowing increasing amounts of money with higher and higher interest rates. In spite of that, there seem to be no limits in terms of mismanagement and waste. An oversized budget is a problem, but cutting down could create even more problems. So, it is effectively a catch 22 situation. A country with little or no manufacturing is not a fit country. We could do well stepping away from warmongering. But, unfortunately, politicians of whichever political colours seem to be reading the same disastrous score.

Andy Burnham: UK General Election in October or November 2026?

2026-08-17T02:46:00.744+01:00

Andy Burnham: UK General Election in October or November 2026?

The talk about a General Election in October or November 2026 might be just talk or there could be justifiable reasons to mention the possibility of such election taking place. Andy Burnham inherited a historic majority from Keir Starmer but it is still Keir Starmer´s majority.

If the idea is to introduce measures in the Autumn Budget that many in the Labour Party might not like or would be tempted to vote against, then the threat of a General Election in which they could lose their seats might make many Labour MPs reconsider any kind of opposition to the Autumn Budget. What does the Labour Cabinet think about it? Being a Member of the Cabinet is not only about prestige and about the challenges of the job. It is also about financial issues. If you are a Member of the Cabinet, you often get paid both as Member of Parliament and as a Secretary of State. A General Election means taking the risk of losing both positions at once.

How ready are political parties to fight a General Election? By-Elections are one thing, but a General Election is a different cup of tea.