The heat wave in Russia reduced their grain harvest from approximately 100 million tons to 60 million tons, so they lost 40 million tons. That is a huge loss in crop yield but not a complete catastrophe. However, what if the heat wave had been centered on Chicago or Beijing, two of the most prolific grain agricultural areas in the world? What level of grain losses could we expect to occur?

According to one of the worlds leading food security experts, Lester Brown, if that heat wave had been centered in Chicago, we would have lost at least 150 million tons of grain, maybe 200 million tons of grain. If the temperature of Chicago had been 14 degrees above normal during July, there would be chaos in world grain markets.

Lester Brown goes on to say that “Beijing is located in the North China Plain. The North China Plain produces half of China’s wheat and a third of its corn. China, like the United States, produces 400 million tons of grain a year. So anything that took a big chunk of their grain supply would have had an enormous effect on the world.”

Of course, one summer of unusually high temperatures in many areas of Russia, the United States, and China, do not add up to climate change. However, the severity of the temperature change, especially in and about Moscow, are troubling. Should such temperature changes become a trend and spread to the Chicago or Beijing regions world grain markets would descend into complete chaos and severe food shortages would without a doubt create riots and violent behavior in much of the world.

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“Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life — where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management — with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to crea te a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won.

At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant — marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You wou ld not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde”

The sad fact is that as Andrew Lahde stated some two years ago the United States government is broken to the point of no repair. Events over the next 1 to 2 years will probably prove this fact well beyond any doubt. No one really knows what the future will bring but it is really impossible for the United States to have a recovery to the old happy motoring and senseless consumption economy. The economy that we are attempting to recover to is gone forever. Rather than attempt to recover to something that no longer exists our government should acknowledge that old solutions to our many problems no longer work and that a new economic and political system will have to be created in order for solutions to be implemented.

Of course, it is highly unlikely that our present crop of self-serving politicians will be up to the task of even admitting to the public that our government is badly broken and that a true emergency is at hand. When one refuses to admit that a problem exists it is impossible to find solutions for the problem. I expect that is why Andrew Lahde wrote such a pessimistic letter to his hedge fund clients and why the outlook for the continued prosperity and world leadership position of the United States is today in such jeopardy.

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A few of his colorful but all too true quotes from the article are as follows:

1. How can you fail to be pessimistic when the world economy is still dominated by the U.S. – a basket case, becoming weaker every day, with a political class too blind or too scared to admit in public the obvious fact that the country cannot carry on living beyond its means?

2. The Americans remain in denial, with monetary and fiscal authorities primed to pick up any slack created by U.S. consumers unable to make their mortgage repayments and maxed out on their credit cards.

3. As long as the markets continue to see the dollar as a safe haven, it remains strong and U.S. competitiveness suffers accordingly, making it impossible to generate the export-led recovery the U.S. so desperately needs.

4. First, remember that, with the exception of the Canadian and Australian dollars, and Swiss franc, all the world’s major convertible currencies are priced on the Manure Standard: the dollar is viewed as slightly higher grade organic fertilizer than the euro, the yen is somewhat less disgusting than the dollar.

5. All are malodorous to a degree which would have made them near-worthless only a few years ago. No wonder gold – useless, but odourless – is riding high. If I am right, it has far further to go.

To review the entire article “Waiting for the Next Shoe to Drop” and to gain some insight as to just how clueless the Obama administration is about the probable disaster to come go to Shoe to Drop

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Actually, Wikileaks has revealed very little if any new information about conditions in Afghanistan. Most of the approximately 77,000 documents released thus far are low-level accounts of incidents and tactical situations that have been previously reported or are minor events. The only information that may be classified as new is that the Taliban have on occasion used heat seeking missiles as offensive weapons against US and NATO aircraft. Even that information should not come as a surprise as it was the US that introduced the Stinger missiles into Afghanistan that were used by the Afghans against the Soviets with effective results.

The information that seem to be so disturbing to the American war leadership was that Pakistan has been double dealing in the fight against the Taliban. However, this information is not new. It has been surmised since 2004 that the Taliban has received and is still receiving assistance from the Pakistani ISI, their version of the US CIA. The Taliban was created by the ISI, with assistance from the United States CIA, during the Soviet-Afghanistan war which ended in 1989.

Rather than be bent out of shape that this old information is once again in the news the US should acknowledge that politics in Pakistan are extremely complicated and that the power of the central government is limited. The military has long had an important position of power within Pakistan and military objectives, especially in the Interservice Intelligence unit (ISI), often are not the same as the publicly announced objectives of the Pakistani government. Pakistan does not want a government in Afghanistan that is in any way friendly with their old foe India. The United States faces extreme challenges in working through a sensible relationship with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India.

The statement by Sec. of Defense Robert Gates that “blood is on the hands of Wikileaks” seems to me to be one of extreme hypocrisy. It would seem to me that blood is on the hands of Robert Gates, and President George Bush and President Obama administration’s for pursuing a ridiculous war that has killed thousands of Afghan civilians as well as over 1100 US servicemen during what is now a nine year effort in futility. The Taliban will still be in Afghanistan long after the US and Nato forces have pulled out. After all they are residents there.

Wikileaks has been and undoubtably will continue to be attacked by the present administration as well as by the military as the messenger that brings further confirmation as to how badly the war in Afghanistan has been managed by US and NATO forces. It seems that the truth is the last thing that the Obama administration wishes to reveal to the American public. This fact is a huge disappointment to those who believed that President Obama was serious about his desire to bring transparency to government as promised during his presidential campaign.

I strongly believe that this disappointment will make itself known during the November midterm elections although the war will likely be a minor political factor compared to the sorry state of the US economy.

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Once you understand the full ramifications of the most likely outcome to the BP Gulf oil spill one is likely to feel a mixture of rage and sorrow and helplessness as at this stage there is little that anyone can do, not even the President of the United States, to mitigate the disaster to follow. Mother nature has already started on a course of action that will probably be irreversible and we mere mortals will have to face the consequences of our insatiable demand for energy and our up to now boundless faith in technology to solve our energy requirements.

A recent posting on The Oil Drum website sums up in coherent fashion the events leading up to the Gulf oil spill and the actions taken by BP and the government thus far in an effort to contain the flood of crude oil spill gushing from the blown out well site. More importantly, the posting states the probable true condition of the blown out oil well and the horrific consequences that we will face for the next several decades as the estimated two plus billion barrel oil reservoir makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico at the rate of 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day.

For those of you not familiar with the Oil Drum Website it is a site that has been in existence for five years or so and usually discusses in an informative and scientific way the prospect of peak oil and how that event will effect the way our civilization evolves during the 21st century. Since the BP Gulf oil spill the Oil Drum has been focused on events leading up to the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform and the ensuing efforts to contain and clean up the oil spill.

In my opinion, as the “old hand” visitors to the Oil Drum website are involved in some way with the oil industry, as geologists, engineers, drillers, tool pushers, drilling rig hands, oil company executives, scientists, chemists, and others with great knowledge about the terribly complicated oil exploration, oil production, and oil transportation businesses, the abundant flow of information about the oil patch business at the Oil Drum is second to none.

While the June 13, 2010, 3:17 AM posting at The Oil Drum by dougr (about halfway down the page) is one of the most depressing readings that you could ever find about the prospects for getting the BP Gulf oil spill under control the details and forecast made by dougr are difficult to refute.

If over the next few weeks or months his forecasts are proven to be correct than President Obama will regret the day that he stated that he was responsible for managing the containment and cleanup of the oil spill. If the oil spill becomes as severe as forecast BP will have no option other than to declare bankruptcy and President Obama may well have to end his trips to the Gulf Coast as he will not at all be welcome there. In fact, the Gulf Coast States would likely fall into such a state of desperation and despair that no one even remotely connected to the federal government in any capacity dare step foot outside of heavily guarded fortresses located in Washington, DC.

The BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill is already by far the worst oil spill event in our nation’s history. The worst case nightmare conclusion to the event is likely to be one of the greatest catastrophes in the history of civilization.

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The extent of the Gulf Deepwater Horizon oil spill is already twice the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989 that contaminated the Alaskan shoreline. The major differences between the two events is that the Exxon Valdez spill involved a finite amount of oil and that oil was released near the surface, not at a depth of over 5,000 feet. From a Tort lawyers point of view the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the gift that will just keep on giving as oil continues to spill into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Knowledgeable oil industry experts seem to agree that the oil flow will not be stopped until a relief well can be completed. The best present estimates are that the relief well will not be completed until at best early August. Then there is no assurance that the first attempt at drilling the relief well will be successful. Evidence is surfacing that the drilling of the wild well had experienced several problems prior to the blowout. Apparently, the geological formation at the well site as well as the depth of the well presents real challenges for even the best and most advanced drilling teams.

After the April 20 blowout, legal squadrons quickly gathered to sue BP and its contractors for claims that experts say could add up to a half-a-trillion dollars or more. About 110 suits have been filed so far, according to Daniel Becnel, a leading tort attorney in Louisiana, and dozens more appear to be on the way.

The nightmare for BP, its top executives, and shareholders, appears to be just getting underway. The US government has recently estimated that the oil spill is gushing at the rate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels per day. Some scientists believe that even this revised estimate is far too low and that as much as 120,000 barrels per day could be contaminating waters in the Gulf of Mexico. The rate of spill is highly important to BP in that eventually they will be fined by the government according to the size of the total spill. This fine would be in addition to whatever damages are paid out to successful plaintiffs in tort lawsuits and in immediate voluntary payments made by BP to those who have suffered a loss of income due to the oil spill.

There is a fear among environmentalists and government officials, as well as an informed highly interested public, that significant amounts of oil will eventually find its way into the Gulf stream. Should that be the case significant damage would occur in the Florida keys, along the eastern beaches of Florida, and perhaps along most of the East Coast of the United States. Even the thought of the oil spill affecting such a tremendous area must give the BP executives migraine headaches and horrible nightmares.

To date, BP has agreed to pay claims for the loss of income and business by fishermen, shrimpers, oystermen, seafood restaurants, marinas, and other businesses and individuals who have lost their livelihoods or had their businesses damaged as a result of the oil spill. However, one has to wonder how long BP will maintain these payments should the disaster be as long lasting as many environmentalist now fear. Should damage eventually extend all along the Eastern seaboard the number of damage claims will likely be in the hundreds of thousands with damage amounts in the multi-multi-billions.

No doubt, in addition to the damage claims BP will be flooded with many thousands of lawsuits and attacked by an army of tort attorneys suing for substantial damages. With the Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill already deemed the greatest environmental disaster in American history, and the foreign corporation BP acknowledging responsibility for the spill, it is unlikely that BP will find much sympathy in American courtrooms from American jurors.

Tort lawyers will cleanup as they collect a significant percentage of the multi-billions in damages that will surely the awarded to BP oil spill plaintiffs. A golden age for tort lawyers has begun at a time of tremendous tragedy for many Americans. Probably, tort attorneys will still be handling BP oil spill lawsuits for the next 15 to 20 years. The big question is if even a major tremendously profitable, at least up to now, multi-national oil company such as BP can remain viable as it struggles with the financial and PR liabilities that such a major oil spill and cleanup effort will bring?

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As Pickens says about himself he has been around quite awhile and has seen a lot during his lifetime, including quite a lot in the oil patch. Pickens worked for Phillips Petroleum for three years before striking out on his own in 1954. With $2,500 of borrowed money, Pickens and two investors formed an oil and gas firm, Petroleum Exploration Inc., which focused on domestic oil and gas opportunities.

A few years later, he formed Altair Oil & Gas Co. to pursue oil and gas exploration opportunities in western Canada. Both were predecessor companies to Mesa Petroleum, which Pickens took public in 1964. Pickens built Mesa into one of America’s largest independent natural gas and oil companies. Mesa produced more than 3 trillion cubic feet of gas and 150 million barrels of oil from 1964 to 1996. Over the years T. Boone amassed a personal fortune estimated by Fortune Magazine to be about $3 billion.

Pickens’s assessment of the junk shots being carried out by BP along with the top kill operation is that they are also a low probability desperate attempt at stopping the flow of oil now gushing for the 41st day into the Gulf of Mexico. Pickens told Larry King that in his opinion we would still be witnessing the oil gushing into the Gulf 38 days from now. His appearance on the Larry King show was on day 38 of the Deepwater Horizon event.

When asked by King why he was so pessimistic about the outcome of the top kill operation T Boone replied that he was not pessimistic but based upon his considerable experience in oil drilling operations he was being realistic. According to T Boone Pickens the wild oil well will more than likely keep spewing crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico until a relief well can be completed.

An interesting ongoing discussion of the Deepwater oil spill can be found at The Oil Drum website. This is a web site where oil industry engineers, geologists, oil drilling experts, and others with an interest in the oil industry hangout, so much can be learned from the discussion threads that are now taking place about the DeepWater oil spill.

A number of postings concur with T. Boone Pickens assessment that the present efforts by BP have a low probability in killing the oil flow and that it will take a relief well to satisfactorily complete the task. Unfortunately, for BP, the Gulf of Mexico, citizens of the Gulf states, and all the rest of us, the drilling of the relief well will probably take at least two months to complete. Even that time period may be optimistic as with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill event Murphy’s Law seems to be fully operational.

No doubt, BP will feel compelled to continue to initiate low probability of success efforts in order to stop the oil from gushing into the Gulf. Public and government pressure is intense to “do something”. The problem is that fooling around with the damaged oil drilling equipment lying one mile deep in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico is a risky business. BP runs a real risk of creating an additional accident that would increase the flow of oil into the Gulf.

The Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill event is a disaster of the first order. While the loss of 11 lives due to the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig was tragic enough, the full extent of the tragedy will likely extend over decades. At this time the environmental damage and the damage to the economy of the United States is impossible to calculate but will likely be in the high multi billions of dollars.

Should T. Boone Pickens be correct in his assessment that only a relief well will stop the flow of oil then the long term damage will indeed be frightening in scope. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill event may be the mother of all Black Swans. The event is a horrific reminder of just how badly things can go wrong in a society that depends upon complex technology to supply its energy requirements.

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On CNN James Carville said “I’m as good a Democrat as most people, and I think this administration has done some good things. They are risking everything by this ‘go along with BP’ strategy they have that seems like, lackadaisical on this, and Doug is right, they seem like they’re inconvenienced by this, this is some giant thing getting in their way and somehow or another, if you let BP handle it, it’ll all go away. It’s not going away. It’s growing out there. It is a disaster of the first magnitude, and they’ve got to go to Plan B.”

The crude oil has now been pouring into the Gulf of Mexico for over a month. There is a growing sense that the Obama administration has stopped treating the spill as an urgent national emergency even as the impact of the disaster has magnified.

Not until yesterday, critics note, a full 30 days after the oil rig explosion, did federal officials establish a technical team to measure the full extent of the spill. BP has maintained that about 5000 barrels per day is spilling into the Gulf while outside experts estimates are as high as 70,000 barrels per day. What seems obvious, is that BP has attempted to downplay the consequences of the oil spill disaster, even as evidence mounts by the day that the environmental impact is extremely serious and may well last for decades.

It is also obvious that BP is growing increasingly nervous about the potentially billions of dollars in cleanup costs that they are expected to pay as well as the litigation costs of defending themselves against a growing mountain of civil lawsuits. President Obama has even hinted that criminal charges may eventually be filed against BP depending upon the findings of a special presidential commission assigned to investigate the Deepwater Horizon incident.

When a long-term Obama supporter such as James Carville calls the Obama administration naïve in relying on BP to properly clean up the oil spill and to take full responsibility for the disastrous consequences you can bet that there will be serious repercussions for the Obama administration in its handling of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

Not only do we have an environmental disaster on our hands but the Obama administration likely faces a political disaster of the first magnitude unless the oil spill can be soon capped and an effective cleanup somehow be accomplished. Obama critics have already labeled the Deepwater Horizon event as President Obama’s Katrina.

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Initially, Shahzad was considered to be a case of home grown terrorism. That is bad enough as he is a US citizen who apparently became increasingly radicalized during several trips to Pakistan and his involvement with radicalized Muslims within America. Apparently, Shanzad was motivated to strike innocent Americans in his adopted country, apparently out of concern for attacks against Muslims abroad. That is troubling enough, justifiably so, for Americans.

We now learn that Shahzad also apparently claims to have had encouragement and support, including bomb training, from the so-called Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan – the Pakistani Taliban, or TTP. The fact that we have been at war for the past nine years in Afghanistan against the Taliban is well-known. But to find now that the US is apparently under some form of attack from a rag-tag group of Pakistani extremists, the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan, of whom most Americans had never heard of two weeks ago is even more unsettling. Doesn’t president Obama refer to Pakistan as our friend and ally in what used to be called the War on Terror?

The fact that well-informed Americans, including those in high levels of government, wonder why we should be targeted by the TTP is, at least to me, a source of amazement. What did they think? Do Americans really think that we can attack foreign terrorist groups at will without any blowback and that our isolated geographical location can protect us in an age of high-speed travel and communication?

Consider these facts. Beitullah Mehsud, the 2007 founder of the TTP, was killed in an apparent US drone missile strike in 2009. Prior to his death Beitullah had threatened to strike the White House, or to hit targets in the UK. Such boasts were largely ridiculed by the American intelligence community and White House. But in a technically wired world in which people, things and ideas move so swiftly and freely, the ridiculers should stop to reconsider the possibility of blowback being not only real, but highly probable.

The man that replaced him, Hakimullah Mehsud, was apparently also the victim of two missile strikes this year, the second of which was thought to have killed him – until he recently appeared very much alive. Not only is he alive but undoubtably he is more motivated than ever to strike back at the Americans.

The attempted car bombing of Times Square in New York City has further complicated the fragile US – Pakistan relationship. Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, speaking this past weekend on the 60 Minutes television show, praised Pakistani progress in fighting extremism, but added, referring to the Times Square incident: “If, heaven forbid, an attack like this, that we can trace back to Pakistan, were to have been successful, there would be very severe consequences.”

One really does have to wonder what Hillary Clinton and other high-level officials in the US government are thinking. Are they such believers in American exceptionalism that they think we can escalate drone missile attacks within Pakistan, targeting suspected and known terrorists and being willing to accept significant collateral damage among the civilian population, without blowback attacks eventually reaching us within the United States?

From Hillary Clinton’s recent statement, and statements now being made by other high-level US government officials, one can surmise that whatever the current degree of US engagement with Pakistan, no matter the promised and actual level of US financial support, regardless of US proclamations that a long-term strategic partnership with Pakistan is vital to American interests, US-Pakistani relations cannot withstand a significant terrorist attack on the US homeland if it should emanate from Pakistani soil.

Unfortunately, given that so far the US response to the Times Square attack and its ties to the Pakistani Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan organization has been to escalate drone attacks on Pakistan soil additional terrorist attacks upon targets within America are to be expected.

It would appear that the relationship between the US and Pakistan is about to become even more difficult to maintain in a cooperative way and extremely complicated. A successful Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan attack on American soil would as, Hillary Clinton recently said, carry very severe consequences. What Hillary Clinton didn’t say is that the consequences would be severe for both America and Pakistan. Should America be provoked to put American boots on the ground in Pakistan all hell would break loose, probably not only in Pakistan but upon American soil.

America is not immune from blowback, especially since our borders have proven to be extremely porous. Not only that, but as the case of Faisal Shahzad has vividly shown, there are radicalized Americans already living in America who are willing to strike out against their own country. Blowback from drone attacks in Pakistan is increasingly likely to cause severe consequences for American security at home.

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Rather than the 5000 barrel per day flow rate estimated by BP, scientists state that the flow rate may be as much as 80,000 barrels per day. To date, BP executives seem to be in a state of denial as to the full extent of the DeepWater Horizon oil rig disaster.

Samantha Joye, a researcher at the University of Georgia who is involved in one of the first scientific missions to gather details about what is happening in the gulf said there’s a shocking amount of oil in the deep water, relative to what you see in the surface water. There’s a tremendous amount of oil in multiple layers, three or four or five layers deep in the water column.”

The plumes are rapidly depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, a great concern to scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.

Dr. Joye stated that the oxygen had already dropped 30 percent near some of the plumes in the month that the broken oil well had been flowing. “If you keep those kinds of rates up, you could draw the oxygen down to very low levels that are dangerous to animals in a couple of months,” she said Saturday. “That is alarming.”

Scientists have requested that BP give them permission to use sophisticated instruments that would be deployed near the well head in order to accurately measure the rate of flow of oil spilling forth from the broken well. “The answer is no to that,” a BP spokesman, Tom Mueller, said on Saturday. “We’re not going to take any extra efforts now to calculate flow there at this point. It’s not relevant to the response effort, and it might even detract from the response effort.”

At this stage of the disaster BP seems to be more interested in attempting to play down the potential environmental disaster that will likely be caused by oil plumes spreading out in the Gulf of Mexico rather than to assist the research scientists in collecting more accurate information as to the extent of the oil flow rate. Unfortunately for BP and for the population of the states bordering on the gulf the extent of the disaster will likely be monumental, far worse than the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska.

The United States government must immediately take a more direct role in attempting to contain the oil spill. The government should insist that BP fully cooperate with the scientific community in determining the amount of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico as well as drawing upon the scientist’s experience and knowledge as to how the spill might be contained.

A tremendous problem is that there is just not much knowledge about how the release of so much crude oil in a deep water environment can be controlled and alleviated. The formation of giant oil plumes that are spreading out several thousand feet beneath the surface is as unprecedented as it is alarming. There is a growing fear that the oil plumes will eventually find their way into what is called the loop current. Should that happen, the oil plumes would migrate into the Key West region and from there enter into the Gulf Stream.

Should that occur the potential environmental and financial disaster would be devastating. Not only would the beaches, fishing industry, and tourism industry of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida be drastically affected but the oil plumes could be carried by the Gulf Stream along much of the eastern seaboard of the United States.

BP is now frantically trying to cap the broken oil well. Should their efforts fail it may take until August for a relief well to be drilled that would intersect the broken well and hopefully allow for the oil now flowing into the Gulf to be routed through the relief well and captured by surface ships.

We should know within a few days just how disastrous the oil spill will be. We already know that a considerable amount of environmental and financial damage will occur. Oil is already entering the environmentally sensitive wetlands along the Gulf. Reportedly, BP has already occurred $450 million in expenses related to the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

Financial analysts that follow the oil drilling industry are beginning to fear that if oil is flowing at the much higher rate of 50,000 to 80,000 barrels per day, and there is a 2 to 3 month delay in capping the oil well, the liability to BP may become so great that it may bring down the giant oil firm. The United States government has been seeking assurances from BP that the oil company will fully cover the cost of the oil spill.

No doubt, that if giant oil plumes are forming in the Gulf to the extent as determined by initial scientific exploration, the Deepwater Horizon disaster will be the greatest natural disaster ever experienced by the United States. It is a humongous disaster that will likely take decades to fully rectify and is likely not only worse than we imagine but is worse than we can imagine.

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