Long Term Stock Picks

All - Star Stocks

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:01:00 +0000

1. RTN 42.68 a share / target price 55.00

Raytheon Company designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, supports and provides a range of products, services and solutions for principally governmental customers in the United States and worldwide. The Company operates in six business segments: Integrated Defense Systems (IDS), Intelligence and Information Systems (ibis'), Missile Systems (MS), Network Centric Systems (NCS), Space and Airborne Systems (SAS) and Technical Services (TS). In April 2008, the Company acquired SI Government Solutions. In July 2008, Raytheon Company acquired Telemus Solutions, Inc., a provider of information security, intelligence and technical services to defense, intelligence and other federal customers.Raytheon's bread and butter has been advanced weapon systems (specifically advance missile targetting systems). As the US government tries to continue to utilize remote precision strike capability, more and more contracts roll Raytheon's way. Additionally, with a burgeoning cybersecurity unit, Raytheon is very well positioned to capitalize on the strategic shift of the Obama administration.Fear will keep RTN going because it is the leading provider of missile defense technology, and North Korea has been doing a lot of saber rattling lately.With the government working on modernizing the military, the technology that Raytheon constantly develops makes it a go-to company for the government when the government is looking for new and innovative military solutions.
Solid earnings growth. Increases in spending should help this company and also debt is being paid back. This isn't a buy and hold, but a buy and take profits.Even if military/defense spending declines under the new administration, this company is well positioned compared to its competitors in the civil satellite/environmental monitoring areas, and stands to benefit from increasing interest in climate change and natural disaster prediction/tracking. This is a great long term play !

2. DCM 15.13 / target price 24.00 a share

NTT DoCoMo, Inc. is a mobile telecommunication services provider belonging to NTT group, whose parent company is Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT). The Company focuses on the development of mobile multimedia services, such as i-mode service (Internet access service for mobile terminals). In addition to offering music and video services and mobile credit payment services, the Company offer services and functions to match customers’ lifestyles and needs and providing services that make use of the characteristics of mobile phones, such as services tailored to use scenarios through collaboration with mobile phones and customer lifestyle support tools. The Company also provide handsets adapted for this range of services and contents, offering a handset lineup that has been tailored to customer values and lifestyles.Picking this one up while it's down.Japanese cell phone carrier. Largest carrier in the world in terms of subscribers. Good long term value... Seriously undervalued stock right now, strong customer base and innovative products. Demand for video on cell phones in Japan will fuel above average growth.

July Stock picks , buy a cow ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:37:00 +0000

(COW)iPath DJ AIG Livestock 28.96 a share as of July 3 , Target price 40.00 by Sept. 2009
Continuing issue of new stock will water down S&P500. Increasing population making less money will make practical items more utilized, more valuable. The quickening slaughter of livestock will eventually come to an abrupt halt, as this Nation cannot wipe out our cows/hogs indefinitely. Supply will dry up not just on livestock, but also byproducts (& milk). Lower middle class population increasing!buying season is here and w/ such a drop in price we can only go back higher when the econmey bounces back so will the demand for beef , people will start to order more high end meats , like filet , ny sirlions and more ! this is a long term play !Selling cattle because you can't afford to feed them corn only causes the price to escalate in the future. Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is forecast lower
this month based on reductions of both red meats and poultry. The January 30 Cattle report
estimated lower cattle inventories, including the lowest beef cow inventory since 1963, lower
retained heifers, and a smaller 2008 calf crop. Although the number of cattle outside feedlots is
slightly higher than last year, the base is lower, reflecting downward revisions in historical
inventories and calf crops. As a result, fewer numbers of cattle are forecast to be placed on feed
leading to lower beef production in 2009.I can't resist it...I have no choice but to be cow (bullish) on this stock. How can you go wrong when your ticker symbol matches your business like that? Besides, with milk and meat prices going through the roof, these guys have to be beneficiaries somewhere along the line.

Top June Penny Stock Pick

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:48:00 +0000

STXX .67 a share as of June 12 - Target Price .86 By Sept. 2009
South Texas Oil Company (South Texas) is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, production, exploration and development of oil and natural gas. As of December 31, 2008, the Company controlled approximately 46,502 gross (27,532 net) acres and operated approximately 124 producing well bores located throughout 14 counties and/or parishes in Texas, Louisiana, Colorado and the Gulf Coast. The acreage operated and controlled by South Texas includes Atascosa, Bastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Calhoun, Fayette, Frio, Gonzales, Lee and Matagorda Counties in Texas; Assumption, Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes in Louisiana, and Logan County, Colorado. As of December 31, 2008, its daily net production was approximately 250 barrels of oil equivalent (Boe), of which approximately 70% is oil. Its business activities are primarily conducted through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Southern Texas Oil Company, STO Drilling Company, STO Operating Company and STO Properties LLC.The Company’s properties are located in the United States. Its properties include Giddings Field, which is located in south central Texas, and includes the Bastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Fayette, Gonzales, and Lee Counties, Texas; Big Foot Field, which is located in south central Texas, and includes the Atascosa and Frio Counties, Texas; DJ Basin, which is located in Logan County, Colorado; Gulf Coast, which includes the Company’s Matagorda Bay wells in the shallow state waters of Matagorda and Calhoun Counties, Texas, and Louisiana, which includes projects with Blue Moon Exploration in Assumption, Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, Louisiana.
Giddings Field
As of December 31, 2008, South Texas controlled approximately 16,655 gross (14,142 net) acres, which included 47 producing well bores with net production of approximately 212 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d) in the Giddings Field. Its Giddings Field is 100% operated, and the Company holds an approximate 86% working interest. The majority of its proved reserves are located in the Giddings Field. As of December 31, 2008, the Company had identified 27 horizontal wells to drill from existing wellbores or offset locations that it has leased. It also possesses approximately 70 linear miles of two-dimensional (2D) seismic data.
The Company’s acreage position in the Giddings Field covers the Bastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Fayette and Lee Counties, Texas. Its acreage leasehold primarily covers the updip, shallow side of the Giddings Field, which is an oil-prone area. The primary target formations of the 27 identified horizontal wells are the Austin Chalk, Buda, Georgetown, Eagleford and Wilcox. The primary producing reservoir is the Austin Chalk (upper cretaceous), with secondary production from the Taylor (upper cretaceous) and deeper Buda and Georgetown Formations (lower cretaceous).
Big Foot Field
South Texas’ Big Foot Field is located in Frio and Atascosa Counties, Texas. The primary producing formations are the Olmos B and Olmos D sands, which range in depth from 3,100 feet to 3,600 feet. The Company has 73 wells cumulatively producing approximately 30 barrels of oil net per day (Bopd), with a 100% working interest in 4,050 acres. South Texas Oil has completed two re-fracs in two separate wells, which previously were completed and producing. These wells were marginal producers pumping from 0.25 to 0.5 Bopd each. After fracture stimulation, one of the wells is pumping at a stabilized rate of approximately seven Bopd, up from 0.5 Bopd. In addition to its workover activity, most of the Company’s existing wells in the Big Foot Field were drilled on 20-acre spacing, providing it with at least 40 additional infill drilling locations based on 10-acre well density.
DJ Basin
As of December 31, 2008, South Texas controlled approximately 23,111 gross (8,666 net) predominantly contiguous acres in the DJ Basin in Logan County, Colorado, in which it has approximately a non-operated, 37.5% net working interest. As of December 31, 2008, net production was approximately 18 Boe/d from four producing wells, or 7% of its daily production. The Company has entered into a definitive asset purchase and sale agreement with The Longview Fund L.P (Longview) to divest its Colorado DJ Basin property.
Gulf Coast
The Company controls 2,240 gross (652 net) acres in shallow Texas state waters in Matagorda Bay, in which it has identified four exploratory prospects from a 120-square-mile, three-dimensional (3D) seismic survey. As of June 2008, the Company agreed to contract operate the Matagorda Bay properties on behalf of Sonterra Resources, Inc., and it operates the Matagorda Bay wells and holds a working interest of approximately 20.5% and 37.5% on well #127-1 and well #150-1ST1, respectively. As of December 31, 2008, the Company drilled, cased and cemented two directional wells in Matagorda Bay, which are undergoing completion procedures. These wells were drilled with a barge rig in shallow Texas state waters (10 to 15-feet water depth) in Calhoun County, Texas. Target formations in the Frio sands are the Bolmex, Melbourne and Nodosaria, which range from 8,500 feet to 12,500 feet. Total measured depth (TMD) for well #127-1 reached 12,464 feet in August 2008, and for well #150-1STI reached 10,260 feet in November 2008. Well #127-1 was a new exploratory drill and well #150-1ST1 was a side-track, re-entry development well. Diagnostic well log analysis indicates multiple natural gas and condensate pay zones.
Louisiana
The Company has leasehold acreage and is pursuing leases in Assumption, Lafourche and Terrebone Parishes, Louisiana. As part of its joint venture project agreement with Blue Moon Exploration, the Company is focused on expanding its operations and developing oil and natural gas prospects throughout Louisiana. These prospects primarily target the Miocene formations. As of December 31, 2008, it leased 446 gross (22 net) acres in Lafourche Parish.For a long time, value investors have used the current share price relative to sales per share levels as an important valuation tool. We utilize a historical weighted average methodology that treats recent years more importantly in the calculation. When looking at STXX through this framework, we can see that our weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales per share ratios over the last 5 years are 64.28x and 7.60x respectively.
Utilizing this range we can see that STXX’s current Price to Sales per share ratio of 1.40x is significantly below its average levels historically. In fact, with a current price of $0.67, STXX is a full 97% below its average Price to Sales ratio at comparable sales levels. This is a rare occurrence and, when taken in context of the other areas of our analysis, can be a strong positive for our outlook for STXX.
STXX Cash Earnings
Price to Cash Earnings analysis is inappropriate for this company due to an insufficient positive cash earnings history. Rather than calculating a potentially misleading Price to Cash Earnings analysis, we have chosen to give STXX a neutral Price to Cash Earnings outlook at this time. However, we should point out that this metric is a significant element in Ockham’s methodology to analyzing the outlook for any company. Therefore, for STXX, our assessment is now more dependent on the Price to Sales analysis, and investors should be cautious with a company with very limited, if any, positive cash earnings.
STXX Dividends
A strong dividend payment history is looked upon as a favorable characteristic on a company’s future and potentially can receive a positive Ockham rating. That being said, we don't require dividend payments for company's whose management has elected to forgo them entirely. While we do like to see companies with healthy and growing dividends, it is not appropriate for all companies, especially those focused on growth. In this regard, we regard STXX as neutral because we do not have historical data for this company's dividends. We will being incorporating this into our analysis as soon as that data is available.

Top June 2009 Stock picks

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:20:00 +0000

1. ( WAC ) 13.50 a share 6/1 Target price 20.00 by 12/09
Hanover Capital Mortgage Holdings, Inc. is a specialty finance company whose principal business is to generate net interest income on its portfolio of mortgage loans and mortgage securities backed by mortgage loans on a leveraged basis. The Company avoids investments in sub-prime or Alt-A loans or securities collateralized by sub-prime or Alt-A loans. It leverages its purchases of mortgage securities with borrowings obtained primarily through the use of sales with agreements to repurchase the securities. The Company conducts its operations as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and has one primary subsidiary, Hanover Capital Partners 2, Ltd. (HCP-2). In April 2009, Walter Industries, Inc. announced the completion of the separation of its Financing business and the merger of that business with Hanover Capital Mortgage Holdings, Inc. to create Walter Investment Management Corp.Spun off by WLT (Walter's Energy) and merged with Hanover Capital Mortgage, is a REIT that manages a 1.8 billion dollar portfolio of Sub-prime, prime and non-conformingl (ie Moblil Homes) Mortgages ( with a delinquency rate under 6%). Insiders have recently gobbled up shares at a furious clip taking the stock price from 7 to just under 14 in less than 2 weeks. This, in spite of generous stock grants. One director, also Chairman of WLT, took down almost 2 million dollars worth of stock in three separate buys in the open market. The only revenue this company has at present is the yield from the mortgages, but with all the gov't programs, and the mortgage servicing and insurance divisions, there could be substantial earnings power hidden by all the recent machinations required to merge the companies. Not much info available since the merger was completed only a month ago, so you really need to read every SEC filing. Could be a real sleeper. Building a portfolio based on insider buys.Subprime mortgage REIT? It should yield almost 12% around $13, and the $1.8B portfolio could be a hidden value should the economy improve.They are looking to announce the DIV. by june or mid july ! when announce we will see a pop in this stock !

2. ( S ) 5.06 as hare 6/1 target price 9.00 a share by 9/09
Sprint Nextel Corporation (Sprint Nextel) is a holding company that offers a range of wireless and wireline communications products and services for individual consumers, businesses and government customers. The Company conducts its operations through two segments: Wireless and Wireline. Sprint Nextel owns wireless networks and a global long distance, Tier 1 Internet backbone. The Company offers digital wireless service to subscribers in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands under the Sprint brand name utilizing wireless code division multiple access (CDMA) technology. The Company offers digital wireless services under its Nextel brand name using integrated digital enhanced network (iDEN) technology.4G, Pre, improved customer service, more bang for your buck. (ie I dont get changed for pandora while other providers do, free TV, etc) Network will trump phones, and reliability will drastically increase. Those on the ground floor will profit. Sprint was priced as though it was going into oblivion. However the fundamentals manifested otherwise. Last quarter to everyone’s surprise they beat earnings estimates by 8 cents, paid down their debt by $600 million and added $800 million to their reserves, which now exceeds $4.5 billion. The company also has net cash flow of $3 billion. Their subsidiary Boost Mobile, best known for Prepaid customers had net additions of 800,000 new accounts and continues to grow at the same pace. Sprint's new management, starting in the first quarter of 2008 under the leadership of Dan Hesse, has been impressive in his actions in returning the company to profitability. He spun off the companies Wimax (4G) division into a joint venture with Clearwire, however maintaining 51% majority ownership. Clearwire also has a dream team of investors; Intel, Google, Time Warner, Comcast, Samsung and just recently Cisco. With Hesse at its helm the company has managed to cut costs through organic restructuring during these recessionary times. During his tenure the company has beaten earnings estimates four out of the last five quarters. Customer service has improved dramatically and anyone dealing with the company will ascertain that this is an unequivocal fact. All of this was done without a decent Smart phone contender, like the iPhone or Storm, however in two weeks Sprint will not only have a contender but it will have an exclusive on the best contender to date, the Palm Pre. According to the experts in the wireless world this could quite easily be the iPhone killer. Whether it is or not it will without a doubt be a major contender. It is my understanding that the Pre will also be 4G compatible, which is something ATT/iPhone will not be able to compete against, since ATT will not have a ubiquitous 4G network until 2012. Notwithstanding the aforementioned Sprint is very attractive on a valuation basis as a takeover target. With 49 million customers in the continental US a foreign telecom would do well in a Merger & Acquisition while Sprint is trading at around $15 billion. It is rumored that Telefonica, a $100 billion dollar global telecom company, is looking to do a major acquisition in the US and that Sprint is under its radar. Short of the economy going into a Depression, I expect Sprint to ensconce itself back to $9.5 a share, or $27 billion. $10 by the end of the year.

Is Jim Cramer"s Stock Picks In the red or Green ???

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Fri, 22 May 2009 14:50:00 +0000

By Matt Phillips

APThe hooting and hollering that accompanies Jim Cramer’s nightly stock picks on CNBC’s “Mad Money,” have drawn disapproval from a broad range of critics, from dour financial types to spoof-news anchor Jon Stewart, who famously dressed down Cramer back in March.

But beyond matters of style, many have wondered whether Cramer’s stock picks actually pan out. A newly published study by two Northeastern University finance professors set out to find an answer by looking at a dollar-weighted portfolio of recommended stocks. The professors — Paul J. Bolster and Emery A. Trahan — spell out the bottom line:

The cumulative return for this portfolio for the entire period is 31.75%, or an annualized return of 12.09%. The progression of returns for the portfolio and the S&P 500 index is shown in Figure 2. The S&P 500 earned 18.72%, or 7.35% annualized over the same period. The Russell 1000 Growth and Value indexes earned 24.54% (9.51% annualized) and 24.77% (9.59% annualized), respectively. The Russell 2000 Growth and Value indexes earned 22.51% (8.76% annualized) and 9.39% (3.78% annualized), respectively. Thus, the Cramer portfolio outperformed all of these benchmarks.
Even so, the academics explain that their analysis “suggests that Cramer’s portfolio returns are driven by beta exposure, smaller stocks, value-oriented stocks, and momentum effects.” Huh?

In a quick chat with MarketBeat one of the paper’s authors, Paul Bolster, was kind enough to translate, explaining that Cramer beats the market in part because of the excess risk in his picks. “If we adjust for his market risk, we come up with an excess return that is essentially zero,” Bolster said, adding that “zero,” in this case, means his returns are roughly in line with the risk he’s taking on. “He’s pulling his own weight with respect to the risks that his picks represent,” Bolster said. In the paper, Bolster and fellow finance professor Trahan conclude that “we find inconsistent evidence of Cramer’s ability to add value through security selection.”

There has been a lot of interest over the last few years in trying to figure out exactly how much stock-picking skill Cramer actually has. For his part he noted in a 2007 article in New York magazine that “my most recent internal performance review found that the stocks I pick for the show beat the S&P 500 63 percent of the time.”

In August of that year, Barron’s published a piece that attempted to get a fix on exactly how the Cramer’s picks fare. (It turns out that there seemed to be some debate over exactly what qualifies as one of his picks, centering on whether to include calls from the “Lightning Round” segment of the show where he fields questions about company shares on the fly.)

Numbers wonk Patrick Burns served as the key stat cruncher for the Barron’s story, and here’s his paper explaining his approach.

Jim Cramer has some bad stock picks , however most of them are good and if u are never wrong u are not human ! Cramer does a great job teaching others and is the best stock picker on TV !!!!!!!! Period.......

Renato Gerena

May 2009 Stock Picks to buy ! ( Ford & Scotts Miracle - Gro )

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 03 May 2009 20:58:00 +0000

1. ( F ) Ford 5.69 a share as May 1, 2009 Target Price 10.00 a Share.
Ford Motor Company (Ford) is a producer of cars and trucks. The Company and its subsidiaries also engage in other businesses, including financing vehicles. Ford operates in two sectors: Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector includes the operations of Ford North America, Ford South America, Ford Europe, Volvo, and Ford Asia Pacific Africa segments. The Financial Services sector includes the operations of Ford Motor Credit Company and Other Financial Services. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company sold the ACH glass business to Zeledyne, LLC. The sale included the Nashville, Tulsa, and VidrioCar plants. In 2008, Ford and its subsidiary, Volvo Car Corporation, completed the sale of Thai-Swedish Assembly Group to Volvo Holding Sverige, AB. In March 2008, the Company acquired 72.4% of the shares of S.C. Automobile Craiova SA. In June 2008, the Company completed the sale of its Jaguar and Land Rover operations to Tata Motors Limited.Nice run up in the last month... Look to see some profit takers, then watch out double digits...Ford did not get involved with the big bailout. They have a plan and they have enough capital to help them through the recession. With GM and Chrysler going under, I think Ford will be in a better market position. The Focus will probably be a big seller among the X & Y crowd.Meet the NEW number one U.S car maker. Nowhere to go but up from here once the economy recovers. With the cutbacks this company already made prior, and no debt, profitability is certain. With the economy now turning around, consumer spending and car sales will increase. I would assume if bankruptcy comes for either GM or Chrysler's, then Ford sales definitely will benefit.Customers who want a domestic vehicle will shy away from the other two. Ford has a good handle on reliability and fuel economy. I feel that once the job market opens, people will resume the purchase of new cars and trucks, and banks will follow suit with increased consumer loans. The economy will spiral upward.Has new products and has been aggressive in cost cutting. The right size for a the auto maker to become lean and mean.Ford has spent the past three years paring its capacity, its workforce, and its debt. More importantly, it pared its cars gas consumption and will soon have the best MPG rating in all car classes in which it competes. In contrast, its North American competition has stumbled. Aside from GM and Chrysler's woes, Toyota and Nissan and Honda are all hurting. Much worse, 2008 saw Ford retain its lead in truck sales, hurting Toyota and Nissan who spent the past three years planning on taking share from Ford and GM.

Meanwhile, GM and Chrysler have spent the past six months in desperation and will spend the next six attempting to survive...and then the next few years paying back the Government if they are still around. With these companies stumbling now, Ford will take market share form them for the rest of the year as sales decline and will then be able to increase share against them and the rest of the world when the auto industry does rebound.

Ford won't beat the rest of the world's automakers in the next few years in terms of production and revenue, but it doesn't have to. It will exceed expectations and beat the market from here with capacity in line with sales and vehicles that will sell better than capacity. While GM and Chrysler have been screaming for government bailouts, Ford has been surviving on its own. Recent reports point to the great likelihood that Ford will not have to worry about bankruptcy and the company projects operating profits in 2011.

This is a long term pick, buy and hold.............

2.The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company ( SMG ) As of may 1 32.92 target price 40.00
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Scotts Miracle-Gro) is a marketer of lawn fertilizer, grass seed and growing media products within the United States. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2008 (fiscal 2008), the Company divided its business Global Consumer; Global Professional; Scotts LawnService and Corporate & Other. Its major customers include home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, food and drug stores, commercial nurseries and greenhouses and specialty crop growers.I see this stock following the rest of the chemical fertilizer sector this summer...higher highs and higher lows. A recession at home isn't going to stop people from beautifying thier lawns...there is no way. And new home owners will need to fix there new bought foreclose home .With people paying so much for groceries, I have to believe that the demand for growing your own at a lower cost will be appealing to consumers. With many Americans spending more time at home, the idea of adding a few plants or flower boxes to brighten up the place makes sense. I think this stock has been sold to the point of being overdone. Probably won't bounce until after the next earnings release, but I think there is more upside potential than downside -- especially at this price. You also have a dividend , so u can grow more shares while u hold on to this stock !I see this stock following the rest of the chemical fertilizer sector this summer...higher highs and higher lows. A recession at home isn't going to stop people from beautifying their lawns...there is no way. Can you name more than 1 competitor?
so buy up some share and watch your stock grow crazy like your crabgrass on your lawn !!!!!!

3. Under Armour ( UA ) Price As Of May 1 , 2009 23.84 target Price 35.00 A Share By 12/09

Under Armour, Inc. (Under Armour), is engaged in the business of developing, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company product offerings consist of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the sales of apparel, footwear and accessories represented approximately 80%, 12%, and 4% of net revenues, respectively.While nothing currently looks good in a retail enviornment, UA has caught my attention for the one simple reason that a lot of Generation X & Y are wearing it.more easy points. This is a damn good company who is taking on Nike. Nike on other hand is old news with not so much new products and not a good quality and over priced.More cash than debt, sales doing well, many product lines, especially tactical that aren't affected by the down turn in the economy because Soldiers and Police need the gear to operate and stay alive so they're buying. They make a quality product that lasts and are slowly establishing themself in an area then moving on to other related but new areas...i.e. shoes. Nike is running scared and was great for the 80s/90s. UA is the new stuff for years to come.Under Armour is still small but has a loyal following for its apparel. That brand and image will translate into success as the company adds more types of serious footwear to its arsenal. Moving into athletic shoes to take on Nike. Great clothes, hugh profit margin, and all I see on the kids in the leagues that my children participate in is UA clothes. None of these kids are wearing Nike or Addidas anymore. You know brand loyalty, hit the young ones and let them buy your stuff for life. I like this company long term. Garage start up in the 1990s for college lacrosse. Now EVERY sport benefits from the specially designed Under Armour to wear under uniforms--professional and collegiate. And didn't they just get the naming rights to one of the college bowls? An incredible buy under $ 25 a share.Underarmour has a market share that many civilians don't normally see: Tactical Operators. Underarmour is the go to name for operators who require top-line thermal apparel. Ask any cop or soldier and i can gurantee they own at least 1 piece of UA clothing. As they keep increasing their market share with new products, it only gives these individuals a broader spectrum of products to pick from.It's becoming a household name.. I thought they would only specialized in football, but they are expanding to every other sport.Why do I think UA will outperform the S&P 500? Well let see, when I go to the gym I see more people wearing underarmour clothes. When I play my basketball game on Sundays, I noticed more players wearing underarmour socks and clothes and some even carrying duffle bags with the UA logo. What really stands out to me is that I noticed underarmour is having more shelf space with the retailers such as Footlocker, Sport Chalet, Dicks Sporting Goods, and even online retailer is loaded with UA apparels. I myself have several UA gears and also some of my friends start buying UA gear. Thats why I believe UA will do well in the long term. A company with little or no debt and generating positive cash flow. And the sports apparel business is huge which have room for NIke, UA, Addidas, etc. And finally, with the share price dropping so low, I strongly believe this company is undervalued compare to its growth prospects.

Need some Fizz for Your Profile?Best May 2009 Penny Stock To Buy ( Sweet Profit )

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:32:00 +0000

* Jones Soda ( JSDA ) 1.19 As of 4/27/09 , Target Price Is 2.00 A Share By 9/09
Jones Soda Co. develops, produces, markets and distributes a range of beverages, which includes Jones Pure Cane Soda, a carbonated soft drink; Jones 24C, a water beverage; Jones GABA, a tea juice blend; Jones Organics, a ready-to-drink organic tea; Jones Naturals, a non-carbonated juice and tea, and Whoop Ass Energy Drink, a citrus energy drink. The Company sells and distributes its products primarily throughout the United States and Canada through its network of independent distributors, national retail accounts, as well as through licensing and distribution arrangements.As of August 1st, 2000, Urban Juice and Soda Company Ltd. officially changed its name to Jones Soda Co ("JONES"). The story of the company began in 1987 when company founder and president, Peter van Stolk, recognized the potential of emerging "alternative" products in the beverage industry.

The company's start in the beverage world was not as a manufacturer of its own brand, but as a distributor in western Canada of other successful lines, including Just Pik't Juices, Arizona Iced Tea and Thomas Kemper sodas. By 1994, Jones was firmly established as a full line beverage distributor in western Canada, with a reputation for picking winners.

Jones Soda Flavors

Utilizing its experience and knowledge gained in the distribution industry, JONES decided to create and distribute its own brands. In 1995, JONES created two brands of its own: WAZU Natural Spring water, launched in April 1995 and Jones Soda, launched with six flavors in January 1996. Jones Soda has been recognized and awarded for its unique packaging that features constantly changing labels that are generated and submitted by its consumers. In 2000, Jones Soda Co. launched its own version of an energy drink, named WhoopAss. The following year, in 2001, Jones Soda Co. launched 6 flavors of Jones Juice. See Jones Flavor Evolution for more information

Distribution of Jones Soda began with what we call our "alternative distribution strategy." Jones Soda Co. placed it own coolers, bearing their signature flames, in some truly unique venues, such as skate, surf and snowboarding shops, tattoo and piercing parlors, as well as in individual fashion stores and national retail clothing and music stores. Following the execution of the alternative distribution strategy, Jones began an up and down the street "attack" of the marketplace; this time placing product in convenience and food stores. Finally, the company began to achieve larger chain store listings with companies such as Starbucks, Panera Bread, Barnes & Noble, Safeway, Target, Cost Plus, Meijers, Winn-Dixies stores, Albertson's, and 7-Eleven stores.

Jones Soda has also incorporated unique marketing initiatives in its strategy. Jones Pro Riders and Jones Emerging Riders, including extreme pro athletes BMXer Mat Hoffman, snowboarding extraordinaire Chanelle Sladics, and surf legend Benji Weatherly can be found promoting Jones and sporting the Jones logo at extreme sporting events across the country. The Jones RVs on both the East and West coasts travel through cities in North America handing out soda and talking to the people on the street.

Jones Soda has always been about the people and interacting with the consumer. From the ever changing photos on our labels to the company's websites, www.jonessoda.com and www.myjones.com, and the recent MyJones Independent Music site, www.myjonesmusic.com, Jones Soda has created a cult following and is a passion not only among soda drinkers but with its employees, directors and shareholders.

Jones Soda is a long term Play! Jones , Missed their numbers for the 4th quarter, .Buy on the dip . However Jones is still growing over 95% and have wisey managed to link an exclusive deal w/ the nfl seattle Seahawks. This is a huge step forward and considering Coke & Pepsi has a chokehold on most sports stadiums accross the USA. W/ new partnership walmart & target. This will only help get this product well known and liked across the USA. This will be Generation X & Y , New pepsi Product!!Great tasting product w/ great ponteintal on makeing more money & expanding & tapping into the soft drink world dominated by Coke & Pepsi ! ( Can U Say Buy - Out ??? The new ceo is bringing new products( vitamin Water & organic Drinks) and will better manage the bottom line for the company.Severly oversold stock. Expect positive earnings surprises over the following few quarters.I'm seeing Jones Soda in more and more places. I've got to think that this trend will see them shaving at least a bit off of Coke and Pepsi's market, particularly with health-minded consumers who don't like corn syrup in their soda. Potential earnings surprise and great product lineup (24c, cola, etc.) going into the summer. Also, Gaba drinks have potential to be wildly popular - could be the "cool" thing to drink ala RedBull.With their miniscule market cap, even if they take 1-2% of market share from coke or pepsi, you're looking at a 10 bagger. I dont normally trade in and out of stocks, esp small caps where volatility is its name. Any good news will send the stock soaring again and theres no way to time it..!So drink up & buy some jones , and make a SWEET Profit!!!!!!

Whopper or Big Mac ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 12:52:00 +0000

Cheap is chic. The recession has proven that.

But what really hammers home the point is that fast-food restaurants are doing everything they can to lure consumers in with value meals.

It's hard to avoid commercials touting big bargains from the likes of McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500), Burger King (BKC), Wendy's (WEN) and Yum Brands' (YUM, Fortune 500) Taco Bell, not to mention privately held Subway.

Taco Bell is offering nachos for as cheap as 79 cents. A buck and change can get you a double cheeseburger at McDonald's or a Whopper Jr. (the plural, according to an old Onion bit poking fun at William Safire, is Whoppers Jr.) at Burger King. And if you're more flush with cash, five dollars allows you to wolf down a foot-long hero at Subway.

Talkback: Are you eating at fast food chains more because of the recession?
However, these great caloric bangs for your buck aren't helping all the fast-food restaurants.

Burger King, the nation's No. 2 hamburger chain stunned Wall Street this week when it announced that "significant traffic declines in the month of March" are going to lead to a hit to profit margins this quarter. Shares of Burger King tumbled nearly 18% on the news.

Now it's tempting to conclude that the development means that fast food isn't recession-proof after all. But that would be wrong.

Instead, Burger King's problems appear to be a classic example of why any investor should think twice before making bold bets on an entire industry. In any market environment, you're going to have winners and losers.

Right now, Burger King's woes appear to be McDonald's gains. In an interview on cable network CNBC Friday morning, McDonald's CEO Jim Skinner (SKINNER!) said that Mickey D's was gaining market share in almost all of its markets and that sales were off to a decent start this year despite the recession.

That's worth noting. McDonald's was one of the few major blue chip stocks to actually finish 2008 higher than where it started, but shares have retreated a bit this year.

Some investors may be taking profits in McDonald's because of hopes that the economy may actually be set for a recovery. If that's really the case, shares of so-called defensive companies like McDonald's would probably lag stocks in more economically sensitive sectors like technology, banking and retail.

But while it's probably true that the economy is starting to finally near a bottom, it's hard to imagine the consumer going on lavish shopping sprees anytime soon.

Investors may be celebrating the first-quarter results of big banks. However, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) each reported increases to their reserves for future credit losses. And as long as unemployment remains on the rise, a lot of people are going to be worried about job security.

That means a lot more dining out will be confined to the likes of fast-food joints as opposed to fancy steakhouses. That clearly bodes well for McDonald's -- even though it may not for Burger King.

Whether or not Burger King can turn things around and start to regain market share from McDonald's remains to be seen. The company, which is known for some bizarrely memorable ad campaigns, may have stumbled recently and turned off consumers.

Burger King recently said it would revise an ad it had for its Texican Whopper in Europe that was thought to be offensive to Mexicans. The ad features a tall American cowboy and a short, Mexican wrestler draped in the country's flag.

Closer to home, Burger King has come under fire from many parents for a truly surreal commercial that features the King dancing to a remake of the racy Sir Mix-A-Lot hit from the 1990s "Baby Got Back."

The ad, which is for a kid's value meal featuring Nickelodeon cartoon character SpongeBob SquarePants, shows scantily clad women dancing around and shaking their behinds while the song declares that the King likes square butts.

The cheeky (sorry) ad might be a tad risque for kids, although Burger King and Nickelodeon parent company Viacom (VIAB, Fortune 500) have claimed the ad is meant for more adults. Alrighty then.

But what this all boils down to is that the shifting fortunes of Burger King and McDonald's should prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that it's often a mistake to make bold bets on industries based on economic trends. Keep that in mind whether you're looking to invest in burgers or banks.CNN.com
I like ( BKC ) for the long term !

Are u buying ( KO ) Coca-Cola ( Coke ) Company before Earnings Report ??

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:24:00 +0000

* KO 44.23 a share 4/21 Target Price 52.00
The Coca-Cola Company is a manufacturer, distributor and marketer of nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups in the world. Finished beverage products bearing its trademarks are sold in more than 200 countries. The Company markets nonalcoholic sparkling brands, which include Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. The Company manufactures beverage concentrates and syrups, which it sells to bottling and canning operations, fountain wholesalers and some fountain retailers, as well as finished beverages, which it sells primarily to distributors. The Company owns or licenses approximately 500 brands, including diet and light beverages, waters, enhanced waters, juices and juice drinks, teas, coffees, and energy and sports drinks.
soft drinks will probably do well over a recession, as they are relatively low-priced quick refreshments.Coke is a company I can understand. They make a product that people (myself included) want to purchase. They earn money and they pay a dividend. We could get into details about free cash flow and payout ratios...yeah :) I want to jump on down to MY bottom line: "Is it a company that is strong, understandable, and pays a dividend?" For me, KO fulfills the requirements.Strong, increasing dividend, unmatchable brand name, continual acquisitions of brands like VitaminWater. KO is a buy. One of the few companies that has the ability and market penetration to globally distribute and sell cheap, customizable WATER products that every single person in the world wants needs every day, multiple times a day.Coke is a good player in the International market when the dollar is low and when sugar prices are reasonable both of which are true at this time. It also has a decent dividend and plenty of cash on hand to pay it and get through the recession. It's been beaten down a bit so it's time to pull the trigger. Long term play Strong brand, cash, a business model anyone can understand. So buy before the earnings report on Tuesday !

I asked Jim Cramer About Clean Energy ( CLNE ) live at his 1000 show ( Check it out )

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 11:54:00 +0000

( Quote From Jim Cramer )“I take great pride in having tried to make Mad Money the most interactive show on TV,” Cramer told his live studio audience Wednesday night. “I actually talk to real people.”
In this spirit, Cramer took questions town-hall style as part of his 1,000th episode special. Watch video for his take on the waning influence of Berkshire Hathaway's [BRK.B 3051.00 136.00 (+4.67%) ] Warren Buffett, retirement accounts, President Obama’s affect on Clean Energy Fuels [CLNE 7.22 0.16 (+2.27%) ] and other natural gas stocks, biotechs and more.

The audience tests Cramer’s 30 years of Wall Street experience with questions about Berkshire Hathaway’s legendary leader, 401(k)s versus Roth IRAs, alternative energy and more....

I asked Jim Cramer about Clean Energy ( CLNE )@ the 3 Min. Mark ! The 1000 Mad money show was great !!

Your Thoughts??

Will Google buy Twitter ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 20:25:00 +0000

Perhaps no American company is more of-the-moment than Twitter, the real-time messaging start-up that allows people to publish their current doings, readings, and ruminations, or ask questions of their Twitter community and get fast answers.
Jon Stewart mocked Twitter on "The Daily Show" last week, showing a congressman Twittering away on his phone during a recent speech by President Obama. Google's chief executive made dismissive comments about Twitter, while BusinessWeek speculated that Google might buy the company for several hundred million dollars. And Facebook, which tried last year to buy Twitter for a reported $500 million, is rolling out a redesign of its website this week, in part to try to duplicate popular Twitter features.
And yet, despite the San Francisco company's growing reputation among the digerati as the next potential Google, YouTube, or Facebook, few American companies are less of-the-moment than Twitter: It is able to raise new funding from sources that aren't the federal government (more than $35 million last month), it has no announced plans to make money from its service, and two of its Boston-based investors don't seem to be exerting too much pressure on Twitter to bring in that first dollar of revenue.
"The priority is still growth and stability," says Bijan Sabet of Spark Capital, referring to increasing Twitter's population of about 5 million users, and making the service more reliable. As for a business model, Sabet says, "we're going to try a few things this year that we're excited about." His colleague Todd Dagres told me recently that "we're in no rush right now" for Twitter to start booking revenue.
Twitter is the latest in a series of Internet-fueled comets, a series of start-ups that have included the instant-messaging service ICQ, Web-based e-mail hosting service Hotmail, illegal music-sharing network Napster, social hub MySpace, and Skype, the free Internet calling system. Each start-up has attained incredible momentum based almost entirely on digital word-of-mouth. Many have been snapped up by larger companies before they were forced to figure out how to stand on their own two feet.
Some describe Twitter as a "micro-blogging" service - a way to transmit succinct messages to a group of friends that Twitter terms "followers." Others liken it to Facebook's status updates, where that site asks "What are you doing right now?" and lets your community see and comment on the answer. But über-Twitterer Chris Brogan says it also offers a way to tap the expertise of a large group.
"I ask Twitter for information many more times a day than I ask Google," says Brogan, a Boston area marketing consultant and conference organizer; Bro gan has more than 50,000 people who follow his "tweets," as Twitter messages are known. "I'm in Bellevue, Wash., this week, and so I will ask my Twitter followers where should I get breakfast. It's like having a lot of human concierges to answer questions."Twitter can also be a good conduit for news, Brogan notes. He learned of a recent plane crash in Amsterdam through the service, and the first pictures of the crash site were transmitted via Twitter.
But if you haven't used Twitter yourself, you may just not be able to understand, says venture capitalist Lee Hower of Point Judith Ventures. "It's kind of like TiVo was. You can explain it, but until you use it yourself you really can't tell how it's going to change the way you communicate," he says. (Earlier in his career, Hower worked for a few other Silicon Valley comet companies: PayPal, the online payment system, and LinkedIn, the social network for businesspeople.)
No one disputes that Twitter is spreading virally, as the techies like to say. (Barack Obama's staff Twittered throughout his presidential campaign, and the newly minted talk show host Jimmy Fallon has lately been asking his Twitter followers to submit questions he should ask guests.) Twitter said last month that its number of active users has increased ninefold over the prior year.
But using Twitter is free, and there's no advertising at all integrated into the service or the company's website. In these recessionary times, I suppose it's nice that someone doesn't have to worry about making a buck.
With regard to revenue streams, Dagres says that "all of a sudden there will be some changes that won't undermine the experience or virality" of Twitter, "but it will be pretty obvious how we're going to monetize it." Neither he nor Sabet will say more, and guessing at what Twitter will try has become something of a parlor game.
One possibility, Brogan speculates, would be selling tools for power users that help manage the direct messages they receive through Twitter. Another prospect would be a fee-based service that would help marketers understand what people are saying about them on Twitter.
"Somewhere in all of those millions of tweets," says Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff, "is something that can help Wal-Mart understand how to talk about themselves, who they should reach out to, and who are the people spreading disinformation."
Hower suggests that another model would be to charge for "a corporate version, where companies would pay to use Twitter as an internal tool for collaboration." And as the number of Twitter searches increase, where people look for information about what Twitter users are doing and saying, placing ads next to the search results is yet another possibility.
For entrepreneurs striving to figure out how to get their companies to profitability, there's a fair bit of skepticism Twitter will ever develop into an independent, sustainable business. "It's more likely that someone like Google or Microsoft will say, 'Let's buy this company and then figure out how to make it something that's valuable for our customer base,' " says Prasad Thammineni, a Twitter user who is also CEO of the Waltham start-up Pixily.
The company has already passed up one such offer, from Facebook. "Our feeling was that it was just too early, even though it was a pretty interesting offer," says Sabet, who was involved in the negotiations. The company still has much of the $55 million it has raised in its bank account, and it still has yet to hire its 30th employee.
For now, Twitter is one company that is somehow defying the gravity of the overall economy. "A lot of companies right now are being told to cut their burn rate," or the amount they spend every month, "and do what they can to survive," Hower says. "Twitter gets a pass on that by virtue of having extraordinary growth and a future with a lot of potential."

bostonglobe.com

I Will Be Attending Mad Money 1000 Show ! What Company Should i ask during the Lightining Round ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 21:29:00 +0000

Please Post What Stock Company , U would like for me to ask Jim Cramer during the lightning Round ?? The company w/ the most request i will ask during the lightning round On April 8 th , 2009 !

April 2009 - My Best Penny Stock - Jamba Juice

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 13:45:00 +0000

This is a new segment that i will post monthly ( Best Penny Stock For the month )

Jamba Juice - JMBA .43 a share As of 3/26 - target Price .75 a Share By Sept. 2009

Jamba, Inc. serves as a holding company for its wholly owned subsidiary, Jamba Juice Company (collectively, Jamba or the Company), which owns and franchises Jamba Juice stores. The Company is engaged in retailing blended-to-order fruit smoothies, squeezed-to-order juices blended beverages and healthy snacks using the Jamba brand. Jamba’s blended beverages are available in three sizes: Sixteen 16 ounces), Original (24 ounces) and Power (30 ounces). Most of Jamba’s stores carry a limited supply of related merchandise, including books and smallwares. The Company sells jambacards to its customers in retail stores and through its Website. As of January 1, 2008, Jamba had 707 stores, of which 501 were Company-owned (Company Stores) and 206 were franchisee-owned, 373 Company stores are located in California while one franchise store can be found in the Bahamas.The partnership with Nestle and the launch of the new in-store beverage lineup will be a shot in the earnings arm over the next couple of years. JMBA is definitely beaten down since its IPO. But on multiple metrics it is clearly undervalued. I expect that over 2 or so years, it will outperform the market. JMBA has significant growth opportunities.Poor Jamba. They've had a tough time in 2008/2009 with the credit crisis hitting California so roughly, impacting the key market for these delicious and mostly healthy treats. I had my first wheat grass shot at Jamba, which took a lot of trust for me! Jamba has a wide selection of products for most everyone, and this selection is 1) broader with new breakfast products and 2) soon to be more widely available as packaged goods with Jamba's venture with Nestle. Nestle is a powerhouse... they've got much, much more than the Nestle Crunch (a Halloween favorite). Importantly, Nestle has access to a variety of distribution channels, which may give Jambe the edge it needs is the abundant health foods market. The major risk to Jamba is rising input prices as food commodities experience rising prices due to increased global demand. If management can keep the growth trajectory balanced (and they are holding back new store growth during the 2008/2009 crunch), this looks like a great story for several years to come.summer is almost here, and with the possibility of big tax returns that means more disposable income to spend on goods and services .Jamba's distribution partnership with Nestle should over a healthy boost to the top line and lift the company's brand. Their new breakfast menu will produce more revenue from each location. Now trading at roughly 0.3x sales, it's a compelling value with a great deal of growth left. Any decline in record agricultural commodity prices should help on the cost side. The board owns over 10% of the company and is properly motivated to get the stock moving upwards again.Jamba Juice is a major bargain at these prices. They have no debt on their balance sheet but their costs are kind of out of control. If they some how manage to get their costs down and their margin up, we'll definitely see $10 per share. Great smoothie business with intrinsic value in its stores.

Dow Jones Pops Higher to 497.56 points / 6.84% higher !

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 20:25:00 +0000

Wall Street is getting the good news it wants on the economy’s biggest problems: banks and housing.
Investors reignited a two-week rally Monday, cheering the government’s plan to help banks remove bad assets from their books as well as a report showing a surprising increase in home sales. Major stock indicators jumped more than 6 percent including the Dow Jones industrial average, which surged nearly 500 points .
The Treasury Department’s bad asset cleanup program would tap money from the government’s $700 billion financial rescue fund and also involve help from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the participation of private investors.Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had announced an outline of the program last month but provided few details then about how it would work, leading to a poor reception in the markets.
The housing report released Monday was overwhelmingly positive for the markets even though it showed a decline in home prices in February. Investors are embracing any sign that a glut in homes for sale may be easing.
The market had received another dose of good news last week on the troubled industry as housing starts for February came in much better than expected.
Collapsing home prices and the damage they have caused banks are at the center of the economy’s current problems and are a major focus for the stock market. Banks have sharply curbed lending after becoming weighed down with loans that have gone bad, especially mortgages.
Investors had been largely disappointed in the government’s efforts to date to restore the banks to health, but finally seemed encouraged by the long-awaited announcement Monday of details for the government’s bad loan cleanup plan.
“The actions that we’re getting from a policy standpoint are very helpful in removing the sand from the gears,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Investments. “That is going to be good for the financials.”
The plan seeks to draw in private investors, including big hedge funds, to participate by offering billions of dollars in low-interest loans to finance the purchases. The government will share the risks if the assets fall further in price.
Shares of the country’s largest banks, which have been beaten down in recent weeks over concerns about their ability to weather the crisis, soared on Monday. Citigroup Inc. jumped 15 percent, and Bank of America Corp. added 18 percent.
Even banks regarded as more sound posted big advances. JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose 15 percent, while Wells Fargo & Co. rose 16 percent.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 497.56 points or 6.84 percent, to 7,775.94.
Broader stock indicators also surged. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 54.61, or 7.11 percent, to 823.15. The Nasdaq composite index rose 98.50, or 6.76 percent, to 1,555.77.

msnbc.com

My Best April Top Stock Picks ( 2009 )

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 14:30:00 +0000

1. Fluor FLR 36.55 as 3/22 target price 45.00 a share by 9/09
Cramer thinks increasing oil prices will boost business for an infrastructure play like Flour.Fluor Corporation (Fluor) is a holding company that, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) and project management services. Fluor serves a number of industries worldwide, including oil and gas, chemical and petrochemicals, transportation, mining and metals, power, life sciences and manufacturing. Fluor is also a primary service provider to the United States Federal Government. It performs operations and maintenance activities for major industrial clients, and also operates and maintains their equipment fleet. The Company is aligned into five principal operating segments: Oil and Gas, Industrial and Infrastructure, Government, Global Services and Power. Fluor Constructors International, Inc., which is organized and operates separately from its business segments, provides unionized management, construction and management services in the United States and Canada, both independently and as a subcontractor on projects to its segments.Flour is best of breed when it comes to American infrastructure stocks. They have a tremendous balance sheet, with over 2 billion in cash and only 18 million in debt coming due over the next five years. Management is very knowledgeable.cash on hand .great sector. this company has its hand in major developments across the world on current projects and currently planned future projects. I learned about FLR through research on USU (energy/uranium play) which has a large plant being built, borrowing big bucks to do so, and FLR being hired for the project. FLR's foothold on the industry has positioned itself well for the next decade. They have been conservative with their balance sheet and not overextended themselves during the boom years, and now, at today's levels, appear to be fairly priced - expecting this company to be perform well ahead of the S&P 500.best of breed. Perhaps Flour will use its strong balance sheet to make a few acquisitions.trading below it's lower bollinger band, and a 1.35 Beta, I suspect this cash flushed company will beat...no destroy the S&P when the markets turnaround. It's also got very attractive fundamentals, with 2009 earnings not to bad relative to 2008 . Until the package come thru within the next few months , buy on the dips down.

2. Vale RIO 13.93 as of 3/22 target price 21.00 by 12/09
Cramer’s bullish on RIO.
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Vale) is a Brazil-based company engaged in the metal and mining industries. The Company provides components for such products as appliances, electronic equipment, cars, computers and construction materials, among others. The Company is also active in the exploration of iron ore, nickel, aluminum, copper, coal, cobalt, precious metals, potassium and other minerals. Vale operates logistic systems in Brazil, including railroads and maritime terminals, which are related to the mining operations. The Company’s main subsidiaries are Brasilux SA, Companhia Paulista de Ferro Ligas, CVRD Overseas Ltd and Docepar SA, among others.Copper and commodities will continue to climb while the rest of the market flounders.RIO is a complicated company. I like it a lot though. My fairly uneducated glimpse of the industry leads me to believe that Vale is more agile than other competitors because it's smaller than rivals Rio Tinto and BHP.Long term I think that this is a young Oracle of Omaha pick.More countries than the U.S. are planning on infrastrusture to help rebound their economy.This company provides a necessary materials to worldwide clients. RIO has outperformed the market for several years and I believe the current downturn in the price of RIO is only a result of the slump in the US economy and stock market.Brazil's Vale the world's largest iron ore producer, has declared force majeure on some iron ore cargoes destined for China, helping lift the spot price of the raw material to a new record. The surge in spot prices makes it more difficult for steel mills to limit price increases in ongoing negotiations for next year with the world top miners. With iron ore at an all time high and a shortage of raw material forcing Chinese mills to scale back production in November after a record output of 42.92 million tonnes in October. Chinese steel output dropped to 39.69 million tonnes last month, its lowest level since March. If RIO can increase output and clear some of the congestion at ports it could have a solid 2009. Vale raised 18.4 billion reals ($11.5 billion) after underwriting discounts and commissions, the biggest share offering ever by a company in Latin America's largest economy. The funds will be used for general corporate purposes which may include strategic purchases. In 2007, Vale purchased Inco Ltd., a nickel miner. The company is also spending $59 billion over five years for investments into the company.Obama's infrastructure plan plus China's and India's economic growth as well as other emerging markets will position RIO very well in the long run.

Will Monday be the day to Revive U.S. Banks and the stock market ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 14:03:00 +0000

The Obama administration put the finishing touches on a plan to remove troubled assets from banks’ balance sheets that will be unveiled early next week.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner intends to expand the Federal Reserve’s new $1 trillion Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to buy frozen assets, according to people familiar with the proposal. The revamped Fed program will sit alongside the Treasury’s planned public-private investment funds, while the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s role will probably involve buying distressed loans, the people said.

“We’re going to move quickly to lay out a new financing program to deal with these legacy assets,” Geithner said in an interview with Bloomberg television at a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers in Horsham, England, last weekend. “We have and expect to see a lot of support for this program.”

Geithner’s next step to cleanse banks’ balance sheets so they can start lending again will be crucial after the lack of detail in a rescue he outlined last month caused a sell-off in financial stocks. The initiative’s success will depend on the participation of financial institutions, some of whose leaders yesterday criticized congressional proposals to tax Wall Street bonuses.

Private investment managers would run the Treasury funds that purchase the toxic securities. The rollout of details on the toxic-asset plan slipped into next week as the Treasury Department grapples with the outcry over bonuses awarded by insurer American International Group Inc. AIG has received more than $170 billion in government aid.

Revamping TALF

As it’s currently set up, the Fed’s TALF program may lend as much as $1 trillion to investors from hedge funds and pension funds to insurance companies to buy recently created securities backed by loans for car purchases, college education and real estate.

Broadening the TALF to include older, illiquid and lower- rated securities could allow the participants in the public- private investment funds to potentially repackage assets and sell them on to a wider group.

The Fed’s policy-making committee, which met this week in Washington, said in its March 18 statement that the range of eligible collateral for the TALF “is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets.” The Federal Open Market Committee also pledged $1.15 trillion of extra measures to lower borrowing costs, including purchases of long-term Treasuries.

The TALF is supported with money from the $700 billion bank-rescue fund passed by Congress in October. The Bush administration originally set aside $20 billion to seed $200 billion in loans; Geithner has proposed raising the government contribution to $100 billion. The facility could need additional money to address so-called legacy assets.

FDIC’s Role

The FDIC’s role will likely also expand to help finance the administration’s initiative, and may run an aggregator-type unit that would purchase whole loans -- those not packaged into other securities -- three people said. FDIC officials have extensive experience dealing with nonperforming loans from their role in taking over failed banks. Under one scenario discussed, the FDIC would attach a government guarantee to the assets and then sell them to investors.

Treasury spokesman Isaac Baker declined to comment. Details of the plan could still change. “The markets are just getting increasingly nervous, the longer they wait to announce the plan,” said Stephen Myrow, a former Treasury official in the Bush administration who helped create the TALF.

Recession Impact

American banks have suffered more than $800 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the market for subprime mortgages collapsed in 2007. The credit crisis that followed pushed the economy into the deepest recession since 1982. A surge in unemployment and collapse in house prices has added to bad loans and further discouraged banks from lending.

The crisis pushed the U.S. government into pouring billions of dollars into financial institutions, including Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and AIG.

President Barack Obama has ordered Geithner to “pursue every legal avenue” to recoup money distributed to employees in an AIG unit that sold credit-default swaps and whose bad bets helped touch off the financial crisis.

Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis called a proposed tax on bonuses “unfair” in a memo to employees yesterday, while Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit said his bank is “working in every appropriate way with policymakers.” JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon held a conference call with about 200 executives, saying the firm is concerned about retention and is working with lawmakers.

Outcry in Congress

The banks are responding to an outcry in Congress over $165 million in bonuses paid by AIG after the insurer received $173 billion in federal bailout funds. The Senate will vote next week on levies on bonuses after the House of Representatives approved a 90 percent tax on bonuses at companies that received bailout funds.

“People are very anxious about this getting too widespread, this notion that no one on Wall Street or in banking deserves any money,” said Seamus McMahon, a consultant with Booz & Co. in New York, who works with financial firms.

The Treasury secretary disappointed markets and lawmakers when he didn’t provide many specifics about the distressed asset clean-up in his Feb. 10 unveiling of the administration’s approach.

Stock Rebound

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index slumped 11 percent that day. It has since advanced about 12 percent after statements from banks including Citigroup and Bank of America that earnings accelerated since the start of the year.

Still, the index has retreated the past two days as legislators worked to increase restrictions on executive pay. The Fed said earlier this month that existing pay limits wouldn’t apply under the TALF program.

Opening the TALF to legacy assets “is the most effective and efficient way to purge troubled assets from the financial system,” Myrow said. To guard against losses the Fed would take so-called haircuts, or discounts on the loans, for the collateral it accepts.

It’s not clear when Obama will need to ask Congress for more money to continue to fund the bank-rescue program. Most of the $700 billion has already been allocated to existing programs.

“We’re talking about big numbers here,” said Kevin Petrasic, a former official at the Office of Thrift Supervision, who is now a lawyer at the Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker law firm in Washington. Congress is still “smarting” from having to dole out for saving Wall Street, he said.
bloomberg.com

Watch Ben Bernanke sit down and talk about the financial crisis on 60 minutes

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:18:00 +0000

Three years into his term as Federal Reserve chairman, and fresh off the dedication of a highway exit in his name, Ben Bernanke is sitting down for his first television interview. The central bank chief will appear Sunday on CBS’s “60 Minutes” in a double-length segment about the financial crisis and recession.

Bernanke
In the first on-air TV interview with a Fed chief in two decades, CBS says, Mr. Bernanke will discuss “what he thinks went wrong with America’s financial system, how it caused the economic crisis, what the Federal Reserve is doing to help fix it and when he expects the crippling recession to end.” The program, which airs Sunday at 7 p.m. Eastern time, will include an interview in Mr. Bernanke’s hometown of Dillon, S.C., with a visit to his old high school. (No word on whether they’ll stop by his now-famous childhood home.)

Fed chairmen generally don’t grant on-the-record interviews, aiming to avoid settings that could confuse or unsettle markets. Of course, Mr. Bernanke delivers speeches regularly (with audience questions often carried on live TV) and testifies frequently before Congress. Last month, he took questions from reporters for the first time in a public setting in an appearance at the National Press Club. In addition, over the years select quotes from interviews with Mr. Bernanke (that were otherwise off-the-record) have occasionally appeared in news outlets.

Still, Mr. Bernanke — a former Princeton economics professor — has struggled throughout the financial crisis to counter claims from lawmakers that he’s helping Wall Street more than Main Street. The “60 Minutes” format, and a walk along Main Street in South Carolina, should help humanize the Fed chief.

It’ll also come at a particularly delicate time for his career. Mr. Bernanke’s four-year appointment as Fed chairman expires in January 2010. After what’s likely to be the longest recession since the Great Depression, President Barack Obama will have to decide by the fall whether to reappoint him.
Aside from the president he's the most powerful man working to save the economy, but you have never seen an interview with Ben Bernanke.

Bernanke is the chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, better known as the Fed. The words of any Fed chairman cause fortunes to rise and fall and so, by tradition, chairmen of the Fed do not do interviews - that is until now.

The Federal Reserve controls the economy by setting interest rates. But after the crash of 2008, Bernanke invoked emergency powers, and with unprecedented aggressiveness has thrown a trillion dollars at the crisis.

Ben Bernanke may be the most important Fed chairman in history. The question is, can he help lead America out of this deep recession and when?

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"Mr. Chairman, I'm gonna start with a question that everyone wants me to ask: when does this end?" 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley asked Bernanke.

"It depends a lot on the financial system," he replied. "The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis. We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely. But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not gonna see recovery. But we do have a plan. We're working on it. And I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year. We'll see recovery beginning next year. And it will pick up steam over time."

Asked if he thinks the recession is going to end this year, Bernanke said, "In the sense that this decline will begin to moderate and we'll begin to see leveling off. We won't be back to full employment. But we will see, I hope, the end of these declines that have been so strong in a last couple of quarters."

"But you wouldn't say at this point that we're out of the woods?" Pelley asked.

"No," Bernanke replied. "I think the key issue is the banking system and the financial system."

"Unemployment, as we sit here, is about 8.1 percent. I wonder, do you expect double digit unemployment?" Pelley asked.

"Well, it's hard to forecast exactly where we're going. Unemployment is rising. Job losses are still very severe. And no doubt, the unemployment rate's gonna go higher than it is. But I think, again, that if we do succeed in stabilizing the financial system, that we'll begin to see a slower pace of decline, and eventually, a stabilization that will set the basis for a recovery," Bernanke said.

"You seem to be saying that we're not heading into a new American Depression?" Pelley asked.

"I think we've averted that risk. I think we've gotten past that and now the problem is to get the thing working properly again," the chairman said.

Bernanke, age 55, has been chairman of the Federal Reserve Board since 2006. He had previously served as a Fed governor, then chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, before being appointed as Fed chairman by President George W. Bush.

For this interview, he opened up the Fed headquarters, rarely seen by the public. It's a monumental building along the National Mall. Construction started in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression.

"You know Mr. Chairman I think the Federal Reserve, for most people, is a mystery," Pelley remarked.

"Well, it's an institution that people don't hear so much about but it's a very important one. It manages monetary policy for the country. It's one of the main tools we have for stabilizing our economy and keeping prices stable," Bernanke said.

Asked when it was founded, Bernanke told Pelley, "The Fed was created by Congress in 1913. And its original purpose was to deal with financial panics, which is what we're doing right now."

Bernanke's crisis started in 2007 with the mortgage meltdown; lenders began to fail. Bernanke cut interest rates repeatedly. In 2008, the Fed stopped the collapse of Bear Stearns by arranging a sale to another firm.

But then came the end of Wall Street as we knew it. Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were seized by the government. On Sept. 14, Merrill Lynch was sold in distress. The next day, the 158-year-old investment bank Lehman Brothers failed

"You didn't rescue Lehman Brothers. It set off a worldwide panic when it went bankrupt. And I wonder, looking back, whether you think that was a mistake," Pelley asked.

"There were many people who said, 'Let 'em fail.' You know, 'It's not a problem. The markets will take care of it.' And I think I knew better than that. And Lehman proved that you cannot let a large internationally active firm fail in the middle of a financial crisis. Now was it a mistake? It wasn't a mistake for the following reason: we didn't have the option, we didn't have the tools. All the Federal Reserve can do is make loans against collateral," Bernanke replied.
The day after Lehman, Bernanke's Fed did something astounding: it loaned $85 billion to a company that wasn't a bank at all - American International Group (AIG), the global insurance giant that was also involved in backing risky mortgage investments. Bernanke says, unlike Lehman, the Fed could make the loans based on good collateral in AIG's portfolio.

"There have now been four rescues of AIG, $160 billion. Why is that necessary?" Pelley asked.

"Let me just first say that of all the events and all of the things we've done in the last 18 months, the single one that makes me the angriest, that gives me the most angst, is the intervention with AIG. Here was a company that made all kinds of unconscionable bets. Then, when those bets went wrong, we had a situation where the failure of that company would have brought down the financial system," Bernanke said.

"You say it makes you angry?" Pelley asked.

"It makes me angry. I slammed the phone more than a few times on discussing AIG. I understand why the American people are angry. It's absolutely unfair that taxpayer dollars are going to prop up a company that made these terrible bets, that was operating out of the sight of regulators, but which we have no choice but the stabilize, or else risk enormous impact, not just in the financial system, but on the whole U.S. economy," Bernanke explained.

By September, Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson went to Capitol Hill to urge a massive bailout of the banking system, which lawmakers soon passed.

Asked how close of a call it was, Bernanke said, "It was very close. It was very close. The Congress passed the bill that gave Treasury the right to put capital into the banks in the first week of October. And it was in the second week of October that the crisis reached its peak. If we had not had those powers, we could have had a much, much worse outcome. So it was a very dangerous situation."

"Was anyone on Capitol Hill skeptical? Did they push back at all, you know, 'Mr. Chairman, it's probably not quite that bad'?" Pelley asked.

"Well, I do remember one conversation I had where I was addressing a caucus of congressmen. And a congressman said to me, 'Mr. Chairman, you know, I'm talking to bankers in my town. I'm talking to shopkeepers in my town. And they say things are normal. Nothing's going on. We don't see any problem.' And I turned to him and I said, 'You will,'" Bernanke recalled.

That second week of October, the Dow fell 18 percent - its worst week in history. At that point, $8 trillion had been lost.

In the crisis, Bernanke had freedom to act immediately - he doesn't need permission from Congress or the president. While they debated on Capitol Hill, Bernanke cut interest rates nearly to zero; then he used Depression-era emergency powers to launch a dozen rescue programs of his own. There was support for money market funds, mortgages, short term lending to small business, and support for auto loans, student loans and small business loans - commitments of a trillion dollars, doubling the size of the Fed's balance sheet.

Asked if it's tax money the Fed is spending, Bernanke said, "It's not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed, much the same way that you have an account in a commercial bank. So, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It's much more akin to printing money than it is to borrowing."

"You've been printing money?" Pelley asked.

"Well, effectively," Bernanke said. "And we need to do that, because our economy is very weak and inflation is very low. When the economy begins to recover, that will be the time that we need to unwind those programs, raise interest rates, reduce the money supply, and make sure that we have a recovery that does not involve inflation." He's not kidding about printing money: the Fed issues U.S. currency, which is why it says "Federal Reserve Note" on all the bills in your wallet. The Treasury Department's Bureau of Engraving and Printing is just a few blocks from Bernanke's office. It prints the money at the Fed's request.

The Fed's mandate from Congress is to put enough money i the system for maximum employment, but not so much that it sets off inflation.

The Fed actually pays for itself and returns billions in profits to the Treasury.

In a sense, Bernanke has been preparing for this emergency his whole professional life. He got a PhD in economics from MIT. He chaired the economics department at Princeton, where his specialty was the Great Depression.

He's among many economists who now believe it was the Federal Reserve itself that helped turn a recession in 1929 into a global calamity.

"They made two mistakes, basically. One was they let the money supply contract very sharply. Prices fell. Deflation. So monetary policy was, in fact, very contractionary. Very tight during that period. And then the second mistake they made was they let the banks fail. They didn't make any strong effort to prevent the failure of thousands of banks. And that failure had terrible effects on credit and on the ability of the economy to right itself," Bernanke explained.

Bernanke told 60 Minutes we were close to a second Depression and he is determined to not let the major banks fail on his watch.

"One of the things that I think many people watching this interview don't understand, is why there are multiple bailouts, four bailouts of AIG, three bailouts of Citigroup. There is a sense that this is a band-aid approach, that we're not getting to the root of the problem," Pelley remarked.

"Well, part of the issue is that, you know, the economy has gotten a good bit worse. You know, the first part of the crisis was subprime and other assets that were toxic. Now, we're in a second phase, which is that the economy is very weak," he said. "So the economy's weakness has meant that some of the initial attempts to stabilize the banks haven't been enough, and we've had to do more."

"You know, Mr. Chairman, there are so many people outside this building, across this country, who say, 'To hell with them. They made bad bets. The wages of failure on Wall Street should be failure,'" Pelley remarked.

"Let me give you an analogy, if I might," Bernanke said. "If you have a neighbor, who smokes in bed. And he's a risk to everybody. If suppose he sets fire to his house, and you might say to yourself, you know, 'I'm not gonna call the fire department. Let his house burn down. It's fine with me.' But then, of course, but what if your house is made of wood? And it's right next door to his house? What if the whole town is made of wood? Well, I think we'd all agree that the right thing to do is put out that fire first, and then say, 'What punishment is appropriate? How should we change the fire code? What needs to be done to make sure this doesn't happen in the future? How can we fire proof our houses?' That's where we are now. We have a fire going on."

Bernanke told Pelley that "fire" is still burning.

Asked if all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent, Bernanke said, "I believe they are, yes. But we are doing a stress test right now, where we're looking at what the positions of the banks are under a tougher economic scenario than the one that we currently expect. And what we plan to do is to say how much capital would each bank need to be well capitalized. Not just solvent, but well capitalized, even in these more adverse scenarios."

"Are you committing in this interview, that you are not going to let any of these banks fail? That no matter what their balance sheet actually looks like, they are not gonna fail?" Pelley asked.

"They are not gonna fail," Bernanke said. "But what we can do, should it be necessary, is try to wind it down in a safe way."

In other words, Bernanke thinks government should stabilize failed financial companies and take them apart slowly. "So, for example, in the case of AIG, we've prevented a bankruptcy, because of the chaos that would create. But we're also demanding that AIG divest itself, sell off its subsidiaries, and use the proceeds to pay back the government," he said.

"What are the dangers now? What keeps you up at night?" Pelley asked.

"I think the biggest risk is that, you know, we don't have the political will. We don't have the commitment to solve this problem, and that we let it just continue. In which case, you know, we can't count on recovery," Bernanke said.

The Fed estimates the wealth of American families fell 18 percent in 2008, the worst since the Great Depression
"Does the Federal Reserve bear any responsibility for missing what was happening to the banks, as it was happening?" Pelley asked.

"Well, like other regulators, we probably could have done more. We've already done a lot of - put a lot of effort into reviewing our practices. And reviewing the bank's practices. We are trying to strengthen our regulation at every point that we can. So, I don't want to deny that we certainly could have done a better job, and others could have done a better job," Bernanke conceded.

Now President Obama and the Congress have a fiscal stimulus plan of nearly $800 billion. There's that separate bailout for financial firms - at least $700 billion. And plans are developing for a way that would take on the bad debt of crippled institutions.

"There was a panic in 1907. So the Fed was created to prevent that from ever happening again. And then we got the Great Depression. And now we have this. How do we prevent this from occurring another time?" Pelley asked.

"Well, tougher regulation of large firms. It includes having a set of laws that allows us to wind down. A large, internationally active firm, without the adverse impacts on the markets that a disorderly bankruptcy would have. It includes possibly having a systemic regulator. A regulator that has some responsibility to look at the system as a whole," Bernanke said.

"Your response has been to do what the Fed didn't do in 1929, and that is pour money into the system. But there's an argument made today that that's not what the problem is. The problem isn't that there's too little money in the system. The problem is there's too much fear in the system. That with these companies being propped up by the government, no one on Wall Street can tell who's solvent and who's not. And therefore, business does not move," Pelley pointed out.

"Well, I absolutely agree that confidence is key," Bernanke said. "People don't know what's happening. And they're afraid. And they're not sure what, you know, whether or not the system is gonna recover. So, how do you get confidence, that's the question. And I think the way to get confidence is to show progress."

Asked if he's seeing any progress, Bernanke said, "I think all of our efforts, so far, have produced results. We're buying about $500 billion in mortgages, in package and securities by the G.S.E.s, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And that seems to have brought down mortgage rates significantly. It allows people to refinance. To get out of high rate mortgages. We are seeing progress in the money market mutual funds, and in the business lending area. And I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets and as some confidence begins to come back that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back."

"Do you see green shoots?" Pelley asked.

"I do. I do see green shoots. And not everywhere, but certainly in some of the markets that we've been functioning in. And we've seen some improvement in the banks, as well," Bernanke said.

Asked what the first signs of recovery will be, Bernanke told Pelley, "Well, I think that one sign would be that a large bank is successful in raising private equity. Right now, all the private money is sitting on the sidelines saying, 'We don't know what these banks are worth. We don't know that they're stable.' And they're not willing to put their money into the banks."

"If you had a message for the American People in this interview, what would it be?" Pelley asked.

"Scott, I'd say three things. I'd say, first of all, that the Federal Reserve is here, and is gonna do everything possible to support this recovery. The second thing I would say is that we have to understand, though, that recovery is not gonna happen until the financial markets and the banks are stabilized. And we do have a plan, we have a program for that. But it's gonna take some patience," Bernanke said.

"But the third and final thing I'd just like to say to the American People is that I have every confidence that this economy will recover, and recover in a strong and sustained way. The American people are among the most productive in the world. We have the best technologies. We have great universities. We have entrepreneurs. I just have every confidence that as we get through this crisis, that our economy will begin to grow again, and it will remain the most powerful and dynamic economy in the world."
cbs.com

How much money have you saved? US Savings Rate Starting to Recover ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 21:13:00 +0000

How much money have you saved?

US Savings Rate Starting to Recover During Deep Recession

Here is a graph of the U.S. savings rate as a percent of disposable personal income.

It looks like savings from lower gasoline prices is showing up as savings - as opposed to other consumption - and this process of increasing savings is a necessary step towards restoring healthy household balance sheets.

This is one of the areas some analysts really got wrong during the housing bubble. As an example, here is Larry Kudlow in 2006: Riding the Right Curve

"Despite the grim picture the mainstream media continue to paint about just about everything ... there's one thing they just can't taint: This U.S. economy remains very healthy."

"The latest chant is that ... a day of reckoning marked by a housing-price crash and an overwhelming debt burden is headed our way. This is utter nonsense."

"Family net wealth, the nation's true savings rate, advanced 8 percent in 2005 to a record level of $52 trillion."

By focusing on net wealth (inflated by the housing bubble and excessive stock prices), Mr. Kudlow completely missed the biggest story of our time. As I noted then, the savings rate (as calculated by the BEA), is the true savings rate. The savings rate was too low then - and the rate remains too low now - but it is starting to recover.

New Video From The John Stewart Show With Jim Cramer !

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 01:35:00 +0000

Comedy Central's Jon Stewart capped off a week-long battle with CNBC's Mad Money man Jim Cramer by literally reducing him to quivering apologies ?

A clip showing the latest mano-a-mano between public figures on opposite sides of the political spectrum, this time between Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" host Jon Stewart, and CNBC Financial
Jim Cramer.

While I enjoy watching Cramer every night, one must remember the show is primarily entertainment. The financial networks exist to promote their advertisers financial and investment products. Who would expect them to warn about the credit bubble or coming Washington national debt collapse which will destroy much of the remaining private wealth in America today or what this will do to the dollar, the stock market, bonds, gold or the real estate market?
It is ironic that Jon Stewart and a comedy show instead of the regulators or news media had to bring all of this public. Also in Cramers defense he is less guilty than most of the other financial media for their media efforts together with Wall Street, the politicians incompetent regulators for what has happened.
China is now worried about their dangerous over investment in US Treasury obligations. Washington ’s long-term choice is either repudiation or monetization. For monetization to be effective, the depreciation in the dollar would have to be substantial and this in turn would dramatically raise prices of imports for American consumers which would mean a tremendous drop in foreign imports. Debt monetization would cause more disruption to exporting nations than selective repudiation of Treasury debt.
What are your thoughts ??

Is Jim Cramer "Nervous" For the "Daily Show," ? Jon Stewart Is My "Idol" ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 00:13:00 +0000

Jim Cramer appeared on "The Martha Stewart Show" this morning and divulged that he's nervous to face-off with Jon Stewart on "The Daily Show" tonight — and that Stewart's attacks have especially hurt him as he considers Stewart an "idol."

"He's killing me!" Cramer said of Stewart. "My kids only know I have a show 'cause Jon Stewart's been skewering me."

"I thought you were going on tonight," Martha said.

"I am, and I'm a little nervous," Cramer said. "How bad is it gonna be? Is he gonna kill me?"

"You should be nervous," Martha told him. "He's fast as lightning!"

"Oh I'm not, I'm slow as molasses," Cramer replied, leading Martha to suggest that he brings a banana cream pie to "The Daily Show" as a peace offering.

Cramer then explained why he's been so affected by Stewart's critiques:

The reason why it's been so hard for me, the attacks, is that early on I patterned my show off of his, which is that you can do an entertainment business show. And then suddenly to be attacked by a guy that's your idol makes it difficult.
Later in the show, Martha invited Cramer to pound out pie dough as though he was beating Jon Stewart.

"Can I do this til I'm on his show?" Cramer asked, banging away at the dough.

"No, you cannot do that. No violence," Martha said.

Jim Cramer Vs John Stewart - heats up againest each other !

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 10:21:00 +0000

You have to hand it to Jon Stewart: The Daily Show host at least has the good sense to mock his "Basic Cable Personality Clash" with Jim Cramer the very moment it becomes mockable.
Cramer, the relentlessly incorrect host of CNBC's Mad Money, discussed his ongoing war of words with Stewart this morning on sister NBC shows Today (on the flagship network) and Morning Joe (on MSNBC). Even he seemed to think the feud was being inflated beyond all reason. "I think you ought to lighten up," he told Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough as Scarborough ranted against the Daily Show.
Stewart apparently feels likewise. So while he made fun of some of Cramer's statements from the NBC morning-show tour on the Daily Show tonight, as promised, he also made light of the clash itself. As it turned out, those were the show's funniest moments (see latter half of the clip above).
Why is it so much fun to watch these two entertainers fight? Cramer's been taken down a peg before, after all. There are plenty of serious examinations of the state of the economy out there. But that's all so depressing, especially when you realize there will be no Jon Stewart-supplied punchline at the end.Jon Stewart has, to borrow a phrase from former cohort Stephen Colbert, just put Jim Cramer on notice.
The burgeoning feud between the fake-news purveyor and Mad Money man was kicked up a notch yesterday after Cramer called The Daily Show a "variety show" and Stewart went back on the offensive.
The latest round kicked off when Cramer appeared on Today on Tuesday and was asked by Meredith Viera how he felt being called out by Stewart for telling CNBC viewers last year that "Bear Stearns is fine"—just before the investment bank went under.
"Oh, oh, a comedian is attacking me!" said Cramer derisively. "Wow! He runs a variety show!"
Stewart fired back in a brutal eight-minute Daily Show tirade. "You don't have to make comedians sound like a venereal disease," cracked Stewart. "And 'variety show'? What?! They make me sound like some kind of buffoon, just flapping my arms with crazy buttons and wacky sound effects!"
The video then cuts to Cramer doing exactly that, hitting his trademark buzzers and silly sound effects while hyping stock picks on his heavily watched CNBC show.
Stewart also showed Cramer being interviewed yesterday on MSNBC's Morning Joe in which anchor Joe Scarborough said, "Maybe Jon Stewart can tell us what the markets are going to do over the next 10 years."
To which Stewart retorted: That's why I don't make the claim to any authority. That's why my network doesn't have the slogan 'In Stewart We Trust.' They don't want people to think I'm God," replied Stewart, poking fun at CNBC's "In Cramer We Trust" tagline.
The feud, billed by Stewart as "Cramer vs. Not Cramer: Basic Cable Personality Skirmish '09!" could come to a head on Thursday now that Cramer has agreed to be the featured guest on The Daily Show.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Basic Cable Personality Clash Skirmish '09

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Economic Crisis

Go Cramer !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why is The Market ( Dow Jones ) Getting a Chris Brown Beat Down in 2009 ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 13:55:00 +0000

Worldwide semiconductor revenue will decline by nearly 20% in 2009 to $199.2 billion, the high-tech market research firm says. The industry will not recover to 2007 levels until at least 2012.

“Declining confidence resulting from recent shocks and increased uncertainty about the future will lead to more conservative spending even after liquidity improves and the economic recovery is well underway,” says Jim McGregor, In-Stat analyst. “Restoring consumer and business confidence and overcoming excess capacity will be key to recovery and subsequent growth.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

* Although recovery is expected to start in the second half of 2009, revenue growth in 2010 will be modest, at 11.8%.
* Digital Signal Processor (DSP) Revenue declined by 14.9% in 2008 to $6.6B, its lowest level since 2003.
* In its most recent cycle, semiconductor fab capacity utilization peaked at 90% early in 2008, and dropped to 87% in the third quarter.
* The downturn is expected to be deep enough, and long enough, for semiconductor capacity to ultimately fall, as a result of mergers, acquisitions, bailouts, restructuring, and other industry realignments.

Recent In-Stat research, Global Semiconductor Product Market Forecast—Help Wanted: Spenders and Lenders (#IN0904559SSF), covers the worldwide market for semiconductor products. It includes an in-depth global and regional economic analysis and resulting impacts on demand for semiconductors, how demand stacks up with projections for manufacturing capacity, and other factors affecting demand and pricing.

The research provides:

* Worldwide and regional GDP forecasts through 2013
* Semiconductor capital expenditure forecast through 2013
* Wafer fab capacity and utilization (includes trending for wafer starts)
* Worldwide semiconductor unit, ASP, and revenue forecasts through 2013
* Semiconductor revenue forecasts by region and by WSTS semiconductor product categories
* Top line semiconductor revenue forecast by end-use segment
Investors have gotten used to bad news, but layoffs topping 600,000 a month still made for a volatile day on Wall Street.

Wall Street ended another difficult week with an equally difficult session Friday: Stocks rose, fell, then clawed their way back to a mixed close after the Labor Department released its February jobs report.

But while the market finished well above its lows — the Dow Jones industrials had a modest gain after falling more than 120 points — many market watchers say there’s no reason stocks can’t slide further, even as the major indexes are near 12-year lows.

“My sense is we haven’t discounted all the negatives out there as of yet,” said Rob Lutts, president of Cabot Money Management.

Big institutional investors are still largely waiting for positive signs from the economy before making any major commitments. As a result, the market is largely being driven by “short” traders, who sell borrowed stock and then buy it back later in hopes that the price will decline in the meantime. That makes for a choppy, unpredictable market — one that analysts expect to stay erratic for the forseeable future.

“The shorts are having a complete field day in this environment,” said Kent Engelke, managing director at Capital Securities Management in Glen Allen, Va. “Right now you have everybody so fearful, and these shorts are controlling the market.”

Some of the week’s economic data, including retail sales and factory orders on Thursday, were better than expected but not enough to encourage investors to buy. The February jobs numbers on Friday were worse than analysts expected, but not as bad as some investors had feared; but that also didn’t motivate many investors to take chances on stocks.

Employers cut 651,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate jumped to 8.1 percent. The government also revised its December and January job loss figures up to 681,000 and 655,000, respectively.

News of continuing struggles in the banking industry and concerns about General Motors Corp.’s survival are only intensifying the market’s uneasiness. Wells Fargo & Co. became the latest bank to cut its dividend, and the market waited to see if GM would be forced to seek bankruptcy protection.

The Dow rose 32.50, or 0.5 percent, to 6,626.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.83, or 0.12 percent, to 683.38, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 5.74, or 0.44 percent, to 1,293.85.

The Dow is down 6.2 percent for the week and the S&P 500 index is down 7 percent. Both have fallen more than 24 percent since the start of 2009; the Dow is at its lowest point since the spring of 1997, and the S&P 500 is at its lowest level since September 1996.

The Nasdaq is down 6.1 percent for the week, and at a six-year low.

Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.77 billion shares.

With uncertainty about the economy and financial system keeping the bulk of investors out of the market, even small advances have been difficult to maintain.

“When you get this precipitous of a fall, you are always due for some sort of rally, but a rally will be unsustainable,” said Jeff Buetow, senior portfolio manager at Portfolio Management Consultants.

And the market, analysts say, needs more clarity about the troubled financial sector before buyers come back into the market with any force. Until then, Engelke said, a sustainable advance is impossible.

“You can’t have a healthy economy without a healthy banking system,” he said.

Wells Fargo cut its dividend to 5 cents a share from 35 cents, following last week’s move by JPMorgan Chase & Co. to reduce its dividend to 5 cents as well. Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. had already slashed their quarterly dividends to a penny per share. The banks are expecting loan losses to increase because of the recession.

Wells Fargo shares rebounded Friday by 18 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $8.30. Citigroup, which fell below $1 a share for the first time Thursday, rebounded by a penny to close at $1.03.

But most other financial stocks slumped. JPMorgan dropped 67 cents, or 4 percent, to $15.93, Bank of America slipped 3 cents to $3.14, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell $6.07, or 7.4 percent, to $75.65 and Morgan Stanley fell 80 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $17.18.

GM shares continued their freefall as speculation about the automaker’s future swirled. On Friday, members of the Obama administration’s auto task force met again with the company’s stakeholders.

GM dropped 41 cents, or 22 percent, to $1.45.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.89 percent from 2.81 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill fell was fell to 0.18 percent from 0.20 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week down 435.99, or 6.2 percent, at 6,626.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 51.71, or 7 percent, to 683.38. The Nasdaq composite index fell 83.99, or 6.1 percent, closing at 1,293.85.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, fell 37.97, or 9.8 percent, to 351.05.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index — a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies — ended at 6,935.38, down 538.61, or 7.2 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,164.99.

I saw Buy Low Sell High ! I am putting 1/2 of my money in the market now !!

Is Silver a Buy ? Gold or Silver ?

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 01:35:00 +0000

The market’s just too volatile, the economy too depressed for investors to attempt much more than capital preservation right now. And it doesn’t help that President Obama’s spending plans are just killing all kinds of stocks. So Cramer recommended that viewers take shelter where they can.
The bulk of Mad Money’s recent picks have been dividend-paying companies, especially less economically sensitive names like Kimberly-Clark and Verizon Communications. But Cramer also endorsed precious metals like gold and silver because they, too, offer protection against the wild swings of a troubled market. There’s also inflation to worry about, as the Federal Reserves continues to print large amounts of money, and gold and silver defend against that as well.
Cramer thinks gold, now at $917.60 an ounce, is buy, and he suggested that investors start to build a position. He’s recommended all types of gold plays, from bullion to coins to the SPDR Gold Shares
. Any of them work. It’s just a question of which strategy you like best.
But silver, too, is worth a look. Not only is it historically cheap, but also silver has been outperforming gold this year. While gold is up about 6% in 2009, silver’s jumped 15%. And since 1968, the average price of an ounce of gold was 52 times that of an ounce of silver, but right now that figure’s up to 74 times.
Cramer likes the iShares Silver Trust
[SLV 12.78 0.13 (+1.03%)
as the best silver investment. This exchange-traded fund actually owns silver and usually tracks its price closely.
There are other options, though, but Cramer’s less enthusiastic about them. Silver bullion, much like gold, is bought in bulk, so this is largely a play for the wealthy. Coins often get marked up 15% to 30%, but people compelled to buy them should look to the Canadian Maple Leaf and U.S. American Eagle, sold at these countries’ respective Mints.
Silver Wheaton

has the best growth, Cramer said, even though the company has exposure to underperforming base metals. If the Mad Money host could recommend any miner right now, he’d stick with Agnico. As attractive as silver might be, he likes gold more.
Cramer does believe that both gold and silver will decline in the short term. So his stance on these precious metals in bearish. He just thinks that they’re a great insurance against the market, and he wants to give investors the chance to buy them on the way down.
Cramer recommended that investors build a position in gold and silver equal to 20% of their portfolio. If, say, they want 100 shares of the GLD, they should buy 25 shares right now, the next 25 at $85 and so on. Follow the same model for buying the SLV. Grab some shares at $12, then $11.50…Worst-case scenario? The share price reverses direction and you don’t get a chance to buy more at discounted prices. That sounds like a win-win to Cramer.
cnbc.com

Your Obama-Proof Portfolio: Edison International By Jim Cramer

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:45:00 +0000

Utility stocks have always been staid and dependable recession plays. The business was steady and the dividend payouts solid. But that’s changed lately. Many companies are struggling with financing, and that’s caused a string of dividend cuts. President Obama’s cap-and-trade budget, Cramer said, will only make things worse.
This cap-and-trade initiative will limit U.S. carbon emissions and auction off permits to companies that can’t meet that limit. Basically it’s a tax on emissions. Utilities that burn coal and other fossil fuels will pay the bulk of those taxes. So if investors want a good utility play, they’ll need to find one with as little carbon exposure as possible.
Cramer likes Edison International
[EIX 24.84 -0.56 (-2.2%) ]
, which operates both a utility and a non-utility power-production division. The utility, Southern California Edison, accounts for 80% of sales and supplies energy to 50,000 square miles across central, coastal and Southern California, excluding Los Angeles. Edison Mission Group, the non-utility power producer, runs plants in Illinois and Pennsylvania that trade energy and related commodities and also invests in energy infrastructure projects.
But it’s SoCal Edison that’s important here. Coal, the big carbon emitter, accounts for only 13% of the utility’s generating capacity, which is great given Obama’s focus these days. And the company plans to spend $880 million between 2009 and 2013 on its solar power program. At the same time, Edison Mission Group will work with First Solar

[FSLR 110.44 6.47 (+6.22%) ]
on upcoming solar projects. Edison International might be the kind of utility, Cramer said, that Obama holds up as an example. The government might even be willing to subsidize the business.
EIX beat its fourth-quarter earnings estimates Monday, and the dividend yield is a healthy 4.9%. That payout’s safe because there are more than enough earnings and cash flows to back it up. Still, the stock took a hit today with the rest of the market, and Cramer thinks there could be an analyst downgrade on Tuesday. But that will just give investors a great entry point. EIX is actually trading at a discount to its peers, and according to the company’s net asset value estimations this $25 stock should fetch as high as $56. Even on the low end of analysts’ estimates EIX should be worth about $43 a share.
So how do you play it? The company is waiting to issue 2009 guidance until after the California Public Utility Commission meets on March 12 to vote on a rate increase. That increase would boost SoCal Edison’s compound annual growth rate to 16% from 2009 to 2012. The problem, though, is that this vote has already been deferred twice. But Cramer thinks it’s a good idea to be in ahead of that vote regardless. Even if the Commission defers again, investors can still buy more and slowly build a position. In this environment, that’s the best way to buy stocks – in increments as the share price declines and the yield gets bigger.

Top March 2009 Stock Picks ! ( Family Dollar Stores & Allos Therapeutics

noreply@blogger.com ($ Mad Money Renato $) — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 14:27:00 +0000

1. ALTH 5.84 a share Target price 12.00 by 12/09

Allos Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that is focused on developing and commercializing small molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer. The Company’s lead product candidate, PDX (pralatrexate) an antifolate is in Phase 2 trial in patients with relapsed or refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma. The Company is also investigating PDX in patients with non-small cell lung cancer and a range of other lymphoma sub-types. The Company’s other product candidate is RH1, a targeted chemotherapeutic agent, which is in a Phase 1 trial in patients with advanced solid tumors or non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma.
No doubt the market has cost investors a lot of money over the past year and a half. The image of people too afraid to open their 401(k) statements has become cliché. And the common wisdom says that years will pass before those losses are recovered.
But that’s not necessarily the case. Speculating on the right stocks could generate sizable returns, enough to fill some of the holes this recession has poked in your portfolio. That’s one of the reasons that Cramer’s a fan of calculated risk taking. The potential payoff is significant. Speculation’s also a way to keep things interesting. Instead of banking with the usual suspects – maybe Coca-Cola
[KO 40.85 -0.22 (-0.54%) ]
Johnson & Johnson
[JNJ 50.00 -2.44 (-4.65%) ]
[AAPL 89.31 0.12 (+0.13%) ]
– investors can put their money in a small up-and-comer.
So who’s the latest Mad Money Spec Friday pick? Allos Therapeutics
[ALTH 5.64 -0.42 (-6.93%) ]
, a biotech with a $5.64 share price and a market cap of under $500 million. Like all speculation plays, Allos has a catalyst – the probable Food & Drug Administration approval of its cancer drug – that should send the stock higher.
Allos makes an orphan drug called Pralatrexate, or PDX, used to treat peripheral T-cell lymphoma, a fast-spreading cancer that affects white blood cells. Remember an orphan drug is one that treats a very rare condition. So the FDA usually fast tracks approval, the company gets exclusivity rights to the drug, and the sales usually bring in big, big money.
Exclusivity or not, though, PDX is the only treatment for peripheral T-cell lymphoma, so there’s no competition here anyway. President Obama’s plan for Medicare, where the government will negotiate bulk drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies, could hurt those with similar treatments, but not Allos. And orphan drugs in Europe, where the government already negotiates prices, usually cost the same as, if not more than, those in the U.S. Besides, PDX has been proven to extend patients’ lives. Don’t expect the White House to put a price on that.
On Feb. 4, Allos released data that showed patients who had previously not responded to treatment were responding to PDX, and for longer than expected. The stock popped as a result, and then the market’s decline took ALTH back down. Now ALTH is two points below where it was before the data release, giving investors a great entry point.
Cramer expects Allos to file for final FDA approval by the end of June, which means the drug could be on the market by year’s end. Worst-case scenario, analysts have said, PDX is available to the public by 2010. Sales for the drug could reach as high as $400 million a year, with the chance for even better numbers given PDX’s potential for off-label uses, much like Genentech’s
[DNA 85.55 -1.93 (-2.21%) ]",

Avastin. PDX is more potent than other chemotherapy drugs, so there’s a good chance it could treat other cancers.
Allos makes a great takeover target as well. The company’s a natural fit for any big-time firm with a blood cancer franchise, such as Celgene
got a bid.
Allos reports Tuesday, March 3, so Cramer cautioned against buying before then. The company has no sales yet, so management offer clues as to whether the company’s still on track and possibly even date-release dates on the horizon.
ALTH is a buy at $6, Cramer said, but no more. At $7, the deal doesn’t work. Investors who want in should remember to be patient and use limit orders.

2. FDO 27.44 A SHARE AS OF 3/1 , TARGET PRICE 41.00 by 9/09

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. operates a chain of more than 6,500 general merchandise retail discount stores in 44 states, providing consumers with a selection of merchandise in neighborhood stores. The Company’s merchandise assortment includes consumables, home products, apparel and accessories, and seasonal and electronics. The Company’s products include apparel, food, cleaning and paper products, home decor, beauty and health aids, toys, pet products, automotive products, domestics, seasonal goods and electronics. With a Dividend of .14 a share , is a great buy in this market !In the same boat as Wal-Mart, discount retailers are the some of the few companies showed success in 2008. FDO's stock price gained 36% in 2008.Recession time will prompt more people to go to the dollar stores to $ave MONEY!!!! Due to people needing to cut back, people are going to eventually go from Walmart to Family Dollar as both are in the same merchant category and serve much the same purpose, but Family Dollar seems to undercut Walmart's prices for many items... but does so at a cost: lack of the wide range of products that Walmart does, but from what I've seen, this doesn't effect business one bit.Not bad on debt, fairly good P/E. I'm seeing a lot more "recession fashion" and how-to's on living more cheaply....this company is made for these times.I do about 75% of my regular shopping there (condiments, small food, bread, milk, some clothes.) The stores should do well in hard times.family Dollar Stores . . . need I say more?