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   <title>The Long War Journal Threat Matrix</title>
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   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix/15</id>
   <updated>2012-05-30T22:00:40Z</updated>
   
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<atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix" /><feedburner:info uri="longwarjournalthreatmatrix" /><atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="hub" href="http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/" /><entry>
   <title>Iraqi police to take over security responsibility in Baghdad</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/GZZt7wiYvAA/iraqi_police_to_take_responsib.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44413</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-30T18:16:56Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-30T22:00:40Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The country moves closer to normality as responsibility for security in Baghdad is handed over from the Iraqi Army to the police.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>CJ Radin</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="4" label="Iraq" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[Reaching a major milestone, the Iraqi interior ministry announced yesterday that the Iraqi Army would <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/05/29/217346.html?PHPSESSID=8usdr67lacdbnk0dap36v1c4c6">turn over responsibility</a> for security in the capital of Baghdad to the Iraqi police in July. Iraqi Army units within Baghdad will then redeploy to positions outside of Baghdad.

Traditionally, a police force is tasked with providing for a country's internal security, and its army is tasked with providing security against external threats. In Iraq, however, the Iraqi Army has had responsibility for internal security throughout the country alongside the Iraqi police. This was necessary because the police were insufficiently trained and equipped to handle the level of insurgent violence. But after the surge of US forces in 2007, the violence level diminished significantly. And it has remained low despite the departure of US forces at the end of 2011. 

The transfer of security responsibility to the police is particularly notable given that Baghdad is home to a large portion of Iraq's population. The capital city has also seen some of the worst violence of the insurgency. 

The transfer in Baghdad constitutes the first step in the transition process. The Iraqi interior ministry expects to turn over additional cities to the police during the summer. Eventually the police will have to take responsibility for internal security for the entire country in order to allow the Army to transition to the normal role of providing for the country's external security.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Afghan NDS thwarts terror plot near Kabul airport, arrests Taliban commander</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/Apea-afy-iU/afghan_nds_thwarts_terror_plot.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44353</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-28T14:15:28Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-28T16:08:20Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Afghan intelligence operatives captured five suspected Taliban suicide bombers and 560 kilograms of explosives on the outskirts of Kabul's international airport; they also  arrested a Taliban leader in Helmand province. </summary>
   <author>
      <name>LWJ Staff</name>
      
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[A day after Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) officials broke up a Taliban plot to attack the United States Agency for International Aid (USAID) office in eastern Nangarhar province, NDS operatives captured five suspected Taliban insurgents and 560 kilograms of explosives packed into a minivan near the outskirts of Kabul International Airport. The raid took place around May 23; it remains unclear if the insurgents had intended to attack the airport. 

The successful raid marks the second time NDS officials have prevented a terror assault in the vicinity of the sprawling international airport grounds in Kabul. Last summer, NDS broke up a series of Taliban and Haqqani Network terror plots that sought to wreak havoc in Kabul, including a complex assault against the airport grounds. [See <em>Threat Matri</em>x, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/07/nds_smashes_haqqani_network_pl.php">NDS smashes Haqqani Network plots in Kabul</a>.]

In addition, NDS officials in Helmand province <a href="http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/2012/05/28/156-Two-local-Taliban-leaders-detained-in-S-Afghanistan-.html">announced</a> on May 27 that Afghan authorities arrested a "senior Taliban leader Nematullah" during a recent operation. Nematullah was allegedly responsible for conducting attacks in the greater Lashkar Gah area. NDS officials also confiscated a variety of weapons and communications equipment during the operation that nabbed Nematullah. 

NDS has been aggressively pursuing Taliban leaders and suspected Taliban and Haqqani Network cells throughout Afghanistan, in an effort to further erode the military capabilities of the insurgent infrastructure and prevent major terrorist attacks both within the greater Kabul city area and in other urban centers across the country. In early May, the Taliban announced the launch of their spring offensive, dubbed <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/05/taliban_announce_beg_1.php"><em>Al-Farooq</em></a>, and threatened to target foreign and Afghan security forces, Afghan political and government officials, the Afghan High Peace Council, and anti-Taliban militias.

For previous coverage of NDS operations, see the following <em>Long War Journal</em>  and <em>Threat Matrix</em> reports:

<blockquote><ul>
	<li><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/07/nds_smashes_haqqani_network_pl.php">NDS smashes Haqqani Network plots in Kabul</a>, July 31, 2011</li>
</ul>
<ul>
	<li><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/08/elite_afghan_force_destroys_in.php">Elite Afghan force destroys insurgent explosives cache</a>, Aug. 22, 2011</li>
</ul>
<ul>
	<li><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/08/nds_dismantles_kabul_attack_ne.php">NDS dismantles Kabul Attack Network cell</a>, Aug. 28, 2011</li>
</ul>
<ul>
	<li><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/09/haqqani_network_dire.php">Haqqani Network directed Kabul hotel assault by phone from Pakistan</a>, Sept. 3, 2011 </li>
</ul>
<ul>
	<li><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/09/afghan_nds_continues_crackdown.php">Afghan NDS continues crackdown on counterfeit uniforms</a>, Sept. 5, 2011</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/09/afghan_intelligence.php">Afghan intelligence operations take on significant role</a>, Sept. 21, 2011</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href= "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/02/afghan_intelligence_1.php#ixzz1trAHLQMS">Afghan intelligence captures 3 members of northern assassination cell</a>, Feb. 7 2012</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> <a href= "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/04/new_york_times_qari.php#ixzz1trB9XI3X">Afghan intelligence seizes 11 tons of explosives, thwarts additional terror plots</a>, April 21, 2012</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/05/afghan_intelligence_thwarts_th.php">Afghan intelligence thwarts 3rd major terror plot in Kabul</a>, May 3, 2012 </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href= "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/05/afghan_nds_breaks_up.php#ixzz1wAsMFkU2">Afghan NDS breaks up multiple terror plots across Afghanistan</a>, May 22, 2012 </li>
</ul>
</blockquote>]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Iran admits to sending troops to Syria</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/Umkguio7I-k/iran_admits_to_sending_troops.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44345</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-27T21:42:08Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-28T02:45:35Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The deputy commander of Iran's Qods Force claimed that the Iranian intervention in Syria has saved lives.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>CJ Radin</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="22" label="Iran" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="80" label="Syria" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[Today Iran <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4234608,00.html">admitted to sending troops</a> to Syria to help in suppressing pro-democracy demonstrations. General Ismail Kuoni, deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Qods Force, attempted to justify the action by claiming it saved lives. "If the Islamic Republic was not present in Syria, the massacre of civilians would have been twice as bad," he asserted, according to <em>Ynetnews</em>, which saw the article before it was removed.

The general went on to imply that most civilians had been killed by Syrian rebels, not by Syrian government forces. "Iran had physically and non-physically stopped the rebels from killing many more among the Syrian people," he said.

The statements were later removed from the website of Iran's <em>ISNA</em>. A prudent move considering the <a href="http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/displayarticle.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2012/May/middleeast_May310.xml&section=middleeast&col=">fallout</a> from the recent <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/05/massacre_in_syria_kills_90_inc.php">massacre of 90 people in the town of Houla, including 32 children</a>, by the supporters of President Assad's regime.
]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Massacre in Syria kills 90, including 32 children</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/Q4fyXZDR7k0/massacre_in_syria_kills_90_inc.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44344</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-27T21:19:43Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-28T02:23:23Z</updated>
   
   <summary>In the worst episode in Syria's 14 months of violence, over 90 people, including 32 children, were killed in a brutal attack on a village in northern Syria. The attack sparked international condemnation. </summary>
   <author>
      <name>CJ Radin</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="80" label="Syria" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[In what is being described as a brutal atrocity, Syrian pro-government forces attacked the village of Houla in Homs province in central Syria over the weekend, <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-killings-20120527,0,675051.story"> killing</a> more than 90 people, including 32 children. 

Pro-government forces first used tanks, mortars, and heavy machine guns to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/assads-troops-kill-at-least-90-people-in-homs-7791095.html">shell the village</a>. Then fighters <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/middleeast/syrian-activists-claim-death-toll-in-village-soars.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast">stormed the village and killed survivors.</a> Victims included entire families in their homes. Pictures showed children with bullet holes in their temples; others had their throats cut. The attack occurred despite the presence of UN observers in Syria as part of a UN-sponsored peace plan. 

The deaths were <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/exclusive-dispatch-assad-blamed-for-massacre-of-the-innocents-7791507.html">confirmed</a> by General Robert Mood, the head of the UN team of 300 observers. "My patrols went into the village. I can verify that they counted 32 children under 10 killed. In addition, there were more than 60 adults dead." UN observers also <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-syria-killings-idUSBRE84O14Q20120526">confirmed</a> the use of artillery and tank shells. 

The Syrian government <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/27/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=imi_c1">denied responsibility</a> for the attack. Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi called it "the tsunami of lies." He denied that the Syrian armed forces were responsible and accused Al Qaeda. "Al Qaeda-linked terrorist groups committed two horrible massacres against a number of families in the countryside of Homs province." Makdissi also rejected the idea of an armed opposition in the country. "There is no armed opposition in Syria. There is either an intellectual opposition, and we welcome their participation in national dialogue, or there are armed terrorist gangs that refuse the political resolution."  

<strong>International condemnation</strong>

The international community <a href="http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/displayarticle.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2012/May/middleeast_May310.xml&section=middleeast&col=">condemned</a> the attack. The UN Secretary General and the Arab league's UN envoy jointly condemned the "appalling and brutal crime," saying "[t]hose responsible for perpetrating this crime must be held to account." EU foreign policy minister Catherine Ashton was "appalled by the reports of the brutal massacre." US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called it an "atrocity" and said Assad's "rule by murder and fear must end." French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius condemned "the atrocities committed daily by Bashar Al Assad on his own people," and said that "[w]ith these new crimes his murderous regime plunges Syria further into horror and threatens regional stability." German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said he was "shocked and horrified" at the killings.

The rebels' Free Syrian Army warned that it would <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/27/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=imi_c1">no longer be committed</a> to the UN-sponsored peace plan unless there was swift UN intervention to protect civilians. Britain stated that it was in urgent talks with allied nations on "a strong international response." France promised <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-syria-unrest-france-idUSBRE84P07K20120526">to host</a> a Friends of Syria meeting later this week. 

At the same time, US President Obama<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/middleeast/us-seeks-russias-help-in-removing-assad-in-syria.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast"> is in talks </a>with Russia over a plan that would oust President Assad. The plan calls for a negotiated political settlement that would satisfy Syrian opposition groups but that could leave parts of President Assad's government intact. The success of the plan hinges on the agreement of Russia, one of Mr. Assad's few remaining allies.
]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>ISAF targets IMU facilitator in Faryab</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/hRvGZ8lzCs8/isaf_targets_imu_facilitator_i.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44338</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-27T18:55:57Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-27T20:12:26Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ISAF has targeted the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan six times in Faryab since mid-March.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="6" label="Afghanistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="701" label="Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="12" label="Pakistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="24" label="Taliban" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[Coalition and Afghan forces again targeted a leader of the al Qaeda-linked Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan during a raid in the northwestern province of Faryab. <a href="http://www.dvidshub.net/news/89050/isaf-joint-command-morning-operational-update">From the ISAF press release</a>: 

<blockquote>In Khwajah Sabz Posh district, Faryab province, an Afghan and coalition security force conducted an operation to detain an Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan facilitator today. The facilitator distributes funds, weapons and other equipment between IMU cells and manages the recruitment and movement of IMU insurgents for attacks against Afghan and coalition troops throughout Faryab province. As a result of this operation, the security force detained multiple suspected insurgents.</blockquote>

ISAF special operations forces have now conducted six raids against the IMU in Faryab this year; all of the raids have occurred since mid-March. The IMU's last two emirs for Afghanistan, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/03/isaf_afghan_forces_k_3.php">Makhdum Nusrat</a> and <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/04/special_operation_fo.php">Osmani Sahib</a>, were killed during those raids.

The IMU is known to have a presence in the districts of Almar, Khwajah Sabz Posh, Maimana, and Shirin Tagab, or four of the province's 12 districts.

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is a key ally of al Qaeda and the Taliban, and supports operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as plots attacks in Europe. The IMU is known to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan and has integrated into the Taliban's shadow government in the north [for more information on the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, see <em>LWJ</em> report, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/11/imu_cleric_urges_pak.php">IMU cleric urges Pakistanis to continue sheltering jihadis in Waziristan</a>].]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Shabaab abandons Afgoye as Somali, African Union troops advance</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/cILDNIhMmQI/shabaab_abandons_afgoye_as_som.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44307</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-26T17:27:47Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-26T18:07:10Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The city served as a major base outside of Mogadishu and meeting point for top Shabaab leaders. </summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="329" label="Shabaab" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="38" label="Somalia" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[Shabaab, al Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, has lost control of another major stronghold as African Union and Somali troops press their offensive against the terror group. Today Shabaab abandoned Afgoye, a city just 20 miles west of Mogadishu that has been used as a base to attack the capital. <a href="http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_AMISOM_and_TFG_forces_capture_town_des.shtml">From <em>Garowe Online</em></a>:

<blockquote>Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces and African Union's AMISOM troops entered the town of Afgoye midday Friday and captured the town without any casualties.

According to government sources, Al Shabaab insurgents fled the town the night before after Somali and AMISOM forces captured the town of Elesha Biyaha and were en route to Afgoye. 

"Around midday prayers, our forces entered the town of Afgoye which we are in complete control of, after Al Shabaab agents fled the night before," said Gen. Abdullahi Anood, a TFG General.

According to local sources, Al Shabaab agents fled north to Marko a port city and base for Al Shabaab in southern Somalia.</blockquote>

Shabaab spokesman Sheik Abdiaziz Abu Musab claimed that his forces "tactically withdrew" from Afgoye. <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/05/2012526102838885298.html">From <em>Al Jazeera</em></a>: 

<blockquote>"The mujahedeen fighters tactically withdrew from some positions but that does not represent a defeat," Musab added. "We have already cut their supply routes and inflicted heavy losses on the enemy."</blockquote>

Shabaab said the exact same thing when its forces withdrew from Mogadishu late last summer. Shabaab has since resorted to IED and suicide attacks, assassinations, and ambushes in the capital.

Afgoye served as a major meeting place for senior Shabaab leaders. Back in May 2011, the top leadership of Shabaab, including Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansour, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, and American-born Omar Hammami <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/05/american_shabaab_com_1.php">held a daylong meeting to commemorate the death of Osama bin Laden</a>.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Only in Pakistan...</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/3jk7vqGhgUY/only_in_pakistan.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44249</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-23T23:57:08Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-24T05:55:20Z</updated>
   
   <summary>...can the man who helped the US kill Osama bin Laden get 33 years in prison, while terrorists like Hafiz Saeed walk free.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="12" label="Pakistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[Pakistan has moved swiftly against the doctor who helped the CIA find Osama bin Laden. Just over one year after Osama bin Laden was killed, Pakistan has convicted Dr. Shakil Afridi for "anti-state activities" for aiding in the death of the terror leader. <a href="http://dawn.com/2012/05/23/shakil-afridi-imprisoned-for-helping-cia-find-bin-laden/">From <em>Dawn</em></a>:

<blockquote>A Pakistani physician accused of assisting the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in obtaining DNA samples of Osama Bin Laden through a fake vaccination campaign was, on Wednesday, convicted for involvement in anti-state activities by a tribal court, a senior government official said.

"Dr Shakil Afridi was produced before a four-member tribal court Wednesday morning and was sentenced to 33 years in prison and also given a 3,20,000-rupee fine," Political Agent, Khyber tribal region, Mutahir Zeb Khan told Dawn.

Soon after his conviction, Afridi was sent to the Central Prison in Peshawar.

The court was headed by a deputy administrator responsible for Bara region.

Afridi was charged under the British-time Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) that unlike the Pakistan Criminal Code (CPRC), does not carry death penalty for high treason.</blockquote>

Meanwhile, four years after the terror assault on Mumbai that killed 165 people, which was launched from Pakistani soil by the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and despite ample evidence handed over by the Indian government, not a single person has been convicted for the terror attack. Hafiz Saeed, the emir of the Lashkar-e-Taiba who has been implicated in the Mumbai attack and other terror assaults, not only walks free, but is a celebrity in Pakistan. He is feted by politicians, generals, and the media, despite a $10 million reward offered by the US government for information leading to his arrest and conviction. 

And only in Pakistan can the men who were responsible for the Lal Masjid insurrection in the heart of Islamabad, in which more than 100 people were killed, walk free. And to add insult to injury, the Pakistani Supreme Court is demanding that the government move quickly to rebuild the Jamia Hafsa, the adjoining madrassa that was illegally built on government land and torn down in 2007. Read <a href="http://tribune.com.pk/story/381761/lal-masjid-rewarding-an-insurrection/">this article by Pervez Hoodbhoy at <em>The Express Tribune</em></a> for more information.

I could go on and explore the irony of Pakistan's closing the NATO supply routes after Pakistani troops initiated the firefight in November 2011 that resulted in the deaths of 24 of its troops, or Pakistan's demands that the US continue to fund Pakistani military operations while its military and intelligence service continue to support the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as various jihadist groups, etc., but won't.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Al Nusrah front claims latest suicide attack in Syria</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/c8b3qT3TcA4/al_nusrah_front_claims_latest.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44179</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-21T14:42:10Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-21T15:16:34Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The Syrian terror group named the suicide bomber and said "the blessed operations will continue."</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="2640" label="Al Nusrah Front" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="80" label="Syria" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[The Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant has claimed yet another suicide attack in Syria. The group released a statement today claiming credit for<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/05/suicide_bomber_kills_9_in_syri.php"> the May 19 suicide attack on Syrian intelligence services</a> in Deir al-Zor. The Al Nusrah Front, which has been described as an al Qaeda-linked jihadist group in Syria, said the attack was designed to avenge "the aggression of the regime's dogs in Deir al-Zor." Below is an excerpt from the statement, which was translated by the SITE Intelligence Group. Al Nusrah identified the suicide bomber, and said it attempts to reduce civilian casualties but will continue to carry out suicide attacks:

<blockquote>The martyrdom-seeker Abu Mu'awiyyah al-Forati, may Allah accept him, took off with his explosives-laden vehicle to penetrate their fortresses in front of their eyes through the parking gate. By the grace of Allah, his blood was shed while destroying these two structures over the heads of those inside...

...no civilians as far as we know fell in this martyrdom-seeking operation, and this is something that the Al Nusra Front is keen to have as much as possible. Many operations were canceled due to the presence of innocent people in the targeted site.

The blessed operations will continue in order to cleanse the land of the Levant from the filth of the Nusayris [Alawites] and to grant relief to the Sunnis from their oppression.</blockquote>

Interestingly enough, Al Nusrah has not claimed credit for the May 10 double suicide attack in Damascus that killed 55 people. The terror group <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/05/al_nusrah_front_denies_validit.php">denied the authenticity</a> of a video claiming credit for the attack that was released in its name, but also did not deny or accept credit for that attack.

Al Nusrah has now claimed credit for four suicide attacks in Syria, as well other conventional attacks, to include ambushes and IED strikes.

]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>The Taliban on US estimates of al Qaeda strength in Afghanistan</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/ufPN3HxCCto/the_taliban_on_us_estimates_on.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44167</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-20T17:51:45Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-20T18:26:42Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The Taliban said the US and NATO should leave Afghanistan since the US estimates that only 50 al Qaeda fighters remain in country.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="6" label="Afghanistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="24" label="Taliban" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[In a statement released today on Voice of Jihad, the Taliban's propaganda website, the Afghan terror group threw back the often repeated estimate made by the US military and intelligence services on the strength of al Qaeda. The Taliban said that since the US estimates that only 50 al Qaeda members remain in Afghanistan, NATO forces should leave:

<blockquote>3. The American intelligence networks including the CIA state that members of Al-Qaida have all left Afghanistan and that there are not more than fifty left therefore the military presence of America is not for its own security but a long term strategy for turning our country and the region into its colony. The declaration of the new president of France, Francois Hollande, that all its troops will be removed from Afghanistan at the end of this year is a decision based on realities and a reflection of the opinion of its nation. We call upon all the other NATO member countries to avoid working for the political interests of American officials and answer the call of your own people by immediately removing all your troops from Afghanistan.</blockquote>

Note that the Taliban are not saying how many al Qaeda they believe are left in country, nor do they state that they have broken ties with the terror group. 

The US estimate on the number of al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan has remained static (at between 50 to 100 al Qaeda operatives) for the past three years. White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan <a href="http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/20/brennan-on-bin-laden-raid-and-dangerous-yemen/">repeated this claim yet again</a> at the end of April. For the past few years, the Obama administration has been asserting that al Qaeda has been defeated in Afghanistan and that accordingly it is time to leave. It was only a matter of time before the Taliban turned this rhetoric back on the US.

At <em>The Long War Journal</em> and <em>Threat Matrix</em>, we have repeatedly disputed this estimate. For the best summary on this, see <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/09/how_many_al_qaeda_fighters_are.php">How many al Qaeda fighters are in Afghanistan again?</a> It is from September 2011, but the same arguments still apply. Additionally, see <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/05/bin_laden_orders_rel.php">Bin Laden advised relocation of some leaders to Afghanistan due to drone strikes in Waziristan</a>, for Osama bin Laden's view on moving al Qaeda fighters into Afghanistan in October 2010.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Suicide bomber kills 9 in Syria</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/fTqH_EfYhXw/suicide_bomber_kills_9_in_syri.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44149</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-19T18:53:23Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-19T19:55:48Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The suicide attack targeted an intelligence headquarters in Deir al-Zor.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="2640" label="Al Nusrah Front" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="80" label="Syria" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[As Syria's civil war continues, the country's security forces have been hit with yet another suicide attack. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/19/us-syria-carbomb-idUSBRE84I04F20120519">From <em>Reuters</em></a>:

<blockquote>The official SANA news agency said the blast had been the work of a suicide bomber, and had killed nine and wounded about 100, including guards, at what it called military installations. It said residences had been damaged.

State television broadcast footage of smoke rising over the city, pools of blood amid rubble, the damaged facades of buildings and twisted, smoking vehicles.

Opposition activists said the target was an intelligence base.

"It seems like a well-planned attack. The explosion hit the least guarded rear gate of the Military Intelligence complex ... where the operatives keep their cars," said one activist in Deir al-Zor.

State television called the blast part of a campaign funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to topple Assad.</blockquote>

No group has claimed responsibility for the suicide attack, but the likelihood is that it was executed by the Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, which has claimed credit for three other suicide attacks in the country. Although the group <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/05/al_nusrah_front_denies_validit.php">renounced a video</a> that purported to be from Al Nusrah and that claimed credit for the twin suicide attacks in Damascus on May 10,  Al Nusrah also did not deny carrying out the attack and may claim credit for that attack in the future.

It is true that the Assad regime is eager to characterize the violence in Syria as the work of al Qaeda backed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, as well as Lebanese Sunnis. But it is also true that Syria has been penetrated by Islamist terror groups. The Al Nusrah Front, despite claims by the Syrian Free Army and other dissidents that it is merely a front for Syrian intelligence, is a legitimate Islamist terror group. Al Nusrah has the backing of the established jihadist Internet forums, which indicates that the administrators are well aware of the group and its leadership. 

The Syrian government has for years sponsored Sunni terror groups, such as Al Qaeda in Iraq, by allowing them to operate inside its borders, run training camps, and funnel foreign fighters, cash, and weapons to wage jihad in Iraq. While Al Nusrah hasn't been directly linked to al Qaeda in Iraq, it is very likely that elements of the same network that was used to conduct terror attacks inside Iraq have now been turned against the network's former state sponsor.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Mullah Dadullah Front: a not-so-new Afghan Taliban terror group</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/8AZCBg94d8w/mullah_dadullah_front_a_not-so.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44148</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-19T18:09:16Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-19T20:07:32Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The al Qaeda-linked Taliban subgroup has been conducting assassinations and suicide assaults in the Afghan south for years.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="6" label="Afghanistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="1265" label="Mullah Dadullah Front" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="24" label="Taliban" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/world/asia/in-afghanistan-new-insurgent-group-emerges.html">This article in <em>The New York Times</em></a> would have you believe that the Mullah Dadullah Front is a newly created terror group that suddenly popped up in Afghanistan:

<blockquote>A new, more radical insurgent group has begun a campaign aimed at terrorizing both Afghan officials and moderate insurgents, according to Afghan officials.

While the Taliban publicly disavowed the new group, Afghan intelligence officials depicted it as a faction of the Taliban that is "behind the current campaign of psychological and terror attacks," as one official put it.

Calling itself the Mullah Dadullah Front, after a notoriously bloodthirsty Taliban commander who was killed in 2007 in a joint operation, people claiming to represent the group have in recent days sent text messages and made telephone calls to numerous members of the Afghan Parliament, threatening them with suicide attacks if they vote to ratify the strategic partnership agreement between Afghanistan and the United States.</blockquote>

<em>The Long War Journal </em><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/financier_for_mullah.php">first reported on the Mullah Dadullah Front on Dec. 4, 2010</a>, when ISAF named the group when it targeted one of its financiers. We even identified the top leader of the Mullah Dadullah Front as well as the group's spokesman:

<blockquote>The Mullah Dadullah Lang Allegiance is better known as the Mullah Dadullah Mahaz, or Mullah Dadullah Front. It is named after Mullah Dadullah Lang, a popular but brutal and effective commander, who was <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/05/mullah_dadullah_tali.php">killed by British special forces</a> in Helmand province in May 2007. Dadullah was responsible for embracing al Qaeda's ideology of waging global jihad, and incorporated al Qaeda tactics, including the use of suicide bombers, on the battlefield.

The Mullah Dadullah Front operates largely in the southern Afghan provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, and Uruzgan, and is considered the most effective and dangerous Taliban group in the region. The group has been active in attempting to sabotage negotiations between the Afghan government and lower-level Taliban leaders and fighters in the south.

Although ISAF did not name the leader of the Mullah Dadullah Front, US military and intelligence officials told <em>The Long War Journal</em> that it is led by none other than Mullah Adbul Qayoum Zakir, the former Guantanamo Bay detainee who has since been promoted as the Taliban's top military commander. He is considered to be one of the most radical Taliban commanders and is closely allied with al Qaeda.

Zakir, who is also known as Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul, was released from US custody in December 2007, and was then promptly freed by the Afghan government [see <em>LWJ</em> report, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/03/the_talibans_surge_c.php">The Taliban's surge commander was Gitmo detainee</a>]. Zakir immediately returned to the Taliban and quickly rose in the ranks. This spring, Zakir was designated as one of two Taliban commanders to replace Mullah Baradar, Mullah Omar's former deputy and the second in command of the Taliban who was put into protective custody by Pakistan's intelligence service earlier this year. Zakir now commands all military operations in Afghanistan.

Zakir and other Taliban leaders operate from the Pakistani border city of Chaman in Baluchistan, as the location shields them from US and NATO operations.

The spokesman for the Mullah Dadullah Front has been identified as Barialay Rahbarmal. In mid-October, Rahbarmal claimed that the Taliban had killed seven Afghan soldiers in the Marja area of Helmand province using a new type of hand grenade. Rahbarmal made the claim to <a href="http://www.alqalamonline.com">Al Qalam</a>, a jihadist website run by the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terror group that supports al Qaeda and is backed by Pakistan's military and intelligence services.</blockquote>

Over the past 18 months, <em>LWJ</em> has documented multiple assassinations and suicide assaults in the south that have been linked to the Mullah Dadullah Front. <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/tags/Mullah%20Dadullah%20Front/journal/">Click here</a> and <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/tags/Mullah%20Dadullah%20Front/threat-matrix/">here</a> for a list of the articles on the Mullah Dadullah Front.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Omar Hammami on drone strikes</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/NAmSSY5vuPU/omar_hammami_on_drone_strikes.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44122</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-18T17:33:26Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-18T19:40:41Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The American jihadist commander in Somalia said US airstrikes do not impact Shabaab's fight against the Somali government and have not caused rifts between "the global element of this Jihaad from the local element."</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="329" label="Shabaab" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="38" label="Somalia" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="218" label="United States" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[At the end of part one of the recently released <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/05/omar_hammami_release.php">autobiography of American jihadist Omar Hammami</a>, he addresses a question about US airstrikes in Somalia and their effectiveness.

Hammami's response is interesting. He says the strikes have not had an effect on the fighting between Shabaab and the Somali government, and that it is what is on the ground that counts (he's basically saying you can't win a war via airpower alone). He also states that although the main purpose of the strikes is to cause a rift between "the global element of this Jihaad from the local element," the strikes are having the opposite effect.

 Here is the question, and his answer:

<blockquote>32.1) Have they given America any advantage? Have the Mujahideen been able to  effectively deal with this development? Are the drone strikes accurate, or do they occasionally result in civilian casualties? Please explain.

The drones haven't really changed anything on the ground as far as the basic power struggle between the TFG and the Mujaahidiin. The only aim of these attacks is to separate the global element of this Jihaad from the local element. They just want to kill off every white Muhaajir they can. It goes without saying that lots of collateral damage will only unite the people against the Americans, so they try to make our departure as unnoticeable to the populace as possible.

Like I said before, there have been lots of "cases" in the past few years, but the "accuracy" is only because of who's on the ground and not because of what is in the air.</blockquote>]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Taliban kill 6 Afghan policemen, civilian in suicide assault in Farah</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/6rdzcwl12II/taliban_kill_6_afghan_policeme.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44111</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-18T00:01:01Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-18T01:29:44Z</updated>
   
   <summary>A four-man suicide assault team struck the governor's compound in Farah City.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="6" label="Afghanistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="24" label="Taliban" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[The Taliban executed a suicide assault on the governor's compound in the western Afghan province of Farah today. Six policemen, a civilian, and four members of the suicide assault team were killed during the attack, which lasted for more than two hours. <a href="http://tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/6251-6-police-1-civilian-killed-in-farah-governors-compound-attack">From <em>TOLONews</em></a>: 

<blockquote>Six Afghan police and one civilian were killed in an attack on the governor's compound in western Farah province on Thursday morning, local officials said.

Four men armed with explosives and automatic rifles stormed the compound around 10:30 am, breaking in after one of them detonated his explosives at the gate of the compound, provincial police chief Shamsul Rahman Zahid said.

The clash ended after nearly two hours with all four attackers dead, according to police spokesman in western Afghanistan Abdul Raouf Ahmadi.

A second bomber blew himself up inside the compound and the last two were killed during the clash with the Afghan security troops, Ahmadi told <em>TOLOnews</em>.

"The clash ended after nearly two hours as more security forces arrived and secured the compound," he said.

Provincial governor was at the compound, but he was not hurt in the attack, he added.</blockquote>

On their website, Voice of Jihad, the Taliban <a href="http://shahamat-english.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18026:complete-report-about-farah-governor-house-martyrdom-operation&catid=1:news&Itemid=2">claimed credit for the attack</a>. The Taliban said 13 Afghan security personnel were killed, named the four "martyrs," and claimed that two others involved in the attack had escaped:

<blockquote>According to details, the attack was carried out by 4 martyrdom seeking Mujahideen (Mahmood from Zabul, Rafeeq from Uruzgan and Ahmadullah and Abdus Salam both from Farah province) armed with RPGs, PK machine guns, rifles, hand grenades and explosives vests who initially killed the hireling troops stationed at the assembly area and then made their way to the governor office where they took up positions and engaged the enemy.

It is said that 13 hireling troops and government officials including the secretary of the provincial governor were killed in the ensuing fighting whereas nearly 40 other enemy personnel which includes the deputy provincial governor (Younus) were wounded. The 4 martyrdom seeking Mujahideen later embraced martyrdom (may Allah accept them) while another 2 involved in the successful operation managed to safely leave the area.</blockquote>

Another Taliban suicide attack in western Afghanistan took place on April 28 in Zaranj, the capital of Nimroz province. A suicide bomber detonated a cart packed with explosives, killing a US Marine and wounding others. The Taliban then opened fire on the US and Afghan troops from nearby buildings. See <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/videos/2012/05/ambush_in_zaranj.php">Ambush in Zaranj</a> for more details on the attack. ]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Pakistani jihadists reported in northern Mali</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/y6DLb4Wg9p8/pakistani_jihadists_reported_i.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44084</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-16T20:57:29Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-16T21:51:48Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The mayor of Timbuktu said Pakistanis have infiltrated the city and are training al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb fighters.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="436" label="Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="223" label="Mali" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="12" label="Pakistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[<iframe width="550" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&amp;t=m&amp;ll=16.383391,-0.263672&amp;spn=29.2183,48.339844&amp;z=4&amp;output=embed"></iframe><br /><small><a href="http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&amp;t=m&amp;ll=16.383391,-0.263672&amp;spn=29.2183,48.339844&amp;z=4&amp;source=embed" style="color:#0000FF;text-align:left">View Larger Map</a></small>

Over the past two months, Tuareg rebels, backed by Islamist terror groups such as Ansar al Dine, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa, have seized control of northern Mali, including the cities of Timbuktu, Kidal, and Gao. During that same period there have been several reports that al Qaeda has moved to establish safe havens in the region. Yesterday, <a href="http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2012/05/15/feature-02"><em>Magharebia</em> published a must-read piece </a>on how foreign jihadists have entered northern Mali to train and advise al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb fighters in Timbuktu. The mayor of Timbuktu is quoted as saying Pakistanis have indeed infiltrated his city. From <em>Magharebia</em>:

<blockquote>Timbuktu mayor Hallé Ousman confirmed the news during an exclusive telephone interview with Magharebia.

"There are actually many Pakistani nationals in Timbuktu, as well as others from many other nationalities, the mayor said. "I personally saw them today going around streets, neighbourhoods and markets. However, they haven't yet started actual communication and direct conversation with residents."

"As to their mission, it became clear to residents several weeks ago," Ousman added. "It is represented in training the new recruits who al-Qaeda and other armed groups in town are enlisting."

"The situation has become very dangerous," he concluded. "In Timbuktu, we refuse that our city be turned into a scene for the terrorist acts that foreign groups are engaged in, given that they threaten our stability and make our sons susceptible to deviation."</blockquote>

In addition to al Qaeda elements from Afghanistan and Pakistan, Boko Haram fighters from Nigeria are also said to have moved into northern Mali, which one analyst compared to Afghanistan and Pakistan:

<blockquote>Analyst Sid Ahmed Ould Tfeil explained that "the spread of foreign nationals and elements from several identities in areas controlled by al-Qaeda is one of the priorities for the terrorist group which considers itself to be above all ethnic and national considerations."

"It believes that wherever the necessary conditions and circumstances of jihad are available, it becomes a duty for jihadists to move to that place to provide support," he said.

"The condition of Timbuktu today is largely similar to that of Afghanistan and Pakistan which in the early 1990s were centres for attracting jihadists from around the world to raise al-Qaeda flag," Ould Tfeil added. "Northern Mali today is the next alternative for Afghanistan where the terrorists have suffered heavy losses before and after the killing of Bin Laden because of the role played by drones and international forces in countering terrorism there."

"A few days after the fall of northern Mali, Boko Haram elements came from Nigeria," he said.

"Now elements from Pakistan and Afghanistan are coming, and elements from Somalia's Shabaab al-Mujahideen may come within the next days," he predicted. "This is in addition to the Maghreb elements who are originally in the region."</blockquote>

<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/chaos-in-the-sahel-as-situation-in-mali-deteriorates-a-832309.html"><em>Speigel</em> noted</a> days ago that a vast area in the Sahel has now fallen under terrorist control:

<blockquote>Overnight, the withdrawal of government authority in Mali has rendered ungovernable an area four times the size of France, spread across the Sahara Desert and the Sahel zone. Islamist groups now move nearly unchallenged across a territory that stretches from Tindouf in western Algeria to the border between Libya and Chad in the east, and into the northern part of Nigeria to the south. These groups move weapons and drugs, take hostages and plan attacks.</blockquote>

Northern Mali is but the latest al Qaeda haven to emerge over the past several years. It joins Yemen, Somali, the Egyptian Sinai, and Syria as the new fronts in The Long War. ]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Taliban video of Bannu jailbreak sold in Pakistani markets</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/LongWarJournalThreatMatrix/~3/QNQd7PmyEj8/taliban_video_on_bannu_jailbre.php" />
   <id>tag:www.longwarjournal.org,2012:/threat-matrix//15.44064</id>
   
   <published>2012-05-16T04:16:37Z</published>
   <updated>2012-05-16T04:36:53Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Hakeemullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman gathered with 150 Taliban fighters to plan and execute the April 15 jailbreak.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Bill Roggio</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="191" label="Al Qaeda" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="12" label="Pakistan" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="24" label="Taliban" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/">
      <![CDATA[<a href="http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?newsid=192964&catname=1">According to the <em>International News Network</em></a>, the Pakistani Taliban are selling a video of <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/04/pakistani_taliban_as_1.php">the Bannu jailbreak</a> that freed 384 prisoners, including Adnan Rasheed, one of the would-be assassins of former President Pervez Musharraf [emphasis below is mine]:

<blockquote>Taliban have released the video of Bannu jail attack in which leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Hakeemullah Mehsud is briefing his fighters' squad. 

Tape also contains messages of Adnan Rasheed who was allegedly involved in plotting the murder of former president Parvez Musharraf.

A 34 minutes video is being sold openly in various areas of North Waziristan and South Waziristan in which Hakeemullah Mehsud is briefing his warrior's team through map containing different routes leading towards Bannu jail and also briefing the inside situation of the jail.

<strong>The video tape shows some 150 fighters including Hakeemullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman gathered at one place and form a strategy to assault the jail</strong> and attacked the jail with heavy weaponry without facing any hurdle from police side. Other scenes after the attack are also present in the tape having top militants who managed to escape from the jail.</blockquote>

Clearly the top leaders of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan can gather with 150 fighters to plot and execute operations without fear of attack, despite Pakistan's military offensives in the tribal areas and the US drones hovering over North and South Waziristan. 

Additionally, it has been reported numerous times in the past that Hakeemullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman have been at odds with each other and even came to blows at the so-called "battle at the shura," where the two supposedly shot it out over who would succeed Baitullah Mehsud. The report <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/08/taliban_debunk_claim.php">was of course false</a>, and was debunked when <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/are_the_top_two_pakistani_tali.php">the two appeared together in a video</a>.

The rumors that the top two Pakistani Taliban leaders remain at odds and ready to kill each other persist, and will continue to do so, despite the release of videos such as the one described above.

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   </content>
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