In last night’s first round action at the Battle 4 Atlantis, the Texas Longhorns fell behind early against a Top 25 Texas A&M squad, and could never quite dig completely out of the hole. Despite multiple runs in the second half to get within one possession of the Aggies, Texas was repeatedly stifled by dagger threes and big plays from Texas A&M. As a result, the Longhorns fell into the loser’s bracket, setting up a rematch with Washington.

This is the second time the Longhorns and Huskies will play in less than two weeks, with both games coming outside of the United States. Texas has played its three games in three different countries and traveled more than 16,000 miles so far this season, with the Huskies logging more than 14,000 miles of their own.

The first meeting

The season opener, at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, was a painful affair. Both teams played very sloppy basketball and found it difficult to adjust the new emphasis on calling textbook fouls that had been ignored in years past. The teams combined for 62 fouls and shot 88 free throws in a game that rarely had a few clean possessions strung together.

After a very slow start from both teams, Washington eventually built a small first-half lead Texas managed to eliminate by the break. The Huskies again slowly built their lead throughout the second half, holding a nine-point edge with just over 11 minutes to play. Isaiah Taylor and Demarcus Holland combined for the next 15 Texas points, as the Longhorns trimmed the deficit to just one point with five minutes left.

It was a nip-and-tuck one-possession affair for nearly the entire remainder of the game, including a pair of lead changes, but a missed transition three and a missed second attempt by Javan Felix near the one-minute mark proved to be Texas’ last gasp. The Longhorns failed to score in the final 2:09 of the game, and the Huskies iced it away at the free-throw line for a 77-71 victory.

Texas was plagued by an inability to secure defensive rebounds and loose balls that seemed to be right within their grasp, particularly when they needed stops down the stretch. The Huskies reclaimed 49% of their missed shots on the day and turned that into 21 second-chance points. Although the Longhorns have a bigger, stronger frontcourt, the quickness and athleticism of the young Washington team proved invaluable when chasing down the ball.

Shot selection was also a major issue for the Longhorns, with the team frequently settling for very long threes without any attempt at dribble penetration or ball movement. Washington plays a pressure defense — which resulted in quite a few fouls during the season opener — and it seemed that the Longhorns were frustrated enough to take open shots whenever they presented themselves, regardless of whether or not those shots actually should have been taken in that situation.

On paper, Texas was the clear favorite heading into the first game. They played a very poor game and were still in a position to win in the final minutes, but ultimately came up short. The Longhorns are still favored by both Vegas and Pomeroy in tonight’s game, albeit by a smaller margin than the first time around. If Texas can improve on some of its very frustrating shortcomings from the Pac-12 China Game, they should be able to enact revenge tonight.

Keys to the Game

1) Attack against the pressure – The Husky defense has proven that the high foul count in Shanghai was not an outlier, as indicated by their season free-throw rate of 51.5%. That statistic means that Washington gives up more than one free throw for every two field goal attempts, a rate that is currently 301st out of 351 Division I teams. In yesterday’s game against Gonzaga, the Huskies actually posted a defensive free throw-rate of 91.7%, which is nearly one free throw given for every shot.

Texas found success against Washington when Taylor attacked, and they also found some very nice drives from Eric Davis and Demarcus Holland last night against Texas A&M when their ball movement gave the guards just enough space to blow by with a quick first step. Texas must not be frustrated by Washington’s pressure defense again tonight, and need to drive the ball immediately when they have an angle on the defender. When that angle isn’t there, quick ball movement will find them elsewhere, and will provide another opportunity for a slash to the rim.

In addition to earning extra trips to the line, relying on the backcourt may also help the Texas bigs, who have had issues establishing position without picking up offensive fouls. Rather than focus on pounding the ball down low and relying on Cameron Ridley and company to fight for position, repeatedly slashing to the rim should open things up for the bigs on dump-offs underneath, and hopefully keep them from riding pine thanks to offensive fouls.

2) Clean up the defensive glass – While the Longhorns clawed back against Washington in the second half of their first meeting, it seemed like every defensive stop was scuttled by a rebound that was snatched right out of a Texas player’s hands. Much of the Washington offense in their first four games has come from second-chance points, thanks to an offensive rebounding rate that is currently 5th-best in the nation.

Since many of the lost defensive rebounds seemed to be a result of being outworked or out-hustled, and not a result of repeatedly being out of position, it’s likely that Texas can make some improvements in that department tonight. The Huskies are not a great shooting team, and with so many freshman, they’ve also made some poor shot choices. If the Longhorns can win back more of the defensive boards tonight than they did in Shanghai, it will make a serious dent in Washington’s scoring chances.

3) Take advantage of Washington’s mistakes – In addition to bad shots, the Huskies have also made quite a few mistakes this year by just playing too quickly. The youngsters have thrown tons of errant passes in transition, with a fair number resulting in turnovers. They also tend to continue pushing when the break isn’t there, resulting in forced shots against a set defense. The poor shot selection is also a hidden form of turnover, as when the defense can win the rebound, those types of shots often lead to runouts the other way.

Washington had an incredibly rough start in Shanghai thanks to that sloppy play and an inability to finish some easy looks. Texas was unable to take advantage, however, and allowed Washington to claw their way to a lead midway through the first half. There will likely be quite a few freshman mistakes made by the Huskies tonight, so Texas must capitalize on them this time around. Whether that means extending a lead or charging back from a deficit, this Texas team cannot afford to stall out when Washington is giving them extra possessions.

The break-up of the old Big 12 was a messy and very public affair, full of flirtation with other conferences, grandstanding, and even court orders. As often happens with bitter endings of long relationships, partners swore to never see each other again. Historic rivalries like Kansas-Mizzou, Nebraska-OU, and Texas-Texas A&M went by the wayside.

For the Longhorns and Aggies, that has meant that the teams haven’t met in basketball or football since the Texas hoops team won their final conference match-up in February of 2012. Despite friends — the media, legislators, even that random drunk at your favorite watering hole — imploring the two to get back together, the programs have held staunchly to their insistence that they just won’t do it.

With bowl games and the SEC-Big 12 Challenge not renewing the Lone Star rivalry over the last three years, it finally came down to an exempt November basketball tournament to break the ice. Sure, it’s on a channel nobody ever watches, and yes, it’s more than a thousand miles from either campus. In a sports remake of Forgetting Sarah Marshall that subs the Bahamas for Hawai’i, your personal allegiance probably dictates which school you think is Peter Bretter and which is Sarah, but the important thing is that Texas and A&M will finally be playing something again over Thanksgiving weekend.

If you hated that intro, I appreciate you sticking with me. There was another angle involving dysfunctional families coming together at Thanksgiving, but you’ll have to settle for Jason Segel. On to the hoops…

By the numbers

Through their first four games, the Aggies have posted some eye-popping numbers. They haven’t played a team ranked higher than 242nd out of 351 Division I teams, according to Ken Pomeroy, so the Longhorns will provide the first real test for Texas A&M. Still, the Aggies managed to score in triple-digits in their first two ballgames, the first time the program had done that since the 90’s. Regardless of opponent, and even taking into account the offense-friendly rule changes, that’s still something worth noting.

In terms of raw offensive efficiency, the Aggies are currently ranked 11th in the nation, scoring 1.24 points per possession through their first four games. Their raw tempo clocks in just a hair under 75 possessions per game, while their effective field-goal percentage of 64.5% is third in the nation. That eFG is driven by a scorching three-point attack, with the Aggies draining more than 47% of their long-range attempts, and scoring nearly a third of their points from behind the arc.

To date, the only weaknesses of the Aggie offense have been ball control and free throws. Texas A&M has turned it over on 21% of their possessions, although they did manage to cough it up on just 13.4% of their possessions in their most recent game, against UNC-Asheville. From the charity stripe, the Aggies have made just 67% of their free throws, although that number is buoyed by an outlier performance against TAMU-Corpus Christi, in which the Ags made their first 22 freebies, and missed only a pair in the final minute.

Defensively, Texas A&M has been solid. It’s difficult to know how much stock to put into their defensive numbers, as they’ve played some teams that are clearly outclassed, but the eye test shows that they are well-coached. The Aggies have an adjusted defensive efficiency that is Top 25 in Division I, and they’ve forced opponents into a 23.3% turnover rate, also a number that ranks in the Top 25.

The only defensive number that has even been average through the first four games for A&M is a free-throw rate of 40.8%, meaning that the Aggies give opponents roughly two free throws for every five field goal attempts. The Longhorns are a much bigger group than any squad that Texas A&M has faced to date, so that trend is likely to continue tonight.

Meet the Aggies

Texas A&M has looked like a well-oiled machine in its first four games, thanks in large part to an August exhibition trip through Europe in which the team played four games. The Aggies have a solid mix of returning players and an excellent recruiting class, and the extra practices and competition gave the team a chance to work out the kinks.

As a result, the team already looks great on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Aggies immediately look up after closing out a defensive possession, hoping to find easy points in transition. If the defense can get back and stop Texas A&M from chalking up fast-break points, the Aggies move the ball quickly and try to catch their opponents scrambling on the secondary break. In possessions where the Aggies have to settle for half-court sets, they make smart passes to find their shooters open looks, or to set up their solid post players in good position.

That high-powered offense starts with senior transfer Anthony Collins (No. 11; 6’1″), who comes to College Station from USF. Although Collins is a quick point guard in a more traditional mold, he also can knock down the outside shot when defenders are napping on the perimeter. Collins is averaging one triple per game, and has made 66% of his limited long-range attempts this year.

With Collins at the point, that allows senior do-everything guard Alex Caruso (No. 21; 6’5″) to move to his more natural position off the ball. Caruso displayed fantastic court vision when he was the team’s point guard over the last few seasons, and he’s still making great feeds this year. Without the need to run the offense, he’s also shown an ability to get the corner and drive to the bucket, where he has a knack for finishing even the toughest of looks.

Defensively, Caruso is a pest. He consistently has his hands up to limit angles, and does a great job timing his breaks to zip into passing lanes and steal the ball. He tied for the SEC lead in steals-per-game last year, averaging an even two per contest, and his steal rate through four games is currently ranked 43rd in Division I.

On the wing, senior Danuel House (No. 23; 6’7″) is a scoring machine. This season, he’s been more perimeter-oriented, with roughly 70% of his attempts coming from behind the arc. Although House has made more than 41% of his three-point attempts this year, his game is much more than that. House has no qualms about taking a 17-footer after getting a defender airborne on the perimeter, and has the midrange game to make them pay. His quickness and explosiveness also make him a constant threat to get to the rim when defenses pressure him at the arc.

Joining House on the wing is senior Jalen Jones (No. 12; 6’7″), who will be making his season debut tonight after sitting out four games for playing in two closed scrimmages at SMU before transferring in the fall of 2013. Texas A&M wisely scheduled four non-conference games prior to the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, allowing their slashing senior a chance to come back for the entire tournament, rather than missing a game or two of it.

Jones is expected to once again join the starting lineup, but it remains to be seen whether Coach Billy Kennedy elects to go with two traditional bigs to match the size of Texas, giving them length from positions two through five, or if Jones is slotted in as an undersized four.

If the Aggies go with a pair of 6’7″ wings, they’ll really be able to stretch the floor when Tonny Trocha-Morelos (No. 10; 6’10”) is on the court. The sophomore from Colombia was already known as a solid rebounder and a defensive presence, but he’s upped his game this year with great passing and a newfound outside threat. Trocha started all four games for the Aggies and drained 6-of-9 threes, all coming in the last three contests. On top of adding a three-point shot to his repertoire, Trocha has also posted an assist rate of nearly 25% this season with a barrage of slick high-low passes.

With Jalen Jones back from suspension, it may be freshman Tyler Davis (No. 34; 6’10”) that loses a spot in the starting lineup. Davis was part of Plano West’s state title team, and he clearly plays beyond his years. Davis has really nice footwork for a true freshman and has been able to finish through contact in his first four games. Davis definitely needs some work on his conditioning, and it still remains to be seen if he’ll be strong enough to finish against major-conference opponents, but his early performances have been impressive.

Another impressive freshman in A&M’s stellar 2015 class is DJ Hogg (No. 1; 6’8″), who was also a member of that Plano West title team with Davis. Hogg’s size and outside threat give the Aggies a ton of lineup versatility off the bench, and it makes him a tough cover. Hogg is second on the team in three-point attempts behind House, but his 47.6% success rate is tops on the squad. Even though he’s a great outside shooter, the freshman doesn’t just camp out on the perimeter, often making fantastic cuts to the rack. He’s also great at finding space on the break, and is a big reason why their transition game is so potent.

The Aggies also have a pair of reserves inside that will help them do battle with the size of the Longhorn frontcourt. Bahamian junior Tavario Miller (No. 42; 6’7″) will surely have a good crowd in attendance. Although the offense drops off considerably when he’s on the floor, Miller knows how to use his body in the post, and is a solid rebounder and defender. Freshman Elijah Thomas (No. 15; 6’9″) is still unpolished, but has shown the ability to score with both hands in the post, and will likely be a difference-maker in future seasons, once the frontcourt logjam has cleared out.

The final member of A&M’s core rotation is freshman combo guard Admon Gilder (No. 3; 6’3″). Although Gilder can run the point, with both Anthony Collins and Caruso in front of him on the depth chart, he’s mostly seen action off the ball. He’s made 47.1% of his threes this season — second-best on the team — and harasses opposing guards on the defensive end.

Keys to the Game

1. Limit transition damage – Tonight’s match-up is one between two teams that like to push the tempo, but Texas A&M has proven to be more consistent on the offensive end. Although the Aggies have yet to face tough competition, they have been much more disciplined than the Longhorns.

Let it be clear, simply stopping the transition attack won’t be enough against A&M. Their offense is well-coached and their players will find good looks in half-court sets or on the secondary break. However, if this games becomes a true track meet with transition points lighting up the scoreboard, it seems highly unlikely that Texas can keep up.

2. Improve shot selection – Coach Shaka Smart told reporters on Monday that he has four categories for his team’s shots — great, good, decent, and bad. While shot selction has left quite a bit to be desired through the team’s first two games, Smart was pleased that the team took better shots in their second game.

As a result, three-point percentage went way up, and the team’s raw offensive efficiency increased by nearly 12%. The Longhorns took less shots off the dribble and found open teammates for good looks. Their assist ratio from the Washington game to the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi game jumped from roughly 25% to more than 56%. That wasn’t only a reflection on the level of opponent; team basketball and improved shot selection played a huge role.

Texas A&M plays sound defense that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate, and they will spring traps when the ball is moved to bad positions on the floor. Couple their frustrating defense with the likelihood that this game is played at a very high tempo, and it would be very easy for the Longhorns to again fall into the trap of taking quick, poor shots. To keep up with an efficient Texas A&M team, the Longhorns must build upon their most recent performance, and avoid regressing to the type of isolation basketball they played in Shanghai.

3. Steal possessions – The trademark of Shaka Smart basketball is stingy defense that generates extra possessions and easy buckets for his offense. Through the first two games, the Longhorns haven’t relied on much high-pressure defense, but have still managed to post a respectable 20.2% turnover mark.

A few miles down the road, the Aggies coughed up quite a few possessions in their first three games, with many of the errors unforced. Although Texas A&M can make Texas pay if they over-extend on defense, the opportunity is certainly there for the Longhorns to eke out a few extra possessions by winning the turnover battle. If the Longhorns can apply pressure at the right times and force Texas A&M into making its usual type of mistakes, they should be able to stay in this game and be in a position to move into the winner’s bracket.

Although it may have seemed a bit longer than usual for Texas fans this year, the college basketball offseason is finally over. With football results inconsistent and excitement surrounding the start of the Shaka Smart era at UT, anticipation for college hoops in Austin is higher than it has been in nearly a decade.

Texas returns the bulk of its roster from the 2014-15 season, having lost only Jonathan Holmes and Myles Turner to graduation and the NBA draft, respectively. But even with so much returning talent, the arrival of a new coach and a new style of play have surrounded this year’s team with question marks.

How will a formidable Texas frontcourt fit into Smart’s famous “Havoc” system? Will the incoming freshmen finally end the offensive woes of the last few years? Just how will the Longhorns split up the minutes with such a deep bench?

While Texas fans will be able to start answering those questions in just a few hours, Washington fans have just as many — if not more — about their own team. After a disappointing 33-30 record over the last two seasons, coach Lorenzo Romar bid adieu to all but three of last year’s scholarship players in a transfer epidemic. Rather than panic and sign anyone just to fill out a roster, the Huskies instead brought in one of the nation’s best recruiting classes to restock the cupboard.

It was clearly time for a reboot in Seattle, and the roster full of fresh faces certainly provides the Huskies an opportunity to chart a new course. In Washington’s exhibition against Seattle Pacific, Romar started four freshmen, and his newcomers played 77% of the team’s minutes. Although it’s probably a safe bet that the young Huskies will employ a smaller, more athletic lineup this season, it’s still a mystery what that rotation will look like in the season opener.

Keys to the Game

1. Exploit the advantage inside – In the exhibition game, Texas was without Shaq Cleare and Connor Lammert, who are both available for the season opener. Lacking depth in the frontcourt, the Longhorns played for much of the contest with just one big. Cameron Ridley looked incredibly confident, moving quickly with the ball in the post, and he dominated the glass against a smaller Tarleton State squad.

With the Huskies expected to trot out a smaller lineup, the Longhorns again have an opportunity to control the post. The size and depth of the Texas frontcourt should give them a significant scoring and rebounding edge, regardless of whether they elect for the traditional approach of two big men, or the option of smaller, more athletic four. If the Longhorns can capitalize on that with points in the paint and strong rebounding percentages, Washington will have a tough time keeping up.

2. Keep the starting backcourt on the floor – The Longhorns will be the much more experienced team on Saturday morning in Shanghai, with junior Isaiah Taylor and senior Demarcus Holland leading the way in the backcourt. Although newcomer Kerwin Roach is more than capable of handling the basketball in the absence of the two upperclassmen, their leadership will be important in a game environment that is going to be completely abnormal. Taylor picked up some frustrating fouls in the exhibition game by trying to be aggressive in the wrong spots, so today he must avoid putting himself on the bench with needless fouls.

3. Grab control early – The game starts at 11 A.M. on Saturday here in Shanghai, a tip time that is notoriously bad for college kids. It can be hard for players to get fired up for a morning game, and playing in front of an unaffiliated crowd that may be sparse will make that even tougher. The fans that do show up will likely root for baskets more than teams, so if Texas can avoid the morning slump and put some immediate points on the board, they may be able to create their own energy in a very unconventional setting.

Of course, Texas’ results don’t happen in a vacuum. If other bubble teams perform well, a 20-win season without an additional Top 50 RPI win might not be enough. On the other side of the coin, if the bubble teams falter and no bid thieves emerge in middle-tier conferences, the Longhorns can breathe even easier if they take care of their own business.

For a full look at all of Texas’ bubble competition, check out the table below. It includes all teams currently seeded 10th or lower by the composite Bracket Matrix, which was last updated after Thursday’s games, plus their First Four Out. The teams at the very bottom of the table are essentially dead in the water at this point, but we’ve been tracking them for a few weeks, so why stop now?

The asterisks next to a team’s name denote how many of the wins in their “W-L” column came against opponents not in Division I, which won’t count when the committee gets down to selecting and seeding teams. You’ll also see an asterisk in the “100+ Ls” column next to Tulsa, which does actually mean that they lost to a D-II school. All RPI numbers and records vs. RPI segments are updated through last night’s games.

The “KP W-L” column is a prediction of a team’s final regular-season record, according to Ken Pomeroy’s magical computers. The lone exception to that is BYU, who is already playing in their league tournament. Pomeroy only predicts games that are currently scheduled, so for the Cougars, we added a 2-1 record in the conference, assuming that chalk holds and BYU loses to Gonzaga in the WCC title game.

If you have a lot of free time on Saturday and an affinity for average college basketball, the viewer’s guide below should come in handy. The current RPI of each bubble team’s opponent is listed in parentheses, but since the Purdue-Illinois game matches up two bubblers, both team’s RPI ranks are included.

Saturday Viewer’s Guide

NC State vs. Syracuse (63) – 11 A.M. CT, CBS
Indiana vs. Michigan State (20) – 11 A.M. CT, ESPN
Pitt at Florida State (120) – 11 A.M. CT, ESPN2
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech (225) – 11 A.M. CT, Watch ESPN
LSU at Arkansas (15) – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN
Texas A&M vs. Alabama (90) – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN Full Court and Watch ESPN
Temple vs. UConn (76) – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN2
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph’s (175) – 1 P.M. CT, No TV
UMass at George Washington (81) – 2:30 P.M. CT, NBC Sports Network
Texas vs. Kansas State (80) – 3 P.M. CT, ESPN2
Stanford at Arizona (7) – 3 P.M. CT, CBS
Purdue (61) vs. Illinois (57) – 3:30 P.M. CT, Big 10 Network
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky (104) – 4:30 P.M. CT, American Sports Network (Regional)
Davidson at Duquesne (223) – 6 P.M. CT, A-10 Network ($)
Boise State vs. Fresno State (186) – 7 P.M. CT, Watch ESPN
Richmond vs. Saint Louis (259) – 7 P.M. CT, A-10 Network ($)
Colorado State at Utah State (132) – 8 P.M. CT, ROOT Sports Rocky Mountain
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt (99) – 8 P.M. CT, SEC Network
BYU N-vs. Santa Clara (201) – 10 P.M. CT, ESPN2

Looking for a quality win (vs. T100 RPI)
Rhode Island at La Salle – 11:30 A.M. CT, NBC Sports Network
Ole Miss at LSU – 1 P.M. CT, Fox Sports Net (Regional)
North Carolina at Miami – 1 P.M. CT, CBS
Texas at Kansas – 4 P.M. CT, ESPN
George Washington at Davidson – 6 P.M. CT, TWC Sports (Regional)
Tulsa at Memphis – 7 P.M. CT, ESPNU
Boise State at San Diego State – 7 P.M. CT, ESPN2
BYU at Gonzaga – 9 P.M. CT, ESPN2

Trying to avoid a bad loss (vs. 100+ RPI)
Missouri at Georgia – 11 A.M. CT, ESPNU
NC State at Boston College – 11 A.M. CT, ESPN Full Court/Watch ESPN
Cincinnati at Tulane – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN News
Fordham at UMass – 3 P.M. CT, A10 Network ($)
Old Dominion at North Texas – 4:30 P.M. CT, American Sports Network (Regional)
Northwestern at Illinois – 6 P.M. CT, Big Ten Network
Auburn at Texas A&M – 7:30 P.M. CT, SEC Network

However, it seems that every year fans forget just how average the teams are that you find on the famous bubble. Texas fans can be excused for overestimating the quality of bubble competition, considering that their team has only had to sweat the bubble twice in over a decade. It’s even more understandable when you remember that, in the south, basketball is a cute distraction that fills the time between football and spring football.

Still, the fact remains that every February, when it’s time for the college basketball world to finally assess the state of the bubble, the same annual conclusion is reached — it’s a soft bubble. Perhaps we can just do away with the idea of a soft bubble, and realize that it’s always mushy. There is no surface tension on the bubble, and all of the cute TV graphics saying “Poppin’ Bubbles” are misguided because the thing is always so damned squishy it could never pop.

With all that in mind, perhaps it will come as less of a surprise that the Longhorns still control their own destiny when it comes to the NCAA tournament. Win two of their final three games, and they should be in the field. Furthermore, if any of the other bubble teams play like bubble teams, two out of three wins could even help the Longhorns avoid the dreaded First Four.

Now, to the data. In this chart, the “Matrix” column is a ranking of the teams based on The Bracket Matrix. Due to some participants not updating their brackets as frequently, it can lag a little bit behind real-world results, but the composite can be more helpful than focusing on one or two bracketologists at the big-name sites.

A team’s W-L mark includes all games, but the committe only looks at D-I results. If a team has an asterisk next to its name, that means that one of its wins came against competition not in D-I. If it has two — that’d be you, Boise State and BYU — then they have two wins against scrubs. If it has one in the “100+ Ls” column, that means that the team actually lost to a team outside of Division I. That’s not a hot look for Tulsa.

The records, RPI, and SOS are updated through Thursday’s games. The KP W-L column is a team’s projected finish, as of Friday night.

Some key stats to consider as you look at the table above and consider the road ahead for Texas:

First, the highest RPI for a power-conference team left out of the tournament was 2005-06 Cincinnati, with an RPI rank of 40. That year, the Bearcats played three teams outside of Division I, so the exclusion was likely a verdict on their scheduling.

Second, the committee has been kind to teams from tough conferences that miss the .500 mark by a game. In each of the last three seasons, at least one team sporting an 8-10 mark in one of that season’s toughest leagues made it into the tournament. This year, the Big 12 is the nation’s toughest league in terms of both RPI and KenPom rankings.

However, you have to go all the way back to 1998 to find a team two games below .500 in conference play that made the Big Dance. If the Longhorns cannot win two of their final three to reach the 8-10 mark, they would have to log some pretty impressive victories in the conference tournament to still be in contention for bid.

Keys to the game

1. Tighten up the defense – In the first meeting, the Longhorns found themselves in a huge hole after Iowa State shredded their zone. The Cyclones posted a raw offensive efficiency mark of 1.265 points per possession against Texas, their best Big 12 performance of the year, and their fifth-best of the entire season.

The Longhorns traded that zone for quite a bit of man-to-man in an impressive defensive performance against OU earlier this week, which is a reassuring sign coming into this one. To match up with the athleticism and quick ball movement of Iowa State, they will need to be able to perform just as well in a man D this afternoon. Even though the Cyclones will be very tough to keep up with in a man, they are far too disciplined to shut down with a zone.

The toughest matchup defensively for Texas will be found on the wing. With Dustin Hogue (No. 22) and Bryce Dejean-Jones (No. 13) both checking in at 6’6″, a three-guard Texas lineup would give up significant size. However, even with the Longhorns giving up a few inches on the wing, that’s probably the best option. Connor Lammert or Jonathan Holmes would eliminate the height issue at the three, but neither has the agility or foot speed to properly defend Iowa State’s wings in a man.

2. Stop the ball in transition – It would be too simple to say that Texas just needs to control the pace against the up-tempo Cyclones, as the Horns actually look better when they get out and run. However, if the Longhorns agree to a track meet with Iowa State, they have to prevent transition buckets. The Cyclones run the floor very well, and will quickly pile up the easy points if Texas isn’t alert in transition.

3. Attack with the bounce – The Longhorns nearly finished off a crazy comeback in the second half of their loss to Iowa State by spreading the floor and turning Taylor loose. Texas rained down three-pointers, led by a hot Javan Felix, forcing the Cyclones to stick closer to the perimeter and open up the driving lanes for Taylor. When they did try to help down into the paint, Taylor found the Longhorn shooters for open looks outside.

With the recent emergence of Kendal Yancy as an additional three-point threat, the Longhorns have even more options to spread out the Cyclones and let Isaiah do his thing. Spreading Iowa State and tilting the floor for Taylor will also allow the Texas bigs even more space to find offensive rebounds against the undersized Cyclones.

The Longhorns desperately need to log some big wins to boost their NCAA tournament résumé, and Iowa State offers a prime opportunity. If Texas wants to ensure their place in the field, and possibly even play their way out of the dreaded 7-to-10 range of seeds, they will need to score some big scalps down the stretch in a loaded Big 12.

Fortunately for Texas, the Cyclones have historically had trouble winning away from the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum. Since the advent of the Big 12’s double round-robin, the Cyclones are 31-3 at home, and just 12-21 on the road, including a 2-4 mark this season. To improve their odds of post-season success, Texas will have to continue the Cyclone road misery.

With a long list of contenders lining up in the preseason to knock Kansas off its perch atop the conference, college basketball analysts hesitantly predicted that perhaps this was finally the season in which the Jayhawks might not take home a piece of the league title. History would make it hard to bet against the champs, but with such a deep stable of challengers, for once “the field” seemed to at least be an even favorite. However, in the span of just a few hours on Saturday, the landscape of this year’s Big 12 race quickly shifted, putting Kansas back in its familiar spot in the driver’s seat.

First, the Texas Longhorns let a second-half lead slip away as Kansas put on a clinic at the Frank Erwin Center, with the Jayhawks excecuting to near-perfection on the offensive end. A few hours later and a few hours up the road, Iowa State fell victim to the Lubbock pothole that trips up at least one team annually. Just like that, the Cyclones conceded the edge they had claimed with a home win over KU only a week prior, and the Jayhawks were once again all alone atop the Big 12.

Saturday’s losses make tonight’s Big Monday contest even more important for both Iowa State and Texas. If the Cyclones want to keep pace with the Jayhawks and position themselves to take advantage of any KU stumbles, they cannot afford any losses at home. We are only a third of the way through the Big 12’s meat-grinder schedule, and it’s true that a lot can happen in the next six weeks. Still, history and a strong home-court advantage at Phog Allen Fieldhouse both indicate that Kansas will give Iowa State little margin for error.

For Texas, the depth of the Big 12 might make it a battle just to reach .500 in league play. The Longhorns have already dropped two home games, and their recent results do not give fans reason for optimism on the road. Texas is just 10-19 on the road since the league switched to a double round-robin format, with six of those 10 wins coming against Texas Tech and TCU. With the Longhorns already logging road wins against the Red Raiders and Horned Frogs this season, it means they must win the rest of their home games to reach .500, or at least steal enough road wins against the league’s laundry list of Top 25 teams to make up for any more home losses.

If the road struggles for Texas weren’t enough to make tonight’s task a daunting one for the Horns, Hilton Coliseum has also proven to be one of the nation’s toughest venues for visiting opponents. Since the arrival of Fred Hoiberg in Ames, home crowds have consistently been at capacity, with noise levels through the roof. That has made home wins for Iowa State nearly automatic, as the Cyclones have posted a 27-3 mark at Hilton Coliseum since the advent of the Big 12’s double round-robin.

By the Numbers

Clocking in at 70.7 adjusted possessions per game, the Cyclones boast the nation’s 13th-quickest tempo. Iowa State doesn’t use high-pressure defense to force turnovers and turn the game into a track meet, but they instead constantly look up after defensive rebounds and baskets by the opponents. Cyclone shooters drift to the arc as the the ball is quickly moved up the floor, frequently allowing them to strike before defense has even thought about setting up. The Cyclones take 29.6% of their shots in transition, the ninth-highest percentage in Division I, according to Hoop-Math.

That ability to quickly score also helps the Cyclones on the defensive glass. Despite being much smaller than most of their opponents, the Cyclones are currently ranked 40th in the nation when it comes to winning defensive rebounds. Opponents are usually so concerned with preventing transition baskets by Iowa State that they will not commit rebounders on the offensive end, turning many possessions into one-and-done affairs.

When teams do manage to stop Iowa State from scoring in transition, they can still find it tough to prevent points in the half-court. The Cyclones do not turn the ball over, with their 16.1% turnover rate one of the 25 best in the land. Iowa State moves the ball quickly and will keep a defense scrambling until they find an easy look at the rim or a shooter with space. Thanks to their crisp passing and disciplined offense, the Cyclones log assists on more than 63% of their buckets, currently the 15th-best rate in the country.

Meet the Cyclones

Although all of the Cyclones are good passers with nice assist totals, it’s point guard Monté Morris (No. 11) that leads the way in that department. Morris is perhaps the nation’s most underrated floor general, having posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of more than 5-to-1 this season. He is incredibly calm under pressure, as evidenced in Iowa State’s road win against West Virginia. Despite constant trapping and a variety of defensive looks, Morris posted six assists against one turnover, looking the part of an unflappable hostage negotiator every time the Mountaineers rushed at him in the backcourt.

A big part of the reason why Morris is able to facilitate so well is his ability to create off the bounce. He can quickly get into the paint and create shots for himself, but is always looking for his open teammates camped out in the corner or leaking out to the wings. Morris is also a defensive pest, posting a steal rate just shy of 3% while only being whistled for 1.6 fouls per 40 minutes.

The Cyclone that most benefits from Morris’ ability to draw defensive attention with the bounce is sharpshooter Naz Long (No. 15). The 6’4″ junior is the team’s best three-point threat, having drained more than 40% of his attempts this season. Long lives on the perimeter, with nearly 77% of his attempts coming from beyond the arc, but is not afraid of putting the ball on the deck and driving to the tin when a defender closes out too aggressively.

If there’s one thing that Coach Hoiberg is known for, it might be his dance moves. But if there’s a second thing Hoiberg is known for, it would be his ability to mesh a group of transfers to create a solid team. This season, he has a trio of contributing transfers, led by former USC and UNLV scorer Bryce Dejean-Jones (No. 13).

Although the 6’6″ senior takes about three shots behind the arc each game, he’s at his best attacking the basket. Dejean-Jones is very athletic and can score in bunches, as evidenced by the 17-plus points he averaged in his first eight games as a Cyclone. Big 12 teams have done a much better job at limiting his output, but he’s still always a threat to go off for double-digit scoring.

Perhaps the most unheralded player on the Cyclone roster is 6’6″ forward Dustin Hogue (No. 22). Even though Hogue only typically takes one or two three-pointers per game, he has made almost 50% of his attempts, so defenses have to be honest when he’s behind the arc. That outside threat pulls opposing defenders out to the perimeter, and it also allows him to beat bigs off the bounce and get to the rack for a layup.

Despite his size, Hogue is a phenomenal rebounder, particularly on the offensive end. His timing is impeccable once a shot goes up, even when he’s on the perimeter. Watch Hogue after he passes to an open shooter, and you’ll notice that he immediately breaks towards the rim, quickly finding cracks between the defenders to get position and win back any misses.

At just 6’8″, junior Georges Niang (No. 31) is the closest thing to a post in Iowa State’s offense. He is an outstanding passer that can break down zones from the high post, and he is also incredibly slippery when beating opposing bigs in face-up situations. Although Niang has struggled inside against the likes of Oklahoma State’s Michael Cobbins and the big frontline of Baylor, his versatility and court vision make him invaluable.

One newcomer who may some increased minutes tonight is 6’9″ junior Jameel McKay (No. 1). The forward became eligible at the semester break, having transferred from Marquette without ever playing a game for the Golden Eagles. McKay is a long and lanky forward who does a fantastic job protecting the rim, and his rebounding rates on both the offensive and defensive ends are tops in the Iowa State rotation. The junior has averaged 22.1 minutes in his nine appearances, but will likely be called on for additional duty against the size of Texas.

Abdel Nader (No. 2) is yet another transfer for the Cyclones, arriving by way of Northern Illinois. Nader plays much bigger than his 6’6″ frame, but still has serviceable handles that he can use to attack from the wings. He has taken more than 44% of his shots from behind the arc, but has made jut 22.9% of them. Nader is a strong 6’6″ and a solid rebounder, so he would likely be better served by focusing on his interior game and exploiting mismatches when isolated against other wings near the paint.

The final member of Iowa State’s rotation is sophomore three-point gunner Matt Thomas (No. 21), who is averaging about 17 minutes per game. He’s taken more than two-thirds of his shots from beyond the arc, but has struggled through a sophomore slump this year, connecting on less than 30% of them. Fortunately, Thomas showed an ability to put the ball on the floor, create shots, and get to the rim in a breakout performance against Oklahoma State, so he can still contribute for the Cyclones even when his long-range shot isn’t there.

Keys to the Game

1. Limit transition points – The Longhorns have the second-best transition defense in terms of effective field-goal percentage, per Hoop-Math. Texas is also one of the nation’s better teams in terms of limiting transition opportunities altogether, as opponents take just 17.2% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of a possession.

Those two stats will be key in slowing down Iowa State tonight, but a commitment to stopping the break could also cost the Longhorns their usual edge on the offensive glass. Coach Rick Barnes is typically not one to change his system based on opponent, so it may be up to the Texas guards to get back in a transition prevent, while the big Texas frontcourt continues to attack the offensive glass.

2. Pressure outside shooters – Iowa State might not be making threes at the rate that they have enjoyed in recent years, but the Cyclones still have enough dangerous shooters to make the perimeter a key battleground tonight. Iowa State had a tough time scoring inside against the size of Baylor, and will likely face the same difficulty tonight. If the Longhorns can rely on their bigs to patrol the paint and alter shots down low, they can then afford to push their guards and wings closer to the perimeter and challenge Iowa State’s long-range shooters. A failure to get hands up in front of the Cyclone shooters, might just get Texas run out of the building.

3. Attack inside – This may be easier said than done, as Iowa State found quite a bit of success against both Oklahoma State and West Virginia with a sagging man-to-man that made it very difficult to get the ball down low. Texas has seen its share of that kind of defense this season, and the Horns have typically not fared well against it. However, if the Longhorns can manage to find some room in the post and pound the ball down low, they will not only exploit their size advantage, but also potentially put a very thin Iowa State frontcourt in foul trouble.

4. Survive runs – With Iowa State’s up-tempo approach and its rabid home crowd, the Cyclones can quickly go on a scoring run that dazes their visiting opponents. It would be nearly impossible for the Longhorns to play a full 40 minutes tonight without seeing at least one of those scoring outbursts from ISU, so the Longhorns must weather those runs and respond in kind.

If they can survive the scoring spurts and try to win the small battles between media timeouts, the Longhorns should be able to keep it close with an Iowa State team that has won its four conference games by an average of just 3.75 points. When on the road in conference play, being within striking distance in the final minutes is often all you can ask for.

[Ed: This post was revised after publishing to reflect the new rankings in the January 26th polls.]

The Texas Longhorns bounced back from a two-game losing streak in impressive fashion on Saturday night, thumping West Virginia by a 77-50 count. The win brought Texas back to level on the young Big 12 season, with tonight’s road game at TCU providing a chance to build a little momentum heading into this weekend’s clash with Kansas.

Although TCU is just 1-3 in the league and has been a doormat since joining from the Mountain West, the Horned Frogs are not nearly the easy win of years past. With some solid transfers and key players finally staying healthy this season, the Horned Frogs finished a fairly soft non-conference schedule with a pristine 13-0 mark. While they haven’t found the same success in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs battled both West Virginia and Baylor in close losses at home, with the latter contest going to overtime.

Texas once again looked like a legitimate contender in Saturday’s dominating win over West Virginia, but if they are going to remain relevant in the conference race, they have to follow it up with a road win tonight. Even though Ken Pomeroy’s model gives TCU the slight edge in this one, the Fort Worth road trip will likely prove to be the second-easiest in the Big 12 this year. The Longhorns cannot afford to give up ground to their competitors by dropping a winnable game away from home.

By the Numbers

Although the Horned Frogs only played two power-conference opponents in their non-conference slate, their adjusted defensive statistics are still very solid. They are currently ranked 13th in the nation, having allowed an adjusted .902 points per possession, according to Ken Pomeroy. Through four Big 12 games, they have the league’s third-toughest defense, having allowed an adjusted .951 points per possession in conference play.

That stifling defense is anchored by a stout interior D, where the Horned Frogs have a ton of length. TCU’s big men are very patient and disciplined when protecting the rim, as they constantly keep their feet grounded and arms extended to the sky. As a result, opponents find it very difficult to score inside, and don’t usually get bailed out by foul calls. TCU’s two-point field goal defense is second-best in all of D-I, with opponents making just 34.8% of their shots inside the arc.

It only takes an instant for a second and sometimes a third Horned Frog big to collapse on a ball handler in the paint, so Cameron Ridley will need to pick where he left off against West Virginia. He, Prince Ibeh, and the other Texas giants will have to react quickly when they get the ball in the low post, or they will quickly find their window of opportunity closed.

While the big men tend to avoid fouling in the paint, the Horned Frogs do foul quite often when trying to stop dribble penetration, and when battling on the glass. Their defensive free-throw rate, which measures how often a team sends opponents to the line, is the 20th-highest in Division I, with TCU opponents shooting nearly one free throw for every two shots taken. Consequently, TCU opponents score nearly 30% of their points from the line, which is the highest percentage in the nation.

Although TCU gives opponents frequent trips to the charity stripe, they do a great job earning their own trips to the line to balance it out. TCU’s offensive free-throw rate of 51.6 is third-highest in the country, but they fail to take advantage of the opportunities. The Horned Frogs have made just 62.3% of their free throws this season, the 18th-lowest success rate in Division I. They have shot even worse in conference play, making just 61.5% of their free throws against Big 12 opponents.

The extremes demonstrated in free-throw rates are also mirrored in TCU’s rebounding numbers. The Horned Frogs are a top-ten team when it comes to winning back missed shots, while checking in near the bottom third of Division I teams on the defensive glass. TCU reclaims 41% of its own misses, but still allows opponents to snag 32.5% of their own. With the Longhorns posting strong rebounding numbers on both ends of the court, those extra possessions could big a huge factor in tonight’s game.

Meet the Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs are led by senior point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5), who has ascended TCU’s historical scoring ranks, and now finds himself in the top ten. Although he’s made just 33.7% of his threes this season, his career rate is just shy of 36%, and his range extends well beyond the arc. On a team that doesn’t shoot a ton of threes and is fairly average in its accuracy, Anderson’s ability from behind the arc is something that opponents have to keep in mind.

Typically, Anderson is slicing up defenses with the bounce, and he’s always alert enough to find open teammates when opponents take away a finish at the rim. More than three-quarters of Anderson’s assists come when he’s in the paint, and with an assist rate of 28.2%, Texas defenders off the ball will have to be aware of that fact when trying to help on his penetration.

Anderson is also a fantastic defender who hardly fouls, yet forces opponents to start their offense well behind the arc. He is quick enough to stop dribble penetration, and he makes it very difficult for his man to receive passes. Anderson’s 3.1% personal steal rate is currently ranked 220th in the nation, while his 2.5 fouls per 40 minutes also ranks him 427th in Division I.

Well-traveled senior Trey Zeigler (No. 32) joins Anderson in the backcourt after stints at both Central Michigan and Pitt. Zeigler loves to drive to the rack, and he will quickly spin around defenders who try to cut him off on his path to the rim. He has taken only four of his 113 shots from behind the arc this season, so Texas should give him a nice cushion and make it more difficult for him to penetrate.

Zeigler also rebounds well for his position, constantly finding cracks to get past defenders and snag the offensive boards. To put his offensive rebounding numbers in perspective, Zeigler’s personal rate of 7.1% is better than Connor Lammert’s and just a hair behind that of OU’s Ryan Spangler.

Coach Trent Johnson has made some quick strides in recruiting since arriving in Fort Worth, and the addition of JUCO transfer Kenrich Williams (No. 34) is another nice boost. The 6’7″ sophomore made his first start on Saturday at Texas Tech, and is averaging more than 23 minutes per game.

Williams is very poised with the ball, and has shown the ability to knock down the three, having made 5-of-12 on the year. He has used that threat to shot fake opponents out of position, and then found space in the midrange to sink a jumper. He also owns one of the nation’s 50 best offensive rebounding marks, while his defensive rebounding rate is in the Top 400, and his block percentage is 249th.

Sophomore forward Chris Washburn (No. 33) is another transfer for the Horned Frogs, arriving in Fort Worth by way of UTEP. The 6’8″ lefty can knock down midrange jumpers and hook shots, and does a good job stripping the ball when he helps on defense. Washburn also does a nice job blocking shots, despite looking like he could stand to shed a few pounds.

In the middle, sophomore Karviar Shepherd (No. 14) is a vacuum on the glass and an intimidating presence in the lane. The Horned Frogs don’t often post up their big men, so Shepherd can often be found knocking down midrange jumpers and causing a nuisance in pick-and-pop situations. Unfortunately, he has limited his effectiveness in some games by picking up dumb fouls away from the basket. The Horned Frogs will certainly need him for extended minutes tonight, so Shepherd will have to avoid picking up cheap fouls on the boards and defending outside the lane.

On the occasions where Shepherd has found himself in foul trouble, Amric Fields (No. 4) has had to step up, but the 6’9″ senior is only playing about 16 minutes per game this season. Like Shepherd, Fields can also stretch the floor, but he is not as comfortable with the bounce as Shepherd, and has had issues when teams throw doubles at him.

The other post reserve is 6’8″ junior Devonta Abron (No. 23), who is in his second season with TCU after starting his career at Arkansas. Abron is not nearly as disciplined on defense as the other Horned Frog bigs, but he gobbles up rebounds on both ends of the court and is chipping in 8.5 minutes per game.

Sophomore swingman Brandon Parrish (No. 11) came off the bench in Saturday’s win at Texas Tech, after starting the team’s first 16 games. He is not a strong ball handler, but is a deadly shooter from beyond the arc in catch-and-shoot situations. Parrish’s 41.9% success rate from three is the team’s best, but he’s averaging less than one make per game. On defense, Parrish has had difficulty keeping quick guards in front of him.

Another three-point threat for the Horned Frogs is sophomore Hudson Price (No. 21), the son of former NBA star Mark Price. Although he came in with a reputation as an outside scorer, he’s made just 32% of his threes in college, and has not found much success putting the ball on the floor when opponents chase him off the line.

The final member of TCU’s core rotation is freshman guard Chauncey Collins (No. 1), who is playing about 10 minutes per game. The 6-footer is very quick with the ball on offense, but that speed has not yet translated to good defense. Collins often lets his man get the corner, and he logs quite a few fouls as he struggles to keep opposing guards from penetrating.

On the other end, the freshman has taken 75% of his shots from behind the arc, but connected on just 30% of those attempts. At that rate, the Longhorns can probably afford to give him some space to neutralize his speed.

Keys to the Game

1. Attack with the bounce – The Horned Frogs do a fantastic job defending against typical post-up opportunities, and foul often when opponents put the ball on the floor. The Longhorns can earn themselves quite a few trips to the line if they are aggressive with the ball, and can also open things up a bit for the big men inside by drawing defensive attention with their penetration.

2. Force long jumpers – While the Longhorns should be trying to create things with the bounce, they will also want to take away that aspect of the game for TCU. The Horned Frogs thrive on dribble penetration to create open looks, so Texas needs to give some space on the perimeter and force TCU into taking long jumpers. Although the Horned Frogs have a few guys who can knock down the three, they are not used to relying on the outside shot for much of their scoring

3. Win second-chance battle – With both teams currently among the nation’s ten best offensive rebounders, there will likely be quite a few second-chance opportunities for these teams tonight. If either squad can limit the number of those extended possessions, it will take away a huge aspect of the opposing offense’s scoring. The edge seems to go to Texas here, as the Longhorns have posted much stronger defensive rebounding numbers. However, if they can’t reproduce that success in Fort Worth tonight, the Horns may find themselves in a tight one.

[Ed: This post was revised after publishing to reflect the new rankings in the January 19th polls.]

It’s no secret that the Big 12 is the nation’s toughest conference this year. You can’t flip on a game without hearing an announcer talking about the depth of the Big 12, and the statistics have backed up that nice bit of conference PR.

Although the ACC has more elite teams near the top of its league than the Big 12 does, there are certainly some nights that the ACC’s good teams can give a sub-par effort and still log a win. In the Big 12, there are eight solid teams, and a pair of average ones that can still put a scare into the rest of the league. With no guarantee games, every win is a precious commodity, and the margin for error is extremely slim.

Texas quickly found that out after conceding home court to Oklahoma in a 21-point thrashing nearly two weeks ago. The Longhorns traveled to Stillwater later that week as underdogs, and played according to script in a game that the Cowboys controlled comfortably. Just like that, the Longhorns found themselves sitting at 1-2 in a conference where just finishing with a winning record will be a badge of honor.

To stay relevant in the nation’s toughest conference, Texas must defend its home court and pick off a few road games that it isn’t favored to win. Thanks to that embarrassment at the hands of the Sooners, home wins become even more important, while the pressure for those road wins has increased. Unfortunately, with eight teams currently ranked in Pomeroy’s Top 50, defending home court is still a tall order. Although Vegas still considers Texas the favorite tonight, Pomeroy’s model gives the Mountaineers the edge in what is essentially a toss-up.

Keys to the game

1) Handle the pressure – West Virginia currently owns the nation’s best turnover percentage, forcing miscues on more than 31% of their defensive possessions. The Longhorns have struggled to hang on to the ball even against mediocre defenses, so they will likely waste quite a few possessions tonight and give up some easy fast break buckets. If they can limit the damage caused by West Virginia’s pressure, they can keep themselves in a position to win.

The Mountaineers love to press after made baskets, but they also will trap opponents when settling into half-court sets. The Longhorn guards need to avoid putting themselves into bad situations near the sideline, and the bigs must react quickly to find the open man and force West Virginia to rotate. With an entire week off to prepare for this game, Texas fans have to hope that the team has been able to make vast improvements in this area.

2) Clean up the glass – The Mountaineers don’t actually shoot the ball that well, relying on the offense generated by their defense and strong offensive rebounding that extends their possessions. West Virginia has the nation’s fourth-best offensive rebounding rate on the year, as they have reclaimed 42.5% of their misses.

In Big 12 play, the Longhorns are an unimpressive sixth in defensive rebounding, allowing opponents to win back nearly 34% of their misses. If Texas can’t handle the West Virginia pressure, the Horns may be able to hang in the game by taking away the Mountaineer edge on the offensive glass. However, if Texas struggles against the pressure and allows the Mountaineers their usual offensive board numbers, it could get very ugly.

3) Limit transition points – Star point guard Juwan Staten (No. 3) is always looking to push the ball in transition, and can be very difficult to stop once he gets into gear, so the Longhorns must be alert as they hustle back on defense. Forward Devin Williams (No. 5) also runs the court well in transition to give them easy finishes at the rim, and the quick, athletic West Virginia lineup does a great job of beating the defense back and staying in their lanes on the break, setting up wide-open transition jumpers.

Texas will already have a tough time limiting points off of turnovers, so the Horns cannot afford to give up easy buckets in transition. The Longhorns have to stop the ball and pick up men quickly, or else they will find it nearly impossible to keep up with West Virginia on the scoreboard.

4) Force long jumpers – West Virginia really struggles to knock down three-pointers, as they have made just 30.5% of their looks from long range this season. However, their team is great at canning their midrange shots, and Staten and Gary Browne, Jr. (No. 14) can also quickly slice through the defense with the bounce.

If Texas can limit penetration and challenge those midrange jumpers, they should force West Virginia to settle for long-range shots, dramatically improving their odds tonight. However, West Virginia frequently frustrates opponents who play 30 seconds of great defense against their constant motion, as Staten and Browne will often find a driving lane in the final seconds of the shot clock. To be able to slow down the Mountaineer offense, the Longhorns must be patient and disciplined until the very last second of their half-court defensive possessions.