VirginiaWx

Severe Weather Threat...

2016-02-23T18:40:00.001-05:00

First, my Grand Finale is looking more and more like Delaware City or even worse, but I still have hope for the period Match 5-15. Obviously, The clock is running and every day the sunlight is a little longer and brighter and my time is close to running out. Snow Haters, don't spike the ball just yet.

Tomorrow: Our storm we tracked last week for Wednesday is now going well west and presents a severe weather threat. Now, there are factors that could limit this, especially areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. With that, I wanted to make you all aware of this.

Looking at SIM radar, it seems two waves of showers and storms come through, the second being the greatest threat to have tornadic activity.

This is Radar right around 5 with the second round moving through.

You can see our storm starts near SML and strengthens as it moves rapidly NE from there.

4pm MAP of greatest risk for Tornado..

One hour later the risk has shifted east.

I'm honestly skeptical places just north of Martinsville to just south of Lynchburg see severe storms. There will be a cold air wedge in places and the models QUICKLY move out the wedge and then stir up some storms.

Not our area temps in the 40's with much warmer air to our east. at 1PM

3 hours later, we've spiked to near 60 and Tornadic cells are are supposed to form. Now, I'd never rule out anything from happening but I can't remember a time where in our area that we've had a wedge break and tornadic cells pop up that quickly. I would contend that based on climatology alone, the highest risk is east of a line from Danville to Pamplin. With that, please be aware of all the weather reports and be cognizant of all watches and warnings issued tomorrow. If the sun pops out late morning early afternoon, it could mean game on. I'll tweet out and FB update information as it comes available.

How do you find Will Smith in the snow?

2016-02-20T09:32:00.002-05:00

You look for the Fresh Prints..

Today should be a VERY nice day, temps up near 60.

Tomorrow will be warm as well, but there is a shot for some showers in the afternoon, which could ruin outside time.

Next weeks event: Trending more like NOT much of anything but rain. Anytime there is some dry air, a 20 minute sleet shower is possible and sometimes if it starts right around dawn, a little freezing rain takes place. With that, the bulk will be rain and it could be a big rain. Much of next week Sunday till Thursday could have some rain each day.

How's the Grand Finale Looking?? I still like my prediction of one significant and one minor event before spring kicks in. On January 6, I stated no changes to my overall ideas for the winter, conceding that December was much warmer than I thought. 15 days later, we were on the Eve of our big event.

If I had to pick a date, March 7th, give or take 4 days for those events to happen. (Let's say the week From March 4th to March 11th look best.

PNA: Measures ridging on the west coast.. looks positive, that's good

AO: Measures blocking over the north pole ...looks negative, that's good

NAO: Blocking in the Atlantic to lock in cold air ... looks negative, looks good.

EPO: Ridge/Block over Alaska, BONUS cold air. .. looks negative, indicating blocking over Alaska. All good signs.

If the patterns does not develop as I expect, we could be looking at a "Delaware City Finale"

Shortly after this, the pattern will break down March 15th ish... and Spring emerges.

We're heading to the GRAND FINALE!

2016-02-17T23:14:00.002-05:00

Winter has one last stand and like a good firework display, the GRAND FINALE could be incredible for you snow lovers and miserable for you heat misers.

Growing up, I can remember 3 types of Grand Finales:

1. The standard. My great grandmother owned a house at Slaughters Beach, a location about 20 miles north of Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. The Fire Company hosted the fireworks each year and once the siren went off, the show started and it was a normal fun grand finale to end the show.

2. The Phillies game. My family went up to a Phillies game when I was 10 or so to see the 4th of July display. I figured the show would be pretty incredible and from the second the "Power 99" (local radio station sponsor) started shooting out sparks, my jaw dropped in amazement until the show was over. The Grand Finale is still the benchmark by which I grade all firework shows.

3. Delaware City. One year we stopped someplace new because we were not going to my grandmothers. Some of the shells didn't launch high enough and pieces of burning paper fell in the crowd. During the grand finale, the first firework didn't blast high enough and each subsequent firework got caught in the wake and blew up. There was a ton of noise, but no fancy light show at all. I look back and laugh because it was that bad and such a let down.

Winter has until about March 10th or so based on the pattern. I see three ways to have OUR Grand Finale of this Winter.

1. We get ONE more storm above 6 inches and one storm below 4 inches. We'd be above normal snowfall for the winter but within the range I predicted based on the Strong Basin wide, but more western based El Nino.

2. We Get a Phillies game with 2 or more events over 6 inches and a couple of other minor events. This will put us on the EDGE of a top 10 winter in our area snowfall wise.

3. We get Delaware City-- Had a lot of potential but something goes wrong and we are done for the year snowfall wise. My winter outlook falls short, snow loves give me a sympathy pat on the back while you snow haters cackle into what could be a SUPER LA NINA next winter, which are often warm with reduced snow.

Good news for those of you who don't like snow-- I think when the pattern change mid March, The End of the month is actually pretty nice/warm In like a Lion, Out like a Lamb.

I'm going to hedge on a good Ole Slaughters Beach Grand Finale. You'll be impressed, but you'll know there were better events and better years.

Next Weeks Event:

The weekend will be great with 60-65 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Some cooler air filters in Monday and while some COLD air moves in from the west a storm approaches from the SouthWest on Tuesday.

My take is the best potential now makes this the "under 4" inch event as cold air is LATE getting here and we pull something out late, but the bulk of a strong and wet storm is liquid, not frozen. West Virginia into PA does very well away from the coast.

What is needed: It is presenting as a two wave system. Wave one is all rain, wave two is rain ending as snow, some model data has 10 inches Roanoke/NV and 4-6 LYH. If we can get the cold air in faster and slow the storm up, we could make this a bigger event.

On this map below, note how there is a storm over New Foundland, This will bring in cold air and you can see a high pressure centered over MN and that SHOULD be pushing cold air in our region. This is Tuesday Night at 7PM.

This is Wednesday Night at 7PM-- Cold high anchored over Southeast Canada and broad low over SC/GA. The map is actually very warm at the surface, but SHOULD be colder.

Note that 12 hours later, our low is NE of VAB. If we get This time frame, we could see a 4+ snowfall. Anything sooner, I fear the models would SHOW a few inches but we'd end up disappointed.

So, with this being round one of our "Winter Grand Finale" I will watch this event closely. This will be a BIG storm for some areas.. Foot plus. I think we catch a little something, but the severe totals will be 100 miles or more north and west of us. IF that cold air finds it's way in sooner OR if the storm is 12 hours slower, we could be looking at January 22 all over again.

If this falls apart, we should have 2-3 more shots at some snow and ice after this.

Keep up the clicks! You all rock.

Storm wrap up and looking forward..

2016-02-16T18:42:00.000-05:00

The GREAT storm has come and gone and WOW, we are right on the edge of damaging ice storm and we JUST escaped with relatively minor damage.

What I forecasted

What Happened

Ice pushed the limits to what could have been a damaging storm but the temps just warmed up. about 5 am, the ice stopped building up when temps hit 32 or so.

Tonight could see a rain or snow shower, but I don't expect any big deal to come from it.

Warm this weekend:

Saturday Estimate high:

Sunday EVEN BETTER!

Looking ahead: After our great weekend, a series of cold fronts comes through and then a storm is forecast to form along the cold front. The European model today was JUST cold enough to start as snow and dumped 10-15 inches of snow region wide. Other model runs are just off shore or a little warm.

Now, we know I operate from a position snow is a good thing. So, if you don't want snow, hope for the opposite of this.

1. We need to cold air to get in place. Some data suggest VERY marginal air temps with under full sunshine, the freezing line would be near Canada. However, VERY cold air is just behind this storm.

2. We could hope for a slower storm-- If the main energy comes out lets say Wednesday or Thursday our odds are much better than if we get a slower storm.

3. Sometimes model data runs a little warm a few days out-- so it could be a little colder than modeled.

As of now, I'm not too crazy about this storm. This past storm I felt good thinking we'd get something, if even 1-2 inches. With this storm, my fear is by Sunday there is a primary low going into Kentucky (placing us on the warm side) and a second low forms near Wallops Island, meaning a big PA and NY snow.

Even if this one doesn't pan out, I believe we have 2-3 more shots at something after this. We need a few more inches each location to at least verify my winter snowfall outlooks.

Thanks for the clicks on the ads! You all really impressed me. I'm up to 500 likes on facebook so continue to share with your friends.

Early Morning update...

2016-02-15T04:57:00.003-05:00

The storm is behaving reasonably well.. Here is a rough estimate of my snow total so far down on Timberlake road.

It's 4.5 in this picture and that was an hour ago. I took a long walk and really enjoyed it. Snow ratios are REALLY good now, north of 15-1.

Most areas are within our 3-6 range, I think that Northern Amherst and Down near Danville may need to catch up a little but outside of that, we are on target.

This was somewhat bonus snows.. I didn't believe we'd be at almost 5 inches by now. Radar looks good, with that I've seens things NOT behave before.

So, down along the VA/NC border Martinsville east, another 1-2 inches.

The 460 Corridor, I think we get another 2-4. Many places could exceed 6 inches when all is said and done. Remember, I'd always rather go up then come down with snow totals.

Once the snow mixes, it should shut off within an hour or two. After that, light freezing drizzle should develop mid afternoon. The cold air finally gives up LATE tonight, As late as 4-5 am Tuesday Morning, some places in sheltered valleys. I think icing gets to the point where we start to get concerned and then it changes over. Some minor power issues likely, so be ready.

I Choo Choo Choose you!

2016-02-14T06:27:00.003-05:00

Happy Valentines day one and all and if you don't have a Valentine, let this card fill that void!

Winter Storm Warnings are up region wide...

The Pink areas have been upgraded while the other regions are either advisories, or watches. We did hit single digits last night here in Lynchburg with a 7 spot on the board as of 5 am. Roanoke has been as low as 10 and I imagine one of those in between hour observations met our goal of single digit lows.

The storm is moving faster. Start times in the west regions COULD be as early as 5pm, I think the 8 or 9 PM, the first flakes are into Lynchburg. The earlier start time won't translate to more snow because it just means we mix sooner. Mixing COULD be in Southside pre Dawn and Lynchburg as early as 9 am. First sleet mixes in and then by mid afternoon we should have completed the transition to freezing rain in Lynchburg. Sleet may linger a littler longer out in Roanoke and other places along 81.

Here are my broad ideas about the storm. My map may not match XYZ vendor, it happens.

Some ideas and pit falls:

1. I think that the Mt. Empire and NRV into the Roanoke Vally, up 81 to Lexington are the Jackpot areas for snow. Would not be shocked if a person reports a 10 inch total that way.

2. Some model data has had one maximum east of the Blue Ridge VERY south near the NC border and another NORTH of Lynchburg near Charlottesville. We could verify on the low end of the 3-6 inches.

3. I think the worst ice falls in a triangle from near Lynchburg to Charlottesville to Winchester.

4. The window for snow is about 12-15 hours. After the transition to sleet and then freezing rain precipitation stops. This lasts for about 8 hours. During this time, light freezing drizzle will be falling.

5. Between 4 am and 7 am, places most places make it above freezing JUST as some very heavy rain comes in. Rainfall, falling as just rain could reach up to an inch.

Cold air damming.

Cold air damming (No, not what you want to say to the cold when it's 5 degrees outside) is cold air being trapped against the MTS, preventing it from leaving. Cold air is heavier than warmer air and is hard to dislodge. Sometimes once you're just 500 feet up, it's above freezing but down near the ground it's cold.

Here is a 4pm map Monday, you can see the cold air holding WAY down to near Charlotte.

At 1 Am Tuesday, It's getting smaller.

and at 4 am most places are above Freezing.

What saves us from a REALLY bad ice storm is that the cold are finally breaks down as some heavy rain approaches from the west. Most of the time from 4pm or so until 1 am will be light freezing drizzle. Here is SIM radar at 1 PM monday, most of the precipitation as moved out.

And at 7 PM

Finally, 1 AM

We are fortunate that for 12 hours we have temps in the mid and upper 20's and it's just light freezing drizzle. Once that heavy band moves in, we are above freezing in about 2-3 hours. This is preventing a significant ice event. Places east of the Blue Ridge may see 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from that band. With temps in the mid 40's Tuesday afternoon, we could see about a total melt off.

Bigger than Michael J Fox and Celine Dion.

2016-02-13T06:31:00.000-05:00

Jim Carey, Wayne Gretzky, Justin Bieber, this storm?

MOST of the model data agrees with the colder part of the storm. Snow moves in overnight Sunday and lasts till Noonish Monday before mixing and changing to sleet and freezing rain. Freezing rain and sleet change over sometime Monday evening or overnight into Tuesday.

The Canadian keeps the cold locked in longer, keeps the low south and dumps 12-16 inches region wide. If anything like the Canadian happens, move over Wayne Gretzky, we have another Great One!

The Euro still wants to drive the low pressure into the mountains and swing it over our heads directly.

My take is both models are having issues.

There is some divergence still on the storm track of the main low, with the european STILL driving the low across the mountains at an odd angle and REALLY warming things up. My take is to blend the models and really keep close to my forecast from yesterday.

Most places- Snow Develops near midnight Sunday. Snow lasts till about Noon Monday and then mixes and changes to sleet and then freezing rain by mid afternoon. Ice takes over and lasts till near Midnight Tuesday. Rain ends by Noon Tuesday.

Snowfall totals :Draw a line from Martinsville to Chatham 1-4 inches Southeast of that line. Everywhere else NORTH of that line 3-6 inches. A few spots may get up to 8 inches especially in the Mountains or where some heavier bands set up.

Something to watch would be a thin heavier band setting up somewhere. One run of the NAM model had it along 460 from Blacksburg to Farmville and dumped 6-10 inches really fast. For you NFL fans, if you think of the SnowGlobe game between the Eagles and Lions a few years ago, a 1-3 inch snowfall became 6-9 in a few hours from a band like that. As we get closer to this event, the high resolution models COULD pick up on something like this.

Ice Accumulations: .10 to .25 inches. Some minor power outages likely, but I think we warm just enough before heavier rain gets in PLUS temps push towards freezing quickly where freezing rain and 32 is not as bad as 26 and freezing rain.

Not a bad event and I have some work to do on my winter snowfall totals, so I'll take what I can get.

Our warm up is a bit delayed from this storm but we do get a few nice days over the weekend NEXT week with temps in the 60's.

I think Feb 24th through March 10th or so look cold/ stormy and gives me a shot a verifying my winter snow totals. I'd take that shot rather than having NO shot at all.

A Model Idiot?

2016-02-12T07:18:00.002-05:00

The models are struggling with this event and it's not unexpected. With VERY cold air in place, being dislodged as the storm comes in, the models are struggling. I expect the models to trend much colder as we approach this event.

at 84 hours, here is the GFS (American model) It's trying to hold cold air in place to the east, but eroding it to the west. As a result, it's 31 in Richmond with snow and 40 with Rain in Roanoke (1pm Monday) This never happens.

At this point, there has been a couple of inches of snow.

Here is the NAM at the same time.

The wedge is in much better shape and we've had as modeled, 3-6 inches in our region. What happens is warmed air overruns the cold air trapped against the mountains. This reinforces the cold air to hold in place longer. It would infer that snow would be here sooner and heavier.

There should be some type of a 30 mile wide band of heavy snow that develops. Being on the southern fringe 84 hours, may not bode well BUT once it gets a full grip on the cold air in place, it may actually trend south before it trends north again.

What does this mean?

Snow starts after midnight Monday west and races east by 3 AM (Lynchburg area) Monday is pretty snowy, could be heavy at times with 1-3 near the VA/NC state line, mixing early and 3-6 HWY 460 north. This will eventually mix and change to freezing rain from 460 north and back to I-81. Could be as early as early evening Monday, could be as late as Midnight. I think we stay below freezing until Tuesday AM. If we change early that 1-3 south, 3-6 north will be the ballpark of total snow. IF we can cling to snow until Midnight or later, those totals could double. Then we tack on some sleet and freezing rain.

Here is a sounding at 84 for LYH (1pm Monday). I've circled the temps.. the lower you go on the chart I posted, the higher the you are in the sky. You see some temps between -1.5 and -2. I suspect the warmth comes in the area that is near -3. I would suspect this is at least a few more hours of snow. Height in second column is elevation in meters. This model isn't great at 84 hours, but I think the better resolution is catching on sooner.

I will continue to tweet out thoughts as model runs continue. I do have growing concerns about power issues in the Roanoke and Lynchburg area. Even if we just get 3-6 inches of snow and then freezing rain, the weight of the snow PLUS adding on ice could be BIG trouble for trees and power lines. Double those snow totals and it's even worse

One half second too slow, too fast and you don't quite catch it...

2016-02-11T02:01:00.000-05:00

Long day of glancing at the models in between working hours ends with no clear idea. In the end, it's all about timing.

The model runs that are faster with the storm, bring us the most snow. The models that are slower, because the cold air is fleeing fast end up icy and rainy. I just saw the euro and it's a nice compromise compared to where it was before.

The fast models bring in snow before sunrise Monday and lasts most of the day. By evening, ice has reached Lynchburg and the worst ends by pre dawn, if not sooner. (Little moisture left by 1 am, I imagine Freezing drizzle falling most of the night) Temps are well below Freezing as the storm ends.

The slower runs at times hold off the snow until Monday evening and then quickly break down the cold air wedge, going from a little snow to ice and then rain. Some of those runs have the bulk of the rain being Tuesday when the cold air is all but gone.

The key because the cold air is leaving is the speed of the storm. The slower solutions do end up with more total precipitation because the flow of moisture last longer.

So:

Fast solution: Snow develops pre dawn and snows all day. Mixing first southside, then Lynchburg late afternoon finally into the Roanoke and NRV as it ends, 2-4 southside with ice, 3-6 LYH with ice, 5-10 with ice Blue Ride West. Storm is gone shortly after midnight, but I imagine some freezing drizzle and flurries could linger over night.

Slow Solution. Flurries afternoon Monday, some snow early evening and then ice into the overnight, could be heavy, eventually flipping to rain. The further north and west you get, the more accumulations you get. If this pans out, I would see southside with little or no snow and some ice, LYH at 1-2 inches at BEST of snow and ice ending as rain Tuesday. Roanoke 3-6 with ice ending as rain Tuesday. These solutions linger rain or possibly ice into Tuesday Afternoon.

It's about a 12 hour difference in timing. We could blend these two ideas as our final outcome.

No real model consistency, but I just saw the euro and after being the SLOW solution, it has gone to the fast solution. The PARA Euro, (Upgraded version, still in beta testing) has somewhat this look. I won't see the Para until after 8am or so tomorrow. Before the euro, I was hedging a stronger front running Monday, a break and then more ice Monday night, but the Euro is a nice compromise. Euro has most places over to ice by 7pm Monday, but it was a healthy 3-4 inches southside, to 5-6 near LYH to 5-10 western regions.

For those worried about power outages if we see big ice, I don't think this is a set up for widespread power issues. Usually you'd want to see moderate freezing rain for house with temps holding mid 20's or below. This would have temps in the mid 20's sky rocketing towards freezing fast and HEAVY stuff falling. Yes, it would have SOME power outages, but it won't be 1994 all over again.

I'll tweet out something when I see the PARA Euro between 8 and 9 am tomorrow.

Let me elaborate on Single Digit Cold and Double Digit Snows..

2016-02-09T07:54:00.001-05:00

And how the Euro backed off a little last night.

We will get some very cold temps this week.

First, the event yesterday went as predicted with some rain, a little snow and temps did bottom out last night below freezing so watch out for black ice. A few flurries are possible today, maybe even a snow shower.

The euro yesterday showed low temps Sunday below 10 most regions and then a NICE storm that dumped double digit snows in our region. Last night's run had lows closer to 10, with the snow more like 6-8 inches and ending as ice places east of the Blue Ridge (Lynchburg and Danville)

Other models: GFS had a weak low to our north while the Canadian (CMC) had a look close the the Euro.

Take Aways: We will have some serious cold. The storm has some issues with cold air leaving, timing where if it's a day late we get nothing and there is ANOTHER short wave (Energy aloft) right behind it. The Euro ensembles look better for snow than they did noon yesterday, but are not perfect and I've not seen the PARA euro (new version of euro in beta phase) missed off the coast yesterday.

I would classify this as the "monitor" phase.. not a threat phase yet. If it comes to fruition, it will be a Monday possible ending Tuesday, but a fast mover.

The big warm up and then?? Historical snows in LYH over 10 inches.

2016-01-27T23:03:00.002-05:00

We will get a NICE warmup a few days next week and other then the MEGA MALL snow piles, the snow will be gone.

A few thoughts..

Our official snowfall from the last event was 10.1. WSET takes those totals. I'd argue it's a inch low. They "only" said we had a half inch of sleet and it was a good 1.5 inches total from when I cleared to when it mixed to when it went back to all snow. I think some of the wrap around snow blew away and they wiped the board to late after the mix with sleet.

Kevin Myatt from the Roanoke times had a blog about big snow events since 1947..

Roanoke's foot-plus snows since 1947

Feb. 20, 1947: 14.5 inches

Feb. 13-14, 1960: 15.7 inches

March 2-3, 1960: 17.4 inches

Feb. 7-8, 1961: 14.2 inches

Jan. 22-23, 1966: 13.7 inches

Jan. 29-30, 1966: 12.3 inches

Dec. 25-26, 1969: 16.4 inches

Feb. 10-11, 1983: 18.6 inches

Jan. 25-26, 1987: 13.9 inches

March 12-13, 1993: 16.0 inches

Jan. 6-7, 1996: 24.9 inches

Feb. 2-3, 1996: 12.2 inches

Dec. 18-19, 2009: 17.8 inches

Feb. 12-13, 2014: 19.0 inches

Jan. 22-23, 2016: 13.0 inches

Close, but not quite

Jan. 13-14, 1968: 11.7 inches

Feb. 27-28, 1982: 11.4 inches

Jan. 22, 1987: 11.0 inches

Dec. 7, 1995: 10.2 inches

They have 19 double digit storms since 1947..

I'm going to lower the bar to 10 inches and compile the same list of LYH.

January 6-7 1996 21.1

Match 5-7 1962 17.7

Feb 11-12 1983 14.6

Jan 31-Feb 1 1948 14.5

Feb 28-March 1 1969 13.7

March 12-13 1993 13.0

Feb 13-14 1960 12.8

Dec 25-26 1969 12.7

Jan 22-23 2016 10.1

Feb 12-13 2014 10.0

Jan 30 2010 11.4

Dec 18-19 2009 12.5

March 1-2 2009 10

Feb 1-2 1996 11.2

2-27-1982 11.7

Jan 22 1987 12.2

Jan 25-26 1987 12

Feb 16-17 1987 11

March 2-3 1960 12.1

Jan 25-26 1966 10

Jan 29-30 1966 10.9

Dec 23-24 1966 10

Feb 15 1958 11.9

Lynchburg has 23 double digit storms in the same time frame. They have quite a few bigger storms, but I think we catch a few coastal bonus inches here and there and grab a few extra storms that reach double digits.

Looking at those stats:

LYH gets a double digit storm every 3 years while ROA has to wait every 4 years.

HOWEVER, storms over 15 inches happen every 10 years on average in Roanoke but every 30+ years in LYH.

LYH cashes in on some coastals that Roanoke doesn't quite make double digits, while the BIGGER more wrapped up events tend to give Roanoke higher accumulations.

We warm up after the weekend and then another BIG cold shot comes in. Looking at some patter ideas.. between February 6 and 10th may be or next storm window. From our good friend DT at Wxrisk.. some of the model data isn't that far off pattern wise from our BIG event that just passed.

That 5 days will be colder than the 5 days near our big event. At times, the pattern looking 2 weeks out has also resembled our 2 week stretch last year that had 22 inches of snow in 10 days. Point being, we don't know the fine details at all but the likelihood of cold/snow and ice are likely on the way back after a brief respite. Will start to tweet out if interesting model data comes out and will update every 2-3 days on pattern ideas until our next threat.

Post storm wrap up.. Important, read and share.

2016-01-23T19:41:00.004-05:00

This storm has been fantastic. Hey, I love snow likely more than all of my readers and really wanted a record. Still, 10-12 inches across Lynchburg, more west in Roanoke and less in Danville is a big deal.

I will record this as 11.5..

7 inches before sleet mixed in.
1.5 sleet/sleet mixed with snow (Cleared snow board)
3 inches of snow after.

It compacted and drifted.The last bit of snow was good ratio stuff and blew around and compacted quickly.

The models did great in the BIG details days out. True story, I bought my one son boots who didn't have it when I saw this on the models 10 days out. My daughter also asked to travel with a cheer team to Hampton Roads area and said sure, but I think it's going to snow and be cancelled anyways.

So, in that essence good call.

What happened to the BIG totals?

Short answer is we only had a liquid total of 1.29 in Lynchburg , 1.59 in Roanoke and 1.03 in Danville. Most model data was between 1.75 and 2.5 or greater.

We knew sleet was a threat. Dry slots.. always happen. We got them both and it doomed even a top 10 event.

Funny that all model data, even the "NAM" (North most model" had 15 inches, GFS had 24 and Euro had backed off to 20-21 inches or so.

WHY?

1. Sleet.. We knew it would mix or get close. If we had gotten the nearly 2 inches of liquid We'd of ended up with 18 inches or so.
2. Dry slot.. The storm "jumped" to near the GA/SC coast early on but the development process took longer, When the sleet mixed in there was strong echoes to our east near Richmond and another band that hit us with the heavy sleet. Those bands somewhat died as the coastal cranked up and pulled our bands out quickly. I had anticipated we'd maybe mix we sleet, but we had very little relative precipitation in this time after the sleet burst. I thought, and the models showed us going right from the warm air snows to the "coastal" snows and that simply didn't happen.

Part one of the storm.. 4-8 inches, we got 7, Middle part.. I thought We'd snag 8-12 and we got 1.5. Part three once the coastal cranked up I thought 2-4 and we got 3. Middle part killed us.

Lessons learned:
Speaking of Lynchburg- our snow history is full of storms between 10-12 inches that were big, but not historic. Since 2009, we've had storms of 10, 12.5, 10 and today will officially via WSET be 10.1.

Since as far back as we have records: We have 3 storms over 15 inches "officially" Blizzard of 1996 at 21.2, Knickerbocker storm in 1922 at 20.2 and Ash Wednesday at 17.9. There are 3 clustered between 13 and 14.9 and then an overkill of storms between 10 and 12 inches (Double digits always seems impressive.)

Considering this, It would have been more prudent to stay in the 10-18 inch range on most forecasts for LYH and DAN. People hear 14-24 and think 24, not 14.

Roanoke has some higher ended totals and 2 top 5 storms in the past 6 years, but still coming out bigger than 18 isn't common and likely destined to fail.

Letting the public know what is on the way when 2 inches shuts the city down is what is important, nothing more. It's always better to go UP in totals, not down as the event approaches. 12-18 conveys a BIG event and hedging for more possible is quite enough considering we've had 5-6 storms that were clearly above 13 inches in 120 years. So, I will only go 12-18 total snows in LYH and DAN next big threat. Roanoke-- Likely the same call. NRV and 81 away from the city is a different ball game.

Be easy on your weather guys- they worked hard on this storm and all storms.

Moving forward: Watching a system late next week. Not NEARLY as locked in on our area as this one because cold air may be the missing ingredient. Looks like a fast mover if it does come to fruition.

After that- I think we get a nice 2 to 3 week break from colder temps. I don't think we end up as warm as Christmas, but I don't foresee much to track in that time frame.

I'm not convinced winter comes back in that time frame as February 15-20 winter COULD return for one last blast through early March. e have mixed signals on that, but the potential is there for another 10 day stretch with a couple of possible threats.
In e

Sleet has mixed in Lynchburg.

2016-01-22T16:47:00.002-05:00

I'm not sure what to thing-- it's a couple hours faster than modeled. However, thundersnow has broken out N of Charlotte. Once the system matures, we should mix out this warm later. I'm not 100% how this all plays out and I've tried to convey this all along.

I've got 7 and head reports of 7-9 all over the area so far.

Prepare to qualify...

2016-01-22T06:46:00.000-05:00

Storm day is here and it's going to be a big one. I think we all want to see a top 3, if not BIGGEST storm ever in the region.

Snow was a little faster getting here, already a half inch or more in Roanoke and should be starting in Lynchburg soon.

No changes to my snow totals. I like where the models are.

Today- Snow, heavy at times. Best snows will be an inch an hour or so. 6-10 inches
This evening. Snow heavy at times.. there will be a BIG band that works through. If this band maxes out here, this is the difference between 16 inches or 24. Some of the data showed this thing putting down 10 inches or so in 3 hours. That's 3 inches an hour for you math buffs.
Snow winds down towards 4-5 am or so. 8-14 inches.

Tomorrow- light snow and flurries, occasional moderate bursts. 1-4 inches additional.

Slight sleet threat in LYH, likely some sleet in Danville, east. Total 14-24 inches, locally higher. Danville east 10-18

Will toss out updates all day in between sledding and other fun activities. The sleet threat is greatest 5pm till 10pm..

Shovels will be splintered, Scrapers will be shattered, records could be broken..

2016-01-21T05:59:00.001-05:00

Much of the fun of snow storms to me is the tracking. The kid in me still gets excited when it when the first flakes fall, there isn't much I enjoy more than taking my kids sledding, and snow on the ground despite the cold makes me happy. BUT, when I get a good feel for what as storm is going to do and it behaves reasonably within those parameters and it such a good feeling.

We don't know the ending yet and last nights model runs are like a good movie-- you think you know what's going to happen but you're not quite sure. Looking at the set up way back Monday- I said the storm would trend colder HERE and they did. Now, we just sort out the details.

There are 3 major models I check (and a couple other I glance at) plus a few short term models that are important the last 24-48 hours. I don't just look at snow maps. I track surface lows, 500 MB lows, jet streams, 700mb vertical velocities.. and my favorite, soundings/Skew T to get a feel for the temps of the atmosphere all layers up to the clouds. Soundings are very important to figure out snow/sleet mix times.

Model data is VERY good agreement- Low pressure forms and once it's near NE Alabama it jumps quickly to the South Carolina coast and heads northeast to near Wilmington, NC to a point right off the VA/NC coast and heads East Northeast from there. The Euro finally stopped putting out 30 inch snowfalls and is in a more reasonable 20 to 25 inch range, the GFS had an epic run of 25 inches and other data falls in that range too.

I've mentioned the Euro model a lot. Last night's run was a more reasonable 21 inches. Our record snowfall is 21.2. Now, I REALLY want a record. That 21 inches is on a straight 10-1 ratio. If we get some fluff, we could see 25 from it. Here is the Euro with a snow algorithm that accounts for ratios.

If that happens, we set a standard not seen for over a 100 years in our area.

Here is a rough sketch of what I think happens over most of VA...

Most areas 14-24 inches, Locally higher. Some sleet may mix Friday evening . Danville to South Hill 10-18 inches, sleet will mix in. South East of Richmond, some snow falls but it does change to ice then rain, before ending as snow. They should see 3-6 total and have some sad kids who just want snow.

Snow start time is between 5-7 am in the west and 9 to 11 in the Lynchburg region.

Two things that could go wrong:

1. We sleet more. Only one model has a warm layer and it's not that bad and mixes out quickly. If data moves this way, we'd have to evaluate totals in those regions.

2. We dry slot too soon. All mature lows develop a dry slot. This is modeled to stay to our south and east, but always worth watching.

How to break the record:

1. No sleet. Obviously.

2. Cool some layers of the atmosphere to maximize snow growth.

3. Deformation zone. The epic runs of the Euro and GFS had a deformation zone (Cold conveyor belt) of snows that linger over our area. These are great ratio snows that are often 15-1 or more ratio snows.

I don't make final calls. This is a living document and if we need to adapt, we will.

My exact guesses:

Blacksburg 23 inches

Roanoke 21.5

Lynchburg 19.1

Danville 14.2

Thanks for the shares on FB/Twitter. We set a daily view record yesterday. I will continue the live tweets/ FB during model runs. May blog again later tonight but they end up not being read much storm days. Share your pics, measurements and observations on FB/ Twitter.

Historic Storm on the Way..

2016-01-20T06:00:00.000-05:00

No way around this one... A serious assault on the top 10 snowfalls of all time in Lynchburg, Roanoke, Blacksburg and MAYBE even Danville is on the way.

The one word that will prevent us from breaking a top 10 event is SLEET. IF we avoid sleet JUST enough, a top tier event is likely. The top storm in Roanoke is 24.9 from the Blizzard of 96 while in Lynchburg is 21.2 also from that event. 13. 8 inches is needed in Roanoke for a top 10 storm while 12.8 is needed in Lynchburg.

In a stroke of common sense, the snowiest models have the least amount of sleet. The Euro model, which has trended colder and more south as it passes our area has NO sleet. The Canadian has no sleet as well on it's last run. The GFS and NAM have moved away from sleet mixing but still have some sleet. The Euro has 4 runs in a row had our snow totals of north of 2 feet, even 30 inches a few times. For my long time readers, you know I am very methodical about tracking the sleet and ice line. With that, the GFS and NAM have been very sleety, but have the most north track as well. AS they have moved towards more southern track of the Euro as it passes our region, we've seen a reduction in sleet. This will be a key to our forecast.

This is the most extreme solution offered by the Euro. This has a special algorithm that accounts for sleet, snow ratio's etc. This could be offered as "maxing out" this event, but wow, setting a record in Lynchburg may not be that difficult. 21. 3 inches needed. Getting to 30, even 34 is amazing. Going frame by frame on the models, we have a burst where in 6 hours Friday night about an inch of liquid falls. My hunch is that may be over done a bit.

I may draw a rough map, but this is my rough ideas now, Remember, I like to go UP as an event gets closer and not down in snowfall forecasts.

Roanoke, Blackburg and Lynchburg= 12 to 20 inches. Some sleet could mix in. At this point, that mix with sleet would be the difference between 12 and 20 inches. If your area does not see sleet, 20 inches is the preferred total. Higher amounts possible where the best banding sets up.

Southside- Martinsville area 10-16 inches, some sleet will likely mix.
Danville area 8-14 inches. More sleet mixes
South Boston 6-12 inches, even MORE sleet

Repeat: If any one place doesn't see sleet.. including southside, something near 20 inches is a likely total.

Timing: The storm is likely taking a more southern path to a point off of Cape Hatteras late Friday night. This path has slowed our start time down a bit to Friday Morning. Far west regions as early as 5 am and far east times east of Lynchburg as late as 10am or so. The storm should last into Saturday before it winds down Saturday afternoon. The worst of the storm will be Friday evening into overnight. Outside shot with a rapidly deepening low and strong upper air energy approaching that a rumble of thunder is heard too.

We won't have the needed winds for "blizzard" warnings but this will be a high impact event.

Obviously, school will be closed Friday. Most churches will be closed over the weekend.

This afternoon a small system will approach and could give us flurries to a coating. A coating after a few cold days if often a recipe for disaster, so be cautious on the roads if you do see some flakes falling.

Monday and Tuesday high temps go back into the low and mid 40's so a realistic shot schools open by Wednesday, possible Tuesday if we get the lower end amounts.

I will continue my tweets/posting as model runs come out. I'll be more specific and target information about possible sleet mixing and amounts. Please share this blog with your friends and families!

Morning update...

2016-01-19T07:27:00.001-05:00

I actually got a good nights sleep, which is a nice change for me when a storm approaches. I'm sure you all have seen some of the crazy outputs from the Euro, which 2 runs in a row CLOCKED us. One run had over 30 inches and one had 25 inches. Other model runs have had good snows 6-12 inches, but they mix with sleet/rain for a while.

Cracking the code on these to me comes from understanding the physical evolution of the storm. I think I have a decent grasp on that now. The american model which has a decent snow for us 6-10 inches, but a ton of mixing. I believe this is because of the warmer look of the model, which doesn't force it to transfer to the coastal low fast enough. I think that's wrong because the short term models are just getting a view of this thing in the 70-84 hour range and they are colder. This cold air is what forces that low to redevelop quickly.

We end up with 2 waves of snow. Wave one is overnight Thursday into Friday morning. 1-3, maybe 2-4 inches falls. As it ends, we mix with some sleet. Danville and southside had more sleet, less accumulations and maybe even some rain. The lull could be as long as 4-5 hours from late morning to mid afternoon.

Coastal takes over pretty quickly and a HUGE wave comes through.. THIS is where we get the big accumulations. This snow could last until Saturday morning, with it being a 30 hour event.

Here is a SIM radar at hour 84... it's from the NAM..

Note how there is one area to our northeast and we are in a relative minimum area. At this time, 1PM Friday some light snow, sleet and freezing rain is falling. You also see that HUGE area to our southwest moving in. We've basically had a burst of warm air advection snow/sleet and coastal jump is happening now.

That map shows a broad area of low pressure from Eastern TN down into FL.. this is what the euro shows but you're not allowed to post the pay maps I get. In the next map on the euro, there is a nice consolidated area of low pressure near Myrtle beach and heavy snow has moved back in to our region. Places that have mixed all along like Danville have changed to heavy snow.

I'm not going full Euro and predicting 24-30 inches, but I think we do very well. Even the warmer/slower transfer GFS has us getting 6-12 inches with a mix for an extended period. All areas will see some what of a mix late morning, mid day Friday but the big show is when the coastal cranks up Friday afternoon and evening.

Let's revist floors and ceilings...

The Floor for Roanoke/Blacksburg and Lynchburg has been moved to 5 inches. I'd be shocked if we saw less than 5 inches. The ceiling 20 or more. Most likely, playing it safe is in the 10-15 inch range. Please remember that I always start low on snow totals and then go bigger. If A forecast is for 1-2 feet, and you get 12 inches, people feel let down. So, we start small and then massage totals as needed as more information is available.

Danville/Southside. The floor is 3 inches. I worry that Bug Island, South Hill could check in just under that total but we can adapt as we get closer. The ceiling is a foot or more. Most likely totals in the 6-12 inch range, highest Danville West to Martinsville, lower South Boston to South Hill. Again, subject to change.

Will tweet and fb updates as model runs come in. Please share with your friends.

You Get Nothing!

2016-01-18T21:25:00.001-05:00

How I feel waiting for the next round of models... Euro trended colder as I suspected and had a CRAZY output where everything went perfect and it "modeled" 30 inches of snow. DT from Wxrisk posted the map. I still have concerns over the amount of mixing that takes places. Would be the difference between 3 to 6 with sleet and rain or 8-12 or more. Will do full synoptic update later this evening or early tomorrow.

The BIG storm: What we know..... and what we don't know??

2016-01-17T19:14:00.000-05:00

Social Media has been blowing up all day about the POSSIBLE big storm. Let's break down the details with What we know...and what we don't know??

What we know!

1. Cold Monday and Tuesday where temps don't get above Freezing most areas.
2. We will have a storm Thursday into Saturday Time Frame.
3. I expect Lynchburg, Danville, Roanoke and Blacksburg to have at least an inch of liquid fall (Could be snow, ice, rain)
4. Starting time could be as early as 9pm Thursday evening far western regions and as late as 9am Friday far eastern regions.

What we don't know??

1. Snow amounts. Social media will be flooded with maps from XYZ run of whatever model. There are so many issues with them I don't know where to start. 5 days out, we don't know yet. Remember, now we look broad and get specific as the event gets closer.
2. Exact storm track.. This is HUGE and ties into number one. Remember we want to be on the cold side of the low. This means the north and west side.. the model runs that take the low into Kentucky are NOT great for our region. My guess is a somewhere into Georgia, reforming near Myrtle Beach, but that's an educated guess. If a primary low drives UP into Kentucky, we are icy and rainy.
3, Exactly how much cold air will be in place and then reinforcing during the event. Antecedent cold air is very important for a big storm. However, getting cold air funneled in as the storm progresses is also important. Remember our Presidents day storm last year. We had snow and 12 degrees and it changed to sleet-- we had no cold air reinforcing the mid levels. Model data has trended a bit colder and I think this may continue for another day.

Wow, you said a lot of nothing...

YES I DID!

I can speculate a little. This is speculation and will change. My goal will be to create a framework and then fill in the fine details as the event gets closer.

1. I believe the models will trend colder over the next day and give a decent idea of what to expect. The warmer models have stepped towards the colder models and the colder models conceded a few points and it's slowly coming together. The ensembles (same model run at lower resolution with some intentional changes added to weed out biases) have been more south and colder than the "operational" runs.

2. Once the models bottom out cold/south track wise- we see what corrections will be made back north and warmer.

3. Basement and ceiling for main locations...

Roanoke/Blacksburg- Lumped in together because this has some marks of an I-81 special. The floor of snow and ice accumulations is 2 inches with a ton of ice and freezing rain mixed in. The ceiling is a storm of over a foot or maybe more. Their odds of over a foot of snow is HIGHEST at this point. I'd estimate 40% at this point.

Lynchburg- Basement is the same 2 inches of sleet, snow and slush. Ceiling is also over a foot of snow or more but the odds are much lower at only 25 %. Their 40% number is 8 inches.

Danville and Southside- Basement is a coating of slush and sleet, ceiling is also a foot but odds are down at under 10%. Their 40% number is 6 inches.

As we move closer, I will update and refine to give more details. We will be moving from broad to specific.
Please share my blog on FB/Twitter. If you like what you read, click and add--- I do get paid for that. :)

I'll continue to live tweet thoughts and progression during model run times. Feel free to retweet or ask me questions.

First Measurable snow of the season likely tomorrow.. Friday looking healthy!

2016-01-16T14:19:00.001-05:00

Now, Measurable means more than a trace. I think most places see a coating to an inch starting near sunrise and ending early afternoon. A few lucky places, best shot from the VA/NC border to 460 could see up 2 inches.. depending on where banding sets up.

Friday's event looks better. Our problem getting snow has been that the flow is fast with many moving pieces, which prevents cold from meeting storms. (Adding many shortwaves working against each other)

It seems like the cold air SHOULD be in place as a low approaches from the west Friday...

3 options...

The Canadian model cuts the storm well to our west, we have some cold air and should get a snow to sleet and ice event, maybe even rain for awhile. Shows big snows JUST north of here (Staunton north, Up 81 into PA)

The GFS (American model) storm cuts west but reforms south. We flirt with the rain/snow ice for a while in the event but still see a pretty big event. Not throwing out snow totals but it would be nice event.

Euro- more suppressed with the event and the storm goes out to sea we are on the northern fringe. Possible low Warning event (3-6 inch range type deal)

Looking at the pattern, I think we trend more towards what the Euro shows at this point. The GFS was a HUGE event, but in part was overdone because the cut west held on too long and pulled in a lot of warm air, making more precipitation. Still, Gulf Lows always have good potential.

Cold weather this week-- 2 days won't get above freezing. (Monday, Tuesday) and Friday may not if the ice/snow comes early enough.

Powerball number ideas for snowlovers!

2016-01-09T07:29:00.001-05:00

If you'd love to win the powerball and you like snow-- here are some numbers to play.

We have three threats to watch: Jan 15, 18 and 21.

Add in 58 and 66 for the blocky stronger el Nino years that were snowy here in Lynchburg, Roanoke, Danville and Blacksburg. (15,18, 21, 58, 66)

3 for your money ball for 3 threats.

We could have 3 events, (Unlikely) We could have NO events, (Unlikely) For our specific region, a good guess at this point is that we get one decent event out of the 3 and one that flirts with us. Decent doesn't JUST mean snow. Could be snow, ice ..etc.

What could go wrong?

We have many moving pieces between the northern jet and the subtropical jet. The models have not resolved any of these pieces and much can go wrong still. The Euro model last night has us on the fringe of 2 events, the 15th and the 18th.. and with that being 7 and 10 days away I'd take those solutions at run with it because stronger events just about always trend north. As of now, the Crush NC and parts of eastern VA. However, with fast moving pieces, the energy CAN get shredded and the northern branch COULD crush the southern branch.

As the model run ends day 10, the 18th storm is east of Hatteras and one more threat can be seen emerging from the 4 corner regions.

My 1966 analog has been front and center on the Super Ensemble page and some of the less snowy 1998 analogs are showing up still, but have dropped on the rankings.

We could also see some light snow and flurries for a period Tuesday. Not a big event, but perhaps a warning shot much like we had on Valentines day last year.

*** Read this closely: I'm not forecasting 3 storms. I am creating awareness of 3 possible events. That means we could get 1, 2, 3 or NONE of these events ***

I'll start to FB and Tweet out more specific information about model runs over the next few days. You can follow me personally, my Lynchburg Weather Page or LynchburgWx twitter handle.

** read this carefully** Don't fall for the schmucks putting computer generated snow maps 5 to 10 days out on facebook. It's such a bad practice. Feel free to ask me, and they can be very fun to look at BUT they create bad expectations and are hard to work around because of the expectations people feel from them.

Please continue to share me on FB and twitter. I'm not "buying" false likes, I'm earning them.

If I could update my Winter 2015-2016 outlook-- I would change??

2016-01-06T21:30:00.000-05:00

At this point, NOTHING!

Look, I blew December. I figured there'd be a warm spell. No idea it be a top 2 warmest Christmas week ever and the warmest December on record by 5-6 degrees most areas. Simple didn't see that and even if I did, I'd have tempered it back because that was such a rare event.

The meat of my forecast was Slightly above normal snowfall, centered from Late January till Middle to late February. The "Godzilla" El Nino is making the pattern look different than last year, but in a "sensible weather" (AKA, what you get outside") may not be off that far from last year where we had some colder temps, but the bulk of the snow fell in 2-3 weeks. (Subtract the -10 temp departure and make it -3 to -5 for a 30 day period. )

I still like that Jan 20th ish till Mid February Time frame for the bulk of our winter. I still like my original numbers which are WinterOutlook

Lynchburg 20-25 inches. Roanoke 25-30 inches, Blacksburg 30-40 inches, Danville 10-20 inches.

Now, there is never a sure thing and somethings can still go wrong. I want to show you the Super Ensemble matching dates for 11 days from now

This is a 500 MB map. Pay no attention.. Look at the dates on the lower right hand side. They "match" 5 day patterns from 11 days out. Those dates are clustered..

2 dates in 1983 where we were 2-3 weeks away from a HUGE snow storm. (but not that close that this pattern mattered)

4 dates in 1998-- 3 are close to 2 big Nor Easters. the first one was a HUGE Mountain snow storm that just missed LYH, and changed to Rain in Roanoke and the second was a near miss, but so close too.

Random 06 date that did nothing.

1978 2 days before a HUGE blizzard to our Northeast.

1958 2 weeks before a BIG snowstorm.

1966-- A day in between 2 storms that dumped a collected 2 feet on our area, 12 or so each event.

Point being, we are entering into a "loaded" pattern that still has a legit shot to verify my outlook snow wise. Temperatures, no way to recover from that +12 last month, but I think we do finish January below normal and likely February too.

With that, you can see how some analogs years LOOKED close with the pattern but did not deliver. 1998 downfall was cold air.. and I looking at the arctic oscillation I think that's not going to be a problem. If a pattern like this holds on long enough, eventually it will deliver something to our region.

Speaking of the arctic oscillation, it looks to drop VERY low and when it does, it tends to drop that low again not soon after. Remember that a POSITIVE AO tends to keep the cold air bottled up in the Arctic Region and the Negative Phase is a "weaker polar vortex" which pushes cold air AWAY from the north pole and down to the middle latitudes where we live. This supports my idea of a nice 20 day run of winter. So, Martin Luther King day and forward, I am expecting my pattern to deliver and there is actually a "chance" middle of next week something brings us a little snow or ice.

Last idea and then I'll let you be. Don't trust anyone who puts "weather" in a Facebook page. Outside of the "news media" there are very few places I would trust. If anyone posts a map of snowfall totals for 2-3 weeks out, my suggesting is to not follow them. ONE run of any model can get you any solution, especially 12 days out. I don't mind questions being asked to me ever.. you all know I love this stuff. However, I want my readers to be educated enough to know that people who post hype are not good follows.

Weather for Santa's ride and other medium range outlook.

2015-12-24T08:51:00.002-05:00

I've gotten several texts, calls and messages asking why I've not updated. Here is the skinny-- When the weather is boring and warm, I usually won't update. Your local TV guy, app does a decent job telling you to expect 55 and sunny. The blog is dusted off when winter weather is approaching or worth discussing.

Crazy warm today- likely near record level today and a tad cooler but not much cooler Christmas day.

Now, I did expect a warmer than normal December but NOT this warm. We are 8.5 degrees above normal in Lynchburg and 7.9 degrees normal in Roanoke.

When will the pattern change?

We should start to regress back towards normal temps by the New Year. I'm not sure if this is short term 7-10 days or a longer range shift. It's typical for El Nino winters to have second half loaded winters, as mentioned in my winter outlook. There is some reason to "hope" for winter weather in that period.

We are seeing a "disruption" in the force so to speak which should disturb the polar vortex. This should allow for some colder weather by Jan 20th or so as previously discussed in our winter outlook.

Merry Christmas to all!

Official 2015-2016 Winter Outlook

2015-11-04T06:04:00.001-05:00

I'll give you the quick outline of how I think this winter turns out and then do some "splaining" about why and how I got there.

Winter snow totals: Lynchburg 20-25 inches. Roanoke 25-30 inches, Blacksburg 30-40 inches, Danville 10-20 inches.

Month Temps: December Normal to +1, January +2 February -2 to -4
Seasonal Average 0 to +1

Summary :Winter temps slightly above normal, snowfall above normal.

If I use a term and you don't know what it is, GOOGLE it.

Discussion:
The "Godzilla El Nino" as labeled has behaved as expected and it makes for somewhat of challenging forecast. There are honestly quite a few good reasons why going warmer and less snow is not a bad call including the QBO and some calculated risks about what the El Nino will do.

Remember.. Western Based El Nino's are usually colder with more snow, while eastern based tend to be much warmer with less snow. Basin wide events are less frequent and have mixed results. We currently have a basin wide el nino, stronger in the west but not much stronger. The overall belief seems to be that it will trend more west based and then weaken, but not sure exactly when. This is a key factor to a later winter surge of cold and snow.

As a result, hedging on things that we are not certain about is always a risk and needs to be treated that way.

The QBO is measurement of winds in the tropical stratosphere and a negative reading favors high latitude blocking while positive is usually more associated with less blocking. The number is strongly positive currently. On the flip side, certain snap shots of the AO from the summer reflect a likely hood of a negative AO in the winter.

I've mentioned the topic before of Snow cover in Eurasia and it grew quickly in October-- the second best advance on record. This DOES support high latitude blocking. High latitude blocking is associated with longer lasting cold snaps AKA, ways to get cold and keep it cold so we can snow. (-EPO, -AO and or -WPO)

The General feel for winter :
December starts off warm but trends colder later in the month. A week either side of Christmas has a shot at a snow/ice event. The El Nino of 09-10 had a big event December 18th. 02-03 had a Dec 5th event PLUS a big Nor Easter on Christmas Eve/Day (That was north of here, but close enough to consider) 97-98 had a small event on Dec 27 and then 4-8 incher on December 30. 86-87 had a 4-8 inch snow ending as rain in early January.

Early January trends warmer and this will last most of the month. By mid to late month we see the pattern change clearly and we know it's on the way. By late month, we are back in a colder regime and should get 1-2 small to moderate events and ONE big event that helps us reach above normal snow during February.

March - some Data supports some risks for additional snow/cold but I'm going to punt that off and avoid it as of now predicting a benign weather month.

I'm not to jazzed about basing my forecast on the hopes that we get ONE big snowfall to push us above normal. Talking with Kevin Myatt from the Roanoke Times, he cited that El Nino's winters push our likely hood for a 12 + event snowfall from 20% to 40% . I'd like to add that we could end in a near perfect pattern, storm track is a little off or cold air isn't deep enough and we end up with ice rather than snow.

Another factor is that often if we get ONE 10+ event, we see another. 09-10, 86-87 and 65-66 are prime examples of this. So, I could be too low too..

Some clunker winters with El Nino's are : 06-07 but it was east based little snow, one ice event. 91-92, least snowiest winter on record, the Eruption of Mt Pinatubo has been offered as a reason why. 72-73 in many areas to our north had NO snow, but we managed 10 inches down here so not horrible winter here. 41-42 winter had only 5 inches, but if you look at the bigger pattern you'd think we had a snowy winter. 97-98 wasn't horrible here with a few snows east of the appalachians and 2 near misses, one that crushed those west of the Blue Ridge.

Some snow el nino winters: 09-10, big snow in December then a pretty brutal stretch from late January till Mid February. We missed the worst with 20-30 inches in a 10 day stretch but places up from DC to Philly had 40-60 inches in 10 days. 02-03 Pretty cold and snowy all winter, with the BIG event being a sleet storm. 86-87- One snow to rain just after new years then back to back events Late January, a few more events in February. 65-66- one of my favorite winters where from Mid January till early Febryary 40-60 inches fell in a 3 week period.

So, outside of a cold snap and possible snow/ice near Christmas- We wait for the pattern to develop in the second half of winter and should have some decent snow to enjoy. If you recall last winter, we had literally nothing then for 2 weeks it snowed 3 times, including a 6-10 inch snowfall and schools were out the most past of 2 weeks. This winter may reflect that in our "sensible" weather.

If you want my confidence level:
50% we end up within a reasonable range of this forecast.
30% we end up warmer/less snow
20% we wend up colder/ more snow and ice.

I'm using 82-83 as my top analog. We had a December snow, but a warmer month. January was warm and basically snowless, February flipped colder and had a decent event on 6 of 3-6 inches then a NICE storm of 15-20 inches region wide on February 10-11.

Rain, Rainier and Rainiest..

2015-09-30T08:03:00.005-04:00

Sure has been dry?

Rainfall this month..

Blacksburg 8.61 inches
Roanoke 8.48 inches
Lynchburg 7.13 inches
Danville 7.7 inches

Some higher elevations have in excess of 10 inches. All these places run into the James and or Roanoke River.

90% of more has fallen since Monday 9/21

Time crunched and sparring you the synoptic details...
2 options from here.

Either way, I believe we get 2 more "waves" of rain between now and Sunday.

Option 1.. Wave one is dominant, The Hurricane stays far east and we still end up with an additional 2-7 inches of rain. Will have wide spread flooding. Some trees fall as well due to weakened soil.

Option 2- Hurricane gets captured by upper air low and ends up over NC/VA as landfall. Rainfall is still 2 waves, additional rainfall is more in line of 6-15 inches region wide, flooding goes from really bad to about historic. Winds are much stronger. Trees will fall with option one simply because the ground is so wet, with option 2 the winds are much stronger maybe 20-30 sustained with gusts to 50 and trees and power outages will be much more wide spread.

I'm leaning option one as of now with a 70/30 probability.