m3 financial analysis

Symmetry Converging…with nothing but bull at the highs…connecting three FED created bubbles...

2013-09-21T20:04:00.002-04:00

Bulls got everything they could have wanted, no Syria, no Taper, no Summers and a downrade of the economy (apparently that is bullish)…and look where we are - connecting the three bubbles: Dotcom, Housing and FED…the harmonics are kind of amazing...

The Nasdaq 100 pattern…from one bubble to another bubble...

2013-08-20T19:27:00.001-04:00

Previously, I posted the pattern on the NQ below…the wedge overthrew which should not be a surprise for a BURNanke bubble blow…but it has since failed at the breakout and fallen to below previous cycle resistance which should have been support. It now can not seem to get out of its way to get over those levels…NQ has not yet made a lower low so, technically, its possible that the rebound is in progress…however, looking at the candles does not inspire confidence for me in that view…then there is AAPL which did not make a pretty reversal today…I posted a lot of details which may be of consequence to AAPL’s next move.

Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a huge, gigantic, irrational bubble...

2013-07-18T20:45:00.001-04:00

I will be posting some charts to go with this…but I wanted to reiterate the contractions of the era. We have an insane criminal, Ben "Pinnochio” BURNanke, running the largest hedge fund in the world out of FED headquarters in Washington DC and trying to coverup the biggest banking crisis in world history, we have stock valuations through the stratosphere, we have gigantic parabola with ever contracting volatility in US equity markets, we have revenues declining consistently for companies for whom earnings have been rising because we have borrowing for share buybacks and dividend payments at disastrous levels, we have every person on the face of the earth knowing that the US stock markets can never fall, we have every retail investor aware of the ridiculous returns occurring with stocks, we have the most ardent bears and bear technical analysts all sure the market will make new highs to 1,800, 1,900 and even 2,200, we have the same insolvent financial system, GDP is being revised lower, unemployment is horrible and while Oil is ramping gas at the pump has barely budged…Detroit actually files bankruptcy as US get upgraded by Warren and friends but while many other cities teeter...we still have the same problems in China, Europe and South America that have all gotten worse…much worse, we have bubbles everywhere for irrational reasons in any asset that has even a whiff of capability to sustaining one…we have incredible shrinking amounts of tradable and collaterizable securities thanks to global central bank manipulation of open market assets…and the market can NEVER crash because BURNanke is god…

Technical analyst blogs and especially Elliot wave blogs that have been bears are now “terrified" by 10 point drops in the S&P500 and pointing to ever higher levels in the 4 − 5 to infinity count…We have NASDAQ 100 at HUGE resistance and failing and many other markets in similar shape…I think when a post mortem is done, these timea will look very different in the mirror...

Hark Hark…the heralded Central Banking angels sing...

2013-07-15T10:10:00.000-04:00

The seven-day repo rate in China surged to 12.33% from the 8.26% rate two days ago. It has recently traded around 3.30% this year. If this reminds anyone of 2008 it should.

The benchmark rate for funding costs between banks can not sustain these levels…I am quite sure BURNanke is on the job…hoarding more assets, shrinking more floats and creating more collateral shortages to pump assets before the dump...

4 − 5, 4 − 5…wave 3 to infinty and beyond...

2013-07-10T11:18:00.002-04:00

Dragon’s, QE and our unsustainable bubble...

2013-07-05T23:40:00.002-04:00

With all the infinte elliottwave blogs predicitng wave 4’s and 5’s into perpetuity - it probably time to better understand this irrational behaviour...

Centrally planned chaos...

2013-06-02T15:20:00.000-04:00

Japan “Abenomics” is beginning to result in captial destruction...

2013-05-27T18:09:00.000-04:00

Meanwhile, as JGB yields have nearly tripled Tepco (of Fukushima notoriety) was and still is essentially bankrupt but its stock has rallied over 500%. This is the quality of the capital deployment going on in Japan…rallying lots of less than desirables by over 500%. Perhaps this is one of the reasons that this drop on the Nikkei projects 11,500 and 11,000 in short order.

Last but not least, Japan must roll over hundreds of trillions in maturing JGB’s…this will be no small feat and will likely further drive up yields, especially if the distrust of BOJ policies continues to create unstable and higher yields.

High Yield Breaks support…as equity risk lives in twilightzone...

2013-05-26T17:42:00.001-04:00

A poet-abolic refrain sponsored by confidence in central banking followed by total distrust of central banking

2013-05-26T12:28:00.002-04:00

The only thing that has happened that the Central Bank establishment has eluded to and that has been fairly according to stated objectives is that risk assets have seen a steady rise in value. Everything else has pretty much been a bust. Commodities are down, earnings are only up due to cheap borrowing ability for corporations to use for buybacks which are promptly being sold into by insiders, and despite record buying of government bonds by central banks rates are not rising specifically where they were promised to be falling or stable. Price stability, full employment and a real economic recovery and house cleaning have not taken place. COMMODE-ahh has promised that JGB rates would be lowered by his buying program and now is rewriting his thesis on the fly. Perhaps he will have to forsake the stock market in order to encourage people to try to remain interested in JGB’s, however,, I think we are fast approaching the time where Commodities, Bonds and Equities all sell off together as capital destruction takes hold and central bankers find out that QE is actually deflationary in the end.

"This week’s double talk makes us feel that Mr. Kuroda does not really understand what he is doing. If he thought that interest rates would rise if his policy succeeds, why did he say his policy would lower interest rates?” Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, formerly of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Why should Nikkei bounce on Kuroda’s attempt at double talking of the market again…I fully expect that we may begin to see a Nikkei breakdown in which case we may also see some strange JGB action too.

In a reprise to previous central bank bubble era sentiment:

Editorial Observer; At Last, It's Time to Bet on Japan's Recovery

By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: March 08, 1999
The long national economic nightmare is finally ending in Japan. After a decade of denying reality, of bad policies being followed by worse changes, the Japanese economic pulse is starting to be heard.

That is not, to be sure, the opinion of most Japan-watchers, in or out of a country where every sign of an economic spring has proved false. Over the past seven years, Japan's economy has grown just 5.5 percent, an average of less than 1 percent a year. It has been almost impossible for a seer to be too pessimistic.

''No one wants to stick their neck out and call the bottom,'' says Ron Bevaqua, a senior economist with Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, who can list the positive things going on but nonetheless forecasts that this revival, like others before it, will sputter. He fears consumers will stop spending.

That pervasive pessimism has obscured positive developments that would provide encouragement anywhere else. At long last, the Government is doing everything it can to stimulate the economy with fiscal and monetary policy. Steps are being taken to recapitalize banks and alleviate the credit crunch. Japanese corporations are restructuring in ways that will make them more efficient. The number of new corporate bankruptcies has fallen sharply.

But because Japan has been down for so long, many doubt that announced reforms will be implemented and almost everyone is cautious. As retail sales rose in recent months, manufacturers hesitated to step up production. Now inventories are at a four-year low and production is starting to rise.

The most obvious clue that change is at hand can be seen in the performance of small Japanese stocks. Most of them depend on the local economy and are of little interest to foreign investors. So in the years since the bubble burst, they have had almost nothing going for them. The Japanese index of over-the-counter stocks fell 85 percent from its 1990 peak to last October's low. Now, however, it is up 50 percent from the low.
Big Japanese companies, more dependent on exports, have not done as well. Even with Friday's 5 percent leap, the Nikkei 225 ended the week just 16 percent above its October low. It fell 67 percent from top to bottom.

It is still possible that consumers will be reluctant to continue spending, or that those in the Government who are appalled by the big budget deficits being posted will try to raise taxes, making the same error that so hurt the economy last year. It is not certain that Japan's banks will succeed in putting their bad loans behind them, or that they will be willing to lend to businesses without the government guarantees now being used to stimulate lending.
In addition, notes Robert Barbera of Hoenig & Company, one of the few economists who expects Japan to grow this year, ''they have to prevent easy money at home from deteriorating into a collapsing yen, because the world needs them to generate a home-grown recovery, not an export-led expansion.’"

But consider what will happen if the pessimists are wrong. Just as Japan's falling yen and the retreat of Japanese banks helped cause the Asian collapse, the reversal of those trends could assure that tentative recoveries in South Korea and Thailand continue. A growing Japan would help to stem deflationary forces in the world, helping manufacturers and commodity producers.

Not everything will be better with a healthy Japan. Already, Japan's big deficit financing is boosting long-term interest rates there and is one reason that long-term rates are rising in this country. The environment will not be quite as nice for consumers, who will see more inflation and higher mortgage costs. Japan will seem like a better place to invest money, making the United States seem less attractive and perhaps putting pressure on the dollar.

But, to say the least, all that would be worth it. Only months after many were worrying that a global recession, or worse, was at hand, there are signs that the sickest of the big economies is off the critical list and on the way to recovery.

Is a CRASH imminent? central bankers in CHAOS - now peddling their most desperate marketing efforts for their ponzi schemes overtly via the media

2013-05-24T00:36:00.004-04:00

BOJ was out tonight begging people not to sell anything, not to worry and above all that things are just peachy…what we are witnessing is price stability and full employment…and yes its totally normal price stability for stock markets markets to swing 5 to 6% in a day and bond markets 1 and 2% not to mention risk being up 17 out of 19 days…and indexes up double digit percents in a matter of months on declining revenues and fundementals.

I did some screen grabs of the Nikkei the other day, and I have to tell you, I can not understand any fundamental excuse for the insanity behind the concept of changing nothing more than a divisor could merit such a tremendous outlay of resources. It is apparently something that only a central banker such as Ben BURNanke, DRUGhi or CORRODEah may be able to understand. It appears one way or the other BOJ will have to choose which is the more important market and then attempt to save that one for just a few more days. What these idiot have done is make a mockery of the markets, financial system and stolen from their countries at such a rate as has never been seen in previous history. They should be in JAIL and have now provided dynamite, kindling, wood, gasoline and the fumes for what should have only been a barbeque…

Goodnight Mr. Central Bankers…sleep well.

Harmonics suggest inflection point of parabola is close at hand...

2013-05-21T18:21:00.002-04:00

One Depression, Two Depressions…Three…

2013-05-18T15:39:00.000-04:00

JGB Blow up…Forced unwinds…Tepper “Greatness” - thousands of points down coming on DOW when JGB's hit critical mass for

2013-05-14T20:05:00.001-04:00

Isn’t it obvious why Tepper is so bullish real estate…he’s totally confused…you can not make new homes with old JGB hedges and unwinds…

What we have going on is a dis orderly unwind…when large funds are long bonds they hedge short assets against them…when those funds are long JGB’s and they are getting crushed and forced sales they must also unwind positions that clearlyget Tepper all gushy and confused…the fundementals he’s referring to only exist in his imagination.

Borrow Money from FED, Reduce float, Increase Earnings per share = get huge bonus and sell shares…hmmm

2013-05-13T23:53:00.000-04:00

But what will they do with all those pesky loans?

ohhh…and JGB’s too…apparnetly, though equities don’t think that QE tapering is important anymore, HYG and JGB’s really really do...

Some charts and some comments...

2013-05-12T11:55:00.001-04:00

Japanese Government Bonds take out abenomics confidence shock lows...

Close up of NDX…seeds of doubt…How high is the P/E again?

2013-05-10T20:15:00.000-04:00

JGB’s - Headless, Brainless, Spineless and Intergrity-less Central Planning…in action

2013-05-10T01:31:00.000-04:00

As opposed to the below headline and article:

The loss of confidence in the second largest government bond market in the world, in Central Bank policy/QE and BOJ/FED have set up the markets for a disconnection

Nasdaq/NDX Distribution DOJI...

2013-05-09T20:47:00.001-04:00

Below is an algorithmic analysis of the NDX doji pattern that we got today and how it looks historically…indicated with red dots where they occur

JGB’s are back and way down…kamikaze retard headless suicide mission right on plan...

2013-05-09T19:56:00.003-04:00

Today’s drop could have had NOTHING to do with rumors regarding the FED’s QE and everything to do with loss of confidence in Japan/BOJ and most likely general central bank policy:

Looks like interest rates are going up for Japan Government Bonds…a previous post about the potential loss of confidence in central bank policy is here: Insanity…

10:00 pm: Yen is collapsing and JGB are too…as Japan rates go up…destabilizing to say the least.

1:00 am: JGB Free fall as Japan breaks its own bank…but no different from the FED, ECB or most any other central bank and thei suicide mission so far this year.

DOW - no comment required...

2013-05-09T15:47:00.000-04:00

Insanity...

2013-05-08T13:37:00.002-04:00

My expectations were for a broad based pullback before hitting the upper target on this broadening pattern. Obviously, for all intents and purposes, the target has already been hit - without any pullback. With the DOW lower, I expected a pullback first and possibly a end of the year pump to test. However, that would require central banks not be trapped, as they have been with gold and silver. Bonds are starting to tell a worrying story and may indicate that confidence in central bank financial stabilization programs has been breached. If that is the case, the central banks will not only be fighting tons of risk assets on their books, but also devaluing bonds. If bonds sell off and risk sells off, central banks are trapped - which is why I believe they have been talking their book recently. If central banks become trapped and this pattern can be marked as fulfilled then it will be very difficult for them to muster the strength to attempt to hit the upper trend line of the broadening wedge again...

below is a version using OHLC bars rather than line prices:

Greek Islands and itiotic central banks...

2013-05-04T15:17:00.002-04:00

Never thought we would see these guys on one stage: Rogers, Ferrage, Paul...

2013-05-02T18:06:00.001-04:00

FED has NO credibilty, no SENSE and no Plan…untested medicine and unintended consquences

2013-05-01T13:25:00.001-04:00

The speakers make some excellent points about the FED’s QE being a liability for the economy.

I have pointed out many many times that the FED has directly been blowing bubbles in leveraged markets and actually hampering any real economic recovery for real people. Apparently, the FED did not see a 80% drop in oil after a 100+% risk in only a short time as an issue that it could have contributed to. Nor does the FED see the blood that it has on its hands in triggering the Arab spring which has been anything but. In fact, I wrote post called “BURNanke has blood on his hands”. Since the FED and adjust the CPI and it can be remodelled by them at any time, they can eliminate any unfavorable data points at their whim…they are doing this in nearly every case in the last 30 years…thay are not understanding any of their manipulations and interventions.

The FED has "Over promised and Under delivered…” and it has been the chief lemming leading all the other lemmings right to the edge of the same cliff.
Below is key commentary excerpted from Kevin Walsh’s interview.