MacroBusiness

Aussie consumer sentiment collapses following RBA rate hike

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:58:58 +0000

Last week’s 25 bp interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank has dealt a hammer blow to consumer sentiment. Westpac’s monthly consumer sentiment survey fell 4.7% to 80.4, with responses during the survey week showing a “very sharp pull-back after the RBA rate hike”. “The sentiment read across the 40% surveyed after the RBA decision

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Australia’s debt bill is about to fall due

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:36 +0000

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has dashed hopes of any new cost-of-living relief, warning that his Government is about to be hit with billions of dollars in extra costs to service its debt. “You will see in the mid-year budget update a magnitude of some billions of dollars, unfortunately”, Chalmers told the media on Sunday. “There

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AI eats the children

Houses and Holes — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 23:30:44 +0000

Anthropic is concerned. Frontier AI giant Anthropic has declared that artificial intelligence poses an “industrial-scale threat’’ to Australia and could reduce “demand for human work’’. As a parliamentary inquiry probes OpenAI’s government data hacks and the AI industry’s creative “cannibalisation”, Anthropic has called for taxpayer support to retain, retain or redeploy workers whose jobs are

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Finally, a Greens leader with common sense?

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 23:00:23 +0000

The Australian Greens elected a new leader, Senator David Shoebridge, last week after former leader Larissa Waters announced she was stepping away from the role because of chronic kidney disease. Shoebridge defeated former deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi — who quit her role to run for top spot — and the party’s Senate business manager Sarah

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AI chokes out Australian dollar resistence

Houses and Holes — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 22:30:42 +0000

DXY is refusing to push higer on the tumbling EUR. AUD has found a bottom for now. Gold is irked by yields. Given Yanbu shut today, oil is notably weak. Metals bounced. Miners too. EM stocks suddenly look OK. Junk is horrible, but it’s trying. The long-end pushed higher despite lower energy. It’s still not

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Yanbu bombed again

Houses and Holes — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 22:00:23 +0000

War headlines today. Houthis close Taiz bulge, lose Mocha. Houthis bomb Yanbu pipeline again and another refinery. Houthis bomb tanker in Bab al-Mandeb. Iran/US talks continue. Brent dropped 2% anyway to around $100. This is a good sign that enough oil is flowing through Hormuz, even if the rumour is that it has slowed over

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The future belongs to energy security

Tarric Brooker — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 21:00:49 +0000

When the United States and Israel kicked off the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf back in February, it set off a chain of events that will continue to echo around the world long after the conflict has been consigned to the history books. For over eight decades since the Second World War, nations around

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Thousands of first home buyers caught in negative equity trap

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 13:01:16 +0000

According to The Australian’s Mackenzie Scott, more than 102,000 Australians have used the federal government’s 5% first-home buyer (FHB) deposit scheme since it was expanded on 1 October 2025. Analysis by realestate.com.au suggests about 1,143 households that took the offer of buying a home with a deposit of just 5% were likely in negative equity

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A commodity hit for the federal budget

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 01:00:49 +0000

The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released last month, forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years, with tax receipts falling short of expenditure. A major headwind for the federal budget is the expected decline in corporate tax receipts from the mining sector amid lower commodity prices. The Australian Taxation Office’s

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Australia is a carbon pig

Houses and Holes — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:30:16 +0000

If you are sceptical about Australia’s energy transition, which I am less so than LVO, these charts will really piss you off. The following data uses EDGAR, the EU carbon tracker, World Bank and Climate Change Authority data. How is Australia’s gross carbon emissions abatement going? We are an absolute bludger. How is it that

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Will Australian housing turn Kiwi?

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:39 +0000

According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to late 2017 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following

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Chinese Golden Week slides into the brown

Houses and Holes — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 23:30:08 +0000

Iron ore is crashing. Except it isn’t. The freight premium is coming out. C5 has dropped $6 from the peak in the last few weeks. Adjusted for normal freight costs, CFR is roughly stable around $87. Forward indicators remain poor. Steel demand is pancaked. Steel production improved to catastrophic. Iron ore is growing at ports

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Why Australia’s inflation is domestically driven

Unconventional Economist — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 23:00:29 +0000

Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Chalmers insisted at a press conference with Finance Minister Katy Gallagher on Monday that the war in the Middle East, not government spending, was driving inflation. Spin Jim also insisted that other

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AI versus the railway bubbles

Houses and Holes — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 22:30:16 +0000

TME with the update on market positioning. The upside pain trade Markets have spent weeks preparing for more pain. Positioning has been slashed, policy pessimism is near a 30-year extreme, tech is being sold and Russell exposure is washed out. Yet equities have refused to properly crack. Now rates may be starting to offer the

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Burn it, baby, burn it!

Houses and Holes — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 22:00:02 +0000

War headlines today. Houthis bomb Riyadh refinery. Iran bombs three tankers over weekend. US bullies Europe into release of 100mb of inventory. China stops product exports. Windward total oil transits last week were at about 80mb. If we add Fujairah, Yanbu and North American export offsets, we are down about 2mb/d. It has clearly improved

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Jim Chalmers proven wrong on inflation again

Tarric Brooker — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 21:00:32 +0000

Like clockwork with the release of each of month’s inflation data from the ABS, there is a social media post from Treasurer Jim Chalmers talking up how either the success in fighting inflation is down to Labor or how the lack of effective inflation fighting is down to external forces or other elements beyond their

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Mid-sized capitals to lead house price falls

Unconventional Economist — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 13:01:01 +0000

To date, Australia’s housing correction has been driven by the two largest capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne. As illustrated below, Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has recorded a 6.6% decline from its peak across the five major capital city markets, led by declines of 8.8% recorded in Sydney and 7.4% in Melbourne: However, Cotality’s daily

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RBA rate hike smashes auction market

Unconventional Economist — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:46:34 +0000

Auction clearance rates have historically been a strong leading indicator of dwelling value growth, especially in major capital city markets. As CBA shows below, this year’s auction clearance rates have tracked well below those of 2025 and 2024, reflecting the sharp decline in the nation’s dwelling values. Dwelling values across the five major capital cities

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The economic week in review

Unconventional Economist — Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:39:10 +0000

Below is CBA economist Lucinda Jerogin’s round-up of this week’s economic and housing data: Key points: The RBA hiked the cash rate 25bps on Tuesday to 4.60%, its highest level in 15 years. The decision was unanimous. We expect for the RBA to be on hold from here, but risks are heavily skewed to another

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Weekend reading & MB media appearances

Unconventional Economist — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:01:41 +0000

International Reading: Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows – AP News RFK Jr Announcing That AI Is Now Better Than Human Doctors – Futurism The Fed Is Caught Between Inflation, $40 Trillion in Debt and Global Risk – Real Narratives Credit card delinquency in

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How is Australia’s energy transition really going?

Unconventional Economist — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 02:00:34 +0000

The 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, released in July, revealed that: Oil consumption hit a record high. Natural gas consumption hit a record high. Coal consumption hit a record high. Fossil fuels accounted for 86% of total energy supplied. Carbon emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels hit a record high. Last week, the

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Bonds, Aussie bonds

Houses and Holes — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 01:30:00 +0000

Aussie bonds are attracting wider interest. Australia’s benchmark bond yield looks poised to fall below its US counterpart for the first time in over a year, as expectations for monetary policy in the two economies diverge. With bets growing that the Reserve Bank of Australia is nearing the end of its tightening cycle while the

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Mortgage stress surges with worse to come

Unconventional Economist — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 01:00:01 +0000

Roy Morgan’s latest mortgage stress survey shows that 32.3% of mortgage households were at risk of mortgage stress in August, with 22.7% extremely at risk: Mortgage stress was tracking at its highest levels since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in mid-2008, when the official cash rate hit 7%. The Reserve Bank of

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PIIGS turn FIIGS

Houses and Holes — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:30:31 +0000

Something is starting to break. And it is Europe. TME has more. The puke SX5E has printed two aggressive bearish candles in a row and is now testing the make-or-break 6200 area in futures. The long-term trend line comes in around here as well, while the index is breaking below the 100-day moving average today.

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Aussie unemployment is set to jump

Unconventional Economist — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:55 +0000

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock recently suggested that the unemployment rate may need to rise to 5%, up from 4.6% currently, to ease inflation pressures in Australia. Bullock said that a higher unemployment rate could ease the strain on the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services, which is currently tight because of high demand

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Australian dollar hammer of doom

Houses and Holes — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 23:30:23 +0000

DXY gapped into the stratosphere overnight. It is goodbye, EUR. AUD kept falling and is approaching critical .69 cents support. Brent roared. Gold held on. Metals are letting go. Another major growth warning. Big miners are in trouble. EM stocks even more so. As junk gapped into madness. The long-end yield backup has slowed for

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War escalation at home and abroad

Houses and Holes — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 23:00:46 +0000

War headlines today. Iran bombs VLCC in Hormuz. On fire. Houthis rain hell on Saudi Arabia. Third US carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, headed for Iran. Netanyahu/Trump blame Iran for hijack. There has been a slight easing in US fuel prices but we are still at noeblees levels with crazy cracks. Australia is about to enjoy

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House prices on track for largest fall in 40 years by Christmas

Tarric Brooker — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 22:00:58 +0000

As commentators and banks alike continue to revise housing price forecasts down, Australians are increasingly wondering how much further prices could fall. With the release of the latest revised housing price data from Cotality, it can now be confirmed that housing prices are falling significantly faster than initially believed, particularly in the locales worst impacted

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Australia has a housing conversion problem

Unconventional Economist — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:01:46 +0000

The latest dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that only 173,400 homes were built in the year to March 2026, 66,600 (28%) fewer than the 240,000 annual run rate required to meet the National Housing Accord’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Over the first 21 months

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Bathla’s collapse an iceberg for private credit market

Unconventional Economist — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 02:00:46 +0000

The private credit market, which has grown to around $200 billion in assets, has become a key lender to developers as traditional banks pull back from construction lending due to tightening risk appetites. However, the recent collapse of property developer Bathla Group has thrown the sector into disarray. Bathla Group entered voluntary administration in late

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