MacroBusiness

Wind projects drought threatens energy transition

Unconventional Economist — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 01:00:58 +0000

Over the past decade, taxpayers have heavily subsidised virtually every large-scale renewable project undertaken in Australia. To meet the federal government’s 82% renewable energy target (RET), Australia must retire most of its current coal fleet and replace it with about 6–7 GW of new large-scale renewable generation annually, along with several gigawatts of storage. However,

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Podcast: The Financial Mess Behind AI Boom’s Problem Children

Damien Klassen — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:45:06 +0000

In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, digs into the financial mess behind AI’s problem children — from mounting debt and soaring infrastructure costs to delayed data centres and projects being put on hold. We examine what the troubles at companies like CoreWeave and NEXTDC reveal about the risks beneath the

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Iron ore fruitcakes unite!

Houses and Holes — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:30:17 +0000

I almost admire Andrew Forrest today. Andrew Forrest wants diesel gone from Fortescue’s Pilbara mines by 2028, as the mining magnate lashed US President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for pushing up the cost of living for Australians. Speaking at Fortescue’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, Dr Forrest said both Australia’s mining industry and

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The simple solution to Australia’s rental crisis

Unconventional Economist — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:28 +0000

ABC 7.30 Report ran a segment on how Australia’s rental crisis is forcing tenants into group accommodation and other sub-optimal living arrangements to save on costs. “Real estate agents say these tight markets are pushing some renters beyond the city limits or into new living arrangements”, reporters Nicole Hegarty and Courtney Bembridge said. “The suburbs

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Consumers shrug off RBA

Houses and Holes — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 23:30:21 +0000

Westpac’s credit card tracker is powering. The Westpac–DataX Card Tracker Index* has edged down slightly since late September, slipping 0.9pts to 160.6 in the week ended October 17. Despite this, growth in activity continues to track a robust pace with quarterly momentum running at close to 2%qtr and annual growth at 6%yr. Some of this

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Albo targets the wrong immigration trade deal

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 23:00:47 +0000

In May 2023, the Albanese government announced changes to Australia’s Working Holiday Maker (WHM) Program and the UK’s Youth Mobility Scheme as part of the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (AUKFTA). Below are the specific changes: From 1 July 2023, UK passport holders will be able to apply for a Working Holiday visa between the ages

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Kevin passes the Warshach test

Houses and Holes — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:30:46 +0000

But not the central banker’s test. DXY is down as the FOMC refused to hike into face-ripping inflation. AUD popped. There’s a short squeeze risk here for all those nervous fundies. The twins remain in doom mode. Growth is back. EM is stepping back from the brink. Junk toys with the end of the war.

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War delivers coal boom

Houses and Holes — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:00:27 +0000

Latest war headlines. Netanyahu 58 seats. Eisenkot 48 seats. Arab parties 19 seats. First to 61 wins. Eisenkot stii favourite. Iran tells Mecca, US attack will destroy them. Trump says US attack post-midterms is on the table. Brent and cracks bounced. Physical markets are still tight. LNG to the moon. It would make sense for

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One Nation’s rise is a symptom of a broken system

Tarric Brooker — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:00:43 +0000

Through academia, the halls of power and elements of social media there is a often a common narrative thread, the idea that everything is okay enough and that whatever criticism may actually be valid is largely derived from the mistakes and policy choices from those on the other side of the political and ideological divide.

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Australia’s inflation is getting worse, despite rate hikes

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 13:01:07 +0000

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has hiked the official cash rate four times this year to a 15-year high of 4.60%. As a result, Australia now has the second-highest official policy rate in the advanced world, behind Iceland. Despite the RBA’s aggressive rate hikes, Australia’s inflation problem continues to worsen. On Wednesday, the Australian

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Strong inflation sets course for RBA to hike next week

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:00:34 +0000

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2026. The key movements are illustrated below: Headline CPI rose by 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0% in the 12 months to August. Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation in September, rising by

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Buying the Madman

Houses and Holes — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:30:21 +0000

TME on the crash under the boom. The great volatility disconnect Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of equities. Defensive sectors are showing bubble-like behavior, US earnings moves keep exceeding what options price in, and Europe is paying up for volatility that rarely materializes. Meanwhile, the semiconductor washout is creating interesting upside opportunities, while

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Perth’s housing market is in deep trouble

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:56 +0000

Six months ago, Perth’s housing market looked impervious to a house price correction, with values continuing to grow at a solid pace. The tables have well and truly turned, with Perth’s dwelling values now falling at the equal fastest pace among the major capital cities, down by 1.7% over the past month, according to Cotality.

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Iron ore “nasty”

Houses and Holes — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 23:30:18 +0000

Ferrous prices are in free fall, led by hot-rolled coil, a bad sign for hot metal output. Iron ore is at new two-year lows. But not quite if you normalise freight rates. Mid-October CISA data was soft again. Even so, inventories rose. Steel output is very shitty. Deteriorating profitability among Chinese steelmakers has further weighed

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The next Victorian government must downsize the bureaucracy

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 23:00:41 +0000

The Victorian budget is drowning in debt. Net debt is forecast to hit $200 billion by the end of the decade: Credit ratings agency Moody’s recently forecast that the state would spend $1 of every $10 of revenue earned on interest payments by the end of the decade: Wages are the Victorian budget’s largest expense.

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Shorts stampede Australian dollar

Houses and Holes — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 22:30:27 +0000

DXY looks ready for more bounce. That said, with France calming down, EUR could do it instead. The twins have death-crossed. As soon as oil eases, the growth party resumes. Not so obvious for EM. But screamingly so for junk. As duration rallies. Stocks to the moon! It’s not exactly complex. What is a little

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Israel votes on Iran’s future

Houses and Holes — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 22:00:05 +0000

War headlines today. Israel votes. More tankers on fire. It was a better day for Brent and cracks. LNG too. ANZ sees China wading back into oil. As Middle Eastern (ME) supply recovers, China’s refinery demand and inventory rebuild will again be key to absorbing additional barrels. Recent data suggest they are snapping up the

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AI’s hunger for power catches America unprepared

Tarric Brooker — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 21:00:10 +0000

As the realities of the new world unfolding before our eyes continue to become apparent, challenges thought largely solved have once again been brought back to the forefront. Between 2005 and 2020, total U.S. electricity consumption grew at an average annual rate of just 0.1%. This led some to conclude that the challenges presented by

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Australia closes door on non-genuine international students

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 13:01:47 +0000

Over the past two years, the Albanese government has increased the cost, evidentiary burden, and scrutiny of student visas to stem the flow of non-genuine students. Measures introduced include: Tougher English-language requirements: From March 2024, the minimum English proficiency standard for student visas increased from an IELTS equivalent 5.5 to 6.0. Major increase in student

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Join me tonight on DFA Live with Martin North

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 04:42:24 +0000

Tonight I’ll appear on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will dive into the dramatic falls in home prices and whether this signals a broader malaise in Australia’s economy. If so, what can be done about it, and how should households prepare for a potential recession? You can ask a question

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Is it time for a payroll tax on bank jobs outsourced overseas?

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 01:00:41 +0000

National Australia Bank (NAB) recently announced plans to cut 2,500 jobs by mid-2027, including 1,500 by the end of this year. However, NAB has now revealed it plans to abolish 3,200 jobs before Christmas, although it will invite some displaced staff to apply for new jobs through a process known as ‘spill-and-fill’. A senior NAB manager has likened

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AI jobs panic begins

Houses and Holes — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:30:42 +0000

News is leading the charge, oddly. Design graduate Harriet Lindsay has spent nearly a year emailing, calling and applying – but she still can’t land a job after spending $25,000 to obtain her UTS degree. After contacting about 200 design firms across Australia, the 23-year-old from Sydney’s Northern Beaches is starting to wonder whether she

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Victorian Labor faces electoral annihilation

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:08 +0000

If the latest opinion polls are accurate, the Victorian Labor government faces a crushing defeat at November’s state election. The latest Newspoll reported by The Australian suggests Victoria’s political landscape has shifted dramatically ahead of the 28 November election, with the Coalition holding a commanding lead over Labor. Labor’s primary vote has fallen 4 points

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Godzilla El Nino largest in a century

Houses and Holes — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 23:30:50 +0000

The Godzilla El Nino just keeps growing. BOM animation. There’s no stopping it. Here are the strongest El Niños on record compared to today. UBS pulls no punches. Strongest El Niño in more than 75 years According to the expert, the current El Niño is unequivocally the strongest observed since modern sea surface temperature monitoring

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Australia’s “worst ever” housing crash beckons

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 23:00:21 +0000

Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye has posted the following chart on X (Twitter) showing that the current “crash” in Australian dwelling values is “officially the worst ever”: “Current Aussie housing crash is the worst ever recorded since 1980 – national capital city prices are currently falling at a 16% annualised pace based on the last three

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Is the AI crash over?

Houses and Holes — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 22:30:32 +0000

TME asks the question. DB nailed the tech unwind. Now what? Credit where it’s due. On October 9, Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha and team tactically downgraded tech from overweight to neutral, warning of an unfavorable risk/reward setup and a potential sharp reversal. The timing was excellent. Mega-cap growth and tech have since fallen 7%, while

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Diesel shock forever now

Houses and Holes — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 22:00:19 +0000

War headlines today. Another ship on fire in Hormuz. Iran seeks peace with Mecca partners. IDF chief resists Netanyahu’s order to attack Iran. Dated Brent is still climbing. Both Brent futures and diesel eased, but this is now a weekly pattern of down on Monday and new highs by Friday. Oil flows out of the

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One Nation’s housing policy could be its undoing

Tarric Brooker — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 21:00:34 +0000

In recent times, One Nation and its leader Pauline Hanson have gained an incredible amount of ground in the polls, rising to often top the polls on primary vote. The genesis of the move from the relative backwater ground of a long time minor party to battling as an equal among the major’s has been

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“Embedded inflation” will force RBA to hike again

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 13:01:14 +0000

Last week’s ultra-hawkish commentary from RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser immediately sent expectations of interest rate hikes among economists and in financial markets skyward. Hauser’s central message was that inflation is proving more persistent and “materially worse” than expected, inflation expectations are beginning to drift higher, and the RBA remains prepared to tighten policy further.

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CoreWeave: a loose thread in the fabric of AI

Damien Klassen — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 03:01:56 +0000

CoreWeave’s debt problems raise a question that matters well beyond its shareholders: Is Coreweave a loose thread that can be snapped with little damage? Or will it be the thread that unravels the entire fabric of the AI trade? At the moment, I think it is more the former. And my expectation is that if

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