MacroBusiness

Will the budget’s tax changes help or hinder housing supply?

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:01:44 +0000

The federal budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) were designed to reduce investor demand for established housing, thereby lowering prices, without negatively impacting housing supply. From 1 July 2027, investors will only be permitted to fully negatively gear newly built dwellings. From 1 July 2027, the 50% CGT discount is abolished

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Victorians are finally ready to oust Labor

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 03:00:39 +0000

Victorians have experienced severe Stockholm Syndrome with respect to the state Labor government. Victoria’s nine-month lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic was among the longest and most severe in the world, driven in part by the state government’s incompetence in handling hotel quarantine. Victoria’s infrastructure projects have experienced massive cost overruns, and the government has swelled

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How has China survived the oil shock?

Houses and Holes — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 02:30:55 +0000

China is the largest importer of Middle East oil. Yet, some say it is so far, the least affected by the Iran War. Is this meme true, and how did it achieve this? It is certainly true that China absorbed the greatest oil shock on the planet. And China has encouraged the switch by allowing

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Is the RBA done with rate hikes?

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 02:00:36 +0000

The past week has seen two major banks pivot on interest rates. They now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the official cash rate on hold until mid-next year, before delivering cuts. CBA was the first to change its view, last week forecasting that the RBA will remain on hold at 3.35%

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Australia’s New CGT Rules: The Hidden Math

Damien Klassen — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:30:20 +0000

The Australian Federal Budget has ignited a fierce debate around tax reform, with the spotlight firmly fixed on changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax. For property, the changes are expected to put downward pressure on prices. But for broader investment portfolios, the proposed CGT changes are opening a complex can of worms.

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Canada’s “ugly” growth experience holds lessons for Australia

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:00:32 +0000

Canada’s newly declared recession has exposed how heavily the country’s headline GDP growth relied on record‑high immigration, with Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledging that reducing immigration contributed to the downturn, according to the National Post. Analysts argue this simply reveals what has been true for years: Canada’s economy has been expanding only because its population

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Australian dollar plunges towards 60s

Houses and Holes — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:30:41 +0000

DXY has firmed up but not much more than that. AUD is in trouble. JPY is a big problem. Gold is signalling something. Either real yields are about to take off or the DXY is, or both. Oil is Trump’s bitch. AI metals are sniffing a fouling wind. RIO’s double top from hell. EM still

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Melbourne is the real life GTA

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:16 +0000

Jacqui Felgate, Melbourne’s 3AW Radio host, often posts videos on Instagram of the latest armed robberies, home invasions, and crimes across Melbourne. The stories are as regular as they are disturbing. They often involve masked teenagers carrying out assaults, burglaries, or carjackings, only to receive a light punishment and return to the community to commit

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Yuge electricity deflation ahead

Houses and Holes — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 23:30:59 +0000

Gas prices remain one quarter of those in Asia. Some charts today from Ember-Energy show just how big the approaching global gas glut is going to be. As we know, supply is about to surge. What we don’t often look at is the demand side, where demand is stalling out. Globally, the gas share of

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War turns meaningless

Houses and Holes — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 23:00:25 +0000

The overnight headlines are of continued war. Israel pounds southern Lebanon and Gaza and said nothing will stop it Apache shut down over Hormuz. Iran denies it did it. Nobody cares. Iran declares Trump mad and has no respect with country in the region. Trump launches counter-strikes. Deal 9 imminent! Oil always believes Trump. I

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Australia’s population on course for 84 million by 2100?

Tarric Brooker — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 22:00:39 +0000

Recently, there has been a great deal of debate over the path of Australia’s population growth, most notably regarding what Australia’s population will look like in the year 2100. In a recent commentary to the Daily Telegraph, entrepreneur and former retail magnate Dick Smith warned that: “We’re going to get to (a population) 100 million

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Australia’s rental crisis continues to deepen

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:01:39 +0000

Australian tenants are facing deteriorating conditions, with Cotality’s results for May showing accelerated rental growth and vacancy rates returning to record lows. Annual advertised rental growth in Australia rose to 5.9% in May, the largest annual increase since September 2024. The increase in advertised rents comes as the national rental vacancy rate fell to a

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Will Australia’s house price correction broaden beyond Sydney and Melbourne?

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:00:39 +0000

According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide have so far avoided the house price corrections taking place in Sydney and Melbourne. PropTrack’s dwelling value results for May also show that these three cities have avoided falling, although growth has slowed significantly across each market. The question arises: can Perth, Brisbane and

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What can save us from PM Pauline!?!

Houses and Holes — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:30:41 +0000

LVO noted the latest Newspoll this morning, which, I note, still refuses to include a TPP of ALP vs ON. Some of the moronic responses from the major parties this morning show why and how PM Pauline is becoming a fait accompli. First, Albo the coward. “Some of the personal ways in which mainstream media,

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Australian consumer sentiment collapses

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:14:17 +0000

The Westpac consumer sentiment index collapsed by 2.9% to 80.6 in June, with Australians showing deep pessimism across finances, the economy, housing, and savings behaviour. The survey is back near the weakest levels in its 50-year history, with pessimists outnumbering optimists by nearly 20%. Household finances have deteriorated, with finances versus a year ago falling 7.5%

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The day I escaped a Victorian mental asylum

Houses and Holes — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 01:30:08 +0000

A year or so ago, I had an experience that many of you will struggle to comprehend. For a decade, a mental health nurse with a fixation on my wife had stalked my family. My wife is a senior forensic psychologist, so you can imagine the kind of jealousies involved. The obsession comprised the usual

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Australia’s sandwich generation pays the most tax

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 01:00:10 +0000

At 48, I am officially part of Australia’s “sandwich generation”, busy caring for both teenage children and elderly parents. While I am earning more than I did in my 30s, my family’s expenses have also never been higher, as has my tax bill. Analysis by Taylor Fry for the Actuaries Institute, presented in The Australian

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Bull trap

Houses and Holes — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:30:02 +0000

TME with the charts. The Bounce Trap Friday’s selloff exposed a market built on momentum, leverage, and a belief that the AI trade only goes one way. History suggests the bounce may not be as safe as it looks. Forced sellers According to Goldman, SOX entered Friday at its most extended level since the dot-com

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Albanese tempts political fate by pledging status quo on migration

Tarric Brooker — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:00:37 +0000

Amid the rise of One Nation to the top of the list for the primary vote, according to the most recent aggregate polling data, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to continue reducing migration over the years ahead. “We will reduce that overseas migration over next couple of years down to 225,000 and we think

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It’s a gas miracle!

Houses and Holes — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 23:30:06 +0000

Yes, the gas cartel has discovered extra volumes, but only through a miracle that coincidentally matched the timing of the gas reservation and the debate! The price has cratered locally. This has wiped out the usual winter demand shock for electricity. Even as Asian gas prices roar 400% higher due to the Iran War. Isn’t

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War returns

Houses and Holes — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 23:00:02 +0000

It’s been a night of war. Israel has rejected Iran’s warning not to attack Lebanon, though aerial operations appear paused. Israeli officials say strikes on Iran being halted at President Trump’s request to ‘stop shooting’. Netanyahu confirms attacks halted ‘for now’. Iran FM accuses US of cooperating with Washington: “No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry

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Australians are sick and tired of Anthony Albanese

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 22:00:20 +0000

A historic Newspoll shows One Nation surging to first place in primary vote support, overtaking Labor and the Coalition for the first time, amid collapsing approval for Anthony Albanese and overwhelming public demand for a major political shake‑up. One Nation’s primary support has jumped to 31%, ahead of Labor on 30% and the Coalition on 18% (matching

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More proof Australia’s immigration system is broken

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 14:01:11 +0000

Australia’s immigration system is broken. The fastest-growing category of temporary migrants has been bridging visas, which have been ruthlessly abused. There were 432,000 people in Australia on bridging visas in the March quarter of 2026, up from an average of only 96,000 between 2012 and 2016: The Department of Home Affairs generally issues bridging visas

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It’s been a miserable decade for Australian households

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 01:00:01 +0000

The past decade has been a basket case for Australian households According to the March quarter national accounts, released last week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), real per capita household disposable income—arguably the strongest indication of material living standards—declined by 0.6% over the quarter to be tracking 3.6% lower than the COVID-19 peak:

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How government spending powered post-pandemic growth

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:39 +0000

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released two sets of data illustrating the extent to which Australia’s economy and labour market have been driven by government spending since the pandemic. The March quarter national accounts, presented below by CBA, showed that government spending as a share of the economy was 28.8% in the

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The Pilbara killer is loosed

Houses and Holes — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 23:30:24 +0000

Iron ore has fallen 10% in recent weeks. CISA output is still -6% yoy. Inventory is up yoy. Port iron ore inventory is rising much earlier than usual this year. MySteel indexes are getting flushed. This market is only being held up by the war, and it is starting to crack anyway as the Pilbara

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Australian dollar faceplants

Houses and Holes — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 23:00:06 +0000

DXT is threatening to break out. AUD still has CNY support, but JPY is down the dunny. Gold is breaking. This may be a leading indicator that oil is going to take off. Or it’s the DXY. Actually, the entire Crap Complex is bracing for a strong DXY. Dirt: Fugly double tops on miners. EM

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Labor fails again on housing supply

Unconventional Economist — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 14:01:10 +0000

In October 2025, housing minister Clare O’Neil lied on Twitter (X) claiming that “for the first time in a decade, new homes are being built faster”, that “the only way to make homes more affordable is to build more of them”, and “we’re doing exactly that”: However, the latest dwelling completions data from the Australian

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Auction market plunges to new low

Unconventional Economist — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 00:30:48 +0000

Sydney and Melbourne are currently experiencing housing corrections, with both markets recording price falls of more than 2% over the past quarter. The price declines are reflected in both cities’ auction markets, where clearance rates have fallen to their lowest levels in years. Sydney’s final auction clearance rate in May fell to 49%, the lowest

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Singapore fuel stocks plummet, 20% of Aussie fuel imports

Tarric Brooker — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 21:29:25 +0000

Last week saw a truly historic drawdown in oil product inventories in Singapore, with total stocks dropping by over 6.1 million barrels, or 13%, in just one week. While there was a drop across the range of grades of oil products, the largest drops occurred in light distillates (gasoline, naphtha, LPG etc) and middle distillates

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