MacroBusiness

Have Victorians finally woken up?

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:01:28 +0000

For years, I watched in despair as my fellow Victorians displayed acute Stockholm Syndrome regarding the state Labor government. It seemed that no matter what the state Labor government did or how poorly it performed, Victorians would continue to vote them back into government. It appeared that we had become a one-party state. Victoria’s nine-month

The post Have Victorians finally woken up? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Debunking the “China Loves Coal” argument

Damien Klassen — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 03:45:47 +0000

The problem with the anti-renewable energy argument is that it is a weaving, bobbing, amorphous line of thinking that changes when you try to pin it down. I’ve tried to do all in one arguments, but I think that is playing into the problem. If there are 10 arguments that I need to debunk, it

The post Debunking the “China Loves Coal” argument appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Why New Zealand migration to Australia will fall

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 03:00:15 +0000

Over recent years, Australia has received large volumes of migrants from New Zealand, as illustrated by the following chart: In the 2025 calendar year, Australia received 28,500 net overseas migrants from New Zealand, down from the recent peak of 32,100 in mid-2024. Over the last 21 years, the net migration of New Zealanders to Australia

The post Why New Zealand migration to Australia will fall appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Inflation undershoot tempers RBA rate hike expectations

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 01:52:13 +0000

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month/quarter of June, which rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to June 2026, driven by housing, which rose by 6.8%: “Annual inflation for New dwellings has reached its highest level in almost three years, at 5.8%”, Rachael McCririck,

The post Inflation undershoot tempers RBA rate hike expectations appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Allen cops the Andrews puke

Houses and Holes — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 01:30:40 +0000

Why Victoria, virtually alone in the Western world, put a COVID government back into power is a mystery. The most locked-down and abused state globally appeared to have developed Stockholm syndrome, in which a captured person falls in love with his or her captor. This is a survival mechanism. If all hope is lost in

The post Allen cops the Andrews puke appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Australia-US FTA is completely worthless

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 01:00:14 +0000

Trade Minister Don Farrell says the US government’s decision to impose a new tariff on imports from Australia is “completely unjustified” and a breach of the free-trade agreement between the two nations. Australia is one of 60 nations that will incur a 12.5% tariff after the Trump administration accused them of failing to do enough

The post The Australia-US FTA is completely worthless appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Batteries rise to fight gas cartel

Houses and Holes — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:30:46 +0000

Bloomy. Wholesale spot prices in the National Electricity Market averaged A$74 ($51.71) a megawatt-hour in the three months through June, down 47% from a year earlier, the network operator said in its latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report. Gas-powered generation fell by a third to its lowest second-quarter average since 2003. Renewables generated a record 42% of power

The post Batteries rise to fight gas cartel appeared first on MacroBusiness.

PC housing reforms won’t solve the supply issue

Unconventional Economist — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:13 +0000

Australia’s Productivity Commission (PC) is calling for the most sweeping overhaul of housing rules in decades — pushing for three‑storey housing almost everywhere, major reductions in planning restrictions, and faster approvals — arguing that regulatory barriers are a core driver of the housing shortage and worsening affordability. The PC’s central argument is that Australia cannot meet

The post PC housing reforms won’t solve the supply issue appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Bursting bubble says no to TACO

Houses and Holes — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:30:53 +0000

It’s always the same. The core players are fine. But it’s the fringes that matter. And AI is full of weirdos playing with debt. TME with the charts. Moment of Truth Technology is approaching another important inflection point. Semiconductor technicals continue to deteriorate, credit markets remain under pressure and AI leadership is beginning to crack.

The post Bursting bubble says no to TACO appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Madman Trump resurrects MOU

Houses and Holes — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:00:11 +0000

Lol. How the world is supposed to run with this dill in charge is beyond imagining. Madman Trump is at it again. Ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, mediators believed they were close to a breakthrough that would revive the memorandum of understanding signed by the US

The post Madman Trump resurrects MOU appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Australia’s migration-driven budget windfall is built on fantasy

Tarric Brooker — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 22:00:19 +0000

In the debate over the appropriate size of the migration intake, proponents often reference estimates from the federal Treasury or the Parliamentary Budget Office to justify a larger intake. A recent article in the Nine Entertainment papers referenced findings from the Parliamentary Budget Office which held a similar thematic. “Any cuts to Australia’s overseas migration

The post Australia’s migration-driven budget windfall is built on fantasy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

What is cheaper than free!

Houses and Holes — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:12:17 +0000

Are wind and solar cheaper? Yes, because they are often free. In AEMO bid stack, which energy providers offer to cover at a price, wind and solar often bid zero. The question any energy sceptic needs to ask is which energy type sets the marginal price. That is, who makes the last and highest bid

The post What is cheaper than free! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Are wind and solar power really cheaper?

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:01:10 +0000

MB’s David Llewellyn-Smith (DLS) and Nucleus Wealth’s Damien Klassen disagree with me on energy policy. MB exists to debate such issues in good faith and allow readers to form their own views. We all agree that a domestic East Coast gas reservation policy and/or export levies are a no-brainer and would help to lower Australian

The post Are wind and solar power really cheaper? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Join me tonight on DFA Live with Martin North

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:09:09 +0000

Tonight I will be appearing on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will dive into the latest economic and political drivers of the housing market. How will this play out, and will government intervention change the story? Or are we set for a long drawn-out slide? You can ask a question

The post Join me tonight on DFA Live with Martin North appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Why aren’t pharmacies allowed in Australian supermarkets?

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:00:22 +0000

The Grattan Institute released a report arguing that the Pharmacy Guild of Australia has too much power over where pharmacies can be opened, how they run, the cost of medications and the services pharmacists can provide. As a result, Australians are paying more for medicines than they should. Grattan’s key recommendation is to “remove restrictions

The post Why aren’t pharmacies allowed in Australian supermarkets? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Albo bribed by gas cartel

Houses and Holes — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:30:53 +0000

Albo is busy collecting the cash from the gas cartel. Not for you. For Labor bribes. Just over half a dozen business figures paid about $10,000 a head — apparently the standard price for dinners of this size with Australia’s prime minister. Interestingly, among them were some of the PM’s sharpest critics: Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher and

The post Albo bribed by gas cartel appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Calls grow for national CFMEU inquiry

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:00:34 +0000

Across multiple inquiries, reports, and economic analyses, the CFMEU’s conduct on Victoria’s Big Build is consistently linked to higher construction costs, lower productivity, and systemic rorting that added billions to project budgets. The most authoritative estimate comes from the Watson Review, which found the CFMEU’s behaviour imposed at least $15 billion in excess costs on Victorian

The post Calls grow for national CFMEU inquiry appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Consumer smashed by burning houses

Houses and Holes — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 01:30:01 +0000

The Westpac credit card tracker for the past fortnight is showing a consumer battered by oil. The rolling four-week trend growth pulse is practically level at 155.8, which is a very little increase above the 155.6 reported during the final week of June. Momentum has stalled. Oil is making an absolute mess as it spikes

The post Consumer smashed by burning houses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Rotten TACO

Houses and Holes — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 01:00:36 +0000

DXY still looks bullish. AUD is stalled with CNY. JPY on the way to hell. Good and evil. AI metals are slowy shaking out. Big miners don’t look well to me. EM barge pole. US junk still pressured at the margin. As long-end yields get sticky and the market wonders about Wobbly Warsh. Rotten TACO.

The post Rotten TACO appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Jacinta Allan resigns as premier of broken state

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:17:24 +0000

Jacinta Allan has resigned as Victorian Premier, paving the way for Ben Carroll to take over as the state’s leader, in a move that should avoid a messy leadership contest months before the state election. “I am making this decision because it is the right thing for the Labor Party and the Victorian people”, she

The post Jacinta Allan resigns as premier of broken state appeared first on MacroBusiness.

QLD’s exalted housing construction boom is actually a bust

Unconventional Economist — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:40 +0000

QLD Premier David Crisafulli boasted on Twitter (X) that “for the first time in history, 50,000 homes are under construction across QLD”: Crisafulli then added that “Queensland is now building more homes than ever before” and that “after a decade of decline under Labor, we are unashamedly pulling every lever possible to boost housing supply

The post QLD’s exalted housing construction boom is actually a bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Houthis widen new front

Houses and Holes — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 23:00:42 +0000

After attacking Aramco’s refinery in Jizan, the Houthis appear to have bombed Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing plant, the world’s largest oil processing facility. There are reports it is on fire. It produces 7 mb/d of crude. Trump also suspended strikes against Iran: Trump stated that the US suspended strikes to allow for diplomatic efforts,

The post Houthis widen new front appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Super El Nino to shatter more than just temperatures

Houses and Holes — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 23:00:09 +0000

Climate change is about to become a major issue again. Public concern about climate change always rises and falls with El Niño, the weather phenomenon that interacts with global warming to produce extreme temperature spikes and drought in Australia. The Southern Oscillation Index is at its most extreme in twenty years. These cycles are also

The post Super El Nino to shatter more than just temperatures appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Data centre boom in the land of droughts and power shortages

Tarric Brooker — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 22:00:42 +0000

In a recent appearance on ABC’s ‘That’s Business’ podcast hosted by Alan Kohler, Treasurer Jim Chalmers attempted to make a case that Australia was an attractive place for data centre construction, far more so than the historic environment for car manufacturing. “I think our advantages here in 2026 are much more substantial than some of

The post Data centre boom in the land of droughts and power shortages appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Victorians brace for deep austerity

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 14:01:59 +0000

The massive rise in state debt has placed Victoria in a precarious financial position. When the state Labor government took office in 2014, Victoria had very low debt. Now it is the most indebted state government with the lowest credit rating. Victoria’s debt binge has been brought about by profligate spending on the public service,

The post Victorians brace for deep austerity appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Wednesday’s CPI do or die for RBA

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 03:30:46 +0000

Financial markets have recently lifted their expectations of another 25 bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). They now ascribe a near 100% probability of another rate hike by the end of the year, although they are not expecting the RBA to hike at next month’s meeting. The chances of another rate

The post Wednesday’s CPI do or die for RBA appeared first on MacroBusiness.

There ain’t a war Murdoch don’t love

Houses and Holes — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 02:30:57 +0000

Rupert Murdoch has always loved war. War makes his propaganda tools very valuable, which he can use in all sorts of ways to expand his empire. But his current support of the US/Israeli war on Iran is baffling. How does alienating the MAGA base he built for Trump serve his ends? How does destroying the

The post There ain’t a war Murdoch don’t love appeared first on MacroBusiness.

People are India’s main export

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 02:00:38 +0000

In March, India’s High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh K. Patnaik, declared that Canada needs 100 million people and argued that India is the only realistic source of immigrants on the scale required. “You have things which we need, we have things which you need”, Patnaik told CBC Live. “With a 40 million population, you need

The post People are India’s main export appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Iron ore stuck on the cliff’s edge

Houses and Holes — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 01:30:48 +0000

Iron ore continues to struggle despite the Brent tailwind. Mid-June steel output from CISA remains down 5-6%. MySteel indexes are catching down to CISA and NBS. Steel inventories are booming. Which is preventing iron ore port inventories from climbing for now. Anyone expecting a rebound in Chinese growth better check the oil chart. Stimmies are

The post Iron ore stuck on the cliff’s edge appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Victoria’s economic chickens come home to roost

Unconventional Economist — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 01:00:38 +0000

When the state Labor government took office in 2014, Victoria had very low debt. However, after more than a decade of poor financial management and waste, Victorians are now the highest-taxed people in the nation, and the state is the most indebted, with the poorest credit rating. Victoria’s debt binge has been brought about by

The post Victoria’s economic chickens come home to roost appeared first on MacroBusiness.