Macrotots

BMW 328i 20,000 Mile Report

2016-03-28T13:41:00.004-05:00

BMW 328i - 20,000 Miles of Very Nice

Elle is 18 months old and has clocked in a bit over 20,000 miles. Over the Easter weekend we took a quick run to Anderson, TX (about 200 miles round-trip). Elle instills tons of confidence when passing, although the Excess Speed Alert chimes just a bit too much. On the Toll Roads it will chime at 83 MPH, just to keep me honest. When passing, 83 is not realistic.

BMW 330e

Old Posts:

2014 BMW 328i 1500 Mile Review

2014 BMW 328i First 500 Miles

2014 BMW 328i First 100 Miles

328 iDrive Tech: MS Outlook Contacts

328 iDrive Tech: MS Outlook Contacts (2)

2011 BMW 328i xDrive Review and Farewell

The Good

The Auto Stop/Start feature is still on my "can't decide if I hate it" list. But, long stoplights mean 2-3 minutes where Elle is not burning fossil fuels. I'm watching some of the 328-based "e" announcements - with hopes that the rough restart is solved. Then again, the weight additions for the Hybrid do not look promising (so far.)

The Bad

Eco-Pro Mode is hideous. Another nanny-state solution that simply does not work in the real world. I cannot see any reason to switch it on for more than a chance to heckle the feature. I have never been able to add >5 miles to a tank of gas, never able to get to +1 more MPG, never reached a mere 2% improvement. It kills the fun and yields nearly nothing.
AS/S rough restarts can be defeated by slipping the brake, pushing the button on above the starter, of sliding the shift lever into Sport mode. It's love/hate on this feature.
The iDrive system hates my 32 Gig music drive. It fails to resume play and fails to return to the Current Playback song. I'm willing to cut my playlist... but dang, this is annoying.

The Ugly

There is not enough open road in the entire state of Texas. (Same as last report).
I'll never buy another BMW without xDrive. I'm only an OK driver, so the xDrive was a very good friend.
The engine Double-Tap to turn off - still hate it.

Bottom Line

Eagerly waiting for June 2017 to take European delivery of an M235 with xDrive. But, worried that the political (social, cultural?) environment might be too risky.

Car and Driver Article

XMAS 2015

2015-12-12T09:30:00.002-06:00

Merry Christmas from Round Rock

Of course, 2015 was another busy year, although we spent a bit more time having fun.

As soon as school let out in June, we flew out to Pennsylvania to visit Curt, Kelley, and Thomas. The trip included several swings into Philadelphia, a trip to New York, Boston and Salem, MA. The museums in Philly were terrific, as was Valley Forge. We stayed two blocks off of Times Square in New York – which was just as frenetic as you might imagine. In Boston we stayed near Faneuil Hall and had time to take in a “haaabaaah” cruise.

Favorites from the trip: New York pizza by the slice, Chinese food in Chinatown in Philly, and ice cream from a working dairy near the Spanglers’ house. But the biggest highlight from the trip was our tour bus being hit by a NYPD car. The kids checked the box on visiting: NY, NJ, PA, CT and MA.

That was just a warm-up for the rest of the summer. Phil and Holly went to the water park a few times and had friends from California come out and visit.

Holly spent the year on Music and Sports. She’s playing clarinet in symphonic select band. That means we pay a lot of money for private lessons now. We have been to several concerts, but a huge (Yuge!) all-day event at the Round Rock sports complex was the best. She is also in the advanced Choir. She has found a true love for music.

Holly has continued playing basketball but decided not to try out for the 8^th grade team this year. She will be ready next year… and will probably still be one of the tallest girls on the court. Jr High has certainly agreed with her. She is doing great in school. She scored in the top 3% for math on the Texas standardized test. She loved Boston so much she wants to go to MIT. (Retirement is overrated).

Phillip started the year off fast, with Boy Scouts, basketball, and soccer. Funny, we left Washington to avoid the rain, and Phillip’s soccer season was entirely rained out – culminating in the Memorial Day flooding. Since school restarted, he has spent lots of time honing his YouTube and Minecraft skills. He did get to host an epic birthday party – complete with video gaming truck. He is doing well in school and has earned a spot on the honor role for the last three years. Intelligence is not his problem; motivation seems to be hard to come by. He really is a sweet and loving boy. Holly and Phil are close and that makes Christy happy.

Christy is working as a florist again and really loves what she is doing. She is only working part-time but has booked about 1000 hours this year. It is good to see her so happy with what she does. I’m trying to keep her busy because she is talking about showing dogs again.

She continued working on the house. More paint, flooring, draperies, wallpaper removed from the kids’ bathroom… (It never really ends). Highlight of her year – a solo Trip to California, to spend time with her girlfriends, which turned into an impromptu road-trip to Disneyland. Her Garmin fitness tracker said she slept 4 hours over three days.

I spent the year as a professional chauffeur, pool boy, and landscaper. If I could speak Spanish I think I could charge more for my service.

Last year I was certified as a 4-H rifle coach, and this year I earned his pistol coaching certificate. Lots of time at the range means I can hit the broad side of a barn. Phillip and I continually discuss strategy for the zombie apocalypse.

I am enjoying my job on the Mergers and Acquisition team at Dell. You may have heard – we have a really big deal going on. Christy says it much better being around me now that I am no longer with Microsoft.

Daisy, Meg, and Olive are doing fine.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Garmin Vivofit 2M Steps and Battery Change

2015-11-06T09:32:00.005-06:00

Garmin Vivofit Review at 2,000,000+ Steps

I froze in horror when the Garmin Connect site said it was time to change the battery in my 18-month-old Garmin Vivofit. But they provided a link to a simple, step-by-step video and the process only took a few minutes to complete. Now that it's fully recharged, here are my observations at the 2,000,000+ step milestone.

Garmin Vivofit 1000000 Steps

Garmin Vivofit 500000 Steps

Garmin Vivofit 400000 Steps

Garmin Vivofit First 300000 Steps

Garmin Vivofit on Amazon (Affiliate Link)

Good

In 18 months, I have only removed the Vivofit to dress a turkey. Just couldn't see getting all of that "ick" on the band. Otherwise, it has been on my wrist nearly 24x7. That's why I was so hesitant to change the battery. Waterproof? Yep. Water park, swimming pool, dishes, yard work, showers, baths, hot tubs, wading across the river, it just works.

The RED "Move Bar" is motivating without being annoying.

The Sleep functionality was the biggest surprise. Watching sleep cycles over days and weeks gave me insight into long work weeks, crash and burn weekends (12 hours in bed?!?) and the train schedule - tossing and turning at the exact some time every night when the train passes by.

Bad

I went on a long summer vacation and did not sync prior to leaving. The Garmin Vivofit keeps about two weeks of data. When I got home... I had lost a couple weeks of data. You have to get in the habit of syncing every week, and need to make sure to sync prior to any long vacation. The ANT stick required for sync should probably be replaced by a simple Bluetooth connection.

The Vivofit also does not like shopping carts. When pushing a cart around a grocery store the lack of arm swing (motion) does not trigger step counts. I've been pushing carts with my right hand, just to allow the Vivofit to swing properly.

Ugly

The only "ugly" is that my model didn't have any heart rate monitoring features. Prices have fallen (a lot) and the basic pedometer functionality is just fine. But my MD was only a little supporting my 1000-mile accomplishment. She said walking is just not enough. When I'm ready to upgrade I'll include heart-rate monitoring so I can demonstrate that yard work is aerobic exercise.

The Bottom Line

If you need to get up off the couch and get started, the Garmin Vivofit at $50 is a good deal. It works as advertised and provides enough subtle motivation to keep moving. For the more active, the Vivofit doesn't do all the things that a $250+ device can do... so look a bit higher in the feature and cost curve.

BMW 328i 12000 Mile Review

2015-11-06T08:48:00.003-06:00

BMW 328i - 12,000 Miles of Very Nice

Elle is 14 months old and has clocked in a bit over 12,000 miles. No, fuss, no muss, all very nice. In fact, a bit too nice. Texas roads tend to be wide, flat, fast with long, slow-sweeping curves. Mustangs, Chargers, Challengers, Corvettes, Camaros... they are all over the place. Texas roads are just fine for American muscle cars. Elle finds these roads boring.

Old Posts:

2014 BMW 328i 1500 Mile Review

2014 BMW 328i First 500 Miles

2014 BMW 328i First 100 Miles

328 iDrive Tech: MS Outlook Contacts

328 iDrive Tech: MS Outlook Contacts (2)

2011 BMW 328i xDrive Review and Farewell

The Good

Trading down from the inline 6 to the 2.0l proved to be a very reasonable trade. The new engine spins a lot more, but with the transmission in Sport mode it moves along just fine. With the addition of Auto Stop/Start the gas mileage is 5 MPG better than my older 328ix. I give the improvement almost entirely to AS/S. I've never been able to accumulate significant savings under ECO-Mode. Where my normal commute is about 20 minutes, it can stretch to 30 depending on stop lights. AS/S means I'm not burning fuel during most of that 10-minute pause.

The Bad

Eco-Pro Mode seems to be ineffective. With the exception of releasing the transmission to allow "coasting" this feature seems weak.
AS/S yes, it provides fuel efficiency, but rough restarts and engine turn-offs while waiting for let turns are still annoying. Parking in the garage has proved exciting on several occasions when the engine restarted... BMW provides more than a few ways to defeat this feature, but some logic tied to engaging hand-brake when at a full stop wold be nice.
The phone book and contacts feature forced me to reconsider and change my telephone usage. The trade-off of Stereo pre-sets for telephone numbers is merely OK. See the links above for longer discussion.

The Ugly

There is not enough open road in the entire state of Texas. And, I don't have enough money to pay for any exercise of speed that would equate to "fun".
I didn't get the xDrive. I totally blew it. Unlike Alex, Elle is willing to slide around under hard acceleration, especially in right turns - going uphill. In Texas we might go weeks between rain. Then we get inches of rain and the street becomes very slick. xDrive is the answer - probably my biggest disappointment.
The engine Double-Tap to turn off - hate it.

Bottom Line

Eagerly waiting for June 2017 to take European delivery of an M2 with xDrive. I want smaller, faster and more fun... will all four wheels on the ground.

2014 BMW 328i - 10000 Mile Review

2015-07-13T08:32:00.001-05:00

2014 BMW 328i - 10000 Mile Review

My current BMW, Elle, finally rolled over the 10,000 mile mark. Lessons from previous reviews remain (mostly) intact. I had the chance to drive a couple other cars - an older Pontiac G6 and and new Jetta SE, while on vacation. This helped sharpen my opinion.

First, the other cars: The G6 was one of the last, best Pontiacs. The seats were firm and deeply bolstered. The G6 has a smooth, strong engine, efficient transmission, and sporty suspension. On the curvy roads in PA it was a pretty good ride.

The second car was a Jetta SE. The VW driving experience was tight, but the small engine always seemed to be hunting for the correct gear. On the freeways of PA, NJ, NY and MA the Jetta was much quieter than the Pontiac, and the VW handled the expansion seems much better. The Pontiac delivered a strong report at each seam. As a long-time VW driver I know that I have my bias, so add a grain of salt to my preference for the VW.

As an aside: Texas toll roads make sense - fully automated, wide-open, 80 MPH limits. Toll roads back east are crowded, poorly maintained, and have people in booths to collect $1.70 tolls(?). Advantage - Texas.

Alex - my first BMW.

The Good

The first 10,000 miles were totally uneventful. Elle notified me when her oil needed to be changed (about 8500 miles). Acceleration is still great, gas mileage is still great, and overall ride is still smooth and luxurious. Sport mode is fun. In fact, BMW should only ship cars with Sport Mode.

2014 BMW 328i - previous posts:

The First 100 Miles
The First 500 Miles
1,500 Mile Review (How we chose "Elle" for her name).
Tech: BMW 328i - and MS Outlook Contacts (Part 1)
Tech: BMW 328i - Outlook Contacts (Part 2)
2011 BMW 328i XDrive Farewell

The Bad

Two features just need to be dropped from future versions. ECO mode isn't worth the savings. In one of my previous posts I called it "Corolla-esque", which might be disparaging to the Toyota. Much like the Jetta, ECO mode forces low RPM and a lot of shifting in heavy traffic. The second feature that should be dropped in the rotation of the passenger side mirror when backing up. It seems logical to want to see the curb, but most of my backing is not into curbside spaces.

When the seats are compared to the Pontiac and VW the BMW seats seem a bit flat and un-supportive. The seats in the 2011 328i were better.

The Ugly

While Elle gets a clean review, Austin BMW does not. A basic oil change led to preemptive windshield wiper replacement ($100+). And the only part that I actually requested, the small circular sticker that holds the floor mat in place, is still outstanding -- 2 months later.

Redmond BMW has their stuff together, Austin BMW still needs work.

Bottom Line

Elle is a nice car. But I miss Alex.

I'm not even a full year into the lease and I'm lusting after the new 340ix.

~Tot1

Consensus Fail

2015-06-09T13:01:00.003-05:00

Quakers, Occupy Wall Street, and Consensus

A few days ago, I noticed that one of my favorite economics blogs " NakedCapitalism added an "I Support the Occupy Movement" banner. I blinked twice, reloaded the page, and checked to see if some misaligned advertisement or other glitch was responsible.

No, (sigh) and certainly confirmed after reading "Why the Consensus Process Has a Poor Track Record in Activist Movements". Yves Smith posts an article by L. A. Kauffman from the Berkeley Journal of Sociology - The Theology of Consensus.

Disclaimer: I attended U. C. Berkeley for 1 month in 1979, before transferring to a school run by "liberal" Jesuits, the University of San Francisco - one of my few great decisions of my youth.

The Jesuits did a great job instilling my lifelong pursuit of learning, and the appreciation of different perspectives. I do not place NakedCapitalism outside of what I consider mainstream economic blogs, - it's on my Feedly "A" list. But the addition of the banner, and lack of any disclaimer in front of this article, has adjusted my understanding of their point of view.

That being said, the collision of the banner, the article, my previous blogs on Occupy Wall Street (OWS), along with the completion of a class "Converting Strategy into Action" from the Stanford SAPM program created context for this post. I will be pulling many quotes from the article - linked above - and will mark all in italics, my comments will be in bold. I have included links to many of my posts from the OWS period - it was a very productive time for my writing (ranting).

Consensus Fail

Kauffman provides historical context, and identifies the problem, but seems to stop short after recommending "apostasy" or renunciation of religious or political belief. I would point out that the religious belief (revelation of God's Will) has been stripped from the activist playbook - Kauffman provides examples. So, are the activists to give up the political belief - which seems to be their more closely held "religious" tenant?

L. A. Kauffman: Berkeley Journal of Sociology - The Theology of Consensus.

Maybe there is another prescription.

My Two Cents

"A 1943 “Guide to Quaker Practice” explained, “The principle of corporate guidance, according to which the Spirit can inspire the group as a whole, is central. Since there is but one Truth, its Spirit, if followed will produce unity.” Consensus process will eventually yield a decision, in other words, because discussing, listening, and waiting will ultimately reveal God’s will. Patience will lead to Truth."

Linking Quaker leadership practices to the Occupy Wall Street movement is almost too hard for me to comprehend… but, there it is, and Kauffman provides examples to other activist movements. I was not a fan of OWS, in part because of their agenda, and a lot because of their execution. The blog posts linked below are from 2001, but provide a great summary of my position.

My Occupy Wall Street Blogs (Oct and Nov 2011)

Theory and Practice - Reality Gets in the Way

"In practice, the process [Consensus] often worked well in small-group settings, including within the affinity groups that often formed the building blocks for large actions. At the scale of a significant mobilization, though, the process was fraught with difficulty from the start. "

"A similar dynamic played out in Occupy Wall Street almost a quarter century later, where the general assembly proved ill-equipped to address the day-to-day needs of the encampment. Though On Conflict and Consensus assured organizers that “Formal Consensus is not inherently time-consuming,” experience suggested otherwise. The process favored those with the most time, as meetings tended to drag out for hours; in theory, consensus might include everyone in all deliberations, but in practice, the process greatly favored those who could devote limitless time to the movement — and made full participation difficult for those with ordinary life commitments outside of their activism."

The irony, that some people would "devote limitless time" (read: limitless resources) to a movement that decried people with, well, limitless resources. In "theory"… resources are always limited, why would time be excluded? Irony #2 - those with the most resources tended to push their agenda on the OWS movement. Wow. Amazing.

Sometimes, that forced groups to reckon with critical issues that the majority might otherwise ignore, which could indeed be powerful and transformative. But it also consistently empowered cranks, malcontents, and even provocateurs to lay claim to a group’s attention and gum up the works, even when groups adopted modifications to strict consensus that allowed super-majorities to override blocks.

"Great decisions, great ideas, great innovation, always come from a mob." ~Ever, Noone

The prime appeal of consensus process for 40 years has been its promise to be more profoundly democratic than other methods. This promise has been repeated again and again like dogma. But let’s face it: the real-world evidence is shaky at best. Perhaps the reason why it has endured so long in activist circles despite its evident practical shortcomings has something to do with the theological character it carried over from Quaker religious practice, the way it addresses a deep desire for transcendent group unity and “higher truth.”

Profound democracy as dogma? Sorry, that really needs an edit. Socialism as dogma. Ah, much better. Image a perfect world where every single decision about every single thing was decided by every single person coming together to discuss, negotiate, come to consensus and move forward. What a perfect… disaster. So, we need a committee! People who are smart, empathetic, able to make decisions that everyone else will like… no, not like --- LOVE!

Perfection does not sit well on a scale.

If the forty-year persistence of consensus has been a matter of faith, surely the time has now come for apostasy. Piety and habit are bad reasons to keep using a process whose benefits are more notional than real. Outside of small-group settings, consensus process is unwieldy, off-putting, tiresome, and ineffective. Many inclusive, accountable alternative methods are available for making decisions democratically. If we want to change the world, let’s pick ones that work.

Oh, so close… admitting a problem is the first step, but Kauffman doesn't go any further.

A New Prescription

Step 1 - Pile a group of activists into a Nissan Leaf (it will be a small, but environmentally friendly group)

Step 2 - Drive the fifty miles from U. C. Berkeley to Stanford University (don’t forget bridge tolls for "the man")

Step 3 - Pony up the money for "Converting Strategy into Action", take the class, study the concepts, and adopt new practices

Step 4 - Create a business plan (you know, hierarchy, roles, responsibilities) using the Strategic Execution Framework

Step 5 - Use the Strategic Execution Map to align Customer wants with your project-based work. (You do know what your customer wants - right? You may be surprised if it is not the same thing that you want.)

Step 6 - Make sure your leaders have talent, your followers share a common vision, and take your best shot. (No worries, the failure rate is brutal, good effort is sometimes the best reward).

Bottom Line - Bitter Pill

Consensus and "Pure Democracy" might work just fine in a group of Late Cycle (See Moore's Adoption Cycle), religiously aligned Quakers. The Quakers have the discipline to wait for their answers to be revealed. Revealed in the religious sense.

Applying that same process to a group trying to "Change the World" has proved, well, not efficacious. Being wrong on execution for 40 years is no way to advance your agenda and may even be alienating potential "customers". Discipline is rare because political alignment is a myth.

Apply business principles, a bit of entrepreneurial leadership, account for future organizational growth… and create customers by drawing them to an attractive product.

Yes, I know, a bitter, bitter pill.

~Tot1

CrowdFire

2015-05-29T10:10:00.003-05:00

The Crowdfire App (Formerly JustUnfollow)

My Twitter Feed started to feel a lot like Facebook. Sure, I was following a lot of people, most for very good reasons, but the noise level was finally drowning out the signal. Promoted Tweets were not helping, and I had reached the "why am I doing this moment". I needed a Twitter reset.

How can an application change from "JustUnfollow" to an application to grow your engagement? Crowdfire makes the transition, and here are the steps to leverage their tool.

Opening the Kimono - My Twitter Stats

Click for larger image.

Twitter provides a unique platform for communication. But when the communication channel gets crammed with noise, it starts to fail. Ever have a conversation in a noisy restaurant? Well, my feed was like having a conversation at the Indy 500. It was either give up, or make significant changes.

JustUnfollow

The JustUnfollow app on a tablet provided the ability to see "inactive" users. Click to discover if someone had not posted a Tweet in 30+, 60+ or 90+ days. This was reasonably handy, but it was limited to the people that you follow. This is a great place to start - with a simple premise: if someone has not posted in more than a month, they are not really communicating.

Spring Cleaning Process

My goal on Twitter is not to have a million followers. That would be nice, but communicating with impact to a million people is not where I want to be. Reading Tweets from celebrities and other media types is boring - a total time sink.

Even the mainstream news people on Twitter are boring. They are unlikely to break news via Twitter - when they are paid to break news on their broadcast or cable channel. "Catch my show at 9:00", "My Special Guest is Joe Expert", "What did you think of the XYZ package?" Yes, I want to see the conversations, but they do not need to be in my normal feed. (Texas people: ever go to a BBQ place and have them hand you a full loaf of white bread with your order? Same thing - a slice or two is nice, but an entire loaf just distracts from the main course.)

Politicians are also pretty boring on Twitter. Inability to speak from the heart on a platform with a microphone, becomes dyslexic, tongue-twisted torture in 140 characters (or less). A mistake at a gathering in South Carolina will hit the airwaves for 2 minutes, on Twitter it echos... and takes on a life of it's own.

Action Item: Move all Media People and Politicians to Lists, then Unfollow.

Twitter Fans on Crowdfire

I follow plenty of people that do not follow me back. [Hello: @CondoleezzaRice. Follow me, maybe?] I scrub new followers to remove the "Buy Followers", "Please Fund Me", "Check Out My New Photos" Twitter-trolls. Crowdfire provides a quick list of "Fans" - people that follow me, that I do not follow back. The count was surprising (356!), some had dropped from Twitter, they would not be in the Inactive User List, some were doppelganger accounts (yeah, some of my favorite accounts end up in Twitmo on occasion), some accounts were just odd.

Action Item: Scrub the "Fans" list

Manually reviewing 350+ profiles forces the tough decision making process. Why are they following me? Do we have followers in common (is that enough to keep a fan)? Review their stream, are they posting stuff that is important to me? Are they posting original thoughts, or just re-tweeting noise? Verdict -- 356 fans reduced to 52. Some were moved to lists, some were followed, but the vast majority Blocked. Twitter does not have a elegant way to force people to unfollow. (Sorry)

Action Item: Scrub the Followers list

This is a total pain. Not only is the list longer, but the clicks required to block any follower is monotonous. First - remove inactive accounts. Crowdfire includes a small data element showing when the account last posted. If you haven't posted in the last 30 days, you're off my list. Second - if your posts are in a foreign language, and only occasionally in English, sorry. Finally, if you are solely on Twitter to promote a business (of any kind) and are not providing content that I need, bye-bye.

Question: How many times can I read the "10 Ways to Improve your LinkedIn Profile" without seeing anything new? The Tweep that has supporting content stays on my list.

270 of the 1570 followers were cut. Pretty close to 80/20 Pareto Perfection.

Bottom Line:

My feed is much more focused, the signal to noise has been improved dramatically, and Tweeps that I really care about are getting more of my attention. I added a couple of items to my Twitter task list:

Review Lists (Politicians, Media, etc.), as needed, for content
Build Lists in specific areas (Central TX, Technology and OneNote, Education)
Build Community (Writers, Authors, Publishers)

Crowdfire changed their product offering from JustUnfollow - it really helped me to prune my Twitter account. Now, onto building my community.

~Tot1

Sig Sauer Mosquito - Sour Taste

2015-04-13T09:20:00.000-05:00

Sig Sauer Mosquito - Sour Taste

The internet is always right… most of the time.

Last year I purchased a Sig Sauer Mosquito (22LR) for two specific reasons. First, I wanted to have a pistol that was easy to handle, reliable and not over-powering - so that my wife and kids could get accustomed to shooting. The second reason was to provide home defense since we lived a full 30 minutes from any police response.

Sig Sauer link at Cabela's

The allure of the Mosquito is the compact size - scaled at 90% of a regular pistol, and ability to shoot 22LR - which is really cheap - under 10 cents per round. Several YouTube videos made the specific point that the Mosquito: is easy to handle, does not have much recoil, and uses cheap ammunition, which makes for a great training gun.

Over the winter we put several hundred rounds through the Mosquito, will deteriorating results.

See our previous blog: Shooting Log

Sig Sauer Mosquito FTF
Low confidence for use in home defense.

Problem: Ammunition - Reliability and Availability

Several YouTube videos pointed to problems with Failure to Eject and misfeeds. Crappy ammunition was blamed. Our initial experience with CCI Mini-Mag showed flawless performance. Ammunition by anyone else, well, not so much. The availability of 22LR is a problem, and the availability of the good stuff (CCI) is even worse.

The spouse and the boy got used to clearing a misfeed, which is fine for the "training" part of our goal. After all, any pistol can have a misfeed or misfire which requires intervention. But this behavior is a total "fail" for home defense requirements.

Pointing a pistol at an intruder might discourage a few intruders. A single, well-placed round of 22LR might discourage a few more. But not being able to dissuade a motivated intruder by unloading an entire clip is a big problem.

Range Experience

Red's Indoor range has a lead control solution that requires cold outside air to be pumped into the range. The cold air flows from behind the shooting line down the entire length of the lanes. When it is cold outside, it's cold inside. And, when it was cold the Mosquito performed very well.

Once the weather started warming up, and once we tried to use less expensive ammunition, we started seeing the ejection and feeding problems. My cleaning routine does not leave a pistol wet… clean - yes, lubricated - yes, but wet - no. After two shooting and cleaning sessions in April, I am convinced that dirt (and lubrication) is not the issue.

Solution

I'm torn about the solution. We shoot 22LR in both the Mosquito and a Henry Golden Boy. Unlike others at the range, we often run through a couple hundred rounds -- for under $20. The ease of handling and low cost make range time very productive. But for home defense the Mosquito does not inspire confidence.

Options

Move to a new platform (9mm?)

Find a solution to the Mosquito misfeed

Find a supply of CCI and keep it for home use only

Other (Hey, I'm open to suggestions)

Bottom Line

Meatloaf was wrong… "two out of three" is horrible.

~Tot1

Wisdom of Crowds - NCAA March Madness Version

2015-03-27T09:54:00.005-05:00

March Madness and the Wisdom of Crowds

You don't have to look far to find tear stained brackets from the NCAA March Madness Tournament. Millions of people created brackets and millions were wrong. The question continues to deserve inspection:

Which advice is better, the advice of an expert, or the advice of a crowd?

Did the Crowd get March Madness right?

Cow-ontology, Bracketology and
The Wisdom of Crowds

Why is Bracketology Important?

Chris Godfrey (@DaWordOfGodfrey) provides an enlightened reasoning:

"As an added bonus, the winner of the Busted Brackets from Busting Brackets Tournament Challenge (copyright pending) will also receive — a man’s hat.

Allow me to explain. In college, my buddy Sam (a frequent contributor to my mailbag and a future member of the Order of Canada) would annually organize a bracket pool where the winner would receive a random item. For example, one year a stuffed rat was involved. It was our college basketball answer to the ridiculousness of rivalry game trophies in college football where teams play for random stuff all the time (boots, skillets, bronzed pigs, a slab of bacon, etc.).

The most coveted item we ever competed for was a man’s hat. I can’t tell you why the hat meant so much. We literally found it on the ground outside of our apartment. However, I would have killed a man for that hat. It was our grand prize.

It was a man’s hat.

It was special.

This year I nominate this snazzy number as the hat that will go to our winner."

Clearly the answer is: Brackets are important because they are.

Bracket Busting Metrics:

Not only was Warren Buffet's Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge killed (damned lawyers), but it's clear that he knows how to offer an un-winnable bet.

Washington Post - Don't Worry, Everyone Else's NCAA Tournament Bracket is Busted, too.

ESPN Bracket (11.57 million people): Just 14 Brackets Get Entire Sweet 16 Correct

President Obama's Bracket - Declining Success, Year over Year

Yahoo Sports - Millions of Brackets Busted in Less than Five Hours

BustingBrackets - NCAA Tournament: Busted Brackets from BustingBracks

At the end of the NFL Season I posted a blog with several important questions about my success, and the general success of players in the Yahoo Pro-Pickem pools: NFL Pro-Pickem - Wisdom of Crowds.

If the Crowd is so Wise, Why can't the Crowd win?

My brackets are dying. A slow death by a thousand paper cuts. Four of my first round eliminations were decided by a single point. The Second round was equally soul crushing.

Purdue (1 point game)

Indiana (5 point game)

Oklahoma State (6 points)

Baylor (1 point)

VCU (3 points)

SMU (1 point)

Iowa State (1 point)

Providence (13 points)

My East bracket is dead (Villanova), and if Kentucky, Wisconsin or Gonzaga fall, I could be watching Professional Curling on ESPN-Canada-4. I certainly won't be glued to the TV to see my teams in the Final 4.

Clearly the answer is: The ability to of a crowd to guess the weight of a cow is not the same as asking thousands of people to predict a perfect bracket.

More Data Please

In my previous post I asked if a math wizard at Yahoo Sports would take on the challenge to explain why the Crowd lost.

The ask was for:

What was the mean Pickem selection?

Would Yahoo Sports create a "player" with a Pickem profile to recognize the exact mean picks

Would they recognize the people that made the best tail picks - the least likely (most standard deviations away from the mean) picks -- that were correct.

Bottom Line:

I predict that someone will earn a PhD and will write a commercially successful book based on the failure of crowds to win at Bracketology, Pro-Pickem and other pools.

And, I predict that I will continue to challenge the Wisdom of Crowds.

~Tot1
Also, I predict that climate-deniers are correct.

Rant Do Us a Favor and Don't

2015-03-09T18:41:00.000-05:00

Rant - Do Us a favor and Don't

Disclaimers First

We have three dogs
I'm the VP of our HOA
I walk about 10 miles a week in our HOA and the adjoining HOA
Both of the HOAs provide bags for picking up dog poop. (See example below).

Common Courtesy and Uncommon Stupidity

It doesn't take a genius to understand the concept. Both HOAs would like people that walk their dogs to be responsible for cleaning up the mess.

But for some reason, we have a few idiots (I was going to say %!#$**-wipes but my spell checker kept correcting to wet-wipes), that:

Leave their house to walk their dog without a baggie
Decide to use the baggie from from the HOA provided station
Pick up the poop, tie the bag
Drop it on the grass next to the sidewalk
Expect the magic poop fairy to come and pick up their poop

Magical Poop Reclamation

Please notice that there is another version of the Dog Clean Up Station. It is outfitted with a garbage can.

I guess we could provide a garbage can at each station. And, we could pay someone to come take away the poop. We would have to pay them... this is not a "volunteer friendly" type of chore. Are you willing to let me raise your HOA dues to pay for this additional service?

Also, call me a cynic, unless the idiot's dog poops right in front of the station, it's unlikely that the bag will actually get into the garbage can. Please note my exact position on this subject: dogs are not idiots, stupid %!#$**-wipes owners that don't take responsibility for their dogs are idiots.

So What is the Rant?

You own a dog (I can appreciate that). You walk your dog (bravo!). But you can't seem to understand that wrapping dog poop in a plastic bag and throwing it in the grass is just idiotic. No one driving by is going to stop and pick it up. No one jogging by is going to pick it up. No one walking by is going to pick it up.

Why go half-ass on doing the right thing?

Let's make a deal... If your dog poops on the sidewalk, please clean it up and take it home and throw it away. Your mess, your responsibility.

If your dog poops on the grass, don't tie it in a plastic bag that will take 3.4 million years to biodegrade, or that will be shredded by the landscape company into hundreds of bits of plastic that will take 3.2 million years to biodegrade. I'm willing to let nature takes it course.

Just do us both a favor and don't... half-ass your responsibilities.

~Tot1

Or, you might consider upgrading your dog!
Our poodles are smart enough not to poop on the sidewalk.
And, we're responsible enough to take care of our own poop.

Garmin Vivofit 1000000 Steps

2015-03-09T16:22:00.000-05:00

Garmin Vivofit 1,000,000 Steps

How to walk 1,000,000 Steps in Less than 6 months - Lessons Learned

The First Lesson is simple: You have to get up and walk. I have had peaks and valleys since I started wearing the Garmin Vivofit on 11/24, but stepping out of the front door is always a good step towards victory.

Daily Chart of Steps
Notice the valleys about 2-3 after the 14000+ peaks
(Click on Chart for a larger version)

The Peaks:

My longest streak for beating the target was 17 days in January, and my current daily average is 8949 steps per day (about 4.5 miles). At 1 million steps I will have walked 500 miles in under six months.
Lesson #2 - If you hit your target early in the day, the rest is gravy. My biggest day was on a Boy Scout camp-over. I walked early in the morning to reach my goal, then spent the afternoon and evening hoofing around camp - running up an 18,000+ step day - or about 9 miles.
Lesson #3 - Good shoes matter. I switch back and forth from running shoes to a midweight hiker. I can definitely tell the difference the next day. The hikers give better arch and ankle support, but I can feel the harsh "slapping" on the balls of my feet. The running shoes are very light, and provide a soft heel-strike. Good music matters too.
Lesson #4 - My glucose scores have fallen as my step count has gone up, and they are in a tighter range. While I have not lost a lot of weight (a mere 5 pounds), my waist size has fallen from a 42 to a 38. And, I have a pair of 36" waist pants in the closet that I can squeeze into.

The Valleys:

I'm trying to find a way to meet the "spirit" of the Vivofit. If the goal of the Red Status Bar indicator, for being idle, is to get me moving... it's not been a good match. My work schedule includes a lot of back-to-back one-hour meetings. I tend to squeeze my steps into a long, single walk (3-4 miles in one fell swoop).
I have not been able to figure out how to take a day of rest. That is not to say that I have not rested. In fact, after several of my biggest walking days there is generally a day where I just can't get to the target.
Bad weather days (cold and rainy) are still a problem. I have gone to the YMCA a couple of times, but treadmills are still a mystery. The step count seems to match up, but the jarring and soreness seems much worse than walking outside. And, it doesn't appear that the pace reported by the treadmill (3.8 mph) is any better than my normal walking speed (about 1750 steps/per 15 minutes or ~3.5 mph). Again, the steps match, but the speed (and distance?) do not.
I was out of action a couple of days in Jan and a couple in Feb - nothing big, but it cost a few thousand steps. And, I can report that I've had no injuries due to walking (just a bit of old-man soreness). Getting back on track was not as difficult as I would have expected.

Daily Glucose Scores - The Proof is in the Score

My average daily Glucose score (dotted line) has fallen from 135 to under 120.
HbA1c from 7.3(H) in Oct 2014 to 6.6 in Jan 2015 to 6.2 in Feb

I reached 800,000 steps on Feb 22, two days after I tested for an HBa1C of 6.2 - which is well inside the standard range of 4.0 to 6.8% While my doctor still has me on medication, I'm in a much better place.

Click for Larger View

The chart above combines the blood glucose scores (blue line) with a 14 day trend line (green) compared to my daily steps (orange line, with steps divided by 100). My Glucose score should be below the top black line - 120, and my steps above the bottom black line 100 (*100=10,000). Notice that when the step count crashes, the glucose score spikes.

I also track days where I miss my medication (metformin), which happen to coincide with days where I was out of action ("non-walk") days. My blood sugar score will spike if I miss a dose, so I'm not out of the woods (yet). But it seems clear that >8000 steps a day helps keep control.

March 14... 1,000,000 Steps

Bottom Line

On March 14th, 110 days after I started wearing the Garmin Vivofit, I passed 1,000,000 steps. I still need to work on taking more steps throughout the day, and still need to figure out how to get steps in bad weather.

It's a huge win! For the cost of a $90 Garmin Vivofit from Amazon I've been able to push my HbA1c score down, my waist size down, and my legs are very strong and shapely for the first time in a long time.

Now, time to attack the scale and get into those 36" pants.

~Tot1

Books, Bookstores, and Economics

2015-02-03T09:12:00.001-06:00

Books, Bookstores and Economics

The Macrotots blog will never make me rich. I'll never have thousands of followers on my Twitter account. I'm Ok with that - because I understand that the small bits of the world that I find fascinating are not really mainstream (sorry, no puppies, kittens, or Kardasians here).

What I blog and Tweet about are Politics and Economics. Feedly consolidates the content, and for the most part the daily collection of articles are routine. This morning I am really sad.

San Francisco Politicians Killed a Bookstore

Here is the story: Minimum Wage Maximum Sorrow for San Francisco Bookstore

Here is Borderlands Books homepage with the closing announcement.

Politicians in both Seattle and San Francisco believe they can dictate minimum wages, and that everyone will be more prosperous, that social inequity managed by social justice will be more "just".

Once again, reality conflicts with the plans of the pie-in-the-sky touchy-feely do-gooders.

Do politicians understand that BIG BUSINESS really doesn't care about a minimum wage increase? Why would it? Smaller competitors get wiped out when political, regulatory, and economic barriers are raised.

In the end all that is left is BIG BUSINESS and the GOVERNMENT.

/EndRant

~Tot1

Realtor Newsletter Suggestions

2015-02-02T12:50:00.001-06:00

Realtor Newsletter Suggestions

Are newsletters effective or are you just spending time and money? If relationships are initiated by content, and content is "King”, what would I suggest for an agent - or a Realty office that is willing create a newsletter to support their agents?

I’m not a Real Estate Agent
Have you read my blog disclaimer?

The average agent completed 7 transactions in 2009, based on the 2010 Realtors Member Profile, reported by tampamoves.com. My wife and I met in 1999. Since then we have

bought and sold 2 condominiums, bought and sold four houses, and are living in the most recent purchase – a fifth house.

A decade ago the one bedroom condo in California was under $75,000. The house we bought in 2012 (around $400k), was remodeled and sold in 2014 (over $600k). We moved from California to Ohio, to Texas to Washington, and back to Texas. That may sound like a lot, but I am an Army brat, we moved every 2-3 years growing up. So, I’m not a real estate expert, but will I claim plenty of life experience when it comes to moving, buying, and selling.

About Your Newsletter Content

Reporting national trends is interesting, but it does not engage me more than reading the mainstream media, or watching the local news. You can try to compete with Community Impact - a local newspaper with real estate sales data, but providing the same data… is pointless. Your newsletter can go direct to the circular file, or it can be a valuable resource. Their data does not reflect the underlying story – WHY did something happen?

What Do You Know, Specific to my Neighborhood?

Homes in my HOA sell from about $100 to $125 per square foot. Why? What should I be doing to my home to make it sales ready - next week, next month, or next year? I want to sell at the best price possible, and usually I have a timeline. You have a professional opinion about the market – why aren’t you sharing it?

Does your office see specific issues that impact closing? Are appraisals coming in strong or weak? Is a particular problem, specific to my neighborhood or region, common enough that a homeowner needs to resolve it before listing? Our 20-year old neighborhood is sprinkled with 20-year old pools, 20-year old kitchens, 20-year old bathrooms... What does a homeowner need to consider prior to listing? What specifically makes the $25 difference - other than you?

Our biggest find in Washington was a local hardware store that had everything (and I mean everything) for our 30 year old home. We were able to replace 17" round sinks from their on-hand inventory - and even had a choice of manufacturers. We also found a garage door company that had our wood panels in stock. We were able to replace a single panel ($200) compared to an entire door ($1000).

A contractor explain the three shingles theory - as the economy got tight, contractors (first shingle) shed employees. Many hung out a shingle (second) by opening their own shop. As things got worse, many more were cut, and opened shop. The first shingle had capital and expertise, the second, expertise, the third - who knows. (Same idea, different framework: Master - Disciple - Epigones)

What is your opinion about the new school that opened, the two new principals, the new superintendent and change to the feeder pattern? Maybe you don't have an opinion, but you probably know somebody that does.

Interest Rate Trends - A Picture is Worth 1000 Words...

...but I don't understand your Language

Click on Image for larger version.
Dozens of charts show interest rate history.

I just wanted to let you know that I got your email about falling interest rates. But, I’m not sure how this helps (or hurts). I know that you see these charts every day. What do they mean to the consumer? Can you provide a specific example to make a chart make sense?

Freddie Mac - Weekly Market Survey

What would you say to me if we had lunch together...?

Calculated Risk - Chart
Where is "missing" 15 year mortgage data?

The chart above from Calculated Risk (30 Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 3.68%). The article provides context: "Today is officially the first day we can say that rate sheets are at least as good as May 21st, 2013, the day before Bernanke's congressional testimony unofficially kicked off the taper tantrum and sent mortgage rates quickly higher." And, they reinforce a real estate rule: "Historically refinance activity picks up significantly when mortgage rates fall about 50 bps from a recent level."

Your message might look like this:

“If you secured a new mortgage in August or September of 2012 you are probably paying around 4.5% interest. Rates have moved down below 4%. Refinancing a $250,000 mortgage (not atypical for my neighborhood) would save $x. Refinance points and fees can be recovered within Y-months.” Don't forget to add a call to action if you have a recommendation.

Or: "If you got a new mortgage between May 2013 and January of this year, you might want to start watching rates".

Or: “If you purchased in early 2000 (quite possible, and certainly close enough, in my neighborhood), the original loan might be at 8% interest. Rates are half of that now. Refinancing might save you half of your interest payment."

Or, this: "Did you notice the blue line on the chart? 15 year mortgages weren't a big deal in 2000. Rather than refinancing to a 30 year fixed, you might consider a 15 year fixed. Your payoff date doesn’t change and your payment might still be reduced...”

What do you know about somebody that has lived in a nice neighborhood of 4-5 bedroom homes for 14 years? Are there kids still at home? Are they planning to retire, downsize, right-size?

Can you show, in the matter of a few sentences or paragraphs, that you understand the customer? Can you uncover a need, initiate a relationship and call the homeowner to action?

Is Anything Important Changing or Likely to Change?

Have any real estate “rules” or “rules of thumb” changed? Many potential customers have been out of the market for years. Those huge draperies and Italian wall texture – that Tuscan look, were popular – with an emphasis on “were” – 15 years ago. Long term owners may pay attention to sales in the neighborhood, and may track sales data, but may be clinging to old rules.

What is changing about first mortgages, second mortgages, HELOC and other loans, or even the process of securing a loan? What political / legal issues are on the horizon? Are any changes to mortgage deductibility, transfer taxes, mortgage insurance, estate taxes, property insurance worth mentioning? Find the articles, cite the experts then call the homeowner to action - ready to discuss the topics from an informed real estate agent point of view.

Rule: Master Bathrooms Sell Homes

Well, maybe – but here is a different example: The home we remodeled in Washington had a water leak in the hall bathroom. The leak trickled down a wall between the living room and the garage and damaged the ceiling in the living room. The damage that was fixed prior to our purchase as a closing condition from the mortgage company. But the lender did not require that the leak be fixed, just that the ceiling be patched and painted.

The first suspect was a toilet with a broken bowl, and a continuous water flow. The 1970s era, peach-colored toilet was replaced along with the other two toilets in the house, and the plumber replaced all of the water supply valves, hose bibs, and supply lines for all of the toilets and the outside faucets.

Funny thing, the toilet was on the wrong side of the room to be causing the leak. The actual leak was seeping through the floor next to the peach-colored tub. We decided to limit the use of the tub to stop further damage, then remodeled the bath. The remodel included a new toilet, new tub, a new shower mixing valve, new backer board, new tile, new sub-floor and new tile floor, new countertop, new lighting, new closet bi-fold door, and new paint. We now knew for a fact that no water was migrating through the old wall, or leaking from the old valve, or splashing out of the tub and leaking through the subfloor.

The master bathroom did get some work, but not nearly the same as the hall bath, and neither got more time and effort as the landscaping. We remediated a huge list of problems, but never fully remodeled the master bathroom.

What we learned: Fixing problems, even hidden problems, might be a better place to spend your money compared to following the "rules".

Content - Invite Experts

It’s OK to tout your agent and agency success - number of sales, number of listings, industry awards. Once you have established your credentials, what are you going to do to establish and build upon a relationship? You probably do not have a marketing expert, social media expert, or writer on your staff. So how does an agency create, or find, or repurpose content?

How many experts are in your rolodex: pool people, landscaping people, contractors, decorators, mortgage brokers, local city resources. Will they trade a few paragraphs, or a couple of sentences of “expert opinion” for a referral in your newsletter?

Bottom Line:

Use the newsletter to point back to you and your online content - you don't have to spell out every detail of your expertise
Cover a variety of topics – tailored to your audience
You do not have to provide all of the content yourself – learn how to curate content, and ask others for help

Create value in yourself by sharing, by providing expertise, and by positioning yourself as the point of contact to reach other experts.

~Tot1

Garmin Vivofit 500000 Step Review

2015-01-25T21:34:00.001-06:00

Garmin Vivofit - 500,000 Step Review

Click any graphic for
a larger view

The Garmin Vivofit that I purchased in November has been tracking all of my steps - with the exception of a single day when it stayed on the side table and I stayed in bed.

Garmin Vivofit - 400,000 Step Update
Garmin Vivofit - First 300,000 Steps

What I Have Learned

First, you need a few measured loops, simple walking loops where you know the exact distance.

500 steps to the bus stop and back
2000 steps to the lift station...
4000 to GH Street...
7000 to the elementary school...

At the beginning of the day when the Vivofit picks the target, these numbers are not overly useful. After all, a 9000 step target is not going to be satisfied by any of these. But at the end of the day, when you just need a few steps to meet your goal, having a few pre-measured loops will keep you from wandering the neighborhood like a hobo.

Second, comfortable shoes matter. I switch back and forth between a pair of mid-weight hiking boots and a pair of very light-weight running shoes. The running shoes allow for a faster pace, and the extra heel cushioning is terrific. The boots give great ankle support, at the cost of a more jarring stride. I still rotate between the two because I wear the boots when hiking (not on paved roads or sidewalks) so I need to feel their weight and support. But, for the longer loops I try to go with the running shoes.

Third, you have to have good music on your MP3 player. Hit "Random" and start walking.

What I Need to Work On

I need to work on a strategy for crappy weather. I was able to bundle up (layers) for cold weather down to 32 degrees. But cold and windy and damp are not my favorite combination. Once you get warmed up, the layers start working against you, and any attempt at relief was rewarded with chills.

Did I really miss my December target by 315 steps?
Yes, Yes I did...

I need to figure out how to relate to the Garmin Vivofit. Sure, we have come to an agreement on daily targets (the Garmin picks). And, I know that I am going to miss my daily target - my longest streak in 11 days, all during the Christmas and New years Holidays. In fact, I only surpass my target 69% of the time.

But, I missed my December monthly target by 315 Steps! The sum of the daily targets for the entire month is recorded and reported. Imagine my surprise and disappointment. In January I had a couple of very busy days and missed my daily target. I have been working to catch up.

I have not found a way to reset the daily target - which is randomly picked, but seems to trend higher every few days. My goal requires 8440 steps per day, which is well below the random picks.

Finally, I need to find time for the additional steps. I have increased my pace from 1600 steps per 15 minutes to 1800+ per 15 minutes - which is about 3.5 MPH. Much faster and I would need to start jogging. My morning routine and typical work day scores about 3500 steps. So I need to find reliable time for the other 6000 steps or so -- after taking care of wife and kids, and sports and band and scouts and...

I don't always have an hour a day to dedicate to the road.

Green Bar = High Activity
This chart shows pace of 1787, 1830, and 1828 steps per 15 minutes.
Click for larger view.

Bottom Line

I started tracking my steps with the Garmin Vivofit during the week of November 23. Since Thanksgiving I have lost seven (7) pounds and my blood pressure and HbA1C are back to normal.

I have recorded >535,000 steps, with no injuries - not even blisters. It takes me about 2071 steps to cover a mile (my score today: 14,522 steps, 7.01 miles).

Aches and pain sure -- because: old and fat. But, I suspect that jogging ~260 miles in 65 days would have been physically traumatic. Injuries limit exercise.

Walking is working for me. The Garmin Vivofit is keeping me honest and working hard.

~Tot1

Shooting Log

2015-01-21T16:52:00.000-06:00

Shooting Log

After consultation with several experts on Twitter (Jason, Carrie, Amanda and Dane), I took the advice to keep is simple and created the following shooting log to track our family results.

10pt9.com has as Shooters Journal on their site if you want something very formal.

Data Collection

My solution (confession, I'm an IT geek) is a spreadsheet with information stored in ranges so that I can pick them quickly. And, to keep it simple, a couple of free-form columns for notes. The columns in YELLOW are list driven (I have to choose from a specific list). This makes the reporting work.

The GREEN columns can take any data. For example, I made a note for a session right after Christmas. We shot indoors -- in freezing temps. We could see our breath at the firing line. Why? The range pumps outside air down the lanes in order to keep lead away from the shooters. We also shot archery indoors at Cabela's - with an instructor. I felt this was an important milestone as Tot4 moved from leather glove to a trigger release.

I need to make a couple of minor adjustments:

The Date column needs to be Date/Time
For 3P shooting, I'll need to add a column for "Position"

Click on any graphic for a larger image.

I went back and logged the 2200+ rounds (archery, pistol, and light rifle) from the last six months. As we move forward this report will start showing scores and trends. Again, the theme is simple...

This report shows Shooter, Firearm, and Rounds.

Why Track Ammo

When we added a Nikon scope to our Henry Golden Boy, the scope pointed me to the Nikon Spot On BMT Site. This site provides a calculation of bullet drop to match the reticle in the scope. It is ammo specific - just click a few boxes, and it provides the chart on the right.

Just a few hundred rounds using CCI, Remington and Federal proved the tool to be really useful - dead on at 50 and 75 (or 50 and 69+ a bit of fudge).

I'm also tracking ammo because of our Sig Sauer Mosquito. More than a few sites and YouTube videos say the Mosquito is prone to jamming with cheap ammo. Several claimed the pistol is a piece of junk.

Well, I can confirm that CCI shoots just fine, and that the Mosquito has not shown any major issues with Remington. I have not tried Federal so far.

Bottom Line

We have the log, we have the commitment to shoot, now we just need to start keeping score.

~Tot1

NFL Pro Pick-em Strategy - Wisdom of Crowds

2015-01-20T12:49:00.002-06:00

Yahoo! Pro-Pickem Strategy - Fail?

Click for larger image.

It always pays to evaluate the success (or failure) of your strategies, and base assumptions... but I would love for Yahoo! to some data to support the evaluation.

Are Crowds Smarter than Individuals

My final results for the 2014 Pro-Pickem season were a marked improvement over my standing from last 2013. Overall improvement was from ~2 games missed per week in 2013 (28 games out of first place), to 12 games missed over 17 weeks. That is, Niam Knows! won this year with 186 correct picks, and I only had 174.

Strategy Changes from 2013 to 2014

Previously, I would watch the Pick Distribution and do a gut-check on my perception of the game. For 2014 I also made a couple of simple rules: Always turn in a pick list (in 2012 I missed a week, which doomed my score), and always review the pick list just prior to game time. I didn't make many changes through the year, but a simple trick - watching for injuries to the starting QB - probably saved me 4-5 games. (RGIII and the Redskins hurt that strategy as well).

Something Happened

Business Insider has published an article: Las Vegas Screwed Up - by setting a bad line for the Super Bowl.

... "In the case of the Super Bowl, that didn't happen. About 80% of the bets on the Big Game in the first 24 hours were on the Patriots, according to PreGame.com.

What is even more intriguing about this big swing is that the early betting action is typically done by the more seasoned and often professional gamblers making big bets (AKA "sharps") while Joe Public typically waits until a day or two before the game or even game day.

This means that the usually smarter gamblers felt the opening line with the Seahawks favored was a terrible line and immediately put a ton of money on the Patriots..."

Below is a screen clip from Yahoo Sports Pro-Pickem showing the pick distribution for the Super Bowl as of 1/20. It clearly shows the Patriots as the favorite. So how did Vegas miss? And, was the early money correct, or not? How do the "sharps" adjust for any injuries over the period between Divisional Championships and the Super Bowl? Doesn't uncertainty decrease... as you get closer to game time?

Bottom Line

The Business Insider article indicates that smart money bets early. In Pro-Pickem, the early bets tend to be homers - people picking their home team. The distribution gets more accurate over the season as the wheat is separated from the chaff. As the season wears on the ability to make up ground on the Pick-em leaders gets more difficult as picks become more obvious and upset games are widely missed. In effect, the leader board becomes self-governing as everyone reflects the tendency towards average.

Is the final Distribution (right before game time) accurate? Is the Crowd more accurate than the individual?

Wisdom of Crowds - More Data Please

Yahoo Pro-Pickem could really provide a cool data element called "The Crowd". Simply create a player called "The Crowd" and assign all of the picks from the weekly Distribution to this player. For the tie breakers: take the team picked most often for high and low scores, and the average of the numeric scores. (Or, just put Oakland as Lowest Scorer).

Step 2 -- Create a player for each affinity "Fans of San Francisco", "Fans of Dallas" etc. and rank the average "affinity" score. This would provide proof that specific fans know their football, and other fans are just junior varsity. (We all know who you are - rookies!)

Step 3 -- Find the "tail" you know, the guy that makes the outrageous picks... and is correct! Identify the guy that has the most correct picks against the average.

Somewhere at Yahoo! is a math geek that can work this out.

~Tot1

Pinewood Derby - Rebuilding the Perfect Beast

2015-01-19T12:32:00.001-06:00

Pinewood Derby - Rebuilding the Perfect Beast

Last spring the boy took first place in in the Pinewood Derby for his Troop. This year we needed to build a new car that will be just as competitive as the old car. Here are the previous posts.

2014 Pinewood Derby Results Mea Culpa
2014 Pinewood Derby - The Boy Isn't Going to Win...

Planning - Blue Steel Part Deux

We wanted to use a simple shape - to reduce the amount of time in the shop. The troop was really lucky to have access to a workshop with everything needed to convert a block of wood into a racing machine.

Our plan was to go to the preparation event with the full design in hand, run the block through the band saw, do a bit of drill work to manage weight placement, sand lightly and walk away.

Mistake #1

When transferring the design to the side of the pine block, I rotated the block to get a better angle for tracing a pencil line down the edge. We went to the preparation event, did our cut-out, light sanding, weighed in, then walked out. According to plan.

At home, we were dry-fitting the weights when we discovered that the large weight would be slightly behind the rear axle. This would not be the optimum placement since the car might pop a wheelie at the bottom of the ramp. On further examination, I had reversed the wheelbase when drawing the line for the cut.

OK, so we had to go to the make up session.

Lesson #1

In order to counter-sink our weights, we used a drill press with a bit that the same diameter as a quarter. Three drill holes on the back of the car, a bit of work with a chisel, and we could slide in a second layer of weights. Based on the preliminary weight-in, it looked like two (2) quarters would do the trick. I do want to build a car and call it 50-cent, but the boy doesn't get the joke.

Make Up Session

For the make up session we double (triple, quadruple) checked the layout and the wheel-base. We cut the simple form, and then went back to the drill press. Our first build required some chisel work to get the groove size correct - we wanted to skip that additional work. We reset the bit-depth so that the drill would not penetrate all the way through the vehicle then used a bit just slightly larger than a quarter.

This round was much easier - squaring out the round corners with a chisel, then flattening the bottom of the groove where the tip of the bit counter-sunk into the pine. Finally, we went over to the belt sander and worked out all of the rough spots.

It's amazing how fast you can get all of this done when you know what you are doing.

Non-Make Up Session

Last year we used Krylon primer and metallic blue paint with silver glitter. This year the boy wants to go au-natural - with no paint at all. Pine and lead... nice.

Formal Weight-In and Turn In

Next week is the formal weight in session. We will have to hand-over the car until after the races are complete.

Fingers crossed that we do as well as last year.

~Tot1

How to Use Feedly

2015-01-19T09:09:00.003-06:00

How to use Feedly

RazorSocial just posted a blog "How to Use Feedly for Tracking Blogs". I've been a Feedly fan since the demise of Google Reader, and had a popular post in 2011 which outlined how to use Google Reader to follow Twitter hashtags "Google Reader Tames Twitter Stream" and Facebook pages.

While Google Reader had the flexibility to track Twitter hashtags, and Facebook pages, it is not clear that Feedly has added this functionality.

Feedly Organization

The "organize" features of Feedly do allow quick sorting/grouping of blog topics. This is a snip showing layout in the left-hand margin for my account. I use four major groups to sort the data, and Feedly show the total number of unread articles (237), and the number of unread items in each group. I read 45 blogs via Feedly, and simply don't know of a faster method to collect and organize my list.

Behind the scenes is a drag-and-drop interface for organization. My "A Economists" list is a collection of favorites - which always get first read. The Z-Other Economists still get some of my attention - but time constraints drive priorities.

Click for larger picture.
Drag and Drop interface for sorting/grouping your blogs.

New Feature for Twitter

Feedly did incorporate a new feature into their "Tweet This" functionality. The prior version simply sent the title of the article, a link and a "via Feedly" tag. At the end of 2014 they updated this feature to use hashtags - so "via Feedly" became #Feedly, and, the group name from your organizer is also sent (#xoloandmacro is my group).

If you are judicious in your naming convention, you can Tweet messages and links directly to a specific Twitter hashtag.

Bottom Line:

Feedly provides a great blog consolidation platform - with quick collection, organization and reading.

Setup and organization (and re-organization) is simple

User Interface is the same on my PC, my Android tablet and my Kindle Fire, and functionality is the same across all three

It has decent "push" functionality (to Twitter, to OneNote, etc.) but for pulling data it is not as flexible as the deceased Google Reader.

Feedly Feature Wish List:

Simplify a data pull from Twitter and Facebook and Instagram.

Improve your online Help, or create a user community.

~Tot1

Garmin Vivofit - 400000 Step Update

2015-01-15T10:26:00.000-06:00

Garmin Vivofit 400,000 Step Update

This is an update to my blog: Garmin Vivofit - the First 300,000 Steps.

Early in January the Garmin Vivofit web site started having Sync issues. It appears that the Sync problem has been resolved - data is flowing between my device and the web site. But some of the data is not flowing down to the Reporting tables.

Garmin Error Message

I have not lost any data, but I did take the step to create an Excel spreadsheet to capture my steps.

Here are some of my notes:

12 Minute Bars?
Or, 15 Minute Bars?

The Export Function is limited to rolled up values (Weekly or Monthly). It will dump a simple table into a CSV format.
To get daily values, you have to look back over & day periods, then mouse-over the columns to read the number of steps.
Reports look back from "today". If you review your stats on a Wednesday, the "Week" is Wednesday to Tuesday. Seems like a calendar week (calendar month) would be a better timeframe.
The "Workout Intensity" indicator is odd. From a walking point of view... I have hit 1500+ steps in the (12 minute?) time capture. That seems to be "intense". Not sure what the threshold is, but ~4 MPH for walking is a lot. Again, no instructions to understand this feature. [Update 1/19/15: It appears that 1711 steps is "Intense". Not 1706... 1711.]
Uphill, downhill, flat... no difference. In the end it probably evens out - especially if you are walking loops.
Finally had to take the Vivofit module out of the wrist band at wash it... (60 days!). Gunk accumulation was minor, but it's back to new condition now.

I'm still a big fan... the Vivofit has motivated me to get off my duff and move. I'm still on track for 2.5 million steps by Thanksgiving, 2015.

~Tot1

Garmin Vivofit - First 300000 Steps

2015-01-02T09:56:00.000-06:00

Garmin Vivofit - Review

After two years working at Microsoft my health was pretty poor. Sure, I was really active, but by diet and sleep patterns were a mess. And, to deal with work stress it wasn't unusual for me to grab the chainsaw and garden tools and do several hours of exhausting yard work - just so I could get to sleep.

When we moved back to Texas from Seattle I was fully burned out. Dr. M. told me my blood sugar (HbA1c) and Triglycerides were too high and put me back on diabetes medication for the first time since 2009. I could have saved time and money for the office visit.

For Thanksgiving I purchased a Garmin Vivofit from Amazon (product link) for just under $80. I'll cover the Good, the Bad and the Bottom Line... and endorse the product as a solid, low price, wearable fitness device - for those that walk or jog.

The Good

Dashboard - Drag and Drop modules.
Clean, easy to read, and simple to use.
(Click for larger image).

The website is very simple to use. Menus are on the left, graphics on the right, and click-down for more information.
The band display is very easy to read, even without glasses, as long as you have some light.
Not having to charge it daily, or weekly, is a huge win. Sync is completed via a wireless mini-USB device and takes less than 30 seconds. I sync every 2-3 days, but understand that it can hold several days of data.
It's waterproof - and I have tested with showers, swimming and the hot tub. In fact, the only time I took it off was when I was cleaning the turkey.
The Red Bar (no activity) feature is very motivating.
The reporting feature is easy to understand.

The Reports Section makes it easy to review your history.

For those that need encouragement -
Badges are easy to get at first, then they require more effort

The Sleep Tracker is nice, and easily editable -- in case you
forget to set Sleep Mode or to turn off Sleep Mode in the morning.

The Bad

There is very little documentation (even online) to help understand how the device works - the underlying logic that is. YouTube videos for the Vivofit are mostly marketing in nature.
The Sleep Tracker shows how much movement you have during the night - on a scale from Low to High, but does not offer any measure to relate to the scale. Is tossing-turning considered "low" and a walk to the bathroom "high"? It's just not clear.
Some chores don't register as activity. Doing the dishes, folding laundry... if you are not moving from place to place, you don't get points. On the other hand, vacuuming and raking the yard seem to over-score.
The Personalized Daily Goals (random step targets) are OK, for variety, but the Vivofit does not recognize the days of the week. My Monday calendar is typically booked with conference calls. So I have missed my Monday goal several times. My Thursday calendar is light, so I'm OK with a few more steps.
There is not really a good method to set a monthly (or annual) target for steps. Again, I suspect Garmin sees daily activity as key to success, but I work on longer and larger goals. My 2.5 million step goal for 2015 is not easy to track on the Vivofit.

The Bottom Line

The Garmin Vivofit has helped me get out of the house and walk. It provides (hourly) encouragement to meet daily goals, does a good job recording activity, and provides very real feedback on performance. It is very low hassle - no recharging, no removal to sync, no removal to take a shower.

My first 300,000 steps were accomplished with just a bit of nagging... which is exactly what I need.

~Tot1

P.S. The Garmin Vivofit also allows manual entry of your weight.
I lost (LOST!) five pounds between Thanksgiving and New Years Day. #winning.

Stumped by STEM

2014-12-05T10:24:00.000-06:00

MSR Wisperlite and STEM

Nothing is more humbling than trying to create a STEM lesson plan for 11 year old boys. My History degree reflects my appetite for consuming information, making logical connections, presenting a hypothesis followed by supporting arguments. So building a STEM lesson into a process is fine. But some of the science still escapes me.

My Audience has the Attention Span of an 11 Year Old

My son is part of Troop 404. I want to be a good Dad, and provide some input to their scouting skills with the ulterior motive of forcing a bit of STEM into the process. We covered the use of Cotton Balls and Vaseline as tinder to start a fire. 11 year-olds are fascinated by fire.

State Changes: Solid, Liquid, Gas

We never really reached deep into the science of the flint and steel - a standard tool for scouts. Some metals burn (oxidize) at room temperature. Scrapping minute balls of metal from the flint exposes more of their surface area to oxygen - which causes them to burn. That's the trick.

We did start the discussion of the state change of Vaseline from solid, to liquid to gas as it was wicked by the cotton then burned. But you know... 11 years old.

Science: Change of State, Wicking, Oxidation,
Technology: Various tools to create fire/sparks
Engineering: A one-handed steel and flint (engineering simplicity)
Math: How to calculate the optimum amount of Vaseline (fuel) for a cotton ball (wicking framework) for maximum burn time.

From Flaming Cotton Balls to the Wisperlite Stove

Mountain Safety Research (MSR) - Cascade Designs

MSR Wisperlite Stove (at REI)

How to start a Wisperlite (YouTube video 33 seconds)

The Wisperlite stove has not changed much in 30 years. I can say this definitively because I own the 30 year old version. These stoves consume, burn, various types of liquid fuel. But something else is happening as the liquid fuel moves from the canister, through the stove and into the burner.

In the video above - did you notice that the correct way to start this stove is to set it on fire? A few drops of fuel in the lower cup, a source of fire, ignites a big yellow flame, then it burns down into an intense blue flame that sounds like a miniature jet engine. It's not like lighting your stove, or a BBQ grill.

You Can't Skip Steps to Get to the Jet Engine.

Something Else is Happening

I sent an email to MSR to ask if they have a simple description of the process. Is it a wicking effect like the candle example above, or a venturi effect, or flash evaporation? Or, is it some combination of these processes?

Proof that Math is Hard.

You have seen flash evaporation...
but does this explain the Wisperlite?

Stumped

I hope MSR will reply, so I can build out:

Purpose and Materials

Course Goals / Instruction Mode

Student Goals

Syllabus

Content / Arranged

Supplemental Materials / Activities

~Tot1
Next up: Tent Technology, Thermarest, Scope Reticles.

The graphics above are linked to their original sources on the web.

Cotton Balls Vaseline and Fed Liquidity

2014-11-13T09:42:00.000-06:00

Cotton Balls, Vaseline, and Fed Liquidity

I'm from the Jack Daniel's school of economics. That is, give me a couple shots of Jack and I'll tell you my thoughts about the economy. The key to my thought process is obtuse linking of examples (stay with me here).

Cotton Balls as Tinder

We hosted a cub scout meeting a couple weekends ago, and as host I decided to have a show and tell session to demonstrate the use of flint and steel and cotton balls as tinder to start a fire.

Adding Vaseline (a petroleum product) to the cotton ball creates a long lasting tinder. It is cheap, light-weight, water-resistant and lasts a long time. The cotton acts like a wick for the Vaseline, holding the flame while allowing the Vaseline to change from solid, to liquid to vapor, then burn. (Hey, that's all you get -- I'm an Jack Daniel's Economist. If you what physics, come back at closing time).

Here are links to the starters and to a couple videos showing how this all works.

Sample video showing the Cotton + Vaseline method

Here is how Candles actually work.

Gerber 31-000699 Bear Grylls Survival Series Fire Starter

UST Blastmatch Fire starter

Conducting basic research in the internet is always a unique journey of discovery. While watching video number 4300 or so, an interesting question came up:

What is the optimum about of Vaseline to add to a cotton ball?

The test:

Take a plain 100% cotton ball and light it (record the burn time).

Add increasing amounts of Vaseline to the cotton ball and record the burn time.
(Change the ratio of tinder/fuel from 0% to ~99%).

Determine optimum amount of Vaseline to add to get the longest burn time.

Internet video #4300 - Revelation

Can you light 100% pure Vaseline? No, not with a flint and steel, not with a match, not with a cigarette lighter... it just melts.

Economic Link - Cotton Balls, Vaseline, and Fed Liquidity

Where is all of the Fed Liquidity?

Quantitative Easing, billions and billions and trillions of dollars, has only generated a couple percent GDP growth. The entire point of QE was to provide liquidity - to support the balance sheets of the banks and stimulate economic growth. So what happened?

Super-saturated cotton balls (economic capability) and Vaseline (pent up liquidity).

In our previous experiment we showed that a cotton ball loaded with Vaseline will burn longer than a clean cotton ball. Too much Vaseline and it will not burn at all. It has to be a lot too much, but you can try it yourself.

Maybe the Fed has created a situation where they have provided so much liquidity (Vaseline) that the economy (cotton ball) simply can't function.

~Tot1
PhD, Jack Daniel's School of Economic Stuff.

2014 BMW 328i 1500 Mile Review

2014-11-09T13:46:00.002-06:00

Finally Named the New BMW 328i.

Elle as in Elle Driver from Kill Bill.

The 2011 xDrive was Alex Forrest - a tempting, slightly wild seductress. Catherine Tramell (Basic Instinct) and Matilda Ratched (One Flew Over the Cockoo's Nest) were high on the list.

We'll get to the reason for our selection a bit later.

Click for larger image.

2014 BMW 328i 1500 Mile Review

The Good

The fuel economy is phenomenal - up from Alex's 30 months average of 20.6 to nearly 26 mpg. On Friday we did a loop from Round Rock to Anderson (College Station) and back -- over 30 mpg. Acceleration is solid, turns are a bit soft, but well controlled, and braking is excellent. She pulls with gusto from the line, and a hard press on the accelerator will always deliver a bit more. I was worried about all of the shifting (horrific in Eco mode, tolerable in Comfort mode), but in Sport mode, Elle was in the right gear most of the time.

The Bad

The only way to have fun is to drive in Sport mode or Manual, and to drive well over the speed limit. Not that I haven't tried, but Elle performs under normal conditions without complaint. It's almost tragic - her good manners (cool professionalism) belie her skill.

The Ugly

The double-tap to turn off the accessories does not work well. ECO-mode makes politicians happy, but I can't imaging anyone else liking this feature. The Auto-Stop Start (or AS/S) is rough on the restart.

The Bottom Line

The 2014 BMW 328i is Elle, cold, efficient, professional. She is not the super hot, sultry Catherine, or the super-controlling Nurse Ratched. Deep down inside you know she is trouble.

“It's the first villain [Elle Driver] that I've played in a movie that has absolutely no vulnerability and no innocence, nothing whatsoever that is like-able about her, other than she's so bad. All the other Deadly Vipers have some empathetic quality: O-Ren Ishii has this horrible past, [Vernita Green] just wants to be a mom, the Bride has been abused, but my character is just bad all the way through, there's nothing to like about her, and you're going to hate her so much.”
–Daryl Hannah (on Elle Driver) from the Kill Bill Wiki.

The first road trip: Hwy 79, 6, 30, 21, 77, 112 - none of them posed the slightest challenge. Next weekend, a run to Stephenville (183, 281, maybe back on 36).

I just know that one day I'm going to do something, and Elle is going to pluck out my eye.

[Update 11/11]: We took an unexpected run to Cabela's - from Round Rock to Buda via Toll 130. The toll road has a speed limit of 80, so I anticipated some exciting driving. Well, not so much. I would actually slow down behind a truck, down to 65-70 MPH, then pass them. But, it was decidedly effortless (sigh). Elle was loafing along, just over 2000 RPM. I finally turned on the cruise control - which is a HUGE improvement over the '11 version.

~Tot1

2014 BMW 328i First 500 Miles

2014-10-17T09:10:00.000-05:00

2014 BMW 328i First 500 Miles

The Good

My previous BMW 328ix (Alex) averaged just under 21 MPG over 27,000 miles. Not bad for an xDrive used for a boring commute from Woodinville, WA to Redmond, WA. Alex didn't get a lot of freeway miles, so performance was pretty solid.

The new 2014 BMW 328 has averaged out at 24.5 MPG. I have been hot-rodding a bit, and Texas roads speeds are much higher (even in town). Gas prices in Round Rock (Austin, TX) have been under $3.00 for awhile and this morning they dropped below $2.70/gal for regular. The 17% increase in fuel economy is pretty nice.

Review: The First 100 Miles
Review: 2011 328i xDrive aka Alex

Driving in Sport Mode is amazing.

We took a short freeway run on IH-35 and the ride was scary. Scary, in that the BMW felt like it was doing 45... when we were (a bit) north of 70 MPH.

One of Alex's attributes was that she was not much fun to drive at 25 MPG, especially in parking lots and in crowded neighborhoods. At freeway speeds she was great, and at Texas Toll Road speeds (85 MPH) she was a joy to drive. Once the new plates arrive we're going to drive to San Antonio, and see if the new car can fly.

The Bad

ECO-Mode is still icky, although it is growing on me. Now that morning and evening temperatures have fallen, the reduced air-conditioning in ECO-Mode is more tolerable. Acceleration is non-existent, gear shifts are frequent, and the ride is econo-car. But, picking up the kids at school and driving through the neighborhood doesn't require more than a Corolla, and ECO-Mode effectively renders the 328i into a Corolla.

The Ugly AS/S

Texas uses flashing yellow lights to allow left turns. Roll out, pick your spot, accelerate, and you're on your way. The Auto-Start/Stop (AS/S) complicates this process alot. In addition to the calculation of on-coming car speed, and my ability to move through the turn, I now have to factor in AS/S. I've already worked on strategies to defeat it (shift to Sport mode, never come to a complete stop, lift the foot slightly off the brake). AS/S is very aggressive in ECO-Mode, so the calculation of Corolla like acceleration needs to be added to the momentary AS/S restart.

The Bottom Line

I denied the idea that the new Turbo-4 couldn't compete with the inline-6. I was angry that BMW would tinker with the engines, suspension, and drive characteristics that made Alex such a great ride. I struggled with keeping Alex... for days, trying to find a way to justify the purchase of an all-wheel drive 20MPG sedan in Texas.

[Wikipedia Article]: Kübler-Ross model, or the five stages of grief, is a series of emotional stages experienced when faced with impending death or death of someone. The five stages are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

I'm finally coming out of depression, and into a reluctant acceptance that the new BMW (still unnamed) is a very different car, and is a good car.

Not a great car, yet... but you never forget your first.

Tot1

P.S. Elle Driver, from Kill Bill is currently at the top of the list, although the lobotomizing Matilda Ratched, RN is still in the hunt (Maybe Elle in Sport mode and Matilda in Eco-Mode)?

2014 BMW 328i First 100 Miles

2014-10-01T16:42:00.002-05:00

The First 100 Miles

Alex, my 2011 328i xDrive, the last of the straight-six models, went off lease last week (farewell review). I replaced her with a brand new 2014 328i, which is a very different driving experience. I drove Alex about 27750 miles which equates to ~1500 hours of time in motion. Most of the driving was in Woodinville and Redmond, WA at 30-45 miles per hour with very limited freeway time.

I moved from WA to Round Rock, TX (just north of Austin) and found much better driving opportunities. Surface streets often run up to 60 MPH and the Toll Roads top out at 85. Alex didn't get many miles in TX, but they sure were fun.

Now that I have had time to fiddle with the seat adjustments and the different driving modes, here are my first impressions of my new 2014 BMW 328i, RWD.

I'm not convinced this one is "The Ultimate Driving Machine".

The Good

Wow, the engine is responsive and actually pulls really well. Many reviews point to Turbo-lag, but pushing Alex from 1500 RPM to 4000 RPM also took some time. The steering is light and easy, and does firm up based on the driving mode. In Sport or Sport manual mode this is a great ride.

I had a loaner 328i (fully loaded) for a couple days in August. The run-flat tires and suspension setup were harsh, jarring, pugilistic. This new car doesn't seem to have the same setup. The ride is smooth, bumps are minimized, and the road is still very tangible. 95% of my 27750 miles were casual commute miles, not high-speed, racetrack oriented.

I did not get any bling on this car. None. No lines, no exterior colors, no interior package, no Dynamic Handling, Cold Weather, Driver Assistance, Technology, or Premium package, no options or accessories. The only item listed on the window sticker was the 8-speed Steptronic. So, my car was a steal, a rock bottom priced BMW leading to a great lease.

The Bad

8-Speeds means plenty of gear changes. In Comfort mode 4-5 gear changes take place driving in the neighborhood at speeds around 30 MPH. A good deal of work is going on between the engine, the computer, and and the transmission to get good mileage. Sport mode fixes this, but it seems like the jumps from Eco to Comfort to Sport are a bit wide.

In Eco Mode I kept checking the floor to see if it was going to open so I could give her a push by going full retro Fred Flintstone. Sorry, I know the government is involved, and MPG figures must be met, but I suspect that ECO mode will be lightly used by all BMW drivers. Those frequent gear changes in Comfort evolve from noticeable to annoying in ECO where 2000 RPM is the shift point. I'll need a lot of convincing to see ECO as a feature.

The Auto-Start/Stop (can I call it the ASS Function?) is also a bit of a work-in-progress. After measuring 20 something variables, including the price of tea in China, the AS/S function will decide whether to turn the engine off when you reach a full (and complete) stop. Don't try to out-guess the system, it knows what's best for you.

Managing the interior temp to save gas, presents a bit of a problem. Sitting in the Texas sun (even in October) for a couple minutes will raise the interior temp just enough to re-start the engine. Defogging the windows (front or back) is also a hurdle for the AS/S. Essentially, the car is saying "I'm going to save a sip of gas and make you hot... deal with it". In Woodinville, WA., not an issue... in Round Rock, TX., fail.

Yes, yes, yes, you can push a button to kill the feature, and heck, I have already learned how much relief to give the brake to get to a restart, but like the ECO mode, I'm not convinced that this is really useful.

You know those Yellow-light must yield left-hand turn lanes? Confidence takes a hit when you are searching for a hole to jump through, and the AS/S decides to cut-off the engine.

"Look Ma, I'm sitting in the middle of an intersection with my engine cut-off!"

This is a pretty direct user experience, and a pretty poor experience.

The Ugly

The "Park" mode is a bit odd. The engine goes into "Ready" status, just like in AS/S. And the iDrive and accessory plugs remain active. Had the weird experience of having the car restart while sitting in the parking lot at CVS. My foot was on the brake, so the behavior was not "wrong" it was just unexpected. My Garmin is plugged into the 12-volt power receptacle and doesn't seem to turn off at all. In Alex, you turn the car off and the accessories go off as well.

The iDrive Multimedia functionality is also a bit off. I plugged in my USB drive with 617 songs, scrolled through the menu options to set to Random... and off I went. The next time the car started it started at song #1/617. Pushing the right arrow on the stereo would send it to a new random song. Park (for some unknown period of time) and it's back to song #1 again. Alex would keep remember the track, even if the USB drive was removed and later replaced.

The delivery specialist told me that the first time I linked my phone to the 328i, it would download my address book. My phone is both work and personal, with 707 contact cards (I checked in Outlook). I am actually scared to sync the Bluetooth for fear of the mess. I just need eight (8) entries, one for each storage location on the dash, but there is just no simple way to get there.

The Bottom Line

The new 328i is much more enjoyable for my standard driving experience, smoother, quicker, better mileage (Alex reported 20.5 MPG combined after 30 months of driving). Purists, those that think fast is the only answer, will probably not be happy. People that want options will have to juggle the various packages, lines, and accessories to find a suitable combination -- at an eye-popping price. Driving modes, AS/S, and other minor annoyances will probably get worked out over time.

My lease expires in 36 months... which gives BMW time to figure it out.

~Tot1

Macrotots

BMW 328i 20,000 Mile Report

BMW 328i - 20,000 Miles of Very Nice

Old Posts:

The Good

The Bad

The Ugly

Bottom Line

XMAS 2015

Merry Christmas from Round Rock

Garmin Vivofit 2M Steps and Battery Change

Garmin Vivofit Review at 2,000,000+ Steps

Previous Posts:

Good

Bad

Ugly

The Bottom Line

BMW 328i 12000 Mile Review

BMW 328i - 12,000 Miles of Very Nice

Old Posts:

The Good

The Bad

The Ugly

Bottom Line

2014 BMW 328i - 10000 Mile Review

2014 BMW 328i - 10000 Mile Review

The Good

2014 BMW 328i - previous posts:

The Bad

The Ugly

Bottom Line

Consensus Fail

Quakers, Occupy Wall Street, and Consensus

Consensus Fail

My Two Cents

Theory and Practice - Reality Gets in the Way

"Great decisions, great ideas, great innovation, always come from a mob." ~Ever, Noone

A New Prescription

Bottom Line - Bitter Pill

CrowdFire

The Crowdfire App (Formerly JustUnfollow)

Opening the Kimono - My Twitter Stats

JustUnfollow

Spring Cleaning Process

Twitter Fans on Crowdfire

Bottom Line:

Sig Sauer Mosquito - Sour Taste

Sig Sauer Mosquito - Sour Taste

Problem: Ammunition - Reliability and Availability

Range Experience

Solution

Options

Bottom Line

Wisdom of Crowds - NCAA March Madness Version

March Madness and the Wisdom of Crowds

Did the Crowd get March Madness right?

Cow-ontology, Bracketology and The Wisdom of Crowds

Why is Bracketology Important?

Bracket Busting Metrics:

If the Crowd is so Wise, Why can't the Crowd win?

More Data Please

Bottom Line:

Rant Do Us a Favor and Don't

Rant - Do Us a favor and Don't

Disclaimers First

Common Courtesy and Uncommon Stupidity

Magical Poop Reclamation

So What is the Rant?

Why go half-ass on doing the right thing?

Garmin Vivofit 1000000 Steps

Garmin Vivofit 1,000,000 Steps

How to walk 1,000,000 Steps in Less than 6 months - Lessons Learned

The Peaks:

The Valleys:

Daily Glucose Scores - The Proof is in the Score

Bottom Line

Books, Bookstores, and Economics

Books, Bookstores and Economics

San Francisco Politicians Killed a Bookstore

Realtor Newsletter Suggestions

Cow-ontology, Bracketology and
The Wisdom of Crowds