Major Market Movements

New Website has Launched!

2013-09-10T14:12:00.000-07:00

The new Major Market Movements fully featured website, including blog, forum and chart school is up and running!

You can find it here: www.MajorMarketMovements.com

I want to thank all my subscribers and supporters over the years. It has been your interest in charting and technical analysis of markets that have spurred me on to create a place for traders to come together to focus on the technical methods that are so often responsible for 'Major Market Moves'.

This BlogSpot site will still be left open as an archive, but no new content will be generated on this site. All new blog posts will be posted at the new website under the 'Blog' tab. I will also be posting more frequently, not just on the weekends.

All the best to you and thanks again,
Quad G

MMM is Moving

2013-09-08T08:36:00.000-07:00

My Faithful Audience,

My new website is currently under construction, being tested, and very close to launch! Therefore the Weekend Update will be postponed, if all goes well the next blog update will be at the new site.

I will keep you posted here about the transition, which may come inside the next few days.

All the best,
Quad G

...

MMM Weekend Update 9-1-13

2013-09-01T12:02:00.001-07:00

Gold - The impulsive moves higher over the past few weeks have certainly confirmed that the aforementioned 21-22month cycle is certainly logging in a significant bottom similar to significant tops in the past. The next iteration comes in the spring of 2015 (March/April). The MT trend moving into that cycle will determine if it will be a cycle top or bottom. I suspect that if the price stays under the primary down trend-line above (black) in the coming weeks, the next cycle will likely be a low.

The price has fallen back this past week after bumping into the previous base channel. This base channel could become a median channel. We've already seen the acceleration channel down into an extreme under-throw. The current move up could be an extreme over-throw taking place before the trend settles back down into the median at a later time. A premature break-down below (red) of the current up channel (blue) would disrupt this scenario.

The Monthly close last Friday is uncannily familiar to the monthly candlestick pattern that developed back during the 2008 bottom. If the same type of pattern were to repeat, this September should see a higher-low (green V) and then close the month higher than August.

The last weeks candle closed bearish, printing an inverted hammer candle. This suggests that follow-through to the downside is expected this week. Can hammer candles be breached? Sure they can, and when they do they can often produce an impulsive shot in the corresponding direction.

The New Moon cycle is also coming into play this week, opening up a turn window between the close on Sept 4th to the close on Sept 9th. If the ST trend remains down into this turn date window the chances are likely that a bottom will form. The opposite is also true, if the ST trend is up into that turn window it could form a top. So particular attention needs to be payed to the attitude of the trend moving into this New Moon cycle. The last two New Moon cycles nailed a bottom, could we have a three-peat?

A daily inverted hammer candle on August 28th alert my subscribers and I to the potential of a profit taking sell-off in the making. This was a good ST spec signal to take profit, lightening up on previous buys.

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GDX - Miners are very close to finishing some unfinished business this week, back-testing the previous break-out of a neckline (orange) and back filling a gap left behind. If Bulls want more of this market this would be the place to see them buy it up. The 40ish line of the Daily RSI(14) is often support when the market is MT bullish. A resulting move higher would aim for initial targets of 35 and 40, possibly much higher after that. If any of these supports are broken, then it would be a sign that bulls are AWOL.

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SPX - The S&P 500 is still in an impulsive trend to the downside. The 200DMA and an upward sloping trend-line (orange) become potential targets. I would also expect to see 30 or lower visited on the RSI (14). These targets look likely to be hit this month with a subsequent rise thereafter. A gap down was left behind, this could be filled later in September or October.

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GBP/USD - Produced a textbook ending diagonal just below key resistance, producing a sizable and profitable reversal. Subscribers got the warning ahead of time.

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If you are a trader interested in learning and using useful technical tools, sign up for the MMM subscription service where I provide daily email updates on various markets.
Sigh up here:
http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

Good Hunting,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 8-25-13

2013-08-25T11:25:00.002-07:00

Gold - Several weeks ago in June I posted this LT chart with a Mega-Bear scenario looking for an end to wave (C) orange in the 1150 to 1280 zone. With price challenging the 1400, it looks like wave (C) is finished and now the price is working up into wave (X) orange toward the very key 'Thick Black Line', which is currently above at about 1691ish and falling. If this is a wave (X) advance it should be a sharp 3 wave correction upward.

Now some of you have been wondering if there is a Mega-Bull best case scenario. Of course there is, but the 'Thick Black Line' will need to be defeated first as the green arrow depicts. Here is the Best Case scenario that I can fathom once the TBL is trounced: A 5 wave impulsive advance to 1800+ for wave {1} will need to be realized. Followed by a couple sharp, but relatively small wave 2 corrections. Then comes the point of recognition, probably in the 2500 to 3500 zone, the price would just go steadily upward day after day, 1-3% at a time, with no looking back.

Here is what the wave structure looks like in log scale, you'll notice that the current correction is either a bullish under-throw or just the start of a more drawn out correction. Until the TBL is defeated I favor further correction (red projection)at this time, eventually dropping down to the previous wave 3-4 zone and possibly the LT 61.8% fibo retrace (889ish):

I do not recommend that you base ANY long term investing decisions base on these long term scenarios. If you are a long term investor in precious metals the best plan is to continue averaging in purchases over time. Betting the farm on a EW projection is typically not the best course of action. MT and ST paper trading is different, you have greater flexibility and can maneuver an account with greater dexterity capitalizing on swings up and down with the advantage of using stops. You can't place a stop-loss on a 1oz American Gold Eagle in your hand, though you can employ hedging using a paper trading account.

Currently PoG is coming up to test several lines of potential resistance:

Gold is still inside its base channel. This means the the current 3 legged advance up from 1180.20 could be just a corrective wave. What would set this upward wave structure apart as an impulsive rise would be to have the price move above its base channel and form a new acceleration channel (orange), no doubt generating a point of recognition. The Key MT support level at this time is 1352ish.

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Silver - Is much further ahead than gold, having already broken its base channel (blue), headlong up into its acceleration channel (orange):

Silver is also about to knock on a MT fibo retrace level of 38.2% (24.77ish), as well as test some other resistive trend lines which form a resistance zone. This would be the place to watch for daily topping candles such as an inverted hammer, OKR or bearish Harami. Further ascent this week may also give the New York trading hours another crack at the 24.59 to 25.91 Dead zone, which has not traded in the NY time frame. Keep in mind that this rapid climb has left behind a NY Dead zone below at 20.50ish to 20.86. The market often despises a vacuum.

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If your paper trading could use a technical boost, consider signing up for the Major Market Movement subscription service where you will receive my daily updates that cover multiple technical modes including the QG3 trend following indicator, Elliot Wave, candlesticks, trend-lines and patterns. Also, I will soon be launching (early September) a new fully featured website with chart libraries, forum and frequent blog updates.

Sign up here:
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Good Hunting,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 8-18-13

2013-08-18T12:30:00.001-07:00

Gold - Last week I depicted the price of Gold coming up to challenge a neck-line of a bullish inverted Head and Shoulder pattern and a potential resistance zone above:

This week's update shows the breach of the neckline (blue) with follow-through up to the resistance zone. In the days ahead we could see the price wrestle with this zone as well as challenge the MT 38.2% fibo retrace level at 1415ish.

The Moon cycle has nailed a few tops and bottoms recently. Next week, there is another full moon on Aug 20th providing a turn date window between the close on Aug 19th to the close on Aug 22nd. The last full moon helped cap a top, this iteration may be no different. If a top is realized next week, another bottom may come into play the next new moon on Sept 5th.

The last New Moon turn date window (Aug 5th to Aug 8th) kept me on watch for potential bottoming action, found some:

The previous weekly bullish hammer candle saw some substantial follow-through last week:

I suspect that gold could hit some resistance this week, perhaps digesting some of the previous gains before moving higher while remaining above key ST support levels.

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Silver - Cut right through a resistance zone like a hot knife through butter. Though this bullish stampede has been amazing, it has been seen before. In 2008 a 2 week 34+% rise was seen, no doubt churning the bullish juices. However, Silver and most other asset classes were caught up in the post Lehman deflationary romp with the ensuing stock market collapse after Sept 15th, 2008.

I'm not interested in throwing a wet blanket on the current euphoria, but I find that it's good practice to temper such enthusiasm with some sober judgement.

Silver bulls have also left a 'mess behind', taking off with out giving the NY market a chance at the 20.51 to 20.86 level. That could be hit later.

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NUGT - Has played very well lately, riding up (about 100% return in just a few weeks) as expected from the long term support channel and bottom in the HUI gold miner index (currently 271ish):

Update:

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Stock Market - Has been acting 'toppy' for a couple weeks now. Here is some previous analysis that pointed out that the current run up was not likely going to last with out a meaningful correction.

From July 21st:

From July 14th:

The stock market action the last several days was showing that a top was increasingly likely:

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If you are a trader interested in technical pattern recognition for managing trades, consider subscribing to my daily email service here:
http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

Good Hunting this week,
Quad G

MMM Weekend update 8-11-13

2013-08-11T14:14:00.000-07:00

Gold - The New Moon turn date window appears to be a success with a strong bounce up. The dip was stingy however, only giving a low of 1272ish before reversing. Last week's bounce produces a swing low and key support for any more upside at 1272ish.

Gold has completed a break-out and back-test and is now ready to roam higher while above 1272ish:

There is a skewed neckline of a bullish iHnS pattern, which could project a target up to 1524ish if a neckline breach occurs this week.

However, any upside advance may have to tangle with a series of resistances above:

The EW impulse counts may look something like this in the days ahead:

If the resistance zone above is going to be respected, then a corrective EW count is more likely, as more sideways base forming plays out:

In a nutshell, there is more upside to be had in this market in the days ahead while the price remains above 1272. A violation of that level would suggest this market is still in a sideways/down corrective phase.

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Silver - So far performing much more bullish than gold. The New Moon turn date window and a 61.8% fibo level at 19.12 provides the impetus for last week's tear to the upside after roundly defeating a MT trend-line resistance above:

I would not be surprised to see last week's The Break-Out (BO) receiving a Back-Test (BT) this week or next, the sooner the better.

Any upside run will likely find some hurdles above between 21.40isn and 23ish:

An update of my silver MT count suggests that there is still more sideways irregular flat wave (4) correction to take place before a final 5th wave decent. This bearish count would be in jeopardy with an incursion above 23.30ish.

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GDX (PM mining ETF) - Is also looking bullish going into next week. Last week's low partially filled a previous gap before heading higher with another volume break-out:

GDX also sports a bullish iHnS pattern, if the neckline is breached next week, the price projection points to 35ish in the ST:

The week ended with a bullish hammer candle printed. This sets key support at 23.89:

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Crude (WTI) - The CoT (commitment of traders)shows great sums of long side volume. This will certainly weigh on any further price increases. However, the near term rise has yet to see any signs of distribution like other past rallies have. This would suggest more upside is possible in the ST.

MT EW count, suggests a triangle/thrust is in the works:

ST EW count points to a 5th wave rise off a sharp 4th wave back-test, 102.21 is now key support:

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USD - The USDollar ended last week at a critical MT trend-line support as a 4th test. The Rule of 4 (Ro4) suggests that anytime a support or resistance is tested a 4th time it has a greater probability of being broken. If true, for USD, a significant top could be in place with a MT downside move to be realized.

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If you are interested in subscribing to my daily email market updates you can do so here:
http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

Quad G

MMM Weekend update 8-4-13

2013-08-04T12:47:00.000-07:00

Gold - The Fibo/Lunar turn date window that I have outlined in previous weeks, which spanned July 17th to July 23rd saw a rise up into that window. Recent downward action has revealed a top being placed in that turn date window. The resulting move down is now heading into a New Moon turn window this week that spans the close on Aug 5th to the close on Aug 8th.

Fibo/lunar turn date windows and their results:

Here is the Previous ST chart showing the lunar turn date progression so far:

This is a ST EW update:

The 38.2% fibo retrace level at 1283 was key support for last week:

My subscribers were keyed in on this important 38.2% fibo level as well outlining the previous congestion support zone which was nailed just before the bounce last Friday, which provided a nice $50+ ST pay day on a short play:

In a nutshell - While Gold is below 1328.40 on an intra-day basis, the ST bias is still down for the next few days. The downside target range is 1271ish to 1240ish. 1240ish is also a key spot for percentage pickers, as a customary bullish pullback of 8% would be realized at 1239ish and a 5% risk off the bottom (1180.20) points to 1239ish. If 1240ish is broken as support, then further downside momentum could be fostered, eventually leading gold down to test 1180 and lower. However, an intra-day breach and daily close above 1326.19 should provide the follow-through necessary to allow a jump up test key resistance at 1347 and eventually break-out into a wave {iii} advance to the upside. Many downward trends into August have seen significant bottoms born in this key seasonal time frame.

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Silver - Based on recent action, it looks to me that Silver is also prepping to confirm a bottom or make one more final low. Either way, the action looks MT bullish with any dips or lower-low buys likely being rewarded into the rest of the year.

A MT trend-line that has posed resistance for many weeks now has had it's first intra-day breach on Friday. This action weakens that trend-line as resistance. A daily close above that trend-line this week would trump it all together. No doubt many shorts that have depended on that line for guidance may cover their positions with a solid breach.

Friday's intra-day low could have tested a neckline of a bearish HnS pattern. If this neckline is broken next week, the projected initial target is 17.86ish. A breach of the top of the Head would have the opposite effect, Possibly spurring on a rise toward 21.96ish for starters.

In my opinion another sell-off to sub 18 would be welcome. As I look at the LT picture I see the MT downward trend coming to rest inside a LT congestion zone between 16 and 19.80, the center of which is about 17.90. This is prime territory for a recovery bounce up to back-test (BT) the previous break-down (BD) at 26 in the weeks and months ahead.

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USD - The USDollar long term count is finally getting an update.

Here is the old count from December 2010:

Wave {C} could be cooked as the 27-28 monthly cycle comes to a close. This could lead (at a minimum) to wave {D} down to test at LT trend-line below (currently at 74ish and rising). However, a breach of the foremost upper trend-line (currently above at 86ish and falling) could create a Rule of 4 break-out run to the upside, targeting 93 to 100 initially.

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Good Hunting this week, could be very exciting,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 7-28-13

2013-07-28T14:10:00.000-07:00

Gold - The previous MT EW count that suggested the current rise off of 1180.20 may have been a sharp wave (iv) green advance has been killed with a wave 1/4 violation above key resistance of 1337.94+ which is the price territory of wave (i). This changes the EW count in favor of some other more bullish counts. There is still another bearish EW count that could account for a dive to below 1180.20, but the price would need to sink below 1240ish before that probability increased.

Here is an EW ST update:
The primary count suggests that the Full-moon top will hold and a 3 wave pull-back toward the next new moon could be seen over the next several trading days. The alternative (:colon) is far more bullish, but has some hurdles to jump over before coming into favor.

An iHnS pattern, highly 'skewed,' measured for a rough top fairly well. If the top holds, the Break-out of the neckline and even the neckline itself could get a back-test soon.

The New York market is the top dog of all the markets around the world. Seldom does a price move extend beyond NYs attention for very long. I typically gauge the NY market to be between the hours of 8am to 5pm EST. This is the span of time that the NY marketeers holds their chance to influence the gold market for the daily session. When the price moves through territory that NY has not had a chance to weigh in on, the tendency is for the market to eventually correct back into that price territory that I dub the NY 'dead space' during the NY time frame. NY doesn't like to be kept 'out of the loop'. So when you see an over night move run into new price territory, either up or down, know that the probabilities favor a return to that price territory later on during the NY hours.

Here is an example:

As you can see the over-night market made a big splash one day, leaving a void or Dead Zone that eventually was filled during NY hours. It looks as though NY has been comfortable with its new range now for a few days.

I recently spotted for my subscribers a ST top in Gold's price at 1347ish after observing a 4hr time scale 'hairy top':

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Silver - Not looking as hot as gold or GDX, leaving the whole PM complex in a quandary going into next week. The weekly closed as a bearish inverted hammer candle, setting key resistance at 20.60:

Weekly candles can often be responsible for moves that last at least a couple weeks, this would suggest that further selling is likely while below 20.60. If 20.60 is breached then another short squeeze could be realized.

The Silver EW count has a bullish and bearish option, both with their own unique set of qualifiers.

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GDX - The miners have produced a Rule of 4 (Ro4) breach to the upside, with price currently riding above the break-out line. The oscillators RSI and MACD have also moved above some key levels. The MACD has moved above its zero line for the first time in months. And the RSI has moved above its 60 line. This all suggests that this market is in recovery. Even if this market was to fall again to a lower-low, I see it as another gift of a buying opportunity for the next MT bull run.

For now, in the ST, GDX is tangling with the resistance posed by the previous congestion zone.

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AUD/USD - Has a full count to the downside and is working on rolling out into a recovery:

The price has also performed a Break-out and Back-test, this market is poised to move upward while above .9128

The Long term chart shows that price has come down to back-test an old break-out line inside a previous congestion support zone:

My QG3 trading method has produced some excellent results in this market since I took on the Aussie back in March. So far there has been about 1135 ticks of profit that have been locked in. One contract with an initial margin of $2,013 would have profited about $11,350 in just a few months (minus roll-over and broker fees).

Much of which was due to the QG3 signaling subscribers to get in on the short side of this 'major market movement', keeping them in for most of the way down:

The QG3 trading method has now signaled to get prepared for the possibly of a long side advance.

If you are a trader and would like to receive my daily market updates, you may sign up here:
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All the best to you this week,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 7-21-13

2013-07-21T11:59:00.000-07:00

Gold - Has been consolidating trend-less inside a tedious neutral zone (1267 to 1302) for the past several days. This gives us little direction as to whether the Fibo turn date window from 7/18 to 7/23 is indicating a top or a bottom. Either way, tension is building and should let loose with a trending impulse soon out of the current neutral zone.

Here are the current ST support and resistance zones defined:

Gold and silver are developing positive (+ve) divergences in the MACD and RSI oscillators. However, it is important to understand the different modes that a bullish or bearish trend exhibits in the RSI.

When a market is in a bull trend, the 30-40 line on the daily RSI usually act as support and the 70 to 80 line act as resistance, with 80+ an indication of severe over bought condition. Shown here:

When a market is in a bear trend, the 50 to 60 line act as resistance and the 20 to 30 line act as support, with sub 20 an indication of severe over-sold condition. Shown here:

Once the 30-40 zone starts to become support again and we see incursions above 60 and into the 70-80 zone, it should be a good indication that the MT trend has changed to bullish. I expect to see this switch become evident by September at the latest.

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Silver - There are multiple EW counts that I can see that fall within the rules, but this one in particular caught my eye as a possibility:

One more ST low into a support zone around 19.00ish then an impulse up should move above 20.29 in one shot. If the support zone doesn't hold, then another trend down to a lower-low than 18.20 could be realized.

Positive divergences are building in silver, even another lower-low than 18.20 would likely only strengthen the bottoming pattern at this time.

MACD:

RSI:

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Gold/HUI ratio - This ratio is looking toppy, which means that a significant bottom in the PM complex (gold, silver miners) is very close.
Mining stocks generally anticipate forward price increases in gold and silver as investors attempt to add leverage with the purchase of over-sold mining shares.

Long term:

The current Mid-term trend is being supported by a multi-month trend-line. This trend-line is being tested for the 4th time, which suggests that a break of that support could come very soon. This would likely lead to an upward surge in mining stock prices outpacing any rise in gold prices. Over-all a bullish result for the PM complex.

GDX is also reflecting the same bullish rule of 4 break-out potential, as +ve divergences are built:

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S&P 500 - I spotted this fractal top that could be playing out, currently on step 3 (up) before step 4 (down) to test the 200DMA in the weeks ahead. Topping action could be seen early this week.

The Nikkei and USD/JPY could be leading the way with their own topping action.

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Good Hunting,
QG

MMM Weekend Update 7-14-13

2013-07-14T12:20:00.001-07:00

Gold - Back in early June I recognized that the 21-22 month cycle has likely converted to a peak to trough cycle. The trough measures to a span in June/July. Using the weekly time fibo tool, I found most measures landed on next week, the week of July 14th. There was also an outside chance that the fibo turn week could be in the week starting July 21st. This has narrowed the June/July span to within 1-2weeks. That cycle and time fibo work can be seen here:
http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/2013/06/mmm-weekend-update-6-9-13.html

But even 1-2 weeks is not a very effective range to trade. Now that we are on the threshold of the Fibo turn week, I can use the daily time fibo tool to help narrow down the turn to with in a few days. Most daily measures point to July 18th and July 19th +/- 1 day, with an outside chance of July 22nd to 23rd. The Full moon also present on July 22nd. The current ST trend is so far going up into these dates, while the MT trend is down. It is possible that the ST trend could reverse early this week and start heading back down into the turn dates. This condition would be most welcome for finding a significant bottom. If the ST trend continues to march upward into this turn date window, then it will make the cycle and wave structure a little more complicated.

The July 18th- 19th +/- 1day turn date window would span the close on July 17th to the open on the 23rd as non-trading day weekends are not counted. So if the ST trend moves down into this time frame, it increases the likelihood that a bottom will be realized. If however, the current ST trend moves up into this time frame, the chances increase for a significant top.

I also did some new monthly time fibo measures that I have not typically done, but wish I had. Multiple measures point to a Bottom in June! Could it be that the bottom is already in, and the July Weekly turn is just a higher-low? Could be, judge for yourself.

Now you might be thinking - "Quad, seriously, monthly 'time fibos' what kinda techno-hokum is that?!?!" Well, all I can say is, I wish I would have been paying more attention to them last October, as a the measures lined up perfectly for a top:

Here is one additional weekly time fibo measure:

And now the daily time fibo measures:

Here are a couple ST EW counts that could account for a higher-low, which would respect that June bottom and a lower-low that would violate the June bottom (1180.20) but most likely only 1-3% lower. Both counts have key support/resistance levels of 1267.92, 1298.89 and 1337.94. If the price exceeds 1337.94 before any bottom is printed, then the MT EW count changes, as this would be a wave (i)/(iv) violation:

Now I seriously doubt that FED chairman Bernanke fills his day-planner using time fibos. But I do find is extraordinarily uncanny that he is scheduled to testify this coming July 17th and 18th. Talk about coincidence.

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Silver - Will likely bottom (or top) roughly the same time as gold. Here is what that price action could look like as a bottom moving down into the fibo turn date window:

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The S&P500 has been shooting up rapidly, no doubt fueled by some short covering as key resistance levels were popped. However, the trail left behind is problematic, as multiple gaps up leave a mess behind. The markets may seem chaotic at times, but they are usually very good at 'cleaning' up their messes after the party is over. So I fully expect that this 'gap happy' run will exhaust itself and fall back to fill in these gaps left behind.

Strong, organized up-trends that methodically inch up day by day generally have the fortitude to last much longer:

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There are a plethora of different technical tools that can help guide a trader to make decisions. Having learned many of them, I have isolated the few tools that generally give the highest probabilities of producing tops and bottoms. If you are interested in receiving as well as learning about these valuable tools, you may subscribe to my daily email updates here:

http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

Good Hunting,
QG

MMM QG3 Model Portfolio Update 7-7-13

2013-07-07T16:40:00.000-07:00

This is an update showing the current performance results of an on going model portfolio using the QG3 trading method which is the primary focus of my Market Signal Service. Results are cumulative from December 2012 to the close of 7-5-13.

Metals Portfolio:

Forex Portfolio:

100k Model Portfolio:

If you are interested in taking advantage of the QG3 swing-trading method, I provide QG3 signals as part of my market signal service. Subscribe here for daily email updates: http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 7-7-13

2013-07-07T12:24:00.000-07:00

Gold - The moon cycle can often have a ST effect upon the markets. Gold in particular, as you will see, has been under a 'dark moon' for many months now. Since September 2012, The greater majority of new moons have marked ST tops in gold. The current iteration that is centered on July 8th (+/- 1 day) has a trend that is moving down into it. If a turn is realized early this week with a rise that moves up above 1267ish, the new moon has successfully marked a low.

Last week I was looking for an ABC move to the upside, with more time being spent on wave b down than expected, the wave c of (iv)green top may come later this month if 1180.20 holds as key support.

Previous chart:

Update:

These anticipated ST moves have been good for trading, approx $80+ in profits over 6 days.

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Silver - My MT EW count suggests that Silver is working on an irregular, possibly a triangle, 4th wave correction. Afterward a final 5th down could finish the impulse down from October 2012. After a bottom is placed, I would expect at a minimum, a 3 legged move up to back-test the 3rd of a 3rd 'point of recognition' break-down.

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EUR-USD - This market has been in a well anticipated bearish mode since the previously identified triangle/thrust topping action with weekly OKR follow-though to the downside.

The QG3 MT swing trade signal also turned bearish, providing a Short signal.

The neckline of a bearish Head and double shoulder pattern was tested last week, a break of which should calculated as a projected target of 1.1800ish. Subscribers are well positioned to take advantage of such a bearish outcome.

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GBP-USD - The Pound is being pounded, as expected. Elliot wave, Candlesticks and QG3 all lent a helping hand in positioning subscribers on the short side of this market. Several hundred ticks in the green now.

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If you are a trader and would like to learn how to take advantage of the signals that provide the greatest probabilities for successful trading, consider signing up for a 15 day free trail to my email newsletter and upcoming new website forum and chart library.
Subscribe here: http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

I will also be posting my quarterly QG3 results later today. Since December 2012 the QG3 model portfolio is up 210%

Have a great week,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 6-30-13

2013-06-30T10:44:00.000-07:00

Gold and Silver, - A ST and possible MT bottom was formed last week as expected. Here are the clues that suggested a turn up was very close:

Silver also added to the chorus with it's Triangle/thrust bottoming action:

On the near term horizon with successful follow-through this coming week, The attitude of the next wave up is key in determining how the MT may continue to unfold.

A quick 5 wave impulse up that confirms the larger triangle/thrust (Tr/Th) count needs to breach the MT down trend-line (green) and 1337.94 as a 'point of recognition', then take out the top of the previous wave (e) 1394.88. A subsequent back-test and higher-low could be seen in late July before another thrust up.

The alternative suggests that 3 corrective waves up(red-abc) that stays below 1337.94 will foster yet another 5 wave impulse down to a lower-low in late July. The resulting move up may produce a Ro4 breach to the upside and a higher-low back-test in mid August. This could be the final low to finish the MT count down from 1795ish.

The daily OKR on Friday is a good start for a multi-day run while above MT key support at 1180.20

On the 1hr chart, a base channel break-out is evident, which suggest that an acceleration channel is in progress while above 1212 and the mid-channel (blue dashed).

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HUI mining index - I've been eying a reversal in this market also. With GDX hitting my target of 22ish as part of a 'roll-out' recovery pattern, everything came together nicely for a bottom and trend change.

Here is the previous chart defining the support area:

Updated:

The weekly chart was showing some positive divergences in the RSI, which was confirmed with last week's bullish hammer candle.

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All the best to you,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 6-23-13

2013-06-23T10:55:00.000-07:00

Gold - Last week's drop in gold, Euro and GBP was well anticipated, even before Ben Bernanke opened hit mouth on June 19th. Here's how:

I posted this chart last weekend, showing the EW potential for another thrust down:

Here is an update to the count, and how it may play out in the weeks ahead while the price remains below key resistance #1 (1365.63):

Here is what my subscribers were being informed of last week before and after the drop:

My count is but one of two that I am currently paying attention to. Another elliottician (HoldemPlayer from the Kitco Forums) who I respect as an excellent Elliot Wave counter, has another count that is also a viable possibility.

Speaking for myself and not HP, I think his count could be complete or very close to completion. If true, the Triangle/Thrust bottoming pattern would be confirmed with an impulsive move higher very soon up above key resistance at 1365.63. Then a possible bullish iHnS may form through July.

We are in the 21-22 month cycle bottom area between now and July. I fully expect to see a counter rally out of this cycle, possibly to back test 1500-1666 in gold and silver could back-test 26ish.

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Eur/USD - The top in this market had many clues that a top was forming with subsequent drop:

Here was the Long Term resistance line that the Euro was wrestling against last week:

The top was confirmed with an OKR on the weekly, the same reversal candle stick pattern has played out multiple times in the past with impulsive results.

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GBP/USD - The top in this market played out a little different than the Euro, instead building an expanding ending Diagonal pattern:

This ST pattern butted right up into MT resistance at the 61.8% fibo retrace level of 1.5789

The Pound also printed a bearish OKR on the weekly chart.

Keep in mind that these OKRs in the Euro and GBP are responsible for many MT tops, However, if these tops fail they will likely fail with a vengeance, causing an impulsive short squeeze to the upside.

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All the best to you,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 6-16-13 Long Term Gold EW Count

2013-06-16T11:18:00.003-07:00

Gold - Long Term Update. Reverting back to some old counts that were working, I have extrapolated and filled in data for the months in between then and now. In the following interpretation, I am taking into consideration how a 'worst case scenario' may play out. 'Worst Case' meaning a correction the eats up much more time AND price. Understand that there are multiple EW counts that are feasible, obeying all the rules. Take my Long Term (LT) and Mid-Term counts depicted below with a grain of salt. For now, Short Term Key Resistance is 1423.88 which means the current ST count would need an adjustment if that level is breached anytime soon. The colon(:) and Blue lines designate alternate counts.

Here is the old EW LT count from 2009:

Update for 2013:

Zoomed in:

MT view of (C)orange leg down, counted as a sharp double-zig-zag which is alternate to wave (A) which was counted as a flat correction:

The Mid-Term in a nut shell: We should be seeing some bottoming action take place between now and no later than September, seasonal bullishness should be evident by that time. An ending diagonal pattern, choppy and down into the the summer months would be an obvious sign of a market that was set to rally in the later half of the year. That rally should easily back-test April's break-down from 1520 to 1540, and could even go the distance to hit the center of the previous wave (B)orange congestion (resistance zone) between 1660 and 1700. How the price tangles with the the major multi-year 'Thick Black Line', will be the key determinant whether further upside will be realized (green breach) or not (red rejection down).

For LT stackers, a long, drawn out, deeper bottom would be very welcome.

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All the best to you this trading week,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 6-9-13

2013-06-09T09:50:00.000-07:00

Gold - The current ST and MT probabilities up or down look mixed at this time. For now the key pivot point is 1423.88, bullish above, bearish below.

I have done some recent time cycle and work and found some interesting measures.

The 21-22 month cycle has accounted for a few peak to peak spans. That same cycle is about to be hit again in June/July, this time as a potential peak to trough cycle.

June/July is a wide area of time. After sweeping for weekly time Fibos, the week starting July 14th and possibly 21st was hit with a few sweeps:

There is also a Full Moon on July 22nd. As we approach that July 14th and 21st weekly turn date window, I may be able to hone down the turn to a specific 3 day window after we get a little closer.

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Yen, Nikkei and SPX - Was the May 22nd top in equities easy to spot? I think so, here is how:

First, I posted this Ending Diagonal pattern back on April 28th:

On May 22 the topping process was deemed complete:

The pattern played out as expected:

The very night right after my May 22nd report to subscribers this happened in the Nikkei:

The SPX (S&P500) also posted a warning of a top and correction on May 22nd:

Using only the Elliot Wave theory and candlesticks, a significant top in USD/JPY and equity markets were able to be spotted and acted upon.

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Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 6-2-13

2013-06-02T11:56:00.001-07:00

AUD/USD - The Aussie Dollar has had near perfect correlation to the Dow, Crude and Gold for several years now. This correlation has been near a ratio of 1:1 up until recently, when divergent disconnects have started to show.

The Australian Dollar (red) and Gold (blue) have paired up nicely, sometimes switching lead roles with each other. Currently Gold has lead the way down, with the Aussie lagging behind but catching up quickly:

The Aussie/Crude (WTI) has also enjoyed close company, except the recent plunge in AUD (red) has not yet been reflected in the price of Crude (blue) which has drawn flat in recent weeks:

The largest AUD (red) divergence is with the Dow (blue). The stock market has continued skyward, while the Aussie has collapsed:

I suspect that one of these markets in particular is lying, showing a strong face but weak in the knees (The Dow). Perhaps the tremendous Yen intervention by the BoJ has caused the currency markets to temporarily disconnect from their old paradigms. Either way, something is amiss and will likely see a correction soon. I think the Aussie is like a canary in a coal mine, it's either going to choke on the fumes of toxic monetary intervention or has some how died of natural causes (which I highly doubt). The Australian economy is a chief exporter of raw materials and energy to the Eastern and Western economies. Generally a fall in the value of AUD, signals that export demand is shrinking, AUD denominated raw materials and energy ceases to be bid up, reducing demand for the Aussie, thus it's value. Most likely an indication of yet another global economic slow down.
We'll see. Crude Oil is the fence sitter, a leap into bull or bear territory in the weeks ahead, breaking out of it's current consolidation, should make the forth coming trend obvious as to it's next MT direction.

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BDI - Baltic Dry Index. Has been a bellwether of global economic activity, From the top in 2007, the index has been looking for a major bottom along with the global economy. The current triangle/thrust pattern and choppy movement above a mid-channel line suggests that the BDI may have at least one more shot down to finalize a bottom in the months ahead, likely unwinding any of the last long side speculation. A Rule of 4 (Ro4) breach above the descending channel (green) should confirm a bottom.

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30 Year Bond - The 'Long' bond has had a very consistent 30 year peak-to-trough cycle well into the 1800s. The last trough in price (peak in yield)was in 1981, here it is 32 years later and a peak is due (low in yield). I suspect that major FED involvement (quantitative easing) has caused this 30 year cycle to extend to some degree. However, I doubt that the FED will be able to hold off this cycle much longer. Those that have paid attention to my blog know that I have been hunting for a major top in the Bond market for a few years now. The most recent activity has been giving clues that another potential major top is in place. The action could be that of a stealthy roll-over, with a wash-down soon to be realized, but must keep under 150.00.

As global credit markets continue to be hit by the profligate financial maneuverings of central banks and nations, the US long bond will either be the last life boat in the credit market or go down with the ship. Time is not on it's side according to the 30 year cycle.

Good Hunting Folks,

Quad G

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MMM Weekend Update 5-26-13

2013-05-26T13:02:00.001-07:00

Gold - Is currently navigating the previously mentioned support zone of 1310 to 1430. The initial dead cat bounce up to 1488 has now settled back down along with some of the volatility. While the price remains below 1440 to 1488, I suspect the trend will continue to move sideways and down. Above that zone allows a possible run up to 1520 to 1600.

In previous blog postings I have laid out the case for 1230 to 1280 being the next level of significant support and 850 to 1050 likely being bedrock generational support. However, a few other measurements seem to be pointing to the 1150ish level as possible support as well.

If the price actually falls to this level, I'll be on the look out for possible reversal patterns using Elliot Waves, Candlesticks and the QG3.

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Silver - Unlike Gold, Silver has yet to back test even a small portion of it's break-down. As positive divergences develop in the Oscillators (RSI(14), MACD), I suspect that this back test of the 26.00 level may be realized, possibly inside the next few months. But I highly doubt the first back-test will breach 26.00, a back-up for another run at it later (several months perhaps) is more likely to breach it. A contracting ending diagonal pattern (orange) would be very helpful in gauging a potential major bottom.

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HUI (miner index) - is starting to touch the top of some major LT support. Any further down and stock prices will reach into 'ridiculous' territory. Several senior dividend paying mining stocks now have P/Es in the teens and even single digits. I don't suspect this condition to last for very long.

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USD/CHF - Produced a text book 'Triangle/Thrust' topping formation leading a downward move into what is likely to be a larger ST consolidation.

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USD/JPY - Produced a text book Ending Diagonal pattern (expanding type - distributed top)

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AUD/USD - Elliot Wave and Candlesticks can be useful for identifying ST tops and bottoms, But the QG3 is designed to catch and land the 'big fish'. Our current Short position in the Aussie is likely to net a 'lunker' of several hundred ticks.

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If you are interested in taking advantage of some Elliot Wave, Candlestick and QG3 signals, consider becoming a subscriber and receive my daily email updates. Sign-up here for a 15 day free trial:
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Good Hunting,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 5-12-13

2013-05-12T14:22:00.000-07:00

Gold - Is in the process of back-testing the previous break-down out of a base channel. A successful test would see a rejection soon and at least one more leg down (red projection). However, if instead the price moves above the 'neutral zone', back into the channel again, the MT outcome could be very bullish.

Last week closed with what is typically a bullish hammer candle on Friday, but it's important to understand the 'flip side' of such candles. Playing candles is playing probabilities, there is a bullish and bearish one in each hammer candle:

Here is an example of a bullish hammer candle that failed:

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USD - Has been consolidating the last 4-5 weeks, a thrust to the upside could challenge a long term trend line above for the 4th time. As you know I'm a fan of the 'Rule of 4' (Ro4) which has a high probability of producing impulsive behavior when triggered.

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AUD/USD - Has produced a great example of a Ro4 that was triggered to the downside:

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Trade School - As part of my QG3 market signal service, I identify chart patterns that offer a high probability of providing a successful trading outcome. Recently I outlined a successful Ending Diagonal pattern in GBP/USD and a key bearish Hammer Candle as part of an ABC fibo price relationship in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD - Ending Diagonal

Outcome:

EUR/USD - Bearish Inverted Hammer on the Daily and ABC Fibo relationship:

Outcome:

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Good Hunting out there,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 5-5-13

2013-05-05T10:02:00.000-07:00

Gold - The mid-channel is often a 'fork' in the road that can determine the attitude of subsequent wave structures.
The LT 4 point channel (blue) can be a base channel followed by a break-down into an acceleration channel, if so the price action should stay below the mid-channel line (dashed blue). However, a breach above that line (green projection) on a weekly closing basis would suggest that the 4 point channel could be a bull flag eventually leading to further upside upon a break-out above the channel.

My long term perspective looked like this back in 2011:

http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/2011/07/gold-lt-end-game-final-5th-is-near.html

My target was not reached, the top came sooner and shorter than expected. Where to now? There are a few counts that I can fathom, some very bullish, some very bearish, all with their own unique requirements. However, the generational support for any EW count is very likely between 850-1045ish. I will not predict that the price will indeed move into that support anytime soon, but if it did, I do think it would be a dream come true for many stackers.

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EUR/USD - Is possibly setting up a bearish HnS pattern, but must stay below 1.3711.

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Crude (WTI) - An interesting Triangle with in a Triangle pattern. We could see a 'Rule of 4' breach to the upside without a serious rejection.

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QG

MMM QG3 Model Portfolio Update 4-28-13

2013-04-28T19:16:00.000-07:00

This is an update showing the current performance results of an on going model portfolio using the QG3 trading method which is the primary focus of my Market Signal Service.

Metals Portfolio:

FOREX Portfolio:

100K Model Portfolio:

If you are interested in using the QG3 trading method, I provide QG3 signals as part of my market signal service. Subscribe here for daily email updates: http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/p/mmm-market-signal.html

After a 15 day free trial, monthly payments are $20.00 or about $1.00 per trading day.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 4-28-13

2013-04-28T12:13:00.000-07:00

Gold - There is a technical situation that I have been aware of for a while now that has been reliably accurate in the few instances that I have seen it in the past. Basically when the 3EMA closes beyond the upper or lower Bollinger Band, it's an extreme conditions that is always followed by a correction. I've never seen the condition last more than two sessions before a reversal occurs. There are exception to every technical rule but I have yet to see the exception to this rule.

An example from September 2011:

The latest occurrence:

So far the upside advance has hit a conglomeration of resistance levels from various sources coming tightly together:

The price of Gold has moved up into the Fibo/Full Moon turn date last week. If it is a successful turn date we should see at least 4 (total of 5) more days or more to the downside. If the price moves up above last week's high or 1485.22 then the turn date window is busted and a greater upside surge could be realized, possibly challenging 1600 in very little time.

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Silver - Is currently wrestling the price inside a 4 point channel. This could be a bullish base channel or bear flag. How the price deals with the 20DMA next week should determine the outcome. A daily close above the 20DMA would suggest an acceleration channel the upside is underway, but must stay above key support at 22.99 (lower channel support).

If this week continues higher and closes next Friday above $25.99, a major Harami reversal pattern will be printed, possibly setting a major bottom at 22.00

I've been teaching my subscribers about the benefits of observing candlestick patterns in the 1hr, 2hr and 4hr time frames and how to trade them effectively. Silver has printed some excellent examples of 4hr candles and their corresponding reactions:

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USD/JPY - Continues to wrestle with the prominent psychological resistance at 100.00. A potentially bullish triangle consolidation pattern underneath 100 threatens to break it soon with a resulting thrust upward into an Ending Diagonal. Such a pattern needs to stay above 95.80. The thrust up has a few measured targets, 101.50ish, 104.20ish and 105.54 (not depicted, 2.618 x wave 1 (8.15)+ wave 1).

The larger pattern is still being fulfilled. My long term bottom call from May 2012 is producing the expected impulsive behavior:

Update:

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EUR/USD - The QG3 continues to produce excellent trading signals. Subscribers were recently signaled to cover shorts to lock in profits in the vicinity of 488 ticks.

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Good Hunting,
QG

MMM Weekend Update 4-21-13

2013-04-21T13:38:00.000-07:00

Gold - Though I understood that a break of 1520 would likely start a run down toward a target zone of 1310 to 1430, I did not expect such ferocity in the sell-off reaching the target zone inside 2 days. This run also violated the lower base channel line that I posted last week. This suggests that the channel line is relatively 'soft' support, so further selling in the weeks ahead below 1310 looks possible.

A the next support zone is between 1226 and 1308, with a sweet-spot about 1250 to 1285. With the next Fibo turn date coming this week (April 23rd to 24th +/-1 day and Full moon on the 25th) If the trend continues down into that date then a significant bottom could be forming for at least another Dead Cat Bounce (DCB), if not something greater (green projection). However, continued upward/sideways moves into the turn date window would suggest a top, with another leg down likely into May (red projection). An unexpected drop through 1226 would kill both of these scenarios to favor further downside.

Zoomed out:

In 2010 the market advanced through its 'point of recognition'. Which is often a point at which the market has gained greater confidence in the prevailing direction. With such confidence latter corrections will often fail to back-test its break-outs adequately. The market is now correcting down in an attempt to fill that void as you'll see in this next slide. Corrections are often 'janitors' that sweep up the disorganized crap left behind by bulls and bears.

Speaking of crap, the 'dump' that the bears made last week will also likely be 'swept' up by the market Janitors at some point. For example, The New York market has yet to spend anytime in the 1404 to 1480 price range since the dump. At some point relatively soon, I think they will.

If Gold does fall down into this weeks turn date window, watch for a potential bullish hammer on a weekly basis, it should look something like this by Friday:

We now have a 'Thick Black Line' TBL established for the gold market:

Forward looking potential if price can stay above the mid-channel line (dashed green):

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Silver - A triangle thrust bottom could be see this week. If true, the price should stay below 24.00 until heading to a lower-low.

There should be plenty of LT support between 15 and 21ish.

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Dow - Just piecing together some cycles and measurements. This scenario looks possible if the price remains under the upper expanding wedge boundary:

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QG

...

MMM Weekend Update 4-16-13

2013-04-14T12:35:00.000-07:00

Gold - With a new multi-year low, I suspect that we are going to see alot of choppy action to the downside as those that bought above 1500 will likely be panicking out (selling) into the hands of those that have been waiting patiently to buy a larger correction. Sellers will be exiting at the bounces and new buyers will want to get in on the dips. But I suspect the trend will continue down for at least a few months as lower-highs and lower-lows are predominant. The last swing high was 1590, so the trend is MT bearish under that price.

I suspect that the ST trend will continue down into the April 23rd-24th turn date (+/- 1 day) from which a ST bottom could be seen with a bounce up ST (at least). 1440-50ish looks like a probable target by that turn date as long as price remains below 1540 in the interim.

Probably the most important thing to consider in the LT is the price staying inside the base channel. A violation of the base channel with an acceleration channel to the downside would likely kill the Gold bull for decades instead of years.

Here are some long term measurements that could be hit in the MT, the red circle is a support cluster of channel and fibo lines, converging around November 2013:

Zoomed in:

In percentage terms gold could correct as far as 2008:

My fellow contributor HoldemPlayer over at the Kitco Forums beat me to the punch with an updated LT Elliot Wave count that I too would favor at this time:

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Silver - Friday's wash out closed under 26.00, this almost assures further selling in the weeks ahead. Weeks that close in the bottom 10% of their intra-week range, especially at a new multi-month low, has a very high probability of seeing further downside. Lower targets are 24.20ish (61.8% fibo retrace, not shown) of the 2008 bottom and the 2011 top. And then potetially 19-22ish after a bounce.

This larger correction is probably a larger handle of a multi-decade cup formation with the left rim at $50 in 1980, bottom of cup in 1993 and right rim at $50 in 2011. If and when $50 is broken to the upside the probability of it trading below that level ever again is significantly reduced.

No matter how far a market moves up or down in a manic run, such periods are almost always retraced as irrationality is covered by sanity.

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Dow - Here are some interesting fibo relationships in time and price that connect in November 2013 at a price of 16,122ish. Which just so happens to hit a multi-year ascending trend-line. Fascinating by itself, but then add the Novemerish 2013 target for Gold and I become even more attentive. A Dow/Gold ratio could continue to correct upward to 12.60ish by November and then fall toward a new low below 5.69? we'll see.

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My QG3 subscription performance tracking will not be posted today. I am working on releasing a quarterly performance portfolio. I will get this posted ASAP.

Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 4-7-13

2013-04-07T20:30:00.000-07:00

Gold - The fibo turn date window for April 4th to April 9th saw a trend move down into that date and saw a decisive turn on Thursday (4th) and Friday (5th) last week.

I performed a Time Fibo sweep for dates coming up in the near future. 3 interesting weekly turns point to a span of time between the week opening April 14th to the week opening April 28th. Weekly turns can get us in the ball park, but daily time fibos can fine tune the turn inside the weekly span. The daily turns point to a span of time between April 23rd to the 24th. A full-moon is also on the 25th. Those series of dates are right in the middle of the weekly alignments. So, a trend down into that 23rd to 24th window would suggest a bottom turn, a trend up into that turn date window would suggest a top. With a fairly large compilation of alignments, I would have to say that the turn date window should have a very noticeable MT reaction. I suspect that most of April could remain range bound between 1540 and 1620, but the month of May could see a significant trend develop, I think the trend will be bullish if price can stay above 1540.

Weekly Time Fibo Alignments:

Daily Time Fibo Alignments:

ST Elliot wave potential:

If the Elliot wave pattern plays out, it could set up a bullish iHnS projection:

Last week's daily candle stick pattern was also bullish:

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USD - A bearish inverted hammer was printed last week, setting up critical resistance at 83.49

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USD/JPY - Provided an excellent buying opportunity, but could be getting toppy soon.

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S&P500 - logged in a bearish topping candle last week on the daily, trend would be bearish while under 1573.66

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Good Hunting this week,
QG