At Last, 2920 The Strand Goes

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 05:05:00 +0000

Way back in June 2009, 2920 The Strand began a long journey.

The big (7br/7ba, 5675 sq. ft.) beachfront home was ready for a new owner, just about 3 years after a July 2006 sale at $9.0m.

But the seller believed he had a really rare jewel, and wanted a healthy markup. Surely the land was rare – a corner lot with about 1/3rd more dirt than the typical Strand lot (4500 sq. ft. vs. about 3300).

The listing launched at $12.5m, a markup of +$3.5m/+39%.

Can you remember what the world was like in June 2009? That markup was a fanciful request any time, but especially so then. You can almost say our market had bottomed right then, and optimism was scarce.

What ensued was over 800 DOM in a series of stop-and-start listings, with the price always far too high, making 2920 The Strand perhaps the most market-exposed property we've covered here at MBC over almost 5 years.

Before the last listing expired in October 2011, the asking price was still $10.995m.

Finally, someone called the seller's bluff and offered much, much less.

Now 2920 The Strand has sold for $9.250m, almost $1.75m less than the last ask, and $3.250m off the start price.

On the positive side, it's 2.7% more than that peak-year acquisition price.

With MB's median price currently in 2004 territory, anyone who gets more than a 2006 price is accomplishing something. Just not highway robbery.

For more on the home, check out our review from October 2009.

We became more openly skeptical of this property over time, as did the seller.

Acknowledging that the home needs a major reworking, the seller had an architect reimagine the house and posted the video – but at that point still had not adjusted the price to reflect that revelation.

As we said in "The Vision Thing," discussing a few homes marketed as something other than what they currently are, the video on 2920 The Strand purports to ask and answer the question: Wouldn't this home make a great, totally different home?

With a new owner, we're about to find out.

Maybe Palm Has Finally Turned

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:30:00 +0000

It was way back last July that we said "it's hard to believe more than 4 months have gone by with 1801 Palm (4br/4ba, 3900 sq. ft.) still on offer." (See "Can Palm Turn the Corner?")

And then another 5 months went by after that.

Tuesday the home switched from "backup offer" status – where it had been since mid-December – to "pending," likely an indication that some contingency has been met by the buyers, perhaps sale of their existing home. (Admittedly we haven't pressed for details.) This makes it all the more like that this second reported deal will wrap up. At last.

At Palm, they've rolled on for 279 combined days on market, a pretty surprising accomplishment for an attractive, newer (2000), corner-lot home in a pretty great location.

The last offering price was $2.129m, more than 8% below its 2004 purchase price ($2.325m).

That's interesting when you consider median price trends for all of MB. Our 2011 median price was essentially the same as the 2004 median price (citywide). (See "2011 Wrap: More Sales, 2004 Median.")

Palm is a better-than-average house in a better-than-average location, all things considered across the city. But here it is, queued up to perform notably worse that the median price for the 2 periods in question.

Or, to reframe that: Here the buyers are, poised to get a deal substantially better than one might expect of a 2004 acquisition resold today.

We've never fully understood the market's downcast response to 1801 Palm. We did speculate back in July:

Maybe people don't like the tiered layout (as you can see here, the home runs along an upslope), or the thick, long shag carpeting, or the limited number of bedrooms (4) for the square footage. But none of these are major issues, and that location does sing.

The home also has some bonuses besides location, as we noted in our "Weekend Opens" review back in March last year.

In between our July post and the December deal at 1801 Palm, there was a deal at 1816 Palm (5br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft.), which came on at $2.3m and closed for $2.181m in September after making a quick deal.

Notable differences: More conventional layout, 5th bedroom, non-corner/quieter location. It's just steps away, but the balance of those factors made it a must-have.

We'll see where 1801 Palm wraps up. It seems to stand out as a surprising case of a nice property that faced unexpected distress on the open market.

Steal This Sand?

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 16:15:00 +0000

We won't have to say much for you to recognize a possible steal of a deal.

Sand Section.

Full-size lot.

Price with a 7 in front.

Wow.

That'd be 433 Marine Place we're discussing – a full-size lot (2700 sq. ft.) along a nice street just steps from Grandview elementary and with ocean-peek potential. And forget that formal address, which sounds like (and is) off an alley. The lot comes all the way forward to 23rd St., where the address would properly be 432 23rd. (The current structure, pictured here, is tucked away back on the alley.)

The start price: $725k.

By way of comparison, on the open market today you can find 2 smaller and much less-well-located Sand Section lots at similar prices:

3600 Vista is a pebble's throw from Rosecrans and the lot's just 1800 sq. ft., or fully one-third smaller than 433 Marine Place. It came up at $715k in mid-December. We love the stunning forthrightness of the listing description, mentioning a leaky roof, water damage, potential mold and – to summarize it all – "decades of deferred maintenance." (Note: This one's in "backup offer" status, meaning they've got a deal but will entertain others.)

212 38th Place is a back-alley half lot in El ~~Porto~~ Norte that's actually asking the most of these 3 listings: $750k. That price didn't look completely crazy when it popped up in early December, but it sure looks horrid against the full lot up by Grandview.

Ah, but there's the tell. If a smaller lot in a worse location is priced higher – that means that what we're seeing here is that Marine Place is willfully, woefully underpriced.

It's an unlabeled auction.

The fuller story is that 433 Marine Place is in probate, with the sale subject to court confirmation and overbids. First they'll auction the property off by collecting multiple bids (they've got some now), then the conservator will name a winner, and down the road, that winner can later be outbid in court during the "confirmation" process.

It's a messy way to find the market value, but that's how they'll do it.

The last time MBC covered a home in a similar situation, it was the "grim, destroyed" house at 1801 Elm in the Trees. That one literally went up for auction – a 90-second affair held at the property in December 2009 – and closed 4 months later. The auction winner there paid $805k, but could have been outbid during the court confirmation process. No one tried. (See "Probate Auction Home Closes," from April 2010.) Last we saw at Elm, the new owners were engaged in a major remodel.

There's really no remodel potential at 433 Marine Place. The little 2br/1ba, 650 sq. ft. structure's days are numbered. This block of 23rd St. is largely packed with THs – 2 connected units on a full lot – from the 90s and 2000s. And that's likely the ultimate fate of this property. It ought to be redeveloped with new THs.

On the same block more than a year ago, 442 23rd St. sold for $1.325m. That's an odd duplex (2 separate structures) on a larger lot (40x90, 3640 sq. ft.). They kept the duplex as rental units, at least for now. That sale hints at a value for 433 Marine Place below $1m, but we would not be surprised to see it go higher based on other comps.

It could be midyear before we see the sale close up and get a price for the dirt here. We'll report back when we see it wrap.

A View to a Hill Sale

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 16:18:00 +0000

For 3 months last Summer, you had a shot at a pretty big Hill Section remodel with far-above-average views.

That was 832 1st (4br/4ba, 4275 sq. ft.), which quit the market in mid-September. But it was certain to sell – the owners already had purchased their new property.

We half-expected to see the listing come back after the (Pats-Giants) Super Bowl. But no. It sold right at the end of last year. We just took note of it, since the sale did not post on the MLS.

3 months on market, 3 months off market – and a deal.

So how did the sellers do?

The start price for 832 1st was $3.595m. We toured it with a client while it was being marketed, and the client gave it some serious consideration. Standing outside, we agreed the home made sense at about $3.2m.

The actual buyers got a slightly better deal, paying $3.166m.

That's -$429k (-12%) from the list price, and -$34k (-1%) off our estimate of its value.

In case you never caught the home while it was offered, this was an early-90s home that was recently remodeled (2007) and modernized extensively. There's a French Country elegance to the place, with fine woodworking and stone, bolstered by a 21st century kitchen and master bath, among other touches. (There's a little more in our review from June 2011.)

The views are splendid, covering ocean, PV and (on a clear day) Catalina views from all over the top level. Views span nearly 180 degrees, depending on where you sit or stand.

Some of the views will be impeded some day when the neighbor to the west gets built up, but there will still be plenty left to love. As there should be for $3m+.

Weekend Opens (1/21-1/22)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 18:29:00 +0000

Inventory is still light, but we note that two of this week's debut listings both have an 8 in front.

That means: Yes, you can live in MB for less than a million, quite a bit less. But here's hoping you don't have too much stuff.

Before we describe the week's new housing offerings, here's a shout-out to a new feature on CBS (TV) LA's website regarding MB shopping, dining and nightlife. The focus there is on some of our town's newer offerings – a reminder that the last few years have really given us some headline-worthy additions. The feature's author: Mrs. MBC!

To plan out your weekend home tours, use this Redfin map list of open houses – you can sort by price or sub-region of MB by clicking the title on a column. Or click here for the more traditional Beach Reporter list of opens.

As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin. We ask MBC readers who visit the featured homes, or any open house, to also report back in the comments here. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Thanks!

Tree Section

759 27th (4br/3ba, 3300 sq. ft.) is aiming for that middle-of-the-road buyer targeting the Trees, wanting a good location and an updated, larger – but not huge – home.

It checks a lot of boxes, with a very modern kitchen and master bath, a pretty nice location with a sense of open space, plus some views.

Inside, you get common spaces both upstairs and down in this, shall we say, modified version of an upside-down layout. (Dare we utter the dreaded words "split level?") You enter and get the choice of going up a few steps to the main level with formal living, dining, kitchen and a separate office (which could be a guest bedroom), or, from the entry, stepping down to 3br and a nicely bright family room that opens to the back yard. (The yard is now mainly paved as a large patio with built-in BBQ.)

The master suite is alone up top – actually up and back toward the front, off the living room. It's a big, bright room with soaring ceilings and that terrific, modern bath, with Carrara marble and sharp, dark-wood cabinetry. Fine detail note: On the bedroom ceiling, they put a little line of trim along the main beam down the center – a small accent that speaks to the attention to detail everywhere, and just the daily enjoyment of the small things that you could have here.

Yes, it's quite apparent that this home is an 80s build, despite the updates. We would guess the exterior is in a Tudor-inspired style. Architecturally, it's a bit of a mess (pondstone: really?), and could use an exterior re-do like they just applied to the neighbor down the street at 742 27th. (See yesterday's "New Owners Get to Work.") All things in time.

An unexpected bonus is the huge garage, legally 3-car and the size of a 4-car garage. It's not like the beach is so close that you can't park on the street or in the driveway, so this amounts to lots of extra storage potential in an already-large home.

The start price at $1.579m seems designed not to mess around.

The 2 recent neighborhood sales to look at are:

608 29th (4br/4ba, 3070 sq. ft.), smaller, boasting a superior location and yard, but an upside-down layout that was far more of a challenge – it sold for $1.630m in late October last year. (See "Making Upside-Down Work.")

2509 Laurel (4br/3ba, 3650 sq. ft.), obviously bigger, no yard, and though it's a neighbor just a 2-minute walk away from 27th, definitely suffering by comparison in location, since the Laurel property is just off Valley. Laurel sold for $1.575m without the plus-plus updates you see at 759 27th. (See "Close the Books on 2509 Laurel.")

759 27th starts at $1.579m and is open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm.

2401 Oak (3br/2ba, 1160 sq. ft.) is a smallish shortie on Oak, but that literal description misses a lot.

The little late-1940s cottage was updated within the last several years, benefiting from a kitchen upgrade, an improved shared bath and a pretty nice back yard retooling.

If you find the house small, at least out back you've got a good-sized deck, built-in BBQ, hot tub, stone patio area and plenty of grass. Also, the attached, onetime one-car garage has been unofficially converted into bonus living space (office/playroom). Laundry's in there, too.

This is the "right" side of Oak, with a sunny back yard to the west of the house and even some treetop views given the slight downslope. It felt tranquil on our visit. (There's even a hammock.) Across Oak on the "wrong" side, a high fence and mature foliage mask the parking lot for a commercial building reasonably well. You know Sepulveda's nearby, and Marine is also just 5 doors down to the north, but neither street seems to impose strongly.

Common spaces are a bit tight, as the square footage would suggest, though the bedrooms seemed comfortable. The master opens out to the deck and back yard. Its private bath has only a shower, no tub.

We found the wood flooring in most rooms to be notably scuffed-up and wishing for a redo, but that will be the next owner's job. This sort of wood often looks very good when sanded and refinished – the work shouldn't be too pricey, but it shouldn't be ignored, either.

2401 Oak was last purchased in a bubble year (June 2005) for $1.075m, and is offered back now as a short sale at $879k (-18% from 2005, aligned with MB's median price, which is off 18% from the peak). If the question is: Can we get into the 90266 with a yard for under $900k? The answer here is yes, with some obvious compromises involved.

2401 Oak starts at $879k and is open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

In the Trees, Oak is among the least-good streets, while Palm is among the best. So 2404 Palm (4br/3ba, 3075 sq. ft.) starts with a nice asset. And it's fairly big – another asset.

And then, reality sets in.

The layout is simply strange, owing to some choices made as the home was built (in 1986) into a downsloping lot. Some living spaces on the entry level end at a landing which overlooks the downstairs family room.

That's unusual, but the placement of bedrooms is the real hitch. There are 3 downstairs on the home's partly subterranean first level. (We discussed the home in some detail in Oct. 2007 in "Unique Ain't Always Great.") And those bedrooms, while brighter on a recent visit than we recalled from '07, still feel like basement rooms, with windows opening to the shoring and fence on either side of the house. One, outfitted as an office, has doors opening to the back patio.

But the master... that's upstairs and around off from the entry level, in a world of its own. It's big and private, but far from the kids – 2 floors away – if you're looking at this as a family home. That instantly starts a series of questions rolling.

After failed efforts to sell in 2007 and early 2011, the owners dumped the "contemporary" look that the home bore and softened it up a lot, bringing it closer to an acceptable standard for the mainstream buyer. It's much warmer and cheerier, if still flawed.

Before the remodel last year, 2404 Palm was offered for as little as $1.365m. After the remodel, $1.550m.

Now 2404 Palm starts yet again, this time at $1.499m, and is open Sun. 1-3pm.

Sand Section

Regular readers know that this west-of-Sepulveda, SFR-only blog has been branching out for some time to look east of the highway and to look at townhomes.

330 41st St., Unit G (2br/3ba, 1250 sq. ft.) was another stop on our mind-expanding tour of MB condo/TH inventory. We've passed this recently remodeled El ~~Porto~~ Norte complex endless times, but had never seen inside before.

The building's history is readily apparent inside. The units were built in the 80s and redone in the most recent upcycle. (We're informed that the building's units were supposed to be condos in the 80s, but the bust way-back-then quashed that plan and they become rentals. Not until the mid-2000s remodel did the units sell individually.)

There are just 2br, both on the first (entry) floor, each with its own bath. Countertops are very nice, but they feel like partial upgrades to rooms that still have an 80s/90s flair. Windows for the bedrooms overlook Highland Ave.

The living space upstairs, as the photos show, can be chopped into segments, with a small office/reading space up at the front, a comfy living area and a separate, step-up dining room on wood flooring. The kitchen is just big enough and benefits from a decent 2000s update.

Custom paint colors in several rooms are a bit of a turnoff (lemon yellow? alternating wall colors in the same room?) but that's easily fixed. The greyish berber carpet throughout is probably very practical, but isn't very attractive.

Parking is at a premium in El ~~Porto~~ Norte, but this one comes with 3 secure/covered spaces and the right to 3 guest spaces up behind on Crest – in case you ever need to fill up the condo.

To be on Highland, to the east, carries an obvious liability, but the plus is ocean views.

Some newer pluses: the bar with the shark moved a couple blocks away, and the space now houses a higher-end fish joint; the vacant Harvey Washbanger's is being retooled as a fancy new gym; and the little market across the street has sprouted a little deli counter.

Is this the story of how El Norte goes upscale?

A recent sale in the same building provides a useful comp: Unit D in the same building sold quickly for $815k last July. It seems to be the same size and layout, though not a corner unit like G.

Unit E seems to have sold for the most in 2006, at $900k, while the subject property here, Unit G, sold for $875k in March 2006.

A full 5 years later, 330 41st Unit G is up for $25k less than acquisition, and $35k more than the recent comp, at $849k. It's open Sun. 2-4pm.

New Owners Get to Work

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 18:56:00 +0000

Periodically we like to check in on some recent sales to see what kind of work people are doing to the homes they have purchased.

Here are a few recent examples – including at least one big eye-opener.

3100 Laurel (4br/3ba, 2100 sq. ft.) is our first case. Our before-and-after photos here show the evolution.

This is a home on a corner lot at 31st St. that MBC said had "almost too many flaws to count" with a layout we said was "shockingly awkward," partly due to the mid-level garage. (The listing called it a "great layout," so you can see there is room for different opinions. Har.) That mid-level garage is almost necessitated by the odd upslope of the lot toward Laurel – unless you scrape the house.

The ivy-covered 60s original with a pool in back was going to be a major project for whoever picked it up. And the buyers – who paid $995k last April – completely agreed. (See "Laurel Deal's Done.")

They removed the pool and gave themselves a nice big yard (for the Trees). They seem to have kept the structure more or less as it was (we don't know if they moved walls), but they tore everything out and started over. The ivy's gone and a more attractive façade has taken its place. No bars on these new windows!

125 2nd presents something of a shock.

An alert MBC reader noted the other day that this 1998 modern has been scraped.

When we noted the sale here in October 2011, we did say the home "certainly has location going for it. The quiet South End, west of Manhattan Ave. 100 block. Yum." (See "$4+ in MB.")

It seems that's literally all the buyer saw in it. This became a $4.2m land trade.

4.2 for dirt! Are you ready for a new home with a $6.5-7m valuation? The South End keeps getting pricier.

Our last case is 742 27th, a big (4br/4ba, 3550 sq. ft.), nicely located home with a decent yard and some updates.

In a previous turn on the public market, this one was lovely and eventually sold in a late-emerging bidding war in 2008 for $2.075m.

Last year, it didn't show nearly as well. The 1989 build felt more its age, the edges were much rougher, and, perhaps worst, the once-lovely showpiece of a back yard had been decimated, leaving only a grassy patch and a few pavers. (See "Close the Books (Again) on 742 27th.") OK, loss of a nice garden is just an aesthetic point, but the prior version helped the home sing.

With the home in worse shape, the sellers wound up heavily discounting it to unload it. The new owners picked it up for $1.701m, an 18% discount off 2008. (Interesting since MB's median is off 18% peak-to-2011.)

Now the new owners have set about restyling the house, bringing it to the 21st century. This was always needed, but had been put off. You're now seeing more of a modern "Cape Cod" style coming together, with a sharper roofline, shingles and even a reorientation of the entry all part of the package. (They may be doing more work inside as well; the 80s build included some sunken rooms – once all the rage – and a full modernization would flatten those out.)

Even a costly re-do could bring this home in under $2.1m, and for a fully updated Cape with a nice yard in a nice location, that's a pretty good outcome.

Close the Books on 2509 Laurel

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 06:10:00 +0000

Yes, it was premature to point to 2509 Laurel (4br/3ba, 3650 sq. ft.) as an example of a perfectly priced quick sale in the Tree Section.

Back in September (!) in "Laurel Hit the Sweet Spot," we noted the almost instant deal on the big, remodeled home, which had come out at $1.695m. (Here's our review from the first open house.)

But that was just the first deal, and it flopped.

Thereafter, Laurel sat.

Instead of about 1 DOM, it logged 101.

It's a very big house, redone since its last (2007) purchase, in a location that's walkable to school and town. You might want to update it further (kitchen and master in particular), but nothing's pressing.

There's no yard, really, which was a killer for some buyers.

Once Laurel sat, it sat and sat. The last time we chatted about this one, we opined that we'd suggest offering 1.550 and look to settle at $1.575m.

We didn't represent the buyers, but that's exactly the deal they got: $1.575m.

It's a big comedown for the property, obviously, but one that needs to be measured against a peak-year acquisition, too.

In August 2007, a lesser version of this home was acquired for $1.725m. After that, new flooring was put in, kitchen upgrades, lighting and so forth. Before this recent sale, even more was done to remove all question marks and to make the home turnkey.

But at $1.575m, it's down 9% from 2007 even with the upgrades.

If MB's down 18% from peak, that's not so shocking. It just doesn't look like that quick-strike deal from 100 days ago.

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Other Ways to Look at RE Stats

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 22:51:00 +0000

You'll recall that we recently ran a year-end wrapup describing 2011 sales stats for MB.

In that post, the main findings were:

Sales of SFRs in MB were almost flat (+12) compared to 2010
The median price for SFRs in MB was down 6% from 2010 (we repeat the chart here)
MB's median price for 2011 was the same as 2004's (before adjusting for inflation)

Well, recently someone threw some MB RE stats into our front driveway, packaged in a very snazzy, glossy free real estate publication that you also probably get twice a month. (We kinda like the mag.)

This was the first issue of the new year, so we figured we might see some 2011 wrapup stats for the South Bay.

We did see some stats, and many were flawed. Your blog author went a little bit batty trying to figure out, "What are they trying to tell us here?" Permit a little rant.

The first battery of RE stats appears in an agent's ad early on in the mag. That 2011 wrapup does not provide median price data or anything regarding list/sale prices. The one and only data point on price: "PPF." (Price per foot, typically "price per square foot" or PPSF here at MBC.)

Is that average or median? Doesn't say. (It would matter.)

The "PPF" for MB: $714, which is up 5.90% from 2010, the ad says.

Isn't it curious that MBC reported MB's overall price trend was down 6% year over year, but this one stat showed the city up 6%?

Now, PPSF for a whole city? Combining SFRs and THs? Is that a useful measure? Of course not. PPSF is difficult to use within a neighborhood, and becomes less and less relevant the larger the area. We like to point to PPSF in certain circumstances, and we've even reported on average PPSF for the Tree Section and average PPSF for the Sand Section. But as the measure of a whole market?

We turned our glossy mag to the publisher's note, and found more head-scratching stats.

Reporting region by region for the South Bay, his column contains some data on MB. These are limited to SFRs.

Right away we saw a problem: 321 SFR sales? We've reported 320. In that 321 number, we know there's a duplicate. Uh-oh.

Then there's this: "Average selling price: $1,774,698." Wait: "Average" sale price? Isn't that subject to wild variation in a market like ours when you see lots of high-dollar sales?

Why, yes. That's why you almost never see "average sale price" used.

A friendly agent asked MBC last year for an opinion about the value of "average selling price" versus "median price." Our reply: "average sucks." Here's why.

The first problem is the misleading impression it gives. That figure is 22% higher than the median price for MB. So if you are considering buying in MB and wonder what the "typical" or "average" or "middle of the road" house might cost, median price tells you one thing ($1.450m) and "average" price tells you something rather drastically different ($1.775m). We'll go with median on this one.

And, yes, the "average" price is inflated in this case not just by high-dollar sales like the $10.9m Strand sale reported on the MLS last year. It can also be inflated by duplicates that occasionally appear in the MLS dataset – specifically, that $10.9m Strand sale reported on the MLS. It appears twice. That dupe adds $34k to the "average" selling price – so you have a bad measure made worse by failing to drop out a dupe.

Now consider just 2 off-market sales in MB. No, they're not in the MLS, by definition. But if they had put the $12.25m Strand sale and $16m Hill Section sale from last year (see "2011: A Year of Highs, Part II") onto the MLS, these would have added $87k more to the "average selling price." But they might have bumped up the median by perhaps $5k-10k.

Since we're talking about actual prices, let's bounce ahead to another ad in the mag. This one offers the "median list price" for MB as $1.445m, current as of the first part of January. Hey, at least it's a median, and that number is awfully close to the median sale price for 2011 ($1.450m), so this might actually be a good measure at times.

But really, who cares about asking prices? It's sale prices that matter. So the "list price trend" column of this particular data presentation doesn't impart much info. (MB's "list price trend" is flat/neutral, by this accounting.) And don't even get us started talking about the peculiarities of inventory early in the year – whoops, there we go already.

Now, the relationship of list prices to sale prices would be interesting, right? So back in the publisher's note we found a data point on this.

That's called the "Average Discount (List vs. Sale Price)." The discount is given as -4.55%.

Is that average gap between first list price and final sale price really 4.5%? Wouldn't it be remarkable if that were true? Most homes start out within 5% of their eventual sale price – this must be a market chock full of very smart sellers and agents, not to mention credulous buyers. Does this sound like the market you know?

Frankly, we don't buy it, but explaining why will take another wordy explanation. We'll take a look at how the list/sale (or ask/close) gap can be gamed, and has been, and how "average DOM" (yet another field we found in the mag) can be distorted, in a separate post shortly.

In sum, there are lots of data points you can use to summarize a market. Many, many, many of them tell you almost nothing. Some are actually misleading. (Are we up or down pricewise in the past year? It depends!)

Median prices are probably the best of the bad stats – the worst, that is, except for all of the others. And yet, with data showing MB down last year, we don't see anyone promoting the median price trend for our fair city. They're all pointing to something else instead. Why's that?

False Start at 755 31st

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:46:00 +0000

Nice, big Tree Section homes under $2m – they come and go so quickly sometimes.

In the space of a few days, that happened with 755 31st (4br/5ba, 4050 sq. ft.).

But this time, it wasn't because of a bidding war.

This serious, classy "English Country" remodel on one of the Tree Section's great streets popped up 10 days ago as a short sale at $1.875m. Your blog author toured it and shared info with clients, and the place was slightly crawling with other agents and clients – primed, perhaps, to become the next 800 19th. (See "$1.95m for Pacific 'Sensation.'")

Alas, no.

The property, which is currently rented out, now has been leased to new tenants. Apparently, while that short-sale option was being dangled in front of buyers, it was also up for lease or even a lease-option purchase, and now a straight sale is out of the question.

No bidding war – no nothing.

Cue the guy in the striped shirt throwing the yellow flag in the air: "False Start: Sellers!"

Internet real estate shoppers (know any?) might have seen this property in recent months as an FSBO offering or, in past years, also on Craigslist – always over $2.3m, and often with offers of seller financing or "take over payments" (caveat emptor). There's also a further-back history on the MLS, with the home last being offered at $2.375m in late 2010.

The rapid appearance of the listing at a sub-1.9 price less than 2 weeks ago kindled a profound new interest in the property. Can you really get onto 31st for less than $2m, in a home that's very, very well done – even if it lacks a yard?

That's a nice question – an important question – but it won't, apparently, be answered at 755 31st.

Weekend Opens (1/14-1/15)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 01:21:00 +0000

It's a funny mix this week: A hot Hill property and a new, quick Tree Section spec home leading the news. A few sellers are trying to get the jump on the Spring rush.

But first, let's all send some positive vibes out to our friends and family in the nation's midwest and east, where Winter has finally arrived and the snow is going to start piling up for a while. (This pic is from Chicago.)

We know exactly how they feel. Friday morn was "snow day" at our preschool here, and for the 30 minutes the kids were running around in the white stuff, we had (brief) flashbacks to those long-gone days of shoveling sidewalks, scraping windshields and roaming the neighborhood on foot to help free stranded motorists.

Then the kids went back to their class, and the mercury hit 80 degrees. Ah, January in MB.

To plan your weekend tours, try this Redfin map list of open houses – sort by price or sub-region of MB by clicking the title on a column.

Or click here for the more traditional Beach Reporter list of opens.

As usual, we appreciate it when readers share views on this week's featured properties.

Hill Section

303 Larsson (3br/2ba, 1800 sq. ft.) drew mention at MBC early in the week for its (relatively) low price and (apparently) real promise. If $1.0m seems rare on the Hill, it is, as we explained in "$1 Mill on the Hill."

We can now report that the home does look as good as the pics, shows beautifully, and already has a little wave of offers pouring in. So if you're going to see it, make that no later than Sunday, and if you're going to bid on it, make it now. The seller will respond to offers Monday.

Why the rush? This skinny-lot home offers more than you can get in MB for the price almost anyplace. Start with the fact that there's a non-trifling yard – the 3440 sq. ft. lot is deep, not wide, but deep gives you yard space. The western orientation of the yard means afternoon sun. Great.

The remodel is completely modern and tight. Attractive bamboo flooring is used throughout, the cabinetry, tile and countertops in the kitchen and baths are higher-end and sharp, and the garage has actually been tastefully and completely turned into extra living space with carpeting and storage cabinets. (You see pilates equipment in the listing pics.) Views to the north from the front patio (just off the kitchen) were fun on Friday, with pretty clear skies making the mountains, downtown L.A. and even the Hollywood sign visible.

You want the concerns/reservations/buts? The upside-down layout will be a turnoff for some – there are 2br downstairs apart from the master upstairs, not a family favorite. Plus, those 2br are quite small. The exterior looks better than the 1959 build date suggests, but still needs a refresher. Missed in the interior remodel: The curvy staircase (are those concrete stairs?). And you are on Larsson, the Oak Ave. of the Hills.

No doubt, people are going to make their peace with the "buts" and make a move to try get in quickly. Does that include you?

303 Larsson starts at $1.0m and is open Sunday 1-4pm.

Sand Section

432 23rd Place (3br/3ba, 2125 sq. ft.) is a late-90s TH on an alley near Grandview elementary that has been struggling to gain traction and attention. The current listing is in its fifth month, and a prior try lasted 8 months from Fall 2009 to mid-2010.

The relatively low price ($1.149m) ought to make it a contender, but you can see why buyers have been reluctant. The home feels a bit tired inside and out, and the alley location just can't be an asset.

Though the master's spacious and the baths pretty nice, the kitchen sincerely feels dated after just 15 years, and is oddly walled off from the main living spaces – modern design would have a more welcoming, open flow.

Location near the school and just a short walk to the beach will help. Some day.

432 23rd Place is up at $1.149m and is open Sunday 1-4pm.

Tree Section


1021 33rd St.

1021 33rd (5br/3ba, 3600 sq. ft.) is a cousin of the Speedy Speckies in an unusual location, built out in what must be record time, since the lot sale here just closed in late October.

First things first: Check out that address – the 1000 block of 33rd? Is that East Manhattan? Not quite. This is an odd triangular lot pretty much where Oak meets Ardmore and cars line up to cross Sepulveda or turn left. The bend Ardmore takes before officially becoming 33rd is going to merit a mention later.

The home was put up by the same builder who brought together each of the 6 Speedy Speckies (5 were mentioned in this post), and is owned by the same investment company as 2 of them. It is clearly the better among the cousins, with a superior, different, big layout and without the daring, frilly, even questionable details found in some of the others. As newer Caliterraneans go, it's pretty safe and attractive.

The first-floor living spaces are quite large, built across an L-shaped open floor plan that affords a big up-front living/media room, wide-open separate dining room and a big kitchen/great room in back, opening to the rear yard. (We overheard agents calling it a "fabulous party house" thanks to the spaciousness and flow of the main floor.) Ceilings are coved and shaped in interesting ways. One of the 5br is also downstairs. Most flooring in the common spaces is a hammered stone; a dark-stained hardwood makes up the stairs and media/living room.

Master bedroom at 1021 33rd

Among the upstairs bedrooms, one is a separate suite and 2 share a jack-and-jill bath. All are fairly bright. A large landing area is begging to become an informal kids' living room/play area, nicely out of the flow of the rest of the house.

The master has windows on 3 sides and the best treetop views, roughly to the west, over the greenbelt. The bath is large with a big shower and separate spa tub.

The promise of a 7000+ sq. ft. lot does not seem to result in much extra yard space here – the triangular shape of the plot results in some exterior space around the back patio and another triangle off the driveway. These 2 yard spaces are sort of connected by a narrow sliver of grassy space. They have not fenced off the back yard and, by the look of the landscaping, they may not be planning to. When fencing is (inevitably) put up, the outdoor spaces will feel much smaller.

Location is going to be a challenge. To the positive, you have no neighbors on 2 sides, with a big dropoff off the back of the house to the greenbelt. You're steps (via the greenbelt) from the Manhattan Village mall – movies, dinner or perhaps some electronics shopping (Apple store, Fry's) are all very walkable. All well and good, but Ardmore is a speedway for several blocks before this house, and the bend seems abrupt and almost blind for cars coming around and popping up in front of this new home. A circular driveway is meant to make it easier to get in and out, but it will be harrowing on occasion. It's hard to even walk across 33rd without a flash of worry.

The lot at 1021 33rd was purchased quickly in October 2011 for $680k, and the new house was offered initially in mid-December for $1.699m. At the time, that list price was undercutting most of the Speedy Speckies – all of them smaller by 400 or so square feet. Alas, the plans for 1021 33rd changed, space was added and (we're told) more expensive finishes and other kinds of extras (pre-wiring for sound, security, gates, built-in BBQ, etc.) were brought in. These changes raised the asking price $400k.

1021 33rd starts (this time) at $2.1m and is open Sun. 1-4pm.

Bonus Speedy Speckie update: Of the 6, one continues to be in escrow (2516 Pine) in a deal first posted in September 2011 (see "Your Ex(spec)tations on 2516 Pine"). It's hard to remember, but 2516 Pine first came out at $2.2m last May.

Meanwhile, the ~~cheapest~~ least pricey of the bunch (3613 Maple at $1.599m) posted a deal this week.

East MB

1305 8th (6br/4ba, 4100 sq. ft.) got a mention here last week and is open again. It's got some new would-be competition (see below).

1305 8th is a big home with a good-size yard on one of those big East MB lots. The home looks and feels much like its late-1980s vintage but has been remodeled in some important ways since its 2006 acquisition.

Though very livable as-is, there are rough and worn edges here and there, and lots of parts still demand a 21st-century update some day, most notably the master bath. Exterior paint seems faded and the back yard a bit scrappy. It's pretty clear what needs to be done to improve and polish up the house, but the work needs not be terribly expensive.

Last week, we called this one "compelling" at $1.725m given the lot and home size. (It last traded in June 2006 at $1.850m.)

New to the market is a neighbor up the hill by the water tower, 1447 8th (5br/4ba, 4225 sq. ft.), which won't be publicly open till next week. It currently presents no competition at all at $1.869m for a 1991 home that needs almost everything to be redone. That one will need to drop, however, and could pose a challenge for the same buyers as 1305 8th if it comes down starkly enough.

For now, 1305 8th stands almost alone, priced at $1.725m and open Sun. 1-4pm.

Shorter by the Sea

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 19:57:00 +0000

A whole week has gone by since 130 19th came down $700k and went short.

What, no offers yet?

What to do, then? How about a re-list?

That was this morning's resolution to the problem of how to build interest and generate activity around a 6-month-old listing with a new price and situation.

At least they cut $100k at the same time. Once upon a time, someone said that a $100k cut makes it a whole new property. (Strange but true.)

So 19th is now at $2.695m, barely above the relatively rock-bottom price once paid for Reagan's Suit (121 17th) back in June 2010 ($2.6m). That was the cheapest 100-block/teen-streets land sale in recent years – though the buyers switched it up and used the structure for a cool remodel, defying expectations.

Can you actually get 130 19th for $2.7 or less? That will ultimately be up to the bank.

At this price point for 100-block dirt, buyers would also be looking at the slightly larger lot at 117 30th (3100 sq. ft. and on the north side, versus 2700 sq. ft. and the south side for 130 19th). After almost 6 months of not selling last year, 30th is newly back at $2.699m. (That one's a standard sale.)

Either would make a good building site for personal or spec construction; which will it be?

Interestingly, 30th is currently showing 7 DOM on Redfin for the new listing, but 175 CDOM ("combined days on market") via the regular MLS. That's because 83 days, not 90 days, elapsed between the canceled listing from last year and the restart in 2012. The re-list rules count CDOM forward from an expired or canceled listing if fewer than 90 days toll between entries.

It looks like Redfin's system – great as it is – can't (currently) bring CDOM into the display of listing info. The Redfin bots will tell you 130 19th is a brand-new listing, even though we all know better.

Tough Cases, Early Cuts

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:57:00 +0000

If your listing wasn't selling last year, keeping it on the market through the holidays amounts to a little plea with fate: "Please, let someone take notice."

Now it's January, you can almost see the Super Bowl from here, and you know that a rush of inventory (i.e., competition) awaits. It's time to make a play with a cut. Maybe that will draw some notice.

Here's a partial list of recent chops following that theme.

3617 Pacific (4-6br/5ba, 2800 sq. ft.) is a custom home, really different, but highly challenged by a location at the corner of busy Pacific and Rosecrans. When it debuted at $1.7m over 10 months ago, it seemed the sellers were more focused on the home's impressive features than its location – but that wasn't how buyers reacted.

In last February's review, while praising the home's "surprising... classy Spanish+modern vibe," we also said "[t]his one's got a long adventure ahead." That's certainly been true. With a new cut to $1.425m, it's becoming interesting. But what about the substantially bigger homes on Walnut near Rosecrans – location-challenged, too, but not like this – that just went for $1.340m (3525 Walnut) and $1.435m (3521 Walnut)? Still more adventure ahead on Pacific.

724 10th (8br/8ba, 7000 sq. ft.) in the Hills offers a giant, 10,500 sq. foot lot along a dropping slope, so that the views just open up to the south and west.

Problem is, there's a house on that lot in a Southwestern style that is a strikeout for most buyers, in condition the listing delicately says has "tremendous potential to upgrade," and the home largely fails to capitalize on the view potential of the lot – except for views from the 2 master bath showers (!) and the ladder-accessible roof.

This one launched in August at $5.690m and has just chopped to $4.895m, increasingly posing the question: What's the dirt worth?

1205 23rd St. (5br/5ba, 3500 sq. ft.) is a fairly large, newer (2002) home which has been vacant for 5 years due to messy litigation.

We warned potential buyers of the home's history, where a cloud on title had nixed a purchase attempt in 2007 and left the buyers homeless. (See "A Cloud Over 1205 23rd.")

The bank selling this home as an REO seems to understand that the stigma on the property requires a substantial discount over any comps. The most recent cut brings it to $1.299m, beckoning for some intrepid buyers to try their luck. We'll wish them luck, too – it can only go better this time than last.

222 Dianthus (3br/2ba, 2725 sq. ft.) actually had a deal post in November, but it didn't pan out. We've said of this one: "[it] is really not much as a home, a 60s original with some updates here and there, including a kitchen remodel that's less than 20 years old." The upside-down layout would be justified if the views were better, but regardless it's hard to see a master sharing its bath with the upstairs living spaces like you have here.

There's a history of overreaching at Dianthus: $2.399m in late 2007, $1.875m in 2011. The newest cut to $1.599m comes with a change to the description: "Seller wants offers." Don't all sellers?

1623 6th (6br/4ba, 4950 sq. ft.) came out in mid-October, seeking buyers who want an embarrassment of space plus a yard and don't mind paying nearly $2m for a home that requires refreshing, even with the remodeling work the current owners have put in. (Mainly cherry wood-type flooring everywhere.)

1623 6th started at $1.859m, came down some to $1.779m and then drew a competitor: 1648 8th (5br/4ba, 4950 sq. ft.), literally the same house but without the updates, now at $1.424m. (See "Battle of the Giant 90s Homes.")

6th is still the better of the 2 thanks to the updates, but another hundred has come off it – now at $1.679m, a $250k premium for the difference in condition. Good luck with that.

Even Strand homes can have challenges, folks.

There's the 80s penthouse condo at 808 The Strand (3br/3ba, 2875 sq. ft.), which emerged in October at $4.9m to general – if polite – derision, but is now down $900k to $3.995m.

And 3308 The Strand (technically 3309 Ocean) has come all the way down to $5.9m after a start in March last year at $6.590m (it was re-listed in June).

This one seems to still be fighting the battle to be different from the most recent 5-ish Strand sales: 3112 The Strand, which went for $5.350m in August, and 2504 The Strand, sold for $5.150m in October.

Well, yes, it's different, but those sales are clearly a drag. Now that 3308 is in the fives, the question is how far down into the fives it goes.

$1 Mill on the Hill

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 01:11:00 +0000

It's not often that you'll find a cheap home in the Hill Section. The words don't fit together well.

But this week brings a rare $1m listing of a livable – actually remodeled – SFR.

The new listing is 303 Larsson (3br/2ba, 1800 sq. ft.), popping up Sunday at $1.0m.

What you expect is the 1950s vintage of the original home and the skinny, small lot (3430 sq. ft.) in a row of several smaller lots. And you know the location is on Larsson, last street before Sepulveda – although this one's on the "right" side of Larsson (west).

What you don't expect – and which will create a little buzz around 303 Larsson – is a recently remodeled home with hardwood floors, a nice and modern kitchen, redone baths and plenty of square footage. All that plus a little yard that might even be larger than some Tree Section grass patches.

We'll get you more on this one after a tour, but for now let's look at the listing in context.

Most recent sale of a comparable nature: 511 Dianthus (3br/2ba, 1900 sq. ft.), a 60s box that needed refreshing, which sold for $1.030m in April 2010.

As we noted in "Reboot, Retry, Succeed" (March 2010), that one missed the market horribly, starting out in March 2008 at $1.429m before renting out during the market's dive in April 2009. It was only upon returning in a different environment, and with a much different price, that this one found buyers and clocked in a bit over $1m.

How rare are Hill Section sales under $1m?

The total number of livable SFRs (not land purchases) sold since 2003 for less than $1m: 5.

Just five. They are:

1022 Duncan Place got $850k last year

1022 Duncan Place (3br/2ba, 1700 sq. ft., 4000 sq. ft. lot) is the most recent, a smallish home that needed work and which was first offered in late 2010 at $1.025m.

It sold for a lot less in April 2011: $850k. It's now deep into that much-needed remodel. Not much you can do to improve the location, though – Duncan Place is essentially an alley.

505 Anderson (4br/2ba, 1850 sq. ft.), a 60s fixer on a lot slightly smaller than 303 Larsson's at 3250 sq. ft. – sold for $825k in Feb. 2009.

400 Larsson got $985k in '06.

400 Larsson (3br/2ba, 1550 sq. ft.) (pictured), a 70s house with Tudor-ish flavor and some updates that sold for $985k in Dec. 2006. This is the "oldest" sub-$1m sale by a lot. Note that this one's on the "wrong" side of Larsson.

402 Larsson (there's that street again), a short sale of a home we had called "flawed" and "crusty" here while it tried to find its market from 2007 ($1.1m) down to the closed sale in June 2009.

402 Larsson was the low sale of the year 2009 at $816k.

1100 John

1100 John (3br/2ba, 1550 sq. ft.), an older cottage that backs up onto a new commercial building and is only steps to MBB. This one fetched $975k in August 2008 and was our low sale for that year in the Hills.

Save for these 2006-2011 sub-$1m sales, there's nothing until you go back to November 2003, when 1019 8th (3br/2ba, 1700 sq. ft.) traded for $975k. That, as you may note, was a long time ago.

Unofficial entrant in the SFRs-at-or-under-$1m list: 234 Larsson (3br/3ba, 2300 sq. ft.) sold for $1.0m in Oct. 2010 as a short sale – a failed flip from too late in the last upcycle. This home is actually a TH that was serially listed among the SFRs for whatever reason. (Note: the Redfin link there goes to an erroneous "pending" listing that's stuck in MLS limbo. The home – just a few steps from 303 Larsson – did sell.)

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Hat tip to commenter tabithamadison for the inspiration for our headline!

Weekend Opens (1/7-1/8)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 16:41:00 +0000

Did you catch all the excitement around the new year's first big storm-driven waves?

News choppers hovering at dawn? Do we really need this? Maybe once, by choice, we could sleep past 6:30? (Here's KTLA's photo from Friday morn of "big waves" in MB.)

What we got to see of the waves midday Friday was sloppy, mushy and devoid of humans, but here's hoping you had a chance to enjoy something better.

In a way, the first storm of the season is an apt metaphor. We see a first, mushy wave of RE listings rolling in already, each with an odd story to tell, timing hard to figure, something curious to see.

There are just 3 public opens new to MBC this weekend, all of which we got to see and share here. More holdovers are also looking for attention after a solid 2 weeks of near-zero open houses.

To plan this weekend's tours, try this Redfin map list of open houses – sort by price or sub-region of MB by clicking the title on a column.

Or click here for the more traditional Beach Reporter list of opens.

As always, we appreciate it when readers see these homes and offer opinions here at MBC.

East MB

1305 8th (6br/4ba, 4100 sq. ft.) is a big home with a good-size yard on one of those big East MB lots – in fact, the 7600 sq. ft. plot is a nudge over the "standard" large lot size of 7500.

The home looks and feels much like its late-1980s vintage but has been remodeled in notable ways since its 2006 acquisition. The first floor has bumpy/distressed hickory pecan hardwood flooring in most areas, the kitchen has modern countertops and appliances and a new wet bar was built into the family room/great room. (Cabinets in the kitchen are original but custom painted.)

Did we mention 6br and 4100 sq. ft.? This is a lot of space to spread out into, with 5 of those bedrooms upstairs (2 of those are set apart in a separate area up a few stairs in front over the garage). The kitchen/great room area is vast and the formal living spaces, while tucked away in their own part of the first floor, are substantial as well.

The back yard is not as huge as you might guess with this lot size, but there's more than enough space for a good-size patio (with built-in BBQ) right off the great room plus a lower level yard with grass and a large paved area down a few steps in back.

With all of this interior space, of course the master is huge. The walk-in closet with skylight could sleep a couple of people. And the master bath could host gym equipment – almost.

The house is very livable as-is, but there are rough and worn edges here and there, and lots of parts demand a 21st-century update some day, most notably the master bath. Exterior paint seems faded and the back yard a bit scrappy. It's pretty clear what needs to be done to improve and polish up the house, but the work needs not be terribly expensive.

For the size, it's compelling at $1.725m, a popular price point with little inventory. The home last traded in June 2006 at $1.850m, then there were remodeling expenses, so there's something of a rewind here reflecting the market's changes since then.

1305 8th starts at $1.725m and is open Sun. 1-4pm.

1512 Wendy Way (4br/2ba, 1650 sq. ft.) is a classic Liberty Village cottage with added-on space in back giving it 4 legit bedrooms. The home's main claim to fame is that it's nearly the cheapest listing in MB and certainly the most home for the money at the list price of $799k. People who consider MB to be outside their budget may give this one a look.

The listing notes the "[m]id-century charm throughout," which is a nice way of saying much of the house is original or nearly so – the kitchen boasts faux-marble formica counters, dated wallpaper abounds and all the cabinetry we noted throughout is plain and original.

To the positive, the living room at the entry is painted brightly and with some slick staging, it sets a great mood that makes you consider the potential for the whole place.

Sure, the layout's choppy, the 4th br upstairs doesn't have its own bath, the yard is smallish and everything needs to be updated at some point, but this is what you get for an entry-level home. Did we mention that it backs up to Aviation? Compromises, compromises. It'll work for someone.

1512 Wendy was offered last year for as much as $895k, but is up now at $799k and is open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

Hill Section

644 MBB #10 (2br/2ba, 850 sq. ft.) normally would not make the MBC roundup, but with little inventory in town and this unit's shrimpy $599k asking price, we decided to give it a look and a mention.

This 2-section, late-60s condo building with around 20 units seems not to get a lot of love in the form of upkeep.

Inside, the unit is a clean, but preserved original with dated kitchen and baths. The main living room – which must serve as common space and eating area – feels pretty large, while the alley kitchen offers the minimum. You have to love the rock fireplace and somewhat stylized woodwork. They give you that old-MB, throwback feeling.

The second bedroom with windows along MBB also seemed dark on a bright afternoon. Bonus: Laundry has been installed in the unit (in that 2nd br) – no trudging off to the shared laundry room.

The unit's up front, bordering MBB, and that means some traffic noise. We could not assess the traffic noise, though, because of the pounding rave music from the downstairs unit during our tour. Ah, communal living. Yellow flag.

A neighboring unit that seemed a bit more upgraded (#11) is in escrow now, last at $575k – that deal has been pending for 2 months, but it's one to watch.

644 MBB #10 starts at $599k and is open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

Shortie By the Sea

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 18:33:00 +0000

What is it about 19th St. this past year?

Already there's a short sale pending in the 300 block east of Highland on 19th (329 19th).

Now another emerges in the 100 block?

130 19th is not a new listing, exactly. It logged about 6 months at notably unrealistic prices, beginning at $3.5m in July last year.

What's new is that this Strand-close, beach-close scraper has suddenly dived to $2.795m and has become a short sale.

That 3.5 price always struck us as one borne of overconfidence.

The sellers seemed to be saying, "Yep, we've got a rare gem here, and someone is really going to pay us for it." When the price hit $3.2m, that seemed to be about as generous as they were going to get.

But things change. It's down $700k from the start and short.

The home itself is gamely touted as a potential remodel, whereby one might take advantage of the "shorter front setback" – that is, you could continue to poke out in front of your neighbors and enjoy better views as a result, if you refashion the current (1939) house. Maybe, but not likely. Didn't we already call this a scraper?

The new 2.8ish price immediately calls to mind 2 recent 100-block trades in the teen streets nearby.

Those would be the Summer 2010 sales at:

121 17th (aka"Reagan's Suit"), obtained for a (relative) song at $2.6m before a modernistic remodel saved the 80s wreck. (See "Reagan Comes to the 21st Century.")

117 17th, currently a building site, purchased off-market for $3.050m (yep, $450k more than the neighbor where they actually made use of the structure).

The short-sale offering price for 130 19th falls right between those fairly recent sales.

It also shows some welcome/necessary downward movement from 132 20th (5br/5ba, 4000 sq. ft.), a different kind of 80s wreck that's being gutted and redone now. (For more on 132 20th and other "teen streets" sales, see "Action in the Teens" from last August.)

20th sold for $3.3m in April last year, reflecting the utility of the structure to the new owners. What was the land value there? Maybe 2.7-2.8?

Meantime over at 19th, it seems that a kind of urgency is going to help drive a deal. You might bet on a pretty good dirt price for the 100 block when all is said and done.

4th Qtr. 2011: Slowest Since '08

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 22:55:00 +0000

A few times during 2011 we noted that the sales pace was a little above 2010's.

And that wound up true at year end, as we noted yesterday, with 319 SFR sales hitting the MLS citywide, compared to 308 the year before.

But it was also true that Q4 2011 was a bit slower, year over year, than the prior quarters, measured by closed sales.

In fact, the period of Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2011, saw the fewest closed sales since Q4 2008 with 57 in MB overall, and 37 west of Sepulveda. (Click this graphic to enlarge.)

Both the west-of-Sepulveda and citywide totals were down by 13 sales from 2010, and just a little higher than 2007's totals of 52 overall and 33 west of the highway.

Look back further into the bubble years and even before – all the way back to 2000 – and we see that Q4 2011 was the third-weakest of the past 12 years. The three weakest: 1) 2008, 2) 2007, 3) 2011.

The first 6 years of this century were all markedly busier in Q4 – with 74 sales in 2004 citywide, for instance, and a peak of 118 hit twice, in both 2000 and 2001. That's more than twice the number of Q4 sales that we just saw last year, and that was when people actually had to pay interest on mortgages.

So much for the quiet Fall/Winter season. Maybe it's more of a recent invention.

In defense of the local market's performance late last year, it could be said that there's a goodly amount of pent-up demand – frustrated buyers who would help absorb quality product in roughly the $1.5-$2.2m price range. But there ain't much to be had.

Were there to be inventory to satisfy all these buyers in the wings, would we see a minor frenzy in the market? TBD. How many actual buyers are there? We'll begin to find out this Spring.

2011 Wrap: More Sales, 2004 Median

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 17:10:00 +0000

Welcome back and happy new year to you.

With 2011 behind us, we'll begin a series of looks back at the data for local real estate.

For most of last year, starting with a lookback at Q4 2010, we observed and reported data showing that the MB real estate market was fairly stable, but prices were creeping slightly lower overall. At the same time, paradoxically, the very high end was shooting higher.

As we now look back at the whole of 2011, these trends were consistent across the year. The number of sales was up a tad from 2010, but the median price for SFRs in MB overall was down 5%.

Interesting, is it not, that the earliest reports were consistent with the full year's data?

Most remarkably, the 2011 median price for SFRs in all of MB equaled the median for 2004. In both years, the median price was $1.450m. (That's in non-adjusted dollars, of course.)

That means last year, pricewise, was a slight tick down from the year we all recognize as the recent "bottom" for local real estate: 2009.

The 2011 median also means MB prices are down 18% from the peak, comparing full calendar years.

In a real estate environment in which drops of 30% or more are not unusual all over the nation, an 18% drop still reflects solid staying power. However, it's not as delightful as last year's report that MB was down 14% peak-to-trough.

Now, 2004 prices in 2011?

Here at MBC, we began talking about how we were "living in 2004 prices" back in 2009, based partly on medians and more particularly on same-house sales (bought in 2004 and resold in 2008-2009). That hasn't been as frequent an observation here recently, but the data tell us that it may be time to revive that.

For some context on median prices in MB during the bubble years, we looked back at a Nov. 2008 post, "How're Median Prices Doing?" This chart is from that original (click to enlarge).

As with this post, the data source is the MLS, though in 2008 we were looking at monthly median prices and using a 6-month moving average to chart the inflation of median prices from 2000-2008.

Notable there is the rapid inflation in prices during the whole year of 2004. It's a big step up from Jan. 2004 to Jan. 2005.

Coming back to 2011, the total number of sales last year in all of MB was 320, or 12 more than 2010.

You can call that more or less flat, but it's a decent pickup from both 2008 and 2009. As our chart here shows, you have to reach back to the final bubble years of 2006-07 to find more sales in a calendar year.

It would seem Q4 was a bit slower than last year in terms of closed sales, because at our midyear and Q3 check-ins, the 2011 sales pace was at 16 and 18 higher than last year.

One of the first startling things to see in the raw data is that 80 sales were at or under $1m.

That's a notable 33% rise in $1m-and-under sales from just 2010, when the figure was 61. It's also double the number seen in 2008, and 11 higher than the bottomed-out year of 2009.

In fact, the last time we saw 80 sales at or below $1m was in 2004 (there's that year again!), a time when total sales volume citywide was 36% higher.

Just one year before, however, in 2003, the $1m-and-under category was comparatively gigantic at 181 sales (on total volume of 477 sales). That's another way of seeing how the rapid inflation of prices during 2004 affected overall sales data.

We'll continue examining the data for 2011 in a series of upcoming posts, starting with a look at west-of-Sepulveda data separate from the rest of MB.

2011: A Year of Highs, Part II

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 14:37:00 +0000

Now let's wrap up our look at the year that was, with more record-breaking sales in MB's prestige areas – the Strand, the Sand and up the Hill. (Click here for our first installment.)

Sand Section

There are a few high-dollar sales in the Sand worth a mention here, each setting a record of its own in 2011.

The most publicity has probably been generated around 1600 The Strand (3br/5ba, 5225 sq. ft.), the architectural modern fairly near the pier that sold for $10.9m before an expensive renovation began.

Here at MBC, you'll recall the vaguely seductive video tour that hawked 1600 The Strand (see "You Sexy Thing"). That little snippet became a modest internet sensation.

In the end – with all the work he's undertaking – who knows, the new owner of 1600 The Strand may wind up into the deal well over $12m.

1600 The Strand holds the MLS record for a Strand sale at that $10.9m figure.

But someone paid more than that for an existing home in 2011: 1800 The Strand (5br/7ba, 5725 sq. ft.). This one quietly sold off-market in late March this year for $12.250m.

This year's sale at 1800 is a markup of $600k (+5%) over August 2009, when the same home traded for $11.65m.

With a 12+ trade, this one tops out the Sand Section sales of the year by a goodly margin, and sets a new record for a home on a standard-size lot on MB's Strand.

Finally, we'll turn our attention to a Sand Section plateau sale that hit another record of sorts.

Here it's not a new high for the total home price, but for PPSF, which is a way of saying they got more for the house than anyone else had before.

The home is 445 33rd (5br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft.), which we've been openly enthusiastic about since the home debuted on the market in Summer 2010.

We recently noted that the 2 highest-priced sales on the plateau (400 blocks of the Sand, 27th-35th St.) were at $2.989m and $3.0m right at the end of the bubble – Summer 2006 and Feb. 2007. At 445 33rd, the first listing was over $3.1m, but the recent off-market sale came in at $2.775m. (See "Beachy-Modern Marks New Plateau High.")

The PPSF: $772/PSF, far exceeding the $703/PSF on the $2.989m sale from the bubble years, and the 600-ish prices seen more commonly among higher-end plateau homes. Wow.

Hill Section

As we move up to the ocean-view parts of the Hill Section, the word "wow" is really going to feel lame for the purpose.

That's because the highest-priced sale in MB this year was even higher than 1800 The Strand. According to our research, it's the highest price paid for residential real estate in MB ever. (Our search went back to Jan. 2000.)

The new record-holder is 853 3rd at an eye- popping $16.0m. The sale closed off-market in late September.

Before that sixteen-point-o figure was hit, 1800 The Strand had held the record high – for what turned out to be 6 months. (Interestingly, the same agent represented the sellers on both of this year's top sales, both off-market deals.)

We find just 4 homes in MB that sold for more than $10m in the past 11 years – 3 of them this year, all mentioned in this story.

The custom-built, high-style home at 853 3rd was completed in 2007 and has 6br, 7ba and 8100 sq. ft. Big but, no, not a totally ginormous house.

The lot is an 11,400 sq. ft. corner on a low-traffic street with very good ocean views. The architect's page, which features a thorough slideshow of high-quality photos (that link goes offsite), notes that the L-shaped home was built for "seamless indoor/outdoor living" – a nice grassy area and large pool take advantage of the large lot.

We're a bit late to bring out this story, which was rumored all Summer and closed in September. We wanted to bring you more than just a number. We've now pieced together a bit more of the story to understand the "why" behind that enormous purchase price.

In short, the owners who custom-built the house for themselves had no real interest in selling. This became their major asset once buyers took an interest.

True, they toyed with offering the home as a pocket listing in 2010, got a couple of showings, but then decided that, no, they weren't selling. Nonetheless, more and more buyers started inquiring. The owners wouldn't do much in response.

And then came that one buyer with an absolute must-have attitude toward the house. There was a first offer: Rejected. Another, bigger offer: Rejected. And over weeks and months, mountains of money were being put on top of the mountains already on the table. The third time was the charm – the parties made a deal at an unheard-of, unpredictable, almost outlandish figure. By holding out, and by truly not wanting to sell, the owners got at least a few million extra.

Is the home "worth" $16m? By one definition of market economics – a willing buyer and a willing seller agreeing on price – sure. By any other measure, probably not. (Really: $1975/PSF? Has there ever been a more irrelevant PPSF figure?)

But if you're asking whether the right value was $16m, maybe you're asking the wrong question. The buyer won the prize, the object of affection. Mission accomplished. And a new record for MB that should stand for quite a while.

2011: A Year of Highs, Part I

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 15:38:00 +0000

Real estate news is mixed nationally, but one thing stands out as we start to look back at 2011 in MB: There were some ceiling-busting deals.

Let's take a little tour over the next couple days. And here's a hint: We're saving the biggest news for Part II.

Tree Section

If you think Tree Section sales over $4 million are at all routine, check yourself. There have been a few, at the lower end of the 4s – mainly new construction in 2008, to be specific.

But this year...

533 15th (6br/6ba, 5300 sq. ft.) sold for $4.7m.

Is this home worthy of being the priciest-ever sale in the MB Trees? Well, one man's opinion is: Yes. (And this guy is reputed to be a bear.)

We've offered lots of superlatives on this home, calling it "simply one of the greatest homes in MB," suggesting that it "could give a pulse to a dead man [or] bring songs to the lips of a cynic."

We have further called it "a monster, must-have house." (See "A Saturday Treat" from April.)

Martyrs hill, a big lot (7700 sq. ft.), a crisp, classic Cape Cod with ocean views and tons of common space... The home absolutely sings.

Sure, there was plenty of tut-tutting among agents (confidentially, of course) that it's a crazy price, but this is what happens with must-have properties, isn't it?

The sellers hold out, the buyers start to think, "What if we don't get it? We must!" And after that...

For more on some other $4m+ sales, see: "$4+ in MB" from October.

East MB

Only once before has a sale in East MB eclipsed the recent sale at 116 Terraza Place. The home's got 7br/9ba, 10,000 sq. ft. of living space and a half acre of land, including the driveway.

The recent closed sale price of $4.9m was notable in one sense for the dramatic contrast with the spec build's start price in the $10m-$11m range. (See "11 – No, Wait, $5m – or Less.")

But it was also simply one of the very highest-priced transactions ever east of the highway.

The only MLS-reported sale we can find that came in higher was at 1240 5th St., a comparably sized (6br/8ba, 10,000 sq. ft. on 1/4 acre) home built in 2003 along one of East MB's best streets – a private drive that ends in a cul-de-sac a few doors away.

The "French Villa" (per the old listing) was offered for lease at $25k/mo. or for sale at about $6m starting in June 2005 – bubbly times. It wound up selling for $5.860m in May 2006.

So while Terraza was built to beat that record, it fell about $1m short.

Tomorrow, we'll look at the Sand and Hill Sections, and we'll bring out that big news we alluded to earlier.

Christmas Rush

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 16:34:00 +0000

The last couple of days before Christmas, you may have been running from one store to another, filling a couple of final needs.

Other folks were flinging purchase offers and signing contracts.

One new deal posted at 2509 Laurel (4br/3ba, 3650 sq. ft.) on the 23rd. Finally someone may be ready to make that huge house (with no yard) their home.

After a quick deal in mid-September that ultimately flopped, Laurel hung around a total of nearly 3 months. That might not have seemed so long if not for the early deal, and the widespread knowledge that this price point is almost devoid of inventory. It just took a while to make a new match.

Laurel was always listed at $1.695m, but as time rolled on and the year's end approached, we started to get the sense that it could and maybe should trade notably lower. TBD.

Another Christmas sale... another 25 at the start – that's 2517 Vista (3br/3ba, 2125 sq. ft.), which also posted a deal 2 days before Santa came.

It's a fairly large SFR on a half lot with surprisingly good ocean views, just steps from Grandview school.

The home sports a 1998 build date – reflecting a top-floor addition then – and now could use some updates. It's also got a quite unusual layout, with each of 3br on separate levels.

This was one of the longer-running listings in MB, with 8+ months on market, when a buyer knocked. The most recent cut, in October, brought the price to $1.499m.

Those were the deals closest to the holiday. There were 4 more posted on the 21st:

1717 Pine (4br/2ba, 2325 sq. ft.) is one we called "a difficult house," and that was with some reserve. It had been added onto here and there oddly, with one odd feature being 2 upstairs bedrooms sharing a bath – a "Jack and Jill" master? Last at $1.295m.

2708 Ardmore (4br/3ba, 1850 sq. ft.) is a short sale that we recently said was "shaping up to be the deal of the year in the Trees," listed at $899k. Not bad for a decent place west of the highway. Now we'll see what the bank will accept to avoid foreclosure. (There were NODs on the property, adding urgency to the sale.)

1204 17th (3br/1ba, 1100 sq. ft.) is a late-1940s original on a cul-de-sac street backing up to a sprawling hotel.

We like the forthright reference to the "retro style kitchen [with] green formica and tiled backsplashes." Retro, that's the thing. This one lasted less than a month at $825k.

The dark horse in this group, the surprise, is 225 13th (4br/4ba, 3200 sq. ft.), which we had given up on. The listing went on hold in August and had been so notably overpriced that we didn't imagine much of a future there.

Alas, 13th emerged from "hold" limbo to post a deal. Now's the chance to see what becomes of a home that's got the benefit of being right in the very thick of downtown, but somewhat smaller than other walkstreet, ocean-view homes – on a less-than-full size, 2000 sq. ft. lot.

For the longest time, they thought they'd sell this with a 3 in front, asking as much as $3.350m. The last list price was $2.975m, still awfully close to 3. How will they wrap up that one?

A Cloud Over 1205 23rd

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 22:00:00 +0000

For the past month or so, a newer (2002) East MB home has been on the market and making fairly steady cuts. It's an REO newly priced at $1.378m that will begin to look compelling for an ever-larger number of buyers, even if it does back up onto Marine.

But for anyone who gets closer, there are reasons to be wary and to do some extra due diligence.

The home is 1205 23rd St. (5br/5ba, 3500 sq. ft.), which – we kid you not – has not been lived in for 5 years.

5 years, no people. In a house. There's a yellow flag.

The short version of the answer to "why?" is that the property has been caught for years in a web of litigation over an investment fraud scheme. A former owner of the house was alleged to have lured people into bogus investments and frittered away their money. (We're not going to get into guilt or innocence here.)

A group of onetime investors/marks sought to reclaim their losses in part by making a claim against the home – dating back to 2006-07.

From then till now, the property faced a situation known in the business as a "cloud on title," which can be translated as: You can't buy it, because we're not completely sure who owns it.

The title situation was somewhat more bizarre because the former owner actually lost it back to the bank in early 2007, before it hit the market then as an REO. (An REO in 2007? That was new – then.) You might think that a repo would wipe out other claims on the property, but, as we discuss below, you can't be so sure.

The good news is that, we are told – and we emphasize here, we are told – that the title problem has now been "fixed," and the property can transfer to a new buyer. You can also infer that from the fact that the home was left vacant for so long after a failed transaction in 2007, and now has been brought to the public again. But you really should be sure. The listing agent was not authorized to answer MBC's questions in any detail.

There's only one way to be certain. You need a title company to promise to issue a title insurance policy on the property. A little over 4 years back, when it was last for sale, no one would – with horrid consequences.

Unlucky past: Whoever zeroes in on 1205 23rd and makes a deal should learn from the situation faced by the last buyers to try, back in 2007.

Those buyers sold their home in order to move up to 23rd. They put both homes – their old home and their intended new one – under contract at the same time. As with a lot of these simultaneous sale/purchase agreements, perfect timing was essential. They would close on both transactions at the same time and move to the new home.

Most unfortunately, the difficulty of dealing with the cloud on title for 1205 23rd did not become clear until the would-be buyers had committed, during escrow, to selling their other MB home with the release of sellers' contingencies.

If you're following closely, you're asking: If there was a problem with the purchase of 23rd, couldn't they cancel the sale of their home and stay put?

No. Not the way the transaction was managed, and with the buyers' agent on holiday at a critical juncture. Once the would-be buyers of 23rd had released contingencies on their old home, they had cleared the way for new people to acquire it, and there was no going back on the sale.

The bank that had repossessed the property seemed to know there was a potential problem. The defrauded investors had filed their initial claim (in the form of a lis pendens) before the bank foreclosed on the former owner of 23rd. The investors believed their claim would survive a foreclosure. So the bank asked the new buyers, in 2007, to sign an unusual agreement absolving the bank of any problems that the buyers might face from the lis pendens. (Red flag.) The buyers only wiggled out of their agreement with the bank when they found that no title company would issue an insurance policy on 23rd – the fine print required a title policy to be issued.

So the "buyers" sold their home and were set adrift. Adding to the personal trauma, they had a very young child at home and a newborn delivered during the final days of the escrow period. They embarked on a period of unplanned renting, finding their next home months later. This time, they represented themselves in the purchase.

What it all means today: Anyone looking to buy 1205 23rd deserves clear answers to some core questions.

For instance: What was the nature of the alleged scheme by the former owner, was he found responsible, has he paid off his claimants?

Also: Have the former investors released any claim to 1205 23rd? Will the bank that owns it provide any reassurance on this point? Will a title company issue a policy on it?

The former would-be buyer of 23rd had this to say to MBC: "[I]f I knew half of what was behind this home when looking at it, I would have never entered escrow."

Here's hoping the next buyers know everything behind it, that they go in eyes wide open and that they get the information they need before proceeding.

Battle of the Giant 90s Homes

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 19:04:00 +0000

If you're willing to go east of Sepulveda, you probably know that one thing you'll find is a bigger lot. MB's biggest "standard" size lots – 7500 sq. ft. – are east of the highway.

Here and there, you'll also find gigantic houses using up those lots.

Currently there are 2 huge homes by the same builder, with the same floorplan, built in 1990, up on the market at the same time – at very different prices.

Which one will sell first? Battle's on.

1623 6th (6br/4ba, 4950 sq. ft.) is the first one that hit the radar, coming to market in mid-October.

In our review then, we called it "a never-ending amalgam of spaces that somehow still retains a substantial back yard.... If you need lots of space and grass, this may be your place."

The home has been updated a bit, with cherry wood-type flooring throughout the house, including bedrooms.

How do you use 4950 sq. ft. in a house? For one thing, the first floor features a huge wet bar just off the living area. And the master bedroom is "so huge, several people could live there – or, with the space tweaked a bit, at least 2 could play racquetball," as we noted earlier this year.

1623 6th started at $1.859m, which we called "ambitious" at the time, and is down some to $1.779m now. It's very unusual to see a PPSF near $350 like this.

Also in the 1600 block, but 2 blocks over, is 1648 8th (5br/4ba, 4950 sq. ft.), with the same exterior design, similar-looking layout (from what we can see by the pics) and a large pool, rather than grass, using up the back yard space.

One way they use the extra interior space: A big piano on the 2nd floor landing – with enough room for seating for a small concert around it.

This home just hit the market this week, right before Christmas – unusual timing, to say the least.

While 6th St. gets a little credit for some updates, this one on 8th pointedly does not. We love the fairly direct expressions in the description:

"The 1990's appointments make it idea[l] for remodeling"
"The kitchen, with the right upgrades would be a chef's dream"
"This home is great for the family that wants to make it theirs "

In other words, get ready to roll up those sleeves and get to work.

To be fair, we did observe previously that at 1623 6th, despite some remodeling, "updates and a general sprucing up are in order." But 1648 8th is qualitatively different, more of a time machine taking you back 20+ years. The listing tells us: "pricing reflects current condition."

Priced at $1.429m, this one opens up a gaping chasm of $350k (20%) between different versions of the same home – one that needs "sprucing up," and one that is "ideal for remodeling."

8th also boasts a PPSF that will have you rubbing your eyes to say, "wait, can that be?" It's at $288/PSF right out of the blocks. What is this, Hemet?

Bubble thinking: In late 2004/early 2005, this home at 8th was offered for 4 months, as high as $2.099m. No takers. Achem.

Meanwhile, we see that 1623 6th was actually acquired in Oct. 2007 for $1.675m, before some of that remodeling work was done. So this year's price is a step up from there partly to reflect the refreshing the owners have done, but not quite accounting for the market's drop since then.

Price can cure deficiencies, and if we were betting between these 2 listings, we'd guess that the newer offering goes first.

For the October-launched 6th St. listing, the price on 8th is a lump of coal in the stocking – a clear drag on the value if they are going to get a deal done there.

While we figure it's 8th that wins this little battle, it's not like we'd make that a $10,000 bet. More like $10 for now.

Sunday Opens (12/18)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 17:04:00 +0000

It's basically the last open-house day of the year, with ~~basketball season starting~~ Christmas next week and the new year just beyond.

We've got just one debut listing and a couple more "greatest hits" to point to as we conclude this feature for the year 2011.

Looking for gift ideas and options to buy local?

Check out this post from South Bay Sparkle (a project of Mrs. MBC), with gift ideas from such local shops as Sol Baby, Pages and Uncorked.

To plan your Sunday tours, try this Redfin map list of open houses – sort by price or sub-region of MB by clicking the title on a column.

Or click here for the more traditional Beach Reporter list of opens.

Sand Section

416 Highland (3br/4ba, 2150 sq. ft.) could be called the last new TH listing of 2011, or the first of 2012, just a little early.

It's one of 13 active THs between $1.2m and $1.85m, and above average for both square footage and ocean views.

Top-floor views, nicely featured throughout the living spaces and off a nice deck, are really special – an ultra-clear day Friday, during our tour, revealed Catalina and Malibu on the horizon. (Note: Some stock photos of MB beach areas in the listing are not views from the unit.)

Tile pattern on a balcony.

The 1994 build has an exterior that must be French/European by inspiration, but feels somewhat Spanish throughout thanks to the terra cotta tile covering every floor surface, inside and out, all over the home, and the flat-stained wood. (The pattern and shapes of the tile make for a nice break from the square saltillo-type tile you would be accustomed to seeing.)

The master bath has been nicely updated/upgraded, though the listing pics barely show how well. Likewise, the kitchen has a 21st-century update. The other baths retain a 90s flavor.

View protection bonus: The home immediately to the north is older and the front part is built low enough to preserve light and views for this TH unit. A deed restriction on the neighboring property restricts its height and protects views at 416 Highland, we're told – an artifact of the properties both once having the same owner.

416 Highland starts at $1.669m and is open Sun. 2-4pm.

2909 Bayview (3br/4ba, 2450 sq. ft.) is a remodeled, mid-80s SFR with world-class ocean panoramas from the second and top floors, which appear to be unblockable.

The home surprises upon walking in, with its curious, semicircular staircase taking center stage, and the bedrooms on the bottom and midlevels all featuring strange corners and hideaway spaces. You can tell that it was an 80s original that folks have updated – particularly with the new, dark flooring and 21st-century baths. Check out the super-wow ocean views from the master bath shower.

The top-floor living space is well planned to draw in those views, with a conversational space, dining space and deck capitalizing on this asset, and even the step-up kitchen area benefiting.

2909 Bayview was last sold in Feb. 2006 for $2.150m, and for $1.440m just 3 years earlier. Obviously some remodeling has been done along the way – from a glance at the history, it looks like most of that was before 2006. This will be an interesting one to watch as they find their level.

2909 Bayview starts at $2.299m and is open Sun. 1-4pm.

Hill Section

510 Poinsettia (5br/5ba, 4300 sq. ft.) is a warm, custom home with ocean views. Now in its third month on market, it has been consistently open and available each weekend, beckoning drive-bys to drop in.

The home, with an "upside-down" layout to maximize views, has lots of thoughtful and even whimsical extras that make it feel special. (For instance: reclaimed, imported brick floors in the kitchen, nice but not garish woodwork, snappy tiles here, little paint flourishes there.)

It's a delight worth treating a guest to – or maybe it would look nice with one of those giant ribbons around it.

510 Poinsettia is at $3.499m and is open Sun. 1-4pm.

Tree Section

763 31st (5br/5ba, 3575 sq. ft.) is a home we called "a custom masterpiece" when it hit the market last year, pointing to its "inspired, timeless European design."

Much like 510 Poinsettia, this is a warm, custom home that is a special one to treat your out-of-town guests to if they just want to check out some quality local RE.

It's a beaut, a special, solid, and unique property on one of the Tree Section's best streets.

Last year, it was $3.3m. This year, $2.890m – probably needing greater adjustment to find its market than the sellers have so far been willing to contemplate.

763 31st is at $2.890m and is open Sun. 12-4pm.

Fall Sales Flat for 3 Years

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 17:46:00 +0000

For more than 2 years, MB's RE market has been puffing along with a sense of relief and a return to normalcy. No more irrational exuberance, but a steady, fairly stable feeling.

One way to see that is to look at the sales pace for the Fall months. We've defined that period as the 3 months beginning Sept. 1.

As our new charts here show, the number of SFR sales has been almost exactly equal for Fall 2009-2011.

It was Q3 2009 that largely marked the end of the local RE decline, so these data should not be a huge surprise. This is one case where boring is probably welcome.

Sales of SFRs in all of MB (first chart; click to enlarge) were at 68 this year in the period Sept. 1-Dec. 1, essentially equal to the 69 from 2009 and 71 last year. (Data in this story come from the MLS; with tax-record data we'd see somewhat more.)

It's a similar story west of the highway: 49 SFR sales this Fall, 51 last year, 47 in 2009.

The big dips in both charts are for 2007 and, especially, 2008. It's not hard to imagine the problem in 2008 – the financial world melted down around then. The drive to buy was diminished and people were jumping out of contracts at the same time. Sales were down about 25% across MB and west of Sepulveda.

The 2007 dip also makes sense – news of the housing market's drop nationally and regionally was everywhere, and the refrain that "MB is different" was coming into question.

We pushed all the way back to the late bubble years, 2005-06, to see what a crazy peak-year Fall would look like. You see 92 sales in all of MB in the 3 months of Fall in 2005, and 81 in '06. Right now we're down 15-25% from that pace.

We'll deal with median prices after Q4 wraps up, in a post early in the new year. For a refresher, though, see our YTD story on medians from October, current through Q3 – prices then were down a bit from last year. (See "First 3Q of '11: More Sales, Median Surprise.")

Thinking about demand and sales pace, though, you do get the sense, working on the front lines, that we'd have more sales this year if only we had more quality inventory. There is demand that is not being met. How much? We'll see how that resolves next year.

Little Prices in East MB

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 05:15:00 +0000

If you're offering just 800 sq. ft. and a 3800 sq. ft. lot, it had better be cheap.

And at 1801 5th St. in East MB, it was.

In what's looking like the low sale for the year among SFRs in all of MB, 1801 5th recently closed for $570k.

5th St. with a 5 in front...

This was an REO that you may recognize from its 6 months as a (failed) short sale in late 2010-early 2011, asking as much as $699k. We also mentioned it in July in "The Distress List."

Acquisition price in Spring 2007 (of course!): $870k. (If only someone had rung a bell back then.)

Yep, that's a 34% drop for a too-small house on a too-small lot that is too far east. Quite a reality check.

It just so happens that another not-so-pricey sale just closed across the street.

That would be 1761 5th (3br/2ba, 1100 sq. ft., 4950 sq. ft. lot), cheerily touted as a starter in the description.

(In our graphic here, 1801 is highlighted, and 1761 is just across Harkness to your left [west].)

No bubble economics here – the property had been owned since 1993 before being turned over this year to a newcomer. Sale price: $805k.

That's not an utter low, it's just in the lower tier for the year.

We'll look at the highs and lows in MB more systematically as the year wraps up. Meantime, here are 2 neighbors that have helped start the discussion.