More Evidence for '04 Prices Today

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:30:00 +0000

Another closed sale adds to the notion that we're living in 2004 prices in MB right now.

500 14th (3br/3ba, 2250 sq. ft.), a mid-century-style home with some recent remodeling, was purchased for $1.290m in August 2004, mid-bubble. (Click address for pics & details via Redfin.)

It just closed for $1.329m (+39k/+3%).

That's pretty much the same markup seen on the last 2 closed sales of 2004 acquisitions, both closing in mid-September. (See the MBC spreadsheet on 2003-2006 acquisitions/resales, to which 500 14th has been added.)

Of course, for the sellers at 14th, the price may be pretty flat, but over 5+ years, owning the property wound up costing them money – not something people expected when buying in Manhattan Beach several years ago.

At 5% costs of sale, commissions would eat up $66k+, significantly more than the little bump in price over 2004. And then there are all the expenses paid for interest and property taxes along the way – no equity built there, either.

This flat-to-negative outcome is somewhat more noteworthy because the same home has been offered for sale in 2007, 2008 and 2009, chasing the market down along the way. As MBC summarized in "Welcome Back" this past July:

Ready to unload for the "right" price, they tried [to sell] 3 years later – offering it for $1.849m (+$559k/+43%) in Sept. 2007.

That listing logged just 30 days, but it came back at the same price in April 2008. Over 2 months, the price came down a bit to $1.699m (+$409k/+32%).

That listing, too, expired after a short try. Here it is back this week [July 2009] at $1.499m, a comparatively modest markup of $209k (+16%) over a 2004 price.

Of course, most of that "comparatively modest markup" was shed in the final negotiations.

Here's a guess: If the same property had been priced with a 1.5 in front back in 2007, there would have been a line at the door. Probably the same goes for the first half of 2008.

Start high, come down too slow: Not the best result. There's a lesson. Again.

MB Market Update for 11/30/09

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:39:00 +0000

The new MB Market Update spreadsheets are online for your viewing by clicking here, or at any time by using the pull-down menu at the top of the page under "MB Market Updates." The current update, dated 11/30/09, covers the final 2 weeks of last month.

Remember, with the new online format, properties actively for sale can be viewed instantly (via Redfin) by clicking the property address in the spreadsheet. Also, you can easily click between the different pages (seeing MB by region, and by active or sold) using the blue tabs at the top of the page.

November saw more sales than new listings, a reversal of the way the numbers shook out in October. No huge surprise – fewer people want to start a listing now, while bargain-hunters are starting to grab properties that have lingered, reducing inventory.

Total new listings of SFRs west of Sepulveda: 13 for the month, 5 for the second part. Total sales (new escrows): 20 for the month, 10 in each half of November.

Plenty more pre-holiday cancellations (15 for the month) brought inventory further down to 66 as of Nov. 30. That's a net drop of 21 since Halloween.

You're wondering, maybe, how 2009 stacks up against last year? Inventory's WAY down from '08.

The financial market meltdown last year nearly brought home-buying to a halt at a time when inventory was already reaching new highs. Bad combination. As MBC said in "Inventory Higher This Year" last December, inventory reached a then-record 119 SFRs on Nov. 30, 2008.

So from 119 a year ago to 66 now: that's a drop of 53 listings, more than 44%. A little more normal around now. Indeed, we're down now from 73 SFRs west of Sepulveda at the same point in 2007, MBC's first year of public market tracking.

This year, inventory by sub-region west of Hwy. 1 broke down as:

Hills: 9

Sand: 30

Trees: 27

So let's talk a little more about the Hills.

Note that Hill Section inventory is down by half in a month – another achievement – dropping from 18 to 9 offerings as we head to the holidays. Suddenly it's starting to look like the Hill Section again, with sparse availability, at least for now.

In the second half of the month, as you can see from this Hill Section actives page, 6 listings left the actives – 3 as sales (new escrows) and 3 as dropouts.

Two recent MBC stories have already discussed the sale at 718 Poinsettia, new construction last at $3.489m. The other 2 listings to find buyers were:

408 N. Dianthus (3br/3ba, 2175 sq. ft.), which we described in October as "a little symphony in a tricked-out postwar cottage." That's to say, the remodel was great, the yard serene. (Click address for more pics & details via Redfin.) This was also priced below the March 2006 acquisition price ($1.708m) at $1.595m.

918 1st, a 10,000 sq. ft. lot on the south side of the downsloping hill, offers big views and even bigger potential from a larger house. First, we sadly must bid farewell to a pretty cool older home. Priced at $3.4m, this lot sale began and found a buyer within the month of November.

Dropping out:

919 1st, yes, right across the street from 918 1st. This is another lot sale offering slightly less land (8600 sq. ft.) that has lingered since February at a price more than $1m higher: $4.5m. Higher price: no sale, lower price: quick sale – there must be something to this formula.

617 6th (5br/6ba, 5725 sq. ft.), new construction (is it even finished yet? we're not sure...), had hung around for more than 600 DOM (with some re-listing).

It debuted in March 2008 at $5.950m, was last at $4.699m. The listing faced NODs and a threatened foreclosure sale, but this month – if we're reading the title activity right – appears to have been taken by one of the financial partners in the build. Don't be surprised to see it back in the new year.

1011 Pacific (6br/5ba, 6875 sq. ft.), which plenty of MBC readers complimented after some opens, gave up after 430+ DOM, still priced more than $1m above its 2004 acquisition price of $3.975m; last at $4.995m.

Just one price cut in this period among the actives: 713 Anderson is down to $1.699m (-$100k).

Two closed sales in this period, both written up previously at MBC (click property addresses for more pics & details via Redfin – yes, even for closed sales):

513 N. Dianthus sold at $1.640m, essentially gift-wrapping an extensive, pricey 2008 renovation for this year's buyers, who paid $10k less than the pre-remodel, Oct. 2007 acquisition price (see "Getting Out Before It Gets Worse"); and

717 Poinsettia, discussed just yesterday in the aptly titled "Close the Books on 717 Poinsettia," closed at $3.110m, about a third off last year's asking price.

That wraps up the Hills for November.

More on the Sand & Trees soon.

Close the Books on 717 Poinsettia

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:39:00 +0000

Up in one corner of the Hills, away from the views, things have been active recently.

As noted last week in "New & Gone," new construction on a corner lot at 718 Poinsettia has a new deal, as does 877 8th, just across Poinsettia and in a couple of doors. And nearby 864 8th made a deal off-market recently. (Click any property address for more pics & details via Redfin.)

Move from 864 toward Poinsettia, and you'll find an active construction site at the double-lot at 872 8th, where the dirt sold for $3.550m almost 18 months ago, in July 2008.

Right next door, the missing piece in this area puzzle for some time has been 717 Poinsettia, which first posted a deal in mid-June (see "Let's Hear It for the Hills") but ran into all sorts of issues after that. In the midst of it all, an NOD got filed against the property.

Some of the betting around town was that the issues couldn't be bridged, but they have been. A sale has now closed at $3.110m – nearly 13 months after the listing first began.

So what did the buyers get?

Another double lot, this time on a corner, a gated Spanish with a huge south-facing back yard, an oasis of sorts. The home is easily recognizable for its longtime, lush, mature landscaping, something you don't see enough around town, but which had been done right at 717 Poinsettia.

The home (4br/5ba, 4175 sq. ft.) was built in the mid-1980s and needs some updating, which it'll get. And that landscaping, such a prize for neighbors, for the previous owners and, surely, for the buyers, has taken a beating in recent months – water restrictions, escrow issues, etc. – and will need some work to be returned to its former glory. We'll look forward to that.

On a relative basis, the buyers got an interesting deal.

The start price last November was $4.649m, rooted to the then-recent sale of the next-door double lot at 872 8th for $3.550m, adding in a premium for the corner lot and another bump for a sweet, very livable house.

At $3.110m, the price cascaded more than $1.5m (-33%) from that start, owing to the rough economy, tough credit, and the attendant slowing of Hill Section sales.

Now someone's gotten a corner-lot home for almost $400k less than the dirt price next door, maybe $600k less than the equivalent lot value for 717 Poinsettia even just last Summer. Not such good news for the construction site, but pretty good for the corner lot.

The sellers had acquired the home in April 2004 for $2.7m, after a long, overpriced listing essentially got overlooked. Yes, they got a deal – of sorts – during the bubble.

Still, that makes today's 15% markup (+$410k) over the 2004 price impressive, since most of MB is living in 2004 prices (see "How Resales of '03-'06 Purchases Are Faring"). Beauty still counts for something.

Pricing Poll: 1801 Elm

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 04:22:00 +0000

It's likely that the little stretch of Elm between 17th and 19th streets hasn't been so busy for years.

Saturday's open house at 1801 Elm was a throwback to the frenzied days of the real estate bubble. That era when a first public open was often an event, with constant caravans of people coursing through, excited chatter on-site about the price the sellers might get, a neighborhood crawling with people carrying the flyer from the open... Saturday's open had all that.

There was something different, too, about the crowd. Because 1801 Elm will be auctioned off, and got listed with an utterly fake, ultra-low MLS start price of $399k, the added mystery – what's it worth? can you really get a house in MB for that? – drew interest from all over. (There's no true "starting price" for the auction; we'll ask you below to guess what you think it will auction for.)

Mixed in with the usual neighbors, local agents and looky-loos, you had investors hoping to grab an undervalued property rubbing elbows with young couples wondering if they might luck into a cheap house in MB. The cars coming and going ranged from the 15-year old Nissans to the rented Mercedes to the paid-off BMW convertibles. And plenty of minivans.

All the excitement, though, gave way quickly to 2 realizations:

1) that's one grim, destroyed house that's for sale; and

2) no one's getting any bargain here, not with so much buzz around the property.

Grim, yes – it's hard to overstate. The home was built in 1950 and has been through the wringer ever since, lived in until the house itself began to give out. (The owner actually passed away inside, as the on-site listing agent was more than willing to disclose to open-house visitors.)

Ceilings are peeling, pockmarked and outright collapsed. Walls are cracked. Trees and vines grew through windows. Termites appear to have had their way. Carpets were remarkably soiled, deep black in places, but the most shocking dirt may have been the rusty, caked-on filth covering the walls and floor of the shower tub and the sinks in the bathrooms and kitchen. Doesn't water clean things?

If you marched into the open thinking: "With a little vision and patience, anyplace can be transformed," then your faith was challenged. It's a teardown.

Similarly, if you marched into the open thinking that you could blaze past any human story behind this property, the crushing squalor of the home may have stripped you of that notion as well.

Besides the crowd indicating broad interest, there was another blow to open-house visitors hoping they might grab this property for a bargain: The fine print.

The basic details of the probate auction were already well known – next Sunday, Dec. 6, an auction will be held at the property, with no opening bid, no pre-registration, and few of the big-time cash demands that make foreclosure auctions difficult for regular folks to participate in. You must bring a $5,000 cashier's check to be eligible to bid (it will only be collected from the winner) and be ready to write a personal check for 10% of the winning bid on site if you win.

On balance, not so tough. (For more on the auction itself, see the website of the company repping the property. Within that page is this list of FAQs about their auctions.)

But the fine print says this to the winner: Even if you win, you might not win.

How's that? The auction "winner" can be outbid in 4-6 weeks in court. So if you luck out and pay "too little" – less than true market value – when winning the auction, some shark can come to court and outbid you there. Overbids start at the auction price plus 5%.

We're still thinking that the buzz and numbers of bidders and the frenzy of the moment will lead to an above-market price being paid at the auction, but it's sobering for any "winner" to know that's not the last act.

So now, just a week before the auction, we'll call the question for MBC readers:

How much will 1801 Elm auction for?

Here we're limiting the question to next week's auction event – not the final price in court late this year or early next.

We don't have to look far for comps. As MBC noted previously in "A Different Kind of Auction," the home right next door, 1733 Elm sold (short) for $801k in May. That was a "fixer" because it had been gutted, mid-remodel, but it has now been fixed and is hosting humans nicely.

This probably means that 1801 Elm is worth a bit less as dirt – well, land, to be specific. What's that, maybe $700k-$750k, conservatively?

Your guess as to what the "winner" will bid at the auction next week needs to factor in:

land values during a downtrend,
the motivations of auction bidders (flippers, sharks or end-users) and
the uncertainty of the auction moment when it arrives.

And since you know that bidders will have another crack at the property after the auction, do you think there will be excessive offers on-site, or not until the court date weeks later?

We're putting up several choices for where you think the auction will end up next week. Please vote in our new poll and explain and support your vote in the comments. The poll will run through Saturday night, the eve of the auction, at 8pm.

Sunday Opens (11/29)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 05:11:00 +0000

No question, the headline open house already happened: Saturday's frenzied probate-auction open at 1801 Elm. A bit like the "old days" there. More on that one this coming week, along with a pricing poll.

Of course, this holiday weekend's pickings are limited, but there are some worth a peek.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link from the "Property Search Tools" pull-down menu in the top navigation bar.

As always, click any highlighted property address for more pics & details via Redfin. Please report back here at MBC on any open houses you visit – what you like, what you don't like, etcetera.

East MB

What would any weekend be without another open at 116 Terraza? This time they're celebrating a $1m price cut to $8.999m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Lamar Odom's place is open again, too. That's 1639 5th (5br/5ba, 4175 sq. ft.), still at $2.399m. (For more, see our first discussion in "Weekend Opens (10/31-11/1).") It's pictured here, and open Sun. 1-4pm.

For what it's worth on this lazy Sunday, we'll note that Lamar and his new bride are said to have already found their new home, this one in Tarzana (not Terraza), last priced at $3.995m (click for pics & details via Redfin). It's about twice the size of the MB home and with far fewer neighbors.

Sand Section

105 Crest is a TH offering 3br/4ba, 2325 sq. ft. in a fairly sleepy area down South.

The listing doesn't offer an exterior pic, but does make a point of showing this ocean peek, so we're running with that.

The early-90s build has some updates, and, they say, a big master. Starts at $1.425m and $615/PSF, notably lower by the square foot than nearby, smaller 325 2nd, which lacks the peek.

105 Crest is open Sun. 2-4pm.

317 8th is a corner lot at Crest on a flat walkstreet right near downtown.

Mainly it's a lot-value sale, though someone seeking the walkstreet lifestyle might just break down and go for the $1.699m or so that the sellers seek.

Just across the street, the lot-and-a-half at 316 8th sold recently (closed in mid-Sept.) for $2.150m.

317 8th is open Sun. 1-4pm.

Tree Section

If you're near downtown, once again a couple of 12th St. listings are open. Just a quick few steps up off Ardmore you'll find:

521 12th (4br/3ba, 3000 sq. ft.) is a near-total remodel that's now marking 5 full months on market, going on 6.

(A recent bogus re-list actually wiped out the proper CDOM, but the listing began June 7.)

It's a skinny 80s home with major updates that began at $2.295m and has just cut to $2.079m, still a tad ambitious. Sellers paid $1.760m in Jan. 2006 before going for the re-do.

Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Just up the hill is 645 12th, huge (5br/6ba, 4875 sq. ft.) new construction near the top of the hill on 12th St.

It's got all the luxe appointments of a new-era Mediterranean plus disappearing doors that reveal ocean and PV views.

This one began more than 400 days ago at $4.499m, and still has a price issue, apparently, even $900k lighter at $3.599m.

Open Sun. 2-4pm.

Probate Auction: Open This Sat.

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:45:00 +0000

Just a brief reminder, if you're at all interested in the probate auction home at 1801 Elm, its one and only public open is this Saturday, Nov. 28, from 12:30-2:30.

Yes, everything's unusual about that: holiday weekend, Saturday and an early start & close.

They're figuring that the motivated buyers will be there.

Bring your questions and maybe your inspector. (We've already picked up from the rumble of commentary that the structure can't be rescued, but we'll see.)

The auction is next Sunday, Dec. 6. Next week MBC will run a pricing poll asking you to predict the auction outcome. So even if you're not bidding, check it out if you can.

New & Gone

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 05:14:00 +0000

They're not making new land around here anymore (old joke), but they're also not making many new homes, either – at least not for the spec market.

In the past week or so, the limited inventory of available and pending new construction has begun to close out even more.

229 24th, a gorgeous big (5br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft.) Spanish west of Highland, has now closed for $4.2m. (Click address for pics & details via Redfin.)

Yes, that's down quite a bit from the ambitious start at $5.495m in February (-$1.295m/-24%), but it's that closed figure that stands out. Impressive for a home that's close to Highland, but – importantly – west of it.

Lots of echoes of 229 24th in 332 20th, another beaut by the same builder, which was new in 2008 and is recently back on market after a rental interlude at $3.895m. East of Highland will do that to you.

Also closing this week: Something different at 2901 Oak.

As we noted in "Renting Can Cost You, Part II," Oak hit the market at $1.995m in Spring 2008, but rented out – more like a lease-option deal, we hear – instead of selling. The option wasn't exercised and it came back this October, selling quickly (2 weeks) for list price: $1.699m. Not bad for almost-new and an Oak location.

Also almost-new, but pending: 903 10th, which made a deal a few weeks back (not closed yet). This one is big (6br/7ba, 5125 sq. ft.) and perhaps overdone in some details. The home bears a 2007 completion date, but these buyers will be the first people who didn't build it to live in it. Began at $3.195m and was last at $2.850m.

Truly new and pending: 718 Poinsettia, just up the block from 903 10th and a bit bigger (6br/5ba, 5725 sq. ft.). Began at $3.849m, shifted some digits to $3.489m, and we'll wait to see where it closes.

Also new & pending: 128 9th, down low in the Sand near downtown (last at $5.395m) and 2401 John, quite nearly the last speckie to hit the market in the Trees, which posted its long-rumored deal last week. (UPDATE: 128 9th closed for $4.9m later in the day that this story was posted.)

There may come a time soon when we're not using that "new" designation much in the MBC spreadsheets. As Blake Roberts wrote the other day, we may be nearing the "very tip of the dragon's tail" in terms of new construction offerings in MB. (His imagery, not MBC's.)

Yes, the bubble-driven wave of redevelopment may be all but over. Until the next set hits.

Would-Be Flip Returns as REO

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:44:00 +0000

We're headed back again to the MBC story vault to pull up some history on a "new" listing.

758 14th, part of the Arbolado Court development near American Martyrs and Pacific School, recently went back to the bank, and is now offered to the public at $1,356,300. (Yes, that is the exact price, for whatever reason.)

Oh yes, we remember 758 14th. After appearing on MBC during the blog's very first month (see "On Second Thought, Let's Flip It"), 758 made several later cameos, as neighboring houses hit the market. Two of those sold, one quit after a little toe-dip. But 758 never sold; it rented out before the evident distress situation gradually took over and the bank got the keys.

So let's go back, first, to July 2006. That's when the 4br/3ba, 3050 sq. ft. home (1988 build) was purchased for $1.695m. Looking at that date, the then-new owners may well have nailed the peak of the local market with the timing of their purchase. It certainly was the peak value for this property.

Just 7 months later (!), they were asking someone to take the home off their hands – at a markup. This was the first mistake, we now know. They asked $1.990m (+$295k/+17%). In that aforementioned early MBC story, we expressly wished them luck in selling, but added:

please don't expect bodacious profits after less than a year.

By mid-May 2007, there were 2 other neighbors on the market – 752 14th and 1140 Laurel. All were featured in "A Threesome in Arbolado Tract."

At that time, using the PPSF from 2 recent Arbolado sales, we ventured that 1140 Laurel (3br/3ba, 2550 sq. ft.) should be priced between $1.4m-$1.5m. It had begun at $1.639m and later sold for $1.535m – not bad for an amateur assessment.

We also suggested, at that time, $1.7m-$1.8m max for 758 14th. But it was still at $1.899m. And falling.

By August 2007, 758 14th was down to $1.750m, finally signaling that the sellers knew they'd have to absorb some loss (after costs of sale) to make a deal (see "Another Arbolodo Update"). We said then:

If they'd begun at a more reasonable price, we might not be talking about the house now.

But there would be more to talk about later.

The slow journey of 758 14th toward the right market price was interrupted harshly by neighbor 754 14th, a comparably sized (5br/3ba, 3100 sq. ft.) home that was sharply and recently upgraded. (That Redfin link pulls up the old listing but not the pics.)

The superior neighbor came on $1k below the price of increasingly crusty 758 14th and sold almost immediately. Closed price at 754: $1.665m in Oct. 2007. (See "Aggression Pays" and "Shaking the Trees.")

The bottom had fallen from under that $1.7-ish wish price for 758 14th. It clearly was not worth its 2006 price anymore. By December 2007 it had simply quit the market. As MBC noted in "A Cascade of Quitters," the home was also offered for lease at $5k/mo., so we assumed it rented out. We asked then:

Wouldn't it be strange if the story ended with a whimper like this?

The better part of 2 years passed, but the story hasn't really ended yet.

Records indicate that the owners held on for another year without much trouble, but by Dec. 2008, the first NOD was filed. Two trustee's sale notices were filed, in April and July of this year.

The bank took the property in mid-August, records showing a transaction at $1.184m at that point. (The amount owed; $1m of the original purchase was financed.)

The listing has now been handed off to an out-of-area REO disposition specialist at that strange price of $1,356,300. The listing describes the home, with its dead lawn and largely dated interior, as "breathtaking" and "gorgeous" (really?), and also notes that the property must be taken as-is. (That, you'd expect.)

Let's say the REO firm's guess at the market value is dead-on (we'll use $1.355m instead of that specific number).

That would mean the value is down $340k/-20% since July 2006. A decline of 20% is entirely consistent with almost all of the 2006 purchases resold in 2009, according to MBC's ever-evolving compilation of recent same-property sales data. (Click to view the online spreadsheet.)

What's different here is that we've witnessed this specific property's decline like a slow-moving train wreck.

So, is it a deal at $1.35m?

There haven't been any Arbolado listings over the past 2 years to use as a comparative measure. What we can say is, that's a lot of house in a decent location. And from what we recall, people used to pay close to $2m to get in.

A Lull in 'Weekend Opens'

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:06:00 +0000

Fewer sellers, fewer buyers, less new inventory. That's the holiday season.

It also means our "Weekend Opens" feature often lacks compelling new offerings.

We're taking this weekend off, holding out some chance for next weekend (after Turkey Day). We'll definitely be running the following weekend with the Dec. 6 auction at 1801 Elm.

Through year-end, we'll run either limited features or none, depending on inventory.

Like most readers, we prefer the "Weekend Opens" feature when there's lots to see and talk about.

In between now and the Super Bowl, we'll try to keep it interesting.

Just in case you do go out this weekend, remember to post here about what you like or don't like. The current list of opens can be viewed by clicking here or, at any time, by using the pulldown menu under "Property Search Tools" at the top of the page.

MB Market Update for 11/15/09, Trees

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:14:00 +0000

Let's wrap up our look at the first half of this month with a look at Tree Section activity.

Recall from our first story that active SFR inventory in the Trees stood at 34 by MBC's count. Click here for Tree section actives as of 11/15 priced below $1.5m, and here for actives above $1.5m.

What's new?

How about a misguided flip attempt, a probate auction house and a 2007 acquisition that's marked up a bit – for now. To wit:

The '07 acquisition is 937 27th, a late-90s build (4br/4ba, 3150 sq. ft.) that was brought up to crisp, 21st-century standards just last year by the newest owners.

They paid $1.900m in Feb. 2007, did the work, and now seek $1.999m. (Could this remodel work out to be a "gift" to the next owner, just as we characterized the 513 N. Dianthus remodel yesterday?)

Very attractive, though there have been some choices for buyers near that price, above and below, including bigger homes without the problem of the cut-through-street at 27th.

1204 Fisher is the would-be flip, as referenced in (of course) "Flipping Fisher?" Recall that this is one of three contiguous lots that a developer purchased, but wasn't able to use. Current (new) owner paid $1.375m in late July and seeks $1.699m now. Sometimes builders play this game before starting their own projects – why not see if you can get your profit without the trouble?

The probate auction house is 1801 Elm, subject of a recent post called "A Different Kind of Auction." The head-slapping $399k start price is not even really the auction start price, just a placeholder in the MLS entry. You'll see a lot more on this one before the Sunday, Dec. 6 auction at the property.

One more new entry is 845 Marine, a good-size (3br/2ba, 1500 sq. ft.), mostly dated 1950s cottage (one updated bath!) that starts out at $1.079m.

Not exactly new, but returning to the MLS after several weeks of an escrow that failed, is 590 36th, very big for the area (5br/4ba, 4300 sq. ft.) and now not really marked up from its March 2005 price, $1.584m, before the current remodel. Now at $1.599m.

A few sellers managed to find buyers in this period, with 4 new escrows opening (see the Tree Section solds page), including:

566 31st (5br/5ba, 3350 sq. ft.), a warm and authentic-feeling Spanish in a fairly quiet setting, though quite near controversial Sand Dune Park. If there ever was a time to sell in this location, it was during the current "indefinite" closure of the park, meaning no impact. For now.

31st began at $2.1m and moved quickly to its last list price of $1.795m, over less than 90 days.

648 26th (5br/3ba, 2775 sq. ft.), an open and pretty charming custom Mediterranean with a backyard pool. Began at $1.799m and sold in about 5 weeks.

500 14th (3br/3ba, 2250 sq. ft.), a mid-century-style home with some recent remodeling that boasts proximity to parks, downtown and the beach, though it's set just above busy Ardmore.

The owners paid $1.290m in August 2004, mid-bubble. They tried to sell for $1.849m (+$559k/+43%) in Sept. 2007, but recently returned to market at $1.499m and were down to $1.399m when a buyer knocked. They might get out flat.

Just 2 price cuts this period besides 590 36th:

2100 Pine (5br/5ba, 3100 sq. ft.) is a sharp new custom-built Nantucket (listing) that for some reason has lingered quietly for 150+ days.

The listing began at $2.425m – rich for new construction these days – and is now down to $2.165m.

It says here that the lot was acquired for $1.4m in Aug. 2006, leaving not so great of a margin anymore for the eventual sale.

2405 Elm (3br/3ba, 2175 sq. ft.) took another step down to $1.1m, getting a bit more interesting based on the square footage, though the home needs a range of updates and won't be moving further from Marine any time soon.

Finally, we logged 3 closed sales in the Trees in the first part of the month. Of those, 2 were discussed in "Three Sales, Several Trends" – the short sale at 649 29th ($1.375m) and the cheap cottage at 3609 Poinsettia ($792k). (Click any address to see pics & details via Redfin – yes, even for closed sales now!) (Side note: Yes, we were a bit too cheery referring to the Poinsettia house's "old-time charm" when expressing a measure of relief that it wouldn't be scraped for a new speckie. Some readers, including Mrs. MBC, noticed and commented... the home isn't all that charming.)

So we'll close out here with a discussion of the third closed sale: 3109 Laurel.

Just last week, this small (2br/2ba, 1025 sq. ft.) cottage on an awkward upslope lot closed for $847,500.

That's one of the lower dirt values for a stone's throw distance from this location in a while, which won't make any of the neighbors happy.

But we also have a measuring stick that makes it hurt a bit more: a previous sale of the same property, in April 2006 (hello market peak!) for $1.375m.

Last week's sale price is a drop of $527,500 (-38%), from that crazy peak price of just 3.5 years ago.

38%. Your results, peak to trough, may vary.

This one had been offered as a short sale earlier this year, without success. Back in August, in "More on 'Foreclosures' in MB, Part II," we noted the "shock," that Laurel recently had been acquired for $568k. That was less than half what was owed when the home was foreclosed upon by the bank, which was apparently feeling generous (or desperate) at the foreclosure auction on the courthouse steps.

There was more to it – complexities, nastiness and other liens that we're not going to discuss here – but an investor found a way to take care of the clutter and get this property back to market, offering it at $899k and selling for the above-mentioned $847k and change. That price is a real market price, and a real blow in one corner of the Trees.

Getting Out Before It Gets Worse

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:19:00 +0000

They say no one's got a crystal ball, so no one knows what's next for local housing prices.

Meantime, some sellers need to take the best deals they can get and move on. Don't wait for better times – get out soon in case things get worse.

On Tuesday, 513 N. Dianthus closed for $1.640m. (Click address for pics & details via Redfin.)

Not bad for a 3br/3ba, 2470 sq. ft. home that was "completely upgraded" (listing) only last year, with a high-end kitchen and modern baths leading the way in the pricey re-do.

That whole remodel was actually some kind of a gift to the new owners, as the closed price was $10k below the sellers' pre-remodel, Oct. 2007 acquisition price ($1.650m).

Though this listing began in May at $1.899m, enough to pay for the work, it must have been clear pretty soon that that was never going to happen. And now the sellers simply took what they could get.

They also met the market with that $259k cut, which it wasn't so clear they'd do when they started. In May, in "Learning, and Not," MBC pointed to 513 Dianthus as an example of a listing that seemed to literally be "trying not to learn from the selling experience of their neighbors." To their credit, they changed course.

Also technically in the Hills, we have the first of the new MBB modern townhomes (aka "the John condos") closing.

1110 John is the "granddaddy" of the 3-condo set, offering 3br/3ba, 2500 sq. ft. That's 700-900 sq. ft. more than the others.

This one was the shocker of the set when it came out at the oddly precise asking price of $1,792,900 back in January. (See "A Surprising Development on MBB.")

Whatever pricing algorithm they used failed. A buyer has now stepped in and taken 1110 John for the very plain-vanilla price of $1,000,000, and a middling $402/PSF.

That's a drop of $793k (-44%) from start. (It's also $640k less than having your own place off of MBB over on Dianthus.)

Looking back to that first story on the John condos, MBC went out on a limb and said, "These new condos seem like a breathtakingly bad bet." Also:

With a crashing economy, the slowest real estate sales pace ever in Manhattan Beach and growing inventory (i.e., options), is someone really going to pay $1.8m to live on a busy street studded with commercial buildings?

Of course, the answer to that (wordy) question was "no," resoundingly.

[Hat tip: Blake Roberts also has a post on the sale of 1110 John, apparently beating MBC to press by a bit.]

Now, about 1108 John ($850k, $467/PSF, in escrow) and 1106 John ($850k, $531/PSF, available), can those get closed out before the market – perhaps – takes another step down?

MB Market Update for 11/15/09, Sand

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:01:00 +0000

The other day we took a first look at data from the opening 2 weeks of November, and focused on some specific activity in the Hill Section.

Now let's look at what's going on by the beach.

Recall that there were 33 actives in the Sand Section as of 11/15/09. Here are links to the actives priced below $2m, and to actives above $2m.

New to the market were 3 listings, 2 priced below acquisition and one offered as a short sale:

528 24th is a taut, sharply remodeled little 2br/1ba, 1200 sq. ft. cottage in the gaslight area. Current owners paid $1.250m in Oct. 2006, now seek $1.150m;

123 44th is a 2007 acquisition that's short, though it's offered at precisely the Jan. 2007 price of $1.490m. Someone's going to need to break some bad news to the bank (see "Tinkering Won't Save It"); and

317 17th is another 2007 acquisition (Nov. '07), where the seller paid $2.050m, tried to unload for nearly $2.8m, and is now in escrow at $2.0m. (See "17th Gets Busy.") This one is a "new" listing only technically; it came up in escrow.

Yes, those are the sorts of listings you'll see late in the year.

There's also one big closing story...

502 24th, the glorious, fun, cool new "green" modern across from the Grandview parking lot, the home that MBC called a "Beautiful Loser," has closed for $2.3m.

That's an astonishing $2.6m less than the start price, a 53% reduction from that nervy beginning.

This means that November has already seen the biggest percentage price chop from start (53%) on a closed sale in 2009 and the biggest dollar price cut from start – at 218 Anderson in the Hills, which went from about $10m to $6.525m (total drop $3.463m/-35%), as noted in "Ground Down to $6.5m."

The lot for the Beautiful Loser was acquired for $1.375m in 2005; a less spectacular speckie might have turned a profit near this price point. But recall that the listing said that this one was already priced $1m below costs when the list price was $2.995m – take another $700k off, and the bath taken here is $1.7m.

The closed price for 502 24th is precisely the same as that for another orphaned contemporary that sold well below its ambitious start price – 425 26th, just the other side of Grandview, on the hill overlooking the school (and with big views as a result); start price: $3.75m, sold short in July at $2.3m.

There were 3 new deals (new escrows) in this period in the Sand. These included the 17th St. house mentioned above, plus its neighbor, 321 17th, a lot-and-a-half last offered at $2.499m. We covered this ground in "17th Gets Busy."

We're almost afraid to mention the newest deal at 132 2nd, a star-crossed listing, it seems sometimes, ~~but one of these days~~; no, best not to say any more.

Added to the spreadsheet in this period is also 441 6th Place, though it was never on MBC's spreadsheets as an active SFR (it's a lot sale that launched in late September). This is a prime corner lot at the dead-end of Ingleside, right up on the flat 7th St. walkstreet.

Offering price was $1.649m, fully $401k below the lot price at directly comparable 440 6th on the next block, purchased for $2.050m in Sept. 2007 before the current, new Cape Cod there was built. (Offered currently at $3.999m.) We'll see where 6th Place ends up; it's the better lot (splitting hairs!) but it's now 2 tough years later.

Among the active listings wishing for some actual action, there wasn't a lot of movement:

The cheapest listing in the Sand, 532 5th Place, is gone. MBC called it "a dinky, 1930s-vintage house" (2br/2ba, 900 sq. ft.) and noted that it was on an alley. Sellers had paid $923k in Jan. 2006 before a significant remodel; last at $899k.

The strange case of 217 Seaview continues. This was the "lease-option" house a couple years back, offered this year with urgent language pleading for bids, now offering "owner financing" and a tiny markup of $12.5k over the start price from July to $1.325m.

Higher up the scale, 121 17th (pictured) made its first cut, dropping $300k to $3.7m. We have the sense that there's much further to go. As MBC noted in a "Weekend Opens" story featuring this listing:

The one 100-block sale we see in the last 6 months was substantially larger 132 19th (3br/3ba, 3300 sq. ft.) which sold in May for $3.315m and $1,005/PSF. (See "Some Sand Sales" for more.)

Finally, the elaborate walkstreet Tuscan at 216 7th (along Bayview) is now down $900k, at $5.595m. For a bigger writeup and some reader reactions to the first open house, see our "Weekend Opens" story from June 13-14 here.

Open Forum (11/18- )

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 04:41:00 +0000

Christmas lights: lovely to look at, fun to ~~hang up~~ have someone else install, a great celebration, even if they are a sub-optimal use of electricity.

All over town, the lights are up early, early, early this year.

Up, and on.

A week after Halloween, they were going up. This had to be a record.

Is this some kind of bargain-hunting? Crews are offering deals, maybe, for those who get an early start?

Are we helpin' the workin' man? The under-employed who could use the extra gig to make ends meet?

Either way, if these early lights in our better-off community are some kind of strange reflection of recessionary 2009, then maybe it's great that they're up early.

Now, shut them off.

Because Christmas lights don't go on till after Thanksgiving. In some places it's rude to turn them on in any month that isn't December. (Yes, that means turning them off again in January, but we'll get to that later.)

Shut them off now, just for another week or so. Or else.

Or else what?

You want the crews knocking on your door next year on Oct. 1?

They'll be offering to decorate your home for Halloween. The next day they can do your Christmas lights.

Soon it will be lights on the house for July 4th. Installed some time in June? No. The day after Easter.

Resist the temptation. Save some electrons. Put the lights up whenever. But shut them off now, and we'll all enjoy them later.

----------------------------------------------

As always, please use this "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature.

Close the Books on 2312 Pine

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:59:00 +0000

Back in early August, MBC called a pricing poll on 2312 Pine. We explained then (see the original story) that it wasn't clear that the home was "dramatically overpriced," as some previously polled properties clearly had been:

What drew our attention instead was that this home was sold new in 2003 and is now up for resale for the first time.

It turns out this one wasn't up for resale for the "first time," though. We later learned that it had been offered in 2005, got bid up well above asking, then did not sell upon the decision of the owners to stay.

So now we have a story about what a 2003 acquisition was able to fetch in 2009, and also how that's different from what was offered in 2005. It's a look at the local market in 3 separate stages.

We'll also compare the results here to reader opinions on the pricing. In short: most people voting in our pricing poll were much too bearish on 2312 Pine, and on the question we posed here about what kind of markup sellers might expect on a 2003 purchase when selling today.

Our first chart here summarizes data from 2003, 2005 and 2009. Actual sale prices are in green. Offering prices in 2005 and 2009 are blue. (Click chart to enlarge.)

Note, as mentioned above, when the home was offered for sale 4 years ago, it triggered a bidding war to a price we're told was $1.950m (grey to reflect our fuzziest number), but the owners decided at that point to stay put.

A word about the most recent closed sale price: the MLS and tax records both show $1.755m. However, we're reliably informed that there was an error in the reporting somewhere, and the actual price was $1.775m, so we're running with that figure instead.

Knowing what we know now about today's prices, it's interesting to see that you could get a high-quality new home in a good location for just over $1.5m. That was 6 years ago, and we're not back to that point yet.

The market experience of 2312 Pine provides additional support to the notion that the local market peaked at some point in 2005-2006, depending on the house.

Now we'll look at the same figures expressed as percentage increases.

Back in our first pricing poll story, MBC said:

Our poll probably boils down to: Can you get 20% above 2003 prices nowadays? If not, how much more can you get?

This graph shows that 2312 Pine, anyway, got 14% more than its 2003 price this year. (Click to enlarge.)

That's consistent with the markups on 2 other 2003 acquisitions resold this year, according to MBC's chart on how 2003-06 purchases are faring.

As you can see on that online spreadsheet, there were 3 other 2003 purchases with bigger markups – all, we believe, remodeled significantly between 2003-2009. So it's pretty safe to say that this year, unchanged homes are fetching in the low teens above their 2003 prices, percentagewise.

Finally, let's look at how MBC readers did in their effort to forecast the sale price on 2312 Pine.

In a word: not so good.

69% of those expressing an opinion on price did not believe Pine would get more than $1.7m. Of those who proved too bearish, almost half chose the category $1.6m-$1.699m, so some were off by about $75k and some were off by $175k.

Of the potential comps referenced in our story setting up the poll, 2 were over $1.7m, plus we mentioned 1812 Palm as an "outlier" at $2.1m (better location plus a rare, 2009 bidding war).

MBC's story did say:

2312 Pine starts at $601/PSF. The main comps we're looking at were between $478 and $541/PSF, suggesting a price range of $1.5m-$1.7m for Pine if we go on PPSF alone.

But, of course, no one goes by PPSF alone. Maybe we steered some readers wrong.

Prior pricing polls have shown a good breadth of opinion, and several have proved to be insufficiently bearish, mostly assuming higher prices than market values worked out to be. One day we'll detail the results of various polls systematically to see how we've all been doing.

The end result here at Pine, meanwhile, is that a 6-year-old home in a good location got a nice return, if not all that was available at the market's peak, a good outcome for both parties this year.

MB Market Update for 11/15/09

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:15:00 +0000

Things are looking better in the Hill Section as the holidays approach – and it's not just all the early Christmas lights – as we'll see in the first of our November market updates.

Hills: 15
Sand: 33
Trees: 34

Look at that Hill Section number a moment. With just 15 active listings, the sub-region is finally approaching "normal," after months with inventory in the 30s this year. (Click here for the Hill Section actives page.)

Part of that is due to recent sales (new escrows). There has literally been a run on 5,000 sq. ft. houses recently (click any highlighted address for pics & details via Redfin, yes, while they're in escrow!):

877 8th (6br/6ba, 5000 sq. ft.) a short-term hold of a newer Cape Cod (2007 build) purchased new for $3.650m in Sept. 2007. This one hit the market this year at $3.599m and was last at $3.299m;

903 10th (6br/7ba, 5125 sq. ft.), new construction as of 2007, began at $3.195m this year and was last at $2.850m; and

407 Larsson (6br/6ba, 4850 sq. ft.), a resale that's going to cost the owners some money, was purchased for $2.980m in Nov. 2005. This home had a deal within a couple of days of switching agents and making a big price cut to $2.269m early last week. (See "More Trouble on Larsson.")

It was also during the first half of November that 2 big sales in the Hills closed. We've already discussed those in regular posts at MBC, but the homes are so great they're each worth another mention:

218 Anderson (pictured) a huge (8br/9ba, 8500 sq. ft.) home on an ocean-view double lot, which cut from $9.988m to $6.525m (-$3.463m/-35%) (see "Ground Down to $6.5m"); and

400 N. Poinsettia (5br/6ba, 4550 sq. ft.), a great Cape Cod at the crest of Poinsettia that fared much better than the slightly larger homes referenced above as new sales are ever going to do, closing at $3.855m (see "Three Sales, Several Trends"). That was, however, down a bit from $4.1m in Aug. 2006.

Full details on pending and sold homes are on the Hill Section solds page.

There are a couple other good headlines from other sub-regions, which we'll cover in an upcoming post.

Sunday Opens (11/15)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 03:19:00 +0000

Very little new in the way of opens this week, so we'll restrict our suggestions to just 2 which we'd like to see and hear about.

Next weekend we'll try to recap the best of what's (apparently) staying on market through the holidays, along with any new offerings.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link from the "Property Search Tools" pull-down menu in the top navigation bar.

As always, click any highlighted property address for more pics & details via Redfin. Please report back here at MBC on any open houses you visit – what you like, what you don't like, etcetera.

Sand Section

311 32nd is one of 2 townhomes from a set completed in 2007 that are now for sale. 311 and 310 32nd (for sale, not open) are across the 32nd St. walkstreet from one another, right along Highland.

311 is pretty big at 3br/3ba, 3400 sq. ft., and boasts some impressive ocean views. Set up, as it is, above Highland, it's not clear how intrusive a factor that busy street will be.

The (town)home has high-end cabinetry and finishes, and great décor to boot, which will help.

And yet, $2.799m is a tough price point these days. Sellers paid $2.850m in June 2007, at the peak – really the end – of the Spring Rally of 2007.

Worth a look Sun. 1-4pm.

Tree Section

1605 Elm (4br/3ba, 3100 sq. ft.) hails from the pretty much the start of the last building cycle in MB (1999). It sold new, back then, for $964k.

Oh, how far we've come since.

After a stopoff at $1.275m in Spring 2003, the home's offered for another resale now at $1.699m.

What's the market like for a pretty standard, if nicely kept, late-90s build?

Open Sun. 2-4pm.

17th Gets Busy

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:47:00 +0000

Two next-door neighbors on 17th St. have made deals after many, many combined months on the market.

We had to reach deep into the MBC archives to find our first reference to 317 17th. Fortunately, this is the Internet; we didn't have to kick up any dust to pull up "Stuff Our Stockings (Please)," from mid-December 2007. (Click property address above for pics & details via Redfin.)

Back then, what drew notice was the short hold and big markup. To wit:

Bought Nov. 7, 2006 for: $2.050m
Offered in Dec. 2007 for: $2.799m

Yes, the seller sought $749k (36%) more after 13 months for the same property, no big improvements. Let's call that "bubble thinking."

Later, the seller seemed to come around. After almost 6 months on market, in late May 2008, the list price shifted to $2.199m. That was still a markup over 2006, but worth a mention at MBC for the "$600k Reality Check" that was evident in the chop. (That "reality check" story shows the price history from Dec. 2007-May 2008, with several cuts.)

The home itself boasts a 1920s heritage, some updates, and a rental unit out back. Various reader comments here at MBC have described an attractive, interesting property with layout issues that made the whole package a puzzle that was very hard to solve.

317 17th never sold, dropping out at some point along the way. But it has just hit the radar screen now, already in escrow. Price: $2.0m.

And here's where the shades of gray come in.

Gone are the attempted markups. There will be a significant, but not devastating, loss, after costs of sale. Yet, if this one closes at $2m, it will actually be an impressive example of a property holding near a 2006 market value. That's rare around town these days.

As to the neighbor up the hill a bit, 321 17th (aka 320 17th Pl.) is much bigger. The footprint, that is.

The property is actually a lot-and-a-half, 4050 sq. ft. instead of the standard 2700.

Make no mistake, it's a lot sale. The longtime listing (375+ DOM) has always said "lot value only." Also, the pics conform to the "first pic is a view" rule – actually, the first 6 pics are views. Definitely a lot sale.

This was a late-2007 acquisition – yes, later in this cycle than even the neighbor – and there will be some kind of markdown.

In Oct. 2007, the lot drew $2.7m. It was last at $2.499m.

Much like the neighbor, 321 17th hit the market about a year after acquisition, back on Oct. 30, 2008. Unlike the neighbor, the seller never sought a markup.

With both listings selling at about the same time, it's natural to wonder if someone has gone out and acquired two-and-a-half ocean-view lots near the top of a nice, big hill near downtown.

That, we don't yet know, so we'll simply note the coincidence alongside the evidence for surprisingly modest price declines for some semi-prime ocean-view lots. And more clearing of the inventory before the holidays.

A Different Kind of Auction

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:25:00 +0000

Just over a year ago, MBC carried news of an extraordinary auction coming up in MB. Five spec homes (2 in MB west of Sepulveda) that had failed to sell on the regular open market were going to the highest bidder. (See "Name Your Price?")

Those auctions were a wipeout – 0 for 5, though the properties all eventually found new owners. (See "Forget 'Qualified' – Auctions Failed.")

Now there's another auction around the corner, and we're going to go out on a limb here and say it won't fail.

1801 Elm is being offered to the general public in an auction on Sunday, Dec. 6, at 4:45pm.

It's a probate auction, subject to court confirmation. No need to shuttle down to the courthouse in Norwalk or someplace like that – just come to the property. (More auction details below.)

The new listing has generated a little buzz because it's priced at $399k. That's called a teaser, and in this case, it worked. If you're even remotely engaged in the local market, you probably placed and received calls (or emails) on the property on Wednesday.

Here's a second prediction: The property won't sell for $399k at the auction. (Boy, the blog author's really sticking his neck out this time!)

Right next door, 1733 Elm sold (short) for $801k in May. (Click address for more pics & details.) That was a "fixer" because it had been gutted, mid-remodel, and needed work before a family could move in.

What can we say about 1801 Elm? The listing description says only: "Fixer Upper!!!!"

And that's probably an understatement regarding this early-50s cottage. It's not sweet but gutted like 1733, it's just plain hurting. Also, with a probate sale, a first question should always be: how, when and where did the owner pass? The answer could affect the value here, and whether someone might wish to fix it up or raze the house.

There will be an open house in a couple of weeks (Sat. Nov. 28, yes, Thanksgiving weekend), so we'll wait till then to see the full range of opinions on the home. We'll call a pricing poll on this one, too, in the days leading up to the auction to see what readers guess it might go for.

For more on the auction itself, see the website of the company repping the property. Within that page is this list of FAQs about their auctions.

Based on their general rules, there's no need to register in advance to bid at the auction – you would do that on site. You don't need an agent.

You'll need $5,000 (cashier's check) to be allowed to bid, and must pony up 10% in the form of a personal check if you win the bidding.

Those requirements are much, much easier to meet for regular folks than the demands made at foreclosure auctions. That's got us thinking there'll be plenty of looky-loos with $5k cashier's checks wondering if they might just get lucky.

There will be sharks out that day, though, the foreclosure/probate-flipper pros. Do regular Joes stand any chance?

Tinkering Won't Save It

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:18:00 +0000

Unless someone pulls a rabbit out of a hat, 123 44th is not going to sell for what it did in January 2007.

One reason is that no one is getting out whole from 2007 acquisitions these days. We're living in 2004 prices all around town. (See "How Resales of '03-'06 Purchases Are Faring.")

Just one recent example of an '07-'09 loss: 2613 Oak sold for $1.199m, down $186k (-13%) from its March 2007 price.

So, we're not betting on the rabbit turning up in El ~~Porto~~ Norte.

Then why the little tinkering with the list price?

As the property history shows here (click to enlarge), the listing began at $1.475m, just $15k below its Jan. 2007 acquisition price. But not so long after, the price was corrected, upward, to $1.490m – same as the 2007 price.

Whether the change reflected a data entry error or a change of heart doesn't really matter. If this home is going to sell, there are going to be much bigger adjustments in the opposite direction.

The nearby short sale at 201 43rd – a newer home with the same number of bedrooms (3) and a little more square footage at 1800 – isn't going to help at all. It's priced lower now at $1.399m.

And did we mention that the holidays are coming up?

Three Sales, Several Trends

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:43:00 +0000

A splendid ocean-view home down from its peak price. A short sale with a serial-refi history. And a little fixer cottage selling below $800k.

There's no one trend in these 3 recently closed sales. Instead, there's a a little bit of several trends in each of them.

400 N. Poinsettia (5br/6ba, 4550 sq. ft.) is an impressive house that went impressively fast for an impressive price amid a somewhat stagnant Hill Section submarket. (Click highlighted address for pics & details, which Redfin now provides for pending and sold listings.)

The final sale price, $3.855m, is a token $5k above asking.

It's also below the Aug. 2006 acquisition price of $4.1m. Total drop is $245k (-6%), somewhat better off than most 2006-purchased resales this year. (It's now the last entry in this online spreadsheet showing how recent acquisitions have fared upon resale this year.)

Word is that the same buyers flitted from one Tree Section offering to another, having offers accepted in each case for homes near $2m, before moving up to a much bigger, much pricier ocean-view home in the Hills.

This is a problem not all home shoppers have – setting a budget, picking out a nice house (or two), feeling a little indecisive and then doubling down for something far better. Gotta be nice.

649 29th sold short for $1.375m. (Click address for pics & details.) The home offers 4br/3ba, 2650 sq. ft. (including guest house), and needed some updating, despite the cheery, inspired Cape Cod feel to the exterior.

When the listing debuted in May, it was at a stratospheric $1.699m, accompanied by this in the listing:

THIS IS A LIFESTYLE PURCHASE!!

At the time we read that all-caps hype as saying something like, "we firmly believe that you should overpay."

No one did, and $160k later it was officially short – but the sale dropped twice that far, a total of $324k, from start to finish.

Short sales around these parts are often homes bought during the boom that just didn't work out right after the market turned. But 649 29th has been in the same hands since at least 1994, with several refi's along the way, tracking the market's great inflation through 2006, making it a shortie of a different sort.

3609 Poinsettia (3br/2ba, 1300 sq. ft.) continues the run of fairly quick sales for lower-priced cottages in the Trees this year.

After just 5 days of market exposure in September, a deal was in place. The closed price of $792k is up $13k from asking.

This one was a fixer, unlike some other recent cottage sales. Nearby 3600 Elm, which sold in May for $975k, was pristine and cute, and therefore set the bar higher almost 6 months ago.

Some other points of comparison are seen in cottage sales discussed in "Tree Dirt Update" from early September.

With no spec builder demand these days, 3609 Poinsettia has a date with some contractors, but no 'dozer this time – a relief for the neighbors, to be sure, and a nice step forward for the town as well, as we keep a little of that old-time charm and scale.

More Trouble on Larsson

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:31:00 +0000

It's no fun to watch, but a Hill Section listing at 407 Larsson is turning into a disaster.

Regular readers will recognize the home as one that's been on offer for a long time – since mid-September 2008, to be specific. (With some re-lists.)

The owners paid $2.980m for the 5br/5ba, 4850 sq. ft. home when it was new, 4 years ago, in Nov. 2005. Only this past Summer, after about 300 DOM, did they begin to offer it for less than they had paid.

This week it's up with a new agent and another new price: $2.269m.

That's -$711k/-24% off the 2005 acquisition price, and quite a bit lower than the $2.599m list price when MBC last mentioned the property (see "Pushing into '04?") about 6 weeks ago.

And, need we remind you, it's November – the home hasn't sold in 14 moths, and now starts up, er, "fresh" as we approach the holidays.

The new price is a noteworthy $131k cut from the previous agent's last list price. But at this time of year, with a home that's vacant (per the current listing pics), you have to imagine that the cutting isn't finished if they're going to make a deal.

This Summer MBC noted an unfortunate error in a Beach Reporter ad for 407 Larsson. In "Million-Dollar Coupon," we noted that the wrong digit was used to tease a price cut from $3.150m to $2.949m. Instead, the "coupon" said the new offering price was $1.949m.

If the price drops much lower, it may be time to rename that story "Million-Dollar Omen."

Larsson is not listed as a short sale, though the current list price is well below the amount of the first purchase loan, not to mention another loan initiated later.

When this one finally changes hands, it may actually be one of the deals of the year. To be determined.

For some additional perspective, this big home now pencils out to $469/PSF, pretty low, if not unprecedented, for the Hills in recent months:

1042 2nd is a newer (2003) home of comparable size (5br/4ba, 4425 sq. ft.) with its own location issue, right on busy 2nd St. at Sepulveda, huddled up against a large office building.

It closed in August for $1.810m and $409/PSF. (Click highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin – yes, they do this now for sold listings!) (See "Atypical Deal on the Hill" for more on the sale.)

903 10th (6br/7ba, 5120 sq. ft.) is pretty new (2007) and a bit bigger than 407 Larsson. It's got a location issue of some concern, but probably not of the same degree. This home runs along Poinsettia, the main north-south artery through the Hills, with plenty of daylong traffic.

10th recently made a deal (click the highlighted address – Redfin also now shows "pending" listings in their entirety), with a last list price of $2.850m, or $557/PSF, a cut above Larsson.

For more data, see the Hill Section Solds page or the Hill Section Actives page from our 10/31/09 MB Market Update.

407 Larsson has been called delightful by MBC readers responding to prior stories. The problem here is – what's that phrase? – oh yes, location x 3. Larsson is the Oak of the Hill Section. This home is on the "right" side, at least – not abutting the commercial properties and Sepulveda.

Still, 407 Larsson is proving to be one of the huge, sore-thumb examples of how location matters so much more today than it did a blink of an eye ago, during the boom.

Holiday-Season Listings: Advantages?

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:44:00 +0000

You probably remember Summer, but that was a long time ago. Turkey Day is near and, wham!, it's 2010.

So is now – right now – a good time to put your home up for sale?

Conventional wisdom, and most people's experience, would say no. Indeed, lots of listings take the holiday season off entirely and come back in January or February.

But a salesperson's ad in one of the free weeklies lists "11 Reasons to List During the Holidays," and it got us thinking: Is there anything more to this than a mere plea for business?

We'll summarize and paraphrase 9 of those 11 points:

Holiday-season buyers are more serious.
Some buyers must buy by year-end for tax purposes.
Job transferees often start in January; they'll want a house by then.
Buyers have more time to look during the holidays.
Those buyers will face more limited supply due to the ordinary dropoff in listings.
Supply will "dramatically increase" in January, so if you wait to sell, you'll be one of many more options later.
Homes show better with holiday decorations.
Holiday-season buyers are more emotional, so they're "more likely to pay your price!"
Sell now and you can be ready to buy in Spring when more options are available to you.

This pitch does an interesting job of skidding past the basic problems with the holidays: fewer buyers, fewer active marketing days and more diversions, like vacation and family, that preoccupy people who would otherwise be rightly focused on real estate.

Related: some of those "serious" late-year buyers are grinders and bargain-hunters who are in no real hurry, but see their negotiating advantage with longtime listings stuck on the market in the last weeks of the year. The barracudas aren't going to get weepy over stockings and mistletoe and overpay.

It's around this time of year, in our usual market tracking, that we start to see a real dropoff in new listings, but the rush isn't yet a trickle. And not all the homes coming to market now are strategic holiday-listers (if any) or distressed sales (though there are a few).

For some people, starting in November – and presumably running through the holidays unless they're very lucky – is just the right timing for one reason or another.

So what's your experience, either as an RE pro, a buyer or a seller, with late-year listings?

Vote in MBC's new poll, and share your experiences here in the comments. Vote closes Weds. night at 8pm.

Weekend Opens (11/7-11/8)

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 05:12:00 +0000

The dog-trainer had a story Thursday about pricey homes being opened up to the public – "open-house upscaling," they called it.

The point of the story being: if $10m+ Westside L.A. homes are being shown freely to the rabble, it's some kind of sign of the times.

Still, one agent who recently held a $13m home open said: "You'd be surprised at the high-profile people who come through on a Sunday open."

Indeed, and some of them just may come because a little real estate blog sent them.

Here at MBC we'll often call attention to the debuts of high-priced opens, as we did most recently with 2920 The Strand and with Lamar Odom's house (not so high-priced, but high interest). This weekend you could see:

116 Terraza (East MB), still at $10m, and looking increasingly like a fixture on the weekend-opens circuit, open Sun. 1-4pm;

645 9th, a huge, certified "green" house in the Hills, at $7.475m, open Sun. 3-5pm; or

216 7th, an elaborate Tuscan-inspired home on a beach-close, ocean-view walkstreet near downtown, now at $5.595m, open Sun. 1-4pm.

It's hard to say how this selection matches up against the best of 90210 and so forth, but we can boast a short flip-flop hop to the beach, and no booties at the opens – just shuffle in and ditch the sandals at the door. Try that in the Hollywood Hills.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link from the "Property Search Tools" pull-down menu in the top navigation bar.

As always, click any highlighted property address for more pics & details via Redfin. Please report back here at MBC on any open houses you visit – what you like, what you don't like, etcetera.

Hill Section

918 1st won't make any list of "open mansions" this weekend – it's nearly the opposite, despite the $3.4m pricetag.

When the first listing pic is a view from the property, it's probably a lot sale.

And yet it's one of our favorite kinds of open houses, anyway, beckoning: "Come see the 70-year-old cottage that's sure to be razed by the next owner."

The lot is a very decent 10,000 sq. ft. Open Sun. 2-5pm to feature those sunset views.

Sand Section

After trying to sell for 6 months mostly without public opens, 221 3rd (4br/5ba, 4075 sq. ft.) is breaking down and letting the commoners in. (Maybe the sellers read that LA Times piece, too.)

The west-of-Highland home is a bold, newer (2006) Mediterranean that is beach-close with big ocean views.

It's what you want in a walkstreet in the South End.

Priced at $4.495m, pretty much unchanged since mid-May.

Open Sun. 1-4pm.

317 8th is a corner lot at Crest on a flat walkstreet right near downtown.

The listing gamely attempts to tout the features of the current house, allowing for how someone might actually buy the home to live in rather than to scrape, but there's not much heart in it.

Like with our first-pic-is-a-view rule above with 918 1st, we're thinking: If you keep the blue carpeting, you're probably not trying to sell the house itself.

Regular readers know MBC is walkstreet-friendly, even going so far as to label the controversially kid-friendly 7th St. walkstreet a "Great Street." What's interesting is that properties down south just didn't trade much for a long time, but now we're getting some data points that are reducing the mystery and resetting values.

Just across the street, the lot-and-a-half at 316 8th sold recently (closed in mid-Sept.) for $2.150m.

That 4,040 sq. ft. lot went for $532/PSF for the dirt; the regular-size lot at 317 8th is priced at $1.699m or $629/PSF, though of course this comparison is inexact.

A prime, interior flat-walkstreet corner lot at Ingleside/7th (441 6th Place) hit the market Sept. 30 at $1.649m and apparently sold quickly; we'll have to wait to see where it winds up, but that one could pull 8th/Crest down a bit.

Finally, for some historical perspective, that 6th Place corner lot started out $400k less than 440 6th sold for in 2007, before it got a new $4m house on it (active still).

Several data points, a down trend – good for those who'd like some of that sweet land before the kids are too big to enjoy the walkstreet.

317 8th is open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

Ground Down to $6.5m

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:22:00 +0000

One of the truly special properties to hit the market this year has now closed for more than one-third off its start price.

And what a start price it was at 218 Anderson: essentially $10m ($9.988m).

Closed price yesterday: $6.525m.

With a discount from start of $3.463m (-35%), we're pretty confident that will be a record dollar chop for some time to come.

The nearly $3.5m price reduction blows away every other multi-million-dollar price cut discussed in "Some of the Biggest We've Seen" back in July.

MBC said of this home in "Lucky 7's" in late September, when Anderson first posted a deal:

The huge (8br/9ba, 8500 sq. ft.) home on an ocean-view double lot offers all kinds of extras, like 2 masters and almost 2 kitchens (one a "caterer's cooking station") plus a gym and lap pool.

Maybe this is run-of-the-mill in Malibu, the Hollywood Hills or such places, but it's a landmark-type home for MB.

Yes, it's a landmark home, and now, so is the story of the pricing. To their great credit, of course, the sellers didn't hold out too long for too much – they took what was offered. The last list price was near $7m, so they had taken their own ambitions down step by step before this buyer came in.

You may have noted above the live link to Redfin for this closed sale. This seems to be a new feature on Redfin's site, which previously showed only basic info on closed sales and no photos. Now the whole prior listing is accessible – a nice improvement. For more on 218 Anderson, you can also see the listing agents' site for this chattily narrated virtual tour. (One click shuts off the game-show-host voice.)

There's just one listing in MB right now that might possibly beat a $3.5m reduction if it sells, but we're not really expecting quick or drastic action at 2920 The Strand right now.

How About 130+ Days to Sell?

noreply@blogger.com (MBWatcher) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:21:00 +0000

SFR inventory is down this year, but the time required to sell a property is up substantially.

That's one finding from a new analysis of DOM data drawn from MBC's tracking spreadsheets.

We looked at SFR closings from the 6 months spanning the Spring and Summer selling seasons in 2008-2009, basically May-October each year with a little late-April action included.

DOM reported here come from MBC's "True DOM" figure for each property, counting forward from the date a property hit the market till we noted that an escrow had posted. DOM-resetting re-lists would have no effect here.

Looking first at 2009 (click chart to enlarge), the Hill Section's closed-sale DOM figure is a semi-astronomical 174 for 2 reasons. First, of course, sales volume is always pretty low in the Hills. There were 12 closed sales in this limited time span that came into this analysis. (Click here for the Hill Section Solds page from MBC's online spreadsheets.)

Second, and related, with lower volume, a few very longtime listings pushed the average high. The capper was new construction at 218 N. Dianthus at 496 DOM.

The Sand Section had the lightest DOM for sold properties at 108. That's below the average for all areas west of Sepulveda (132), but up substantially from 2008 for this sub-region, as we'll see below. Sales volume was 42 closed sales in this analysis. (Click here for the Sand Section Solds page from MBC's online spreadsheets.)

The Tree Section had the greatest sales volume at 50 sales, but a high DOM figure at 142, a tick above the average of all 3 areas. (Click here for the Tree Section Solds page.)

Now, 2 quick caveats before we go further. First, for both 2008 and 2009, we did not have clear DOM data for a few properties, so they were dropped out of the analysis. The effect should be a wash.

Second, while our DOM figures will vary substantially from other MLS-based analyses for a good reason – re-lists don't work here – the DOM figures were compiled by hand, and may be off by a few days for any given property. Given the vagaries of what "days on market" means to many different people, we think giving or taking a few days here and there has no real impact on the data or analysis.

As we compare 2009 to last year (click chart to enlarge), the first issue to note – not on the chart – is that sales volume was better this year, with 104 closings in this data set, compared to 94 in the time span last year.

However, across the board, DOM for closed sales was a lot higher in 2009.

The fact that Hill Section DOM nearly doubled from 91 to 174 is, again, an artifact of limited sales volume, but a bit striking nonetheless.

Beach-close properties have suffered the most in 2009, with those lucky enough to sell needing 52% more market exposure – 71 DOM last year to 108 today.

The Tree Section was the busiest both years, with 52 sales in 2008 and 50 in 2009, but DOM rose 25 days, or 21%, for those homes that got a deal done.

Overall, SFRs west of Sepulveda needed an extra month to sell this year – 33 extra days, or a 33.3% increase.

That's how Spring and Summer wound up. Now here come the holidays.