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<title>Manhattan Homes Inc. RSS Feed</title><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/index.html</link><description>New York City Real Estate</description><dc:language>en</dc:language><language>en</language><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:rights>Copyright 2009 Manhattan Homes Inc.</dc:rights><dc:date>2010-05-14T20:02:25-07:00</dc:date><admin:generatorAgent rdf:resource="http://www.realmacsoftware.com/" />
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<lastBuildDate>Tue, 13 Sep 2011 11:46:15 -0700</lastBuildDate><itunes:explicit>clean</itunes:explicit><item><title>The Next Best Thing?</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2010-05-14T20:02:25-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ae694a16294ec7974b0d48a31641c28a-26.html#unique-entry-id-26</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ae694a16294ec7974b0d48a31641c28a-26.html#unique-entry-id-26</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA["If the doors of perception were cleansed, every thing would appear to man as it is, infinite."


...But do we really want to go there?   For the NYC Residential Real Estate community the last month has been a hyper one.   No less than four major events exploring social media, networking and the ever evolving technology (marketplace?) ...  Over a year ago I wrote progressively of our need to transform and grow (see post "What's a broker to do?").   Since then the communication vehicles associated with the younger generation have been further embraced by the rest of us.   As reported by Bloomberg in March of this year, Facebook Inc., the world&rsquo;s largest social-networking site, surpassed Google Inc.&rsquo;s search engine in weekly hits to become the most visited Web site in the U.S.   The bandwagon has come to town, but the "bandwagon effect" might also be close behind.   For the business of brokering real estate, it might be prudent to ask what level of participation is healthy for our businesses, and what is the true value realized by adopting the social media tools being presented to us.


In Technology, "the next best thing" often takes on its alternate meaning where "the next best thing" is the lesser when compared to what has already been established.   The desire by some to "find" an income can lead to others taking a step backwards.   I'll give the simplest example I can think of:  when driving at night, I would submit the best way to shift from low beams to high beams and back--given where the technology is today--is by using a foot button on the floor (this was the old way for those of you who don't remember).   The more recent use of a lever off the steering wheel is less practical, slower, and more dangerous, but continues to survive.   It's a shame when a quest for novelty trumps an already established and superior functionality, but it happens often.   The results attained in the digital age can be "a wonderful thing," but they're not immune to the dilution of quality that can accompany broadening the bands that channel information.


The year I was born, Claude Shannon, one of my "mentors and thought provocateurs," (yes, that's him, third row, fourth from the right on my "memoir" page...for those of you who've found it) published the seminal A Mathematical Theory of Communication.   Along with his Communication Theory of Secrecy Systems published a year later, these two articles marked the inception of the Information Age and the information/communication theory that lies behind every computer, the Internet and all digital media.


For Shannon "information" was seen to exist only when the sender was saying something the recipient didn't already know and couldn't anticipate.   Strangely,  finding the best means for transferring that information could be achieved by ignoring content.   Information is turned into bits and communicated as such.   Meaning, too, is ignored--the system can accommodate any selection and not just the one(s) ultimately chosen.   This open application has led to unprecedented speeds and capacity when it comes to communications and its influence on our daily lives and to scientific perspectives has been astounding.   But let's not become enamored with the application merely for application sake.   Fecundity is good, but overindulgence or superfluous consumption can harden your business' arteries and could even lead to professional "heart attacks".


Granted, information theory helps us better receive the "signals" with less "noise", and more of them, but that doesn't preclude our own need to listen to some signals while ignoring others.   This becomes an essential practice as the information increases but our capacity to understand it all doesn't--we ourselves are analog devices caught in our own entropy and living in an increasingly digitalized world.


Some of the speakers at these technology seminars had a lot to offer.   I heard many talk and hawk digital panaceas: portals v. the static websites of old, the changing landscape in SEO, social network integration, etc.   As a broker, the questions that came to mind revolved around which signals were the right ones, and how could I avoid spending time on sending and receiving what's less relevant all while acknowledging my energy is limited.


...Perhaps the best guidance came from Ryan Slack, CEO of GreenPearl Events and the planner of this year's two day event: Real Estate Marketing & Technology Academy.   As a prologue he suggested attendees might want to examine their own needs and then concentrate on just one or two approaches rather than trying to take on a plan that encompasses all, or too many.


I will say there are some people who themselves are quite "broadbanded" (fellow blogger Jonathan Miller is impressive though I'll have to forgive his Yankee fervor if only because he's too young to have rooted for the Brooklyn Dodgers), and these people can assume a greater array of digital participations, but for most of us working as real estate brokers, I think previously acquired knowledge can be the key to proper choices.


...Remember that of all the customers and clients one interacts with (and this is true of the general population as well), only a minority actually (ever!) 

...Time spent on social media endeavors is time not spent on doing the job for contacts already made--and this might eventually injure one's reputation.


...Some time should be set aside to gain a greater understanding and knowledge of one's business which will increase one's effectiveness as a broker.


...Finding balance is a key to longevity in this business (and in life), and each person has his or her own optimal signal-to-noise ratio.


...One should learn to separate ego driven factors from those which will really be productive.   If you truly view yourself as a service provider, then making that your primary goal may call for not participating in the "social media du jour"--the media is not the message; the best solution for your clients--each and all your clients--is.


To our regular visitors this post might seem incomplete without a digression (it's a habit of mine) so here it is:


Those of you who have met or know me recognize my Flower Generation roots (maybe the hair's a giveaway), but anyway in the late 60's the signals carried through that culture's communication channels couldn't have been more pure...for awhile anyway.   Sharing content and everything else followed a reciprocal structure but with no conscious sense of reciprocity--it was effortless and mutually rewarding.   In 1971 I helped organize a free outdoor concert featuring the band Orleans on the Ithaca College Campus.   While listening with friends we were approached by a Mansonesque looking "brother" (this was before the now diminutive "bro'" came into use).   He asked if we would be willing to sell him a cigarette.   Our response was "Oh please, take a couple, no charge."   As he stood with us moving to the beat, he took a few drags then asked "Can I buy a beer from you."   Again our response was, "Please take a can or two, no need to pay, and have a sandwich, if you like."   Orleans was doing great and our new friend was enjoying the concert, his beers, the sandwich, and his cigarettes.   When he finished I saw him look down at the ground for a few moments, and then he turned to me and asked "Do you have a car?" ...the "noise" was back.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Announcing our 13th (and 14th) &#x22;W&#x22;:  a New York City RE Wiki and &#x22;WowPow&#x22;&#x2a;</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2010-04-24T06:00:00-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/810adf54c57536a9ee49a2f0f27f3d8e-25.html#unique-entry-id-25</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/810adf54c57536a9ee49a2f0f27f3d8e-25.html#unique-entry-id-25</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[* WowPow is a new word we'd like to add to the vocabulary.   It means a meeting (online or otherwise) that's established not just for discussion purposes, but also with a specific intent to generate greater influence and opportunities for its participants.


Mistakes are the portal of discovery--James Joyce


Well, I just flew in from the blogosphere, and boy, are my arms tired--if only from being constantly thrown up in the air as I read the misinformation, misunderstandings, misrepresentations and misanthropy expressed regarding VOWs, IDXs, MLSs, the DOJ v.   NAR, REBNY and other matters real estate.   I'd LMAO if not for all the unpleasant ramifications.


When visiting NYC's real estate forums, any informed observer who maintains some immunity to paranoid style is likely to recognize posturing displacing constructive postulation; and opinion, objective examination.   Naivete seems widespread and affective response is too often a poor substitute for clearer, rational thought.   Scant value (and a whole lot of frustration) is the only thing gained while watching this online mental voguing as it forsakes accurate formations and de-contexturalizes what little knowledge there seems to be held within the public's mind.


Each of these subjects--whether it's VOWs, MLSs, or any of the others mentioned--offers a simple constitutive triptych.   The three essential "panels" represent objective elements ruled by scientific reality, subjective opinions seeking acceptance, and factors that might be either, but as of yet, remain unclassified.   What seems to be important here is that all three be acknowledged, and that any expressed thoughts be assigned to their appropriate section.


I may be old school on this, but I believe anyone taking an authoritative stance, or who is in a position to do so, should be responsible for his or her errors and really work toward preventing such mistakes, or correcting them when they're discovered.   To do otherwise reminds me of the kind of silliness demonstrated in the old kid's joke (here's my own chance to be a bit immature) about the young doctor embarking upon a private practice who asks his mentor for the secrets of success.   He is advised to do three things:  one, conduct a thorough examination of your patient; two, present your diagnosis; and finally three--and most important--no matter what happens, always stick to your original diagnosis.   A few weeks later the young doctor sees his first patient who's complaining of stomach pain.   The doctor conducts his examination but fails to really communicate with his client.   Then he proclaims, "Sir, it is my diagnosis that your bowels are locked."   The patient begs to differ.   The young doctor repeats, "Sir, it is my diagnosis that your bowels are locked."   The patient responds, "Doc, I really think you might be wrong about this..." but is interrupted by the doctor who emphatically states, "As I said, I'm the doctor, and it is my diagnosis that your bowels are locked."   "But Doc, if that's it, why am I'm having to go to the bathroom every 15 minutes?!"   The young doctor freezes, then, remembering his mentor's not so sage advise, states, "Sir, it is my diagnosis that your bowels are locked...in the open position".


You get the point: in viewing any situation, what's so difficult about admitting some ignorance or fault and then seeking a proper understanding, to be willing to really converse?


If this makes sense to you and you're ready to talk but also listen to others, expound but also reassess, proffer but take the time to research further, and inquire with sincerity, we plan to provide and host a NYC Real Estate Wiki.   Please stay tuned and watch our navigation bar for Manhattan Homes Inc.'s 13th "W":  Wiki and WowPow...coming soon.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>An editorial plus some:</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2010-03-09T14:04:12-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/340834f736784a332e5fbe4a089fc2dc-24.html#unique-entry-id-24</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/340834f736784a332e5fbe4a089fc2dc-24.html#unique-entry-id-24</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.   Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.


--Sherlock Holmes in A Scandal in Bohemia by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle


During my senior year at Cornell I went to see The Gypsy Moths.   I remember its plot and climactic scene as follows:  Visiting a small town with his skydiving show, Mike (played by Burt Lancaster) has an affair with Elizabeth, a local woman caught in a loveless marriage and the boredom of small town life (played by Deborah Kerr).   Mike is a guy who loves his work and nomadic life but when Elizabeth rejects his request to run away with him after his show, he becomes despondent.   The next day for the finale, Mike is set to perform the "cape jump", a stunt his partner Joe (played by Gene Hackman) announces to the crowd as "so special" that "no one else in the world will do it".   As the depressed Mike plummets toward earth he neglects to pull the ripcord and slams into the ground to the horror of everyone.   I saw this movie with some friends and about 10 seconds into the stunned silence that followed impact one of them remarked aloud, "No wonder he's the only one in the world who does it!".   For me it offered a new interpretation of the old Confucius saying, "Find work that you love and you will never work another day in your life."


But seriously folks, I do love my job and welcome the chance to pull the ripcord every day.   What I don't like is when others seek a business advantage by tampering with my parachute rather than developing a better stunt on their own to draw the crowds.   Ultimately these zero-sum gamers stop a productive dialectic, and deprive the consumer of experiencing the benefits innovation brings.   Please understand, I'm no libertarian seeking laissez-faire.   I respect good laws and other necessary interventions, and even more the spirit behind them; it's seeing behavior that might run contrary to anti-trust and other statutes that has me concerned.


About six years ago--when the net was young--some techies came up with the idea of offering prospective buyers MLS information online.   Establishing this cyber face-to-face introduced a new business model for the brokerage industry and a new level of transparency.   Up until then, brokers who were members of an MLS would have customers come to their office and sit down with them in front of the computer, enter a search and view the properties that came up.   Alternately, if the information were in a listing book that was issued monthly (with printed addenda sent out weekly), they would sit at a conference table with their customers and leaf through the listings together.   Now, this newer online model was easier to use and was "Virtual", i.e. it used a similar procedure but via the internet--and the "Virtual Office Website" (VOW) was born.   (I wouldn't say this constituted a paradigm shift per se, but was more a "mopping-up" operation; however, witnessing the high drama and turmoil that's arisen, you'd think we had entered the "preparadigmatic stage" Kuhn speaks of).


What followed all this was a clash between the Department of Justice and the National Association of Realtors.   NAR was accused of applying a double standard to these e-brokers who were seen as threatening the status quo.   Ultimately, the directives handed down in the DOJ's Final Judgement were true to the traditions of consumer protection, de jure rights in business, and a sense of fair play.   It's our job to recognize and respect the principals behind their decision and prevent the unconverted from grabbing the ball and making an end run.


For some reason NYC has remained not only one step behind, but two.   We still don't have a true and significant MLS, and for some today, VOW's growth and development could end up fettered like that of a child locked in an attic for many years.   If events had followed a natural evolution without undue influence I believe neither would be the case.   I often suspect some positive advancements that time would normally yield have been forcefully displaced by not-so-intelligent design.


So, here's a chance to make-up for lost opportunities and move in a better direction.   Most of us are ready to take these two steps.   If there are any out there who would try to inhibit the establishment of these models and the tools they offer to our buyers and sellers, or orchestrate with any bias or favoritism who is going to use them, they are jeopardizing the public trust and working contrary to the Department of Justice's essential thesis.


This is the extent to which I will express my own feelings on the matter but I can share what others--many others--have said to me, and their interpretation of recent events: 


Taking its cue from DOJ v.   NAR, The Real Estate Board of New York is trying to apply certain features outlined in the DOJ's Final Judgment to the database being shared by REBNY's members.&nbsp;   The REBNY Listing Service, or RLS for short, is not a true MLS and many firms feel REBNY may be overstepping its bounds and authority in this matter by introducing some policies outside the DOJ's intent.   These policies lack rationality and demonstrate technical naivete hiding behind an administrative mask.   Proceeding with no ownership of listing data or content, REBNY is requiring its members to sign a VOW agreement relating to information owned by its individual members but outside of REBNY's domain.   If all this agreement's conditions meet the standards established by the DOJ and are agreeable to and among the firms themselves, then good function exists, but if unlikely and unprecedented features are being inserted, are onerous, and carry unreasonable requirements, then revisions must be made.


To be specific, the REBNY VOW Agreement calls for "random audits" above and beyond the initial audits required of every VOW application, and assigns financial responsibility for these extra audits to the participant being audited.   This is the case even if the VOW software being used is authored, supplied and hosted by an outside service, is unmodifiable by the participant, and has already been audited.   By introducing an inescapable threat of possible financial liability that's randomly applied, many feel REBNY is discouraging or preventing some firms from using this software.   Everyone I've spoken to understands the reasoning behind an initial audit of new software, and the need to audit firms suspected of violating the rules for VOWs, but since it is their own intention to abide by the rules, they feel it's inappropriate to be held responsible for extra audits that are arbitrarily generated.   Ultimately, REBNY, by creating and forcing this scenario, in effect, and in a biased way, is restricting some firms from adding this software to their websites.   One firm owner put it this way, "we are not athletes to be randomly selected for testing in a sport inundated with illegal performance enhancing drugs, and besides, in the few situations where random audits occur (like with the IRS) the cost is assumed by whoever orders the audit."


I personally can't speak to intent nor its importance in all this, but in any case the logic being presented in support of "random audits" simply makes no sense.   I will note the DOJ's Final Judgement itself makes no reference to any "audits" of this kind, nor includes them as a legal requirement.   Furthermore, a review of the VOW policies of MLS's throughout the country has yet to reveal the presence of such audits elsewhere.   Clearly, fairness and good sense calls for alterations to be made to the REBNY VOW Agreement removing this unnecessary obstacle to real estate brokers pursuing a previously reviewed and acceptable business plan and a plan which, above all, benefits the consumer.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>...Your Next Stop: The Twilight Zone</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2010-02-04T22:56:13-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/1b3668e6b0afeecc0bbe709128855394-23.html#unique-entry-id-23</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/1b3668e6b0afeecc0bbe709128855394-23.html#unique-entry-id-23</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA["Here is one hand, and here is another; therefore I know at least two external things exist." -- G. E.   Moore's response to external world skepticism


"...  You might be right, but on the other hand,


I have five fingers." -- John Sidney Kornblum's response for the rest of us


Submitted for your approval...


Take the simple equation .0512(P-.2P)=.0745(.75P-.2P):


If P is the value of a property during its 2008 high and,


if 5.12% was the interest rate available at that time (it was) and,


if 20% of P is used as a down payment and the rest is borrowed and,


if .75P equals its value today i.e. assuming a depreciation of 25%.


Then,


you will lose all the benefits of buying at today's lower prices (when compared to their highs) as soon as interest rates reach 7.45%--a figure many expect in the not-to-distant future.


To put it another way, a property bought at its present price will cost you the same as, or more than, it did during the height of the market if you purchase it at the present price, but when interest rates equal 7.45% or more.


However, if you buy it now before interest rates increase, it will cost you 25% less than it did at the height of the market. 


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>On Broker Efficacy -- The Straight Skinny</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-12-26T13:52:56-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/4b66f3417d6e8b6d5d033f068bdbb58e-21.html#unique-entry-id-21</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/4b66f3417d6e8b6d5d033f068bdbb58e-21.html#unique-entry-id-21</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Recognizing the threat the priest stands and declares, "Men, I will retrieve the oars as I'm sure my Savior Jesus Christ will protect me from any danger".   Immediately, the rabbi also rises and says, "No, no, please allow me, I know Yahweh the God of my people will watch over me and keep me from any harm". 

...In a time when style is favored over content, form over function, belief over knowledge, many people's interpretation of "all men are created equal" has, like the oars from our story sprung from its socket and drifted away from its true meaning:  all men are born equal in rights--an equality that should not be denied by man, his laws, or otherwise.   These are inalienable rights, but the equality they convey does not proclaim each person's opinion or ability to contribute to the success of any project, or to understand meaning and solution, is of equal value, utility, or exactitude.   Clearly, we don't accept everyone as having equal prowess mentally or physically, for each there's a potential and ability that is specific to them.   Sensibility lies in recognizing this reality along with our own limitations and the benefits to be gained by listening to and supporting others better equipped to address the issues at hand.   You'll note I say "good brokers" for we are often victims of another popular belief:  that all brokers are the same, or similar enough to warrant little scrutiny when being considered to represent and guide the home buyer or seller. 

...I've personally experienced few sellers and buyers who really know what must be known to achieve the best sale, or find the best purchase.   They often don't know how to recognize and then circumvent or minimize the negative effects heuristics and cognitive biases can have on reaching a proper decision. ...  Too often they are unaware of how these factors along with different cultural conventions and unfamiliar customs are crucial determinants when communicating and negotiating with their potential counterparty.   They may lack access to data supporting their position, or, if they do have access, are still unaware of salient information that has been omitted, is proprietary, or has been un-procured.   They do not maintain a pool of pertinent resources that can only be acquired over time, and by a professional who's made it a full time job to do so. ...  If merely buying and selling defined success, we as brokers would indeed be superfluous; but if our clients and customers are interested in getting the most for their property and finding the best property within their parameters, we are essential to the process." 


I would note that if the value of the services a competent broker renders was not as great as it is, the market would not support the fees being charged.


...Still, I would bet they touch on factors often crucial to achieving the best success for our clients and factors that were unknown to them, less competent brokers, and others outside the deal.


...Its application can involve the simplest decisions from what order a group of properties are shown and where a broker stands during a viewing, to the manner in which statements are made and the broker's choice of syntax. ...  Their complexity falls into the "too detailed to discuss here" category but the next broker-specific attributes mentioned above--the importance of knowing cultural conventions and unfamiliar customs--is an easy one to demonstrate:


...This is an acceptable practice given that a negotiation is needed to determine one of the ingredients used in deciding which property to buy i.e. the final price.   The listing broker was not familiar with the customs of this buyers culture and was unaware of the very different manner in which ultimata are viewed.   She had been a broker for many years but was naive in this area and did not properly advise her seller how a false ultimatum would be interpreted, and the stricter limitations it placed on his future options if he chose this route.   This would have been easy to explain and, given what the owner really wanted, would have been productive and the mistake avoided, if he only knew. ...  When it was not accepted and they attempted to change position they lost face, the buyer picked the other apartment, and the first apartment remained on the market for many more months and eventually sold below my clients' offer.


In the next case one of our agents was contacted by a foreign buyer who had been abandoned by another broker in the middle of a negotiation! ...  He explained that during the negotiation the buyers had suggested "using green" as part of the deal i.e. giving some cash directly to the owner outside of the transaction.   This is, of course, illegal, and the broker and his seller took this to mean these people were very shady characters and should not be dealt with, and communication was severed.   This was done despite the fact their offer was and would be the best made on this property.   What this broker didn't know, and was therefore unprepared to defuse, was this manner of transaction was standard practice in this buyers' native country (even the tax laws are structured there to take this into account). ...  We were able to subsequently explain to them the problem with doing this in the U.S. and how it would be perceived. ...  This could have easily been done by the other broker or his client had they only known about this custom.


The next example couldn't be more simple and occurred a few years back, involving a huge sale (at that time) in the $4 million range.   A fellow broker had called me seeking advise on a potential deal he had sitting in limbo for over 2 months, and was about to lose despite every suggestion he made to both buyer and seller. ...  The buyers had come close and, with a major concession by the broker on commission, the numbers were about to converge, but still no meeting of the minds.   The broker could give no more and the seller was convinced the buyer would not lose the chance to buy his place for the sake of about $80,000 in price...and frankly the broker saw it this way, too, but the buyer just wouldn't move.   This stalemate went on for more than 10 weeks and still neither side would give, and now the buyer was about to return to their homeland. ...  I told my friend, don't you know, in the country these people come from the number 4 is considered very unlucky, it's like what 13 is here, and given these people's early background I wouldn't be surprised if superstition may still play a role in their lives, but they won't admit it. 

...Last month I personally closed 2 deals, The first was an exclusive that I showed 84 times in 4 weeks, and in our toughest market in 20 years.   I was able to "inspire" such volume by being available 24/7 (indeed, no request to show was ever turned down) and because we knew and had "a pool of pertinent resources that can only be acquired over time, and by a professional who's made it a full time job to do so..." etc.   Ultimately, we had 6 bidders and the seller agreed to go with the only all cash buyer despite the fact their offer was $115,000 less than 2 other bidders. ...  Using an attorney who charged by the hour (a fact their own broker stressed as not being the best of situations), the due diligence performed was in my opinion lazy and uninspired. ...  When I was supplied with the same data given to this attorney, but was willing to run further calculations, it became clear to me the scenario he presented was exaggerated and in some respects outright erroneous.   I prepared a concise explanation to that effect but, with the owner's agreement, decided we weren't going to "pay" for that attorney and his client's learning curve, especially when, following efforts made by me and another broker to assure financing would be available, the next buyer was waiting in the wings with a more favorable offer.   To avoid a similar false interpretation by this new buyer, I synopsized the financial situation and, along with actual numbers and examples, passed the information on to their representatives. 

...The second deal was unusual in that after a negotiation was completed and all terms agreed upon, the sellers needed to change the terms in a way that put my buyer's deposit at greater risk. ...  (Some possible heuristics pertaining to this difficulty in giving up something that is thought to already be in one's possession might include selective perception, system justification, the endowment effect, status quo bias, denial, the primacy effect and/or conservatism bias). ...  Clearly, both parties wanted this deal to happen but the attorneys, too, seemed stymied and couldn't find a solution acceptable to all parties.   Time was running out--the change in terms involved adding "time of the essence" to the deal--and each hour of delay made a contract less likely as the risk continued to increase. ...  By balancing the probability with possible solutions I reviewed the following: the owners were willing to accept the argument of greater risk but were unwilling to change the price; the buyers had to be true to their interpretation of greater risk and assigning a value to that risk. ...  This could be accomplished by changing the contract's deposit (and the liquidated damages in case of default) to 5% of the purchase price from the standard 10%.   The price would remain the same if title was transferred and its true value realized in that event (fair to the seller and true to the original negatiation) but if the less likely default were to occur the default penalty would be an amount acceptable to my buyers. 

...If the reader still questions whether a competent broker's contribution to success is worth the fees charged or not, I will re-direct them to the "war story" entitled "The Board Supremacy" in which we were able to procure a purchase for a celebrity client at a price $400,000 less than another offer being made on the property.
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>12/15/08 Revisited</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-12-15T20:24:00-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/4ab480d688f74445cf49b32e7bf887c9-20.html#unique-entry-id-20</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/4ab480d688f74445cf49b32e7bf887c9-20.html#unique-entry-id-20</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Exactly one year ago today and 3 months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers I uploaded a webcast discussing the downturn which concluded:


"Finally, to speak to the most common inquiry we've had: "How long do you think the recovery will take?", I can give my own thoughts and a prediction. 


From what I've observed through the years and during past financial crises, there seems to be a function in place that echoes Moore's Law and the rate of development in digital technology.


To re-phrase this with a vernacular twist, "1 year is the new 3 years".   That is to say how these things evolve follows old themes, but the speed with which they do so continues to increase with each successive occurrence. 


If you feel that this particular crisis will reach Great Depression proportions, please note that the reversal of that crisis started within 5 years, and a full recovery was achieved 5 years after that.


If I'm right, our bottom should be reached approximately 20 months from early September--that being around May of 2010, and full recovery by the end of 2011.


Also, given that my statement "1 year is the new 3 years" is itself subject to the same forces it implies, these time periods may prove to be even shorter; and of course, if you think this crisis is of a lesser magnitude, even shorter than that."


At that time, these thoughts were greeted with much skepticism and some outright condemnation--today, as then, we stand by our assessment.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Moving right along</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-12-08T13:59:25-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/b0f8d82eeca517e8d396f65f0e4568b0-19.html#unique-entry-id-19</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/b0f8d82eeca517e8d396f65f0e4568b0-19.html#unique-entry-id-19</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA["Long lakes are what the rivers shall be


...What shall we call these messages that pass?--


...	Is what we'll really know?


...The rumor of a body, what it is of what he wants to know


Of what he wants to know, or answer." 


...I recently attended an industry seminar entitled "Thawing the Financial Frost".   All five panelist had impressive credentials and offered some distinct points of view.   The five included a senior economist for the New York Federal Reserve Bank, an economics reporter for The Wall Street Journal, the managing editor of Crain's New York Business, the vice president of Bank of America Home Loans, and a long time NYC attorney specializing in real estate.   What was most interesting was not so much the content of what was said but rather the shared dynamic exhibited (to a greater or lesser degree) by each panelist.


In autumn of last year we entered a precipitous economic situation creating an atmosphere of fear and anxiety.   As one might expect, many, feeling off balance, desperately sought a foothold or something to grab onto in an effort to regain balance and control.   Among the panel (with the exception of the attorney) this symptom seemed to linger.


There is a simplification that goes along with this process.   It calls for taking what in reality are variables and somehow converting them to constants--to stop the motion (now viewed as commotion) and find "solid ground".   This is often done by taking mental snapshots which are easier to view but, being frozen in time, offer two dimensional perspectives that don't really represent what is occurring.


During recent decades more and more information has been introduced into our conscious world and the ability to assimilate much of it has been narrowed to fewer and fewer people.   This has been accompanied by a tendency to impart reverence to those who know what's happening.   This is done when, I would assert, the objects of our attention should be those who know what's going to happen.   This is not a contentious notion.   Those who respect and supplement their own experiences with those of past generations and are serious students of history are in a position to do this with great accuracy. ...  The downturn of 2008 was not a surprise, the sub-prime debacle was not a surprise, the events that have since occurred have not been a surprise, and what happens in 2010 will, most likely, not be a surprise.   By expanding the sources of data to include information outside our own mental kinesphere we redefine standard deviation.   What so many would view as a ten-sigma event--a black swan--and not worthy of consideration as a real possibility is instead recognized as closer in probability, and events more recent in time or greater frequency are viewed against a larger background and are less likely to be overscored.   Preparations to avoid dire consequences or to take advantage of what gamblers call "the overlay" becomes possible.


In 1998, Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund founded by 2 Nobel-winning economists and further attended to by some of Wall Street's star traders, followed a formula that solipsistically assigned zero risk to using their investment model.   The risk they presumed dwelt 10 standard deviations (ten-sigma) away.   This was done when giving attention to more complete data would have shown the true risks involved.   In fact, these risks eventually surfaced big time and required the Federal Reserve Bank to intervene and prevent financial turmoil in the world markets.


In 2004, with the Boston Red Sox down 0-3 to the Yankees during the American League play-offs, the odds makers were giving 50 to 1 odds against Boston advancing and winning the World Series.   The data they chose to use in their calculations included popular but irrelevant factors such as the so-called "Curse of the Bambino" and the fact that Boston had never risen from such a deficit to win a Pennant.   If anyone were to have closely examined the more pertinent statistics available and assign the proper weights as they related to relative talent and performance among the teams, they would have realized the probabilities of Boston winning the Pennant and subsequently the World Championship were closer to 1 in 20.   The house was laying odds way over the actual probability of this event happening and those who recognized this profited immensely from the overlay.


A recent and very simple real estate example involves how the implications of absorption rates were being viewed a mere 8 months ago.   Here we are dealing with an analysis that can be represented as containing two variables: how many active listings are presently on the market and, at what rate they are being sold (this is a bit of a simplification, but workable).   When these two numbers indicate it will take more than 11 months to eliminate the present inventory, lenders ask that the market be labeled as a "declining" one.   Influenced by the overly depressed mental climate rampant in March 2009 and because of the tendency to "snapshot" that present condition, many lost their ability to recognize the speed at which the high absorptions rates could return to "stable" market status.   By not assuming a glut of inventory (which analysis would show as being less likely than perceived by an anxious public) and by realizing the near standstill in sales could not continue (as history and economics clearly shows) the advent of our return to a "stable" market in certain sectors seven months later would not have come as such a surprise.


The issues discussed by the panel were considerably more complex in nature but certainly understandable.   Ultimately, four of the five panelist seemed wary of making any future projections and it seemed that whenever their caution was accompanied by analytic reference, the tendency to assign constant-like attributes to variables affected their conclusions, or led to the lack of any.   Sometimes, when examples were given--and I find myself reiterating this point as I have since last Fall--the historical data presented seemed to ignore the next dimension of variability as it relates to the ever increasing speed with which most things happen as compared to 10 years ago, or 20, etc.


We have been fortunate to be part of the computer age, and while it is unprecedented, its dynamics and the structure of its role can be drawn from the past and much of it influence on the present and future can be accessed through objective examination.


So what you have right now is an opportunity to take advantage of what's to come.   To buck the stilted linearity of common thought, to add to your own calculus the differential and integral kind, and the knowledge its greater dimensionality offers.   To know appreciation will happen sooner than presently anticipated.


...What future awaits when some simple variables of the function already read: buyers' market, lowest rates, biggest incentives, while others have, are about to, or are ultimately bound to turn a corner?


What future awaits for any hard asset when inflation next arrives?


When have you ever seen any residential buyer in Manhattan take a loss when they sold after owning for 5 years or more? 


With these and other positive factors in place, history and the mere presence of so much negativity should help you understand the overlay you have, know the true risks involved, and see the impetus for recovery.


For an update to our 11/9 posting about the new VOWs coming to NYC please see this article in The Real Deal (VOWs aka Virtual Office Websites offer registered clients the most comprehensive online real estate search engines to maximize success). 


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>WOW&#x2c; VOWs&#x21;&#x2c; transparency and a coming Real Estate Revolution in NYC</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-11-09T12:02:48-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/85f2401ab86b9a165295b8c46b8b8f69-18.html#unique-entry-id-18</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/85f2401ab86b9a165295b8c46b8b8f69-18.html#unique-entry-id-18</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Throughout the country for over four decades, real estate firms and individual brokers have openly shared their listing information with one another through Multiple Listing Services.   Each in turn has shared this information with his or her customers and clients.   By reviewing the database, client and broker, broker and customer, have met with quick and genuine success following this method.   During most of this time the NYC real estate community seemed to lag behind.   Many resisted attempts to establish an MLS which would fulfill the need for a more efficient model and help those in quest of greater transparency in NYC real estate rentals and sales.   Recently, efforts have been made to rectify this situation both with the establishment of a quasi-MLS (called the RLS) whose participants are members of The Real Estate Board of New York, and even more recently by formally defining a VOW (Virtual Office Website) format to be used by any member who wishes to offer their clientele the benefits particular to this online software.   Specifically, with a VOW, any client or customer who properly registers with the VOW hosting broker is given access to the same full database the brokers have used when searching listings.   This database has not been available in this manner to the non-professional until very recently and is the result of a judgment handed down by the Department of Justice late last year.


It shouldn't be forgotten that brokers are service providers, licensed by the State to serve both buyer and seller, fiduciary to one, honest presenter to the other, and a professional resource for both.   We are vendors with no personal inventory.   We are here to assist others in the commerce of real estate.   Today, with the advent of Web 2.0 technologies that facilitate better communication, collaboration, interoperability and secure information sharing over the World Wide Web, transparency and the benefits it provides should be enthusiastically offered.   It shouldn't be feared, except by the less competent.   The knowledge and abilities a good broker brings to the selling process are complex, esoteric and too often unrecognized.   For a fledgling broker the first few years are usually dedicated to learning what not to do -- no easy task.   This in turn is requisite for the experienced veteran but still doesn't guarantee they now know what to do.   I've heard many so called top and senior broker's say "you can't 'sell' real estate, the stakes are too high, the principals too immersed in the serious nature of what's happening to allow themselves to be diverted in any way.   You can only try to find what they say they want and make a match."   If this were the case (and for those who believe it is) transparency is indeed, a death knell.   But for those who know their craft, little threat exists.   I've personally experienced few sellers and buyers who really know what must be known to achieve the best sale, or find the best purchase.   They often don't know how to recognize and then circumvent or minimize the negative effects heuristics and cognitive biases can have on reaching a proper decision.   They have difficulty removing the unnecessary hurdles that may exist as part of one's personal psyche.   Too often they are unaware of how these factors along with different cultural conventions and unfamiliar customs are crucial determinants when communicating and negotiating with their potential counterparty.   They may lack access to data supporting their position, or, if they do have access, are still unaware of salient information that has been omitted, is proprietary, or has been un-procured.   They do not maintain a pool of pertinent resources that can only be acquired over time, and by a professional who's made it a full time job to do so.   These resources may include the most potent venues for advertising; the most effective tools for presentation; social connection; systems for distributing and promoting information to other external groups and communities; and outside contacts offering recondite expertise.   If merely buying and selling defined success, we as brokers would indeed be superfluous; but if our clients and customers are interested in getting the most for their property and finding the best property within their parameters, we are essential to the process.


So, it's back to transparency, and bringing it to one of the most sophisticated cities in the world.   Personally, I see no problem with the Efficient Market Theory as a utopian notion, but in a practical sense I've learned there are just too many preserved secrets to make it a reality.   However, it's clear we can benefit from pursuing its tenets.   If, in the digital age, we choose to adhere to old conventions and avoid embracing MLSs, IDX's (Internet Data Exchanges) and VOW's, our credibility as good service providers is at risk.   Each of these tools offers us a chance to better serve the public and ourselves, and to best represent our profession as one worthy of consideration and respect.


(A VOW will be available at this website shortly, we hope you will revisit us and join the revolution).


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>...and the bleak shall inherit the earth?</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-09-05T12:23:44-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/e03576a1c9a33502690fc5712af709a8-17.html#unique-entry-id-17</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/e03576a1c9a33502690fc5712af709a8-17.html#unique-entry-id-17</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA["philistines!"


--William Rufus Wright when learning his housemates had rejected a prospective member for reasons unrelated to her worthiness.


Previously I've mentioned the heuristics and cognitive biases that often rule our behavior and lead to decisions which reflect a false reality.   Since the financial crisis began, the lending institutions who supply credit (and whose subliminal--or maybe not so subliminal--greed along with their disregard for regression toward the mean contributed to the crisis) have now adopted overly strict policies fueled by loss aversion.   Embracing panic as intensely as the irrational exuberance that got them there in the first place, they've come to focus on a new set of attentional biases and illusory correlations that ignore probabilities and inhibit the economic healing process.   To make matters worse, some public advocates, too, have tightened the reins to such an extent as to choke the economic horse or make it walk backwards.   We totally agree with the need for intervention (always have), but overreaction is counterproductive, lacks sophistication and ignores the objective solutions that are available.


Two recent changes in particular come to mind: the institution of the HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct) in May of this year; and certain poorly constructed policies being imposed by Fannie Mae whose past decisions have been called into question.   The first is a noble effort that attempts to reduce the collusion that no doubt occurred between some lenders and appraisers leading to inflated property valuations, but does so in a manner that's introduced a whole new set of problems.   The second involves placing restrictions on buyers' and properties' eligibility for financing that are reactive to past failures but neglect taking into account the more valid reasons for those failures.


The main problem with the HVCC is the severing of communication between the banks and the appraisers.   Granted, this will stop any collusion or undue influence that may occur between the two, but all the productive elements which accompanied this interaction and helped move the process along efficiently and in an accurate manner have also been lost.   Surely a better solution that specifically addresses bad behavior is possible, and in a way that would avoid the slowdowns in loan processing and prevent hiring the wrong appraiser for a particular property.   A more appropriate solution would also prevent the already increasing tendency for qualified borrowers to seek out less regulated portfolio lenders who have less onerous requirements but who also possess the potential to continue the old ways that got us into this mess.


As to Fannie Mae, their policies seem to be in a continual state of flux, a condition that doesn't offer stability, and depending on the policies themselves, offers conditions that are poorly devised and unconnected to reality in a real world looking for real solutions.   One of these which is expected to be more strictly enforced, is the requirement that all condominiums, in order to be eligible for Fannie Mae approved financing, must have a formal written budget that contains a line item equal to 10% of its income to be allocated to the condo's reserve fund.   This is required without consideration of the reserves already present or any established lines of credit that may have been put in place to accommodate future repairs and improvements.   (We will note however, depending on the building and/or the bank, there may be some relief from this requirement, but only upon being granted a waiver by Fannie Mae).   Otherwise, for a building well covered in the event of unanticipated cost to be forced to increase its maintenance charges to meet such a requirement creates an unnecessary financial strain on its tenants and ultimately the economy itself.   Here, too, and as with the case of the HVCC, there are more appropriate ways to address the concerns that inspired this new policy without the negative effects it brings with it.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>This isn&#x27;t Kansas; and when bad news is actually good news</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-06-02T15:17:52-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/a4afaacbcde7434ebfce71fe4bdbbc7d-14.html#unique-entry-id-14</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/a4afaacbcde7434ebfce71fe4bdbbc7d-14.html#unique-entry-id-14</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[There seems to be a strange doubleness here.


--Neil Hertz, Professor of English, Johns Hopkins University


Well, I woke up this morning feeling a bit bi-polar myself, so what better time to discuss two real estate dichotomies: Manhattan v.   Other Parts of the United States, and Housing Starts as Bad News v.   Housing Starts as Good News.


In a survey by Candace Taylor of The Real Deal (see previous post "Springing forward, or falling back") we were asked what brokers were saying to each other about the market.   Our answer was "The most common conversations revolve around the need to properly determine value, [and] find the most palatable way to deliver that information to the sellers...  Buyers, too, are viewed as needing help to properly quantify the new values.   Once sellers, buyers and brokers are on the same page, or at least within the same chapter, the foundation for a healthy, functioning market will return".


That was 3 months ago and clearly most buyers and sellers have now resolved it's a buyer's market and prices have dropped, but to what extent?...there's the rub, and a lead-in to the Manhattan v.   Other Parts of the United States dichotomy.


As was our hope, most buyers and sellers have properly qualified the present market, but when quantify the new pricing most buyers are consulting the change in certain national real estate values to formulate their offers.   The result is lost opportunities to benefit from the favorable discounts that do exist.   What's happening on a national level and what's happening in Manhattan recalls the old idiom of comparing apples and oranges or perhaps more suitably, apples and radios.    Manhattan has experienced a drop in values but not on the same scale as other parts of the country.   This truth is hard to deliver because as brokers--and like Cassandra in Greek mythology--we seem doomed to have our words go unbelieved.   All we can suggest to the skeptics is do your research using local figures; and the best, and universally accepted source for that information can be found at www.millersamuel.com.


The second dichotomy, Housing Starts as Bad News v.   Housing Starts as Good News, seems unexplored by many.   For some peculiar reason only negative meaning is being assigned to reductions in housing starts.   These figures are constantly being delivered as bad news and cause for alarm.   If we can assume most of us are not in construction or its ancillary industries, this news is actually favorable and helps bolster the value of our homes.   These reductions also reinforce the probability of owners remaining "above water" as far as their mortgages are concerned and buoy their chances of weathering the storm.   One of the many reasons the Manhattan real estate market has remained more stable than other parts of the nation is future housing starts were already being affected starting last July when changes in the structure of real estate tax abatements made building less attractive to developers.   Since this crisis began the listing inventory in Manhattan has not had the level of increases we would have experienced if housing starts continued to expand as before.   Again, we see this as good news, not bad.


To review another reason we've seen slower increases in inventory than original expected, please see our previous post "Not Drowning, but Wavering".


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>MRTA (must read to appreciate)</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-05-29T09:04:44-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ab9ceaa1d3c5c494364f5b5e0dc44262-15.html#unique-entry-id-15</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ab9ceaa1d3c5c494364f5b5e0dc44262-15.html#unique-entry-id-15</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Customer:  F.U.N.E.X?


Waitress:  S.V.F.X.


Customer:  F.U.N.E.M?


Waitress:  S.V.F.M.


Customer:  O.K.L.F.M.N.X.


--heard while sitting at the breakfast counter at a T.G.I.F.


When did it all start, this "acronym thing"?


For me it first struck when I started to campaign for JFK (imagine my excitement many years later when we had an accepted offer with JFK, Jr, on a penthouse only to lose it when the owner failed to really own the roof rights).   But actually, I think I had heard earlier rumblings, after all there was FDR to consider, my first real hero.   My other role models included Leonardo da Vinci, Mahatma Ghandi, Martin Luther King, Jr., Louis Pasteur (or was it Paul Muni), Dr. Tom Dooley, Albert Einstein, Albert Schweitzer, Amelia Earhart (I later learned my mother had an appointment to have dinner with her when she returned from her flight around the world--didn't happen), Roger Bannister, Sir Edmund Hillary, Pee Wee Reese, and of course, Superman, the Incredible Hulk, and Green Lantern.   Not to be an old fogey, but I really don't get this Paris and Lindsey stuff.


Soon to follow was graduating from WPHS to get a BA from CU and then returning to NYC and a job at MPI (that was before founding MHI); but it really started to hit when I entered the world of real estate. 


There were the BRs (or BDs) with adjoining BAs and CA closets or better yet WICs; the LRs with DFPs (not to be misrepresented as WBFPs).   They often had wonderful views NSE or W toward the ESB.   Walking into the EIKs w/ or w/o D/Ws we could also eat in the DA.   Even my sacred FDR took on a new meaning.   TLC might be needed, and things weren't complete without the comfort of CAC and a separate L/R with W/D.   We'd find all of this SF in a wonderful F/S (with D/M) building located on WEA or CPW or CPS or in GV or MH or the ES or WS (or in acronym pretenders like TriBeCa, NoLita, Dumbo, SoHo, LoHo and NoHo).


And now, with times so tough (we mourn the loss of CBHK) and the cost of print ads beyond our means, we search for new acronyms to ease our financial burdens.   There's always the WWW to consider as we sit in front of our LCDs (or CRTs if we're behind the times).   Our PDAs, too, connect us to our trusty RLS (as each firm's ITs fight a never ending battle to stop the dreaded GIGO).   We seek new and cheaper venues to show our wares.   We turn to REBNY, NAR and NYSAR for more support.   We discover IDXs and VOWs as future options and see them in action elsewhere as we surf the internet dodging virus infected HTTPs and listening to our MP3s playing in the background.


When will it all end I ask you, The list of FAQs increases every day.   The added pressures drive agents to seek out qualified Ph.  D's to administer EMDR or teach them MBSR.   We must prevail over all this BS (Brain Strain, not Bull Sh**).   And we will, so, FWIW, I say HO, then GFI, and on occasion take some time to LOL.


BB4N, LZ


--Leigh Zaph. (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Good-bye&#x2c; Mr. Chips</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-05-23T08:43:04-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/38b7693e2810745f7b0e4ecb76a5c78d-13.html#unique-entry-id-13</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/38b7693e2810745f7b0e4ecb76a5c78d-13.html#unique-entry-id-13</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[You must be willing to die in order to live.


--Amir Vahedi (professional poker player)


...or to paraphrase Huey Lewis (I knew him when he was Hugh Cregg and a freshman engineer at Cornell):  "The power of real estate is a curious thing, make a one man (or woman) weep, make another one sing".   For most people, purchasing a home represents the biggest investment they'll make in their lives (yeah, yeah, we've heard all this before).   When looking at properties the need for guarantees and perfection often becomes so intense that it thwarts any commitment to buy.   Cognitive biases run rampant in the decision making, and usually toward the negative, but the most glaring incongruity is when the anxiety of making a mistake causes one to make a mistake, which brings us to War Story #7 (others are viewable under "War stories--a sub-blog..." at left).


A few years back I had a well known academician and his wife looking to purchase a new home.   Their parameters as initially presented were simple, and we started to view some appropriate properties.   The wife seemed easy to please, but with each new place the husband introduced some new criterion to be added to the mix: more charm, please; higher ceilings, please; more light, please; make that south light, please; etc., and finally, can we get a nicer view, please.   Well, I believed I'd found the perfect place and told them so, and we set up an appointment.   They insisted on bringing a friend who was a "real estate expert" (and control freak of the highest order).   We HAD to go there in this friend's car, and he proceeded to regale me with his "expertise" intermingled with negative statements about brokers and how they were the scum of the earth, etc.   I don't know what this guy was thinking but...no problem.   The property I had chosen was incredible.   It was a loft with high ceilings (which they wanted), it was in Tribeca (which they wanted), it had exposed brick and wood beams (the kind of charm they had described); the fellow tenants were great (a couple of years later I remember showing Suzanne Vega's penthouse a few floors above to the remarkable composer/lyricist Marc Shaiman and director Scott Wittman along with their confidante Bette Midler--and her little Jack Russell, too); and there were three bright exposures through 10 windows and incredible views of the WTC and the Statue of Liberty (satisfying the most recent criterion submitted by the husband).   When we walked in the wife's jaw dropped, the "expert's" jaw dropped, and I thought I had a winner for sure.   I then turned to the husband, his face had turned red and he started to sweat profusely as he looked at what was before him.   Then, without saying a word, he walked over to one of the 4 huge windows facing the Statue of Liberty, opened it, stuck his head out and looked straight down at the ground and proclaimed, "But this space has no views"--honest to God.   The wife looked at me in apologetic horror, the expert rolled his eyes, and I realized what was going on, and declined to show them anything else after that.


I just don't feel comfortable selling to people whose anxieties are such a determining factor when choosing their path through life.   I do understand and respect anxiety and have had more than my share, but the bottom line is the people I've seen who make the best real estate decisions do so based on analyses free of bad heuristics and with little influence from their anxieties.   The couple above did eventually buy (not through me), but what they bought lacked most of the things they wanted (it was a smallish "dungeon" half underground, and one, which over the years, appreciate at about half the rate of the place I'd shown them).   I think what happened here was their final decision was probably made on a day where everything was going right:  great things were happening at work and at home, the weather was beautiful, a book or paper was accepted for publication, etc. i.e. minimal anxiety was present, and this ruled their decision and not the property's attributes.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Have you ever gotten to second base?</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-05-20T14:29:57-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/c6232244ba059b06bc2b59a75ff02ca7-12.html#unique-entry-id-12</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/c6232244ba059b06bc2b59a75ff02ca7-12.html#unique-entry-id-12</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[If you've seen Manhattan Homes Inc.'s client list you probably know I'm a "star struck" kind of guy (my show business friends use a different expression which is unprintable here).   Even the salespeople I've hired (or married) are or have been actors.   Karin Wolfe, who has a great set of pipes, performed for the President at the White House, originated the title role of Gigi in the Tony Award winning Broadway musical, and for many years was Mary Anderson on Days of our Lives. 


Anyway, one of my favorite TV shows is Inside the Actors Studio with James Lipton (BTW, his wife, Kedakai, is a real estate broker here in NYC).   If you've watched you know at the end of each show Prof. Lipton concludes by asking his guest 10 questions derived from a similar list compiled by Bernard Pivot, who's own list was inspired by the so-called Proust Questionnaire.   I recall similar questionnaires or "confession albums" being secretly passed around my junior high school, and my embarrassment at not knowing what a French kiss was.   A copy of some of the questions Proust answered appears below; my junior high school questionnaire does not (another unprintable item). 


Well, in real estate we each have our own "Proust Questionnaire", a set of questions we ask each buyer to help determine what they want.   I suspect there's much overlap among brokers in this regard, but some questions can often yield very revealing answers.   Supposedly, actors are prone to ask themselves or their directors "what's my motivation" and for us, as brokers, knowing what lies in the heart of our buyers can impact success.   After some interaction it usually becomes clear where a buyer is "coming from" (and where he and/or she wants to go), but sometimes it's not.   When I'm stumped I've devised a special question to add to my own "Proust Questionnaire".   It is


If you were to be granted one super power, what would you choose:


(a) the ability to be the best in the world at any and every sport you chose to play


(b) the ability to speak eloquently in every language known to man


(c) the ability to play every musical instrument at the top most level of virtuosity


or


(d) the ability to heal anyone suffering from disease by touching them


How would you answer?


These are the questions from Proust's questionnaire:


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Ah wonna-ful&#x2c; ah wonna-ful&#x2c; but please&#x2c; turn off the bubble machine.</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-05-15T09:45:47-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ef687516b76234616ea36bd6af2dabd3-11.html#unique-entry-id-11</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ef687516b76234616ea36bd6af2dabd3-11.html#unique-entry-id-11</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[(A Baby Boomer reference with apologies to Lawrence Welk / Go retro, Millennials, and you'll find out what I mean)


Last night, The New York Observer, New York's only Leftist, Rightest, Centrist newspaper held its Third Observer Living Exhibitors Showcase.   Co-presented with LX-TV's Open House NYC, this biannual event offered Developers and other Real Estate Professionals a chance to show their wares to brokers and the public.


Part of the event included a series of panel discussions with well-known experts addressing everything real estate from apartment design to shadow inventory.   The last group to speak was particularly interesting.   The panelists were Pam Liebman, President and CEO of Corcoran (I knew her when she started as an office manager--what a success story!)  ; Dorothy "Dottie" Herman, President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman (don't know her personally); the lovely, well spoken Ivanka Trump (I'd like to know her); and the ubiquitous (and perhaps omniscient) Jonathan Miller.   I know Jonathan and he's the mastermind behind the super real estate blog, matrix.millersamuel.com.   Jonathan explains in his blog that its name is not derived from the movie The Matrix but instead, connotes "a cross-section of market information"...but believe me he's one guy who understands the deeper meanings of matrix theory, linear regression, weighed means and correlation coefficients.


The four of them covered a lot of territory regarding the present state of affairs.   I thought this was done with caution and a new reserve, but beneath it all I perceived a subtext of positive things already happening and a sense that more lies ahead.   The audience, mostly brokers, seemed to sigh in unison at any expression of optimism.   (The other audible sounds occurred when the moderator asked to see if there were any potential buyers in the house, and you could literally hear the rustle of my fellow brokers reaching into their pockets for business cards, and see a perceptible shift of the crowd toward the hand raisers).   As for me, I'm willing to stick my neck out on this one and be overtly optimistic.   Oh, BTW, Steve Kliegerman, Executive Director of Development for Halstead Property, and a panelist from earlier in the evening has expressed similar optimism; and I can tell you from past conversations he has accurately anticipated every market shift over the last ten years including the downturn at a time when very few knew it was going to happen.


But back to the neck sticking out part (what?!).   I'll put it this way, my bio mentions I like tournament poker.   Tournament poker's a different animal.   Put me in a cash game and I get slaughtered; but in tournament play I have 6 wins and 15 final table appearances.   When in a macro environment it's all about utility, and this translates well to our situation.   When it comes to defining a bubble, economic, real estate or otherwise, an integrated analysis of utility of usage, purchasing power and speculation is the name of the game.   So the question arises: have we as Manhattan real estate owners experience a bubble burst (and the irreparable damage this metaphor implies) or is this just a very, and I do mean very, hefty correction?   I think the latter is most likely (am I the only one?), not because I'm some manipulative, self-serving real estate broker in deep denial, but because I "really, really" think this will prove to be the case (do you hear me, Sally?).   On a national level the fundamentals fit best with the former (pop!).   They've taken a different course, and THAT recovery will follow a different path.   But I still contend Manhattan will prove to have hemorrhaged less and will heal faster than the rest of the nation, and the world.   This isn't to say we're not dependent (no truer double negative's been spoken), but we are also unique in many ways, and capable of many things.   To view the extent of Manhattan's real estate ills we must consider our still strong utility of usage, the wane (quite temporary, I say) in purchasing power, and the relative lack of speculation to arrive at a proper diagnosis--and it ain't a piece of bubble skin lying on the floor.   The lesser variables constitute an intra-active coalescence of job volume, level of salaries, and the public's state of mind, but the present and anticipated range of each of these elements is simply not that extraordinary, and seems to confirm the big correction scenerio vs. major calamity.   Buying power, the ability to support high pricing, ever increasing international appeal despite a global downturn, a returning New Yawk optimism, and yes, plenty of utility all indicate we are in for a pleasant surprise.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>The Board Supremacy</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-05-13T15:23:38-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/595bb8e9641a75bbbd402c071cfa92ab-10.html#unique-entry-id-10</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/595bb8e9641a75bbbd402c071cfa92ab-10.html#unique-entry-id-10</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Last night I attended another one of those great REBNY (The Real Estate Board of New York) Inside Secrets of Top Brokers seminars.   The panel consisted of four real estate attorneys (attorneys are brokers, too, you know), and the subject was "Deal Makers/Deal Breakers: Legal Titans Speak Out"...and speak out they did.   With all the anecdotes, questions, and answers, my own synapses began to fire.   (Yes, it was me who asked if we're required to make a disclosure when a property is haunted).


It has been said that when we face death (our own) we enter a series of five mental stages as defined in the K&uuml;bler-Ross Model.   When death is unexpected and very imminent there often occurs another stage called "the retrospective" or so-called "watching your life flash before your eyes".   Well, listening to these guys was like being pushed out of a plane without a parachute, and my many past adventures brokering real estate started to hit me pell mell.


When I began this website in 1998 our original navigation bar was the 5 W's, i.e.   "Who, What, Where, When, Why (and How)" compliments of Rudyard Kipling (or was it Doris Day in "Teacher's Pet"?).   Since then we've added a few more W's--just look to your left, folks--and yesterday's seminar inspired me to add yet one more which we will call "War Stories..." and here's its first entry:


This is an easy one to pass along since my client later told the story on The Late Show with David Letterman.   I had found a wonderful place for this well-known actor, but in a co-op, which meant dealing with an admissions committee.   It had been a tough deal from the start especially when another offer arrived from a different buyer, and for $400,000 more.   In this particular case I was the buyer's broker and successfully convinced the seller and his broker to go with my person even though it was for less money.   The details of how I did this will remain a trade secret, but I will say it was in large part a matter of understanding the seller's concerns and addressing them in the best way.   Anyway, we got the contract signed, the board package completed, and were only awaiting an interview.   Unfortunately, when the call came, my Oscar winning buyer was down in Georgia filming a movie directed by another Oscar winner--a heart throb in his own right.   When I called to tell him it was time to come to NY, he was conflicted.   Now understand, this guy was a real sweetheart, brought up right, super smart, selfless, (and a great impressionist, too--his "Mike Tyson" had us rolling on the beautiful hardwood floors).   The trouble was he was in the middle of shooting and didn't think he could leave.   I told him he really had little choice and urged him to try and make it happen.   The story goes (as later told to David Letterman) he had to go to the director to try and explain the situation.   He was apprehensive about what the response would be, but as soon as he mentioned it was regarding a board interview the boss said "hold it right there, say no more, we recently bought our own co-op and you absolutely MUST go; when a board calls, you answer...it won't be a problem, we'll shoot around you for a day or two".   So, with a nice jacket, a chartered jet, and a pre-interview broker-client briefing at The Mercer, we completed our deal a few days later.


If you enjoyed reading this true tale, you can read more "war stories" by clinking War stories--a sub-blog....


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>When it comes to innovation&#x2c; war is swell.</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-05-11T09:23:49-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/f65398bb9da4737d39ee7729f70633e2-9.html#unique-entry-id-9</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/f65398bb9da4737d39ee7729f70633e2-9.html#unique-entry-id-9</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA["I hope you know,...this means WAR!"-- Daffy Duck


Yes, indeed, we have entered a war of sorts and history shows there's nothing like a war to goose the technological mind.   The geeks gather, the directors demand, and the warriors want for new weapons to effectively engage the enemy and vaunt victorious.


Of late, real estate brokers are beginning to face a zero sum game, and finding the tools to prevail is paramount.


The toolmakers, too, are wide-eyed and feeling the crunch.   They are constantly competing to attract impatient end-users imploring, "give me the means to maintain my mantle of gallant guide to balking buyers and spooked sellers demanding concrete counsel and swift solutions."   Everywhere, reasoning real estate professionals are recognizing it's time to revise or replace rusty software and participate in the next paradigm shift...(but enough with the alliterative allocutions, already).


The "war" we speak of could be viewed not as an altercation between brokers but as old conventions grappling with a nexus of innovation and the promise of greater viability, between obsolescent methodologies and the advances generated by a more sophisticated real estate market.   Proponents of each side exist, advocating their positions.


The other "war" among competing digital service and software providers is also heating up and is more hand to hand.   It promises increased opportunities to brokers and the public at large.   With tough times as the stimulus, we can all benefit from this hyper, digital activity.


In my last post I discussed the brand new "map feature" that's being used by Manhattan Homes Inc. and other firms.   It has revolutionized our broker-side search module--and we suspect much more is coming down the internet highway.   In the not too distant future we foresee NYC brokers offering their registered clients and customers unique and powerful search engines via the internet that are interoperable in nature.   They will provide to you, as our patrons, and us, as your brokers unprecedented communication tools that are collaborative, symbiotic and ultra-efficient in function.   These "super" search engines will offer 24/7 connectivity while yielding information about all, or nearly all available listings that fit your parameters, and not just the exclusive or in-house listings of the broker you are visiting (as is presently the case).   This will help form greater alliances for yet another "war": the battle against the damaging economic consequences we've all experienced over the past year.   Today and in the future, those who seek help and guidance from the real estate professional will expect greater competence--so much more is at stake.   Simply put, it's all about having broader access and a higher level of transparency.   If this occurs it could be groundbreaking and a defining moment for the future of residential brokerage in Manhattan.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>That&#x27;s one big step for man&#x2c; one humongous leap for mankind.</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-04-30T11:55:06-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/7b1d510b65bd624b871fb1cef9f488fa-8.html#unique-entry-id-8</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/7b1d510b65bd624b871fb1cef9f488fa-8.html#unique-entry-id-8</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Growing up as the son of a French mother and a Greek father (no "Freek" jokes, please) I had a chance to spend many summers in Europe, traveling, getting my Certificat D'assiduite at the Universite D'Aix Marseille, and eventually being admitted to the Ecole de Medicine of the Universite de Paris (didn't go folks, it was the 60's and I had "better" things to do); and if this all sounds a bit pompous I do apologize (sort of)--it must be my French genes kicking in.   Anyway, with all of this, the thing that impressed me the most (I was young) was the subway map system for the Metro in Paris.   In those days each station had an electronic map.   Each subway stop on the map had a button.   If you pressed the button for the stop you wanted to go to, the map lit up showing you the best route to take from where you were to where you were going, showing all transfers, etc...how great is that, and why don't we have it here in NYC...50 years later???   Geesh!


But to get to my point: as of this week a new twist has been added to the old RE mantra of "location, location, location", and it has to do with how brokers can search for listings in a given area.   RealPlus, LLC which supplies software to Manhattan Homes Inc. as well as many other firms in NYC, has introduced a special map feature to it's listing search engine for brokers; and it's a super powerful one.


After entering the usual buyer parameters e.g. price range, type of property, amenities, etc. the broker is presented with a map of the city (zoom-able, of course).   He or she can then define the area the buyer wants to search, not just by general or predefined neighborhood, but in ANY way they choose to specify.   You can trace it out EXACTLY as you please, for example "circle" Fifth Avenue from 59th to 110th, add another trace of Park Avenue from 72nd to 92nd, add 2 other buildings you like outside those two areas, decide to include parts of the West Village or SoHo if they are also a consideration...the choices you make are unlimited and not restricted by the software's design.   Next, press search and all the active listings in the area(s) you've selected appear as "markers".   Click on each marker and they "open up" showing more information as to what they are.   Each marker (by it's shape and color) also tells you what kind of property it represents (e.g. is it a condo?   is it a townhouse?   is it a co-op?--assuming you asked to see all).   Want to filter these results further?   Go change the original parameters (e.g. price range, etc.) and the map will refresh and show you the new adjusted results.   Amazing, really.


Maps of listings have existed on many websites and as a part of many brokers' in-house software for years, but searching and viewing listings in specific areas without returning some superfluous results has been impossible, that is, until now.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>You say tomato&#x2c; I say potato...</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-04-24T11:30:40-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/80bc97f3dfc3aef4855675d4682b3a07-7.html#unique-entry-id-7</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/80bc97f3dfc3aef4855675d4682b3a07-7.html#unique-entry-id-7</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[Yesterday's Interfirm Forum at The Real Estate Board of New York included two speakers addressing the present state of the NYC real estate market.   The first speaker, an economist with one of NY's largest residential management/brokerage firms, emphasized the greater importance of individual income (how much people are making) over jobs (how many are working) as a determinant of market strength.   The second speaker, a principal with one of NY's largest full service property sales companies specializing exclusively in the sale of large investment and user properties stressed otherwise, insisting on the greater importance of jobs over income as a determinant of market strength.   Many in the audience wondered, who's right?


In using the concept of homology we often need to consider two results or representations that seem alike through common function but whose differences become evident upon examining their different histories, e.g. for early biologists the tail of a fish and the tail of a whale were thought synonymous but when they realized one tail moved horizontally while the other, vertically, the discovery and further implications of their very different origins eventuated.   The converse of this can also be true.   So what am I saying here?   Ah, nothing...  I'm really quite out of my mind and flying off on some weird tangent--perhaps the result of too much "whatever" during the 60's; but, to get back to the point, and being mindful, we see no conflict between these speakers once we consider their specific positions and clientele.   Very simply, the economist, coming from the residential brokerage side sees success derived from selling to those individuals who remain capable but need sufficient income to qualify under the new, stringent requirements for loan approval.   Alternatively, the commercial broker, who deals with large multi-unit buildings, attributes success from having a fully occupied income producing property supported by a complete rent roll.   As such, he's most sensitive to the vacancies that occur when tenants leave or are unavailable because of lost jobs.   It's also interesting to note that in assigning actual value to "product", the residential broker tends to use the comparable approach (looking at what others have paid for similar properties), while the commercial broker is more likely to use the income approach (defining value by looking at how much money the property is supplying to its owner), and this further reflects the reasons behind their different interpretations of what's most relevant.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Not Drowning But Wavering.</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-04-15T09:30:29-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/68342488236369e16c80793209ff6aa8-4.html#unique-entry-id-4</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/68342488236369e16c80793209ff6aa8-4.html#unique-entry-id-4</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[(with apologies to Stevie Smith)


A reader asks, "What's going on with the high-end market?"   Our last two posts have been about low-end activity but that question remains:  What IS happening with the high-end market?


Not a whole lot.


In recent years Manhattan Homes Inc. has predominantly served this segment of the market, helping buyers and sellers in the $3-5 million plus price range.   Now, we have an unusual situation brewing:  as far as we can tell the lack of "movement" has not been obligatory but rather by choice.   This is true of both buyers and sellers.


For those of you familiar with the approval process practiced by co-op boards in NYC (and please note: co-op apartments account for around 75% of all residential ownership), included with each purchaser's "application" is a full disclosure of their financial status.   As the broker, we see income, assets and liabilities, and though this information must remain confidential, we can say our observations at these price levels have rarely revealed circumstances even remotely approaching "borderline".   The buyers have been cash rich, income rich and their debt to income ratios have usually been at 15% or lower.   Even if we were to assume these buyers' investment portfolios dropped 50%, their buying power has remained within acceptable limits.   Their decision not to buy is exactly that: a decision, and not a necessity.   Right now, many a buyer wants something new but can't bring themselves to do anything about it, or their thoughts go back and forth between wanting to do so and not wanting to do so.   As for the sellers, their profile is similar.   Whatever losses they've suffered have not threatened their ability to hold on to what they've got, and they, too, have simply withdrawn from the market--for now.


Of course, there are exceptions.   Clearly, victims of the Madoff debacle who were fully invested with him have been truly devastated and have been compelled to sell, or are no longer viable buyers.   Also, individuals or families with single wage earners who have been laid off or "shown the door" are vulnerable, too.   But these situations along with a few others of similar effect represent a small minority.


What is going to happen?   Recovery--and this could happen sooner than many think.   There are several variables that affect a bad economy and some have fixed life spans that can influence the speed of fiscal convalescence, but two--the situation described above and the decision by banks to lend or not lend (the money's there folks)--can legitimately be described as a simple switch that can be toggled at anytime, and this...is a good thing.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>What&#x27;s a broker to do?</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-04-11T13:15:35-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/8cc3a68385a4d505a578b6826b305c28-3.html#unique-entry-id-3</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/8cc3a68385a4d505a578b6826b305c28-3.html#unique-entry-id-3</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[So..., times are tough, business is slow; but wow, what an opportunity to court a new business model.


During the 1987-1993 downturn I remember the shift that took place as some early bricks and clicks prototypes were being developed.   As one of RealPlus' first clients, Manhattan Homes Inc. had already transitioned to a full computer based listing system and was able to temporarily downsize and setup each agent with his/her own home office, computer, and full dial-up database access.   (Today, RealPlus, LLC with Eric Gordon at the helm has become THE hub feeding all listing data to the Real Estate Board of New York Listing System as well as to numerous other NYC residential brokerage firms).   That setup helped us survive during those lean times and allowed us to bounce back at the end of the recession.   Still, digital development was in its infancy, and our clientele steeped in 20th century convention, so once revenues returned, we regressed to the real estate traditions of the past. 


Since then, efforts have been made by most firms to move with the times, but not, we feel, to their true potential.   Today, I see younger agents advancing methods that their managers and company heads do not yet fully understand.   As the customer base widens to include more Millennials and Generation Xers with their particular worldviews, and as Boomers too, evolve into cyber devotees (even my 95 year old father is computer literate and uses the internet daily), many of the old guard is recognizing that listening instead of talking might be prudent.


Looking at the present selling environment this adaptation is even more crucial.   In last month's entry I projected that the low-end market would be the first to re-activate.   This is proving to be the case, in sales and in rentals.   The demographic trend of it's participants is toward the first wave of Millennials--people in their mid to late twenties--and these buyers are a very different breed, indeed.   They are the first digitally native generation and how they approach life and life decisions is new and unique.   How we as brokers communicate with this new clientele needs to be different, and the business model we choose should be influenced accordingly.


It's time for us to establish a true digital core, not as a department, but as our main design template.   We are representatives and service providers with no personal inventory and this conversion offers us efficiency, lower overhead, and very few drawbacks.   Our marketing funnel should account for the ways in which awareness has changed.   Note: these new buyers are smart, technically oriented, and thirsty for knowledge.   Studies show they process onscreen information five times faster than previous generations.   How this information is presented should take certain traits into account.   These buyers are socially dependent networkers with 60% using word of mouth for decision making.   They are fun loving gamers, expressive and prone to customizing.   They are respectful of previous generations but impatient, too.   They are avid multitaskers who tend to integrate content their own way.   We in turn need to become cohorts and join the fun.   Make ourselves part of their conversation while letting them be themselves.   We should share, but also seek their opinions; they expect both.   Be straight, give them what they want and in the way they want it.   And do all these things posthaste!


Finally, when the high-end luxury market returns, more Boomers and prior Gens will re-enter the fray and ratios will change, but I suspect many will have evolved and, like my Dad, be receptive to this new business model.   Determine it case by case, and if it seems best to "go analog" with any of these over 45ers, you longtimers know what to do...just don't feel you need to use carbon paper.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Springing forward or falling back?</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-03-22T07:03:00-07:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ce4beb7fe3cdf01ab5ff93bbdfd20fb9-2.html#unique-entry-id-2</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/ce4beb7fe3cdf01ab5ff93bbdfd20fb9-2.html#unique-entry-id-2</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[This past week we participated in a survey of real estate brokers conducted by Candace Taylor for an upcoming article in The Real Deal.


Excerpts from that correspondence follow:


CT:  How is the early spring market shaping up so far compared to other


early spring seasons? 


MHI:  In past years the spring market was just a continuation of the high activity that started in late January/early February, fueled by Wall Street bonuses and a robust feeling of economic optimism.   That didn't happen this year, and it isn't happening now.


CT:  Where are the strongest and weakest parts of the market?


MHI:  Actually, all parts are weak right now, and the "strongest" among these we'd still characterize as weak.   When activity does increase, we expect the strongest sector will be the low-end market.   First time buyers will have the advantages of easier financing, a chance to buy more for their money when compared to the disappointments of last year, and they won't be burdened by the need to sell other real estate (which is no easy task) to proceed with their purchase.   The high-end market will need to wait a bit longer.


CT:  What are brokers saying to each other about the market, their


deals, etc., while gathered around the water cooler?   What's generating


the most buzz?


MHI:  The most common conversations revolve around the need to properly determine value, find the most palatable way to deliver that information to the sellers, and help them accept a marketing plan with the best chance for success.   Then, the second part of this discussion tends toward reviewing the negative effects produced by other real estate professionals who aren't recognizing the shift in values, or who are, but fail to communicate it to their sellers.   Buyers, too, are viewed as needing help to properly quantify the new values.   Once sellers, buyers and brokers are on the same page, or at least within the same chapter, the foundation for a healthy, functioning market will return.


CT:  What kinds of creative measures are you or your colleagues taking to


get deals done?


MHI:  There are certainly a lot, and most involve some kind of departure from the old ways and a search for some new panacea.   Some of the new ideas are indeed innovative, but others are merely grasping at straws.   When it comes to each broker or firm's survival, time has become a big factor, and we'll soon know what works and what doesn't.


CT:  How has your business changed to adapt to the post Sept. 15th


(Lehman Brothers collapse) world?


MHI:  Finding sellers isn't a problem, but we're very actively pursuing buyers using a more passive approach.   Clearly, buyers need to reconcile two conflicting emotions, they fear or mistrust the present market but still want to improve their personal domains.   Right now, their fear is definitely superseding their desire to find a better home.   Very few are consciously looking.   They're no longer looking at the classifieds, display ads or searching the web to buy properties the way they once did.   We need to stimulate buyer interest through other means--by connecting and supplying information to them using a different type of communication.   For example, if they're no longer looking at advertisements, but are still reading the papers, magazines, blogs and other websites, make your listings known through articles and general discussion.   Use any venue that serves to present your information in a manner that will be discovered by someone who is NOT looking.   We think many deals made in 2009 will seem serendipitous.   Purchaser's who thought they were not going to buy will somehow come upon their real estate bliss "by accident".   Brokers may end up being viewed as lucky, but as Pasteur observed, "Chance favors the prepared mind".


CT:  Anything else you've noticed that is surprising/different about


current market conditions?   Any trends you're seeing?


MHI:  Things are definitely different but not surprising--history tells us what to expect.   As to trends, we believe there is a dominant one on the horizon: To paraphrase Elvis, "A little less form, and a lot more function, please".   The strong momentum that gave so much value to "style" in selling is gone.   Future buyers will expect their brokers to supply concrete answers to many questions, and answers which relate directly to the process and the properties they're considering.   Honesty, knowledge and rendering accurate analyses on all levels will be the essential attributes of every salesperson.   The public knows this is a time to be cautious and many brokers will need to transform themselves if they expect to succeed.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Reactions to our &#x22;Will real estate survive?&#x22; video message of 12/15/08</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-03-01T09:21:54-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/01aced9370597ec9394e928b2c8a195a-1.html#unique-entry-id-1</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/01aced9370597ec9394e928b2c8a195a-1.html#unique-entry-id-1</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA[A lot of you had something to say regarding our webcast (it was originally uploaded before the holidays, and is still viewable on this site: see "Will real estate survive?"   or you can see a transcript here).


Our prediction that the contract volume from the 4th Quarter would probably not exceed 25% of what it was the same quarter in 2007 was thought to be radical by many, but has since proven to be exactly right as reported in The Wall Street Journal, January 30th ( see: www.wsj.com).   So, we were on the mark, and thank you for your kudos--though this in no way made the news any less disturbing.


The other most common response regarded my discussion of anticipated inflation and what, based on past evolution, we feel its affect will be on real estate performance and values.   Many of you said something along the lines of, "what are you talking about, the real concern has been disinflation or deflation"; well, that's true, ...so far.   The point I was making here involves looking further ahead.   I think the past clearly tells us deflation is most often a precursor of inflation, and that the policies being put into place will eventually call for the type of monetization that produces an inflationary response in the economy.   I reiterate, in the absence of the lending stoppage--which I contend is the most temporary element in this whole crisis--owning real estate is "where it's at".   Having owned, bought and sold during past inflationary cycles, I've found with real estate (versus say, equities), pricing has responded quickly, and has more accurately reflected changes in the true value of the dollar.   Also, as I said in the webcast, during such times real estate assumed its function as a hard asset, and is a desirable investment vehicle during these less stable times.   I can remember the ease with which our portentous mortgage payments became chump change at the completion of one of these cycles, and how the money needed to make our monthly payments was minimal compared to the enhanced value of our properties.   This as an event will be realized by those of us who are able to invest now, or hold on to what we've already acquired.   For the brave and confident, there is great opportunity here, if you can make it work financially.


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).
]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Transcript of 12/15/08 Webcast</title><dc:creator>info@manhattanhomesinc.com</dc:creator><dc:subject>&#x7c; Webitorials - - Our Blog &#x7c;</dc:subject><dc:date>2009-03-01T06:30:15-08:00</dc:date><link>http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/46ad31c1a2d263c009d22ca3628a0fc9-6.html#unique-entry-id-6</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.manhattanhomesinc.com/page15/files/46ad31c1a2d263c009d22ca3628a0fc9-6.html#unique-entry-id-6</guid><content:encoded><![CDATA["Hello, My name is Leigh Zaph.   I&rsquo;m a real estate broker with Manhattan Homes Incorporated in New York City , a job which I&rsquo;ve held for over 30 years.


Recently, many of you have contacted me to discuss the present economic climate and how it is affecting the value of your homes.


What Manhattan Homes and our fellow brokers have experienced since this "crisis" began could most accurately be described as a virtual halt in the market. 


To be perfectly frank, we&rsquo;ll be very surprised if contract volume exceeds 1/4 of what it was during this same period last year. 


As a third generation real estate broker who has worked during similar, but less intense, market downturns, and having benefitted from the advise of my grandparents who brokered and invested in real estate during the Great Depression, this situation is not that unfamiliar to me.


The present environment is not so much a market condition as it is the lack of one.   It represents a state of suspended animation that we feel is unsustainable. 


Clearly at some point activity will need to resume, and exactly what that activity will entail both quantitatively and qualitatively seems to be the question on most people&rsquo;s minds, and I&rsquo;d like to review of some of the factors influencing its answer.


Some of these are well known, and a few have even gained mythical status as descriptions of what's happening, but like many myths, they often distort the truth.


The first is the notion that the lending market has dried up.   Unfortunately, this is an opinion that has been heavily expressed in the media.


Initially, the banks' response to the flood of bad loans was indeed to contemplate suspending all lending activity without considering a further analysis of where their vulnerabilities lay, and where viable opportunities still existed.


Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed and some proper adjustments were made by resetting the parameters used for qualifying potential borrowers. 


Not only is money available to those who qualify but it is now available at the lowest rates in over half a century, for example 30-year fixed rate mortgages are being offered for around 5% APR and we feel these rates will drop even further.


Another notion being advanced by many, including some members of the brokerage community, is that the market has dropped by 30% or some similarly disturbing number.


This MIGHT be so, but at this particular time it simply CANNOT BE KNOWN and assigning any relevancy to such numbers should take this into account.


When asked to give an appraisal, we as brokers are able to accurately render an opinion as to what a property was worth just prior to the downturn but as to what it is worth today, the data necessary to make this determination is not available or includes numbers within sample sizes too small to provide pertinent conclusions. 


What has always been a process of interpolation has been replaced by extrapolation and is subject to the errors that often accompany this second method.


Anyone who says they can tell you the value of your property without this caveat is giving you a number that has no proper foundation.   In seeking an answer, we feel it&rsquo;s best to wait to determine the most accurate valuation once sufficient data becomes available.


Regarding the future, we don't have a "crystal ball" but we do think there are some important thoughts and ideas for you to consider when formulating your own opinions.


For those of you who anticipate inflation as a descendant of deflation or as the ultimate byproduct of the solutions being presented by government economists, real estate prices have historically performed well under these conditions and have been among the first assets to adjust to the true value of the dollar. 


In addition, there has always been a tendency for real estate to assume the properties of a hard asset, which it is and like others in this category, such as gold and diamonds, it usually performs well during times of inflation and instability.


Even in the present financial context in which so many assets have lost value it&rsquo;s interesting to note that where equities have depreciated by around 50%, real estate&mdash;should it really prove to have dropped 30%--has not performed badly relatively speaking, 


This is a reality that will not go unnoticed by anyone searching for investment opportunities when the upswing occurs--and it will.


Finally, to speak to the most common inquiry we've had: "How long do you think the recovery will take?", I can give my own thoughts and a prediction. 


From what I've observed through the years and during past financial crises, there seems to be a function in place that echoes Moore's Law and the rate of development in digital technology.


To re-phrase this with a vernacular twist, "1 year is the new 3 years".   That is to say how these things evolve follows old themes, but the speed with which they do so continues to increase with each successive occurrence. 


If you feel that this particular crisis will reach Great Depression proportions, please note that the reversal of that crisis started within 5 years, and a full recovery was achieved 5 years after that.


If I'm right, our bottom should be reached approximately 20 months from early September--that being around May of 2010, and full recovery by the end of 2011.


Also, given that my statement "1 year is the new 3 years" is itself subject to the same forces it implies, these time periods may prove to be even shorter; and of course, if you think this crisis is of a lesser magnitude, even shorter than that.


I hope all is well with you and best wishes to you from all of us at Manhattan Homes during this holiday season and the coming new year.


And as always, thanks for listening."


--Leigh Zaph.  (any comments can be emailed to us at webitorials@manhattanhomesinc.com, thanks).


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