Mapping Strategy tag:typepad.com,2003:weblog-58850 2009-06-09T10:33:26-04:00 Reflections on strategic thinking, forecasting, scenario planning, and organizational resilience TypePad Economic Stress Index Interactive Graphic tag:typepad.com,2003:post-67893839 2009-06-09T10:33:26-04:00 2009-06-09T10:33:26-04:00 This is very cool... until one contemplates the human pain it chronicles. (Brown is worse; blue is better. The original on the AP site, has much, much more). Art Hutchinson 'Getting Inside the Heads' of Valued Employees tag:typepad.com,2003:post-67064655 2009-05-20T15:33:50-04:00 2009-05-20T15:33:50-04:00 This is intriguing [emphasis added]... [Google] recently began crunching data from employee reviews and promotion and pay histories in a mathematical formula Google says can identify which of its 20,000 employees are most likely to quit... The move is one of a series Google has made to prevent its most promising engineers, designers and sales executives from leaving at a... Art Hutchinson Predicting and Dealing With the Sun and Space Environment tag:typepad.com,2003:post-64990209 2009-04-02T10:35:06-04:00 2009-04-02T10:37:09-04:00 Because scientific understanding of solar phenomena is far from comprehensive, the wide range of predictions and methods used to inform this visually delightful graphic isn't all that surprising. I wonder though, whether a prediction market on the same topic would come up looking prescient... or foolish? This attempt from 2007 looks like the answer to the question, "What if they... Art Hutchinson 'Planning' in Fog at High Speed tag:typepad.com,2003:post-64552855 2009-03-24T09:59:41-04:00 2009-03-24T09:59:41-04:00 I've had a chance, the last few days (which, here in Boston are getting longer, if not any warmer) to work down a pile of reading I've meant to do for some time. Midway through that two-month stack, I found this ('Managing in the Fog'), from the February 26th, 2009 issue of The Economist. Dateline -- the fog-prone city of... Art Hutchinson Threats in the Age of Obama tag:typepad.com,2003:post-61977594 2009-01-27T12:25:43-05:00 2009-02-26T16:15:56-05:00 I'm excited to report that our new book, 'Threats in the Age of Obama' is now available for purchase -- from Amazon, as well as directly from our publisher, Nimble Books (same price; take your pick). Here's the cover: I contributed a chapter entitled "Preparing One's Mind to See" expanding on this post last fall by about an order of... Art Hutchinson Telephony Crossover Achieved: U.S. Mobile $ Exceed Residential tag:typepad.com,2003:post-61730648 2009-01-21T20:06:03-05:00 2009-01-21T20:06:03-05:00 Not exactly surprising, but it's interesting to see this validated with governmental authority: These are the kinds of crossover points we look for when developing a set of future hypothetical 'events' for modular scenario-building exercises. H/T: Right Mind Art Hutchinson The Key To Innovation? Flipper? ...or His Sister? tag:typepad.com,2003:post-60555074 2008-12-29T10:58:15-05:00 2008-12-29T10:58:15-05:00 Are females better at innovation than males (and/or, perhaps, at transferring, extending and preserving it within social groups)? Do dolphins know something about innovation that humans don't? Is it even fair to compare the two species? Or to call what they're doing 'innovation' (elevating it above the notion of simple behavioral adaptation)? Interesting questions in the Christmas Day edition of... Art Hutchinson Here Be Dragons: Mapping the Land of the Unknown Unknowns tag:typepad.com,2003:post-59355666 2008-12-19T09:33:03-05:00 2008-12-19T09:33:03-05:00 Some may be infuriated, others amused, that I begin this post on domains of uncertainty and scenario thinking with a six-year-old clip from Donald Rumsfeld. I trust sober readers will get past any emotional reactions to the messenger and hear the message itself. Ironically, his point is one of humility. (My mouse finger is hovering over the 'comment spam' button;... Art Hutchinson Thinking the Unthinkable... Before It's Thinkable tag:typepad.com,2003:post-58836004 2008-11-21T11:40:39-05:00 2008-11-21T11:40:39-05:00 In an article entitled, "Citi Weighs Its Options, Including Firm's Sale", on the front page of today's Wall Street Journal, this line stood out [emphasis added]: Citigroup officials have decided they need to reckon with a range of scenarios that were unthinkable only weeks ago. It neatly captures the essence of why it is vital for scenario thinking to be... Art Hutchinson Prediction Markets and the Election tag:typepad.com,2003:post-58178288 2008-11-07T15:42:53-05:00 2008-11-07T15:42:53-05:00 Four years ago, I grabbed some numbers off Intrade in the days leading up to the U.S. presidential election, ran some smoothing functions on them, and discovered a strong correlation with the vote in each of the fifty states (R-squared value of 0.77, and every state 'called' perfectly hours, even days before the actual voting). This year several things were... Art Hutchinson