As noted in my Novato update, it is apparent that the low end in Northern Marin has settled on a bottom: 

Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

[click HERE for the rest of the article]

Not surprisingly, inventory dropped significantly over the past month to 652 single family homes for sale (we had 762 last month). Note that this includes the Highway 101 corridor (excluding Western Marin inventory and condos).  

For a detailed executive summary similar to, but much more detailed than below, providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), contact me any time. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

 

 

Kyle Frazier, Broker Associate, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Realtor

Nonetheless, sales and activity remain choppy. There are currently 93 listings in the 94920 zip code, which covers Tiburon and Belvedere (down 16 from last month). Twenty-two of these properties are priced over $5 million. In the lower price segments, activity is moderate (3 sales under $2 million). There were 8 sales in September 2009.

Not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon). Over the past several months however, that shift has become more exaggerated as prices begin reflecting market realities. Currently, the median asking asking price in Belvedere is more than $1.25 million lower than 1 year ago. In contrast, Tiburon’s asking prices have actually increased to the point they are slightly above those of a year ago — of course, these are asking prices, not sales prices. 

For homes that sold in October 2009, the average price per square foot was $774 — far above August’s $674. Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of the major price bands:

• 20% of homes priced under $2 million (up from 19% last month);
• 22% of homes between $2 million and $3 million (up 10% from last month);
• 8% of homes between $3 million and $5 million ( down from 12% from last month);
• 4% of homes over $5 million (down from 12% from last month).

Tiburon and Belvedere homes that sold in October 2009 exhibited the following characteristics:

• Number of Sales: 8
• Average Days on Market: 121
• Price: $3,097,500
• Square Feet: 3,684 
• Price per Square Foot: $774

If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier and I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS) with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Realtors. It is always my pleasure to be of service. 

 

p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs. If you would like a copy of my Tiburon / Belvedere Hotlist, e-mail me at Kyle@ImagineMarin.com. 

Mill Valley will be first in line to benefit from this influx of local income. Meanwhile, however, the number of homes sold remains low. In October, we had just 20 home sales — virtually the same as in July, August, and September 2009. Many believe that the low number of sales is due in large part to a lack of “sexy inventory.”  And in fact, turnkey homes that are priced competitively and located in desirable areas sell FAST.  Meanwhile, homes with “challenges” in regard to location, condition, or price are simply not selling.

Sales prices seem to have gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold was $565 (home sales prices have held steady in this general price per square foot range for months now). Of course, price per square foot is an often misleading indicator as applied to individual homes for several reasons (e.g., condition, location, usable yard space, and the size of the home — the larger the home, the lower the price per square foot). Indeed, a nice home in Sycamore Park may sell for $750-$800 per square foot. It all depends on the various factors in play.

Note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is rising. It is currently approximately $620 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

Based on last month’s sales total of 20, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.3 months (slightly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.

The number of homes in escrow is up by about 11% from last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow has risen to 55% in the bottom price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is becoming very competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April 2009 when it’s low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year. Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com]

It is no secret that our current real estate environment in San Rafael favors buyers, not only because of the state of the market, but also because of superior interest rates, FHA loan availability (allowing purchase loans up to $729,000 with 3.5% down), and a shifting mindset by both buyers (who are ready to pull the trigger) and sellers (who are ready to do what it takes to sell). Meanwhile, housing inventory for single family homes fell to 135 homes (from 154 last month).

As reported this Summer, San Rafael listing prices experienced a brief rise from March to June, but that trend has reversed and resumed its downward trajectory. By comparison, asking prices in Novato have been rising for several months, leading many to believe that the bottom has formed in Novato. It does not appear this transition has fully settled in San Rafael.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com]

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.

Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many casual observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

In our New Economy, real buyers have become less numerous and have placed increased emphasis on prestige locations, views, lifestyle amenities (usable yards, proximity to clubs/shopping, etc.), schools, and sensible scale. As reported all year, the luxury segment remains weighted towards homes priced under $3 million — although 4 homes priced over $4 million sold in October 2009. First and foremost, the economy must give reason for optimism and the stock market must continue to win back gains lost over the past year. Once some of those gains are recaptured, affluent buyers will feel more comfortable with major purchases again.

Meanwhile, the media has been placing a positive spin on economic news coverage, which will hopefully result in a positive feedback loop. For example, a story run in the A.P. last week noted that economic forecasters are predicting that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy (based on a survey by the National Association for Business Economics). According to that organization, home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year and over 80 percent of economists surveyed by the NABE think the recession is over and recovery has begun. In addition, the San Francisco Chronicle ran a story last week regarding how low interest rates have spurred a modest increase in Bay Area home sales in September. Also concurring with the expectation of growth is the Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann, who predicts that sales of existing homes will rise 11 percent in 2010, with sales of new homes climbing 21 percent.

For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE. And if you would like a hyper-local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

The below graph tracks asking prices for 3 “hot” locales in Marin — Tiburon/Belvedere (they are combined here because they use the same zip code), Mill Valley, and Kentfield. Interestingly, while Belvedere continues to see asking prices drop, Kentfield and Mill Valley have seen asking prices increase over the 120 days. Of course, asking prices do not necessarily closely reflect selling prices and in Mill Valley, there are lots of homes on the market in the higher price bands, which have not sold.

Reflecting on the past twelve months, Marin County real estate markets experienced the most difficult and unpredictable dynamics. The financial markets imploded, unemployment trends accelerated and consumer confidence was shattered. And while we benefit from historically low interest rates, credit requirements, approval guidelines, and loan to value ratios are as stringent as in recent memory.

The good news is that over 1,100 single family homes have sold in Marin County in the first nine months of 2009. Successful sellers have processed market dynamics, followed their real estate advisors recommendations and successfully made housing decisions to support their lifestyle. Buyers continue to seek opportunity and will write offers only on the homes that have balanced the best pricing in relation to the relevant and recent neighborhood comparables.

Over 70% of the 1,100 single family homes sold in 2009 closed for under $1 million. Approximately 50% of these 1,100 homes closed in San Rafael or Novato. The velocity of the market under $1 million and in San Rafael and Novato may be the only growth sector in Marin County real estate. The chart below illustrates summary market trends by price point.

YTD Sep ’09 v YTD Sep ‘08

Jan 1 – Sep 30, ‘09	$500K - $1M	$1 Million and Up	$1 - $3 Million	$3 Million +
Volume	+12.15%	-50.23%	-48.05%	-56.64%
Units Sold	+12.99%	-47.18%	-46.47%	-53.62%
Average Price	-0.81%	-5.82%	-2.95%	-6.51%
Median Price	-1.89%	-2.70%	-1.06%	-21.71%
Days on Market	+25.00%	+43.66%	+49.25%	+12.00%

 

The average number of days on market has trended over 100 days for 2009. This trend is indicative of sellers’ “hoping” to get a specific price for their home — these hopes are often based on what they paid for it or what they “need” to sell it for in order to maintain lifestyle choices.

Unfortunately “days on the market” is not a seller’s friend. Homes that sell within the first 90 days of a listing enjoy pricing within 7% of the list price. Homes that sell between 90 – 120 days on the market close at a 15% discount and those over 120 days on average are discounted 22% at closing. At Morgan Lane we pride ourselves by providing our clients with balanced advice and recommendations. Indeed, our approach and counseling this year has delivered Marin County’s finest average days on market results — just 64 days.

For home prices over $1 million in Marin County, Sellers need to be exceptionally realistic and sensitive to our market conditions. Volume (units and dollars) is off approximately 50% YTD as compared with 2008 and over 60% from 2007. Buyers enjoy a fabulous selection of listings in all neighborhoods and are extremely discerning. Collectively, we are finding that buyers only act with a sense of urgency if a home is “one of a kind” (where the market sees one such home every few years or if the price is perceived to be below market value). In light of the above, days on the market analysis, why would a buyer act with urgency if time on the market generally translates into a 7% to 22% discount?

We are experiencing a modest increase in activity in the high-end of the market (over $3 million). In Q1 & Q2 2009 we closed eight and nine homes over $3 million respectively. This activity increased to 15 closings over $3 million in Q3 ’09. There are nearly 110 listings in Marin over $3 million and only 5 are in contract. Once again, a seller must be most realistic in pricing to attract "real buyers."

The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is a fraction higher than this time last year. If you would like to review a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know.

Overall inventory has dipped to 762 single family homes for sale (we had about 757 last month) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin inventory and condos). 

For a detailed executive summary similar to, but much more detailed than below, providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), contact me any time. 

Kyle Frazier, Christie’s Great Estates Marin | Morgan Lane International Real Estate at (415) 350-9440, Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

It is no secret that our current real estate environment favors buyers, not only because of the state of the market (e.g., prices back down to 2003 levels in many cases), but also because of superior interest rates, FHA loan availability (allowing purchase loans up to $729,000 with 3.5% down), and a shifting mindset by both buyers (who are ready to pull the trigger) and sellers (who are ready to do what it takes to sell).

Housing inventory for single family homes in San Rafael fell to 154 homes (from 169 last month). It is interesting to note that while San Rafael’s inventory has risen and its percentage of homes in escrow has dropped, Novato (the next city north) has experienced the opposite. In fact, in the move up market, Novato sales rates eclipse San Rafael’s by a long-shot.

As reported this Summer, San Rafael listing prices experienced a brief rise, but that trend has reversed and resumed its downward trajectory. By comparison, asking prices in Novato have been rising for several months, leading many to believe that the bottom has formed in Novato. It does not appear this phenomenon is being replicated in San Rafael.

[Click HERE for the rest of this report, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com.]