Mariner Melee

A Trade that Almost Was

2012-01-31T10:51:00.000-08:00

A bit of interesting news broke today. When the trade for Pineda & Montero went down, several GMs around the league were stunned to find out that our former, young ace was even available. Alex Anthopoulos, GM of the Toronto Blue Jays, wasn't included in the surprised category. In an interesting article today in The Globe and Mail, it was hinted that the Mariners may have tried to acquire Toronto's young third baseman, Brett Lawrie.

If you didn't already know, Lawrie is a former Zduriencik draft pick from his Milwaukee days. It would've been an attractive move for Seattle considering the Mariners' giant, gaping hole at third base. Lawrie's first major league play came in 43 games this year and he raked. .293/.337/.495, 9 home runs, a .297 ISO, and .413 wOBA. Lawrie's 2.7 WAR was better than every position player outside of Dustin Ackely on Seattle's roster last year, and he did it in only 43 games. This move would have had Mariner fans drooling, and it may even have some a little depressed that it didn't happen. Don't be.

First of all Anthopoulos apparently was never going to make this move. Second, we don't know anything about the other pieces talked about in this potential deal. Lastly, the Mariners acquired a bat that is going to play in their park. There is reason to believe Lawrie's bat wouldn't. A picture says a thousand words, so lets take a look at this chart.

Lawrie is your typical power pull guy. He is going to hit some home runs out to center and right center, but the majority of his bombs will find their way to the left field seats. If you don't think that matters, let me show you another chart.

I won't leave you guessing; the chart above belongs to Adrian Beltre, another right handed, power hitting, third baseman who had his power swallowed in SafeCo up by being a pull-only slugger. Now, Lawrie also had a decent glove, so his only value isn't going to come from his bat. But it's all sounding so familiar. Lawrie would become Adrian Beltre-like. An under valued baseball player that unintelligent fans would come to hate and the Pineda trade would come out looking like a bust for the majority of an uneducated fan base.

In order to succeed as an organization, you have to build for your park. The Mariners are doing it now, stocking up on young power arms and acquiring hitters that will play well aiming for the shorter right field porch. I'm happy with the deal the Mariners made. It is always interesting to see what other deals were explored, but if the Mariners only explored two, then they made the right deal. Montero probably isn't a catcher, but his bat is big enough not to matter. Lawrie is a true third basemen, but his bat wasn't going to play well in Seattle's confines. The Mariners traded Pineda out of a desperate need for offense, you have to believe that they made the right deal.

Good Idea...Or Terrible Idea?

2012-01-28T23:23:00.000-08:00

In none too surprising news...well, news! It's been about two weeks now since Seattle sent All-Star pitcher Michael Pineda to New York for backstop hopeful Jesus Montero. Two weeks-ish later and on the first day of Fan Fest we get this:

"I talked to him a couple minutes ago and he said he'd be next to me all the time," Olivo said. "I told him he's welcome to come and I'll help him with everything I've learned in baseball. I told him, 'The days you catch, I'll be looking at you to see what you're doing wrong. And the days you hit, maybe I'll learn something about hitting from you.' We can go back and forth."

Source Greg Johns

Hooray...

I realize it would be impossible to prevent Olivo and Montero from interacting with one another considering they play for the same team and such, but this is isn't such a great idea. Miguel Olivo is a terrible catcher. Absolutely terrible. Out of all the catchers in 2011 only four catchers ranked worse in the fielding department than Olivo. We watched our graceful catcher scramble to the backstop 11 times last year due to several unsavory passed balls. Miguel also went ahead and created 11 errors, while posting an awful Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) score of -3. He probably shouldn't be teaching anyone, let alone someone the Mariners have a vested interest in molding into a decent catcher. It's not all awful, to be somewhat fair. Olivo is in the middle of the pack as far as preventing base larceny, and pitchers don't seem to mind throwing to him, but the idea of him instructing anyone in a craft in which he himself is lacking, is still unfavorable.

I'm not convinced that Montero can catch. I'm not sure he should catch. He's huge, immobile, and doesn't protect his throwing hand. But management wants him to catch and they want him to be a respectable catcher. Seattle didn't seem to have a problem with the kind of defensive value they got out of Olivo last year, so in the end if Montero can become even a moderate upgrade, I speculate the Mariners would be okay with it. There is no guarantee that just because Olivo is a bad, Montero will turn out bad. The quality of your mentor does have some effect on how well you do at your craft, but it isn't everything. This was unavoidable; Olivo was going to take Montero under his wing. I certainly hope this goes better than I am envisioning at the moment.

But hey, those who can't do teach... right?

Spring Training with Mariner Melee

2012-01-28T12:46:00.000-08:00

Spring training is just around the bend and I'm thrilled to say that I will be attending two games in Peoria this year.

I don't own the best media equipment (my camera is a cell phone), but I'm going to see about procuring some quality gear. All media will be uploaded to this site.

If anyone has any request as far as photos and video, you can request them in the comments section of this post. My wife and I aren't exactly a media crew but we will do what we can. The media will be royalty free so you can use it as you please, I just ask that you cite that you found it here.

Thank you,

Bryant
____________________________________________________________________________

UPDATE

Request:

* Walker
* Catricala
* Gutierrez
* Liddi
* Seager

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects

2012-01-27T18:52:00.000-08:00

The list is out.

1. Jesus Montero,C

2. Taijuan Walker, RHP

3. Danny Hultzen, LHP

4. James Paxton, LHP

5. Nick Franklin, 2B/SS

6. Francisco Martinez, 3B

7. Chance Ruffin, RHP

8. Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP

9. Vinnie Catricala, 3B/1B/OF

10. Phillips Castillo,OF

The talent pool is top heavy that's for sure. The world seems pretty down Catricala seeing how he doesn't have a position, which I don't necessarily agree with. Martinez and Catricala should be in swapped in my opinion. But hey, it's a top 10 list. The numerical values after Franklin could be easily swapped around in any order and the differences would be minuet.

Considering 4 of our top 5 are near major league ready, I'll really be looking forward to this years draft.

Mariners Media Luncheon

2012-01-27T13:06:00.000-08:00

"This is going to be a challenging year at the big league level. Let's not kid ourselves."

Definitely a quote that was greeted with inquisitive stares. One thing I do love about Zduriencik: he is certainly honest...

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But he's right. 2012 could be a rough year, though at the same time, there is plenty of room for it to arouse some of those forgotten emotions such as excitement, joy, and thrill. It isn't all doom and gloom, and even though the above quote may suggest that you fasten your seat belt and brace for a bumpy ride, 2012 is going to be a fun year - a year to watch our seeds grow.

There were a lot of things said during the Mariners Media Luncheon. Some meaningful, some less than meaningful. The big theme was "Stick with the plan". Z and Co. are asking the fans not to bail. They admitted that no plan, including theirs, is fool proof, but they just want fans to stay the course. The proof is in the pudding. The organization has already started to produce talent at the Major League level.

Some Major highlights included Wedge's thoughts on moving Ichiro out of the lead off spot, and Guti's regenerated muscle. Other news included Smoak dropping pounds with Mike Carp, Saunders refocusing himself, declaration of Figgins as a super utility-man, and that Casper Wells is healthy and vertigo free. Like I said, some of it matters and some of it doesn't. All of this has to work on the diamond to mean anything.

Z may believe that next year is going to be challenging, but that doesn't mean it won't be entertaining. The Mariners have talent and it's all culminating right in front of the fans. As long as I have that, I won't find it the least bit challenging to watch.

The Top 10 Questions for 2012

2012-01-26T17:04:00.000-08:00

10. What is going to happen to Adam Moore?

A - He'll start the year in the minors. Moore has had it rough and the acquisition of Montero hasn't really made it any better for him. Unless something happens, Jaso bombs, Olivo gets traded or either Olivo or Jaso gets hurt than Moore is probably destined for the minors once again.

9. Is the roster set, or will the Mariners make another move?

A - Unless the Mariners are just completely loading the cannon for 2013, then yes, they are going to make another move. The Mariners could still use another pitcher, but I don't think they are going to go that route. I would expect another trade, although I don't have a clue with whom, because the Mariners are so tight lipped these days...

8. Will the Mariners move Chone Figgins before opening day?

A - My gut says no. I think it's going to take more than a good spring to convince another team to take on Figgins. He is a useless player right now. His defense is terrible and his bat, well, we are all familiar with his bat. I don't think it matters how much of his contract the Mariners eat, if Figgins isn't a Mariner on opening day it won't be because of a trade.

7. Will Ichiro rebound from a career worst season?

A - It's a big one and is a difficult question to answer. His .295 BABIP was a full .56 points lower than his career average suggesting he may have suffered from poor luck, but Ichiro saw slips in every offensive and defensive metric, suggesting he may just be aging. I believe Ichiro will rebound. I wouldn't expect anymore .330/.370/.420 seasons out of him these upcoming years, but I don't think we'll be seeing another .270/.310/.335 season either. Color me surprised if we don't see another 200 hits out of Ichiro in 2012.

6. What will the Bullpen look like?

A - Ah yes. Locks include Brandon League, and George Sherrill, with Chance Ruffin and Shawn Kelley being near locks. But after that it's all open. You've got Tom Wilhelmsen and Steve Delabar who are probably going to make it, and either Noesi or Furbush being in it for long relief. That makes 11 in case you're counting. The Mariners have one completely open spot, which could go to anyone, maybe someone who doesn't even pitch. I don't know if the Mariners will go with an 11 man pitching staff to start the season, but even if they do, 11 man staffs generally don't last the year. My guess is that your pen will look something like this.

CP - League
LOOGY - Sherrill
SR - Ruffin
SR - Kelly
SR - Delabar
MR - ???
LR - Wilhelmsen
LR - Furbush/Noesi

5. Can Jesus Montero catch?

A- Sure he can! He is a baseball player isn't he? Baseball players own gloves, therefore it is reasonable to believe they can catch right? In all seriousness, no he can't... not right now. But he is going to get every opportunity to prove he can. The more I think about it the less I believe Montero will stay at catcher, even if his defense drastically improves. Catching is harsh on a players body and has been known to shorten careers and drain offensive numbers. Montero is going to catch in 2012, but I doubt he does beyond this year.

4. Does Danny Hultzen make the team out of spring training?

Not anymore. Had the Mariners not recently signed Millwood I would have said yes, absolutely. It would have taken a pretty terrible spring from Hultzen to keep him from making the opening day squad. As it stands now, it's going to take a disastrous spring from Millwood in order for Hultzen to make it. From a financial and player control standpoint, this is a better plan. As long as you can squeeze the last little bit of juice out of Millwood, why not? You'll get an extra year of team control out of Hultzen.

3. Does Franklin Gutierrez's weight gain mean anything?

A - Yes! If you don't know anything about IBS then you should read up. Ever tried doing anything strenuous with diarrhea or cramping? How about trying to swing a bat with severe joint pain or swelling? IBS can be disastrous on the body and it clearly had taken it's toll on Franklin. Skills don't just crash and burn like they did in Gutierrez's case. This can't be a bad thing. Expect bigger things out of Guti in 2012.

2. Will Justin Smoak live up to expectations?

A - Yes. Well I certainly hope so. I believe in Justin Smoak's April. He had a helluva year in terms of on the field injuries, and off the field he lost his father to cancer. It's easy to turn baseball players into charts and numbers and forget that they are human, yet a number or average isn't always going to explain a problem. I haven't given up on Smoak, and neither should you.

1. Will Jesus Montero live up to the hype?

A - I already covered why Montero will likely be unfazed by the dimensions of SafeCo, but asking whether or not Montero can live up to the enormous hype attached to him is another question entirely. Montero is going to hit, but he probably isn't going to hit as well as people want (at least not in 2012). He probably isn't going to hammer 40 dingers and drive in 120 runs. So will Montero live up to the hype? I guess that depends on your expectations. Montero is going to hit, and he is going to hit well, but don't expect monster numbers from him just yet. He still has to grow.

Prince Fielder Finally Finds a Home

2012-01-24T16:07:00.000-08:00

It is January 24th, 2012 and Prince Fielder has finally found a home. It has been about as drawn out a process as a sports fan can take.

Prince Fielder is now a Tiger, not a Mariner, in a surprise twist that really didn't make any sense until Victor Martinez went and ruined his season. The Tigers are going to regret this contract sometime in the near future, and the Mariners...won't.

It'll be interesting to find out in the coming weeks just how into this the Mariners really were. There have been all sorts of various reports and rumors ranging from the Mariners being the team willing to give the most money, to the Mariners just lying in the weeds and waiting. It'll be interesting to see if we actually find out the depth of the Mariners involvement.

Anyway, I'm certainly glad it's over.

Jesus Montero & Opposite Field Home Runs

2012-01-23T21:39:00.000-08:00

The deal is done.

The Mariners finally added a young impact bat in an organization emaciated of power. The price paid is a heavy cost giving up their young, talented pitcher, but I'm not going to rehash analysis you can find all over the blog-o-sphere. If you care to know my take, it's simple, I think the Mariners needed this. There are arms that have potential to replace Pineda, but this organization does not have bats capable of doing what Montero can do. So what exactly can Montero do? Let's dive into it.

Now, Montero is right handed, coming to a park that is notorious for eating right handed power hitters alive. SafeCo averages a park factor in the mid 80's, and because of the weather and the dimensions of left field the park absolutely devours right handed power. We've witnessed it first hand, Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez, Kenji Johjima etc. These pull-happy sluggers watched balls that they demolished turn into fairly easy warning track outs. Seattle Mariner fans are all too familiar with this and might be a little concerned that their organization just gave up a future ace for a power hitter whose potential might be swallowed up by the cavernous dimensions of SafeCo Field.

If you happen to be an apprehensive fan, put yourself at ease. I can name you one certain slugging second baseman who didn't let SafeCo effect his numbers. Bret Boone made a career out of tucking line drives into the area 51 seats. He proved that if you plan to survive standing to the left of the catcher you better bring opposite field pop. Montero and Boone share a gift.

Below we have Montero's true home run landing locations.

Unfortunately, Minor League Splits has shut down and I could only get data on Montero's limited September call up. The sight is encouraging, and while we are working with a very small sample size, it's not as if Montero doesn't have a minor league track record of opposite field power. So let's add an overlay of SafeCo and see just how well Montero's bat might play in Seattle.

It's hard not to feel encouraged. Montero has a great chance to succeed even as a right handed hitter because of his opposite field power. My only cause for concern is that all three opposite field homers came in Yankee Stadium which has a large jet stream out to right field. Is it that big of a concern? That I honestly don't know, but I'd like to think it's not. The sample is tiny, but very encouraging. Montero has 80 games to play at SafeCo field in 2012, but if his opposite field power plays like it did in his limited 18 game call-up, then it shouldn't matter where he plays, Jesus Montero is going to hit the ball out.

Mariner Melee Revived

2012-01-23T20:35:00.000-08:00

I'm back.